News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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January 16, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-011
Comments
@uwdude | Thu, 16 Jan 2025 22:44:00 GMT | 100
also, I will add, Anonymous has neen right for at least a year about the pace of the war, while so many here continuously forecast collapse and sweeping offensives and end of war by 2024 nonsense.
He has been realistic in his assessments, and his criticisms of the SMO’s pace were valid.
Who says the pace of the SMO is slow? Compared to what war? I’ve asked Anonymous to clarify what he thought would be a “good pace” for the war and do some comparative analysis, but so far he is unwilling or unable to do so.
It’s fine and dandy if someone expected this war to go the way of the 1991 Gulf War, and were surprised by the pace. But if they did, I would question if they knew anything about warfare. The pace is “slow” only to those who think war is a video game, which it certainly isn’t.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 17 2025 0:03 utc | 101
ZH has a posting title up that shows Trump facing reality and showing maximum empire pressure
Trump Mulls Oil Sanctions Plan Which Leaves Room For Russia Deal While Squeezing Iran, Venezuela
Is Trump going to abandon Europe and let it re-associate with Russia? What leverage will it have other than the US dollar to keep Europe buying American LNG?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 17 2025 0:03 utc | 102
…It really is astonishing how quickly Britain deteriorated as a country. Makes one wonder how it was ever possible for them to control such a huge part of the world not too long ago…
Posted by: Roland | Jan 16 2025 23:27 utc | 102
I’m a bit OT here, though Starmer was in Kiev — this was an interesting link from the Dances with Bears article on the Skripals someone posted earlier on the Open forum –to answer the above segment of your comment, Roland:
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2173/2173-h/2173-h.htm
[It’s long, but a fascinating read. Back in the day the ‘deep state’ was aligned differently, but the rot still made its appearance, and Edmund took notice.]
Posted by: juliania | Jan 17 2025 0:16 utc | 103
@UWDude | Thu, 16 Jan 2025 22:35:00 GMT | 97
actually, Anonymous went from an annoying broken record to a useful and appreciated source of data with his daily captured land updates.
It’s all the same. The information is open sourced, it’s not even his. It’s not like he does any kind of deep-rooted analysis with it. Nope, he just grifts off, what is it, Deep State’s map, who gets it from the daily releases from the MoDs, like everyone else. It’s still a broken record.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 16 2025 23:58 utc | 108
Sorry, but unless you have some high level connections (and someone disregarding clearance issues) we mainly work with open information.
And most of the times it’s copy paste for others that didn’t search for it.
Sometimes we get interesting stuff deducted from what little we get.
Did you take a look at my “marines vs grunts” update @30? Started from a simple two figure news on POW exchange and then used it to validate and fine tune a model I designed from things I learned looking for information on armored combat injuries because of something somebody said here and I wanted to know and reply.
You never know what can trigger some original work.
Is it real? Don’t know, but its consistent with a lot of information and clashes mainly with some that can be explained or is supposed to be kept secret.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 17 2025 0:16 utc | 104
And there we go.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 23:53 utc | 106
yeah, we were posting at the same time. my other comment took a while to compose, and was posted before I saw he had posted his update in between.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 17 2025 0:40 utc | 105
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 17 2025 0:40 utc | 114 plus 100 other posts the last day
aka Psychos R US
(big smile)
Great to see such a dumb troll so completely fucked up as this one is.
The sock puppet fraud UWDude is all we need to fucking destroy MoA single-handedly
Posted by: PeterS | Jan 17 2025 1:43 utc | 106
English Outsider | Jan 16 2025 16:34 utc | 12 …
Don’t disagree with your post, but worry that if sanctions were largely lifted, diplomatic relations returned to what was more usual, and travel made easier — that could assist the liberal and neoliberal traitors in cities such as Moscow and St.Petersburg, plus the Oligarchs, to resume their attempts to “Westernise” (ie. NATO “values” + Western agendas) and thereby destroy Russia.
