Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 9, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-005

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe, considering the need to extend logistics and put in place local controls over a not so friendly populous? I don’t know, but longer than 18 months, I’d wager.
Posted by: mjh | Jan 9 2025 22:10 utc | 60

All things considered — especially in light of Trump’s recent statements — I’d take the under. I’ll readily admit that longer’s the safe play, but the AFU is already scraping the bottom of the barrel and it looks like Trump will indeed cut them off from at least lethal aid.
You can’t project the AFU collapse as a steady degradation… it’s parabolic and thus accelerating. Things will happen much more quickly overall this year.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 1:52 utc | 101

And if you feel that you can’t go on
And your will is sinking low
Just believe and you can’t go wrong
In the light you will find the road.

Posted by: Siddhartha | Jan 10 2025 1:54 utc | 102

Posted by: J | Jan 10 2025 1:37 utc | 97 “oh god, another one that swallowed milleys 3day lie”
Given that the videos are from Russian TV, I guess Russians fell for it too.
Here is another from Russian TV with Russians who fell for it: https://x.com/i/status/1822641324421435432
Miley was reasonably accurate in that Russia did get to Kyiv within 3 days. They got to the zoo in Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497385748680556548
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497384009420136457
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497386752054546433

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:58 utc | 103

The Big Serge piece is pretty good. It got me thinking: We all know what the Ukrainians’ biggest blunders are—the doomed 2023 summer counter-offensive, Kursk, and overreliance on overrated Western tech are my top three.
But what about Russia?
I’ll throw these out for consideration:
1. Stupidly agreeing to send Azov prisoners from Mariupol to Turkey. Erdogan is a backstabbing cunt and has been known as such for decades. Saying that they would just eventually be killed on the battlefield is cope – why give them even a chance for glory, vs. rotting in Siberia? And even if there was some good reason to trade them for something else, never trust Erdogan. Maybe China or Iran would have taken them.
2. Not taking advantage of Western “red line” crossing to do a little of their own. Why on earth is Al-Tanf still standing? Why wasn’t Idlib province turned into Bakhmut back in 2020 when it might have made a difference?
3. Not following Netanyahu’s lead and killing key Azov Nazi leaders the way Israel took out Nasrallah. Maybe Zelensky is just too good for Russia to kill, and things are better with him alive. But Yermak, and various Ukrainian intelligence officers should have gotten the exploding pager treatment. I am pretty sure the capability is there.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 1:59 utc | 104

DJT has all the info he needs now……he knows the Ukronazis are a lost cause, and one thing you can guarantee is he will not sink cash and ammo into a lost cause.
His latest news conference at Mar Largo proves the point……..he called the whole war a tremendous waste of life and resources and blamed Biden for the whole mess. Volo days are numbered…..less than 30 now……

Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 10 2025 2:23 utc | 105

I can’t help but compare and contrast the ballyhoo over an oil depot with the complete radio silence that still blankets Yuzhmash.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
I know someone who lives inside of the blob. I quizzed him a few weeks after Oreshnik and he had never heard of Yuzmash. So information is not propogating at all. That’s how tight the lockdown is. Just my $.02

Posted by: frithguild | Jan 10 2025 2:31 utc | 106

So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe, considering the need to extend logistics and put in place local controls over a not so friendly populous? I don’t know, but longer than 18 months, I’d wager.
Posted by: mjh | Jan 9 2025 22:10 utc | 60
Transnistria much earlier. Feel before President Trump’s time frame of 3 to 6 months

Posted by: Michael J | Jan 10 2025 3:06 utc | 107

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 10 2025 2:51 utc | 107
##########
This post was not the real Peter AU.
He would never attack b like that.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 3:31 utc | 108

@Newbie | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:35:00 GMT | 96

This should have ended long ago, this is a completely atypical situation. Usually any country cries uncle at the 30% bar… that was a year ago.

I disagree, I think the Ukrainians have only lost 15 percent of their mobilized manpower, if that. But we won’t know the actual numbers for years. Even though Ukraine has external support – the bodies are almost all Ukrainian. Other than maybe a few special forces, there aren’t any external NATO troops there.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 3:51 utc | 109

@tobias cole | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 02:23:00 GMT | 105

Volo days are numbered…..less than 30 now……

I wait with bated breath.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 3:52 utc | 110

SIX Months–the leaders have achieved all they hoped to achieve. Dead soldiers have no value to them. The military equipment’s is essentially FREE–Ukraine will never be required to pay for any of it–or repay their “loans” from the west.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 10 2025 2:51 utc | 107
The information about financial arrangements that is easily available is all but non existent. That causes me to suspect the worst. What I suspect is that the war debt will turn up as corrupt financial interests owning real estate in Ukraine.
Again the popular press doesn’t report it in any detail, but apparently a lot of the money that is given to Ukraine is actually the assessed value of the old Cold War military hardware that is given to Ukraine. Some if it even needs fixing prior to being useful. Because they pick up the hardware with no up front cost, Ukraine is willing to burn through it carelessly. That is of considerable benefit to Russia, because they are in the process of disarming Western Europe. A lot of the countries would be hard pressed to go to war because the remaining military equipment is scares. It has been given to Ukraine and destroyed by Russia.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 10 2025 4:14 utc | 111

Remember all the Hollyweird elite and wannabes posing and posting with their blue and yellow / “I stand with Ukraine” accoutrements?
Somehow some of them are now discombobulated to discover their “excess” firefighting equipment was sent to Ukraine.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 10 2025 6:00 utc | 112

Zelenski: “Ukraine will be ready to fill any vacant seat in the EU and NATO, if Hungary decides to vacate it in favor of membership in the CIS or the CSTO.”
Wladimir, my friend, forget about Hungary. How about swapping places with Germany? We pay the EU $29 billion every year – you can have our place.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 10 2025 6:06 utc | 113

https://old.bitchute.com/video/8fb4t42p18i2/
This is the war. It doesn’t seem to have been a good day for the Russians.
Please read the comments below the video which explain what happened quite well.
The biker (apparently a member of the advancing stormtroopers) has to stop injured at the end, an explosion on the side of the road shortly before obviously wounded him.
Anyone who has to fight there is a hero for me.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 6:41 utc | 114

Gepostet von: Perimetr | 9. Januar 2025 19:43 UTC | 29
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Question:
Why don’t you link directly to the alleged article in Pravda?
Because I can’t find the one you mentioned here in this newspaper.
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It’s less about truths, more about the fact that someone might want to read the latest from or in Moscow.
In times of modern browsers (e.g. Chrome) language shouldn’t be a problem, because everything is translated with a right click.
I almost always read BOTH SIDES, that’s the only way you can form an opinion…

