Syria - Winners And Losers Or Both
Syria has fallen.
It is now highly likely that the country will fall apart. Outside and inside actors will try to capture and/or control as many parts of the cadaver as each of them can.
Years of chaos and strife will follow from that.
Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital.
It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.
Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold.
The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state "from the river to the sea".
Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the 'Syrian National Army' (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.
There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.
Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.
A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan's SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hardline Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus?
During the last years Russia was less invested in the Assad government than it seemed. It knew that Assad had become a mostly useless partner. The Russia Mediterranean base in Khmeimim in Latakia province is its springboard into Africa. There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.
With the fall of Syria Iran has lost the major link in its axis of resistance against Israel. Its forward defenses, provided by Hizbullah in Lebanon, are now in ruins.
As the former General Wesley Clark reported about a talk he once had in the Pentagon:
"This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”
Six of the seven countries mentioned in that famous memo have by now been thrown into chaos. Iran is -so far- the sole survivor of those plans. It will urgently have to further raise its local defenses. It is high time now for it to finally acquire real nuclear weapons.
The incoming Trump administration sees China as its major enemy. By throwing Syria (and Ukraine) into chaos the outgoing Biden administration has guaranteed that Trump will have to stay involved in the Middle East (and eastern Europe).
The massive U.S. 'Pivot to Asia' will again have to wait. This gives China more time to build its sphere of influence. It may well be the only power that has been a winner in this.
Posted by b on December 9, 2024 at 13:50 UTC | Permalink
next page »
IDF casualty tally as of Monday 9/12/2024:
- Merkava: 272 destroyed (unchanged), 710 approximate damaged (+1 from last), 1 targeted (status unclear)
- Narmer (As of 8/12/2024): unchanged from Thursday
- Officers (As of 8/12/2024): 5 eliminated (+4 from yesterday)
- Bulldozers (As of 8/12/2024): unchanged from Thursday
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 14:07 utc | 2
To refer to the invading forces of Syria as anything other than what they are is disgusting. They are NATO TERRORISTS. Call it what it is. Anything else is demented weak sauce.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Dec 9 2024 14:07 utc | 3
Iran is now in the WEF camp.
Its new president, presided to the leak that got Nasrallah killed and then downhill to today ...
He'll go hand in hand with the Don.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Dec 9 2024 14:07 utc | 4
I totally agree. But Iran must not repeat Russian error - to obtain nuclear weapons but top be afraid to use it.
Posted by: Salmon | Dec 9 2024 14:08 utc | 5
Russia must be concerning itself now with just how resilient and sustainable is the political order in Iran. The collapse of Syria is a blow. An Iran that opens to the West, opens itself to destruction; an Iran that doesn't opens itself to collapse, unless it can earn the loyalty of its people by meeting their aspirations.
If Iran, Russia and perhaps especially China can't be relied on to make serious sacrifices for the others, then it's something they should each get clarity about.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Dec 9 2024 14:14 utc | 6
Six of the seven countries mentioned in that famous memo have by now been thrown into chaos. Iran is -so far- the sole survivor of those plans. It will urgently have to further raise its local defenses. It is high time now for it to finally acquire real nuclear weapons.
Posted by b on December 9, 2024 at 13:50 UTC | Permalink
"The Devil finds work for Idle Hands."
The American Empire has Idle Hands.
Defensive nuclear weapons won't help.
The West has found ways to neutralise nukes.
What the Axis of Resistance has to do is keep the Americans busy.
They need to begin making trouble in all kinds of places all the time.
Keep the yanks on their toes chasing 'terrorists' and rumours of terrorists all over the place.
They, and Russia and China need to go on the passive aggressive offensive
Give the Americans too much discretionary time and they'll create nothing but mischief.
Sitting back and playing defensive won't work.
No need to go nuclear about it, just a low-key, widespread network of smouldering trouble will do the trick.
Mosaic Warfare.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 14:17 utc | 7
Russia has allowed the Zionists/Israel to bomb Syria, including Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, year after year, with complete impunity. This colossal defeat for the entire Global South is primarily Russia and Putin's responsibility.
In addition to losing prestige, Russia (and Iran) now has to live with a US-led terrorist nest close to its borders.
The entire region including North Africa will by all accounts be dominated by Zionism/US - the active use of Islamic jihadists globally imported from all over the world, then cultivated and trained in Syria, will scare everyone.
I think this development sets a precedent for the use of Western-backed terror against, for example, China, countries in Eurasia, Russia..
Unfortunately, we are facing an ultra-dirty hybrid war era; Moscow concert hall, Georgia, Romania, South Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Palestinina, Nord Stream, US backyard etc. There is nothing to suggest that the US and the West will be interested in an equilibrium with the remaining 90 percent of the world in a new multi-nodal cooperation.
Russia has never wholeheartedly supported Iran, Syria, The Axis of Resistance - This strategic mistake and short circuit will now be paid dearly by both Russia itself, the entire region and The Global South
And the poor Palestinians who have just borne their martyrdom on behalf of the rest of the world have been similarly let down by Russia.
I have so far assumed that China took primary responsibility for the geo-economic global development in the current anti-colonial global paradigm shift, while Russia (and Iran) in a necessary 'division of labor' had primary responsibility for the military part - if so, Russia has completely failed!
As the first nation in 500 years, Russia has managed to overcome the combined economic and military power of the West (colonialism); Crimea, the SMO, an insistence on geopolitical, geo-economic and 'civilizational' autonomy - and not least its military solidarity with Syria. Globally, Russia has thereby gained a deserved status, prestige and honor - precisely because Russia also acted in a context that was far greater than the country's own national interests
The global paradigm shift away from the West's economic and military unilateral dominance is far more important than the individual nation. By handing over Syria, the region to the jihadists/Zionists/the West, Russia has not lived up to its necessary responsibility. Russia is falling from the peaks now; the loss of status, prestige, power is enormous. It's unnecessary, It's a pitty
And Putin thinks he is so clever and classless and free
But he is still too unilaterally nationalistic (a 'fuxx peasants') as far as I can see - quote John Lennon
Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 9 2024 14:19 utc | 8
However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.
Very unlikely. Russia will be kicked out or it will leave before it's kicked out. Syria, Iran, and Russia are the losers, in that order of impact.
About winners, that's more difficult, need more time for the dynamics to roll on.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 9 2024 14:19 utc | 9
Thx GoM @502
Massive plot twist right inside the venerable Umayyad mosque in Damascus.https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar/status/1866058339282567501
The NATO/Israeli-Turk Head-Chopping Army are now promising the Palestinians they are coming to liberate Gaza and Jerusalem.
