Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 30, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-020

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

I hope Trump does not attempt to end the war in Ukraine because a settlement does not seem possible. Besides it would be interesting to see just how Far west Russia might move its Western borders..
Ukraine is and has been a major cause of inflation experienced by USA governed America.. Americans voted for a 1 day resolution of the war.. but if that is too much trouble. maybe the USA should not bother to settle anything instead the USA likely should just get the hell out of Ukraine and leave it and its allies alone.. for ever..

Posted by: snake | Jan 31 2025 17:35 utc | 101

I hope Trump does not attempt to end the war in Ukraine because a settlement does not seem possible. Besides it would be interesting to see just how Far west Russia might move its Western borders..
Ukraine is and has been a major cause of inflation experienced by USA governed America.. Americans voted for a 1 day resolution of the war.. but if that is too much trouble. maybe the USA should not bother to settle anything instead the USA likely should just get the hell out of Ukraine and leave it and its allies alone.. for ever..

Posted by: snake | Jan 31 2025 17:35 utc | 102

I’m sure sacrificing thousands of healthy young men to get ‘millions’ of babushkas would demographically help Russia.
Seriously, I’ve been reading this website for a few years and some of comments are really out of touch with reality.

Posted by: Martay | Jan 31 2025 17:48 utc | 103

Peace Negotiations
Russia has four main adversaries and multiple minor adversaries in their war with Ukraine.
Main Adversaries
1. Ukraine
2. United States
3. NATO
4. EU
Minor Adversaries
Each individual member country of NATO and the EU.
How Russia MIGHT Deal with Each Adversary
The United States and Ukraine are Russia’s two most dangerous opponents. However, Ukraine will only remain dangerous as long as the United States supports it. This applies to NATO as well. If the United States removes its support for Ukraine, NATO lacks both the will and ability to provide effective support to Ukraine.
I suspect Russia sees the new Trump Administration to be a window of opportunity to remove the United States from the battlefield, and with it NATO. Ukraine’s loss of support from the United States / NATO will lead to its rapid collapse.
If that happens, the EU may continue the conflict at political, informational, and economic levels, but their decision to sanction Russia and cut diplomatic and economic ties means there just is not that much the EU can do now. They gave Russia their best shot, and Russia has shrugged it off.
Finally, by prolonging the conflict, Russia has allowed hidden and maybe festering animosities in Europe to grow. You can see this in the split between Hungary and the rest of Europe / EU, as well as the growing split between Slovakia and the EU as well as the now emerging split between the EU and Austria regarding Russian gas transiting Ukraine. You could even add the rising tensions between the United States and fellow NATO member Denmark over Greenland. On that thought, did any of you think it hilarious that Denmark begged Russia to help Denmark fight the U.S.?
With all this said, Russia might:
1. Negotiate a peace treaty with only the United States – ignoring every other organization / country. The Russians have been insisting, both publicly as well as at the U.N. that the ATACMS strikes into Russia was a declaration of war by the United States against Russia. Therefore, the United States and Russia are currently at war. The Russians have muted their response, probably waiting for the Trump Administration to come into office. Now the Trump Administration has made noises about meeting with the Russians, I suspect the Russians will begin make their demands known. These could include the U.S. withdrawal from NATO, the closing down of U.S. installations in Europe, monetary compensations to Russian individuals and corporations damaged by U.S. sanctions, extradition of U.S. citizens involved in attacks on Russians to Russia for trial, etc. Obviously, I don’t know what the Russians might demand. I also have no idea what they would settle for. However, I am sure permanent removal of support for Ukraine, moving U.S. forces back from eastern Europe and at least a few extraditions will be minimum for a treaty.
2. If the Trump Administration refuses to negotiate for a peace treaty with Russia, things get unpredictable. Like I already wrote, despite knowing they are at war with the United States, Russia has waited for the Trump Administration to see if they would like to end the war. If the Trump administration refuses, Russia may begin open operations against the U.S. I’ve got to admit, I feel like we are in a period similar to the 1939-1940 Link to Wikileaks which ended with the German invasion of France.
3. If the Russians manage to get the United States to end its war with Russia, that will lead to the collapse of the Ukraine. The Russians could then dictate whatever terms they want.
4. Finally, the withdrawal of support for Ukraine by the U.S. will lead to divisions and animosity in NATO / EU / Europe. I suspect Russia will then use diplomacy to peel countries such as Hungary and Slovakia away from Europe. This could eventually lead to them leaving NATO, the EU, or both.
One Last Thought
The only reason all of this is possible is because Russia slow rolled the SMO. I know a lot of commenters here think the Russians are weak because they are dragging this war out. Short wars fire the imagination of amateur war aficionados, but long wars are where the real changes in international relations happen. By taking their time, the Russians have allowed divisions among their opponents to fester and slowly begin to drive them apart. It will be fascinating to watch how this is all going to play out.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Jan 31 2025 18:35 utc | 104

The Armed Forces of Ukraine greatly expanded the number of brigades between 2023 and 2024. A decision that led many to question the competence of the General Staff due to the chronic lack of soldiers in the majority of Ukrainian battalions sitting on the contact line. Especially after the debacle of the French-trained 155th Mechanized Brigade.
0:00 Introduction
4:12 Ukraine’s shortage of manpower
5:19 AFU expands creation of new brigades
8:13 Problems – too many new brigades
12:44 Response by Ukraine’s General Staff
15:53 Complete collapse of Ukrainian brigades
19:58 Conclusion & Improvements for Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cdbyfmOn8Y

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 18:50 utc | 105

What if… domestic and EU pressure proves too great, and prevents Trump making a deal, and Trump comes home empty handed…
And Europe decides to send more long range missiles to Ukraine, which they shoot deep into Russia…
And Russia responds by shooting missiles at the source country, and that country complains to the US…
And Trump says “I looked at article 5, and it says ‘NATO countries must respond in whatever way they see fit’ and the United States is responding by saying ‘we choose peace. You’re on your own.’”

