U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia
As further ATACMS strikes on Russia seem to have stopped this timeline is of interest.
November 18:
U.S. allows Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia:
The reversal of policy, nearly 1,000 days since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Ukraine, comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops to supplement its forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision told Reuters.
[Note: There is no evidence that any North Korean troops were deployed by Russia anywhere near Ukraine.]
November 19 and November 20/21:
Ukraine hits an ammunition depot in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, far from any relevant frontline, as well as military facilities in Russia's Kursk oblast:
On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
...
The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff.
November 21:
Russia fires a new missile with hypersonic kinetic warheads at a military industrial complex in Dnipro:
In response to the deployment of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defence industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik. The tests were successful, achieving the intended objective of the launch. In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments, was hit.
November 23 and 25:
Ukraine continues with ATACMS strikes against targets within Russia:
On 23 November, the enemy fired five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at a position of an S-400 anti-aircraft battalion near Lotarevka (37 kilometres north-west of Kursk).During a surface-to-air battle, a Pantsir AAMG crew protecting the battalion destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two hit their intended targets.
As a result of the strike, a radar was damaged. There are casualties among personnel.
On 25 November, the Kiev regime delivered one more strike by eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (near Khalino). Seven missile were shot down by S-400 SAM and Pantsir AAMG systems, one missile hit the assigned target. Two servicemen were lightly wounded and infrastructure objects sustained minor damage by missile debris.
After investigating the attacked sites it was confirmed that the AFU delivered strikes by U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles.
November 27:
The Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov has a phone call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:
Gen. Valery Gerasimov initiated last Wednesday's call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to provide him with that warning and to also discuss Ukraine and how to avoid miscalculation between the U.S. and Russia about that ongoing conflict.
November 28:
Putin announces the response to the November 23/25 strikes:
Last night, we conducted a comprehensive strike utilising 90 missiles of these classes and 100 drones, successfully hitting 17 targets. These included military installations, defence industry sites, and their support infrastructure. I want to emphasise once again that these strikes were carried out in response to the continued attacks on Russian territory using American ATACMS missiles. As I have repeatedly stated, such actions will always elicit a response.
It seems that Russia's message has finally reached its recipient.
December 5/6:
In another strike on Russia Ukraine has used fix wing UAVs but no ATACMS:
Last night, the Russian Armed Forces have foiled another attempt by the Kiev regime to launch a terrorist attack using a fixed-wing UAV against the facilities in the Russian Federation.Thirty three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted by alerted air defence systems over Kursk region. Fourteen UAVs were shot down over the territory of Voronezh region, eleven over Kursk region, seven over Belgorod region, and one over the Crimean Republic.
Moreover, the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed two uncrewed surface vehicles moving to the Crimean peninsula in waters of the Black Sea.
Since Gerasimov's phone call (and Putin's speech) there have been NO reports of any further ATACMS (or Storm Shadow) strikes on Russia!
During his announcement of the latest strikes Putin also described the effects of the hypersonic missile strike:
The system deploys dozens of homing warheads that strike the target at a velocity of Mach 10, equivalent to approximately three kilometres per second. The temperature of the impact elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius – nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees.Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicentre is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust. The missile is capable of destroying even heavily fortified structures and those located at significant depths.
During several interviews in recent days MIT Prof. Ted Postol disagreed (vid) with Putin's claim. Postol describes the Oreshnik impacts as shallow surface explosions with the force of about 1.5 times the weight equivalent in TNT explosives. With an estimated warhead weight of 100 kilogram the impact of each of the Oreshnik's 36 warheads would be no bigger than a regular small bomb. This would make them mostly useless against anything but large area surface targets.
I am doubtful that Postol got this right:
- Putin is usually extraordinary well informed and not in the habit of making false claims. If he states that Oreshnik warheads have deep penetration capabilities then they are likely to have these.
- It would make little to no sense for the Russian's to demonstrate the Oreshnik on hardened targets, as the bunkers of the Yuzhmash machine plant are, if it does not have significant effects on these. It would be a bluff that could and would be immediately called by the Pentagon specialist inspecting the localities and observing the effects.
- The U.S. is taking the strike seriously. It has reacted by stopping support for further Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russia.
Weapon experts like Postol have little experience with hypersonic projectiles which impact at 10 times the speed of sound. I believe that his assessment is sincere. He also applies the necessary caveats. But I doubt that he, like most other experts, has sufficient experience with the effects of dart like hypersonic projectiles to further back up his claims.
I thus recommend, if only out of abundance of caution, to assume that the Russian claims of bunker busting capabilities of Oreshnik missiles are very real.
Posted by b on December 6, 2024 at 11:11 UTC | Permalink
next page »Posted by: leaf | Dec 6 2024 11:19 utc | 1
NASA has been testing high velocity impacts in a vacuum chamber for decades. At 3kms every material used would rapidly convert to a superheated gas and expand in all directions. IE it would detonate just like an explosive.
The mystery is what would happen when that gas undergoes rapid oxidation and nitration on account of air. Might undergo during the detonation or more likely as the gas begins to condense causing a thermobaric secondary explosion.
Posted by: Badjoke | Dec 6 2024 11:37 utc | 2
Spose the problem is that there are, thus far, no survivors from the blast to inform us otherwise ... or any forensic exploration of the blast site ....
... on the balance of probabilities, and earlier reports of 'special physical properties, one tends to believe the Russians. As probably do the US.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 6 2024 11:39 utc | 3
Mike Mihajlovic at Black Mountain Analysis offers another detailed analysis of the physics involved which also differs from Ted Postol's assesment.
Not to dimiss Professor Postol's expertise, IMO Mike's analysis seems to be the more compelling one in this case. So concur with B's caveats but surely other experts will weigh in as well. Scott Ritter among others has also weighed in on the impact of the Oreshnik and as an expert with direct experience in disarmament of Russia's mid mid range Ballistic Missiles in the late 1980's and 1990's shoudl have a good grasp on this as well I think.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/oreshnik-enters-the-chat-i
Posted by: Wlodek | Dec 6 2024 11:42 utc | 4
Postol was on the right side of the "assad gassed his own people!!" hoax, as well as the patriot missile hoax during gulf war 1. But that does not make him infallible.
As B said, this is out of his wheelhouse. These are weapons the west does not have, and thus there is not testing data for an academic to reference.
Posted by: Cresty | Dec 6 2024 11:44 utc | 5
Ukraine Weekly Update, 6th December 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-ba5
Posted by: The Busker | Dec 6 2024 11:46 utc | 6
I looked at this and want to distinguish between a few aspects.
