News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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December 5, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-291
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Micron tries to divert us to Syria yay yay Russia loses
BUT the reality is simple. the USA/NATO is at war with Russia. Let us not pretend.
First this war started in 2008 -2014 as just an undermining, so perhaps not yet a full on war. The undermining was in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine and attempted in Belarus and all the Stans. Plan A undermine and destabilize all Russian allies especially those on the borders.
Second when Russia took action to minimise damage and seized Crimea, the USA rather than a full on conflict went to Proxy no 2 ie Syria and really upped the action, aligning itself with Turkey who stood to gain the North ie Aleppo. This was plan B. Then those pesky Russians actually intervened, stopping the success of this Plan B. Actually it would probably have morphed into a full on Russia/NATO conflict but then there was Trump. Say what you like about Trump but he did not escalate the conflict at this point. He lacked strength or competence to actually end it but he did not inflame it and those actions he did take were very much staged theatre.
Third with Syria at a stalemate and the new Biden regime, back to Plan A but more forcefully. Turn up the heat on Russia (let’s call it Plan A2) This time it was very much closer to a full on hot conflict, but certainly from Russia but also USA, there was reluctance to go the whole WWIII bit. Russia countered with a strong attack launching the SMO but this was not really successful although not disastrous either. This phase ended with the collapsed Istanbul negotiations.
Fourth the hubris phase. yes NATO can win this proxy war. No need for WWIII just lots and lots of arms to Ukraine. War by proxy. Call it Plan C. This worked for 12-18 months – it forced some Russia withdrawal. Then the great Kiev offensive fell in a heap. Russia started to make serious advances and by mid 2024 it was clear something had to change.
Fifth directly attack Russia. Plan D the Kursk offensive. Intended to slow/stop Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkov. Now after four months it is obvious to everyone that this invasion was not going to work. They reacted by sending more serious weapons directed at Russia plus the evil North Korean hype. Clearly NATO nations became publicly part of the action, not longer just puppet masters standing back. Russia replied with a hazelnut. Whoops er um111 Plan D is a bit of a risk folks.
Sixth. With the nut driven shake up of NATO time for a new plan. Actually an old one. Let us revisit plan B ie undermine Russia via Syria again. Come on Turkey you know you want to. And just to add variety we will shake Russia in the far east using our obedient colony of South Korea. Let us call in Plan B2. Now the Korean bit seems to have hit a hurdle and we need to sort out the war in Lebanon to allow us to be successful, hence the ceasefire. So here we are again. Russia will probably have no choice but to divert resources to help Syria. We are now in watch and wait, but just as Plan B in 2016 put us close to the brink of WWIII, so it does again today in 2024.
Posted by: watcher | Dec 5 2024 21:55 utc | 101
@grunzt | Dec 5 2024 20:49 utc | 86
>>Why is Friedrich Merz so aggressive? …
Several here contribute pieces of the puzzle I think. Non-Germans at MoA, provided they think about Germany at all, think about its foreign policy. But Germans themselves live there, and think about a hundred other things (which may or may not be rational) when voting. The war hasn’t really hit home yet, esp. when Putin prefers to “fight” a NATO-Russia war as one-way traffic, for more and less valid reasons. And to connect the dots on geopolitics, inflation, NS2, and deindustrialization you have to swim against a tide of MSM misdirection; even if you could do it cognitively, you wouldn’t Go There and become a conspiracy-theorist or, worse, a Putinversteher. So with the voters out to lunch, Gen. Gerasimov turning his ire on hapless Ukies only, and on the other side a Dark Throne which ruthlessly punishes non-compliance: how’d you set your sails if you were in politics?
Both your handle and your post suggest that you’re indeed German, right? Then you’ll know the Hameln fairy tale? For the good townsfolk, shit became real only once it touched their own children. And so it’ll be with the Germans at large; can’t say that I pity them too much.
Already years ago there was a VVD (Liberal, whatever that means nowadays) campaign ad “A vote against the Leader is a vote for Putin.” I warned my parents how this was complete Ukrainization of The Netherlands in my eyes. This was not about Rutte, but about a whole population who apparently likes such tough talk–from a mouse against the planet’s preeminent nuclear power. Needless to say, they were completely sans souci. As @Passerby | Dec 5 2024 21:17 utc | 94 also notices, everything is just fine–until it isn’t.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 22:04 utc | 102
Today, in the newspaper welt: a German opinion poll “What worries you?”
Answer: 1. Economy 2. Migration 3. Armed conflicts
What I found interesting is that, according to the poll, no matter what the problem, Green voters always think there is little reason to worry.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 5 2024 21:17 utc | 94
It’s because they don’t live in a real world, just some la la land full of fluffy warm things.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 5 2024 22:18 utc | 103
Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 5 2024 21:41 utc | 99
A further thought, and something of a digression, but many years ago I found myself entangled in a mess resulting from some people believing there were 1000 bytes in a kilobyte, whilst others believed there were 1024 bytes. I still get a nervous tic when I remember those discussions…
“Why have we run out of storage?”…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:18 utc | 104
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 20:31 utc | 82
All of those that have been so eager to have Russia smash Ukraine, in 1 day, 1 month, 1 year, etc. neglect to consider this is a NATO war and Russia has many, many thousands of miles of border.
In the same way that the U.S. seems to be wanting to start WWIII (so long as they can keep Russia from Nuking the top 50 U.S. cities and now with the Hazelnut, keep Russia from killing the D.C. Warmongers and Billionaires snug in their Safe Space Bunkers}, Russia has to be ready for the cheap shot of NATO or the U.S. from starting an action somewhere else in Russia, if the Great Ukrainian Gamble fails.
Slow strangulation of Ukraine is good strategy
Posted by: kupkee | Dec 5 2024 22:20 utc | 105
whilst others believed there were 1024 bytes
If you include the zero it counts to 1023 which is still 1024 bytes.
But you’re now talking nibbles bits bytes and buckets..
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 5 2024 22:23 utc | 106
@ grunzt, §86:
Well, the Germans have joined the English in reeling under a tsunami of wall-to-wall propaganda.
See what Goebbels managed to do to the Germans 1933-45. Well you´re getting it again from the American-controlled government and press. But this time England´s also getting it. And neither country´s populations are aware that propaganda, like advertizing, works. And it is as effective on the educated and intelligent as it is on anyone else.
Control of The Narrative™ is their most powerful weapon.
Posted by: John Marks | Dec 5 2024 22:29 utc | 107
@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 21:39 utc | 97
>>What device/OS are you using to post?
Firefox on Windows; but I don’t think that’s the point, see below.
>>Because something has screwed up your formatting to the point of illegibility; random newlines appearing halfway through sentences completely destroy any coherence.
All is fine when I look at it here. But that is not to brush off your comment, of course it should be convenient for you and others to read. Think I got it and it’s not the OS: I have the luxury of sitting at a 43″ 4k gaming monitor, so I can stretch the MoA window to a generous width with space to spare, in which case my formatting made sense as a way of limiting the text width. If I experiment and squeeze my browser window, I see how my post may look awful on a phone etc. So from now on I’ll do “hard” newlines only for paragraph breaks. Hope this helps, and thanks for mentioning it.
————————
@Oliver Krug | Dec 5 2024 21:40 utc | 98
>>That’s easy to explain: the Greens are an evangelical sect; They are convinced that they know exactly what is right and what is wrong.
