– The new offensive in Kursk region stopped and now a Russian offensive there within 2-3km of the only supply road through Sudzha.
– Breakout across the Zherebrets River toward Lyman
– The last high ground/industrial zone of Chasov Yar being flanked from the north and south
– Toretsk now taken
– The highway between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka cut
– The highway between Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia in the process of being cut
– The highway between Pokrovsk and Dnipro within 5km of the front (i.e. dominated by Russian drones)
– Yet another pocket being created west of Kurakhove
– Velyka Novosilka how surrounded
The Russians are keeping the important game, not being distracted, changes the facts on the ground. The Ukrainian attacks are simply desperate attempts of a losing side with no real strategic impact.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 9 2025 16:23 utc | 3

Do you mean the strike on the Cherkizovo Chicken Kingdom? Yeah, real strategically significant. Russia is doing a fine job striking back in my view as results attest.
Oh you mean Engels. Yeah, Russia has hardly any fuel depots, I mean after all they’re a gas station right? Ukraine as always clutching at any old straw to throw the compliant stenographer Western media who have shown themselves to be shameless propagandists.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 16:32 utc | 5

The Neo-Nazi dictator – will remove the opposition if needs be.
“Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky could press criminal charges against former Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, should he decide to run for the presidency, Kiev-based Telegraf reported on Wednesday. Zelensky has refused to hold elections or leave office after he cancelled a vote scheduled for May 2024.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 9 2025 16:38 utc | 7

Simplicius still thinks the MOD’s numbers are the upper limit, but he should consider how many age brackets were exhausted.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/medley-report-israels-rising-threat
But the next admission is the big one, and demonstrates how the West is finally coming around to admitting Ukraine’s catastrophic casualty figures:
The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount.
So not only is 400k casualties an undercount, it’s a vast undercount. How vast are we talking? 600k? 800k? 1 million? It seems the official Western narratives lately comes closer and closer to aligning with the Russian MOD figures.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 17:00 utc | 9

I took a stroll over to turcopolier, Pat Lang’s old blog (RIP.)
The discussion was surprisingly adult, with even a few of our regular barflies over there.
Maybe we could re-direct some of the resident trolls here over there? Share the wealth!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2025 17:48 utc | 11

Isn’t the end of war profitable for the troops and their families on both sides of a conflict?
Posted by: Ed | Jan 9 2025 17:51 utc | 12
______________
Without a question! And that is, of course, the way more important consideration. And one that I read on this blog often.
I don’t want to come across as cold in this regard. But for most of us living in western nations there is not much we can do to help.
So, the question is of an egoistic nature, I give you that.
But it still is not letting me go.

Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 18:00 utc | 13

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2025 18:03 utc | 14
I appreciate the answers.
But I come from a more game-theoretical angle, maybe?
The stakes in this clash of systems are high. There are huge bets on both sides; the tenor on this side seems to be that the presented odds are inaccurate. This feels like a huge arbitrage opportunity.
Where is this argument wrong?

Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 18:10 utc | 15

The West will have its MSM post an accurate accounting of AFU casualties just prior to making it clear that its washed its hands of “the corrupt and incompetent Zelenskyy regime in Kiev”. If we’re now seeing the presstitutes starting to post less inaccurate numbers, it’s so as to have their ducks in a row for when the reality on the ground can no longer be denied*.
Once a new regime governs Ukraine, and it cuts a deal with the Russian Federation, it will be to their advantage to let its people know just how colossally its predecessor fracked things up. Trump will blame the Biden administration for the state things are in, and the new government in Kiev will emulate that.
*Zelenskyy will become the sin eater, and the media will forgive itself for its years of inaccurate reporting by creating the impression that the blame for all of that can be laid at his door. Everyone in the Village in Washington will want to go along with that narrative, and if Zelenskyy too conspicuously objects to that portrayal, we’ll be reading reports of how his helicopter got shot down, or his train got taken out by partisans.
P.S. Part of the peace process will involve massive loans to Ukraine, and those with the right connections will be allowed to service that debt, and it will be guaranteed by Western governments. All of Ukraine’s remaining assets will be the ultimate guarantee. In this way everyone who lost out from profiting from the territory that the Russian Federation occupies will be able to recoup its losses and its investments in the political class itself.
Yadda, yadda, yadda, imo the takeaway here could soon be that the West will bank on Ukraine being defeated, and it’s that defeat which will allow them to dictate terms which will enrich the private sector of their respective nations. It’s simply the Kansas City Shuffle, just on a yooge scale.
Kansas City Shuffle scene from movie Lucky number Slevin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq62W4RNeHo