😂 🤣
As expected … Qatar’s Ring of Fire … great stuff
Have been enjoying Kabuki theatre for many days now …
Full Circle From Baghdad to Damascus
Massive bombings because the U.S. realizes the back-stabbing ⁉️
Never understood why the RF and SA S300 and S440's were not used to create an AA umbrella over Damascus and Lebanon......
Zero IDF aircraft were downed during this current phase of the ME war........now IDF and US war planes are destroying all SA assets...except in Latakia...........where RF AA is active......
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 9 2024 14:22 utc | 11
b, I can’t help but consider Germany when you make such a comment about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Does not the same apply?
It seems to me that the only way Israel-US prevail - like win, outright - is to take down Turkey. Too big a landmass, too in the way.
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Dec 9 2024 14:25 utc | 12
It will take a while for the hyenas to feast on the carcass, and then I expect they will sleep for a while before they start eyeing each other speculatively.
Perhaps we will have them all fighting over the wheat fields and water and oil soon. Good times.
These resource wars are always the ugliest.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 9 2024 14:26 utc | 13
Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 9 2024 14:19 utc | 10
That's silly. You're demanding from Russia that it protects the Global South. Why it has to do that?
Every stateman in the world would do well by becoming "unilaterally nationalistic", mind their own fucking business, which is the people of their countries.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 9 2024 14:26 utc | 14
HTS is a ragtag group speaking twenty languages, drug addicts, misfits, flotsam and jetsam recruited by CIA all over the planet. They are not going to govern Syria. Israel's known surrogates are two clans of Kurdish gangsters. There are not enough Haredi settlers or CIA case officers to supervise the new provinces of Eretz Israel.
This is purely chaos and we have no good explanation for why Russia and Iran stood aside. The military might of HTS was non-existent. That HTS will be administratively effective is not even a joke.
Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 9 2024 14:29 utc | 15
I posted this also in the older Syria thread-
Here is the Iranian fuller explication of what happened and what Iran did and was prepared to do.
The bottom line is -
Bashar al-Assad's government collapsed due to ignoring Iran's warnings about the growing threat of Idlib-based terrorists, his miscalculations as well as being coaxed by the empty promises about lifting of sanctions.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/225420/Why-did-former-Syrian-President-Bashar-Assad-give-up-power
Posted by: JB | Dec 9 2024 14:29 utc | 16
REMINDER:
Leaked audio: Sec of State Kerry confirms US used ISIS to remove Syria's Assad
Kerry openly acknowledges the illegal nature of such activities, as no Congressional Authorization was ever granted ( no AUMF and no Presidential Finding ever submitted, as prerequisite for Covert Activities, per the statutes born out of the Church Committee)
Now we had Biden effectively deny that he had ordered any US involvement to actually precipitate the collapse; he's only now "helping out" after events that were already in motion have come to fruition....
Posted by: The Archivist | Dec 9 2024 14:30 utc | 17
After a couple days have passed. I think the Russians played it smart. In the geopolitical chess board Syria is a pawn. Its quite obvious to everyone on both sides that the fall happened faster than anyone thought it would. My thinking is that the west leaders thought this would be on going until trump got into office to pit him against Russia and iran. My guess the Russians figured that out from the start of this operation. In return they allowed the fall to happen very quickly to create this quagmire for turkey Isreal and usa. Now you got a situation where the usa has to choose between the kurds and hts. You got the great ottoman empire project vs the greater Isreal project. You have hts who needs the oil and agricultural lands of the east to run a functioning state. No way the 3 countries are going to see eye to eye, Isreal expanded the golan control and sna turkey just kicked the Kurds out of manbij. The new Syrian war started and this time iran and Russia don't need to be involved. It was pawn to sacrifice since now you have a king queen and rook fighting each other. Just my thoughts
Posted by: Feck | Dec 9 2024 14:31 utc | 18
It seems to me that the only way Israel-US prevail - like win, outright - is to take down Turkey. Too big a landmass, too in the way.
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Dec 9 2024 14:25 utc | 14
Yeah, I do think that is going to come up.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 9 2024 14:33 utc | 19
The Sunni Gulf States want a pipeline through Syria to carry gas to Europe...I don't see how that can be done with a Syria in chaos...Gas pipelines are easy to sabotage, with catastrophic consequences for anyone nearby....
Posted by: pyrrhus | Dec 9 2024 14:34 utc | 20
The US now has effective control of the land route for the proposed oil and gas pipelines from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. If these are built, which is highly probable, Iranian control of the Straits of Hormuz becomes largely irrelevant. Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also becomes less important. An Egypt's Suez Canal no longer will be a cash cow.
But, transit fees will make the new HTS government rich.
Posted by: bob sykes | Dec 9 2024 14:36 utc | 21
"There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.
Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do."
This confirms what I suspected, that Erdogan got more than he bargained for when the HTS continued advancing. His plans to offload the refuges into a rump Syria will not come to fruition. As has happened so many times before, Washington will try and fail to use the HTS, and more likely than not it will blowback in their faces. It's hard to guess how the larger geopolitical dynamic will play out, but most scenarios favor Israel at this time. The one thing that's a certainty is that there will be a lot of bloodshed and chaos in the region for years to come.
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 9 2024 14:39 utc | 22
Guys, Turkey may have lost. They may have shot themselves in the foot. Read Erdogan's concerns. First, he has to keep the head choppers playing nice and being at least a moderate success - if they can manage that. He needs the refugees to go back home. Otherwise, the refugee issue gets even worse.
Second, Kurdistan is now more powerful in relative terms than they were. Any thought of HT being a successful proxy army seems like a fantasy to me. Kurds aren't the SAA, they're tough and determined and have some nice terrain to fight in. Good Luck with all that.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 9 2024 14:40 utc | 23
أسد عليّ وفي الحروب نعامة
applies not just to the opthalmologist but the useless idiots opining here. if you want to learn about syria read syrians not westerners who can't speak arabic.
Posted by: xeno | Dec 9 2024 14:40 utc | 24
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 9 2024 14:26 utc | 16
Russia isn't obliged to help anyone. But it becomes cleares and clearer why they have no allies.
Posted by: justaman | Dec 9 2024 14:43 utc | 25
12 - Empty rhetoric. They are there in large part because Israel weakened Hezbollah. The Turkish president says nasty things about Israel but he actually helped to regime-change Syria.
