Posted by: motorslug | Jan 16 2025 15:23 utc | 3
##########@
In the absence of real accomplishment make some up.
The American Way since WW2.
The more BS one spouts, the more likely they are to believe it. Words are powerful. They can shape minds and shape perceptions of reality.
Americans are like kids playing with matches.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 16 2025 15:31 utc | 4

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jan 16 2025 15:33 utc | 5
##########
Did the US stay out of Ukraine?
Lost officers, specialists, and materiel.
Not to mention the billions sent as America’s infrastructure continues to disintegrate due to lack of funding and attention.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 16 2025 15:41 utc | 6

I have a bad feeling Trump will do a Ukraine surge. You know after the great successes of the Iraqi and Afghan surges. It’s not a great strategy but is the sort of thing that politicians do.
Plus look how Trump did not get the USA out of Syria or Afghanistan. Just passed the baby.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 15:43 utc | 7
If he doesn’t get a deal he can live with by August? He might.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 15:58 utc | 8

Hellooooo everyone! I never get to post here ,and it’s always treat! Well maybe not for you……
Been lurking for over a decade and B is easily the most consistent blogger I subscribe to.
In regard to Blinken, and the multi armed wrecking machine that is USA foreign policy: When you cannot build, simply destroy.
Long ago and I do know quite when, the decision was made to toss “nation building” in the bin and get on to the dirt biznuss of sabotage and immolation. Just about everything since WW2 seems to be at least in part just that. Controlled Chaos & Creative Destruction is the name of that game. Is it possible that the tide is shifting?
Sure the USA is not about to flip the script and do a 180, no matter that changes on Capitol Hill. But in a wrestling match one has to force ones will on the opponent. Winning on the interwebz does only so much. In the midst of the fire and fury, one thing seems pretty clear to me: Russia is preparing for all eventualities. As such it’s not about expend and over-extend, which provides ample fodder for the “3-Day War” NAFO incels. Yes, they can escalate, and the RF forces can do the same. In the meantime, what goes on the shadows. It’s above my pay grade but I get the sense that it’s huge…..

Posted by: Chevrus | Jan 16 2025 16:18 utc | 10

The lifting of sanctions again touched on. To recap, in his June 2024 speech to the Foreign Office Putin made the lifting of all sanctions a pre-condition of a settlement, that condition repeated by Lavrov in his Newsweek interview.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1957107/
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequences-us-ukraine-1964468
That’s last year. The issue hasn’t gone away. In a brief report on a recent statement by Rubio Tass also picks up on sanctions (my bolding):-
WASHINGTON, January 15. /TASS/. Questions of Kiev’s neutral status and the possible easing of anti-Russian sanctions will ultimately be on the agenda of any Ukrainian conflict settlement talks, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to the post of the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said.
Speaking about the possibility of negotiations on Ukraine, he said: “When you get and sit at the table, <…> you’re going to have to give, not just get. And sanctions, and the release of sanctions could be a part of that, assuming that the conditions are appropriate.”
Commenting on the subject of Ukraine’s neutral status, Rubio emphasized: “Well, obviously that’s something that will ultimately be part of any negotiation.”
https://tass.com/world/1899833
The question of the lifting of sanctions could be a deal-breaker. The EU’s now preparing its 16th sanctions package.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/eu-propose-ban-russian-aluminium-imports-new-sanctions-package-eu-diplomats-say-2025-01-14/
The attitude of Berlin/Brussels/UK towards Russia is hardening rather than softening. Kallas’ position and Ben Wallace’s recent article are two examples of that.
https://www.politico.eu/article/kaja-kallas-european-parliament-hearing-foreign-policy-diplomacy-estonia/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/14/we-must-put-russia-in-a-prison-and-build-the-walls-high/
Elsewhere Kallas states she still hopes for the break-up of the RF. Merz, the likely incoming Chancellor, and UvdL also both remain hawkish, Merz recently calling for deployment of Taurus in Ukraine and I haven’t seen him walking back on that. Macron, as ever, depends which day you take him but most of the time hawkish.
These are not indications that the EU would look favourably on a softening of sanctions, let alone lifting them all.
So the Americans themselves might be looking for negotiations with Russia. Could Trump take the Europeans with him if so?
Hahn, sets out three ways the conflict might end. Remnant Ukraine, or “Rump Ukraine” as I usually see it termed, ruled by a government installed by Russia. A peace settlement that leaves remnant Ukraine as an independent country but neutralised. Or no Ukraine left at all.
“Although Russian puppet regime or Ukraine’s disappearance as an independent state are becoming more likely, peace talks between the future Trump administration and the Kremlin could produce an agreement that allows for an independent, rump and, crucially, neutral and largely military-denuded Ukraine.”
https://gordonhahn.com/2025/01/11/the-potential-for-an-anti-western-ukrainian-turn-to-the-east/
The second end state (independent and neutral) would be by far the best and Hahn speculates on how it might be arrived at. It’s not going to be arrived at, whatever Trump decides, if the Europeans refuse to go along with it.
Looks as if neither Medvedev nor Patrushev are too hopeful that an independent but neutralised remnant Ukraine will be arrived at either.
Medvedev is usually dismissed in the West as a headbanger, ultra hawkish, or at least as a politician who was seen as Atlanticist before the SMO and is now trying to remove that reproach. He does, however, show more understanding than that of the Ukrainian problem as is shown part-way down here:-
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Even so, Medvedev doesn’t seem to see any solution to the problem other than Hahn’s third solution: no Ukraine left. There are plenty of statements from him calling for just that.
Patrushev, a heavyweight and not given to wild talk, concurs:-
“It is possible that in the coming year Ukraine will cease to exist altogether.”
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27651/5036217/
And for good measure he considers the problems of other Russian populations within the EU (my paragraphing):-
” The main priority for us is the protection and well-being of our citizens and compatriots around the world. If we talk about the international aspect, then discrimination against the Russian population in a number of countries, and of course, in the Baltics and Moldova, must be stopped.
“The authorities of these states continue to lead themselves into the deepest crisis with ill-considered actions and at the same time stubbornly twist the Russophobic hurdy-gurdy. The energy crisis is especially indicative, the blame for which lies 100 percent with the Moldovan authorities, obediently carrying out orders from Brussels to reduce gas dependence on Russia.
“Therefore, Chisinau should not deceive itself or its people. The Moldovan authorities should not look for enemies inside the country or in Transnistria, but admit their mistakes and begin to correct the situation.”
The Russian position, even the way the Russians perceive the conflict, is so dramatically different from how the conflict’s usually seen in the West. What the Russians see as problems to be resolved we see as propaganda points to be ignored.
There’s a hope that Trump may be able, if imperfectly, to bridge that gap. I just don’t see the Europeans as similarly able. The question of the lifting of sanctions mentioned by Putin in his June speech linked to above could be the issue that splits the Americans and the Europeans and renders a workable solution to the conflict unlikely. I hope I’m wrong, and that Trump will be able to find a way past the impasse.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 16 2025 16:34 utc | 12