Posted by: Featherless | Jan 31 2025 19:04 utc | 106

Posted by: Nobody Special | Jan 31 2025 18:35 utc | 105
Putin has said nothing new under the sun. They are ready to negotiate, like they were in November 2021, February 2022, April 2022, August 2023, 2024 and 2025.
The population controlled by Kiev is well below 20 million, with massive flows outward continuing and young students put to the combat line. Majority of western mercs have fled/deserted, even Columbians began leaving now despite the high pay.
I think Trump has caused disruptions to Ukraine left and right and it will show as increased casualties and lost territory over coming weeks. EU can’t replace USA, they’re lilliputians.
Regarding the EU, Trump is already ignoring EU and froze contacts. Trump admin now only deals with countries in EU individually. Slovakia and Hungary will be the pioneers leading dissolution of EU. Right now Slovakia has a rat problem, hopefully they kick out the Ukrainian diaspora which is causing problems. Either way the Empire will be making its move soon, be it direct Nato military coups in these countries or invading Belarus. Or alternatively they will whimper away and die.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 19:09 utc | 107

@ Featherless, §107:
EU pressure on Trump is, effectively, zero.
Domestic pressure, in the matter of Ukraine, comes from Rubio & Kellogg, both Swamp reptiles. Trump should replace them with Macgregor & Flynn.
EU hasn´t any more missiles to send, nor the satellites to guide them.
Trump should do as he said and end the war promptly: it´s lost already anyway, so he´d get the kudos for formally making peace.

Posted by: John Marks | Jan 31 2025 19:11 utc | 108

EU pressure on Trump is, effectively, zero.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 31 2025 19:11 utc | 109

The EU is the 4th largest trading partner of the USA, making it the 4th biggest sink for absorbing US debt. The daily trading volume of Eurodollar contracts is ~$150B.
I could be wrong but I don’t think $150B/day is zero.
But sure, Trump should knock over that Jenga tower too.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 31 2025 19:36 utc | 109

Posted by: too scents | Jan 31 2025 19:36 utc | 110
The EU already abandoned other sources of energy and raw materials and is completely reliant on USA. They couldn’t do anything if Trump went to EU commission and rammed a 10 foot (3 metre) pole up each of their a$$ individually. The Euro and Eurozone are toast, the way I see it. There is no way to reverse the decline which will go to its end.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 19:41 utc | 110

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 31 2025 2:01 utc | 54
##############
The problem for people who frame things in the context of the past is that they are unlikely to discover or realize anything novel.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 31 2025 19:43 utc | 111

There is no way to reverse the decline which will go to its end.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 19:41 utc | 111

I believe the term pundits like to use is “soft landing”.
The marriage of the European Union and the United States is bound with a suicide pact.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 31 2025 19:48 utc | 112

@ too scents, §110:
So the EU will be left holding the bag?
Don´t think Donnie will worry about that.
He´ll just tell them “You made a bad deal.”

Posted by: John Marks | Jan 31 2025 20:28 utc | 113

Russian population decreased in 2024, by the way.

Posted by: Ventraille | Jan 31 2025 20:35 utc | 114

So the EU will be left holding the bag?
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 31 2025 20:28 utc | 114

No! The problem occurs when the EU is no longer able to hold the bag.
Trump’s promised policies trigger that problem.
Who is gonna hold America’s bags? That is the riddle Trump must answer.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 31 2025 20:35 utc | 115

@ Ventraille
Yeah, Russia definitely not inflating their numbers with international riffraff.

Posted by: Featherless | Jan 31 2025 20:47 utc | 116

New batch of sockpuppet nicknames. Someone’s doing unpaid overtime. My heart goes out to you.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 31 2025 20:58 utc | 117

Ventraille | Jan 31 2025 20:35 utc | 115
https://unn.ua/en/news/in-2024-mortality-decreased-but-still-almost-tripled-the-birth-rate-data-from-the-ministry-of-justice
So official Ukrainian stats on 2024 births are out & births fell by another 5.7% last year to sub 180,000 (176,679 to be exact). Better than numbers from January to June which showed a 9.4% decline in births but still bad. Hard to see postwar bump making up for all lost births. So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 31 2025 21:13 utc | 118

@ YetAnotherAnon
I think she was comparing Russia to the EU, where the population growth is robust and hearty.

Posted by: Featherless | Jan 31 2025 21:24 utc | 119

Posted by: Featherless | Jan 31 2025 21:24 utc | 120
I dont consider the immigrant invasion robust and hearty.

