Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 13, 2024
Russia Retaliates For ATACMS Strike – Improves Trolling

Those who were waiting for another Oreshnik strike, in response to the U.S. ATACMS attack on a strategic air plane factory in the Russian city of Taganrog, will be disappointed by this:

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On 11 December 2024, from the from the territory of Ukraine the AFU delivered a strike by six U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the military airfield near Taganrog.

In response to the use of U.S.-made long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces delivered mass strikes by high-precision air- and sea-based weapons and attack drones at Ukrainian fuel and power infrastructure facilities ensuring operation of the defence industry.

The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.

The 'response' has been successful. There is then no additional need to follow up with another Oreshnik strike.

Ukraine has confirmed the success of the strike:

Russia deals 'massive blow' to Ukraine's thermal power plants, energy company says

Russia targeted DTEK's thermal power plants during a mass aerial attack on Dec. 13, damaging their equipment, the company said in a statement.

Moscow's forces launched around 90 missiles and 200 drones in one of its largest mass attacks on Ukraine's power grid as the winter is setting in.

"DTEK thermal power plants were attacked. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties," the company said. The plants' equipment was "seriously damaged," with energy sector employees already working on repairs.

Interestingly the strikes hit mostly in west-Ukraine where electricity and gas from the EU is imported into Ukraine (machine translation):

There is serious damage. According to our source on the energy market, the Burshtyn and Prydniprovska TPPs were damaged (which DTEK indirectly confirmed by reporting equipment damage at one of its thermal power plants), key substations in Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and other regions, and power lines throughout the country.

Ukrenergo has already announced tougher light restrictions. According to the current situation, there are currently three out of six outage queues. "This means that half the country is without electricity," says energy market expert Oleg Popenko. In Odessa, additional restrictions were introduced. "The situation there is very serious, people will sit for some time without electricity for 7-11 hours," Popenko said.

But the risks have increased not only in electricity, but also in gas and heating, as the Russian Federation has again hit the gas infrastructure.

"If there are interruptions in gas supply, the situation with electricity (since TPP and CHPP operate on gas) and heating will sharply worsen. At minus 10 degrees, which meteorologists promise us for a day, the average panel can stand without heating for 36-40 hours, then the system will need to be completely repaired. That is, high-rise buildings can become uninhabitable," says Popenko.

Ukraine had to lower the output of 5 of its 9 nuclear power plants as some relevant substations got it. The unified electricity system of the country is falling apart into islands of generation and consumption. Areas with little generation capacity and high consumption (Odessa) will have the biggest problems.


In comments 'Drifter' mentions a Russian quip about North Korean soldiers in Russia:

Telegram post from 12 hours ago – Yandex machine translation from Russian. Voenkor Kotenok posted the first report (I have found) suggesting actual (limited) use of elite Korean special forces in Kursk a week ago.

Military commander Kotenok

Plekhovo, which was liberated on December 6 in the Kursk direction, was indeed taken by Korean SSR fighters. We passed 2 kilometers through a minefield, broke into the settlement with lightning speed and destroyed the occupation contingent of the ukrovermakht. The operation took about 2.5 hours. They took their "200" and "300" with them.

According to some information, there were no prisoners. They will not take it in the future.

@voenkorKotenok

Nice trolling I'd say, with -of course- zero evidence.

Funny how some people are falling for it.

Comments

@ wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:32 utc | 178
thanks… what you say makes sense to me..
@ debs… thanks for your post too..

Posted by: james | Dec 13 2024 23:32 utc | 201

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc | 198

Don’t worry, they’ve got tons of old washing machines and shovels to build’em cheap!
Seriously, an intermediate range full-trip hypersonic deep penetration weapon that’s both nuclear and non-nuclear? It’s a literal knife to European leadership’s neck and they can’t do a damn thing about it. That’s the very definition of useful.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:35 utc | 202

I can but think that this response does not establish deterrence at all. The forces behind the attacks into Russia care nothing for Ukrainian lives and well-being. Yes, it may be one step closer to victory. The problem though is that the real antagonist, the instigator of this ‘war on Russia’ will likely be emboldened by the non-response. In such case, God Forbid it, Russia may expect worse provocations that are more successful in destroying strategic infrastructure and killing Russians.

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Dec 13 2024 23:42 utc | 203

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik. And it’s definitely NOT a substitute for Nukes. ***
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc | 198
Oreshnik makes hardened bases, including, US “tripwire” obsolete. Oreshnik destroyed them however many levels down they go, including whatever could not be destroyed by a nuke. Previously, the only way to neutralize a base was by a nuke (you’ve already lost before you deploy) or by actual human occupation (not possible behind line of contact). No place is safe now, especially now for brass and VIPs. Yes, Oreshnik uses are narrow, but it is devastating in its niche.

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 13 2024 23:42 utc | 204

Russia needs to go after the Ukrainian military’s logistics and supply routes.
If Russia doesn’t figure out better tactics, then they will still be fighting in the middle of the Donbas in a year, and Ukrainian forces will still be in Kursk.

Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 13 2024 23:44 utc | 205

Oreshnik’s prive advantage is the speed, it’s range and the fact that currently none can stop it.
w/o war heads its kinetc energy is good to destroy some strong ground buildings. The potential of the Oreshnik is with atomic war heads. SO the first demonstration was a warning wo all europeans “do not think you are invulnerable and unassailable”.
Currently they can build up to 25 /month. So the West is trying to lure Russia out and waste as many as possible, because Russia needs at least 200 for an effective second strike force.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 23:45 utc | 206

That’s the very definition of useful.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:35 utc | 202
But only if……used.
Obviously I and others only have a limited amount of knowledge to speculate why Russia is making or not making moves, but I find little that seems logical in their behaviour now. More and more, it looks like they are just playing their role in a global theater production.
But what I think changes nothing and what will happen, will happen regardless.

Posted by: saner | Dec 13 2024 23:49 utc | 207

Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 13 2024 18:55 utc | 90
You sound disappointed that Russia didn’t start WW3. Did you lose a bet or do you want to end it all but are too chicken to do it yourself?
Personally I’m hoping this war ends with a quick coupe and Ukraine’s surrender before Christmas and I can stop worrying about my grandchildren having to live in a culvert with third degree burns and radiation sickness because some tit on MOA gets their armegeddon wish.
———–
So your lordship, we cannot question the lack of direct response to repeated attacks? And if we do dare to question we are ‘tits’ that want everybody to die? Get off your high horse. The statement / question was a reasonable one, that I am certain MANY Russians are asking too. Deterrence by way of a direct attack against the real enemy is an effective strategy. Its why animals far larger and stronger don’t mess with wolverines or honeybadgers. They may succeed in killing ghe wolverine or honeybadger, but they will get severly even mortally mauled in the process.

