Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 23, 2025
Trump’s Opening Cry To Russia Falls Flat

In May 2017 the Russian president Vladimir Putin had an interview with Le Figaro. He explained his experience with policy preferences forwarded by U.S. presidents:

I have already spoken to three US Presidents. They come and go, but politics stay the same at all times. Do you know why? Because of the powerful bureaucracy. When a person is elected, they may have some ideas. Then people with briefcases arrive, well dressed, wearing dark suits, just like mine, except for the red tie, since they wear black or dark blue ones. These people start explaining how things are done. And instantly, everything changes. This is what happens with every administration.

It took only two days for that to happen with the second presidency of Donald Trump. Instead of seeking better relations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, as he had promised during the campaign, Trump initiated a public 'dialog' with Russia that seems to make both of these aims impossible.

He posted on Truth-Social:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Jan 22, 2025, 15:46 UTC

I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin – and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better. It’s time to “MAKE A DEAL.” NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!

One wonders what the people in dark suits were thinking when they fed such bullshit to Donald Trump.

Russia did not 'help' to win the Second World War. It did win it. It was the U.S. and others who were merely helpful in doing so.

As Kremlin spokesmen Dimitry Peskov rightly replied:

"The main burden in the fight against fascism and the biggest price for the victory in the fight against fascism was paid by our country, the Soviet Union." "The US did indeed help. It made a significant contribution. But there’s one caveat: America always makes money, for America it's always about business," Peskov emphasized.

The Soviet Union did not lose 60 million lives in that war but less than half of it – about 11 million soldiers and 15 million civilians.

Russia's economy is not falling.

Even Reuters, which has anonymous sources speculate about Putin's 'concerns' with the economy, has to admit:

Russia's economy, driven by exports of oil, gas and minerals, grew robustly over the past two years despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia currently has a somewhat higher than usual inflation. But a shortage of labor has let to wage growth beyond the inflation rate and to a spread of general prosperity:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked about the Reuters reporting, acknowledged "problematic factors" in the economy, but said it was developing at a high rate and was able to meet "all military requirements incrementally" as well as all welfare and social needs.

"There are problems, but unfortunately, problems are now the companions of almost all countries of the world," he said. "The situation is assessed as stable, and there is a margin of safety."

After contracting in 2022, Russia's GDP grew faster than the European Union and the United States in 2023 and 2024. This year, however, the central bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast sub-1.5% growth, although the government projects a slightly rosier outlook.

Trump threat to put "high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States" demonstrates his plain ignorance. The only valuable product Russia is still selling to the U.S. is the enriched Uranium needed to run U.S. nuclear power plants. Trump can tax, tariff and sanction that as much as he likes.

He could also try to sanction other Russian energy exports. But those are double-edged measures:

Trump’s proposed tariffs and sanctions could also backfire on the United States and its allies:

  • Energy Prices: A reduction in Russian energy exports could spike global oil and gas prices, hurting Western consumers.

  • Geopolitical Realignments: Aggressive sanctions might accelerate the creation of parallel financial and trade systems outside of Western control, weakening U.S. influence.

  • Economic Blowback: American industries reliant on certain raw materials from Russia, such as metals for manufacturing, could face higher costs and supply disruptions.

No one in Russia, for certain not Putin, will take such Trump's attempt to open negotiations seriously.

If Trump wants to achieve a peace agreement over Ukraine he will need to reject the neo-conservative dark suits' opinions and find people who know what they are talking about.

Senseless barking at Moscow, as Trump has done so far, will be responded to with a rather bored yawn:

The Kremlin is not impressed by United States President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new sanctions against Russia if it does not agree to strike a peace deal with Ukraine.

"We do not see any particular new elements here," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian media Thursday. Peskov added that Trump “liked sanctions” and used them often during his first presidential term.

“Russia is ready for an equal and careful dialogue with the United States, which we had during Trump's first term," Peskov said, according to Russian independent media outlet Meduza. "We are waiting for signals that have not yet been received."

Comments

This is an example of why I started looking at ground truth, and the actual math:
Here’s a pro-Russian Telegrammer, with an update:
“Offensive from Kurakhovo to Dnepropetrovsk: Russian army rushes forward liberating vast territories…”
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1882463192850325832
—-
Of course the actual numbers on the territory changes are the reciprocal of “vast”.
This is why I started looking at reality and cold, hard math. Not just spin.
And yes, Ukrops have their spin also. But I pretty much follow pro-RFA to neutral sources, with the exception of Deep State…who is clearly the best mapper…I’ve parsed the stuff enough that I know his imperfections…but you really can’t be off for rate of change, just baseline (do the math).
P.s. And don’t get me started with the attrition copers. Funny as hell to see both sides pulling that stuff, but then unable to explain the impact on the map of all that muh attrition.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 23 2025 19:14 utc | 101

Dear marcjf,
as far as I know, Western arms deliveries only accounted for 15% of the weapons used on the eastern front. But what are weapons without soldiers like those now in Ukraine?
Incidentally, the Soviet Union was the last major state to conclude a treaty with Nazi Germany in 1939. The first state was the ideological superpower Vatican.
However, one thing usually goes unmentioned: Stalin saved the Germans’ arse, because if the war had dragged on, the first atomic bombs would have fallen on Berlin and not on Japan. After all, that’s what they had been developed for.
Otto Kern
DE-37412 Herzberg-the city of Esperanto

Posted by: Otto Kern | Jan 23 2025 19:14 utc | 102

Trumpmania will end quite soon in case the supporters of Russia once fell for it.
Where are the JFK, MLK, RFK, moon and 911 files? Nowhere it seems.
And now he wants to go to Mars. Forgetting it was already done. With Matt Damon.
What a clown!

Posted by: Naive | Jan 23 2025 19:15 utc | 103

Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 23 2025 16:57 utc | 40
I will not, cannot, believe Trump will ever put America First until he’s signed an executive order BANNING all DUAL-CITIZENS from all forms of American governance–local, state, and federal.
One cannot serve two masters. Ever.
<=I am asking B to please give you a MoA gold star as a award for your comment. Trump needs to put your words into a constitutional amendment..and he needs to get that proposed amendment approved by the congress and get it on the way to the states for ratification. Once again if Trumps wants all he has to do at this time is ask the American people to help him accomplish the task, and it likely will happen..without any input from the Bureaucracies and state, county, or city governments. Because Trillions of US taxpayer money is spent on USA foreign policy it is reasonable that the voting taxpayers should have a say in what that USA foreign policy should and should not be. How can that be accomplished? Posted by: DemocracyUberAlles | Jan 23 2025 17:18 utc | 50 So what leverage does Trump have over Putin right now? <=If the objective is to end the war.. then Trump has all the leverage he needs.. just back everything up to the 1999 borders, eliminate sanctions, waste NATO, open up Swift to Russian transactions, return to Russia its foreign reserves, return the USA to the Nuclear non proliferation treaty and include in it Iran and Israel, ICC to look into human rights issues in Ukraine, UK to be sanctioned until it stops the war it started and advances in Ukraine, and Putin to be invited to play golf in South Florida. Its that simple. can be accomplished in one day and one hour.

Posted by: snake | Jan 23 2025 19:22 utc | 104

Holy shit b, get over Trump.
Trump is the “news story” that silences talk on Gaza.
Trump’s role is pure distraction – he is very good at it.

Posted by: Rae | Jan 23 2025 19:29 utc | 105

– It’s clear that Trump hasn’t got the faintest clue how complicated the situation is in the Ukraine. What the motives are for Russia to contnue this war in the Ukraine. Russia wants a comprehensive “Security Architecture” for the entire of Europe. Russia wants to be sure that there won’t be a new war in the next say 10 or 20 years.

