Ukraine Weekly Update, 6th December 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-ba5

Posted by: The Busker | Dec 8 2024 13:26 utc | 1

Thanks a lot, Rob, excellent as always.

It remains to be seen how much energy people have for Ukraine now in the midst of the drama in Syria

Posted by: Avtonom | Dec 8 2024 13:46 utc | 2

Trump claims Ukraine lost 400,000 soldiers in war with russia

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said that Ukraine lost 400,000 soldiers in a full-scale war with russia. He wrote about this on his page on Truth Social.

He reported that Ukraine allegedly "ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers", and he called the losses among civilians even greater. Therefore, Donald Trump said, it is necessary to immediately cease fire and begin negotiations.

“There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir (putin – Ed.) well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!" wrote Donald Trump.

He also stated that russia and Iran are now very weakened – “one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success.”

“They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever,” the U.S. President-elect noted.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Zelenskyy’s meeting with Macron and Trump in Paris on Saturday evening lasted 35 minutes, and there were no press statements after it.

~~~

Followed by:

Zelenskyy clarifies Trump's words about loss of 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers

Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers since the start of the full-scale war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported this on his Telegram channel.

According to him, 370,000 soldiers were injured during this period.

"370,000 cases of providing assistance to the wounded, and this is taking into account that in our army approximately 50 percent of the wounded return to service, and all injuries are recorded, including minor and repeated ones. One of the key differences between the Russian army and the Defense Forces of Ukraine is the level of development of front-line medicine, which is much higher in our army," he wrote.

Zelenskyy said that russian losses exceed 750,000 people. This is 198,000 russians killed and more than 550,000 wounded.

"Since September of this year, Russia has been losing people on the battlefield at a ratio of 5 and even 6 to 1 for us. This is how they want to seize more land before the world's pressure on them can become unbearable," the President added.

Recall, Trump previously stated that Ukraine lost 400,000 soldiers in the war with russia.

The comedian hasn’t lost his touch at raising a laugh...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 14:12 utc | 3

Thanks a lot, Rob, excellent as always.
It remains to be seen how much energy people have for Ukraine now in the midst of the drama in Syria

Posted by: Avtonom | Dec 8 2024 13:46 utc | 2

Thanks for that - the Update is slow this week, the snail's pace of the Ukraine conflict can't compete with Syria.

Posted by: The Busker | Dec 8 2024 14:18 utc | 4

The comedian hasn’t lost his touch at raising a laugh...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 14:12 utc | 3

--------------

Trump even moreso cooking up whatever numbers suits his current line of carny bullshit. He earned his spot in the "WWE hall of fame", no doubt.

I like the "war going on forever" bit of nonsense (or lie). Because according to even spookopeadia

Ukraine's recruitable manpower ain't doing so well. Unless the Ukrs figure out necromancy and raise a nazi-zombie horde IRL.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 8 2024 14:30 utc | 5

"600,000 Russian soldiers"
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 14:12 utc | 3

That's called orange-man-math and will replace standard math in all Nato countries.

Posted by: rk | Dec 8 2024 14:41 utc | 6

3/JRL:

We are still getting this killed versus total (KIA, WIA, POW) confusion, 2+ years later.

Then again, Trump is intellectually lazy and just likes to sort of space jam with wild remarks, anyhow. Appeals to and is similar to LCD commenters at The Last Refuge and the ilk. I don't even classify Trump's remarks as lies, because I think they lack a shrewd intent to deceive. More like wild blather.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 8 2024 14:53 utc | 7

Kremlin refutes Trump’s remarks on losses in Ukrainian conflict
The Ukrainian army’s losses surpass those of Russia exponentially, Dmitry Peskov said
Russia's Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov Sergei Bulkin/TASS
Russia's Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov
© Sergei Bulkin/TASS

MOSCOW, December 8. /TASS/. The Ukrainian army’s losses surpass those of Russia exponentially, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

Commenting on data, cited by US President-elect Donald Trump, he said: "As for figures cited on losses on both sides, obviously, they were given in a Ukrainian interpretation and reflect Ukraine’s official stance. The actual figures for losses are completely different: Ukrainian losses exponentially surpass the losses on the Russian side," the Kremlin official stressed.

The continued dynamics of the Ukrainian army’s losses will lead to its exhaustion and the lowered draft age in Ukraine, Peskov added.
Possibility of a settlement

Peskov also noted that Russia is open to talks on Ukraine but terms for an immediate ceasefire were outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin back in June.

"President Putin has repeatedly mentioned that Russia is open to talks on Ukraine and welcomes peace initiatives, coming, above all, from the countries of the Global South, our BRICS partners: China, India, Brazil, South Africa, as well as the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, already working on the humanitarian track," the Kremlin official said. "Our stance on Ukraine is well-known. Conditions for an instant ceasefire were outlined by President Putin in June during his speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry," Peskov added.

In order to get on the track toward peace, it is enough for Vladimir Zelensky to cancel his decree banning any talks with Russia and return to dialogue based on the Istanbul agreements, told reporters.

"It is important to reiterate that it was precisely Ukraine that rejected any talks and continues to do so. Moreover, Zelensky with his own decree forbade himself and his administration any interaction with the Russian leadership. This is their unwavering stance," Peskov emphasized. "In order to get on the peace track, it is enough for Zelensky to cancel this decree and order to resume dialogue based on the Istanbul agreements and accounting for the actual situation on the ground," the Kremlin official stressed.

The Kremlin has carefully examined remarks by US President-elect Donald Trump on Ukraine’s readiness for a peace agreement with Russia, the spokesman added.

"We have carefully studied the statement by US President-elect Donald Trump which he made after a meeting in Paris with [French President Emmanuel] Macron and [Vladimir] Zelensky," the Kremlin official said.

https://tass.com/politics/1884087

Trump announces Ukraine’s readiness for talks with Russia
"If it [conflict] keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse," Trump noted
US President-elect Donald Trump Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
US President-elect Donald Trump
© Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

WASHINGTON, December 8. /TASS/. US President-elect Donald Trump has said that Ukraine would like to conclude an agreement on settlement of the conflict with Russia and urged an immediate ceasefire and the beginning of peace negotiations, Trump wrote on his Truth Social page.

"Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal [with Russia] and stop the madness. <…> There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin," he said, adding that "China can help" in the negotiations process.

"If it [conflict] keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse," Trump noted.

https://tass.com/military-operation-in-ukraine/1883979

And as I mentioned earlier

Weeks ago I mentioned trump might trade Ukraine (and Romania ) for the ME (when I saw the appointments)

Now… as I mentioned earlier in this thread, 12th/13th if we see an effective counter attack then the deal is off, otherwise… no bets

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 2:45 utc | 452

and finally

Russian position on Syria fully reflected in Foreign Ministry’s statement — Kremlin
"As for Syria, our position has been fully reflected in the relevant statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry," Dmitry Peskov said

so enough said

MOSCOW, December 8. /TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry has outlined Moscow’s stance on Syria, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

"As for Syria, our position has been fully reflected in the relevant statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry," the Kremlin official said.
Tags

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 14:53 utc | 8

What's the likelihood of a backroom deal - you Ukraine, me Syria?

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 8 2024 15:00 utc | 9

What's the likelihood of a backroom deal - you Ukraine, me Syria?