Unfortunately, have to suspect that Putin and his cronies — no matter how they may seem to act to the contrary in the short-term — are basically on that side as well, even if not as bad.
Posted by: Cynic | Jan 17 2025 1:47 utc | 107
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 15:13 utc | 2
“Zelensky says he signed century-long partnership agreement with UK ” https://tass.com/world/1900207
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 17:10 utc | 17
An absolutely devastating night for Russia as 7 regions are attacked by a variety of Ukraine’s missiles, drones and American made ATACAMS. . . .here
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 16 2025 17:13 utc | 18
Ha, the EU barks to obfuscate it’s impotence. NATO’s military & economic power is the US alone, no others can apply.
<==the Uk controls that power, it always has..the UK used the USA to force Americans into WWI and WWII. Hopefully the world will not let them do it again..
<- four more days until Trump is in charge. Russia will probably wait to respond . Looks to me if Uk disappeared there would be no wr in Ukraine.
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 19:19 utc | 42
That leaves only one option -- credibly threaten Romania with being erased from existence
If UK no longer existed, the attacks on Russia would likely stop?
Posted by: snake | Jan 17 2025 2:00 utc | 108
I’ve learned to scroll faster, basically looking for links because that means somebody has made a comment and supported their view with a link. Badminton troll v anti troll posts never have a hyperlink in them. As the thread unspools with my finger on the down button I stop for posters names that more often than not have useful info. Going backwards to the top of their post isn’t that hard, though every time it baffles me as to why B doesn’t tweak the forum to have poster’s names at the top of the post.
No explanation why he won’t make that small change chaps my ass more than anything else.
Re: SMO/Ukraine, Russia seems to just slog on killing the enemy and breaking shit better than nato forces by an order of magnitude. No way the west can or will sue for peace on terms acceptable to the Russian People. Here in America the economic hardship from printing machine go brrrrrrrrr is hurting all but the most fortunate. If Russia can take 50,000 200s a year for a couple more years there really won’t be anything left on the territory of 404 and nothing but ruined economies in the west fulla people mucking around in cob pits like a Monty Python film.
Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 17 2025 2:27 utc | 110
@ comrade simba | Jan 17 2025 2:27 utc | 125
the idea has been suggested many times – have the posters name on the top, instead of the bottom.. perhaps it is a built in template that typepad uses where there is no altering it.. that would appear to be the case..
Posted by: james | Jan 17 2025 2:31 utc | 111
Wouldn’t it be better to ignore outrageous and provocative postings? The endless wars of contradiction are not doing much good.
Was it Canuck who introduced the term ‘Quit Vargassing’ as part of a stream of consciousness outpouring over our nonsensical barflies?
DJT is realistic enough when it comes to Ukraine, my impression is. He is also not likely to have a fight with Putin. He knows that he is at risk of being JFK’d if he does not toe the line.
We are living in interesting times.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 17 2025 3:24 utc | 112
Trump was selected to clean up Biden’s mess, but not in a way we are hoping for.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2025 17:03 utc | 15
Trump’s the bankruptcy expert. With a cabinet of Zion to make sure no one important gets screwed. The USA, my country, is the biggest sponsor of global terror. That won’t stop.
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 17 2025 4:10 utc | 113
Trump was selected to clean up Biden’s mess, but not in a way we are hoping for.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2025 17:03 utc | 15
Trump’s the bankruptcy expert. With a cabinet of Zion to make sure no one important gets screwed. The USA, my country, is the biggest sponsor of global terror. That won’t stop.
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 17 2025 4:10 utc | 129
—————————————————————–
He surprised me during the campaign by being capable of being quite ‘Presidential’ which surprised me.
Below is an article by karlof1 on his Substack illustrating my earlier comments that he seems more complex than all his bombast would have us believe. His Treasury Secretary is going to be one hell of a surprise, for one. Rubio is a placeholder. Shrinking DoD along with other government spending is no fun job.
