News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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December 22, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-306
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Comments
Simplicius’ take on kherson Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 13:36 utc | 2 @Tim 731 – nonsense. As with a meteorite, the speed is increased by gravity in the direction of flight. The energy of the drive is only needed to reach the top speed and altitude, not after that. Posted by: Tim | Dec 22 2024 13:43 utc | 3 Ukraine Weekly Update, 20th December 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-731 Posted by: The Busker | Dec 22 2024 13:47 utc | 4
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/34515 Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2024 13:48 utc | 5
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/133976 Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2024 13:56 utc | 6 Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2024 13:48 utc | 5 Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 13:36 utc | 2 6 – Oscar Jenkins looks like he hasn’t had a square meal in a while. Is 404 running out of rations? Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 22 2024 14:58 utc | 9 Jenkins talked about being in Kramatorsk, so I presume he was captured somewhere on the Donbass front. Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 22 2024 15:03 utc | 10 Here’s the story on Oscar Jenkins as published in Latvian news. Posted by: PassionateProgressiv | Dec 22 2024 15:38 utc | 11 The TG channel Ukraine Leaks reports via Ukraine border service that 150k people have left Ukraine within 24 hours. Not many people have come back. Posted by: unimperator | Dec 22 2024 15:40 utc | 12 Tempers seem to be fraying:
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 15:41 utc | 13 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 15:41 utc | 13 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 15:50 utc | 14 Putin calls the Oreshnik “a historic event in the rocket and space industry”
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/115834 Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2024 15:52 utc | 15 Video in link Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 15:52 utc | 16
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 15:50 utc | 14 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 15:59 utc | 17 @ Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 15:52 utc | 16 Posted by: bored | Dec 22 2024 16:07 utc | 18 @bored Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 16:27 utc | 19 Worthwhile analysis of the effects of the Oreshnik strikes using satellite imagery from hours after the strike. Posted by: Pudding | Dec 22 2024 16:35 utc | 20 Copied from the previous Ukraine thread, cause I felt this was a gem : Posted by: Featherless | Dec 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21 @ Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 15:52 utc | 16 Posted by: Homer Tabert | Dec 22 2024 16:39 utc | 22 Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 13:36 utc | 2 Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 16:47 utc | 23 Posted by: Pudding | Dec 22 2024 16:35 utc | 20 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 16:49 utc | 24 bored @ 18 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 16:55 utc | 25 Ukraine Will Be A Slave State Repaying These Debts For Generations Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 22 2024 16:55 utc | 26 Simplicius seems to confirm the lopsided loss ratios that are adverse to Ukraine.
Note that both sides are reporting the Ukrainian KIAs (returned to Ukraine from Russia), but only Russian side is reporting the Russian body count. On average we can say it is 8:1 for RUAF advantage. Posted by: unimperator | Dec 22 2024 17:08 utc | 27 @LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 16:55 utc | 25 Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2024 17:21 utc | 28 Putin says the conflict in Ukraine is not WWIII and makes a curious comparison with the Crimean war. He says most of Europe was against Russia then, but Britain and France became Russian allies in the WWI. Posted by: Leonid Ragozin | Dec 22 2024 17:27 utc | 29 13 – I am a bit surprised it got reported at all. There is censorship by Kiev and the “Western” MSM is good at suppressing awkward stories. Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 22 2024 17:29 utc | 30
the jokes write themself. Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 22 2024 17:34 utc | 31 unimperator @ 27 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 17:38 utc | 32 29 – Odd comparison, as it was a lost war and a spur to reform, like ending serfdom. As to Russia liberating, in fact creating Bulgaria, the Bulgarians are not exactly grateful now, at any rate the ones in government are not. Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 22 2024 17:41 utc | 33 I’d recommend treating that with great caution; it first appeared on this Substack: https://www.amerikanets.com/p/yuzhmash-and-oreshnik-demystified Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 17:46 utc | 34
Speaking of, according to Rybar, according to DPR Joker:
The “sovereign state” is getting more “sovereign” by the day. Must be coming from all the winning going on over there. Posted by: boneless | Dec 22 2024 17:47 utc | 35 unimperator | Dec 22 2024 17:08 utc | 27 Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 22 2024 17:50 utc | 36 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 17:38 utc | 32 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 17:50 utc | 37 Norwegian @ 28
