Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 8, 2024
Syria Falls

I have yet to fully understand how this could happened at the speed it did happen:

Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad familyAP, Dec 8 2024

BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian government fell early Sunday in a stunning end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family after a sudden rebel offensive sprinted across government-held territory and entered the capital in 10 days.

Syrian state television aired a video statement by a group of men saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government.

“I am in my house and I have not left, and this is because of my belonging to this country,” Jalili said in a video statement. He said he would go to his office to continue work in the morning and called on Syrian citizens not to deface public property.

He did not address reports that Assad had fled.

During and after its fight against takfiri terrorists Syria had come under heavy sanctions. Its main assets in the east were under U.S. control. Israel's airforce was bombing its military infrastructure at will. It was ripe to fall.

As soon as the bogus ceasefire in Lebanon was signed Turkey unleashed its takfiri 'Syrian rebels', many of them foreigners, against Syria. These were exceptionally well armed and trained. They have (vid) night vision equipment, drones, artillery, Starlink communication and a capable, professional command.

The Syrian Arab army proved to be unreliable. Some units just vanished. Others were ordered to retreat in haste even before coming under pressure. One wonders how much of its command level has been infiltrated or bribed.

Throughout the last months Syria's allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad. They perceived that they were being drawn into a trap and rejected to fall for it.

Syria is now likely to fall apart. There will be many bloody acts retributions. A large number of people will seek refuge.

The 'axis of resistance' has lost its main connecting rod. Logistics between Iran and Lebanon will become very difficult.

Resistance however will continue.

A few tweets that caught my eyes:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – 23:17 UTC · Sep 5, 2013

The terrorists in Syria are calling themselves REBELS and getting away with it because our leaders are so completely stupid!

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 – 4:27 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

RIP Syria. My God so fast. Western/Turkish intel co-opted/bought/blackmailed essentially the entire Syrian military & admin into just standing down, and the economy was so hallowed out by sanctions and occupation of Syria's oil and wheat that the state was incapable of resisting.

asad abukhalil أسعد أبو خليل @asadabukhalil – 17:42 UTC · Dec 7, 2024

Ibrahim Amin of Al-Akhbar wrote a few days ago that Russia had warned Bashshar Al-Asad that the axis is collapsing and urged him to reconcile with Moscow-approved Syrian opposition. He refused. Erdogan tried to reconcile with him and he refused. Not sure what he was counting on.

Dan Cohen @dancohen3000 – 2:51 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

There is no Syrian revolution. There is the CIA-run counterrevolution. They sound the same, but are complete opposites.

Syria has lost its sovereignty to competing gangs of Turkish and Israeli-backed jihadist mercenaries who are united in their hate for religious minorities. A dark day for humanity.

Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi – 5:06 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

Bear with me: if the West bet on Russia and Iran turning this into a wide and prolonged bloodfest in which they will be exhausted, softening Iran for a planned fatal blow, it makes a lot of sense for Putin to not swallow the bait, right? And make Syria the West's headache, instead of his? Let the Americans navigate the labyrinth of interests and hostilities in Syria.

asad abukhalil أسعد أبو خليل @asadabukhalil – 16:17 UTC · Dec 7, 2024

I never have a good word to say about the Syrian regime (and never written or said a word of praise for the regime, since Hafidh Al-Asad days) but: how can we talk about Syria and not talk about Israeli-US plans for the region to destroy state and society in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Libya? No matter how ugly a regime is, US and Israel manage to replace it with something much worse. Look at Libya and Iraq. In Afghanistan, the US established a regime so repugnant that people preferred the Taliban.

Michael Tracey @mtracey – 5:59 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which has now seized power in Syria, was declared by the US State Department as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group on May 17, 2018. What's the "over-under" on how much longer that designation remains in place?