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:13 utc | 115

Yuzhmash —various idle speculation in no particular order.
I apologize if I’m repeating anything that has already been thoroughly discussed; I’m not sure I’ve read everything in previous threads.
It certainly is something to behold such silence. Fascinating in its own right. Rare is it not?
Does Yuzhmash have hidden underground rail connectivity or anything else that can easily disguise significant activity? (Not to my knowledge). It would have to reach very far to not be detectable, if at all possible.
I’m wondering if there would have been any or enough significant movement of air or gases from the underground impacts and if it would (or should) have been enough to expel plumes of debris or dust back up and out any holes or entrances (old and new) to the surface.
There really should be, shouldn’t there?
Maybe something one could try looking out for but perhaps unlikely to be visible from satellites. It is a topic one would expect local chatter on.
Judging by the western media blackout the attack must have been extremely successful. Something was hit very hard.
I don’t think the silence has much to do with the Oreshnik as such; that’s just the method. Novel and tremendously efficient, maybe even game-changing in the bigger scope of things, but otherwise perhaps also a red herring or diversion as concerns the target.
What explains the non-western media blackout? Maybe more than intended or known about was hit, maybe not, only a possibility. Another open question.
In both cases the description “media blackout” seems too limited.
It might not apply but one can imagine that sometimes if faced with very extreme consequences both/all sides can agree to pretend that something didn’t happen.
If that applies to this case then we’re almost certainly talking about avoiding global nuclear war —directly or indirectly in short order.
If it does not apply then some other explanation is needed.
In both cases all the details are still missing so it doesn’t explain much but maybe it provides some structure to what is missing.
I don’t know how they prevent any chatter out of Dnipro/Dnepr city. There should be a lot of chatter no matter what yet everyone keeps quiet?
We can try to subdivide “Yuzhmash” into at least four different aspects or topics:
1. Oreshnik and it’s big brother Avangard.
2. Yuzhmash underground bunker construction and how much it was built to withstand.
3. The nature of the target somewhere underground inside the Yuzhmash subterranean “city bunker”.
4. The prevailing silence.
To me only point 3 looks like it could be important enough to explain point 4.
Is this small list of four missing anything that has the same level of overall importance or which can not be filed under one or more of the existing items?
A few historical tidbits (possibly with errors) from Wikipedia on Dnipro:
· Once upon a time in 1951 or maybe 54 the location of USSR OKB-586 (OKB = Experimental Design Bureau) and/or secret Plant No. 586 which was the start of Yuzhmash (name/renaming appeared in 1965).
· A closed city from 1959 to 1987.
· Dnipro/Dnepr is relatively close to the front.
· Yuzhmash has been hit with other bombs and/or missiles previously.
Keep those in mind with the following wild speculation: what if the target of the Oreshniks was something from the USSR such as a still functioning automated sensor station and input for Perimeter? The destruction would (if nothing else is done) likely render it a “lost” signal/input and increase the Perimeter state towards automated launch. Or maybe the complete opposite? Maybe any such destruction ensures it _won’t_ do that?
Maybe this was done to protect the system from accidental discovery during future developments of the Yuzhmash site.
If this wild speculation is anywhere close to true then maybe “the west” is confounded by the purpose of the strike, or scared, or busy searching for old papers they happen to have burnt or otherwise “lost” many years ago 😀
Meanwhile Russia is following their own secret plans and rationale, and have zero interest in saying anything at all.
I’m spinning a tall tale for sure, just some pure speculation to throw into the void generated by the silence. I accept no blame for any errors nor for any accidental correctness.
Being wrong on the internet is supposed to reveal the truth 😉
Any reports about persistent health hazards or structural dangers of collapse? Is there anything being said at all?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 10 2025 7:21 utc | 116

today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters,
if this isn’t laxity, carelessness and fanaticism, tell me what it i
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Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:36 utc | 64
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Question:
How do you know that these drones flew over 1000 km…how do you come to this claim?
Why do you rule out that these drones may have only flown 20 km…SINCE THEY LAUNCHED INLAND…or do you really believe that Ukraine or other foreign groups do NOT have sabotaging groups in Russia.
Question:
How incompetent would officials in the USA be, or worse, in failure in Europe, if drones suddenly attacked oil, petrol, gas tanks…perhaps with drones launched by 16-year-olds?
Despite the size of the country (which some people here still have no idea about), Russia is probably the country with the best airspace surveillance after China! Germany or France, for example, may be able to monitor their airspace, BUT can only protect around 5% of their territory with air defense.
POOR!
Russia, with an area of ​​about 35 to 40 times the size of these two countries, has air defense coverage of almost 65% and has had that for about 30 years.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:32 utc | 117

@mjh | Thu, 09 Jan 2025 22:10:00 GMT | 60

So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe,

Russia’s never going to Ukraine’s borders with Europe. It was never in their strategic plan to do so. They will create a buffer zone though, after they’ve liberated their stolen territory from Ukraine.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 7:33 utc | 118

@Ghost of Zanon | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:48:00 GMT | 100

Still hung up on territory measured in sq km, huh, anonymous?

Just ignore him, he’ll never change his one note tune.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 7:34 utc | 119

And the only wonder weapon the west has used has been it’s continued ability to supply Ukraine with enough weapons and ammunition to keep it in the fight.
3 days? https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/1697553040071430306 Looks like 3 years.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:28 utc | 94
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Now with this “sustained ability” to supply the Ukraine with weapons, it is no longer very far off! Reinmetall is renovating Leos I because they don’t have the raw materials to build NEW ones… Switzerland is looking for TNT worldwide to produce ammunition etc. etc.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:39 utc | 120

I know someone who lives inside of the blob. I quizzed him a few weeks after Oreshnik and he had never heard of Yuzmash. So information is not propogating at all. That’s how tight the lockdown is. Just my $.02
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 10 2025 2:31 utc | 106
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Which shows me again that all the people writing here have never visited the country or know the Russian system when it comes to security, sabotage and espionage.
Yuzmash is and was one of the most secret facilities for the construction of nuclear weapons in the USSR!
Atomic bomb safe (which is why it was NEVER really attacked before Hazelnut) although there were around 35 arrivals of various calibers before Hazelnut.
You have to imagine Yuzmash itself as a city within the city, how many edages there are underground is perhaps only known to those who worked down there, and they didn’t even tell their neighbors.
A city within the city with areas for chemistry, areas for steel, areas for explosives, areas for IT…
Within the factory there were 6 bus lines and 3 railway hubs with over 35 km of tracks.
During the USSR era (when I knew it) no “normal” visitors could come to the city itself; access was only possible with a passport and visits only with registration at the KKB. Where surveillance took place within the city was not visible at the time.
The English probably did not choose this place without reason and thought that they would be safe from missiles there.
The Russians themselves, who designed the plant down to every corner, knew that many missiles would NOT help because they had built it themselves…YES, until the development of Hazelnut
But….if the Ukraine with its secret service with the support of MI6 and the CIA continued to maintain the security concept and expanded surveillance of employees…you will not hear anything about Yuzmash for a long time…and what the English built there deep in the ground will definitely NEVER be heard!
Well, the Russians must have known or feared something…because what sources (grapevine) said?
Was Hazelnut built precisely for this purpose? The danger of what was built there must have been enormous for Russia…
. Note:
If the person attacked does NOT release any images to prove the weapon’s ineffectiveness despite the worldwide hype surrounding this weapon…
The attacker does not release any images either, although at least satellite images would be possible (both sides)
THEN THERE IS SOMETHING TO HIDE
Be it the destruction…be it the reason for the attack…which one would like to quickly forget.
Russia would not be able to prove it clearly…?
England MI6 CIA would not deny it clearly, because they in turn do not know what Russia knows

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 8:07 utc | 121

re:ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:13 utc | 115
you ask me “ Why don’t you link directly to the alleged article in Pravda?
I used Yandex to try to find an article that appeared to come from a Russian source rather than Reuters, etc. When I saw “Pravda”, I assumed the article had appeared in Pravda. Apologies if it was some sort of fraudulent source. It seems hard to trust anything anymore.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 10 2025 8:47 utc | 122

This post was not the real Peter AU.
He would never attack b like that.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 3:31 utc | 108
Yes, that doesn’t sound like him at all.
Anyway, let’s answer to it as well: it may have been a mistake to let tens of thousands and hundreds of armored vehicles organize and cross the border but it would be a mistake to stop them now, when they’re killing themselves on an industrial scale, fulfilling the demil and denazi goals of the little smo.
Also, it would be a mistake to look for deep logic or long term strategy in Nato’s actions with the Ukr proxy. They play Arma 3 and get ideas from there. Sure, at least on the propaganda level, it helps them greatly that RF does not hit behind enemy lines, they keep leveling only their own regions while few in Kyyiiiv know there’s an smo going on. Clown Maia creates much longer outages in Transnistria than RF ever did in Ukr.

