Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 8, 2024
Syria Falls

I have yet to fully understand how this could happened at the speed it did happen:

Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad familyAP, Dec 8 2024

BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian government fell early Sunday in a stunning end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family after a sudden rebel offensive sprinted across government-held territory and entered the capital in 10 days.

Syrian state television aired a video statement by a group of men saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government.

“I am in my house and I have not left, and this is because of my belonging to this country,” Jalili said in a video statement. He said he would go to his office to continue work in the morning and called on Syrian citizens not to deface public property.

He did not address reports that Assad had fled.

During and after its fight against takfiri terrorists Syria had come under heavy sanctions. Its main assets in the east were under U.S. control. Israel's airforce was bombing its military infrastructure at will. It was ripe to fall.

As soon as the bogus ceasefire in Lebanon was signed Turkey unleashed its takfiri 'Syrian rebels', many of them foreigners, against Syria. These were exceptionally well armed and trained. They have (vid) night vision equipment, drones, artillery, Starlink communication and a capable, professional command.

The Syrian Arab army proved to be unreliable. Some units just vanished. Others were ordered to retreat in haste even before coming under pressure. One wonders how much of its command level has been infiltrated or bribed.

Throughout the last months Syria's allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad. They perceived that they were being drawn into a trap and rejected to fall for it.

Syria is now likely to fall apart. There will be many bloody acts retributions. A large number of people will seek refuge.

The 'axis of resistance' has lost its main connecting rod. Logistics between Iran and Lebanon will become very difficult.

Resistance however will continue.

A few tweets that caught my eyes:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – 23:17 UTC · Sep 5, 2013

The terrorists in Syria are calling themselves REBELS and getting away with it because our leaders are so completely stupid!

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 – 4:27 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

RIP Syria. My God so fast. Western/Turkish intel co-opted/bought/blackmailed essentially the entire Syrian military & admin into just standing down, and the economy was so hallowed out by sanctions and occupation of Syria's oil and wheat that the state was incapable of resisting.

asad abukhalil أسعد أبو خليل @asadabukhalil – 17:42 UTC · Dec 7, 2024

Ibrahim Amin of Al-Akhbar wrote a few days ago that Russia had warned Bashshar Al-Asad that the axis is collapsing and urged him to reconcile with Moscow-approved Syrian opposition. He refused. Erdogan tried to reconcile with him and he refused. Not sure what he was counting on.

Dan Cohen @dancohen3000 – 2:51 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

There is no Syrian revolution. There is the CIA-run counterrevolution. They sound the same, but are complete opposites.

Syria has lost its sovereignty to competing gangs of Turkish and Israeli-backed jihadist mercenaries who are united in their hate for religious minorities. A dark day for humanity.

Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi – 5:06 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

Bear with me: if the West bet on Russia and Iran turning this into a wide and prolonged bloodfest in which they will be exhausted, softening Iran for a planned fatal blow, it makes a lot of sense for Putin to not swallow the bait, right? And make Syria the West's headache, instead of his? Let the Americans navigate the labyrinth of interests and hostilities in Syria.

asad abukhalil أسعد أبو خليل @asadabukhalil – 16:17 UTC · Dec 7, 2024

I never have a good word to say about the Syrian regime (and never written or said a word of praise for the regime, since Hafidh Al-Asad days) but: how can we talk about Syria and not talk about Israeli-US plans for the region to destroy state and society in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Libya? No matter how ugly a regime is, US and Israel manage to replace it with something much worse. Look at Libya and Iraq. In Afghanistan, the US established a regime so repugnant that people preferred the Taliban.

Michael Tracey @mtracey – 5:59 UTC · Dec 8, 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which has now seized power in Syria, was declared by the US State Department as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group on May 17, 2018. What's the "over-under" on how much longer that designation remains in place?

Comments

so now rt is reporting the Turkish foreign minister and russian foreign ministry both saying Assad’s plane most likely made it out of Syria.
This despite the reports of the airplane quickly losing altitude after takeoff from Damascus.
So many wild and stooooopid conspiracies being posted here today, so why not add to it. . .
Assad has resettled in Israel, living with Bibi and perzgozin.
thats why it went up, and then down so fast. just had to clear the golah heights.
lmfao for real though.
he’s probably in Russia or Iran; but due to the ongoing negotiations with Syrian terrorists to maintain their bases / influence, the story of a crashed plane was used, to not upset the new Emir of Damascus’ army to attack these remaining said assets and influence?

Posted by: BurnEye | Dec 8 2024 12:21 utc | 101

Caesar sanctions hoax
The Caesar sanctions are based on a hoax. Allegedly “Assad” murdered and tortured tens of thousands of Syrian “opposition activists”. In reality, the murdered people are more likely to be Syrian civilians kidnapped murdered by the opposition. From our “A Closer Look on Syria” web site:

Torture Photos from “Caesar”
On January 21, 2014, the media grew abuzz with startling news – first broken the day before – of “industrial scale” torture, abuse, and murder of at least 11,000 Syrian prisoners by their government. Such claims were nothing new, but this time they were supported by actual photographs and some kind of study by professional investigators of such crimes. The unusually strong claims and noted parallels with Nazi death camps made waves, among other places, at the Geneva 2 peace conference which began in Montreaux the following day. [1]
The claims were lodged originally by an alleged defector – code-named “Ceasar” – who says he was employed by the Syrian government as a morgue photographer. Over the first 29 months of the Syrian conflict, he says he collected copies of 55,000 digital images he says show about 11,000 dead victims, all of them executed prisoners of the Syrian government. Sometime in August, 2013, “Caesar” says he stopped taking new pictures, faked his own death, and escaped with his trove, as he says, “in order to stop the systematic torture.” [2] With funding from the Qatari royal family, the defector’s narrative was bolstered with the hire of British law firm and a team of three war crimes prosecutors. The latter drafted a report – stamped “CONFIDENTIAL” but ultimately released on January 20th via Western Media in France, Turkey, the US, and UK. (see below) – that analyzed the photos, and passed on the back-story “Caesar” provided. The primary media reports added little to no skepticism, and political leaders have of course added none of their own as they reflexively push their well-known anti-Assad agendas.

Most of the 55,000 photos look like they were taken days after the death of the captives. What we believe happened, was that government supporters were kidnapped, killed and left by the roadside. (There are several documented cases of this.) The recovered bodies were collected to a morgue at a military base, numbered, and photographed for identification. Many of the bodies have tattoos showing Christian and “Assadist” symbols. The British “law firm” has shown no proof that the victims were killed by the Syrian government, apart from the alleged story by the alleged defector.
* * *
@Tichy | Dec 8 2024 9:50 utc | 4

The refugee wave of the past will be nothing compared to what’s to come. I expect Christians, Shiite and any other religious minorities to be murdered in the millions.

Tens of thousands of minority and other civilians were murdered during the first round of the “Revolution”. I expect this round to see fever victims.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 8 2024 12:22 utc | 102

“You {Tichy}are an idiot. Doesn’t matter what your IQ is. Did you know that low-IQ people generally overestimate their intelligence? That certainly applies to you.”
Posted by: Martina | Dec 8 2024 11:56 utc | 72
100% correct.
Tichy is a profane, narcissistic clown with absolutely no civility or manners coupled with the modus operandi of a yelping, rabid dog.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 12:22 utc | 103

Assad is being blamed for not negotiating a frozen conflict deal (a la Minsk) with the eminently untrustworthy Erdogan and his Takfiris…that’s rich. Russia on the hand never provided its Syrian ally with Air Defense to prevent Israel from continuously bombing and weakening Syria. Good luck keeping Russian military bases in Syria!

Posted by: Othello | Dec 8 2024 12:22 utc | 104

With the collapse of Assad regime and utter weakening of shias in Lebanon and west bank, there has never been a better opportune time to rebuild the Jerusalem Temple for the last 2000 years.
Iran’s land access to Lebanon has been cut and new Iranian President policies different
The only card left for shias to negotiate is on the self imposed restraint by Israel to build the Temple without shedding tears and blood of Muslims
Feel the Temple accord will happen in 2025.

Posted by: Michael J | Dec 8 2024 12:22 utc | 105

“seems to be very many Syrian refugees returning “home”.”
No. More Syrian refugees will come to Europe. And Lebanese refugees. And Palestinian refugees. And they will their conflicts with them.

Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 8 2024 12:24 utc | 106

Depressing as it is, this seems to me an echo of the US triumph in Afghanistan where they mobilised warlords qua mujahideen to remove the Russian influence. It was successful and Russia left after a damaging effort to restore order. Now, US and its bought friends in HTS look like a government but this is far from a harmonious group. Russia has declined the baited hook of involvment in an unwinnable ground war in Syria. Putin will consolidate his campaign in Ukraine and focus on a coherent geographical block. I suspect Assad’s regime was unable to support an economy to pay for his army, so tribal influences and bribery hollowed out his defences long before this week. But as in Afghanistan, those tribal factors are still active and the US won’t achieve anything without endless payouts. Russian strategy will probably be to allow the situation to revert to chaotic tribalism and a chronic drain on US resources, since the State Department now “owns” this mess. All those who really ran the regime change are now holding the bag, a position they may come to regret as the French and later US did in Vietnam.
For warmongers, just another day at the office. But only the truly myopic would think this a reason for Washington to celebrate. The problem now is to ensure Iranian autarchy, ideally with a nuclear capability, and wait for the new Syrian civil war to develop.

Posted by: Jorge | Dec 8 2024 12:24 utc | 107

Blaming Russia, Iran.. is not to the point. It is islam that has to get its act together, otherwise they will continue to be played as they have been for 2-3 centuries. Turkey now wins provisionally, KSA, Egypt and Jordan now stay out of the fray but are the next candidates for balkanization…
Posted by: Teraspol | Dec 8 2024 12:17 utc | 100
I have said before here that nothing will improve unless the people in all those lands overthrow their own western installed leaders like Iran did.
There’s a reason Iran is so hated and feared by the Zionists, the fear of a good example and a state free of their control.
Waiting for a savior from outside like Putin or China or Trump is a fools errand. They have their own priorities and agendas.
The solution for the Middle East lies within, at their own hands.

Posted by: Delhiliterally | Dec 8 2024 12:24 utc | 108

Brian Berletic’s analysis is particularly useful as a recap:
https://youtu.be/mcN2aZgr8Yg?si=kUQ3ST-R7kavjSrM
Key points:
– The collapse of Syria was engineered by the US as part of a wider attack on Russia.
– The strategy of overextending Russia as described in the classic Rand Corporation paper titled to that effect is in play
– China has no force projection capability to militarily aid Syria or any country in the middle east.
– The collapse of Syria is not final and doesn’t exclude the re-emergence of a sovereign Syrian state not aligned with the West.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 12:25 utc | 109

Many of you have become attached to the idea that Russia or BRICS stand behind the “axis of resitance” or organisations like Hamas or Hezbollah. Iran does but it beats me as to why. If they want to play empire locally they should probably first handle internal issues with economic integration and liberties before sending tentacles abroad. Also not pick a fight with the strongest imaginable opponent and try to set that as a holy mission.
Russia Iran Turkey brokered an agreement some years ago to keep Syria as it was but that just didnt pan out. None of them except Turkey can support Syria against itself in such a situation as they are not empires. And Turkey only because of geography. Its also their backyard, not Iran’s or Russia’s.
Russia does not need foreign bases, they are not empire and should not be. They have stuff to solve at their borders viz NATO.
That a situation of prosecution of innocent minorities will happen in Syria now, is on those that brokered the initial agreements wanting to be good and show as credible peackemakers. They failed and should learn lessons. The US has made many such mistakes as empire and they keep making them, although that is coming to a close now.

Posted by: alek_a | Dec 8 2024 12:26 utc | 110

Imo what happened looked like it was out of the play book of the 2003 Iraq invasion, payoff as many generals and commanders as you can and walk into Baghdad with minimal resistance.

Posted by: Feck | Dec 8 2024 12:27 utc | 111

The countdown has begun.
Not that countdown.
The countdown for when the entire world goes “we now regret getting rid of Assad.”

Posted by: P Walker | Dec 8 2024 12:27 utc | 112

Alexander Mercouris and a few posters above fault Assad for not meeting with Erdogan. I typically find Mercouris insightful, but on this….
Posted by: Joseph Dillard | Dec 8 2024 12:04 utc | 84
Yes, I’ve been puzzling about this for a week now.
I think mercouris sometimes gets tied up in his anti war dogma and over-admiration of diplomacy.
His belief that diplomacy can solve mankind’s ills sometimes blinds him to the fact that some men just want to see you dead regardless.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 12:30 utc | 113

The countdown for when the entire world goes “we now regret getting rid of Assad.”
Posted by: P Walker | Dec 8 2024 12:27 utc | 112
I’m giving it till Christmas.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 12:31 utc | 114

No. More Syrian refugees will come to Europe. And Lebanese refugees. And Palestinian refugees. And they will their conflicts with them.
Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 8 2024 12:24 utc | 106

that is correct. and the german state will have to accomodate them once again. and now with the high probability of a pipeline built trough syria to europe, the us can make some good dough on the stupid germans, because those refugees will need heat.
thank god im getting my family out of this shithole that is called eu. to bad we sold our property already to a turkish family, maybe we shouldve waited a bit and sold it to some syrians instead.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 8 2024 12:32 utc | 115

According to Vanessa Beeley, who has just escaped from US/Israeli occupied Syria (I think that country will need a new name soon, or perhaps it will need more than one, considering it may well soon split apart) things are going splendidly:
‘Made it out of Syria for the time being. Chaos rules, looting, thuggery and thieving. Gets the US Israel stamp of approval because this is what they believe in. Going through the border was a mash of gunfire, infighting and looting from every single shop and market. Terrorists on motorcycles, gunslingers and criminals. An incredibly sad experience. The house was surrounded by “rebels” drunk in “victory” from 5am, constant celebratory gunfire and around 10 they tried to beat the external door down to loot the contents of the house. Early morning Israel was destroying #Syria Air Defence with bunker buster bombs. The whole house shook. The CIA road map is always the same. The Resistance is broken and I doubt it can be repaired.’
West Asia is disintegrating into a Zionist and US made Hell, and it may well take centuries for things to work themselves out.

Posted by: Hidari | Dec 8 2024 12:32 utc | 116

“They could have prevented this slaughter years ago by just accepting the inevitable”

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Dec 8 2024 12:33 utc | 117

Look at the bright side: At least Russia and The Resistance got to demonstrate to the RoW that they hold the (liberal) moral high ground.
Now let the headchopping commence!
(How else do you think a relatively small force of terrorists will cement control over a whole country?)

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 12:33 utc | 118

“Russian strategy will probably be to allow the situation to revert to chaotic tribalism and a chronic drain on US resources, since the State Department now “owns” this mess. All those who really ran the regime change are now holding the bag, a position they may come to regret as the French and later US did in Vietnam.”
Won’t happen.
The USA and MSM will blame Russia. After all, if Russia can get Romanian elections cancelled with some TikTok videos, what is Russia unable to do? All instability will be blamed upon outsiders, as Americans always do. It’s nothing they do. It’s China. It’s Russia. It’s ‘illegal immigrants.’
Look at how EASILY they transformed headchopping jihadis into pluralistic freedom fighters.

Posted by: P Walker | Dec 8 2024 12:34 utc | 119

there is only one alternative for Russia to against the whole West:
one big nuclear attack against the USA to to completely erase them from the earth’s surface..
All Putin lovers believe in his strategy of slow steps, which, however, only shows that his opponents are getting stronger over time and are always pulling new aces out of their sleeves..
Putin is either a failure or a traitor who will go down in history as Gorbachev 2.0, because after Putin there will no longer be a great Russia..
And all Putin lovers will realize this over time and then, like Saker, will at some point give up their praise for the great strategist and 5d chess player

Posted by: joe911 | Dec 8 2024 12:35 utc | 120

“First we take Damascus, then we take Berlin…”

Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 8 2024 12:35 utc | 121

The fall of Assad and the deviding of Syria is a fact. Well planned and executet, so the masterminds behind are surely not some Jihadist with Toyota Pickups wearing a machine gun.
Russia backs down for: deal about Ukraine? Trump is a dealmaker. Russia will get all what it wants about 404, but has to slip away Syria. Kushner want to serve Israel in mind of Chabat- cult, .. so… deal was made.
my 2 cts..

Posted by: ableman | Dec 8 2024 12:35 utc | 122

Russia could learn something from how Syria collapsed and apply it to Ukraine. Muslims too readily pursue martyrdom and thus end up losing all their charismatic and brave people, leaving only cowards to continue the battle. The Iranians should get rid of their martyrdom complex and seriously invest in security and counter-espionage.

