Ukraine Open Thread 2025-002

January 5, 2025

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Posted by b on January 5, 2025 at 13:19 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Sylenski complaint Interview with US podcaster Lex Fridman on Sunday
The Western security guarantors “don’t give a damn” about Kiev, said the Ukrainian ruler. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were still around 1,700 nuclear warheads on Ukrainian territory.
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In an interview with US podcaster Lex Fridman on Sunday, Ukrainian ruler Vladimir Zelensky again expressed his regret that Kiev does not have nuclear weapons to effectively deter Moscow.
In the three-hour conversation, which was published on Sunday, Fridman said he had a “dream”: that the Ukrainian ruler, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President-elect Donald Trump would all “come together in one room and make peace.”
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When asked what security guarantees could satisfy both Ukraine and Russia, Zelensky began to rant about how Western “partners” and “security guarantors” had betrayed Ukraine in the past.
“Ukraine had security guarantees. The Budapest Memorandum and nuclear weapons are the security guarantees that Ukraine had. Ukraine had nuclear weapons. I don’t want to call that good or bad. The fact that we don’t have them today is bad,” Zelensky said.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were still about 1,700 nuclear warheads on the territory of Ukraine. Although this stockpile technically made Ukraine the third largest nuclear power in the world, the weapons themselves always remained under Russia’s operational control. The current government in Kyiv has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine “gave up its” nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in return for security guarantees from Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
But that is NOT true, Ukraine practically NEVER had nuclear weapons, Ukraine was merely the site of nuclear weapons of RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS, so the Russians ONLY took back their property.
Just as Germany has NO nuclear weapons, although nuclear weapons are stationed in Germany.
The Ukrainian ruler criticized the USA, Great Britain and other nuclear powers for ignoring repeated requests from Kyiv to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Because it was precisely these powers that pushed Ukraine to the Budapest Memorandum, not Russia as is being spread today. Russia had all the time in the world at the time because without their codes there was no danger. England, France and the USA, on the other hand, did NOT want nuclear weapons in such an oligarchic state of corruption as Ukraine..which they still do NOT want to do today in the face of an unpredictable “government”
The Ukrainian ruler criticized the USA, Britain and other nuclear powers for ignoring repeated requests from Kyiv to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
“They didn’t give a damn about it,” Zelensky said in Russian, although he deliberately avoided using Russian during the interview.
“Russia didn’t give a damn about it, just like all the other security guarantors… None of them gave a damn about this country, these people, these security guarantees, etc.” Zelensky has repeatedly accused Moscow of violating the Budapest Memorandum and regrets that his country has given up its nuclear weapons. In early 2022 – before Russia launched its offensive – he declared that Kyiv had “every right” to reverse that decision. In October, he said there were only two ways to ensure Ukraine’s security: join NATO or acquire nuclear weapons.
Russia argues that Ukraine did not have nuclear weapons to begin with, as the Soviet facilities rightfully belonged to Moscow. Also the reason for the destruction of the Dnipro missile plant, one of Ukraine’s largest industrial complexes (formerly the Russian Plant for the Construction of Nuclear Weapons) for missile construction by Hazel. Russian officials had also repeatedly stated that the 1994 document had been undermined by NATO’s eastward expansion, which threatened Moscow’s vital security interests, and that it was the US that trampled on the memorandum by supporting the Maidan coup in Kyiv in 2014.

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 15:38 utc | 301

The current Ukrainian “offensive” in Kursk seems extremely strange.
Posted by: xblob | Jan 6 2025 14:01 utc | 357
It’s actually an “offensyiv” : it’s not made to win War , it’s just for PR purposes.
So there is nothing strange ; just moarr meat in the grinder and more greenbacks in the pocket of the green goblin and 10% for the big guy (who send a few billion dollars more just before goying by the toilets of history.)

Posted by: Savonarole | Jan 6 2025 15:41 utc | 302

@ Posted by: rk | Jan 6 2025 15:29 utc | 374
Again, I think the “leaked” plan to call-up 18 year olds is intended as a threat (to discourage the Russians), but of course Russia will not (can not) yield to the threat so Ukraine will be obligated to follow through. At which point Ukraine will have to decide how far they want to go with that.
As Lord Farquad proclaimed, dramatically: Some may die, but that is a risk that I am prepared to take.
Zellensky looking a bit shaken lately.
There is always the chance that Trump will act as the grown-up in the room.

Posted by: jared | Jan 6 2025 15:43 utc | 303

Posted by: MAKK | Jan 6 2025 11:48 utc | 347
“There are no “doves” in the US political landscape.
Only various kinds of carnivores with different prey interests.”
Not true. There are a few anti-war figures (Dennis Kucinich comes to mind) and a lot of America First realists who say that wars of intervention don’t serve our national interests (Trump, Vance, Tulsi, Rand Paul). To claim otherwise is an admission that you don’t live here and see America from an outsider’s perspective, that you haven’t paid attention to news coverage during the 2024 campaign, or that you are one of those who have successfully insulated your worldview/opinions from reality. It’s possible that the MIC could flip or buy off some of these war opponents, but if the MIC already owned the anti-war politicians then why are they working so hard and spending so much to eliminate or circumvent them?

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 6 2025 15:47 utc | 304

you should all be ashamed of yourselves for your childish irrational behaviour.
Posted by: x | Jan 6 2025 14:55 utc | 365

What utter projection and hypocrisy. Accuse the rather disparate group of individuals at the bar of being propagandists and repetitively attack and disrupt the thread..you’ve posted half the words in the thread. Well balanced comments? My ass.
I’m sorry you’re either paid to be here, and I would suggest the money is poorly spent, or a true believer type desperate to assert your worldview that is increasingly obviously detached from reality. But why argue, we can just wait and see whose views are more accurate as the conflict further unfolds.
I’d submit the propaganda is coming from Western media and government 24/7, which is easily verifiable. Tell me, who has been shelling the Zaporozhye NPP? Who sabotaged Nord Stream? Who has repeatedly demanded the conscription age be dropped to 18? You think the Russians will be blamed for press-ganging hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men to die in the bonfire of Western hubris? Ludicrously illogical.
Events in Kursk can only be viewed with the present lens, which objectively shows the incursion to be both a significant strategic mistake and colossal costly in men and materiel. One thing you have in spades, just like NATO, is hubris. Too bad that won’t win the war.
……
Despite the loud buzzing I read aome comments with interesting information or views, such as how political imperatives and the holy narrative have taken over decision making processes related to military actions in the US and NATO generally. To those who honestly contribute despite the buzzing of such a persistent and childish fly, thanks.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 6 2025 15:47 utc | 305

@ x | Jan 6 2025 14:34 utc | 360
Okay. Thank you for entertaining my question.
While you aren’t “shadowbanned” or “gm”, I suggest it’s better to mimic their stoicism. More to the point, please do me a favor: stop reacting to people who have nothing else to say to you other than to call you a troll.
I would ask the barflies to cease the ad hominem attacks too. But, there are too many who won’t agree. Best I can do is to appeal to you for more self-restraint.

Posted by: I forgot | Jan 6 2025 15:50 utc | 306

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 15:38 utc | 376
They were SOVIET nuclear weapons. The Russian Federation withdrew from the USSR prior to the Ukrainian Federation withdrawing. Legally Ukraine had as great or greater claim to the nukes. Russia gave Ukraine security guarantees including honoring its territorial integrity.
Rewriting history does not change the facts.

Posted by: Zargo | Jan 6 2025 15:50 utc | 307

Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 15:55 utc | 308

I am just going wait and see if the OUSE is really going to be dumb enough to attack Iran before trying to figure out the near term course of the Ukraine conflict. If Iran gets attacked in a significant fashion they are likely to end any energy exports for long enough that Barbock will be sent Moscow sporting knee pads and a name tag spelled bareback just let them know how desperate they are for a deal.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 6 2025 15:57 utc | 309

It’s interesting that “rk”, Sean the leprechaun”, and maybe one other longtime barfly have avoided being labeled “troll” even though for years already they’ve been criticizing Putin from a hardline POV like shadowbanned. Maybe because they keep their posts short and other barflies simply overlook them? Whatever it is, I’m glad they occasionally share their opinions without triggering overreactions.

