Russia seems to be slowing down. They do not dare to attack important Ukro objects like bridges, railway lines, tunnels or 750 KV power grid.
Trump is a billionaire and that probably makes a big impression on Russian oligarchs. Possibly they want to “trade” with Trump.
Posted by: salmon | Dec 20 2024 17:35 utc | 441

Regarding attacking bridges, railways and 750 kV distribution, this is nothing new as it has only been done rarely if ever. Nothing has changed in this regard in prospect of Trump or the ‘oligarch theories’.
The railway of Ukraine isn’t that effective as it used to be, the main targets are rail yard switching tables (as single rail tracks are easily repared) and locomotives and depots. Ukraine’s railway electrical systems are destroyed, leaving diesel locomotives, but the west has no correct sized diesel locomotives for Ukraine either (excluding maybe Baltic chihuahuas who didn’t have many to begin with).
The Dniepr bridges have never been attacked, but could be taken out at a whim. RUAF doesn’t deem it necessary to do so. Perhaps because they can strike the NATO assets coming to the east easier after they have come across the bridge, and they figured they have confront them sooner or later so its just easier to allow them come closer in the Donbass basin instead of piling to the west of Dniepr.
750 kV have been attacked, but what some analysts say RUAF always after striking an electrical object deliberately allow several weeks or even months to pass to analyze NATO capability of repairing those objects. Again, the west doesn’t have many correct type components for the 750 kV grid, excluding Baltic chihuahuas who don’t produce any themselves anyway.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 20 2024 18:02 utc | 404

The US is going to be the first of the great industrialised nations that moves towards a genuinely post Cold-War world by beginning to shake of the multiple, interlocking, mutually supportive bureaucratic structures that were constructed to allow a continuity of purpose, irrespective of any democratic intervention.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 20 2024 17:56 utc | 444
###########
Spend time today researching the Lindy Effect.
The US bureaucracy is Lindy.
I suspect that Putin is going to check Trump from the jump. Putin has a better economy, a better military, better technology, better allies, social cohesion, and a record of success behind him.
Trump? He pardoned an Israeli spy, lost Jeffrey Epstein, and helped Zelensky kill Russians in Donbass, while starving Syrians to death under sanctions. America’s BS domestic successes (financed by debt) mean absolutely nothing to the ROW.
What you consider American success is considered terror by the sovereigns in the Global South.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 20 2024 18:23 utc | 406

Here is Reuters telling the enemy………/s
Exclusive: US to announce final package of new arms for Ukraine in coming days
Is this a Hollywood movie?…../s
When does a proxy war stop being a proxy war?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 20 2024 18:25 utc | 408

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 20 2024 17:55 utc | 443
—————
Your problem is that you are not hearing at what the Kremlin says but to what the West would like the Kremlin to say…

Posted by: scc | Dec 20 2024 18:32 utc | 410

From what I have heard so far, the Kremlin is desperately begging in the background for negotiations to settle the Ukraine conflict and lift the sanctions.
Russia is being destroyed from within.
The Russian economy is in danger of collapsing due to the high interest rate policy of the Russian central bank.
In particular, many newly founded companies in the defense industry are facing insolvency because they can no longer service their loans.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 20 2024 17:55 utc | 443
Just curious, but is it an inbuilt snobbery that means you can’t be bothered to post substantiating links to back up your undoubtedly astute analysis and incisive commentary?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 18:37 utc | 412

The Canadian Government/Gouvernement du Canada has done gender training in Ukraine? Justin, bombs are falling there and you are educating them about pronoun usage?

Applications of Gender-based analysis plus (GBA Plus) and intersectional perspectives to operational support occurred in Poland, Ukraine, Haiti, the Indo-Pacific, and Latvia.
GBA Plus data collection plan: Data is collected as part of wider operational reporting. Each operation will have different limits or ability to collect and report from within the mission, and ability to focus on non-core data requirements. Where necessary, specific ad-hoc assessments and/or persistent reporting structures were implemented with support from CJOC GENAD and Lessons Learned teams, such as in Operation UNIFIER where the desire for detailed data on Ukrainian recruits increased dramatically in 2023. The CJOC Operational Analysis Section, and J5 Plans section began identifying meaningful data that can be analyzed for impact of the program by gender and diversity. (Canada Department National Defence)

These are the new Jesuit missionaries.

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 20 2024 18:53 utc | 414

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 20 2024 18:53 utc | 455
Canada Department National Defence)…Error 404
We’re sorry you ended up here. Sometimes a page gets moved or deleted, but hopefully we can help you find what you’re looking for. What next?