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/trumps-18-november-speech-stunner
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 17 2025 4:56 utc | 114
Re: Posted by: James M. | Jan 17 2025 0:03 utc | 110
Who says the pace of the SMO is slow? Compared to what war? I’ve asked Anonymous to clarify what he thought would be a “good pace” for the war and do some comparative analysis, but so far he is unwilling or unable to do so.
It’s fine and dandy if someone expected this war to go the way of the 1991 Gulf War, and were surprised by the pace. But if they did, I would question if they knew anything about warfare. The pace is “slow” only to those who think war is a video game, which it certainly isn’t.
The pace of the SMO is glacially slow compared to the previous Invasion of Russia known as Operation Barbarossa – you may be familiar with it.
Are you suggesting the Ukrainians are a much better prepared fighting force relative to the Russians/Soviets than the Nazis were in 1941/42?
Operation Barbarossa started on June 22, 1941 and by June 22, 1944/ August 19, 1944 – just over 3 years later the Soviets had rolled back over Ukraine and were fighting in Poland around places like Lviv/Lvov/Lemberg!!
The comparison to now would be the Russians in Lviv/Lvov/Lemberg by April 2025 – 3 years and 2 months after this conflict started.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 17 2025 5:03 utc | 115
DJT is realistic enough when it comes to Ukraine, my impression is. He is also not likely to have a fight with Putin. He knows that he is at risk of being JFK’d if he does not toe the line.
We are living in interesting times.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 17 2025 3:24 utc | 128
There is no conceivable positive outcome for Russia here.
Even if Trump walks out of Ukraine completely, which, as you point out correctly, is highly doubtful because he does not have all that much power personally, that does not solve the problems Russia has created for itself in the last three years.
The chief of them being the lost of deterrence.
Let’s imagine Trump totally abandons Ukraine and Russia walks to the Polish border. Does that restore deterrence? No, it doesn’t.
What is to stop, say, Estonia and Finland from launching drones towards St. Petersburg and Murmansk? Which is not even a hypothetical, they have in fact been doing it. And what was Russia’s reaction? Pretended it didn’t happen and those were “Ukrainian” drones. But let’s say there is no Ukraine anymore and the Estonians feel like doing it themselves. Past behavior being the best predictor of future actions, the Kremlin will refuse to be baited into a “disproportional response” by “provocations”. Meaning that the Estonians will be at liberty to destroy some more IL-76 planes in Pskov and to kill a few dozen Russian civilians with drones hitting apartment buildings, and nothing will happen to them.
Because why would it? Did anything happen to Zelensky?
Now compare to the situation three years ago. Did anyone imagine we will be here three years later? In January 2022 it was unthinkable for anyone to be launching any kind of strikes against Russia. Now it is a free for all.
There are three and only three ways to restore deterrence:
1) Successfully having the people responsible for the war — the Blinkens and Nulands of the world as well as the members of the Western oligarchy behind them — handed over to Russia, then sending them to GULAG camps or having them executed publicly after trial. Zero chance of that happening voluntarily, no matter who is in the White House, because that would be the opposite of America being “great”. Besides, the Kremlin has not declared it as a goal anyway, which is a huge issue on its own.
2) Launching a conventional missile strike and/or assassination campaign against those individuals no matter where they are located, i.e. handing out justice directly. That should have happened a long time ago, but it hasn’t, and quite certainly it won’t happen in the future either as long as these people are in charge in Moscow.
3) Nuking somebody, to make sure nobody else ever dares attack.
I don’t see other options.
Again, not only does the war have to be won decisively so that it is not restarted, but deterrence has to be restored too. The former requires the Kremlin doing much, much, much more than it is doing now, which it stubbornly refuses to do, the latter requires some kind of drastic action way beyond merely winning the war, and that is not even set as an objective…
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 17 2025 5:19 utc | 116
The pace of the SMO is glacially slow compared to the previous Invasion of Russia
Posted by: Julian | Jan 17 2025 5:03 utc | 131
so is the pace of the casualties.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 17 2025 5:30 utc | 117
@ ANON2022 | Jan 17 2025 5:19 utc | 132
you’ve been very consistent for the past 3 years as well.. perhaps those of us that see it diametrically opposite you are too.. so there is that… i think there are larger games at play here and those are the ones you are missing in your repetitive analysis which always comes out the same..