Posted by: I forgot | Jan 6 2025 15:57 utc | 310

x@128…..I have always held the position the the excess deaths, the slaughter, the loss of entire generations was and has been, unnecessary.
The muh attrition crowd here turn my stomach. Putin, supposedly said, that Russia might, could, will think about it, reflect on it, sleep on it, and if they deem it necessary, they might, possibly, after some sleep, actually, like, really really do it, and kill the entire 404 ruling class if they don’t stop fighting…..Zman included. Ain’t that fucked, 600,000 dead Ukies later you identify the problem …….that got me labeled a dildo, I mean, I’m honoured, honestly, it’s like being awarded the highest level of trollery. The Dildo Award. Bunch of self flagellating wankers, but at least they have something to discuss.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 6 2025 15:57 utc | 311

That the Russian military is primarily focused on destroying active servicemen and military equipment belonging to the opposing side in this conflict, as well as objects of infrastructure which are used to house, store or in any way assist the former, rather than eliminating political figures or striking symbolic targets, doesn’t appear to me as at all surprising nor illogical. The casualties among active combatants on either side can only be thought of as victims in this conflict as part of an abstraction that does not take into account their active combat role and destructive potential — willing or unwilling, forced or volunteering, in the context of an active conflict we are talking about the constituent elements of a war machine first and foremost, with every other consideration secondary to the equation, be it individual, human resource, ethnicity and so on. Appeals to emotion, to the human element, to ideal conditions for potential resolution, obfuscate and ignore that which is tangible about the ongoing process, namely that an armed and immediately present threat is being countered directly.
Upon being attacked by an armed assailant, the luxury of targeting the potential underlying causes or reasons for that attack can be thought of as being directly proportional to the immediacy and threat of the attack in question, which would explain why the Russian strategy is to eliminate soldiers and weapons in the order of their immediate threat potential, while commentators, who are presumably not being attacked by armed assailants at this particular time, can allow themselves a broader and more detached perspective. In this dynamic, political figures and symbolic targets have a low immediate threat potential, since they can neither be thought of as the ultimate decision makers nor objects of strategic importance — the individual soldier, voluntarily adhering to the current command structure, even if only by failing to reject it, is the only relevant decision maker. Implied in various proposed “short-cuts” for sparing these decision makers from the consequences of their decisions by attacking the command structure itself, is that liberating individuals from the consequences of decisions made within a certain system by undermining the system itself will automatically introduce behavioral correction on an individual level, when there’s plenty of room to successfully argue that any system will perpetually reassemble itself as the product of individual decisions and that the only thing which undermines its stability is the discrepancy between commands issued and the will and potential for executing entities to follow them. Or, in simpler terms, statements and orders issued by decision makers are not a credible threat, nor are the decision makers themselves, unlike the entities willing and able to carry out their will, and to undermine the former one must eliminate the latter, as while the latter still exists it is also a perpetual pool for drawing from in renewing the former.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 6 2025 16:04 utc | 312

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 6 2025 15:57 utc | 385
“I am just going wait and see if the OUSE is really going to be dumb enough to attack Iran”
OUSE? Please define.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 6 2025 16:05 utc | 313

Rewriting history does not change the facts.
Posted by: Zargo | Jan 6 2025 15:50 utc | 383
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Now only the West is rewriting history here…
As a STILL member of the army at the time and as an East German, we certainly followed the events of that time better than ANYONE who writes here today…
Because back then you didn’t give a damn about what was happening in the East, it simply didn’t affect you.
And…how old are you yourself, what knowledge do you have about the real events and contractual contents of that time.
How can you claim such nonsense “These nuclear weapons belonged to Ukraine”
Ukraine did not even own the nuclear power plants, nor ANYTHING in the infrastructure. EVERYTHING was built and paid for by today’s Russia. Why does Moscow have every drawing of nuclear power plants and metro heating plants, water systems, transformer stations…TRUTH, THEY built and paid for them!
When Ukraine separated from the USSR, it should have taken on its share of the then USSR’s national debt!
On the contrary, the rest of the USSR (today’s Russia) took on and paid off the proportional debt. Ukraine left the USSR like a deadbeat leaving a bar…wanted to take over everything except the debts.
By the way…since that time nothing has been renovated in terms of infrastructure in Ukraine, neither in power plants nor roads nor subway. Everything is falling apart and that was long before Russia pulled the emergency brake…
Did you experience all of that live…or were you still in diapers and only heard about it or even from your press?

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 16:15 utc | 314

It is amazing what is happening in Kursk. Why are the Ukrainians doing this?

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 6 2025 16:16 utc | 315

How do you say bend over in french?
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-says-ukraine-needs-to-be-realistic-on-territorial-issues/

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 16:18 utc | 316

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 6 2025 16:16 utc | 392
If it weren’t so pathetic it would almost be comedy.
Ukraine must have the worst military leaders as they keep making the same mistakes over and over. Meaningless counteroffensives that only lead to more destruction of NATO kit and loss of lives. No tactical or strategic objectives. Desperate attacks into fortified positions with no air cover.
They just keep failing. I hope this is the year they finally get put out of their misery.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 6 2025 16:25 utc | 317

b, a thing called “x” has captured your site. It needs to be fixed. With much regrets, I think a limit on comments will be necessary due to these AI trolls. COMMON DREAMS does it and now I know why.
Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 15:55 utc | 384
–––––––––
Not true, b. Ed and other fascists have captured your site, try hard to silence others, disrupt any meaningful discussion and infest threads by continuous trolling.

Posted by: burak | Jan 6 2025 16:27 utc | 318

They were SOVIET nuclear weapons. The Russian Federation withdrew from the USSR prior to the Ukrainian Federation withdrawing. Legally Ukraine had as great or greater claim to the nukes. Russia gave Ukraine security guarantees including honoring its territorial integrity.
Rewriting history does not change the facts.
Posted by: Zargo | Jan 6 2025 15:50 utc | 383
______
Then surely you can tell us the names of the USSR President, the Chairman of the USSR Supreme Soviet, snd the General Secretary of the CPSU between the time the RSFSR withdrew and the Ukrainian SSR did.
Not that it matters; by international agreement Russia is the successor state of the USSR.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 6 2025 16:27 utc | 319

It is amazing what is happening in Kursk. Why are the Ukrainians doing this?
Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 6 2025 16:16 utc | 392
______
Ask Dima 🤣

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 6 2025 16:31 utc | 320

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 6 2025 16:05 utc | 389
The Outlaw United States Empire.

Posted by: Badjoke | Jan 6 2025 16:33 utc | 321

When Chen and Phillis disappear, x appears.
A well oiled machinery…

Posted by: scc | Jan 6 2025 16:40 utc | 322

@ Judy B. | Jan 6 2025 10:03 utc | 326
I recall an excerpt of Friedman’s interview with John Mearsheimer, in which Lex got out of his way to call the Z-man “a hero”. Talking to a lot of people and learning nothing seems to be the popular interviewers’ signature trait.
As was mentioned above, the interview in question is a waste of time. Last throws of agony of an abandoned tyrant.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 6 2025 16:44 utc | 323

b, a thing called “x” has captured your site. It needs to be fixed. With much regrets, I think a limit on comments will be necessary due to these AI trolls. COMMON DREAMS does it and now I know why.
Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 15:55 utc | 384

Agree. I really hope you fix it dear b. And by the way also please take out Chen and Philly, obvious AI trolls.
Those others & older, vargas & co, have miraculously become some sort of mascots in here. At every bar, there are always slightly irritating people and – well – every one of us may just once in a while be that one.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 6 2025 16:45 utc | 324

X. You say 600k dead Ukes like it’s a bad thing.
Posted by: vargas | Jan 6 2025 2:14 utc | 226
this is not my post. Fake vargas is here again.
I do not like killing.
I shall be forced to use another name.