Lots of that going on elsewhere too. 🙂 But you’re right, degrees matter. In fact, your cult analogy deserves elaboration: there’s the sheep and then there is the cult leadership. (E.g., L. Ron Hubbard “If you really want to get rich, start a religion.”) At the top, Germans have explained me that the Greens know exactly what they’re doing: they’ve cultivated ties to the German arms industry, because they know full well that they’re running a pro-war party whose policies should interest that constituency. It’s deeply corrupt. Fraulein Bearbock may be an … interesting case: a sheep who got a bit too far for her own good? Seems the folks in Beijing were not charmed.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 22:35 utc | 108
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 5 2024 22:23 utc | 106
There are 10 kinds of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don’t…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:36 utc | 109
Control of The Narrative™ is their most powerful weapon.
Posted by: John Marks | Dec 5 2024 22:29 utc | 107
—
Hallelujah!
Posted by: too scents | Dec 5 2024 22:37 utc | 110
There are 10 kinds of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don’t…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:36 utc | 109
Do you mean 01 types of people?
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 5 2024 22:44 utc | 111
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 22:35 utc | 108
Thanks for responding, FYI I am using Firefox in a Linux distro, running on a 16×9 laptop screen and your earlier post was horribly scrambled, which is why I raised a “ticket”.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:45 utc | 112
watcher | Dec 5 2024 21:55 utc | 101
That was a nice summary, but still too much detail.
All you really need to know is biology: all life forms compete over scarce resources by attempting to expand and adapt in their particular environment(s) in order to secure the most advantageous position to ensure their own continuity.
Empire, being merely an aggregation of these same principles writ large, doesn’t need to be analyzed for individual motives or tactics. Rather, like a person who eats each day without any real thought or consideration, the imperial imperative is to attack, defeat and acquire simply as the very definition of its existence.
MoA commenters get bent out of shape castigating behavior that to empire is purely natural as justification in its own quest for survival.
If Russia/China want peace, the beast must be stayed. Any area of opportunity will be exploited, so it’s fruitless to become exasperated or upset over some kind of perceived ‘rules’.
The world is dealing with a killing machine that can’t be reasoned with.
Posted by: Markw | Dec 5 2024 22:48 utc | 113
Meanwhile,back at the ranch:
In Odessa, a man stretched out a [TCC] employee on the car door, a military man was hospitalized
In Odessa, a man handed an employee of the [TCC] to the car door. The serviceman was seriously injured
This is reported by RegioNews with reference to the Odessa Regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center on Facebook .
As noted in the [TCC], a soldier of the regional military enlistment office today, December 5, carried out alerts to the civilian population.
“The driver aggressively refused to show legal requirements to show military registration documents, and then started driving the car, as a result of which he” stretched” the serviceman to the vehicle door for a considerable distance,” the [TCC] said.
As a result, the serviceman received a concussion and was forced to seek medical help. He was hospitalized.
The [TCC] stressed that for illegal actions against the Ukrainian military, they will be held accountable in accordance with the legislation of Ukraine.
https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/odesskaya/1733428689-v-odesi-cholovik-protyagnuv-spivrobitnika-ttsk-na-dveryah-avtomobilya-viyskovogo-gospitalizuvali (via translation add-on, with [edits].)
Yep, seems as if Ukrainian mobilisation is all going smoothly, with absolutely no hiccups or resistance from the hapless targets…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:56 utc | 114
Control of The Narrative™ is their most powerful weapon.
Posted by: John Marks | Dec 5 2024 22:29 utc | 107
—
Check out the social hierarchy (caste system) of any culture, past or present, western or eastern.
You’ll notice the priestly class is always número #1, with military (warriors) following in the second slot.
Many confuse priests with religion. While it’s an important part of the control function, it still only serves a subsidiary role to the real key, which is defining, rationalizing and enforcing the very nature or “essence” of the state itself.
Again it’s not necessary to complain, criticize or mock those held under the sway of propaganda; it works because the vast majority of people were born with a strong ‘belief’ gene.
Rather, the name of the game is to have this shit figured out and play it to your best personal asvantage.
Posted by: Markw | Dec 5 2024 23:06 utc | 115
@salmon 28
Quote
”
I do not understand why Russia still talks to US army.”
6/4/2014
What it is that lavrov is smoking ? Must be very potent hallucinogen. He still talks of negotiation with Ukraine junta after Odessa atrocities by the Zionist and fascists goons? Thereby giving legitimacy to the kieve junta despite all crimes?
The east ukraininas shouldn’t wait for russian help because Rus leadership is sold out and feel satisfied as junior member of west with a few crumbs under the table- (though even then Russia will get nothing –remember 90s
Posted by: Sam | Dec 5 2024 23:11 utc | 116
Putin was warned long time ago about his treachery of potential allies like Venezuela, Iran,Yemen -all those who could have engaged the west with their arms if had been supplied by Russia in 2010. But he backstabbed them to please Anglo 5 evil eyes .
Year 2009
DOES RUSSIA NOT REALIZE THAT IF EVER Iran IS ATTACKED AND DEFEATED BY USA Then RUSSIA WILL LOSE ALL STATUS AND PRESTIGE OF EVEN THIRD RATE Powers IN THE WORLD AND THEN NO COUNTRY WILL BE Willing TO BE ON SIDE OF Russia because EVERYONE WANTS TO BE WITH A STRONG Country WHO CAN ORDER AND MANAGE THE AGENDA AS AMERICA IS TRYING TO DO AND THEN RUSSIA WILL BE =DESTROYED AS IS THE VERY Intentions OF USA?
RUSSIA MUST NOT LET USA Score ANY MORE POINT ANYWHERE LET ALONE IN Iran OTHERWISE RUSSIA IS FINISHED EVEN AS A COUNTRY .
If russia foolishly stop busher plant work or does not support iran versus the west then russia will be doomed as well because then resurgent west ,which has ben plotting against russia too,will have encircled and weakened russia and russia will have no friend to look to when it is under pressure from the west.
therefore russia must support all the countries including Yemen who have stood against angloamerican evil -only by this method russia and other countries can maintain their independence.
Posted by: Sam | Dec 5 2024 23:12 utc | 117
America teetered on the brink of entering World War II, Charles A. Lindbergh gave a fateful speech that did more damage to the America First movement for peace than all the propagandistic efforts of the pro-war groups he named in Des Moines that day. In his oration, the great aviator and American hero sought to define who and what had brought us to the point of no return:
“The three most important groups who have been pressing this country toward war are the British, the Jewish, and the Roosevelt administration.
“Behind these groups, but of lesser importance, are a number of capitalists, Anglophiles, and intellectuals who believe that the future of mankind depends upon the domination of the British empire. Add to these the Communistic groups who were opposed to intervention until a few weeks ago, and I believe I have named the major war agitators in this country.”
Posted by: Sam | Dec 5 2024 23:13 utc | 118
@John Marks | Dec 5 2024 22:29 utc | 107
>>Control of The Narrative™ is their most powerful weapon.
Yes, but. Everybody does it, though usually without the skill and reach of Zion. I see that on the Russian side, the Idlib takfiris are back to being “terrorists” again. If you knew this in 2016 and know it today, then why did you allow them to rearm in the interim? Seems that the “opposition” had a … rather specific “reconciliation process” in mind, if it required drones, armor, MLRS, EW emitters, the works. And now the SAA is bequeathing them jets and helos at Hama airport?! I think the headchoppers have been underestimated enough already; wouldn’t rule out that they can do something with those, with a little help from their friends.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 23:24 utc | 119
MSM is still claiming that Trump is just going to go all ‘George Bush Style’ forever war in Ukraine. This has to be the most schizophrenic take on Trump I’ve ever heard.
1) Trump ran on a platform of isolationism and cutting waste. He always has.