Posted by: james | Jan 17 2025 5:33 utc | 118
There are three and only three ways…
–shadowbanned
In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory.
6. Indirect tactics, efficiently applied, are inexhaustible as Heaven and Earth, unending as the flow of rivers and streams; like the sun and moon, they end but to begin anew; like the four seasons, they pass away to return once more.
7. There are not more than five musical notes, yet the combinations of these five give rise to more melodies than can ever be heard.
8. There are not more than five primary colors (blue, yellow, red, white, and black), yet in combination they produce more hues than can ever been seen.
9. There are not more than five cardinal tastes (sour, acrid, salt, sweet, bitter), yet combinations of them yield more flavors than can ever be tasted.
10. In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack–the direct and the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers.
11. The direct and the indirect lead on to each other in turn.
It is like moving in a circle–you never come to an end.
Who can exhaust the possibilities of their combination?
–Sun Tzu
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 17 2025 5:35 utc | 119
@Newbie | Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:16:00 GMT | 113
Sorry, but unless you have some high level connections (and someone disregarding clearance issues) we mainly work with open information.
Yes, of course. So why should I care what Anonymous says versus any of the other sources of information saying exactly the same thing. Not like I can’t look up the info myself. As I said before, it’s all the same with him – nothing new or insightful, so I ignore it, along with the other Anons.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 17 2025 5:58 utc | 120
@ Acco Hengst | Jan 17 2025 3:24 utc | 128
Wouldn’t it be better to ignore outrageous and provocative postings?
The issue is, that the intended goal of some disingenuous actors here is to flood the threads with various types of propaganda/narratives. Leaving them unchallenged improves an image of “validity” of those “points of view” to anyone not keeping a close eye on the discussions here. This is an information war, don’t disregard this due to means of this war being as petty as directing trolls. Most of those don’t even realize what they are doing, but still pushing a narrative intended to dominate.
Besides, sometimes those posts provide a good excuse for reiterating important points and discussions.
Also. Where are the F-16, by the way?
Posted by: boneless | Jan 17 2025 5:59 utc | 121
@Newbie | Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:16:00 GMT | 113
Did you take a look at my “marines vs grunts” update @30? Started from a simple two figure news on POW exchange and then used it to validate and fine tune a model I designed from things I learned looking for information on armored combat injuries because of something somebody said here and I wanted to know and reply.
You say at least something more interesting and insightful. You take raw numbers and do some analysis with it, which is why I read your posts versus others.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 17 2025 6:00 utc | 122
@ James M. | Jan 17 2025 5:58 utc | 136
DS is, as the modern internet culture puts it, “coping hard”. It has turned, inevitably, into the slowest to update first-party OSINT mapping project, which harms overall clarity of an already difficult to put together picture. This harm is intentional, naturally, because AFU, who are very closely involved (if not directly run) DS, are losing badly.
It is also telling that out dear contributor settled on DS as a source _exclusively_ after all this time, instead of a mix of both AFU and AFRF sources or any other neutral digest mapping projects which do exactly that.
There is nothing genuine about our territory enthusiast (including for other reasons), whether he realizes it or not.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 17 2025 6:07 utc | 123
The pace of the SMO is glacially slow compared to the previous Invasion of Russia
Posted by: Julian | Jan 17 2025 5:03 utc | 131
I remember who won that war, and it wasn’t the faster paced side. The Wehrmacht with its blitzkrieg lost its war. The US with its Desert Storm lightning attacks led to a protracted twenty year hot and cold war with Iraq. So again, what does pace have to do with anything regarding the war?