Oreshnik demonstrates the ability to hit small targets accurately anywhere in Europe. The target has very little time to get out of the way and has no way to shoot down the missiles. The delivery system can carry a payload of the order of 3000kg and can deliver the kinetic energy on impact of similar weight in tnt. This kind of delivery is very expensive so can only be used on very high value targets and it does not scale.
I watched a discussion of Postol with Daniel Davis and in this specific case Postol said that the impact was shallow, only a few meters deep. The projectiles desintegrated on impact and delivered their energy very much like a 250 to 500kg bomb. So nothing spectacular. I was surprised it was not used as a bunker buster. Maybe Postol got that wrong from the limited data he got. Maybe he had background knowledge that at that speed physical strength on impact becomes irrelevant and it's all just like a liquid. I can't judge this right now.
But just as well this was just one type of payload. It is possible like with a bullet that they already have different designs of inert projectiles which burrow much deeper , which deliver their energy more in depth. For starters they don't have to split the thing up in six bullets.
Apart from that the importance of the Oreshnik is not that it has huge destructive conventional power. It has 'a bit' of that and that bit has been exaggerated. But it can deliver it anywhere, it can also deliver any small nuclear payload and when it launches, how are you going to know the difference. Even if you know the difference, how do you respond since there is no symmetrical response.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 11:49 utc | 7
Could Prof. Postol have based his analysis on faked, SBU images? Some of the destruction I saw in his second interview made no sense. Disclaimer: I was trained in analyzing natural destruction by a fellow who surveyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki – and tried to tell his government exactly what happened.
Posted by: johnf | Dec 6 2024 12:01 utc | 8
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (from November 30 to December 6, 2024)
From November 30 to December 6, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out six group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on energy facilities that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, the infrastructure of military airfields, places of assembly and storage of unmanned aerial vehicles, the center for electronic intelligence, as well as arsenals, ammunition depots, locations of formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, special operations forces, foreign instructors and mercenaries. All the goals of precision strikes have been achieved.
During the week, the units of the North group of forces continued to destroy the Armed Forces formations in the Kursk region. Air strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery fire hit the manpower and equipment of two tank, five mechanized, two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and four air defense brigades. In the Kharkiv direction, units of two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a defense brigade, a national Guard brigade and two border detachments of the border service of Ukraine were defeated.
During the week in the area of responsibility of the North group of forces, enemy losses amounted to 2,210 soldiers, nine tanks, including the Leopard tank manufactured by Germany, 42 armored combat vehicles, of which three Bradley infantry fighting vehicles manufactured by the United States, 52 vehicles and 16 field artillery guns.
Units of the Zapad group of forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated the manpower and equipment of the tank, seven mechanized, airborne, jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four defense brigades and two National Guard brigades. 64 counterattacks of the AFU assault groups were repelled.
The enemy lost more than 3,565 soldiers, a Leopard tank manufactured by Germany, nine armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured by the United States, 36 vehicles and 15 field artillery guns, of which seven 155 mm howitzers manufactured by NATO countries. Eight electronic warfare and counter-battery warfare stations were destroyed, as well as 17 field ammunition depots.
As a result of active actions, units of the Southern Group of Troops liberated the settlements of Ilyinka and Romanovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The formations of seven mechanized, motorized infantry, mountain assault, two airmobile, amphibious assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a marine brigade were defeated. We repelled six counterattacks by AFU units.
The enemy's losses amounted to over 2,400 military personnel, eight armored combat vehicles, 25 vehicles, six field artillery guns, four of them Western-made. Three electronic warfare stations and six field ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense, liberated the settlements of Petrovka and Pustynka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The manpower and equipment of the heavy mechanized, five mechanized, motorized infantry, infantry, jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two marine brigades, a special purpose brigade, five defense brigades and two National Guard brigades were defeated. We repelled 72 enemy counterattacks.
During the week, the losses of Ukrainian armed forces in this area amounted to over 3,600 military personnel, 31 armored combat vehicles, including a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, six M113 armored personnel carriers and an M1117 armored personnel carrier made in the United States, 16 armored vehicles, two of them Kirpi Turkish-made, American MaxxPro armored vehicle, Mastiff armored vehicle made in the United Kingdom, 12 armored combat vehicles "Cossack", 21 vehicles and 31 field artillery guns.
As a result of active actions, units of the Vostok group of troops liberated the settlements of Novodarovka in the Zaporozhye region and Sukhye Yaly in the Donetsk People's Republic. The formations of four mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and seven air defense brigades were defeated. 15 counterattacks of assault groups were repelled.
The enemy lost up to 950 troops, five tanks, including three Leopard made by Germany, 15 armored combat vehicles, four of them MaxxPro and four HMMWV made by the United States, 29 vehicles and 14 field artillery guns, including five 155 mm self-propelled artillery units.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized and infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and three air defense brigades.
The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 435 military personnel, 30 vehicles, four electronic warfare stations and six ammunition depots.
The air defense system shot down a long-range guided missile "Neptune", four rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system manufactured in the United States and 441 unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type.
The naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed eight unmanned boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
During the week, 61 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37354 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19685 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1497 multiple rocket launchers, 19085 field artillery and mortars, 29061 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: rumod report | Dec 6 2024 12:03 utc | 9
There has been a lot of confusion over the high temperatures. We should distinguish two kinds. One is the temperature of the projectile. There it is a consequence of the air slowing down the projectile and it means the projectile is losing a lot of impact energy. It is a bad thing and should be minimized and mitigated.
Then there is the temperature from adiabatic compression on impact. Sure, nothing can resist that. The temperature at the tip of a bunker buster will also be very high. But it is the amounts that matter and it is better to measure in terms of energy delivery and at about mach 3 the kinetic energy delivered is equivalent to its weight in tnt. At mach 24, that of an ICBM, it would be 8 times that.
It could be that if they say temperature on impact is 4000 degrees that it means the projectile turns to liquid at the moment of impact and it is unsuitable as a bunker buster.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 12:03 utc | 10
Postol is ignoring the temperature of the "bullet" and doesn't know the material it's made of. I guess it works like a shaped charge does to penetrate tank armor.
Posted by: Otto | Dec 6 2024 12:12 utc | 11
VV threw four aces on the table.....game over.......the game of guts won by the RF !!!!
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 6 2024 12:15 utc | 12
" At mach 24, that of an ICBM, it would be 8 times that."
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 12:03 utc | 10
Are you assuming that the kinetic energy is proportionnal to the velocity ?
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Dec 6 2024 12:27 utc | 13
I’ll try to keep it short and sweet.
Without nukes, I’d be tempted to say each of the 36 rounds was a kinetic energy penetrator, relying on fluid penetration (like current tank ammo)
May I remind you that they can pierce/melt through roughly half a meter of steel and become incendiary with air.