2) Trump questioned payments to Ukraine way back in 2016 and the Democrats nearly impeached him for it.
3) Trump said he would end the war on day one and he said it multiple times. (MSM will have you believe that he intends to prolong it forever and thats what he meant by those statements)
4) Trump never put forward a plan to sanction/blockade/harass/antagonize Russia. Not ever.
5) Putin said he congratulated Trump’s victory through “A mutual friend”. There are so many implications here.
6) The MSM is going to pitch the narrative that Trump plans to start a hot war with Russia. Much like they pitched when Trump visited North Korea.
From what I’ve seen so far, here is my prediction.
Day 1: Trump tells Ukraine “Hey, you are on your own. Make peace or die.”
And that will be the end of the war. Trump keeps his word.
Posted by: MaryPeck | Dec 6 2024 0:13 utc | 120
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 21:26 utc | 95
“Let’s keep in mind that the combat power preserved in Idlibstan since 2020 has been a nightmare not only for Syria itself, but also for Libya”
Uh, how is a fighting force or whatever, in Syria, be a threat to Libya?
Situated some 2000 kms away.
Posted by: membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:20 utc | 121
For all practical purposes we are in a World War, lets not kid ourselves……….
NATO/EU/CIA/MI6 attempting to stage of color revolution in Georgia
CIA/MI6 attempting a color revolution in Serbia
CIA/MI6/IDF/Avoz mercenaries/Turks staging an invasion of Syria, forcing RF and SA to fight to regain lost cities
US/NATO/EU continuing to attack the RF through their Ukronazi proxy forces, including attacks on Kursk itself…
US imposing sanctions on RF and Iran
Continued US and UK attacks on the Houthi forces in Yemen
Continued Houthi attacks on USN forces in the Red Sea, and on merchant ships in transit
IDF forces attacking Lebanon and Syria on a regular basis
US attacking Syrian and Iranian forces in Syria and Iran, and continuing illegal bases in both nations…..
IDF forces murdering hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians, and starving millions to the point of death…..
Iran and Israel exchanging missile attacks………..
IDF attempting to establish a foreign base in Somaliland……..
Central African countries expelling US and French forces and welcoming RF forces and advisors……
I dont think you need any more proof of World War in Europe and West Asia as we speak…………..
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 0:21 utc | 122
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 0:21 utc | 122
Funny 🙂 Of course the force for peace, russia, is not attacking anywhere. Like it never has. Never ever, no way. Not in a million years. Sometimes it just has to defend itself by annexing other peoples, nations, countries etc. And genocide them. But always to defend itself against bigger and more powerful enemies.
Posted by: membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:26 utc | 123
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 0:21 utc | 122
I sort of agree Tobias but until bombs fall on Europe it is still essentially a colonial war, not a world war.
Also to be really a world war, East Asia, South Asia and Oceania need to be involved.
Sure it is very, very close to WWIII but not quite there yet.
Posted by: watcher | Dec 6 2024 0:33 utc | 124
And genocide them.
Posted by: membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:26 utc | 123
never go full retard… oh who am i kidding, you are the full retard.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 6 2024 0:35 utc | 125
Daily DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Overall analysis: Poor day for territory capture. Only took 6.5 kmsq. Compare to average of 23/day in NOV.
S to N:
Uspenivka pocket:
1. 1.3 kmsq near Romanivka and Illinka, including capture of the latter town.
2. 1.5 kmsq in a salient reaching into Uspenivka. The pocket is getting closer and closer to being surrounded. It is now only 2.5 km between N and S salient pincers (1.6 km if you go by gray zone).
Kurakhove vicinity:
3. 0.1 kmsq in Kurakhove.
4. 0.7 kmsq in the reservoir.
5. 0.8 kmsq in Stari Terny, including finishing capture of that town. Half of the dam is in the gray zone (but was demolished by UFA). Will be interesting to see if they can ford the Vovcha River.
Greater Pokrovsk area:
6. 1.8 kmsq in Novodmytrivka, including town capture. Gray pocket conversion. Straightening the flank of the broad westward moving front.
7. 0.3 kmsq in Novopustynka, including town capture. This is the NW moving salient.
Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 6 2024 0:36 utc | 126
Posted by: membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:26 utc | 123
Listen Limp Dick, if you want to go back to Catherine the Great OK Russia was expansionist, but so too was UK, USA, Germany, Austria and France. The only non expansionists were the defeated eg Spain etc.
Since the end of WWII Russia has not been especially expansionist – at least not when compared to its main rival the USA. They split Germany. Russia controlled its border lands eg Baltics, West Ukraine and Poland with a looser control over the Balkans. The rest of their territory including most of Ukraine had been Russian since the time of Catherine the great or longer ie longer than the time the USA controlled California.
The USA controlled Japan, South Korea and tried hard to control North Korea and China and Vietnam and Laos and and and. Throw in pretty much all of South America and you get the picture. The USA is STILL an occupying power in South Korea FFS a US general is in charge of their armed forces we learned yesterday. WOW!!!!!!
So get some perspective rather than biased hate speech.
Posted by: watcher | Dec 6 2024 0:44 utc | 127
Posted by: watcher | Dec 6 2024 0:44 utc | 127
“Russia controlled its border lands eg Baltics, West Ukraine”
Probably just pedantic nitpicking, since of course they enjoyed it immensely, what with the free Siberian vacations and stuff, but russia actually ANNEXED those places, not just controlled.
But nice defense anyway. See, russsia might have attacked & enslaved nations etc, but the others did too. They were worse! Truly inspiring stuff 🙂
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:58 utc | 128
Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 6 2024 0:35 utc | 125
And genocide them.
Posted by: membrum Virile | Dec 6 2024 0:26 utc | 123
never go full retard… oh who am i kidding, you are the full retard.
IMO MV-(Custard Engorged Dildo if you like) is a full on Hasbara troll, A star graduate of the Joseph Goebbels Institute of Truth Creation, and probably the Tel Aviv campus, but could be NY.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Dec 6 2024 1:20 utc | 129
On account of there being no “long-range” missile strikes on “mainland” Russia.
From the record of the previous NATO long-range strikes (primarily on Crimea), these tend to have a rather long break in-between. Speculated reasons are: it takes a while to plan the strike and accumulate ammunition (which appears to be drip fed, due to all those non-existent logistics strikes RF definitely does not do). Therefore I would not be definitive about NATO being properly dissuaded from those yet. It simply hasn’t been that long.
On the other hand, of course, the strikes that happened were not large scale or particularly long-range, suggesting to be a minor test provocation to gauge response. Which they’ve got.
Speaking of Crimea, there hasn’t been a large strike on the peninsula in a while. That’s what I’d guess is going to happen next. On top of that, there’s more rumors of yet another AFU offensive brigade group being prepared in the rear. Since their suicidal operations go so well, why stop the good thing going, I suppose.
Posted by: boneless | Dec 6 2024 1:34 utc | 130
So Cadaver in Chief, another ceremonial sideshow event. Lighting the White House Christmas tree.
Almost without flub. But it was less than 60secs, so they are radically limiting the Gaffe Opportunity Gap.
But Ole Joe did let this slip: (obviously not an accident as he read it clean from the teleprompter.
[Jill disappointed she couldn’t be here]… she’s in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Sicily …… in order to promote women’s health
Oh. Really.
Hunter and his laptop of 27,000 dick pics (and a few dubious business emails) won him the lead as the Biden Family Bagman, but has anyone ever really paid attention to Dr Jill ?
