Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 01, 2025

2025 - Ukraine On The Verge Of Defeat

In 2023 the situation in Ukraine had developed into what looked like a stalemate. But 2024 proved that bigger things had been in the making. In 2024, after taking Avdivka, the Russian forces began to deliberate and steadily move forward.

The introduction of FAB bombs, precision ammunition delivered from airplanes flying outside Ukrainian air defenses, broke the Ukrainian defense fortifications. Russian infantry, covered by ample artillery and with the help drones, infiltrated and overwhelmed Ukrainian lines. An ever increasing shortage of Ukrainian troops helped to increase the tempo of progress.

Diversion action, by Russia in the Kharkiv region and by Ukraine itself due to its attack into the Kursk region, further weakened the Ukrainian lines. A high number of casualties, unmotivated troops and a lack of heavy equipment have since diminished the Ukrainian forces. The downward spiral the Ukrainian army is currently in is likely to continue.

During the last six month the main frontline in south-east Ukraine has changed significantly.

July 1 2024

bigger

Six cities on the above July 1 map that are or were of military-logistic importance are marked with blue numbers.

The current map below is showing that these have either been captured or are in danger of immediate falling.

January 1 2025

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No. 1 in the south is Velyka Novosilka. It is currently in an operational encirclement as all major roads leading to it are under Russian control. The only supply route left is through muddy fields to the northwest. Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainian anchor of the southern front,  is likely to fall within the next two weeks.

No. 2 is Vuhledar (Ugledar) which was heavily fortified and well defended. It fell on October 1 after the Ukrainian leadership failed to support its battered defenders. As there were no further major settlements north of Vuhledar the frontline has since moved significantly further.

No. 3, Kurakhove, was the logistic center for the Ukrainian troops holding the fortified positions west of Donetsk city. It fell last night. The main danger for people living in Donetsk city has thus been removed. There is little westward of Kurakhove that can stop a rapid Russian movement beyond it.

No. 5, the city of Toretsk has dominated the Ukrainian positions along the north-west corner of the Donetsk People Republic (DPR). It has been reported that it also fell last night. No 6, Chasiv Yar, is about to follow. Yesterday Russian troops captured its main railroad station.

With the fall of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar the most fortified lines in the north east of the DPR will have been removed. The Russian forces will proceed from there to develop a westward pincer attack towards Konstantynivka.

At the center of the south to north bow spanning from No 1, Velyka Novosilka, to No 6, Chasiv Yar, lies No 4, Pokrovsk. It was and still is the central logistic point for the Ukrainian forces on the whole Donetsk frontline. As the city is heavily fortified the Russian forces will avoid to directly attack it. They instead are trying to envelope the city from the south and the west. When they manage to cut the railway and road connections between Dnipro to Pokrovsk the later will be ripe for their taking.

The only Ukrainian 'success' of the year, the incursion into the Kursk oblast of Russia, has turned into the catastrophe  that even pro-Ukrainian observers had feared. It did little to divert Russian forces from the eastern frontline but consumed many Ukrainian units and a huge share of their heavy equipment. By now the size of the initial incursion has been halved. Sudzha, the only Russian city the Ukrainians hold, will fall soon. The militarily insignificant rest of the incursion will be difficult to keep.

The incoming U.S. president Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine in a short time. However, the only way to achieve that is to concede to all the demands the Russian side has made. The western pro-war factions and the deep-state will do their best to prevent that. They still demand a maximum pressure campaign to bring Russia to its knees.

But every measure they plan to introduced has already been tried. A further increase of sanctions on Russia will only further weaken U.S. allies. There are no more 'wonder-weapons' in U.S. arsenals that Russia can not immediately counter. Russia is outproducing western weapon manufacturers in all categories.

The Ukrainian army is on the verge of falling apart. The economy of Ukraine is faltering. Its people have lost the will to fight.

As the U.S., and NATO, are likely unwilling to concede their defeat the war will have to be decided on the battle field. In 2025 the Russian forces will continue to destroy the Ukrainian army. They will proceed to take whatever is needed to guarantee Russia's strategic security.

A year from now the discussions in western countries may well be about sending their own troops to the Ukrainian frontline. But the prospect of massive losses of their own soldiers is likely to prevent their populations from agreeing to that.

The west will concede because, aside from nuclear war, it will be the only option that is left on the table.

Posted by b on January 1, 2025 at 13:51 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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When not if the Ukrainian forces collapse, the West will increase the guérilla attacks they have already begun. How will Russia react? The only hope for peace in Europe is political change especially in Germany.

Posted by: Theophilus | Jan 1 2025 14:04 utc | 1

a car has plowed into a crowd in New Orleans at least 10 dead.. its all over MSM tv.. same kind of thing happened in Germany a few days ago..


terrorism allows new lock downs..

Posted by: snake | Jan 1 2025 14:11 utc | 2

Thank God that Von der Leyen has no army at her disposal.

Posted by: j rijntjes | Jan 1 2025 14:23 utc | 3

Russias vonrabilty at preasent is the black sea acsess by sea for trade.

Turky's relationship with Russia has weakend due to the recent actions in Syria, Turky helping the west to oust Assain. That has seareous implications to Russias shipping going forward.
Conclusion.....
Expect a western led surprise attack by ukraine on the Crimea, land,sea and air.
A secound incurusion much bigger than Kursk.

They will only have less than 20 days to start this. Any longer and trump would do it, anyway.
The build up of weapons are being flown in to nato bases.

A diversion tactic being also deployed north east in ukraine.

Happy new year ?
Forget it.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2025 14:26 utc | 4

Huzzah! ( Ten and a half years )

Posted by: Ben Trovata | Jan 1 2025 14:29 utc | 5

Now we also have wait and see what Dima says about the things will going on at the front and in general ...

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 1 2025 14:40 utc | 6

From Avdiivka To Kursk: The BRUTAL Battles That Changed The War

Since the launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive to the Zaporizhzhia region in attempt to cut the Russian land bridge and isolate Crimea failed in 2023, Russia has been on a slow but steady march westward in Donetsk. The losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces in 2023 caused a mobilisation crisis toward the end of the year up until March 2024. This coupled with the blockage of US aid by Congress in America contributed to the loss of important cities like Avdiivka. By the time the new aid package was approved, the Ukrainian army was in a bad state. The Russians have cut through their defences in the Donbas and are now encircling the key logistics hub of #Pokrovsk.

Simultaneously, the Russians have more or less seized Kurakhove and have encircled Velyka Novosilka. The Russians also launched an offensive in the Kharkiv region which caused Ukraine to divert troops.

In response, the Ukrainians attempted an invasion in #Kursk, perhaps to switch the narrative as well as to hopefully divert Russian troops. These aims have failed and now they have lost half their territory. With large scale desertions and severe manpower shortages, it seems the only hope Ukraine has to survive is via a peace settlement brokered by US President Donald Trump. If that fails, Ukrainian former Commander V. Shilov, expects Russia to march all the way to the Dniper River in 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5HZdsTnbbU
What's Hidden In Plain Sight

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2025 14:45 utc | 7

From Avdiivka To Kursk: The BRUTAL Battles That Changed The War

Since the launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive to the Zaporizhzhia region in attempt to cut the Russian land bridge and isolate Crimea failed in 2023, Russia has been on a slow but steady march westward in Donetsk. The losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces in 2023 caused a mobilisation crisis toward the end of the year up until March 2024. This coupled with the blockage of US aid by Congress in America contributed to the loss of important cities like Avdiivka. By the time the new aid package was approved, the Ukrainian army was in a bad state. The Russians have cut through their defences in the Donbas and are now encircling the key logistics hub of #Pokrovsk.