And they’re small, these ones are, each of the 36, over a magnitude heavier, and 2 or 3 times faster.
I’d suggest each of these rounds is 2 magnitudes above a tank killer round.
And that without weird effects that might exist.
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 6 2024 12:34 utc | 14
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 12:03 utc | 10
Mach 24 is not eight times more energy per kg of the weapon than Mach 3, it is 64 times more. E=(1/2)*M*V^2
Posted by: Biochar | Dec 6 2024 12:34 utc | 15
tuyzenflot:
But it is the amounts that matter and it is better to measure in oterms of energy delivery and at about mach 3 the kinetic energy delivered is equivalent to its weight in tnt. At mach 24, that of an ICBM, it would be 8 times that.
otto:
Postol is ignoring the temperature of the "bullet" and doesn't know the material it's made of. I guess it works like a shaped charge does to penetrate tank armor.
Utter nonsense!
biochar is being correct.
Mach 3k = 1000 m/s results in inetic energy of about 0.5 MJ per kilogram.
You're welcome
Posted by: Hmpf | Dec 6 2024 12:45 utc | 16
For comparison, a 28km-diameter crater from 38 million years ago in canada, estimated (from the presence of cubic zirconium) to have reached 2300 deg C
https://phys.org/news/2017-09-meteorite-impact-highest-temperature-earth.html
US's largest bunker buster said to reach depth of 62 meters
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP
Posted by: Father Dougal | Dec 6 2024 12:49 utc | 17
At mach 24, that of an ICBM
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 12:03 utc | 10
can you name an actual ICBM model that reaches mach ?!
Thanks.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Dec 6 2024 12:49 utc | 18
edit : can you name an actual ICBM model that reaches mach 24 ?!
Thanks.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Dec 6 2024 12:50 utc | 19
I am doubtful that Postol got this right:
Posted by b on December 6, 2024 at 11:11 UTC | Permalink
---
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks"
Be vigilant and be extremely critical of anything non-trivial that Postol says.
Talk is cheap. Results matter.
Posted by: too scents | Dec 6 2024 12:52 utc | 20
@13 Parisian Guy no that is only what others make of it.
At mach 24, an ICBM, the kinetic energy is 8 times that of the energy at mach 3, and I use mach 3 because that is breakeven speed where kinetic energy matches its weight in tnt. I also use ballpark numbers because breakeven speed would actually be below mach 3 and an actual bomb only consists in part of explosives. But it means that at that speed you don't need the explosives anymore ,except maybe for controlling the spread of energy, where exactly you want to depose it in your target.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 12:55 utc | 21
edit : can you name an actual ICBM model that reaches mach 24 ?!
Thanks.Posted by: Tak-Tik | Dec 6 2024 12:50 utc | 19
RS-24 Yars as well as the DF-41 -> Mach 25 according to Wikipedia
Posted by: jure | Dec 6 2024 12:57 utc | 22
The ATACMS attacks stopped bc American troops got big splatted in revenge:
Massed Russian missile and drone strikes across the Ukraine on November 28 also targeted and killed US personnel operating ATACMS launchers in the Sumy region. Since then no new ATACMS launch across the border has been reported by the Defense Ministry in Moscow or by Russian military bloggers.
Posted by: Anunnaki | Dec 6 2024 13:00 utc | 23
The physics question to address is whether the physical strength of the projectile still matters at that speed, because beyond a certain speed I think it will become irrelevant and a cylinder of liquid would model the impact quite well. That means you would have no control any more over penetration depth.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 13:06 utc | 24
Putin is usually extraordinary well informed and not in the habit of making false claims.
Putin in 2022 : "everything is going according to plan".
I thus recommend, if only out of abundance of caution, to assume that the Russian claims of bunker busting capabilities of Oreshnik missiles are very real.
The way I see it, Oreshnik is the equivalent of the HIMARS or F-16 for the Z-Anon camp : a new toy with supposedly magic capabilities which will somehow terrify NATO into submission (how exactly is not really explained).
If I sum up b's post, conclusion could be : yay, Ukraine is still hitting Russian territory and occupying a large swath of Russian territory. But, at least, they don't use ATACMS. I suppose that's a relief. Recall that ZAnon explained to us previously that ATACMS were uninmportant anyway, as they were easily countered by Russian AA.
So, final conclusion :
All that Oreshnik supposedly achieved was that Ukraine stopped using a weapon which was ineffective and had no impact anyway on the battlefield, according to Zanon, without achieving any other results (as in, Ukraine suing for peace or stopping attacks on Russian territory.
I wouldn't call that a particulary impressive result.
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:10 utc | 25
Aurelien has a very good atechnical analysis which avoids getting stuck in the weeds of speculation based just on what is known for sure.
tl;dr it's a Sputnik moment.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Dec 6 2024 13:10 utc | 26
Posted by: The Busker | Dec 6 2024 11:46 utc | 6
Gratefully received, as ever.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Dec 6 2024 13:11 utc | 27
US just shift the salami slicing to Syria which stands a better chance to kick out the Russians as the SAA collapses.
Caught napping despite knowing that the blow is coming.
Posted by: Surferket | Dec 6 2024 13:12 utc | 28
There's probably an element of deterrence. Then there's also what several commenters (Simplicius I think, not sure Martyanov deals with that kind of comments), which is that the total amount of ATACMS is limited and Ukraine had already spent a good chunk of its stock. Odds are that at last they're hoarding the last few for a more effective and important hit - on top of US opting to calm things down.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 6 2024 13:14 utc | 29
US just shift the salami slicing to Syria which stands a better chance to kick out the Russians as the SAA collapses.
Caught napping despite knowing that the blow is coming.Posted by: Surferket | Dec 6 2024 13:12 utc | 28
It's all part of the plan. Russia plans to abandon Syria, including Tartus and Khmeimim, just so they can then strike back at the terrorists and wipe them out once and for all. also, because out of fairness they want to give their opponent a sufficient head start before beating them into submission. Russians are really stellar examples of fair play.
They could of course have massacred the headchoppers a few years go, but it would have been too easy. Better to let them capture Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and then level said cities to reconquer a field of ruins. Or concluding a half-assed deal before. that's the russian way.
A bit like in the Donbass. Russians prefer fighting the Ukes in the Donbass, make life miserable for everyone there and levelling supposedly Russian cities, rather than bring the fight to the actual homeland of the Galician nazis in Lviv or Sumy. See, it wouldn't be consider gentlemanly to do this.
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:18 utc | 30
I've read that three oreshnik would yield 150 kt of destructive power, as a conventional nuke.
So a single Oreshnik would be 50 kt, it is as powerful as a small nuke. So it also means every submunition has a 1.38 KT yield.