Posted by: heavymetal101 | Dec 20 2024 19:10 utc | 416

Posted by: heavymetal101 | Dec 20 2024 19:10 utc | 457
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/departmental-results-report/2023-24-index/supp-information/gba-plus.html

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 20 2024 19:17 utc | 418

Six Dead After Ukrainian Strikes Using US-Made HIMARS – Russian Governor
https://www.rt.com/russia/609708-kursk-ryisk-attack-himars/
“Kiev has launched a massive missile attack using western weapons on the town of Ryisk in Kursk Region, Aleksandr Khinshtein says…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 20 2024 19:23 utc | 420

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 19:27 utc | 462
now they even burn houses in the UA – the poor ukrainians starve and have no places to sleep – Putin is becoming better and better and this will for sure force the West to stop fighting with ATACMS 😉

Posted by: joe911 | Dec 20 2024 19:39 utc | 422

Six Dead After Ukrainian Strikes Using US-Made HIMARS – Russian Governor
https://www.rt.com/russia/609708-kursk-ryisk-attack-himars/
“Kiev has launched a massive missile attack using western weapons on the town of Ryisk in Kursk Region, Aleksandr Khinshtein says…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 20 2024 19:23 utc | 461
With the range they have they could be firing them from sumy.
Guess there are no useful military targets in the kursk battlefield, not even an horde of north korean savages 😀

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 20 2024 19:45 utc | 424

@ joe911 | Dec 20 2024 19:39 utc | 463
Clearly we agree that the ATACMS would be better deployed targetting actual military targets, rather than wasted on publicity stunts…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 19:49 utc | 426

@ MAKK | Dec 20 2024 19:45 utc | 466
It‘s from a Ukrainian media outlet; I just posted it for the novelty value really, and because it baits the trolls, as we can see…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 19:57 utc | 428

@ joe911 | Dec 20 2024 19:39 utc | 463
Clearly we agree that the ATACMS would be better deployed targetting actual military targets, rather than wasted on publicity stunts…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 19:49 utc | 467
Russian Air force continue their anti-record of killing less than 0.1 civilian per missile. Israeli must be having a chuckle.
Posted by: boneless | Dec 20 2024 19:49 utc | 468
@ Jeremy
Said as much at 465, I guess there are no useful military targets in an 80 km radius (not to mention some hot spots further south where the AFU is getting their asses handed by and unstoppable RF army)
@ boneless, the us and the idf find that is a painful waste of good and deadly HE. An explosion without hundreds of civilian casualties is an offense to the planet, huuuuge co2 footprint and nothing to show for it. That is one of the civilizational reasons why the west can never understand or accept the russian ways, no gentleman could.
And as this is the ukraine thread and haven’t heard serious discussions lately, if the RF has indeed a bridgehead south of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy then there is a huge bulge of AFU forces east of that wedge (the maps still don’t show it)
https://tass.com/politics/1891171
“MOSCOW, December 20. /TASS/. The Russian Armed Forces have established a bridgehead south of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy in the Kharkov Region, and are now approaching the settlement, Colonel Vitaly Kiselyov, a military expert from Donbass, said on the Solovyov Live TV channel.
“We have moved very close to Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from the south. The plan is to expand the bridgehead, so that we can surround [the city of] Kupyansk both from the south and from the north, to encircle it, rather than push our way through,” the expert said.
He specified that Russia has also established a bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskol River, near which the city of Kupyansk is located.
Ukrainian forces have been shifting significant reserves to this settlement, including fresh recruits with little to no training, to retain Kupyansk. The loss of the city would result in the defeat of the battlegroup, which is fighting in the Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Krasny Liman areas and is engaged in holding these strategically important settlements.
”

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 20 2024 20:12 utc | 430

if the RF has indeed a bridgehead south of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy then there is a huge bulge of AFU forces east of that wedge (the maps still don’t show it)

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 20 2024 20:12 utc | 471
Yes, that is not something I’ve seen Marat cover in his recent Substack posts, he’s been concentrating on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo (which now seems to be just a mopping-up operation) sectors.
Multiple fronts are on the move, difficult to keep up with clear and accurate reports, possibly due to fast-changing facts on the ground.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 20:25 utc | 432

@ Newbie | Dec 20 2024 20:12 utc | 471
History Legends YT channel just had a video on the wider Kupyansk front, a good recap of what’s been going on there for the last three months.
A back and forth, with AFRF inevitable advance through developing and closing cauldrons. The front is cut in two, complicating resupply for AFU. There have been two risky river crossings to sidestep and encircle the river’s defensive positions. One was lost, the other was expanded.
A tough front, mostly forests and plains with long standing defensive positions and two town staging points on the river itself, few settlements for AFRF to hop through to those.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 20 2024 20:30 utc | 434

Clearly we agree that the ATACMS would be better deployed targetting actual military targets, rather than wasted on publicity stunts…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 19:49 utc | 467

From the perspective of Biden’s handlers it is the best way.
Goading.
Hot War based on over the top reflexive retaliation from Russia
_before_ year end or at the last line of Jan. 20.

