Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 13, 2024
Russia Retaliates For ATACMS Strike – Improves Trolling

Those who were waiting for another Oreshnik strike, in response to the U.S. ATACMS attack on a strategic air plane factory in the Russian city of Taganrog, will be disappointed by this:

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On 11 December 2024, from the from the territory of Ukraine the AFU delivered a strike by six U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the military airfield near Taganrog.

In response to the use of U.S.-made long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces delivered mass strikes by high-precision air- and sea-based weapons and attack drones at Ukrainian fuel and power infrastructure facilities ensuring operation of the defence industry.

The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.

The 'response' has been successful. There is then no additional need to follow up with another Oreshnik strike.

Ukraine has confirmed the success of the strike:

Russia deals 'massive blow' to Ukraine's thermal power plants, energy company says

Russia targeted DTEK's thermal power plants during a mass aerial attack on Dec. 13, damaging their equipment, the company said in a statement.

Moscow's forces launched around 90 missiles and 200 drones in one of its largest mass attacks on Ukraine's power grid as the winter is setting in.

"DTEK thermal power plants were attacked. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties," the company said. The plants' equipment was "seriously damaged," with energy sector employees already working on repairs.

Interestingly the strikes hit mostly in west-Ukraine where electricity and gas from the EU is imported into Ukraine (machine translation):

There is serious damage. According to our source on the energy market, the Burshtyn and Prydniprovska TPPs were damaged (which DTEK indirectly confirmed by reporting equipment damage at one of its thermal power plants), key substations in Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and other regions, and power lines throughout the country.

Ukrenergo has already announced tougher light restrictions. According to the current situation, there are currently three out of six outage queues. "This means that half the country is without electricity," says energy market expert Oleg Popenko. In Odessa, additional restrictions were introduced. "The situation there is very serious, people will sit for some time without electricity for 7-11 hours," Popenko said.

But the risks have increased not only in electricity, but also in gas and heating, as the Russian Federation has again hit the gas infrastructure.

"If there are interruptions in gas supply, the situation with electricity (since TPP and CHPP operate on gas) and heating will sharply worsen. At minus 10 degrees, which meteorologists promise us for a day, the average panel can stand without heating for 36-40 hours, then the system will need to be completely repaired. That is, high-rise buildings can become uninhabitable," says Popenko.

Ukraine had to lower the output of 5 of its 9 nuclear power plants as some relevant substations got it. The unified electricity system of the country is falling apart into islands of generation and consumption. Areas with little generation capacity and high consumption (Odessa) will have the biggest problems.


In comments 'Drifter' mentions a Russian quip about North Korean soldiers in Russia:

Telegram post from 12 hours ago – Yandex machine translation from Russian. Voenkor Kotenok posted the first report (I have found) suggesting actual (limited) use of elite Korean special forces in Kursk a week ago.

Military commander Kotenok

Plekhovo, which was liberated on December 6 in the Kursk direction, was indeed taken by Korean SSR fighters. We passed 2 kilometers through a minefield, broke into the settlement with lightning speed and destroyed the occupation contingent of the ukrovermakht. The operation took about 2.5 hours. They took their "200" and "300" with them.

According to some information, there were no prisoners. They will not take it in the future.

@voenkorKotenok

Nice trolling I'd say, with -of course- zero evidence.

Funny how some people are falling for it.

Comments

This time drones are over Ramstein base in Germany
That’s a good place for them, I’ve been to Jersey, ain’t shit in Jersey.
They are stressing the sheeple, they are going to sour the milk, they must want that too.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 9:38 utc | 303
.
.
.
The frog (people) is sitting in the pot and is being cooked towards war…
At least that is what the elites in Germany are trying to do!
With a few exceptions, NO “leader” in Germany is able to bring the youth or even the elderly into the war against Russia.
But they can escalate even if Russia responds with hazelnut fire….the MOB in Germany has long understood that this WILL NOT BE THEIR WAR

Posted by: ossi | Dec 14 2024 9:50 utc | 301

Hmm, you know how it’s dandy that USA/Israel/Turkiye threw open all the Syrian jails and freed all Assad’s prisoners? Maybe Russia should Oreshnik USA military bases in Germany and free all the Germans?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 9:56 utc | 302

@Preki | Dec 14 2024 0:56 utc | 227
That is pretty much it, yes.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:01 utc | 303

@ De Salsa | Dec 14 2024 0:38 utc | 218
Go back to Facebook, this audience is actually aware of transpired events. Or be more like vargas.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 14 2024 10:08 utc | 304

Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 14 2024 4:52 utc | 278
——————
He said that he reserves the right to strike in Ukraine and outside.
He didn’t say he would do it to please you.

Posted by: scc | Dec 14 2024 10:12 utc | 305

The amusing thing about the deluge of trollery is that, assuming MoA is a choice target for the LLM’s, those sweeps of barely coherent word salads from the Usual Suspects are going to reinforce the delusions of the PTB. Nice……

Posted by: Waynad | Dec 14 2024 10:13 utc | 306

Posted by: ossi | Dec 14 2024 9:50 utc | 306
Ich wäre sehr, sehr vorsichtig mit dem Gebrauch des Wortes “Mob”, das ist Pseudo-Eliten Geschwätz…Das solltest Du als als Ossi eigentlich wissen…Selbst der Begriff Masse ist sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen…”Ornament der Masse”, “Psychologie der Massen” etc. und dieser ganze Schwachsinn.

Posted by: Larsbo | Dec 14 2024 10:16 utc | 307

@nwwoods | Dec 14 2024 1:59 utc | 251

Are we aware that -12 means -12 Celsius? In other words 14F, 18 degrees below freezing. This is not moderately cold. It is COLD!
My weather app says it’s -10C in Kiev at this moment.

You should be aware because that is what I said when I posted it. Even if redundant in Europe, I specifically said -12C so that even americans would get it. But no.
NOBODY uses the antique US system of measurements in Europe, especially not temperatures. One of the effects of losing this war and its hegemony is that the US must adapt to the rest of the world and use the SI system of units.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_System_of_Units

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:19 utc | 308

@Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc | 198

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik.

Oreshnik is a deterrent. Its capability has been demonstrated. Its usefulness is to deter. If it doesn’t work it might be used as a detergent.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:28 utc | 309

