As further ATACMS strikes on Russia seem to have stopped this timeline is of interest.
November 18:
U.S. allows Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia:
The reversal of policy, nearly 1,000 days since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Ukraine, comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops to supplement its forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision told Reuters.
[Note: There is no evidence that any North Korean troops were deployed by Russia anywhere near Ukraine.]
November 19 and November 20/21:
Ukraine hits an ammunition depot in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, far from any relevant frontline, as well as military facilities in Russia's Kursk oblast:
On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
…
The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff.
November 21:
Russia fires a new missile with hypersonic kinetic warheads at a military industrial complex in Dnipro:
In response to the deployment of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defence industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik. The tests were successful, achieving the intended objective of the launch. In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments, was hit.
November 23 and 25:
Ukraine continues with ATACMS strikes against targets within Russia:
On 23 November, the enemy fired five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at a position of an S-400 anti-aircraft battalion near Lotarevka (37 kilometres north-west of Kursk).
During a surface-to-air battle, a Pantsir AAMG crew protecting the battalion destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two hit their intended targets.
As a result of the strike, a radar was damaged. There are casualties among personnel.
On 25 November, the Kiev regime delivered one more strike by eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (near Khalino). Seven missile were shot down by S-400 SAM and Pantsir AAMG systems, one missile hit the assigned target. Two servicemen were lightly wounded and infrastructure objects sustained minor damage by missile debris.
After investigating the attacked sites it was confirmed that the AFU delivered strikes by U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles.
November 27:
The Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov has a phone call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:
Gen. Valery Gerasimov initiated last Wednesday's call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to provide him with that warning and to also discuss Ukraine and how to avoid miscalculation between the U.S. and Russia about that ongoing conflict.
November 28:
Putin announces the response to the November 23/25 strikes:
Last night, we conducted a comprehensive strike utilising 90 missiles of these classes and 100 drones, successfully hitting 17 targets. These included military installations, defence industry sites, and their support infrastructure. I want to emphasise once again that these strikes were carried out in response to the continued attacks on Russian territory using American ATACMS missiles. As I have repeatedly stated, such actions will always elicit a response.
It seems that Russia's message has finally reached its recipient.
December 5/6:
In another strike on Russia Ukraine has used fix wing UAVs but no ATACMS:
Last night, the Russian Armed Forces have foiled another attempt by the Kiev regime to launch a terrorist attack using a fixed-wing UAV against the facilities in the Russian Federation.
Thirty three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted by alerted air defence systems over Kursk region. Fourteen UAVs were shot down over the territory of Voronezh region, eleven over Kursk region, seven over Belgorod region, and one over the Crimean Republic.
Moreover, the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed two uncrewed surface vehicles moving to the Crimean peninsula in waters of the Black Sea.
Since Gerasimov's phone call (and Putin's speech) there have been NO reports of any further ATACMS (or Storm Shadow) strikes on Russia!
During his announcement of the latest strikes Putin also described the effects of the hypersonic missile strike:
The system deploys dozens of homing warheads that strike the target at a velocity of Mach 10, equivalent to approximately three kilometres per second. The temperature of the impact elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius – nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees.
Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicentre is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust. The missile is capable of destroying even heavily fortified structures and those located at significant depths.
During several interviews in recent days MIT Prof. Ted Postol disagreed (vid) with Putin's claim. Postol describes the Oreshnik impacts as shallow surface explosions with the force of about 1.5 times the weight equivalent in TNT explosives. With an estimated warhead weight of 100 kilogram the impact of each of the Oreshnik's 36 warheads would be no bigger than a regular small bomb. This would make them mostly useless against anything but large area surface targets.
I am doubtful that Postol got this right:
- Putin is usually extraordinary well informed and not in the habit of making false claims. If he states that Oreshnik warheads have deep penetration capabilities then they are likely to have these.
- It would make little to no sense for the Russian's to demonstrate the Oreshnik on hardened targets, as the bunkers of the Yuzhmash machine plant are, if it does not have significant effects on these. It would be a bluff that could and would be immediately called by the Pentagon specialist inspecting the localities and observing the effects.
- The U.S. is taking the strike seriously. It has reacted by stopping support for further Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russia.
Weapon experts like Postol have little experience with hypersonic projectiles which impact at 10 times the speed of sound. I believe that his assessment is sincere. He also applies the necessary caveats. But I doubt that he, like most other experts, has sufficient experience with the effects of dart like hypersonic projectiles to further back up his claims.
I thus recommend, if only out of abundance of caution, to assume that the Russian claims of bunker busting capabilities of Oreshnik missiles are very real.
