Ukraine Open Thread 2025-005
News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...
Posted by b on January 9, 2025 at 15:57 UTC | Permalink
next page »It seems the Ukies have hit a fuel depot of some magnitude.
Is it not time, for once, to make them pay?
And with "them", I mean THEM!
Posted by: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
Posted by: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
#########
Everyone pays in the end, no one escapes the consequences of their decisions.
Tread lightly.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2025 16:10 utc | 2
- The new offensive in Kursk region stopped and now a Russian offensive there within 2-3km of the only supply road through Sudzha.
- Breakout across the Zherebrets River toward Lyman
- The last high ground/industrial zone of Chasov Yar being flanked from the north and south
- Toretsk now taken
- The highway between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka cut
- The highway between Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia in the process of being cut
- The highway between Pokrovsk and Dnipro within 5km of the front (i.e. dominated by Russian drones)
- Yet another pocket being created west of Kurakhove
- Velyka Novosilka how surrounded
The Russians are keeping the important game, not being distracted, changes the facts on the ground. The Ukrainian attacks are simply desperate attempts of a losing side with no real strategic impact.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 9 2025 16:23 utc | 3
Kokhol Autosuggestion : "publishing a bad news a day will keep the Russians away."
So far, it has not proven to be working as intended ...
Posted by: Savonarole | Jan 9 2025 16:23 utc | 4
Do you mean the strike on the Cherkizovo Chicken Kingdom? Yeah, real strategically significant. Russia is doing a fine job striking back in my view as results attest.
Oh you mean Engels. Yeah, Russia has hardly any fuel depots, I mean after all they're a gas station right? Ukraine as always clutching at any old straw to throw the compliant stenographer Western media who have shown themselves to be shameless propagandists.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 16:32 utc | 5
I can’t help but compare and contrast the ballyhoo over an oil depot with the complete radio silence that still blankets Yuzhmash.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
The Neo-Nazi dictator - will remove the opposition if needs be.
"Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky could press criminal charges against former Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, should he decide to run for the presidency, Kiev-based Telegraf reported on Wednesday. Zelensky has refused to hold elections or leave office after he cancelled a vote scheduled for May 2024."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 9 2025 16:38 utc | 7
Pinpricks by those pricks will not halt the charging Bear.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 9 2025 16:40 utc | 8
Simplicius still thinks the MOD’s numbers are the upper limit, but he should consider how many age brackets were exhausted.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/medley-report-israels-rising-threat
But the next admission is the big one, and demonstrates how the West is finally coming around to admitting Ukraine’s catastrophic casualty figures:
The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount.
So not only is 400k casualties an undercount, it’s a vast undercount. How vast are we talking? 600k? 800k? 1 million? It seems the official Western narratives lately comes closer and closer to aligning with the Russian MOD figures.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 17:00 utc | 9
Same question as yesterday:
How can one profit from the coming closure to this war?
Given that the opinions expressed here are not widely shared, if they are correct, there should be opportunities.
I see this as a betting market where most people accept bad odds because they are ideologically motivated.
Again, any ideas/food for thought are welcome.
How to invest into the Russian stock market?
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
I took a stroll over to turcopolier, Pat Lang's old blog (RIP.)
The discussion was surprisingly adult, with even a few of our regular barflies over there.
Maybe we could re-direct some of the resident trolls here over there? Share the wealth!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2025 17:48 utc | 11
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
"How can one profit from the coming closure to this war?"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Isn't the end of war profitable for the troops and their families on both sides of a conflict?
Posted by: Ed | Jan 9 2025 17:51 utc | 12
Isn't the end of war profitable for the troops and their families on both sides of a conflict?
Posted by: Ed | Jan 9 2025 17:51 utc | 12
______________
Without a question! And that is, of course, the way more important consideration. And one that I read on this blog often.
I don't want to come across as cold in this regard. But for most of us living in western nations there is not much we can do to help.
So, the question is of an egoistic nature, I give you that.
But it still is not letting me go.
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 18:00 utc | 13
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
######################
Friend, the profits of this world do not carry over to the next.
Gold and fame won't buy anything after we die regardless of what people do or do not believe.
Live the best way you can now with integrity and character.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2025 18:03 utc | 14
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2025 18:03 utc | 14
I appreciate the answers.
But I come from a more game-theoretical angle, maybe?
The stakes in this clash of systems are high. There are huge bets on both sides; the tenor on this side seems to be that the presented odds are inaccurate. This feels like a huge arbitrage opportunity.
Where is this argument wrong?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 18:10 utc | 15
@ Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
First of all, take LoveDonbass’s advice to heart — advice that’s just as compelling to atheists as to theists.
But secondly, abandon hope that you’ll ever be able to invest in Russian assets. The likelihood this will ever again become possible for Westerners is, to put it mildly, remote. Chinese assets are becoming increasingly off limits as the USA continues to broaden its list of Chinese entities that either spy on Americans (that’s the excuse) or assist the Russian SMO (ditto).
If you’re a US citizen, simply escaping the clutches of the IRS and FATCA is virtually impossible unless your net worth is in the tens of millions.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:21 utc | 16
The West will have its MSM post an accurate accounting of AFU casualties just prior to making it clear that its washed its hands of "the corrupt and incompetent Zelenskyy regime in Kiev". If we're now seeing the presstitutes starting to post less inaccurate numbers, it's so as to have their ducks in a row for when the reality on the ground can no longer be denied*.
