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Trump And Ukraine Should Concede
The Ukrainian commander in chief General Syrksi seems to have given up. Recent remarks of his suggest that he no longer sees a way to win the war. He is now simply waiting for the politicians to concede.
The Ukrainian military has recently started to move thousands of air-defense soldiers and logistic personnel into the infantry. People who were taught to detect, analyze and fight aerial targets get pushed into roles for which they did not receive training and are no qualified.
Syrski is justifying this as the only way to keep a sufficient number of men in front line trenches:
The army chief stressed that his order prohibits the transfer of highly qualified personnel who have undergone training and specialize in aircraft maintenance.
"Clearly, these are invested funds, specialists who have experience and are practically irreplaceable, on the one hand," said Syrskyi.
“On the other hand, we fundamentally need personnel on the front, and we must maintain an adequate number of troops in our mechanized brigades. Unfortunately, mobilization capabilities do not meet this need.”
According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are "reasonably" reducing the logistical component and part of the support in the military, as well as those involved in maintenance.
"Therefore, the headquarters know these tasks; they have done the calculations," Syrskyi stated.
The number of freshly mobilized soldiers is lower than the number of losses. The military thus has to start to 'eat itself'. The problems being caused by this will not be visible immediately but they will over time destroy the armies core functionality.
People have done all they can to avoid a service at the frontline. Commanders have been bribed to allow for their soldiers to do duty behind the front lines. Others deserted. There are thus plenty of superfluous logistic and headquarter staff that can be moved to put up a more serious resistance.
But in few week those reserves will have emptied too. Logistics will start to slow down and air defenses will fail to defend against even the most primitive drone attacks.
Syrski sees this coming. He knows that defending the country will not win the war (machine translation):
Ukraine will not be able to win the war while on the defensive.
This was stated by the commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky on the air of the telethon.
"You know, no matter how much you defend, you will still retreat. And we are forced to hold the defense and concentrate our forces, in fact, to keep along this front line," said Syrsky.
Just two months ago Syrski was sounding more optimistic. He was still dreaming of and announced further counterattacks (machine translation):
The APU will not only stand on the defensive, but also counterattack.
This statement was made by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky at a recent meeting with military bloggers. Details of the statement were given in his Telegram channel by the participant of the meeting, military Kirill Sazonov.
"Pokrovskoe and Kurakhovskoe directions. The situation is difficult. But it's better than it was a week ago. Then it was really critical. Some units were retreating, leaving their positions, but there was no one to close them. Indeed, a crisis situation. But the issue is resolved, the reserves are deployed, the enemy's plans are thwarted. Alexander Syrsky's position: we must stop the enemy. But victory is impossible if the APU will work only in defense. We must seize the initiative and counterattack. We must and will. Where and who-you will see, " wrote Sazonov.
Kurakhove has since fallen and Pokrovsk is about to be surrounded. No further Ukrainian initiative has been seen.
One can not counterattack when one lacks the troops to even fill up the front lines.
Syrski may finally come to grips with the 'winning' charade the Biden administration has all along played with Ukraine:
When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, President Joe Biden set three objectives for the U.S. response. Ukraine’s victory was never among them. The phrase the White House used to describe its mission at the time—supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—was intentionally vague. It also raised the question: As long as it takes to do what?
…
The future that Zelensky and many of his countrymen have in mind is one in which Russia is defeated. But in rallying the world to the fight, the implication Biden embedded in his own goals was that defending Ukraine against Russia is not the same as defeating Russia. So it is not surprising if that goal remains far from Zelensky’s reach.
A victorious Ukraine has never been an aim or priority in the proxy war the Biden administration has waged against Russia. Even its main 'diplomat' has never shown interest in peace (archived):
Mr. Blinken was less a peacemaker than a war strategist. Immersed in details of military hardware and battlefield conditions, he often argued against more risk-averse Pentagon officials in favor of sending powerful American weapons to Ukraine.
And when the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark A. Milley, suggested in late 2022 that Ukraine should capitalize on battlefield gains by seeking peace talks with Moscow, Mr. Blinken insisted the fight should go on.
There is hope now, though only a slight one, that the incoming Trump administration will disavow the war in Ukraine and shut it down without any delay or escalation. The danger of proceeding otherwise is for Trump to get hooked to the war like Nixon became to Vietnam:
[Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon] advocates ending America’s all-important military aid to Kyiv, but fears his old boss is going to fall into a trap being set by an unlikely alliance of the U.S. defense industry, the Europeans and even some of Bannon’s own friends, whom he argues are now misguided. These include Keith Kellogg, a retired U.S. general who is Trump’s pick to be special envoy to Ukraine and Russia.
“If we aren’t careful, it will turn into Trump’s Vietnam. That’s what happened to Richard Nixon. He ended up owning the war and it went down as his war not Lyndon Johnson’s,” Bannon said.
If it would fully engage the U.S. might be able to delay the outcome of the war in Ukraine. But it will, like in Vietnam, be unable to change the inevitable result.
Trump should concede that Russia has won the war, remove all support from Ukraine, pull back the Europeans and wash his hands over the outcome.
This would give Ukraine a chance to again bind its fate to the east.
Today, Russia’s Security Council met and released part of its discussion, which is very rare and was clearly meant for those with prying eyes:
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Colleagues, good afternoon.