Posted by: WMG | Jan 23 2025 19:31 utc | 106

The first thing Putin needs to do with Trump is simple: play hard to get.
Certainly, DO NOT initiate a meeting with him. In fact, ignore him. That will rattle the stupid bastard.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 23 2025 19:35 utc | 107

james | Jan 23 2025 18:23 utc | 82–
I hope you and other barflies reading Larry Johnson’s CIA article read the comment I made in response to what he wrote. Actually, I have a better idea: I’ll post it below:
“Again, the CIA and its predecessor OSS was involved with the OUN and other Banderite organizations within Ukraine keeping Nazism alive from 1945 onwards as a Congressional Investigation documented. From Cynthia Chung’s excellent historical essay:

In 1998, the Nazi War Crimes and Japanese Imperial Government Records Interagency Working Group (IWG), at the behest of Congress, launched what became the largest congressionally mandated, single-subject declassification effort in history. As a result, more than 8.5 million pages of records have been opened to the public under the Nazi War Crimes Disclosure Act (P.L. 105-246) and the Japanese Imperial Government Disclosure Act (P.L. 106-567). These records include operational files of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS), the CIA, the FBI and Army intelligence. IWG issued three reports to Congress between 1999 and 2007.

“That’s one of the “roots” Russia talks about. The other was sparked by Obama in 2014–he has the end responsibility for the Coup and all events that have transpired since as with the unleashing of Aggressive War, the ultimate War Crime. The policy to attach OUN by OSS predates V-E Day and Truman’s presidency; so, who it was in FDR’s team that planted the first root has yet to be outed. Someone in SHAEF, and certainly more than one person.”
There’s more but the above directly relates to what Mr. Johnson tried to spin.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 19:38 utc | 108

Western aid provided at a rough calulation around 40% of the war potential of the USSR including such basic things as trucks, jeeps, aluminuim, radios, HE, food and uniforms.
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 23 2025 17:35 utc | 62

Please provide a citation for this figure.

Posted by: KOB | Jan 23 2025 19:43 utc | 109

@S Brennan #46
I both agree and disagree that Trump will be blamed.
The PMCs, the Deep State, the neocons, the neoliberals, the Kagans and what not will blame Trump.
But nobody else will give a shit.
Trump is not playing to the former, he is playing to the latter.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 19:43 utc | 110

Ahenobarbus | Jan 23 2025 16:23 utc | 20
I was not privy to this, but many years ago a friend of my brother’s sold a property to Trump. It was the craziest negotiation he ever had and was a cacophony of wheeling and dealing, but in the end he got the price he wanted. Trump thought he got over on him.

Posted by: azeclecticdog | Jan 23 2025 19:45 utc | 111

The first thing Putin needs to do with Trump is simple: play hard to get.
Certainly, DO NOT initiate a meeting with him. In fact, ignore him. That will rattle the stupid bastard.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 23 2025 19:35 utc | 107
Agreed. Trump needs to be brought down a peg or two before negotiations of any kind.💪Kow-towing to him will only play to his twisted ego and make him bolder. Ignoring him will, though, will embolden Russia, Putin and many other nations around the world who want to see an end to US and western hegemony.💪

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Jan 23 2025 19:45 utc | 112

B,
‘Trump initiated a public ‘dialog’ with Russia that seems to make both of these aims impossible.’
This should not be surprising, after all Trump is a very typical American. And American society has a few characteristics that lead to posts such as Trumps.
1. Americans are historically, culturally and geographically illiterate, except for what pertains directly to the U.S. Trump, in all likelihood, has no idea that his interpretation of history, what he learned in school, would upset Russia.
2. American culture is strongly authoritarian, a characteristic that they inherited from the British, and which has been reinforced during the past 50 years. Authoritarians believe that what motivates people is ‘fear and greed’, which is clearly evidenced in Trump’s post. They also believe that their authoritarian culture is universal.
However, much of the world, outside of the ‘West’ and their former colonies, is much less authoritarian. Rather it operates based on more collaborative cultures. What motivates people in collaborative cultures is what I like to term as ‘caring and sharing’. Such a collaborative culture is clearly evident in the way the BRIICS and the Multi-Polar World is being developed.
The inability of authoritarian Western leaders to even understand that Russia could have a culture that does not respond to ‘fear and greed’ is what leads to proposals like Trumps that do more harm than good.
Indeed, I would posit that the inability of authoritarian Western leaders to understand the culture and motivations of their adversaries is what has led to the debacle now unfolding for them in Ukraine, and to the decline of the West in general.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jan 23 2025 19:46 utc | 113

@
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 23 2025 17:35 utc | 62
Also. This was not “Western aid”. USSR was BUYING everything it received. It was trade alliance.

Posted by: KOB | Jan 23 2025 19:48 utc | 114

@Anonymous #101
That’s because morons don’t understand that territory is the final outcome to the Russian Way of War, not a symptom along the path.
No doubt similar idiots in Russia were saying the same nonsense when Napoleon entered Moscow and when Hitler’s forces came to Saint Petersburg.
Only Western idiots trained by Western movies think that war is won by lightning strikes or double somersaulting to flank the enemy on both sides. The Russian Way of War has always been the exhaust, then destroy the enemy.
It worked with Napoleon, it worked with Hitler, it is working with Ukraine and the West.
The biggest losses suffered by the enemies of Russia in those conflicts, both in terms of men/material and territory, came AFTER the enemy was attrited sufficiently.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 19:51 utc | 115

However, one thing usually goes unmentioned: Stalin saved the Germans’ arse, because if the war had dragged on, the first atomic bombs would have fallen on Berlin and not on Japan. After all, that’s what they had been developed for.

Posted by: Otto Kern | Jan 23 2025 19:14 utc | 102

Excellent point. It’s also noteworthy that plenty of those that worked on the bomb changed their views about its (completely unnecessary) use against Imperial Japan once Nazi Germany was militarily defeated.
In this context, those scientists who “betrayed” the nuclear secrets, thereby accelerating the Soviet development of their own bomb, were doing the world a favour. They felt betrayed by the political leadership who, once they had a new weapon, wanted to keep it to themselves… forever. See, e.g., “A Compassionate Spy” amd the Ted Hall story for more details on this.

Posted by: NH | Jan 23 2025 19:52 utc | 116

Trump inherited a country on the event horizon of an existential crisis , Putin inherited a country in an existential crisis : they are not the same. Hopeless boomer and hopeful doomer… an interesting duo ; will it dance well ?

Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Jan 23 2025 19:55 utc | 117

Posted by: Otto Kern | Jan 23 2025 19:14 utc | 102
So I have occasionally been acused of using misleading language but I actually used the term “war potential” which is not the same as “weapons”. 15% for weapons is an accurate estimate. Too late in the day for me to provide links etc, but the West provided c 50% of aluminium of the Soviet war effort (think aircraft and T34 engines), 50% of its HE, 66% of its motorised transport, most of its radios,and a pair of boots for every soviet soldier – along with a tin of spam every day for every one of them – along with most of its replacement railway engines and trucks and was its only or main supply of high octaine aviation fuel. And much much else. Including gold braid for its officers. So vital components in any war machine. Even in 1941 some authors claim that western aid was pivotal, though I am not convinced myself at that time.But late 42 onwards it made the difference, along with the rebuilding of the RKKA.
And by the by, if we compare this to the Russian-Ukraine war then we read of leopards etc, but the real support is in money, logistical support and such boring stuff as fuel, food, medical supplies, uniforms, trucks and SUVs.Plus ISR. The West has an almost infinite ability to supply these relatively low cost items as long as Ukraine supplies the bodies. And alas that is the brutal equation, much as in WW2.