Once a new regime governs Ukraine, and it cuts a deal with the Russian Federation, it will be to their advantage to let its people know just how colossally its predecessor fracked things up. Trump will blame the Biden administration for the state things are in, and the new government in Kiev will emulate that.
*Zelenskyy will become the sin eater, and the media will forgive itself for its years of inaccurate reporting by creating the impression that the blame for all of that can be laid at his door. Everyone in the Village in Washington will want to go along with that narrative, and if Zelenskyy too conspicuously objects to that portrayal, we'll be reading reports of how his helicopter got shot down, or his train got taken out by partisans.
P.S. Part of the peace process will involve massive loans to Ukraine, and those with the right connections will be allowed to service that debt, and it will be guaranteed by Western governments. All of Ukraine's remaining assets will be the ultimate guarantee. In this way everyone who lost out from profiting from the territory that the Russian Federation occupies will be able to recoup its losses and its investments in the political class itself.
Yadda, yadda, yadda, imo the takeaway here could soon be that the West will bank on Ukraine being defeated, and it's that defeat which will allow them to dictate terms which will enrich the private sector of their respective nations. It's simply the Kansas City Shuffle, just on a yooge scale.
Kansas City Shuffle scene from movie Lucky number Slevin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq62W4RNeHo
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 9 2025 18:22 utc | 17
How to invest into the Russian stock market?Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
You might be better off posing these questions on a more financially-oriented website or blog, though to your first question I can offer “Become a citizen of Russia” as a possible solution.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 18:25 utc | 18
How to invest into the Russian stock market?
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
It's pretty easy and I've been doing it since 2022. On the London stock market, you can buy:
JEMA
Former JPMorgan Russian Securities, still full of russian shares (worth about 3-4 pounds per share) valued at 0 and dividends waiting to be thawed on a S account. Should easily trade around 6-7 pounds when financial sanctions are listed.
BEMO
Same idea but less risky than JEMA, as here you buy a basket of Middle Eastern and Emerging Europe stocks for a discount, with about one pound worth of russian shares valued 0. Some dividends as well.
Cadogan
On the opposite side: that's a small Ukrainian Oil & Gas company building a gas-powered power plant close to Lvov. Very unlikely to be attacked, far from the frontline, current price value the company at about half their cash in bank (USD and EUR held in London). No debt, and I believe their little power plant will be a cashcow with Ukraine energy issues.
Some people are betting on other Ukrainian companies like Ferrexpo, Enwell, or MHC but they are on the wrong side of the Dniepr, in Poltava. I don't want to touch that.
Also, did you know some companies like BP or Japan Tobacco never actually got rid of their shares in Russian companies despite making a big show of wanting to do it? BP still owns about 20% of Rosneft.
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
I would not bet on that. Germany is not a sovereign country, it's a US puppet, and currently the marching order seems to be that all of Europe must turn "far-right" to attack Russia again later, around 2028-29, when an older Putin will have to hand the reins to a heir. Only Macron and Starmer remain, and maybe not for long.
Posted by: surrenderingmonkey | Jan 9 2025 18:30 utc | 19
US Dept of Defence has published couple speeches by Austin and Z at the Ramstein meeting today. Might be usefull when it is over to analyse and see how much they match reality .
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:30 utc | 20
9....general thoughts are about 1m..today seems to be 500000 have managed to escape recruitment...60000 ISH have absconded.....yet Z said the other day he had 1m in his army. Uhuh sounds a lot of theoretical to me.
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:35 utc | 21
Per Yahoo Finance:
"iShares MSCI Russia ETF
Overview
The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-capitalization segments of the Russian equity market."
Posted by: Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:37 utc | 22
Since the beginning of 2022, many foreign investors have had their cash flows blocked due to conflict-related sanctions and Moscow's countermeasures.
In March 2024 month, Russia launched an asset swap program that allows investors to exchange frozen Western securities for Russian assets. Two rounds of the program have freed up about $102 million in assets.
But Mr Rogers – who owns shares in major Russian companies such as the national airline Aeroflot – did not participate. Instead, he expressed a desire to continue holding assets in Russia and even plans to buy more when the market reopens to foreign investors.
“I would be very interested in the opportunity to buy more shares in Aeroflot, in the Moscow Stock Exchange, and many other things if there is real peace,” Mr. Rogers said.
According to him, the Russian market is not a safe choice for most foreign investors at the moment because of the risks associated with the conflict, including concerns about possible asset seizures. But he believes that once the conflict is resolved, the Russian market will boom, with bond prices rising and the ruble strengthening.
“If the situation changes, I will seriously consider investing in bonds and rubles,” he said, adding that stocks on the Moscow Exchange and the travel and tourism industry would benefit greatly as tensions ease.
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:37 utc | 23
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:35 utc | 21
I absolutely believe that 1 million number (or close to it). They are STILL fighting in Kursk and still holding the line in Ukraine proper. Sure, Russians are advancing at a pace of a few dozen kilometers a month, but at that rate it would take YEARS if not decades to take and hold a good chunk of Ukraine.
