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Syria – New York Times Claims Mysterious Coalition Installed Dictatorship
Here is how the New York times announced the installation of a fundamentalist Sunni-Islamic dictatorship in Syria:
Rebel Leader Who Overthrew al-Assad Is Declared Syria’s President (archived) – New York Times, Jan 29 2025
The new leadership of the country said the rebel coalition leader, Ahmed al-Shara, would serve as president during a transitional period.
The rebel coalition that seized control of Syria last month appointed its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, as president of the country to preside over a transitional period, Syrian state media reported on Wednesday.
A spokesman for the coalition, Col. Hassan Abdel Ghani, also declared that the Constitution had been nullified and the legislature and army formed under the country’s deposed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, were dissolved, according to the state news agency, SANA.
The declarations amounted to the country’s first official steps toward establishing a new government after the rebel coalition led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or H.T.S., swept into the capital, Damascus, last month in a lightning offensive that toppled Mr. al-Assad. Mr. al-Shara, who led that coalition, has since been serving as the country’s de facto leader.
This is the first time that I have read of a "coalition" in Syria. Who but the al-Qaida aligned Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) under its brutal mass murderer Ahmed al-Shara (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani) is part of it?
Contrast the NY Times take with the one by the Washington Post:
Syria’s de facto leader declares himself president, abolishes constitution – Washington Post, Jan 29 2025
Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on Wednesday abolished the country’s constitution and declared himself president during a meeting of armed factions in Damascus.
The former rebel leader will “assume the duties of the Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic and represent it in international forums,” commander Hassan Abdelghani said, according to the Syrian state news agency SANA.
No mysterious 'coalition' in this one.
I don’t think it very useful to continue wringing one’s hands over the fall of the Ba`thist regime in Syria, nor strongly picking sides on the internal Syrian conflict, whose outcome remains unclear and whose violence is far from over.
The portrayal of the downfall of the Asad regime as a loss for Russia, Iran, and the resistance is overdrawn, and much less is it s victory for the US or Israel. Israel cannot be friendly with any Syrian regime because of many reasons, not the least of which is Israel’s continuing responsibility for promoting civil war in Syria. That Israel took even a little more land and drove out still more Syrians from their towns makes it utterly impossible for any Syrian regime to be friendly to Israel. As for the US, it could have had friendlier relations with Syria if not for the US’s subordination to Israeli policy in the region, so it too cannot be friendly with Syria, unless a total foreign policy revolution happens in Washington.
The new Syrian regime, whatever the deeper desires of its leadership, if it wants to establish its power and remain in office at all, has first of all to consolidate its hold over the country, a need having numerous obstacles. First, it has really to secure the former Ba`th-controlled areas; has it done that yet? It does also have the problem of its own disparate elements, compounded by the fact that the whole HTS forces that had holed up in Idlib are completely inadequate for controlling the country as a whole. Thus, they will have to find partners outside of their own groups to support them and enable them to rule. What has happened to the former state? Has it just disappeared and fled? Probably not completely, but the HTS people will have to cooperate with at least some elements in it in order to establish themselves. If they do not do so, they will never be able to establish their rule in the first place, much less perpetuate it.
Then there is the alleged revenge taking, which may or may not be happening widely. The `Alawi minority of 11% or so of the whole population and having a geographical concentration in the coastal region may or may not be targeted, but even if it is, it is too big to just dispose of. The Druzes are likewise heterodox from the Salafi Sunni point of view, but some kind of arrangement may be possible with them. It seems obvious at this point that the new regime is trying to be conciliatory, rather like the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021.
Then, after all that, there is the greater task of trying to reunite the areas of the country that are under other rule. The biggest of these clearly is the Kurdish-controlled area, which includes a lot of towns the Kurds have expelled the Arabic speakers from. For that region, there exists the possibility that Turkey will attack the Kurds, but that might merely extend the area of control of Turkey and its immediate Syrian proxy organization, the Syrian National Army, which is distinct from the HTS. However, yesterday the Turkish foreign minister stated that the SNA would be integrated into the new Syrian armed forces. So it would seem likely that dealing with the Kurds would be the next problem on the agenda, whether trying to suppress them by a violent attack or instead making some kind of deal with them.
All this explains why the new Syrian regime will not be doing anything about Israel immediately. But, eventually, it will have to. Israel only wants division in Syria, and if that is solved by the new regime reuniting the rest of the country, Israel will most certainly be hostile. Whether such a damaged Syria can carry on some kind of military campaign against Israel remains to be seen and is probably unlikely, as the Ba`thist regime, even when it was in control, did not do so after 1973.
The new regime also does not have much outside support and will need to rebuild the country from scratch. What is does have is mainly Turkey, with which it is perforce now aligned. It may also have the approval of Qatar. Alignment with Saudi Arabia and the UAE is dubious because of the claimed connection of the HTS with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Posted by: Cabe | Jan 30 2025 21:09 utc | 62
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