Simultaneously, the Russians have more or less seized Kurakhove and have encircled Velyka Novosilka. The Russians also launched an offensive in the Kharkiv region which caused Ukraine to divert troops.

In response, the Ukrainians attempted an invasion in #Kursk, perhaps to switch the narrative as well as to hopefully divert Russian troops. These aims have failed and now they have lost half their territory. With large scale desertions and severe manpower shortages, it seems the only hope Ukraine has to survive is via a peace settlement brokered by US President Donald Trump. If that fails, Ukrainian former Commander V. Shilov, expects Russia to march all the way to the Dniper River in 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5HZdsTnbbU
What's Hidden In Plain Sight

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2025 14:45 utc | 8

Thanks for taking the time to write this article. Great summation. My own belief is that the war in Ukraine will end sometime this year. The west has nothing left to escalate with. There aren't many more sanctions that can be placed on Russia and there are no more "wonder weapons" to provide. At some point, Ukraine will be taken off of life support and will collapse rather quickly, jmho. There will be more terror attacks by Ukraine, with western complicity but all Russia has to do is keep its eyes on the prize.

Posted by: ctiger | Jan 1 2025 14:47 utc | 9

"Ukraine On The Verge Of Defeat"
You and many others have been saying this for almost three years; it has worn very thin.
Putin should have made a quick, decisive victory.

Posted by: Realist | Jan 1 2025 14:52 utc | 10

With the population of Kiev regime controlled territory dropped to 20 million or below, we can say conventionally the war has been lost by Nato and Ukraine. The remnants of the few functioning spheres of economy are being cannibalized to keep the war effort going. The main economy is now based on western bribes (also called support by western presstitutes), officials are moving their assets outside the country. The only reason for continuing war is the western money flowing to oligarchs and administrators, and nazi organizations funded by the CIA.

After what happened in Donbass for so long, will we eventually see the Lwow oblast, the true remaining capital of the nazi camp, burnt to the ground?

Will the Nato puppet regime finally lose control, initially some, then snowballing into most of the eastern and central part of the country? There will be a new government in Kiev, or perhaps Dnepropetrovsk, or Zaporozhye, eventually, to govern most of the land.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2025 14:53 utc | 11

Won't give a link but any interested can go see the 2024/5 version of the Ukraine population pyramid over at Wiki in the article titled Demographics of Ukraine. The older graphic has been featured here many times.

Comically they pretend Ukraine still has a population of 41,000,000. Only 5,000,000 are in Russian occupied (sic) areas. The pyramid still shows massive underrepresentation of persons under 30 years old and an hourglass neck for the early 20s cohort.

Those leaving are the same people who were leaving before. Where the hourglass neck was before gets closer to zero. The only young people who have any reason to stay in country are those feeding off the grift. Or those too stupid or unhealthy to pick up and move.

Those who started three years ago saying America would fight to the last Ukrainian were prescient. Kudos.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 1 2025 14:59 utc | 12

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2025 14:26 utc | 4

Expect a western led surprise attack by ukraine on the Crimea, land,sea and air.
A secound incurusion much bigger than Kursk.
——————-
I suppose you have an atomic shelter?

Posted by: scc | Jan 1 2025 15:02 utc | 13

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2025 14:26 utc | 4

##########

Don't overlook how good Russian SIGINT and HUMINT is within Ukraine.

They could be allowing the Ukrainians to mass, making it easier to destroy what men and materiel (including sheep dipped NATO troops).

In the last two days, the Western fascists had gathered several HIMARS to attack across the Dnieper. Russian drones spotted them and within minutes, they were all destroyed or disabled, killing several NATO officers.

I'm not saying that the Russians allowed the Kursk incursion, but in retrospect it was a total disaster for Zelensky, and allowed rapid gains in the East.

If you have to lose a few thousand to save millions, that's the hard choices that leaders like Putin are forced to deal with.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 15:03 utc | 14

Wouldn’t it be nice if all our difficulties could be resolved by a flick of the fingers! What a paradise would then be earth?

Posted by: Geoff | Jan 1 2025 15:06 utc | 15

Posted by: Realist | Jan 1 2025 14:52 utc | 9

##########

How?

For a "realist" you are short on specifics. Very poor communication style.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 15:06 utc | 16

Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 1 2025 14:59 utc | 11

The 20 million population was confirmed by ex Ukrainian prime minister Azarov, who said Kiev controlled pop has shrunk around that mark.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2025 15:06 utc | 17

Any optimism for a clean and clear Russian victory has been lost as far as I'm concerned. I half expected for Russia to deal with the issue swiftly. I was unaware of how deep the corruption went in the MOD. Unaware of how deep the graft and grift is all around.....on all sides......eh, Smedley.

....when Cameron arrived in Kiev and signed the 100 year treaty with the Ukraine, the jig was up.....the Brits are still eyeing Crimea....

It's a war that will never be won, by anyone. It will fester for many years to come, treaties or not.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:08 utc | 18

Posted by: Geoff | Jan 1 2025 15:06 utc | 14

########$

Paradise is earned.

I don't know about you, but I don't think that I have earned it (yet). That I exist is not reason enough to receive the greatest possible reward, particularly since I did nothing to create my existence.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 15:10 utc | 19

“The designated Ukrainian UN ambassador Andrij Melnyk is calling on Germany to massively expand arms deliveries to Ukraine. “I expect the new German government to put military aid for Ukraine on a stable footing in the coalition agreement. The future coalition should plan at least 80 billion euros for the next four years, i.e. 20 billion euros per year,” Melnyk told the Funke Mediengruppe. “That would also be a profitable investment for Germany's security. It would also be a signal of strength to Trump, to the Europeans and, above all, to Putin.”

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Posted by: paper boy | Jan 1 2025 15:11 utc | 20

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:08 utc | 17

###########

That you once thought (hoped?) that this would end swiftly was very naive.

The West has been eyeballing Russia for over a century.

It's ironic but unsurprising given how pessimistic and smarmy you come across.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 15:15 utc | 21

Posted by: paper boy | Jan 1 2025 15:11 utc | 19

Who tf is Melnyk? And what relevance do his demands have?

It's like saying I would also like a proton ion drive propulsion equipped space ship with a 5 star luxury apartment, and a selection of Latino couples (a la Noah's ark) and a $1 billion personal compensation from NASA to begin the colonization process of Mars.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 1 2025 15:16 utc | 22

There should be no more illusions by Putin or anyone else that any treaty made with the Western Empire would be made in good faith. It most assuredly will be broken post haste.

Faster than Trump can flip flop on foreign workers and h1b visas.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jan 1 2025 15:17 utc | 23

I suspect Putin may have ratcheted up the offensive to be in a position to stand on their gains should Trump be able to freeze the conflict. Putin has also moved slowly and deliberately to dispell the alarmist fears of the West and to avoid over-extending his forces. I think Russia can keep going or settle, I think they're happy to do either, and, I think they will keep that leverage to react to the vacillations of the West. This is a Jihad, not a battle, nor a war (an ongoing, unending struggle)

Posted by: Scottindallas | Jan 1 2025 15:17 utc | 24

Trump is full of air (noise), just as the US, which can only fight with other people's hands. When was the last time the US had won a war? Against Granada?