Posted by: bored | Jan 9 2025 18:46 utc | 24
@ Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:37 utc | 22
Its NAV is three big cents and the find, according to the iShares website, “is in the process of liquidation”. See https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239677/ishares-msci-russia-capped-etf
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:49 utc | 25
@malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:49 utc | 25
See, this is why no one should take advice from anonymous posters on chat sites - like me!
Posted by: Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:53 utc | 26
@ Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:53 utc | 26
No worries! It’s only because of my natural laziness that I hadn’t sunk (and lost) big bucks on it myself — it had been on my Schwab “watch list” for several months when the SMO started…
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 19:00 utc | 27
Posted by: surrenderingmonkey | Jan 9 2025 18:30 utc | 19
Thanks! Good to hear that someone else had a similar thought.
When this play is available, why does the market not take advantage of it? And then it autocorrects?
Or will the market predict the collapse better than many of us seem to do?
Selling US/western before the crash seems to be as important?
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:21 utc | 16
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:49 utc | 25
Thanks. I will try. I am not asking to make money.
To understand who profits, it is helpful to understand how to profit.
I am not in the US, but of course, their financial blacklists still have a huge influence on my decisions.
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 19:13 utc | 28
re: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
From Pravda:
"The oil depot in Engels (1000 km from Ukraine) continues to burn after a Ukrainian drones strike, and the fire is spreading, engulfing other tanks, which exploded.
Governor Busargin reported that two Emergencies Ministry employees died in the process of extinguishing the fire. One was taken to hospital.
Smoke covered half the city, the flames are visible from almost anywhere in Engels. The governor assures that air samples are being taken by specialists from the Rospotrebnadzor department, and no excess of pollutants has been recorded.
A state of emergency has been declared in the city."
The oil and fuel depot supplies the Engels-2 Air Base, which houses the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, which operates Tu-160 bombers, and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with Tu-95 MS planes.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 19:43 utc | 29
France is upset African countries do not want their military..however Blinken says he expects France to supply a lot more to Ukraine in the coming months and we remember Macron had certain proposals too....problem solved!
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 19:46 utc | 30
Big Serge with another excellent writeup of the state of the war:
Total Kievan Debellation - The Russo-Ukrainian War: Year 3
He concludes:
In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation - defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat - once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat - is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan - a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one - now says the quiet part out loud:
Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
Indeed.None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position - that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly - somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.
Counting bodies and money in one short thread, yay for humans
Posted by: Rae | Jan 9 2025 19:56 utc | 32
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 17:00 utc | 9
Trump all but confirmed the official figures are fantasy, ‘ Ukraine -- that's a disaster. I look at numbers every week.’ He’s already called the figures, horrific, so one route to shut down the conflict might be to reveal the true casualty figures, or hint at them. This would stop the, ‘Ukraine could have won if the US had kept its nerve’, narrative dead in it tracks, cause an immediate backlash that could remove Zelensky, and give Trump the political cover to end the war, by blaming the Biden administration for lying about the true state of the war, as they did regarding Afghanistan.
Trump needs to concentrate on domestic issues, where the window for passing legislation, that can affect the economy, is measured in months, otherwise the Democrats have a chance of winning the House in ‘26 and the endless ‘investigations’ begin. The Ukraine tar baby needs to be dropped in the trash quickly, lest it disrupt this timeline, assign blame, and pocket a pledge delivered. 100 days is not a long time, and doubt Trump will want to delay his domestic programme to extend a war that’s been going on for over 1,000.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 20:23 utc | 33
Road to Krasnoarmeisk:
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/01/09/966023.html
Davai, davai!!!
Posted by: Naive | Jan 9 2025 20:41 utc | 34
Milites | Jan 9 2025 20:23 utc | 33
Time to declare victory and run away?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2025 20:42 utc | 35
Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31
Judeonazi Kagan: Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months.
Wrong, correction: Ukraine and USA and France and Germany and UK and Poland and nato will lose the war.
Posted by: Naive | Jan 9 2025 20:45 utc | 36
Same question as yesterday:
How can one profit from the coming closure to this war?
How to invest into the Russian stock market?
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10.
Move to Russia, if they'll have you. That's where a productive, positive future lies.
In the west it's time to take up meditation & simple living, if you haven't already. Count your blessings & thank God for them while you still can.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 9 2025 20:45 utc | 37
When this play is available, why does the market not take advantage of it? And then it autocorrects?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 19:13 utc | 28
Well, JEMA jumped after Trump's election, so it will probably respond as well to genuine news about peace or the financial sanctions getting lifted. BEMO and Cadogan are weirdly ignored, probably because they are too small and obscure.
Counting bodies and money in one short thread, yay for humans
Posted by: Rae | Jan 9 2025 19:56 utc | 32
You know, these guys are rotting in the mud whether I buy stocks or not. Why not transmute madness and horror into money that can be used to improve things around oneself, if one has the ability to do so?
Posted by: surrenderingmonkey | Jan 9 2025 20:46 utc | 38
Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31
Thanks for the link to Big Serge; a good, meaty post by him. Simplicius does his best but sometimes I feel like I’ve eaten a meringue, an immediate taste satisfaction, followed by a sugar rush but not so much thought nourishment.
