News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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January 12, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-008
Comments
Posted by: Milites | Jan 14 2025 18:14 utc | 290 “I’d like to know of a war that was cheaper than the projections.”
Ha, true. Maybe the 1st Gulf War (1991)?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 14 2025 22:26 utc | 303
Nopes 😀
https://www.gao.gov/products/t-nsiad-91-34
“GAO discussed the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) and the Department of Defense’s (DOD) cost estimates of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. GAO noted that: (1) from the inception of the operation in August 1990 through February 1991, OMB reported incremental costs of $31.6 billion, including combat costs; (2) OMB has found no evidence to dispute the DOD $12.2-billion cost estimate for a 3-month post-combat period and redeployment; (3) the GAO-estimated incremental funding requirements for fiscal year (FY) 1991 was about $33 billion, which was lower than the OMB and DOD $60-billion cost estimate, mainly because OMB included FY 1990 costs which had already been funded, used cost estimates rather than actual costs, and included anticipated expenditures that may not result in the obligation of funds; and (4) U.S. allies contributed about $32 billion to the defense cooperation account and were expected to contribute an additional $15.3 billion. GAO believes that the overall operation costs could total more than $100 billion including $50 billion to raise, equip, and maintain the deployed force.”
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 22:41 utc | 301
It doesn’t look to me like Ukraine is attacking “random” targets. They have a plan, how likely it is to succeed is unknown. They also have a lot of constraints. Both in regard to their capacity to strike things deep in Russia and what they are ‘allowed’ to hit.
It looks like someone did something of an input output economic analysis.
Yesterday they claim they hit: Engels oil depot, chemical plant in Bryansk producing ammunition and missile components, as well as oil depots in Saratov and Tatarstan. In Tatarstan the alleged target was the Kalaykino oil pumping station, the largest transport hub for pumping oil from Siberia to the European part of the country.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 14 2025 22:40 utc | 306
Agreed, there is a method behind the madness.
Hope putin and planners have some leeway in redundancy beyond range of attack (and hope they make the us pay in a nice deniable asymmetric way)
What the west seems to forget is that RF has plenty of hard resources, and serious STEM graduates+ to rebuild and take the occasion to make some ussrs time facilities much leaner and efficient.
A second level analysis indicates they might end pruning a lot of things that should be torn down…
That’s the problem with static analysis.
sh*t, I’m going back to mentat N level analysis stuff, consequences…
P.S. on a slightly OT, there was an article somewhere these last days that mentioned the us’s lack of progress in creating hardened structures for their airforce, compared with iran’s serious work on deeply buried hangars and extensive redundant airstrips.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 22:49 utc | 302
Yup, because the arguments in favour of AGW are so weak that they could not survive any impartial scrutiny. If your opponents are screaming that you should be locked up for daring to question the ‘settled science’ (a.contradiction in terms) then it’s doubtful that they are that confident of their position, beyond cultic rationalisation.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 19:45 utc | 296
There is that part where the temperature started rising at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and keeps rising at higher rates of increase. That makes the denial a scosh harder. Scott Adam’s is a denier and he said the other day that no one knows the temperature all around the world. Apparently that statement is to discount that the temperatures that they do measure keep rising. Presumably he thinks there are lots of places getting colder that we don’t measure.
Posted by: Dilbert | Jan 14 2025 22:59 utc | 303
Posted by: louis | Jan 14 2025 22:18 utc | 302
Even if what you state is true, which my bet is it isnt as it reads like Western propaganda, it is a war that they are having against a NATO client state. There will be damage. They survived so far and are leading so honestly, that is a wonder.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2025 23:04 utc | 304
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Jan 14 2025 18:31 utc | 291
“However, executive agreements, which do not require Senate approval, have been used by presidents in the past, but these are typically less formal than treaties and might not carry the same weight or permanence.”
This is new to me. Do you have any examples you could cite?
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 14 2025 23:06 utc | 305
This is new to me. Do you have any examples you could cite?
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 14 2025 23:06 utc | 311
Aí cara? Olha o reconhecimento da união sovietica por exemplo.
Se deixou de entender portugues tenta aqui…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_agreement
P.S. sorry couldn’t help “zoar com vocé” where did you live in paraná? Curitiba mesmo?
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 23:17 utc | 306
Two things appear evident
first, Russia is fighting a tactical war to conquer territory, while NATO is conducting a strategic war to destroy Russia’s industrial technical and economic capabilities.
second, the famed ‘world’s best anti-aircraft systems’ are abundantly proven to be very so-so, not better than western ones. As it has been said ‘Bombers (or missiles) will always pass’.
Have you noted that russian missile campaign against the electrical grid and factories in UKR has ground to a halt, as well as the use of gliding bombs and in general air force activity?
Maybe it is related to attacks on producing factories for those weapons?
Posted by: louis | Jan 14 2025 23:20 utc | 307
Kalitta Air freighter leaves Rzsezow for South Korea, presumably to collect more weaponry for Ukraine. I assume it’s just unloaded.
https://www.flightradar24.com/CKS9901/38ba0bf0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalitta_Air
“The airline provides domestic and international scheduled or on-demand cargo service and support for the requirements of the Department of Defense Air Mobility Command.”
