Then where are they? The AFU has been forcibly conscripting — literally kidnapping people off the streets — for 2 years now. They’ve also been expanding the conscription requirements relentlessly to include the sick & disabled. You don’t do that with only a 15 percent loss.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:57 utc | 199
My thought exactly.
They snatched millions, they got to 1 million army to play the september 2022 counter offensive (that covering initial losses as well), then snatched another cool million and then some to, to reach another million army to do the summer of 2023 thing, then they continued snatching all they could. I’d bet they got close to 3 million so far, and now they have what? Not enough.
BTW anyone believes that 2024 was heavier on casualties than the previous years with all the major attacks? MOA understated those numbers (maybe because many of those hit were unseen/unconfirmed). Maybe 2022, with only 10 months was near 2024, but 2023 was way higher, I’d go for more than 50% higher than 2024, that’s when AFU went all in on trying to push through, that’s when the rest of the front was buzzing with artillery shells.
my 3 million AFU casualties

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 18:35 utc | 203

my 3 million AFU casualties
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 18:35 utc | 204
The introduction of the FAB glidebombs certainly marked a significant upturn in the overall AFU vs. RF casualty rate.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 18:45 utc | 205

I’ve not come across anything (statements by Lavrov, Putin, Peskov, Zakharova etc) that have suggested to me that Russia desires a time-limited truce.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 10 2025 18:53 utc | 207
Agreed. Russia’s playing globally, not regionally.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 18:56 utc | 207

but I’m far from convinced that a proposal for a limited truce or freeze will be taken seriously by the Russian side.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 10 2025 18:53 utc | 207
10/12 years might as well be forever. IMHO there will be no significant re-arming of the EU, and the US will revert to “Fortress America” focused on rebuilding & reshaping itself to exist peacefully (albeit uneasily) alongside Russia & China. That’s why there’s already jockeying for other resources (e.g., Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Panama, etc.)
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 18:54 utc | 208
It will be called peace, and in a way you answered each other

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 19:00 utc | 209

with an organic national identity (Russia lacked one after USSD collapse)
Posted by: The Undeground Soul | Jan 10 2025 18:16 utc | 201

Sorry but that’s just laughable. Of course Russia has, and has had for hundreds of years if not thousands, enormous amounts of national identity.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 10 2025 19:21 utc | 211

In other words, here is the flowchart: end of NATO? Yes = peace! No = war continues!
Posted by: Elber | Jan 10 2025 19:35 utc | 215
I’d argue that peace breaks out regardless. US is pulling out and EU simply can’t go it alone. EU is logistically incapable of sending anything other than a token force and it’s prompt vaporization would end their involvement even faster.
See how Ukraine’s already talking up elections? The writing’s on the wall.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 19:47 utc | 213

Right now, Russia has the US/NATO on the back foot, so why would Russia agree to give them a breather to rearm and recoup?
Posted by: Ed | Jan 10 2025 19:47 utc | 217
Again, that pre-supposes a capability that simply doesn’t exist. The SMO is 3 years in and the NATO countries’ “war machine” is pretty much a no-show, so even if there’s a “breather” how can there be any expectation that’ll change?

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 20:00 utc | 215

By the way, without the guarantee of China’s support, Putin wouldn’t have started it in the first place!)
Posted by: Elber | Jan 10 2025 20:06 utc | 219
Nah, they’d have done it regardless. They don’t use the term “existential threat” lightly.
Otherwise, totally agree that China’s interests are totally aligned with Russia’s which is why any talk of breaking that bond is laughable.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 20:12 utc | 217

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:48 utc | 192 “What do you know about Russia”
What is the life expectancy of man in Russia today? How does that compare to the life expectancy of a man in the places you mentioned: USA, Canada, France, Italy?
This place: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/ says 67.48 for Russia, 77 for USA, 80.53 for Canada, 80.59 for France and 81.75 for Italy.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 20:59 utc | 219

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 20:59 utc | 224
#########
What good is life expectancy if several of those countries you cited will not allow a man to behave as a man?
Do the concepts of dignity and duty mean anything to you?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 21:55 utc | 221

@TJandTheBear | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 17:57:00 GMT | 199

You don’t do that with only a 15 percent loss.