Philly | Dec 14 2024 3:58 utc | 270
…if Down South got banned, or simply left for his own reasons?
Observing what b tolerates @bar, IMVHO there’s no way Down South was banned. He (and the @bar) complied with b’s request to only post daily an update.
Down South was highly valued for his posts and contributed to the collective commons here.
I have no idea why he isn’t posting. But I cannot accept that he was banned.
~~~
Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 4:44 utc | 277
Has anyone here read “The Art of the Deal”
Yes. I procured a paperback copy at a second hand bookstore for 50c in 2015 when noises were being made that some reality tv/ NYC realestate tycoon might run for president.
I don’t remember much of what I read, but I do recall forming the opinion that this guy, whoever he was (I don’t do reality tv and was blissfully ignorant of “Trump”.) whoever this guy was, he was an arsehole, and I was surprised he’d allowed a ghost writer to publish such tosh as an authorised version of events.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 10:28 utc | 310

Guess drones are becoming the ultimative tool of asymmetrical conflicts now. Illustrating Ramstein drones with a C5 or C17 landing is outright funny, those babies are crazy expensive and impossible to protect on a Germany bases airbase. Some RC plane can take them down during landing and these are basically irreplaceable. Without those 100-200 planes US empire would be over.
This is not even counting the denial effect and risk aversion after the first strike, the cost of setting up a new series production or the snarled time lines of replacement. So man White Elephant in the room.
Doesn’t even have to be Germany, these are flying over Syria too.

Posted by: SOS | Dec 14 2024 10:29 utc | 311

@Passerby | Dec 14 2024 7:16 utc | 288

Back in 2022, there were Ukrainian flags everywhere in Europe, and many wanted to help Ukrainian refugees. Today, it is difficult to see even one Ukrainian flag. And refugees – opinion seems mixed.

Every year in May (I missed it this year) I meet with some old friends and their wives. In 2022 we talked about what was going on in Ukraine, and I said the war began in 2014 with the US coup and now the Russians are understandably intervening with the SMO and there is a 100% chance they will win it. Some of them (not all) looked at me like I was some kind of alien evil. I am looking forward to the coming May.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:42 utc | 312

@Jzo | Dec 14 2024 7:53 utc | 291

Since Russian Federation didnt launch another Oreshnik to the newest provocation as the west assholes expected, they (the west) have now successfully tested the Mighty Dark Eagle rocket as their response to the now not so mighty Oreshnik.

Stage 1 was to goad the Russians onto launching again so the US could study it. Never mind if some more Ukrainians died. The Russians didn’t launch.
Stage 2 was “Oh, I don’t think the Oreshnik is that useful after all”, and “it is not useful if you don’t use it”. Etc.
Stage 3 is “We have an equivalent to the useless Oreshnik. It has not been demonstrated, but surely you believe us.”

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:48 utc | 313

Ripples …
Norway Wants to Scrap EU Power Links amid Surging Prices
By Charles Kennedy – Dec 12, 2024, 10:30 AM CST
{…] The Progress party, a right-wing party, which is currently predicted to crush the Labour party in the election, is also seeking to cut off the Denmark interconnection and to renegotiate the power exchange agreements with the UK, as well as with EU member Germany. This would ease what politicians told FT “the price infection” that Norway catches from the EU.
Case in point: electricity rates in Norway hit record-highs this week, despite full hydro reservoirs and no cold snap, per the Norwegian standards of a ‘cold snap’. The electricity generated in Norway was needed in Germany and Denmark where low wind speeds tightened power supply margins and sent power prices spiking again.
As summed up by Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland for FT,
“It’s an absolutely shit situation.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Wants-to-Scrap-EU-Power-Links-amid-Surging-Prices.html

Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 14 2024 10:48 utc | 314

The reason Russia didn’t conduct another Oreshnik strike is because they don’t have any. Putin gave the order to start production but getting operational assets could take months to years

Posted by: ShatGPT | Dec 14 2024 10:49 utc | 315

@retroflecks | Dec 14 2024 8:14 utc | 293
Something like that could indeed happen. Remember JFK,RFK assassinations and 911.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:51 utc | 316

https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR3816/38582f56
KC2 tanker from Brize Norton just arrived at Rzeszow.
Quite a bit of traffic with transponders off has been arriving at USAF Fairford in the pre-dawn hours over the last couple of months. I assumed it was for Ukraine, but it may have been for Syria.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 14 2024 11:05 utc | 317

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 19:03 utc | 95
you are not the first to lament the lack of capitalization. I too am quite guilty of doing so. I would like to explain how this came about.
Many years ago I was introduced to Unix and one of the very first things you learn is to log into the system using all lower case. It might accept your login even in upper case but then you would get weird responses on the screen and you were pretty much forced to log out and start over.
I quite enjoyed being freed from having to capitalize and I can see that it would be even more appealing to Germans who have to do a lot of it. I suppose I thought it was cool too.
what bothers me is the confusion between lose and loose as well as all the versions of there, they’re, and their. but it is not something I feel the need to scold for.

Posted by: dan of steele | Dec 14 2024 11:06 utc | 318

@Don Firineach | Dec 14 2024 10:48 utc | 319
We had -10C in South Eastern Norway the other day. It is cold for December but not too unusual. January and February will likely be much colder in periods.
Obviously, the media are not mentioning the elephant in the room, the NATO war in Ukraine which is causing the current crisis (EU having to export to Ukraine and compensate by importing from Norway) on top of the other insanity like the fake “climate crisis” and the fact that control over our energy sources has been handed over to private speculants.
We have mountains and a lot of rain, hence hydroelectric power. This is a natural resource that belongs to the nation. We have been forced to heat our homes with electricity. It is now illegal to heat a home with traditional heating oil (you can still do it by burning food or “bio fuel”, but most people believe that is illegal as well). At the same time they (the Quslings) built cables to Denmark to export electricity and profit from that, which obviously increased prices locally, a double win. Now it is a 10x win. I am hoping that this shock will teach enough people to actually cut those cables. But I am not holding my breath.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 11:13 utc | 319

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 10:28 utc | 315
Ta. I’ve sinced watched this excoriating talk by the actual ghost writer, Tony Schwartz: The Truth About Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxF_CDDJ0YI
— who now has severe TDS!!! Eye opening insider info about the narcisistic, vacuous orange man. Schwartz is now suffering terribly, feeling partly responsible for Trump getting elected in 2016, and now double-traumatised that Trump’s got in again. Lol.
I was completely wrong to imagine that Trump actually had any legitimate skills in corporate negotiation. Apparently it is ALL LIES. Meaning… that he might well fool a fool like Zelensky, but no way will he ever fool Putin to get his way. The trouble is that, as a master narrative controller, he has the GOP hawks on side, which means he may well be able to enact much trouble for Russia *IF HE DOESN’T* get his way.
But who truly knows what Trump v2 will be like.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 11:14 utc | 320

Hoarsewhisperer @ 198 / Norwegian @ 314
I think we can agree there are no nuclear worthy targets in Ukraine, and why a nuke won’t be used there. Unless of course it’s a wanton act of vengeance by Russia, not their style, or a message delivered in the only “safe” place, which is actually Ukraine, a place the west doesn’t give a shit about, like the Oreshnik was used. I believe nukes will be used to deliver results not messages.
For myself the Oreshnik strike in Dnipropetrovsk was solely a message, I doubt there was anything worthwhile below ground there, sending the same message twice would be feeble. Maybe there’s a high value NATO target, with the command all grouped up, somewhere still inside Ukraine, but military level secure Zoom meetings on Starlink can handle all that.