#13
“There’s a hope that Trump may be able, if imperfectly, to bridge that gap. I just don’t see the Europeans as similarly able.”
Sanctions are largely controlled by the US Treasury, although Europe can boycott natural resources etc., but it does not have any “long arm” sanction power as the US does.
Europe will do what it is told to do, for better or worse. Also, I thought all long range weapons strikes via ATACAMs or Storm Shadows require US guidance systems (and permission to use them).

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 16 2025 16:48 utc | 14

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 15:43 utc | 7
Possible, but with what?
Big Serge has pointed out that they’re out of wunderwaffen to escalate with. There are no more F16s, Himars, Javelins, ATACMS left.
Trump isn’t going to be the guy who sends US boots to die. He’d have to convince some Europeans to do that.
So, there is not much he can realistically do other than keep printing money and sending digital quatloos to prop up the regime.
A surge of ones and zeroes?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 17:08 utc | 16

Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 16 2025 16:34 utc | 13
————-
Ha, the EU barks to obfuscate it’s impotence. NATO’s military & economic power is the US alone, no others can apply.
The UK is trying to hide it’s state rot & mass-rape scandals etc, from the world. By acting tough but at the end of the days. There’s no money, no weapons & no armed forces.
Estonian hysteria is an old worn-out trope, in part born out of the need to hide the fact. That the little statelet is a dying welfare case. So the bimbo isn’t saying anything new.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 16 2025 17:13 utc | 18

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 17:10 utc | 18
Holy cr@p! No wonder Ukraine doesn’t want to surrender. Talk about ‘death by a thousand cuts”. Little by little they are wrecking Russia’s interior. They’ve alrady rendered the Black Sea a no go zone for Russian navy.

Posted by: bored | Jan 16 2025 17:31 utc | 20

A surge of ones and zeroes?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 17:08 utc | 17
Europe has almost run out, the us have plenty (if they really want)
Already mentioned several times. But then it would clearly be us vs RF and ww3 just a mater of time if indulged in earnest or for too long

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 17:40 utc | 22

@14 English Outsider. If major European governments and the EU maintain sanctions on Russia after Trump ends them , then I reckon that would hugely benefit the AfD and BSW (anti war parties) in Germany right before the election. People would see their lives going down the drain for a completely discredited position i.e. irrelevant sanctions if America is trading with Russia.
I hope he does this as it will hasten the demise of the entire cadre of vassalised pro-neocon puppets that pass for politicians here. I’m praying for this.
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jan 16 2025 18:04 utc | 24

Max Blumenthal tells it like it is to Blinken the butcher
https://x.com/warmonitors/status/1879949850411954321/mediaviewer

Posted by: Mary | Jan 16 2025 18:16 utc | 26

I have a bad feeling Trump will do a Ukraine surge.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 15:43 utc | 7
###############
I hope that he does.
The weaker and less successful America is, the safer the ROW becomes.
Because Israel is entirely a US endeavor, just as Zionism is Anglo-American colonialism re-branded.
The way to bring down these great evils in the world is for America to be stripped of its hegemony long enough for the ROW to replace it, IMO.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 16 2025 18:22 utc | 28