A 15 percent loss is actually very high. I’m talking about KIAs as a percent of total mobilized forces, not all casualties. It’s more than Germany, or any of the Central Powers had in WWI.
World War II was more of an historical anomaly in terms of casualty thresholds. Japan and Germany basically fought to the death, with the Soviets heavily bleeding out the Wehrmacht, and taking equivalent casualties themselves. Most militaries give up long before their losses exceed twenty percent.
I think if 20 percent or even 18 percent of the UAF is KIA’d then it’s over for them.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 22:21 utc | 223

A 15 percent loss is actually very high.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 22:21 utc | 230
Agree that 15% is high, but again, given the extreme “recruitment” measures Ukraine has been employing — for 2 years now — I’d say they were past that level quite some time ago and are likely in that 18-20% range already. Frontline strategic strongholds known for their well-established fortifications are falling almost daily due to lack of personnel.
A lot is made of the fact that a fair portion of the AFU numbers are in support roles but IMHO that’s BS, too. You don’t pull old, functionally disabled or industrially important citizens off the street and literally throw them into the frontline with bare weeks of training without first exhausting men that are healthy, went fully through basic training some time ago and have been serving in a support function ever since.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 22:54 utc | 225

@TJandTheBear | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 22:54:00 GMT | 232

Frontline strategic strongholds known for their well-established fortifications are falling almost daily due to lack of personnel.

True, those strongholds are falling fast, but not so fast as to justify Newbie’s high casualty rates. Someone is still putting up resistance to the RuAF in the Donbas and Kursk regions. I presume Russia would like to secure those areas at some point, and if the Ukrainians are taking so many casualties, there would be less resistance there. One would think anyway.

A lot is made of the fact that a fair portion of the AFU numbers are in support roles but IMHO that’s BS, too.

A “normal” tooth-to-tail ratio is in the range of 30-37 percent. As in, for every fighting man, there are two to three in support roles. I don’t know the composition of Ukrainian forces, but I assume it would be similar.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 23:34 utc | 227

UAF Defence Collapses West of Kurakhovo. Kiev’s Offensive in Kursk Fails
On January 9, the recent progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Russian territory of Kursk largely stalled, and despite the deployment of additional reinforcements, Kiev failed to achieve any significant outcomes on the ground.
The defeat of the advancing Ukrainian battalions enabled the Russian Armed Forces to regain tactical initiative in certain areas along the contact line in the region. Specifically, Russian forces successfully advanced to the town of Malaya Loknya from the west. Simultaneously, the forces of the Kyiv regime persisted in their efforts to push on Russian positions. Recently, fierce combat occurred near Sudzha and Nikolayevka.
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that on January 8, the Ukrainian Armed Forces incurred losses exceeding 290 men, along with a tank, an armoured personnel carrier, four armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and three artillery pieces. Since the onset of hostilities in the Kursk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have incurred losses exceeding 50,000 personnel, 294 battle tanks, 217 infantry fighting vehicles, 160 armoured personnel carriers, 1,515 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,430 motor vehicles, 347 artillery pieces, 44 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) launchers, including 13 HIMARS launchers, 16 anti-aircraft missile systems, and numerous other equipment types.
The Kiev regime’s failure to exhibit significant achievements in Kursk occurs against a backdrop of a critical position for its forces inside the context of the Russian special military operation.
As of January 9, Russian forces progressed further west from the recently captured town of Kurakhovo, a significant stronghold of pro-Kiev troops. Russian forces advanced to the neighbourhood of Dachnoe. Additionally, Russian soldiers are progressing towards the settlement of Yantarnoe from the areas of Dalnee and Konstantinopolskoe. Units of the Kiev government encounter substantial challenges north of Yasnaya Polyana and in the vicinity of Velikaya Novoselovka.
Positional combat persists in Chasov Yar as Russian forces exert pressure on pro-Kiev defenders from multiple directions.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attempts to regain initiative near Kupyansk yielded no significant alterations along the contact line.
The present Ukrainian administration in Kiev appears more focused on sacrificing its most effective reinforcements and Western-supplied equipment to attain a media triumph in the Russian region of Kursk, rather than utilising these resources to enhance the conditions for its forces in Donbass and adjacent areas. This is accompanied by an escalated campaign of UAV strikes on civilian targets in Russian territories. Throughout the previous night, Russian air defence systems intercepted and neutralised 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles targeting the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Krasnodar regions.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 11 2025 0:20 utc | 229

Sorry, in a bar and no time to answer everybody.
30% casualties , 15-16% kia is usually the stop of a war.
Kia is closer to 1/1000 per day on the cutting edge only.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 0:29 utc | 231

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 11 2025 1:55 utc | 242
Excellent comment! Quite plausible hypothesis!!