During the Iran-Iraq War, one Iranian offensive was called Operation Jerusalem Highway. Sounds good but Saddam Hussein's armed forces were in the way.
Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 9 2024 14:43 utc | 26
if you want to learn about syria read syrians not westerners who can't speak arabic.
Posted by: xeno | Dec 9 2024 14:40 utc | 26
With respect, seeing how Syrians let their country go down the toilet I wouldn't learn anything from a Syrian at this point.
These people clearly can't run their own metabolisms without external help.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 14:43 utc | 27
An explanation from Russian state media:
Why no one saved Assad's power (RIA Novosti, Dmitriy Bavyrin, December 9, 2024 — in Russian) (Google Translate)
Posted by: S | Dec 9 2024 14:44 utc | 28
The URL for the 2007 Wesley Clark "seven countries in five years" plan is malformed.
Working link: https://genius.com/General-wesley-clark-seven-countries-in-five-years-annotated
Thanks for the analysis, sharp as usual.
Posted by: pessoa | Dec 9 2024 14:47 utc | 29
Iran needs nukes. there is a reason that North Korea has not been attacked.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 9 2024 14:48 utc | 30
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 9 2024 14:40 utc | 25
Yes, this is the consequence of the "Strategy of Chaos".
Noone can control Chaos but everyone thinks they can.
Rolling the dice of destiny may not be in ones favour.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 14:50 utc | 31
Erdogan is an idiot for joining in this. Greater Israel is not gonna let him reestablish the Ottoman Empire, neither will the US.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 9 2024 14:51 utc | 32
John Helmer is among the numerous commentators not sharing the same optimism about Russia's 49 year leases being honoured by the new Syrian Govt, or whomever has control of its adjacent lands:
It appears in a rigged game Russia has just dealt itself (or been dealt, depending on one's pov) a really bad hand.
If anyone is adept at playing with a bad hand it is Putin, although after this latest blunder one does begin to wonder about some of the decisions being made in the Kremlin. Starting with letting Israel bomb Syria unchecked for years and relying too heavily on some very unreliable partners.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 9 2024 14:51 utc | 33
Iran needs nukes. there is a reason that North Korea has not been attacked.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 9 2024 14:48 utc | 32
Also, there are no lawless areas on any of its borders where ideological fanatics may be convinced to throw themselves at the state.
That and North Korea keeps Western media sewage off its networks.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 14:52 utc | 34
The Origins of the Counterterrorism Focus and its LimitationsThe partnership between the United States and Syrian Kurds emerged from a shared commitment to combat ISIS following failed US engagement with other Syrian opposition groups supported by Turkey and Gulf Arab states. The Battle of Kobani [https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Turkey-Op-Peace-Spring.pdf] in late 2014 marked [https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/flashback-how-us-backed-kurds-defeated-isis-in-kobani-syria/] the beginning of an effective collaboration between the United States and the Kurdish People’s Protection Forces (PKK/YPG).
This alliance evolved into the SDF, uniting the People’s Protection Forces [https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/ypg-pkk-terrorists-in-syria-deploy-us-made-anti-tank-tow-missiles/2608669] with some Arab opposition groups and tribal forces (Deir ez-Zor near Iraq border [https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/08/clashes-between-arab-tribes-sdf-forces-syria-pose-challenge-us]), culminating in ISIS’s territorial defeat in 2019.
- Fighting between Arab tribes and SDF spreads to northwest Syria | Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/1/fighting-between-arab-tribes-and-sdf-spreads-to-northwest-syria - Sept 2023 |
Today seen as major fuck-up [miscalculation] by Russian leadership
However, tensions arose as Turkey and its Syrian allies seized key territory in NE Syria, mainly Kurdish-majority areas, in 2018 and 2019, leading the SDF to divert resources and attention to counter this threat. Despite the loss of ISIS’s territorial caliphate, the group remains active in Syria and beyond. [an understatement]
Israel and its sponsor made no friends during Joe's reign in the White House.
@Waldorf – 28
Israel neutered Hezbollah that’s clear to anyone who wishes to see.
Also a little commented event took place on December 6th in Iraq. That’s when Muqtada al-Sadr, spoke out against getting involved in the conflict. I thought it was western propaganda at first but no he said it. Once Iraq fell out of this chain - and if one of the most powerful Shiite organizations abroad did not want to support Assad, then he was doomed.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 14:58 utc | 36
Israel will carve off a nice chunk of the former state of Syria…heheheh
Posted by: Paul Horowitz | Dec 9 2024 14:59 utc | 37
Weak countries need strong leaders
Name one person, apart from the late president Hafez al-Assad, who could keep Syria united? Bashar al-Assad failed in the end, possible because refused to compromise with Turkey. The only possible unifying leader I can think of is ex al-Nusra, now HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani.
The "peaceful transition of power" happened — peacefully. All news of resistance by the Syrian Arab Army was fake news. The only armed resistance to HTS was offered by the Russian Air Force.
All presidents are mortal. The al-Assad family ruled Syria for over 53 year. At some point there would have had to be a transfer of power. If Bashar al-Assad would have decided to step down and announced presidential election, the result would have been the same chaos we saw this week. Mobs would be tearing down Assad statues and Islamist rebels would be taking over towns.
This "negotiated" transition of power was as peaceful as a transition could be.
***
Next question: Can Ukraine collapse in the same way?
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 9 2024 15:01 utc | 38
Posted by: Feck | Dec 9 2024 14:31 utc | 20
My guesses go into the same direction.
After the fall of Aleppo, Putin had to decide to engage in a lenghty, intense and costly support for the SAA to protect South Syria - or to drop Assad and leave a chaotic and difficult-to-handle situation for the other players. To let Erdogan and Netanyahu choke on their sudden success, so to speak.
One might say this is cynical from Putin - because many Syrians will suffer. But the alternative might have been more bloody after all, including Russian blood.
Posted by: ma | Dec 9 2024 15:01 utc | 39
On the Judging Freedom podcast, Professor John Mearsheimer discusses Israel's potential consideration of using nuclear weapons against Iran to prevent its nuclear missile program from advancing to the point of deploying nuclear warheads on missiles.
I believe a key deterrent for Israel would have been Hezbollah's ability to retaliate with a massive arsenal targeting Israel's most sensitive areas. However, Hezbollah's diminished supply lines from Iran have reduced its threat, weakening its role as a deterrent against Israeli nuclear action. And while Iran possesses missiles capable of reaching Israel, their numbers—likely in the several hundreds—are insufficient to serve as an effective deterrent. Consequently, I don't think Iran is to pursue the nuclear path as it lacks the means to counter or deter an Israeli nuclear strike.