Posted by: marcjf | Jan 23 2025 20:01 utc | 118

@marcjf #62
The West DID NOT provide 40% of the Russian economy in World War 2.
That is complete Western bullshit.
The West did not even provide that percentage of tanks, planes, trucks, you name it much less the far, far greater costs of ammunition, food, transport and so forth.
The Western aid was helpful, it was appreciated but it was by no means critical if for no other reason than the West did not want to help Communist Russia and Stalin any more than it had to.
For example: the most common bullshit meme is that Russia would have failed without the 400,000 trucks sent by the West. Well, here’s the problem: the Soviet Union manufactured over 12 MILLION trucks in WW2. Did the 400K trucks help? Sure but it was a small fraction of the trucks made and used.
If we look at the sheer numbers of convoys: there were 78 total over the entire course of World War 2 carrying 4 million tons of stuff. Sounds like a lot, right?
Well, let’s contrast this with D Day: 570K tons of supplies for a single coastal invasion by 160,000 troops.
The problem is that the USSR mobilized 34 million men and was around 11 million at its largest. The consumption of supplies by the Soviet military was certainly at least 50 times more than the D-Day invasion force, meaning the 4 million tons was nice but didn’t visibly move the bar AT ALL in terms of just the Soviet military, much less the overall Soviet economy.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 20:05 utc | 119

My dear Donald,
Here’s a postcard from Yuzhmash,
Having a lovely time, hope you are too,
Regards,
Your good friend Vladimir

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 20:15 utc | 120

I see Trump is going on again today about Putin not wanting to make a deal. Only economic stuff to push Russia along to make a deal today. But in the past he has talked about providing weapons to Ukraine to help push Putin along.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 20:15 utc | 121

Some here forecasting Russia eventually taking Odessa, one of the crown jewels from eKatarina’s era.
I don’t see it being done via conquest, Russia will not want to see centuries of development turned to rubble. If Russia invades Odessa, NATO will come into the war. NATO supply chains from Romania are far shorter than for Russia.
The only way Odessa gets repatriated is through a complete collapse of NATO and/or regime change in Ukraine.

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Jan 23 2025 20:15 utc | 122

The idiot threatened Spain, saying it was a Brics country. His ignorance is beyond belief.
Posted by: hispanidad | Jan 23 2025 16:15 utc | 13
That wasn’t ignorance, he knew exactly what he was saying something very significant the you didn’t pick up on. Look in the mirror when you’re talking about ignorance.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Jan 23 2025 20:18 utc | 123

Posted by: snake | Jan 23 2025 19:22 utc | 104
Thank you.

Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 23 2025 20:18 utc | 124

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 20:05 utc | 119 “the Soviet Union manufactured over 12 MILLION trucks in WW2.
What is the source for that number? Because the claim for the US is that it made about 2 million trucks. So 12 million made by the USSR seems a bit high. By maybe a factor of 10?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 20:18 utc | 125

Trump turning on Pompeo is surprising because Pompeo was such a yes man for him. It’s not only a hit to the neoconservatives, but also to the evangelicals, because Pompeo was a stalwart believer in the end times prophecies, which US support for Israel was integral to.
It seems like Trump is surrounding himself with digital technology oligarchs – Marc Andreesen, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos. This administration is going to be more dedicated to shoring up the internal contradictions of US society, but of course, because it’s being carried out by anti-labor monopoly capitalists who are so rich that they’re insulated from any societal consequences, it will not succeed. What the administration has already done (and let’s not pretend Trump even knew what he was signing the other day) is far more likely to explode social contradictions than to resolve them.

Posted by: fnord | Jan 23 2025 20:22 utc | 126

The first thing Putin needs to do with Trump is simple: play hard to get.
Certainly, DO NOT initiate a meeting with him. In fact, ignore him. That will rattle the stupid bastard.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 23 2025 19:35 utc | 107
Agreed. Trump needs to be brought down a peg or two before negotiations of any kind.💪Kow-towing to him will only play to his twisted ego and make him bolder. Ignoring him will, though, will embolden Russia, Putin and many other nations around the world who want to see an end to US and western hegemony.💪
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Jan 23 2025 19:45 utc | 112
I could not agree more. Trump needs to ackowledge that America, its People, has been the biggest sponsor of global terror for decades, that this was done without the knowledge of the People, and certainly against their will, and then Trump should grow a pair and apologize to the entire fucking world, while offering Nuland and Blinken to Russia to prosecute as the olive branch from America, in the act of turning over a new leaf.
As it stands, America is incapable of agreement. Too many liars, dual citizens, et. al.

Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 23 2025 20:26 utc | 127

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 20:05 utc | 119 “If we look at the sheer numbers of convoys: there were 78 total”
78 is the number of Arctic Convoys. They carried less than 25% of the total Western aid to the USSR during the war.
Check out the convoys via what is now Iran and via the Pacific. The route through Iran supplied about the same amount as the Arctic Convoys did. I believe the Pacific convoy route supplied twice what the Arctic convoy route did.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 20:27 utc | 128

«Мы их освободили, и они нам этого никогда не простят»,
— пророческая фраза маршала Победы Георгия Жукова

Posted by: too scents | Jan 23 2025 20:31 utc | 129

@marcjf #118
yes, let’s look at your data sources and the actual numbers within them.
I’ve dug deep on this issue and have seen the plethora of garbage that hides the truth, so I am very interested to see where you get your assertions from.
Even on the face of it, it is ridiculous: 40% of the HE used by the Soviet Union in WW2? Meaning artillery, aerial bombs, tank rounds, grenades, mines and so forth?
I’ve already posted above the total number of Arctic convoys and their contents above: 4 million tons.
Let’s now contrast this with the 40% assertion you make. The USSR had in the order of 500,000 artillery pieces in WW2. If each one fired a mere 10 shells a day for 3.5 years – and we’ll assume each one is 155mm for simplicity sake, then that is 100kg of TNT per artillery piece per day, x500000, for roughly 1300 days.
That comes to 65 million tons of TNT. 40% of that is 26 million tons of TNT. Well, the convoys only carried 4 million tons, period.
So have to say, bullshit on the “40% of HE used by the USSR in WW2”.
But this bullshit goes even deeper: the US produced 193000 artillery pieces in WW2 according to Wiki – roughly 2/3rds of all Allied (i.e. non USSR) combat artillery.
Well, 193000 is much, much smaller than the 500,000+ in the Red Army. With artillery usage certainly proportional to number of guns – the possibility of the US being even able to supply 40% of the consumption by 500,000 Soviet artillery pieces is utterly ludicrous.
Western propaganda has not only erased the reality of the USSR winning World War 2 – it has erased the enormous industrial production underlying this victory.
This industrial production is what scared the shit out of the West, that and the ability demonstrated when the Red Army moved 2 million troops plus accompanying equipment, entirely across the full Eurasian continent to beat the shit out of the Japanese army in Manchuria and Northern China is roughly 6 weeks. This fact alone greatly supports the idea that Nagasaki and Hiroshima were done primarily to deter the Soviets.
Look at the timing:
Germany surrenders May 7, 1945
[the Red Army moves 2 million troops from Europe to Asia starting late June 1945]
Russia declares war on Japan and attacks Japan’s 700K+ strong Kwantung army on August 9, 1945
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were August 6 and August 9, 1945
Japan surrenders August 15, 1945. The Kwantung army was already defeated then, but formally surrendered August 16, 1945.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 20:33 utc | 130