Posted by: Elber | Jan 11 2025 2:38 utc | 233

Some people might want to at least finish elementary school, before tackling basic algebra so poorly.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 11 2025 7:45 utc | 235

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 23:34 utc | 227
T3R’s are a reflection of the technological level of an army, so in Western armies T3R ratios in the 1/3 ratio only occurred in WW1, by WW2 it was down to slightly under one quarter and by the invasion of Iraq it was hovering at one tenth, or the so-called ‘self-licking lollipop’. The Soviet army had slightly lower ratios, reflecting their relative lack of technical sophistication and differing logistical priorities so, given that the Ukrainians operate an East/West hybrid structure, rely heavily on hastily raised units and have access to out-sourced maintenance facilities, the WW2 figure seems ballpark accurate.
When talking about casualties you have to factor in the research which showed that in WW2 the US suffered three combat fatigue casualties for every two wounded in combat and that’s not also taking into account the 200 days rule (max time a soldier can fight before becoming unfit for purpose. Later studies radically shortened that period to 2-4 weeks, and no doubt these figures will be amended again after proper analysis of the impact on fighting in an ISR/strike complex saturated battle space. Hence the greater emphasis on regular rotations, irrespective of the danger.
Given all this it means the Ukrainian Army is having to massively recruit just to stay in the fight, it can’t strip out its support functions and it has to have a level of replacements to effect regular rotations. When it has tried to adjust these levels it normally results in the loss of key terrain. Witness the retreats in the sectors where videos of soldiers complaining had been released, or those where support personnel were pushed into combat.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 0:26 utc | 230
‘Excelomancy ‘, I’m knicking that one!
The scope for manoeuvre, for both sides, is also a good guide as to the relative state of play. After 23’ the only route the Ukrainians had was the high PR, high risk, Kursk operation, which was only sustained by largely crippling their ability to launch any meaningful counter-attacks on other parts of the front.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 11 2025 9:07 utc | 237

@ rk | Jan 11 2025 10:43 utc | 238
It was different before 2023. It will continue to change. No attempt to normalize reality into a neat little package of woefully misdirected and misinformed complaints will change that.
If I managed to search the internet and find a way to send a message to RF MOD, you’re smart enough to find it too. Or are you not?

Posted by: boneless | Jan 11 2025 11:04 utc | 239

What is the life expectancy of man in Russia today? How does that compare to the life expectancy of a man in the places you mentioned: USA, Canada, France, Italy?
This place: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/ says 67.48 for Russia, 77 for USA, 80.53 for Canada, 80.59 for France and 81.75 for Italy.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 20:59 utc | 219
You’re argument is hardly an apples to apples comparison
A 67 year old man in Russia lived most of his life as a citizen of the USSR and suffered a decade of severe economic depression and political instability caused by the collapse of the USSR.
People starved to death in Russia during that period so poor nutrition, unemployment and a lack of health care during that period will skew life expectancy until that generation is dead and gone in 55 years or so.
Any Russian older than 24 has experienced the deprivation of Russia before Putin.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 11 2025 11:33 utc | 241

Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 20:59 utc | 219
vargas | Jan 11 2025 11:34 utc | 242
_________
Teh stoopid, it burns…

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 11 2025 12:04 utc | 243

If one would expect from Germany’s AfD a change in course of lets say Ukraine policy and some form of rational sanity you’d be in for a cold shower. AfD, the ideological successor to Hitler’s national socialist (NAZI) party, is lead by Weidel. In an interview with Elon Musk, who’s trying to install (far) right parties all over the globe, called Hitler a communist. It’s the same kind of projection and revisionism you currently see in Ukraine where far right extremists wear swastika’s, the black sun and what not and would still refer to Putin as Putler.
https://tgstat.com/channel/@TheIslanderNews/30726