Posted by: clubofinfo | Dec 8 2024 12:37 utc | 123

Finally there’s an Islamic State – in Syria. This time with the help of the USA. I guess flying planes into the World Trade Center, and beheading European aid workers live on social media, destroying churches and archaeological treasures, is all OK provided you’re against Russia and Iran.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 12:37 utc | 124

@73
USA used nukes on Japan which was at best on the ropes. USA did this with men like Marshall, Nimitz and King [I leave one off emperor MacArthur out] advising the civilian “leadership”. Those men were immensely experienced, moral leaders.
USA has no one like Marshall! He was strong enough to recognize the civil war in China in 1947 as a “mud match” that would drag USA down!
The expedient use of nukes is at a much lower level of review.
Shorter USA moral power is bankrupted and it has nukes.
Dangerous!
That said the “ugly American” is back!
It is winter 1964 again.

Posted by: paddy | Dec 8 2024 12:38 utc | 125

Many of you have become attached to the idea that Russia or BRICS stand behind the “axis of resitance” or organisations like Hamas or Hezbollah. Iran does but it beats me as to why. If they want to play empire locally they should probably first handle internal issues with economic integration and liberties before sending tentacles abroad. Also not pick a fight with the strongest imaginable opponent and try to set that as a holy mission.
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 8 2024 12:26 utc | 110
That’s exactly what the Empire wants.
They want you to stay neatly packaged in your walls ‘solving internal issues’ while they rearrange the chessboard outside.
And by the time you’ve fixed things ‘internally’ you’ll look outside to find you’ve been walled in and surrounded, cut off from every other nation that could have offered aid.
It’s how they strangled so many nations before.
In the meantime, the empire sends its tentacles even as far as Donbas, Dagestan and Chechnya ensuring that they’re positioned to strangle every rising power – Who are still busy ‘fixing things internally’.
Once you know how the Empire thinks, everything they do becomes predictable.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 12:40 utc | 126

Is this just the first country to be “cleaned-up” by the NATO West? Will the Serbs in Republika Srpska be next? The remaining Serbs in Kosovo, too? Moldova?

Posted by: Muckraker | Dec 8 2024 12:40 utc | 127

“Trump is a dealmaker. Russia will get all what it wants about 404, but has to slip away Syria. Kushner want to serve Israel in mind of Chabat- cult, .. so… deal was made.”
Posted by: ableman
Look who Trump met some days ago: Bibi’s ugly fat wife and his even more racist piece of shit-son, who is partying in Miami all the time (and in the background slimy, Zionist cocks-sucking Lindsay): https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Trump-Graham-and-the-Netanyahus-600×751.jpg

Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 8 2024 12:44 utc | 128

Frozen conflicts just give the NATO West time to rearm and prepare for another assault. Will Russia see the fall of Syria as a warning and decide to finish the Ukrainian war at the border of Poland? If they leave any Ukrainian territory outside their control, anti-Russian forces will rearm and use that territory to attack Russia.

Posted by: Muckraker | Dec 8 2024 12:45 utc | 129

123 – You may have a point there although I don’t think it is unique to Islam. Although they ultimately won the war, British troops in March 1918 surrendered much more easily to the German onslaught than in 1914 – the 1918 British Army, unlike its predecessor, was partly conscript and war-weary. Conversely the first mass surrenders of Germans happened that summer.
124 – Yes. When the Soviets were pulling out of Afghanistan, a London Sunday newspaper (Observer or Sunday Times – I forget which) ran an approving interview with Bin Laden.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 8 2024 12:48 utc | 130

@Muckraker
“Will Russia see the fall of Syria as a warning and decide to finish the Ukrainian war at the border of Poland?”
The war must be finished at the Atlantic coast.

Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 8 2024 12:48 utc | 131

The countdown is now on for Iran.
There’s supposed to be a saying from old Henry Kissinger …
… but it was also fatal for Serbia, Libya, Iraq and now Syria to be a friend of Russia. They were all thrown under the bus.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 8 2024 12:48 utc | 132

there is only one alternative for Russia to against the whole West:
one big nuclear attack against the USA to to completely erase them from the earth’s surface..
Posted by: joe911 | Dec 8 2024 12:35 utc | 120
______
Yes, because what the world needs most of all is worldwide crop failure.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 8 2024 12:49 utc | 133

https://t.me/rian_ru/272175
Reuters claims that there is a high probability of Assad’s death in a plane crash near Homs this morning.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 8 2024 12:49 utc | 134

@ P Walker | Dec 8 2024 12:34 utc | 119
US can blame the Martians too for all good it will do them. It is now US (through UN) that will have to manage with this mess. It is now ‘their’ mess, not Russia’s and they won’t be able to hide this one.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 12:53 utc | 135

EoinW 97
“The USA may be a malevolent force but at least the American government cares about what happens everywhere(outside the 50 states).”
You need to recognise that you’ve been culturally brainwashed into thinking only white anglosaxon Protestants are morally good and everyone else is evil. The precise reverse would be closer to the truth.
The only thing the USA “cares” about outside the North American continent is killing, suppressing and impoverishing anyone and everyone who might in any conceivable way oppose or complicate their global rule.
China is the only major power that cares about doing real good to the real people of the real world.
For example, the world pretended to care about climate change and CO2. China brought a real solution by developing solar panels and electric cars and batteries better and cheaper than anyone else. But instead of welcoming this – they banned these Chinese renewable technologies in a purely racist act – to hell with the environment.
To paraphrase from America’s “holy book” (LOL) of genocide fairy tales:
“America comes to steal, kill and destroy, but China comes to give life in all its fullness.”

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 12:53 utc | 136

What a bummer. Assad’s government folded like a cheap suit. There is lots of time now for Monday morning quarterbacking and applying the old 20/20 hindsight.
@Tichy – lots of good comments. Thanks. Yes, a lot of those expensive weapons would have been nice to have been used. Shooting down Israeli F-16s that harrassed the Iranian cargo plane and forced it to abort a landing would have been my choice—clear right to defend your own airspace.
As I posted yesterday, what next? The mob caught the car. Now somebody has to try to rule it. I don’t see this Al-Jalani guy making it very long. Scrubbing his past and re-branding him is underway, but there is the pesky little problem of the $10M reward for him on the FBI’s website. Oh, sure that can be taken down, but the Internet never forgets and I think that the Trump admin won’t be so forgiving. At any rate, it is another huge problem thrown into Trump’s lap by the deranged and diabolical Biden admin.
If Erdo really did cut a deal with Putin to save the Naval base and surrounding area, that should hold at least until Trump shows up in January. Erdogan is notorious though for reneging on deals. See Azov prisoners that were supposed to stay in Turkish jails until the end of the conflict.
There is no way to spin this other than a horrible strategic defeat, first for Iran, then less for Russia. But it isn’t fatal to either. For Russia there is a silver lining, as other commenters pointed out. They are now free to concentrate on squishing Zelensky like the roach he is, and have some extra men and material from Syria to play with.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 8 2024 12:54 utc | 137

what PeterAU said says it all “Starlink communication”. Hard to doge that bullet. The swamp hyenas must be popping corks. The only thing Murac-hell brings to the world is death destruction betrayal pollution and theft. I notice that Sleazos is suddenly all chummy w/ Trump & Co. Wants to get his snout in the trough with the rest of the thieves.

Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Dec 8 2024 12:57 utc | 138

Posted by: Hidari | Dec 8 2024 11:56 utc | 73

My point is that China and Russia act as if they are afraid of the US and my inference is that they are afraid of the US because the US has nukes.

It’s not the nukes, it’s the dollars. US Dollars pay for jihadists and weapons and corruption, US dollars are virtually unlimited yet to those producing them, US dollars still retain their value. Russia, China, Iran can do much about the flood of US dollars to various fronts except insulating themselves by the slow process of de-dollarization.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 8 2024 13:01 utc | 139

Let’s be clear the Iranian’s fled. They could have sent in the last week a couple of division to Syria and that in combination of Russian aviation and missiles would have opened up a second front. They didn’t and what Russia has learnt is that it’s on its own the only people that Russian proletariat can rely on are its Armed forces.
The Axis of Resistance is now broken but it was always for the fairies.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 8 2024 13:01 utc | 140

@Delhiliterally | Dec 8 2024 6:04 utc | 531 (from the previous thread)
>>What’s becoming apparent is that a deal has been struck between Putin and the Zionists. […]
>>Thoughts?
I have no better than to repeat my 2c in response to a similar question: surrender your entire position in the Middle East now, in exchange for vague promises in Ukraine down the road? Sounds like an awful deal–Putin might well go for it. 🙂 If Russia, even with all its reputed allies, couldn’t enforce the Astana accords (nor the Minsk accords, but let’s cut Moscow some slack since they weren’t really a party to the latter), why should anyone hesitate to break this new Doha accord, whatever it may turn out to be, when Russia’s position in the region will have been much weakened? Just a matter of getting the timing right.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 8 2024 13:01 utc | 141

So Syria is now to be divided between Genocidal maniacs one one side, religious headchoppers on the other. With a seasoning of Oil and wheat thieves on another, and a saracen sultanate for extras.
THe Syrian National Bank has already been looted, so the US will not get the gold (easily) this time. The Shia shrine of Al Sayyida Zaynab is protected by 40-50 (probably Herzbollah) against 300 HTS.
There are a certain number of Syrian military units that have fled to Iraq. Others say they have been “sold” out. (correct.)
Summary executions ARE happening.
Now the real infighting starts.