Today we will talk about some points related to the regions that are sensitive to us, with the development of the situation in these regions.
Sergei Viktorovich, what is happening in the States now? As I understand it, today the inauguration of the President-elect should take place again. You are welcome.
Sergey Lavrov: Colleagues,
Indeed, the reports of the world media, social networks are overflowing with information from Washington since yesterday, when Trump and his team arrived in the capital for today’s inauguration, which is scheduled for 20:00 Moscow time. The details are well known, but in parallel with the preparations for this ceremony, speculation, of course, is growing, analytical calculations, forecasts about how this will affect various conflicts in various regions of the world.
There are plenty of these conflicts, including in the Middle East, where the situation, despite the signing of the agreement between Israel and Hamas, does not at all convince that stability has been achieved. Warnings are also heard from one side that Israel is violating the agreements, and Israel is warning Hamas that they are also not fully implementing what they have signed up to.
And, of course, apart from the Gaza Strip itself, the Palestinian problem is not disappearing. We remember how Donald Trump, in his first “coming”, promoted a concept that is fundamentally different from the Arab Peace Initiative and involves the normalization of relations between Israel and all Arabs…
Yemen, Libya and Syria, of course, after the events that took place a month ago – all this makes the Middle East and the Middle East a very turbulent region. Let’s not forget about Afghanistan, where the Americans are also trying to restore their presence to some extent, using neighbouring countries for this, they are thinking about returning their military infrastructure there.
I am saying all this in relation to the policy pursued by the previous administration. Therefore, of course, everyone is wondering what the official approaches promoted by the Trump administration will be. Unofficially, many members of his team, he himself, have repeatedly spoken out both on the Middle East and on the Ukrainian crisis, which Trump considers one of the priorities of his foreign policy activity with an eye to resolving it, make it clear that they understand some aspects of the Russian position, for example, regarding the unacceptability of Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
But all this, I repeat once again, statements are estimated, “shooting”, sounding on the eve of the official entry of the new President into office and the approval of its members Administration.
Therefore, much depends on the United States, primarily due to the fact that the Europeans and Asian allies–-the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand–-are fully guided by the position of the White House, and in this sense, they are waiting to see what this position will be in its final form. But also, of course, developing countries, countries and regions where the United States can play a positive role and can even continue the policy of the previous administration to preserve the potential for conflict in the hope of extracting some benefit from the ongoing crises. At least, this was the policy of the United States for many years under a variety of administrations. Therefore, guessing now is a thankless task.
We are open to contacts. We have repeatedly confirmed this in our answers to relevant questions, with the understanding that we will have serious proposals from our colleagues who at one time froze or even broke off relations with the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin: You mentioned the Middle East. There has indeed been an exchange there and some of the hostages have been released, but among the remaining hostages there is another person with dual citizenship, with Russian citizenship. I would like to ask you through the Foreign Ministry and other colleagues from other agencies to work on this issue, not to forget about it and to do everything to ensure that our citizens are released.
Sergey Lavrov: We are working.
Vladimir Putin: As for the events in the United States Indeed, Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States is taking place in Washington Indeed, the pre-election period was difficult for Mr Trump in all respects: he and even his family members were constantly under severe pressure, and it came to attempts to make an attempt on his life. But he showed courage and won a landslide victory in the election.
And we see statements by the newly elected President of the United States and members of his team about their desire to restore direct contacts with Russia, which were interrupted through no fault of ours by the outgoing administration. We also hear his statements about the need to do everything to prevent a third world war. Of course, we welcome this attitude and congratulate the President-elect of the United States of America on taking office.
I would like to emphasise that we have never refused dialogue, we have always been ready to maintain smooth relations of cooperation with any US administration, and I have said this more than once. We believe that the dialogue will be based on an equal and mutually respectful basis, given the significant role played by our countries on a number of key issues on the global agenda, including strengthening strategic stability and security.
We are also open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing here is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, which we have talked about many times, this is the most important thing. As for the settlement of the situation itself, I want to emphasize again: its goal should not be a brief truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament in order to continue the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all peoples who live in this region. But we, of course, will fight for the interests of Russia, for the interests of the Russian people. This, in fact, is the goal and meaning of the special military operation. [My Emphasis]
IMO, that was a positive message sent by Putin, while Lavrov emphasized the unknown nature of what Trump will attempt. At the moment, Russia sees the incoming team in a more positive light than Biden’s. I’ve written several articles dealing with the facts Trump faces as he assumes office, my most recent accentuates Medvedev’s note that relations of any sort with the Outlaw US Empire aren’t needed, “Medvedev: And quite frankly, it is not clear whether it is needed at all…: The second “it” is “full normalization” of relations with the Outlaw US Empire.”
Putin’s words demonstrate there’s another pole in the spectrum of Russian opinion about the need for relations with the Outlaw US Empire, with both poles based on the overall reality of the geopolitical and geoeconomic situation. Will what is essentially the UK/US Cold War strategy of containing Russia–now Eurasia–be continued by Trump or will some variant be pursued given Congressional attitude and the Empire’s very real weaknesses seems to be the pertinent question. An example being the immediate need to raise the debt ceiling or completely abolishing it as Trump desires.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 20 2025 19:26 utc | 68
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