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 8 2024 15:00 utc | 9

Did you read my previous post ?

From the moment trump made the appointments I mentioned that something like that might be in the cards.

To seal a reasonable deal for RF I’m waiting for the west to drop Romania … at least the base there

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 15:09 utc | 10

Judge Nap, with Ritter, threw out this number last week, over 600,000 dead Ukies....judges don't lie....er, well.......

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 8 2024 15:10 utc | 11

Urban Fox Dec 8 2024 14:30 utc | 5

"Ukraine's recruitable manpower ain't doing so well. Unless the Ukrs figure out necromancy and raise a nazi-zombie horde IRL."

Apparently some CIA suitcases full of dollars have persuaded the Night King (from Game of Thrones) to raise an army of the dead to bring a long night to Russia. The Night King, otherwise known as the Czeck Vladimir Furdik, no doubt an obediently russophobic east european didn't of course need much persuading.

https://youtu.be/Ds0R1eApo9w?si=1Rxt9AM-MxK-axYc

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 15:20 utc | 12

Its good to see things going in the right direction. There is now a chance to wind this down. Maybe not to the liking of many here but this is the reality.

It is also good to see some truth seeping out about losses.

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 8 2024 15:45 utc | 13

The very existence of the extremist like islamists or Ukrainians is an immense power of the west.
This goes together with zombified population of EU.

Posted by: salmon | Dec 8 2024 15:47 utc | 14

@2 avatom

Re: energy for Ukraine is energy for syria.

I can say for sure that Russia has more energy for Ukraine now. I'm thinking Ukraines special service wasn't counting on a peaceful transfer of power and no Islamist mobs invading Russian bases. I'm sure they'll be happy with 100% of Russias attention to them in kursk and the Donna's. Lol talk about unintended consequences.

Hell it's not even clear Russia is leaving its Mediterranean bases yet the new government my honor the 99 year lease to balance out turkey and the US in influence.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 8 2024 15:53 utc | 15

"Zelenskyy clarifies Trump's words about loss of 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers
Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers since the start of the full-scale war.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported this on his Telegram channel."

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 14:12 utc | 3

Lies, misinformation, and then more lies from Zelensky.
If they only lost "43,000 kia" in Russia's SMO, why are they wanting NATO troops? Why are they talking about recruiting down to 18-year-olds?

A start to peace would be Ukraine being honest about its losses.

A start to peace would be having an election in Ukraine, so that there would be someone legitimate for Russia to negotiate with.

Posted by: Mark O | Dec 8 2024 15:59 utc | 16

I'm supposing that things are a little tense right about now between Putin and the General Staff. I'm interested to see how that plays out.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 16:01 utc | 17

From the moment trump made the appointments I mentioned that something like that might be in the cards.

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 15:09 utc | 10

---

How does a "deal" without a guarantor work?

Posted by: too scents | Dec 8 2024 16:04 utc | 18

with the policy of small steps the Kremlin has lost 90% of credibility,
what trust can his allies have if a gang of cutthroats in slippers is enough to conquer a nation, in a week the takfiris armed and directed by erdo-cane and Israel took over Syria making a mockery of the invincible Russian and Iranian Syrian armies,

Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 8 2024 16:16 utc | 19

Was it in 2020 that Russia and Syria “agreed” to cease fire on Idlib.

My regard for RF will crater if they do same over Kiev.

Would it take 5 years for Kiev to roar back?

Posted by: paddy | Dec 8 2024 16:18 utc | 20

https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-ba5
The Busker | Dec 8 2024 13:26 utc | 1

Thanks for that
good wrap up of events.

Posted by: hh | Dec 8 2024 16:27 utc | 21

Thanks for that
good wrap up of events.

Posted by: hh | Dec 8 2024 16:27 utc | 21

My pleasure.

Posted by: The Busker | Dec 8 2024 16:30 utc | 22

From the moment trump made the appointments I mentioned that something like that might be in the cards.
To seal a reasonable deal for RF I’m waiting for the west to drop Romania … at least the base there

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 15:09 utc | 10

First you'd have to assume that your speculation is correct, and then you'd have to assume the Kremlin would be crazy enough to believe them.

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 16:32 utc | 23

Ukraine will soon receive a large quantity of partly state-of-the-art Russian military equipment.
Everything that the Syrian army handed over to the rebels without fighting.

Su24, Su34, TOS flamethrowers, Mi24 + Mi8 combat helicopters, Terminator tanks, main battle tanks, air defense systems, lots of artillery and small arms ...

Russia laughed at the USA for its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. Now they have certainly stopped laughing.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 8 2024 16:48 utc | 24

Ukraine will soon receive a large quantity of partly state-of-the-art Russian military equipment.
Everything that the Syrian army handed over to the rebels without fighting.

Su24, Su34, TOS flamethrowers, Mi24 + Mi8 combat helicopters, Terminator tanks, main battle tanks, air defense systems, lots of artillery and small arms ...
Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 8 2024 16:48 utc | 24

This is unfortunately quite possible.

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 16:56 utc | 25

Fitch Ratings affirms Ukraine's long-term foreign currency rating at "Restricted Default"

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'Restricted Default' (RD) as Ukraine remains in the process of restructuring its external commercial debt.

This is stated on the rating agency's website.

"The debt service suspension is expected to last until the end of the debt restructuring process. Ukrenergo failed to pay its deferred interest on 9 November 2024. Ukraine's LTFC IDR will remain 'RD' until Fitch judges the exchanges have been completed and relations with a significant majority of external commercial creditors are normalised," Fitch said.

Ukraine's Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (LC IDR) is maintained at "CCC+". A significant part of the national debt belongs to the NBU and Ukrainian banks.

"In our view, this ownership structure would limit the benefits to Ukraine from any LC debt restructuring by creating potential fiscal costs (including bank re-capitalisation). Such a restructuring could also create risks for financial sector stability and impair development of the domestic debt market," Fitch said in a statement.

Fitch expects the general government deficit to remain high at 19.1% and 19.2% in 2024 and 2025.

The agency forecasts that despite the recent tax hike, high defense spending and reduced foreign grants will contribute to the maintenance of a significant deficit.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 17:07 utc | 26

I suppose the fog and smoke of Syria helps to take everyone’s mind off of the continuing lack of images showing a largely intact, minimally damaged Yuzhmash works...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 17:25 utc | 27

from ISW
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec 7
Russian forces have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town. Russian forces, including elements of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), began advancing further west and northwest of Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) along the Petrivka-Pustynka-Zhovte line south of Pokrovsk in late November 2024 after mainly focusing their offensive efforts on widening the salient south of Selydove and eliminating the Ukrainian pockets north and south of Kurakhove. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2024 17:32 utc | 28

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 16:01 utc | 17

I'm supposing that things are a little tense right about now between Putin and the General Staff. I'm interested to see how that plays out

Similar thoughts. Vlad's popularity might rapidly decline.

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 17:33 utc | 29

John // 29

Why?

Posted by: Nobody Special | Dec 8 2024 17:39 utc | 30

Russia should expand its list of demands on the West: free elections in former Warshaw pact countries. They can cite Romania as an example.