It’s suited a lot of people to have Joe wander around in a fog …
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 6 2024 2:34 utc | 131
Posted by: Sam | Dec 5 2024 23:13 utc | 118
Are you suggesting that Charles Lindbergh (the Aviator – not his father the Congressman who was the chief opponent of central banking) effed up the WW2 peace movement by telling the truth? His father’s views were well known, he even published a book “Banking and Currency and the Money Trust”. The Aviator wasn’t saying anything his family hadn’t been saying very publically for decades.
Posted by: Drifter | Dec 6 2024 2:50 utc | 132
At the top, Germans have explained me that the Greens know exactly what they’re doing: they’ve cultivated ties to the German arms industry, because they know full well that they’re running a pro-war party whose policies should interest that constituency. It’s deeply corrupt.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 22:35 utc | 108
Well, Brzezinski in his Grand Chessboard already identified the German Greens as a crucial part for keeping Germany firmly connected to NATO so I guess there has been a lot of grooming over the years…
Posted by: Multipolar Panda | Dec 6 2024 2:54 utc | 133
Re: Posted by: rk | Dec 5 2024 12:50 utc | 22
I think your doctor has to adjust your medication. Do you hit your mommy when you feel anger?
Trumpy was the first provider of unlimited weapons. First Russians killed by US weapons and the only former president who publicly stated he would have bombed Moscow.
Completely wrong take.
Trump supplying Ukraine with Javelins is completely in line with his stated policy – related often – of PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH .
Posted by: Julian | Dec 6 2024 3:08 utc | 134
There are 10 kinds of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don’t…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:36 utc | 109
Do you mean 01 types of people?
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 5 2024 22:44 utc | 111
Literally 10, just hope western weapons engineers find 3 is close enough to pi for design and application.
P.S. (00 is zero decimal, 01 is one decimal, 10 yes you guessed two decimal and 11 would be 2+1=3)
P.P.S. in the old days,but not LOTR old, hex was more of a thing not to say 0D is unlucky but it carries ….
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 6 2024 3:23 utc | 135
Posted by: boneless | Dec 6 2024 1:34 utc | 130
Additional thoughts on ‘long range’ missile strikes.
There’s a limited supply of ATACMS and Storm Shadows (as well as the aircraft to launch them). Their ‘long range’ is limited by where they can be launched from in relative safety. ATACMS (Himars) launchers near the line of contact are getting routinely destroyed by Russia. A modified SU-24 or wonderjet F-16 will have to release a Storm Shadow somewhere around the Dnieper to avoid getting shot down. So, not so long range. In addition Russia has been neutralizing 80-90% of these weapons with AD/EW. Bottom line, there is very little effect these missiles can have militarily. And maybe not worth it considering the response they will get from Russia. Possibly even the most thick headed morons in Ukraine government have gotten that concept. My guess is they will go back to sending the missile they have left to Crimea where they can hit some fuel depots and maybe kill some civilians.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 6 2024 3:28 utc | 136
NATO has never been stronger thanks to Putin. He pushed historically neutral Finland and Sweden into NATO while Europe has ramped up its ammo productions. He’s rapidly destroying the huge legacy cache of weapons Russia inherited from the soviets. All while the value of the ruble crumbles and interest rates soar.
We in the west must thank Putin though, no other leader has done more to help the west. I’m thankful Russians don’t stand up to him or demand better because all his actions have only helped the west. I own land with natural gas that now gets turned into LNG and is bought at top dollar by Europe. Thanks Putin and Russians.
Posted by: focusonevidence | Dec 6 2024 3:56 utc | 137
Posted by: focusonevidence | Dec 6 2024 3:56 utc | 137
Dear fuckUSnoevidence
Get Peted!
As a Christmas bonus pass by the zoo and choose a large animal to pleasure while the choir sings.
Merry Xmas and fuck off
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 6 2024 4:05 utc | 138
NATO has never been stronger thanks to Putin. He pushed historically neutral Finland and Sweden into NATO while Europe has ramped up its ammo productions. He’s rapidly destroying the huge legacy cache of weapons Russia inherited from the soviets. All while the value of the ruble crumbles and interest rates soar.
Posted by: focusonevidence | Dec 6 2024 3:56 utc | 137
LMAO, NATO’s stockpiles have disappeared, their weapons have been disgraced, and their manufacturing base has been eviscerated. They couldn’t put together an effective fighting force among them… never mind that their economies are disintegrating. Adding Finland & Sweden changes nothing.
That “huge legacy cache” has been handily destroying the best NATO hardware allowing Russia plenty of time to design, build & arm units with their latest and greatest, none of which NATO can ever counter since (again) they have no significant arms industry.
Oh, and only rubes think the Ruble exchange rate means anything, and the interest rates soaring is a sign of an economy so healthy it’s running hot. The EU would kill for an economy half as good as Russia’s.
Geez, get a clue.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 6 2024 4:09 utc | 139
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 6 2024 4:09 utc | 139
————-
Dude, it’s clearly a troll or ignoramus.
Historically neutral Sweden & Finland, was outright false for a start.
Everything else is NATO/Ukro-nazi cope.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 6 2024 4:40 utc | 140
In general, I’m concerned about flag officers as you typically have to be political and a sycophant to get those positions. It’s not like they pick the smartest guys. You really want a smart individual contributor for a tricky role like this. Not a guy who’s navigated up the US military promotion system, but doesn’t really know the foreign world well.
Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 5 2024 17:42 utc | 50
The ones I’m most worried about are the nutty evangelical types who, since the Reagan era, have been helped up the ladder. See, for example:
Jesus killed Mohammed: The crusade for a Christian military – Jeff Sharlet, 2009.
Hegseth is probably the creepiest type, but if he was helped up, he didn’t get that far.
Posted by: Liolia Paluzas | Dec 6 2024 4:42 utc | 141
Russia has to be ready for the cheap shot of NATO or the U.S. from starting an action somewhere else in Russia, if the Great Ukrainian Gamble fails.
Slow strangulation of Ukraine is good strategy
Posted by: kupkee | Dec 5 2024 22:20 utc | 105
I know you meant it, but just to be explicit for those who can’t read between the lines:
That means keeping a huge amount of trained troops and materiel in reserve.
Posted by: Liolia Paluzas | Dec 6 2024 4:48 utc | 142
Completely wrong take.
Trump supplying Ukraine with Javelins is completely in line with his stated policy – related often – of PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH .
Posted by: Julian | Dec 6 2024 3:08 utc | 134
————
Oh come on, is *that* depth you have to plumb now.
Trump is a bloviating, fraudulent, shitfilled, fleshbag, whose first term was an utter shitshow concealed by crude theatrics.
The Donald’s own crooked, decrepitude, lies and failure. Was only mitigated by Biden being effectively dead & Kamala obviously less suitable to run a country than her WWE namesake.
He can no more end the SMO on US terms, than he could fix the US itself. Assuming his corrupt ignorant ass would even try.
The swamp creatures & opportunists he’s surrounded with, suggest nothing will change.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 6 2024 4:52 utc | 143
We in the west must thank Putin though, no other leader has done more to help the west. I’m thankful Russians don’t stand up to him or demand better because all his actions have only helped the west. I own land with natural gas that now gets turned into LNG and is bought at top dollar by Europe. Thanks Putin and Russians.