Comments

Thx GoM @502
😂 🤣
As expected … Qatar’s Ring of Fire … great stuff ⁉️
Have been enjoying Kabuki theatre for many days now …
The final twist or last throes in Rumi speak.
As Usual, Rumsfeld Stares Down the Storm| LA Times – 1 July 2005 |
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-jul-01-na-rumsfeld1-story.html
”Iraq insurgency could last a decade, admits Rumsfeld”

Posted by: Oui | Dec 9 2024 11:56 utc | 501

About the comment “planned for over a year”
Could this have played out without weakening hezbolah ?
Lebanon/hezbolah is said to have begun because Hamas/gaza.
Now we have discussed LIHOP vs MIHOP for October.
What happened just prior to that? The AFU failed miserably on its summer offensive.
Could this all be plan B?
Is this the off-ramp in motion since then? If so kudus to blinky and the no-brain

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 9 2024 12:11 utc | 502

494 – I haven’t seen a Russian reaction, let alone condemnation of Israeli destruction and occupation taking place in Syria. Not that verbal condemnation means much, but it does mean a little.
Even Erdoğan summons up the odd criticism of Israel, though it is probably insincere and an attempt to play to his own base.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 9 2024 12:13 utc | 503

468 – The least ruthless state in the region, Lebanon, is also the weakest. A good indication of how weak is that years ago a Turkish exile of Arab Alawite origin who was living in Lebanon tried to travel to Greece. She was detained at Beirut airport and then handed over to Turkey. She was tortured at a security services centre near Ankara for several weeks at least, and is in jail in Turkey now.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 9 2024 12:19 utc | 504

Israeli airstrikes are targeting what remains of the Syrian air defence systems abandoned by the Syrian govt forces.
I think that any air defense systems that remain in Syria will be highlighted by Russia for Israel to completely destroy.
I don’t care about Assad, but I pray that the real Syrian lion Suheil al-Hassan is safe.
Those Russians who died in Syria didn’t die for Assad they died for Russia. Russia gained experience and weapons that today are helping then to beat NATO in Ukraine.
Russia is now free to concentrate on Ukraine.
Iran has lost the most: the collapse of the Assad regime has broken the “Shiite crescent”. Iran will now look inwards for a period of introspection and try to sort out its own internal conflicts.
Israel will no doubt create a Druze buffer state in the south of Syria. America and the Trump administration will either support the set up of a Kurdish state in Syria or get out themselves.
At the same time Abu Muhammad al-Julani wants a united Syrian state based on sharia law and the remaining Alawites and Christians will leave for the West
Syria is now the West’s suitcase without a handle and not Russia’s problem.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 12:22 utc | 505

@ Waldorf – 505
You won’t like to hear this but Russia will have already told the Israeli’s where Syria’s remaining air defence systems are.
Clearly many people are unaware of the friendly links between Russian and Israeli intelligence.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 12:26 utc | 506

israel destroying that air defense is also a bonus for russia, as then it wont go to the ukraine, same with other weapons the “rebels” might capture/have captured.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 9 2024 12:28 utc | 507

An interesting theory is doing the rounds.
Russia has thrown Assad under the bus to help Israel win the war.
If this is true, the question naturally rises: who controls Russia?

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 9 2024 12:36 utc | 508

With all the cash being made in Africa and ME resulting from Russia’s presence in Syria, you couldn’t spare some to a few dozen key generals and warlords to keep them happy? Well, now you can say good bye to all that action as your ships sail back to not even Crimea, but Novorossiysk, since you can’t even make Sevastopol safe for your navy. Once again, so much for all those fancy missiles, when better brains and simple drones have checkmated you once again.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 9 2024 9:38 utc | 491
Russia offered assad a loan a few years back in exchange to build up Russia tourism industry and few other things. Assad turned them down. When you start looking at things over past few months, Assad arresting resistance members and not allowing them to start the golan front. Then you realize Assad was banking on the gulf arab states to save. Which would never happen alawhites are the far left in muslim communities.