(how you like them apples)

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 8 2024 17:42 utc | 31

Im seeing a narrative emerging over the events in Syria: "Look how quickly Assad fell, Putin can fall quickly as well", but this logic is flawed on many levels.

Ukraine is integrally linked with Syria. It was from a port in Crimea that the Russians were clandestinely supporting Assad back in the early 2010s. This support formed a major roadblock to the plan for 'a new american century'. When the FSA stalled, that was when Maidan occurred, in a turn of events not to dissimilar to what we are watching now. And what was the first thing Russia rushed in and seized way back then? Shortly after, the IS offensive started, taking over most of the country, and Russia went from clandestine to open support. IS was driven back from Aleppo, helped in no small part from the Black Sea fleet.

However, with the Invasion of Ukraine in '22, came the closure of the Bosphorus strait, making the support Syria had previously enjoyed impossible. As such, when it became clear that Russia had fully committed to Ukraine in September, what I imagine had been planned for some time got set into motion, and here we are today. One could argue this is a geostrategic masterstroke from the west, because the choice this has forced for Russia is a tough one, with the only real answer resulting in giving the west what it has coveted for some time.

However, I believe there is a blue move coming in Ukraine - and from the timing, there is a possibility that the Syrian invasion was also intended to draw Russian resources away from the region ahead of it. So the choice for Russia, who I suspect knows it's coming, was either dilute its strength to the middle east, and risk losing Crimea, or sacrifice Syria and maintain its strength in Ukraine. It appears they have chosen the latter, because at the end of the day, they can always come back to the ME after the dust settles, but they can't do that if they lose Sevastopol.

Are you starting to see why the West has been so focused on Crimea? From 91 border demands, to prioritising Black Sea fleet strikes, the 23 CO aim of cutting the land bridge and mutiple attempts on the Kerch? It's never actually been about the Ukrainian people, you know. It has always been about the bigger chessboard.

But this same decision Russia has made to essentially abandon Syria means that Russian strength in Ukraine remains undampened, and any new UA offensive will now have to face it at its full capacity. Syria might have fallen quickly, but at the cost of making any military defeat of Russia in Ukraine far less likely.

Things are still murky in the ME rn, so all this could be jumping the gun. Personally, I'm interested to see how the Russians react around their bases in Syria. That will be an indicator of sorts of whether they intend to remain. But going back to OP, in the ME, yeah, Trump is right, but not enough to tip the scales on backchannel discussions imo. That will require the plan in Ukraine to go ahead, but without the more favourable odds they had hoped for.

Sorry for the wall.

Posted by: Jimieus | Dec 8 2024 17:53 utc | 32

Posted by: Nobody Special | Dec 8 2024 17:39 utc | 30

Why

Well, because, aside from other tensions inside their national security state, as Dmitry Orlov said in a recent interview, "Russia has been close friends with Syria for 80 years, and it doesn't abandon its friends."

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 18:00 utc | 33

"Russia has been close friends with Syria for 80 years, and it doesn't abandon its friends."

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 18:00 utc | 33

that may be true, but judging from those videos showing syrian military personell ditching their uniforms, putting on civilian clothing, and simply leaving, its rather that their "friend" has left them.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 8 2024 18:11 utc | 34

Zelensky Rejects Trump's Peace Call

https://www.rt.com/news/608988-zelensky-trump-ceasefire-talks/

"Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has rejected a call by US President-elect Donald Trump for an immediate truce and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia..."

Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 8 2024 18:12 utc | 35

@ john | Dec 8 2024 18:00 utc | 33

Take care not to project one's own fantasy interpretations stemming from over-stimulation onto a whole nation.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 18:14 utc | 36

Well, now that Russia's diplomacy and military has scored yet another masterpiece of geopolitical strategy by losing Syria and its only tangible foothold in the Middle East, we turn back to Ukraine, where after 2 and a half years Russias owns a grand total of.. *squints* 20% of Ukrainian territory. Its forces are progressing meter by meter in order to take the all-important town of Bumfuckhovo (200 inhabitants before the war), which will be hailed as the next great victory which will without a doubt signal Ukraine's collapse.

No seriously, at this point the only question is : for how many shekels will Putin sell out ? How bad will the next crooked deal be ? We can only try to imagine.

But the worst will be in 2 to 3 years, once NATO and the US has taken the time to rearm and to buy off every one of these little crime lordlings on which Putin's clique does so much love to spread its largesses. Then you'll see what a 10-day SMO really likes. You'll have Lavrov and Zakharova, as usual, sternly wagging some fingers ; Putin scrambling in its plane, but to where ? Will Kim Jong-Un even want to have him ? Doubtful.

Russia has become such a laughingstock. I'm sure NATO diplomats are licking their chops and making bets at how they're going to ridicule the suckers. Just look at the news today, now Putin wails that "Zelensky doesn't want to negotiate".

These losers just can't imagine what victory looks like. It doesn't fit in their mental framework. They have to make a deal with someone. In 1945 they would have stopped at Berlin's gate and tried to resurrect Hitler's corpse or cut a deal with Dönitz, that's how fucking dumb and craven they are. Fucking born losers.

Posted by: Micron | Dec 8 2024 18:25 utc | 37

Re: weapons from syria to ukraine

I've seen many videos of older air systems and ground vehicles being seized. Newer weapons and advanced artillery is missing. Russia warned since August about an idlib offensive. The good stuff has been missing from syria for a long time. Russia kept air power there but no ground things even drones. It's been used ukraine a long time ago.

That's been clear from syrias lack of AA and precision munitions. They've been pummeled by Israel for years now, and their strikes from before was some randomly aimed artillery.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 8 2024 18:25 utc | 38

I wonder how long before the headchoppers-for-hire from the former Syria show up in the Ukraine? Maybe a couple weeks when the headchopping party winds down?

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 18:26 utc | 39

@ William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 18:26 utc | 39

Former Syrian territory is going to be very, very busy for a while. It's the good old infighting after victory time. Followed by infighting after first government failures time. Besides, they can't operate as a separate force alongside AFU and any more sporadic mercenary squads isn't going to make any difference.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 18:33 utc | 40

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 8 2024 18:11 utc | 34

that may be true, but judging from those videos showing syrian military personell ditching their uniforms, putting on civilian clothing, and simply leaving, its rather that their "friend" has left them

I'm not going to play armchair general, and certainly not 3d chess master, but the Russians have, apart from those in Ukraine, something like 1.5 million well trained soldiers pretty much just milling about. And of course we know of the prowess of their air power, and their new, formidable munitions. They could have secured the entire country, but yeah, this is very simplistic thinking, I know.

And also premature.

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 18:40 utc | 41

The Syria situation makes the situation more dangerous internally for Putin and it makes it harder for him to sell any Ukraine "peace" deal to the General Staff and the Russian military. The Syria model is exactly what the west wants to do Russia vis a vi Ukraine, eventually wear down the Russian military in the hopes they will just get tired and desert/lay down their arms, anyone thinking this is impossible for Russia is kidding themselves, no army can fight forever , especially with one arm tied behind its back.

The west is not playing by any discernable rules other than to keep adding/expanding the empire. Syria's "territorial" integrity means squat to the west, so do any civilians who may be in the way. Russia's presence in Syria and its backing of the Assad government ultimately meant nothing in terms of crossing any lines. Ultimately Syria is not the hill Russia needs to die on, ultimately Russia can walk away from the Middle East, it can be argued they should have as they were unwilling to use proxies or the Syrian bases in any meaningful way to attack/degrade the West anyway.