As milites will probably miss the last thread, I’ll repost it here, particularly because in the mean time I found a first exchange of POW in june 2022, 144 RF soldiers that, with an acquisition cost of 1.250 AFU (terminal, KIA or maimed) casualties, would amount to 180.000 somewhere end of may or slightly later.
Assuming end of may it was enough reducing initial AFU total forces from 500.000 to 480.000 to get it spot on.
REPOST STARTS HERE
curiouser and curiouser
https://tass.com/politics/1899903
Over 2,400 Russian soldiers returned home in 30 POW swaps with Ukraine
In 2024, there were ten exchanges, with 1,266 servicemen being back home
In a first view it would seem to confirm the RF numbers of AFU casualties, more than half 2024, a bit less than half pre-2024
But then I remembered that the kursk caper led to an abnormal number of captured conscripts.
Once I exclude the 594 that ukraine claimed, thank you Z ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/27/russia-ukraine-war-kryvyi-rih-zaporizhzhia-strikes-blackouts)
Then I have a huge disparity for cost of capture.
If I then apply the corrected cost of capture of 2024 to 2022+2023 things look proportionate and compatible with the marines vs grunts model.
And if I further apply the correction of AFU casualties because RF MOD underestimates them based on their own ratios/tables that are much less lethal than the AFU’s (1.4, meaning (1-71%) bonus, implied kill ratio 5.6)* then I get
Double Corrected MOD 2022+2023 2.167.000 (approx)
marines vs grunts 2022+2023 2.175.000 (aprox)
Corrected MOD 2024 842.600 (aprox)
marines vs grunts 2024 842.700 (aprox)
Good enough for me
Just checking out partials applying the same ratio **
Equivalent Est. MOD 2023 1.368.000
marines vs grunts 2023 1.318.000
Equivalent Est. MOD 2022 799.000
marines vs grunts 2022 857.000
* was discussing with milites the starting value might be 66% rounding from historical values and he remembered something close to 2/3 as well, but eyeballing 2022 for specific excess mortality looked closer to 75% (thoough distinguishing covid is not an exact science), so 71% is a plausible number.
** Probably anticipated some of AFU’s deployment of forces, guessed slightly more in 2022 and slightly less in 2023. Was always guesswork from falsified recruitment data and zero data on deployment proper. Or an initial counting from the RF MOD, only KIA at the start, and in that case slight adjustments to the already mentioned ratios, but minor. Will probably use a round 1.250 AFU casualties as price of acquisition of a RF prisioner in the SMO (conscripts excluded)
And that is all for today from you excelmancy seer …
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 4:55 utc | 258

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 18:23 utc | 30

@ Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 18:26 utc | 31
The funniest thing is that AFRF tank forces were supposed to have been almost entirely destroyed back in late 2022. AFU were supposed to have captured hundreds of those tanks intact (which is obviously why they’ve been begging for a donation of a dozen tanks here and there for all these years). Are they telling us Western “experts” lied all this time? Are they telling us those tanks are destroyed now, this time for sure?
They really have no ability to come up with any new lies, have they? Can’t wait for another “viagra rape rampage” story. They’ve only used that one twice.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 16 2025 18:36 utc | 32

Oh yeah, I almost missed the “shoulder-fired anti-armor weapons” part. Ha. Truly quality journalism.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 16 2025 18:39 utc | 34

excitement? Get lost (that’s me being polite) I pointed out Russia couldn’t fucking win a piss up in a brothel. They left the enemies, or do you buy the brother Slav bull shit, major fuel storage facilities intact, for almost three years…..meanwhile, new Bacon report suggests Russia took one on the chin last night, not a pin, or a prick, in sight.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 16 2025 17:40 utc | 21
————-+
Ah, alas your thin skin rather undercuts your tone of smugness & certitude.
If Russia can’t win a piss-up in a brothel, that’s sad news for NATO. Because they couldn’t hold any piss or even find a brothel.
By fuel storage you mean the gas hubs Russia itself was using?
As for the “Bacon report”. Assuming that histrionic toned BS, was even true.
It’d still be a 1/100 ratio to what Ukraine has sustained. Before you even factor in the overall size difference of the two countries.
How about instead of trying to steal attention. Go find yer lucky charms.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 16 2025 18:45 utc | 36

Possible, but with what?
Big Serge has pointed out that they’re out of wunderwaffen to escalate with. There are no more F16s, Himars, Javelins, ATACMS left.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 17:08 utc | 16

Some suggestions:
1) JASSMs and Tomahawks, plus “giving Ukraine” nukes (i.e. situating their there). Which would in many ways be the same thing, because the moment a Tomahawk is flying into Russia it has to be assumed it is carrying a nuke.
2) Another, even larger-scale invasion into Russia. Lots of equipment has been moving in an eastern direction all around Europe.
3) Dismissing the F16s as “another wunderwaffen” is disingenuous, they were never provided in serious numbers and NATO’s air force has not really been used at all. There is a lot of room there for causing real pain.
As long as Putin continues to sit on his hands and refuses to solve his NATO-in-Europe problem, which he can do in half an hour.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 18:56 utc | 38