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Dec 13 2024 23:56 utc | 208

Russia needs to go after the Ukrainian military’s logistics and supply routes.
If Russia doesn’t figure out better tactics, then they will still be fighting in the middle of the Donbas in a year, and Ukrainian forces will still be in Kursk.
Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 13 2024 23:44 utc | 205

Their tactics are brilliant. They’re bleeding NATO dry!
By the time they finish Ukraine NATO won’t have an armored leg to stand on.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:58 utc | 209

@MiniMO
“Russia needs to go after the Ukrainian military’s logistics and supply routes.
If Russia doesn’t figure out better tactics, then they will still be fighting in the middle of the Donbas in a year, and Ukrainian forces will still be in Kursk. “

That’s why we need electrical lines, substations and rail junctions.
This also makes the delivery of electricity from the West obsolete because it cannot be transported. Supplies are slowed down or impossible in the medium term, and with them the construction of new drones and missiles. Nothing works without electricity.
And at Kursk, all Ukrainian units are surrounded, unless they have fled. So there is no need to speed things up. They die or have to surrender. No more supplies are coming. The same at the other hotspots, almost everyone is surrounded.
So everything I have seen so far makes a lot of sense.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 23:59 utc | 210

“How about the multitude of countries with open sewers going directly to the river. someone should tell them the world has come to a end as they pull up their dhoti and take a dump in front of god and everyone.”
reply to: 135
Unfortunately sounds like the awful effects of sewage dumping by water companies across the UK. Tories did nothing, just allowed it – very doubtful if Starmer has the wherewithal to cope.

Posted by: Ray | Dec 14 2024 0:00 utc | 211

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:35 utc | 202
Posted by: frithguild | Dec 13 2024 23:42 utc | 204

Thanks for the corrections.
The points you make are valid and feasible. An unstoppable hypersonic missile poses a real threat until the jewed-up West figures out how to stop one 🙂

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 14 2024 0:04 utc | 212

Russia needs to go after the Ukrainian military’s logistics and supply routes.
Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 13 2024 23:44 utc | 205
==============================================
I’m confident that the strategists of the Russian Federation know EXACTLY what they are doing.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Dec 14 2024 0:10 utc | 213

Daniel Davis talks to Steven Jermy (UK Commadore). Very good. I recommend it for all boozers in the bar.
https://youtu.be/HlVX5fTL1b8?si=DPYF4wHd2LJb1NZl

Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 14 2024 0:18 utc | 214

The points you make are valid and feasible. An unstoppable hypersonic missile poses a real threat until the jewed-up West figures out how to stop one 🙂
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 14 2024 0:04 utc | 212
That is going to be complicated once it splits into six cannisters with six warheads apiece, and after the warheads are released even more so. And you have low two figures minutes to do it. Nukes come to mind, or clouds of ball-bearings, etc. The time is the problem, on account of you have to track it, and predict where it is going to go, before you can try to intercept it. And of course to launch an interceptor and get it to the intercept point takes time too. Nasty problem.
When it hits, it has momentum as well as kinetic energy, the momentum is what carries it into the ground too fast for the ground to react, i.e. faster than the speed of sound in the ground, which it is going much faster than, so it shatters.
I’m very impressed.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 0:24 utc | 215

The US wants to know what metal is used in the Oreshnik. China has recently prohibited the export of three “hard” metals. More than just a coincidence when you look into it.
bingo

Posted by: bingo | Dec 14 2024 0:26 utc | 216

It would serve many on this board well to remember that the original objectives of he SMO included “denazify and demilitarise Ukraine”.
Posted by: eagle eye | Dec 13 2024 22:01 utc | 169
##########
100% correct and often overlooked or “conveniently” forgotten by the NAFO representatives at the bar.
Whether people like or dislike Putin, he is a straight shooter, certainly when he is speaking to the Foreign Ministry and Russian people through the domestic media.
Not a BSer like Zelensky and every Western front man.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 0:34 utc | 217

Years ago Russian state media announced on the third day of the invasion they’d won and conquered Ukraine. About the same time, Ukrainians were capturing orders off the corpses of Russian officers for a ten day invasion plan.
How far we’ve come. Half a million dead Russians or more pulled into war by debt or pushed into it by Chechen Muslim barrier troops for Putin’s unconsummated conquest.
Do you think any of the accounts shilling for Russian extermination of the Ukrainian nation back then have learned their lesson?

Posted by: De Salsa | Dec 14 2024 0:38 utc | 218

The West and the Ukrainian overlords don’t care whether most Ukrainians have power. This will not impact USA decisions.
Posted by: My Comment | Dec 13 2024 22:40 utc | 184
##############
This is a typical Western delusion.
No power, no domestic manufacturing. Everything military must be imported, which means Russia can track it coming in and where it goes. Just about everything that comes in by sea has been sunk outside of Odessa for a month or two now.
Just a few months ago the US was still talking about Russia as a “gas station with nukes”.
The problem with feeding so much crap into the media is that eventually the politicians and decision-makers begin to believe it. The American decision-making “elites” are educated by TV.
That goes for Trump too. He loves to watch TV to understand the world.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 0:39 utc | 219

@Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc, who said:

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik. … Oreshnik seems to be a deep penetration weapon with a limited range of worthwhile/relevant targets.