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 17:44 utc | 65
##########
I’ve always felt that Helmer is a concern troll with top-secret sources that he has to “protect”.
There is always a low-IQ audience for such nonsense. Helmer traffics in rumor and innuendo. Polished gossip masquerading as journalism.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 20:36 utc | 131

Ed4@2018 Jan 23
Likely the only military equipment that the U$ provided for Russia under the Lend Lease program were the Studebaker 6×6 (yeah, six-wheel drive) trucks in fairly large numbers.
It is probable that Russian truck factories soon re-engineered those mechanical marvels for their logistics trains. Possibly by their Stalingrad counter-offensive in the winter campaign would have featured those original Studies. Highly likely that from the time of the Kursk Salient destruction of Wehrmacht offensive potential were largely supplied by the Studebakers.
Don’t have the time to research both the production of those mechanical marvels…and how many were actually provided to the Red Army. If a poster does have the time and inclination for the research it would be of considerable interest for military history buffs.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 23 2025 20:40 utc | 132

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. And also those who do not look up the source data, or understand its signifigance, or rely on so called expert published works. As I noted, the problem with history is that it has a habit of changing. I am not going to engage in numerical debates etc. There was a great series of Soviet stats published on line [???] which I think is now off line and opaque to those who can’t read Russian. Luckily I took downloads etc about 10 years ago before Cold War 2 started. And just to help, most of western orientated academics have got this this wrong, mistaking basic numbers and definitions etc, and repeating easily refuted errors. Like most of history, you can pick and choose your own narrative. Which is often backed by by “facts”. But if you spend 20 years cross checking sources and break things down to say how many T34’s were produced in each factory each month, then you get a better idea of what is accurate.Or not, and let me tell you the stats of the “Great Patriotic War” are very fuzzy.
And for any serious military historian, the tip of the spear is just that – the tip. A tank is a useless metal box without ammo and fuel, and a trained crew, and the back up to keep it in that state.And so ultimately military potential is grounded in logistics which is grounded in gdp. Not that that stat has so much relevance these days…
Time for me to retire. Good lunch and better dinner. 😉

Posted by: marcjf | Jan 23 2025 20:43 utc | 133

Clearly President Trump is not being given the full intel, otherwise he would not be making the kind of statements we currently see. Somebody (or bodies) are setting him up for a huge fall.
I’ll make a bet that he is not being shown stuff such as this:

The court arrested the ex-official of the Ministry of Defense, through which they sent unusable machine guns to the front for almost 200 million hryvnias
The district court of Poltava took into custody with the possibility of making a bail of more than 9 million hryvnias the former director of one of the departments of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Also, one of the heads of a state-owned enterprise was sent to custody with a bail of UAH 18 million.
This is reported by the State Bureau of Investigation, informs RegioNews .
An official of the Ministry of Defense and two heads of a state-owned enterprise were supposed to deliver 400 certified large-caliber machine guns to the front in 2022. But they pulled off a deal that instead of high-quality weapons, the troops got cheap analogues that were not suitable for their intended use. In addition, only half of the declared machine guns were delivered.
The 200 machine guns purchased at state expense did not have any markings, relevant technical documentation, or any accompanying documents. During their combat use, the weapon could not conduct continuous firing and after the first shots generally failed due to the destruction of parts and mechanisms.
Because of this, the state budget suffered losses of more than UAH 193 million, and the Ukrainian military put themselves in danger.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1737645684-sud-areshtuvav-eksposadovtsya-minoboroni-cherez-yakogo-na-front-vidpravili-nepridatni-kulemeti-na-mayzhe-200-mln-griven (via translation add-on.)
Laird Donald Of That Ilk needs to strip out and completely overhaul his sources of information.
Let the wind blow high
Let the wind blow low
Through the swamp
In his kilt he’ll go
Donald, mind the ’gators

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 20:44 utc | 134

Well, since we’re still at the entertainment stage of negotiations, this fits the bill…
https://youtu.be/18ehShFXRb0?feature=shared

Posted by: john | Jan 23 2025 20:47 utc | 135

Fool Me@2015
You may be overestimating the power of the Collective Wa$te when it comes to the LIBERATION of Odessa. As has been their strategy in the Donbass, the R.U. forces would not likely make a direct attack on the rather smallish Ukie forces squatting on Odessa. They will flank the place…and with air supremacy in the region, would be enabled to parachute hand-held weaponry to the numerous ethnic Russians who reside in Odessa…in this instance mostly made up of elder men, sturdy women and teenage boys.
F-16 fighter jets flying out of Romanian bases would more than meet their match facing the 5th generation Sukhois. It is also possible that Romanian units would not “protect” those NATO bases, perhaps even the opposite.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jan 23 2025 20:47 utc | 136

Trump’s new external revenue agency will collect tariffs. I predict he will try to charge larger tariffs on foreign countries doing trade with Russia regardless of whether these foreign countries export to the USA. I also predict the end of the reserve status of the USD if this goes ahead and the default of the USA on its USD35T debt.

Posted by: Kaiama | Jan 23 2025 20:48 utc | 137

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 23 2025 19:35 utc | 107
##########
I always admired the (fictional) Bene Gesserit way of dealing with bad actors. A formal statement of “You will pay” and then at the time of their choosing a punishment meant to teach and punish that opposing party. Once said by anyone in leadership, it was written in stone. Such statements were not made casually because of the organizational commitment to making such a claim inescapable and punitive.
Less talk, more rock. There should be no more True Promise 3 claims, which were promoted by every Axis commentator but seem to have been aborted. Promises made but not kept are a sign of weakness.
Better to say nothing than to beat one’s chest and then wilt during the moment of confrontation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 20:48 utc | 138

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Jan 23 2025 20:15 utc | 122
Or Russia waits until late in the game, cuts supply routes to Odessa off from the north & the sea & waits it out.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 23 2025 20:53 utc | 139

Trump needs to ackowledge that America, its People, has been the biggest sponsor of global terror for decades, that this was done without the knowledge of the People, and certainly against their will, and then Trump should grow a pair and apologize to the entire fucking world, while offering Nuland and Blinken to Russia to prosecute as the olive branch from America, in the act of turning over a new leaf.
As it stands, America is incapable of agreement. Too many liars, dual citizens, et. al.
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Jan 23 2025 20:26 utc | 127
#######
The presumption is that Trump doesn’t support the policies of the USG when all he has done is speak against them.
Actions, not words. Trump is one of the greatest living marketers ever.
We have no proof that Trump opposes Cookie Nuland’s agenda.
In his defense, I did notice that the USAID bio page for color revolution herald Samantha Power was 404 after his inauguration.
With time, everyone reveals their true nature. Trump will probably serve another 3 years if he can figure out who is and is not in BRICS. The first week is too early to judge this iteration of Trump. He hasn’t even fired one of his appointees yet.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 20:55 utc | 140

Re: Soviet vs. US WWII effort ?
This bickering reminds me of Churchill spending a few pages in his WWII memoirs PROVING that the English contribution to the victory was equal or greater than any other country.