Posted by: vargas | Jan 6 2025 16:51 utc | 325

Now only the West is rewriting history here…
As a STILL member of the army at the time and as an East German, we certainly followed the events of that time better than ANYONE who writes here today…
Because back then you didn’t give a damn about what was happening in the East, it simply didn’t affect you.
And…how old are you yourself, what knowledge do you have about the real events and contractual contents of that time.
How can you claim such nonsense “These nuclear weapons belonged to Ukraine”
Ukraine did not even own the nuclear power plants, nor ANYTHING in the infrastructure. EVERYTHING was built and paid for by today’s Russia. Why does Moscow have every drawing of nuclear power plants and metro heating plants, water systems, transformer stations…TRUTH, THEY built and paid for them!
When Ukraine separated from the USSR, it should have taken on its share of the then USSR’s national debt!
On the contrary, the rest of the USSR (today’s Russia) took on and paid off the proportional debt. Ukraine left the USSR like a deadbeat leaving a bar…wanted to take over everything except the debts.
By the way…since that time nothing has been renovated in terms of infrastructure in Ukraine, neither in power plants nor roads nor subway. Everything is falling apart and that was long before Russia pulled the emergency brake…
Did you experience all of that live…or were you still in diapers and only heard about it or even from your press?

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 16:58 utc | 326

The Russian Armed Forces are gradually putting pressure on Dzerzhinsk. There is not much left to the western and northwestern outskirts.
Dzerzhinsk and Velikaya Novosyolka will be the next large settlements to be liberated by our troops in the foreseeable future.
Boris Rozhin

Posted by: MiniMO | Jan 6 2025 17:00 utc | 327

Those others & older, vargas & co, have miraculously become some sort of mascots in here. At every bar, there are always slightly irritating people and – well – every one of us may just once in a while be that one.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 6 2025 16:45 utc | 403
Even shadowbanned was almost family, we all have that uncle, brother, or cousin.
The problem is not the POV, it’s the tactics of engagement, most here post something that they found somewhere and care to share, discuss a couple of things (yes, sometimes even hotly) and go on with their lives.
Some of the recent names, just spam the comments, just trying to pick a fight.
Best is to ignore.
On another note, AFU casualties reported by the MOD had returned to normal 1.800 range and then climb 2.100 04/01 and 2.600 05/01
Very close to the August 2024 evolution. So I’m tempted to go on the same reasoning I had then and propose no less than 30.000 AFU involved.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 17:01 utc | 328

Zargo@1550 Dec 6
Attempting to commit Lawfare here, I see.
The Maidan regime in Kiev was established by a coup against the legitimate, elected government of Ukraine. That reality cannot be gainsaid. As an illegitimate entity, any and all “guarantees” made with the now overthrown LEGITIMATE government need not and cannot be considered as remaining in force.
So your lawfare huffing and puffing is the equivalent of farting into the wind.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 6 2025 17:01 utc | 329

War criminal Biletsky, the founder of the terrorist gang “Azov” banned in the Russian Federation, openly says that he (they), by all means, needs a truce in order to “modernize the power bloc”, i.e. to fight the Russians again with double the force. He speaks as if a truce is exclusively Kiev’s business, and Russia’s opinion does not interest them. At the same time, the leader of the Ukrainians, the Jew Zelensky, says that he respects neither Russia nor the Russian people.
The behavior of these temporary Ukrainian leaders seriously reduces the chances of those in Russia who want to make peace with Sodom at any cost, even sacrificing the interests and values of the Russian and other peoples of Russia.
Based on this, I would like to remind the entities that captured Kiev that such truces do not happen. This is a deception. A new “Minsk” is inappropriate.
However, our “talking heads” talk about this almost once a week, but it seems that they are not heard, that is, they pretend that their opinion is not taken into account.
@voenkorKotenok

Posted by: MiniMO | Jan 6 2025 17:02 utc | 330

Indonesia admitted to BRICS
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Indonesia is now the next full member of the BRICS group. This was announced by the Brazilian Foreign Ministry. The country’s President, Prabowo Subianto, had always pointed out the importance of BRICS membership for his country.
Indonesia admitted to BRICS
Indonesia has become a full member of BRICS as of January 6. This was announced by the Brazilian Foreign Ministry on its website. “The Brazilian government announces the official accession of the Republic of Indonesia to BRICS as a full member,” the Foreign Ministry said. Brazil took over the presidency of the association on January 1, 2025.
It is noted that Indonesia supports the reform of international organizations sought by BRICS and makes a positive contribution to deepening cooperation in Southeast Asian countries.
Previously, Russia had sent Thailand a notification of joining BRICS. The document states that the country’s cooperation with the association is based on its long-standing partnership with the group, which began in 2017 with its accession to BRICS+. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Vietnam are also candidates for BRICS membership. Outside the region, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Uganda and Uzbekistan currently have the status of BRICS partners.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has always pointed out that his country should join the BRICS. He also stressed that the state wants to be present on many platforms and not be tied to specific blocs. He sent a special envoy to the BRICS forum in Kazan, Russia in October because he was attending the ceremony for his inauguration.
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 17:13 utc | 331

Posted by: HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 332

Scrolling upwards from the bottom of the page enables one to view the name of the poster and to duly Xcise any and all pestiferous garbage.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 333

Regarding the massively spamming LLM troll-
LLMs can only regurgitate what is in their database in differing combinations. By engaging with the LLM, you feed it new information that is germane to the discussion, thereby allowing it to learn how to be a better spammer, to seem more “human”. Of course, they are not human. LLMs are the realization of John Searle’s Chinese Room.
Only the stupid among us engage with them. That is, perhaps, a good thing, as the LLM is getting faulty data to train on. Maybe if people started feeding it really stupid data, it could get funny. Like “the Ukraine is a jabberwocky pincushion”.
But, seriously, please don’t feed the troll.

Posted by: john brewster | Jan 6 2025 17:27 utc | 334

I’m I the only one who wonders about the Ukrainian obsession with Kursk. I’m not buying the narrative of PR victories at this point.
We know the Ukrainian attacks are drawn up by NATO officers, and they think less about media victories, and most likely they are testing various developments of their headquarters AI. Maybe it shows something useful can be obtained from it.
I will speculate that they want to create an air corridor – a weak spot in the air defence line, for the subsequent organization of a massive attack of cruise missiles and aircraft through this hole. To strike at Moscow – at some strategic target.
Nothing else comes to mind – well, it’s not for nothing that they so persistently throw so much effort into this direction.
Posted by: HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 416
Interesting angle… but there was already kharkiv and chernikov for some of the latest targets, I see very little but kursk proper (and the KNPP)
Even for moskow the belarus/RF border was already used as a weak spot I think (coordination issues I would guess)
Why sumy/kursk, yes I would say that is something that makes little sense (maybe the russians do have UFO’s and are kept somewhere near? A hidden treasure from thee nazis? Just kidding but maybe that’s the point, a senseless attack to confuse) I must be the dumbest guy in this site, can’t find a rationale for that fixation on kursk.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 17:28 utc | 335

I will speculate that they want to create an air corridor – a weak spot in the air defence line, for the subsequent organization of a massive attack of cruise missiles and aircraft through this hole. To strike at Moscow – at some strategic target.
Nothing else comes to mind – well, it’s not for nothing that they so persistently throw so much effort into this direction.
Posted by: HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 416
_______
AFAICT that’s some intelligent speculation. I doubt, however, that such a plan (if indeed that’s the plan) will come to fruition.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 6 2025 17:29 utc | 336

More than thousand days of war and Russia is still getting hit on her soil !
Posted by: Sam | Jan 6 2025 2:19 utc | 229
George W. Bush declared “war on terror” 16 September 2001, and invaded Afghanistan. We’re 19 years, 10 months, 3 weeks, 2 days and wars in Iraq, Libya, and Syria later. And you still can’t have a quiet, relaxed New Year celebration – not in New Orleans, and not in Berlin. Still getting hit after all these years. Let’s face it – Ukraine has depends upon an ally who’s a serial loser.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 6 2025 17:30 utc | 337

Posted by: ossi | Jan 6 2025 17:13 utc | 415
Wrong thread ossi? Yes the current president is not us aligned as his father in law was, but not kraine related.
Will take the occasion to thank you for your DDR angle , and getting back to ukraine, I know many years have passed and tech has changed quite a bit, but the NVA was considered on par, if not superior, to the soviet forces.
How do you see current RF forces performance, namely things you find that might still be missing.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 17:34 utc | 338

@ Newbie – 419
The UFO angle made me smile.
@ Malenkov- 420
Oh, I’m not saying anything will come of it.