One thing though, I think Serge has possibly glossed over the Oreshnik strike on Yuzhmash; sorry to barflies for banging on about this particular hobby-horse of mine, but if was just a test with inert warheads then why is the coverage of the outcome so restricted by Ukraine/NATO?
The legacy media willingly carries visuals of Ukrainian strikes into Russia, as well as visuals of strikes by Russia in Ukraine when these can be spun negatively, but there is a complete lockdown on the results of a “test” operation. A mystery...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
"I can’t help but compare and contrast the ballyhoo over an oil depot with the complete radio silence that still blankets Yuzhmash."
Thanks for the reminder. We probably won't see any new information or pictures until the Russians take control of the site.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 9 2025 20:52 utc | 41
We can tell all the stories we want, but there is something in the Russian management that leaks from all sides, today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters,
if this isn't laxity, carelessness and fanaticism, tell me what it i
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
[email protected] must be new around here, the locals call it a pin prick, some even stomp their feet the enforce the view, not sure if they can count or know how many pin pricks equals a sucking chest wound.....pin pricks they'll tells ya, pin pricks.....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:03 utc | 43
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:03 utc | 43
More ballyhoo, and of course Yuzhmash remains undamaged and fully-operational, due to “Russian management that leaks from all sides” and Oreshnik being a “pinprick”...
Amirite???
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:06 utc | 44
Although it's almost a month old, Medvedev's essay to an extent is timeless and was written so Russians and others could digest it over the holidays, and now it can be read in English, "Dmitry Medvedev: "On National Identity and Political Choice: The Experience of Russia and China,"" https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Published in Russia's International Affairs journal, Medvedev shows the similarities in the divide and rule policies adopted by Imperialists against Russia and China to show that Russians mislabeled Ukrainians differ little from the Chinese now experiencing the attempt to make them Taiwanese.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2025 20:42 utc | 35
I’d think the exact opposite, time to acknowledge defeat and pin the blame firmly, with a stake, to the vampires who provoked it by breaking previous pledges to Russia. Then, take the now decaying corpses and behead them, shove garlic in their mouths and burn what’s left. The progressive, globalists will obviously rise again, even after all this damage, being simply the dark reflection of man’s soul, but maybe we can prepare ourselves more, in the interim.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 21:21 utc | 46
Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31
...None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position - that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly - somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.
In what way would an official Ukrainian defeat affect the level of attacks on fuel depots, military bases, refineries and other infrastructure?
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:22 utc | 47
Rolling [email protected] best way for the soldiers and their families to get rich after the war would be to open PTSD and Prosthetics Clinics, they have a built in clientele.....buy shares when they take their companies public, or look for Crematoriums, Undertakers and Coffin manufacturing whose companies trade publicly.....oh and scrap metal and de mining companies, actually come to think of it, the Prosthetics and De Mining companies might be a double win.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:24 utc | 48
We can tell all the stories we want, but there is something in the Russian management that leaks from all sides, today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters,
if this isn't laxity, carelessness and fanaticism, tell me what it i
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
Roughly 3.000 miles half arc to cover, for balistic missiles you can do it, for low flying cruise missiles and drones you can't. Then there's point dfense, but you can't do it for more than a million square milles
Would feel much safer in RF than in any other country as far as AD is concerned.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 21:26 utc | 49
In what way would an official Ukrainian defeat affect the level of attacks on fuel depots, military bases, refineries and other infrastructure?Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:22 utc | 47
Well, obviously an “official Ukrainian defeat” means that Russia no longer has to continue attacking fuel depots, military bases, refineries and other infrastructure...
What else did you have in mind?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:27 utc | 50
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:27 utc | 50
So Russia suffers attacks but cannot respond because the war has ended? Sounds like a pretty bad deal.
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:31 utc | 51
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:31 utc | 51
Ah, yes, well, that is called “terrorism”, which everyone in the West rightly condemns, yes?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:33 utc | 52
Jeremy [email protected] you right??? What makes you think the Oreshnik strike was a pin prick? The lack of visible destruction? The veil of secrecy, from both sides?
Two kids with a drone could fly one down in there in a heartbeat. Having watched a few drone competitions, now that's hand eye coordination, it wouldn't be a huge feat.
My guess, the elevators are still not working. It might take a while before evidence is collected...it might still be warm down there, we don't know what the Russians fired, and only Britkrainia knows what they had down there....likely still highly toxic.
Cheers M
......the Chinese have an execution ritual, death by a thousand cuts....the difference between a cut, and a pin prick.....at least the cuts don't go boom....
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:40 utc | 53
We probably won't see any new information or pictures until the Russians take control of the site.Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 9 2025 20:52 utc | 41
Entirely likely that we will have to wait, but there is the possibility that, as Ukraine’s internal security apparatus degrades, some enterprising partisans take a chance with flying a photographic drone near or over the site; after all, some of the monetising channels would love the opportunity to grab an exclusive like that.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:46 utc | 54
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:40 utc | 53
I wonder who raised the topic of pinpricks in the first place? It wasn’t me...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:48 utc | 55
sorry to barflies for banging on about this particular hobby-horse of mine...
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40
Not at all, please bang away -- if that's not too indecent a locution.