Hitler the Communist? AfD’s Historical Gymnastics and Musk’s Whitewash
Adolf Hitler, a communist? That’s the twisted claim from Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s AfD, in a baffling interview with Elon Musk on X. The AfD’s attempt to reframe one of history’s most infamous figures as anything other than an extremist right-wing nationalist is not just absurd, it’s a deliberate distortion of historical fact. And Musk? He doubled down, encouraging Germans to “get behind the AfD” while lamenting the woke mind virus (we agree on this point).
Let’s be clear: Adolf Hitler was as far from communism as the East is from the West. Nazism was an ultra-nationalist, anti-communist, and racist ideology built on the absolute power of the state, corporate cronyism, and ethnic supremacy. The Nazis ruthlessly persecuted communists, socialists, and trade unionists, groups who were among the first to be thrown into concentration camps. Hitler’s economic policy wasn’t Marxist redistribution; it was a militarized, state-capitalist system where industry served the war machine, not the working class.
Weidel’s rebranding of Nazism as communist nonsense is more than historical ignorance, it’s a calculated play to absolve the far-right of its ideological roots. By falsely equating communism with Hitler, the AfD seeks to distance itself from the dark shadows of Germany’s past while painting their agenda as “libertarian” and “anti-totalitarian.”
And Musk? The self-styled defender of free speech and disruptor of the establishment has chosen to amplify this dangerous revisionism.
The world’s richest man aligning with a party that claims the epitome of fascism was a communist. It’s all part of the globalist circus, a stage where elites rewrite history to serve their narratives, while the audience drowns in the spectacle. Germany doesn’t need the AfD to save it, it needs a reckoning with the truth, free from the propaganda of tech billionaires and political opportunists.

It’s won’t be long before the brown shirts get replaced by Hugo Boss styled black shirts and the AfD is rebranded as NAfD, Nationalsozialistische Alternative fur Deutschland.

Posted by: xor | Jan 11 2025 12:18 utc | 245

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 0:26 utc | 230
I don’t know of any example in history where an army outmatched 6-1 in artillery without airpower has been stupid enough to try hold a line for more than a few days let alone 3 years.
All I know is that when we get the real death count of the AFU it is going to be horrific.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 11 2025 12:58 utc | 247

So the reason why I think war will end soon is because Putin has a different goal in mind – it’s not about Ukraine per se, it’s about putting its foot down and disobeying the big daddy of the world, and to show others that it can be done. That was his duty all along, we are now seeing the culmination of this process.
Posted by: The Undeground Soul | Jan 10 2025 18:16 utc | 201
Your analysis is sound. But a VPN might help you get around propaganda that appears to be the primary source for facts on which you base your analyses.
The war may end soon but not because of weakness on Putin’s part. He understands the war to be an existential threat to his country. He has the resources to continue fighting, which includes the will of 80 percent of all Russians.
The ‘Powers that Be’ of The West wish to destroy Russia. Their populations are poorly informed and ambivalent. Mostly, people want lower prices for their needs and better entertainment on their screens. War is boring and heating costs in Europe are exorbitant this winter.
The West lacks resources to continue fighting. They can print money but do not have raw materials or production capacity to pursue this war much longer. They have large weapons stocks, but those are being destroyed rapidly in Ukraine and the Middle East. They are using up and running out of some types of weapons and ammunition, even gunpowder. Russia is producing surpluses of critical items, in case the war expands.

Posted by: samu | Jan 11 2025 14:48 utc | 249

Posted by: rk | Jan 11 2025 10:43 utc | 238
Posted by: Milites | Jan 11 2025 11:37 utc | 243
I built models in grad school using Dupuy’s stuff. I still have his book “Numbers, Predictions & War” on my bookshelf behind me. The company he ‘created’ runs an annual two day seminar that part of still cover stuff like that.
I am familiar with the political push back on some of the stuff he and other did.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 11 2025 15:09 utc | 251