Posted by: rk | Jan 10 2025 8:55 utc | 123

I think Serge has possibly glossed over the Oreshnik strike on Yuzhmash; sorry to barflies for banging on about this particular hobby-horse of mine, but if was just a test with inert warheads then why is the coverage of the outcome so restricted by Ukraine/NATO?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40

Prone to speculations, it suddenly stroke me that Robert Kagan’s very new insight in Ukraine’s weakness could have something to do with this. I mean, if Yuzhmash perhaps was the heart or brain or liver of Ukr/US/UK/Eu/Nato military strategy, and suddenly isn’t any more, it’s gone, there is no trace of it … well … I would also have declared impending defeat if I were him.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 10 2025 9:02 utc | 124

RF does not hit behind enemy lines
rk | Jan 10 2025 8:55 utc | 123

The lier is back. Such a long post for such petty lies at the end. Again.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 10 2025 9:05 utc | 125

Posted by: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1

It seems the Ukies have hit a fuel depot of some magnitude.
Is it not time, for once, to make them pay?
And with “them”, I mean THEM!

nothing on LANCE
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:tsd-daily;d:24hrs;@46.20,51.48,12.78z

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 10 2025 9:50 utc | 126

I used Yandex to try to find an article that appeared to come from a Russian source rather than Reuters, etc. When I saw “Pravda”, I assumed the article had appeared in Pravda. Apologies if it was some sort of fraudulent source. It seems hard to trust anything anymore.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 10 2025 8:47 utc | 122
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That’s OK…
But it’s so easy…
Let Chrome translate it for you…
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By the way, at least from German without a block
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https://www.kp.ru/
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maybe the original here :
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https://gazeta-pravda.ru/

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 9:54 utc | 127

Dima says today that western countries want to continue the war. That was concluded in Ramstein.
I predicted this. The west will never stop.
Russia is unfortunately scared, Putin being afraid to hit Ukro energy infrastructure.

Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 10:02 utc | 128

The EU is concerned that Donald Trump could lift the Russia sanctions imposed by Biden, according to the Financial Times. Brussels fears that Trump could reverse decisions made by his predecessor simply because they were made by Biden.
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This would mean the downfall of some governments in the EU, especially the German government.
This is accompanied by fears that a new government under Donald Trump could reverse these measures, including the sanctions imposed on Russia.
Fico does not rule out stopping humanitarian aid to Ukraine over gas transit denial
European officials are particularly concerned that Trump could lift numerous decrees of the Biden administration that imposed sanctions on Russia.
The EU hopes that Trump will keep these sanctions in place to use them as a negotiating tool in possible talks with Moscow on a ceasefire, the newspaper said.
A spokesman for Trump’s transition team dismissed these concerns and said the president-elect has a clear mandate to implement the promises made during the campaign.
In recent days, Trump has indicated that he would consider using military pressure or tariffs on Denmark to force the sale of Greenland. He also said he could imagine incorporating Canada and the Panama Canal into the United States.
Trump publishes maps showing Canada as US territory
The EU Commission has set up an internal team of senior officials to develop strategies to contain or respond to the potential impact of a second Trump presidency.
The focus is primarily on possible trade conflicts, reduced support for Ukraine and a possible withdrawal of Washington from European defense and security policy.
Trump announced that he would arrange a meeting with Putin.
The US president-elect also stated that Putin had expressed interest in meeting with Trump and that they were now working on organizing the meeting. “We must end this war, to stop this bloody chaos,” he said. Most likely, Bratislava, Slovakia, will be the venue for the meeting between Trump and Putin. But Trump should not count on the possibility of a ceasefire without lifting sanctions and without Ukraine remaining neutral.
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:21 utc | 129

Trump will no doubt get Greenland, the Danes are already bending over ready to be taken like a cheap whore from behind
‘Faced with what many in Denmark are calling Trump’s “provocation,” Frederiksen has broadly attempted to strike a conciliatory tone, repeatedly referring to the US as “Denmark’s closest partner”.’
Greenland will become part of the USA without a single shot having ot be fired.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jan 10 2025 10:40 utc | 130

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 7:32 utc | 117
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:36 utc | 64
Question:
How do you know that these drones flew over 1000 km…how do you come to this claim?
Why do you rule out that these drones may have only flown 20 km…SINCE THEY LAUNCHED INLAND…or do you really believe that Ukraine or other foreign groups do NOT have sabotaging groups in Russia.
Question:
How incompetent would officials in the USA be, or worse, in failure in Europe, if drones suddenly attacked oil, petrol, gas tanks…perhaps with drones launched by 16-year-olds?
Despite the size of the country (which some people here still have no idea about), Russia is probably the country with the best airspace surveillance after China! Germany or France, for example, may be able to monitor their airspace, BUT can only protect around 5% of their territory with air defense.
POOR!
Russia, with an area of about 35 to 40 times the size of these two countries, has air defense coverage of almost 65% and has had that for about 30 years.
To Ossi @117- that post at @64 is absolute bullshit and NOT WRITTEN BY Me.
In fact I did compose an @64, but it had to do with the Chinese weather ballon downed (after several tries) by the US last year.
Ossi-
The post that you replied to is bogus, and appears to be a diversion from my post at @72 which must have upset some western oriented trolls -or their controllers. For the record I will re-post my @72 here. It is concerned with Orishnik, and had zero to do with Ukie drones.
The existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners. As Aleph Null remarked @56), it might provide an off ramp to complete nuclear destruction.
But of course, there are a great many questions to be answered about Orishnik. The Yuzhmesh strike indicates that it is devastating to subterranean facilities (including missile silos, command bunkers and the like), but can it be re-jigged to be effective against other types of target.
Like everyone else here, I would dearly love to know what the “warhead” really was.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:59 utc | 72
Hope that clears up the matter-till the next trolloid attempt at lying and derailment of course.
Regards-

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 10:45 utc | 131

UAV’s, missiles still flying into Belograd weekly.
HIMARS continue bomb civilian areas in Donetsk.
7 months later, and still have not expelled Ukrainian forces from Kursk.
Just facts.
Meanwhile, panting after Trump for meeting.
All rather pathetic.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 10:46 utc | 132

The existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners. As Aleph Null remarked @56), it might provide an off ramp to complete nuclear destruction.
But of course, there are a great many questions to be answered about Orishnik. The Yuzhmesh strike indicates that it is devastating to subterranean facilities (including missile silos, command bunkers and the like), but can it be re-jigged to be effective against other types of target.
Like everyone else here, I would dearly love to know what the “warhead” really was.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:59 utc | 72
Hope that clears up the matter-till the next trolloid attempt at lying and derailment of course.
Regards-
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 10:45 utc | 131
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THANK YOU
The real reason for the excitement in the West is probably…
That their nuclear bunkers no longer offer any supposed security…
An ulterior motive that the government elites probably always had in mind when crossing red lines…
Being able to piss off underground.
AND their command centers for their armies are no longer safe…and so in principle every war that is fought without a headquarters should already be decided

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:54 utc | 133

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:21 utc | 129
He really should pick a venue where whitey would stick out like a sore thumb. Far to many ukrops in Europe who would try to assassinate him. Harbin would be a good venue as it would highlight to the west the depth of the relationship between Russia and China.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 10:55 utc | 134

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67 “Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected”
Why do you think thet?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 11:05 utc | 135

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 10:45 utc | 131 “e existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners.”
What the CEP of this system?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 11:07 utc | 136

Some here are rightly concerned about the way Russia is behaving towards its enemies in this war.
The Western/Ukrainian war machine is only kept running by Russian oil, gasoline and diesel fuel.
The trade with the enemy is killing Russian soldiers and civilians every day.
Comrade Stalin would know what to do now.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 137

Gwrmany really getting its underwear in a mess
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is dragging his feet on approving an additional €3 billion ($3.1 billion) military aid package for Ukraine, despite pressure from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Der Spiegel reported on Thursday. Scholz, who is facing a snap election, reportedly believes the move is unnecessary.
According to the outlet, the German government is embroiled in a heated debate over the proposed aid. The package could reportedly include advanced anti-air weapons and artillery, and is seen by Baerbock and Pistorius as critical for Ukraine as it struggles to contain Russian advances on the battlefield.
Note previous finance minister redigned causing the election because funding Ukraine was going to break certain budgets.
plus ADF interviewed by Musk and 150 German analytics people desparately trying to prove this is interference to get ADF banned from the upcoming election maybe because x algorythms may amplify to help them….as in the style of Romania . Civil strife due?

Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 138

7 months later, and still have not expelled Ukrainian forces from Kursk.
Just facts.
Meanwhile, panting after Trump for meeting.
All rather pathetic.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 10:46 utc | 133
Maybe you should remind president Putin personally that he’s on a timetable. How is that Ukraine regaining Crimea in 2023 doing, btw?
Meanwhile Ukraine keeps pouring their best units and equipment to a few square kilometers of fields with no strategic value in Russia instead of using them to defend key strongpoints and supply lines in Donbass, pathetic ain’t it.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Jan 10 2025 11:21 utc | 139

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 10:54 utc | 134
Thank you for your acknowlegment of my post @131.
It appears that the name thieves are a bit desperate, I see they have hijacked Peter AU1 as well. That is a bit up thread, but if I have attracted the same attention from them as Peter, then I am flattered.
Actually, I do not know whether Peter is still with us-he (the genuine one) has not posted for a while.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 10 2025 11:22 utc | 140

Ukraine Weekly Update, 10th January 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-9c1

Posted by: The Busker | Jan 10 2025 11:46 utc | 141

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:58 utc | 103
give it up already, you nafos fell for the propaganda lie and now you simply try looking for excuses and a way out. take some accountability for a change. pathetic.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 10 2025 11:48 utc | 142

THEN THERE IS SOMETHING TO HIDE
Be it the destruction…be it the reason for the attack…which one would like to quickly forget.
Russia would not be able to prove it clearly…?
England MI6 CIA would not deny it clearly, because they in turn do not know what Russia knows
Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 8:07 utc | 121
Sleeping over big serge’s article and reading a comment in this thread I had a revelation (just joking, plain deduction an hypothesis )
RF knows the internals as well as the surface, any image (even from within) could be mapped to an exact coordinate.
Big serge mentioned accuracy.
Any images would therefore allow RF to know exactly where it hit, probably deduce which sub-amunition, and correct (or not change anything) in the guidance system.
As in WWII, when the Brit’s were able to lead the Germans on about where the V weapons were really landing , they can be trying to stop RF from knowing how well the hazelnut hit.
No particular secret on the effect, just top secret on on accuracy.
This is in no way a certainty, but it is an alternative.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 11:50 utc | 143

Comrade Stalin would know what to do now.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 138
_______
Sign a pact with the enemy to play for time, you mean?

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 13:09 utc | 144

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67 “Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected”
Why do you think thet?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 11:05 utc | 136
.
.
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I’ll answer it…
Even if his statement isn’t entirely true, HE is right.
Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be seen by radar…at least very difficult for a number of reasons, but for one reason they can be.
Due to the high speed, a field forms around the missile, how can I explain it best…that effectively absorbs the radar beams.
Only at launch…and in a short moment before impact does the missile (projectile) become visible to radar and, with a lot of luck, can be attacked.
From this perspective, it doesn’t matter whether the flight path was 3500 km, 7000 km or just 90 km.
Whether and how far are satellites able to track hypersonics?
It is certain…that Hazelnut, although announced, was NOT discovered by NATO radars and NATO satellites; the projectile was only recorded when it became active in the stratosphere. That’s the grapevine from NATO headquarters in Brussels…that the frightening thing for NATO was…not having seen IT!

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 145

Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more. The obvious correct move for them is to face reality, retreat and re-deploy some of the battalions to Pokrovsk, or Kupiansk, where breakthroughs by the the RF look imminent.
Russia’s best friend is stupid NATO cretins who don’t seem to even grasp the basics. Nobody is going to get a medal for still holding a field in Kursk on Jan. 20.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 13:16 utc | 146

According to the outlet, the German government is embroiled in a heated debate over the proposed aid. The package could reportedly include advanced anti-air weapons and artillery, and is seen by Baerbock and Pistorius as critical for Ukraine as it struggles to contain Russian advances on the battlefield.
Note previous finance minister redigned causing the election because funding Ukraine was going to break certain budgets.
plus ADF interviewed by Musk and 150 German analytics people desparately trying to prove this is interference to get ADF banned from the upcoming election maybe because x algorythms may amplify to help them….as in the style of Romania . Civil strife due?
Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 139
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And Scholz can afford to block the package..
Why
Because, for example, the promised air defense system would have to be built first.
Baerbock, Habeck, i.e. the Greens, probably want to quickly conclude contracts on behalf of their mentors..They can no longer DELIVER because their term of office will end on Sunday, February 23, 2025.
Scholz, on the other hand, hopes to at least be back in government after this date through a coalition…and THEN he has to raise the money and THAT through social cuts and would thus be the Phew Man.
But the Bundeswehr doesn’t “have” anything, absolutely nothing anymore…with luck in case of an emergency, ammunition for about 7 days…if everyone hasn’t already run away on the 4th day.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:23 utc | 147

Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more. The obvious correct move for them is to face reality, retreat and re-deploy some of the battalions to Pokrovsk, or Kupiansk, where breakthroughs by the the RF look imminent.
Russia’s best friend is stupid NATO cretins who don’t seem to even grasp the basics. Nobody is going to get a medal for still holding a field in Kursk on Jan. 20.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 13:16 utc | 147:
:
:
:
Nobody in NATO or Kiev mentions that in order to hold Kursk they are withdrawing all their reserves from other areas.
There is nothing left from the Eastern Front to withdraw to Kursk…that is why troops have already been withdrawn from the Belarus border at Kursk I. Now only small troops from the Trans-Istanbul border AND larger, well-equipped troops from the Odessa area remain…and last week partisans reported increased troop movements away from Odessa…
Question:
What if….Russian troops (front) are only about 50 to 55 km away from Odessa as the crow flies and have been standing still there for months…we hardly ever hear anything about fighting in this area!

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:30 utc | 148

But the Bundeswehr doesn’t “have” anything, absolutely nothing anymore…with luck in case of an emergency, ammunition for about 7 days…if everyone hasn’t already run away on the 4th day.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:23 utc | 148
It still has too much:
Wie eine aktuelle Antwort der Bundesregierung auf eine Anfrage der Linken im Bundestag zeigt, ist die Bundeswehr mittlerweile mit 54 Soldaten in den Ukraine-Krieg involviert. Demnach sind aktuell 44 deutsche Soldaten im neuen Ukraine-Kommando der NATO aktiv; die in den US-amerikanischen Clay Barracks in Wiesbaden befindliche Einrichtung NSATU (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine) koordiniert die militärischen Hilfsleistungen für die ukrainischen Streitkräfte.[7] Hinzu kommen zehn deutsche Militärs, die im Rahmen einer sogenannten Voluntary National Contribution Sicherungsaufgaben erledigen. Details dazu sind nicht bekannt. Dem Bundestagsabgeordneten Sören Pellmann (Die Linke) zufolge handelt es sich dabei um ein Programm der NATO, „das militärische Strukturen auf dem Gebiet der Ukraine aufbaut und unterstützt“. Es sei daher unklar, ob die zehn deutschen Soldaten womöglich auf ukrainischem Territorium – und damit mitten im Kriegsgebiet – operierten.[8] Völlig unabhängig davon dringen deutsche Politiker weiterhin darauf, die Bundeswehr müsse im Fall eines Waffenstillstands Truppen zu dessen Sicherung in die Ukraine entsenden. Dies müsse, fordert etwa der CDU-Außen- und Militärpolitiker Roderich Kiesewetter, „zu gegebener Zeit mit robust ausgestatteten Truppen“ geschehen.[9]
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/9818
Google Translate:
As a recent response from the German government to a question from the Left Party in the Bundestag shows, the Bundeswehr is now involved in the Ukraine war with 54 soldiers. According to this, 44 German soldiers are currently active in NATO’s new Ukraine command; the NSATU (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine) facility located in the US Clay Barracks in Wiesbaden coordinates military assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces.[7] In addition, there are ten German soldiers who carry out security tasks as part of a so-called Voluntary National Contribution. Details of this are not known. According to Bundestag member Sören Pellmann (The Left Party), this is a NATO program “that builds and supports military structures on Ukrainian territory.” It is therefore unclear whether the ten German soldiers may be operating on Ukrainian territory – and thus in the middle of the war zone.[8] Completely independent of this, German politicians continue to insist that the Bundeswehr must send troops to Ukraine to secure a ceasefire in the event of a ceasefire. This must be done, demands CDU foreign and military politician Roderich Kiesewetter, “in due course with robustly equipped troops.”