I agree, so far. There are a limited number of targets it would be worth using an Oreshnik on. That’s why I asked the Bar “what Ukraine-based targets would you use it on?”.
How many bunkers have enough industrial production, or enough high-value players concentrated in one place? How many more times will NATO concentrate people in situations appropriate to Oreshnik?
But that’s not the whole story, right? NATO and the West’s leadership has plenty of bunkers, but what’s in them? Nukes are in them, yes, but Oreshnik can be seen coming (but not stopped from coming). That’s why Russia felt it necessary to provide the 30 minute warning to the West at the point Oreshnik was fired. (so preemptive retaliatory nukes don’t get sent off).
Seems like the use for Oreshnik would be .vs. expensive, concentrated, short-term (10 mins) immobile equipment or staff.
What Oreshnik certainly does is to obsolete the defenses for a lot of NATO bases (esp. the bunker-protected equipment). Pretty much all of it’s in-range of Oreshnik, right?
I’ll say it again: Russia has a reason to trot out Oreshnik now, .vs. “some other time”. Oreshnik is a big psychological tug-boat, moving the USS Mindset Galactica away from the dock it’s tied up at. Big inertia, slow moving. And its moving.
Hence Syria.
Expect more Syrias; Empire’s got issues.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 14 2024 0:44 utc | 220

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik. And it’s definitely NOT a substitute for Nukes. It couldn’t be. The key multiplier in the Kinetic Energy formula is V^2 or 3000^2. The key multiplier for the energy released by a Nuke is C^2 or 300,000^2.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc | 198
##########
Putin said in Kazakhstan that Oreshnik’s effect is like a nuke when multiple are used at once.
Not one at a time.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 0:44 utc | 221

*** Nukes come to mind, or clouds of ball-bearings, ***
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 0:24 utc | 215
Use a nuke for anything, even if only defense, and you have lost. Every brian in the world will equate the user of a nuke as evil. It’s just conditioning.
Clouds of ball bearings won’t do much it seems to me. The power of Oreshnik is hypersonic delivery of mass. Comparatvely tiny BBs won’t divert it much. The BBs, if you can even put them is the right path, won’t disable guidance (likely because targeting vectors are set at the flight apogee – by the time it hits BBs it is super close to the target) or disable triggering for warhead explosive device (there are none).
The posts here demonstrate great knowledge about how Oresknik works, but there is little discussion about how this technology changes how our leaders perceive the balance of advantages to have been altered.

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 0:47 utc | 222

Thanks for the update b.
You know the Russians have responded correctly when the 🧌 trolls come out in force.
So what happens when those enforcing mobilization and the Police start joining in the exodus?
Looks like Russia has already started the process of creating a buffer zone.

Posted by: Suresh | Dec 14 2024 0:48 utc | 223

Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 17:32 utc | 22
“I see zero deterrence in this attack. Your turn NATO…”
By the time the NATO countries get all the new Ukrainian refugees settled in and provisioned they will have forgotten what their response was going to be.

Posted by: Paranaense | Dec 14 2024 0:48 utc | 224

Seriously, an intermediate range full-trip hypersonic deep penetration weapon that’s both nuclear and non-nuclear? It’s a literal knife to European leadership’s neck and they can’t do a damn thing about it. That’s the very definition of useful.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:35 utc | 202
###########
Someone posted the time of travel for Oreshnik to major centers in Europe on Twitter last week.
London, Paris, Berlin, etc.
London was the furthest and I think it was under 5 minutes.
Once Oreshnik is launched, unless someone can detect it prelaunch, nothing can be done about it. I don’t mean shooting it down, there isn’t even enough time to evacuate people or write a long text to your wife that you love her. Certainly not enough time to get birds in the air if the target is an airfield.
When Oreshnik is traveling, it is going to F stuff up. The onus is on the NATO powers to avoid ever triggering an Oreshnik launch in the first place.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 0:51 utc | 225

> Oreshnik. And it’s definitely NOT a substitute for Nukes
actually it is. What you forget about nukes is their tremendous power itself was a compensation for pathetic accuracy then weapon had.
when they threw the bomb at Hiroshima they managed to hit the city, one of then largest, and they even managed to target a specific side of the city. having military installations. But that was about it. ou could target west end of the city or north end, give or take a mile.
meaningfull bombing runs were possible either by:
– low-alititude runs, diving bombers, catching all the flak (which was so deadly, it even got promoted into English idioms)
– statistics, throw thousands of bombs onto the city, so by sheer luck every military building would likely be hit by one or two
– power, make a blast so big, that even in the presense of reverse squares law, the buildings would be set ablaze even when you missed a mile or two
The dreaded German V-2 ballistic missiles created a lot of the headlines and killed some unlucky guys, but did little in military sense. Despite them running – by today standard – a very short path.
The recent Iranian strike at Israel made a number of splendid Youtube videos and other PR, but today Israel Air Forces are circling over the Syria knocking out abandoned military sites. Makes me think, from military standpoint, those missiles did little damage. They damaged Israel, but mostly missed the military targets.
The first American missile to bomb USSR – SM-65 – had “probable” deviation 1400 metres (a mile!) left or right from the target. Well, sorta. It is CEP, it means that HALF the missiles would miss the mark by only a mile or less, and another HALF of them would miss the target for more than a mile. The first soviet missile, R7, was allegedly yet worse with guidance and had 2500 metres CEP.
Nukes were not made big because we want to show the size of out pants. Nukes were made as a COMPENSATION for absolutely pathetic accuracy, and to provide a CHANCE at damagine a target despite hitting a mile or two away. Just that, there is little other sense in nukes.
Now, if Oreshnik truly can perfectly aim the target and destroy it by focusing its energy into the place it has to be – it removes the very reasons for nukes to exist. Oreshnik, allegedly, would not be hitting 1400 meters away from the target, and because of that it removes the need for the macho-compensation that nukes are.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 0:56 utc | 226

Lots of armchair general, lots of troll and some stupid or bored people. Russia can’t easily make symmetrical response to use of ATACMs on Russia motherland. If Mexico is war with USA then it would be possible, Russia can supply some missiles to Mexico, and with use of Russian version of GPS, Mexico hits some airport in San Diego. But Mexico is not in war with USA, not yet. Nor is Canada, just downgraded from Country to State by Orange Man. So it is another proxy type of war. Russia still can’t hit NATO, better say American, base in Poland, or Romania. That would be escalation. Russia, being only responsible on will not do that, yet. Even hitting UK after 404 uses Storm Shadows is not symmetrical. UK and USAN know that. Maybe if TAURUS hits the Russian soil then Russia might choose to lift the bar and hit German NATO base. No need for that, yet. Instead, they hit western Ukraine energy objects. Perfect, let the westernized, catholicized ethnic Russians living in LVOV feel the response to they hearts filled with hatred. General winter will do the rest. Somebody, sane, explained what lack of electricity or heat means for these parts of world. War is getting to an end, atrocity is key word. Soon enough there will bi no new solders, there will be lots of panic, surrendering. Very soon somebody with little bit power and but lot of skills and some brain in 404 will ask himself. Why are we doing this to ourselves, why are we loosing our youth, is it so that our jewish president, like our former jewish president..wait a minute..are we here making reserve land for Satanyahoo, once he pisses off whole Arab world…and maybe whole world…
And then somebody will make a hole in that green shirt head…and Russia will ask neghbours Roamnia and Polland to remove NATO bases from their land, othervise there will bi ASYMETRICAL response…

Posted by: Preki | Dec 14 2024 0:56 utc | 227

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 0:47 utc | 222
I agree, none of it really works, nukes in the atmosphere have their own consequences, might be worse that Oreshnik. The thing maneuvers too, but not very fast I would think. Just looking over the argument. I’m not sure about the shattering either, that would depend on a lot of things, but I think the point about the role of momentum is right. It’s not just the kinetic energy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shatter_cone

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 1:00 utc | 228

Western MSM, is that is “Once were News”?