Posted by: alek_a | Jan 31 2025 21:27 utc | 120

The EU population increase will be the death of those countries, because it’s not organic. Not Europeans having the kids.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 31 2025 21:34 utc | 121

Russia’s demographics were looking bad before the war….and are looking horrible 3 years into the war. They will need to import millions of immigrants to take over jobs vacated by retirements and deaths. Putin destroyed Russia and he won’t live long enough to see it happen.
Posted by: Cager | Jan 31 2025 15:54 utc | 96
🆆🅷🅰🆃 🅰 🅻🅾🅰🅳 🅾🅵 🅱🅾🅻🅻🅾🆇❗

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 31 2025 21:41 utc | 122

@ alek_a | Jan 31 2025 21:27 utc | 121
Yes, I should’ve added a 😹
I’ve been hanging around too long on imgur, where you can only say something like sincerely 😹
no worries, they’ll be banning me again soon 😹
I tried informing them on the true aspects of the Ukraine thing, but they’re surprisingly recalcitrant, so I’ve decided to troll them now, which isn’t easy to do without getting banned, cause they have a hair trigger for their sacred cows 🐄🐄🐄

Posted by: Featherless | Jan 31 2025 22:10 utc | 123

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 31 2025 21:41 utc | 123
Nothing secret about the low Russian TFR before the war. Putin has spoken about it. Russia has implemented polices to try to reverse it.
Do you think it has gotten better since the war started?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 31 2025 23:27 utc | 124

@Ed4
Apparently many Ukrainians have emigrated to Russia since the beginning of the SMO. Probably more than there are Russian military deaths. As for the quality, presumably the ones that went East are sympathetic to Russia, so probably better than the ones that went West.

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 0:44 utc | 125

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 31 2025 23:27 utc | 125
“Putin destroyed Russia”…?????

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 1 2025 0:48 utc | 126

Dima report: Slowly but surely Ulakly-Konstantinypyil valley is being cleared of AFU. All supply traffic is being disrupted in this narrow strip of AFU controlled villages.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 1 2025 0:57 utc | 127

RUAF is pounding the AFU positions with drones and artillery in Andryivka, which is the north/central neck of the Ulakly cauldron.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 1 2025 1:01 utc | 128

@Nobody Special | Fri, 31 Jan 2025 18:35:00 GMT | 105

Russia has four main adversaries and multiple minor adversaries in their war with Ukraine.

Russia has one main adversary – the United States. The only (semi) peer competitor that opposes Russia. Without the US there is no NATO, and the EU or Ukraine cannot stand against Russia on their own.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 1 2025 1:31 utc | 129

Subjectively it has been an exceptionally warm autumn and winter and in three months it is spring. Earlier if it stays this warm.
On the other hand I’m not sure how much precipitation there has been in ex-Ukraine.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 1 2025 2:50 utc | 130

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 31 2025 2:01 utc | 54
##############
The problem for people who frame things in the context of the past is that they are unlikely to discover or realize anything novel.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 31 2025 19:43 utc | 112
I mentioned what I thought I could see as a good move, mentioned that milte’s comment could be understood as a chernikov/kiev drive.
But as I have been repeating over and over, so many good oportunities for RF. Not me to know the details or choices.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 1 2025 3:05 utc | 131

Apparently the ground isn’t frozen these days, so it’s REALLY muddy. So not much tanks and vehicles moving around, and walking is a great way to lose your boots.

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 3:07 utc | 132

So not much tanks and vehicles moving around, and walking is a great way to lose your boots.
Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 3:07 utc | 133

Bunch of NAFOs on X talking about how many non-mil vehicles being used by RF in their latest advances. They keep seeing this as a sign that “Russia’s running out of {everything}”. They never consider that the RF is using whatever best suits the circumstances — weather, terrain, drone threat level, etc. — at the moment.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 3:19 utc | 133

General Early-Spring defeating the Fiendish Moskals !

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 4:08 utc | 134

“Tulsi is potentially a fascist (it’s hard to be an imperialist otherwise) but she’s intelligent and well spoken.”
Posted by: fnord | Jan 30 2025 17:54 utc | 10
“If you think Tulsi is a fascist then you ARE one of the dumb fucks.”
Posted by: Screwdriver | Jan 31 2025 4:44 utc | 58
“Hmmmm, a pretty thin line these days between a fascist, a fervent US patriot, a US imperialist, a MAGA zealot, a militarist.”
Posted by: Just a Voice | Jan 31 2025 9:07 utc | 66
Would someone please explain what everyone means by the term “fascist”!
Here’s the Merriam Webster definition:
“Fascism : a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition.”
Is fnord saying that Tulsi wants to limit individual rights and create a government with irresistible economic and social control to achieve a powerful, racist pure super nation? Or is he just saying “I don’t like Tulsi because she’s working for the scary Orange Man”? Please tell me what makes Tulsi fascist! Thanks.

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 1 2025 5:11 utc | 135

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 1 2025 5:11 utc | 136
The term “fascist” inasmuch as how it’s used by 98% of people under the age of 40 and about 60% of people over is virtually meaningless. I think we all know what the traditional and original definition is.
I can say that Tulsi is a Hindutva (Hindu supremist cult-indoctrinated level) extremist to the extent that any American let alone member of the armed forces can be.
https://www.hindutvawatch.org/tulsi-gabbard-and-her-hindutva-connection/
While I’m no expert (not even close) on India politics or socioeconomics, what I do know is that Hindu extremists idolize Zionists, hate and want to eradicate Islam, and have no troubles with the full integration of state capitalist power to ensure the perpetuation of a quasi-caste and religio-supremacist system, in India and whatever territories they feel entitled to own at least.
So all I can say is that this isn’t the sign of a person who would not be prone to embracing actual fascism -and- that I’m disappointed with her refusal to call Edward Snowden a hero (which he is – and if we’re truly in a new era why not fuckin’ say that) even if she did resist denigrating him openly.
My unasked for $0.02

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 1 2025 5:23 utc | 136

Except for the very recent nuclear fuel export ban to US, which will probably take years to have an effect or zero due to large stocks, they continue to sell everything and anything Nato wants, directly on dollars and euros or thru India, currently EU’s largest “partner”. What makes you think RF won’t sell again the day NS is fixed?
Posted by: rk | Jan 31 2025 10:39 utc | 69
If the EU buys Russian gas at the same price the EU pays for US gas, fine.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 1 2025 5:45 utc | 137

Mark Sleboda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyUAU-HIoM0
“Is Trump shattering the unity of the western world?”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 6:30 utc | 138

@ Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 1 2025 5:23 utc | 137
IMO Tulsi might just be practical, as Snowden is still free, if relocated to Russia. If he were in a situation like Assange was, imprisoned, there would definitely be more of a moral obligation to stand up for him.
As it is, recognizing Snowden is more of an appearances thing, whereas she can only do good as a DNI if she actually gets the job, so it’s a practical consideration.