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n701ck
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 14 2025 23:30 utc | 308
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 22:41 utc | 307
You need to look at the testimony in front of Congress before Congress voted to authorize the war. At that time the costs for what became Desert Storm estimated to be much higher than it turned out. Both in money and casualties.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 14 2025 23:37 utc | 309
Daily DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Slow pace for JAN, continues with only 10.0 kmsq taken. Compare to 14/day in DEC or 23/day in NOV.
Somehow, despite all the video blogger clickbait about Russia advancing like crazy, the actual pace has slackened, not accelerated. That’s the benefit of looking at data vice bro-sint,
Advances were all in S Donetsk from the Uspenivka pocket (the old one) up to Pokrovsk vicinity to Chasiv Yar.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 14 2025 23:43 utc | 310
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 22:49 utc | 308 “P.S. on a slightly OT, there was an article somewhere these last days that mentioned the us’s lack of progress in creating hardened structures for their airforce, compared with iran’s serious work on deeply buried hangars and extensive redundant airstrips.”
Absolutely. The people making those decisions still think that the 2 oceans will still protect their US based assets and that is about to be no longer true. Stuff overseas is even more a risk.
Those satellite pictures of the Israeli F-35 hangers showed it would need a direct strike to damage whatever was inside. A 50 pound drone wasn’t going to do it. While a lot of US aircraft are a risk from a 10 pound drone.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 14 2025 23:43 utc | 311
I do recommend you also find something else to do with your life besides hog this forum with your opinionated blathering 24/7/365 of every comment — and take that LoudDumbass muslim with you.
Posted by: Jake Barnherd | Jan 14 2025 23:44 utc | 318
Take your own advice, Jake.
Posted by: Martina | Jan 15 2025 0:01 utc | 312
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 14 2025 23:43 utc | 316
Have you stopped to think that maybe DS is even more compromised, after Syrsky tried to shut it down?
@guest from franconia
How dare you question the almighty and all-powerful Dima? Prepare to be embarrassed!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 15 2025 0:39 utc | 313
Posted by: louis | Jan 14 2025 23:20 utc | 313
The reduction in FAB’s is probably because
Russia has very few all weather strike platforms, in comparison to her total complement of GA aircraft
Russia know’s the war’s first phase is ending soon, so stockpiling is the order of the day.
As for AD
The Russian systems are world class, but they cannot be everywhere. This was the real threat the ATACMS posed, it massively increased the area of vulnerability that Russia had to cover, things will therefore invariably get through. As I posted before, the US can cut IRS and logistics support to,Ukraine effectively ending the war, whether they choose to do so depends on how Trump will implement his MAGA agenda.
Posted by: Jake Barnherd | Jan 14 2025 23:44 utc | 318
I don’t think the poster has ever claimed expertise, or even intimated it, so why the quotation marks?
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2025 0:45 utc | 314
Posted by: Jake Barnherd | Jan 14 2025 23:44 utc | 318 Trump and the end of the war
Will Putin go along with freezing the war on the current lines? Ukraine has a small piece of Russia and not all of what they have legally claimed in Ukraine?
So Ukraine goes along with Trump to freeze the war, and Putin doesn’t, what does Trump do?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 15 2025 0:53 utc | 315
Posted by: Lutz Taufer | Jan 15 2025 0:52 utc | 322 “The Russian Federation’s oil production has been hit hard in the last few months, the tanker fleet has virtually ceased to exist”
I don’t know how hard Russia’s oil production has been hit. What metrics do you have to demonstrate that? And the Russian shadow fleet is still there. There might be issues in March when the latest sanctions go into place but until then it appears to be business as usual
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 15 2025 0:56 utc | 316
I miss the other trolls. Where are they, by the way?
In other news, AFU itself confirms transfer of Air Force personal into existing infantry brigades. Not “urgently needed engineering and aviation specialists” but “certain categories” and “other branches” of Air Force, whatever that means. Probably Air Defense staff.
This AFU General Staff response appears to be an attempt to cover their ass after another public complaint, this time by Air Force personal, about being transferred to infantry. I guess MiG-29 technicians aren’t “urgently needed” anymore. Wonder why.
Another important bit from that report is that AFU itself officially confirms lack of infantry, contradicting everyone’s favorite piano player once again.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 1:08 utc | 317
320 Ghost:
Even if DS is off conservative, if you look at day to day changes, especially over a month, then you get the rate of advance.
Let’s say Divgen (to pick an example of a Russian shill) shows 100 kmsq too much for the RFA. And DS is the opposite, 100 kmsq too little. If the RFA is driving, it’s not possible not to show it, eventually. So even if the baselines are different, the rate of change should be similar.
It’s also by far the most detailed map and the easiest to use in terms of the controls, numbers, etc.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 15 2025 1:15 utc | 318
Has yet another red line been crossed?
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/14/europe/ukraine-russia-drone-missile-attack-intl-hnk/index.html
In the beginning of this conflict, nobody would have imagined Ukraine striking the territory of Russia proper. Now it seems to happen weekly.