Posted by: Suresh | Dec 14 2024 1:05 utc | 229

Years ago Russian state media announced on the third day of the invasion they’d won and conquered Ukraine. About the same time, Ukrainians were capturing orders off the corpses of Russian officers for a ten day invasion plan.
How far we’ve come. Half a million dead Russians or more pulled into war by debt or pushed into it by Chechen Muslim barrier troops for Putin’s unconsummated conquest.
Do you think any of the accounts shilling for Russian extermination of the Ukrainian nation back then have learned their lesson?
Posted by: De Salsa | Dec 14 2024 0:38 utc | 218
################
Was this happening back when the Ghost of Kiev (“Samuyil Hyde”) was the toast of the US Congress and Western media?
Btw, Ukraine is not a nation. It is 404.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 1:05 utc | 230

> Years ago American top general, Chief of Staffs announced on the third day of the invasion they’d won and conquered Ukraine
Posted by: De Salsa | Dec 14 2024 0:38 utc | 218
Fixed the mistake for you. No thanks needed.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 14 2024 1:06 utc | 231

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 0:24 utc | 215
I thought TJandtheBear and frithguild were (politely) informing me that my Oreshnik perspective was too narrow and negative. And they’re sort of correct.
I hadn’t considered swarms of Oreshniks nor an Oreshnik with a Nuke at the pointy end – if push comes to shove.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 14 2024 1:07 utc | 232

I follow the daily mapping and news but don’t comment here often. Here is my view of Russia’s military strategically.
I have felt that since summer we have been witnessing a slow motion of events that constitute a big Arrow offensive. Historically these things are not instantaneous; they take time.
Having succeeded in attriting the Ukrainian forces, we can first observe that Russia creates small cauldrons where they wear down those forces and make an advance. We have seen a few dozen so far and there are currently several active ones.
What I noticed is that these occur within an effort to create a larger cauldron. This manifests as two arms of the smaller ones separated apart.
But we’re talking the Russians here. I hope you didn’t think it would be that simple. Tis like the layers of an onion.
As we expand out to a more Regional View, we can see the vast array of trenches Ukraine has built. The key trait being that they are aligned from west to east to oppose an enemy from the south. Oops.
That has resulted in a smaller pattern of Russia getting behind the trenches. It is also in line with their avoiding cities and encircling them first. But now we’re looking at Regional Maps. They do the same thing here.
South of ?Pokrovsk? below the circle of trenches around the city is one such trench line. There are two more south of that. Russia is in the process of pushing Eastward through what are weak defenses. Thereby letting them attack major trench lines from their rear.
These are Big arrows, at least 3, and show a great deal of success. It has been a rapid Advance not a slow one. And there’s no sign of it stopping their plan is a solid one. These small collapses in defenses will only become larger ones. Pokrovsk is toast.
Anytime they see an advantage Russia can open a new front. Many analysts expect them to. Hopefully they have learned the art of deception from their NATO adversaries. They need to up their game in that regard.
Anyways so that was where I’m at currently looking at daily reports.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Dec 14 2024 1:09 utc | 233

Posted by: De Salsa | Dec 14 2024 0:38 utc | 218
amazing, theres still doofuses out there falling for general milleys 3day narrative!

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 14 2024 1:11 utc | 234

I hadn’t considered swarms of Oreshniks nor an Oreshnik with a Nuke at the pointy end – if push comes to shove.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 14 2024 1:07 utc | 232
Yeah, I have no idea what that would do if it hit the ground first, so I think it might have to go off before it hit. What happens when you squish a nuke? The Russians say they know how to do that too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 1:11 utc | 235

*** agree, so far. There are a limited number of targets it would be worth using an Oreshnik on. That’s why I asked the Bar “what Ukraine-based targets would you use it on?”.
How many bunkers have enough industrial production, or enough high-value players concentrated in one place? How many more times will NATO concentrate people in situations appropriate to Oreshnik?
But that’s not the whole story, right? NATO and the West’s leadership has plenty of bunkers, but what’s in them? ***
What Oreshnik certainly does is to obsolete the defenses for a lot of NATO bases (esp. the bunker-protected equipment). Pretty much all of it’s in-range of Oreshnik, right? ***
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 14 2024 0:44 utc | 220
I am not a military guy – just kind of an historian. But just how much decision making, communications, coordination and planning takes place is these hardened locations? I’m an idiot, but i just can’t imagine an ongoing kinetic operation going forward without a safe place for brass and VIPs. Now, the only safe place is outside of the geopolitical theater. How do you do that without the neighbor being a cobeligerant.

Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 1:17 utc | 236

Yeah, I have no idea what that would do if it hit the ground first, so I think it might have to go off before it hit. What happens when you squish a nuke? The Russians say they know how to do that too.
They told: it is like a meteroit. schau auf der Welt, wo große, mittlere und kleinere Meteoriten eingeschlagen sind. Was ist da? Krater, große, kleine, abhängig von Masse und Geschwindigkeit des Auftreffens (die kinetische Energie wirkt in Aufprallrichtung, nicht als Kugelausdehnung.) Eine A-Bombe dazwischen vergrößert das “Loch” kugelförmig, wirkt nach allen Seiten.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:27 utc | 237

President-elect Trump, in his very high-profile Time Magazine interview, said something which frankly surprised me, given the idiocy we’ve heard from advisors:

It’s crazy what’s taking place. It’s crazy. I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. Now they’re doing not only missiles, but they’re doing other types of weapons. And I think that’s a very big mistake, very big mistake.