The problem is the mentality that it reveals, the endless Minsk/Istanbul/Astana agreements that Putin seems perfectly willing to engage in with the West while Russia and its allies are weakened. The Syria situation makes it less likely that there will be peace in Ukraine. Anyone thinking Russia "traded" Syria for Ukraine is kidding themselves. The Syria situation further emboldens the neocons/empire that they can prevail against Russia if they are patient enough and ironically makes it harder for Putin to capitulate internally and sign the next "Istanbul" agreement.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 18:43 utc | 42

I'm not going to play armchair general

Fooled me. It sure looks like that's exactly what you did. Rather poorly too. "Just secure the entire country, duh!" Stop embarrassing yourself.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 18:44 utc | 43

In Kharkiv, an explosion occurred at the entrance to the police department

In the Slobodsky district of Kharkiv, an explosion occurred near the administrative building of the territorial police department.

This is reported by RegioNews with reference to the press service of the Kharkiv region police.

As previously found out by law enforcement officers, an unknown explosive device detonated near the main entrance to the building today, at about 17 hours.

As a result of the explosion, the facade of the building was damaged. No people were injured.

Police bomb technicians and investigators are conducting an inspection of the scene. Those involved in the crime are identified.

Earlier, law enforcement officers announced a wave of sabotage against police officers.

These kind of reports are popping up with increasing frequency in Ukrainian media outlets; attacks against police stations, press-gang commissioners offices, military vehicles and railway infrastructure among other targets. Still, we must support a nation fighting for “freedom and democracy”, I’m sure because my own national media tells me so...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 18:51 utc | 44

@ silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 18:43 utc | 42

Delusions about "traitorous peace deals" are back on the menu. Somehow they are brought back as an argument, despite claiming that said "deals" are "less likely" in the same damn post now.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 18:55 utc | 45

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 18:43 utc | 42

amazing post

Posted by: salmon | Dec 8 2024 19:03 utc | 46

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 18:55 utc | 45

I understand the frustration, but it's a situation Putin has brought about, so maybe direct your anger at him and the Russian elite.

It's clear Putin wants a deal in Ukraine, he doesn't want to escalate and the longer this war goes on the more potential there is for escalation either in Ukraine or Russia, time is not on his side.

The real question here is what kind of "peace deal" can Putin sell his MOD/Military who I believe are firmly of the belief that the ultimate goal for the US/West is to weaken/destroy the modern Russian state, it's as simple as that.

The real negotiation here is between the Russian elite(Putin) and the Russian military.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 19:14 utc | 47

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 14:12 utc | 3

#########

Only the gruffest of Canadians unquestioningly believe what Trump says.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 8 2024 19:14 utc | 48

Posted by: Jimieus | Dec 8 2024 17:53 utc | 32

The Russians got those bases for supporting Assad. Of course they will have to leave now.

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 8 2024 19:15 utc | 49

My regard for RF will crater if they do same over Kiev

Posted by: paddy | Dec 8 2024 16:18 utc | 20

#########

LOL 😂😂😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 8 2024 19:18 utc | 50

Now that they’re about to be kicked out of Syria, maybe Russia can finally focus its resources on pushing out the “totally collapsed” AFU from Donbass?

Seeing how Putin couldn’t even prevent his “great Ally” from being deposed by a few thousand lightly armed irregulars…we can now understand why he’s terrified of taking on the USA directly!

MOA—can you respond or just cowardly engage in censorship?

You keyboard generals are proven wrong yet again…

Posted by: Zion Rising | Dec 8 2024 19:19 utc | 51

The Oreshnik situation further scares the neocons/empire that they can suffer serious damage against Russia if they are stupid enough and ironically makes it easier for Putin to enforce the December 2021 European security architecture agreement.

There, that has sort of fixed it for you...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 19:19 utc | 52

Gepostet von: silverfoxes | 8. Dez 2024 18:43 UTC | 42

very good assessment.

You can see it in the last interview. Putin / Lavrov are begging for negotiations.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 8 2024 19:22 utc | 53

These losers just can't imagine what victory looks like.

Posted by: Micron | Dec 8 2024 18:25 utc | 37

##########

Vietnam
Korea
Afghanistan

🤣🤣🤣

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 8 2024 19:22 utc | 54

@ silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 19:14 utc | 47

I am not angry, thought I appreciate the concern for my mental health. I do have a question though.

Was president Putin the one to recruit, fund, arm and train multiple armies worth of terrorists, religious extremists and nazis, then sicking them at will around Eurasia with no regard to consequences? I'm sure you will agree it was not him. Therefore none of what is going on is a "situation he has brought on".

Not only is Russian president and country's elites not responsible for the inhuman disasters around the continent, president Putin is one of the only individuals willing and capable to fight the ones actually responsible for the sake of his damn nation.

The only "peace deal" "to be sold" is the one in the minds of communally insane.

I can only recommend everyone confused on the topic to read karlof1's invaluable translations of everything Russian diplomatic core: official statements of anyone from president to ambassadors dating back at least a few months. They have all the answers you seek.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 19:27 utc | 55

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 8 2024 19:14 utc | 48

It’s probably just one of those unfortunate consequences of language localisation, but in my little corner of the world “gruff” is a slang alternative to “fart” as a way to describe the expulsion of the accumulation of digestive gases via the lower tract.

Therefore, Confucius did not say “When three billy goats gruff, the wise man stands upwind”...

Sorry for the off-topic, folks.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 20:09 utc | 56

Treblinka Rising 51

"MOA—can you respond or just cowardly engage in censorship?"

Your sock puppet name indicates you are Nazi pro genocide.
You can blow off, free speech on MOA even for Nazis, but don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

NAZO has buggered itself by bullying a country (Russia) too big to bully.
Racist hatred won out over rationality.
Couldn't happen to nicer Nazis.

Hot tip - go long on VW, Stellantis and Nissan, especially Infiniti.
What's the internet for if not to help eachother out :-)

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 20:28 utc | 57

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 19:14 utc | 47

The real question here is what kind of "peace deal" can Putin sell his MOD/Military who I believe are firmly of the belief that the ultimate goal for the US/West is to weaken/destroy the modern Russian state, it's as simple as that

Indeed. And it's obvious by now that if they want to prevent this outcome they're gonna have to fight...for keeps, no pussyfooting.

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 21:01 utc | 58

Let's remember the adage...

Facists only relinquish power when it's pried from their cold, dead hands

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 21:07 utc | 59

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 20:09 utc | 56

#############

It was a wee bit of wordplay. I never joke about bodily functions when refering to North Americans. Too much hazard of misgendering someone. 😁

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 8 2024 21:09 utc | 60

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 18:26 utc | 39
I wonder how long before the headchoppers-for-hire from the former Syria show up in the Ukraine? Maybe a couple weeks when the headchopping party winds down?