I think if an Oreshnik is used next it will against NATO outside Ukraine, I think that was the message, but maybe it was a message to Kiev that Russia is ready to get medieval on their ass, I have no idea of the frustration level in the Kremlin. Whatever, the next Oreshnik won’t be on an abandoned industrial area, this time it’ll be ugly, and that’s why the Russians are holding back. The west is always ready for ugly, the Russians are not.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 11:17 utc | 321

I see we have a number of couch generals gathered here again who would like to start World War III. Good thing they’re on the couch and not somewhere where they can make a difference.

Posted by: Hestroy | Dec 14 2024 11:18 utc | 322

Did several barflies post “narrative control” across multiple threads ?
Well. The U$ now has hypersonic weapons.
No need to bother with pesky R-D; time wasting testing.Manufacturing.
The easiest and simplest and cheapest way to acquire hypersonics is to simply say you have them.
Job done.
High Alert In Russia After U.S. Missile Shocker | ‘American Hypersonic Weapon Can Hit Putin’

The Russia-Ukraine war takes a new turn as the U.S. ramps up its missile deployment efforts in Europe and Asia, including hypersonic weapons. The U.S. has intensified the production and deployment of intermediate and short-range missiles, including the Dark Typhon rocket system, which is expected to be operational by 2025 and will be stationed in Wiesbaden, Germany.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdkZjKThtQs
I’m not wasting the 5mins to watch this, but here’s the link for those that want it.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 11:26 utc | 323

Englishman in NY @ 325
Trump v2 is under control of the GOP, that was the deal this time, no more rouge elephant. I’ve no idea what the deal was, my guess, justified vengeance against all those that didn’t play by Marquee of Queensbury rules and a chance to clear, or unclown, his name in history, at least USA school book history. Along the way Trump picked up fellow mistreated and slandered and looking for vengeance RFKjr and Tulsi to join the party. Good for all of them, I’m big on Marquee of Queensbury rules.
For the rest, it’ll be a mindless, vicious GOP-Trump mash up shit show like the world has never seen.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 11:28 utc | 324

ShatGPT | Dec 14 2024 10:49 utc | 320
The reason Russia didn’t conduct another Oreshnik strike is because they don’t have any
One of the many reasons I appreciate this @bar, is we have contributions from such a wide ranging cohort of experience and expertise.
And here, we seem to have a post from someone directly connected to the Russian MoD.
Aren’t we a lucky lot of barflies.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 11:32 utc | 325

Don’t want to go all Tony Offtopic, but we are 300+ posts in, and all the talk of -12c is making me a tidge envious.
Not to upset anyone’s digestion, but I’m lying in bed totally naked with every window and door wide open, and the bedroom and hall floor fans on high.
It’s not unseasonably hot, but I’m sweltering. It’s past 10pm.
A short blast of -12c appeals temporarily ATM.
*short blast. + Temporary.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 11:41 utc | 326

The reason Russia didn’t conduct another Oreshnik strike is because they don’t have any. Putin gave the order to start production but getting operational assets could take months to years
Posted by: ShatGPT | Dec 14 2024 10:49 utc | 320
.
.
:
Oops
Please tell us your sources, or are they so secret that you don’t know them yourself…
Or do you regularly go to the Kremlin for tea?

Posted by: ossi | Dec 14 2024 11:46 utc | 327

331 – Not to upset anyone’s digestion, but I’m lying in bed totally naked with every window and door wide open, and the bedroom and hall floor fans on high.
Do you have appropriate companionship? It sounds like you dwell in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is currently summer.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 14 2024 12:30 utc | 328

Ukropia is done, like a hog on a spit.
Stick a fork in it.
Just like ‘Syria’ has been erased.
So it will goes as well.
Both were mutations created by the never ending Great Gamers.
Over a hundred years.
The shapeshifters Bolsheviks – Lenin started handing over the Crimea and recreating the Khazar Empire with that expanding ukraine, as decades did later Kruschev!
Stalin dd his bit too, after Yalta. Always a mystery never directly explained – but Putin did allude to it when he gave CIA Tucker that history lesson.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 14 2024 12:46 utc | 329

Ha detto che si riserva il diritto di scioperare in Ucraina e all’estero.
Non ha detto che lo avrebbe fatto per compiacerti.
Pubblicato da: scc | 14 dic 2024 10:12 utc | 310
yes yes, of course!
promising and keeping is for fearful people,
and Putin is extremely courageous, so he is careful not to keep his threats, otherwise the enemy could be upset.

Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 14 2024 13:11 utc | 330

As summed up by Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland for FT, “It’s an absolutely shit situation.”
Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 14 2024 10:48 utc | 319
You are talking about the energy situation. In good times, joining electric grids may result in more stable, cheaper energy. In bad times, when the grid fails, it means the neighbor’s problems become your problems too.
The same can be said about defense. In peace time, NATO increases security. But in war time, NATO drags peaceful countries along to war. And just like countries contemplate cutting the link to the European grid because of price instability, countries will contemplate getting out of NATO, to stay out of war.
A couple of days ago six NATO countries – UK, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, and Spain – declared “Ukraine must prevail”. And what if Ukraine does not prevail – what do we do then? Do we mobilize and go to war? Will all 32 NATO countries allow those six to drag us along?

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 14 2024 13:21 utc | 331

I guess the “Russia has no missiles left” was getting a bit stale and clearly BS, so;
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/10/war-tanks-running-out-russia-faces-alarming-shortage-by-2025/
Some of the claims are stunningly obvious projection.
Then there is this;
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/12/s-400-s-500-no-match-for-u-s-dark-eagles-hypersonic-speed/
It’s funny. Claims made in the article are seriously at odds with the BS that is claimed in Ukraine. Lots of hypersonics claimed to be shot down by ‘current’ (pre-21st century design) Western tech, but Russia can’t do it?
Never the truth when a lie will do? Could probably just be trimmed to “never the truth”.

Posted by: saner | Dec 14 2024 13:22 utc | 332

…so he is careful not to keep his threats…
Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 14 2024 13:11 utc | 335

Can you please provide any quotation of Putin’s threats? Like, where and what did he said, verbatim, so that everyone would know, what you mean, saying “threats”? Quotes, please – date and his own (not yours) words?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Dec 14 2024 13:30 utc | 333

> The forces behind the attacks into Russia care nothing for Ukrainian lives and well-being. Yes, it may be one step closer to victory. The problem though is that the real antagonist, the instigator of this ‘war on Russia’ will likely be emboldened…
> Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Dec 13 2024 23:42 utc | 203
Well, well, well.
Saying so you imply that the instigator of this ‘war on Russia’ somehow for some mystique reason does care a thing for Polish/German/French/British/American lives and well-being
My, my… Do you really believe it? Because i totally cannot see it.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 13:36 utc | 334

I see. Those very same people from the Ukraine are problem anywhere else, but a gift sent from heaven in russia. Because russia needs bodies. To be raped? At least for their organs to be harvested.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 18:31 utc | 67
Did your mom have any kids that aren’t retarded?

Posted by: Screwdriver | Dec 14 2024 13:39 utc | 335

243 – About 800,000 British servicemen died in WW1. Add in Empire troops, ie. Australians, Canadians and Indians and so forth and you get something approaching a million. French dead in WW1 numbered at least two million.
In his memoirs, the writer and poet Robert Graves, who was a Royal Welch Fusiliers captain, wrote of battalions he served in being destroyed “for the nth time”. Graves survived battle wounds and then Spanish flu at war’s end and lived until 1985.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 14 2024 13:40 utc | 336

Those keeping saying Russia should murder the western “desicion makers” would sound better if they would put online some WWW page with the specific names and 24×7 GPS trackings of those
Because FFS, bidens and scholzes are as much “decision makers” as zelenskies are. Personally i think Zelensky even today is more of politician and decision makler than Scholz ever was or would be.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 13:53 utc | 337

@Philly | Dec 14 2024 13:37 utc | 339

If Oreshnik was meant to deter but has failed to do that, doesn’t that prove its current use is ineffective?