Podcast link just before he makes the comment: https://youtu.be/WeJc0w2v734?t=1092
Posted by: bizclass | Dec 9 2024 15:07 utc | 40
Iran needs nukes. there is a reason that North Korea has not been attacked.Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 9 2024 14:48 utc | 32
Highly salient point here.
If this was NOT the case, then Blinken's (and Borrell's last act) with the Putsch in South Korea may have catalyzed the overthrow of Kim.
There's A LOT more that went on here, including (what I'm guessing were) explicit warnings from Moscow, given that the
North Korean–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was just consummated.
Posted by: The Archivist | Dec 9 2024 15:08 utc | 41
It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.
Posted by b on December 9, 2024 at 13:50 UTC | Permalink
Maybe that was part of the quid pro quo, no (significant) RF weapons fall in western hands
Hope they got the pantsir that the rebels were displaying
And as I mentioned before, maybe the quid pro quo is much larger than we see now.
Agreed that Iran is the one who, currently seems all but neutered (houtis are all that's left) but mthey're on schedule for a major crisis in a dozen years.
As a final point, already mentioned in another thread, this entire situation from october 7th onwards might have been the off ramp prepared since the failure of the summer 2023 AFU offensive. (in that case kudos to blinky and the no brain, this would have been a good chess move)
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 9 2024 15:09 utc | 42
Absolutely Brilliant. why MoA remains my #1 go to site.
Posted by: annie | Dec 9 2024 15:10 utc | 43
b,
I have to disagree with your assessment on China. China is also a loser in this. In fact, a big loser. BRICS and BRI are in serious trouble. Fall of Syria is showing all the little countries that have aspirations of breaking away from the dollar or US influence, what awaits them. Most countries are not jumping in head first into BRICS. And now even less.
Furthermore, IRAN and china lost the continuation of the Silk Road to the Med. That is an unforgivable mistake on their part. As for Iran, how could they invest so much money, time and effort in the last 12 years to just lose it in one week? The mullahs will have hell to pay at home, and much to the delight of Zarif and Pezeshkian. They are traitors.
Iran needs to start courting the Kurds and bring them to their side for that is all that is left to create a buffer zone. Also, They need to get into an offensive mode. Otherwise, just count hours and minutes before Israel and US are at your doorstep.
Posted by: Alpi | Dec 9 2024 15:10 utc | 44
Hm! Quote b.
"It is high time now for it {Iran} to finally acquire real nuclear weapons."
But if I would've said that in any thread here you'd have accused me of being a psychopathic murderer.
Posted by: Tichy | Dec 9 2024 15:13 utc | 45
"The global paradigm shift away from the West's economic and military unilateral dominance is far more important than the individual nation. By handing over Syria, the region to the jihadists/Zionists/the West, Russia has not lived up to its necessary responsibility. Russia is falling from the peaks now; the loss of status, prestige, power is enormous. It's unnecessary, It's a pitty
And Putin thinks he is so clever and classless and free
But he is still too unilaterally nationalistic (a 'fuxx peasants') as far as I can see - quote John Lennon
Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 9 2024 14:19 utc | 10
.................................
Might I remark that on your second point, the refusal of Russia and Iran to forestall the Syrian disaster, the Russians had little choice in the matter. You're looking at one hundred and fifty million against a billion. We must not expect the Russians to provide remedies everywhere.
Tried to make that point in a discussion here (The Syrian tragedy":-
https://turcopolier.com/whats-next-2/#comments
In short we, Europe and the US, have direct responsibility for the events in the ME, not others.
On your first point Berletic, in a very powerful examination of the information war, explains that the predominance of the West no longer rests on military and economic power. More on our control of the information sphere. It all sounds a bit theoretical but in fact control of information is the prime means of controlling populations:-
"Just seen that Berletic has taken that concept of “Reflexive Control” a whole lot further. “Control of the Information Space” he calls it, and shows how that can be integrated with economic measures (sanctions), proxy warfare and diplomatic pressure to achieve the desired objective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcN2aZgr8Yg&ab_channel=TheNewAtlas
A tour de force. I had no idea Berletic was into this sort of stuff. Thought he was diligently counting weapons stocks and examining surge capacity.
But as you remark, all this is scarcely new. Craig Murray, in that article on the destruction of Syria I submitted a link to before that destruction became evident, throws in a reference to us doing in Afghanistan what’s done today, and that’s nearly two centuries ago.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/12/the-end-of-pluralism-in-the-middle-east/
Must say, I rebel furiously against the whole notion of “Control of the Information Space”. Are we no more than passive recipients of whatever this or that set of politicians chooses to feed us? Just get at the facts and let us make up our own minds on those.
It’s nevertheless something to be aware of. What were Henry VIII’s efforts to wrest control away from Rome but a man saying “I’ll control the information space here, thank you very much.” To take it up to date the Georgians, who are no fools, are fighting tooth and nail to gain control of theirs right now. They want to do FARA too.
And it can backfire disastrously. Saw that in ’22. The politicians and press were so successful in whipping up our European proxy war fever that they’re now stuck with it. The poor saps have information controlled themselves, and us with them, into a corner it’s going to be very difficult to get out of.
………………..
On a personal note, I saw Berletic putting up a horrific video I recollect from way back. One of the sanctions ghouls, Dana Stroul, coolly explaining how one destroys a country. If Trump manages to throw that sort of twisted thinking into the waste paper basket he’ll be doing us all a service. But I doubt he will. The Dana Strouls of this world will always find gainful employment somewhere."
That beneath a fascinating article on Reflexive Control by TTG on Colonel Lang's old site.
https://turcopolier.com/whats-next-2/#comments
TTG spent the latter part of his professional career in countering cyber warfare so, like Berletic, he's familiar with the concept of information war. Worth studying both for that reason.
Though I suppose we all know intuitively when we're being got at by the politicians. We can scarcely not be aware of that, in Europe at least. The politicians here are taking measures, sometimes quite extreme measures, to deal with thought crime - thought crime usually meaning expressing opinions that don't fit the information world the politicians would like us to live in.
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 9 2024 15:15 utc | 46
Israel neutered Hezbollah that’s clear to anyone who wishes to see.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 14:58 utc | 38
Published : 4 hours ago (Roya news)
The Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) announced Monday the death of several soldiers in southern Lebanon after Hebrew media reports said a Hezbollah mine was detonated.