Posted by: Feck | Dec 9 2024 12:48 utc | 509

451 Siddhartha — “The elite units of the Syrian Arab Army were exclusively manned by his fellow Alawites. Why didn’t they ‘go down fighting’?”
This is one aspect of the defeat of the Syrian army, I have taken away from one of Kevork Almassian’s YouTube discussions (The Gaggle):
The Alawites during the Ottoman Empire were a poorer Shite group who were often harassed. After the OE ended and Syria was able to develop it’s army, the poorer people — the Alawites and other lower classes saw it as an opportunity and joined the army, which is why it has ended up mostly Alawite. Apparently after the Syrian War ended, not only Russia’s neglect to reinforce Syria with adequate weaponry, but also Assad himself reduced the army’s readiness for combat by undertaking to revamp the army. He retired many of the battle-seasoned generals and filled the ranks with younger men who had little experience to face the terrorist incursion. This is one aspect of Syria’s current defeat along with the unanswered question, why did no one plan for the jihadist assault? Just from observation, Almassian, for one, was writing about signs of what was being fomented beginning in October, he has asserted.
Another thought which I chose not to give credence to at the time, but the image persists. In the video of Assad in Russia when he met with Iran and Russia in Moscow, maybe someone saw this. Assad sort of rushed at Putin and embraced and kissed him in greeting. Putin recoiled with a look of enmity, I am quite certain of that, and then I thought Syria is done for. Just an impression. Assad detests Erdowan. Putin probably viewed Assad as a very weak link, therefore, in a sense, contemptible. Sorry, speculations having nothing to do with Realpolitik.
So why did Russia get involved with the chronically ailing SyriA in the first place and what has it given up by withdrawing from this rear or flank line, while the US hegemon builds a fire line from Ukraine to Yemen? Russia loses access to the Mediterranean and an airbase to Africa. Or does it?:
“Russia Ensures Security of Military Bases in Syria Amid Ongoing Turmoil”
“Russian forces in Syria are taking all necessary measures to ensure the security of military bases, stated Russian President’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. He added that the safety of Russian military bases in Syria is a very important issue.
‘Of course, our military are also taking all necessary precautions,’ Peskov said when asked how concerned the Kremlin was about the security of Russian bases there.
He stressed that it was premature to discuss the continuation of Russia’s military presence in Syria, as that would be a subject of future discussions with the authorities.
Moscow is in dialogue with Turkiye, including on the situation in Syria, the spokesman said.”
It’s not forgotten that Russia saved Syria in 2015.

Posted by: Lavieja | Dec 9 2024 12:50 utc | 510

Sss
Re: Posted by: JB | Dec 8 2024 17:57 utc | 292

– Assad talking about relations with Turkey: 15.07.2024
He stressed the importance of addressing the past openly and learning from political mistakes that have caused immense destruction and loss of life, to lay the foundations for a future free from such pitfalls for future generations.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/al-assad-says-ready-to-meet-erdogan-if-it-serves-state-inter

Incredibly naive. Or desperate.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 9 2024 12:57 utc | 511

IMO the most surprising of the recent events has been the fast take over of Syrian embassies by the representatives of Al Julani group that has taken place in each and every embassy in Europe…including Moscow…
How is that, if nobody can guarantee, for now, the territorial integrity of the Syrian nation, and the terrorists who have taken over, for now, are unpredictable? Or is it that thre is also a government in exile backed by Qatar formed which is going to take over from behind the offensive of the terrorists?
Was there a general agreement between global actors, allied and foes, in the Doha meeting on these grounds?
Highly likely, since it would be irresponsible to ceede embassies in national soil to such entity as HTS with this velocity without leaving a reasonable time for the dust to land…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 9 2024 13:02 utc | 512

@ guest from Franconia – 510
“Russia has thrown Assad under the bus to help Israel win the war”.
No, they have just reacted to the reality of the situation on the ground.
Of course, the influence of Jews and Israel can be seen in Russian politics, its not as big as the US but nothing can be done about it and it must be taken into account and as long as Israel do not specifically interfere with the Russian World then Russia dosen’t care tbh.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 13:03 utc | 513

Nima has an interview with Jaques Baud which provides a more reasonable perspective outside of the various groupthink collectives.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Dec 9 2024 13:10 utc | 514

@ Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 9 2024 12:36 utc | 510
My impression is that likely Russia and Turkye agreed that Assad had become too much to bear – particularly now with Israel making moves to expand it’s borders. As Russia has consistently stated, they will allow the Syrians to decide what is the fate of Syria. So I think it will be Syrians with backing of Turkye – a more sustainable arrangement, I would think.