Posted by: Martina | Jan 10 2025 13:54 utc | 149

Jo | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 139
Germany might be in a mess, but “a 61% majority of those polled expressed opposition to reviving German-Russian economic relations with the lifting of sanctions against Russia” according to the latest “Deutschlandtrend” survey.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-immigration-and-the-economy-top-the-list-of-concerns/a-71265549

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 10 2025 14:10 utc | 150

RE: “Russia’s best friend is stupid NATO cretins who don’t seem to even grasp the basics. Nobody is going to get a medal for still holding a field in Kursk on Jan. 20.”
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 13:16 utc | 147
It’s not about “holding a field” in Kursk.
It’s about fulfilling your duties, fulfilling your word as a sworn in protectorate of your Country.
Which currently Russia has failed to do and there is no sugar coating or making excuses for it.
Some would comment: “Well, this is war, these things are part of war”. Which I agree completely with.
What I believe is rather beyond the “SMO” mantra, and the back and forth, “well Russia is not doing such & such because it’s an SMO”… then, swinging to: “It’s a war…”
These are the results of the “SMO”…in Kursk…
https://tass.com/society/1897365
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9 JAN, 11:34
“Russian Human Rights Commissioner publishes list of 517 people missing in Kursk Region”
HIGHLIGHTS:
“We are concerned over the fate of the Kursk Region residents, whose relatives and close ones have been unable to contact then for a long time. I publish a list of ***517 citizens that have been reported missing to my office,” Moskalkova said on her Telegram channel.
The ombudsman asked everyone who are aware about the fate of these people to call a hotline or submit an online form on her website.”
That’s just the reported numbers. This isn’t Ukraine territory, this is Russia proper sovereign land.
Might as well throw their faces on milk cartons since the Nazi banderites have squatted themselves for 7 months in Russian “fields”.
If the Russian military needs to keep “Kursk” an open pit for Ukraine’s army to run in and die in, they’re more pathetic than I originally thought.
There is zero reason the citizens of Kursk should be putting up with any of the nonsense. And yes, there are people actually living in those “fields”.
I just think how I would feel. If I lived in a fairly large County or province, and the enemy entered all the outlying areas, all the little small villages & towns, destroying, killing, capturing & killing everyone, and seven months later, they are still there. I think it’s obvious why.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 14:13 utc | 151

What if….Russian troops (front) are only about 50 to 55 km away from Odessa as the crow flies and have been standing still there for months…we hardly ever hear anything about fighting in this area!
Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:30 utc | 149
To Odessa?
More like 70 kms and 3 times as much through unavailable/highly defensible direct land route. RF failed Voznesensk the first time, now it would have to take, hold and bridge it, and that 150 kms NW of kherson..
Likely 400 kms+ for a feasible route. But many interesting intermediate objectives on the way. And if you remember I’ have been saying for months that as long as I don’t see movement heading north on the E105 towards zaporizhzhya then it’s (still) nothing.
A prior condition for this would be AFU unambiguously collapsing and in that situation I’d bet an unconditional surrender would take place before that.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 14:13 utc | 152

Why is Germany so deeply anti Russian?
Havent they learned anything?

Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 14:19 utc | 153

Ghost of Zanon@147…. Ukie still fights tooth and nail for a very small slice of Russia…..maybe there is something of great importance to Russia in that area. They do spend their fair share of treasure trying to recapture it. It’s rumoured they need outside help to accomplish that…….
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 14:29 utc | 154

“Why is Germany so deeply anti Russian?”
I think, like most of us, they believe what they’re told. It takes a long time to grasp that “current opinion” may actually be curated by people who don’t have your interests at heart.
Guardian readers and journalists in the UK and US are discovering this at the moment. When Facebook and Twitter censored all the Hunter Biden laptop stuff, they were blissfully unaware, but then perfectly happy when they found out, it was “disinformation”, wasn’t it? Probably Russian at that.
Now Twitter is Musk Central and Facebook and WaPo are coming to terms with a Trump Presidency, Guardian people are up in arms about it. They didn’t care what FB and Twitter did when they were on their side.
I still find it amazing that Twitter could de-platform a sitting US President.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 10 2025 14:33 utc | 155

@Trubundi – feelings, nothing more than feelings …
Try to stay objective. Yeah, it sucks for the sparse populace of the small sliver of Kursk that Russia couldn’t defend their own borders. Personally, if I were Putin I’d have someone’s head on a platter. I’d also have made the NATO countries behind it pay with their lives.
But objectively, it’s been a military disaster for Ukraine. Historians will write about it the way they do about Pearl Harbor for Japan – the beginning of defeat.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 14:37 utc | 156

Germany might be in a mess, but “a 61% majority of those polled expressed opposition to reviving German-Russian economic relations with the lifting of sanctions against Russia” according to the latest “Deutschlandtrend” survey.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-immigration-and-the-economy-top-the-list-of-concerns/a-71265549
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 10 2025 14:10 utc | 151
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Well, surveys…
It always depends on WHERE and WHEN you ask…the same survey in East Germany, for example, would have shown that 75% were in favor…
And it doesn’t just depend on where and WHEN, but also the time…you won’t find people working on the assembly line or sitting on scaffolding in the office on a construction site, etc. at certain times. Do a survey in Bonn (many, many pensioners) or one in Leipzig or even Dresden…and do it AFTER 5 p.m. and you’ll get different results…
Incidentally, the same rule applies here: “Don’t believe any survey that you haven’t rigged yourself,” just like with statistics…
As for surveys…not even politicians believe them in elections. And a side note from a stock market analyst: “Without Russia’s raw materials, Europe is barely viable, and in NO way competitive.”
The “mob” who still reject it today will also notice this when they are unemployed, pensioners’ pensions are cut, and social services are no longer affordable…ERGO conditions like in the USA and THAT is what is wanted.
.
Social capitalism, such as in Germany, is not viable because it is not competitive.
Didn’t Marx and Engels already write that
“Capitalism will devour itself”
What are we seeing at the moment?

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 14:41 utc | 157

The United Kingdom government bonds are collapsing. This is significant, since Britain is the main supporter of Ukraine. Remember that in Weimar Germany the government bonds also collapsed, followed by hyper inflation.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1877420367842582587

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:02 utc | 158

RE: “But objectively, it’s been a military disaster for Ukraine. Historians will write about it the way they do about Pearl Harbor for Japan – the beginning of defeat.”
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 14:37 utc | 157
Perhaps.
I’m all out of Russian “hopium” these days.
And historians will write what they’re told to write.
Just like the Pearl Harbor nonsense

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 15:03 utc | 159

Robert Kagan:
“None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position – that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly – somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.”
Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31
So Robert Kagan said all along that Russia couldn’t be beaten in Ukraine?
And he’s the neocon partiarch and husband of Victoria Nulend who started everything rolling,
and was cheer-leading the war till she suddenly (got) moved aside?
Now I’m confused. Well Boris Johnson did said he’s “done with Ukraine”.
Rats saying to eachother “see told you this ship would sink”.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jan 10 2025 15:07 utc | 160

159
Alex Krainer did an article few weeks ago…the Coming collapse of Britain…partly also due to the loans guarantees to Ukraine add hugely to debt…Ukraine cannot of course pay back.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:08 utc | 161

The United Kingdom government bonds are collapsing. This is significant, since Britain is the main supporter of Ukraine. Remember that in Weimar Germany the government bonds also collapsed, followed by hyper inflation.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1877420367842582587
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:02 utc | 159
With a 15% drop we might see a couple of banks going down the drain as we saw in the us some time ago.
As for hyper-inflation they should be able to avoid it, it’s bad but not weimar bad.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:12 utc | 162