----

Oh. Why can't I be that smart lol

Posted by: freedom fritos | Dec 8 2024 21:22 utc | 61

@zio rising

No, I've watched this site closely for a while and B is definitely unable to objectively view events. It was clear when Aleppo was surrendered Assad was done. Aleppo is the industrial heart of Syria assads control of it was the smallest viable Syria possible. With it gone Assad was done. You can see the tenacity Syria held onto it before but Assad offered no future other than despair and ruin so its people refused to fight for that.

Same thing when ukraine thrust into Kharkov in 2022. B thought it was a trap for Ukraine rather than a Russian withdrawal.

The god of war rewards warriors he doesn't give trophies for participation.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 8 2024 21:44 utc | 62

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 18:26 utc | 39
How long before they show up at a Christmas market?

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 8 2024 21:49 utc | 63

The god of war rewards warriors he doesn't give trophies for participation.

I’m sure the Yuzhmash night shift find comfort in your words.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 21:55 utc | 64

The Syria situation further emboldens the neocons/empire that they can prevail against Russia...
@ silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 18:43 utc | 42

The nuclear ratchet tightens another notch today. My top worry is USraeli PTB, in a triumphal mood, hastening to strike Russia now, while the iron is hot.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 8 2024 22:04 utc | 65

Posted by: john | Dec 8 2024 21:01 utc | 58

Indeed the real negotiations are going to take place between the different Russian power structures, it is clear Putin/Lavrov wish to keep the status qou with the west prior to 2014. They want a peace deal ASAP that will be acceptable to the Russian power structures specifically the military.

Despite all appearances of disagreement in the USA/West there is broad bi partisan agreement on using Ukraine to weaken Russia and as a future platform for bigger attacks via proxy even Trump and his people broadly agree.

Trump's job will be to sell Putin on an an immediate ceasefire with future promises of a broader agreement. However Putin is in a bind given how much blood and treasure has been expended and the non belief of the military in any deal signed.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 22:10 utc | 66

No, I've watched this site closely for a while and B is definitely unable to objectively view events. It was clear when Aleppo was surrendered Assad was done. Aleppo is the industrial heart of Syria assads control of it was the smallest viable Syria possible. With it gone Assad was done. You can see the tenacity Syria held onto it before but Assad offered no future other than despair and ruin so its people refused to fight for that.

Same thing when ukraine thrust into Kharkov in 2022. B thought it was a trap for Ukraine rather than a Russian withdrawal.

The god of war rewards warriors he doesn't give trophies for participation.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 8 2024 21:44 utc | 62

The scales are starting to fall off people's eyes.

You can not fool them indefinitely with fairy tales, at some point the cold hard reality is right there for everyone to see.

Russian doomers were correct in early 2022. Not because they were some clairvoyants, but because past behavior is the best predictor of future actions and they had seen that movie many times in the past already, so when the betrayal at the end of March 2022 happened, it was a confirmation that nothing has changed after the brief window of hope given by the previous few weeks. And they have been correct ever since.

Always remember -- Putin has been fighting the angry patriots internally much more vigorously than the Ukronazis. The former were all arrested at some point and some are still in jail, the latter have not been touched at all. Very telling about real priorities

But it is easy to spin fairy tales about multipolarity and what strategic geniuses Putin and Lavrov are to a Western audience that has no knowledge of how the USSR collapsed and what the internal reality of Russia has been ever since. Not just easy, profitable too. Some people made a lot of money off that particular genre of grift.

Because there was a captive audience that craved being told how Putin is the white knight who will save the world from the evils of globohomo. That audience didn't want to hear the truth, and the market naturally catered to what it wanted to hear. Creating an echo chamber.

Speaking of market, here is another ugly truth -- the vast majority of the people in that echo chamber are conservative right and libertarian leaning. Which is a big factor in the whole tragedy -- the real opposition to Putin is the communists, and Russia is compromised internally precisely by the fact that it is a neoliberal "free market" economy. All of the shit that was allowed by Putin was unthinkable in Soviet times. Because communists were ready to die for something else than money. The people running modern Russia not so much.

The only hope for Russia now is for some kind of an alliance between the military, the communists, and perhaps the church, that will take out the oligarchy and start fighting for the survival of the country for real.

That is the kind of analysis you need to be reading. Not what The Duran and Martyanov have been serving for the last three years...

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:12 utc | 67

"The nuclear ratchet tightens another notch today. My top worry is USraeli PTB, in a triumphal mood, hastening to strike Russia now, while the iron is hot."

I don't believe this is a high probability risk, Israel has very warm relations with Putin and the US is about to embrace negotiations via Trump.

The real risk here for Russia is Putin and the Russian elite signing some shitty ceasefire deal.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 22:14 utc | 68

From the moment trump made the appointments I mentioned that something like that might be in the cards.
To seal a reasonable deal for RF I’m waiting for the west to drop Romania … at least the base there

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 15:09 utc | 10

How does a "deal" without a guarantor work?

Posted by: too scents | Dec 8 2024 16:04 utc | 18

First you'd have to assume that your speculation is correct, and then you'd have to assume the Kremlin would be crazy enough to believe them.

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 16:32 utc | 23

Between big boys?

Let us start by saying that the west advance in syria was a proof of faith in RF's word.

Any advance like we saw could be slaughterd by the air force with extreme prejudice. And oild fields and us bases could be azeled to oblivion.

Now, it the west does not allow reinforcements, the situation can be reversible, and in ukraine things can be seen or felt, as complying with the agreement.

And we know nothing of unkown effects, the 300 bln could be unblocked (and RF could use some hard dollars) and nobody would be any wiser.

Or maybe you're right and I am wrong, and as others mentioned this was a move to force RF to detour forces from ukraine to syria because something big is comming.

There is one point infavo of this later interpretation, still a lot of trolls and care bears here...

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 8 2024 22:16 utc | 69

Despite all appearances of disagreement in the USA/West there is broad bi partisan agreement on using Ukraine to weaken Russia

Presumably these “appearances of disagreement” include German opinion polls, French votes of no confidence and Romanian court decisions? Or assassination attempts on elected Slovakian Prime Ministers? Or how about all those presidents who lose elections but unilaterally decide to hold on to office?

I’m sure this is all very free, democratic and “bi partisan” in your Daily Telegraph-tier world...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 22:25 utc | 70

How does a "deal" without a guarantor work?

Posted by: too scents | Dec 8 2024 16:04 utc | 18

Lol. The "guarantor" is Oreshnik and its bigger brothers! Russia ain't never gunna play THAT "treaty" GAME again. Putin is gunna position RF once and for all as a non-screwable power into the 21stC. He's now got LOTS of military and economic allies to help with the task. Imo, Syria is small chips within his big plan.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 8 2024 22:29 utc | 71

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:12 utc | 67

In all your undoubtedly detailed research and analysis, I don’t suppose you’ve managed to stumble across any recent (as in the last two weeks) photos or videos of general views of the Yuzhmah factory complex? If you have, I’m sure many hereabouts would be grateful for the links.

What are your views on the hermetic sealing of information relating to the Oreshnik deployment?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 22:35 utc | 72

Anyone have links to videos showing North Korean troops in Ukraine or Kursk?

BBC and CNN said they were there so they must be there somewhere, can’t imagine those esteemed organisations would lie to us.

Although the RAND corporation did publish an article a year or so ago saying that a fake story about North Koreans in Ukraine could be used to justify, for instance, deep missile strikes into Russia and - who knows - get South Korea to send weapons to Ukronazis.