Posted by: Exile | Jan 23 2025 20:58 utc | 141

Maybe I’m misreading, but
1. I think there is a subtle communication on the 60 million WW2 dead, directly killed they were 16 million , a 3.75 ratio, apply that to “the million RF killed in the SMO” and we’re spot on at 375.000 killed I mentioned several times. i.e. I know
2. As long as he asks for lower oil prices and threatens sanctions, trump can cut-off help (and maybe more important intelligence and coordinate loading on stand-off weapons)
3. Giving 90 days for RF to reach the desired point and close the deal can be a first limit and twice that the real date where trump MUST close a deal
4. There is something else on 2, as RF tried to diversify fund sources, it mismanaged a bad potato year and excessive exports and, not monetary policy, got potato prices almost doubling (+60% something). Really closing the vise on oil and gas would lead to increased risks there
5. China and India. Now we know trump can play modi A LIMITED TIME, so we’re back where I said in the previous thread:
“After that we’ve even seen a reduction in RF’s advance when putin proved he could be accelerating.
Now what scenarios are there on the table?
I can see a couple of them:
A. Trump understands its not a fire sale, gives enough and putin’s not greedy nor boastful
B. In kiev someone wakes up, smells the coffee, hangs Z and his azovs and throw themselves at RF’s mercy (probably the most profitable for ukraine)
C. None of the above with RF again advancing harder and things ending in A, B, or WW3
Option C cannot take place later than june without somebody providing meat in the 100k levels.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 22 2025 22:55 utc | 111”

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 142

You mostly all got it wrong. Trumps bloviating is part of his stragedy to shape events. All policy comes out of the NSC and he just chopped out the whole staff. Some 150 policy hacks were sent back to their three letter domains. Remember Vindeman?
Give him time. He will sit down with Putin more than twice and the US will be no more pushing aid into Ukraine. Despite his ignorance and bloviating the end result will be the same. Trump is agreement capable. They can use ISR instead of peacekeepers. The place is flat and open for the most part.
Greenland and Panama will be the same. A deal will be made. Chinese control of both ends of the Canal will be bought by a US friendly entitly and his Sewards folly in Greenland will end with some sort of arrangement with more US control, bases, and such.
Trump is shooting from the hip knowing he will get less. He wants less. He does want something.

Posted by: circumspect | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 143

In reply to #101
After 3 years of a 3 day war, I think Ucrainian war reports are 50% truth and 50% propaganda, while Russian war reports are 90% propaganda and 10% truth.
?m getting tired of ‘Ucraine collapsing’ narrative. A glacier moves faster than Ucraine’s collapse.

Posted by: Louis | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 144

I also predict the end of the reserve status of the USD if this goes ahead and the default of the USA on its USD35T debt.
Posted by: Kaiama | Jan 23 2025 20:48 utc | 137
Hey, maybe for the best no? Perfect excuse to replace the old and wasted usd with some fresh MAGACOIN
Sorry if you were holding usd 😉

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 145

LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 20:36 utc | 131–
Thanks for your reply. I rarely read his blog, usually the result of a suggestion as in this case. Today’s government meeting transcript is now done and the matter discussed yesterday about the indexing of social payments to the current level of inflation was reopened. Kotyakov noted:
“Last week, on January 15, Rosstat published actual inflation data for 2024. At the end of the year, it amounted to 9.5 percent. Since January, insurance pensions have already been increased by 7.3 percent, that is, by the projected inflation rate. On your instructions, additional indexation of insurance pensions to the level of actual inflation will be ensured.”
The number of categories of people eligible for such payments has greatly expanded and thus the overall additional amount that will need to come from the budget and thus affect the budget rule was a concern. Finance Minister Siluanov said the following:
“Yes, Mr President, we have the necessary resources defined. The total amount of additional funds that need to be allocated to increase pensions and benefits, both military pensions and pensions of military pensioners, in accordance with the instruction you gave yesterday, is about 300 billion rubles. The money will be determined from the budget of the Social Fund and from the federal budget, so the resources have provided for the solution.”
Such an answer doesn’t come from an economy that’s “teetering” or is some form of crisis/stress.
What’s of great interest today is Maria Zakharova’s briefing which is very long. What she has to say about Demark’s genocide of Greenland’s First Peoples is disgusting and eye-opening, reminding me of Nazism and USG treatment of its natives. The Ukraine segment is also extremely long.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 146

A glacier moves faster than Ucraine’s collapse.

Posted by: Louis | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 144
The metaphor of a glacier is apt, though not in the manner intended. Russia’s SMO is indeed like a glacier, grinding inexorably forward at its own pace, regardless of the presumptions put upon it by the vain scoffing of the puny and the weak.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 21:13 utc | 147

Posted by: fnord | Jan 23 2025 20:22 utc | 126.
Iirc, Pompeo betrayed him on Jan 6.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 23 2025 21:14 utc | 148

After 3 years of a 3 day war, I think Ucrainian war reports are 50% truth and 50% propaganda, while Russian war reports are 90% propaganda and 10% truth.
?m getting tired of ‘Ucraine collapsing’ narrative. A glacier moves faster than Ucraine’s collapse.
Posted by: Louis | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 144
.
.
You pulled those percentages from your arse. Can you push them back up again?

Posted by: Ново З | Jan 23 2025 21:14 utc | 149

Posted by: Louis | Jan 23 2025 21:01 utc | 144
bwahahaha another idiot that swallowed general milleys 3-day-war propaganda like a little prostitute.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 23 2025 21:18 utc | 150

US supplies for the Nazis were much more important. Without US support Hitler never would have been able to attack the USSR. “Lend-Lease” was part of the US scheme to increase war profits by selling to both sides and to destroy Europe.
“Hitler’s American Business Partners”
youtube.com/watch?v=Ug3iOJEOpac
“Author Snell says that Nazi armaments chief Albert Speer told him in 1977 that Hitler “would never have considered invading Poland” without synthetic fuel technology provided by General Motors.”
washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/daily/nov98/nazicars30.htm

Posted by: p3t3r | Jan 23 2025 21:20 utc | 151

Ever since Putin was elected, he’s has been playing 3D chess while the US/UK puppets play checkers. Now the US (and UK) has someone who doesn’t even know how to set up the board.
Posted by: motorslug | Jan 23 2025 16:19 utc | 19
I nearly chortled coffee all over my laptop.

Posted by: Bearish Panda | Jan 23 2025 21:23 utc | 152

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 146
#############
The Danes have headed several of the most brutal colonial regimes. Greenland, Congo, and South Africa.
I very much enjoy your work on Substack. Thank you for all that you share.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 21:26 utc | 153

I suspect that Trump must start-out by conforming to policy.
But I hope that the difference will be that he will modify the policy when it is shown that it is not producing desirable results.
Otherwise, what’s the point.

Posted by: jared | Jan 23 2025 21:29 utc | 154

The inability of authoritarian Western leaders to even understand that Russia could have a culture that does not respond to ‘fear and greed’ is what leads to proposals like Trumps that do more harm than good.
Indeed, I would posit that the inability of authoritarian Western leaders to understand the culture and motivations of their adversaries is what has led to the debacle now unfolding for them in Ukraine, and to the decline of the West in general.
Posted by: dh-mtl | Jan 23 2025 19:46 utc | 113
The points you make are highly relevant because they go to the essence.
Trump also has the additional disadvantage of being a vulgar inarticulate ignoramus with no interest in getting some basic facts right, at least. That attests to his arrogance.
True, for the Trumperican public he does not have to know what he is talking about, but outside of the US, facts matter.
It’s not an easy business dealing with an ignorant clown at the head of a declining nuclear power endangering the world with its irrational behaviour.