So many vital questions hang on the condition of Yuzhmash and the capability of Oreshnik, it's frustrating as usual to be kept in the dark with the morels and mushrooms. For instance: did the trajectory of global warfare, assumed all my life to end in nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, just sprout a potential non-nuclear offramp?
Why do I bang on about such things, myself? I'm old beyond my fair share, and I have no kids. No particular reason to give a damn whether humanity goes ahead and blows itself to smithereens. I don't even like people very much (barflies might have noticed). So my anti-nuclear concern is a puzzle to me. Maybe it's just a pretense.
Besides that, though, we've been presented the most fascinating physical dispute I can recall, over what's going on with those 36 tungsten darts, on impact! Coulomb is simply a unit of electrical charge (one amp for one second). Coulomb explosion sounds like a bunch of electrical charge going boom. I did that to my right thumbnail once. Nearly burned it off pinching a live cord with wire cutters.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 9 2025 21:58 utc | 56
re: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
From Pravda:"The oil depot in Engels....
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 19:43 utc | 29
Is Pravda similar to Pravda on the Potemac ?
Posted by: DM: | Jan 9 2025 22:05 utc | 57
Big Serge today.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-kievan-debellation
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 58
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:33 utc | 52
Ah, yes, well, that is called “terrorism”, which everyone in the West rightly condemns, yes?I doubt many people in the West will call it terrorism. But, be that as it may, would it lessen the impact of the strikes?
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 59
b@31, Kagan quote 12 to 18 months for total Russian control…. Is that all of Ukraine or just the four Novorussiya oblasts? I think the time frame for the latter may be about right, but analysts like Sleboda and Mercouris are beginning to voice the thought that it will be necessary to take the entire country, including the fundamentally hostile to Russia West Ukraine which will permanently remain as a festering source of underground resistance. I’m inclined to agree, as it takes time to extend logistics, and a dying hegemon is likely to continue to try to undermine Russia from every direction and border that can possibly be exploited via fires large and small.. So how long to get to Ukraine’s borders with Europe, considering the need to extend logistics and put in place local controls over a not so friendly populous? I don’t know, but longer than 18 months, I’d wager.
Posted by: mjh | Jan 9 2025 22:10 utc | 60
I doubt many people in the West will call it terrorism.
Well I suppose that's just a matter of perspective, innit? Seems likely that over time more people, even in the benighted West, will agree. Given it's the truth and all. Remind me, who is shelling the Zaporozhye NPP? One frustrated Ukrainian going postal and killing some Americans later and the whole narrative apple cart falls over. Oops!
Terrorism is a tool of the weak. Impotence aside, im not sure what your point is. When the dollar reaches appropriate valuation, Maerica will be too busy dealing with endless crises to fund psychopaths in any measurable quantity. They might even come to regret decisions they have made in haste, assuming they are even capable of analysis.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 22:19 utc | 61
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 59
M’kay, let’s try again; the attacks are terrorism, intended to intimidate, cow and ultimately aggravate the population into rising up and overthrowing the government, is that what you are thinking/hoping for?
Didn’t work for the IRA, only when financial interests were attacked in the City of London (Paternoster Square, Baltic Exchange etc) did the move towards some kind of settlement gain momentum.
So maybe Ukraine/NATO should target the Moscow stock exchange? Except we still see reports of Western multinationals retaining some kind of holding in their Russian assets, sanctions schmanctions.
So why are you so “concerned” about the impact of any strikes?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 22:21 utc | 62
Posted by: Ed | Jan 9 2025 17:51 "Isn't the end of war profitable for the troops and their families on both sides of a conflict?"
For the troops that are still alive? Sure. They are still alive. But the costs of the war will continue be paid for a generation or two.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 9 2025 22:30 utc | 63
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
We can tell all the stories we want, but there is something in the Russian management that leaks from all sides, today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters,
if this isn't laxity, carelessness and fanaticism, tell me what it i
Hmmm..I seem to recall that a few months ago a Chinese “weather” balloon entered US air space undetected, and when it was finally targeted-after the surveillance threat had been established-, it was finally downed by an F22 on the US East coast. Prior to that, all other attempts to shoot the thing down had failed.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:36 utc | 64
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
Lol. I'm still as obsessed/fascinated about the Yuzhmash silence as you. Some folks here have said "Ah, don't worry about it. Let it go". But I think it was a major significant event in the history of weaponry. And yet, crickets! I can't wait for the full story ... if ever.
Posted by: Englishman in NY | Jan 9 2025 22:39 utc | 65
When the dollar reaches appropriate valuation, Maerica will be too busy dealing with endless crises to fund psychopaths in any measurable quantity.Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 22:19 utc | 61
Preach it, Doc! Might be time to repost this as a reminder...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 22:41 utc | 66
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected and some are impossible to shoot down. Furthermore, I doubt very much indeed that Kiev has the abilkity to fly a drone 1,000km into Russia. Its more likely been launched locally, within perhaps 25km. The "1000km2 bollox is for PR purposes only.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67
A speculation: 404 industrial targets seem, to my childish wordplay, to be homonymic at least in English. (If there be such an adjective).
You's Smashed.
Motor Sucks.
What, one idly wonders, comes next?