Did NAZO follow that RAND hymnsheet to the letter? I noticed this odd coup attempt in South Korea where their pro-neocon president tried to establish martial law. Is the old guy having an affair with Victoria Nulend? Anyway looks like another CIA coup failure. Zelensky can keep dreaming about a South Korean weapons industry. But Korean reality moved in Russia’s favour. Suck that up and like it Biden - think of it as an ice cream cone.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 22:46 utc | 73

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:12 utc | 67

Of course you always exaggerate wildly, but grosso modo I agree with you...Sooner or later there will be an alliance between the Stavka and the commanders of the military districts on the one hand, and the communist party and other actors on the other...The Kremlin made to many very costly mistakes (material wise and immaterial) that could have been avoided without exception... Idlib is a prime example of this, Escobar, for example, is completely right... In retrospect, that seems almost crazy.

Posted by: Larsbo | Dec 8 2024 22:49 utc | 74

In all your undoubtedly detailed research and analysis, I don’t suppose you’ve managed to stumble across any recent (as in the last two weeks) photos or videos of general views of the Yuzhmah factory complex? If you have, I’m sure many hereabouts would be grateful for the links.

What are your views on the hermetic sealing of information relating to the Oreshnik deployment?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 22:35 utc | 72

The Oreshnik is yet another bluff.

Putin had in its hands all the tools needed to properly defend Russia a very long time ago. But he never dared use them. One more does not change all that much if that unwillingness to act is still there.

Take a look at North Korea. Does it have as much or as advanced weaponry as Russia? No. Does anyone dare fire even a single bullet into it? No. Because what they have is sufficient for deterrence and they are ready to use it.

[Deterrence] = [Available Military-Technical Means] x [Readiness to Use Them].

But even infinity multiplied by zero is still zero.

Also, take a look at what Israel did. On the ground it lost. They didn't take a single village from Hezbollah in ground-level combat, but they carried out a series of masterful decapitation strikes, and that decided everything.

Why is Putin not doing the same? Prominent banker families, investment fund CEOs, Silicon Valley oligarchs, old-money aristocrats still pulling strings from behind the scenes, etc. It is not an infinite number of people that are behind the war on Russia. Take them out. You don't have enough missiles? Well, build more. Or add more MIRVs/MaRVs. Here is where something like the Oreshnik might indeed help -- 36 independently precisely targetable small sub-kiloton-range nukes on a single missile would go a long way towards solving that problem, provided they are indeed independently and precisely targetable and can be spread over a wide area. But it again comes back to the willingness to use them.

But I can tell you why Putin is not doing the same -- because his role throughout this quarter of a century has been to make sure the legacy of the 1990s is cemented for the foreseeable future, i.e. to defend the interests of the Russian oligarchy. An oligarchy that also happens to mostly not be ethnically Russian (and not from any of the other native ethnic groups either), with all that comes with it in terms of suspect loyalties, a taboo topic that has to be seriously confronted, no more burying heads in the sand and covering one's eyes to the truth. But that is not even needed to explain what is happening (though it does play a huge role in the Syrian catastrophe) -- just on the basis of issues of class and economic interests, the Russian oligarchy sees more in common between itself and the Western oligarchy than it does between itself and the people of Russia, so it will gladly sell the latter to the former. Some development and some pushback against the West's encroachment is permitted within these contraints, but only within certain limits.

That's what it comes down to.

In contrast, in North Korea they wisely cut off all corrosive Western influence and have stuck to a fullly state-run Stalinist economy with no independent centers of power. Which is why their people may not feel 100% safe from their own government, but they sure as hell don't have to wake up every day thinking about Western drones and missiles falling on their heads, the way ever expanding swaths of Russian territory do now.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:57 utc | 75

The Oreshnik is yet another bluff.

Assertion is not proof; meanwhile, I note your avoidance of my hinted request for photographic/video evidence of Yuzhmash still existing as a functioning entity.

Why is that still so difficult to provide? Shouldn’t it be straightforward?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 23:08 utc | 76

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:57 utc | 75
---

Did Putin SVO Ukraine at the oligarchs' behest? Is he trying to act patriotically on behalf of ethnic Russians? If he did take out the oligarchs, what would be the fallout, personally for him? Or would he not cut his own throat (financially)?

Posted by: freedom fritos | Dec 8 2024 23:11 utc | 77

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 22:57 utc |

Agreed, I have wondered what all thd fuss is about Oreshnik, ultimately as you point out these weapons are worthless if you are not willing to use them. I have always pointed out the NK example, their arsenal is puny compared to Russia but the west estimates they are willing to use them and hence are left alone, not one single bullet is fired in there.

This is not the case with Russia and more and more I wonder if Putin is simply there to wind down/wear down the Russian nationalists in order to allow Russia to have a controlled break up. In any case as others have pointed out he has been harder/imprisoned more Russian nationalists than he has Western facilitarors behind the Ukranian project.

I believe Prigo was onto something and i believe he had support within the broad military.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 23:16 utc | 78

Zelensky Rejects Trump's Peace Call

https://www.rt.com/news/608988-zelensky-trump-ceasefire-talks/

"Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has rejected a call by US President-elect Donald Trump for an immediate truce and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia..."

Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 8 2024 18:12 utc | 35

Which saves Putin the trouble of rejecting it, but in more diplomatic language. And the West can go on indulging itself in the fantasy that as soon as they offer a ceasefire deal, Putin will jump at the offer like a dog after a bone.

Posted by: Mike R | Dec 8 2024 23:21 utc | 79

Lots and lots of assertions masquerading as fact, with various posts claiming to have a unique insight and inside info that no-one else knows, maybe because the rest of us are actually plebs and serfs, and these elitist, racist know-it-alls have closeted themselves in a circle-jerking clique.

Just show me the effing photos of Yuzhmash still standing, please; what part of that do you gaffots not understand?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 23:25 utc | 80

Did Putin SVO Ukraine at the oligarchs' behest? Is he trying to act patriotically on behalf of ethnic Russians? If he did take out the oligarchs, what would be the fallout, personally for him? Or would he not cut his own throat (financially)?

Posted by: freedom fritos | Dec 8 2024 23:11 utc | 77

We don't have internal information. We can only speculate.

We also don't know what Putin's personal convictions are. There is the worst-case scenario in which he is an outright traitor, and then there is the one in which they hold him hostage through various mechanisms. Including the version of him being a true patriot who nevertheless sincerely feels he cannot openly go against the oligarchs because if he does, that might trigger the dissolution of the country, so he is stalling for time trying to resolve that somehow.

But I don't see the latter as truly supported by the available public information. Too many unforgivable and completely avoidable even under very strong oligarchic pressure mistake were made. And too many clearly bad characters are very close to him, and they don't need to be.

Why the SMO was even started in the first place is a mystery.

In retrospect it looks like a bluff that was immediately called.

It does look like the Russian oligarchy wanted better terms in the relationship with the West, which is, in case it needs reminding, that the Russian oligarchy hands over Russia's natural resources to the West for a small fraction of their real worth, in exchange for which they get a cut of the loot. At some point in the 2000s both parties decided they are no longer satisfied with how much they were getting out of this, thus the conflict.