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 146
The USA uses satellite based wide field IR to detect and track long range ballistic missiles during their boost phase not radar.
So I would be wary of that source.
Also while the plasma shroud is a problem for active radar detection NASA has been using passive systems that receive the RF emissions generated by the plasma to track re-entry for decades. Good chance that rivet joints can do the same.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:17 utc | 163

Ghost of Zanon@157…..a head? On a platter? I bet he poops himself every time he sees Zman’s head.
So there’s Hussein, gone….
There’s Kadafi, hmm…..gone.
There’ Solimini, opps he’s gone…
Then there’s, that guy, Nasrallah, yep he’s gone too…..
The Assad guy, he got fucking lucky….then there was Zman, yep, still flinging hypersonic snot balls at Moscow, gets a free pass….head on a platter…..ROTFLMFAO!
Cheers M
Oh, forgot, that head Iranian guy, fell out of the helicopter when someone blew the tail off it……mention Russia, the west trembles….. laughter will cause that.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 15:19 utc | 164

BRUSSELS, January 10. /TASS/. The EU transferred €3 billion to Ukraine as another tranche of the G7 loan backed by incomes from reinvestment of frozen Russian assets, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on the X social network.
“Today, we deliver €3 billion to Ukraine, the 1st payment of the EU part of the G7 loan,” she wrote.
In turn, the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas also specified in X that this loan “will be repaid with the proceeds from Russian frozen assets.” According to her, “this will support Ukraine’s economy and free up Ukrainian money for defense.”
The G7 loan program for Ukraine backed by interests from Russian assets amounts to up to 45 bln euros or up to $50 bln. According to the EU Council Resolution published in the Official Journal of the EU, this loan is allocated for a period of 40 years. This means that the EU countries promised their G7 partners – the US, the UK, Canada and Japan – that over 200 bln euros of Russian sovereign assets blocked in European jurisdictions will not be released under any circumstances for at least four decades.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:23 utc | 165

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:12 utc | 163
If they loaned out pounds then it can cause devaluation to some extent but not hyperinflation. If they loaned out dollars then sex tourists are going to have a replacement for Kiev as a cool weather destination.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 166

Kursk is being squeezed into a very narrow salient. If the UAF is stupid enough to keep feeding resources into it, they’re just going to lose more…
Russia’s best friend is stupid NATO cretins who don’t seem to even grasp the basics. Nobody is going to get a medal for still holding a field in Kursk on Jan. 20.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 13:16 utc | 147
Same as usual, everything is done for appearances. If they had sold the initial invasion of Kursk as an incursion not intended to be permanent they could pull out now without a loss of face. Done as an incursion it would have been successful in the same way the Doolittle raid on Tokyo was successful. It would have forced a disproportionate response from the other side, and thus, in this case, forced the Russians to expend considerable resources to see to it that it didn’t happen again. Instead Ukraine billed it as a permanent occupation and thus compelled themselves to keep feeding military resources into a losing cause.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 167

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 10 2025 10:46 utc | 133
########
Black-pilled Doomerism is really pathetic.
What does being a critic accomplish for you?
We’ve already got Sean sitting at the bar in his soiled adult nappies, the role of crybaby troll has been filled adequately.
Try again next hiring cycle.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 10 2025 15:27 utc | 168

Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:23 utc | 166
Russia has probably already written off those assets. However, more important than ‘stock’ is ‘flow’.
The EU is eating its own stock, and consequentially the flow will decrease and lead to the collapse of the EU and Eurozone. The stock are foreign reserve assets which are stolen, and the flow is the demand of currency abroad. The demand is collapsing, leaving the Eurozone unable to export more currency out, and consequentially unable to fund its own deficits without direct consequences in inflation from money printing.
So in the bigger picture, US is eating its vassals and their lunch. I can easily see Trump/non-globalists throwing the EU completely under the bus. This is also what is happening in Great Britain.
What do the EU and Great Britain have in common? They sacrificed all prerequisites for domestic supply of food, energy, commodities and goods in favor of the Globalist agenda. Now they don’t have self-sufficiency of anything, and they sacrificed supply from Eurasia, leaving them reliant on the US. Which now had a regime change not favorable for the ex-globalist regimes in Europe.
The perfect storm.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:30 utc | 169

The USA uses satellite based wide field IR to detect and track long range ballistic missiles during their boost phase not radar.
Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:17 utc | 164.
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As you write…
Satellite-based systems…
Who now believes that these satellites will still exist in an emergency?
I would like to emphasize on both sides!
The “few” satellites, a few in “” can be prevented, destroyed, etc.
Thousands of radar stations probably not….ergo:
The Russians can see what’s coming via radar…
The USA = NATO can’t see anything that’s coming…
What is the advantage in an EMERGENCY…with hundreds of hypersonic missiles…in the event of a major war, i.e. China and North Korea mixing with thousands of hypersonic missiles.
.
What and which anti-satellite systems or those that could do that both sides would have is a moot point.
Although, excuse me…I have the technological advantage that Russia has shown…
But NATO has so far failed to deliver with EVERY one of its weapon systems!
I think Russia has a bit more of an advantage there…whereas China is completely shutting itself off and not letting anyone see its cards…
What you can see from the Chinese new fighter…whereas the F35 is probably generations behind, similar to the SU57
The USA has banned its contracting partners from using F35s where Russian air defense can even be suspected…did you know?

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:32 utc | 170

If they loaned out pounds then it can cause devaluation to some extent but not hyperinflation. If they loaned out dollars then sex tourists are going to have a replacement for Kiev as a cool weather destination.
Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 167
I mentioned no hyperinflation.
The main risk, as we saw in the states, are banks heavy on treasuries (in this case gilts) that have to revalue their assets, take the losses, and are suddenly under the minimum capital ratios. Looking at you Sillicon Valley Bank.
Should they owe money to other banks, likely, a domino effect might cripple the uk banks.
And that boys, is how you can get a financial crisis. Though in the us they were able to contain it early just after the run on the SVB.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 15:36 utc | 171

The G7 loan program for Ukraine backed by interests from Russian assets amounts to up to 45 bln euros or up to $50 bln. According to the EU Council Resolution published in the Official Journal of the EU, this loan is allocated for a period of 40 years. This means that the EU countries promised their G7 partners – the US, the UK, Canada and Japan – that over 200 bln euros of Russian sovereign assets blocked in European jurisdictions will not be released under any circumstances for at least four decades.
Posted by: Jo | Jan 10 2025 15:23 utc | 166
This tells us how deeply EU nations (peoples and governments) are commited to this war. They love this war so much that they all agreed to sacrifice everything for the victory.

Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 15:41 utc | 172

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 10 2025 15:17 utc | 164
My understanding is that the hypersonics are not detectable because, unlike ballistic missiles, they travel below radar detection.
I haven’t read before that the plasma field absorbs the radar signal. I do vaguely remember that it interferes with communication signals & that overcoming that was a major part of successful development of manueverability.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 15:44 utc | 173

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 10 2025 15:30 utc | 170
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Regarding inflation
Did you know that private individuals in the EU can no longer buy gold worth more than €2,000?
More than that has to be reported and purchases over €20,000 have to be approved.
Remember the times when no one was allowed to own gold…
when was that the case and why?
.
Others say a register of who has what assets where…
” If the state needs it or wants to replace it with central bank money…
I’m not an expert enough to judge that.
Signs that “The Euro is dying” Euro to dollar fell again today to €1.02

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:45 utc | 174

Sunny Runny Burger@116….a logical and very plausible tale….
With that in mind, perhaps the level of destruction, the level of environmental damage, is so great down there, both sides prefer not to disclose it.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 15:46 utc | 175