Posted by: focusonevidence | Dec 6 2024 3:56 utc | 137
Too obvious a troll. Come on, buddy. NATO, the west? Look at the scoreboard before you play agent provocateur.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 6 2024 4:59 utc | 144
Nuclear Conflict Risk, Ukraine & Syria Escalation
https://www.rt.com/608798-russia-lavrov-interview-carlson/
“Read FM Lavrov’s interview with Tucker Carlson.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 6 2024 5:11 utc | 145
Read Carlson Interview with Lavrov
https://www.rt.com/news/608798-russia-lavrov-interview-carlson
“Nuclear conflict risk, Ukraine & Syria escalation, FULL version.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 6 2024 5:16 utc | 146
Literally 10, just hope western weapons engineers find 3 is close enough to pi for design and application.
P.S. (00 is zero decimal, 01 is one decimal, 10 yes you guessed two decimal and 11 would be 2+1=3)
P.P.S. in the old days,but not LOTR old, hex was more of a thing not to say 0D is unlucky but it carries ….
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 6 2024 3:23 utc | 135
You are of course both right. Too long ago. Vague memories of Z80 machine code, rotating right or left to double or half the value of the byte. Then what to do with the bit that drops off the end?! I’m sure it ends up in the bucket.
The forever correction that FFFF was 65535, not 65536.
That’s when computers were our servants as opposed to them more or less controlling us as they seem to now. Simpler times in a lot of ways.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 6 2024 5:26 utc | 147
Palmasailor/Newbie:
Sadly I predate both of you guys.
Vacuum tubes and transistors!
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Dec 6 2024 5:39 utc | 148
I do not understand why Russia still talks to US army.
Posted by: salmon | Dec 5 2024 13:33 utc | 28
That’s because you have a tiny brain.
Posted by: Screwdriver | Dec 6 2024 5:42 utc | 149
How long will Ukrainian war last?
With central bank financing, a minimum of 5 years.
So late 2026 at the earliest,but more likely 2027.
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Dec 6 2024 5:46 utc | 150
Hard lessons for the Kremlin … R2P bs of the US and Samantha Power (USAID) in Kosovo and Libya (Medvedev) … leaving Syria half way not finishing off the terror enclave … Ukraine no second life for neo-Nazi terror … am afraid the UA will be a terror state for decades to come … the end of the EU.
Check out the social hierarchy (caste system) of any culture, past or present, western or eastern.
You’ll notice the priestly class is always número #1, with military (warriors) following in the second slot.
Many confuse priests with religion. While it’s an important part of the control function, it still only serves a subsidiary role to the real key, which is defining, rationalizing and enforcing the very nature or “essence” of the state itself.
Markw | Dec 5 2024 23:06 utc | 115
Yes, it includes infotainment, “news and comment”, and the rest – films, music, literature and so on.
Academia is the servant of the state – goes back to religion itself being a product of civilisation – empire and state.
What is called “religion” in pre-civilisation groups was just entertainment – see the “The Forest People” by Colin M. Turnbull
https://archive.org/details/forestpeople00turn
People just having FUN – like amateur theatre – everyone knows it’s just make believe and enjoy it.
Posted by: hh | Dec 6 2024 6:19 utc | 152
leaving Syria half way not finishing off the terror enclave …
Oui | Dec 6 2024 5:57 utc | 151
linear thinking…
btw – I think we should remind ourselves, because of its relevance to everything in West Asia and the Black Sea, that Cyprus is not divided into two, but into three parts; everyone forgets, it seems, that part of Cyprus is sovereign territory of the Windsor Crown – just like Gibraltar:
British Forces Cyprus – Wikipedia
Akrotiri and Dhekelia – Wikipedia
Dhekelia Cantonment – Wikipedia
Episkopi Cantonment – Wikipedia
I’d be interested to know from the military experts here to know whether that is playing a role in Ukraine.
I heard that that the Cyprus bases were where the Syrian “rebels” got their training..(gossip at the time on the now defunct Guardian ‘Talk’ website.)
Posted by: hh | Dec 6 2024 6:34 utc | 153
Both of these speakers touch upon a number of theaters including Korea and Syria as well as Ukraine but will put them here:
Judge Nap: Col Lawrence Wilkerson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REywSUOHVIY
“Trump and forever wars.”
Judge Nap: Prof John Mearsheimer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LabT9Zg2Axg
“Our dangerous geopolitical landscape.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 6 2024 6:34 utc | 154
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Dec 6 2024 5:39 utc | 148
With central bank financing, a minimum of 5 years.
So late 2026 at the earliest,but more likely 2027.
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Dec 6 2024 5:46 utc | 150
We need an old farts reminiscing thread really. I remember taking apart the television and washing the vacuum tubes down with petrol and putting it back together if that helps.
How did you conclude your timescales via central bank financing. I take it you’re referring to EU central banks, not US, and that’s relative to their capacity to print / versus the cash burn of what’s left on the public sector in 404?
Or some other calc? Please enlighten!
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 6 2024 7:16 utc | 155
How the tables have turned, it sounds like he hasn’t bought off his son from getting mobilized yet.
https://t.me/dva_majors/59477
Chronicles of Pig Farm
Poroshenko accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces command of organizing “meat assaults” and called for abandoning the offensive and starting “rescuing” Ukrainian soldiers.
“We must stop using the people of Ukraine as a tool for operations with “meat assaults,”” he said, answering the question of how to deal with Russia’s advantage in manpower on the battlefield.
He criticized the sending of Ukrainian soldiers to assault positions captured by the Russian Armed Forces, “because someone is afraid to report to the top that we are losing this forest.”
Poroshenko believes that Ukraine should go on the defensive and “do the same thing that Russia did in the spring of 2023,” speaking about building fortifications.
“Stop giving orders for an offensive operation now. We can do it, but the price will be colossal. And it will give a negative result in the future,” he said, implying high losses of personnel.
“We just need to stop working on TV and start working to save soldiers,” Poroshenko said.
It’s amazing that just a few years later Poroshenko and Zelensky swapped positions and now the chocolate oligarch is calling for saving soldiers. In fact, it’s ordinary populism.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Dec 6 2024 7:22 utc | 156
Oh, and only rubes think the Ruble exchange rate means anything, and the interest rates soaring is a sign of an economy so healthy it’s running hot. The EU would kill for an economy half as good as Russia’s.
Geez, get a clue.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 6 2024 4:09 utc | 139:
.
.
.
Top post
Take the wind out of the sails of the eternal ruble riders.
And…the Soviets’ “old weapons” not only destroyed NATO’s “MODERNNESS”, it is far from being used up. You have NO idea of the amount of weapons and ammunition that the USSR had in bunkers, so much so that underground bunkers with an area of up to 45,000 m2 were not enough and the stuff was lying around above ground.
In Transnistria alone there is so much ammunition that the Ukrainian army could have been supplied with it for about 3 years, there is the largest ammunition depot on European soil, with up to 12 floors. Emphasis on European soil, I saw a few more behind the Urals with my own eyes.
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 7:34 utc | 157
@hh Syrian “rebels”
Trained jihadists from global hot spots … Khorasan, AfPak region, Chechnya, Tunisia … funded and transported from Libya into Syria through Turkey, CIA with Gulf States UAE-KSA-Qatar … imported Sunni/Shia divide … major surge Islamic State of the Levant from Anbar region in Iraq … new recruits trained by U.K.-US in Jordan at the border w Syria and Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo … the Brzezinski doctrine … Madeleine Albright
Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 5 2024 21:41 utc | 99
Interesting comments. If Americans don’t read papers in French (or Russian), just imagine all that is missed which is written in Chinese. My sources tell me that over 90% of Chinese journals publish in Chinese.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/leap.1326
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 6 2024 8:22 utc | 159
Trained jihadists from global hot spots
Oui | Dec 6 2024 7:51 utc | 158
Yes, but then, at the beginning, the “rebels” were supposedly nice middle class citizens acting under their own steam and initiative….