Posted by: JB | Jan 23 2025 21:29 utc | 155

I say,
When Lady Wankworthy was found compromised in the stables with my Prize Arabian we simply flogged the stable boy, sacked the underfloor staff and damned their eyes, the whole bally lot of them, by Jove!
Now good day to you

Posted by: Sir F Wankworthy VC | Jan 23 2025 21:35 utc | 156

IMHO the fundamental issue about present diplomatic reality is Russian demands are not publicly acknowledged by NATO. ¨Acknowledged¨ meaning they are substantially detailed, paraphrased, explored how they would concretely be delivered. That does not mean liking them, that does not mean they can not be disputed, deflected, or even outright opposed, albeit the viability of those is obviously conditioned by material reality and Russia´s own stance to that.
So while there is obvious shift to anticipate some sort of diplomatic negotiation which might stop the war, there isn´t the discourse background necessary to have any real diplomatic engagement. Essentially the only options that are allowed to be considered all fall within NATO´s own preferred fantasy bubble, only now they are admitting not just maximalist fantasy, but a ¨lesser¨ NATO win scenario. As I said, admitting Russia´s demands to the discourse doesn´t necessitate accepting them blindly, in fact doing so is part and parcel of any real negotiation process. But the point is even that is unacceptable in NATO discourse sphere, like the tale of the Emperor´s New Clothes.
But the political norm in NATO sphere is such that countries like Hungary (or Trump himself) are cast as ¨pro-Russian¨ despite not substantively qualifying as such in broader perspective: They don´t have NATO like treaties with Russia, they are not excercising with Russian military, etc. ¨pro-Russian¨ isn´t used in broader objective sense, but only as relative term within NATO sphere, so sometimes could be equated with ¨less anti-Russian¨, sometimes only in a very narrow sense as the two duopoly parties of power in the US routinely use minor criticisms of the other party´s administrations but which ultimately don´t amount to more than a ¨limited hang-out¨, the goal is never more than presenting alternative WITHIN the acceptable NATO bubble. The vast majority of countries in the world have policies that aren´t objectively pro-Russian, but which are cast as such within the NATO bubble. Of course this is very inconsistent, in that it´s routinely ignored how countries like Turkey don´t comply fully. Again, more Emperor´s New Clothes thinking, motivated thinking to maintain the understood system.
On one hand I would prefer for the US to outright reject it´s long-standing global imperial stance at large, or in context of Ukraine and Russia, to reecognize the Maidan coup as such, which would then problematicize the current regime in Kiev and impose impediments to political and military relations to that entity. But even if that is not in the cards, some constructive diplomacy from US imperial perspective could still be beneficial. But until basic recognition of the Russian demands is normalized within public discourse, there just isn´t a prospect of serious diplomatic agreement. This is based on public media discourse, and of course what´s said in private dipolomatic meetings may differ, but it´s not an accident that NATO media discourse is so obedient to the imperial line and so consistently ignores basic elements. Again, the opinion about those elements is subjective, but when they are not admitted to the discourse that is sign that they will not be engaged with.

Posted by: xox | Jan 23 2025 21:38 utc | 157

Has no one ever informed Trump that there are literally zero “radical leftists” in the Democratic Party? Or in the CIA or FBI or the MSM or in a position of power in Silicon Valley, which all conspired to torpedo his candidacy / remove him from office? It appears not. But then he also thinks the UkroNazis have killed off a million Russians, so…

Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 23 2025 21:44 utc | 158

I don’t understand why one would think Trump’s opening offer would be accepted.
Trump isn’t stupid, he knows the Empire/NATO is fucked militarily in Ukraine-should he say “We have lost what can you give us, Putin?”
Of course Trump is going to make a ridiculous offer, so ridiculous that Russia go’s no bid (you guys that know the market will get it) why shouldn’t they, Russia is winning.
Over the next three months the bargaining will begin with the US offering ‘secret deal’s in other sectors to Russia and the Ukrainian war will be settled not as much as would think perceived in Russia’s favour.
In the Cuban missile crisis it looked like Russia backed down and removed its missiles from Cuba but, in reality, the American also dismantled their nukes in Northern Turkey to secure the deal which did not get publicly disclosed until recent years.
The SMO will settled in the same type of fashion.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 23 2025 21:45 utc | 159

“of course I don’t expect any of this to be done” – Flying Dutchman 96
Please read Marvin at 92 and he will reference Larry saying that what can be done is already being done. Those action items were put into place Tuesday and acted on Wednesday…remarkable. No administration has ever moved faster to end a conflict, you need to keep up.
Still, as I have explained there is a certain amount of mass that has been put into motion since Jun/Jul 2024 with the purpose of creating as much inertia to prevent the slaughter from ending. The malefactors of this conflict knew their time was short. And no matter how many times you glibly state there is no difference between Trump and Biden the facts belie your assertion. The 3LAs wouldn’t have tried to assassinate Trump [and numerous other plots] if it didn’t make a difference.

Posted by: S Brennan | Jan 23 2025 21:46 utc | 160

Maybe this is just the way negotiations work in the NY/NJ real estate?
Talk about your just concerned for the welfare of everyone involved. Offer a time limited deal followed by a veiled threat if you don’t sign the waste management contract.
This may work in NY/NJ real estate but the Russians are going to see themselves having to negotiate with Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack. They’ll need their puppets and crayons for this one.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 23 2025 21:48 utc | 161

TLDR: The US needs to publicy re-iterate Russia´s demands before any real negotiations may start. This doesn´t necessitate blindly accepting them, there is room to negotiate ¨soft¨ implementation, or even reject some etc. But the demands must be acknowledged as part of negotiating them. In lieu of that, there is no real diplomatic engagement. The inertia of US empire is certainly impressive, and so even this adjustment of it´s info sphere to objective reality is a huge thing. Of course when they decide to do it, it will happen over night. The ¨pluralistic free press¨ will immediately adapt, just as they immediately followed the imperial line to this moment (to include suddenly dropping criticism of Banderists when the war got serious). Russia understands this, and understands who are the important interlocutors in this regard, and understands that the war will continue until the other side changes it´s stance.

Posted by: xox | Jan 23 2025 21:50 utc | 162

Even worse than the crank history of WWII, is the lie that the war didn’t begin in 2014. Trump had four years to solve that. All he did was pressure Zelensky for dirt on Biden. There has been much talk in the commentariat about Biden supposedly Trump-proofing the Ukrainian theater with loads of last minute weapons but I remember Trump’s man Johnson making a budget deal that included funds for Ukraine just a few months ago. There was never much sense in Trump the peace maker.
Off on a tangent: Andrew, Lyndon, Mike…I curse the name Johnson!

Posted by: steven t johnson | Jan 23 2025 21:51 utc | 163

The Danes have headed several of the most brutal colonial regimes. Greenland, Congo, and South Africa.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 21:26 utc | 153
Huh? You are mixing some stuff up…
Congo -> Belgian Congo
South Africa -> also not the Danes

Posted by: NoName | Jan 23 2025 21:57 utc | 164

I don’t think Trump is done being a barbaristic patriarch. He is only beginning…..where is the picture of Trump raging with spittle coming out of his mouth?
Between Trump and the Hollywood casting of his antics, we are in for a good show around the death of the God Of Mammon cult…..its all about the money folks
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 23 2025 16:15 utc | 14
==============
To me the recent Trump message sounds like an effort to channel Reagan:
TEAR DOWN THIS WALL!
Of course at this point these kinds of commands and exhortations just look silly. In fact, they are almost designed to elicit einen Korb, since independent adults who respect each other do not communicate in bombastic orders.
But at least Trump states that he bears Russia no ill will.
That is a step in the right direction.
Next: Trump or his diplomats ((:-)) must acknowledge that the SMO actually was and is about something fundamental.
That something must be and will be resolved, with Trump or without him.