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 11 2025 15:43 utc | 252
Russian numerical superiority in artillery isn’t just an expression of the effectiveness of the barrages they deliver, but the number of targets they can potentially engage. This figure is increasing, as traditional tasks are often now delegated to remote platforms.
As for overall effectiveness, the Russian artillery’s problem was that it was being employed to support a doctrine of massed manoeuvre, reliant on speed and firepower that has been largely rendered redundant. Most shells fired were to suppress or neutralise an opponent, not destroy them, (that was the job of the assaulting forces), or restrict reinforcement/withdrawal routes. This has partly changed, as ISR capabilities are increasingly being networked to batteries, who now have more capable systems and more experienced gunners. Quantity has a quality of it’s own, especially when the quantity’s improving in quality.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 11 2025 16:44 utc | 253

This Russian tanker “adrift in the Baltic” near Rugen, with a “team of specialists” lowered to secure it by Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czdlp67rvd1o
In its first report of the tanker drifting in German waters, the CCME said the vessel was 274m (898ft) long and 48m (157ft) wide, carrying about 99,000 tonnes of oil. German maritime authorities said the oil tanker was drifting at a low speed in the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea, north of the German island of Rügen. A four-person team of specialists was lowered onto the vessel by helicopter on Friday night to establish towing connections, which were secured. Three tugboats took control of the “stricken vessel” that is “unable to manoeuvre”.
Anyone know what the truth is?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 11 2025 16:46 utc | 255

US Treasury Imposes ‘Sweeping’ Sanctions on Russian Oil
https://www.rt.com/news/610703-us-sanctions-russian-oil/
“The restrictions target two major Russian producers, along with, what Warshington calls a ‘shadow fleet’ transporting the country’s oil.”
Biden Admits Russia Sanctions Could Hurt Americans
https://www.rt.com/news/610719-biden-admits-russia-sanctions-backfire/
“It is ‘probable’ that gas prices could rise by three or four cents a gallon, the outgoing US president has said.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 11 2025 18:01 utc | 257

@milites (and others in the discussion)
First of all thanks for the pdf, will take a look later. I have to find again the study I originally found when originally researching battle injury and deaths in armored war.
Ended up finding a very interesting study trying to bridge the lack of common denominators in a lot of injury in war ratios.
Yes milites, Kia is usually just for killed “immediately “ and recovery numbers and ratios are often excluding those sent to combat in less than 48 hours, etc etc. a real mess.
As an added bonus had some wwii comparisons between marines and normal troops, extrapolated that the advantage in lower Kia and better less than 48h return to combat also applied to fully recovered vs permanently unfit.
Took some guesses about troops committed to battle and some known and some unknown recruitment data .
It makes sense but with huge numbers, that were later confirmed by the RF now confirmed army size and divulged recruitment numbers.
So yes RF killed 250k, AFU 1.500.000 (and as many permanently disabled)
Yes milites, you can steal excelomancy 😉

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 19:17 utc | 259

It’s 9 days until Trump is president. It’s interesting to speculate what he’s going to do about Ukraine.
First, it looks like he wants a 3-way meeting with him, Xi and Putin. He might even want to call it the G-3 (he’ll brag it’s more important than the G-7 🙂
The main thing Putin and Xi want is security guarantees – no NATO troops in post-1990 Europe and the main thing Xi wants is no US warships in Taiwan territorial waters (which are Chinese territorial waters) and no recognition of any Taiwan declaration of independence..
Trump wants similar security guarantees from Russia (no invading EU countries) and from China (peaceful reunification of Taiwan).
Trump could never get agreement from the US Senate on a treaty saying these things, but he could get the US Security Council to pass a strong resolution saying this. The UK and France might not cooperate, but they’re both quite weak and easily forced to agree.
The obvious solution to Ukraine (after they’re defeated by Russia in the next few months) is a UN-organized referendum in each Oblast (except the ones that are already part of Russia) saying whether they want to be part of Russia, be independent, be part of rump-Ukraine or be part of the neighboring EU country.
It would be interesting to hear other views.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Jan 11 2025 19:30 utc | 261

Oops, “Macron” of course. Good riddance to the lot!

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 11 2025 20:00 utc | 263

“If you think the SPD, FDP and the Greens here in Germany are somehow “left”, well, then you have no knowledge of German politics whatsoever.”