The same in Libya, if you remember, except for the accidental publishing of a photo (quickly removed) of an SAS officer, in khakis, speaking to the “nice middle class citizens acting under their own steam and initiative”
Yes, it was Carter and Brzezinski who started it all the terrorism – in order to provoke a russian intervention in Afghanistan.
Thus Ukraine isn’t a war, just a battle in a bigger war.
Posted by: hh | Dec 6 2024 8:35 utc | 160
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 22:36 utc | 109
Haha! >:-P
Posted by: Tim | Dec 6 2024 8:40 utc | 161
just imagine all that is missed which is written in Chinese.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 6 2024 8:22 utc | 159
—
I have long thought about a programming language coded in 汉 and wondered about the advantages its grammar may confer over the Western language of predicate logic.
Posted by: too scents | Dec 6 2024 8:46 utc | 162
@John Marks | Dec 5 2024 22:29 utc | 107
>>Control of The Narrative™ is their most powerful weapon.
<==Maybe, but without the law of treason to enforce patriotism, the secrecy of state to block critism, and the pledge of military to defend the politicians, narrative would be unimportant.
Obligating everyone, every family, every institution, everything that walks, talks or quacks, to defend the state over the rights, needs and wants of mankind that the state governs, has been the great advantage the nation state system has given to the global class I mafia.
the structure of nearly every state is the same.
_.0006% Class 1. Oligarch: wealthy 6% seeking more wealth. King of ___________________mountain, Deep State?
_2.94% Class 2.
POPFME: privately owned, publically [stock mkt] financed multi-national ___________________entity.
_2.94% Class 3. Government: includes anything government local to global.
94.12% Class 4. Slaves: governed people blinded by the obligations of __________________patriotism.
assume 100% of the population fits into one of the four classes of people..
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 0:21 utc | 122 evidence that the people in control of the nation state system have forced the governments of member nations of the nation state system to take sides (E vs W) and to engage the sides in a World War.........
NATO/EU/CIA/MI6 attempting to stage of color revolution in Georgia
CIA/MI6 attempting a color revolution in Serbia
CIA/MI6/IDF/Avoz mercenaries/Turks staging an invasion of Syria, forcing RF and SA to fight to regain lost cities
US/NATO/EU continuing to attack the RF through their Ukronazi proxy forces, including attacks on Kursk itself...
US imposing sanctions on RF and Iran
Continued US and UK attacks on the Houthi forces in Yemen
Continued Houthi attacks on USN forces in the Red Sea, and on merchant ships in transit
IDF forces attacking Lebanon and Syria on a regular basis
US attacking Syrian and Iranian forces in Syria and Iran, and continuing illegal bases in both nations.....
IDF forces murdering hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians, and starving millions to the point of death.....
Iran and Israel exchanging missile attacks...........
IDF attempting to establish a foreign base in Somaliland........
Central African countries expelling US and French forces and welcoming RF forces and advisors......
I dont think you need any more proof of World War in Europe and West Asia as we speak..............
<=the interesting thing is the people in the world are not at war.. its just 6% of the global population (classes 1, 2, and 3) that are driving these wars. Seems to me the governed masses are waking up everywhere and have started voting against the persons who man the governments that have for so long protected the Class 1 people. This patriotism thing ain't too healthy for the average bloke but it is a characteristic of the nation state system that is essential to Class 1 mafia folks.
Posted by: snake | Dec 6 2024 8:51 utc | 163
this is bullshit, where’s the south korea thread
j/k
Posted by: paquo | Dec 5 2024 12:31 utc | 21
Reportedly, invisible North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine have taken the South Korea thread prisoner… thus rendering the South Korea thread also invisible.
Cloaking devices activated.
j/k
Posted by: retroflecks | Dec 6 2024 9:01 utc | 164
Johan Kaspar | Dec 6 2024 8:22 utc | 159
My sources tell me that over 90% of Chinese journals publish in Chinese, but they merely publish cut-n-paste of the superior English language journals.
> Sarc for Ed. And any other retards here who need it.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 6 2024 9:25 utc | 165
“But tell me one other thing: why do ordinary Germans allow him to become chancellor?”
Posted by: grunzt
The Germans are very, very stupid people. They believe everything the MSM tell them. The MSM say, the AfD party (anti war) are Nazis, so they don’t vote AfD. The MSM say Sahra Wagenknecht (anti war), leader of the BSW party, is a Communist Putin agent, so they don’t vote for BSW. Right now, Germany’s economy is fucked up, and the entire country is flooded with Muslim criminals. All this is Merkel’s fault. She opened the borders, she decided that all nuclear power plants and coal fired power plants (some of them just a couple of years in use) are shut down, so the energy prices sky rocketed. But the stupid Germans forgot all this and are voting again for Merkel’s party, CDU.
P.S.: I’m German, btw.
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 9:31 utc | 166
Attack on Crimean bridge by sea drones was repelled during the night and the morning
https://t.me/dva_majors/59490
Black Sea, on the Crimean coast. @tactical_13 reports
All night long, the Black Sea Fleet Marine Aviation and the Black Sea Fleet Tigers, together with the Tigers, chased enemy BEKs across the Black Sea waters, from Sevastopol to the Crimean Bridge, in superboats.
I’ll clarify the numbers later, but judging by the volume of work overnight and in the morning, all participants in the operation are counting on bonuses.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Dec 6 2024 9:32 utc | 167
“Green Party and Baerbock? Madam won’t return, it’s Habeck now … will the Greens reach 5%? I don’t think so …”
Posted by: Oui
Of course the Greens will reach 5%. I guess they will get about 15% of the votes. Don’t you know, the Greens are the only ones who will save the planet from global warming. Many people are crapping their pants because they are afraid of global warming, most of them stupid women.
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 9:37 utc | 168
Posted by: watcher | Dec 5 2024 21:55 utc | 101
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 0:21 utc | 122
Posted by: watcher | Dec 6 2024 0:33 utc | 124
Made my day. Best war report I’ve read for a very long time.
IMO WWIII has started. I think someone else in here posted this link a while ago but it’s so interesting I dare repeat it:
https://indi.ca/if-you-count-colored-people-world-war-iii-has-begun/
Posted by: Avtonom | Dec 6 2024 9:57 utc | 169
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 9:31 utc | 166
The nuke plants were ancient and unlikely to still be in service anymore as they were supposed to be decommissioned within a handful of years anyway. So blame Schrouder for stopping the replacement plans.
Were the coal fired plants actually shut down or did they convert them to natural gas? Because shutting them down does not make sense if they were new as converting them to gas fired is cheap. Hell they could even go with CoGen if you want to pay the cost upfront for long term cost savings and shutting the greens up.
Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 6 2024 10:00 utc | 170
Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 6 2024 10:00 utc | 170
.
.
.
Seldom have I read such rubbish!
Are you German and live in Germany…certainly not.
Old nuclear power plants are such rubbish, German nuclear power plants are still the safest in the world!
And why should investors plan new ones, get out of nuclear power (Merkel) and into nuclear power (again Merkel) OUT of nuclear power (again Merkel) and the latter only to please these Greens because the end of the CDU as chancellor party was already foreseeable.
CSU boss Söder even hugged trees in Bavaria, today he is talking about NEVER AGAIN the Greens. But his boss Merz, candidate for chancellor TODAY on TV “Greens wanted as coalition partner, yes why? Correct, if the CSU gets around 30% in 2025, which is not enough, only the AfD and the Greens are available as partners for power! It must not be the AfD…only the Greens remain, so that Germany is at war with Russia. Merz as representative of Blackrock has then fulfilled his task.