@38
Big Serge touched on the JASSMs and concluded that they would not offer much beyond what Ukraine/NATO has already done with ATACMS.
Tomahawks require a launching system and are mostly naval based, so very hard to keep up the charade that its the Ukrainians doing it and not a direct NATO attack on Russia.
However, there are good reasons for Russia to get serious in 2025 and put a stop to the escalation. Preparing for a 10-year war with NATO and telling the citizens that the US is their enemy number 1 would be a start. Opportunity cost sucks – there should have already been consequences like Al-Tanf turned into rubble and the US bases in E. Syria destroyed by now.
Now that Syria is lost that would look like pure revenge. Russia does have the ability to kill Al-Julani and ally with the Kurds to make Erdogan miserable.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 19:16 utc | 40

[PMR bla-bla-bla]
The Russian position, even the way the Russians perceive the conflict, is so dramatically different from how the conflict’s usually seen in the West. What the Russians see as problems to be resolved we see as propaganda points to be ignored.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 16 2025 16:34 utc | 12

This is absolute bollocks.
Putin’s default MO for a quarter century has been to sit on his hands and hope that if he ignores problems sufficiently stubbornly, they will go away on their own.
It is how the whole Ukraine mess was created in the first place (in what position was the Kremlin with respect to Ukraine in 1999, then how did it change in 2005, 2014, and 2022?).
And how Russia has been pushed back geostrategically on many other fronts.
But it is not just that Putin is a lethargic boomer who abhors rocking the boat in any way, there is a deeper reason for it – Putin was installed in power in order to make sure the 1990s regime stabilized itself and the communists never took power back. Which they would have done in 1996 if the elections were fairly called, and quite likely would have done in 2000 if the trick with the power hand off was not played on the Russian population (because things only got worse after 1996).
In order to stabilize the fundamentals of the 1990s regime – an economic oligarchy getting wealthy by taking a percentage of the fire sale of Russia’s natural resources to the West while repressing any serious internal industrial development (because that would threaten their power) – the country had to undergo a bit of a recovery and the oligarchy had to reduce its visible hold over power, turning back a bit of it to the official state apparatus. Kind of like the move FDR played in the 1930s in order to prevent a communist revolution in the US.
And that program was successfully carried out – (some) Russian cities are shiny and relatively clean, a middle class was created (never mind that most people are not part of it), the military was resurrected a bit too, state capacity was somewhat restored (but of course nowhere near what it used to be in Soviet times or what it is still is in China)
But the fundamentals remained the same, which was the important objective.
And also what prevents any kind of proactive foreign policy, because in that arrangement – Russia sells natural resources to the West, the Russian oligarchy pockets a percentage of the proceeds – there is no room for Russia being a real independent center of power carrying out proactive foreign policy.
What you describe as Russians seeing “problems to be resolved” is actually the Kremlin hoping to avoid having to solve anything by making yet another shitty deal and kicking the can down the road once again, only for it to eventually blow up in their face.
The PMR problem has a very clear solution – take Kherson and Zaporozhye city, then Nikolaev and Odessa and connect to the PMR directly. Putin has refused to allocate the necessary forces to do that for three years now. He didn’t even allocate them even in 2022, which is why the initial incursion towards Voznesensk and attempted siege of Nikolaev failed so miserably (it was absolutely pathetic forces being sent there, which would have succeeded only if the local authorities surrendered without a fight; but they didn’t).
Right now there is no conceivable military operation that does not involve tactically nuking historically Russian land that can get them to the PMR on a time scale that would prevent a catastrophe there if the West and Kiev decide to play hard ball.
That leaves only one option — credibly threaten Romania with being erased from existence. Which Putin would have already done if he was serious about solving the problem. But you see what kind of stupid nonsense is coming from the Kremlin, so clearly there is no such seriousness. Once again…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 19:19 utc | 42

@38
Big Serge touched on the JASSMs and concluded that they would not offer much beyond what Ukraine/NATO has already done with ATACMS.
Tomahawks require a launching system and are mostly naval based, so very hard to keep up the charade that its the Ukrainians doing it and not a direct NATO attack on Russia.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 19:16 utc | 40

You have no idea what you are talking about.
First, the Tomahawk launch cells can easily be placed in shipping containers, and in fact that is exactly what the US has already done. Which makes them easily concealable within the civilian infrastructure. There is no need for ships or submarines. It is also why if Russia is to be safe from an attack from NATO in Europe, it will soon have to basically sterilize most of the western Eurasian subcontinent with very large multi-megaton warheads as you don’t know where the missiles are, so you have to destroy absolutely everything to take them out. The clock is ticking — the US is deploying these things right as we speak.
Second, what the JASSMs and the Tomahawks will offer is a complete strategic defeat of Russia with the mere act of them being used without a total nuclear annihilation of at least NATO in Europe occurring within minutes of the first launch.
Why? Because both of those are nuclear delivery systems.
So if Russia allows those things to be flying all over the country, that means the early warning system that normally ensure a launch-on-warning response to such an attack would have to be basically shut down and from there on ignore these as nuclear threats.
The next step is obvious — once Russia has been accustomed to receiving deep cruise missiles attacks without responding, the warheads are swapped with real nukes and a first strike (it will likely be combined with other attack vectors) is carried out.
Again, the moment Russia concedes on those things being fired into its territory, it loses everything.
In fact, we are way further along that trajectory than anyone ever expected — Storm Shadows and ATACMS (both of which are in fact nuclear capable, even if not officially) on their own are a completely totally unimaginable mere three years ago unacceptable precedent to be set, and if Russia was a serious country not captured by traitors, Putin would have already suffered Nicholas II’s fate, but not in some hidden location in the Urals, but publicly in the middle of the Red Square, for allowing this to happen.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 19:33 utc | 44