Dima says that the west is not tired of war and that in Ramstein they decided to give Ukraine everything it needs. POland is sending tanks.
There is no change in the mindset, Europeans just love this war,
It is clear that Trump is going to follow the same policy.
Dima also says that many Ukro units are trapped in cauldrons, but that Russia wont attack them but rather wait until they leave.
Posted by: vargas | Jan 9 2025 22:44 utc | 69
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 22:21 utc | 62
M’kay, let’s try again; the attacks are terrorism, intended to intimidate, cow and ultimately aggravate the population into rising up and overthrowing the government, is that what you are thinking/hoping for?...No. I would think that attacks on infrastructure, defence assets and anything of value is meant to weaken Russia.
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 22:52 utc | 70
Although it's almost a month old, Medvedev's essay to an extent is timeless and was written so Russians and others could digest it over the holidays, and now it can be read in English, "Dmitry Medvedev: "On National Identity and Political Choice: The Experience of Russia and China,"" https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Published in Russia's International Affairs journal, Medvedev shows the similarities in the divide and rule policies adopted by Imperialists against Russia and China to show that Russians mislabeled Ukrainians differ little from the Chinese now experiencing the attempt to make them Taiwanese.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 9 2025 21:19 utc | 45
Not sure I agree with him, I think the Veneti were already composed of, at least, two major lineages.
But on the other hand any long term sustainable not to expansive empire always needs (and has) 4 or 5 just to assure continuity (and that is done often with language, even a very distinct lineage like the koreans kept connection with china in serious literature)
This on the homogeneity, on the forcing of split, etc, no doubt.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 22:59 utc | 71
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 9 2025 21:58 utc | 56
sorry to barflies for banging on about this particular hobby-horse of mine...
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40
Not at all, please bang away -- if that's not too indecent a locution.
So many vital questions hang on the condition of Yuzhmash and the capability of Oreshnik, it's frustrating as usual to be kept in the dark with the morels and mushrooms. For instance: did the trajectory of global warfare, assumed all my life to end in nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, just sprout a potential non-nuclear offramp?
Agreed. No need to apologise JRL, and please keep on thumping the Orishmik tub.
The existence of this system which appears so incredibly accurate and destructive has been a very, very unpleasant surprise to Western war planners. As Aleph Null remarked, it might provide an off ramp to complete nuclear destruction.
But of course, there are a great many questions to be answered about Orishnik. The Yuzhmesh strike indicates that it is devastating to subterranean facilities (including missile silos, command bunkers and the like), but can it be re-jigged to be effective against other types of target.
Like everyone else here, I would dearly love to know what the “warhead” really was.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 22:59 utc | 72
Daily DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Another slow day for the RFA. 9.8 kmsq taken. Compare to 14/day in DEC or 23/day in NOV.
Several small advances in Pokrovsk/Kurakhove area, plus a small advance at the Oskil crossing.
Large advance in Kursk. (Not counted in kmsq above, as the UFA gains were not counted for them in AUG.)
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 9 2025 23:00 utc | 73
I would think that attacks on infrastructure, defence assets and anything of value is meant to weaken Russia.Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 22:52 utc | 70
Thanks for replying. In your view, how successful do you think such an approach will be, in weakening Russia? Is the policy sustainable over the long-term? Will it even achieve anything substantive, in terms of actually weakening Russia?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:01 utc | 74
Big Serge today.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-kievan-debellation
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 58
Since his syria post I've been checking evvery day (just in the last 24 hours several times) but you beat me to it.
Will read right away, as I mentioned, he seldom posts, but typically it's worth the wait.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 23:01 utc | 75
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 22:19 utc | 61
Perhaps. But that day appears far away. The West very much holds the narrative high ground and its opponents don't seem up to the task to upset that power balance.I doubt many people in the West will call it terrorism.Well I suppose that's just a matter of perspective, innit? Seems likely that over time more people, even in the benighted West, will agree. Given it's the truth and all.
Remind me, who is shelling the Zaporozhye NPP? One frustrated Ukrainian going postal and killing some Americans later and the whole narrative apple cart falls over. Oops!In case it isn't obvious here, I'm not the one you should ask of who's shelling the NPP. That's a question for the aforementioned people that need some convincing to change their perspective.
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 23:05 utc | 76
Posted by: Englishman in NY | Jan 9 2025 22:39 utc | 65
Lol. I'm still as obsessed/fascinated about the Yuzhmash silence as you. Some folks here have said "Ah, don't worry about it. Let it go". But I think it was a major significant event in the history of weaponry. And yet, crickets! I can't wait for the full story ... if ever.
Totally agree with this-as implied in my@ 72.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 23:12 utc | 77
Posted by: vargas | Jan 9 2025 22:44 utc | 69
Funny how I watched the same video and had a different set of takeaway’s.
Anyhoo, something to consider: trapping the IAF in cauldrons and not simply obliterating them has several pluses:
1. Saves men/Resources for other fronts
2. Leaves large groups of Ukrainian forces “pinned” as in chess when a piece is pinned to the board .
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2025 23:24 utc | 78
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:01 utc | 74
Thanks for replying. In your view, how successful do you think such an approach will be, in weakening Russia? Is the policy sustainable over the long-term? Will it even achieve anything substantive, in terms of actually weakening Russia?I would think that the destruction certainly adds up. There's also the induced cost from things taken offline like refineries, closed bridges and such. Then there's the strategic aspect of losing certain military assets.