"New physical principles" :)
Posted by: Ledruide | Dec 6 2024 13:19 utc | 31
I am not a physics expert or know anything about ballistic science, but I know a little about human nature. If the west classified the area around the plant, and they stopped firing long range weapons, I have to conclude some serious damage occurred there.
Posted by: Chicago Bob | Dec 6 2024 13:22 utc | 32
If Demented Joe Brandon keeps sending our weapons to Ukraine Trump will have very little to bargain Putin with. Thank God the swamp has stopped sending for now.
Posted by: Fortuna | Dec 6 2024 13:23 utc | 33
There were also reports that Russia successfully took out several HIMARS launchers in the Sumy region, that had the capability to launch ATACMS. I wish I had the Youtube link - it was two guys who report on the war from Eastern Europe. It wasn't Dima, Weeb, or any of the usual suspects.
Anyhow, these guys also claimed that 40 NATO personnel were killed and to get ready for a lot of reports of skiing accidents and bad sushi taking out armed servicemen in the press.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 6 2024 13:24 utc | 34
There were also reports that Russia successfully took out several HIMARS launchers in the Sumy region, that had the capability to launch ATACMS
"There were reports". Now that's what I would call quality investigative journalism.
"Some dude somewhere in a youtube video said..." is now what I would call a solid standard of proof.
It seems MoA is degenerating more and more into a wild echo chamber or village camp fire where everyone can spin a yarn, as long as it's colorful and impressive, out of whole cloth. Kind of like "If the west classified the area around the plant,". Lol. What does that mean even mean ?
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:28 utc | 35
@24 my own post. Well dammit I mixed speeds up. I didn't mean mach3 but 3300m/s
At mach 24 kinetic energy is 8 times that of 1 kg tnt. And the breakeven speed is mach 8.5 , 3300m/s
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 13:32 utc | 36
I admire Ted Pistol. I think the work he did in Syria given the White Helmet frauds was heroic. There he had access to samples and the site I believe. Here he did not. Given his respect status and knowledge I always have time for his analysis. But this time I think he stepped a bit too far given the lack of evidence at the site and Putin comments. Still grateful for his commentary.
Posted by: So | Dec 6 2024 13:39 utc | 37
I saw a Postol interview and he seemed to be winging it i.e. making stuff up. The only physics-ey or science-ey stuff he came up with was his estimte that the warhead would have released a similar amount of energy as its weight in TNT exploding on contact with the ground.
But a TNT explosion on the surface wastes 50% of its energy in creating an atmospheric blast wave and a helluva lot of noise. The witnesses said that the projectiles didn't make much noise on impact but did create mild earth tremors which were felt a kilometre from the target.
Also Postol says the projectiles would only penetrate about 2 metres into the ground. But this overlooks the extreme likelihood that Russia has tested the Oreshnik in Russia and wouldn't have bothered using it in Ukraine if it turned out to be as feeble as Postol has deduced/guessed.
I think Postol is more a Publicity Hound than an informed, or even curious, "expert".
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 6 2024 13:40 utc | 38
It seems MoA is degenerating more and more into a wild echo chamber or village camp fire where everyone can spin a yarn, as long as it's colorful and impressive, out of whole cloth. Kind of like "If the west classified the area around the plant,". Lol. What does that mean even mean ?
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:28 utc | 35
That's funny coming from someone who takes reports by western msm and ukrainian ministry of truth at face value.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Dec 6 2024 13:43 utc | 39
The physics is not an important matter for now due to the lack of available proven data.
The military aspect is also not so important for the same reason, why did the kokhols stop firing ? No more launchers ? No more ammo ? No more data, No more personnel to feed the data ? No more valid targets on range ? Who knows ?
There could be multiple reasons for what the strikes on Russia would have stopped , please don't jumps on conclusions B : they might be no causality at all and we don't know about any counter-order or any public strikes authorization removal from 404's co-belligerents.
The halt on banderast strikes coinciding with oreshnik strike and it can be a political decision as well as it might be a fortuitous coincidence.
Posted by: Savonarole | Dec 6 2024 13:44 utc | 40
@hoarsewhisperer I understand enough of physics to claim that Postol knows what he is talking about. The energy delivered is a good ballpark measure for the damage it does. The surface temperature of the projectile right before impact on the other hand is irrelevant.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 6 2024 13:46 utc | 41
Very interesting posts today on missile physics, many thanks from a novice. I think a relevant point to consider outside this realm is the silence about actual damage caused to the site. Little information has been released, no photos or videos, just anecdotal evidence from locals.
If the effect of the missile strike were truly minimal, would they not show us, and crow about how useless the Oreshnik actually was? Instead, crickets. The video shows no surface explosions, and witnesses say they felt tremendous impacts, like earthquakes. It seems to suggest that the damage was all subterranean. Until they release information on the actual damage, the entire narrative becomes theoretical in terms of the damage or effects. still very interesting to read though.
Posted by: madmarc | Dec 6 2024 13:51 utc | 42
Meanwhile, 'democracy' strikes again, this time, in Romania:
https://www.rt.com/news/608846-romania-court-elections-cancelled/
If you cant win at the ballot by using threats and corruption, you can always count on the courts to do NATO's dirty work i guess..
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 6 2024 13:51 utc | 43
To look at the video of the impact of the oreshnic, the effect was significant but not destroying the facility by any means - much of the blogosphere analysis was b/s. I think the atacams strikes have stopped because they bring risk with little result.
Posted by: jared | Dec 6 2024 13:54 utc | 44
Deployment of Oreshnik demonstrated that US tripwire bases on foreign soil are obsolete because hardened command centers, data centers, etc. are vulnerable. That ATACMS have stopped seems to ratify this conclusion.
Posted by: frithguild | Dec 6 2024 14:00 utc | 45
The videos of the strike do not show surface explosions, so how is it that Dr Postol argues that the impactors only did surface damage? A couple dozen 100kg TNT bombs exploding on the surface would have tossed a bit of debris into the air, wouldn't they?
I think Dr Postol might need to review the videos and update his analysis.
Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 6 2024 14:12 utc | 46
I am increasingly convinced that Postol is either lving in a bubble and using incorrect data points, incompetent, deluded or a deliberate plant by US intel aimed to deceive the public (esp the alt media).
The few interviews i watched, he claimed:
Iranian missiles on Israel had a 2km(!!) CEP (as if Iran didn't have MIRV's of their own??) Does he not remember the precision strikes after Suleimani's murder??