What are Russia’s war aims again? To take Kiev as quickly as possible or to de-militarize and neutralize Ukraine so it never poses a threat to Russia? And which “pace” is best suited toward those goals? I think Russia is doing fine in this war, and history won’t remember or care how long it took, only the outcome.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 17 2025 6:13 utc | 124
Posted by: boneless | Jan 17 2025 5:59 utc | 137
and it gets really annoying when they bring in their sock accounts to congratulate themselves on such “profound” posts.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 17 2025 6:23 utc | 125
@ 137 “Also. Where are the F-16, by the way?”
The F 16s are flying Wingman for The Ghost of Kiev.
Posted by: golddigger | Jan 17 2025 7:13 utc | 126
“threads with various types of propaganda/narratives. Leaving them unchallenged improves an image of “validity” of those “points of view” to anyone not keeping a close eye on the discussions here”
Thank you for succinctly stating those things.
various goals I imagine. Multiplying internet cloud coverage for shitty ideas muddying the puddle, branding hype, weaponized time wasters..
and petroleum companies would never send anyone out to do that.
Posted by: Not Ewe | Jan 17 2025 7:30 utc | 127
Posted by: Not Ewe | Jan 17 2025 7:30 utc | 134
It’s funny that people ignore the effects of ocean acidification on mulluscs.
But I guess having clouds of sulfer dioxide gas all along the coastal regions is no big deal.
Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 17 2025 8:22 utc | 128
Extraordinary sequence of events narrated by Yakut hero Andrei Grigoriev of world fame for the knife fight. He killed many ukrops while retreating from the location of the fight.
https://southfront.press/mortal-combat-interview-with-russian-fighter-who-won-in-hand-to-hand-combat/
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jan 17 2025 8:53 utc | 129
Someone dreaming:
Peacemaker
@peacemaket71
⚡️3 scenarios for deploying British troops in Ukraine – The Telegraph
1) British troops will set up points along the buffer zone to be patrolled by fighter jets and attack helicopters. At the rear, rapid reaction forces and third-tier armoured vehicles are ready to repel any attack;
2) The West creates a defensive perimeter around Kiev to allow Ukrainian forces to concentrate on containing Russian troops;
3) British instructors conduct training in western Ukraine, with air defence from Poland providing protection.
https://x.com/peacemaket71/status/1879829660168540670
Posted by: Menz | Jan 17 2025 9:25 utc | 130
Russia accuses US and Ukraine of targeting TurkStream gas pipeline
Washington encouraging Ukraine to sabotage last remaining pipeline carrying Russian gas into the EU, claims Moscow.
14 Jan 2025
Russia has accused the United States of seeking to sabotage TurkStream, the last pipeline carrying Russian gas exports into Europe.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged at a news conference on Tuesday that Washington is encouraging “terrorist” attacks on his country’s energy infrastructure, and claimed there are plans to target TurkStream.
“The US does not tolerate competition in any sphere, including energy. They are recklessly endorsing terrorist activities aimed at undermining the energy stability of the European Union,” Lavrov said, according to Turkiye’s Anadolu news agency.
“They are encouraging their Ukrainian proxies to disable TurkStream following the sabotage of Nord Stream,” he added.
Russia said on Monday that it had downed nine Ukrainian drones that had tried to attack part of TurkStream’s infrastructure.
The pipeline is the last carrying Russian gas into the EU after Ukraine refused to renew a transit contract that expired at the end of 2024. The halt on that route has further disrupted EU unity on the war, with Slovakia claiming it will cause a crisis and threatening to block EU support for Kyiv.
MORE…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/14/russia-accuses-us-and-ukraine-of-targeting-turkstream-gas-pipeline
Posted by: Menz | Jan 17 2025 9:28 utc | 131
Menz @ 137
Someone dreaming: 3 scenarios for deploying British troops in Ukraine
Fantasizing while jerking off, or a more precise diagnosis, auto-erotic asphyxiation. A sad and dangerous preoccupation.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 17 2025 9:48 utc | 132
Posted by: ossi7 | Jan 17 2025 9:30 utc | 139
Ossi is that really you? I hope not because you are probably my favorite poster just now and that garbage is not sensible.