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 11 2025 20:08 utc | 265

Anyone know what the truth is?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 11 2025 16:46 utc | 255
“The Eventin tanker drifting off the coast of Germany with 99 tons of oil is part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”, and its dilapidated vessels threaten European security — the head of the German diplomatic mission stated.”
( en.topwar.ru/257300-glava-mid-frg-prizvala-evropu-i-nato-blokirovat-baltijskoe-more-dlja-rossijskogo-sudohodstva.html )

Posted by: rk | Jan 11 2025 21:43 utc | 267

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 19:17 utc | 259
Talking of the deceptive term casualty, the US lost 58K KIA, 11K were non-combat related deaths.
Already stolen and used, though you did get an anonymous credit.
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Jan 11 2025 19:30 utc | 261
No US support equals significant loss of ISR with concomitants and logistics capacity, which would sink any Ukrainian hopes of hanging on past ‘25. Also huge blow to morale and give permission for disaffected in the UAF to loudly ‘voice their opinions’. Putin knows this and it probably makes up a large component for the US quid-pro-quo deal to stop the conflict. Trump might also expose the true blood and treasure cost of the DS’s adventurism, including corrupt elements on both sides, which helps turn foreign policy back to the critical domestic issues he faces.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 11 2025 19:59 utc | 262
It may be binary, but it’s an historically useful tool to suggest the different attitudes they have toward core values. Left: safety over freedom, tribal over independent, state over private, forbidden or obligatory. Right the opposite, Centre a mixture. Simplistic yes, but it stops the Left from their semantic SERE tactics, when cornered.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 11 2025 20:00 utc | 263
Micron fits the bill, given he’s a short arsed insignificant. Who’s soon to be replaced.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 11 2025 20:12 utc | 266
Don’t forget the independent fascists and the libertarian fascists and the fascist fascists.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 11 2025 21:52 utc | 269

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 19:17 utc | 259 “AFU 1.500.000 (and as many permanently disabled)”
3,000,000 total, it is amazing Ukraine is still hanging on. What is the MOA claimed population of Ukraine? 26 million? Maybe you should double check your model.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 11 2025 21:56 utc | 271

Let the circus continue….Reuters has the following posting title
Ukraine captures two North Korean soldiers in Kursk, Zelenskiy says
If true, so fucking what?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 11 2025 22:28 utc | 273

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 11 2025 22:28 utc | 273
I saw on My Lord Bebo’s X thing photos which servant of the state (and Kolomoiski) published. One was a passport from Tuva presumably belonging to the prisoner. Not that it matters to them, but isn’t there some international law against publishing photos of prisoners of war or something?
I don’t think the filter thing allows for X content, otherwise I would post a link.

Posted by: lex talionis | Jan 11 2025 22:37 utc | 275

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 11 2025 19:17 utc | 259
“Talking of the deceptive term casualty, the US lost 58K KIA, 11K were non-combat related deaths.
Already stolen and used, though you did get an anonymous credit.”
Are you saying US lost 58,000 KIA in the SMO, or are you speaking of a different conflict? It’s hard to imagine how the Biden Administration could hide that many deaths.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 11 2025 23:10 utc | 277

@Newbie | Sat, 11 Jan 2025 19:17:00 GMT | 259

It makes sense but with huge numbers, that were later confirmed by the RF now confirmed army size and divulged recruitment numbers.
So yes RF killed 250k, AFU 1.500.000 (and as many permanently disabled)

You might be right, but that ratio is quite wide for a non-insurgency attritional war. For every Russian killed, ten Ukrainians are irrevocably lost? Impressive lethality by the Russians, if true.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 11 2025 23:33 utc | 279

DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Another slow day for the RFA, with under 10 kmsq taken. Compare to NOV pace of 23/day or DEC pace of 14/day.
Small changes in Velyka Novasilka, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar fronts.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 11 2025 22:36 utc | 274
Tempted to say RF is tidying the lines and finishing the last AFU fortifications before deciding on the next moves.
Toretsk is finished, Velyka encircled, chasiv yar falling and Pokrovsk losing it’s roads…
On another level might be a way to not give the biden regency an excuse for a massive aid before leaving.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 12 2025 0:44 utc | 281