Maybe it’s a Mac thing, but nothing in the updates from TG told me to update my version, or my browser, or my OS, so, if not for dumb luck thinking my version had become corrupted I never would have known there was a new TG I had to install. Very strange to not send out a notice in the update flag, could be the fault of the old OSX version I’m running on the laptop, I’ve had no issue with a current model Mini. Several peeps here have reported problems with TG, so reinstalling the latest dl would be the first thing to try. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 17:54 utc | 39 And he then pretty promptly debunked his own piece here: https://www.amerikanets.com/p/mea-maxima-culpa Posted by: Pudding | Dec 22 2024 17:59 utc | 40 Justpassinby @ 31
Someone else had posted this here, so with a hat tip to them, here it is again: Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 22 2024 18:04 utc | 41 Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 22 2024 17:50 utc | 37 Posted by: unimperator | Dec 22 2024 18:18 utc | 42 Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 17:46 utc | 35 Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 22 2024 18:25 utc | 43 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 15:41 utc | 13 Posted by: hopehely | Dec 22 2024 18:38 utc | 44 Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 22 2024 18:25 utc | 44 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 18:47 utc | 45 Posted by: hopehely | Dec 22 2024 18:38 utc | 45 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 18:49 utc | 46 The Zio-Monster Netanyahu is skipping an event next month in Poland – which celebrates the liberating of Auschwitz (oh the irony) anyway, Netanyahu fears that he will be arrested in Poland – as Poland is a signatory to the Rome Statute, and is obliged to arrest Netanyahu due to the ICC’s arrest warrant. Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 22 2024 18:52 utc | 47 Reply ↓ Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 22 2024 18:53 utc | 48 @LightYearsFromHome Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 18:55 utc | 49 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 15:50 utc | 14 “No way, minimo, micron, Julian, Ed4, and the other NAFO bros assured the bar that Ukraine stronk!” Posted by: Ed4 | Dec 22 2024 19:29 utc | 50 I continue to be amazed at the surrealistic nature of the attacks in Russia and Ukraine. We will know soon enough whether a negotiated settlement is to be had. I Russia can not continue tit for tat. The attacks on it harm it but the attacks on Ukraine are attacks on a proxy. Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 19:40 utc | 51 I am surprised that none of you knew about this. Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 19:51 utc | 52 but my position has consistently been that Russia is paying a huge price for this mess. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 19:51 utc | 53
Posted by: Ed4 | Dec 22 2024 19:29 utc | 50 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 19:56 utc | 54 Oh, and just to head off any nonsense about interest rates or inflation rates… Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 20:02 utc | 55 The Saker is working his grift again. You can now ask him questions via email for a whopping $5. You can read his brilliant analysis for $1 a month or just buy him a cup of coffee. Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 22 2024 20:03 utc | 56 The Patriot about as good as the S-300 Posted by: HughG | Dec 22 2024 20:09 utc | 57
— Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 22 2024 20:15 utc | 58 Ukraine just blew up another oil field inside Russia : Posted by: bored | Dec 22 2024 20:21 utc | 59 “Not in personnel and not in equipment (since they’re handily beating NATO clearing out their old stuff). Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 20:30 utc | 60
Exactly. And that is why the famous Oreshnik missile is very limited in its destructive potential. I don’t know if it really hits its target with Mach 10, and if it can’t be intercepted with state of the art air defense devices. But it is certainly not true that two Oreshniks are comparable to 1 nuclear bomb, as Putin has famously claimed. Chemical energy of a given mass is confined, many orders of magnitude below nuclear energy that can be released from the same mass. What is Putin’s background? Certainly not physics. As a rule: As soon as you stray from your area of competence, you start making embarrasing mistakes… Posted by: grunzt | Dec 22 2024 20:31 utc | 61
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 22 2024 17:46 utc | 34
Posted by: Pudding | Dec 22 2024 17:59 utc | 40 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 20:35 utc | 62 Russia be like live and let live. The west be like wheres our cut in that? That half T we stole is 90 days of expenses. And our Ukraine franchise gets downsized? Unacceptable. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 20:41 utc | 63 Posted by: bored | Dec 22 2024 20:21 utc | 60 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 20:49 utc | 64 @ Grunzt – 62 Posted by: HughG | Dec 22 2024 20:51 utc | 65 @ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang – 63 Posted by: HughG | Dec 22 2024 21:00 utc | 66 “I don’t know if it really hits its target with Mach 10, and if it can’t be intercepted with state of the art air defense devices. But it is certainly not true that two Oreshniks are comparable to 1 nuclear bomb, as Putin has famously claimed. Chemical energy of a given mass is confined, many orders of magnitude below nuclear energy that can be released from the same mass. ” Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 21:05 utc | 67