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 8 2024 13:06 utc | 142

Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 11:29 utc | 56
Salaam. You can be certain that that commentator knows nothing about Iran or IRI’s deep state power structure. Raisi’s convenient demise cleared the way for Khamenei’s son Mojtaba becoming the next leader. Pezeshkian was permitted to win by none other than Khamenei to address both internal dissent (across the spectrum from regime haters to regime insiders) and also to probe possible appeasement with the West without the hardline faction and God’s very own “deputy on Earth” losing face. And as we know it was the patsy Pezeshkian that returned from New York with egg on his face after the propositions were rejected.
& Salaam

Posted by: sunof27 | Dec 8 2024 13:07 utc | 143

Tichy is a profane, narcissistic clown with absolutely no civility or manners coupled with the modus operandi of a yelping, rabid dog.
Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 12:22 utc | 103
Still running. Your only attack on me at this point seems to be, “my ass hurts.”
I’m tired of this now. At least I have a shithead over at Quora who seems to try to tell me that actually, Diamat was created by Dietzgen and Althusser. https://sv.quora.com/Varf%C3%B6r-tror-ni-V%C3%A4nsterns-v%C3%A4ljare-%C3%A4r-s%C3%A5-utbildade-medan-SDs-%C3%A4r-outbildade/answer/Thomas-Ijon-Tichy-1?comment_id=445991111&comment_type=2&__filter__=all&__nsrc__=notif_page&__sncid__=59484474567&__snid3__=80065059487

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 13:07 utc | 144

No matter how you dress a terrorist in shirts and no matter how positively you present him in the media, a terrorist remains a terrorist. The ISIS “school” brainwashes irrevocably. And the consolidation of various pro-Al Qaeda* and simply Salafi movements, driven by a single hatred of the “infidels” and the goal of building a Great Caliphate, is a powerful tool in the hands of the Great Puppeteers. By the way, the construction of a Single Great Caliphate will mark the end of the World:
It is not difficult to guess that these same Great Puppeteers will not hesitate to use such a tool against Russia. This strategy has shown results many times: in Yugoslavia, in Africa, and in Syria.
A negative economic, social and demographic situation will be further created in order to sow discontent, despair, doubt and anger among citizens. The national republics will be the first to “catch fire”, and then the fire will spread to other subjects.

Posted by: HughG | Dec 8 2024 13:07 utc | 145

@137,
Exactly. For Russia while it’s painful and strategic defeat no matter how it will be spined in the next few days, their only objective should be Ukraine. Not sure what a good deal might be because the options thrown so far is basically a similar deal to what Syria signed with those Turkish militias in Idlib (so a terrible deal). I also highly doubt that they will be able to keep anything in Latakia/Tartus and to be honest, there is no longer any point (I don’t expect those regions to break away from Syria).
Russia should no longer waste any resources in Syria right now. The problem is that considering what we see so far and from a realistic point of view, most of those Jihadi backed militias will fight in Ukraine after this.
Some other people commented above a fairly accurate picture, that morale in SAA was also bad because Assad didn’t do anything about the repeated attacks on Syria from Israel during the last year. It didn’t help that Russia didn’t also engage in anything that Israel sent to Syria. Again, this disaster is also on Russia on how they handled the situation in ME in the last year. Running away from a fight sadly doesn’t show strength or intelligence since they had to keep the SAA army at least in semi-decent shape. gT might be right, these low IQ Arab armies are very prone to low morale hence disintegration when the situation gets bad. But that doesn’t explain how SAA were able to resist in 2014-2016 when the situation was as bad or worse.
Another blunder was Assad’s thinking that once he is back in the Arab League, there will be a reconciliation with the Arab fiefdoms. They showed again this week, that they didn’t had any allies in the region.

Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 8 2024 13:10 utc | 146

When Saddam Hussein’s army fell without any significant battles occurring, it was due to the generals being bribed, suitcases of cash, as even the NYTimes admitted, even amongst all the propaganda it had otherwise aired about Operation Iraqi Freedom. I suspect, as b suggests, that may have been the case here as well.

Posted by: Mastameta | Dec 8 2024 13:10 utc | 147

When I saw the mob in Syria jubilating in the street, I realized that Bashar al-Assad has been living among traitors. I wish him and his family a peaceful retirement wherever he chooses to live now. Sometimes a nation isn’t worth dying for. I hope the terrorists usurping power understand that sooner than later they would be the targets of their sponsors.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 8 2024 13:11 utc | 148

Predictably, because he tends to let his prejudices dominate, Martyanov’s comment is “Well, Arab Armies…”
The idea that Russians might have had something to do with the debacle is obviously a destination he does not want to go to.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 8 2024 13:11 utc | 149

I’m beginning to suspect that Assad died a few days or weeks ago at the start of the invasion (probably assassinated), it was kept hushed up while a deal was finalized, now he can “flee” the country only to have his plane mysteriously shot down by Anti-Air defenses that the rebels didnt have. Everything here screams that a deal was struck behind the scenes between the big players, we’ll know if Russia was part of the plan depending on what happens to their military bases, if it becomes the refuge of the Syrian loyalist, we’ll know that Russia was given some worthless guarantees that will probably breakdown in a year or two. If we watch the Russian abandon the base over the next 3-4 month without resistance, then the Russians were caught totally flat footed and were forced to make a Vietnam style evacuation. Either way, I sincerely hope the idea of freezing the Ukraine conflict died with the Syrian state, the Russians MUST take Odessa and the entire coast of Novorossiya or the West will bankroll another Nazis invasion of Russia in 10 years

Posted by: Kadath | Dec 8 2024 13:13 utc | 150

@ Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 12:53 utc | 136
I thought that the word “malevolent” indicated by disapproval of the American Way. Excuse my lack of clarity.
The European race(and America is European by blood) have a disgraceful history of parasitic empires. China does not have this history. That is the only nice thing I’ll say about China. I certainly would not want to live under the totalitarian rule of the CCP.
As morally questionable as the Anglo-American Empires have been, they have provided their people with the highest standard of living and the most freedom ever. That may be ending, however you can’t take away over a century of prosperity.
Yes it saddens me that Arabs must pay a terrible price. It’s ironic how readers here cheer for the end of the Empire, even though that end – and the collapse of the US dollar – will destroy our own quality of life. We all have an ideal of what social justice should be. However every success by the Empire does buy us a bit more time. If we’re selfish, we’d be cheering on the Empire.

Posted by: EoinW | Dec 8 2024 13:14 utc | 151

The unthinkable must now be considered: Putin is a traitor deployed by Ch*b*d to attrite Russia into a third world province of Nato. Maybe he was switched during one of his visits to Switzerland?