I didn’t expect Trump to call out the Biden apparatus, for reckless escalation. Now that he has, it’s reasonable to suppose that such a statement might make a difference in how Russia relates to USA. Trump has started making the kind of statements which just might force us back from the precipice, and I sure hope he keeps it up. I’ve never given him credit for anything before.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Dec 14 2024 1:28 utc | 238

Look around the world and see where large, medium and small meteorites have hit. What is there? Craters, large, small, depending on the mass and speed of impact (the kinetic energy acts in the direction of impact, not as a sphere of expansion). An atomic bomb in between enlarges the “hole” spherically, acting in all directions.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:29 utc | 239

so it also can cause a Tsunami

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:31 utc | 240

Winning a war vs winning a media narrative.
The Russian military is grinding the greatest proxy army the U.S. has ever built. What used to be the largest army in Europe has over a million casualties. The U.S. has sent more than three million of its own artillery shells, and is losing the war. It also has no path to replenishing those stocks in less than a decade.
Kiev begs to be allowed into NATO. It’s ignored. To make it and its masters feel better, a handful of longer range missiles are used to make dramatic, if not terribly effective, attacks on Russian assets. The U.S. publicly blackmails Kiev with more equipment in return for rounding up more and younger men to go die at the front even though Ukraine has only lost “80,000” soldiers.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 14 2024 1:36 utc | 241

@David G Horsman
I’m at currently looking at daily reports.
Ukrainian report lists massive attack of outside Odessa, so significant damage.
For me this sounds like preparing an attack area, removing obstacles on the way to the target (encirclement of Odessa).

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:37 utc | 242

Ukraine has only lost “80,000” soldiers.
trustworthy inofficial British sources say Ukrainien lost about 400 – 500.000, what is more than France and Britain total loss together in WWI

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:42 utc | 243

Russia is at war with NATO, a state of war exists between them, right?
Or, did Putin really not say that in regrads to the firing of ATACMS and Storm Shadow?
Or, even if he did say it, do his words really not count for much?
I’m sure there is no actual quote that says Russia WILL target NATO or hit targets outside of Ukraine, but there has been talk that they could when talking about ATACMS and Oreshnik. So whilst it is true that Russia never said they would, and just because ATACMS continue to be used in that way it is not something that SHOULD cause Russia to respond as they suggested they might. So were they hoping to scare NATO off with a few choice words, or does all that talk not really count for much.
NATO invaded Ukraine with the coup of 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine eight years later, for a while Ukraine was the battleground, but then it moved beyond Ukraine and into Russia.
Maybe NATO is at war with Russia (planes, tanks, troops, missiles, assassinations, terrorist attacks, pipelines, invasion …)
But maybe Russia is at war with Ukraine, and Putin’s words don’t count for much.
De-escaltion in 2025, a freezing of the conflict, peacekeepers, boots officially on the ground?

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 1:43 utc | 244

so it also can cause a Tsunami
Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:31 utc | 240
That is an interesting thought.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 14 2024 1:44 utc | 245

Nato hits a parking lot and in return gets thousands, if not millions, of refugees that they’ll need to house and feed and clothe and more. Bye bye, there goes the dream of owning an apartment for normal people.
But hey, nato isn’t hurt a bit, right?

Posted by: Mirko | Dec 14 2024 1:48 utc | 246

German Media: General of the Donetsk Army Group deposed
The commander of the Ukrainian Donetsk Army Group, Olexander Lutsenko, has been replaced after several serious defeats in Kiev, according to consistent media reports. He will be replaced by Olexander Tarnawskyj, reports the Internet portal “Ukrajinska Prawda” citing a source in the armed forces. The new appointment has not yet been officially announced. The crisis of the Ukrainian troops in the east of the country has worsened in recent weeks. Lutsenko was responsible for the front section around the strategically important cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Kurakhove has already been partially captured by Russian troops and is about to fall. However, the Ukrainian army has already held the city longer than many experts had previously predicted.
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/02-35-Medien-General-der-Heeresgruppe-Donezk-abgesetzt–article23143824.html

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:51 utc | 247

The US would have dropped the electrical grid and taken out air defense and aviation assets on the first days of the war.
I remember hearing from the cheerleaders here how Putin was 3D chessing things with his Slavic brothers by not doing that. OK…so here we are now.
Really, it was not n-D chess. It was a mistake. The way to grasp a nettle is firmly. We’re not even talking about fireballing the population centers. Just the normal strategic air campaign that the US does in all recent wars (one of which I participated in, at a low level).
I had no clue what the hell they were doing with columns advancing on so many different axes (instead of one main one, with others as diversions). And what they were doing letting the Ukrops hang in there for months (years now) with a functioning grid and air defense and even with some aviation!

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 14 2024 1:53 utc | 248

Could a collapse like Syria happen in Ukraine? (video)

Battlefield Ukraine Russian Forces Could Take All Of UkraineMilitary and Foreign Affairs Network

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 14 2024 1:53 utc | 249

“I had no clue”
you’re right

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 1:57 utc | 250

Are we aware that -12 means -12 Celsius? In other words 14F, 18 degrees below freezing. This is not moderately cold. It is COLD!
My weather app says it’s -10C in Kiev at this moment.

Posted by: nwwoods | Dec 14 2024 1:59 utc | 251

#248
> The US would have dropped the electrical grid and taken out air defense and aviation assets on the first days of the war.
Putin didn’t want the civilians to suffer, so the grid stayed up for some time.. now that time is gone.
Air defense was taken out, and again and again… why do you think zelensky is begging for 12 more patriots, what do you think happened to the old ones?
The west/nato has never fought a war with a matched country and now are running out of artillery munitions, missles, air defense and more.

Posted by: Mirko | Dec 14 2024 2:00 utc | 252

Drive-by comment.
I think Russia will use Oreshnik freely without worrying about any US/NATO “analysis” because there is very little of the sort that can be done beyond the physics calculations (with more error bars than many will assume) and the material residue chemistry (re-ionized atomic composition compared to non-Oreshnik’ed control samples) and it won’t reveal enough to be useful.
US/NATO might not bother with any of it since it is kind of pointless.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 14 2024 2:00 utc | 253

De-escaltion in 2025, a freezing of the conflict, peacekeepers, boots officially on the ground?
Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 1:43 utc | 244
##########
What leads you to believe there will be a Ukraine in 2025?
And why would Russia allow a freeze so Ukraine can re-arm?
Whose peacekeepers on Russian soil?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 2:00 utc | 254

Could a collapse like Syria happen in Ukraine?
No, two reasons: a) Selenskyj needs the war because stay as president. b) because the western NATO will prevent it (on whar way ever)
Everything in Ukraine is focused on “holding out”

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 2:00 utc | 255

The US would have dropped the electrical grid and taken out air defense and aviation assets on the first days of the war.
Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 14 2024 1:53 utc | 248
#########
The US hasn’t fought a peer conflict since WW2.
The US cannot handle the Houthis today. LOL