Of course with lost crimea, lost oblasts and emigration (both to RF and eu) some were lost as well.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 12 2025 0:37 utc | 280
You may have intended this implicitly with the “emigration” note but it’s worth stating more explicitly.
Of the population “available” to Ukraine in 2022 reportedly nearly half fled the country. When you consider those that left undoubtedly skewed military-eligible it means that the actual conscription pool was probably what… perhaps 25% of what it was prior to 2014?
That would put potential reserves below 2 million, of which 1 million are already KIA/WIA. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up literally any day — be it a day, a week, a month, perhaps even 6 — and find the entire AFU disintegrating. I’d venture that they would almost immediately were the RF to go to a full-court press, but Russia is patient and IMHO prefer a steady, predictable, controllable collapse… which is exactly what they’re getting right now.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 12 2025 1:38 utc | 283

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 12 2025 1:38 utc | 283
They didn’t lose as many as that, emigration (unlike lost oblasts) was mainly non soldier material.
And 27/45 =60%
I’d go for having 60% (aprox) of previous numbers, i.e. 0.6X7,1=4.3 million of which 3.4 million were already called to fight for the kiev motherfu… motherland.
Give or take 100.000 in any of those numbers.
That’s why you need the kids, there can’t touch the half a million plus of well connected, nor the other half a million of critical people in some sectors.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 12 2025 1:50 utc | 285

We got Invisible North Korean “uninvisibled”! Except AFU released his ID showing him to be from Tuva and muted/put music over the only part of the video where the man was speaking.
The INKs lies are so half-assed I suspect the CIA washed their hands of this immediately and we witness so-called-ukraine’s solo propaganda amateur hour.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 12 2025 7:30 utc | 287

Posted by: boneless | Jan 12 2025 7:30 utc | 287
————-
I was thinking exactly that yesterday evening at the news when those prisoners were shown with a blurred face. Blurring faces of Russian prisoners was never done so far but suddenly they feel compelled to do it for those North Koreans they are hunting since weeks.
Propaganda, as usual.

Posted by: scc | Jan 12 2025 10:23 utc | 289

Eight Ukrainian generals mansions worth $90 million, paid by US tax payers, burned down in LA fires.
https://x.com/SprinterObserve/status/1878381900265345519

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 12 2025 10:38 utc | 291

Born in 1980 in the former Soviet Union, Ukrainian SSR, Alexander Smirnov is a dual US-Israeli citizen, became a FBI informant in 2010. Lived in Israel from 1992 until 2006 when he came to the US and has gathered quite some wealth. Must have served in the IDF, fed information to American and Israel intelligence. Is he a Mossad asset? No one talks about it in Washington DC … of course … “the Russians did it”.

Posted by: Oui | Jan 12 2025 12:07 utc | 293

@ Contrarian_Ed, §261:
Agree, but Russia won´t agree to UN-led referenda.
They´ll agree probably to Russian-conducted referenda in the oblasts around Kiev (Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Yelizavetgrad, Poltava, Chernigov) as “Chornarus” (cf. Belarus).
Everything else east of the 1939 border with Poland & Rumania will become Russian without referenda.
West of that border the Russians may agree a UN role in:
1. Galicia (Volyn, Rovne, Lvov, Ternopol, Stanislavov) offered the choice of independence, or union with either Poland or “Chornarus”.
2. Transcarpathia offered independence, exclave of Russia (cf. Kaliningrad) or union with Slovakia/Hungary.
3. Bessarabia (Chernovtsy, Bujak) offered union with Moldova or Rumania.
All would be contingent on disbandment of NATO – or at least its withdrawal from Poland, Rumania and Finland.

Posted by: John Marks | Jan 12 2025 13:08 utc | 295

Assuming the standard ration, 700K means 250K KIA, of which 20% were non-combat related deaths, so 200K due to combat. Which tracks with some sources about the conflict.
Is the disparity therefore simply because both sides are intentionally blurring the reality by applying the term, loss, subjectively? Russians use the lower figure, to suggest all losses, but are only including the KIA in combat; whereas, the West use the higher figure to suggest KIA’s, but are including all losses, from both combat and non-combat causes.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 12 2025 11:52 utc | 292
It’s even more complicated than that. Apart from the choice of what to report (that has changed over time for both sides) they also apply their own ratios for what they can’t see/know for the other side.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 12 2025 13:39 utc | 297

Dima says the Ukrainians have really let it rip again in Russia. Russia looks weak.
Comrade Stalin would know what to do now.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 14 2025 11:29 utc | 299