Posted by: jared | Dec 9 2024 13:16 utc | 515

I just want to say that I think Assad has done more than 99.9999999% of the so called “leaders” of our wicked world. He stood his ground for over a decade against huge odds, beginning with the miscreant O’Bomber “Assad must go.” He has been surrounded by hyenas and his country has been bled dry by the thieving Turks, Murikans and Izzyhell which has bombed with impunity for years. I heard that his soldiers were in the end paid only $40 a month. No money left due to sanctions and theft. So, just an opinion. The most chilling part, though is that if Izzyhell, MI6, CIA, the snake Erdogan et al, with some finance from Qatar according to Pepe Escobar, can get by with this they will not stop. Yes, it does seem that Izzyhell has Putin by the shorthairs, alas.
It’s funny, but not haha, that Murika is now bombing the “opposition forces”. better said, the head chopping patsies.

Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Dec 9 2024 13:20 utc | 516

So now there will be a rush to establish influence in Syria – should bring a lot of investment and easing of sanctions potentially. There will be strings attached.
Iran sent home and can focus on its own issues.
Good, balanced analysis (I thought) on RT:
https://www.rt.com/news/608994-damascus-fall-what-next/

Posted by: jared | Dec 9 2024 13:22 utc | 517

Rybar reports that 2,500 SAA soldiers and officers were abandoned by their command in the desert (source):

[video]
🇸🇾 The Syrian state has been gone for several hours now, but its “fragments” in the form of the remnants of the army continue to wander the desert.
Footage has appeared online, allegedly showing over 2,500 soldiers and officers who were abandoned by the command in the Syrian desert, somewhere south of the Palmyra–Deir ez-Zor highway, where they were discovered by militants.
🔻So far, yesterday’s terrorists are trying to follow modern trends and are in no hurry to slaughter members of the “regime gangs,” as they are called in the “opposition” media. However, the fate of these people is unenviable in any case.
Well, it is obvious that no one tried to fight for Assad with such an attitude towards his own army.
#Syria
@rybar

Posted by: S | Dec 9 2024 13:24 utc | 518

@ Posted by: S | Dec 9 2024 13:24 utc | 520
It looks to me that it was widely recognized that it was time for Assad to go.
I find it hard to believe that Russia was not aware of this situation – “on the ground”.
Erdogan decided he had had enough and there is a need to check Israels advance.
Assad was not receptive to intervention.

Posted by: jared | Dec 9 2024 13:31 utc | 519

It was intentional, by design, all prearranged. Putin thru the overthrow of the Syrian government will get America directly involved in the mideast. Americas faggottyassed Irish generals, are going to have to get off of their big fat asses and fight.

Posted by: Robert Browning | Dec 9 2024 13:35 utc | 520

I am hearing the Nima interview to Jacques Baud and got to the conlusion that the Us wins becuase thre there is the will to invest a lot of money in their proteges, something that Russia is not willing to od, or do not have the money for doing…
He, Baud, Argues that probably Assad, lacking the resoruces he had in 2011 and with his nation ruine,d opted for avoiding a blood bath by resigning and ceeding power to the US/Israeli proteges…
Of course, that can not come with certain chaos as the apparatus of the state falls, but thisb laming by the Russian bloggers, like Rybar, on Assad only is unfair…what could a president of a poor country, deprived of ots mani sources of income do agaisnt all the NATO financial power?
If Russia wanted to conserve the influence and terrain it have costed her so much in Syria, better have invested more in the Syrian army and nation, that people, simply, did not have the means and money to fight this second war. Period.
Trying to whitewash Russian role is futil, as it is evident for everyone who can see.
And I would say more, probably the Ukraine gambit, strangely kept going and fueled in spite of the obvious defeat on the part of the AFU, had, for some time now, this other goal, get Russia off-guard and underinvested in Syria, expelling Russia from Syria and the Mediterranean…which is an enormous strategic defeat….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 9 2024 13:41 utc | 521

Today’s headline of the Swedish Lügenpresse: “The fall of Assad! The celebrations in the streets of Damascus”
Swedish main stream media is now officially pro-ISIS.

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 9 2024 14:06 utc | 522

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 9 2024 12:11 utc | 504

What happened just prior to that? The AFU failed miserably on its summer offensive.
Could this all be plan B?

Perhaps, but just imagine them – Ukrainian counter-offensive, Gaza and Syria – working all together, as a one-two-three punch. Knockout Russia?