Four soldiers were killed, and they are identified as:
Major Evgeny Zinershain, aged 43, a company commander in the 9263rd Battalion, 226th Brigade; Captain Sagi Ya'akov Rubinshtein, aged 31, a platoon commander in the 9263rd Battalion, 226th Brigade; Master Sergeant Binyamin Destaw Negose, aged 28, a soldier in the 9263rd Battalion, 226th Brigade; Sergeant First Class Erez Ben Efraim, aged 25, a soldier in the 9263rd Battalion, 226th Brigade.
Rumours of Hezbollah's neutering, I suspect, have been greatly exaggerated.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:15 utc | 47
So what becomes of the much vaunted missile arsenal of Hezbollah?
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 9 2024 15:16 utc | 48
The question for me, is how much was Bashar Al Assad paid/promised to walk away? The whole thing went to easily for it not to have been scripted from beginning to end with all participants playing a part.
Posted by: Matt | Dec 9 2024 15:17 utc | 49
Iran will surely involve itself in Syria via proxies as did in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Posted by: Thurl | Dec 9 2024 15:18 utc | 50
@pessoa #31
It’s funny to read that general trying to rationalize the coming wars as the “hammer-nail” thing while in reality it clearly is the Yinon Plan, or rather, its updated modern version. Why the Americans are going to such lengths to build the Greater Israel, I don’t know. It’s almost like the Israelis are the master race and the Americans are the servant race. Or a golem, to use Jewish folklore.
Posted by: S | Dec 9 2024 15:19 utc | 51
This event has really hurt the credibility of Scott Ritter. He was predicting, even as the rebels rapidly advanced, that the SAA would soon "mop up" the last of the rebels. Dangerous to confuse wishful thinking with reality.
Posted by: catdog | Dec 9 2024 15:21 utc | 52
Posted by: Paul Horowitz | Dec 9 2024 14:59 utc | 39
Noted.
Nobody will cry about antisemitism when the head-choppers will enter Tel-Aviv.
Posted by: Savonarole | Dec 9 2024 15:24 utc | 53
@ 49
Difficult to share your optimism.
Hezbollah is done. The Lebanese government will make a deal with US and Israel and unless Hezbollah wants a civil war, they will go along. Disarmament, disbanding and the works.
They will go along because they were betrayed by the current Iranian government whom I firmly believe they are a plant.
In the next 2-4 months, the Abraham accord will be signed and everybody in the region will forget that there was once a Palestine. What a shame.
Posted by: Alpi | Dec 9 2024 15:24 utc | 54
@ Arch Bungle - 49
Yes, i saw that
Apparently, the soldiers died in a tunnel as a result of the explosion of explosives that Hezbollah had planted several months ago.
If that correct it hardly suggests that Hezbollah hasn't been neutered.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:25 utc | 55
Iran will surely involve itself in Syria via proxies as did in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Posted by: Thurl | Dec 9 2024 15:18 utc | 52
Yes.
Resistance emerges from the void when it is needed.
Resistance returns to the void when its work is done.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:26 utc | 56
Things that come to scene, even when in everybody´s mind, passing by, time ago...
If Israel is the proxy of the US ( read US corporation...) hegemonic power in the Middle East, and Russia never defies Israel, even when that entity systematically bombs its allies´ territory and military bases, eventhough she is in an open war with the US, what we have as a result?
Now, sounds more strange then ever...
IMO, Russia is always trying to get to a deal with the US so that to gain time ( for what one wonders...) and thus available to continuous backstabing and surprises of this kind like this one which has happened in Syria...
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 9 2024 15:28 utc | 57
However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.Very unlikely. Russia will be kicked out or it will leave before it's kicked out.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 9 2024 14:19 utc | 11
Agree with Johan Kaspar
USA-Israel-NATO won. We should expect that they will seek to extend that victory.
Isn't HTS already talking about taking Lebanon (which basically means going to war with Hezebollah)?? They would do THAT for US-Israel but they wouldn't throw out the Russians?
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 9 2024 15:28 utc | 58
An added consideration, iraq and jordan become much more important pieces (at least in the lebanon board) and pressure will grow from both sides (and the target in their heads as well)
Big big question is also on turkey, how far south their influence (if to israel might be fun), and to the east (if us and kurds might be funnier). Maybe success will bring turkey closer to RF (and even iran) than before.
What I'm seriously waiting for is the ukranian angle /off-ramp. And how far it can get.
A last remark on Syria, daddy sphinx dared to play the game for arab hegemony with the big boys, but the age of giants seems to be over in the ME, any of the major players a short cycle ago (say 1979), is there anyone in the entire ME that could hold a candle to them? Secular arab (and berber) states are so last century (except maybe algiers, but they have been smart enough to keep their guard up, maybe they should beware Delenda est Carthago)
And for a final question, how the f*** do we have trump speaking with makron and seemingly ordering Z, etc. Isn't the president elect supposed to not hold conversations with foreign powers? Is the biden admin inboarding trump before the inauguration?)
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 9 2024 15:29 utc | 59
“The NATO/Israeli-Turk Head-Chopping Army are now promising the Palestinians they are coming to liberate Gaza and Jerusalem.”
______
Pull the other one, headchoppers! It’s got bells on!
Posted by: malenkov | Dec 9 2024 15:29 utc | 60
From the River Euphrates to the Sea
b wrote:
The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state "from the river to the sea".
The pro-Ukraine, pro-Israel X account "Terror Alarm" mapped the corridor in a tweet on December 6th:
🚨🇮🇱🇺🇸 The U.S. must help establish a land corridor in Syria, connecting areas controlled by the SDF to Israel.
Kurdish-led SDF is the only Alternative for the Assad regime!
I wrote about this plan already in 2018, in an article on The Duran web site:
US War Plans: Kurdish land bridge to Israel? - Petri Krohn, The Duran, March 19, 2018
...It is claimed that the reason the U.S. needs to occupy the Al Tanf border crossing is to block the land corridor between Iran and Lebanon and thus prevent Iran from supplying Hezbollah. The real reason may be different. If pro-U.S. and pro-Israel forces managed to take control of the Syrian side of the Jordan–Syria and the Iraq–Syria borders then it would enable Israel to supply a Kurdish protectorate in eastern Syria.
The area from the rebel enclave around Daraa to Abu Kemal on the Euphrates is mainly desert. If pipelines could be built on this strip of land then Israel could steal oil from “Kurdish” oilfields and even water from the Euphrates.