END
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 10:12 utc | 171
“Were the coal fired plants actually shut down or did they convert them to natural gas? Because shutting them down does not make sense if they were new as converting them to gas fired is cheap.”
They have blown them up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8HtzdwIhgo
Gas is as bad as coal (except when it’s expensive fracking gas from the US of course).
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 10:17 utc | 172
the remaining nuke plants we had online here in Germany in 2023 before their shutdown were all over 40 years old (Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, Emsland), and we still do not have a solution to the nuke waste problem. I have always been against nuclear power, and the shutting down of the remaining plants was one decision I fully supported.
Posted by: jure | Dec 6 2024 10:22 utc | 173
I am copying my reply to Juliana from the Open thread, because it relates directly to the analysis of the recent Oreshnik strike at the Dnipropetrovsk Yuzhmash factory
@juliania | Dec 6 2024 5:59 utc | 155
A recent Dialogue Works puzzled me in that respect, as the guest (Dr. Posol?) had changed his description of what the new missile’s path and effect had been. I haven’t seen any further discussion, so that had puzzled me.
I watched the Dialogue Works interview Nima had with Dr. Postol. I must say it raises serious questions regarding Dr. Postols credibility. His description of the orbital characteristics (ballistic) and organization of munitions I don’t have any arguments against, but the conclusions regarding target effects are highly dubious.
Photographic ground level imagery that no-one else has was shown without explaining how they were obtained. Obviously the only possible source would be the Ukrainians since the site is completely sealed off, but this was not stated. It is not obvious that the images showed effects from the Oreshnik strike.
The main impression that you are left with after watching Postol’s presentation is that the Oreshnik isn’t remotely capable of causing the damage that Putin has described (disentegrating the target into dust multiple levels of underground bunkers). He even claimed that Putin had been disinformed by his own people about the capabilities of the Oreshnik.
My conclusion is that Postol was engaged in disinformation using information provided from the Ukrainians, playing down the importance of Oreshnik. A professional like him would surely know not to behave that way.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 9:56 utc | 169
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 10:22 utc | 174
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 10:22 utc | 174
No surprise, this propaganda. Next time, I bet the Russians will put some explosives in it and then we’ll see if the US have used up all their arguments about its weakness or maybe they find something new to say.
Posted by: Avtonom | Dec 6 2024 10:28 utc | 175
On the latest increase in activity of enemy satellites in Crimea
Western satellites have been noticeably active in Crimea for several days in a row. According to our data, they were tracking airfields, ports, oil depots and air defense positions that were handed over to Ukrainian forces.
Yesterday, unmanned threats and EITI were introduced in Crimea, that is, unmanned boats were recorded off the coast of Crimea. If you recall, today is the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – a significant holiday for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Therefore, they may try to time some attack or sabotage to this day, since there have been no serious attacks on the peninsula for a long time, and missiles were supplied to Ukrainian forces.
At the end of November, we noted that the recent secret delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles had most likely not yet been used, so they could easily be used against us. Moreover, it is now important for the Ukrainian authorities to raise the morale of their units against the backdrop of not very pleasant news from the front, so they need to be prepared for anything.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Dec 6 2024 10:32 utc | 176
the remaining nuke plants we had online here in Germany in 2023 before their shutdown were all over 40 years old (Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, Emsland), and we still do not have a solution to the nuke waste problem. I have always been against nuclear power, and the shutting down of the remaining plants was one decision I fully supported.
Posted by: jure | Dec 6 2024 10:22 utc | 173
.
.
.
So, over 40 years old…
How old are those in Ukraine who, according to Habeck (German Minister of Economics, a Green), would be happy to supply Europe with energy, which is in short supply in the EU.
That’s right, these nuclear power plants built by the USSR during Soviet times are over 50 years old and have not been maintained as well as in Germany, every single one (and I was in EVERY one of them) is a time bomb, partly converted to Canadian fuel rods, and because they caused problems (they warped) we went back to Russian fuel rods. We maintained the turbines there, and as far as I know, our company maintained a Canadian one.
Ukraine itself is not even in a position to carry out basic maintenance, the plans are in Moscow, Moscow built these nuclear power plants and PAID for them after Ukraine seceded, the bill was never settled, which is also a reason why we no longer took on maintenance.
After their shutdown, German nuclear power plants were dismantled as quickly as possible under pressure from the Greens, cooling water pipes were flushed with acid and dismantled.
SO THAT NO ONE can revive these nuclear power plants after the Greens are deposed.
.
You in Europe should worry about Ukrainian nuclear power plants
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 10:39 utc | 177
@Avtonom | Dec 6 2024 10:28 utc | 175
No surprise, this propaganda.
In a way it is no surprise. But I wonder why a guy like Dr. Postol would be willing to discredit himself in this way. Even most of the YouTube comments say they don’t accept his assessments. Maybe he was ‘encouraged’. In any case, from this point on I will not take anything he says at face value unless it is supported by verifiable evidence.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 10:40 utc | 178
Addendum on nuclear power plants
The French nuclear power plants are in an even worse condition, and right on Germany’s borders…these nuclear power plants would not need sabotage from the East to become a danger…
But:
Without uranium from Africa, they will soon be cold anyway, and so will Germany…Germany, which has been counting on France as a supplier…at least the Greens, who have nothing against nuclear power from France, are not against nuclear power from Ukraine either…
Tip Putin should flatten the lines from the EU…a good job for partisans or Kinzals.
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 10:45 utc | 179
@ossi
Oh yes, I definitely worry about Ukrainian nuke plants as well, and was also very relieved when Fessenheim in France was shut down.
Posted by: jure | Dec 6 2024 10:50 utc | 180
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 10:17 utc | 172
Here I thought that the joke about German men getting off by having a woman take a shit in their mouth was just hyperbole.
That video proves otherwise.
Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 6 2024 10:59 utc | 181
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 6 2024 9:25 utc | 165
The phrase that this commenter put on his reply as written by me is fabricated. Kind of a new low in these comment sections.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 6 2024 11:07 utc | 182
My conclusion is that Postol was engaged in disinformation using information provided from the Ukrainians, playing down the importance of Oreshnik. A professional like him would surely know not to behave that way.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 10:22 utc | 174
I would like to add an angle, about why Postol’s arguments does not make sense to me; an angle I haven’t seen on MoA (and although I have read many of the comments, admittedly not all of them)
The Russians have used the missile strike as a warning and it is an integral part of their diplomatic effort (see for example Lavrov on his interview with Carlson).
It doesn’t make sense for the Russians to use an ineffective weapon against their enemy, and try to convince the enemy that the weapon is potent. The enemy can pretty well assess the weapon’s effectiveness. You cannot bluff AND show your cards at the same time.
Postol’s argument could make sense if the Russians had presented the results of a test on their territory. In that case they could try to bluff the enemy.
Knowing that the Russians have shown their cards AND attach great importance on their cards, then the Russian must sincerely believe in the cards they have.
The only way out for Postol is to claim that, simultaneously, Putin does believe in the weapon’s effectiveness, and that the weapon in not effective, thus the deception played against Putin.
For that claim to be true though, certain conditions have to be met, which I don’t find realistic (actually, not even remotely possible):
1) The deception against Putin would have to be of a massive scale. We are talking about collusion of the entire chain of command of the armed forces, without a single person caving in and sharing the secret. Not a single “doomer” nor a “hardliner” nor a “patriot”, nor a “Prigozin”, nor a “bureaucratic opponent”, or whatever.