Be patient. Those it is meant to deter are slow learners.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 13:56 utc | 338

I agree, so far. There are a limited number of targets it would be worth using an Oreshnik on. That’s why I asked the Bar “what Ukraine-based targets would you use it on?”.
How many bunkers have enough industrial production, or enough high-value players concentrated in one place? How many more times will NATO concentrate people in situations appropriate to Oreshnik?
But that’s not the whole story, right? NATO and the West’s leadership has plenty of bunkers, but what’s in them? Nukes are in them, yes, but Oreshnik can be seen coming (but not stopped from coming). That’s why Russia felt it necessary to provide the 30 minute warning to the West at the point Oreshnik was fired. (so preemptive retaliatory nukes don’t get sent off).
Seems like the use for Oreshnik would be .vs. expensive, concentrated, short-term (10 mins) immobile equipment or staff.
What Oreshnik certainly does is to obsolete the defenses for a lot of NATO bases (esp. the bunker-protected equipment). Pretty much all of it’s in-range of Oreshnik, right?
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 14 2024 0:44 utc | 220
I agree that there are a limited number of military or military.industrial sites left in Ukraine to destroy. It is likely that many, probably most, are Soviet era so Russia has the plans. What has changed is that all of them are likely vulnerable, a situation that is an unwelcome surprise to NATO that they will have to plan round. Deep C&C centers being non nuke targets must be sobering.
As to Europe as a hole, excuse the pun but that is what my father called it, the smaller countries probably average around 3 each and the larger around 10, these being C&C, Intel and radar sites in the main. Probably 50 key sites and 100 non critical. Few airfields have them as it was deemed, given the perceived threat at the time i.e. none, that hardened surface bunkers were sufficient. I also exclude political and private holes.
Given that the Hazel potential production figures are ex Kiev we really have no idea what Russia’s production capacity is or even if they are repurposing sections of existing missiles.
Whilst NATO politicians may be playing the threat down I think we can be certain that the military is not.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:02 utc | 339

Most here have heard of the Soviets falling into a trap by invading Afhanistan, right (circa 1980)? I dont know if it is factually true but wasnt it Brezinski claiming he wrote to the US president saying the trap had worked, and that basically the US celebrated the Soviet invasion. Of course the US would supply the Afhans with hi-tech Stinger missiles, and we would later get alQaeda.
Ten years after the invasion, ten years mind, the USSR collapsed and many cited the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as the catalyst for that collapse.
I think that attemot at history is accurate enough to make the point.
Is this situation in Ukraine not similar, not at least similar in intent on the part of the West?
The West inst looking for a Ukrainian victory any more than it was looking for an Afghan victory over the soviets in the 80s, and it doesnt care if it takes ten or even twenty years to get results. Surely the trap has the same hopes, that it slowly but surely bit by bit wears Russia and Russians down until there is a change the West can capitalise on.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 14:09 utc | 340

I had no clue what the hell they were doing with columns advancing on so many different axes (instead of one main one, with others as diversions).
Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 14 2024 1:53 utc | 248
All part of the plan to maximise the impact whilst not allowing the Ukrainians to concentrate their forces. A plan that incidentally worked as it brought the Ukrainians to a negotiated peace agreement, accepted by both Parties, in Istanbul 3 months later.
It was the intervention of the US, via its vassal Boris, that ensured that the war continued. There is no doubt where the responsibility for 100,00s of deaths lie but they neither accept it or give a shit.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:10 utc | 341

Re: Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:59 utc | 38

You always leave your enemy a path of retreat.
“Give your enemy a golden bridge to retreat across”
-Sun Tzu
You don’t want them fighting to the death. As they become more bitter and vengeful, the more likely they are to commit an atrocity. Where nuclear powers are involved, such an atrocity could be fatal for the species.

Exactly like the Russians did in Syria 5-6 years ago. Or Debaltseve in 2014-15 for that matter.
That turned out great.
If you leave people a way out – they’ll just keep fighting you when they regroup.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 14:20 utc | 342

To: Joe911. Putin, Gorbachev 2.0. “After Putin Russia wiil be a small region around Moscow”. I propose the Estonia format, then you can make 360 countries out of the RF.

Posted by: Teraspol | Dec 14 2024 14:20 utc | 343

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 11:13 utc | 324
Norway was desperate for a free trade agreement etc with the EU so had to agree to some pretty nasty terms, especially on energy pricing. In particular the EU was worried that Norway would have an economic advantage with any product having an energy input, so they made sure that it couldn’t happen and Norway has been suffering the consequences since.
I remember the days when every kitchen had a meter showing the amount of electricity currently being consumed, due to bi-rate billing allowing base and peak loads to be priced differently. Very effective with all that hydro power.
Any Norwegian politician that thinks he has a chance of changing the energy formulas with the EU in the foreseeable future is living in cloud cuckoo land. Probably easier to exit the EU.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:24 utc | 344

@JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:24 utc | 349
Norway had 2 referendums on EU membership, in 1972 and 1994. Both resulted in clear NO. After the 1994 referendum, then PM Gro Harlem Brundtland (later director-general of the WHO) said ‘We have other methods’.
It is the result of these ‘other methods’ we are experiencing.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 14:33 utc | 345

@JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:24 utc | 349

I remember the days when every kitchen had a meter showing the amount of electricity currently being consumed, due to bi-rate billing allowing base and peak loads to be priced differently. Very effective with all that hydro power.

I also remember that, because I still have that meter in my kitchen.

Probably easier to exit the EU.

How do you do that when you never entered in the first place?

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 14:36 utc | 346

I think too that there are not very many targets left to Oreshniks with kinetic war heads. Railway tunnels to Poland come to mind but not very much else.
The enemy has seen the consequences of staff and merc concentrations even in deep bunkers, so now they are all constantly on the move. That is stuff for partisans.

Posted by: Catilina | Dec 14 2024 14:36 utc | 347

no more rouge elephant.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 11:28 utc | 329
Are you saying the orange makeup is coming off? Or did you mean to type “rogue?”
😉 sorry, couldn’t resist.

Posted by: Mary | Dec 14 2024 14:37 utc | 348

it seems to me that the strategy of taking out the electricity, gas etc is a two pronged approach. first it sets back the county as it makes it harder for almost anything to get done. Transportation, conducting business. secondly and maybe more importantly is the possibility of pushing millions more Ukranians into Europe. In the last 20 years all of the fighting has pushed so many refugees into western Europe. does this help with denazification, seems like it might, it will also push the problem of taking care of all of these Ukranians onto the people that really started the war. The cost to EU/NATO over the years could be tremendous plus now they’ve essentially invited the Ukraines permanenly into their countries. I think in the long run this is better then launching another Oreshnik, the effects will be devastating and last for many years, if not generations.

Posted by: Oz | Dec 14 2024 14:40 utc | 349

dan of steele@323…..if you have some compassion and empathy you should feel sorry for those people who insist on correcting grammar and spelling errors, Spelling Prefects…..imagine the pathetic shallow petty lives they lead when the highlight of their day and to show their own pompous magnanimity is to correct spelling errors…..so sad.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 14 2024 15:03 utc | 350

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 4:44 utc | 277
########
I have read it.
It’s an easy read.
Helped me better understand he thinks. 99% of his critics clearly haven’t bothered.
You’re correct in that his successful business tactics probably won’t work with Putin or Xi. Culturally they have different values.