Posted by: ostro | Jan 1 2025 15:18 utc | 25

Or, that though I am the worst kind of miscreant, and have brought great sorrow to my friends and loved ones, and none at all to my enemies so far as I can tell, I am a “good” person because I am me. That is my rationale!

Posted by: Geoff | Jan 1 2025 15:22 utc | 26

LoveDonbass @ 13
Totaly agree with you.
I should of added...
Of course Russia will be already fully aware of both the situation and the time window envolved.
If it happens, the shit hits the fan big time, from all directions.
Western insanity can be relied apon, i'm sure we can all agree.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2025 15:23 utc | 27

One last push by Ukraine still possible before January 20th. Also opportunity for Russia to extend it till Dnieper. Only question will Russia connect with Transnistria

Posted by: Michael J | Jan 1 2025 15:27 utc | 28

Since joining the EU (and NATO) the population of the 3 Baltic countries, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, fell down by approx. 1 million each, that is, nearly 3 million immigrated to the EU and the West. All told, the former Soviet Baltic states now have about 6 million inhabitants. What if, Russia simply walk across Estonia, or even better, through Latvia, breaking those 3 countries into two? How many EU countries would come to fight for them? Sure, the politicians, and even the "reporters" shout a lot, but when it comes to direct fight with Russia?

Posted by: ostro | Jan 1 2025 15:28 utc | 29

[email protected] miss the memo? The last major LNG distribution point out of Russia and under 'Russian' control is now in Ukrainian hands in the Sumy region......tik tok, tik tok.....

The Kursk adventure was not about a useless power plant, not about a March to Moscow. How many pundits scratched their heads for a 'reason'? Me too. It was always about taking control of the gas distribution hub. And hold at any coast. All have been accomplished, high price payed, but they are holding on....kinda not bad for like Britkrainia's fifth or sixth army .....I forget how many Russia has to destroy to get the win.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:32 utc | 30

Hmm, okay, let's say ex-Ukraine crumbles tomorrow and all the nazis flee to Florida. The Russians could easily take their time and deliberately move quite slowly so that they can have some confidence in achieving their goals of demilitarization and denazification. It seems like they would use the chaos and anarchy of any power vacuum to their advantage and not be in any rush to fill it.

It could keep some pressure on "the west" for being an ongoing failure if abandoned or "forgotten", and also remain a trap for all kinds of nasty western TLA schemes.

So maybe not so likely to be over any time soon no matter what?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 1 2025 15:33 utc | 31

When not if the Ukrainian forces collapse, the West will increase the guérilla attacks they have already begun. How will Russia react?

Posted by: Theophilus | Jan 1 2025 14:04 utc | 1

After losing such war, the Ukrainian society will start to fight each other. Left against Right, Pro-EU against Pro-Russian, Oligarchs against the people and so on. The Ukraine will not only experience a military defeat but a collapse of moral, ideologies and ideas.

Terrorism is the least of the problems east and west will have.

Posted by: Tuk | Jan 1 2025 15:34 utc | 32

reply to 9

I don't want to be all Pollyanna on this conflict but have we analyzed the effects of slow vs fast warfare in Ukraine? I wonder if slow war is the more effective as to preventing future wars. Vietnam didn't stop the US obsession with war but now they must rely on proxy efforts or wars won very quickly (Iraq). It's as if there is a sense of 'we're not doing that again" as wars that drag on endlessly.

Will the EU learn from this mistake and agree to new security measures with Russia? Maybe. I continue to think that well designed non aggression treaties will be more practical now than at any other time in human history.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jan 1 2025 15:44 utc | 33

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:08 utc | 17
Any optimism for a clean and clear Russian victory has been lost as far as I'm concerned.
——————————-
Losing optimism supposes to have had some.
I never read any optimism in what you wrote about this conflict since the very beginning, only rants, irony and disdain towards Russia.

Posted by: scc | Jan 1 2025 15:45 utc | 34

...How many pundits scratched their heads for a 'reason'? Me too. It was always about taking control of the gas distribution hub...
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:32 utc | 29

You are not any kind of a pundit, but you should scratch your head a bit longer. This gas distribution hub is the dead end now and that has been preplanned to happen for years.
You should cry a bit, that you can do better than think.

Posted by: Rutte | Jan 1 2025 15:47 utc | 35

[email protected], silly me, I took it for granted that Russia is a Superpower, it isn't and never really was outside their small EU sphere of influence. They are a bit contained in the Donbass and outside the Ukraine at the moment......see you at the victory party......

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:47 utc | 36

Concerning the ex-Ukrainian population, do they really have the ability to sustain 20 million?

Wouldn't everything need to come from the west?

Is there really such a large amount of food and essentials heading into ex-Ukraine on a continuous basis? That many trucks and trains and airplanes?

I don't know, but I do question it.

And now it is going to get even harder since there's no more gas from the east to sponge off.

Do they still sell bananas in Kiev?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 1 2025 15:49 utc | 37

“Brink of defeat” could be nearing at least.

Several factors turning against Ukraine as reported by Simplicius, History Legends, Dima and others.

Demographics: that demographic male-female plot shows a huge hollowing out at ages of 17-27. This is due to the sharp fall in child numbers that always accompanies economic collapse, this one being the end of Soviet Union one. So as Simplicius argued, lowering recruitment age below 25 will net surprisingly few people, not because they left Ukraine but because they were never born.

https://www.blue-europe.eu/analysis-en/country-analysis/the-demographic-cost-of-the-war-in-ukraine/

This is an own goal by the west - their gleeful destruction of the USSR caused its demographic topography hollow out just when they would need it in future. Russia not so affected - volunteering 30-40somethings still more than replacing losses leading to expanding Russian army as Ukraine’s shrinks.

https://youtu.be/Tq_Qq0tlGjQ?si=6wxVZgmzAr9HlkzU

It almost looks as if Russia’s timing of the SMO took advantage of that demographic topography - or maybe just good luck. Fortune favours the brave.

So in short Ukraine’s 18-25s are fewer than their 26-29s. Who they are evidently running low on already.

Another factor is a dramatic increase by about 4-fold in the number of drones being deployed by Russia. On Military Summary and other channels you hear of more and more theaters tactically dominated by Russian drones. That weakness has apparently turned into a strength.

https://youtu.be/vnwCQOQLevc?si=A0N55-NI6-ZR46KY

So a good time for Ukraine to start thinking of winding things up. And of the zionreich west in general to at least start to consider the possibility of giving rational analysis and self interest more weight than inchoate Russophobic racist loathing, in their Ukraine decision-making.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jan 1 2025 15:52 utc | 38

Putin should have made a quick, decisive victory.

Posted by: Realist | Jan 1 2025 14:52 utc | 9

In other words from "Russia is running out of ..." to "Russia is not winning fast enough"

Posted by: w | Jan 1 2025 16:02 utc | 39

The ISW is less optimistic for Russia (of course) .

Russian forces are currently attempting to envelop Pokrovsk from the south and northeast but have thus far failed to make significant recent progress in this effort.[12] Russian forces may also at least temporarily be shifting their focus from the envelopment of Pokrovsk to making opportunistic advances due west towards the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border during a critical moment of Russia's ongoing efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 1 2025 16:05 utc | 40

Ukrainian army, just about to collapse since February 2022.