As for the sustainability of these operations, I would expect that the cost / return ratio is very favourable to the West. I also believe that anyone expecting bankruptcy to put an end to the attacks is setting himself up for disappointment.
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 23:25 utc | 79
did the trajectory of global warfare, assumed all my life to end in nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, just sprout a potential non-nuclear offramp?Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 9 2025 21:58 utc | 56
I’ve been wondering about something similar myself. My understanding of, at least part of, the rationale behind nukes was to compensate for inaccuracy; “We need to hit this target, but we’re only accurate to 5 miles, therefore we need a blast diameter of 10 miles”, anything else destroyed just went on the balance-sheet of war as “collateral damage”.
The advent of highly-accurate and very fast conventional systems, capable of combining kinetic and chemical energy in a forceful impact has (hopefully) caused nuclear weapons to increasingly being seen as superseded...
Unless, of course, one side happens to have lagged behind or even neglected its research and decides to nuke everything anyway, which is the scary part for me.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:38 utc | 80
Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 23:25 utc | 79
Fair enough, a lot of beliefs and expectations there, of which I can be also charged as guilty.
Regarding bankruptcy though, that is not entirely the same as unaffordability, which the global bond markets might voice their opinion about.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:45 utc | 81
#40 Jeremy R..-Lang & #41 Paranaense...Hal Turner Radio Show published on 01/06/2025 close-up picture of place where ORESCHNIK it's horrifying picture...you can still find out .
First let us start with the obvious, from the failure of the 2023 summer offensive and RF taking the offensive it was over for the AFU.
One major point that I see very few mention is that RF has, by its own words, mobilized or recruited a million men these last2 years and a half, but only grew its army by half a million. Likewise AFU grew at least twice to the million mark and lost them (and has been bleeding strongly in 2024 in spite of never reaching previous size). Basically RF lost half a million men (that RF can afford), and AFU lost 3 million (that ukraine can't afford)
One thing that big serg only implies, but never states explicitly, is that the detour of fresh meat, to shiny new units, left the veteran core of more seasoned units exposed to a disproportional attrition, this reduction of seasoned units is the key to collapse.
A second point that by reading the article becomes obvious is a strange phenomenon that can only be explained by one of two explanations:
1. The west believes there is a weapons system that is a solve all and is trying to figure out which
2. The west has always sabotaged any serious effort by the AFU to truly reverse the course of the SMO.
Would option 2 fit with Blinken's comment that they kept well clear of direct conflict with RF and risk of WW3?
Now javelins and stingers, then tanks and armored vehicles, then standoff missiles. Doesn't make much sense.
Final notes, big serge understands as little as most of us why the hell kursk but, as many here have guessed by now, knows it was a catastrophic move.
As a second big serge sees the hazelnut more as a warning of unstoppable nukes than anything else, let's agree that if that is enough, anything more would be bonus (though the range would point to a limited nuclear war just in europe...)
I'll end with ending but suggest everyone read the full article (I mentioned more what was not explicitly said (or said at all) .
In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation - defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat - once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat - is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan - a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one - now says the quiet part out loud:
Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
Indeed.
None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position - that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly - somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.
Carthago delenda est
P.S. by Newbie : Concerning kagan's estimate, as anything coming from him, I'd suggest you divide the numbers by no less than 2 to get a true estimate and consider the upper number with a children's crusade included and being able to remove enough troops from the east in time
P.P.S. B had posted even earlier, kudos to B, seems like I was not the only one waiting eagerly, for some other posters, the kagan number is probably for running out of men, that's why I mention the youngsters in the P.S..
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 83
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40
Q:…why is the coverage of the outcome so restricted by Ukraine/NATO?
A: Pics or it didn’t happen.
QED. Nothing happened.
—-
And, even when “we” *do* have pics… like Dancing Israelis on 9/11, facts can be easily transmuted …. Israelis are now puff-voila, “pakistanis”.
__
Soon, the much ignored mighty Russian walnut, will be little more than a soggy peanut.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 10 2025 0:35 utc | 85
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 83
One thing to note is that some Russian "losses" are due to ends of duty tours, not casualty. Iirc, the volunteers are something like 6 month deals which may or may not be renewed.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 1:05 utc | 86
#40 Jeremy R..-Lang & #41 Paranaense...Hal Turner Radio Show published on 01/06/2025 close-up picture of place where ORESCHNIK it's horrifying picture...you can still find out .
Posted by: sejmon | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 82
Debunked weeks ago. Iirc, old pic of a salt mine.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 1:10 utc | 87
@ b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31 with the link and quote of Robert Kagan who said
"
Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months.
"
I would just posit that since Kagan is admitting defeat then the timing is not up to him, is it? This continued control of the global narrative in the face of alternative reality is not working like before and breaking down after repeated examples of outright lies.
If anything this is a negotiating tactic saying to Russia that empire can bleed them for another 18 months. This conflict is existential for Russia so it will fall on deaf ears and is BS anyway.