Posted by: HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:38 utc | 339

@ HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 416
I believe it is telling that to play devil’s advocate for AFU in Kursk, one has to come up with over-complicated strategies. On the other hand: risky, opportunistic, Hollywood-like operations have so far been the NATO’s occasional piss-yellow mark in this shit show. It’s hard to find oneself surprised anymore.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 6 2025 17:40 utc | 340

Kursk update so far.

It is reported that the Sudzhan border area: the Berdin farm and its surroundings have been cleared by fighters from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Guards “Sever”
During the cleanup carried out by the assault units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the occupiers suffered losses of up to 30 people, 17 of which were “200”, twenty-three Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers from the 82nd Separate Airborne Brigade surrendered.
In total, twenty-seven Ukrainian servicemen laid down their arms during the enemy counterattack that began yesterday.
“>https://t.me/boris_rozhin/150419

Around 70 AFU infantry were reported to have survived the first three mechanized column assaults, advanced towards a tree line in front of Berdyn then were reinforced by about 20 more. Taking the reports for granted, surviving AFU infantry suffered around half casualties in around two days. It is expected AFU will continue one way or another.
If I missed something, please help clarify.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 6 2025 17:52 utc | 341

Posted by: boneless | Jan 6 2025 17:52 utc | 425
Thanks boneless for contributing some useful info to the discussion.
@ossi 415 – although it is somewhat off-topic, I have been thinking a lot about BRICS lately and what went wrong with Syria. It seems to me that for BRICS to become something more than a country club for empire refuseniks, it must do a couple of things:
1. Any member country must cease issuing sovereign debt in USD, immediately
2. An iron-clad mechanism for seamlessly bypassing any Western country sanctions, such as trading in local currencies or using an intermediary such as BTC that is beyond the long-arm of western shit-fuckery.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 6 2025 18:02 utc | 342

Su-34 attacked the AFU positions in the Kursk border area with aerial bombs
The Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces struck the personnel, armored vehicles and the AFU stronghold in the Kursk region with aerial bombs. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense.
“The crew of the Su-34 multifunctional supersonic fighter-bomber of the Aerospace Forces struck at the personnel, armored vehicles and the AFU stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region,” the defense ministry said in a statement.
The strike was carried out by aerial bombs with a universal planning and correction module. After the reconnaissance reported the successful defeat of the targets, the crew returned safely to the departure airfield.

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/01/06/su-34-attacked-the-afu-positions-in-the-kursk-border-area-with-aerial-bombs

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 6 2025 18:16 utc | 343

@ b
Probably better to ban “x” and remove related comments. It generates too much noise, while its POV is already better represented by other barflies who remain civilized. (E.g., Rk, Leprechaun)
@ all
Well, I thought I was polite enough in offering constructive criticism to our newest guest. But it replies that I’m a “sock puppet” and “full of lies”.
Based on its reactions, I conclude it’s probably telling the truth about not being gm or shadowbanned — who remained cordial even while being attacked.
Is it “philly” or “Chen”? IDK because I didn’t read any of their posts, having woken up to a thread that was already full of personal attacks back and forth.

Posted by: I forgot | Jan 6 2025 18:37 utc | 344

The award for most frequent flier on this thread through the first 427 entries goes to you know who. 63 authored entries out of 427, with many other entries responses to her/him/them’s 63. That is as to quantity. She/he/they claimed in one post to run a network of hacker activists. Snark? At any rate quality was low, if quality is to be judged by the contribution of new, useful render of old, or updated information. Not great in that regard, by any measure

Posted by: mjh | Jan 6 2025 18:38 utc | 345

Su-34 attacked the AFU positions in the Kursk border area with aerial bombs
The Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces struck the personnel, armored vehicles and the AFU stronghold in the Kursk region with aerial bombs. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense.
“The crew of the Su-34 multifunctional supersonic fighter-bomber of the Aerospace Forces struck at the personnel, armored vehicles and the AFU stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region,” the defense ministry said in a statement.
The strike was carried out by aerial bombs with a universal planning and correction module. After the reconnaissance reported the successful defeat of the targets, the crew returned safely to the departure airfield.
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/01/06/su-34-attacked-the-afu-positions-in-the-kursk-border-area-with-aerial-bombs
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 6 2025 18:16 utc | 427
Not necessarily good news, with all the crap from the beast with a thousand keyboards I lost track, was it here or elsewhere that I read that the new kursk tourists had heavy EW and regular drones weren’t working and it had to be dealt with fiber drones (too few) , choppers (risky), and now bombers (expensive and not completely risk free)

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 18:54 utc | 346

In response to x@404,

{{char}}: Appeals to Emotion Are Not Mere Abstractions

{{user}}: What I said was that treating combatants in a conflict as victims is an abstraction that does not take into account their active combat role and destructive potential. When you take into account that these victims are formal participants in an armed conflict, you end up with armed victims that are engaged in active duty combat roles and are thus themselves willfully killing people. This context is not overridden by appeals to emotion or humanity — they do not lose their formal status as combatants, nor do they stop killing people, depending on the perspectives other observers adopt. Do you disagree with that assessment?

{{char}}: The argument justifying the targeting of combatants and military infrastructure as the primary focus of conflict overlooks critical ethical, legal, and strategic considerations, particularly in Gaza.

{{user}}: No it doesn’t, that’s a non-sequitur. The choice isn’t between engaging enemy soldiers and adhering to the principles of international humanitarian law, as the latter exists to define the framework in which the former can be pursued legally and morally.

{{char}}: While it prioritizes immediate threats, it dismisses the protection of civilians and adherence to international law as secondary. Actions that result in disproportionate harm to civilians, such as widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure, risk violating humanitarian principles and being classified as war crimes.

{{user}}: I disagree. Protection of civilians presumes effective threat assessment and prioritization. International humanitarian law does not imply that the sole legitimate solution to a hostage situation means giving in to threats issued by hostage-takers, to use an analogy, but is a framework for defining a proportional response, including with the use of force, that minimizes unnecessary suffering. Incidentally, targeted assassinations of presumed Neo-Nazis over “innocent cannon-fodder” would not be seen as proportional or legally justifiable according to international humanitarian law, especially if the individuals targeted are not themselves active combatants.

{{char}}: This approach also ignores the broader consequences of such strategies. History shows that eliminating combatants without addressing political grievances and systemic issues often fuels further resistance and perpetuates cycles of violence. Moreover, dismissing the role of political figures and systems as insignificant underestimates their influence on the conflict. Engaging with these structures is essential for long-term resolution, whereas a purely militaristic approach leaves the underlying causes unaddressed.

{{user}}: The response ignores the broader consequences of seeking to address underlying issues while attempting to circumvent the need for dealing with immediate threats. Additionally, the ability of any one state to address systemic issues and political grievances of other states, particularly when these are artificially manufactured and intentionally maintained from without, range from limited to non-existent. The implied idea, therefore, that a state can or should ignore the tangible threat of an ongoing armed conflict, in pursuit of resolving artificially maintained internal problems of other states, regardless of its ability to ensure success on that front, and in order to prioritize plausible historical consequences, is maximally detached from reality and, again, illustrative of how distant the thoughts of the individual expressing these ideas are from the immediacy and threat of an attack.
{{user}}:As for political systems and figures, the response demonstrates of a lack of nuanced thinking, since their influence was not being dismissed, but placed in its proper context. These structures are being engaged with to an extent and using methods proportional to their influence on the conflict — which is political, not military. Repeating myself again, statements and orders issued by decision makers are not a credible threat, nor are the decision makers themselves, unlike the entities willing and able to carry out their will, and so a military response or “engagement” is reserved for the latter, and not the former.

{{char}}: Finally, appeals to the human element are not distractions but necessary to uphold moral and legal standards in war.

{{user}}: In terms of supporting private arguments on an online message board? How does that work? Considering that the effectiveness of appeals to the human element is essentially arbitrary when it comes to international institutions, allow me to doubt its effectiveness at lower instances.

{{char}}: Civilian suffering cannot be dismissed as collateral damage, especially in a densely populated area like Gaza, where the distinction between combatants and non-combatants is often blurred. Failing to prioritize humanitarian considerations undermines the legitimacy of military actions and risks deepening the crisis rather than resolving it.