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 9 2025 18:22 utc | 17

How to invest into the Russian stock market?
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10
It’s pretty easy and I’ve been doing it since 2022. On the London stock market, you can buy:
JEMA
Former JPMorgan Russian Securities, still full of russian shares (worth about 3-4 pounds per share) valued at 0 and dividends waiting to be thawed on a S account. Should easily trade around 6-7 pounds when financial sanctions are listed.
BEMO
Same idea but less risky than JEMA, as here you buy a basket of Middle Eastern and Emerging Europe stocks for a discount, with about one pound worth of russian shares valued 0. Some dividends as well.
Cadogan
On the opposite side: that’s a small Ukrainian Oil & Gas company building a gas-powered power plant close to Lvov. Very unlikely to be attacked, far from the frontline, current price value the company at about half their cash in bank (USD and EUR held in London). No debt, and I believe their little power plant will be a cashcow with Ukraine energy issues.
Some people are betting on other Ukrainian companies like Ferrexpo, Enwell, or MHC but they are on the wrong side of the Dniepr, in Poltava. I don’t want to touch that.
Also, did you know some companies like BP or Japan Tobacco never actually got rid of their shares in Russian companies despite making a big show of wanting to do it? BP still owns about 20% of Rosneft.
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
I would not bet on that. Germany is not a sovereign country, it’s a US puppet, and currently the marching order seems to be that all of Europe must turn “far-right” to attack Russia again later, around 2028-29, when an older Putin will have to hand the reins to a heir. Only Macron and Starmer remain, and maybe not for long.

Posted by: surrenderingmonkey | Jan 9 2025 18:30 utc | 19

9….general thoughts are about 1m..today seems to be 500000 have managed to escape recruitment…60000 ISH have absconded…..yet Z said the other day he had 1m in his army. Uhuh sounds a lot of theoretical to me.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:35 utc | 21

Since the beginning of 2022, many foreign investors have had their cash flows blocked due to conflict-related sanctions and Moscow’s countermeasures.
In March 2024 month, Russia launched an asset swap program that allows investors to exchange frozen Western securities for Russian assets. Two rounds of the program have freed up about $102 million in assets.
But Mr Rogers – who owns shares in major Russian companies such as the national airline Aeroflot – did not participate. Instead, he expressed a desire to continue holding assets in Russia and even plans to buy more when the market reopens to foreign investors.
“I would be very interested in the opportunity to buy more shares in Aeroflot, in the Moscow Stock Exchange, and many other things if there is real peace,” Mr. Rogers said.
According to him, the Russian market is not a safe choice for most foreign investors at the moment because of the risks associated with the conflict, including concerns about possible asset seizures. But he believes that once the conflict is resolved, the Russian market will boom, with bond prices rising and the ruble strengthening.
“If the situation changes, I will seriously consider investing in bonds and rubles,” he said, adding that stocks on the Moscow Exchange and the travel and tourism industry would benefit greatly as tensions ease.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2025 18:37 utc | 23

@ Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:37 utc | 22
Its NAV is three big cents and the find, according to the iShares website, “is in the process of liquidation”. See https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239677/ishares-msci-russia-capped-etf

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 18:49 utc | 25

@ Klaus | Jan 9 2025 18:53 utc | 26
No worries! It’s only because of my natural laziness that I hadn’t sunk (and lost) big bucks on it myself — it had been on my Schwab “watch list” for several months when the SMO started…