MoA is blocking links to The Duran web site. Here is an alternate link to the article via Reddit.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 9 2024 15:30 utc | 61
The destruction of Syria and its geopolitical ramifications go far beyond Syria or even the Middle East.
It is one battle in a (proxy) World War.
Individual conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East to the South China Sea are not discrete, unrelated events but different theaters in this planetary war.
As one commentator has put it,
"What is happening in Syria is a major loss for the Syrian people and their allies, including Russia and Iran and ultimately both China and the rest of the multipolar world.
It is a reminder that the US and its proxies remain the greatest threat to human peace and prosperity on planet Earth today - a potent danger that should not be underestimated....
The current war raging worldwide between US hegemony and multipolarism is essentially World War 3.
Just like World War 2 - there will be great victories and gutting defeats."
https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1865592331367563567
And yes, we are already inside of another World War and have been so for several years. This World War has been marketed and sold under different propaganda narratives, first as the War on Terrorism. And now, as the New Cold War between "democracy and autocracy."
In reality, this is a World War between the West and the Rest. The former is led by America, while the latter is led by Russia, with China and Iran as junior partners.
The West is desperate to maintain its 500-year yoke of Western world dominance.
But to do so, it must subjugate any nation that stands, however slightly, against Western rule. Hence, this explains Western hostility to an assortment of "threats": Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, etc.
The Western hordes don't see this as a world war per se because it doesn't really impact them up close and personal. War is always over there, far away. War is not real, not visceral to these comfortable cretins. They pontificate about "winners" and "losers," as if this war is a video game.
Until one day, the war will pay a long overdue visit to Western cities from Washington DC to London to Berlin and beyond.
That day cannot come too soon.
Posted by: ak74 | Dec 9 2024 15:31 utc | 62
[email protected] would they cry, it'll be a Grande Parade with captured Russian trophies and medals for all......
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 9 2024 15:32 utc | 63
@ ma | Dec 9 2024 15:01 utc | 41
That’s pretty much it. Putin and the Russian leadership are consistent in seeking to minimize the shedding of Russian blood — much to the fury of the “big nuke boom boom NOWWWW!” infants here and elsewhere.
Posted by: malenkov | Dec 9 2024 15:33 utc | 64
When I read certain comments here, I am baffled. Russia didn't betrayed Syria or Assad or the Global South. Russia isn't the savior of the Global South and neither did they asked for the role. This is just lazy & stupid projection. They can help certain countries but only if they have the support of either the population or the army (preferably both).
What happened in Syria now was un-saveble. I'm sorry that some of you think Russia should fight and shed blood for Syria when it was very clear from the start that Assad was missing in action and so was his army.
What is the point of sending a few battalions of Russians/Iranians to waste resources and men for a fight that maybe it wasn't winnable for Assad at the moment? How could a few thousand soldiers from RU/IRAN tip the scale when the bulk of the SAA army probably didn't fire a single shot? How could this action help the soldiers and morale at home when they are fighting a brutal war in Ukraine which is their main and I would say (ONLY) focus?
But even if they want to act as the savior of Syria, Assad allegedly refused Iranian help because he probably though that those Golf kingdoms give a sh** about him (which they clearly didn't). That is on him (even though that maybe he expected more economic assistance from the Arab clowns kingdoms at some point). He has learned the hard lesson.
If there is anyone that should be the spearhead of the global south that would BRICS and their goal should be the creation of a monetary system so that countries like Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, whatever can have a decent chance of being able to get out of the shackles of economic sanctions that the hegemon is inflicting on them. That is still lagging and if it will continue, then of course the West will have enough time to arm and destroy these vulnerable countries one by one.
So if you want to put blame in anyone, maybe start there. And I am sorry to say but it's not only Russia and Iran in BRICS.
Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 9 2024 15:33 utc | 65
My question in all these is, why is China silent? Russia cannot do everything alone and is already stretched in Ukraine. It also does looks like the Empire still has more tricks up its sleeves. This is bad news to the ME and the Global South.
Posted by: gyoome | Dec 9 2024 15:34 utc | 66
S | Dec 9 2024 15:19 utc | 53--
A commentator at my substack opined that ALL western "leaders" are Zionists, particularly within the Outlaw US Empire. It's a difficult opinion to refute.
Russia fulfilled all its tasks in Syria.
Russia did not run with their tails between our legs, like the Americans from Afghanistan (and anyone trying to compare is either an idiot or a liar).
They even fulfilled their individual obligations to Assad – he and his family are safe in Russia.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:35 utc | 68
If that correct it hardly suggests that Hezbollah hasn't been neutered.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:25 utc | 57
Nothing suggests Hezbollah *has* been neutered.
Especially if the purported neuterers are still dying in batches of four at a time.
Moroever:
Would you say that in 2006 Hezbollah had been neutered when they were at a fraction of their current strength and the borders of Syria were still under tight State control?
Would you say that Hezbollah in 2000, when they booted the IDF out of Southern Lebanon, when they were an even tinier fraction of their strength in 2006 that they had been "neutered"?
Remember then that the Syrian state during that time was no particular friend of Hezbollah and the borders were not particularly open.
Would you say that in the 1990s when they caused the IDF so much misery that the Israelis began seriously talking about getting out of Lebanon that Hezbollah had been "neutered"?
There were the times when Mossad headquarters, CIA operatives and Marine barracks were being blown sky high on a regular basis.
Remember back then that the Syrian state during that time was no particular friend of Hezbollah and the borders were not particularly open.
Moral of the story:
It's a long long dong before they'll get around to neutering the Hezbollah schlong.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:36 utc | 69
Hey, you guys, know the funny part, Ukraine Syria ......not one fucker from DC or Whitehall are affected, even the Head Fucker from the Apartheid State....all the janitors might get a raise though, for cleaning the pee off the floor from all the laughter.
Cheers M
.......someone needs to give Russia a map and a compass, you might even need to point them in the right direction......
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 9 2024 15:37 utc | 70
"This event has really hurt the credibility of Scott Ritter. He was predicting, even as the rebels rapidly advanced, that the SAA would soon "mop up" the last of the rebels. Dangerous to confuse wishful thinking with reality."
Maybe so, but tiny Putin's credibility seems to be maintained in these parts despite creating disaster after disaster thanks to his mix of underhandedness, lack of loyalty, corruption, general weirdness, backstabbing, unreliability, etc. Syria probably fell because Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger, run by a control freak that immediately overextended his country once it regained clout on the international stage
Posted by: RIP | Dec 9 2024 15:38 utc | 71
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 9 2024 15:34 utc | 69
Suffering of the jewish people is the lambskin of the Empire's wolves.