But here is the tragedy of it all -- in order to win that conflict, the Russian oligarchy would have to agree on going back to some kind of state-centralized, practically communist economy, even if just for the duration of the war. Which will likely work quite well and then there will be no return to how things were. In simple terms, they risk losing everything if they try to win. But in the same time, again, they were trying to get a better deal. Thus the SMO -- they likely conceded to the pressure from the General Staff as an attempt to get such a deal. However, their optimal solution is surrender as long as they keep their economic power -- a bad deal is better than losing everything.

Note also that all the economic leverage the West has derives directly from the fact that Russia is run by such an oligarchy. Why should Russia depend on raw material exports and not make everything it needs locally? There is no other country in the world other than perhaps the US that has the natural resources and technological capacity to be self sufficient (the US is not self sufficient because of suburbia, but if it was to scale down consumption to Russian levels, it could be). But local manufacturing of high-tech good is directly sabotaged by the natural resource extraction oligarchs, because if it was to take off to the necessary levels, several bad for them things would happen -- first, other centers of economic power would emerge, centered around the local manufacturing economy, second, there would be less exports of natural resources (as they would go towards local production) meaning less revenue for them and thus less power, and third, connections with the West would decrease, and these people are just mentally broken on that issue, they desperately want to be Western (a disease that has plagued Russian elites for centuries).

Sanctions have had a lot less of an effect than intended, but Russia still feels it has to cozy up to the Turks, the Indians and the Chinese because of them. The USSR didn't have to -- it made everything it needed locally -- and if Russian elites wished it to be, so could Russia.

You can probably see how various failures cascade from there.

Also note that those considerations above about how much each party is getting out of various deals are not the whole story at all.

The much more sinister and deeper part of it is that the West never gave up on Operation Barbarossa -- a dismemberment and conquest of Russia, even genocide of the Russian people, are all very much in the plans, and it is not even hidden anymore.

Presumably people in the General Staff sees the threat clearly and forced the beginning of the SMO as there was no other option left. But were then once again sabotaged by the oligarchy.

The West doesn't have that problem -- the Western oligarchy is out to pillage and loot the whole world, the military and intelligence agencies is there to make it happen. There is complete synergy there.

In Russia they are largely opposed, and when they are not opposed, it is because of corrosive influence on the military by the oligarchy.

When you have two sides, one of which does and the other doesn't have such a fundamental internal weakness, who is more likely to win?

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 23:34 utc | 81

@78 If you think Russia's weapons are worthless....
Well f it then lets just push the buttons and get this show on the road. Let the nukes fly!
Maybe then you can get a up front and personal experience on exactly how well those useless Oreshnik or Sarmat missiles work.
As for nobody attacking North Korea? They have nothing except a big pile of weapons and a 1.3 million man army. Who would want to start a bloody war with them for no gain?
Russia is a vast storehouse of treasures that the west's greed desires. So the risk of obtaining Russia's wealth, is worth blowing up the world.

Posted by: golddigger | Dec 8 2024 23:37 utc | 82

This is not the case with Russia and more and more I wonder if Putin is simply there to wind down/wear down the Russian nationalists in order to allow Russia to have a controlled break up. In any case as others have pointed out he has been harder/imprisoned more Russian nationalists than he has Western facilitarors behind the Ukranian project.

I believe Prigo was onto something and i believe he had support within the broad military.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 23:16 utc | 78

That is the big fear.

The problem is what to do in such a situation.

Usually this is when the military does a coup. But that experiment was run in August 1991 and we know what happened -- the USSR dissolved shortly after.

So you run the risk of triggering what you are trying to avert if you don't play it perfectly...

Prigo clearly didn't, and we saw what happened. BTW, the arrests of Russian nationalists happened shortly after the Wagner rebellion. As did Surovikin's exile.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 23:45 utc | 83

We don't have internal information. We can only speculate.

Then your whole post becomes a word salad.

Any luck on tracking down photos or videos from the vicinity of the Yuzhmash site yet?

Asking for a friend...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 23:46 utc | 84

Oh, and just before I sign off for the night, here’s some fun:

In Kiev, there was a fight at the venue of the event of LGBT activists: police comment

Law enforcement officers began criminal proceedings on the fact of a collision at the place where the event of a public organization was supposed to take place"KyivPride"

This was reported by the metropolitan police, reports RegioNews .

According to the police, "oppositely minded youth" also came to the event of LGBT activists. These people made a scuffle with law enforcement officers who provided protection of public order.

Law enforcement officers detained 9 of the most active participants, including three minors. Administrative protocols were drawn up against the detainees for minor hooliganism and malicious disobedience to the legal request of a police officer. The report notes that police officers "conducted explanatory work" with the parents of minors.

Investigators also opened criminal proceedings under the article "Hooliganism" of the Criminal Code, which provides for up to four years in prison.

We will add that earlier in" Kyivpride " announced the cancellation of the event in the space of Office Repair Together, because unknown assailants attacked the place where they were going to hold a lecture.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 23:52 utc | 85

DS map update:

https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/48.2182679/37.8396606

Overall analysis:

Another weak day for the RFA, with only 8.6 kmsq taken. Much less than the NOV pace of 23/day. Strategically, the moves near Shevchenko are interesting, in getting closer to Pokrovsk, itself.

Specific changes, S to N:

1. 1.0 kmsq in/near Trudove. Uspenivka pocket.

2. 0.1 kmsq in Kurakhove.

3. 1.6 kmsq N of Pushkine. Pokrovsk greater area (broad west push).

4. 1.2 kmsq SW of Shevchenko.

5. 4.7 kmsq S of Shevchenko and entering the town itself.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 8 2024 23:58 utc | 86

Posted by: ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 23:34 utc | 81

Thank you, I have a lot of back-reading to do.

Posted by: freedom fritos | Dec 9 2024 0:28 utc | 87

Asking for a friend...
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 8 2024 23:46 utc | 84

Maybe it's a Britishism beyond my ken, but I don't get it: "Asking for a friend" sounds blatantly insincere, and it therefore prompts a giggle. But I really don't get it, truth be told: Why would your curiosity (in this case, regarding photographic evidence of damage to Yuzhmash) be more discreetly diverted onto an imaginary companion?

Admittedly this question is like analyzing Russian humor: beyond impossible.

Asking for a friend...

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 9 2024 0:28 utc | 88

You can see the alignment happening in real time that is taking place in terms of narrative that hopes to create the space for Putin to agree to a cease fire.

Mercouris is out there spinning his web that if only Assad had negotiated with Erdogan(NATO,US,West) he would still be ruling Syria, all this is happening according to Mercouris because of a lack of negotiations. He forgets or omits that there was a negotation via the Astana process but Turkey(NATO) conveniently disregarded it.

Some say Iran is the biggest loser but I have a different view, this should open their eyes that they cannot rely on external powers like Russia to "negotiate" their safety. They must rely on self sufficiency and deterrence as much as possible much like NK if they hope to survive in the coming years. The Russians simply cannot be relied on, especially when it comes to Russia's "gentlemen" agreements to strike internally at countries as long as they don't target Russian assets which was the agreement in Syria, no doubt this had to wreck morale within the Syrian army, looking back at it, the Russian outposts in the Golan were not necessarily to prevent Israel from doing anything but rather might have been to prevent any Syrian response, etc.

I saw an interview with professor Mahrandi a few weeks ago were he suggested Iran could not ultimately rely on Russia and the way he said it was curious.