Trump’s gift is that he is creative and ruthless.
People spend a lot of time mocking him, which pisses him off, but he operates unencumbered by norms or traditions. If he wants something, he doesn’t give up until he gets it.
I don’t like Trump the man but he may yet surprise us wrt Russia. He normally tries to find a point of leverage that has been taken for granted (tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada), and then threatens to apply pressure until the other party is willing to give something up to stop it.
Without any moral judgment, he uses a soft form of blackmail to get his way and to avoid violence.
I have been searching for ideas on where he can pressure Russia given that Putin’s government likes the sanctions. Russia and China are developing self-sufficiency. For a long time, American military might and reputation was a substantial point of leverage where Trump could deploy an aircraft carrier to visit a 2nd world power during negotiations to “send a message”.
Those shenanigans wouldn’t work on Russia during his first term, and definitely will not today with any of the Axis powers.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 15:06 utc | 351

Posted by: Philly | Dec 14 2024 4:54 utc | 280
#########
This sort of thing is exactly what I am talking about.
You’re more interested in petty character assassination than you are in learning.
I don’t like Trump but I do have some understanding of how he operates.
If you don’t understand the method what meaningful critique can you offer?
Don’t spend all of your time at the bar in the kiddie section drinking Shirley Temples.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 15:12 utc | 352

Re: Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 132

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 13 2024 20:01 utc | 130
So much wibble in this post I don’t know where to start…
Actually, I can’t be bothered debunking that mess point by point, life is too short…

Be honest JR-L – you ”can’t be bothered debunking that” because you actually Can’t debunk it. Full Stop.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 15:13 utc | 353

Posted by: Mary | Dec 14 2024 8:19 utc | 295
##########
Even psychopaths have tendencies.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 15:14 utc | 354

“”Peace through strength” is an American MIC marketing slogan.”
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:24 utc | 16″
The slogan I am more familiar with is “Peace Through Superior Fire Power” and I have seen hats, t-shirts and posters proclaiming same.

Posted by: DoesIt ReallyMatter | Dec 14 2024 15:19 utc | 355

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 11:14 utc | 325
##########
Read the book yourself and draw your own conclusions.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 15:19 utc | 356

re: Dec 14 2024 8:14 utc | 293 and Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:51 utc | 321
Regarding the possibility of the Deep State killing Trump and Vance, ask yourselves why:
1) Two months ago, the US military was authorized to use lethal force against the American people (this is unconstitutional but the Constitution is no longer respected by those ruling the US), and
2) Despite the opposition of all 55 governors of states and US Territories, the final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing control of the National Guard Air defense from the states and transferring control to the Federal government.
This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. What are they planning that would trigger a Second Civil War in the US?

Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 14 2024 15:22 utc | 357

I think too that there are not very many targets left to Oreshniks with kinetic war heads.
Posted by: Catilina | Dec 14 2024 14:36 utc | 352
Of course there are. The site of all conventional nuclear weapons in the west are a target.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 14 2024 15:23 utc | 358

Maximalists: “why putin not smash Ukraine”
No special info, but assuming there’s good reasons, what might they be?
– restricting (but not stopping) materièl etc, so as to deal with it nearer to border (shorter rus supply lines)
– not wanting total destruction, preferring minimal-necessary damage to maintain a functional neighbour post-conflict
– total destruction might increase ukr forces motivation
– maybe some backchannel understanding that eu/nato ‘hands off’ minimal involvement prevents refugee flood into eu, very destabilising
– maybe completely wrong; presumably other stuff I’m unaware of.
In short: why? well, try and figure out what the motives might be. It’s instructive

Posted by: Father Dougal | Dec 14 2024 15:23 utc | 359

Re: Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:59 utc | 38
You always leave your enemy a path of retreat.
“Give your enemy a golden bridge to retreat across”
-Sun Tzu
You don’t want them fighting to the death. As they become more bitter and vengeful, the more likely they are to commit an atrocity. Where nuclear powers are involved, such an atrocity could be fatal for the species.
Exactly like the Russians did in Syria 5-6 years ago. Or Debaltseve in 2014-15 for that matter.
That turned out great.
If you leave people a way out – they’ll just keep fighting you when they regroup.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 14:20 utc | 347
But nobody has fought to the death yet, i.e. used nukes, it has all been just patty-cake back and forth, we hear complaints about that all day. So it’s working great.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 15:25 utc | 360

for a little amusement:

🇷🇺🇱🇹Lithuanian athlete wears ‘make Russia small again’ T-shirt at World Fitness Championships. She is disqualified
Kornelija Dudaye complained that Russian athletes wore T-shirts with the country’s name despite their neutral status. She also didn’t like that the announcer openly called them Russians.
The committee reprimanded the Lithuanian and demanded that she change her shirt, but she refused, which led to her disqualification. Following her, the entire Lithuanian team withdrew from the competition in Hungary in protest.

sore losers.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 14 2024 15:33 utc | 361

In short: why? well, try and figure out what the motives might be. It’s instructive
Posted by: Father Dougal | Dec 14 2024 15:23 utc | 363
——————————————————————————-
How about this one: Putin is too smart to be pushed into WW3 with NATO before Biden leaves office: IT IS A TRAP.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 14 2024 15:40 utc | 362

Re: Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 13 2024 22:34 utc | 180

No. The way the West wins .vs. Russia is to goad Russia into doing something that galvanizes and unites and enrages the Public West, so they generate the massive pile of people (dead bodies) and material necessary to overwhelm Russia in conventional terms.
This is why Russia’s nuclear doctrine was changed to allow for the use of short-range “tactical” nukes. Russia is attempting to preempt the West’s “overwhelm with bodies” move. A better way to preempt that move is to … not provide the casus belli the West wants, so it can’t marshal the bodies and materials necessary to conduct that attack.

No, you clearly haven’t learnt anything from the Study of War.
The West expects Russia to NEVER HIT NATO.
They feel very safe in making that assumption – because they are the aggressor setting the tempo in Ukraine – for 20+ years – and Russia is ALWAYS on the DEFENSIVE and REACTIVE.
If you know anything about War you know this.
If The West WANTED A WAR – they would conduct a False Flag Attack on themselves and blame Russia.
It’s that easy.
The Fact they haven’t done this tells you they don’t actually want World War III.
You should really study the History of War because your pontificating in the dark at the moment.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 15:53 utc | 363

Any Norwegian politician that thinks he has a chance of changing the energy formulas with the EU in the foreseeable future is living in cloud cuckoo land. Probably easier to exit the EU.
Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 14:24 utc | 349

Norway isn’t in the EU.

Posted by: schkid | Dec 14 2024 15:53 utc | 364

“Well. The U$ now has hypersonic weapons.
No need to bother with pesky R-D; time wasting testing.Manufacturing.
The easiest and simplest and cheapest way to acquire hypersonics is to simply say you have them.
Job done.”
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 14 2024 11:26 utc | 328
Ah, yes, the warp speed vaccine method.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Dec 14 2024 15:56 utc | 365

Only one big problem, Don. All your previous “deals” were between you and one other, a competitor, NOT as a mediator between waring parties or someone 15 years your senior in geopolitics.

Whatever, anybody US can’t be “Moderator” as they are party to the conflict.
Central issue in all US activities advertised as “conflict mediation” operations.
dishonest, fraudulent, backstabbing ops.

Posted by: MAKK | Dec 14 2024 16:03 utc | 366

re: retroflecks | Dec 14 2024 8:14 utc | 293 and Norwegian | Dec 14 2024 10:51 utc | 321