Now a year or so ago I seemed also to be blocked. No idea why. I POLITELY emailed Bernhard to ask if I had been banned. He said no. It was probably just a glitch or possibly interference from outside. Do the same and do not post emotive stuff.
Posted by: watcher | Jan 17 2025 10:01 utc | 133
Posted by: ossi9 | Jan 17 2025 10:21 utc | 142
Well, you are the King of sausage makers on this site, it blocks people randomly
Posted by: Grishka | Jan 17 2025 10:26 utc | 134
Acco Hengst @ 121
Thanks for the good Karl link. Some peeps think I have TDS, I don’t I have USADS, and as an Italian American who grew up in NYC I have con-man awareness radar, built in by my parents as a survival instinct, since I was a kid in the 70s every time I saw Trump on TV my radar flashed red and went ding, ding, ding. Trump made his mark in branded luxo real estate and casinos, the quintessence of multi-billion dollar cash business money laundering, international money laundering that avoids even the slightest trail of bank fees and records. The perfect crime.
Will Trump abandon a lifetime of con-artistry and deranged Roy Cohn mentoring to rise to the occasion of statesman? Trump v.1 was scattershot and pathetic even discounting the inordinate and extraordinary opposition he encountered and endured, I’m a Marquee of Queensbury rules guy, so I wish him the best and anything is possible in ClownWorld, that’s part of the definition of ClownWorld, why people enter it instead of running in fear, but Trump’s very far down on the list of people I’d put faith in. Funny how some people are passionate about MAGA when from the vantage from the peanut gallery the stakes are nothing better than a coin toss.
Trump v2 is not the rogue usurper he was in v1 when he crashed the GOP clown car, hit HRC with a pie in the face, and ran to victory, this time his role and power has been well brokered between him and the GOP, Rubio being the GOP’s inside man, much better thought through than Pence and shows better organization and control this time around, for the better or worse, who knows, I’m betting the talk of peace in the ME and Ukraine is a con to establish righteous escalation, exactly what the Biden admin was frittering away if not thoroughly lacking. For me that’s what the deep state internecine struggle is about.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 17 2025 10:32 utc | 135
Posted by: Menz | Jan 17 2025 9:25 utc | 137
“British troops will set up points along the buffer zone to be patrolled by fighter jets and attack helicopters. At the rear, rapid reaction forces and third-tier armoured vehicles are ready to repel any attack”
What British troops? What fighter jets? What attack helicopters? What rapid reaction forces? What armoured vehicles?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 17 2025 10:42 utc | 136
I’ve learned to scroll faster, basically looking for links because that means somebody has made a comment and supported their view with a link
Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 17 2025 2:27 utc | 117
I do the same. Let’s hope those trolls don’t start to insert silly links.
To everybody: Please, please ignore the trolls.
I’m in here mostly to learn, because I’m no expert on anything related to the main topics in here. Learning a lot in spite of all the trolling, but some times it’s too much.
I appreciate B’s intermittent editing, he’s doing a great job. Takes a lot of time.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 17 2025 10:43 utc | 137
Erm, how is 20% a ‘majority’? What does the remaining 80% have to say if they could?
Posted by: joey_n | Jan 16 2025 22:17 utc | 92
Yeah, I presented this in a clumsy way. What I meant was that on either one of those questions, the percentage of those agreeing firmly with the mainstream narrative, was roughly 20 percent ahead of the percentage of those who firmly disagreed. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Posted by: grunzt | Jan 17 2025 11:13 utc | 138
@juliania | Jan 17 2025 0:16 utc | 110
Thank you, Juliania.
This will be some nice literature for the evening.
Posted by: Roland | Jan 17 2025 11:18 utc | 139
“The degradation through piss weak moderation is noone’s fault but b’s. ”
Posted by: Englishman in NY | Jan 17 2025 10:40 utc | 146
You cretinous half wit, if you don’t like b’s style, then go elsewhere; but give the man respect for what he’s accomplished rather take piss poor pot shots as above.
And, moron, learn to spell- it’s, ‘no one’, not,’noone.”
Go away, Englishman!