Posted by: Lolcat | Jan 1 2025 16:09 utc | 41

Gas cut off to Moldova because of their debt problems they themselves manipulated to fail.. They can get some electricity from Romania plus Transnystria has a power station that can also run on coal for limited local supplies. But to Transnystria onward gas supply is cut off.Sandhu has previously threatened to seize this power station.

Gas market volatility may become more apparent especially to Europe ....Ukraine shuts down trading info for electricity markets...Slovakia very concerned because of no more transit via Ukraine.Only medical facilities in Transnystria will be kept warm it is said no heating nor hot water for citizens.

Greece may have to pay more for gas if it rejects Russian gas for political reasons.
Turkstream is remaining gas supply for southeast Europe including Hungary .
Poland FM celebrates gas cut off ..Germany asks citizens to save gas.Chaos?

Posted by: Jo | Jan 1 2025 16:09 utc | 42

The west will concede because, aside from nuclear war, it will be the only option that is left on the table.

Rather than concession, maybe the next Western option is transferring to the next surrogate country to recur hostilities? Notably, keeping up the sanctions regime (to whose detriment, who knows). I sort of doubt real rapprochement in the next decades, let alone 2025.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Jan 1 2025 16:10 utc | 43

You can't destroy Ukraine because it's already demolished. Finian Cunningham puts Ukraine's New Year's gas-cutoff front and center in his analysis of dystopic entropy throughout Europe:

Ukraine under Zelensky has become a cesspit of corruption. Up to one million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in a futile war that was fought for Western imperialist interests to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has been a spectacular failure. Zelensky and his cronies don’t care about the Ukrainian cannon fodder. They just want the war racket to continue as long as possible, regardless of how many lives are destroyed and how many Europeans are dragged into a catastrophe.

In cutting off Russian gas to Europe, Ukraine will lose transit fees of about $ 1 billion a year paid by the Russian state-owned Gazprom company. Ukraine, like the rest of Europe, will have to source more expensive gas from the U.S. But Zelensky’s regime doesn’t care. It’s getting nicely paid off for its part in running the transnational imperialist scam.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/12/31/nato-and-kiev-regime-message-europe-happy-new-year-suckers/

Plucky Slovakia promises to retaliate by cutting off Ukraine's electric power. That Robert Fico, the legendary not half-billion dollar man! Pinching off the gas this winter will mean untold European suffering, the final nail in the coffin of EU economic plausibility. Ukraine sacrifices transport fees, hiking the grift-to-aid ratio for all "support" from now on.

Is Russia weakened by this pipeline shutoff -- so costly for its adversaries? Hard to see how. Russia's gas has not been appropriated; they can sell it to someone else, or else deploy any surplus for domestic crypto farms. The gas is the thing with basic value, not the pipeline. Ukraine and Europe poke out each other's eyes to spite their ugly faces, to initiate a very cold 2025.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 1 2025 16:11 utc | 44

Expect a western led surprise attack by ukraine on the Crimea, land,sea and air.
A secound incurusion much bigger than Kursk.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 1 2025 14:26 utc | 4

Given the behavior of Ukraine, it could be they will try another offensive effort regardless of the losses taken with the Kursk incursion. Doesn't really matter. They don't have the muscle to get it done.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 1 2025 16:18 utc | 45

The gas is the thing with basic value, not the pipeline.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 1 2025 16:11 utc | 43

A pipeline without proper maintenance (as Ukrainian authorities pilfered the funds the EU allocated to them for maintenance). The pipeline will now cease to function for good.

Do you think anybody will be so stupid to build a new pipeline for Ukraine to exploit?

Posted by: Martina | Jan 1 2025 16:21 utc | 46

Posted by: Tuk | Jan 1 2025 15:34 utc | 31

I think the intent was terrorism by the West, not so much Ukraine. The impression I get is that our subversion efforts have elements of terrorism already, thus predicting more of it is a pretty low risk. The downside for the West is that a clear loss in Ukraine could well cause other countries, including Russia, to start responding in kind. If our political leadership didn't have their collective heads shoved so far up their rear end, they would realize that the best path going forward is to start pulling in their horns a little, not attempt to escalate.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 1 2025 16:25 utc | 47

Most problems will go away if Poland gets the Russian treatment they deserve. Those Nazis in Poland are the cause and cancer of all problems in Eastern eu and the eu itself. They are the next american proxies. Cut the neck of the snake and the problem will go away.

Posted by: Zhao Mao | Jan 1 2025 16:26 utc | 48

Posted by: Jo | Jan 1 2025 16:09 utc | 41

Your analysis is wonderful; you should post more often.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 16:28 utc | 49

In hindsight I believe the Russians knew exactly what the plan against them was and decided on the SMO because it would render that western plan useless while potentially achieving at least some key objectives immediately (and they did, some not all: the labs, one nuclear station, some key positions of strength, and almost an early deal on ending the conflict).

I still believe Russia could have defeated Ukraine in a matter of days, however that approach would have enabled the western insurgency and quagmire plan to be put into action.

Somewhere (decades into the future?) there might be a sensible debate of whether such a western plan would have worked or not. I'm not sure either way but that aside the SMO seems to incur less risk and be more flexible.

Anyway I really believe it was more by choice than necessity. Issues such as graft and getting forces up to shape would still be present but they might not have been as noticeable or relevant.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 1 2025 16:29 utc | 50

Ukrainian troops are *still* in Kursk.

And Russia has been unable to secure even the Donbas after years of fighting on its own borders.

Consider the possibility your analysis is lacking some perspective.

Posted by: Jim C | Jan 1 2025 16:40 utc | 51

"Trump is full of air (noise), just as the US, which can only fight with other people's hands. When was the last time the US had won a war? Against Granada?"

Posted by: ostro | Jan 1 2025 15:18 utc | 24

In my opinion, The MIC, the Empire don't want to 'win' wars: their Modus Operandi is to keep conflicts aflame to wreck 'enemies' economy and infrastructure take no responsibility to rebuild the damaged war zone; further, it is a 'cautionary tale' for any small or middling Sovereign (see Korea, Vietnam; Iraq; Afghanistan; Granada; Libya) to 'tow the Empire's line.

When after 20 years and over a trillion dollars of treasure the Americans leave Bagram and don't bother to take their military equipment with them-tens of billions of dollars of war materiel. WTF?

I am confident the MIC/Empire made a deal that they can leave Afghanistan but must leave the equipment so they can resupply the 'lost' materiel.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 16:41 utc | 52

After the Afghanistan-debacle, Ukraine is the second piece of evidence that Macron's characterization of NATO as brain-dead was spot-on. By fooling Russia with the Minsk-Agreements and buying eight years to prepare the war, NATO was in a perfect position to surprise and overrun Russia.

They failed miserably, because, just as with the Taliban, they vastly over-estimated themselves and took the enemy for idiots. Brain-dead.

After just three years, Russia has dismantled NATO's very sophisticated defense line and, worse, exhausted NATO armories.

NATO should have known better and lead us to the second desaster in just a few years. Hopefully, someone will be able to stop them before they ratched things up a third time and start a war with China. Or should we hope for a war with China that finishes off the western imperialists once and for good?