Posted by: Realist | Dec 8 2024 13:14 utc | 152

Not at all a long time ago and not very far away …..
(now and here on Earth in fact).
The Empire Strikes Back!
Change s inevitable b, nothing can stay the same.
Any attempt at holding onto youth or life is doomed and vulgar.
I’ll parse it so that it makes sense to me.
The loss in Ukraine and Crimea is offset against the gain of the desert full of ruins.
Same as the loss by Nazi proxies in ww2 was offset by setting up the illegal Apartheid Entity in the Levant and its bloody expansion ever since.
It gets to expand again, for a while, as compensation.
The stage is set for the C21st Yalta/Potsdam.
Trump is being dealt new cards that he can play with.
They know they can’t wait till the inauguration as years go by in weeks and days.
That is why the crowning in Notre Dame, King Elon there too!
Who else? That is the Old Empires New Guards !
There are not enough head chopping mercenaries around to do much terror in Syria.
The are not enough dancing fool maniacal Izzy devils to invade and maintain boots on the ground terror across the whole desert. Their Drones are another matter.
The uighers can be stood down as can every single crazed mercenary as soon as they get their monthly pay cheque cancelled. Where will they be settled? Too old now to go instigate their great revolt in xianjin.
Maybe. Maybe not.
The crazy CNN rebranding of CIA stooge Jolani !
The natzo SF bearded and living in the desert for a decade or two daring to win!
Lol a handful of dust. Some ancient artifacts. Gold from vaults … nothing much different to when their forefathers were robbing the world setting up the Empire!
Thieving murdering bastards.
It’s grand geopolitical changes – the once in a hundred years that Xi and Putin spoke of.
It is the rubbing out of the pencil lines drawn on the map of west Asia by Lawrence that came out as Sykes Picot.
Lavrovs statement is comprehensive.
It explains much. They have planned this.
The stand down and withdrawal was managed.
No dumb last stands by any Syrian or Russian forces.
That can only happen when they have been so ordered to retreat or stand down.
The meetings in Astana.
The flights by Assad to Moscow.
It seems he had enough with a sick wife and too many years of continuous suffering and war for the Syrian peoples.
He has done what he had to do… let him have what moments he can with his family.
It is the restablishment of the Old Sultanate with Erdo as the new one.
Ancient Baghdad will be the next ambition…
The pipelines and transport will now run through Iraq and Syria and Turkey will be the hub!
Balancing East and West.
The illegal Apartheid Entity gets to keep the Golans and take the Bakaa Valley.
Temporarily.
The Lebanese are fucked.
Palestine will always survive.
The Eschatological Zionist Christians and mad Talmudic converts will have to face the disillusion of having lived lives of fairy tale nonsense.
They will be reprogrammed as per Orwellian doctrine.
They will be told there was no Christianity and no ancient Hebrew tradition except the Khazarian.
In a generation they will believe they never believed such nonsense.
In two generations they will have been long dissolved as the final imperialist colonial state left in the world.
Because the Multipolar will not accept an illegal and Apartheid white supremacist state at the crossroads of the world.
The Empire striking back – was only the middle part… 😉

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 8 2024 13:16 utc | 153

Posted by: EoinW | Dec 8 2024 12:14 utc | 97
Brics is dead after this, and Russia has shown itself to be a bleeding giant.

Posted by: Realist | Dec 8 2024 13:16 utc | 154

146 – But that doesn’t explain how SAA were able to resist in 2014-2016 when the situation was as bad or worse. The SAA may have lost its best troops back then.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 8 2024 13:16 utc | 155

I think Assad was killed 2 weeks ago by Israel or a Coup from insiders (Western backed) before the “March on Damascus” started.
He is a Hero to many people and now he is depicted as a week leader who fled with a plane in the last minute.
The March on Damascus is what they want to happen in Russia too.
In order to avoid retribution and a greater war Russia and Iran are acting according to the script of the winners. Maybe they sold out too.

Posted by: TheWatcher | Dec 8 2024 13:19 utc | 156

One positive note in all of this:
@Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 11:55 utc | 70
“The Syrian people are about to find out exactly why Assad was the best of all options and exactly why lying down supine while the CIA, mossad and Turkish intelligence live-dismember your country is not the most constructive use of one’s time.
They will now repeat the same cycle of events which put Hafez Al Assad into power.
They will repeat the cycle until they understand it.”
You are spot-on. Although sad.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 8 2024 13:20 utc | 157

“Posted by: USSA Empire Of Lies | Dec 8 2024 12:06 utc | 86”
I fear you are correct.

Posted by: LindaJ | Dec 8 2024 13:21 utc | 158

@TheWatcher – that is an interesting theory. Assad wasn’t heard from or seen for a long time, IIRC. If the rent-a-mob had prior knowledge that he was already dead, that would give them the confidence to march unopposed.
This is my last post for a while. These events are too huge to process right now. I would recommend that everyone keep a “scorecard” of all the pundits out there – Simplicius, Dima, Ritter, etc. Compare their statements over the past week with the emerging reality. Then you’ll know who to ignore from now on.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 8 2024 13:22 utc | 159

One more talented than me could write at least a dozen schlock pseudo-political dramas from the insane fantasies claimed with conviction here. And I thought the “Ukraine Open Threads” got bad.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 8 2024 13:22 utc | 160

So now Russia will be severely challenged to hold onto their Mediterranean Base and Turkey has the capacity to choke off their access through the Bosphorus so their navy will be fenced in.
Hezbolah is isolated and no longer will be resupplied, and Iran has now become isolated and all efforts made to bring it down.
So where does hope lay?
Iran has to destroy Israhell’s capacity to bomb.
It has become an existential necessity.
That is the price one has to pay for abiding with evil, the jihadists on the north, the US to the northeast and the israhellis to the south.

Posted by: peterbro | Dec 8 2024 13:23 utc | 161

to Ma Laoshi #92. As it happens I enjoy aristpdemos’ rants now and then. As it happens there are a number of posters here who spin out into insulting terminology. You have options! Don’t read the posts! And don’t tell me who to like and what to read. Didn’t your mother give you the ole saw about “sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me?”
The world is stressed enough without peeps whining and whinging about he said she said. Have a cocktail.

Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Dec 8 2024 13:26 utc | 162

Posted by: Realist | 8 Dec 2024 13:14 UTC | 152
This is very funny and brings some freshness to this sad thread.
I remember that certain users formaly used to regularly post on MOA that the real Putin lives with his family in Switzerland or Germany. The current Putin is smaller than the original, has different ears and speaks differently and, incidentally, is a bad judo fighter, as if he had forgotten how to do it.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 8 2024 13:28 utc | 163

@154,
There lies the biggest problem, BRICS is not a cohesive unit in any way. They don’t understand what ROW wants from them. It’s not about triggering WW3, its more of a creating an economic system that can be used by countries that have been marginalized by sanctions and punishment by countries that control these institutions. That would be the real strength which they showed that they lack completely. I’m expecting Venezuela to be next in 2025.

Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 8 2024 13:28 utc | 164

“I have yet to fully understand how this could happened at the speed it did happen:”
This is what happens when you believe your own propaganda and cease engaging in objective analysis. B like others convinced in the correctness of their propaganda are hastily erecting the “stabbed in the back” justification for the demise of the Assad regime.
Family regimes built on kleptocratic enrichment for assuring loyalty rarely end well.

Posted by: zargo | Dec 8 2024 13:28 utc | 165

@ b
“During and after its fight against takfiri terrorists Syria had come under heavy sanctions. Its main assets in the east were under U.S. control. Israel’s airforce was bombing its military infrastructure at will. It was ripe to fall.
All because Russia has allowed this, no?
“Throughout the last months Syria’s allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition [[Uighur, Uzbek, etc. decapitators?]] and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad. They perceived that they were being drawn into a trap and rejected to fall for it.”
What kind of trap? What compromises were those? Assad seems to have done the honorable thing to reject them. At the end all those compromises have been given without bloodshed, but at least he’s rejected to be part of it.

Posted by: burak | Dec 8 2024 13:28 utc | 166

I suggest barlflies with a few minutes to spare exercise their civic duty and remind the FBI about the 10 Million bounty they have on Al Julani.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 8 2024 10:02 utc | 6
I would bet that the US bounty will be made good on. Who is to say that Julani, having gotten what he wanted, will play ball with the US and Turkey? He, as anyone in that position would, will aim to take the oil fields and agricultural base in eastern Syria. In other words, unify the country or at least consolidate state power. At which time, the bounty will be made good on.
A good weather vane on the US position is whether the sanctions on Syria will be lifted. If not, we can be assured the plan is to let Syria remain a source of disorder and discord in the region — isn’t that, after all, the calling card of the Empire of Lies and Chaos? Use Julani then assassinate him.
As Craig Murray suggests, the pluralist Syria will be gone, but things really are just beginning in Syria. Put in another perspective, Syria is now one step closer to unification than it has been under Assad in recent years. In the grand scheme of things, if the end that goal we want is stability in the region, it had to pass through this point.

Posted by: Mastameta | Dec 8 2024 13:28 utc | 167

Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi – 5:06 UTC · Dec 8, 2024
Bear with me: if the West bet on Russia and Iran turning this into a wide and prolonged bloodfest in which they will be exhausted, softening Iran for a planned fatal blow, it makes a lot of sense for Putin to not swallow the bait, right? And make Syria the West’s headache, instead of his? Let the Americans navigate the labyrinth of interests and hostilities in Syria.