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2025 19:00 utc | 27

re: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1
From Pravda:
“The oil depot in Engels (1000 km from Ukraine) continues to burn after a Ukrainian drones strike, and the fire is spreading, engulfing other tanks, which exploded.
Governor Busargin reported that two Emergencies Ministry employees died in the process of extinguishing the fire. One was taken to hospital.
Smoke covered half the city, the flames are visible from almost anywhere in Engels. The governor assures that air samples are being taken by specialists from the Rospotrebnadzor department, and no excess of pollutants has been recorded.
A state of emergency has been declared in the city.”
The oil and fuel depot supplies the Engels-2 Air Base, which houses the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, which operates Tu-160 bombers, and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with Tu-95 MS planes.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 19:43 utc | 29

Big Serge with another excellent writeup of the state of the war:
Total Kievan Debellation – The Russo-Ukrainian War: Year 3
He concludes:

In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation – defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat – once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat – is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan – a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one – now says the quiet part out loud:

Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

Indeed.
None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position – that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly – somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.

Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 17:00 utc | 9
Trump all but confirmed the official figures are fantasy, ‘ Ukraine — that’s a disaster. I look at numbers every week.’ He’s already called the figures, horrific, so one route to shut down the conflict might be to reveal the true casualty figures, or hint at them. This would stop the, ‘Ukraine could have won if the US had kept its nerve’, narrative dead in it tracks, cause an immediate backlash that could remove Zelensky, and give Trump the political cover to end the war, by blaming the Biden administration for lying about the true state of the war, as they did regarding Afghanistan.
Trump needs to concentrate on domestic issues, where the window for passing legislation, that can affect the economy, is measured in months, otherwise the Democrats have a chance of winning the House in ‘26 and the endless ‘investigations’ begin. The Ukraine tar baby needs to be dropped in the trash quickly, lest it disrupt this timeline, assign blame, and pocket a pledge delivered. 100 days is not a long time, and doubt Trump will want to delay his domestic programme to extend a war that’s been going on for over 1,000.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 20:23 utc | 33

Milites | Jan 9 2025 20:23 utc | 33
Time to declare victory and run away?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2025 20:42 utc | 35

Same question as yesterday:
How can one profit from the coming closure to this war?
How to invest into the Russian stock market?
How to bet on the relationship between Russia and Germany improving?
How can I invest in China (and have that investment be in the Yuan)? Betting long on a strong Yuan compared to the Dollar?
Posted by: Rolling Rubel | Jan 9 2025 17:38 utc | 10.
Move to Russia, if they’ll have you. That’s where a productive, positive future lies.
In the west it’s time to take up meditation & simple living, if you haven’t already. Count your blessings & thank God for them while you still can.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 9 2025 20:45 utc | 37

@ b post 31.
Yes, here we are.

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 9 2025 20:49 utc | 39

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
“I can’t help but compare and contrast the ballyhoo over an oil depot with the complete radio silence that still blankets Yuzhmash.”
Thanks for the reminder. We probably won’t see any new information or pictures until the Russians take control of the site.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 9 2025 20:52 utc | 41

Cagliostro@42…..you must be new around here, the locals call it a pin prick, some even stomp their feet the enforce the view, not sure if they can count or know how many pin pricks equals a sucking chest wound…..pin pricks they’ll tells ya, pin pricks…..
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:03 utc | 43

Although it’s almost a month old, Medvedev’s essay to an extent is timeless and was written so Russians and others could digest it over the holidays, and now it can be read in English, “Dmitry Medvedev: “On National Identity and Political Choice: The Experience of Russia and China,”” https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Published in Russia’s International Affairs journal, Medvedev shows the similarities in the divide and rule policies adopted by Imperialists against Russia and China to show that Russians mislabeled Ukrainians differ little from the Chinese now experiencing the attempt to make them Taiwanese.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 9 2025 21:19 utc | 45

Posted by: b | Jan 9 2025 19:50 utc | 31

…None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position – that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly – somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.

In what way would an official Ukrainian defeat affect the level of attacks on fuel depots, military bases, refineries and other infrastructure?

Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:22 utc | 47

We can tell all the stories we want, but there is something in the Russian management that leaks from all sides, today, at least 15 Ukronazi drones flew over Russia for over 1000 km without anyone noticing, and a fuel depot was hit, there are dead and injured among the firefighters,
if this isn’t laxity, carelessness and fanaticism, tell me what it i
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
Roughly 3.000 miles half arc to cover, for balistic missiles you can do it, for low flying cruise missiles and drones you can’t. Then there’s point dfense, but you can’t do it for more than a million square milles
Would feel much safer in RF than in any other country as far as AD is concerned.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 21:26 utc | 49

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:27 utc | 50
So Russia suffers attacks but cannot respond because the war has ended? Sounds like a pretty bad deal.

Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 21:31 utc | 51

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@44….is you right??? What makes you think the Oreshnik strike was a pin prick? The lack of visible destruction? The veil of secrecy, from both sides?
Two kids with a drone could fly one down in there in a heartbeat. Having watched a few drone competitions, now that’s hand eye coordination, it wouldn’t be a huge feat.
My guess, the elevators are still not working. It might take a while before evidence is collected…it might still be warm down there, we don’t know what the Russians fired, and only Britkrainia knows what they had down there….likely still highly toxic.
Cheers M
……the Chinese have an execution ritual, death by a thousand cuts….the difference between a cut, and a pin prick…..at least the cuts don’t go boom….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:40 utc | 53

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 9 2025 21:40 utc | 53
I wonder who raised the topic of pinpricks in the first place? It wasn’t me…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:48 utc | 55

re: g wiltek | Jan 9 2025 16:01 utc | 1

From Pravda:
“The oil depot in Engels….
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 19:43 utc | 29

Is Pravda similar to Pravda on the Potemac ?

Posted by: DM: | Jan 9 2025 22:05 utc | 57

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 21:33 utc | 52

Ah, yes, well, that is called “terrorism”, which everyone in the West rightly condemns, yes?

I doubt many people in the West will call it terrorism. But, be that as it may, would it lessen the impact of the strikes?

Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 59

I doubt many people in the West will call it terrorism.

Well I suppose that’s just a matter of perspective, innit? Seems likely that over time more people, even in the benighted West, will agree. Given it’s the truth and all. Remind me, who is shelling the Zaporozhye NPP? One frustrated Ukrainian going postal and killing some Americans later and the whole narrative apple cart falls over. Oops!
Terrorism is a tool of the weak. Impotence aside, im not sure what your point is. When the dollar reaches appropriate valuation, Maerica will be too busy dealing with endless crises to fund psychopaths in any measurable quantity. They might even come to regret decisions they have made in haste, assuming they are even capable of analysis.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 9 2025 22:19 utc | 61

Posted by: Ed | Jan 9 2025 17:51 “Isn’t the end of war profitable for the troops and their families on both sides of a conflict?”
For the troops that are still alive? Sure. They are still alive. But the costs of the war will continue be paid for a generation or two.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 9 2025 22:30 utc | 63

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 16:35 utc | 6
Lol. I’m still as obsessed/fascinated about the Yuzhmash silence as you. Some folks here have said “Ah, don’t worry about it. Let it go”. But I think it was a major significant event in the history of weaponry. And yet, crickets! I can’t wait for the full story … if ever.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Jan 9 2025 22:39 utc | 65

Posted by: Cagliostro | Jan 9 2025 20:56 utc | 42
Russian missiles can fly up 3,500km, not be detected and some are impossible to shoot down. Furthermore, I doubt very much indeed that Kiev has the abilkity to fly a drone 1,000km into Russia. Its more likely been launched locally, within perhaps 25km. The “1000km2 bollox is for PR purposes only.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2025 22:42 utc | 67

Dima says that the west is not tired of war and that in Ramstein they decided to give Ukraine everything it needs. POland is sending tanks.
There is no change in the mindset, Europeans just love this war,
It is clear that Trump is going to follow the same policy.
Dima also says that many Ukro units are trapped in cauldrons, but that Russia wont attack them but rather wait until they leave.