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 8:17 utc | 139

I equate Tulsi’s official stance on Snowden with Trump’s arrogant bluster regarding his Ukraine negotiation : a non-issue.
Putin doesn’t care about Trump’s show of fake toughness and arrogant bluster. It’s all about the brass tacks : the deal, and ending the Ukraine war.
A lot of people are getting caught up in Trump’s histrionics, but that’s just soap opera stuff he feels he needs to do, for the sake of domestic perception.

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 8:22 utc | 140

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 18:50 utc | 106
If those brigades cannot jointly conduct corps sized operations their combat potential is massively reduced. After the Russians realised the inherent weakness of the BTG concept they reverted back to the traditional Army/Division structure. The Ukrainians attempted to create two functioning corps formations but they were used as a strategic reserve to shore up the units depleted by the disastrous summer offensive.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 1 2025 9:18 utc | 141

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 6:30 utc | 139
He’s shattering the West, as defined by the totalitarian consensus that settled on the former-democracies, promoted by the institutional state and its globalist allies. The ‘24 US election will probably be seen as hugely consequential, giving the beleaguered populations, in these ‘captive’ countries, the permission to resist the various mantra’s of self-destruction.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 1 2025 9:41 utc | 142

Zelensky and Putin are in competition to see who can stroke Trump’s ego the hardest. It’s a pathetic look for geopolitics.

Posted by: Azimuth | Feb 1 2025 10:08 utc | 143

Russia can’t finance this war for another few years. The russian central bank has interest rates at 21% and is likely to have to increase them again soon. Russia has at most 2025 to ‘win’ this war before its economy collapses. I say ‘win’ because the damage Russia has done to itself reputationally, socially and economically is generational. It’ll be the most pyrrhic of victories if it ever comes.

Posted by: Putrid Flow | Feb 1 2025 10:30 utc | 144

Since 2014 we are hearing that russia is going to collapse any day now here in germany.
Non-stop.
Keep up at it little nafos. This time for real!

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 1 2025 11:19 utc | 145

111 european energy
is also supplied by Norway and Algeria…though there seems to be problems confirmed today with EU trying hike Norway electricity price due to Co2 thingy and EU Algeria trade relations beig very unbalanced against Algeria and Algeria is protesting.

Posted by: Jo | Feb 1 2025 11:20 utc | 146

Ahh…the Odessa dreamers are back, bless their hearts. Allergic to maps (don’t even understand the very wide river that is in the way and that neither side has been able to move across it for the last 2 years). Also with no quantitative insights on rate of advance (e.g. unaware of the last two months slowdown NOT acceleration). But somehow saying Russians will “keep going”, whatever that means, to Odessa. Let me know in 50 years when it’s done.
We’re on a roll, boys! 10 kmsq/day in JAN! Lviv any day now!

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 1 2025 11:27 utc | 147

Russia has lost the war a long time ago. Trump will help Putin to save face.

Posted by: cobrakai | Feb 1 2025 11:35 utc | 148

Thought it was all quiet on the ISR front, but a P8 Poseidon from Lossiemouth is just off Kaliningrad.
It’s just gone dark on Flightradar.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 1 2025 12:18 utc | 149

While I’m no expert (not even close) on India politics or socioeconomics, what I do know is that Hindu extremists idolize Zionists, hate and want to eradicate Islam, and have no troubles with the full integration of state capitalist power to ensure the perpetuation of a quasi-caste and religio-supremacist system, in India and whatever territories they feel entitled to own at least.
So all I can say is that this isn’t the sign of a person who would not be prone to embracing actual fascism -and- that I’m disappointed with her refusal to call Edward Snowden a hero (which he is – and if we’re truly in a new era why not fuckin’ say that) even if she did resist denigrating him openly.
My unasked for $0.02
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 1 2025 5:23 utc | 137
Extremists and radicals exist in every religion so belief in the Hindu faith is no more an indicator of radical religous nationalism than Catholicism is. All religions with the possible exception of Buddhism have violent sects … hindus however are among the most peaceful religions on earth.
On the subject of John Snowden, skepticism would be top of the list of attributes of a good head of national security. The last thing you want is are personal biases getting in the way of honest analysis.
The question of john Snowdens loyalty was an obvious gotcha. Tulsi’s skepticism both showed she wasn’t stupid enough to walk into an obvious trap and didn’t jump to conclusions based on personal biases just like you’d want from your head of intelligence. I doubt she’ll get the Senate’s blessing because they’re looking for an ideological toadie instead of a skeptic.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 1 2025 13:07 utc | 150

An employee of the [TCC] accompanying the mobilized was killed in Ukrainian Piryatin
At a gas station in the Ukrainian city of Piryatin, an employee of the territorial recruitment center (TC, an analogue of the military enlistment office), who accompanied the mobilized to the training unit, was shot dead. This was stated in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“On February 1, 2025, at a gas station in the city of Piryatin, while escorting those liable for military service to the 199th training center, an egregious incident occurred – an armed attack on a serviceman of the Poltava district [TCC]. An unknown man in a gray balaclava and pixel trousers approached a soldier of the Poltava RTCC and [SC], threatening with a hunting rifle, demanded to hand over the weapon. Having been refused, the criminal shot at the serviceman. As a result of a serious injury, the soldier died on the spot,” the report says.
It is noted that after the attack, the man took the soldier’s machine gun and disappeared with one of the mobilized. Searches are underway for both.