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 14 2024 2:04 utc | 256

Rhadamanthus | Dec 13 2024 18:43 utc | 76
What Zelensky Peace Formula doin’? 😂

Posted by: Laurence | Dec 14 2024 2:08 utc | 257

Could a collapse like Syria happen in Ukraine? (video)
Battlefield Ukraine Russian Forces Could Take All Of Ukraine – Military and Foreign Affairs Network
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 14 2024 1:53 utc | 249
_______________________________________________________
How can the two situations be considered even remotely similar? I guess if you took away NATO, the empire and the crazy Brits, introduced tens of thousands of DPRK elite troops into the mix, then, yeah, maybe it could look the same and be over by this time next week.
I have not counted them or studied the actual wording for each, but havnt numerous European countries talked about preparing for war, against Russia? I know here in the Uk the subject keeps popping up in the media, a media that supports Nazis, champions alQaeda and cheers on a genocide. So i’m sure it really matters whether Ukie troops collapse or not.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 14 2024 2:13 utc | 258

Daily DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/48.1857745/37.3068237
Overall:
Very strong RFA advance day, taking 35.9 kmsq. Compare to NOV average pace of 23/day.
All the changes were in the Velyka Novasilka to Pokrovsk front zone (south Donetsk). More than half of the result was from pocket filling in Uspenivka. Some more pocket filling remains and likely happens soon.
RFA continues to improve its position quite close to Pokrovsk but has not started an assault yet. Nor have they taken the broad amount of territory I expected to the west to get a deep envelopment of the city. Maybe they want to clean up the south (Kurakhove and Uspenivka pocket) first. Or maybe they don’t plan to get so much of the surrounding territory before directly going after P town. We shall see.
Specific changes, S to N:
[Velyka Novasilka front]
1. 5.3 kmsq E of the villages below VN.
2. 1.1 kmsq W of the villages below VN. Pocket tightening.
[Uspenivka pocket front]
3. 1.5 kmsq in/near Sukhi Yaly.
4. 1.5 kmsq in/near Kostiantynopolske. Note this gets back a salient they had a couple days ago and lost on a counterattack (to gray, not to UFA control “blue”). Note this cuts off the paved road escape route out of the pocket.
5. 19.6 kmsq in a complex polygon at the “bottom of the sack” of the pocket. Towns of Zelenyi Hai, Yelizavetivka, and Romanivka captured. Hannivka and Uspenivka are entirely gray and likely to fall next.
6. 2.3 kmsq between Uspenivka and Dalnie.
[Lower (W flank moving) Pokrovsk front]
7. 1.7 kmsq in/near Pushkine, including town capture.
[Pokrovsk environs front]
8. 1.3 kmsq in/near Novotroitske, including town capture.
9. 0.8 kmsq E of Shevchenko.
10. 0.8 kmsq in/W of Shevchenko. Town is all red/gray, but has not fallen yet (still some gray).

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 14 2024 2:15 utc | 259

@Petri Krohn
Russian Forces Could Take All Of Ukraine
No, look the map, use geographical relief map
The best that they can reach may be to get a a strip on the Black Sea coast, as far as Romania and Moldova. The middle section Lviv – Kiev remains with the border with Belarus and Ukraine.
This remaining section is not viable as a state on its own, it will come under a western protectorate, possibly demilitarized.
For geographical reasons, Russia cannot conquer any more, it would need more than 200,000 soldiers for that, but they are needed to secure the conquered territory.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 14 2024 2:30 utc | 260

“I see many are disappointed in Russia’s “response”. For all the red lines the US and NATO continue to cross Russia and every other country in the world won’t even near the red line when it’s the other way around. That screams to me that the US military has a tech/weapon they know they cannot compete with and I’m not referring to nuclear weapons.”
Lets take a simplistic statement as a premise
Weapons kill humans
Now regard the degree of technology advances since 1945.
Now regard the amount of resources allocated for weapon development during that time period.
In my opinion the overwhelming probability is both Russia and the USA have developed weapon technologies that will demonstrate hitherto unseen effectiveness.
Your statement is correct. The escalations demonstrated by the US would seem to indicate confidence in technologies not previously seen. It also indicates that the US is willing to kill all the Russians to get their way. All the chines. Who is left? My the list seems to be large.
My belief is that we will see multiple new weapon technologies deployed by all participants in WW3 they will be exceedingly efficient and anyone of them will be sufficient to create the extinction of our species. The US military is disdainful about the sophistication of Russian weapon technologies and I think their assessment is fundamentally flawed because of their exceptionalism.
From the very beginning of Russians announcement of their new wunderwaffen my thought was whatever they are revealing was small change. In a real war you do not reveal capabilities. They revealed some in a attempt to create a deterrent.
Of course nobody knows. THe resources the USA has spent on weapons development is simply over the top. On the other hand you have the homogeneous Russian culture having endured the Pogroms of Stalin and WW1 and ww2 effecting their perception of need for weapons.
You have two cultures. The for profit weapon vendors of the US and the domestic Russian weapons creators pulling on their understanding of physics and understanding the limitations of their budget. Its a very personal thing and its no wonder that the ideas about the superiority of one culture effects the perception about weapon advancements.
how very very sad that this is where the lions share of excess resources both human and material are expended creating weapons to exterminate our species. That the event is viewed like a sporting event or a math competition. The bizarre belief that somehow their will be a winner. that a large quantity of humans will just go poof cease to exist and the world will just continue on. The bizarre belief that efficient new technology will only be deployed by one side.
Theres this thing called responsibility. We have responsibility to the children of all nations. Thats my belief. thats what being a adult means. You understand there are things you love more than indulging in force. You give that up because of understanding that you have chose to be responsible. You give that up because its nothing compared to the beautiful things in life.
Anyone with a small degree of understanding and insight understands what it will mean if the worlds covert weapon development programs are deployed. It will not be a sporting event. It will not be Rocky 3.
Lets say I am wrong. What would taking that risk be classified as? Would that be considered responsible? I mean its only the species we are talking about. whats important is riding the bomb down like a brahma bull. Thats what we want to be our legacy. Not that we cared. Not that we loved. The most important thing was killing everyone.
Im just one man. Im the minority . My assessment is most want to find out. So be it. Our legacy. Our betrayal of the creator. He gave us everything and we spat in his face. We worshiped our ideas. We could not understand the beauty snd value of the gift given us. We threw it away for notions worth nothing and we understood they were not important but we do it anyway. Theres a word for this. Insanity.