2) That the Ukrainians/USUKEU do know that the weapon is a nothing-burger and instead of making a showcase of it with all the media coverage they can get, they simply throw a claim here and there along with some grainy images.
I in calculus, this is simply impossible.
Unless, someone knows better?
Posted by: RandomLurker | Dec 6 2024 11:08 utc | 183
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 9:31 utc | 166
The MSM say, the AfD party (anti war) are Nazis, so they don’t vote AfD. The MSM say Sahra Wagenknecht (anti war), leader of the BSW party, is a Communist Putin agent, so they don’t vote for BSW.
Okay but it looks like anything between one fifth to one third of German voters support either AfD or BSW.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 6 2024 11:15 utc | 184
@RandomLurker | Dec 6 2024 11:08 utc | 183
The Russians know what Oreshnik is capable of.
The US knows what Oreshnik is capable of, they have checked it.
The US knows that the Russians know what they know.
The theater played by Postol is directed at the western public, who does not know because the facts are hidden by the US controlled Ukraine. The motive is to play down the Oreshnik so that the Biden admin can continue escalating until the Trump admin takes over. They literally have no reverse gear.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 11:27 utc | 185
“Okay but it looks like anything between one fifth to one third of German voters support either AfD or BSW.”
Yes. Most of these voters live in East Germany, (former German Democratic Republic). They don’t fall for propaganda so easily like the Germans who grew up in West Germany.
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 11:37 utc | 186
Russian snipers trolling Trump. Hilarious.
https://youtu.be/7v0drpUJx18?si=KW_iIfS5EGSlcJ12
Posted by: David G Horsman | Dec 6 2024 11:41 utc | 187
Ukraine Weekly Update, 6th December 2004: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-ba5
Posted by: The Busker | Dec 6 2024 11:45 utc | 188
james | Dec 5 2024 20:58 utc | 88
Your scepticism regarding the polls may be inspired by the landslide Trump victory which they completely failed to predict. However, it is hard to imagine how the current German polls could still change – it is quite a distance – in order to prevent Merz from becoming chancellor…
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 5 2024 21:07 utc | 91
Thank you for your solidarity – indeed the population of both our countries is kept in the dark about most crucial issues – the difference is that, at the top level, the Germans never learnt to stand up for their interests. Just look at Nordstream…
Passerby | Dec 5 2024 21:17 utc | 94
Thanks for your input, that poll from Welt is revealing indeed
Oui | Dec 5 2024 21:36 utc | 96
I don’t expect the Greens to lose much of their current 13% until February. The FDP, in turn, currently polls at 4%, for them it will be a struggle indeed
Oliver Krug | Dec 5 2024 21:40 utc | 98
Indeed, the German Greens are possessed by a flavour of incurable hubris that resists all arguments – like in a religious sect, you nailed it
Ma Laoshi | Dec 5 2024 22:04 utc | 102
You’re perfectly right, the war hasn’t hit home yet. Just like Passerby’s poll is revealing. The German media keeps us in a comfortable state of ignorance. While people with access to full information are usually alarmed: like Jeffrey Sachs, Doug McGregor, Peter Lavelle, Sahra Wagenknecht…
Posted by: grunzt | Dec 6 2024 11:59 utc | 189
Another possible disaster could be Belarus. Luka is a very old man and I hope Russia has carefully thought matters through in regard to what would happen after he’s gone.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 6 2024 12:47 utc | 190
Well Lukashenko is 70 years old
Putin is 72 years old
.
So you can safely assume that both have trained their successors and know how they come into office.
What happened in Belarus is vital for Russia as its immediate neighbor…
For us, the rest of the world, it is vital that Putin’s successor is just as level-headed as HE is…and NOT a hardliner like Trump who likes to put himself in the spotlight and play the strong man (which he hasn’t been for a long time, in the USA).
Woe betide a hardliner who replaces Putin…
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 13:21 utc | 191
Report from the USA
Steve Banon and Jack Posobietz, now bloggers who support Trump in the media, condemned the Kiev regime. They said that the Biden team is seeking to lower the mobilization age, while the children of the elite will not go to the front. Journalists condemned Klitschko and former Foreign Minister Kuleba:
“If this is such a fateful war, then why is the elite of Ukraine going abroad, knowing that this war is leading to nothing,” said
Posobiets Among the main revelations was the news that Trump is already receiving intelligence reports and that the data on Ukraine’s losses in them differ catastrophically from those reported by the media in the United States. During the broadcast, Posobiets said that there is evidence that Ukraine’s losses have exceeded one million people
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 13:27 utc | 192
141:
I would prefer DeSantis over Hegseth. DOD is such a huge area. You need someone who is bright and hard working and knows how to manage as an executive. More of a Rumsfeld type. (He wanted to reform DOD, but was derailed by 9-11.)
Hegseth is not a flag officer (good). But he is still such a Trump pick. Someone who talks on Fox News and looks good. Like picking Sidney Powell (who likes doing “you go, girl” speeches to the base) for the 2020 election challenges, versus a very shrewd sharp shyster.
————–
But, in any case, the challenges of being SECDEF are very different from being the special envoy to Ukraine. For instance, for the latter, you need to interact with both sides (listen to them, gain their respect even if not agreement, etc.) And not just “be an American”. I would really prefer a diplomat over a military leader for that envoy role.
Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 6 2024 14:39 utc | 193
Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 10:17 utc | 172
“Gas is as bad as coal”
No, methane (CH4) is better than coal (C) from an energy per gram of CO2 created perspective.
“When generating electricity, coal emits significantly more CO2 than natural gas. In 2019, coal-fired generation produced 2,257 pounds of CO2 per megawatthour (MWh) of electricity. Natural gas-fired generation produced less than half that amount at 976 pounds of CO2/MWh.”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48296
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 6 2024 14:41 utc | 194
ossi @177 & 179
I’ve made exactly the same point here before and would say no one understands it in the slightest. Total insanity as using Westinghouse fuel rods in Soviet reactors is what you get when technical matters are considered only as political footballs. Those stupid enough to play these games should be locked in padded cells instead of being elected to high office. The somewhat educated and informed commentariat on this page is only very slightly better than run of the mill politicians.
Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 6 2024 14:41 utc | 195
MaryPeck | Dec 6 2024 0:13 utc | 120
*** Putin said he congratulated Trump’s victory through “A mutual friend”. There are so many implications here. ***
Is one of them called Netanyahu?
Posted by: Cynic | Dec 6 2024 15:14 utc | 196
@YetAnotherAnon #194
The climate sectarians say gas is as bad as coal.
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 6 2024 15:24 utc | 198
“Green voters always think there is little reason to worry.”
Green votership is dominated by public servants ( be they “Beamte” or “Angestellte” )
they show a trend
toward expecting income for “no productive activity”
go for pushing hobbyist views/interests into their work activity
and have secure high income, secure job, secure pensions.
( I recently got my hands on tender documents for a new smallish road ferry.
10 pieces of woke requirements, 1 item on the ferry. In the end 4m€ where spent on an electric photo solar ferry that is fully unsuitable for the task given
they had to buy back the old ferry to enable continued service)
Posted by: MAKK | Dec 6 2024 16:05 utc | 199
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 6 2024 7:16 utc | 155
‘vacuum tubes’!
“You were lucky – we had to use signal flags made from our own skin”
‘Signal flags’!
“You were lucky – we had to cut out our own entrails and divine the truth from them”
‘entrails’! “You were lucky . . .”
and etc.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Dec 6 2024 16:21 utc | 200