Posted by: HughG | Dec 22 2024 21:00 utc | 67 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 21:16 utc | 68 “Regardless, it doesn’t make a damn bit of difference if the West finds such outcomes unacceptable when they lack the means to do anything about it. The reason they’re making such a nuisance of themselves on the periphery is precisely because that’s all they have left.” Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 21:22 utc | 69 The TG channel Ukraine Leaks reports via Ukraine border service that 150k people have left Ukraine within 24 hours. Not many people have come back. Posted by: vargas | Dec 22 2024 21:23 utc | 70 I don’t know if it really hits its target with Mach 10, and if it can’t be intercepted with state of the art air defense devices. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 21:33 utc | 71 Posted by: vargas | Dec 22 2024 21:23 utc | 71 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 21:34 utc | 72 “Latest official data says Ukraine had 19000 deserters in November 2024. However, in an officially reported desertion case, a commander must appoint and approve an official investigation, so 19000 is the minimum number. Ukrainian journalist Vladimir Boyko reporting this predicts the dispersal of the Ukrainian army by Spring 2025. Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 22 2024 21:36 utc | 73 Bidencraine was expressly cultivated as weapon against Russia. Why would the west give it up? Theres still Ukranians left. You only need one Ukrainian to launch ATACMs to push the button anyway. Ukraine is a bargain. What has it cost? a meager half T. And Half of that went in the MICs pocket. Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 21:41 utc | 74 @grunzt -But it is certainly not true that two Oreshniks are comparable to 1 nuclear bomb, as Putin has famously claimed. Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 21:45 utc | 75 Your arguing the west is sane. They will take their ball and go home. To your credit they have done that many times. Thats obviously in the interest of the people of the world. We find out soon enough. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 21:45 utc | 76 Posted by: vargas | Dec 22 2024 21:23 utc | 71 Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 22 2024 21:48 utc | 77 Why would the west give it up? Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 21:48 utc | 78 @vargas Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 21:55 utc | 79 @vargas Posted by: wp007 | Dec 22 2024 22:06 utc | 80 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 20:49 utc | 65 Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 22 2024 22:11 utc | 81
Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 22 2024 22:11 utc | 82 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 22:22 utc | 82 Deep State reported finally. RFA got 2.4 kmsq, with a small gain at the Velyka Novasilka front and a small gain at the Vuhledar front. Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 22 2024 22:28 utc | 83 It seems to me that the only people for whom Russias situation is unbearable are westerners who project their need for a political messiah to deliver them from their own despotic governments onto Mr. Putin. Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 22 2024 22:39 utc | 84 Much hand wringing, grunting and groining in the U.S. that Biden’s Administration hid Biden’s senility from the rest of the nation. Ergo, how can anything signed/authorized by Biden ever be legal. Posted by: kupkee | Dec 22 2024 22:47 utc | 85 Oh, and the “state of the art” resides in Russia & China, not in the West. Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 22 2024 22:49 utc | 86 That doesn’t mean that the West can’t catch up. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 23:12 utc | 87 Ukraine Weekly Update, 20th December 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-731
As always, many thanks to you and the others who chronicle these events, and drop off links to where they are posted. Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 22 2024 23:14 utc | 88 And … it’s truly odd that the Kremlin haven’t released anything to bolster their own claims and embarrass Kiev. Weird, really weird. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 23:18 utc | 89 It seems to me that the only people for whom Russias situation is unbearable are westerners who project their need for a political messiah to deliver them from their own despotic governments onto Mr. Putin. Posted by: TheNorthernChef | Dec 22 2024 23:21 utc | 90 “Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 22 2024 20:35 utc | 63 Posted by: Fred | Dec 22 2024 23:22 utc | 91 Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 22 2024 22:28 utc | 84 Posted by: Barrel Brown | Dec 22 2024 23:27 utc | 92 Fred @ 61. “Risk takers are risk takers. They always double down.” Posted by: Yarpos | Dec 22 2024 23:51 utc | 93 @ Chen | Dec 23 2024 0:04 utc | 98 Posted by: boneless | Dec 23 2024 0:17 utc | 94 This sounds both illogical and foolish. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 23 2024 0:29 utc | 95 Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 22 2024 23:12 utc | 91 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 23 2024 0:35 utc | 96 In repressing the Yuzhmash facts, the Ukies must have had to set up a massive security system: Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 23 2024 0:36 utc | 97 Posted by: Chen | Dec 23 2024 0:04 utc | 98 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 23 2024 0:39 utc | 98 @Chen Posted by: wp007 | Dec 23 2024 0:40 utc | 99 Russia will never win if this is their thinking of their leadership already. Nor will BRICS, China and the global south with ‘two faced inconsistent’ friends like this. Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 23 2024 0:43 utc | 100 |
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