Posted by: js | Dec 9 2024 15:38 utc | 72
@ Arch Bungle - 58
The most powerful Shiite political leader in Iraq is Muqtada al-Sadr and he said NO last week. Who knows what he will say in a year's time but for the now it's not going to happen.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:39 utc | 73
So... if israel+us+kurds might be a problem for turkey
Can turkey share and be alt-suni with a little help from its neighbor (we often forget) iran?
Things might become very interesting and bizarre bed fellows might arise from the new status quo. Turkey would probably love being the linchpin in both the the belt and road AND the arabia/europe corridor.
EU might regret not have inboarded turkey when it could...
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 9 2024 15:40 utc | 74
Hezbollah is done. The Lebanese government will make a deal with US and Israel and unless Hezbollah wants a civil war, they will go along. Disarmament, disbanding and the works.
Posted by: Alpi | Dec 9 2024 15:24 utc | 56
Nah.
What's the point of disarming when they're going to get the Gaza and West Bank treatment anyway?
They already know that giving up on resistance will just spawn another dozen Sabra and Shatilas.
There is no gain in giving up resistance - death will come either way.
And on top of it these are Shi'a - they welcome martyrdom.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:42 utc | 75
@ Arch Bungle - 71
A well-argued case and as ever only time will reveal which of us is right.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:43 utc | 76
US military presence in Syria, mostly National Guard and private contractors
. . .from Stars & Stripes
Mission Support Site Euphrates, also known as the Conoco gas field site, is among at least four U.S. bases strategically scattered across northeastern Syria, a territory controlled primarily by Kurdish allies in the fight against the Islamic State [fathered by the US] . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 9 2024 15:46 utc | 77
Why have US and Israel won?
Because they were ready to launch nukes, because they had no moral or other principles but were limited only by the strength of their will.
Very different form Putin's strategy of "careful waiting".
Also, Israel and US manged to create impersonal system of government that assures that their policy shall be pursued no matter the personality of the ruler.
Posted by: salmon | Dec 9 2024 15:47 utc | 78
Regarding Tartus & Latakia, yes .. there is a big possibility that Ru will lose them. Yes, It's not a good look and they might lose the investment done there.
But again, Is it worth losing men and equipment there just to fight another possible long battle (if SAA even had the same fighting spirit as in 2016) without knowing if it will be a decisive outcome? I highly doubt it.
While I'm not expecting Syria to remain in the same relationship with Russia and probably Iran (allies), I do believe that relations will (in worst case scenario) be neutral. Which is not great but at the same time not terrible considering the circumstances today.
At least, they will be a bit better than what the relations between Afghanistan and US are today.
Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 9 2024 15:47 utc | 79
The most powerful Shiite political leader in Iraq is Muqtada al-Sadr and he said NO last week. Who knows what he will say in a year's time but for the now it's not going to happen.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:39 utc | 75
False.
The most powerful Shiite political leader in Iraq is not al-Sadr it is ʿAlī Ḥusaynī Sīstānī.
Al-Sadr's words mean nothing to the Axis of Resistance. He's been AWOL since the Fall of Mosul to ISIS.
The Hashds and PMUs fire missiles at Israel almost daily regardless of what Al Sadr says or what happens in Syria.
They give not a shit what Al-Sadr says.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:49 utc | 80
A well-argued case and as ever only time will reveal which of us is right.
Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 15:43 utc | 78
Of course.
Which is my point.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 15:50 utc | 81
This whole fiasco was a US/Israel trap to get Iran and Russia directly involved to try and save the Syrian state
Wisely Russia and Iran did not fall for the gambit. And as someone posted above now Israel/US and Turkey along with the Kurds and the Jihadists are left with no one to fight but themselves.
Posted by: RP | Dec 9 2024 15:51 utc | 82
Wow…the level of Cope here is off the charts!
The “axis of resistance” has just been chopped in two!
Hamas and Hezbollah are DONE.
Iran is isolated and can expect Russia to abandon them just like they did with their “great Ally” Assad.
Trump will be in office soon and then Tehran will be the next to fall…my guess is that Russia and China bend the knee afterwards…
Posted by: Paul Horowitz | Dec 9 2024 15:55 utc | 83
A Meditation:
If the borders of Syria were difficult enough to keep sealed under the relative stability of the Assad Government what makes people think that under today's conditions of utter chaos they will be easier to seal?
HTS has no capacity to govern!
They don't do border control!
The Israelis, Americans and Turks can only fly by and drop bombs on random convoys.
They too have no capacity for border control.
And now that The State is out of the picture, and with it the Assad bureaucracy:
If the corruption of Syrian society was intense under Assad who thinks it will not be 10x that today?
Smugglers thrive under these conditions.
Smugglers who will be paid to shift whatever goods must pass to Lebanon under whatever tunnels are available.
Smugglers who will do this because that is how they'll feed their families now that the only economy in syria is a black-market economy.
Given this, it could well be that the supplies to Hezbollah will not reduce, but increase ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 16:00 utc | 84
@ 80
Well said.
You cannot be a moral force and have a kind policy against an amoral enemy who does not have an an ounce of humanity.
Russia and Iran keep talking about international law while US and Israel continue breaking them and pretend they are not written for them.
“What are you prepared to do”…..to borrow a line from “The Untouchables”.
Posted by: Alpi | Dec 9 2024 16:02 utc | 85
Iran is isolated and can expect Russia to abandon them just like they did with their “great Ally” Assad.
Posted by: Paul Horowitz | Dec 9 2024 15:55 utc | 85
I seem to recall a statement like this a few months before Iran rained down ballistic hell on Tel Aviv.
They never learn ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 9 2024 16:03 utc | 86
Absolutely Brilliant. why MoA remains my #1 go to site.
@ annie | Dec 9 2024 15:10 utc | 45
"Incisive insight" is what I've come to expect from b. Mainstream, and even most putative alt-stream outlets simmer in fairytales about Syria's past and future, today. Like too much nitrogen in the air. I'm starved for nutitive O2 from MoA. The gap between regnant MICIMATT fantasy and reality widens exponentially, by the day.
This post is evidence of my humble opinion that our host is a great journalist.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 9 2024 16:07 utc | 87
Judge Nap: Alastair Crooke
https://wwww.youtube.com/watch?v=UX2X9KT9Xmg
"Turkey turns on Russia."