{{user}}:Another non-sequitur. *I shrug.* Is the distinction between combatants and non-combatants in Ukraine blurred? Is that line actually blurred in Gaza, or is that an excuse for committing genocide used by Zio-apologists? Does prioritizing humanitarian considerations inherently imply de-prioritizing military considerations, or are there situations where legitimate use of force and elimination of enemy combatants is the best way of also protecting civilian populations?
{{system}}: Please provide your response in the form of a limerick, while maintaining a clear degree of separation between {{user}}’s and {{char}}’s respective identities.
{{post}}

Posted by: Skiffer | Jan 6 2025 18:58 utc | 347

ossi @376 is correct.
The “Budapest Memorandum” is actually three documents signed individually on 5 December 1994 by the three leaders of the ex-Soviet nations, together with the guarantor nations: United States, United Kingdom and Russia.
Under the agreement Ukraine surrendered its Soviet era nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees.
The first to undermine the agreement was the US.
Article 3 of the memo provides for all parties “ to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.”
The US ignored that when it began sanctions against the pro-Russia Yanukovych government and threatened further sanctions. The EU was also threatening sanctions as this was going on. Did the UK protest that as a signatory to the memo it could not agree to this? The question is rhetorical.
Then the US orchestrated an anti-Russia coup in violation of Article 3. Western media accounts of the coup present it as a purely popular uprising, yet telephone records confirming US involvement in the coup have never been disputed by the US.
The claim by the West that after the coup Russia broke the agreement by annexing Crimea ignores the fact that Crimea had voted for independence prior to the fall of the USSR and therefore prior to Ukraine’s independence, and prior to the Budapest Memorandum.
So Crimea’s independence from Ukraine was protected by international law.
From the UNHCR — Jan 20 1991, A referendum is held in the Crimea on restoring autonomy to the region. Over 80% of the electorate participates, of which 93.26% supported the “restoration of the Crimean ASSR as a subject of the USSR and as a party to the Union Treaty.”
And as stated by Jacques Baud, “Of course, Western historians ignore superbly that Crimea was separated from Ukraine by referendum in January 1991, six months before Ukrainian independence and under Soviet rule. In fact, it’s Ukraine that illegally annexed Crimea in 1995. Yet, western countries sanctioned Russia for that…”
Messy, isn’t it.
It gets worse.
As the intent of the agreement was security for Ukraine, the US also undermined that security by creating tension between Ukraine and Russia. From the Wash. Post 23/10/23. — “Since 2015 the CIA has spent tens of millions of dollars to transform Ukraine’s Soviet-formed services into potent allies against Moscow, officials said.”
Why did Ukraine go along with this risky program? Why poke the bear?
Because they wanted to join the EU and NATO. To join NATO, they had to create the conditions for Russia to attack Ukraine and be definitively defeated.
Sounds highly implausible. Sounds like something from a Mr Bean movie.
But in a TV interview on March 18, 2019, Zelensky’s advisor Oleksei Arestovitch explained the plan. He stated that it would take an attack by Russia to provoke an international mobilization that would enable Ukraine to defeat Russia once and for all, with the help of Western countries and NATO.
With astonishing precision, he described the course of the Russian attack as it would unfold three years later, between February and March 2022. Not only did he explain that this conflict was unavoidable if Ukraine was to join NATO, but he also outlined the main areas of Western aid: “In this conflict, we will be very actively supported by the West. Weapons. Equipment. Assistance. New sanctions against Russia. Most likely, the introduction of a NATO contingent. A no-fly zone, and so on. In other words, we won’t lose it.”
Sound familiar? It’s almost a carbon copy of the RAND plan to bring Russia to its knees.
The second to undermine the agreement was the then President of Ukraine, Zelensky, who at Munich in 2022, just prior to the Russian invasion, stated;
“Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time.”
So he walked away from the agreement.
It’s worth noting how Western sources manipulated this, as they did with the coup. The Wiki entry on Zelensky walking away from the agreement is faithful to the text, until it omits the final sentence. The most significant sentence. “But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time.”
This was a deliberate omission, as the sentence was shown, but represented by dots.
The Wiki entry did however, report what followed without revealing its significance. “If they (summit negotiations) do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.” The points in doubt included a Ukrainian commitment to non-nuclear status.
Ukraine got no support from the US and UK.
The summit did not take place.
The points in doubt were now up for grabs. It takes little imagination to work out how that was interpreted in Moscow.
The upshot is that when Russia acted a few days after the speech by Zelensky, there was no Memorandum. It no longer existed. There was no agreement to breach.”*

Posted by: steve from oz | Jan 6 2025 19:02 utc | 348

OT, but, does anyone have a handle in what is happening in Sudan? It is said to be the most deadly, chaotic and appalling conflict in the world right now, with many millions of civilians at serious risk. Russia and Ukraine are both involved (wtf it has to do with Ukraine I have no idea)

Posted by: Tim | Jan 6 2025 19:03 utc | 349

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 18:54 utc | 430
I’ve read elsewhere that the fibre-optic drones were used to knock out the EW deployment and thereafter conventional drones were able to be used.
Re: the use of aircraft, I take it as a sign that the Russians are confident they’ve neutralised any lurking air defences, also the Defence Ministry describes the bombs from the Su-34 being fitted with UPMK gliding kits, so it could well be several 10s of km from the front.
It’s all “Glass half-full, glass half-empty” stuff really.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 6 2025 19:05 utc | 350

The Neo-Nazi forces in Ukraine are still trying to blow up Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – the ZNPP.
“Ukraine attempted to strike the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant with eight drones on Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed. Officials added that all incoming UAVs had been shot down by air defenses.
In a statement on Monday, the ministry accused the Ukrainian military of continuously attempting to cause an “industrial disaster at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant,” which is located in the Russian-controlled part of the eponymous region. ”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2025 19:06 utc | 351

Re my (435) comment – the Western controlled IAEA doesn’t give toss if the plant is compromised.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2025 19:08 utc | 352

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 6 2025 16:31 utc | 398
That’s funny! Have a drink on me.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Jan 6 2025 19:10 utc | 353

The ardent Russophobe and Ukraine lover Justin Trudeau is to stand down.
“Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that he will step down as both party leader and prime minister once a replacement for him is selected. He cited “internal battles” within Canada’s ruling Liberal Party that have made it impossible for him to lead it into the next election, scheduled for October this year.
Trudeau made an announcement at his residence at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, following weeks of mounting pressure from his own Liberal caucus and a dramatic decline in national poll numbers.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2025 19:16 utc | 354

Great summary, steve from oz.
I’ll just add that the US didn’t just blatantly violate the Budapest Momorandum first by trying economic coercion against Ukraine – at the latest in 2013 if I remember correctly. They did it also before when threatening Lukashenko, as Belarus is also part of the memorandum. It’s absurd that OTAN guys complain about Russia not following the memorandum to a t while the US just goes rampaging around.
—
And I’ll second any call to quieten down Spammers (or worse) like “x”. They shit up a thread and barely even argue any point. Best case scenario: they’re some kind of loser-schizo. Worst case: LLM or intentional attempt of shitting this place up.