Two months ago, the US military was authorized to use lethal force against the American people, and now the final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors.
WHY? This appears to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.
(posted without links because MoA deleted first post that included links)

Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 14 2024 16:04 utc | 367

It’s amazing how much damage the Russians were able to inflict considering that Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down 120% of the Russian missiles again.

Posted by: Gregorio | Dec 14 2024 16:10 utc | 368

Hi,Ossi,
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/13/russia-and-iran-lack-strategic-vision/
an analysis for you?
“My conclusion has been that neither Russia nor Iran has an intelligence service”

Kind regards

Posted by: Oberbayer | Dec 14 2024 16:21 utc | 369

Of course I know that Norway isn’t in the EU, I used it as a turn of phrase, but with the trade agreement and Schengen it may as well be.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 14 2024 16:29 utc | 370

Posted by: andreweed | Dec 13 2024 19:37 utc | 123

Evidently you have not been keeping up with developments on the battlefront. Ukrainian units are being driven into cauldrons centering on larger towns and cities. Envelopment of those hard positions means that the UAF forces, overstretched and undermanned…are inevitably forced to retreat, further and further away from the heavily industrialized and urbanized Donbass region and out into the wide open steepelands, where the establishment of redoubts is somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:25 utc | 112
lets wait when peskov will announce putin is setting another line.. next time it is an “infra red” line.

there is no “red line” from Putin, except in your imagination
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75092 about long-range missles
“….If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement – it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.
This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us…..”
Let’s take a look another Putin’s statement
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75182 about use of nuclear weapons
“…It also states clearly the conditions for Russia’s transition to the use of nuclear weapons. We will consider such a possibility once we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border. I mean strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, hypersonic and other aircraft…”

Posted by: ghiwen | Dec 14 2024 16:37 utc | 371

Maximalists: “why putin not smash Ukraine”
***
In short: why? well, try and figure out what the motives might be. It’s instructive
Posted by: Father Dougal | Dec 14 2024 15:23 utc | 3
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:59 utc | 38
You always leave your enemy a path of retreat.
“Give your enemy a golden bridge to retreat across”
-Sun Tzu ***
*** If you leave people a way out – they’ll just keep fighting you when they regroup.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 14:20 utc | 347
RF needs to maintain escalatory dominance, while keeping open a diplomatic Sun Tsu “golden bridge” escape route. This keeps enough oxygen in the NATO decision making rooms so that taking the escape seems to be their own decision and claiming the narrative that they are the smartest. This is how persuasion works. “Smash” your opponent approaches only creates a more motivated, desperate and unpredictible opposition.
The fight may continue after the escape, yes, but some of the pressure to continue the fight has been relieved. The fight continues not because of golden bridge tactic, but because of the preexisting causative conditions.

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 16:48 utc | 372

The reason Russia didn’t conduct another Oreshnik strike is because they don’t have any. Putin gave the order to start production but getting operational assets could take months to years
Posted by: ShatGPT | Dec 14 2024 10:49 utc | 320

Remember “nukes on Japan”
IMU the US at that time did not have much in store to continue nukeing ( anybody ).

Posted by: MAKK | Dec 14 2024 16:48 utc | 373

Back before the SMO i thought that out of Iran and Russia it would be Russia that cuts a deal with the West.
I thought Iran would stubbornly hold out until it got nuked.
Then in 2022 Russia finally invaded Ukraine, with presumably high hopes of a quick victory, but i think if anyone advised Putin of that then they were likely working for the CIA.
It is clear that out of self interest, and who can blame them, Iran cut a deal, sold out the resistance, and so Syria fell.
Surely unless Russia cuts a deal with Turkey, or Israel, or NATO, or USA, its presence in Syria is doomed.
Is Russia hoping its alliance with China can stop the Ukraine trap ending with the same results as the Afghan trap. Is that part of China’s plan, to keep Russia afloat and intact for the next couple of decades whilst it builds up enough naval strength, has Russia agreed to this, were they both hoping Iran would hold out and the resistance last a bit longer, for Syria to hold for now.
Is this just fantasy, have i gone crazy and lost my mind in trying to predict the future?

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 16:52 utc | 374

The reason Russia didn’t conduct another Oreshnik strike is because they don’t have any. Putin gave the order to start production but getting operational assets could take months to years
Posted by: ShatGPT | Dec 14 2024 10:49 utc | 320
In the US the best mechanics are fully occupied by doing a coyote swap into a 1980’s foxbody and the like. In Russia, they are taking Soviet era munitions and retrofitting them (FAB 500 glide bomb, etc.). I don’t think Oreshnik production requires any great miracle of production. Something old, something new, something borrowed and something blue.

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 16:56 utc | 375

@ Keith | Dec 14 2024 16:52 utc | 380
Trying to predict the future based on how you feel and not what you know always leads to a fantastic, if occasionally entertaining, nonsense.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 14 2024 16:59 utc | 376

“Trying to predict the future based on how you feel and not what you know always leads to a fantastic, if occasionally entertaining, nonsense.”
Posted by: boneless | Dec 14 2024 16:59 utc | 382
____________________________________________________________
So you know how i feel and what i don’t know! Crikey, i ***feel*** so naked right now
Aaaaaaarggggghhhh!

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:16 utc | 377

Mary @ 354

Are you saying the orange makeup is coming off? Or did you mean to type “rogue?”

🙂 Yes, and I know better, had a friend that worked for a company with rogue in the name, he said that a good part of the folks contacting them spelled it rouge. So, much so that they called it that among themselves as a joke.
Could a rouge elephant be a pink elephant when it’s ripe?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 17:18 utc | 378

@ Keith | Dec 14 2024 16:52 utc | 380
“Iran cut a deal, sold out the resistance, and so Syria fell”
I doubt very much that Iran has cut a deal, both because the Axis Of Evil considers Iran a far bigger threat than Syria, and because the AOE are not “agreement capable”.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 14 2024 17:19 utc | 379

Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 14:20 utc | 348
##########
Yes, genocide is the default Western approach.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 17:27 utc | 380

Dear boneless
Do you read, have you read, much history, and i mean over the ages, over decades or centuries, for the period covering the last few thousand years, say.
Do you think we live in a static world now, and all that shifting of power centres and cultures is just a thing of the past, consigned ot teh dustbin of history as they say.
Do you think this period is somehow the pinacle of man, and the things of the past are just that, the past, that we have somehow evolved and developed, and that in a hudreds of years time scholars will look back at us and mock us in the same way we mock our not too recent history.
I’m not bothered by what you think, i just wondwered if you’d ever thought of it like that, that we will be judged in time as barbarian savages, that in a thousand years time our period will be classed as still part of the dark ages.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:27 utc | 381

@bemildred, Julian & Lovedonbass!
Re: Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:59 utc | 38
You always leave your enemy a path of retreat.
“Give your enemy a golden bridge to retreat across”
-Sun Tzu
Absolutely fascinating topic you’ve touched on! In my very limited knowledge I’m hard pressed to find examples of this that worked out in favor for the party allowing such a golden bridge! In fact, every single time someone’s shown such restraint (to my knowledge) it’s been absolutely disastrous for them. Let’s play a couple of real world scenarios;