Posted by: Marvin | Jan 1 2025 16:44 utc | 53

"One last push by Ukraine still possible before January 20th. Also opportunity for Russia to extend it till Dnieper. Only question will Russia connect with Transnistria"

Posted by: Michael J | Jan 1 2025 15:27 utc | 28

In my opinion the SMO would a strategic failure if Odessa is not taken and there is not a geographic link to Transnistria

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 16:51 utc | 54

And of course if the Euros are stupid enough to send troops for direct action, they will all be white straight males. To be culled for the savages to finish off white europe easier.

Posted by: IcyReaper | Jan 1 2025 16:54 utc | 55

More and more people are talking about the war ending in 2025, but i just dont see any of the leg work being done by the US to actually end it. They aren't even talking to the Russians, the West is still in the "negotiating with themselves" phase of the conflict, they know that the Russians are winning but they havent accepted that having lost, the West must make the concession to Russia that Russia wants, not what the West wants them to accept. For example all of this garbage about a 10 year delay in Ukraine joining NATO and EU soldiers occupying Ukraine that the US is offering. Russia went to war to prevent that very thing and they won they war, so that isnt going to happen. What will probably happen is that rather than talk to the Russians, the US and EU will keep talking to themselves and then presenting these ideas to the Public for Russia to read in the newspapers in the hopes that these increasingly delusional plans will trigger a positive response from the Russians. The Russians however will keep advancing and grinding away at the Ukrainians, probably by Aug-Sept the Russians will have collapsed all of the Ukrainian lines East of the Dnieper and Russia will be posed to cross the river and take Kiev and liberate all of Ukraine. That will trigger a panic in the US and the EU and that's when the US will actually start talking to the Russians (but the Russians will continue to advance while talks are ongoing). The talks will drag on because there is no honest desire for peace with Russia in the US and at some point in 2026 Ukraine will just collapse and we'll see a reply of Syria with Hungry, Poland, Russia and Belarus grabbing territory. Never forget that the US had 20 years to negotiate with the Taliban on a settlement for Afghanistan and the US ended up talking to itself for 20 years because their was never a desire to actually end the conflict, same thing here the US will never make an honest effort and in the end the US will just pretend the collapse never happened

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 1 2025 16:55 utc | 56

I predicted 18 months ago that the SMO will be over between November 24 and March 25; I think I was being too optimistic, we shall see.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 16:59 utc | 57

> ostro | Jan 1 2025 15:18 utc | 24

“Granada”? We witnessed the fall of Syria only moments ago, in historical terms. Before that, the same region suffered from a cycle of turnover overlapping suspiciously with Wesley Clarke’s list. In other regions, the bully has solidified and extended its control. In South America, China was driving towards the Argentina goal line until Milei intercepted a pass and ran it back the other way. Now “all of China’s infrastructure belong to us”. That’s just off the top of my dumb head.

The bully will conquer the globe if its targets ignore the bully’s wins/gameplay and/or ultimately underestimate its strength. So, don’t forget the bully’s various victories using election interference, lawfare, blockades, assassinations, diseases, 1-800-trrrsts, and well-armed proxies. Those “asset-light” victories aren’t accompanied by confetti parades and points on the sheeple-facing scoreboard but count as “wins” nonetheless to TPTB. Plus, they don’t cost the bully much blood or even treasure, since everyone else pays for it via reserve currency devaluation.

Wish it were not so. But, unfortunately, that’s how this appears to me.

Posted by: I forgot | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 58

@54

"In my opinion the SMO would a strategic failure if Odessa is not taken and there is not a geographic link to Transnistria"
I have seen this Odessa reference again and again, but how is Russia ever going to be able to hold territory west of Dnepier with Western precision weapons constantly targeting any bridges or other transportation methods (ie, boats)? Even if Russia somehow reached Odessa and the war ended, there is absolutely no chance that Ukraine will not attack those Russian forces several years later.

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 59

Ho, really glad to learn that 2023 seemed to be a dead end. But I never saw that on this blog in 2023. In 2023, this blog said that Russian will win soon.
Again now?
And in 2025? MoA will say that 2024 was a dead end?

Posted by: Darras | Jan 1 2025 17:09 utc | 60

I posted a ShadowFacts Substack that includes a section on some near-term Ukraine Scenarios:

https://open.substack.com/pub/shadowfacts/p/shadow-facts-scenarios-spotlight-a69?r=1mllls&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

I'm sure I missed some important ones, but it is some food for thought! Happy New Year to everyone at the Bar, I've learned a lot as a viewer, so I thought I would give something back that might be interesting.

Posted by: ShadowFacts | Jan 1 2025 17:11 utc | 61

Actually, it never looked like a stalemate unless you believed MSM crapola.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 1 2025 17:11 utc | 62

@54

"In my opinion the SMO would a strategic failure if Odessa is not taken and there is not a geographic link to Transnistria"
I have seen this Odessa reference again and again, but how is Russia ever going to be able to hold territory west of Dnepier with Western precision weapons constantly targeting any bridges or other transportation methods (ie, boats)? Even if Russia somehow reached Odessa and the war ended, there is absolutely no chance that Ukraine will not attack those Russian forces several years later.

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 59

I don't think taking Odessa is something Russia wants to do. But whatever Russian intentions are regarding Odessa, if they cannot take and hold territory west of the Dneipr, they will have failed: Both Kerson city and Zaporoshe city are located West of the Dniepr. Both cities now form part of the Russian Federation according to the Russian Constitution. The Russians will cross the Dniepr, no matter what Ukraine will do in a couple of years time.

Posted by: Martina | Jan 1 2025 17:12 utc | 63

@1 : the guérilla attacks

The SBU desperately needs a crew cut …. The Syrian HTS group of terrorists has joined hands with Ukraine from early March 2022 … as a result the Idlib terrorists got drone lessons and supplies in addition the electronic warfare … the blitzkrieg South towards Damascus, the Neocon pipe dream has become a reality. Just like Afghanistan, Libya and now Syria all proxy terror strongholds for the empire to crush the USSR and CPC … did a write-up on the Brzezinski doctrine, Bernard Lewis and Henry ’Scoop” Jackson … neoconservatives are conquering the Atlantic World … guaranteed Joe leaves the Ukraine behind as a terror enclave.

The New Syria military leadership have high ranking Jihadists veterans from Chechnya, al Nusra, Uyghurs, Tajiks, Turks and Jordan (think Zarqawi). Thus HTS has partnered with International Terror groups, specifically the IS Khorasan group … the SBU will fit quite well to attack Russia as the IS-K will continue their terror attacks inside Iran, Baluchistan and Afghanistan. The terror threat has multiplied a 10K fold since the speech of Brzezinski in the AfPak mountains in 1979.

Re: Kerman massacre inside Iran – Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow. Revenge will be bitter to swallow by Kyiv leadership.

Posted by: Oui | Jan 1 2025 17:15 utc | 64

In other words from "Russia is running out of ..." to "Russia is not winning fast enough"

Posted by: w | Jan 1 2025 16:02 utc | 38

"not winning fast enough", we've heard that on MoA constantly for the entire 32 months.