That thought resonates with me. The US/NATO strategy has been to force Russia to overextend itself, with the hope that it would collapse from the internal tensions. Russia has wisely paced itself in the Ukraine conflict, and I can believe that both Russia and Iran have chosen wisely not to risk getting mired in an extended war in Syria.
In the long term, the US/NATO/Israel group may discover that owning Lebanon and Syria is unpleasant and expensive. Just as it was for the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. Like the old story of Br’er Rabbit and the Tar Baby.

Posted by: Clever Dog | Dec 8 2024 13:31 utc | 168

If you truly despise Evil…
Ask yourself, “Am I willing to do what is necessary to remove the Evil from my own country?”
99.9% of us have an excuse.
So the slaughter and suffering will continue.
But don’t for a moment think they won’t come for you next, that you are safe, that they will share their trans-humanist utopia with you.
Unless you and your friends have Courage, you and all will enjoy the fate of Winston Smith.

Posted by: OldFart | Dec 8 2024 13:32 utc | 169

Assad´s stubborness in denying acceptance of an opposition which allied with foreign powers brought a terrorist mercenary force which destroyed wide swaths of the country and its world heritage sites plus facilitating the appropiation of the oil and gas fields plus the most fertile lands which, this way, got in the hands of the US to be illegally exploited, ruining the country?
Well, that does not sound like stubborness but like a principled person remaining fidel to his principles on not sharing the country with clear bandits.
It is as if now the Russians would advise the current government in Georgia to share government and parliament with those who have collected minority votes and are setting the surroundings of the Georgian parliament on fire creating continuous turmoil….one has to have stomach for that, and the Assads, obviously, lack such, hence their health state…
Would Russia, or Iran for that matter, convene to such arrangement in their countries? I´ll tell you, no, thus, “advise I give that for me I do not have”, that we say around here…
Neither Russia, nor Iran, grow stronger with this move…they are betting on that Trump will fullfill his electoral promises, in a country like the US where it is amoral people who rules really..
Good luck with that…the people and governments of the so called now Global South are taking note…like they are taking all the disidents in Europe…
I wish all the best to the Assad family, the suffering they all carried through this long assault and sacrifice of the Syrian nation was obviously evident on them phisically. They did all what they could.
In their favor, I visited Syria some few years before the war and found a prosperous functioning country where restaurnats were full of families, bazars plenty of women doing the shopping at sunset, and you could walk safe even at night to go dinning, something you can not do today in the US or Europe…to the extent that I left with the intention of returning soon for a sabatic year with the goal of learning arabic…of the so comfortably I felt while staying there…
Education was universally mandatory, and thus, you could see little beduins so well combed and tidy, going to school by the side of the road when travelling through the country…..Why a tirant would want its population being educated at universal level, one wonders…
In the new Syria of the Muslim Brotherhood, forget about it, liberal capitalism in its most extreme form will be impossed and thus, from now on, there will only study the rich and their descendants so that to ensure the government never falls into the hands of the people so as to asure their issues are also taken into account. Probably something that it is of the liking of Moscow….
Such warm, caring and helpful seemed to me that Mediterranean brotherly people…I felt like at home…never will forget them, because Syria will never be the same as she originally was, the most tolerant place in the Middle East…And I can tell it because I have travelled the whole Middle East, except Irak and Lybia, and that, thank you to the US and its WOT, since I had no the time to go there before those countries were destroyed by the usual destroyers of civilizations, peoples and countries, US “coalition” of terrorists and plundering Western corporations…
Crying for Syria…and Lebanon, which I visited more recently, some few yars ago, out of deduction, from of my affiction to geopolitics, that it will be invaded by the terrorists who now are now taking over Syria, as they were already infiltrating Tripoli in the north….
Wondering whether this is another nail in Europe´s coffin, and somehow Russian vengeance, since the sure flood of refugees who do not want to live in an islamic country under the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood will leave for here, where things are in a not good shape, thanks to the US and the UK, their terrorists attacks against vital infrastructures, and their foreign agents placed in the European Comission which take care of our complete ruin…
On a side note, when I visited Syria, the restaurant next to the Crac des Cavaliers castle was ruled by a big funny transvestite who went out of his way to ensure that we never lacked anything and left plenty, chanting in perfect Spanish..( still I can here him…as if I was there…) “más pollo, más patatas?”…Would you imagine such thing happening in a Muslim Brotherhood ruled country?
Unforgetable free Syria… and unforgetable last years of our youth…which will be no more….
Hours before leaving, I was observing, from my hotel room window, a woman who, dressed in black abaya, walked in a quiet way in that warm last hours of a late summer day, wondering when I would return… and whether things would remain the same, so placid, in that other corner of the Mediterranean…premonitory, isn´t it, that of the woman in islamic attire as the last view of Syria?
I hope such civilized for milennia people will not be exterminated by the usual barbarians thieving vultures from the US/UK, Israel and Arabian sands…but, could Russia or Iran guarantee that? I doubt it, since they could do nothing while the Gazaoui people is being exterminated from the face of Earth…
Bad times for humanity… when brutal force, greed and fanaticism steps over tolerant, peaceful, unarmed people of the world…
Time to take shooting lessons, so that the same fate ( which will for sure come for our countries, as the evidence of how many barbarians, who have not come to work here, we have already inside, point at…) do not swallow us all?
Neither Russia, nor Iran, nevermind the world, is a more secure place now when terrorist have taken over such a huge country….Free way for the Caucassus terrorists… if trained and reunited in such ammount…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 13:33 utc | 170

Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 8 2024 11:49 utc | 65
1- Financial power.
Both China and Russia have enough money to bribe Generals, they don’t want to for moral reasons. They have recent experience with war and strife, this would not lead to the world they want to live and deal in – at least not more than necessary.
2- Network of Allies. No Match. NATO, Aukus et alii.
US allies are overrated and being exploited/sold for gain right now. This is actually a weakness compared to core BRICS.
3- Network of Proxies. No Match.
This is the main leverage of the US – color revolutions, comprador regimes and pallets of cash.
3- Network of Bases. No Match.
For now this is a benefit bot both costly and as with any leverage can quickly turn against them if the opponents are unified.
4- Network of Legacy and New Media. No Match.
They are very good at propaganda to the extent they believe it themselves. Narratives don’t won wars in the long term. Narrative in the West and the ROW are quite different too.
5- Unmatched Intelligence. Satellites and 5 Eyes. No Match. L
This is the big trump card right now. BRICS are constantly surprised, just like MoA readers.
There are a lot of cards being played now that took decades to prepare. US is unmatched in strategic preparation.
6- Color Revolutions and NGO networks. No Match.
The world is wisening up to these, I doubt this trick can be played so many more times. Georgia and Russia demonstrated viable countermoves.
The Russian retreat looks to me like consolidation, instead of trying to fight every battle especially on shaky ground, the East better consolidates around reliable partners with common goals. If this leads to imperial overreach and hubris, all the better. This is not a chess endgame or even an offensive drive, this is laying patient groundwork and locking the West into unsustainable structures. Eastern thought sees unipolarity as unsustainable and antisocial. The best way to deal with a bully is to shun him, best to apply passive strategies against open agression.
In large scale geopolitics, a core defensible cultural and military border would be Belarus, Romania, Bulgaria, Caucasus, Iran, Pakiastan, India, continental South Asia, China. Turkey is questionable, so is the Levante. If Iran/Caucasus is a secure border, what use is the Mediterranean and Tartus, this is not the 1850s any more where Navies were deciding the world.
If I were Russia I would try to win Egypt, Arabia and Malaysia or win soft power uniting/mediating Muslim interests. Watch BRICS for those success stories, not the battlefields. Stabilize around the multipolar centers before getting entangled in any proxy war and failed state. Why play the games USA is best at?
Once the AIPAC region hs more contiguous borders strategy may shift, this ensures parity to the US having all of North America.
EU is not secure and needs to be tipped – long term project.
It is also not the time to tip their hand – US is too belligerent nd needs to be bled a lot more before the East can act to remove force projection. The East also prefers to remove threats by making them useless/detrimental, not by openly attacking them. Don’t wrestle wit a pig, gets you dirty and the pig may like it.
We are mostly trying to understand from a far too individualist, zero-sum, western aggressive mindset.