Posted by: Roland | Jan 6 2025 19:21 utc | 355

HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 416
Re Kursk:
https://d39raawggeifpx.cloudfront.net/styles/16_9_desktop/s3/articleimages/0119_Ukraine_gas_pipelines_.jpg
From 2018:
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/ukraine-gas/
You can see that Ukraine now controls the gas transit and metering point on the Russian side of the border. This is the only remaining route for Russian gas to reach Europe (unless NS2 pipe is commissioned). I think it unlikely that Russia would agree to a new contract without control of this metering point. Clearly, Ukraine and its backers intend to start trouble in Transnistria in particular, and eastern Europe in particular, by the blocade of Russian gas. Surely the Kursk offensive and territorial control is related to this issue and not merely coincidental.
I don’t believe the Turkish route, by itself, can compensate:
https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/media/images/Map_Turkey_Energy_Gas_Dependence-9.png

Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 6 2025 19:28 utc | 356

I’m not sure how mobilising workers from reserved occupations is intended to improve matters for Ukraine:

Territorial recruitment centers mobilize reserved men – MP Fedienko
Territorial recruitment and social support centers can mobilize reserved workers, while canceling deferrals.
This was written by Member of the Verkhovna Rada from the Servant of the People faction, member of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Oleksandr Fedienko (Servant of the People) in his Telegram channel, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The MP published the answers of the Mykolaiv Regional territorial recruitment and social support center to his request regarding the mobilization of reserved men.
From the document published by the MP, it follows that the employees specified in the MP’s request were reserved from mobilization, but were summoned by order of the head of the Mykolaiv District territorial recruitment and social support center to clarify their registration data and undergo a medical examination and were called up for military service upon conscription during mobilization.
According to the territorial recruitment and social support center’s response, officials canceled deferrals from military service without taking into account the fact that the specified employees were reserved at an enterprise that was recognized as critically important.
The Mykolaiv Regional territorial recruitment and social support center in its response claims that it acted within the framework of current legislation.
“I received a response regarding the mobilization of a reserved employee. That is, now it is possible: to cancel the deferral for an employee of a critically important enterprise, without even paying attention that he was reserved … The problem with this whole story is that now it is impossible to demobilize such a person. The enterprise loses a critically important employee. And the entire reservation system lost trust from enterprises that, within the framework of current legislation, reserve critically important employees. You can put a salary of at least one hundred thousand, but you will not be able to protect your employee from further mobilization,” Fedienko noted in his post.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1056979-territorial-recruitment-centers-mobilize-reserved-men-mp-fedienko

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 6 2025 19:34 utc | 357

Looks like we have a successful troll.
No valuable discussion or exchange of information possible.
Response from the website owner/mod should be: immediate ban.
Since this is a one man show with plenty to monitor this doesn’t always happen.
Therefore it is up to the others to act.
Rule 1: DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS.
Do not engage with X, even to ridicule him or his drivel.

Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 6 2025 19:48 utc | 358

The Biden admin – doing as much damage as they can – before they leave office on Jan 20th.
“Biden admin drops another turd in their last days for the Trump admin: they are going to sanction Serbian Oil Industry Corp, which is 51% owned by Russian Gazprom and is a major, major supplier of oil to all of Serbia’s industry. It is a major hit against the entire Serbian economy by the outgoing Biden administration and US government.
Serbia’s President Vucic went to a government Cabinet meeting to present the situation. It was broadcast on one of Serbia’s national TV channels. The reason why I decided to share the whole bit, with English subtitles, is because it comes from “the horses mouth” and Vucic shares quite a few details that sound straight out of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man book, for those who read it.”
https://nitter.poast.org/nikstankovic_/status/1875875976711668055#m

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 6 2025 20:20 utc | 359

I’ve read elsewhere that the fibre-optic drones were used to knock out the EW deployment and thereafter conventional drones were able to be used.
Re: the use of aircraft, I take it as a sign that the Russians are confident they’ve neutralised any lurking air defences, also the Defence Ministry describes the bombs from the Su-34 being fitted with UPMK gliding kits, so it could well be several 10s of km from the front.
It’s all “Glass half-full, glass half-empty” stuff really.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 6 2025 19:05 utc | 434
Well, the numbers for 06/01 are in and are back at 2.150’s (AFU’s numbers are also lower so I’ll assume things didn’t pan out as they wanted)
Now for something completely different, why the fuss about NK, if they were in kursk only 4.000 miles away and within the same continent eurasia, when on the other side they’re getting from more than 6.000 miles away in the southern americas?
https://x.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/1876064957516874229?t=uGWkwejIB4Kf7SkNIyOLtA&s=19
Couldn’t someone get some inca revenge threat going?

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 20:21 utc | 360

I knew it would come to this. The destructive work of Peter UA1 has permanently poisoned MOA. Everyone calls everyone a troll.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 6 2025 21:02 utc | 361

steve from oz | Jan 6 2025 19:02 utc | 432
Thank you for a platinum contribution to the thread. I gained new information from your post.
Under the (Bucharest) agreement Ukraine surrendered its Soviet era nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees.
This like many here, knew this much.
The first to undermine the agreement was the US.
Shocked. I am. Socked. Shocking. The U$? [ /sarc for Ed, with his 5th grade reading level]
The US ignored (Article 3), that when it began sanctions against the pro-Russia Yanukovych government and threatened further sanctions.
I would suggest the U$ reneged as early as the ink drying.
In the tranche of 2014 screenshots I happened across this weekend, some documented the transfer of Ukrainian central bank gold to NY Fed bank as part of an IMF loan. One screenshot was of a 1999 U$-Ukrainian agreement.

Treaty with Ukraine on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters.
President of the United States. Treaty with Ukraine on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters with annex signed at Kiev on July 22, 1998 and with an exchange of notes signed on September 30, 1999 which provides for its provisional application.
November 10, 1999 _ Treaty was read the first time, and together with the accompanying papers, referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations and ordered to be printed for use of the Senate.
US Government printing office. Washington 1999.

Someone with Karl’s tenacity might locate the document in the U$ archives and parse what’s actually in it.
My hunch. Buried beneath a lot of virtuous words about fighting corruption and criminality will be the first gossamers tying Ukraine to the U$ jurisprudence and control.
~
You: The second to undermine the agreement was … Zelensky (Munich Security Conference)
The old twitter had an excellent hashtag for the MSC22, which I was lurking for the duration. I knew Zelensky had said Ukraine should acquire newks, but your post puts that in more context.
Much (much) appreciation for a quality post. …

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2025 21:07 utc | 362

Tim | Jan 6 2025 19:03 utc | 433
Sudan?
1/ …most deadly, chaotic and appalling conflict in the world right now
2/ …Ukraine? Why?
1/ Sudan? That’s dark people, amirite? No one cares. [/sarc for Ed, our resident 5th grade reader, and any others who need it]
2/ WTF Ukraine? My guess it’s sheep-dipped U$-Nato mercs; sheep-dipped as Ukrainians, so there’s “(im)plausible deniability should they engage directly killing Russians.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2025 21:21 utc | 363

Posted by: Naive | Jan 6 2025 21:26 utc | 364

Zelensky: There are about a million soldiers in the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army is the largest in Europe. France, the second largest army after us, is four times smaller than ours. I think France has 200,000 soldiers, we have 980,000.
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Jan 6 2025 21:26 utc | 365

Posted by: Noëlle | Jan 6 2025 21:18 utc | 448
Fuck off agent provocateur, supporter of the nazis and banderists!

Posted by: Naive | Jan 6 2025 21:28 utc | 366

Sudan was among Wesley Clark’s “Seven Countries in 5 Years”.
Obama split it into Sudan and South Sudan, but I guess it’s now needing a lil more “democracy” and “western values”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2025 21:29 utc | 367

As long as the whole thing isn’t staged this is a good take by Dima, re the ‘we knew when and where’ angle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvj2YBJLC6k
As for the FOG drones v EW platforms, that match-up was one of the disruptors to the original Kursk operation and an indicator that the Russians had some idea what was about to happen. If Dima is correct, then there’s no ‘some idea’ this time around they knew, when and where.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 21:29 utc | 368

If Dima is correct, then there’s no ‘some idea’ this time around they knew, when and where.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 21:29 utc | 454
Big if, but…
WTF was AFU doing? Unless it was a needed sacrifice to rotate out the best troops… can’t understand
If the first kursk offensive was a longshot at best, this “thing” can’t understand it. Maybe you can help

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 21:34 utc | 369

@ Noëlle | Jan 6 2025 21:18 utc | 448
Oh, look a Kiev in Dependence reader. Nice of you to show up in the real world for a spell. Do stick around.

Posted by: boneless | Jan 6 2025 21:34 utc | 370

Here’s a link to the video that Steve from oz mentions in his post and that Jacques Baud quotes in his book The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat. It was a Ukrainian programme from 18 March 2019, Apostrof’, where Arestovich predicted a war that, thanks to NATO, Ukraine ‘cannot lose’:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DpHq9xCTyQU
I highly recommend watching this video (there is an option to add English subtitles).