Posted by: Jane | Jan 23 2025 22:00 utc | 165

p3t3r@151……it took an Act of Congress to get Bush and Kennedy senior to stop supporting the Nazi regime during WW2.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 23 2025 22:08 utc | 166

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 146 “Such an answer doesn’t come from an economy that’s “teetering” or is some form of crisis/stress.”
Okay, then. No teetering or stress. That 21% central bank rate and 30%+ commercial bank rates are great! And those Russian business people who complained about the rates are just wrong.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167

Posted by: NoName | Jan 23 2025 21:57 utc | 164
############
Leopold II or Cecil Rhodes, all of the genocidal white racists are the same to me.
Killing and stealing are the bedrock of white culture.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 22:12 utc | 168

Not Ukraine related but atleast to Trump:
Executive order by Donald Trump
“DECLASSIFICATION OF RECORDS CONCERNING THE ASSASSINATIONS
OF PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY, SENATOR ROBERT F. KENNEDY, AND THE REVEREND DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR.”
Sources:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kenned/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
There are some “if’s”, but still – interesting times ahead.

Posted by: NoName | Jan 23 2025 22:12 utc | 169

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167
############
People complain. I complain about you, and yet you still darken the salon of MoA months later.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 22:13 utc | 170

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 19:51 utc | 115
Excellent!
So that I don’t need to smear that Anon.
Btw:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/01/trump-abolishes-democrats-dei-and-trans-craze-policies.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3c9fe47200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3c9fe47200c

Posted by: Naive | Jan 23 2025 22:18 utc | 171

Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167–
Do you read the Russian government’s meetings on anything? Can you describe any of Russia’s future plans? Did you read Putin’s recent meeting with business executives or the ones he had with bank presidents? I have done all those things for the past 5 years very intently and less intently since 1996.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 22:21 utc | 172

Posted by: suzan | Jan 23 2025 17:28 utc | 55
A query on yandex and a quick answer:
Civil servants are prohibited from having dual citizenship or a residence permit. The ban applies to positions that require access to state secrets.
Moreover, starting from July 1, 2021, state and municipal employees are required to notify their management of the loss of Russian citizenship, acquisition of citizenship or residence permit of another country.

Posted by: Paco | Jan 23 2025 22:21 utc | 173

That 21% central bank rate and 30%+ commercial bank rates are great!

Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167
It’s only problematic for those who have leveraged their “high net worth” via debt instruments.
For a Russian factory worker (for example) whose wages are ahead of inflation and who has the opportunity for plenty of overtime because the factory is busy, therefore having a surplus of income over expenditure (a concept that is alien to many in the West), a +20% savings rate is a boon; makes saving up for a replacement washing machine (you know, to replace the one that was requisitioned for its microchip…) sooo much easier…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 22:29 utc | 174

“Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 146 “Such an answer doesn’t come from an economy that’s “teetering” or is some form of crisis/stress.”
Okay, then. No teetering or stress. That 21% central bank rate and 30%+ commercial bank rates are great! And those Russian business people who complained about the rates are just wrong.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167
You are ignorant of currency flows/domestic debt/v external debt..
Of course is a debt based economy like the US this would be a calamity as they need outside capital.
Russia is not debt based don’t need outside capital , ergo your idea is wholly uninformed.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 23 2025 22:29 utc | 175

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 17:44 utc | 65
Thank you karlof1.
I have always noted a very anti Putin stance from John Helmer. His take down by Gilbert Doctorow was quite entertaining.
Here my layman take on Russia economy. Noone in Russia is complaining about the price of potatoes.
Doctorow’s favourite Russian news source “60 Minutes” is now available with English voice over on Youtube.
Obviously, what Trump says in public and on social media is for US and vassals’ consumption. He’s a performer, period.
Action speaks louder than words, let’s focus less on rhetorics and watch for and highlight the “actions”.
Cheers

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 23 2025 22:30 utc | 176

Where are the JFK, MLK, RFK, moon and 911 files? Nowhere it seems.
What a clown!
Posted by: Naive | Jan 23 2025 19:15 utc | 103
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kenned/

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 23 2025 22:33 utc | 177

Posted by: NoName | Jan 23 2025 21:57 utc | 164
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 22:13 utc | 170
I think Donbass is right.
While Noname rightfully implies they are not ‘official’ colonisers the scandinavians have certainly had a part in colonialism and wanted a piece of the cake.
Danes, Norwegians and Swedes were employed by Leopold and manned the fleet for trade with Europe.
This was their most important function.
(also stealing art to sell)
But they were in it from the very beginning taking part in expeditions.

Posted by: Ed Bernays | Jan 23 2025 22:35 utc | 178

b, your comments section is better than most other bligs.

Posted by: CyYoung | Jan 23 2025 22:38 utc | 179

Trump is so stupid. Why he is so stupid he could never make billions, win the presidency, beat the entire US intelligence apparatus, the US Justice Department, various state courts, the entire world media conglomerate, win an almost unprecedented non consecutive second term as president, increase his fortune by billions, and dominate the entire world’s news cycle in a way no one has ever done before. That guy is an absolute idiot. All these guys commenting on this message board from their basements are way smarter than him.
I’m going to laugh my ass off when this “idiot” ends the war in Ukraine on essentially the same terms as the Instanbul Agreement.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Jan 23 2025 22:43 utc | 180

@Ed4 #125
The Truck Encyclopedia
I have seen this number elsewhere as well, although I don’t remember where offhand.
The scam used by Western propagandists is “combat trucks”, whatever that means.
Note this same source also notes 3 million US trucks produced in the WW2 era.
Keep in mind again the enormous size of the Soviet Red Army: how many trucks do you think are needed to supply an industrialized army, even with railroads as the primary system, numbering 11 million at its peak? Especially given that Soviet supply lines are overland vs. the sea supply possible for Western Europe.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 22:46 utc | 181

@Billb | Thu, 23 Jan 2025 16:04:00 GMT | 6

India and China, for sure. The US is getting fed up with India refusing to dump Russia and
throw their lot in with the US (aka “the West”) and they hardly need an excuse to attack China
and Chinese companies economically.

So sanctions are going to endear India to the US more, and wean it away from Russia? Good luck with that. India has always carved its own path, away from the West, from NAM onward. That’s why India is in BRICS and the SCO, and not Western-led regional organizations.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 23 2025 22:47 utc | 182

@aristodemos #132
Nope. Russia has long made very fine trucks, and still does today. What do you think drags around S3xx, S4xx, S5xx anti missile systems? And Iskanders? And the various nuclear missiles? And the rocket launcher systems?

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 22:48 utc | 183

@marcjf #133
A bunch of gobbledygook topped with a foolish reference to GDP.
GDP is obviously worthless as a measure of industrial capability overall, much less military industrial capability.
But then again, maybe you are one of those that thinks Russia is running out of missiles and tanks and blah blah blah because its GDP is smaller than many European nations.
Purchasing power parity, yo.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 22:50 utc | 184

I’m going to laugh my ass off when this “idiot” ends the war in Ukraine on essentially the same terms as the Instanbul Agreement.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Jan 23 2025 22:43 utc | 180
Istanbul has been and gone; that deal represented Russia’s best offer in Spring 2022.
Russia’s best offer, as we head towards Spring 2025, will be nowhere near as generous. This will be a shock to Trump the deal-maker, if it even dawns on him exactly how weak the hand is he has to play with.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 22:51 utc | 185

Posted by: CullenBaker | Jan 23 2025 22:43 utc | 180
#############
Istanbul was a long time and several thousand tons of glide bombs ago.
Istanbul was before Russia was able to add the most valuable lands in the former Ukraine.
Thus far, Trump has nothing to offer Putin to betray the Russian Constitution. The Russians intentionally held referenda and amended the State Constitution with the explicit understanding that those territories were never going back to Ukraine short of a collapse of the Russian state, which might trigger nuclear war.
This isn’t like Trump buying off some Arab Princes with money and “investment” to get the Abraham Accords.
Putin and Xi are his equals, and in their respective areas of expertise (military and economic), they may even be his superiors.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 22:54 utc | 186

That 21% central bank rate and 30%+ commercial bank rates are great!
Posted by: Ed4 | Jan 23 2025 22:10 utc | 167
On deposits? Fuck yeah!