Posted by: SOS | Dec 8 2024 13:41 utc | 171

170 – I feared it would turn out like this after Aleppo went. Syria was starting to look like South Vietnam in 1975, when cities fell surprisingly quickly, like books falling off a slanted bookshelf. There was sporadic resistance from an army that still had lots of US munitions, but too many people hoping for a US intervention that never happened. The USA was cutting its losses. Like I suspect Russia and Iran have done.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 8 2024 13:41 utc | 172

@93….. China is way more risk averse than Iran and Russia. China has yet to make the decision to get involved militarily – anywhere for that matter. China will likely commit to defending Taiwan. But here is the catch – if China thinks it can sit this out and not make any sacrifices for a better world than this repugnant system of the colonial West, then they are deluding themselves. The US will bring war to China on its own terms – its inevitable. China should be doing more heavy lifting to help its allies. If Russia and Iran fall, China is next. China can turn any war around with its tremendous resources – it just chooses not to do so. China cannot always sit and do nothing militarily while leaving the fighting only for Russia or Iran. The West are remorseless and ruthless, this gives them an edge. You cannot fight barbarians who fight to the death, while being fully civilized.

Posted by: USSA Empire Of Lies | Dec 8 2024 13:45 utc | 173

@Ghost of Zanon

that is an interesting theory. Assad wasn’t heard from or seen for a long time, IIRC. If the rent-a-mob had prior knowledge that he was already dead, that would give them the confidence to march unopposed.
This is my last post for a while. These events are too huge to process right now. I would recommend that everyone keep a “scorecard” of all the pundits out there – Simplicius, Dima, Ritter, etc. Compare their statements over the past week with the emerging reality. Then you’ll know who to ignore from now on.

I was following the Syrian War from 2013 to around 2018. Assad was alway very active travelling around to visit places in Syria and often on TV and giving Interviews.
Now he just went silent and run away without any message to his Counry?
The SAA did fight for 12 years against all odds and now they are just a corrupt bunch? They have been ordered to stand down. The whole they will goat HTS into a trap was just a lie from the start they have never been ordered to show any meaningfull resistance.
What a nice thing from Russia and Iran. Look they dont wanna fight (because you ordered them to stand down). What a sad circus.
Russia and Iran are compromised too. Iran and Hezbollah leaders might be run now be Western Assets (they said they gonna killed all Hezbollah leaders until they put one of their guys up).
All the Mercouris and other “Experts” comments are just shifting the blame to Assad and the SAA.
What happens now just shows what a Clown World we have now. Al-Quaeda is now marching through Syria and they are divers and freedom loving guys.
Uncle Putin, China and the other puppets are standing by and playing along, wow 🙂

Posted by: TheWatcher | Dec 8 2024 13:47 utc | 174

“In the long term, the US/NATO/Israel group may discover that owning Lebanon and Syria is unpleasant and expensive. Just as it was for the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. Like the old story of Br’er Rabbit and the Tar Baby.”
Posted by: Clever Dog | Dec 8 2024 13:31 utc | 168
Good analysis-I would add Vietnam to that list.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 13:48 utc | 175

So do we get turkey vs usa now? Hts will have the same problems assad did without that oil.

Posted by: Feck | Dec 8 2024 13:50 utc | 176

On a side note, when I visited Syria, the restaurant next to the Crac des Cavaliers castle was ruled by a big funny transvestite [snip]
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 13:33 utc | 170
______
This really isn’t a good time to be provoking sympathy on this site for the headchoppers.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 8 2024 13:50 utc | 177

I have said above that I have travelled through the whole Middle Eastm except Irak and Lybia…
Well, add to that exceptions the petromonarchies of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, which I had never had the wish to visit, since there was no civilization remains there, except the same glass high rising buildings one can find in any financial district in the Whole world…of no interest to me…
Syria will be, reggretably for humaity and tis memory and heritage, turned into another of these Singapores of the Middle East, where only financial districts flourish while the rest languishes, and the humble people is exploited to death at work, as I was told happens with the yemenis and other foreign workers in Saudi Arabia….
The only country of ancient civilization and heritage who remains free, and whose people remain human, in its wide meaning of the word, is Yemen….and Iran…but, will they survive the last lashes of the decaying hegemon?
Russia and China will be obliged to get inside themselves, probably isolated from each other…commerce will not flourish in a world like that….
Everybody will lose….except the “rules based order”….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 13:53 utc | 178

Anyway, I will now answer b. directly.
“Throughout the last months Syria’s allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad.”
I have no words.

Posted by: Tichy | Dec 8 2024 13:57 utc | 180

Iranian liberal people should think twice and wait and see what happens with Syria and what she is turned into before calling for the “liberators of the world” to come and take over Iran as they did with Syria…
They probably would not like the result as we are not liking in Europe when the time of extrem greed and thin cows has come for the Hegemon…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 13:58 utc | 181

It is indeed weird the situation around Assad. Not a single press conference since the incursion started, no message to the nation after he allegedly left? Basically a person that until now, didn’t show any signs that he is despised by the majority of the Syrian population.
Maybe we will never know the actual truth of what happened to him. I don’t want to believe that he was on the plane that every blogger speaks today. It also doesn’t make any sense. So maybe there is a possibility that he either left Syria some time ago or he was already dead before this incursion from the Turkish backed militias started which might explain the complete collapse from the army.

Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 8 2024 13:58 utc | 182

EoinW 151
Point taken.
“As morally questionable as the Anglo-American Empires have been, they have provided their people with the highest standard of living and the most freedom ever.”
When you have more money you have freedom to spend it on optional choices other than food. “Freedom” tagged rhetorically to “democracy” has never meant anything more than this. Empires are never democratic (check out Romania’s “election”) and freedom thereof is only an economic one for the wealthy minority. An entire edifice of lies.
That’s what empires do. Extract tribute.
Britain spectacularly enriched themselves from India.
This did not benefit India of course – their enduring backwardness is legacy of the British Raj.
The USA with the postwar Breton Woods accords set up the entire global economy to serve and enrich them. Making the U.S. dollar the “reserve currency” expands the U.S. economy to the world, and makes the world liable to U.S. debt. Thus indeed the “wealth of the nations has flowed” to the U.S. in biblical fashion.
Multipolarity and BRICS threatens all this of course. Hence the hysterical response of Trump’s regime. But Russia and China are right – true multiparty and respect of nations’ sovereignty will be far more beneficial to the world than false pretences of altruism by a parasitic empire of lies.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 8 2024 14:00 utc | 183

@Posted by: malenkov | Dec 8 2024 13:50 utc | 177
In what way I am provoking suhc thing?
I posted that as a proof of tolerance by the so called “Assad regime”….and the obvious contradictions of the US ideology…
May be you did not understood my comment..reread, please…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 14:01 utc | 184

LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2024 11:54 utc | 69
“It goes Gaza -> Lebanon -> Syria -> Iran -> Russia -> China … Trump will climb onboard the winning strategy …”
Isn’t it a bit early to blame Trump already? It was expected that the US Democrats after losing big, and even bigger in Ukraine, will try to bring this world to the brink of collapse and try everything in their power to hurt Russia as much as possible. At the same time there is an (Ukraine 2014) Maidan V2.0 in Georgia taking place. Now that the war in Ukraine is lost (simply coz they ran out of soldiers, approx. 1m dead (yes, dead not wounded)), they bring the war to the periphery.
As for Syria: if a state can be overthrown so easily, because it is surrounded by greedy, big powers, who have weakened it for years now, then it’s maybe better to end it with a short shock than to prolong the agony. If the country is being allowed to exist longer and not becomes a complete artificial product of USA, Israel, Turkey, then this new alien ruling power will not last long. It can only rule by terror and won’t be accepted by any Syrian people.

Posted by: cortomaltese | Dec 8 2024 14:02 utc | 185

grunzt @ 74

With Assad removed from the chessboard, countries like Lebanon and Jordan will, most likely, cease to exist, giving Israel and the US plenty of room to rearrange the ME according to their wishes, and implement their plans for a greater Israel.

I din’t consider Jordan till now, but it’s not a genocide unless it’s comprehensive and boundless, and it is most certainly a genocide. One step at a time, but they will move onto Jordan.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2024 14:03 utc | 186

Assad left Syria, ordered peaceful transfer of power: Lavrov
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow did not participate in power transfer talks in Syria and expressed concern over developments, emphasizing that Russian military bases there are on high alert.”
— Al Mayadeen
here

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2024 14:05 utc | 187

@Posted by: JamesBond | Dec 8 2024 13:58 utc | 182
The army betrayed him obviously…and seeing that he had not the army behind, had no guts to place himself before the nation…
This family has suffered enough, everybody has its limit, after the so much he and his family have fought, he probably did not found the strenght to adress the nation, he looks like a very sensitive person, its obvious in his eyes…
These are not times for sensitive people….no doubt…
Wondering what will happen to his praetorians….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 14:06 utc | 188

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8h8jsktvHwc
The outlines of a multipolar world are coming into view.
The Axis of Resistance is over, with the China brokered Iran/Saudi deal.
The Gulf/Turkey Axis asserts control over the lands of Sunni Islam.
A gas pipeline will be connected from the Persian Gulf through SA, Syria, and Turkey on to Europe.
Israel will be contained by the realities of a centralized Sunni Axis.
The US Empire will leave the Middle East as a condition of a multipolar world order.
The terrorist groups are insignificant actors, soon replaced by Turkish forces and Gulf Money.
Peace and prosperity will return to these lands for the first time in a century.