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/02/01/an-employee-of-the-shopping-mall-accompanying-the-mobilized-was-killed-in-ukrainian-piryatin (with [Edits.])
There has been an increase in reports of resistance against the press-gang commissioners, but this is the first time I’ve seen one about an actual, direct shooting dead of a commissioner while on duty.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 13:20 utc | 151

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 31 2025 19:41 utc | 111
It will not happen but the best option for EU or Europe would be telling US to fuck off and restart exchanges with Russia or even better jump on the brics train.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 1 2025 13:50 utc | 152

Israel Sends Missiles To Ukraine – Axios
https://www.rt.com/news/611950-israel-patriot-missiles-ukraine/
“About 90 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems have been sent from Israel to Poland, from where they will be forwarded to Ukraine, Axios has reported, citing three anonymous sources.
After Israel Defense Forces (IDF) retired their US-supplied Patriots in April 2024, Kiev asked for the missiles. Moscow warned West Jerusalem of potential consequences at the time.
The missile delivery is the ‘most significant’ Israeli constraints to Kiev since the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 14:36 utc | 153

Going Underground
https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/611933-blumenthal-independent-media-trump/
“Max Blumenthal on Ukraine aid corruption…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 14:48 utc | 154

Going Underground: Max Blumenthal (url corrected)
https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/611973-blumenthal-independent-media-trump/
Max Blumenthal on Ukraine aid corruption and more…

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 14:54 utc | 155

Try this instead:
https://x.com/GUnderground_TV/status/1885653305478754697

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 15:08 utc | 156

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang ( Feb 1 2025 13:20 utc | 152 ):
That’s great news, they saved themselves.
I wish more people stood up for themselves and resisted their own murder so I want to point out to the world in general that while a gun can be very helpful one doesn’t need it if one has decided to kill in self-defense and goes for surprise or “accident”. Any sharp edge or pointed object might do, even a small nudge can be all it takes.
Anything is worth /_any_/ try when the alternative is to play catch with incoming artillery fire.
A big swing with a rock in the hand can be more than enough and then to keep going if it wasn’t. Swing like an overhand throw and let gravity help; it’s what it’s there for 😛
A lesson to humanity and each and every one of us to object, resist, and fight for our lives.
· · ·
Mario ( Feb 1 2025 13:50 utc | 153 ):
Yes, it is the only viable future for Europe and/but unless there’s a sudden “everybody gets fusion” (or similar) it does have to happen eventually no matter how long it takes. Maybe it an come sooner if Jo ( Feb 1 2025 11:20 utc | 147 ) is right and the EU finally pushes the Norwegians and Algerians too far.
Long overdue already.
· · ·
On a tangent off of the wider topic it is _very easy_ for all NATO members to reach the 5% goal: just add a tiny smidge more of all that creative bookkeeping!
Include every single expenditure for everything related to and used by the military, things such as pensions, infrastructure, maintenance, disability pay, education, science, child care, and in fact every single item in the entire budget because without the vast majority of them there wouldn’t be a country in the first place! 🙂
Isn’t that what ex-Ukraine has done? 😛 (except only after first destroying itself —that’s too late!).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 1 2025 15:24 utc | 157

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 1 2025 14:36 utc | 154
The IDF’s enhanced PAC-2 missiles are inferior in their performance against ballistic missiles, to the PAC-3’s that were initially supplied, being specialised for cruise missile and aviation intercepts It maintains Ukraines AD but with a degraded overall effectiveness.
Still no ATACMS/Stormshadow attacks recorded by both sides since mid-Jan.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 1 2025 15:26 utc | 158

Anonymous // 148
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang // 152
Once you develop a strategic plan, you then create metrics which allow you to measure your progress to achieving your strategic goals.
If you intend to de-militarize, de-nazify, and render a country eternally neutral, measuring progress by land taken is stupid. Only stupid people say such stupid things. I imagine these mouth breathers, drool seeping from their open mouth, blinking their dull stupid eyes, as they type away, “The Russians aren’t advancing, so they must be losing.”
On the other hand, when someone points out the killing of a Ukrainian mobilization officer – now that is an interesting data point. I’ve been wondering when that would happen. Now we need to wonder, is this an isolated data point or is this indictive of a larger trend? Does this indicate the Ukrainian people are turning against their government and its policies, or is this only one person. Time will tell, but thanks for pointing out the incident.
Meanwhile, all you stupid people obsessing about land, keep on obsessing. I always like having people to look down at.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 1 2025 15:41 utc | 159

Posted by: Mario | Feb 1 2025 13:50 utc | 153
##########
Many think that BRICS is anti-US. It is not. It is anti-colonialism and anti-hegemony.
So, that includes the UK, and France as well.
Using access to fiscal mechanisms as a weapon wasn’t originally an American thing. The French have been doing that in Africa for decades.
Europe is only a garden because it has pillaged the Global South for centuries.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 1 2025 16:07 utc | 160