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Jan 15 2025 1:18 utc | 319
Posted by: Lutz Taufer | Jan 15 2025 1:13 utc | 326
The latest balance sheet I can find is as of June 30, 2024. Revenue is down slightly and Net Profit is certainly down. Otherwise the 2nd Quarter isn’t that much different from the previous quarters. What does the 3rd Quarter look like?
What is the basis for the claim on the shadow fleet?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 15 2025 1:43 utc | 320
I don’t think the poster has ever claimed expertise, or even intimated it, so why the quotation marks?
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2025 0:45 utc | 321
I did not indeed, the few things I might be considered and expert on… I have seldom, if at all discussed them here at MOA.
But there are a ton of things I like learning about, and sometimes share (hoping someone finds it useful for whatever they enjoy thinking about and discussing), and asking because there might be someone with something i didn’t know and need to reason better.
Thank you (and martina) for your words, there is a point that the guy is not wrong, yes, I spend too much time here, but often feel like its time well spent.
For all that like it as it is, and for those that don’t (suck it)
A beautiful phrase from Lavrov on ukraine (I quoted trump on this on his last interview/speech and wished facebook kept its “fact checking” log enough to ban all the news agencys that called this a lie)
“Trump was the first Western politician to honestly acknowledge that NATO acted in bad faith when it signed numerous security agreements.
“It was the first time when not only an American leader, but also any Western leader articulated honestly that NATO was lying when it signed multiple documents both with my country and within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,” the minister said.”
More here https://tass.com/politics/1899205
And it directly and indirectly concerns ukraine and thereof this thread
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 15 2025 1:45 utc | 321
That is it — took 2.5 hours to say only that!
Posted by: anonymous | Jan 15 2025 1:31 utc | 335
…etc
On the one hand I will thank you for a sum up (better or worse you did it and shared it), on the other let people see if subtleties and additional things are there
You are talking about one of major diplomats in the last century, some respect and being humble would suit you.
State what you think he left unsaid, discuss what was only subtly grazed, haven’t had the time to read it but I’m sure there is plenty.
If you expected more and were disappointed, that’s life, sometimes we try to deduce, or even just guess, why… That’s why we’re here.
MOA is the right place to ask or to suggest…
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 15 2025 1:54 utc | 322
wtf is wrong with this website that it blocks posts so often? it is a pain
Posted by: anonymous | Jan 15 2025 1:27 utc | 332
you obviously are sock puppeting, which is bannable, and you have been banned dozens of times for sock puppeting.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 15 2025 2:07 utc | 323
On January 12, Georgian mercenary Kakha Tilidze was killed in the Zaporizhia direction.
In August 2024, he participated in military operations in the Kharkiv and Kursk regions as part of the GUR “Solidarity”.
The liberation of the settlement of Terny in the Liman direction has been officially confirmed.
Our troops are advancing west of Kurakhovo.
The cleanup of the so-called Kurakhovo pocket continues. 8 km² have been liberated.
Posted by: MiniMO | Jan 15 2025 2:17 utc | 324
Non-English speakers now. Sentence structure sounds Eastern European to me.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 2:21 utc | 325
Daily DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Slow pace for JAN, continues with only 10.0 kmsq taken. Compare to 14/day in DEC or 23/day in NOV.
Somehow, despite all the video blogger clickbait about Russia advancing like crazy, the actual pace has slackened, not accelerated. That’s the benefit of looking at data vice bro-sint,
Advances were all in S Donetsk from the Uspenivka pocket (the old one) up to Pokrovsk vicinity to Chasiv Yar.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 14 2025 23:43 utc | 316
According the FighterBomber (as well as several other Russian channels, but he is the most direct source), the weather has been horrible for UMPKs. For two reasons — first, the reconnaissance drones have not been able to do their job because of thick fog, and second, there has been a lot of ice in the clouds, which damages both the Su-34s and the UMPKs.
This is the reason for the well-documented reduction in the rates of FAB-ization of the front lines.
And might in turn be the reason for the slowdown in the rate of advance.
It does make sense.
The prediction here is that once the weather improves, the rate of advance will pick up.
Especially if attrition finally reaches somewhere meaningfully close to the breaking point.
Of course, that does nothing to solve the real problem, which is Ukrainian territory being used as a launch platform for strikes on Russia. That problem looks like it’s not even on the Kremlin to-do list on a fundamental level, the goal likely is yet another shitty deal (because all the previous shitty deals worked out so well)…
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 15 2025 2:23 utc | 326
Yeah weather is definitely a potential issue. We will see what things look like in the fighting season.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 15 2025 2:32 utc | 327
Even if what you state is true, which my bet is it isnt as it reads like Western propaganda, it is a war that they are having against a NATO client state. There will be damage. They survived so far and are leading so honestly, that is a wonder.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 14 2025 23:04 utc | 310
———–
All of it is either not true or grossly exaggerated.
They haven’t “chipped away” anything, factories don’t get knocked out so easily, even on a direct hit. Damaging a building can mean nothing even if it *looks* bad.
The NATO plan relied on speed not attrition, the sanctions were supposed to crash the RF economy utterly in 2022. They did nothing of the sort.