“Plus look how Trump did not get the USA out of Syria or Afghanistan. Just passed the baby.”
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 15:43 utc | 7
No, Trump made the plan to get out of Afghanistan-Biden fucked it up.(1) Trump ordered his generals to leave Syria but they obey the order (2)
With all due respect y7ou don’t know what you are talking about.
1. “One of Donald Trump’s campaign promises was to end the war in Afghanistan. In 2020, he negotiated an agreement with the Taliban to withdraw all U.S. forces by May 1 of 2021. “(3)
2. “WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper said Sunday that President Trump ordered a withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria, a decision that will effectively cede control of the area to the Syrian government and Russia, and could allow a resurgence of the Islamic State.” (40
3. https://www.npr.org/2021/03/04/973604904/trumps-deal-to-end-war-in-afghanistan-leaves-biden-with-a-terrible-situation
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/us/politics/mark-esper-syria-kurds-turkey.html

Posted by: canuck | Jan 16 2025 19:35 utc | 46

In the recurring Title Fights with Brutus, the USA, trying to pummel smaller Foreign “enemies” sometimes with assistance, sometimes via Proxy, Trump, the new Captain Blunderbuss, is eying smaller “friendly countries” who naively believed Americans kept their word.
Now Canada, years ago killed her Avro Arrow jet fighter program, encouraged the engineers to move to U-all land, is going to have to keep the eager “U.S.A, U.S.A.” Trumpsters from crossing the northern border with long, persuavive letters and cat-calls. Maybe even tears of sorrow as the Jackboots goosestep in the glorious Northern Sudetland.
And it is darn good thing that Pierre Trudeau,jr. tried to pull all those .22 Squirrel rifles from the dangerous farmers in the fields and forest.
12 key points and the lights and energy go out.

Posted by: kupkee | Jan 16 2025 19:46 utc | 48

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 19:33 utc | 44
Fuck off sob liar!

Posted by: Naive | Jan 16 2025 19:54 utc | 50

on tanks
from David Axe, Forbes
For the first time in Russia’s 35-month wider war on Ukraine, the Ukrainians may have a tank advantage over the Russians. But only along certain stretches of the 800-mile front line.
“Our tanks can only operate from covered positions,” one Russian blogger complained in a long missive translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated.
Reduced to firing from camouflaged positions miles behind the front line, Russian tanks are essentially inaccurate howitzers—and not the assault-leading combat vehicles their designers intended.
By contrast, Ukrainian tanks operate “more freely,” the blogger claimed.
It all comes down to drones, as is often the case in a war that is increasingly dominated by robotic systems of all types. “The enemy has achieved sufficient scale and variety in its drones and has honed its tactics for their use,” the blogger explained.
Anywhere along the front line where the Ukrainians have managed to deploy two company-sized drone groups, each with a few dozen operators, Russian tanks “simply don’t reach the line for launching an attack,” according to the blogger. They get droned miles behind the line of contact. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 20:05 utc | 52

By the way, unlike Friedrich Merz, both Sahra Wagenknecht and Angela Merkel are from East Germany.
Posted by: grunzt | Jan 16 2025 20:14 utc | 54

And that worked out so well for both Russia and Germany with Merkel…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 20:21 utc | 54

@38
Big Serge touched on the JASSMs and concluded that they would not offer much beyond what Ukraine/NATO has already done with ATACMS.
Tomahawks require a launching system and are mostly naval based, so very hard to keep up the charade that its the Ukrainians doing it and not a direct NATO attack on Russia.
However, there are good reasons for Russia to get serious in 2025 and put a stop to the escalation. Preparing for a 10-year war with NATO and telling the citizens that the US is their enemy number 1 would be a start. Opportunity cost sucks – there should have already been consequences like Al-Tanf turned into rubble and the US bases in E. Syria destroyed by now.
Now that Syria is lost that would look like pure revenge. Russia does have the ability to kill Al-Julani and ally with the Kurds to make Erdogan miserable.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2025 19:16 utc | 40
I, bowing profoundly to big serge, will disagree.
7.500 JASSMs, god knows how many Tomahawks, enough f-16 (and even f-15) with pilots, hundreds of patriots, hundreds of M1 and a shit-ton of bradleys, plus mercs and foederati from easter vassals.
Even if they just take a third for RF, it would be plenty.
BUT that would mean direct war between RF and the us, and ww3 if beyond a certain level and/or lasting too long.
But the lever is there and why I think a decade worth of truce is in order. Trump just gave Putin 6 months to get what he can…

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 20:45 utc | 56

seizing crimea and invading Ukraine, accepting annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk is “Putin sitting on his hands”.
and then I just scroll on by the rest of his repetitive screed.
just a different term than “yet putin doesn’t lift a finger” which he stated constantly every other post for a year as shadowbanned.
I wonder why he went with a sock account. Ashamed of all his previous stupidity and alarmist predictions that never came true?
Thought nobody would notice he is still the same weeping hysterical woman because of a moniker change?

Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 20:50 utc | 58

@54 Grüntür.
I agree we are likely to get Merz and his Taurus promise. Well see if he actually delivers that while Trump is trying to negotiate. My guess is he’ll hold off if Trump puts him under pressure…for a time at least.
Eventually, if the European leadership don’t change course the economic catastrophe will force a change and in electoral terms I would guess the firewall between the AfD and other parties will fail-if they get enough votes. This has happened elsewhere in Europe.
But, things will need to get alot worse (under the existing political leadership) before they get better (hopefully) under a new generation not owned by Washington.

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jan 16 2025 20:56 utc | 60

Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 20:05 utc | 52
Is your brain not giving you a warning when you quote msm that quotes some blogger’s translation of another blogger? Turn off the computer, you waste energy, but thanks for the entertainment

Posted by: rk | Jan 16 2025 21:02 utc | 62

Other suggestions?
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 21:04 utc | 66
nuke Romania and Poland, of course.

Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:13 utc | 64

Urban Fox@36….I steal nothing, you give it for free….here, let me scratch behind your ear, there’s a good boy…..wanna play fetch…..
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 16 2025 21:18 utc | 66

it is an internal Russian civil war,
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:13 utc | 67
no it isn’t. you just abuse the meanings of words, and then heap more assumptions and guesses on top of it, with more twisting of meaning, while applying declartive adjectives and adverbs to make it sound like you are supremely confident in your bullshit.
If it were an internal Russian civil war, there would be civil war inside Russia. There is nothing of the sort, quite the opposite, the people of Russia love Putin. Love him. Oh yes love him. So no “internal” civil war in Russia.
I find it amazing how you can just run round and round with your logic until you feel safe to blurt out the most inane lies and idiotic statements, one after the other, and yet I am sure you actually think you sound smart.
Every phrase you use is contrarian idiocy, looking for a bite so you can practice more semantic sophistry, and tell yourself how smart and clever you are, and what a great military genius you are.
Russian internal civil war?
stupid.

Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:25 utc | 68

it is an internal Russian civil war,
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:13 utc | 67
no it isn’t. you just abuse the meanings of words, and then heap more assumptions and guesses on top of it, with more twisting of meaning, while applying declartive adjectives and adverbs to make it sound like you are supremely confident in your bullshit.
[…]
Russian internal civil war?
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:25 utc | 72

Yes. Ukraine is core historic Russian territory, that, because Putin sat on his hands for two years, was successfully turned into a battering ram against the center.
Right now we have the descendants of the Nazis (in Lvov as well as in Europe and Canada/the US) occupying the same territory they did in the 1940s, but they are using mostly ethnic Russians to fight the war for them, i.e. it is a civil war stoked from the outside.
Allowing things to get to that point is the defining failure of Putinism.
Once again, go back to 1999 and compare where the Kremlin stood with respect to Kiev then to the current situation. How did that change happen? Who is responsible?

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 21:36 utc | 70

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 21:36 utc | 74
get all the sophistry and semantics you want out?
Here is another hook for you to practice your sophistry and semantics on:
“internal” civil war would not mean the vast majority of materiel for one side being donated by 50 nations from around the world.
Remember, Russians love Putin. Live him. Men are volunteering by the tens, if not hundreds of thousands, to help him, and die if necessary. That is how much they trust his foresight, leadership and strategy
Not you. Nobody would ever trust you. every word out of your mouth is blatant lies hoping for someone to spar with you. This is your life. A bunch of blah blah blah… …you are the one “sitting on your hands”, not Putin. You.

Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:46 utc | 72

nuke Romania and Poland, of course.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:13 utc | 67
But mainly nuke ANON2022.
Care bear extraordinaire, nukist extreme, slavophilic (but only in a bizarre sexual way)
Sometimes I think we’re too hard on vargas (not suggesting going hard on ANON2022, he would undoubtedly enjoy it)
And why do you answer? Feed not the troll, whe you feed into the troll, the troll feedsback at you…

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 21:52 utc | 74

The Great Vladamir putin is why we are all alive right now.
Nucular war has’nt happened so far. Yet.
Say thank you mr Putin.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 16 2025 21:58 utc | 76

Remember, Russians love Putin. Live him. Men are volunteering by the tens, if not hundreds of thousands, to help him, and die if necessary. That is how much they trust his foresight, leadership and strategy
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 21:46 utc | 76