Oreshnik flew 2,000 kms while media reports everywhere were already reporting its source and trajectory which was half of that, around 1,000kms
And now we have his luke warm assessment of its impact... hmmm.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 6 2024 14:13 utc | 47
...
that the total amount of ATACMS is limited and Ukraine had already spent a good chunk of its stock. Odds are that at last they're hoarding the last few for a more effective and important hit - on top of US opting to calm things down.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 6 2024 13:14 utc | 29
Yep. Definitely can't rule out that possibility. And Russia seems to be very good at not running out of amunition and just as good at shooting down 75% of the missiles fired at it.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 6 2024 14:25 utc | 48
“What does that mean even mean ?”
It means Miss Graham and the rest of the DC metrosexuals will soon be calling for Zelensky to start rounding up middle schoolers to feed into the Russian grinder.
Posted by: Fred777 | Dec 6 2024 14:25 utc | 49
I briefly perused the comments, and I did not see that the following was posted. If so, I apologise for repetition.
It seems that many have missed an important point about hypersonic "bombs", namely the kinetic energy of each projectile is focused at the very front of an imaginary cone with its apex at the tip of each projectile. This is distinctly different from a bomb, where the explosive expends its energy in every direction (generally speaking)—the concentration of the delivered energy results in effects similar to explosives of much greater mass. The projectiles are likely to be shaped like relatively thin rods to minimise resistance during travel.
The RAND Corporation published a study in 2018(?) exploring this focused effect, and it appears that a projectile at Mach 10 will have the equivalent force of 8-10 times that force calculated by Postol and others. See here
Posted by: EthanolPaul | Dec 6 2024 14:34 utc | 50
My HTML must be rusty. The word "here" was supposed to be a link:
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2100/RR2137/RAND_RR2137.pdf
Posted by: EthanolPaul | Dec 6 2024 14:35 utc | 51
Also, I was remiss in not listing my source for the RAND link. It was a poster on Naked Capitalism called "ISL".
Posted by: EthanolPaul | Dec 6 2024 14:37 utc | 52
re: hypersonics
CRS Report to Congress on Hypersonic Weapons, Dec 2:
Background and Issues for Congress
. . .the 2018 National Defense Strategy identifies hypersonic weapons as one of the key technologies “[ensuring the United States] will be able to fight and win the wars of the future. Similarly, the House Armed Services Committee’s bipartisan Future of Defense Task Force Report notes that hypersonic weapons could present challenges to the United States in the years to come.
. . .The Navy’s FY2025 budget documents note an intention to deploy CPS on Zumwalt-class destroyers by the end of FY2025; however, service officials announced in November 2024 that the deployment would be pushed to 2027. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 6 2024 14:37 utc | 53
Postol's analysis was so bad, so slipshod, so obviously whipped up on the fly and devoid of factual content, that it calls into question everything else he has ever said. He is also extremely misinformed on Russian satellite capabilities. This man is an expert in precisely nothing. It is time to retire him as a serious source.
Posted by: Gnome Sane | Dec 6 2024 14:54 utc | 54
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/146954
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko asked Putin to deploy the latest Russian missile system "Oreshnik" on the territory of Belarus.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/146953
Putin's main statements about the deployment of "Hazel" in Belarus:
- "Hazel" can be placed in Belarus in the second half of 2025 as its production increases;
- Before deployment, it will be necessary to determine the minimum range of these complexes;
- The shorter the range of the Hazel, the greater the power of the warhead;
- The cost of placing "Hazel" in Belarus will be minimal;
- "Hazel" in Belarus will be part of the complex of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, but the definition of targets will be up to Minsk;
- In the case of the group use of "Hazel", its power is similar to nuclear weapons, but without radiation consequences.
Posted by: guest | Dec 6 2024 14:56 utc | 55
The last Russian missile/drone attack seems to have killed quite a few NATO soldiers, so maybe that at last got the message across. Possibly, Zelensky also got accurate information about the hit of the new weapon showing that there is no bunker deep enough for him. So, Ukraine now returns to the slowly accelerating Russian grind that will soon take Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Kurkhova and Velyka Novosilka - before moving onto Pokrovsk.
With the US/NATO losing in Ukraine, the colour revolution failing in Georgia, and the Zionist regime having to accept stalemate in Lebanon, the world war now moves to Syria. Anyone who thinks that this is not a world war should just look at a map. And tomorrow the Romanian presidential election where the whole oligarch-complex is working overtime to make sure the nationalist Georgescu does not win. If he does, expect immediate claims of "interference", Soros-funded demonstrators, EU calls for a redo etc. As president he has said that he will block both arms to Ukraine and grain exports from Ukraine, and he would also be a check mate to any thought of official NATO boots on the ground using Romania as a base. All the latest polls are showing Georgescu in the lead. The nationalist forces also gained in the parliamentary elections but did not gain enough to for a government, leaving it open to the pro-US, pro-war, pro-EU parties.
In Bulgaria the parliament just elected a speaker after 11 rounds of voting. The nationalists won a majority of seats, but the leading nationalist party GERB have utterly stupidly decided that they will not ally with some of the other "extremist" nationalist parties. Utterly self-defeating and turncoat. The result may be yet another Bulgarian election in a few months. Just like in France, the pro-EU and pro-globalists will try every damn trick to stop the will of the people being reflected in the halls of power. So much for "democracy".
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Dec 6 2024 14:56 utc | 56
Horsewhisperer@38 about Postol being a publicity hound...
Agree completely. Tuned in Postol once (on Nima or Napolitano, can't remember which) and was turned off by his moaning and backbiting against some of the colleagues he works with in Academia. Like Martynov, I am loath to anyone who needs to denigrate other folks (even if they deserve it). If you can't get your point across in a civil, polite way, stuff it.
I'm a physicist so can make sense of his arguments, but know enough about the real world to recognize that microanalysis of anything leads you off into the weeds. The big picture cuts through the chaff and microdetails seldom do.
Posted by: Siimpleton | Dec 6 2024 14:58 utc | 57
In fact, almost every ICBM reaches that speed of "25 Mach", including the first one, the Soviet R7. It has to, because this is the speed of Earth's first cosmic velocity, which stands at 11 km/s, that would be around "33 Mach". However, it is nonsense to use any Mach numbers for a speed in empty space, as 1 Mach is used for the speed of sound, which depends of several parameters. Empty space doesn't transmit sound - the speed is 0. Mach numbers make only sense on approach towards the target. When Putin talks about Mach 10 he (or his advisors that briefed him) means the speed right before impact.
Ted Postol relies heavily on made up satellite (and other) pictures. Most of them are clearly fake - I don't get it, how he don't see wrong shadows, wrong state of vegetation. photoshopped damage, and the like. That makes most of his assumptions extremely weak. And even if the pattern of impact by Iranian missiles in Israel would be correct - you can't assume that this pattern results from a single type of missiles targeted all at the same spot. It could be 10 targets hit exactly (+/- 10 m), overlayed by less accurate ones. Or anything else. Especially, when the report on the attack at the US base in Ayn al-Assad proved CEP of 10 m.