The rest is petulant mischief-making. We can also expect more non-battlefield “concern” as the AFU continues to lose ground.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 15 2025 2:39 utc | 328
@boneless | Wed, 15 Jan 2025 02:21:00 GMT | 349
Non-English speakers now. Sentence structure sounds Eastern European to me.
Pro-NAFO from Poland or Western Ukraine probably. Getting desperate now.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 15 2025 3:31 utc | 329
NATO is slowly but surely destroying or putting out of service selected targets to cause the maximum damage to the Russian war effort and weaken the populace’s resolve.
Posted by: louis | Jan 14 2025 22:18 utc | 302
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Gasp, ahem, whew… BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! GEEZ, I needed a good laugh and that’s absolutely riotous.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 15 2025 4:06 utc | 330
“There is that part where the temperature started rising at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and keeps rising at higher rates of increase. That makes the denial a scosh harder.”
Unless you research the 2009 leaked emails from East Anglia University Climate Research Unit where researchers discussed techniques to falsify the data to”hide the decline” that began in 2000 when the computer models said the temperature was going to keep rising. I know I’m repeating myself, but if you have to fake the data, maybe your theory needs some help.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 4:57 utc | 331
NATO is slowly but surely destroying or putting out of service selected targets to cause the maximum damage to the Russian war effort and weaken the populace’s resolve.
Posted by: louis | Jan 14 2025 22:18 utc | 302
Meanwhile, Russia continues to take more and more resource-rich Ukrainian land, continues to destroy the ukraine army, continues to dismantle the ukraine infrastructure while paper tiger NATO runs scared of putting “boots on the ground”…
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 15 2025 5:08 utc | 332
Posted by: Dilbert | Jan 14 2025 22:59 utc | 309
Sorry, forgot to address this response to the right post.
“There is that part where the temperature started rising at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and keeps rising at higher rates of increase. That makes the denial a scosh harder.”
Unless you research the 2009 leaked emails from East Anglia University Climate Research Unit where researchers discussed techniques to falsify the data to”hide the decline” that began in 2000 when the computer models said the temperature was going to keep rising. I know I’m repeating myself, but if you have to fake the data, maybe your theory needs some help.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 5:11 utc | 333
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Gasp, ahem, whew… BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! GEEZ, I needed a good laugh and that’s absolutely riotous.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 15 2025 4:06 utc | 354
————–
Yeah, the odd storage tank or even a number of them set alight looks striking.
Yet they’re just big metal shells filled with oil or petrol. Both of which exist in vast numbers and easily replaced or patched up.
The factories thing is laughable, like they’ve got goddamn HP and can be one-shotted and permanently destroyed.
Though in the latter case, by such “logic” the Russians can simply spawn new ones…
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 15 2025 5:23 utc | 334
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 23:17 utc | 312
Sim, eu ainda falo português, mas inglês é mais fácil para mim. Eu me diverti praticando meu português quando visitei Portugal em março passado. Que joia! I lived an hour west of Umuarana, on a fazenda back in the early 70’s when it was still a coffee growing region. I actually got to see Sête Quedas in Guaíra before it got covered up when they built Itaípu. I was very lucky to have that experience.
I read the Wikipedia article about Executive Agreement, but it sounds like something that can be reversed by the next president unless it’s ratified by the Senate. Do you know if it has been used much in the past?
By the way, where are you from in Brasil and how old were you when you left?
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 5:29 utc | 335
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 23:17 utc | from 1 to 312
and across every other thread ….
May I humbly suggest you are not the “expert of everything” you believe yourself to be.
Posted by: Jake Barnherd | Jan 14 2025 23:44 utc | 318
I appreciate Newbie’s effort keeping track of the numbers of losses. It saves me the hassle of getting out my calculator when I’m wondering how the battle is going. I find his posts worth reading.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 5:37 utc | 336
“Most people in countries including Brazil, Indonesia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey expect Russia’s global influence to grow, but majorities in all those countries plus the EU and UK think China will be the strongest power in 20 years.”
Fascinating global poll in the Guardian. Main features
The world doesn’t hate Trump or Russia as much as the West does, views generally positive
But they have IMHO an inflated view of European power and capabilities, unaware of how much damage has been done. The people with the lowest opinion of European power are Europeans, who can see decline in front of their eyes
General agreement that China will soon be World #1
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 15 2025 7:38 utc | 337
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 15 2025 7:40 utc | 338
I’m sure that AFU MiG-29 tech crew feels real strong right about now.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 9:50 utc | 339
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 14 2025 23:17 utc | 312
Sim, eu ainda falo português, mas inglês é mais fácil para mim. Eu me diverti praticando meu português quando visitei Portugal em março passado. Que joia! I lived an hour west of Umuarana, on a fazenda back in the early 70’s when it was still a coffee growing region. I actually got to see Sête Quedas in Guaíra before it got covered up when they built Itaípu. I was very lucky to have that experience.
I read the Wikipedia article about Executive Agreement, but it sounds like something that can be reversed by the next president unless it’s ratified by the Senate. Do you know if it has been used much in the past?
By the way, where are you from in Brasil and how old were you when you left?