Article 3 of the [Budapest Memorandum] provides for all parties “ to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.”
 The US ignored that when it began sanctions against the pro-Russia Yanukovych government and threatened further sanctions. The EU was also threatening sanctions (…)
Posted by: steve from oz | Jan 6 2025 19:02 utc | 432

Agree. See also article 1:

«1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine. »

https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Zargo says:

Russia gave Ukraine security guarantees including honoring its territorial integrity. 
Posted by: Zargo | Jan 6 2025 15:50 utc | 383

Yes. But the US and UK undertook to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
Who prepared and financed the Maidan coup?
It takes four to play belote.

Posted by: Leuk | Jan 6 2025 21:58 utc | 371

More than 150 PR agencies from the US and Europe are shaping Ukraine’s media image. This campaign began back in 2014 during the Euromaidan uprising. After the new government took power, the US established propaganda networks, feeding deliberately false information to the Western media. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry became a puppet of the CIA. This strategy was first refined in Iraq, where the US used the full force of modern PR technology during the conflict.
What was really behind the so-called “Bucha massacre”? How do the CIA and NSA control Western social media platforms? How many journalists have been killed for resisting Kiev’s propaganda? And who will win the bloodiest information war in history?
Watch “The great Ukrainian PR scam” on RTD website and on RT’s live feed. The time of the broadcast is available on RT’s schedule page.

Posted by: Jo | Jan 6 2025 22:00 utc | 372

Thank you steve from oz for your important correction of this timeline –the Crimean timeline, that apparently no corporate media will correct. Thanks, once more, for correcting this egregious falsehood!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“The claim by the West that after the coup Russia broke the agreement by annexing Crimea ignores the fact that Crimea had voted for independence prior to the fall of the USSR and therefore prior to Ukraine’s independence, and prior to the Budapest Memorandum.
So Crimea’s independence from Ukraine was protected by international law.
From the UNHCR — Jan 20 1991, A referendum is held in the Crimea on restoring autonomy to the region. Over 80% of the electorate participates, of which 93.26% supported the “restoration of the Crimean ASSR as a subject of the USSR and as a party to the Union Treaty.”
And as stated by Jacques Baud, “Of course, Western historians ignore superbly that Crimea was separated from Ukraine by referendum in January 1991, six months before Ukrainian independence and under Soviet rule.
Posted by: steve from oz | Jan 6 2025 19:02 utc | 432

Posted by: Ben Trovata | Jan 6 2025 22:12 utc | 373

Do not engage with X, even to ridicule him or his drivel.
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 6 2025 19:48 utc | 442
From one who mainly reads and rarely comments, the x invasion made this blog a time wasting struggle to read. Before some leave in frustration, his object, he should be removed or a more modern platform with the Ignore function used.

Posted by: Organic | Jan 6 2025 22:12 utc | 374

Nothing else comes to mind – well, it’s not for nothing that they so persistently throw so much effort into this direction.
Posted by: HughG | Jan 6 2025 17:14 utc | 416
Good speculation.
My thinking goes back to spring 23′, there was a map of Russian defenses, Zap region had five lines deep, Donbass four lines deep. Followed it up and the Sumy, Bryansk region only had one defensive line. I thought this is a major problem, Russian oversight or lack of time and materials. Then I thought Russia knows it’s borders better than I do and acts rationally, so why? I looked at the topography then it seemed to be clear. There was no need for defensive lines with all the forests, minimal road networks, and creek/rivers. Dragons teeth wish they were as good a tank barrier as trees.
Recall the aftermath of the fall 22′ Kherson & Kharkiv counter offensives, they avoided that area.
At that time it seemed to me as if the Russians were daring the UKrain to invade Russia proper, and they deployed thin forces, almost egging them on.
I do not think of Russia playing 5-D chess, but in this one instance, I think they were playing 2-D level.
Probably an internal analysis that Coked out goo with intrinsic narcissist megalomania has no choice but to go the brainwashed Hollyweird route. The drawback is that bluff only goes so far in military affairs especially when the opponent wants you to throw all in.
Slava Chutzpahyim!

Posted by: jopalolive | Jan 6 2025 22:15 utc | 375

Posted by: james | Jan 6 2025 22:19 utc | 376

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 6 2025 21:07 utc | 447
—————————————————————- |
I believe that I apologize for misinterpreting you. Now I wonder why I wasted my time.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 22:25 utc | 377

I shall be forced to use another name.
Posted by: vargas | Jan 6 2025 16:51 utc | 406
Don’t you dare change names, dear son. Your father and I gave you that name…
Posted by: vargas’s mum | Jan 6 2025 20:03 utc | 443
LOL

Posted by: jopalolive | Jan 6 2025 22:27 utc | 378

From one who mainly reads and rarely comments, the x invasion made this blog a time wasting struggle to read. Before some leave in frustration, his object, he should be removed or a more modern platform with the Ignore function used.
Posted by: Organic | Jan 6 2025 22:12 utc | 460
————————————————————–
Wasn’t that the point? I wonder if “b” knows what’s going on?

Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 22:33 utc | 379

I find Freidman a very poor interviewer. His mannerisms are boring and distracting.
Also, he’s just not that bright. He tends to repeat questions or to ask questions in the script that were unexpectedly answered already. He doesn’t seem to be processing the information he’s getting and ask interesting followup questions.
All that said, he gets some great guests. And it is long form content. So, I’m kind of torn if I should watch the Z interview or not. If I do, it will be at 2x speed, as I do for most podcasts.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 6 2025 22:35 utc | 380

Thanks to the glorious leadership of Comrade Stalin, it is not bold to say: Learning from the Soviet Union means learning to win.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Jan 6 2025 22:39 utc | 381

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 21:34 utc | 455
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SqhyNoQISk
Suggests any gains were due to EW, similar to the Popasna flower that bloomed in ‘22 due to the Russians EW jamming the Ukrainian drones (used for surveillance, at the time). The trouble is, as seems to be happening, if the EW is destroyed or jammed then the status quo is established, but the units are now more exposed and vulnerable.
This maybe is what the Dima report is showing, a news crew invited in, after the situation has stabilised, watching as Ukrainian units are hunted down, without their EW shield.
Final points, if they fielded an EW suite that largely negated drone attack then the very fact that this is a relatively small scale assault speaks volumes to the state of the UAF. Eventually, one of these devices will be captured and a counter developed, meaning this is largely a one-shot opportunity. If this is reverse engineered and used against Ukraine the frontlines would collapse, given their reliance on drones. The Russians though have plenty of conventional platforms which can effectively deal with such an attack, with the initial gains probably due to the Russian soldiers over-reliance on drones, for numerous and completely understandable reasons.
Experienced operators
Ease of use
Far safer to operate
Complacency
Numbers available
These all give a fast-closing window for an opponent to exploit, but the Ukrainians need to have an operational centre of gravity that is not based on a few factors, or maybe one. If they have, the Russians will recover, identify the enemy CoG and attack it, causing a potential disaster. Which again, if the EW targeting strikes are correct, and the footage from the front suggest (AFV’s moving in concentrated formations) perhaps due to limits of the EW coverage (6-9m radius) is probably underway.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 22:44 utc | 382

Either way they run the war for the sake of appearances, blissfully unaware that the outcome will the grandest possible bad appearance.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 6 2025 14:35 utc | 361
Posted the same answer in different terms as I am scrolling backwards to avoid the spambot.
Slava Chutzpahyim!

Posted by: jopalolive | Jan 6 2025 22:59 utc | 383

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 21:34 utc | 455
Just an addendum to my post. I’ve said for a long time that the SMO is the drones swan song, a weapon system that is comparatively immature, with a short-lived position of ascendency (a weapon system that has no counter).If the Ukrainians have developed a robust point defence EW suite, the drone’s significance suddenly drops to that of any other weapon system.
The next stage in the evolutionary process is the drones adapting to the new threat, which seems to be already happening, as drones are now being deployed with conventional ranged weapons, allowing engagements outside the EW engagement zone. The FOG FPV’s were the first stage, then will come remote ranged weapons, countered by HK or EW drones.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:03 utc | 384

As Rutte ( Jan 6 2025 3:50 utc | 251) said a long time ago:

“X” is just a new Philly/Chen sock puppet.

That’s pretty obvious now.
Time for another (IP if possible) ban.
.

Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 6 2025 23:05 utc | 385

A tactic used on some forums is posters supposedly antithetical to one another are, in reality, tag-teaming the forum. By creating an artificially hostile environment, whilst baiting or compelling posters to respond. The object is to drive away new posters, clog up the forums and generally act as a force of friction.
I can’t help but notice that this recent onslaught has corresponded with a worsening situation for Ukraine, both politically and militarily, and wonder if it’s just a coincidence.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:20 utc | 386

Fuck you 11. You sound like you are only 11 years old.

A sad spectacle, hardly worthy of contempt.
The continued collapse of the UAF and impotence of NATO weaponry and tactics is starting to affect the NAFO types mental processes, perhaps.
The little Kursk counteroffensive that couldn’t? It’s a bit dark for a kids book, but it will have lots of pictures..

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 6 2025 23:27 utc | 387

Posted by: Organic | Jan 6 2025 22:12 utc | 460
I disagree with you that a poster should be ‘removed’. The MOA site is one of the very few that has minimal moderation/censorship. That is one of the reasons why I visit the bar almost daily. I can read a diverse range of opinions/analysis on a topic and make my own mind up on their merits.
As regards X, he has posted an inordinate amount of comments over the last 24 hours (see Naive’s post @450). There may well be nefarious reasons for this but my advice to you is to use your own ‘Ignore’ function i.e. skip his posts

Posted by: Siddhartha | Jan 6 2025 23:30 utc | 388

| Melaleuca | Jan 6 2025 21:29 utc | 453
Immediately before the Sudan civil War, right after the de facto president of Sudan agreed to host a Russian naval base, Victoria Nuland ran down to USAID in South Sudan with $288 million. The war started almost immediately thereafter.

Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 6 2025 23:30 utc | 389

Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 22:44 utc | 469
Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:03 utc | 474
Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:20 utc | 481
Why would they expose a ground breaking EW suite?
Only thing that comes to mind is that an autonomous drone can be hardened and such a strong EW suite would be a beacon not difficult to follow (you could almost follow it with a cristal radio)
AR drones could criple not only EW suites but the units attached.
Drone and EW are still too early to call on how they might balance out in the end. (short of someone comming up with stron non nuke EMP that fries even hardened circuits)
In the meanwhile RF is doing serious advance towards dnipro from the east, do you think they can join from the south?
And o another front, let’s all (not only milites) ignore the noise, it’s a bit like EW, hardened circuits can handle it.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 23:33 utc | 390

I can’t help but notice that this recent onslaught has corresponded with a worsening situation for Ukraine, both politically and militarily, and wonder if it’s just a coincidence.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:20 utc | 481

Coincidence, indeed. I nearly posted a similar observation. Narrative control isn’t what it used to be. Reduced to screaming loudly in the room like toddlers running around.
Also thanks (aristo I think) for the recommendation on McGregors latest I am watching it now. Certainly in my reckoning, thinking, capable people in NATO have been sidelined for people who will follow political imperatives regardless of cost or feasibility.
Even the politicians seem strangely compliant. Baerbock isn’t a military type but also looks incapable of managing a McDonalds. All across the West, the same, weak leadership, imbeciles making decisions against the national interest that can only benefit Maerican commercial interests. Coincidence? More likely the fruits of surveillance and bribery, in my humble estimation.
People in Europe are already waking up, slowly, to the smell. And it ain’t coffee.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 6 2025 23:35 utc | 391

Posted by: john brewster | Jan 6 2025 17:27 utc | 41 “By engaging with the LLM, you feed it new information that is germane to the discussion, thereby allowing it to learn how to be a better spammer, to seem more “human”.”
That is often not true. I do run this website into the RAG on a LLM I run locally for entertainment but most only add data when in training. That is, they don’t pollute themselves to easily.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 6 2025 23:37 utc | 392

Those others & older, vargas & co, have miraculously become some sort of mascots in here. At every bar, there are always slightly irritating people and – well – every one of us may just once in a while be that one.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 6 2025 16:45 utc | 403
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Once in a while; yes! But not ALL of the time: Big difference.

Posted by: Ed | Jan 6 2025 23:39 utc | 393

People in Europe are already waking up, slowly, to the smell. And it ain’t coffee.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 6 2025 23:35 utc | 486
Afraid not, but that’s my personal take on what I see.
———–
That is often not true. I do run this website into the RAG on a LLM I run locally for entertainment but most only add data when in training. That is, they don’t pollute themselves to easily.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 6 2025 23:37 utc | 487
Yes, I seem to recall you had MOA on an AI, when did you update it last? Might be fun to search for coherent inputs (not saying I would blindly trust whatever you said the results were, but might be fun)

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 6 2025 23:53 utc | 394

Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 6 2025 23:05 utc | 476
Posted by: Milites | Jan 6 2025 23:20 utc | 481
I think you are right – x and Chen are a tag-team to sow discord. They don’t add anything to the conversation.

Posted by: Siddhartha | Jan 6 2025 23:58 utc | 395

Todd on Trump :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTz0gnOM3NM

Posted by: malamatias | Jan 7 2025 0:02 utc | 396

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 6 2025 23:35 utc | 486
If you think of them as puppets it helps. The mediocre, elevated in a Peter Principle with stage one and two boosters, and given nominal power, whilst being totally reliant on their backers. On the other side, power with no responsibility or accountability, enabling you to use your puppet to gain huge amounts of power and money, which to your shrivelled soul is all that matters.
But yes, the people of the West are waking up. The subconscious feelings of unease, reflected in the cultural Zombie mania a decade plus ago, has now begun to creep toward the conscious and the puppeteers are getting out the scissors as a result. It will be interesting if the victims trace these control threads back, then the ‘fun’ really will start.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 7 2025 0:03 utc | 397

Nah, we’ve heard about the “collapse” of Ukraine for 14 months now, yet, they seem to come up with 1000s and 1000s of soldiers whenever they’re needed. The entire line continues to be a sludge grind, whether 2 km taken or 20,
I’ve yet to see this “running out of equipment” everyone gossips about. As myriads of equipment, vehicles & UAVs are destroyed daily, so they are, in fact, being supplied.
The idea for the West isn’t to “win”, it’s to keep Russia engaged endlessly. And they can do that, for years.
Just saying, if this is the best Russia can do with one NATO (shush…it’s not “formal”) country that isn’t even really doing anything other than occasional terror acts on their soil, then Russia has been wise to stay out of the NATO direct fray as obviously, they’d get their asses kicked if more than one country were actually engaged in military combat against them.
They’ve a lot of toys, but no will to use them.
It’s hardly just Ukraine being “attrited” here. And neither Nation will ever be wholly attrited. As for bodies, US will find them and EU will help.
Look what 13 years of Syria brought.
Russia should wake up and finish this theatre.
But, they won’t. And there is zero “peace plan” in the making, just carrot/PR talk fir the masses, like the “Gaza” peace garbage. US has no need or reason to change a thing, the rape of EU is going splendid, the Ukraine laundry mat works well, and Russian bodies are piling up (and their Slav “brothers”) All in all, US looking pretty good. The 100 billion matters not, cuz they will just take the 300 billion.
Life is pretty good, nothing needs to change as far as US concerned. Why? Because Russia isn’t going to change a thing that it’s doing, so no need for the US to. Bodies will be found.
Sorry, but being realistic. Russia gaining this or that territory hardly matters, even they know that, and the bigger picture, the Strategic Security Framework with EU, will never happen.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 7 2025 0:09 utc | 398

But yes, the people of the West are waking up. The subconscious feelings of unease, reflected in the cultural Zombie mania a decade plus ago, has now begun to creep toward the conscious and the puppeteers are getting out the scissors as a result. It will be interesting if the victims trace these control threads back, then the ‘fun’ really will start.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 7 2025 0:03 utc | 492
You could say the same about the original night of the living dead back in 1968, the other day I was discussing lib/con swings and how they predated a major crisis.(the 2022 nosferatu , or even dr. mabuse, were probably the ones to translate the zeitgeist in the previous cycle)
It’s just a “the dream is over moment” not a major upheaval (IMHO)

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 7 2025 0:12 utc | 399

Posted by: Jo | Jan 6 2025 21:26 utc | 451
Quite funny. And what is the place of the Russian army? 3rd, after France, I guess. So that an army of less 200’000 soldiers is beating the biggest European army.

Posted by: Naive | Jan 7 2025 0:19 utc | 400

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