Putin is not going faster because
- it makes it easier to avoid fatal mistakes and unnecessary losses
- he needed time for the mobilization, raising troops from 110,000 to 1,500,000 during the SMO
- it gives Russia time to test all of their new equipment
- it gives Russia time to find out what new equipment NATO has got
- it gives Russia time to acqire, by experience, the latest military tricks, which may become a decisive factor if this becomes a direct war with NATO
- it gives the West time to think and review their policies. If nothing else, they began to drop their mantra "Ukraine is winning"
- it provides time for somebody sensible to emerge in the West - so far, we can look forward to Trump, Victor Orban, Robert Fico, Tulsi Gabbard
- there is no use going faster, since all Putin can sensibly absorb are those 4 oblasts - any additional territory means more people he is responsible for, to protect them against the Ukrainian regime
- thus, taking less territory gives Putin more flexibility in any negotiations.

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 1 2025 17:19 utc | 65

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:32 utc | 30

Ukraine turned off the tap on natural gas transfers to Europe by declining to renew the existing contract. Control of Sudzhy is irrelevant. If the contract were in place, gas would continue to flow.

I guess you didn't read the memo on that.

Cheers & Happy New Year!

Posted by: Clever Dog | Jan 1 2025 17:22 utc | 66

Actually, it never looked like a stalemate unless you believed MSM crapola.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 1 2025 17:11 utc | 62

Maybe these MSM journalists don't know the definition of stalemate? Maybe their viewers don't, either?
Western politicians certainly don't know the difference between a negotiated settlement and unconditional surrender. With Russia doing the surrendering. Of course.

Posted by: Martina | Jan 1 2025 17:25 utc | 67

Ukrainian troops are *still* in Kursk.

And Russia has been unable to secure even the Donbas after years of fighting on its own borders.

Consider the possibility your analysis is lacking some perspective.

Posted by: Jim C | Jan 1 2025 16:40 utc | 51

Perhaps you are new here, but most of us recognized a while back that Russia's strategy is to wage a war of attrition rather than one of territorial conquest. And that Ukraine is losing in that war, very badly. And many of us hope that Ukraine will surrender so that it is not compelled to fight to the last Ukrainian. Even though the US would be content with that as it hopes to wear down Russia (and cares little about Ukraine).

Posted by: Clever Dog | Jan 1 2025 17:32 utc | 68

thanks b...

chiming in on the idea of when this ends - i can't see it ending any time soon, and by that i mean in the next year - doubt it will happen...

@ Kadath | Jan 1 2025 16:55 utc | 56

i share much of your perspective kadath.. thanks for articulating all of that...

@ the naysayers, beginning with sean...

i do find it mildly entertaining that some want to regularly pan b's work, and yet they continue to read b!! that's rich irony for ya!

Posted by: james | Jan 1 2025 17:35 utc | 69

be honest, probably no one alive in 2022 would have thought not only that the war would last so long, but that the Russians would still be fighting bloody battles in the Donbas 3 years in the future. both sides and their supporters have engaged in astronomical levels of wishful thinking and rationalisation after the fact

Posted by: abel | Jan 1 2025 17:40 utc | 70

@2 They can try.

Posted by: SO | Jan 1 2025 17:41 utc | 71

@54

"In my opinion the SMO would a strategic failure if Odessa is not taken and there is not a geographic link to Transnistria"
I have seen this Odessa reference again and again, but how is Russia ever going to be able to hold territory west of Dnepier with Western precision weapons constantly targeting any bridges or other transportation methods (ie, boats)? Even if Russia somehow reached Odessa and the war ended, there is absolutely no chance that Ukraine will not attack those Russian forces several years later.

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 59

I'm not a military expert; perhaps imperator, Milites or Norwegian could comment on this issue?

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 17:49 utc | 72

I have seen this Odessa reference again and again, but how is Russia ever going to be able to hold territory west of Dnepier with Western precision weapons constantly targeting any bridges or other transportation methods (ie, boats)?
Posted by: schmoe | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 59

Well, not so much the city of Odessa, as the territory to the west of the Dnieper. Along with reaquiring a city that should sensibly be Russian, it would make Ukraine a land locked country. A good thing if it is anticiapted that conflict with the West continues.

Given the tactical difficulties of crossing the Dnieper, what I anticipate is that they will cross the river, but only after they have taken however much territory to the east of the Dnieper they intend to take. When Russia is at its strongest, Ukraine at its weakest.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 1 2025 17:56 utc | 73

Good summary. I learned lots from that and can't disagree with anything important. Thanks b.

Posted by: The Busker | Jan 1 2025 17:58 utc | 74

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 1 2025 17:56 utc | 73

------------

I'd also add constant targeting by "western precision weapons" is a meme.

They're not that numerous, precise or effective. The RF was across the river with fewer difficulties than stated now.

Being overstretched was the issue, not the logistics.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 1 2025 18:02 utc | 75

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 1 2025 15:32 utc | 30

###########

Who controls the upstream?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:07 utc | 76

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 17:49 utc | 72

########

I would prefer to hear from Norwegian. He's not a Zionist.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:08 utc | 77

Posted by: Jim C | Jan 1 2025 16:40 utc | 51
—————-
Ukrainians are still in Kursk, achieving nothing, continuously bringing fresh troops that get killed including their armour, while Russia advances in the Donbas.
That’s a sufficient reason for Russia to keep them feeding their Kursk conquest until it will not be useful anymore.

Posted by: scc | Jan 1 2025 18:13 utc | 78

*** how is Russia ever going to be able to hold territory west of Dnepier with Western precision weapons constantly targeting any bridges or other transportation methods (ie, boats)? ***

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 1 2025 17:05 utc | 59

Same way the RF holds the Kerch Straight? Present western precision weapons don't have enough punch to take down something like the Antonovsky without multiple simultaneous stikes. W
I belive Simplicious has discussed this. With RF AD bei g what it is, the amont of odinace that would need to be launched for a chance of success would cost maybe 8 figures, if it is even available. I think the same evil geniuses that put concrete ribats in the center of the small cities and town of Ukraine also designed bridges.

Posted by: frithguild | Jan 1 2025 18:14 utc | 79

"Ukraine On The Verge Of Defeat"
You and many others have been saying this for almost three years; it has worn very thin.
Putin should have made a quick, decisive victory.

Posted by: Realist | Jan 1 2025 14:52 utc | 10

You're projecting.

It's the west who've been saying for years that Russia is on the edge of defeat. Russia was running out of artillery shells, tanks, missiles and their navy was sunk. They were canabalizing washing machines for computer chips and fighting with shovels.

As I recall what I was hearing from the Russian side since 2022 was Ukraine was going to be defeated by the end of 2024 ... and that was before NATO countries sent 100 billion in weaponss Ukraines way.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 1 2025 18:15 utc | 80

In other words from "Russia is running out of ..." to "Russia is not winning fast enough"

Posted by: w | Jan 1 2025 16:02 utc | 39

#######

That was always the NAFO fallback position.

3-days to Kiev. Dishonest Nazi fan boys like Julian and Sean would promote those angles.

The thing about compulsive liars is that after some time, they become incapable of honesty, and this always trips them up because they aren't functioning in objective reality.

500,000 dead Ukrainians becomes 500,000 dead Russians.