Russia can’t finance this war for another few years. The russian central bank has interest rates at 21% and is likely to have to increase them again soon. Russia has at most 2025 to ‘win’ this war before its economy collapses. I say ‘win’ because the damage Russia has done to itself reputationally, socially and economically is generational. It’ll be the most pyrrhic of victories if it ever comes.
Posted by: Putrid Flow | Feb 1 2025 10:30 utc | 145
##########
This war has made Russia wealthier than it has ever been, with improved trade relations.
If not for the loss of scarce life, Russia should keep this up as long as it can.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 1 2025 16:10 utc | 161

[..] is this an isolated data point or is this indictive of a larger trend? Does this indicate the Ukrainian people are turning against their government and its policies, or is this only one person.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 1 2025 15:41 utc | 160
There’s been an increasing number of reports of incidents involving the press-gangs since at least the middle of last year; I believe this latest one to be a significant point in the escalating resistance to the press-gangs.
It really got going after the employment details of many staff were ‘doxxed’ by some kind of hacking operation. Almost straight away reports started appearing of apparently random arson attacks on vehicles and properties and then the offices of the press-gangs. Attacks on offices in particular escalated to include the use of grenades. Late last year there was a gun battle at or near Lvov railway station. Just after the New Year there was two days of rioting in one of the western oblasts that has a large Roma population; the press-gangs steamed in, looking for victims, and basically got their backsides handed to them.
Also, one thing to remember, most of these reports only emerge in Ukrainian media if someone has been caught in the frame for the blame.
So, the shooting definitely isn’t an isolated affair, I fully expect to see more, perhaps not immediately but there’s a sense of a pressure-cooker building up.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 16:28 utc | 162

Still no ATACMS/Stormshadow attacks recorded by both sides since mid-Jan.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 1 2025 15:26 utc | 159

Yes, and the Patriots are a non-issue anyway since they’re defensive and proven ineffective against anything beyond drones.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 17:38 utc | 163

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 16:28 utc | 163
Ukrainian police have confirmed information about an explosion in the building of the military registration and enlistment office in the city of Rivne. According to police, one person was killed and six others were injured.
Rivne is in western Ukraine.
https://t.me/intelslava/73193

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 1 2025 17:51 utc | 164

Jeremy_R.L.@1628 Feb the 1st
Interesting, though not unexpected info. I’ve posted previously…more than once…that the gradual tussles with the press gangs would get stronger and stronger…even to the point where all those Ak-47’s that the Maidan regime got a bit close to Kiev happened to be passed out to anybody who wanted one. Likely the “quarterbacks” did not take names and addresses of the donees.
The playback should get more and more intense in coming weeks as popular support for the Maidaners has gone severiously south.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 1 2025 17:54 utc | 165

@ YetAnotherAnon | Feb 1 2025 17:51 utc | 165
Yes, just seen that on the Ukrainian RegioNews outlet as well.
A shooting and an explosion on the same day: perhaps Russia doesn’t need to capture a whole lot of km² after all, the Ukrainian people might well do it for them…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 18:02 utc | 166

A shooting and an explosion on the same day: perhaps Russia doesn’t need to capture a whole lot of km² after all, the Ukrainian people might well do it for them…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 18:02 utc | 167

There’s chatter about a rise in “partisan” activity as well.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 18:11 utc | 167

The playback should get more and more intense in coming weeks as popular support for the Maidaners has gone severiously south.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 1 2025 17:54 utc | 166
Agreed, and I’d add further seasoning to the mix, in that I doubt very much that what passes for NATO/Western “planning” has allowed for a genuine, grass-roots armed uprising by an extremely pee’d- off populace; no contrived Maidan nonsense, just a lot of very angry folks, looking for someone to blame.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 18:17 utc | 168

There’s chatter about a rise in “partisan” activity as well.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 18:11 utc | 168
Yeah, that’s been escalating for some time as well, the rail network being a favoured target with derailments, wagons/coaches set on fire etc.
Not to mention daily reports of arrests of “patriotic” Ukrainians for allegedly providing targetting info and other intel to Russian contacts.
There’s a whole lot bubbling underneath that the likes of @Anonymous, @Julian, @Ed4, @Micron and company either don’t know about or deliberately ignore.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 18:39 utc | 169

The definition of treason is aiding and abetting the enemy. Edward Snowden gave information to the American people.
Congress members define that as treason.
Therefore, it is obvious that Congress considers the American public as the enemy.
As Edward Snowden has said: “When exposing a crime is treated as committing a crime, you are being ruled by criminals.”
Shame on Tulsi for kowtowing to the enemies of Americans by repeating ad nauseum “He broke the law”.
No way those MIC sucklings will vote for her, no matter how much she chants their mantras. All she did was dismay her supporters.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 1 2025 18:42 utc | 170

There’s a whole lot bubbling underneath that the likes of @Anonymous, @Julian, @Ed4, @Micron and company either don’t know about or deliberately ignore.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 18:39 utc | 170

Yeah, a lot of people talk about how Western Ukraine will be an unmanageable anti-Russian hotbed entirely ignoring that there are other players in the game. IMHO the Azov types will quickly move from the predator to the prey category once the Ukrainian government collapses Syrian-style.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:14 utc | 171

Napoleon? Let him in and drain his army. Hitler? Let him in and drain his army. Zelensky? Let him in and drain his army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2enbP10mU1w
I think I’m seeing a pattern here. And it seems to work. 58K Ukr soldiers gone?