Posted by: vargas | Jan 9 2025 22:44 utc | 69

Although it’s almost a month old, Medvedev’s essay to an extent is timeless and was written so Russians and others could digest it over the holidays, and now it can be read in English, “Dmitry Medvedev: “On National Identity and Political Choice: The Experience of Russia and China,”” https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Published in Russia’s International Affairs journal, Medvedev shows the similarities in the divide and rule policies adopted by Imperialists against Russia and China to show that Russians mislabeled Ukrainians differ little from the Chinese now experiencing the attempt to make them Taiwanese.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 9 2025 21:19 utc | 45
Not sure I agree with him, I think the Veneti were already composed of, at least, two major lineages.
But on the other hand any long term sustainable not to expansive empire always needs (and has) 4 or 5 just to assure continuity (and that is done often with language, even a very distinct lineage like the koreans kept connection with china in serious literature)
This on the homogeneity, on the forcing of split, etc, no doubt.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 22:59 utc | 71

Daily DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Another slow day for the RFA. 9.8 kmsq taken. Compare to 14/day in DEC or 23/day in NOV.
Several small advances in Pokrovsk/Kurakhove area, plus a small advance at the Oskil crossing.
Large advance in Kursk. (Not counted in kmsq above, as the UFA gains were not counted for them in AUG.)

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 9 2025 23:00 utc | 73

Big Serge today.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-kievan-debellation
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 9 2025 22:07 utc | 58
Since his syria post I’ve been checking evvery day (just in the last 24 hours several times) but you beat me to it.
Will read right away, as I mentioned, he seldom posts, but typically it’s worth the wait.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 9 2025 23:01 utc | 75

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Jan 9 2025 22:39 utc | 65
Lol. I’m still as obsessed/fascinated about the Yuzhmash silence as you. Some folks here have said “Ah, don’t worry about it. Let it go”. But I think it was a major significant event in the history of weaponry. And yet, crickets! I can’t wait for the full story … if ever.
Totally agree with this-as implied in my@ 72.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 9 2025 23:12 utc | 77

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:01 utc | 74

Thanks for replying. In your view, how successful do you think such an approach will be, in weakening Russia? Is the policy sustainable over the long-term? Will it even achieve anything substantive, in terms of actually weakening Russia?

I would think that the destruction certainly adds up. There’s also the induced cost from things taken offline like refineries, closed bridges and such. Then there’s the strategic aspect of losing certain military assets.
As for the sustainability of these operations, I would expect that the cost / return ratio is very favourable to the West. I also believe that anyone expecting bankruptcy to put an end to the attacks is setting himself up for disappointment.

Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 23:25 utc | 79

Posted by: robin | Jan 9 2025 23:25 utc | 79
Fair enough, a lot of beliefs and expectations there, of which I can be also charged as guilty.
Regarding bankruptcy though, that is not entirely the same as unaffordability, which the global bond markets might voice their opinion about.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 23:45 utc | 81

First let us start with the obvious, from the failure of the 2023 summer offensive and RF taking the offensive it was over for the AFU.
One major point that I see very few mention is that RF has, by its own words, mobilized or recruited a million men these last2 years and a half, but only grew its army by half a million. Likewise AFU grew at least twice to the million mark and lost them (and has been bleeding strongly in 2024 in spite of never reaching previous size). Basically RF lost half a million men (that RF can afford), and AFU lost 3 million (that ukraine can’t afford)
One thing that big serg only implies, but never states explicitly, is that the detour of fresh meat, to shiny new units, left the veteran core of more seasoned units exposed to a disproportional attrition, this reduction of seasoned units is the key to collapse.
A second point that by reading the article becomes obvious is a strange phenomenon that can only be explained by one of two explanations:
1. The west believes there is a weapons system that is a solve all and is trying to figure out which
2. The west has always sabotaged any serious effort by the AFU to truly reverse the course of the SMO.
Would option 2 fit with Blinken’s comment that they kept well clear of direct conflict with RF and risk of WW3?
Now javelins and stingers, then tanks and armored vehicles, then standoff missiles. Doesn’t make much sense.
Final notes, big serge understands as little as most of us why the hell kursk but, as many here have guessed by now, knows it was a catastrophic move.
As a second big serge sees the hazelnut more as a warning of unstoppable nukes than anything else, let’s agree that if that is enough, anything more would be bonus (though the range would point to a limited nuclear war just in europe…)
I’ll end with ending but suggest everyone read the full article (I mentioned more what was not explicitly said (or said at all) .
In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation – defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat – once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat – is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan – a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one – now says the quiet part out loud:
Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
Indeed.
None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position – that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly – somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.
Carthago delenda est
P.S. by Newbie : Concerning kagan’s estimate, as anything coming from him, I’d suggest you divide the numbers by no less than 2 to get a true estimate and consider the upper number with a children’s crusade included and being able to remove enough troops from the east in time
P.P.S. B had posted even earlier, kudos to B, seems like I was not the only one waiting eagerly, for some other posters, the kagan number is probably for running out of men, that’s why I mention the youngsters in the P.S..