In Zelensky's NYE speech, they showed a "new" Ukrainian missile system which is actually South Korean. Gave it a Ukrainian name too. Ghost of Kiev vibes. 😂😂😂

The wrong perception of reality yields the total Ukrainian collapse we are witnessing, and what I believe will handicap Trump's Presidency by starting off with a huge broken promise.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:17 utc | 81

The Attrition War continues, although in some respects it's also become a War of Maneuver as Russia shows its ability to attack flanks and rears of Ukraine's fortified positions, thus making such assaults far less costly for Russia while continuing to make them very expensive for Ukraine. As Russian leaders have made clear on numerous occasions as December closed, they will talk only if their interests and the roots of the conflict are taken into account; otherwise, there're no grounds for talks. And when it comes to Deep State Geopolitical Strategy, it will not be altered--the arch of instability that girds Eurasia will continue to be exploited in ways that deters Eurasia's development and growing Geopolitical power. In other words, the Ukraine conflict will continue until Russia attains its SMO goals and the colony of Ukraine capitulates. That might not occur until 2027 because of Russia's mode of assault, although its pace is quickening. The only tools Ukraine has in abundance are drones, but they can't hold ground and defend urban areas. Yes, there continue to be sectors where Ukie troops are mounting stiff resistance, but that just plays into the attritional nature of Russia's strategy--for example, 10 brigades are deployed to defend a small city, but by the time they retreat only 2-3 brigades of total manpower remain to fallback and defend the next village. What remnants will survive to retreat from Toretsk and Chasov Yar or Pokrovsk after its mini-siege? Those who've watched the LOC movements over the last six months will have seen caldron after caldron form and then get extinguished. That's the direct result of the Ukie orders to hold until defeated--there's no attempt made to husband troops and the troops are more aware of that now than ever before as mass desertions prove. But the lives of Ukie troops matter not to the Deep State as it will continue to demand that Russia be weakened. There will be no agreeing to Russia's terms until the situation is 100% forced by Russia's military victory. How will Trump act when he's told no by his bosses?

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 1 2025 18:20 utc | 82

A year from now the discussions in western countries may well be about sending their own troops to the Ukrainian frontline. But the prospect of massive losses of their own soldiers is likely to prevent their populations from agreeing to that.

The west will concede because, aside from nuclear war, it will be the only option that is left on the table.

Posted by b on January 1, 2025 at 13:51 UTC | Permalink


Happy new year B.

I think that nato boots on the ground is not something for next year. It is already the current conundrum.

This war has been far deadlier than even the higher numbers discussed elsewhere. Trump’s comment about the deadliest carnage since WWII was not a Trump dumb comment, he just let it slip because he was truly horrified of what had come to be in the Biden regency.

As a reminder, Korea war had over 2.5 million military casualties. The SMO is likely on the 3.5 mark right now (and a 5X+ ratio against AFU)

The whole SMO had one dangerous moment for RF , just as the 2022 counter offensive forced the RF to reduce LOC and choose a mobilization , but ever since Bakhmut, where RF did what AFU failed in Kursk, RF has been able to choose when and where to fight to their advantage.

The summer of 2023 proved to be a slight case of overbombing as the defenses prepared could have take an attack a magnitude bigger.


2024 breached the fortresses as you well mentioned. And Kursk , accounting for 7% casualties but 70% equipment losses of the year, the dumbest of dumb attacks.

Now RF has free rein behind AFU defense lines. How they’ll use it, once they restart in earnest (December was clearly a “Xmas break”) will probably take them to the dniepr, only question is by what route.

2024 was a very bad year for the AFU, 2025 … the AFU seriously risks not seeing its end.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 1 2025 18:22 utc | 83

RE: “If you have to lose a few thousand to save millions, that's the hard choices that leaders like Putin are forced to deal with.”

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 15:03 utc | 14

Putin never said, nor indicated such a noxious and idiotic statement.
It’s your Western mind: “It was worth it”…
“We stopped millions from dying in WW2 by dropping atomic bombs”…

Putin never indicated that kind of “hard choice”. You just made it up. He had no “choice”, the aggressor was on his porch.

Your Western mind has zero idea a what Putins (Russian) considerations are.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 1 2025 18:24 utc | 84

*** The wrong perception of reality yields the total Ukrainian collapse we are witnessing, and what I believe will handicap Trump's Presidency by starting off with a huge broken promise.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:17 utc | 81

It won't matter - this will get no political traction because most will see this not as a promise but as just "Trump being Trump." I don't know the polling but other issues likely have a much higher priority for Americans than Ukraine ceasefire.

Posted by: frithguild | Jan 1 2025 18:26 utc | 85

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 1 2025 18:24 utc | 85

#################

Putin didn't say it but leaders during wartime on their borders have to deal with it.

I cannot read Putin's mind. Neither can you.

All we can do is infer from circumstances.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:34 utc | 86

@Geoff | Jan 1 2025 15:06 utc | 15

Wouldn’t it be nice if all our difficulties could be resolved by a flick of the fingers! What a paradise would then be earth?

Yep, sure and why not: then we'd all be non existent with just a few snap/flick of the fingers from within the multitudes. Brilliant, I like!

Posted by: majoab | Jan 1 2025 18:37 utc | 87

Posted by: frithguild | Jan 1 2025 18:26 utc | 86

################

In the Empire of Lies, nothing matters. America is in a post-truth paradigm.

Failure will undermine Trump's credibility in those EU countries on the fringe like Hungary and Slovakia. They are expecting Trump to make something happen, and he is between a rock and a hard place where he could satisfy Russia but his entire Cabinet and most of the Republican Congress will disapprove.

Based on his first term, Trump didn't go against Congress. He plays with and teases them, but he doesn't go to battle where there is a winner and a loser.

Trump has scant supporters in Europe. Hungary and Slovakia are the best of them—the most loyal and committed if he makes Fico and Orban look bad at home by not being able to deliver on promises, which hurts his allies, and undermines his ability to do anything diplomatically with Europe.

Which is good for Russia and makes me happy because I am on the side of the ROW and not the oppressors in the Colonial powers.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:40 utc | 88

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 1 2025 17:19 utc | 65

Would agree with most of what you said, learning , growth and improvement time.

When I remember the chaotic mess of RF comms at the start of the SMO…

And yes, 1.000.000 recruitments later the RF army grew from 1.000.000 to 1.500.000.

Now there is one point that I would not agree, the 4 oblasts was a summer offer, this is winter , this is +30% casualties later, and before this ends maybe as many once again. Sign now and lose just Kharkiv , wait for spring and it could be Mykolaiv and Odessa . Blood was paid, the pound of flesh gets heavier.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 1 2025 18:41 utc | 89

The only way this war will end sooner rather than later or in a mushroom cloud is to end the MSMs fascination with Zelenskyy. Once this greedy, criminal clown stops playing penis piano the whole thing will collapse. I just cannot understand how this thing was manipulated but it goes back a long way. This month's Le Monde Diplomatique (not to be confused with the demented, neo-con daily with a similar name) compares the trial and legalities of the trials of Radovan Karadziç and his General Mladic with the accusations against Binyamin Netanyahu and his assorted friends in genocide. (and the members of the Biden administration?) It is worth the read for those who read in French.

Posted by: Stierlitz | Jan 1 2025 18:45 utc | 90

A year from now the discussions in western countries may well be about sending their own troops to the Ukrainian frontline.

A year from now? How would Ukraine still be fighting a year from now without Pokrovsk? Pokrovsk is already their last stand in Donbass. Beyond that there are no Ukie defenses up to the Dniepr.

Ukraine cannot fight by the Dniepr. That means fighting outside Zaporozhiye and Kiev, which they won't do. The big fight was in the extremely heavily populated Donbass, with all its little villages where you could only move slowly from one to the other, and that will soon be over.