They are volunteering because there is no other choice – the country has to be defended.
But they are definitely not volunteering in the numbers they would have if there was a proper conduct of the war. Putin is failing abysmally on both the internal propaganda front, where the objective is to make it seem like there is no war going on, much less an existential one, and on the actual front lines, where he has explicitly forbidden the Russian military from striking the targets that will win the war.
Well, under those circumstances is it any wonder that few people are voluntarily signing up to fight in war in which very little of what leadership has the power to do to help them win and not get killed is actually being done? Worse, some of what the soldiers on the ground can do themselves they are directly not allowed to do, and they are getting killed as a result. That is never good for morale.
They are not even volunteering in sufficient numbers. Which is why the sign up bonuses had to be raised repeatedly.
Again, not surprising.
Also, if you got your news from the actual primary sources, and not from Western “alternative media” with a vested interest in catering to the preconceived understanding of the world of its audience, you would know that Putin is not exactly a popular figure among the soldiers on the front lines. You know, the ones that have to try to stay alive while being hunted by the FPV drones and NATO artillery that are streaming freely across the Polish and Romanian borders while Putin has the power to stop those flows literally in half an hour but refuses to do it for a third, almost entering a fourth year now. Everyone would be mad about it in such a position, and rightfully so.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 22:01 utc | 78

He said it is “similar”, you say it is, and not only that, but “internal”. A word you added because you like to just throw in words with meaning to try and boost your semantic arguments, without a care for the meaning of the word. You just use it for impact.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 22:00 utc | 83

It’s not the only time he has said it, and he is not the only Russian official to have said it. It was just the first quote that popped up.
You can search for more on your own leisure.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 22:03 utc | 80

For the silos and for the outdated Virginias you got the Hazelnut of course…You take out the the over the horizon radar in Greenland and Alaska and then: Happy fishing!
Posted by: Horst Mahler | Jan 16 2025 21:57 utc | 81

Out of range from current positions.
Of course, the Soviets did place RSD-10 missiles in Chukotka precisely for that purpose, and if the Oreshnik has the same range, it is the ideal tool for the job, carrying so many separable warheads.
But have you seen Orehsniks being deployed in Chukotka? It will be hard to conceal (it was already impossible in the 1980s, and in fact Ustinov had to fight hard for it to happen in part because of such skepticism), and we have heard nothing about it, so we have to assume they are not there.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 22:06 utc | 82

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 16 2025 18:26 utc | 31
As with any report, bordering on the hyperbolic, there’s of things to consider,
1. Destroyed, what category of destroyed? M-Kill, F-Kill, or K-Kill (which this ‘report’ infers)?
The number is suspiciously accurate, and possibly suggestive of backwards analysis (looking at storage yards and calculating probable loss rates). If it was a product of real intel it would not be publicly revealed.
The figure itself is strange, given the previous reporting of Russian tank losses, during the conflict.
‘22-‘23: 5,571
‘24: 3,689
‘22-‘25: 9,971
2. In some parts of the front, Ukraine now outnumbers Russia in tanks.
A)So what? it’s called concentration of forces. The Germans were able to do the same in ‘44-‘44, with the Allies, even when most German soldiers never saw a tank in their sector, what matters is having armour when and where it’s needed.
B) It hasn’t helped them in any of their recent ‘offensives’ or counter-attacks, so even if this was true, regarding critical sectors, it’s a ‘superiority’ that is largely ineffective.
3. Hand held weapons have largely been the cause
All weapons are ‘hand-held’, again be aware of the lying by inference, a CLGP, drone and mine are all, technically, ‘hand-held’.
4. There’s no comparison with Ukrainian tank losses that have been restocked three times now.
5. If you read the piece it focuses very heavily on the T-90, accurately reporting the reasons for the tank struggling to protect itself, but neglecting to mention the situation is identical with the Western MBT’s used by Ukraine. This is suggestive of an anti-export hit piece, designed to hide Western AFV vulnerabilities by belittling the T-90.
I’d see this also as a defeat narrative that is now ready for publication, having gone through several draft copies. It’s similar to those crafted in the dying days of the Third Reich and probably for similar reasons.
I’m sure the Russian armoured forces have struggled to adapt and have suffered heavy losses, as a result, but critically so have the Ukrainian armoured forces, with technically more sophisticated and protected platforms. Tanks have had a rough time in the SMO, because their appearance on the battlefield coincided with the end-phase of a programme to massively enhance infantry AT capabilities, spurred on by the defensive capabilities of the latest armoured platforms.
The tank, in essence, has been a victim of its own success, just like any other previously decisive weapon system, as every solution will eventually become a problem.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 16 2025 22:09 utc | 84

There is a solid majority of 20% of the population supporting the sanctions and weapon deliveries, and painting Putin as an aggressor who will proceed to invade one European country after another

Posted by: grunzt | Jan 16 2025 20:14 utc | 54
Erm, how is 20% a ‘majority’? What does the remaining 80% have to say if they could?

Posted by: joey_n | Jan 16 2025 22:17 utc | 86

@Naive | Thu, 16 Jan 2025 19:54:00 GMT | 50

Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 16 2025 19:33 utc | 44
Fuck off sob liar!