Posted by: Fred | Dec 14 2024 3:14 utc | 261

nwwoods@251…-12C is kinda nice, round these parts, last two days the high has been -22C the overnight low -32C topping out with a -49C wind chill. If your not from there, it’s cold, if you are from there…..it’s just winter. Most northern armies do winter warfare, winter survival training, not a huge issue if the soldiers have the “winter kit.”
Die warm, or die cold? Won’t matter to the guys on the LOCC, fodder burgers…….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 14 2024 3:20 utc | 262

nwwoods@251…-12C is kinda nice, round these parts, last two days the high has been -22C the overnight low -32C topping out with a -49C wind chill. If your not from there, it’s cold, if you are from there…..it’s just winter. Most northern armies do winter warfare, winter survival training, not a huge issue if the soldiers have the “winter kit.”
Die warm, or die cold? Won’t matter to the guys on the LOCC, fodder burgers…….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 14 2024 3:20 utc | 263

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:20 utc | 108
You are very welcome, aristodemos. It’s where I have always liked to live- in the midst of country folk, among whom, in spite of some hardships, I have always felt at home.

Posted by: juliania | Dec 14 2024 3:28 utc | 264

“re we aware that -12 means -12 Celsius? In other words 14F, 18 degrees below freezing. This is not moderately cold. It is COLD!
My weather app says it’s -10C in Kiev at this moment.”
Yeah its cold. Things do wierd things. Equipment does wierd things.
Get inside a structure use your brain and its not bad.
Kiev is hovering around freezing next ten days. Light rain. Ill take -12c any day with it clear vs light rain at zero if you are outside.
The dugouts both sides are using look pretty snug to me. I bet average soil temp is well above freezing. Good eats inside. Living large.
Even a snow shelter is damn comfortable with hot tea and eats.
-12 is the low we are talking about.

Posted by: Fred | Dec 14 2024 3:50 utc | 265

Ooof!
Syrsky calls Ze a clown.
https://southfront.press/im-sick-of-that-clown-syrskyi-spents-his-rage-on-zelenskys-bloody-pr-on-video/

Posted by: Suresh | Dec 14 2024 3:50 utc | 266

The natural gas situation in Ukraine is critical as of October.
The proposed December cutoff of Russian gas to Europe will have dramatic consequences for the EU as most gas is consumed in Winter. The EU has traditionally relied on Ukraine’s massive 330 TWh gas storage capacity to buffer the winter shortfall. Unfortunately for the EU, Ukraine currently only stores 82 TWh of gas, and most of this gas is stranded due to war damage to the above-ground compressor stations.
In contrast, the EU gas storage facilities are almost full, with the exception of Denmark which is only 64% full. The EU has about 1082 TWh of gas in storage with an annual consumption of 3760 TWh/year.
https://agsi.gie.eu/

Posted by: krollchem | Dec 14 2024 3:52 utc | 267

“In their own justifiable self-defence Russia is as threatening as a field mouse.”
Mua Dib?

Posted by: Fred | Dec 14 2024 3:55 utc | 268

Wonder what is the threshold of pain for Ukrainians,civil and military before they come for overlords
Wouldn’t be surprised with a Chechen like relationship after smo

Posted by: Michael J | Dec 14 2024 4:04 utc | 269

Most northern armies do winter warfare, winter survival training, not a huge issue if the soldiers have the “winter kit.”
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 14 2024 3:20 utc | 263
Unless its NATO, then they just get frozen pee pee….?
Funny story, was deployed to Queensland in jungle fatigues in the early 80s. Typical high temperature was 10 deg C. The Aussies felt pity on us after a week and issued warm gear and sleeping bags. Apparently, the top Brass thought Queensland was warmer than NZ where there had already been frost bite injuries.
Nothing sets you up to face life as being screwed by the experts, eh?

Posted by: Suresh | Dec 14 2024 4:07 utc | 270

The points you make are valid and feasible. An unstoppable hypersonic missile poses a real threat until the jewed-up West figures out how to stop one 🙂
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 14 2024 0:04 utc | 212
If you want to stop something fast and accurate you need something faster and more accurate..
I’ll go get coffee while the west work that out.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 14 2024 4:31 utc | 271

Re: wp007 (243):
The exact figures are unclear, but most estimates put French military fatalities in the War of 1914-18 at about 1.5 million, the British at about 800,000.

Posted by: Bernard Davis | Dec 14 2024 4:39 utc | 272

Has anyone here read “The Art of the Deal”, by one Donald J. Trump? (I haven’t).
A serious thought occurs to me that he must have some template way of thinking and dealing which makes him the legend negotiator he thinks he is … in his own mind.
So, what we may be hearing from him at present is the foreplay of the dealing he thinks he can make between Zelensky and Putin.
Only one big problem, Don. All your previous “deals” were between you and one other, a competitor, NOT as a mediator between waring parties or someone 15 years your senior in geopolitics.
And another problem. You ain’t even started dealing with the Russian Federation yet. It is not some twobit NY real estate mogul, nor a deluded little man in green fatigues who has sucked on Joe Biden’s tit for 2.8 years.
The thought also occurs that since his election, he HAS BEEN sneakily softening up Zelensky for an easy capitulation into Trump’s Plan. But there’ll be no softening up of VVP. The Way of the Art of the Trump Deal is a dead duck in this far bigger game.
But I’m curious to know his past business tactics.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 4:44 utc | 273

I read that everyone pretends not to understand,
indeed those who don’t understand or pretend not to understand accuse those who raise the topic of being a troll,
the fact in question is: has Putin threatened or has he not threatened several times to hit those really responsible for the long-range missile launches?
If the answer is yes, we can say that his are just empty threats, and the bombings in Ukraine are only necessary actions that have nothing to do with Putin’s threats.
I conclude by saying that if we want to talk about trolls, the trolls are the ones who accuse those who raise the issue

Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 14 2024 4:52 utc | 274

But I’m curious to know his past business tactics.
Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 4:44 utc | 277
It doesn’t matter, domestically he wins and either does it within the rules of the system or outside them and doesn’t get caught / contains the threat.
As you say, VVP is a different story. The world has changed, and VVP is gonna finish what he started. Unlike the westerners, I don’t think he’d start something unless he could finish it.
It’s interesting to see how some situations change, and I’m thinking like bankruptcy, slowly, then all at once.
That’s how I see this playing out. Slowly slowly, but then very unexpectedly, almost out of the blue it’s all over.
Something happens like there isn’t enough gas in the west for a few weeks and things get turned off.
Then it would all get super real super fast and VVP would just walk across and take what he wants.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 14 2024 4:54 utc | 275

The EU has about 1082 TWh of gas in storage with an annual consumption of 3760 TWh/year.
https://agsi.gie.eu/
Posted by: krollchem | Dec 14 2024 3:52 utc | 268
How much of that 3760 is used December – March though? If it’s half, and it’s gonna be close to that amount then there are serious problems in about February….