Posted by: BG13 | Dec 6 2024 15:00 utc | 58
Western media eyewitness reports
We have eyewitness reports about the impact from the BBC:"[..]triggering explosions that went on for three hours.
The attack included a strike by a missile so powerful that in the aftermath Ukrainian officials said it bore the characteristics of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)." Link to the BBC article source
The Impact was certainly strong enough to trigger secondary detonation for hours. If this plant was a bunker it was certainly bunker busting. Would be nice if people could search for a plan of the plant.
Posted by: Artkel | Dec 6 2024 15:02 utc | 59
@Posted by: Roger Boyd | Dec 6 2024 14:56 utc | 56
Just in, the day before the 2nd round of the Romanian presidential election, with the nationalist Georgescu set to win, the constitutional court annuls the first round and orders a repeat. Hopefully, the Romanian people respond to this obvious coup by voting overwhelmingly in the first round repeat for Georgescu - of course, if they are allowed to and if the voting system is not tampered with. Unbelievable, the oligarch gloves are truly off.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Dec 6 2024 15:04 utc | 60
Is the Biden Administration trying to set the world on fire? w/ Larry Johnson
World War 3 has begun
What would happen if an 800-kiloton nuclear warhead detonated above midtown Manhattan?
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 6 2024 15:06 utc | 61
Connecting dots:
Correct me if im wrong, but there havent been any atacms since the reported phone call between garashenov and the head of the US armed forces.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 6 2024 15:06 utc | 62
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:28 utc | 35
Dude - you’re literally too lazy to look up the thread and see another poster who wrote the some thing and provided a source (Helmer.)
You’re stuck in a prison of your own mind. Cope harder!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 6 2024 15:07 utc | 63
Re above
Apologies didnt read the full text of Mr Bs article which mentions what i refer too.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 6 2024 15:09 utc | 64
All that Oreshnik supposedly achieved was that Ukraine stopped using a weapon which was ineffective and had no impact anyway on the battlefield, according to Zanon, without achieving any other results (as in, Ukraine suing for peace or stopping attacks on Russian territory.
I wouldn't call that a particulary impressive result.
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:10 utc | 25
A stealth aircraft overflying a target without the enemy being able to shoot it down is ineffective as well however it's the POTENTIAL of what that aircraft could do that makes it a dangerous weapon of strategic consequence.
Likewise of the Oreshnik ... it's not necessarily what it achieved in Dnipro ... although we still haven't seen any evidence of it's impotence from the bomb site. It's the potential of Oreshnik that has the west shook. Or at least it will when the wonks at the pentagon pull out the puppets and crayons and explain to our leaders what the fuck they are looking at.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 6 2024 15:13 utc | 65
[email protected] Russians wouldn't do that, far too many 'self important' people live there ....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 6 2024 15:17 utc | 66
I just don't know. It seems odd that, considering the highly classified nature of the battle-damage-assessment surrounding this incident, Postal would be allowed to even venture any meaningful assessment of what potentially occurred.
I respect Postal's opinion, but treating this as misinformation until all facts are in. I would dearly love to see the classified Satellite Imagery of the site after this incident happened.
Posted by: Scott | Dec 6 2024 15:19 utc | 67
I am doubtful that Postol got this right
Indeed, as I posted in the last open and Ukraine threads I think Postol damaged his credibility by his claims in the Nima interview.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 15:22 utc | 68
So, the bargaining chip will not be Kursk, it'll be Khmeimim and Tartus?
Off topic, dure, but absent missile strikes do not compare to possibility of losing Mediterranean military port and an airbase.
War will soon be over, Trump will come swinging in and the world has already been changed. Just some little genocide sideways, in Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
Posted by: js | Dec 6 2024 15:28 utc | 69
Likewise of the Oreshnik ... it's not necessarily what it achieved in Dnipro ... although we still haven't seen any evidence of it's impotence from the bomb site. It's the potential of Oreshnik that has the west shook. Or at least it will when the wonks at the pentagon pull out the puppets and crayons and explain to our leaders what the fuck they are looking at.Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 6 2024 15:13 utc | 65
I see absolutely no evidence of the west being shook. On the contrary, I see plenty of evidence for continued escalation, they absolutely do not seem deterred. I mean folks, we could be days away of Russia being forced to pack up and leave its only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as only significant air base. The West is confidently pushing Russia around.
It seems the Russian modus operandi becomes clearer and clearer no matter what the theatre of operation is :
- feebly react against NATO encroachment
- conclude some half-assed deal
- sit on their hands while NATO prepares quietly for the next round and rearms
- get caught with their pants down (fooled again !)
- complain (it's not fair !)
- Try to arrange another half-assed agreement
- act surprised when concluding that NATO is not a truthful partner
...
- pack up and leave ?
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 15:29 utc | 70
Meanwhile, 'democracy' strikes again, this time, in Romania:
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 6 2024 13:51 utc | 43
Elections have two kinds of parties: those approved by Washington, and one that is not.
If Washingtons' candidate wins the elections, we are expected to accept the result. If Washingtons' candidate does not win the elections, then problems begin. The election results are not accepted; foreign countries recognize the loser as winner; economic sanctions; speculation against the currency; NGO's; foreign funding. The electoral law is changed; political parties are declared illegal.
The end result of all this may well be that democracy ends up as discredited.
And who can blame people, if democracy is so easily manipulated?
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 6 2024 15:31 utc | 71
[email protected] MOD provided vid from the drone that monitored the strike on the HIMARS convoy......as for yarns and tales, yer in a virtual bar dude what do you want....there are even patrons here who have little to live for except correcting grammar and spelling ....they might be from Manhattan.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 6 2024 15:33 utc | 72
I'm disappointed in Putin -the Ukrainian missile attacks were a perfect time to push home Russia's advantage, and if not end the conflict then put a giant dent in Ukraine's/Nato's ambitions of defeating Russia - a barrage of these new missiles fired at specific targets in Ukraine - might have halted any further retaliation - and demonstrated to Nato that Russia isn't fooling around here - and that we can strike Nato allies countries military depots bases if you don't stop supplying Ukraine with weapons - but a phone call was made instead - and all that's really happened here is the Mission Creep has been slowed down a a wee bit.