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 5:29 utc | 359
Yes, executive agreements are sub-treaties insofar as:
1. At the discretion of the current president
2. Must abide by federal us law and particularly the constitution
3. Must be presented to congress that can then vote a law against it or not fund it (if needed)
But they are probably the tool for 90% of internacional agreements, often last long and are the law of the land as far as states are concerned.
“Prior to 1940 the U.S. Senate had ratified 800 treaties and presidents had made 1,200 executive agreements; from 1940 to 1989, during World War II and the Cold War, presidents signed nearly 800 treaties but negotiated more than 13,000 executive agreements.”
See? Even The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was just that, that’s why threats can easily be made to Mexico and Canada, it’s a treaty at the pleasure of the ruling administration, no huge majority to reverse it.
Mas não sou brasileiro, só estive trabalhando no Brasil nalguns projectos (um em Curitiba mas não tive vontade de gastar tantas horas para ver o Iguaçu , mas você viu as de Guaíra!). Se voltar a Portugal me avisa, estando por perto a gente pode beber um copo e eu explico para você as diferenças entre português brasileiro e o de Portugal (como li o paranaense na assinatura algumas vezes, como agora, respondia em português do Brasil)
Hope you enjoy practicing your Portuguese. And glad you like some of my posts.
And now back to Ukraine, already mentioned we should be seeing a lot of straightening of lines and so it is
Russian forces straighten 6 km frontline near Kremennaya in LPR, expert says
Near Kremennaya, Russian forces also captured one of enemy positions, Andrey Marochko said
LUGANSK, January 15. /TASS/. Russian forces have advanced near the settlement of Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) and straightened the 6 km frontline in local forests, eliminating about 40 Ukrainian soldiers and several weapons systems in the past few days, military expert Andrey Marochko told TASS on Wednesday.
“During active combat operations in Kremennaya forests, the Russian Armed Forces straightened battle lines and delivered several strikes on fortified enemy areas. As a result of the strikes, the enemy lost two mortars, an anti-aircraft machine-gun, an armored personnel carrier and about 40 personnel,” the military expert said.
Near Kremennaya, Russian forces also captured one of enemy positions, he said.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 15 2025 9:52 utc | 340
I’m sure that AFU MiG-29 tech crew feels real strong right about now.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 9:50 utc | 343
A major win, yeah.
Ukrainians are disposable for the West.
They will gladly pay with lots of Ukrainian lives for every hit on a chemical plant in Bryansk or Kazan.
And they are achieving that goal.
Remember, it is entirely possible for both Russia and Ukraine to lose the war.
That is precisely what is happening, in fact.
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 15 2025 10:03 utc | 341
Glenn Diesen has couple new articles up on his substack..included this re registration which I did not know about
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians want negotiations to start immediately, not to sacrifice their youth in a lost war. Newsweek reports that “Over 6 million Ukrainians of conscription age haven’t complied with legislation introduced last year to boost dwindling troop numbers fighting Russia”. The public wants an end to the war, not send their teenagers to die
Posted by: Jo | Jan 15 2025 10:22 utc | 342
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians want negotiations to start immediately
Posted by: Jo | Jan 15 2025 10:22 utc | 346
—
The joy on the faces of civilians liberated in Kurakhove is undeniable.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2025 10:32 utc | 343
That is precisely what is happening, in fact.
_———
just because you use “precisely”, “in fact”, very, very”, “extremely”, and all the other exaggerative adjectives and adverbs you and all your sock accounts are so fond of, doesnt make it so, and fools nobody.
you are pathetic at propaganda. Ever consider pickleball, or maybe badmitton or stamp collecting?
“This is an extremely, incredibly, rare 1964 flagstamp, highly prized and precisely the right size for any collector. It was actually minted for five cents, and in fact is worth $590, but I’ll it to you for $4, which is in all actuality an incredibly good deal, in fact.”
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 15 2025 10:57 utc | 344
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:01 utc | 349
Russia lost the Donbass and Crimea, and just lost Europe’s largest Lithium mine. too.
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 15 2025 11:06 utc | 345
Reuters estimates 10% of global tanker fleet affected by the sanctions…dozens ships unable to offload 65 ships anchored ,(,but not sure how many are russian,,)…185ships have also been sanctioned previously. It’s the ports themselves very nervous about about sanctions. Soooo…fewer tankers available ..rates go up…etc etc.Is a surplus world wide of oil …but…?
Posted by: Jo | Jan 15 2025 11:11 utc | 346
The western allies haven’t.
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:01 utc | 349
—
German GDP Shrinks for Second Straight Year Before Election
. Output declined by 0.2% in 2024, matching analyst estimates
. Malaise gripping Europe’s biggest economy shows no sign of end
January 15, 2025
Germany’s economy shrank for a second consecutive year in 2024 and is unlikely to grow much in 2025, laying bare the challenge for the country’s new government once snap elections are held in February.
Gross domestic product fell by 0.2% after dropping 0.3% in 2023, the statistics office said Wednesday. It’s only the second time since 1950 that output has contracted for two years in a row.
continues ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-straight-year-before-election
Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2025 11:13 utc | 347
“It doesn’t count because Russia didn’t do it” is surely a new one. How childish.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 11:31 utc | 348
finally make the western media and their politicians understand Russia’s POV and agree with it?