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 10 2025 7:21 utc | 116
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Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 15:46 utc | 176
.
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I wrote something in ‘117
About this…
But as I said, it’s been almost 40 years since I was in this city as a member of the army…
And I still believe…the Ukraine (the English) built something that they can’t admit to publicly without turning the whole world against them…
And the theory that Hazelnut in particular was developed precisely to finish the development of this weapon…
Before the English were finished. Until the use of hazelnut, almost all of the Russians’ calibers were thrown at this exact area… But the Russians also knew that THEIR OWN design had to withstand these calibers…
So something had to be found that was able to solve problems deep in the earth…
But whatever…you as Westerners have no idea what a dictatorship like the USSR was capable of doing, making people keep quiet and shielding huge facilities…and by “huge” I always mean in relation to the country…I don’t know if there is a similar secret industrial complex in the USA that can be made secret, including the people in the city it belongs to…Would the USA, for example, even be capable of doing that…monitoring around 12,000 employees…?
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:06 utc | 176

“Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 13:12 utc | 146 Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be seen by radar” “That’s the grapevine from NATO headquarters in Brussels”
NASA has been following reentry vehicles for decades, by I guess, magic? SpaceX rockets send live video on down ascent and during reentry…. So signals can penetrate the ‘plasma’.
As to your grapevine comment, Russia announced that, while they are not bound by treaty, they still told the US ahead of time that they were going to launch the missile.
Given that early on in a launch they are tracked by infrared, why wouldn’t the launch have been seen? They even had advance notice it was coming.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:09 utc | 177

Some barflies suggested that Alastair Crooke’s embargoed substack essays would eventually appear at Strategic Culture, and they were correct at least in this initial instance. Although it’s now a week old, “Can Trump save America from itself?”, the essay combined with Emmanual Todd’s interview assertion that Trump is being tasked with managing the Outlaw US Empire’s defeat by Russia will retain a degree of viability until the Ukraine Saga is finished. Trump’s recent spate of imperialist talk may be related to what Crooke suggests in these paragraphs that summarize the Big Picture Problem:

The notion that once the Trump envoys have been initially to Moscow, and gone away empty-handed, that Trump will sweep in to conclude an Ukraine deal, does not reflect what Moscow has been endlessly highlighting. What is required is a ‘Big Picture’ treaty-based deal that settles the security architecture and frontiers between Heartland and the Rimland security interests.
But will such a deal be seen by many Americans as ‘weakness’; as conceding U.S. ‘leadership’ and ‘Greatness’? Of course, it will be perceived that way – because Trump would be effectively sealing America’s defeat and repositioning the U.S. as one state amongst equals in a new Concert of Powers – i.e. in a multipolar world.
It is a big ‘ask’. Can Trump do it – swallow American pride? One viable way forward would be to return to the original Gordian Knot, and to untie it: i.e. to untie the knot of there being no post-WW2 written treaty delimiting NATO’s ever-forward movement, and by so doing, ending the pretence that NATO’s displacement to wheresoever it choses is no one’s business but its own.

The reason for the existence of the above Crooke spells out in this preceding paragraph:
“But seen from the perspective of Team Trump, the task of negotiating with Putin is anything but straight forward. The western public simply has never been psychologically conditioned to expect the possibility of a stronger Russia emerging. On the contrary, they have endured western ‘experts’ sneering at the Russian military; denigrating the Russian leadership as incompetent; and its leadership being presented on their TVs as purely evil.”
Americans have been subjected to decades of brainwashing and are suddenly being confronted with the fact that the narrative was always false but aren’t being told why they were duped, and that BigLie Media has done nothing but feed the public a continual false narrative about the entire Ukraine operation and Russia’s abilities. To finally confront the truth ought to destroy the last bits of media and technocrat credibility. The end game is just now beginning.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 10 2025 16:14 utc | 178

Given that early on in a launch they are tracked by infrared, why wouldn’t the launch have been seen? They even had advance notice it was coming.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:09 utc | 178
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Correct
They knew about 30 minutes in advance that something was coming.
Where did the report come from in the first few hours that Russia HAD launched a ballistic missile…HAD!
The fact that it wasn’t one only came in reports much later.
Brussels NATO had been waiting for the announced event, waiting in anticipation of a ballistic missile…!
After almost 27 minutes had already written the whole thing off as a fake…then registered the impact without knowing what trajectory the missile had taken…only afterwards could the launch point be determined on suspicion.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:16 utc | 179

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 10 2025 16:14 utc | 179
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Top post
And that’s exactly how many analysts see it, or similar but in the same direction…e.g. Anti Spiegel one of the best analysts and NOT from afar but in the country

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:21 utc | 180

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 15:32 utc | 171 “The “few” satellites, a few in “” can be prevented, destroyed, etc.”
Once there were “a few”. But in the last few years the US has launched many dozens of satellites to track this stuff. The latest NROL-153 mission aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Space Launch Complex-4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Jan. 9, 2025. That is yesterday. This was the 7th batch of these satellites. The prior launch in December bought the number of NROL satellites launched in the last 2 years to well over 100. As a guess each launch puts up somewhere between 15 and 18 of these satellites.
Also the ones in very high orbit (SBIRS-High) are generally going to be pretty hard to reach.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:22 utc | 181

This is one of the main reason why there’s widespread poverty in the West – as Nato/Western leaders continue to fund the Neo-Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine – to the cost of their citizens.
“Kiev’s Western backers have pledged to support Ukraine with $2 billion in additional military aid to help it fight Russia, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has announced following a Ramstein group meeting in Germany.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 10 2025 16:26 utc | 182

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 10 2025 16:26 utc | 183 “This is one of the main reason why there’s widespread poverty in the West”
And the cause of poverty in Russia is?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:28 utc | 183

Uh, and that’s called democracy, the best country in the world…or the joke of history!
One president publishes death lists…
Another puts a bounty on the heads of presidents of unpopular states…
where everyone knows that it’s about oil that this president is denying to the MOST DEMOCRATIC STATE in the WORLD…
Today’s news:
The United States has not recognized the inauguration of Venezuelan President Maduro and has increased the reward for him to 25 million US dollars, the American government announced.
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Must be a joke…as a democracy there’s only one thing left…
It must be a bad joke…
As an American I would be ashamed…
Question:
How high will the internal bounty for Putin be…25 billion?

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:31 utc | 184

Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 21:21 utc | 46
Yes. Well past time.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 10 2025 16:35 utc | 185

Instead Ukraine billed it as a permanent occupation and thus compelled themselves to keep feeding military resources into a losing cause.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 10 2025 15:25 utc | 168

Precisely why the RF opened the door, invited them in and continues to let them stay. Kursk is a siphon of the best people and equipment that AFU has into a killing field. It’s amazing people think it’s some kind of affront or embarassment when it’s a perfectly executed plan to speed the demilitarization of Ukraine.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 16:38 utc | 186

Once there were “a few”. But in the last few years the US has launched many dozens of satellites to track this stuff. The latest NROL-153 mission aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Space Launch Complex-4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Jan. 9, 2025. That is yesterday. This was the 7th batch of these satellites. The prior launch in December bought the number of NROL satellites launched in the last 2 years to well over 100. As a guess each launch puts up somewhere between 15 and 18 of these satellites.
Also the ones in very high orbit (SBIRS-High) are generally going to be pretty hard to reach.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:22 utc | 182
Wont disagree, maybe LEO can be hit by S500 and a little help from our friend Kessler could bring a low duration cleaning of those assets (the civilian ones would be added bonus, I’d bet they are all, or almost all, dual usage).
But for Molnyia orbits you’d need added booster stages (and GSO is a whole different thing and maybe the chinese have something but I think the russians don’t)

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:42 utc | 187

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:16 utc | 180 “They knew about 30 minutes in advance that something was coming.
Where did the report come from in the first few hours that Russia HAD launched a ballistic missile…HAD!”
So….your logic is because NATO didn’t send out a timely press release, they didn’t have the ability to see the missile?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:43 utc | 188

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:42 utc | 188 “Wont disagree, maybe LEO can be hit by S500”
Likely.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:44 utc | 189

(kursk)…it’s a perfectly executed plan to speed the demilitarization of Ukraine.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 16:38 utc | 187
I even suspected as much at a given moment, Z destroying enough of the AFU to force nato into getting boots and own equipment on the ground.
Just one of the crazy ideas that sometimes just spring up…

