News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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January 9, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-005
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Comments
So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe, considering the need to extend logistics and put in place local controls over a not so friendly populous? I don’t know, but longer than 18 months, I’d wager. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 1:52 utc | 101 And if you feel that you can’t go on Posted by: Siddhartha | Jan 10 2025 1:54 utc | 102 Posted by: J | Jan 10 2025 1:37 utc | 97 “oh god, another one that swallowed milleys 3day lie” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:58 utc | 103 The Big Serge piece is pretty good. It got me thinking: We all know what the Ukrainians’ biggest blunders are—the doomed 2023 summer counter-offensive, Kursk, and overreliance on overrated Western tech are my top three. Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 1:59 utc | 104 DJT has all the info he needs now……he knows the Ukronazis are a lost cause, and one thing you can guarantee is he will not sink cash and ammo into a lost cause. Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 10 2025 2:23 utc | 105 I can’t help but compare and contrast the ballyhoo over an oil depot with the complete radio silence that still blankets Yuzhmash. Posted by: frithguild | Jan 10 2025 2:31 utc | 106 So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe, considering the need to extend logistics and put in place local controls over a not so friendly populous? I don’t know, but longer than 18 months, I’d wager. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 10 2025 2:51 utc | 107 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 3:31 utc | 108 @Newbie | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:35:00 GMT | 96
I disagree, I think the Ukrainians have only lost 15 percent of their mobilized manpower, if that. But we won’t know the actual numbers for years. Even though Ukraine has external support – the bodies are almost all Ukrainian. Other than maybe a few special forces, there aren’t any external NATO troops there. Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 3:51 utc | 109 @tobias cole | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 02:23:00 GMT | 105
I wait with bated breath. Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 3:52 utc | 110 SIX Months–the leaders have achieved all they hoped to achieve. Dead soldiers have no value to them. The military equipment’s is essentially FREE–Ukraine will never be required to pay for any of it–or repay their “loans” from the west. Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 10 2025 4:14 utc | 111 Remember all the Hollyweird elite and wannabes posing and posting with their blue and yellow / “I stand with Ukraine” accoutrements? Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 10 2025 6:00 utc | 112 Zelenski: “Ukraine will be ready to fill any vacant seat in the EU and NATO, if Hungary decides to vacate it in favor of membership in the CIS or the CSTO.” Posted by: Passerby | Jan 10 2025 6:06 utc | 113 https://old.bitchute.com/video/8fb4t42p18i2/ Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 6:41 utc | 114 Gepostet von: Perimetr | 9. Januar 2025 19:43 UTC | 29 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:13 utc | 115 Yuzhmash —various idle speculation in no particular order. Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 10 2025 7:21 utc | 116 today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters, Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:32 utc | 117 @mjh | Thu, 09 Jan 2025 22:10:00 GMT | 60
Russia’s never going to Ukraine’s borders with Europe. It was never in their strategic plan to do so. They will create a buffer zone though, after they’ve liberated their stolen territory from Ukraine. Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 7:33 utc | 118 @Ghost of Zanon | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:48:00 GMT | 100
Just ignore him, he’ll never change his one note tune. Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 7:34 utc | 119 And the only wonder weapon the west has used has been it’s continued ability to supply Ukraine with enough weapons and ammunition to keep it in the fight. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:39 utc | 120 I know someone who lives inside of the blob. I quizzed him a few weeks after Oreshnik and he had never heard of Yuzmash. So information is not propogating at all. That’s how tight the lockdown is. Just my $.02 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 8:07 utc | 121 re:ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:13 utc | 115 Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 10 2025 8:47 utc | 122 This post was not the real Peter AU. Posted by: rk | Jan 10 2025 8:55 utc | 123
Prone to speculations, it suddenly stroke me that Robert Kagan’s very new insight in Ukraine’s weakness could have something to do with this. I mean, if Yuzhmash perhaps was the heart or brain or liver of Ukr/US/UK/Eu/Nato military strategy, and suddenly isn’t any more, it’s gone, there is no trace of it … well … I would also have declared impending defeat if I were him. Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 10 2025 9:02 utc | 124
The lier is back. Such a long post for such petty lies at the end. Again. Posted by: boneless | Jan 10 2025 9:05 utc | 125 Posted by: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