Sauron's Eye (Nato/EU/UK/Israel/Turkey etc - will focus on destroying Syria - Iraq - Lebanon - and Iran if possible, and completing the genocide in Palestine for a bit - in an attempt to utterly destroy anyone and any group that opposes their evil goals - but it will continue to lightly prod and poke the Russian Bear - via its proxy Ukraine to try and keep the Mission Creep on track - and if Syria falls into the evil clutches of Sauron and his minions - it will also be used to prod the Bear.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 6 2024 15:33 utc | 73
- My knowledge of those hypersonic missiles is (very) limited. But I do know the following:
1)) the formula for kinetic energy is: 0.5 x mass x (speed/velocity)^2 (^2 means squared). So, if the speed of a missile doubles from 2 to 4 then the amount of kinetic energy is squared in this formula. a speed of 2 squared =4. A speed of (doubled to) 4 means that 4 squared goes up to 16.
2)) My hunch is that the higher the speed the smaller the margin of error. Then a smaller trajectory error translates into a (much) larger chance for a missile to go off the calculated trajectory. That makes me doubt very much whether the concept of hypersonic missiles would even work.
3)) Ted Postol was shown the footage of rocket hitting targets in Dnipro. He and I saw that there were multiple 6 (?? or 7 (???) warheads that hit the target in under say 10 to 15 seconds. The purpose of having multiple warheads is to overwhelm the airdefenses (Think: "Iron Dome" or "US Patriot rockets").
Posted by: WMG | Dec 6 2024 15:33 utc | 74
Oreshnik to Belarus
https://www.rt.com/russia/608852-putin-belarus-oreshnik-missile/
The hypersonic missile systems will be deployed in Belarus, President Vladimir Putin has said
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 15:37 utc | 75
Someting else has resulted in the suspension of firing atacms and stormshadows into russia. Could be lack of western weapons supply or some kind of info that russia would target the backup energy supplies to nuclear power plants in ukraine. Dont think it was due to the demonstration of the wonder weapon oroshnik. It is something gerisimov conveyed to his us counterpart.
Posted by: peacenow | Dec 6 2024 15:38 utc | 76
So according to Pepe, while Russia may be sitting pretty on Ukraine, there is a serious risk they could lose Latakia and Khmeimim if Homs falls. That means Russia is out of the Med. Their Navy has already evacuated the port:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5S5md0JsZQ&ab_channel=DialogueWorks
There still seem to be people who aren't understanding how seriously things are turning, it appears. He does have a tendency to dramatize at times, but does Pepe sound like a concern troll to you?
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 6 2024 15:40 utc | 77
@William Gruff | Dec 6 2024 14:12 utc | 46
The videos of the strike do not show surface explosions, so how is it that Dr Postol argues that the impactors only did surface damage?That is an excellent observation, even if it is obvious in hindsight.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 15:40 utc | 78
[email protected] if the Russia's were really serious about protecting their partners, not their interests, they could plop one of those scary Oinkoinks right on some hardware in Ildib. Might piss the Turks off, can't have that. And Russia doesn't, in any way shape or form, want to piss of the Apartheid State or their little base in Syria would go poof. Appeasement, ain't it grand and glorious!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 6 2024 15:41 utc | 79
"triggering explosions that went on for three hours."
lots of explosives and/or rocket fuels cooking off.
Must have been a worthwhile target. :-)
Posted by: MAKK | Dec 6 2024 15:42 utc | 80
@William Gruff | Dec 6 2024 14:12 utc | 46
The videos of the strike do not show surface explosions, so how is it that Dr Postol argues that the impactors only did surface damage?
That is an excellent observation, even if it is obvious in hindsight.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 15:40 utc | 78
Agree, thank you both. I don't know what the impactors did, but they did not do it on the surface, at least in the videos the Russians provided of the impact.
Lacking evidence from the impact area, best to wait for more.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 6 2024 15:46 utc | 82
This is a quote of "The Sergei Lavrov interview" by Tucker Carlson.
TUCKER CARLSON: Who do you think has been making foreign policy decisions in the United States? This is a question in the United States.SERGEY LAVROV: I wouldn’t guess. I haven’t seen Tony Blinken for years. Two years ago, I think, at the G20 summit, was it in Rome or somewhere? In the margins, in the margins. His assistant, I was representing Putin, and his assistant came up to me during the meeting and said that Tony wants to talk just for 10 minutes.
I left the room. We shook hands, and he said something about the need to de-escalate and so on and so forth. I hope he’s not going to be angry with me since I’m disclosing this. But we were meeting in front of many people present in the room, and I said, we don’t want to escalate. You want to inflict strategic defeat upon Russia. He said, no, no, no, no. It is not strategic defeat globally. It is only in Ukraine.
The event was the 2021 G20 Rome summit, 30–31 October 2021, well before any invasion of Ukraine.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 6 2024 15:49 utc | 84
"Postol's analysis was so bad, so slipshod, so obviously whipped up on the fly and devoid of factual content, that it calls into question everything else he has ever said. He is also extremely misinformed on Russian satellite capabilities. This man is an expert in precisely nothing. It is time to retire him as a serious source."
Posted by: Gnome Sane | Dec 6 2024 14:54 utc | 54
Or maybe two black coated Deep Staters paid him a visit and gave him an offer he couldn't refuse....thereby , the nonsense...
William Gruff | Dec 6 2024 14:12 utc | 46--
I watched both Postol chats with Nima, the second having some photos of damage supposedly caused by Oreshnik. However, other types of munitions were also used that night on that target and many times before over the SMO's term. IMO, none of us have seen genuine photos of the damage; zero afterwards satellite pics have been published. And it's certain Russia knows very well the extent of the damage caused from its own pics and from on-site intel. And as you and others have noted, no NATO person has said Oreshnik was a dud. At some point, Dnipro will be captured and the truth will become known. The further demonstration of Russian naval hypersonics in the Med earlier this week also sent a message about the Wider War that NATO has no way to win.
sean the leprechaun (79).
Sadly - I have to agree with you - its as though Putin doesn't want to upset certain countries - and this reticence to push home a clear advantage - will take its toll on Russia's allies in the region, such as Syria - for me Putin should've made an example of say Poland destroying its military capacity - after it all but emptied its own arsenals to prop up Ukraine - I doubt for one minute the Yanks would've triggered Article 5 over Poland- and it would've sent a stark warning to other Nato loving countries that border Russia.
The Wests war on Russia will not end - its far too profitable - it will only end if Putin takes the initiative - but sadly Putin is playing by Nato's rules and ultimately both he and Russia will pay a heavy price for that - the unknown in this is - would China damage its own economy to come to the aid of Russia - NK would, but China?
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Dec 6 2024 15:57 utc | 87
More and more I distrust Putin.
He is failing to escalate in Ukraine, he is betraying Syria and Iran.
He works for Israel.