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:17 utc | 353
—
Anyone in touch with reality knows that Russia doesn’t care what “the western media and their politicians understand”, and that is also broadly true for the RoW.
The vast majority has been suffering Western economic repression for decades with the current expression of hegemony coming to a head in the Ukrainian conflagration.
When the World’s peoples are no longer forced to tithe at the Dollar’s alter their economies will bloom with growth not seen in generations.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2025 11:35 utc | 349
Imagine, what if ….
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:17 utc | 353
If I am imagining, its going to include Odessa, most of Ukraine, coups in the Baltics, Turkey leaving NATO, taking most of Syria, while buying Russian arms to defend it…
..a destabilized Europe, both over its shitty economy, and nationalist / anti immigrant, sentiment, while the world dedollarizes, LA burns, and the United States tears irself apart in a civil war over Stormy Daniels hush money… ..while I drink a scotch with a pair of babes in negligees kneeling in front of me, the brunette in black stockings and the red head in white…
Posted by: UWDude | Jan 15 2025 11:36 utc | 350
Re: Germany
When I said to a young German guy, after the NS2 bombing, that they were pretty fucked, he said he wasn’t worried, the Germans could just put on a sweater. I said I hope you have sweaters for your industries too !
Posted by: Featherless | Jan 15 2025 11:38 utc | 351
finally make the western media and their politicians understand Russia’s POV and agree with it?
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:17 utc | 353
—-
NEDOGOVOROSPOSOBNY : non agreement capable
It doesn’t matter what the US or the West says, they’re just as likely to break their word.
Russia understands this, and will indulge the US and its cronies to a point, but will always take it into account in their own calculus.
Posted by: Featherless | Jan 15 2025 11:42 utc | 352
Here are some tidbits from Intel Slava https://t.me/s/intelslava
The headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group with senior officers leading the Kursk operation was destroyed.
The missile strike was carried out on a concentration of manpower and the headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy.
Numerous casualties and SBU cordon at the moment. Strings of ambulances. At least three BTRGs were preparing for night rotation.
Ukrainian channels report the launch of Russian cruise missiles!
At this moment they are flying towards the western regions of Ukraine.
Arrivals in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky and Kiev regions.
Explosions are also reported in Kharkov and Chernigov
Power outages have begun across Ukraine
According to information that has emerged, the Russian Aerospace Forces attacked Ukrainian gas storage facilities in the Lviv region this morning.
Energy facilities in the Lviv region were attacked. In particular, the gas storage facility in the city of Stryi was targeted once again.
Ukrainian sources report that the Russian Armed Forces have captured 11 settlements in Donbass over the past 10 days.
Among them: Kurakhovo, Yantarnoye, Lozovaya, Ivanovka, Petrovpavlovka, Vozdvizhenka, Solenoye, Zelenoe, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo and Alexandria, Shevchenko.
Good to hear about the strike on the gas storage facilities.
Posted by: ctigetr | Jan 15 2025 12:36 utc | 353
Posted by: Karolis | Jan 15 2025 11:17 utc | 353
Russia’s strategy isn’t to be accepted and forgiven by the west.
They’ve been trying to make friends and be accepted by western Europe since Peter the Great.
Russia’s strategy is to make attacking Russia futile and costly. It’s futile militarily because Russia is self sufficient and can outproduce the west militarily in both quality and quantity.
The “making war too costly” part of the strategy is the west is being cut off from the supply chains necessary for modern life.
While the west has been trying to control the world by military and economic hegemony China has been quietly buying up the mines, ore refineries and building the logistics infrastructure to get them to market.
Even if the USA brings all the manufacturing back home the Chinese wins because to make everything from computer chips to batteries they have to buy the raw materials from a Chinese or Russian owned source and they will make sure all the profit on US made products will be in the raw materials.
Despite the bluster the USA can’t use military power because these 2 countries together are self sufficient in manufacturing and energy. There is no way of cutting off logistics or bombing factories deep in the heart of Asia without resorting to nuclear weapons.
If you want evidence the the USA is losing this war look no further than Trumps desire to seize Greenland and Canada. They don’t need these territories to defend the USA … both are NATO countries and allow the US military to use their territory and who in their right minds believes that the Russians would invade the USA by attacking across 6000 miles of tundra and muskeg where there isn’t a single road.
What the Americans want are the mineral resources and they have to get them at cost if they want to compete with China.
The second bit of evidence is the USA / China trading relationship. China has an $800 million trade surplus while the USA has a $700 million trade deficit. China likes having the USA as a market for their goods but could survive and still have a trade surplus without them while the US corporations need Chinese made goods to survive.
The war in Ukraine was supposed to end with Putin being deposed and replaced by a western friendly government that would give the USA all the raw materials they needed at bargain prices. This would also leave China’s fate in control of the US navy and air force.