Posted by: js | Dec 9 2024 14:09 utc | 523

Swedish main stream media is now officially pro-ISIS.
Posted by: Tichy | Dec 9 2024 14:06 utc | 525

same with the german regime media.
the question now is, should people celebrate when the next inevitable “isolated one-time incident” at a christmas market happens again? going by our propaganda media, those are the good guys after all, right?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 9 2024 14:12 utc | 524

@ Ghost of Mozgovoy – 524
Col Jacques Baud is the best analyst around. The West just doesn’t have people like him working on intelligence matters anymore so Russia is lucky.
If there’s one person who you want to listen to its Baud.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 14:24 utc | 525

Here is the Iranian fuller explication of what happened and what Iran did and was prepared to do.
The bottom line is –
Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed due to ignoring Iran’s warnings about the growing threat of Idlib-based terrorists, his miscalculations as well as being coaxed by the empty promises about lifting of sanctions.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/225420/Why-did-former-Syrian-President-Bashar-Assad-give-up-power

Posted by: JB | Dec 9 2024 14:28 utc | 526

@Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 14:24 utc | 528
Indeed, so seasoned and accurate, including the description of a testimony given to him by a US military destined in Syria for some time and who described to him pre-war Syria the same way I did in the “Syria falls” thread…a really lovely peaceful place to live….yet some operatives, one or two, who appeared commenting there more or less accused me of being an emotionally lead tourist….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 9 2024 14:35 utc | 527

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime saved Russia from a war on two fronts. The Americans didn’t expect the militants to achieve what they did. They had hoped to that Russia would be bogged down in Syria. A two front war would have been untenable especially if Turkey had got involved.
So hardly a massive strategic defeat for Russia looking at it from that perspective
If Russia takes the right conclusions in terms of analyzing the information of the Syrian episode, then it wins. One of them is the loyalty of the elites. If the elites are loyal to the centre, this should not happen. And the authorities must be completely confident in the loyalty – and most importantly, the effectiveness – of their armed forces.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 9 2024 14:42 utc | 528

Nima has an interview with Jaques Baud which provides a more reasonable perspective outside of the various groupthink collectives.
ChatNPC | Dec 9 2024 13:10 utc | 516


Thanks for that video
Yes, a refreshingly, reasonable perspective, plus more background about recent history, conveniently forgotten by the west.

Posted by: hh | Dec 9 2024 19:02 utc | 529

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 18:21 utc | 306
One way to look at it is Russia has little chance to ‘win’ (in the strategic sense) in Syria, Russia has little chance to ‘loose’ in Ukraine. The Western coalition knows this, so Putin gets Ukraine for Syria and Iran is the real owner of the bloody nosed rebuff, whilst Israël, as ever, is the real winner.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 9 2024 22:41 utc | 530

Exclusive: Ukrainian Training and U.S. Tech Boost Syrian Anti-Assad Forces
“Ukrainian Intelligence, American Technology Aided Terrorists in Aleppo Offensive”

Further reports suggest Ukrainian mercenaries, recently seen fighting alongside Israel in Gaza, have shifted their focus to Syria, sowing chaos in the region. Social media screengrabs allegedly show Ukrainian militants returning from their operations in Gaza to join HTS and other extremist groups in Syria.

Militias in Syria show chilling future of guerilla war with 3D printed A militant from Hayat Tahrir Al Sham gives instructions at a drone training center
A cached version The National UAE as webpages vanish as we speak 🤬
https://web.archive.org/web/20241204151213/https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/12/04/syria-militants-drones-war/
The X-Twitter message is still present …
https://x.com/TheNationalNews/status/1864317024094060726
As I have written in the past … the NATO offensive is world-wide from the Baltics via Israel, West Asia, Yemen and the Korean peninsula ending in Taiwan.

Posted by: Oui | Dec 11 2024 10:29 utc | 531

Remove brackets …
[https://web.archive.org/web/20241204151213/ ]
[https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/12/04/syria-militants-drones-war/ ]
Link to cached webpage …
Exclusive: Ukrainian Training and U.S. Tech Boost Syrian Anti-Assad Forces

Posted by: Oui | Dec 11 2024 10:41 utc | 532