I avoid all the Anons – Anonymous, anonymous, ANON2022. They read off the same script, if not actually being the same person.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 16 2025 22:31 utc | 88

DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4467003/32.0581055
Winter slowdown continues. Only 12.7 kmsq taken today. Compare to 13.5/day in DEC and 23/day in NOV.
All gains in the Donetsk, mostly S Donetsk (one tiny gain in Chasiv Yar).
Strategically, RFA making good progress on Velyka Novasilka (next down just S of it taken).
Also, on the Pokrovsk front, RFA is making small but relevant progress cutting a supply road and moving NE at Kotylne (not being pushed W into Udachne). This is desirable to sort of move towards the center of the bicycle wheel of Pokrovsk (and cross off other spokes of supply roads). If they get pushed too far W, it becomes a larger challenge to move N and hit last three roads.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 22:36 utc | 90

also, I will add, Anonymous has neen right for at least a year about the pace of the war, while so many here continuously forecast collapse and sweeping offensives and end of war by 2024 nonsense.
He has been realistic in his assessments, and his criticisms of the SMO’s pace were valid. He rarely resorts to hyperbole or hyperventilating bullshit like shadowbanned aka ANON2022 does in every post.
And most of all, as far as predictions, he has been cautious and mostly right, while shadowbanned has been so abysmally wrong so many times he thought creating a sock account would somehow help his laughable reputation here.
So I doubt those two are the same.
Same with anonymous2020, who started out a little hot-headed and full of knowitallness, but eventually seemed to actually research before giving assessments, though I dont see him around much anymore.
“anonymous” is highly likely shadowbanned, and ANON2022 definitely is. This is his life, probably moreso even than B. That and he also comments at simpliciius as GM.

Posted by: uwdude | Jan 16 2025 22:44 utc | 92

@YetAnotherAnon
It really is astonishing how quickly Britain deteriorated as a country. Makes one wonder how it was ever possible for them to control such a huge part of the world not too long ago. Deliberate application of violence of course, but also a sense of effective organization at home I’d say. The somewhat belanced (for the time) stratification of their society probably helped. Just like Aristotle at one point described a well functioning state as one where oligarchy and democracy go well in hand. A lesson the Romans took to heart.
But unlike the Romans the Brits have no clarity of purpose and even of style. Depictions of Britain in the 19th century show a world so dreary and unaesthetic that it almost should not exist.
(oh and @UWDude: some very nice jabs at the loonies!)

Posted by: Roland | Jan 16 2025 23:27 utc | 94

No, erasing the entire population by NBC as fast as possible is plan 1 of 1. Just look how they use conventional weapons today
Posted by: rk | Jan 16 2025 23:33 utc | 103
both soviet and American nuclear doctrine has always focused on destroying military targets as the primary objective. Not to avoid human rights lawsuits afterward, but because that is how you win a war.

Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 23:41 utc | 96

actually, Anonymous went from an annoying broken record to a useful and appreciated source of data with his daily captured land updates.
That takes effort and discipline, not just long winded bloviating and ranting, which is all shadowbanned has ever done.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 16 2025 22:35 utc | 97
DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4467003/32.0581055
Winter slowdown continues. Only 12.7 kmsq taken today. Compare to 13.5/day in DEC and 23/day in NOV.
All gains in the Donetsk, mostly S Donetsk (one tiny gain in Chasiv Yar).
Strategically, RFA making good progress on Velyka Novasilka (next down just S of it taken).
Also, on the Pokrovsk front, RFA is making small but relevant progress cutting a supply road and moving NE at Kotylne (not being pushed W into Udachne). This is desirable to sort of move towards the center of the bicycle wheel of Pokrovsk (and cross off other spokes of supply roads). If they get pushed too far W, it becomes a larger challenge to move N and hit last three roads.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 16 2025 22:36 utc | 98
And there we go.
True and thank you
time to do my thing as well, very little to show or tell from yesterday, so off with the sum up with it’s lower casualties day
“APU attack on the Kursk region
Continuation of the destruction of the Nazis who invaded the territory of Russia.
Liberation of new regions of the Russian Federation
Offensive on Velikaya Novoselka, entrance to Vremevka. Moving almost 2 km south of the Spill. Compression of the Kurakhovsky boiler – expansion of control to the south of Dachnoye. Expansion of control in Petropavlovsk, Yasenevoye, Uspenovka, Kotlino, Vozdvizhenka. Promotion in Zverevo, Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
A day earlier: Full release of the Ukrainian woman. Compression of the Kurakhovsky cauldron from Sukhoi Yal. Advancing several kilometers from Vishnevoye to Zeleny Gai.
Daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 1,885 soldiers, including 580 in the Pokrovsky direction (Center), 470 in Kupyansk (West), 260 in Donetsk (South), 240 in South Donetsk (East), 85 in Kherson (Dnieper), 40 in Kharkiv (North). 210 militants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed in the Kursk direction.”

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2025 23:53 utc | 98

Jo@89….Russia will not be negotiating with the the USA, Mr Putin will have to negotiate with Mr Zielinski, once he is reselected…..
…..must be the Lucky Charms…..
Cheers M
I see Zielinski took the high road for now and nixed the lowering of the draft age. Smart move on his part, little fuck, he’s just an actor, damn he plays the arch villan part well though…..

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 17 2025 0:02 utc | 100