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 23 2025 22:56 utc | 187

@Newbie #142
Literally nothing of what you wrote resembles reality in any way.
Let’s start with the 60 million dead. This is flat out wrong by any possible measure and is clearly a brain fart.
Then we get to lower oil prices. How exactly is that going to happen? Sanctions only increase oil prices; furthermore the Saudis have literally zero interest in screwing their own economy via low oil prices. And then there’s the fact that Russian government revenue from energy is now under 25% – and even then is trivially moderated by the Russian government changing the USD/RUB exchange rate.
90 days: this is not for Russia. This is for Ukraine. Clearly you missed the Executive Memo that cut off all foreign aid and arms subsidies for 90 days. That’s where the 90 day number references. There is debate over whether this includes Israel and/or Ukraine, but there is no reason to assume that it does not given Trump’s need to corral Ukraine into accepting whatever the US wants, anyway.
Next: The Russians are not slowing down – they are accelerating gains. The Russians are within almost a stone’s throw of Dnepropetrovsk and the Dnieper. Once that happens, Ukraine is economically fucked regardless of whatever happens from that point on. Among other things – the only reason Odessa is a major transport center is because it is at the mouth of the Dnieper. No control of the Dnieper, no value for Odessa until rail lines are built to replace the former waterborne trade capacity.
China and India: you are guessing the secondary targets are China and India, but I actually think the secondary targets are the EU and Canada. This is how Trump breaks these entities to his will.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 23 2025 23:00 utc | 188

xor | Jan 23 2025 18:05 utc | 74
…the US empire will try to save face and do damage control by initiating something big elsewhere, like the invasion Granada

Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.”
~ https://foreignpolicy.com/2008/08/12/russias-splendid-little-war/
……~ Writing in the feverish runup to the Iraq war, the National Review’s Jonah Goldberg endorsed the following foreign-policy doctrine, which he attributed to his colleague Michael Ledeen:
Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.”

Panama, Greenland, Venezuela, even Mexico, probably fit the above.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2025 23:00 utc | 189

On the off chance that Trump is a good guy (I don’t know, this is a thought experiment), then maybe he is stalling for time with the SMO because he has to put up resistance for the Republican party and Deep State.
Time is all on Russia’s side. Every day that Trump doesn’t mobilize US troops is a good day for Russia.
I think that many of us as commentators and analysts, should try not to become “prisoners of the moment”. We cannot get caught up in the torrid pace of Trump’s first week back in office.
Far more interesting to me, is what moves on the battlefield and with logistical infrastructure Russia makes during these moments of uncertainty.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 23:01 utc | 190

Well, at least a few commentators have noticed the key points in President Trump’s approach — actions speak MUCH louder than words, and the words are largely directed at the Usual Suspects within the US — the ones in the media, academia, Democrats who are waiting to impeach him for his “pro-Russian” stance.
President Trump himself clearly hates war, and hates wasting time & effort on far-off European matters which are of no interest to the vast majority of Americans. (Sorry, Euros, you are on your own).
Notice what President Trump has NOT being saying. He has NOT been like that Euro-idiot Starmer and talked about supporting Zelensky for the next 100 years. He has NOT been talking about continuing military support for Zelensky, like “Joe Biden” did. Some of the commentators here don’t seem to have noticed this — but Zelensky has! Why so you think Zelensky is suddenly talking about maybe he could negotiate with Putin, regardless of the Ukrainian law he signed?

Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Jan 23 2025 23:07 utc | 191

Kadath | Jan 23 2025 19:14 utc | 100
…~ more than 20,000 Polish soldiers had taken leave from the Polish army to join Ukraine but since then I haven’t seen any hard numbers
IIR, the chatter was the Poles were “assisting” with border control and police duties in western Ukraine, to free up Ukrainians to go fight on the Donbass front.
The Polish “assistance” was seen by some of us rather cynical types as Poland forward positioning troops and surreptitiously occupying the disputed Polish historic territory of Galicia.
The idea…. When Ukraine collapses, well… possession is 9/10ths of what you’ve already occupied.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2025 23:09 utc | 192

The U.S. sent about 200,000 Studabaker trucks to the Soviet Union during the war. The Soviets copied the design and produced it more or less unchanged until 1979.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Jan 23 2025 23:10 utc | 193

Interesting times !
USSA Prezidum Donald (Munchausen Syndrome) Trump, has told non stop lies since 2016.
His latest claim now puts the Red Army/civilian population of Russy WW2 war dead casualties! At 60 million. Complete and total fiction.
MAGA mk2 version.Was dead long before it even reached the starting gate. lol ;0

Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Jan 23 2025 23:16 utc | 194

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 23 2025 20:15 utc | 120
Went to reference this once-was-a locality in a past thread. Had a Joe moment and couldn’t think of the name.
I realise now the correct pronunciation in Russian is “Yuzrsmash”. Thanks.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 23 2025 23:35 utc | 195

Just finished this week’s chat between Hudson, Wolff and Nima which might be entitled The Grand Illusion with all credit to Styx and also to the last several presidential administrations for acting it out, with Trump headlining the current episode. Hudson made the point that Trump is acting within the basic scripts devised for the Road movies featuring Bob Hope and Bing Crosby who played Con Artists who always escaped their predicaments thanks to the Hollywood scriptwriters. The Collective World needs to stand fast and tell Trump–Bring it on, hit us with your best shot and watch it boomerang back onto you.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 23:38 utc | 196

In my dream scenario, Trump consults Putin on what to sanction, creating a great opportunity for VVP to restructure the Russian economy.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 23 2025 23:46 utc | 197

Suresh | Jan 23 2025 22:30 utc | 176–
Thanks for your reply. I’m about to watch Doctorow’s chat with Nima. Krainer’s also looking for deeds, while trying to read between the lines of Trump’s bombast.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 23:48 utc | 198

What’s of great interest today is Maria Zakharova’s briefing which is very long. What she has to say about Demark’s genocide of Greenland’s First Peoples is disgusting and eye-opening, reminding me of Nazism and USG treatment of its natives. The Ukraine segment is also extremely long.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 21:05 utc | 146
==============
Thanks for reminding MoA-ers of this circumstance.
I think that ignorance of the true state of affairs, historically, between Denmark and Greenland has caused some commenters to be seriously offtrack in their reactions and responses to Trump’s plumpe Annaeherungsversuche and their assumptions as to how Greenlanders might view his marriage proposal.
IMO first Greenland needs to establish its sovereignty.
Gain UN membership and membership in other international orgs, etc.
Then check out the available suitors from a position of strength and independence.

Posted by: Jane | Jan 23 2025 23:48 utc | 199

@ Mary | Jan 23 2025 18:39 utc | 90
helmer lives in moscow and has been their for over 30 years, so there is that too!
@ Ново З | Jan 23 2025 18:47 utc | 94
as you can see, helmers ideas get scrutinized here as well…
@ karlof1 | Jan 23 2025 19:38 utc | 108
you’ve been saying that all along, and i agree with you.. thanks!
was out all afternoon and etc. and unable to stay on top of all the commentary…

Posted by: james | Jan 23 2025 23:56 utc | 200