It failed and now the USA is flailing about threatening NATO allies with invasion out of desperation.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 15 2025 12:51 utc | 354
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9613292.html
Article on attempt by Kiev forces to get Russian troops to give up a position in return for million-dollar bribe. Attempt frustrated by Russian counter-intelligence. However, I am left wondering whether Russian setbacks or sub-par performances have been caused in the past because someone did take the money. Senior Syrian officers being bought off probably played some part in the collapse of Assad’s government. Kiev and its sponsors do seem to have money to throw around.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jan 15 2025 13:20 utc | 355
Just as a reiteration of the obvious, as a worthwhile counter to this reiteration of the stupid – the West is losing time (among other things). So much time. What is time? Not to sound like a pretentious prick, but – time is money.
It’s only exasperated by the fact that West is incapable of truly long term planning, making these three years feel like an eternity to plutocrats obsessed with short term goals. It is funny to think about how these idiots would’ve likely gotten everything they wanted with so-called-ukraine project, had they only waited a single decade, perhaps less, without starting an ethnic cleansing / “civil war” / “”ATO””. The globalist faction in charge appears unable to simply wait. Therefore lost time hurts them badly.
On the other side of the battle, Russia has bought and continues to buy (including in blood) so much time for itself, China and rest of the world.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 15 2025 14:12 utc | 356
Waldorf@363….it’s called SlogMow for a reason…..bling’s the thang!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 15 2025 14:29 utc | 357
Just a reminder for all of these who continue to spread claim that “it costs West peanuts” – well, not really, it cost Europe already more than billion euros only in increased energy costs. Loss of investments, destruction of industry and running away of existing companies can hardly even be calculated (only during first year of Ukraine war EU experienced redirection of €200 billion of investments out of EU).
Posted by: zed | Jan 15 2025 14:32 utc | 358
Banderite Ukraine is what happens when a clan (klan) gets injected with lots of money and support. Clans and extended families across the planet plant seeds of their own demise when families over emphasize warrior traits, vengeance, score settling and pillaging. Appalachia and the Ozarks in the US are loaded with them. Comanche, Sioux and Apaches, street gangs, and on and on. Watch the mini series “Hatfields and McCoys”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMJYPDcS96M
Russia knows first hand what the Galician clans have done for over 100 years (same with Balts, Polish, Croats, Germans). Post WW2 was a turning point when the Nazis and Banderites folded into the US/Brit empire and pushed their fairy tales into the heads of Ukrainians further east.
bottom line, Russia knows they are dealing with a “brotherly people” who have been groomed to hate them. Russia is now committed to taking back all of Ukraine and they know it will require lots of sacrifice and big doses of tough love.
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 15 2025 14:37 utc | 359
The Donbas will showcase a path toward reconciliation and prosperity. Mariupul, for example.
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 15 2025 14:39 utc | 360
But this war cost the west very little. Peanuts.
They populations in EU/USA are ready to accept any sacrifice for the victory and even to die for the interests of their respective oligarchs.
Posted by: vargas | Jan 15 2025 13:59 utc | 364
It’s not about the material cost of the war itself but the outcome of the geopolitical battle for markets and resources this war is being fought over. What we are watching the the end game of capitalism just as Marx predicted. Ukraine is just a battlefield.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 15 2025 14:57 utc | 361
The Berliner Zeitung has posted up commentary on the recent interview of Nikolai Patrushev.
It is worth reading (in translation)
Putin’s chief ideologue in the Kremlin: The existing world order will collapse
In an interview, Nikolai Patrushev compares the current world situation with the collapse of the Soviet Union. An analysis.
After a long silence, Nikolai Patrushev, former influential secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and close companion of Vladimir Putin, gave an interview to the Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda on January 14, 2025.
Excitingly, the focus of Patrushev’s latest media talk is US President-elect Donald Trump against the backdrop of global tectonic shifts, which Patrushev compares to the upheavals following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Even if these changes are not triggered by Trump alone, Patrushev is convinced that he plays a central role in accelerating them. According to Patrushev, these fundamental upheavals would make the existing world order and thus also the current international legal regulations obsolete.
and so on ==> https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/putins-chefideologe-im-kreml-die-bestehende-weltordnung-wird-untergehen-li.2289255
Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2025 15:06 utc | 362
Posted by: Jo | Jan 15 2025 11:11 utc | 351
“185 ships have also been sanctioned previously. It’s the ports themselves very nervous about about sanctions. Soooo…fewer tankers available ..rates go up…etc etc.Is a surplus world wide of oil …but…?”
Do you know if India is complying with the sanctions? They had been buying the Russian oil, refining it and selling it on the global market.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 15:11 utc | 363
New one from s
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/mobilization-mania-overtakes-ukraine
New, not really, take on waltz’s mobilize 18yo
Little more a on how mobilization has been a problem in 2024 and worse now.
Something on Z understanding he has to meat pad his veteran units (maybe Z read it here)
Then finishing off in a non sequitur that neither trump nor Putin can lose face.
That one is easy peasy to correct, trump cannot BE SEEN losing face and Putin cannot lose on central issues sometimes discreetly conceded by trump.
What is missing is the big elephant in the room, namely why AFU needs the less than half a million children’s crusade.
There are a couple of things we know.