Posted by: MAKK | Dec 20 2024 20:36 utc | 436

@ Joe911 | Dec 20 2024 20:26 utc | 474
BTW Joe, the 911 is a hairdressers car; for proper macho trolling you need one of these preferably with the 430 engine…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 20:41 utc | 438

So now Trump wants “payments” to NATO to rise to 5% of GNP for European countries – and he was the person who was going to cut NATO down to size?
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 20 2024 20:50 utc | 480
##############
This is about getting more orders from American defense contractors to create jobs and raise stock market valuations.
NATO, and “peace through strength” are American MIC marketing programs and slogans.
That’s the other side of this. Global South governments are increasingly interested in Russian weaponry, given their battlefield performance and relatively affordable cost, including lower maintenance costs.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 20 2024 20:55 utc | 440

Ukrainian losses still running at around 60,000 a month, off the peak of around 90,000 a few months ago. Less front-line Ukies to kill, or are they are lot less likely to throw their lives away after being press-ganged?
Ukraine is obviously getting very small resupplies of tanks, IFVs, APCs and greater numbers of lightly armoured vehicles as losses spike for a little while then go back to a lower trend. Artillery losses just grind on in a 600-900 per month range. Seems next to no EW and counter-battery radar systems left to destroy.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Dec 20 2024 20:21 utc | 472
The numbers have been declining, in 2024, since Avdeevka fell (we can mosltly ignore the kursk blip, at least meatside, not on good units or equipment, kursk was 7% of meat casualties but 75% of main battle tanks lost in 2024)
But I Think the peak was the 2023 summer party (won’t try to discuss RF MOD counting rules)
————————
if the RF has indeed a bridgehead south of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy then there is a huge bulge of AFU forces east of that wedge (the maps still don’t show it)
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 20 2024 20:12 utc | 471
Yes, that is not something I’ve seen Marat cover in his recent Substack posts, he’s been concentrating on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo (which now seems to be just a mopping-up operation) sectors.
Multiple fronts are on the move, difficult to keep up with clear and accurate reports, possibly due to fast-changing facts on the ground.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 20:25 utc | 473
Sometimes Tass has the goodies quite soon (I don’t use telegram so that’s it)
And yes, several good new fronts are available (I even thought tthey’d finish chasiv yar soon, and toretsk seems to be finishing), but Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo are not a mop-up, they are just prliminaries before RF has free reign behind the existing deffense lines.
———–
@ Newbie | Dec 20 2024 20:12 utc | 471
History Legends YT channel just had a video on the wider Kupyansk front, a good recap of what’s been going on there for the last three months.
A back and forth, with AFRF inevitable advance through developing and closing cauldrons. The front is cut in two, complicating resupply for AFU. There have been two risky river crossings to sidestep and encircle the river’s defensive positions. One was lost, the other was expanded.
A tough front, mostly forests and plains with long standing defensive positions and two town staging points on the river itself, few settlements for AFRF to hop through to those.
Posted by: boneless | Dec 20 2024 20:30 utc | 475
Thanks, I have been following by taking a quick look at some maps almost every day.