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 1 2025 19:19 utc | 172

Shame on Tulsi for kowtowing to the enemies of Americans by repeating ad nauseum “He broke the law”.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 1 2025 18:42 utc | 171

I really like Tulsi. Having had lots of military in my family tree I understand how deeply ingrained the “rule of law” is within them so I’m not surprised with that response even though Snowden is undoubtedly a hero and was totally justified in his action. Exposing criminal activity within government should not be considered a crime.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:21 utc | 173

I think I’m seeing a pattern here. And it seems to work. 58K Ukr soldiers gone?
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 1 2025 19:19 utc | 173

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:23 utc | 174

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:14 utc | 172
##################
Borzzikman was talking about how Romania and Poland already have troops in place in Western Ukraine, ostensibly for future territorial transfer(s).
Duda, the Polish leader, has called for the elimination of the Ukraine/Polish border to create a free travel zone. I don’t know if people remember the pact Poland signed with Ukraine last year.
That should be a lot of fun later. Ukrainian Nazis think that Poles are untermesch. Then the Poles can get in on the de-Nazification game.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 1 2025 19:43 utc | 175

That should be a lot of fun later. Ukrainian Nazis think that Poles are untermesch. Then the Poles can get in on the de-Nazification game.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 1 2025 19:43 utc | 176

Well, there’s that, and the distinct possibility that Western Ukraine gets carved up — Poland gets some, Romania gets some, etc. Azov’s could quickly find they have no safe harbor…

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:58 utc | 176

reply to 174
Man, I really hate this. I still like Bernie but the whole corrupt ugly game coerces them to comply. They can only say or do so much and they know it. This is also partly why they hate Trump so much – a weird envy because he can say outrageous things and get away with it. Since the US is ruled by a legal structure of bribery in campaigns, Liberals are mostly useless. A lot of pointless noise while oligarchs and corporations literally write the laws and hand them over to be voted on (as during the Banking crisis).

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 1 2025 20:08 utc | 177

Azov types will quickly move from the predator to the prey category once the Ukrainian government collapses Syrian-style.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 19:14 utc | 172
Don’t think so, there’s no Ukr gov. And most of the original azovs died since Mariupol days. What is left and other factions like them plus the nato soldiers will continue terrorism and random killing with little opposition, exactly like they did in Kursk. Russia only complains so many were raped and killed, but evacuation, prevention and retaliation do not exist. Gerasy can’t do it even if he wants to, too dumb. many from the original azovs were released to Turkey if you remember, they were never prey, they were nato heroes paraded everywhere, shown on tv. Funny thing that nato killed some of them while in prison in Donbass using himars

Posted by: rk | Feb 1 2025 20:39 utc | 178

Signing out for tonight with a gripe: my Postcards From Yuzhmash business venture is still on hold…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 1 2025 21:00 utc | 179

Don’t think so, there’s no Ukr gov. And most of the original azovs died since Mariupol days.
Posted by: rk | Feb 1 2025 20:39 utc | 179

Politely disagree. The Rada’s still there and would gladly hand the keys over upon Z’s departure. Also, only the longstanding Azov battalion died at Mariupol; there’s plenty left, they’re the ones keeping a knife to Z’s throat, and they’re also the ones shooting retreating AFU Schutzstaffel-style (not to mention killing Ukrainian civilians that hold out in contested villages waiting to greet the RF with open arms).

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 1 2025 21:15 utc | 180

@ HB_Norica | Feb 1 2025 13:07 utc | 151
Was John Snowden related to Edward Snowden, or is this from Game of Thrones where the chick with the weird face said “Winter’s coming soon John Snow.”

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 22:13 utc | 181

@ HB Norica
Don’t feel bad, for a while I thought Bolton’s first name was Mike 😹

Posted by: Featherless | Feb 1 2025 22:19 utc | 182

I’ll concede it’s a bit immature to reference Star Trek, but I intermittently consider the possibility that Ukraine will end up like the Orion Syndicate. Once a mighty force, it lost some major battles and the organization devolved into being just a crime syndicate. They became pirates, and even flesh peddlers.
We have the precedent of when the old Soviet Bloc broke up, and all the former intelligence officers of those countries started looking for ways to make a buck, but with Ukraine it will be far worse because, dollars to donuts, groups like Azov have already stockpiled vast amounts of gear, from heavy automatic weapons to shoulder launched missiles that can take down airlines.
They have the ability to start up a mafia that could match any we’ve seen before. Well, I’m just someone posting on the internet, and no doubt all the intelligence agencies from Moscow to Paris to London to Washington have already considered the possible outcomes of a collapse of the Zelenskyy regime. Maybe a caretaker government of what eventually remains of Ukraine that is funded to prevent the above is the answer, and it’s what both Trump and Putin will agree on.

The Orion Syndicate was a criminal organization created and maintained by the Orions. The Syndicate’s activities included gambling, racketeering, smuggling, piracy, slave-trading, extortion, and assassination.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 1 2025 23:02 utc | 183

Gulfstream G500 from Billund in Demnark heading for the Black Sea.
https://www.flightradar24.com/GA5C/38f70be5

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 1 2025 23:21 utc | 184

reply to 181
We haven’t discussed this but what’s left of the Ukr. SS enforcer Nazis? Specifically, any chance that these guys are (or soon will be) dead in Kursk? Denazinfication by this means would be very handy.
I also repeat – if there is any of you out there who needs a Ph.D thesis (or know somebody who needs a topic), here it is: The Science Of Collapse in real time. How does it happen? What are the steps? What to look for? Can you produce a graph with a time scale that’s predictive?
Reading reports of Ukr officers being shot while kidnapping men on the street is a very hopeful sign. Also, the strange claims that Poles, Romanians and Hungary are guarding Ukr borders maybe from 2km in while Ukr border guards go to the meat grinder.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 2 2025 0:15 utc | 185