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 16:46 utc | 190

And the cause of poverty in Russia is?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:28 utc | 184
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Now I’ve had enough of your mostly unqualified, stupid comments.
What do you know about Russia, WHEN were you there yourself?
Or have you had too many bad dreams and are confusing Russia with the situation in the USA, Canada, France, Italy, etc.
In Yeltsin’s time, the Russians were in a terrible situation…this criminal sold everything for a bottle of Conac.
That’s why the West praised him to the skies…Gorbachev was NOT able to combat the corruption in the country…he was too humane instead of shooting people.
Putin brought about the change with great effort…
What YOU as a Westerner will NOT find in Russia is everything from cigarette butts to NOgo Arenas in Russia…you will no longer find potholes on the streets…etc.
What you will find are families who, with 3 or more children, no longer have to pay back a loan for their apartment.
You will find kindergartens and schools with full board for under 100,000 rubles a month, around 100 euros.
In Russia, pensions have risen by around 55% in the last 24 months.
In Russia, the proportion of owner-occupied apartments is over 75%.
In Russia, a liter of premium gasoline currently costs 0.67 euros.
The kilowatt hour is around 9 to 14 euro cents.
How much do you pay for rent and energy?
My friend, a bricklayer by profession, now earns around 400,820 rubles, which is around 4,000 euros…ergo, where are the costs of living in Russia…where are they in your home country…
So don’t write such nonsense…if you know NOTHING…
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 16:48 utc | 191

This tells us how deeply EU nations (peoples and governments) are commited to this war. They love this war so much that they all agreed to sacrifice everything for the victory.
Posted by: vargas | Jan 10 2025 15:41 utc | 173
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Fine by me!

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 17:02 utc | 192

And the cause of poverty in Russia is?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 16:28 utc | 184
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Let’s just say that multigenerational mismanagement, culminating in Western predation, requires s multigenerational fix.
Short answer: Ask Jeffrey Sachs. 😉

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 17:05 utc | 193

Let’s just say that multigenerational mismanagement, culminating in Western predation, requires s multigenerational fix.
Short answer: Ask Jeffrey Sachs. 😉
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2025 17:05 utc | 194
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Let’s just say…
That a country like Germany, for example, has steered itself into poverty.
The deterioration of the infrastructure, for example around 790 dilapidated and closed bridges, roads that are back to the level of 1989 reunification, i.e. GDR standard…digital developing country, etc.
Shameful for what was once the richest country in Europe and the EU.
As I said, it used to be!!
It was because municipalities have been in debt for around 15 years, their roads are falling apart…there are hardly any swimming pools or indoor pools left…
And this is deliberately due to mismanagement…fear of speaking up to name problems…and politicians clinging to their chairs at all costs.
Disadvantage of professional politicians…as the name suggests…they can’t do anything else in the free economy, condemned to starvation.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 17:31 utc | 194

The meat grinder keeps going along at about 60,000+ Ukie casualties a month (somewhat less than the 90,000 a month in the Autumn), and the latest Kursk “offensive” pissed away another chunk of armoured vehicles. Seems the Ukrainians got some more tanks to be quickly destroyed by the Russian Army.
Ukrainian losses for the week January 4th to 10th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
– Kursk & Kharkiv fronts: 2,835 troops, 30 tanks, 122 LAV/HMV, 117 motor vehicles, 30 artillery pieces.
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 3,530 troops, 1 tank, 1 IFV, 8 APC, 19 LAV/HMV, 52 motor vehicles, 46 artillery pieces, 10 EW systems.
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 1,715 troops, 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 10 LAV/HMV, 17 motor vehicles, 20 artillery pieces.
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 3,485 troops, 11 tanks, 10 APC, 30 LAV/ HMV, 41 motor vehicles, 34 artillery pieces.
– Vostok Group (southern front): 1,120 troops, 1 tanks, 6 LAV/HMV, 30 motor vehicles, 26 artillery piece.
– Dnepr Group: 685 troops, 1 APC, 1 LAV/HMV, 44 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces.
In total: 13,370 troops – still a lowish number driven by low losses in Donetsk North (60,905 per month, with undercounting probably 65,000 plus). Plus 91 surrenders. Less than the 90,000 a month losses during the Autumn.
46 tanks (30 in Kursk/Kharkov), 1 IFV, 20 APC, 188 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (122 in Kursk/Khakrov), 301 motor vehicles. Kursk still a graveyard for Ukrainian armoured vehicles, the latest attack throwing away 30 tanks.
167 artillery pieces (30 in Kursk/Kharkov). Still at a rate of 724/mth, way beyond the West’s ability to replace. Plus 10 EW systems.
Total losses so far for the Ukrainians in the Kursk front have been 50,600 troops, 296 tanks, 222 IFV, 161 APC, 1,520 LAV/HMV, 1,441 motor vehicles, 353 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS, 103 EW and counter-battery systems

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 10 2025 17:36 utc | 195

Disadvantage of professional politicians…as the name suggests…they can’t do anything else in the free economy, condemned to starvation.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 10 2025 17:31 utc | 195

Not like this hasn’t been happening in the States for a while as well.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:36 utc | 196

The Western/Ukrainian war machine is only kept running by Russian oil, gasoline and diesel fuel.
The trade with the enemy is killing Russian soldiers and civilians every day.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 10 2025 11:16 utc | 138

Yes, but killing far more AFU and bleeding NATO dry… it’s all part of the plan. You’re familiar with the phrase “giving someone enough rope to hang himself”? In this case they’re actually selling it to them.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:51 utc | 197

I disagree, I think the Ukrainians have only lost 15 percent of their mobilized manpower, if that. But we won’t know the actual numbers for years. Even though Ukraine has external support – the bodies are almost all Ukrainian. Other than maybe a few special forces, there aren’t any external NATO troops there.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 3:51 utc | 109

Then where are they? The AFU has been forcibly conscripting — literally kidnapping people off the streets — for 2 years now. They’ve also been expanding the conscription requirements relentlessly to include the sick & disabled. You don’t do that with only a 15 percent loss.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:57 utc | 198

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jan 10 2025 17:57 utc | 199
I agree.
The killing is exorbitant; especially because the West thought it was going to win the war and wanted to get rid of the Russian speakers!

Posted by: Elber | Jan 10 2025 18:06 utc | 199

I think Putin’s strength is in careful finesse of global diplomacy, he really made Russia strike way above its weight class with what they have. He also knows that Trump will offer this only once, and if you miss the train now, you are in for a year or two of war, a price Russia might not be able to pay. We also know that Putin’s focus mainly on economic side of war, and it’s not an easy task to stop momentum of the war machine going, most of the economy is now tied into the war industry, so it will require 3-4 years of peace to lick its wounds, and get the economy back to functioning normally at peace times. My next prediction which is not based on anything but one I fully believe in is that this is Putin’s last stroke. He played a role of showing the world that an alternative to NATO exists, and has scratched the Goliath (NATO) to show that it can indeed bleed. And with technology leveling out the playing field to the point where even third world countries will be able to use drone swarms, or even use AI to leverage resources in a way that will allow to make a nuke without much issue, or any other breakthrough field – we see that it was inevitable, and that Russia got to start such process. So now, the job he promised to do as we went from 1st to 2nd millennia at a national tv address during new year, 25 years later, he is wrapping up. NATO played its cards well and intelligently, not only will they keep most of Ukraine under its influence, they inflicted heavy enough damage for Russia to shake up. But this could have plowed the field for next leader of Russia, one which will now use the newly gained position of the independent nation, and one with an organic national identity (Russia lacked one after USSD collapse) to continue playing this game. So the reason why I think war will end soon is because Putin has a different goal in mind – it’s not about Ukraine per se, it’s about putting its foot down and disobeying the big daddy of the world, and to show others that it can be done. That was his duty all along, we are now seeing the culmination of this process.

Posted by: The Undeground Soul | Jan 10 2025 18:16 utc | 200