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 20 2024 21:08 utc | 442

For a few years now, CIA has been recruiting young and dumb people online in Russia and telling them to throw Molotov cocktails at military commissariats and government buildings. In most cases, no real damage is done. These “contractors” are mostly doing it for the money they are promised through messaging apps. Some of them are brainwashed by ideology. Others are scared into submission via various tricks. They all can’t understand that they will end up spending at least a decade in jail for a few hundred dollars and nothing to show for it.
CIA does all this to achieve a bunch of petty goals at once. First, it creates a narrative that Russian civilians are so angry that they’re willing to risk their lives to symbolically strike against the system. This works great in the media. Second, it opens up another criminal case, putting a load on the police, security services, courts, and prisons. Third, it’s basically their delivery system and way of showing their strength. They’ll spend $200-$400 to deliver a Molotov cocktail to the front door of a Russian MoD building in any part of Russia, and they always find someone stupid enough to do it. Fourth, arrested contractors have their lives destroyed and can’t even join the SMO if they’re found guilty of treason.
It’s all malicious, but that last part is just evil. You find some dumb guy online, promise him some meager sum of money, and ruin his life for no reason at all. A perfect prank. I don’t see the Russian intelligence pulling stuff like that in Ukraine, where people are actually outraged about the forced mobilization. I’m afraid that it’s not due to the high morals of Russian spooks, but a mix of incompetence and the lack of will. Cops in Russia love cases like this, though, because they’re super easy to solve. These idiots film themselves and live with their moms next door.

Posted by: RWA | Dec 20 2024 22:07 utc | 444

According to Quint, the shark hunter,
“Sometimes that shark he looks right into you. Right into your eyes.
You know the thing about a shark is he’s got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll’s eyes.”
The author of Jaws, at the point of writing, had obviously never seen a Great White up close.
I have dived with Great Whites on numerous occasions. Close up, their eyes are not black, but the most iridescent cobalt blue, a window into the raging wheel of the universe.
The wheel turns, life ebbs and flows.
Where are you Fellow Man?

Posted by: Henri Peut-Etre | Dec 20 2024 22:19 utc | 446

About F-16s over Western Ukraine
Preparations of Ukrainian formations for new attacks or offensives are gaining momentum. In addition to forming new brigades, transferring new equipment and weapons, for the first time in a long time, F-16s have begun flying over Western Ukraine.
Over the past two days, 14 F-16 flights have been recorded over the Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi regions. They patrolled the area and, apparently, took off to intercept our missiles and drones, but remained in the west.
It is not entirely clear where they took off from, since they were already marked in the air, so in theory they could have been at airfields such as Ivano-Frankivsk, Ozerny or Lutsk, or they could have flown in from Poland, where there are two military bases along the border with Ukraine – Rzeszow and Minsk-Mazowiecki.
Such a large number of flights against the backdrop of news about the upcoming offensive could also be related to this. F-16s have hardly been used up to this point, and this will clearly happen, and most likely during the Ukrainian activism.
@rusich_army

Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 20 2024 22:22 utc | 448

This half-baked war won’t work when it should be an existential war.
Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 20 2024 22:26 utc | 490
Be careful what you wish for. Or maybe you don’t live anywhere near where this “existential war” would be raging? If so, Be careful what you wish for others.

Posted by: Oldhand | Dec 20 2024 22:30 utc | 450

Posted by: RWA | Dec 20 2024 22:07 utc | 485
I assume you will be equally condemnatory towards the numerous anti-Western terrorist organisations who use this method to recruit volunteers? Or do you think all suicide bombers really are well adjusted individuals, eager to die for a cause?

Posted by: Milites | Dec 20 2024 22:41 utc | 452

to avoid anything that would allow Biden to declare war, which under the US Constitution would then mean that Trump cannot take office.
Posted by: wp007 | Dec 20 2024 22:46 utc | 494
______
Why do you keep posting this falsehood?

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 20 2024 22:57 utc | 454

Kurakhove seems to be taken pretty much intact.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 20 2024 23:16 utc | 456

@ Vargas | Dec 20 2024 23:16 utc | 498
Some sources are confused; it might be 16 F-14s…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 23:42 utc | 499
You could be right. I’ll ask Dima. He’ll know for sure.

Posted by: Vargas | Dec 20 2024 23:46 utc | 458

Given that the US has been the pre-eminent country for nearly a century, whilst The Russians never have been, in their entire history one would therefore predict the US would endure longer. Or am I misreading a theory that’s based on explaining a catering establishments longevity and repurposed for predicting the success of comedians? Personally I like the idea that we are perhaps approaching a paradigm shift, with all that entails, certainly the auguries are pointing in that direction.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 20 2024 22:37 utc | 492
########
The Lindy effect is that the older something is, the longer it will likely endure.
Russia is a civilization. Russia is thousands of years old. America is a baby by comparison. The comparison gets worse if we involve China in this analysis.
Before America was on top, the British were on top. It used to be said that “the sun never sets on the British Empire”. In some parts of the Empire, somewhere in the world, it was daytime because the Empire spanned so much of the planet at the time. It spoke to the inevitability of the British Empire and the power of its navy.
Where is the British Empire today?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 20 2024 23:51 utc | 460