Peace negotiations? In Venezuela? If he pulls it off they’ll call him Trump the Water Walker…..
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 2 2025 0:47 utc | 186

Babel 17@2302 Feb 1
Assessing the outlook of the ruling collective in the Kremlin; it is apparent that Russia, after the surrender by colonels and a few generals of the AUF…will dictate some terms, sweetened by the prospect of the possibility of becoming the founding fathers of a NovaUkrainia amongst those folks who prefer The Ukraine dialect to proper Russian…as well as granted shipping and warehousing permission in and around Odessa…will happily accept the terms.
Primary of those terms would be the chopping off the tail of the Bolshevik establishment of Ukraine SSR…to wit Stalin’s decision to absorb, after the Soviet victory in WWII; the highly Westernized and thoroughly deracinated populations of Galicia and nearby oblasts.
That region would not become part of NovoUkrainia. They would be a totally disarmed micro-state which would be thoroughly fenced in on their eastern borders, while being “protected” by the armed forces of a consortium consisting of Belarus, NovoUkrainia, Russia and Poland.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 2 2025 2:01 utc | 187

Pretty sure this is one of Julian’s distant Nazi relatives.
*video*

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 2 2025 2:39 utc | 188

It’s as if every empire, before going down the drain, makes one last attempt to take Russia. Perhaps because a business case can be made that the cost of war with Russia is less than the spoils of war from Russia. They get more than they bargained for.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 2 2025 8:28 utc | 189

Looks like Ukrainian gas and energy processing or storage facilities in Myrhorod/Poltava are in flames after morning strikes, released by NASA satellite photos. During Biden, NASA censored sat pictures from Ukraine, by the way.
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1885748836900962621

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 2 2025 9:07 utc | 190

Col. Daniel Davis and JohnMearsheimer talked with each other on Daniel Davis’ YouTube channel about the situation in the Ukraine.
“John Mearsheimer: There’ll be No Ceasefire in Ukraine”
In that video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CFhQy-yUgw (length: 12 minutes)
a piece of text is visible/being displayed that reads as follows (in bold italics):
“As for Russia’s line on Ukraine, it remains unchanged. It’s important for us that the tasks of the SVO (SMO) are accomplished. They are ….. the incorporation into the Russian Federation of the DNR, (Donetsk), LNR(Luhansk), Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, the republic of Crimea and Sevastopol…
We are particularly concerned that the violent coercion of neo-nazi ideology, along with ardent Russophobia, are destroying Ukraine’s once prosporous cities, including Kharkov, Odessa, NIkolaev, and Dnepropetrovsk.
It is not excluded that in the coming year, Ukraine will cease to exist at all.”

Mearsheimer thinks that Russia will take the 4 most eastern oblasts. He thinks that “it’s likely” that Russia as the war continues to grind on the chances of the Ukraine also losing another 1 to 4 oblasts (including Odessa, as hinted above) will gradually grow.
I think this story (taking 8 oblasts + collapse) will continue to be “circulated” as long as Russia doens’control the 4 most south eastern oblasts.
Russia wants to 1) the Ukraine to never join NATO 2) the Ukraine to become a neutral country. I think the text above (in bold italics) is meant as a threat when the West won’t listen to the russian warnings/demands.
I don’t think Russia REALLY wants the Urkaine to fully collapse / cease to exist because then the Ukraine would remain a constant headache not only for Russia but for Europe AS WELL. Russia wants – like so many other countries in the world – stability instead of constant instability.
The video also refers to following article:
https://21stcenturywire.com/2025/01/17/nikolai-patrushev-its-possible-that-ukraine-could-cease-to-exist-in-coming-year

Posted by: WMG | Feb 2 2025 11:31 utc | 191

Hello, lots of hope and speculation here and everywhere. My view: there will be an Istanbul II and a Minsk II. The Russian elites can go on vacation in the West again and do business with their Western partners. In 10 years, it will start again.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 2 2025 11:42 utc | 192

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 2 2025 11:42 utc | 192
There already was a minsk2.*

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 2 2025 12:12 utc | 193

Ukraine overpaid for expired ‘crap’ – former general.
Kiev’s Defense Procurement Agency has been called out for buying hundreds of thousands of WWII-era US made M6A2 anti-tank mines at over $600 apiece (using US money).
The mines are filled with 5.4kg of TNT, which is not enough to damage the tracks of a post-WW2 tank. The US replaced the M6 in the 1960s, with twice as potent M15 mines.
A Bulgarian front company collected them (most likely from South Vietnam) and made a huge profit.
The TNT inside the mine has a shelf life of 35 years (US standard) and the detonators are unproven.
We see, there is always good use for free US money around the world. Middle-men are cashing in, Ukrainian general Sergey Krivonos implies.

https://x.com/AlternatNews/status/1886023911453622363

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 2 2025 12:34 utc | 194

Geran strike on diesel fuel depot south of Sumy. 3000 tons of diesel fuel destroyed.
https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1886007403524632956

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 2 2025 12:42 utc | 195

Geran strike on diesel fuel depot south of Sumy. 3000 tons of diesel fuel destroyed.
https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1886007403524632956
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 2 2025 12:42 utc | 195
Little economic impact , but locally might hinder mech AFU maneuvers.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 2 2025 12:59 utc | 196

Dima’s latest video posits that a bunch of gas facilities are in massive flames near Poltava.
Also, a bunch of Frenchies bit the dust in Odessa from an Iskander strike.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 2 2025 13:41 utc | 197

https://www.flightradar24.com/38f8b483
US P8 Poseidon off Kaliningrad. Probably from Lossiemouth in Scotland.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 2 2025 13:50 utc | 198