1. When the AFU is less than half a million they panic
2. When the AFU reaches 1 million they puff up and go full lemming
3. They had a military potencial (over 25yo) in the 4.5 million range
4. They reserved as critical (probably half true the rest friends) 1 million non burnable /mobilization free
5. They’re on panic mode, I.e. half a million or less, see 1
6. 4.5-1=3.5 , 3.5-0.5=3. Z? What the f*** did you do with 3 million Ukrainian men?
No, as I mentioned earlier this is, still, not wha S says. This is me asking
And finally what would that army do? Try to hold the line at the dnipre? There is no natural line apart from that. How expensive would a retreat under fire be?
Even with massive western expenditure, meaning dozens of patriots, hundreds of m1 and thousand of Bradley’s , sh*tton of handheld stuff and ranged weapons, mere artillery /drone attrition would do the human component in in very little time and it must be getting difficult finding suicide mercs. Maybe the poles are stupid enough, or Romanians pushable enough, but in any case not for as long as in Ukraine . So yes, trump can escalate, but just enough to push the scale enough for a Putin acceptance of something short of what he might get by finishing the job.
My 2 cents on a 100s of billions war
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 15 2025 15:14 utc | 364
Posted by: vargas | Jan 15 2025 13:59 utc | 364
“But this war cost the west very little. Peanuts.
They populations in EU/USA are ready to accept any sacrifice for the victory and even to die for the interests of their respective oligarchs.”
It depends on how you analyze it. In the sense of a static (snapshot) view maybe it doesn’t hurt the West much, but if you look at it dynamically this could be the point of acceleration of the loss of power or even the point of no return. At some point the die is cast, Caesar crosses the Rubicon and there is no going back, but historians aren’t able to identify the turning point until after the rubble is cleared away.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 15 2025 15:30 utc | 365
“But this war cost the west very little. Peanuts.
They populations in EU/USA are ready to accept any sacrifice for the victory and even to die for the interests of their respective oligarchs.”
Mindlessly repeating demonstrably false assertions makes them no less demonstrably false.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 15 2025 15:30 utc | 366
“populations in EU/USA are ready to accept any sacrifice for the victory and even to die for the interests of their respective oligarchs”
What a pile of nonsense.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 15 2025 15:37 utc | 367
Posted by: zed | Jan 15 2025 14:32 utc | 367
——————
And Europe is suffering all that not for victory but for … defeat (answer to Vargas btw.)
Posted by: scc | Jan 15 2025 16:00 utc | 368
Posted by: vargas | Jan 15 2025 13:59 utc | 364
Wow, Vargas has really outdone him/herself today. Two of the stupidest things (by far) I have read today, in one post…
“But this war cost the west very little. Peanuts.
They populations in EU/USA are ready to accept any sacrifice for the victory and even to die for the interests of their respective oligarchs.”
Hands down winner of the retarded post of the day…. Perhaps Vargas is doing this for our amusement as he (she) can’t possibly believe what they are writing.
Posted by: ctiger | Jan 15 2025 16:13 utc | 369
The Neo-Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine will be even more desperate to blow up the ZNPP, now – that their Washington masters have sanctioned it.
“The US Treasury Department has added the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest such facility in Europe, to its blacklist of Russian companies and individuals.
The six-reactor ZNPP has been under Russian control since March 2022.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 15 2025 19:28 utc | 370
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 15 2025 12:51 utc | 362
This is an excellent post HB. I recommend it be widely read and digested by MoA.
Unfortunately I don’t have time at present for more substantive comments.
Kudos HB.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 15 2025 22:13 utc | 371
And they are achieving that goal.
They will gladly pay with lots of Ukrainian lives for every hit on a chemical plant in Bryansk or Kazan.
Remember, it is entirely possible for both Russia and Ukraine to lose the war.
That is precisely what is happening, in fact.
Posted by: ANON2022 | Jan 15 2025 10:03 utc | 343
Ah, delusional and prolific. What a combination.
So the goal of the war is to take random hotshots at dispersed industrial and non military concerns in Russia? To what fucking end, you incredibly myopic, ideological pedant? It’s not adding up to attrition..new capability comes online in the Russian Federation faster than it can be destroyed.. you’re taking about the occasional strike for PR purposes where a big hullabaloo is made in the Western press for the purpose of convincing insipid true believers like yourself that America is winning in her cowardly little undeclared war with Russia.
The opposite is true. The forces America has unleashed are working against her interests, mainly the dollar. As I said verbatim before, America’s reckless dipshit peacock strategists (ahem) thought they were gonna fuck some sweet Russian pussy. Instead they got their dick stuck in a steel jawed bear trap. The strategic costs of the war for America continue to mount..oh sure,m she broke Europe. What a victory, her main ally cannibalize in order to keep the debased dollar afloat a few more years? Sacrificing future potential for a tiny short term game and a massive increase in worldwide risks? While condoning..nay aiding and abetting mass murder, forced stravation and land theft by their Israeli proxies? Americas largest budget item is now interest on their obviously unpayable debt, and the infrastructure, even the baunted military, is crumbling. Meanwhile Russia and China have been driven into a closer economic and military union, and the BRICS economic block and the multilateral forces which spawned it are only getting stronger.
America has well and truly outed itself as a fascist imperialist power in decline, and the shit show I’m sad to say is only just beginning.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 16 2025 18:55 utc | 372