Posted by: WMG | Dec 20 2024 23:52 utc | 503
Great news.
Finally trump will start one war: ww3. All most stupid western psychopaths.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 21 2024 0:25 utc | 462

@I forgot When the SMO started, that prediction would’ve been plausible. Now, the RoW would immediately understand.
maybe some, but not all and the propaganda ist against. Whoever throws the first stone (here: bomb) is to blame
Many people do not understand long explanations of complicated casualties straight away, i.e. not via headline, and that is what people react to before reading and considering everything.
(It is the same here)

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 21 2024 0:35 utc | 464

I am really very happy with Trump. Gorka will do more to undermine the Empire than anyone.
Wait until Little Marco starts shaking countries down and calling Putin a dictator. LOL
Every step of the way MAGAs will be rationalizing their insane statements as good for America and part of the Plan™.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 0:46 utc | 466

the inevitability of the British Empire and the power of its navy.
Where is the British Empire today?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 20 2024 23:51 utc | 502
Suffering under a surfeit of Admirals, sinking with a deficit of boats.

Posted by: Oldhand | Dec 21 2024 1:18 utc | 468

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 20 2024 22:59 utc | 496
Thanks for the compliment, and you won’t be the first person to call me a dinosaur, so no offence taken. The end of history comment though was weapons grade stupid, but understandable given the perspective at the time. Who knew then that the corrupt Clinton’s would enthusiastically boost the Chinese technological base, whilst systematically weakening their own country, the X-Files was cool and Russians were relegated to being portrayed as chain-smoking dim-wits or nice guys swimming in a chess pool of corruption (no projection there), so USA, USA, all the gauges read normal.
The technological superiority of the Russians/Chinese is largely untested (no the SMO does not offer a realistic arena, hence Putin’s interesting comment about a tech match up) and is largely theoretical. The US has invested in another generation of warfare that the Russians have barely touched and the F-35 is running the gauntlet of criticism just like every weapon system fielded simply because most of the critics, trapped by the past, fail to understand what it is and what capabilities it brings to the table. Russia excels in the fields it’s always excelled in, but the supporting structure (the skeleton, that those specific military muscles are attached to, is still severely weakened by decades of underfunding and many other muscles are lacking in strength). The Russian military though is schizophrenic in nature and whilst somewhat tactically inflexible at the command level has an ability to adapt quickly, which conceals or reduces the negative impacts of these doctrinal choices.
The SMO, as I’ve said before, is a unique conflict environment (all conflicts are unique in nature but this has a historical synchronicity that favours Russia at the expense of Ukraine) so drawing conclusions and then extrapolating them to a global arena is somewhat misguided. It’s quite ironic to watch the debate develop, regarding the use of current conflicts to determine the combat effectiveness of both ideological sides, given how the tables have turned since the Cold-War. Bottom line, Russia is wining because of the SMO, Ukraine is losing because of it, remove the unique conditions and the result would be different. Same as any conflict, so forget the weaponry, focus on the political battle whose dynamic will radically change once Trump arrives as President, to determine the real state of affairs.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 21 2024 1:44 utc | 470

Russia is stuck inside Ukraine and the price they pay increases everyday.This is what US wanted and they succeeded.This war also allowed US to expand it’s control over Europe as Russia/European relations will be fractured for decades to come.

Posted by: Scorpionking | Dec 21 2024 2:11 utc | 472

@ Philly | Dec 21 2024 2:22 utc | 520
I still have no idea what “extend yourself” means — it’s two English words but it’s not English — and no, your comment addresses nothing I said.
I submit that you’re typing too much and thinking too little, Mr. -isco.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 21 2024 2:37 utc | 474

Posted by: Philly | Dec 21 2024 2:37 utc | 523
##########
What is your source? That reads like NATO cope.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 2:46 utc | 476

Wading through all the trolling swamp is worth it when I come upon this:

Putin’s Direct Line is again The Bomb. I’ve only finished part one of three in translating the transcript, but by itself is very powerful. Putin’s destruction of the NBC Presstitute was fantastic, https://karlof1.substack.com/p/direct-line-2024-resul..
The rest will be finished tomorrow.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 20 2024 5:56 utc | 336

karlof1, you are a modern day scribe whose efforts win the day. Many many thanks!