1) Dunkirk. Hitler believed that allowing the bulk of the English army back across the channel would be seen as an act of mercy and also a solid example of a rational actor that could be negotiated with, extending an olive branch for talks etc. Tactical details aside, he had an opportunity to neutralize the majority of England’s army at the time and didn’t really take it (yes, I know there was the whole silliness with the luftwaffe’s dumb promises they couldn’t keep, but still they COULD have sent their army in vs holding back) Imagine if things had gone the other way- it could have completely changed the outcome of the war- not that I’m saying that would be a good thing.
2) Stalingrad. Could you imagine if the Soviets were like “hey, those 6th army chaps are pretty tough, let’s not go all the way to Kalach. It’ll be WAY easier if we have them in ‘operational encirclement’ as that way we can re-take the city faster as they pull out and evacuate their wounded! Instead of Stalingrad being the beginning of the end for the third reich, what would have happened if one of their premier armies survived instead of being completely obliterated?
3) Most recently- Israel with Hezbollah. WHAT IF after their exploding pager op they -had not- killed Nasrallah (and the person who took his place, and maybe also the person who took their place???) and -had not- launched massive pre-emptive strikes on all the various caches of missiles and rockets. On the flipside, what if HZBLA had instead gone all in and launched everything they had in Oct/Nov 2023 instead of sitting back almost a year “waiting for the right moment” until it was far too late.
To be clear, I’m not saying alternate outcomes either way would be more preferred over what actually happened-just that I can’t find too many (or any?) examples of Sun Tzu’s golden bridge working out too well. Happy to be wrong though, would love to hear counterarguments!

Posted by: Clown Shoes | Dec 14 2024 17:29 utc | 382

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:24 utc | 16
Given all the trolls that are swarming (maybe I could call them . . . drones?), you, good sir, along with Doctor Eleven, and Jeremy Rhymings-Lang, and a few other, are the reason I keep coming back.
“The trolls yip, but the SMO continues.” (Obviously derived from “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.”)
Posted by: Hunsdon | Dec 13 2024 20:35 utc | 142
Hear, hear! Great public service today, Love. I have nothing to add.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 14 2024 17:35 utc | 383

If The West WANTED A WAR – they would conduct a False Flag Attack on themselves and blame Russia.
It’s that easy.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 14 2024 15:53 utc | 369
##########
That’s what Trump’s 2016 Russian election interference was all about. Remember, Obama threw out many Russian diplomats once Trump was elected, and confiscated sovereign Russian property inside of America.
One of your many errors is that you don’t understand that your guys aren’t all-powerful.
If you were, the West would be looting a fractured Russia again.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 17:36 utc | 384

@Julian | Dec 14 2024 15:53 utc, who said:

[Tom] … you clearly haven’t learnt anything from the Study of War.
The West expects Russia to NEVER HIT NATO.
They feel very safe in making that assumption – because they are the aggressor setting the tempo in Ukraine – for 20+ years – and Russia is ALWAYS on the DEFENSIVE and REACTIVE.
If you know anything about War you know this.
If The West WANTED A WAR – they would conduct a False Flag Attack on themselves and blame Russia.
It’s that easy.
The Fact they haven’t done this tells you they don’t actually want World War III.
You should really study the History of War because your pontificating in the dark at the moment.

Julian, let’s agree that Russia doesn’t want to directly attack NATO. Let’s further agree that the West doesn’t want a nuclear war, because the West will get crisped, along with everyone else.
Let’s further agree that NATO may well elect to conduct a false-flag operation.
=== Now let’s go thru your post, and I’ll provide point-by-point commentary.
Julian: The Fact they haven’t done this [conduct a false-flag op to instigate a NATO-Russia full-on war] tells you they don’t actually want World War III.
Tom: All it tells me is that neither NATO nor Russia thinks that conditions are ripe for the next phase of the war. I assert that WWIII is already started, we’re just in early innings. The two sides are probing one another, seeing who can do what, and where.
Julian: The West expects Russia to NEVER HIT NATO.
Tom: The West correctly expects Russia to not hit NATO on NATO soil unless … Russia feels the need to preemptively destroy NATO resources before NATO can mount a coordinated, well-supported attack on Russia. NATO currently can’t conduct a successful war on Russia. Russia isn’t going to give NATO the political tools it needs to marshal itself.
Julian: They feel very safe in making that assumption – because they are the aggressor setting the tempo in Ukraine – for 20+ years – and Russia is ALWAYS on the DEFENSIVE and REACTIVE.
Tom: You’re saying that at the moment, the U.S. is setting the tempo in Ukraine? And you’re the one that claims to “study warfare”? Looks to me like Russia is setting the tempo, is going to be dictating terms of surrender in Ukraine, and is going to prolong the EU economic-destruction agony (set up the the U.S.) as long as it takes to ruin NATO politically.
How many more years do you think the EU can sustain the economic decline and resulting political fragmentation it’s experiencing now? And the pressure is just starting. For the past few years the E.U. (esp. Germany) papered over the energy-related industrial damage by paying off the “losers” using public monies to socialize the increased energy costs caused by following the U.S. foreign policy dictates.
Let’s take a closer look at the “damage” to the German industrial base:
a. Rapidly increasing energy costs have reduced Germany’s energy-intensive industrial output by 20% over the past two years
b. Exports to China from Germany have dropped from 8% of total exports to 6% (25% reduction) in just 3 years.
c. 3 of 10 VW plants in Germany … shutdown. Manufacturing base leaving Germany for U.S. and China. (for ex: BASF downsizing in Germany, builds $10Billion new plant in China).
For those that don’t know how the German economy works, a big percentage of the German economy is directly related to the automotive industry. Where goes VW is where goes the German economy.
So Julian – the only “pace” the West is setting … seems to be the pace of EU de-industrialization. Russia has no need to attack NATO directly – as yet.
NATO on the other hand, actually does have need to change the current situational trajectory, and that is what the provocations with long-range missiles are all about. And the Syria ploy. There will be other ploys, too.
For the Bar: Julian is a provocateur-troll, many of you already know that. It’s worthwhile to respond to this particular troll because – in this instance – Julian provided a great opportunity to set out some important info for the rest of the Bar’s benefit.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 14 2024 17:53 utc | 385

Not that i think Iran is safe from attack, just that it wont be getting nuked anytime soon
I imagine that an overthrow still needs to happen and at present it is only a faction within Iran that has sold out

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:55 utc | 386

I’m not bothered by what you think

@ Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:27 utc | 387
Correct. You should be more bothered by what you think.

Posted by: boneless | Dec 14 2024 17:57 utc | 387

For the Bar: Julian is a provocateur-troll, many of you already know that. It’s worthwhile to respond to this particular troll because – in this instance – Julian provided a great opportunity to set out some important info for the rest of the Bar’s benefit.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 14 2024 17:53 utc | 391
############
Well done.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 17:57 utc | 388

> Most here have heard of the Soviets falling into a trap by invading Afhanistan…
> Is this situation in Ukraine not similar, not at least similar in intent on the part of the West?…
> Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 14:09 utc | 346
I can not know how much of the above was true, but i can attest significant parts of Russians believe so.
It is well known that EuroMaidan was abruptly launched one or two years before its planned date, which forced it (and EU by proxy, and “house on the hill” cultists in general) to show its ugly face more than they wanted.
My personal belief is, the sole reason for this false start was fear of Russian entering Syria and attempts to preempt or at least to delay it. The attempts partially successful
If you would read into history, EVEN USA-controlled Wikipedia, you would learn USSR did NOT want to enter Afghanistan, and only entered it after few years of requests and of bloody infighting Afghanistan elites started, with all sides claiming doing their crimes for the Kremlin. Perceiving “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” trap the Kremlin decided to at least own the misdeeds it would anyway be accused off.
Equally, in 2013 (sic!) Ukrainians very vocally demanded Russian invasion, becaise – quote! – if you do not, then EuroMaidan goons would force us to attack Russia, you would kill us all, and that would be a stinking stain you would never wash off. Somehow them attacking Russia foor the goons was not seen any stain.