In any case now the cards are on the table for Iran, protect yourself and establish deterrence and watch your army morale because you are next.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 9 2024 0:43 utc | 89

Anonymous 86

You missed out significant advances in Toretsk and in the Kursk region. Small Chasiv Yar gains also.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 9 2024 0:44 utc | 90

That is the big fear.

The problem is what to do in such a situation.

Prigo clearly didn't, and we saw what happened. BTW, the arrests of Russian nationalists happened shortly after the Wagner rebellion. As did Surovikin's exile.

Yes, this latest Syrian development comes at an inopportune time for the Kremlin, they desperately want negotiations with Trump that allow Putin to save face but they have to watch the nationalist/military side because that will be where the opposition will come from to any "immediate ceasefire/Minsk/Instanbul" agreements. Now the nationalists internally can point to Syria and say what happened with "Astana". It makes it harder for Putin to agree to any cease fire in an attempt to curry favor with the Trump administration.

I would not rule out a coup within Russia depending on what Putin agrees, it will be a dangerous time for him as if he agrees to another Minsk/Istanbul it will be patently clearly he is setting up another Idlib except this time in Ukraine.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 9 2024 0:51 utc | 91

... ultimately as you point out these weapons are worthless if you are not willing to use them.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 8 2024 23:16 utc | 78

What a fkn moronic thing to say. And are nukes "worthless" in terms of national defences simply because they have not ever been fired (since 1945). I guarantee you Oreshnik, in itself and via its one strike we have seen thus far, is not "worthless" as a similar deterrent. RF will certainly use it again given the right provocation ... only next time even more effectively.

Posted by: Wtf | Dec 9 2024 0:58 utc | 92

Russian Army Advanced In Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk Directions

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue developing their offensive on the Donbass frontlines. The Russian army is storming Kurakhovo and rapidly approaches Pokrovsk.

As a result of offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian troops advanced and took control of about 6 more square kilometers along the southern bank of the Solena River during the day. According to preliminary reports, the village of Vozrozhdenie came under their control. The settlement is located less than 4 km south of Pokrovsk.

Russian troops have gained a foothold on the western outskirts of Shevchenko. They advanced along the forest area north of Novotroitskiy and south along the ravine. Russian troops continue attacks in the eastern part of the village of Zorya. From the recently captured Novy Trud, they launched assault on Zelene and approached Dachenskoye. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are rapidly digging trenches, trying to strengthen defenses in the fields to the north.

In the city of Kurakhovo, intense fighting continues along Zaporizhia and Soborny Avenues. Fighting is also ongoing in the Yuzhny microdistrict and on the outskirts south of the city, where Russian troops are steadily expanding their control zone.

On the southern flank, the Ukrainian positions do not deteriorating every day. Fighting has been ongoing for several days in the area of the farm on the northern outskirts of Uspenovka, the main Ukrainian stronghold south of Kurakhovo. The battles for Elizavetovka and for Constantinopleske continue. Russian forces continue grinding Ukrainian forces in the pocket of their resistance east of Uspenovka. Ukrainian soldiers are still prohibited to leave positions in the villages, trying to resist under heavy Russian fire, cut off from the necessary supplies and under the threat of complete encirclement.

The Russian army destroys the entire Ukrainian defense in the Southern Donetsk direction, bypasses the Ukrainian strongholds on the flanks, captures Ukrainian garrisons in the pincer grip. The defending Ukrainian groups are already grinded in operational encirclement. The Ukrainian defense on a large sector of the front is bursting at the seams.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 9 2024 1:00 utc | 93

Just an FYI:

The reason the real Ukraine losses are never reported accurately is because then all those dead on the payroll can be audited and their pay traced back to Zelensky, Flimsy Graham, Steve Daines, Nancy Pelosi and all the other crooks and tiny hats making money on the dead.

Zelensky says 43000? The Russian estimate somehwere in the neighborhood of 750,000. They should know. They had to pick up what was left of all those dead Ukrainians that the psycopaths in DC, Tel Aviv, New York, London, Brussels and Basel. And we're not even talking about the money the MIC made for overpriced junk that doesn't work.

Posted by: Nooneuknow | Dec 9 2024 1:01 utc | 94

I'm reading a lot of pessimistic silliness here.

Russia doesn't exist to fulfill the needs of Iran, Syria or Palestine and no one has any right to expect otherwise. Putin is a nationalist dealing with other nationalists. On that level, they can understand each other.

I am reading a whole lot of big hints that Trump is getting tired of Zelensky's foolishness - and that should be no surprise. Making remarks about cutting Ukr aid (together with Speaker Johnson), getting hit with Zelensky's rejection of whatever Trump suggests and so on.

Is there a hypothesis that Assad failed because he was stubborn and wouldn't negotiate? Well, guess who's headed down the same path of being stupid - with the only difference being that he ain't gonna get exile in Moscow

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 9 2024 1:14 utc | 95

The Russian army destroys the entire Ukrainian defense in the Southern Donetsk direction, bypasses the Ukrainian strongholds on the flanks, captures Ukrainian garrisons in the pincer grip. The defending Ukrainian groups are already grinded in operational encirclement. The Ukrainian defense on a large sector of the front is bursting at the seams.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 9 2024 1:00 utc | 93

The thick ukes still falling for the good ole pincer movement. Haha!

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Dec 9 2024 1:19 utc | 96

silverfox // 91

Why a coup in Russia? Why not a coup in England? Why not a coup in Germany? Why not a coup in France? Why not a coup in England, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, all performed by rabid Christians who exterminate the satanists (Georgescue's words) running those governments?

My point, why do the trolls always lovingly obsess over coups in Russia? Why don't they salivate over the possibility of coups anywhere else, especially given the prolonged and painfully obvious military failures of so many western governments?

It gets tiresome reading their weird fetishistic fantasies about Russia

Posted by: Nobody Special | Dec 9 2024 1:32 utc | 97

Englishman in NY | Dec 8 2024 22:29 utc | 71
*** Lol. The "guarantor" is Oreshnik and its bigger brothers! Russia ain't never gunna play THAT "treaty" GAME again. Putin is gunna position RF once and for all as a non-screwable power into the 21stC. He's now got LOTS of military and economic allies to help with the task. Imo, Syria is small chips within his big plan.***

But he's got the mindset of a neoliberal Atlanticist who keeps a cultist creature such as Nabulina in charge of the central bank ... and is susceptible to scam "treaty" deals from various NATO fronters.
Along with a compulsion to indulge Zionist interests, liberals and Oligarchs.
Which would include his WEF chums....
Given the persistent weaknesses of the present regime there is very real danger of Russia getting screwed again.

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 9 2024 1:35 utc | 98

The Ukrainian defense on a large sector of the front is bursting at the seams.

@ HERMIUS | Dec 9 2024 1:00 utc | 93

IMO the goal is to reach the borders of the 4 oblasts which became russian. Lugansk is almost complete, donetstsk on its way, Kherson a way to go, zaparozhia a way to go too. Once the borders are reached, a deal will be made. Thats my opinion

Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Dec 9 2024 1:36 utc | 99

ANON2022 | Dec 8 2024 23:34 utc | 81 ...

Completely agree. Far too much has not been seen to.

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 9 2024 1:50 utc | 100