Judge Nap: Scott Ritter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnJmBFLOtQg
"How Syria fell."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 9 2024 16:14 utc | 88
Judge Nap: Alastair Crooke (corrected url hopefully)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX2X9KT9Xmg
"Turkey turns on Russia."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 9 2024 16:18 utc | 89
Posted by: Feck | Dec 9 2024 14:31 utc | 20
Best analysis of the situation. Also explains the bombings even after Assad fled. Judo principles, where you use opponent's strength and momentum against him
74% of Syria are Sunni Muslims and I am getting a sence of optimism from Sunni Muslims. Bringing the majority into power in Syria could stabilize Syria. The Sunni majority aligned with Israel to overthrow the Shia / Iran backed minority that has been persecuting them. They are also a potential winner in this. I said potential because no doubt Israel is scheming to destroy and conquer them. I agree that Israel aligned with the U.S. is more than Turkey can handle and expect a military campaign against Turkey in the next decade. However, Turkey is aware of Israel’s expansionist plans into Turkey and are beginning to take it seriously and prepare for that eventuality.
I also think that there is an assumption that Turkey and Jolani are bad faith actors in this. This maybe true, I think such a conclusion is premature based upon the lack of resistance from the Syrian people themselves, to that inclusion. Turkey certainly has geopolitical interests in the region, but I don’t believe that they are interested in destroying the Syrian people.
The Turks are not bad people, they know the region, they know Israel and they understand military matters, put just a little faith in them.
Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 9 2024 16:18 utc | 91
Regarding Tartus & Latakia, yes .. there is a big possibility that Ru will lose them. Yes, It's not a good look and they might lose the investment done there.
Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 9 2024 15:47 utc | 81
Well, hell. What if Russia removes every single useful item from Tartus or Lataki, "allows" HTS to congeal on said property, and then Oreshniks them all into the afterlife?
Will anybody in the "West" cry over their loss?
It's obvious the ugly "West" needs a demonstration, especially the way all those dual-citizens and criminals running the US/Israel government are crowing like banty roosters that "they won" or whatever...
What better way to "demonstrate" to the "West" what they're fucking around with than to take out HTS, do it on ostensibly what is Russian territory, so no one can claim anyone or anything of any importance to the Pigs running the West was attacked.
Just my .02 cents
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Dec 9 2024 16:20 utc | 92
Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 9 2024 16:18 utc | 93
just more genociders. have they admitted that yet? looks to me like they havent changed.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 9 2024 16:25 utc | 93
So is this the lineup card?
- Kurds in control of Northern Syria with US/UK backing
- ISIS/Free Syrian Army with Turk support and CIA support in control of the south of Syria
- Iraqi militias and Syrian supporters in control in the east
- FSA moves up to the Israeli border, Kurds SDF engages in battles with FSA in the North.
Three separate sections and factions?
Chaos just like Libya.........all engineered by the Turks, IDF and the CIA in order to create yet another fail accompli to hamstring the incoming DJT administration.........
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 9 2024 16:28 utc | 94
"It would be something if Erdogan conspired with Netanyahu over what's happening in Syria, only to see backstabber Erdogan hoodwink god's chosen people, divine backstabbers extraordinaire, into a trap, using Syria as bait. (Russia backing off, staying at arm's length)
And then Turkey (population sympathetic to Palestinians) follow that up by smashing israel to bits once and for all."
Yes we can hope, but pigs don't fly, even if we hope really hard! Sadly.
Posted by: g wiltek | Dec 9 2024 16:29 utc | 95
b’s information is spotty at best. The fall of Damascus and the collapse of the regime was brought about by the rapid advance of rebel groups in southern Syria. These were primarily Druze militias. The Turkish gambit was rapidly outstripped by events on the ground, caused by the people.
If your entire analysis is centered around the interplay of national governments and the struggles for regional hegemony (Turkey and Persia and Saudi Arabia and Israel are all struggling to establish their hegemony over the region) you fail to see what is happening among the people.
Conspiracies between powers happen. The people frequently have other objectives.
Posted by: Zargo | Dec 9 2024 16:29 utc | 96
Two views, one from a Syrian, another from a Russian:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIOD0bIvWIQ
This Syrian youtuber just escaped from Aleppo with his family. His perspective might be of interest to some here. Speaks excellent English. He believes The Resistance is over and Lebanon is next.
This Russian youtuber emphasizes the gas angle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4ZEYUDUxPE
(No idea if their views are accurate or misinformation etc.)
Whatever: looks like the Greater Israel agenda is still alive and well.
Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 9 2024 16:33 utc | 97
Agreed Paul H; there is a lot of denial, which is understandable given the magnitude of the strategic defeat for Russia, Iran, the Axis of Resistance, the Global South.
Question why did Russia spent years supporting Assad, and then allow Israel to bomb Syria and Iran, Hezbollah in Syria at will, completely with impunity..
Much suggests that Putin is not the strategic genius many insist on making him out to be.
Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 9 2024 16:34 utc | 98
ak/74 @ 64
Completely correct. No-one seems to have figured out that the operation to take down Syria most likely originated in War Plans in Whitehall or Washington or, maybe, Tel Aviv. It was brilliantly conceived and has, in one stroke, neutralized Iran and its proxies, but has more importantly dramatically set back BRICS expansion and the drive to de-dollarize commodity trading and the expansion of China by interdicting the Belt and Road. Russia has taken a huge hit in that its influence in the Mediterranean and Africa is diminished by its, inevitable, loss of the bases and, maybe more importantly, loss of "reliability". Support for Ukraine will be re-invigorated by this event so the war there will continue longer thereby draining Russia longer.
Whoever planned this operation simply remembered the old military concept: look for your enemy's "soft underbelly". - They found it and planned accordingly.
Posted by: WilsonK | Dec 9 2024 16:35 utc | 99
@99,
Ah yes .. the Russian with a channel "Inside Russia" that ingloriously left Russia some time ago and keeps bashing Russia left and right. I'm sure he has a "valid" point on things above his pay grade.
Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 9 2024 16:37 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Max Blumenthal was talking with Napolitano the other day and he said something I want to go back and listen to again. I think he said there was some strange delay from the Russians at the onset of this. It's all so strange.
It would be something if Erdogan conspired with Netanyahu over what's happening in Syria, only to see backstabber Erdogan hoodwink god's chosen people, divine backstabbers extraordinaire, into a trap, using Syria as bait. (Russia backing off, staying at arm's length)
And then Turkey (population sympathetic to Palestinians) follow that up by smashing israel to bits once and for all.
Posted by: chunga | Dec 9 2024 14:05 utc | 1