The 2022 invasion was very unexpected exactly because for all the years before there was consensus that Ukraine is one very poisoned fruit and we should avoid biting it for as long as would be possible.
The details of military intelligence in 2022 February, that allegedly forced Putin’s hand after years of evadingm are still classified.
OTOH there was that famous non-ultimatum issued, in December 2021, which probably was related, probably it was the admission that Russia was goaded into this trap and this time it really can not find the third exit, like it used to.
Also, the public reality TV show, “government councelling”, was showing all Putin’s wingmen explictilty claiming their agreement with the invasion and their commitment to “with the shield or one the shield”, showed (AFAIR) Patrushev head of intelligence to be very disheartened and uwqilling, albeit eventually he forced the words of aggreement out. There were many voices later that he showed himself a coward or even traitor and should be dismissed, so the intelligence would be steered by somebody resourcefull and believing in the cause.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 17:58 utc | 389

I imagine that an overthrow still needs to happen and at present it is only a faction within Iran that has sold out
Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:55 utc | 392
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Why does it need to happen?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 17:59 utc | 390

I doubt very much that Iran has cut a deal, both because the Axis Of Evil considers Iran a far bigger threat than Syria, and because the AOE are not “agreement capable”.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 14 2024 17:19 utc | 385
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How do you explain events; generals, president, allies, guests, friends, militia, all gone.
Do you think it is just a run of recent bad luck?
And what about the mouthing off, bragging, threatening, promising to deliver a crushing blow and break Israel’s teeth (which has been a magnitute more than anything Putin has said), but then doing nothing at all.
Two pointless and ineffective strikes, and then nothing.
As i said above i think it is a faction within Iran that sold out, and that Iran will still be getting attention from the empires military to complete the job.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:03 utc | 391

“Perceiving “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” trap ”
Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 17:58 utc | 395
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Thank you, i’ll read what you said again to try and absorb it all.
The damned if you do and damned if you dont seems to pretty much sum up a lot of unfolding events

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:10 utc | 392

Why does it [the Iranian overthrow] need to happen?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 17:59 utc | 396
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Because the empire wills it.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:12 utc | 393

> Trump … to apply pressure until the other party is willing to give something up to stop it.
> Without any moral judgment, he uses a soft form of blackmail to get his way and to avoid violence.
> I have been searching for ideas on where he can pressure Russia
> Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 15:06 utc | 357
See, this is a matter of trust. Do you believe the price you padid would really remove the pressure once and for all? Is there “the deal” or a ruse?
There is a motto to never deal with hostage takers. They would take money, then they would demand twice more, because you exposed yourself as a kneeled cow to milk forever.
Remember JCPOA, the treaty USA arranged and then violated it as soon, as all other signed it.
What do Americans say about you? They uniformly (almost) laugh at it: fools are guilty of being fools and deserved a costly lesson.
Americans uniformly (almost) say: anybody daring to negotiate with USA must learn American laws and must know only treaties with Congress mean a thing but nothing signed by fleeting presidents.
USA gave us string of examples when one official made a deal that another official destroyed in a day or a week, to the thunderous American laughter.
So, it may well be, that Trump fingers at some pain point of Russia. It is not that hard, i think every barfly could do that.
And then Trump would.. offer a deal?
Buit Trumpo can not offer a thing! On Congress can offer deals and Americans are proud of it.
Granted, there would be lots of MSM lies that Trump did offer a deal (which he did not because it is not possible for POTUS to do ever).
Granted, there is chance for Russia to sign that deal, if Kremlin would think that buying some (month? year? 4 years?) time would be worth it.
But other than that i fail to see anything Trump can offer.
The deal you described is a choice between carrot and stick, but USA has no carrots.
The deal is taking monet for providing goods or service, but there is nothing in USA depot it could provide.
Maybe Trumpo is the world best dealmaker ever born, but even the best salesman has to have something on the shelf to be selling, and POTUS has nothing

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 18:13 utc | 394

Correct. You should be more bothered by what you think.
Posted by: boneless | Dec 14 2024 17:57 utc | 393
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Oh i am, my dear, i am – that’s why i’m here laying it bare.
Anyway, i just meant i didnt want your thesis on the matter i just wondered if you had even ever considered it.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:15 utc | 395

Do you think this period is somehow the pinacle of man……and that in a hudreds of years time scholars will look back…
Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 17:27 utc | 387
You were not asking me, but;
Where things seem to be heading, this may well be the pinnacle of man and there may be no future scholars to judge us. At least until the deep sea tube worms or some other surviving species evolve enough to be curious about what happened to the psychotic hairless apes.

Posted by: saner | Dec 14 2024 18:15 utc | 396

Because the empire wills it.
Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:12 utc | 399
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Like the Empire willed the success of Ukraine over Russia?
Like the Empire willed hypersonic missiles into their inventories?
It’s basic econ. Demand is limited only by imagination, supply is limited by finite limits.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 18:17 utc | 397

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 18:13 utc | 400
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We agree. Trump doesn’t have anything to offer that I (or you) can see, and attempts to “strong-arm” Putin will fail.
I do not expect much from Trump’s “peace”.
I think he will never acknowledge that he armed the Ukrainians to kill Russians in Donbass, as he will never admit that his (WARP SPEED) vaccines cause cancer.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 18:22 utc | 398

I didn’t expect Trump to call out the Biden apparatus, for reckless escalation. Now that he has, it’s reasonable to suppose that such a statement might make a difference in how Russia relates to USA. Trump has started making the kind of statements which just might force us back from the precipice, and I sure hope he keeps it up. I’ve never given him credit for anything before.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 14 2024 1:28 utc | 238

i haven’t skimmed all of the comments since this one to see if anyone has addressed it yet, but listen to the first 15 minutes or so of garland nixon’s show this week w/ guest scott ritter
evidently this is djt chanelling ritter & co’s messages after direct contact w/ govt officials last week

Posted by: b real | Dec 14 2024 18:25 utc | 399

“Where things seem to be heading, this may well be the pinnacle of man and there may be no future scholars to judge us. At least until the deep sea tube worms or some other surviving species evolve enough to be curious about what happened to the psychotic hairless apes.”
Posted by: saner | Dec 14 2024 18:15 utc | 402
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Blimey, you’re more gloomy than i am! 🙂
____________________________________________________
Some more mentalist ravings about Iran then i will try to give it a rest for a while:
Iranian revolution is dying, if not already dead, the country will come under presidential control and the supreme leader will no longer rule supreme. But there might be some corrective bombing to help it all along. It wont be smooth running, there will be casualties, more casualties, some important people will be bribed, tricked, killed off etc. Some outgoing strikes, as not everyone will be onboard, but in the end the military will be renamed as IDGC (Iranian Democratic Guard Coprs).
Pease note: this is a prediction not a wish

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 18:51 utc | 400