Posted by: Tenet | Jan 1 2025 18:51 utc | 91

@ ostro 29
"What if, Russia simply walk across Estonia, or even better, through Latvia, breaking those 3 countries into two?"

Estonia seems the least likely of the 3 Baltic limitrophes to see the Russian army. That's because, AFAIK, Estonia has not broken any treaties with Russia and I think Russian speakers have not had their rights taken away, so there is no R2P.
But Lithuania did break the treaty which re-established that little nation after WW2. Lithuania promised the USSR - with Russia as the successor state - that access to Kaliningrad would not be molested. But traffic was blocked and the treaty was egregiously violated for several weeks in 2023, so now Russia can simply say that treaty is void and therefore Lithuania is once again part of Russia. In Latvia, the causus belli is R2P Russian speakers, something which the UN has constantly failed to protect.

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think the limitrophes will not last until the end of the 21st Century.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Jan 1 2025 18:53 utc | 92

All is depend on what will happen in the first 3 month after Trump/Musk take office. IF they hunt down the DC swamp, 404 will vanish.
Poland, Hungary and perhaps a few more will get their portions of what ist left of 404 in the west.
But if T/M fails to do decive strikes, every thing on this planet will go down the pipes. The swamp has to be destroyed quickly, otherwise it will launch a nuclear false flag to avoid peace. Peace is the dead of all those creatures of satan and the night.

404 is only a figure on the chessboard. but what is valuable: Russia has so far learned a lot of western weapons, it had cleaned up their own staff off the traitors und their MIC has developed weapons the west hasn`t and could not intercept. That is important, but not the victory over the western swamp. That task is T/M `s one.

What else?

Romanian "colour revolution" had failed. Over and out.
Moldavia is on the brink of fall apard due gas shortages. The Transnistria cause is open.
France is near to a state default, Macron (WEF) will have Napoleon`s fate. Half of France`s nuclear power plants are down due they are worn by time and use, and moreover, cheap Uran is not longer avaiable due US`led african revolution throwing out the frogs.
Germany-led by a crazy WEF-linked political/media-class - will soon be down to it knees (what soros wants desperately before he will pass away) and therefore, the EU will broke down.
Imagine, what if T/M make peace with Russia and discard 404, leaving the cost to the "urps". All the EU-media and the whole political system will freak out and than break down. EVERY single day they treated their inhibitants with warmongering, russian-hatred and climate catastrophes, migration on an affordable scale....and so on. They have no Plan B, as Nuland had have none. They will have to run.

Posted by: ableman | Jan 1 2025 18:54 utc | 93

In my opinion the SMO would a strategic failure if Odessa is not taken and there is not a geographic link to Transnistria
Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2025 16:51 utc | 54

I would be disappointed if Russia failed to take Odessa and establish a land connection to Transnistria. If it leaves Odessa to a rump Ukrainian regime it will never be safe from attack, especially on Crimea, and it will leave the movement of arms via Romania effectively uncontrolled.

The war is winding up. Looking at the history of US proxy wars (which is almost all of them) unless it can achieve a resounding win easily, it abandons the field until circumstances favour a new initiative. Hence Cuba, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan among others. It did not win in Syria, it simply collaborated as a potential beneficiary. That too may play out differently to expectation if Al Jolani is insufficiently tractable. (Reports from Bealey et al suggest that headchoppers will be headchoppers.)

Biden is engaging in the Ukrainian "big push" which should remind us all of Vietnam, a conflict from which the US has repeatedly failed to learn. "The publication of the Afghanistan Papers by the Washington Post in December 2019 showed that the US lacked realistic objectives and a clear exit strategy in Afghanistan. They also revealed another sad parallel between the two conflicts [Vietnam/Afghanistan]. Military and government officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations deliberately misrepresented conditions in Afghanistan to appease an American public opinion suffering from war fatigue." https://theconversation.com/vietnam-war-how-us-involvement-has-influenced-foreign-policy-decisions-over-50-years-194951

If that sounds familiar, it should. The US will attempt to salvage something from its Ukrainian investment, but the benefit to the US has less to do with winning than with the vast movement of tax dollars from taxpayers in US and EU to the MIC, and with the chance to disrupt any signs of competitiveness in its EU vassals. The EU is in recession, Germany has been decimated as an industrial state, and cheap energy is semi-permanently unavailable across the sub-sontinent.

The problem for the US is that if the EU is rendered uncompetitive to avoid jeopardy to US exports, then the collective West becomes uncompetitive compared to the developing industrial states of China, Russia and India. The more US Wolfowitz policy succeeds, the worse its outcomes for the West including the US.

Trump will attempt salvage but he has, in fact, won significantly in the economic medium term. Not as much as he would if the US could seize both Ukrainian and Russian assets, but enough to declare "mission accomplished".

Posted by: Tom Paine | Jan 1 2025 18:55 utc | 94

In the Empire of Lies, nothing matters. America is in a post-truth paradigm.
***

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 1 2025 18:40 utc | 89

I'm not disagreeing. Reality is engineered by algorythm and manipulation. That little attention is paid to a war where 7 figures with oh human beings have perished conclusively proves there is evil on Earth.

I still think Trump will package however this ends as a real estate deal that benefits Hungary and tangentially Slovakia. After all, he is throwing out feelers to buy Greenland and the Prarie provinces of Canada (they have alot more in common with the US than Quebec or Ottowa - which is where their money goes to prop up what has become an extraordinarily illiberal system).

Posted by: frithguild | Jan 1 2025 18:56 utc | 95

@2

So is it a whitey or a terrorist?

Posted by: J99 | Jan 1 2025 18:57 utc | 96

so now Russia can simply say that treaty is void and therefore Lithuania is once again part of Russia

_____

Except that the last time Lithuania was part of Russia the calendar read 1918. I don’t think that counts.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 1 2025 18:57 utc | 97

"sub-continent", not "sun-sontinent".

Posted by: Tom Paine | Jan 1 2025 18:58 utc | 98

@ LoveDonbass 81
"The wrong perception of reality yields the total Ukrainian collapse we are witnessing, and what I believe will handicap Trump's Presidency by starting off with a huge broken promise."

@ frithguild 86
"It won't matter - this will get no political traction because most will see this not as a promise but as just "Trump being Trump." I don't know the polling but other issues likely have a much higher priority for Americans than Ukraine ceasefire."

Fruthguild, you are missing the most important reason for Trump to disengage in the Ukraine. If Trump doesn't stop it, then the economic and political and military costs will keep Trump from having success with his other goals. It's understanding this hard reality, not armchair absolutism, to say that ending the Ukraine disaster - or failing to end it - will be a make or break moment for Trump and his agenda. I'm pretty sure Trump has run the numbers and drawn the correct conclusion. The real question is how much power the deep state has over him. All bets are off.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Jan 1 2025 19:01 utc | 99

After all, he is throwing out feelers to buy Greenland and the Prarie provinces of Canada
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 1 2025 18:56 utc | 96

As a good marketer Trump offers to buy everything in the world to see if there are any potential deals to be had. The possibility of Manitoba or Saskatchewan seceeding from Canada is unlikely to be tempting. Canada's economy is more stable than the US, despite a weak and incompetent PM, and joining the US Rustbelt seems wildly unattractive. It reminds me of De Gaulle encouraging Quebec sesession. Just power politics.

Posted by: Tom Paine | Jan 1 2025 19:06 utc | 100

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