Posted by: jpb | Dec 8 2024 14:07 utc | 189

@ Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 14:01 utc | 184
You’re unaware of the white-hot loathing of transsexuality on this site? honestly?

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 8 2024 14:07 utc | 190

“On a side note, when I visited Syria, the restaurant next to the Crac des Cavaliers castle was ruled by a big funny transvestite [snip]”
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 13:33 utc | 170
I was at Crac de Cavaliers in 2010. We, my buddy and his Mom, had been staying in a western hotel in Aleppo but once we got to the countryside, no alcohol; geez!!
Walking around the castle’s ground I and my buddy were very, very thirsty. I went up to the pinnacle of the castle with a hunch, and yes, there was a well stocked bar.
We drank there (bourbon, beer chasers) for a couple of hours till my buddy’s Mom, a non drinker, chased us out of there.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 14:13 utc | 191

@Posted by: malenkov | Dec 8 2024 14:07 utc | 190
Not, I am not aware of that, since, as you probably have noticed, I do not post here except from time to time that I find the time or the events are worth doing it…that usually happens on weekends…
The more I am not in favor of the promotion of LGTBQ+ policies and sex change, we can not deny such people exists, and i have nothing against such kind of people, whenever they are amke a living as the rest of us and are not unjustly privileged as minosirites over us…
The guy ruled that place in a such a commercial and active way, worrying a lot that we did nit leave with hunger, something important in restaurnats, while serving us with such goog humour and temper, something so difficult to find here, where waiters, generally, seem to be making you a favour instead…
Are you Russian, by your name, and thus, what you found really provoking is that I am criticizing Russia for this development of events in Syria?
Look, I have not the time to discuss here, only wanted to give my testimony and homage to the Assad family and Syrian people…Sorry if this you do not like….
I am not a rich person, and I was treated there as if I was one of them…they are warm, close, extremely helpful and caring people who had a very prosperous functioning, inclusive country…I will not tire of saying for the years to come….
I also met Christians in old Damascus city and they looked happy and accomplished…we happened to be invited to an exposition they had there and left even with a present…those Christian women were dressing in tank tops, as it was September and was very hot weather…
I, on the contrary, out of lack of knowledge of Syrian reality before travelling, opted for long sleeve light shirts and long trousers…which is the best for hot places…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 14:34 utc | 192

Ghost of Mozgovoy @ 188

Wondering what will happen to his praetorians….

They’ll do what the pragmatic German military, Nazi or otherwise, did at the end of WW2, they’ll trade knowledge and skill for a place in the new order. No honor among thieves, that’s another thing bribes are for, determining those without honor you “can count on”. There seems to be a lot of people in the praetorians the west can count on.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2024 14:40 utc | 193

8 october 2023 : ‘We are going to change(reshape) the Middle East,’ says Israeli premier
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/we-are-going-to-change-the-middle-east-says-israeli-premier/3012947
And, of course, Israel was and is not alone in the task.
When an event of this magnitude occurs, the comments on MoA are often in black and white.
There are the “experts in geo-strategy” who will regret that “that chicken Putin” has not yet nuke the US and Europe and such,
and those, just as finely inspired, who will see it as an intelligent maneuver by the Russians to let the West manage the quagmire and bring troops back to Ukraine.
Fortunately there are also some who propose relevant additions to B’s analysis, generally those who have understood that reality is neither black nor white but desperately gray.

Posted by: Tak-Tik | Dec 8 2024 14:42 utc | 194

cortomaltese @ 185

Isn’t it a bit early to blame Trump already?

On Jan. 20 Trump will cross the finish line, but if you’ve been watching carefully, the baton has already been passed.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2024 14:45 utc | 195

@Arch Bungle | Dec 8 2024 12:25 utc, who said:

The collapse of Syria is not final and doesn’t exclude the re-emergence of a sovereign Syrian state not aligned with the West.

========
Recognize that Syria, like many mid-East nations, is a tribal society.
Assad’s tribe is the Alawites. Alawites are 15% of Syrian population, and yet controlled and benefited from a great deal of Syria’s wealth. That is a fact, and it might resonate with many Barflies who object to “oligarchs” controlling the wealth and politics of the West.
Assad’s fall happened because the rest of the country was fed up with him. Russia, Iran and China all recognize that their “man” in Syria’s time was at an end, and they weren’t backing the right horse.
The rapid “collapse” of Assad’s regime has a lot in common with the rapid “collapse” of the U.S.-supported Afghanistan regime. No one supported Assad because they wanted him and his Alawite cabal gone.
What will the new Syrian regime be and do?
The civil strife in Syria _may_ just be beginning; there’s a lot of paybacks to be meted out. And there are a number of factions that have long-standing interests and the power to influence events; Sunnis and Kurds come to mind, there are others.
Al-Julani has a lot of deal-making to do; his coalition stays together only so long as he makes the right deals, and that won’t be easy to do. Syria was a “nation” of provinces each of which have rather different politics.
It’s possible – maybe even likely – that Syria ends up like the former Yugoslavia, broken along sectarian lines into a set of new countries, after some bitter warfare.
Yes, there may well have been payoffs, bribes, and so forth that both accelerated the collapse, and laid the groundwork for future deals. But none of that would have worked if the society wasn’t so thoroughly fractured.
What I find most interesting is the “hands-off” approach of both Iran and Russia.
It’s inconceivable that they weren’t well-aware of the lack of internal support for Assad, and that his days were numbered, and that there was little they could do to prevent that fall.
Now their foothold – in Syria – is up for grabs, and they have to take their chances on a period of instability in order to re-build a new relationship with the Syrian society.
They could not have prevented Assad’s fall. That was baked in the cake, given the politics of sectarian strife.
I think that’s why they didn’t elect to mount a vigorous effort to support Assad. The more support they offer for Assad, the less support they’ll get from Assad’s successor regime. Pick your poison.
Gotta know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 8 2024 14:48 utc | 196

176 – Erdoğan has always been a US collaborator. Expats from his country assure me that his anti-Israeli noises are for show. I am inclined to think the coup attempt of 2016 was a fake designed to strengthen his power, but even if it was for real (and he blamed the USA at the time) he would have seen it as a warning not to step outside of Washington’s diktat.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 8 2024 14:52 utc | 197

@ Posted by: SOS | Dec 8 2024 13:41 utc | 171
‘what use is the Mediterranean and Tartus, this is not the 1850s any more where Navies were deciding the world.’
I can tell you what use they are. Nearly all of Russia’s trade is done by sea. Bit of an issue when you only are allied to (mostly) landlocked countries like the ones you listed, and have been not only locked out of the Med now, but can’t even keep your Black Sea fleet in Crimea for fear of it being sunk.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 8 2024 14:54 utc | 198

@Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2024 14:13 utc | 191
Are you aware that alcohol do not saciate your thirst but provoke even more, canuck?
Glad that you got to meet the free Syria, that jewel of the Mediterranean about to be totally dismantled,…I visited some few years earlier than you, but I will not give the exact date for obvious security reasons…
You should have also met the yemenis of the good times…you, simply, did not want to leave…and it was already one of the poorest places I have visted..but, mate, that brotherhood, so human, is worth experimenting even above the opportunity to eat thrice a day…
I lost some weight there, but, now I think, lose my heart there too…life and the world did never be the same…
I passed the next months once back at home hearing the love lamenting tunes of Mohammad Al-Harithi… when driving…which transported me to Yemen and its people again for some minutes…Ahh, such memories…!
https://youtu.be/CX3Kc1MRFsA?feature=shared
Call me arabophile if you want…love these peoples….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Dec 8 2024 14:55 utc | 199

Next target: Iraq!
Iraq will likely fall to the headchoppers just as fast as Syria did.
Iran best be fortifying the border.
I don’t bother mentioning Lebanon because that is already a done deal.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 8 2024 14:57 utc | 200