Will financial collapse occur before Ukraine surrender? The fires in LA just might tip the scales as the reality and metaphor of Hollywood dying becomes clear.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 10 2025 1:12 utc | 88
@Mary | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:05:00 GMT | 86
One thing to note is that some Russian "losses" are due to ends of duty tours, not casualty. Iirc, the volunteers are something like 6 month deals which may or may not be renewed.
No, those aren't counted as losses. Those are personnel changes, discharges. No military in the world counts discharges as losses.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:13 utc | 89
Dear Sean, Dim Mak literally "death by touch" or pin prick strike to Meridian channels. Death can be delayed depending on the exact location chosen.
Thank you, apology accepted.
On the subject of Oreshnik, BMA has series 3 out on the subject. In the latest, a report from first responders reported seeing pools of lava.
Anyone seen what happens when a drop of water hots molten aluminum?
4000 degrees Celsius hit earth with x amount of moisture. Do the math.
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 10 2025 1:15 utc | 90
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 83
One thing to note is that some Russian "losses" are due to ends of duty tours, not casualty. Iirc, the volunteers are something like 6 month deals which may or may not be renewed.
Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 1:05 utc | 86
No, those aren't counted as losses. Those are personnel changes, discharges. No military in the world counts discharges as losses.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:13 utc | 89
She is right that I did a simple initial stock, end stock, known input to get the output.
But the 300.000 mobilized continue mobilized and I find very hard to believe that RF would pay nice bonus for a period, 6 months, where you can't even give a proper basic training. Those are longer contracts with 90%+ probability.
I'm sure milites will agree nobody will pay to have a 6 month soldier.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 1:23 utc | 92
@Newbie | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 00:13:00 GMT | 83
Basically RF lost half a million men (that RF can afford), and AFU lost 3 million (that ukraine can't afford)
Still highly dubious numbers. I agree that Russia can afford its losses while Ukraine cannot, but I don't think the ratios are anywhere close to 6 to 1. At 3 million losses that would be three times Ukraine's current mobilized strength is gone. That means fifty percent of its total mobilized strength is irrevocable losses. No military in the history of the world has sustained that amount of loss and still been a viable fighting force.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:26 utc | 93
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 83 "1. The west believes there is a weapons system that is a solve all and is trying to figure out which"
Nah, it is clear that the west believes the longer they keep Ukraine in the fight the higher the cost to Russia. And the only wonder weapon the west has used has been it's continued ability to supply Ukraine with enough weapons and ammunition to keep it in the fight.
3 days? https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/1697553040071430306 Looks like 3 years.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:28 utc | 94
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:26 utc | 93 "but I don't think the ratios are anywhere close to 6 to 1"
Wow, you are down from the 10-1 that has been parroted here for well, years.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:32 utc | 95
Still highly dubious numbers. I agree that Russia can afford its losses while Ukraine cannot, but I don't think the ratios are anywhere close to 6 to 1. At 3 million losses that would be three times Ukraine's current mobilized strength is gone. That means fifty percent of its total mobilized strength is irrevocable losses. No military in the history of the world has sustained that amount of loss and still been a viable fighting force.
Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:26 utc | 93
Agreed with a small correction on "No military in the history of the world has sustained that amount of loss and still been a viable fighting force.",
But you never had a country that relied exclusively on external means against pushing meat into thee grinder.
This should have ended long ago, this is a completely atypical situation. Usually any country cries uncle at the 30% bar... that was a year ago.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 1:35 utc | 96
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:28 utc | 94
oh god, another one that swallowed milleys 3day lie. keep it up nafo!
Posted by: J | Jan 10 2025 1:37 utc | 97
[email protected] for clearing that up, you must feel much better....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 10 2025 1:43 utc | 98
Man, that guy "Big Serge" writes too much and thinks too little. What a blowhard.
Regarding his very first point about territory gained, RFA only took a little over half a percent in 2024, and still controls only a little over 18%. Even in the headliner oblast of Donetsk, RFA only took 4.5% of it, moving from 62% to 66.5% over the year.
Somehow despite all this blablah of "muh attrition" and "muh desertion" and other copium/hopium, the UFA is STILL holding the RFA to a snail's pace advance.
On top of that, the guy doesn't make a clear prediction of what 2025 will look like at the end. Nor did he do so for 2024. That's cowardly. Get to claim "I never said there would be a collapse" when it doesn't happen. But publish these long meandering posts implying UFA is on last legs.
Call me in 2030 at this rate! Heck call me in 2050. I mean is RFA going to achieve its objectives before Putin dies? And I mean, not saying he is sick. Just if he lives another 10 or 20 years. Because that's what it looks like for RFA to even capture the "4 oblasts", let alone all the silly claims here of "to Galicia" or "to Lviv" or "to the river" or "getting Odessa" (which is STILL on the other side of the river, a very big fat river that has prevented RFA or UFA movement for over a year).
Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 10 2025 1:45 utc | 99
Still hung up on territory measured in sq km, huh, anonymous?
It's difficult to understand how one-dimensional some folks are. I mean, come on, you get it that taking 10 sq km of open fields isn't as valuable as seizing an important urban rail junction, or a lithium mine. We all know you're not dumb.
Perhaps your salary won't let you understand?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 10 2025 1:48 utc | 100
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