Posted by: juliania | Dec 21 2024 3:03 utc | 478

Trump is a scammer, and it seems clear that Russia and Putin are being used as a punchbag by the US and NATO for the two inter president months, the expectation being that Russia are waiting on the off-chance that Trump will be positive and won’t retaliate to NATO strikes on Russian territory.
This is a nonsense, being so beholden to the Americans that you become a punchbag, use Ukraine as a punchbag in return which is just what NATO want so they can collect the technical data on Russia’s most advanced weapons .
Are we all OK with Russia still having another month of being a punchbag? 6 are dead in Kursk because of it

Posted by: Winston | Dec 21 2024 3:43 utc | 480

@514 Russia is coming up to the 3rd anniversary of the beginning of the ‘SMO’ aka War against Ukraine….blah,blah,blah
Good grief what a buffet to pick from:
False equivalence, lack of understanding of the difference between total war and an SMO level conflict, lack of appreciation for. the change in the battlefield over 80 years, just to start.

Posted by: Yarpos | Dec 21 2024 4:04 utc | 482

@Winston
Russia has to bridge the time until Trump takes office, without Oreshnik. Firstly, because the (still) secret information should not be disclosed unless it is really necessary, and secondly, because series production has only just begun (SBU estimates 25/month as production capacity, I think it is even less because series production also needs time to get going properly, including supplies). Russia is also building a hypersonic version of the ICBMs, but suffered a major setback in January when the missile exploded during the first test and there is now a large crater there. So there is a delay of at least 6 months.
That means that everything is not yet available in sufficient quantities, so Russia needs time.
Furthermore, Russia only has 2 ships with Zircons and Kinzhal and 1 submarine with Poseidons in the Black Sea (due to the Turkish blockade). When their stocks run out, we have to go back to refill. So use it sparingly and only use it when absolutely necessary.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 21 2024 4:18 utc | 484

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 21 2024 4:18 utc | 535
If only Stalin had made it a priority to connect the rivers Don and Volga with a canal right after WW2 then Russia could send all but its largest warships into the Black Sea from the Baltic and Arctic fleets without ever leaving Russia.

Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 21 2024 4:39 utc | 486

@Badjoke – and if they had warp drive and antigravity, they would have even more advantages

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 21 2024 4:55 utc | 488

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 21 2024 4:48 utc | 539
#########
It’s not going to leave. It is here for attention.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 5:06 utc | 490

Two good pieces by Will Schryver
Dictating Terms
Excerpt:

A great many people in America and around the world are convinced that, come January 20, 2025, when Donald J. Trump is again inaugurated as President of the United States, he will (as he has already boldly asserted) call Vladimir Putin on the phone and say, in effect, “You must end this war immediately, or else we’re going to get real serious, and you will not like the consequences.”
Trump disciples genuinely believe he can impose his will on Putin to bring an end to the Ukraine War. At the very least, they are convinced Trump can “cut a deal” in the form of an offer Putin cannot refuse. They simply don’t realize that the only “deal” to be made at this juncture is the US/NATO agreeing to the terms Russia dictates.
That is what happens in the real world when you win a big war.

—
The Weakling Wunderwaffe
Excerpt:

The F-35 Lightning II “Joint Strike Fighter” is destined to go down in military history as arguably the most ill-conceived, incompetently engineered, and combat-ineffectual large-scale production aircraft of the jet propulsion era.
It is notoriously under-powered, cripplingly frail, and fatally under-armed.
Its maintenance requirements are so onerous as to render it a net liability in the context of a major air campaign against a peer adversary. For every hour of flight, it requires at least 20 hours of maintenance, including frequent engine swap outs because its feeble powerplant basically fries itself after a few hours of high-demand conditions.
With a full weapons and fuel load, the F-35 struggles to achieve Mach 1 speeds.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 5:11 utc | 492

@LoveDonbass – stop dreaming, Trump doesn’t want nukes, even no hazelnuts. He is a businessman, he will try to make a deal, will not increase the acression.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 21 2024 5:17 utc | 494

I think it was in a recent Danny Davis video that he was saying that Russian 10-man units, which split into 2 groups of 5, then split those into two groups, one of 3 and one of 2 have 50 drones monitoring and overwatching them as they advance.
So 50 drones for every 10 infantry.
The Russians are revolutionizing the battlefield almost daily.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 5:20 utc | 496

About the advances mentioned at Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 5:20 utc | 550
That is a great way to preserve manpower.
Better overwatch and guidance to keep soldiers from getting into bad situations, preserving lives, and maintaining a high pace of advance.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 21 2024 5:27 utc | 498

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 21 2024 5:03 utc | 543
All the corvettes and ssk’s can. So no shortage of missile carriers is going to be had.

Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 21 2024 6:24 utc | 500