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 83

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2025 20:51 utc | 40
Q:…why is the coverage of the outcome so restricted by Ukraine/NATO?
A: Pics or it didn’t happen.
QED. Nothing happened.
—-
And, even when “we” *do* have pics… like Dancing Israelis on 9/11, facts can be easily transmuted …. Israelis are now puff-voila, “pakistanis”.
__
Soon, the much ignored mighty Russian walnut, will be little more than a soggy peanut.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 10 2025 0:35 utc | 85

#40 Jeremy R..-Lang & #41 Paranaense…Hal Turner Radio Show published on 01/06/2025 close-up picture of place where ORESCHNIK it’s horrifying picture…you can still find out .
Posted by: sejmon | Jan 10 2025 0:13 utc | 82
Debunked weeks ago. Iirc, old pic of a salt mine.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 10 2025 1:10 utc | 87

@Mary | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 01:05:00 GMT | 86

One thing to note is that some Russian “losses” are due to ends of duty tours, not casualty. Iirc, the volunteers are something like 6 month deals which may or may not be renewed.

No, those aren’t counted as losses. Those are personnel changes, discharges. No military in the world counts discharges as losses.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:13 utc | 89

@90
Urggg! Autocorrect!!!
Hit not hot.

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 10 2025 1:17 utc | 91

@Newbie | Fri, 10 Jan 2025 00:13:00 GMT | 83

Basically RF lost half a million men (that RF can afford), and AFU lost 3 million (that ukraine can’t afford)

Still highly dubious numbers. I agree that Russia can afford its losses while Ukraine cannot, but I don’t think the ratios are anywhere close to 6 to 1. At 3 million losses that would be three times Ukraine’s current mobilized strength is gone. That means fifty percent of its total mobilized strength is irrevocable losses. No military in the history of the world has sustained that amount of loss and still been a viable fighting force.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:26 utc | 93

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2025 1:26 utc | 93 “but I don’t think the ratios are anywhere close to 6 to 1”
Wow, you are down from the 10-1 that has been parroted here for well, years.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:32 utc | 95

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 10 2025 1:28 utc | 94
oh god, another one that swallowed milleys 3day lie. keep it up nafo!

Posted by: J | Jan 10 2025 1:37 utc | 97

Man, that guy “Big Serge” writes too much and thinks too little. What a blowhard.
Regarding his very first point about territory gained, RFA only took a little over half a percent in 2024, and still controls only a little over 18%. Even in the headliner oblast of Donetsk, RFA only took 4.5% of it, moving from 62% to 66.5% over the year.
Somehow despite all this blablah of “muh attrition” and “muh desertion” and other copium/hopium, the UFA is STILL holding the RFA to a snail’s pace advance.
On top of that, the guy doesn’t make a clear prediction of what 2025 will look like at the end. Nor did he do so for 2024. That’s cowardly. Get to claim “I never said there would be a collapse” when it doesn’t happen. But publish these long meandering posts implying UFA is on last legs.
Call me in 2030 at this rate! Heck call me in 2050. I mean is RFA going to achieve its objectives before Putin dies? And I mean, not saying he is sick. Just if he lives another 10 or 20 years. Because that’s what it looks like for RFA to even capture the “4 oblasts”, let alone all the silly claims here of “to Galicia” or “to Lviv” or “to the river” or “getting Odessa” (which is STILL on the other side of the river, a very big fat river that has prevented RFA or UFA movement for over a year).

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 10 2025 1:45 utc | 99