nothing on LANCE Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 10 2025 9:50 utc | 126 I used Yandex to try to find an article that appeared to come from a Russian source rather than Reuters, etc. When I saw “Pravda”, I assumed the article had appeared in Pravda. Apologies if it was some sort of fraudulent source. It seems hard to trust anything anymore. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 9:54 utc | 127 Dima says today that western countries want to continue the war. That was concluded in Ramstein. Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 10:02 utc | 128 The EU is concerned that Donald Trump could lift the Russia sanctions imposed by Biden, according to the Financial Times. Brussels fears that Trump could reverse decisions made by his predecessor simply because they were made by Biden. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:21 utc | 129 Trump will no doubt get Greenland, the Danes are already bending over ready to be taken like a cheap whore from behind Posted by: Night Tripper | Jan 10 2025 10:40 utc | 130 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:32 utc | 117 Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 10:45 utc | 131 UAV’s, missiles still flying into Belograd weekly. Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 10:46 utc | 132 The existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners. As Aleph Null remarked @56), it might provide an off ramp to complete nuclear destruction. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:54 utc | 133 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:21 utc | 129 Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 10:55 utc | 134 Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67 “Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 11:05 utc | 135 Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 10:45 utc | 131 “e existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners.” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 11:07 utc | 136 Some here are rightly concerned about the way Russia is behaving towards its enemies in this war. Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 137 Gwrmany really getting its underwear in a mess Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 138 7 months later, and still have not expelled Ukrainian forces from Kursk. Posted by: 5thcolumn | Jan 10 2025 11:21 utc | 139 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:54 utc | 134 Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 11:22 utc | 140 Ukraine Weekly Update, 10th January 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-9c1 Posted by: The Busker | Jan 10 2025 11:46 utc | 141 Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:58 utc | 103 Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 10 2025 11:48 utc | 142 THEN THERE IS SOMETHING TO HIDE Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 11:50 utc | 143 Comrade Stalin would know what to do now. Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 13:09 utc | 144 Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67 “Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected” Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 145 Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more. The obvious correct move for them is to face reality, retreat and re-deploy some of the battalions to Pokrovsk, or Kupiansk, where breakthroughs by the the RF look imminent. Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 13:16 utc | 146 According to the outlet, the German government is embroiled in a heated debate over the proposed aid. The package could reportedly include advanced anti-air weapons and artillery, and is seen by Baerbock and Pistorius as critical for Ukraine as it struggles to contain Russian advances on the battlefield. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:23 utc | 147 Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more. The obvious correct move for them is to face reality, retreat and re-deploy some of the battalions to Pokrovsk, or Kupiansk, where breakthroughs by the the RF look imminent. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:30 utc | 148 But the Bundeswehr doesn’t “have” anything, absolutely nothing anymore…with luck in case of an emergency, ammunition for about 7 days…if everyone hasn’t already run away on the 4th day. Posted by: Martina | Jan 10 2025 13:54 utc | 149 Jo | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 139 Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 10 2025 14:10 utc | 150 RE: “Russia’s best friend is stupid NATO cretins who don’t seem to even grasp the basics. Nobody is going to get a medal for still holding a field in Kursk on Jan. 20.” Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 14:13 utc | 151 What if….Russian troops (front) are only about 50 to 55 km away from Odessa as the crow flies and have been standing still there for months…we hardly ever hear anything about fighting in this area! Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 14:13 utc | 152 Why is Germany so deeply anti Russian? Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 14:19 utc | 153 Ghost of Zanon@147…. Ukie still fights tooth and nail for a very small slice of Russia…..maybe there is something of great importance to Russia in that area. They do spend their fair share of treasure trying to recapture it. It’s rumoured they need outside help to accomplish that……. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 14:29 utc | 154 “Why is Germany so deeply anti Russian?” Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 10 2025 14:33 utc | 155 @Trubundi – feelings, nothing more than feelings … Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 14:37 utc | 156 Germany might be in a mess, but “a 61% majority of those polled expressed opposition to reviving German-Russian economic relations with the lifting of sanctions against Russia” according to the latest “Deutschlandtrend” survey. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 14:41 utc | 157 The United Kingdom government bonds are collapsing. This is significant, since Britain is the main supporter of Ukraine. Remember that in Weimar Germany the government bonds also collapsed, followed by hyper inflation. Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:02 utc | 158 RE: “But objectively, it’s been a military disaster for Ukraine. Historians will write about it the way they do about Pearl Harbor for Japan – the beginning of defeat.” Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 15:03 utc | 159 Robert Kagan: Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jan 10 2025 15:07 utc | 160 159 Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:08 utc | 161 The United Kingdom government bonds are collapsing. This is significant, since Britain is the main supporter of Ukraine. Remember that in Weimar Germany the government bonds also collapsed, followed by hyper inflation. Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:12 utc | 162 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 146 Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:17 utc | 163 Ghost of Zanon@157…..a head? On a platter? I bet he poops himself every time he sees Zman’s head. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 15:19 utc | 164 BRUSSELS, January 10. /TASS/. The EU transferred €3 billion to Ukraine as another tranche of the G7 loan backed by incomes from reinvestment of frozen Russian assets, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on the X social network. Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:23 utc | 165 Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:12 utc | 163 Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 166 Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more… Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 167 Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 10:46 utc | 133 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 15:27 utc | 168 Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:23 utc | 166 Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:30 utc | 169 The USA uses satellite based wide field IR to detect and track long range ballistic missiles during their boost phase not radar. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:32 utc | 170 If they loaned out pounds then it can cause devaluation to some extent but not hyperinflation. If they loaned out dollars then sex tourists are going to have a replacement for Kiev as a cool weather destination. Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:36 utc | 171 The G7 loan program for Ukraine backed by interests from Russian assets amounts to up to 45 bln euros or up to $50 bln. According to the EU Council Resolution published in the Official Journal of the EU, this loan is allocated for a period of 40 years. This means that the EU countries promised their G7 partners – the US, the UK, Canada and Japan – that over 200 bln euros of Russian sovereign assets blocked in European jurisdictions will not be released under any circumstances for at least four decades. Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 15:41 utc | 172 Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:17 utc | 164 Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 15:44 utc | 173 Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:30 utc | 170 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:45 utc | 174 Sunny Runny Burger@116….a logical and very plausible tale…. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 15:46 utc | 175 Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 10 2025 7:21 utc | 116 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:06 utc | 176 “Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 146 Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be seen by radar” “That’s the grapevine from NATO headquarters in Brussels” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:09 utc | 177 Some barflies suggested that Alastair Crooke’s embargoed substack essays would eventually appear at Strategic Culture, and they were correct at least in this initial instance. Although it’s now a week old, “Can Trump save America from itself?”, the essay combined with Emmanual Todd’s interview assertion that Trump is being tasked with managing the Outlaw US Empire’s defeat by Russia will retain a degree of viability until the Ukraine Saga is finished. Trump’s recent spate of imperialist talk may be related to what Crooke suggests in these paragraphs that summarize the Big Picture Problem:
The reason for the existence of the above Crooke spells out in this preceding paragraph: Given that early on in a launch they are tracked by infrared, why wouldn’t the launch have been seen? They even had advance notice it was coming. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:16 utc | 179 Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 10 2025 16:14 utc | 179 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:21 utc | 180 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:32 utc | 171 “The “few” satellites, a few in “” can be prevented, destroyed, etc.” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:22 utc | 181 This is one of the main reason why there’s widespread poverty in the West – as Nato/Western leaders continue to fund the Neo-Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine – to the cost of their citizens. Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 10 2025 16:26 utc | 182 Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 10 2025 16:26 utc | 183 “This is one of the main reason why there’s widespread poverty in the West” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:28 utc | 183 Uh, and that’s called democracy, the best country in the world…or the joke of history! Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:31 utc | 184 Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 21:21 utc | 46 Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 10 2025 16:35 utc | 185 Instead Ukraine billed it as a permanent occupation and thus compelled themselves to keep feeding military resources into a losing cause. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 16:38 utc | 186 Once there were “a few”. But in the last few years the US has launched many dozens of satellites to track this stuff. The latest NROL-153 mission aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Space Launch Complex-4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Jan. 9, 2025. That is yesterday. This was the 7th batch of these satellites. The prior launch in December bought the number of NROL satellites launched in the last 2 years to well over 100. As a guess each launch puts up somewhere between 15 and 18 of these satellites. Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:42 utc | 187 Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:16 utc | 180 “They knew about 30 minutes in advance that something was coming. Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:43 utc | 188 Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:42 utc | 188 “Wont disagree, maybe LEO can be hit by S500” Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:44 utc | 189 (kursk)…it’s a perfectly executed plan to speed the demilitarization of Ukraine. Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:46 utc | 190 And the cause of poverty in Russia is? Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:48 utc | 191 This tells us how deeply EU nations (peoples and governments) are commited to this war. They love this war so much that they all agreed to sacrifice everything for the victory. Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 17:02 utc | 192 And the cause of poverty in Russia is? Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 17:05 utc | 193 Let’s just say that multigenerational mismanagement, culminating in Western predation, requires s multigenerational fix. Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 17:31 utc | 194 The meat grinder keeps going along at about 60,000+ Ukie casualties a month (somewhat less than the 90,000 a month in the Autumn), and the latest Kursk “offensive” pissed away another chunk of armoured vehicles. Seems the Ukrainians got some more tanks to be quickly destroyed by the Russian Army. Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 10 2025 17:36 utc | 195 Disadvantage of professional politicians…as the name suggests…they can’t do anything else in the free economy, condemned to starvation. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:36 utc | 196 The Western/Ukrainian war machine is only kept running by Russian oil, gasoline and diesel fuel. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:51 utc | 197 I disagree, I think the Ukrainians have only lost 15 percent of their mobilized manpower, if that. But we won’t know the actual numbers for years. Even though Ukraine has external support – the bodies are almost all Ukrainian. Other than maybe a few special forces, there aren’t any external NATO troops there. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:57 utc | 198 Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:57 utc | 199 Posted by: Elber | Jan 10 2025 18:06 utc | 199 I think Putin’s strength is in careful finesse of global diplomacy, he really made Russia strike way above its weight class with what they have. He also knows that Trump will offer this only once, and if you miss the train now, you are in for a year or two of war, a price Russia might not be able to pay. We also know that Putin’s focus mainly on economic side of war, and it’s not an easy task to stop momentum of the war machine going, most of the economy is now tied into the war industry, so it will require 3-4 years of peace to lick its wounds, and get the economy back to functioning normally at peace times. My next prediction which is not based on anything but one I fully believe in is that this is Putin’s last stroke. He played a role of showing the world that an alternative to NATO exists, and has scratched the Goliath (NATO) to show that it can indeed bleed. And with technology leveling out the playing field to the point where even third world countries will be able to use drone swarms, or even use AI to leverage resources in a way that will allow to make a nuke without much issue, or any other breakthrough field – we see that it was inevitable, and that Russia got to start such process. So now, the job he promised to do as we went from 1st to 2nd millennia at a national tv address during new year, 25 years later, he is wrapping up. NATO played its cards well and intelligently, not only will they keep most of Ukraine under its influence, they inflicted heavy enough damage for Russia to shake up. But this could have plowed the field for next leader of Russia, one which will now use the newly gained position of the independent nation, and one with an organic national identity (Russia lacked one after USSD collapse) to continue playing this game. So the reason why I think war will end soon is because Putin has a different goal in mind – it’s not about Ukraine per se, it’s about putting its foot down and disobeying the big daddy of the world, and to show others that it can be done. That was his duty all along, we are now seeing the culmination of this process. Posted by: The Undeground Soul | Jan 10 2025 18:16 utc | 200 |
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