Posted by: salmon | Dec 6 2024 16:00 utc | 88
The event was the 2021 G20 Rome summit, 30–31 October 2021, well before any invasion of Ukraine.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 6 2024 15:49 utc | 84
Perhaps they had Maidan, Crimea, Donbas, and so on, on their minds?
Posted by: hh | Dec 6 2024 16:01 utc | 89
I left the room. We shook hands, and he said something about the need to de-escalate and so on and so forth. I hope he’s not going to be angry with me since I’m disclosing this. But we were meeting in front of many people present in the room, and I said, we don’t want to escalate. You want to inflict strategic defeat upon Russia. He said, no, no, no, no. It is not strategic defeat globally. It is only in Ukraine.
---
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 6 2024 15:49 utc | 84
That's funny. "Just one little strategic defeat, that's all, just one."
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 6 2024 16:01 utc | 90
"So, final conclusion :
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 13:10 utc | 25
"All that Oreshnik supposedly achieved was that Ukraine stopped using a weapon which was ineffective and had no impact anyway on the battlefield, according to Zanon, without achieving any other results (as in, Ukraine suing for peace or stopping attacks on Russian territory.
I wouldn't call that a particulary impressive result."
One result it does bring about is making the US take a step back from American troops actively participating in attacking Russia to an advise and support role. The risk to American participants seems to add a bit of de-escalation to the mix, for now.
Posted by: Paranaense | Dec 6 2024 16:05 utc | 92
Now as far as Syria and Russia are concerned, it would of course be a loss to lose the base in Syria.
But other interests seem to be playing a role here, and this game involves Turkey as the main player. Erdogan will regret having stabbed Putin in the back, because without Russian raw materials his plan for the Turkish heavy industry will go down the drain. Erdogan sees his short-term advantage if Assat falls, but would then have to deal with Iran on his direct border, and would lose Russia as a supplier, making him DEPENDENT on the West and the USA. I bet the problems in Syria will change literally in an instant, because Putin can lose the Mediterranean with peace of mind given the development of these hypersonic weapons and their ranges...but Erdogan will regret it...he is only still in office thanks to the help and warnings of the Russians, and owes this ONLY to the fact that any successor would have been a slave to the USA back then. But that has changed in the political environment in Turkey. Erdogan has gone towards the BRICS due to pressure from within, which by the way will probably be history now that Syria is over. The BRICS do not need such heads of state who ONLY pursue their own interests, that is exactly what the USA is. And... Turkey will be in trouble economically without Russia and thus Erdogan... who will soon have elections.
Posted by: ossi | Dec 6 2024 16:06 utc | 93
There still seem to be people who aren't understanding how seriously things are turning, it appears. He does have a tendency to dramatize at times, but does Pepe sound like a concern troll to you?Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 6 2024 15:40 utc | 77
Situation is quite clear. Aleppo and Hama fell in a few days. Now it's either Homs holds, or Assad is out, and with the Russians are out of the Mediterranean.
It all comes down to Homs. It's the crossroads between the north and the south. If the jihadists take it, all the western Alawite country, including Khmeimim and Tartus, are in a cauldron (and a real one).
Given the way jihadists advance, and the abject performance of the Syrian army, it's hard to seem them holding. Unless there's really a "Valmy moment" here. We'll know in a few days.
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 16:07 utc | 94
Quoting Postol's word salad is a waste of pixels. He's pure crap
Posted by: rk | Dec 6 2024 16:08 utc | 95
@ Bemildred | Dec 6 2024 16:01 utc | 90
That's funny. "Just one little strategic defeat, that's all, just one."Another fun passage in the interview (I don't recall the exact words) was when Tucker Carlson asked whether Lavrov had been in contact with others from the west, and the reply was "I don't want to destroy their careers".
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 16:11 utc | 96
I left the room. We shook hands, and he said something about the need to de-escalate and so on and so forth. I hope he’s not going to be angry with me since I’m disclosing this. But we were meeting in front of many people present in the room, and I said, we don’t want to escalate. You want to inflict strategic defeat upon Russia. He said, no, no, no, no. It is not strategic defeat globally. It is only in Ukraine.---
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 6 2024 15:49 utc | 84
That's funny. "Just one little strategic defeat, that's all, just one."
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 6 2024 16:01 utc | 90
Hahahahahahaha. I can only imagine Lavrov going back to Moscow after this.
Vladimir : "Well, Sergueï Sergueïevitch, how did it go ?"
Lavrov : "Quite well. The misunderstandings have been cleared. I have it from Tony that in fact the Amerikkans don't want to really inflict a strategic defeat on us ; they just want to push us out of Ukraine."
Vladimir : "Excellent ! Great ! And me who thought that the Americans tried for twenty years to completely absorb Ukraine into NATO. I'm greatly relieved by what I'm hearing. If our friend Blinken says it, why should we distrust him ?"
Lavrov : "Absolutely ! And to think of all these patriot extremists and milbloggers who spread their poison. Imagine that, some of them go so far as to say we should distrust the US, and that they are quite adept at double dealing."
Vladimir : "Shameful. People are so skeptical nowadays. I'll have to remind the FSB to hunt down these rabblerousers. Is Strelkov already in jail ? Anyway going back to Ukraine : I will tell Gerasimov not to escalate too much. It seems obvious it's only about Zelensky, our American partners do seem to honestly want some resolution to this conflict. Let's not make things worse by escalating too much."
Lavrov : "I totally share this view. Tony was so convincing. I mean, looking into his eyes, I only saw pure, unadulterated honesty. We should definitely not rock the boat too much. Sure, we may lose tens of soldiers everyday, but I've got this hunch that the Americans are going to drop Zelensky and negotiate any day now."
Vladimir : "Perfect. Excellent. (phones Patrushev on the way out to ensure some more military bloggers and TG channels get shut down)".
Posted by: Micron | Dec 6 2024 16:15 utc | 97
Too early to say.
I think they just ran out of atacams.
They'll be back at it before the month is out.
Why?
Well, it's about the only card left they have to play.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 6 2024 16:16 utc | 98
thanks b...
guys go nerds and want to focus on postol... i want to focus on what @ Clueless Joe | Dec 6 2024 13:14 utc | 29 focused on...
have the atacms stopped or are they running low on them?? i am not sure that b's suggestion they have stopped is accurate in a wider window of time.. we'll see soon enough, i suppose..
Posted by: james | Dec 6 2024 16:17 utc | 99
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 6 2024 16:11 utc | 96
LOL. Russians seem to have a very dry sense of humor.
"I urge my western colleagues to consider carefully these points."
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 6 2024 16:20 utc | 100
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the west (thankfully) can't into hypersonics so i have real doubts that any western analyst can understand the impact of hypersonic weapons besides the arrival time
Posted by: leaf | Dec 6 2024 11:19 utc | 1