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 14 2024 5:05 utc | 276

I mean it’s absurd how “normal people” consider what’s happening.
At the beginning of the SMO, all the virtue signallers living in a road off Hampstead Heath got together and turned off their heating for an hour every night to “send a message to Pootin”
And seriously, they really believe it.
These are wealthy people who are ostensibly intelligent enough to afford their expensive properties but they’re total morons and that goes for the bulk of society.
They really are THAT DELUDED, AND THAT OUT OF TOUCH, we’re talking total societal meltdown and nervous breakdowns en masse if the gas actually got turned off, even for a few days.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Dec 14 2024 5:13 utc | 277

There is a belief nato will instigate a false flag in their territory before January 20th to leave President Trump with no peace options. Is Odessa the trigger for that or general fear of total Ukraine capitulation. Or something else

Posted by: Michael J | Dec 14 2024 5:29 utc | 278

@ Philly | Dec 14 2024 3:51 utc | 267 quote –
”The Mouse that Roared.” –
reminds me of your posts, lol.. i will skip them here forward..

Posted by: james | Dec 14 2024 5:46 utc | 279

Posted by: Fred | Dec 13 2024 19:04 utc | 96
“I grew up poor and finding ways to stay warm in winter is just part of life. Everyone found ways. The Ukranians will find ways.
Maybe the Germans would freeze rather than find ways that dont fit there ideas about right and wrong ways of doing things. The rest of the world will do what they have to.
You can get a place up to freezing pretty easy from -12. the -5 you mention is not much fun but it sure beats -12.
A rocket stove burning twigs will get even a poorly insulated room above -5. It can be built from bricks or concrete blocks. Above freezing is livable if not fun. Feeding twigs into a rocket stove is tedious. It beats the alternative. People find ways. They dont just sit on their ass and freeze. Mostly.
I hope the Ukrainian people stay warm. I bet they will. I hope all people of the world have their basic needs met. That is justice. These stupid wars are owned by the elites. People just want to get by. They do get by.”
Can you provide a little context? There’s a big difference between trying to keep warm in Atlanta vs Fairbanks. Where did you grow up poor? Also, a rocket stove will work in a pinch, but you need to figure out ventilation if you don’t want to get asphyxiated. You need something with a stove pipe.

Posted by: Paranaense | Dec 14 2024 5:51 utc | 280

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 19:15 utc | 103
“You play the hand you’re dealt, not the one you wished that you had.”
You go to war with the army you have, not the one you wish you had.

Posted by: Paranaense | Dec 14 2024 5:59 utc | 281

Oreshnik can pinpoint the decision makers in enemy countries. So it’s a psychological weapon to sharpen the awareness of stupid, complacent decision makers with delusions of totalitarian hegemony.
I’m not surprised Blinken’s feet rarely touch the ground. He has to keep moving fast enough to escape his own lies.
Do these trigger-happy trolls on MoA ever stop to think how Putin manages to make a tactical retreat from Syria without the losing control of Russian interests. He doesn’t infuriate his antagonists with blatant lies like Blinken. No does he attack his antagonists with the superweapons at his disposal.
Because if he did use Oreshniks on idiots like Blinken, it would be the end of the world. Is he a wussy for using his brain, when his antagonists like Blinken have none?

Posted by: Giyane | Dec 14 2024 6:27 utc | 282

One of NATO’s hobby-horses is “control of the narrative”: shaping the public opinion through manipulation of news. What others call trolling I see as trying to control the narrative. So – does it work?
Before this war, my opinion of Ukraine was limited to some tropes – Ilya Repin’s Kossack painting; some typical foods and soups; the Zaporozhets car, Antonov planes, companies like Yushmash or Khartron. Today, the impression I have is of throwing money in a bottomless pit. War or peace, there is no way to convince me to invest money in a Ukraine-related project, not today and not tomorrow.
Back in 2022, there were Ukrainian flags everywhere in Europe, and many wanted to help Ukrainian refugees. Today, it is difficult to see even one Ukrainian flag. And refugees – opinion seems mixed.
Later, when this war is over, there will be time to analyze.

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 14 2024 7:16 utc | 283

Posted by: Philly | Dec 14 2024 4:54 utc | 280
I watched it, thanks.
Omg. Very damaging.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 14 2024 7:26 utc | 284

Many thanks Dr. Rob.
This has been quite a busy week and it is good to have your summary of events.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Dec 13 2024 19:11 utc | 100
Yes – a very busy week, Cheers.

Posted by: The Busker | Dec 14 2024 7:51 utc | 285

Since Russian Federation didnt launch another Oreshnik to the newest provocation as the west assholes expected, they (the west) have now successfully tested the Mighty Dark Eagle rocket as their response to the now not so mighty Oreshnik.
The western MSM narratives are so predictive my 11 year old daughter is catching up on it. Haha.

Posted by: Jzo | Dec 14 2024 7:53 utc | 286

I read yr update, thanks for linking to it.
You might like to know that, back in the 1970s when Kaja Kallas was a child growing up in Soviet Estonia, her daddy Siim Kallas was a senior govt finance bureaucrat. He was head of a major savings bank in Estonia for several years. The Kallas family was part of a privileged Soviet Estonian nomenklatura class. With that context, you wonder if KK is nostalgic for those halcyon childhood days.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Dec 13 2024 20:03 utc | 131
Yes – I heard about her Dad She also talks about a sense of freedom following the collapse of the Soviet Union – which I believe is disingenuous.

Posted by: The Busker | Dec 14 2024 7:58 utc | 287

There is a belief nato will instigate a false flag in their territory before January 20th to leave President Trump with no peace options. Is Odessa the trigger for that or general fear of total Ukraine capitulation. Or something else
Posted by: Michael J | Dec 14 2024 5:29 utc | 283

If you’ve been following the OMG! “Drones over US/UK military bases” +NY +NJ saga,
my prediction for false flag is:
(1) currently we’re in the “normalization” phase. Look! Iranian drones are all over the East Coast of USA, and the Most Powerful Military in the World is completely helpless to stop them!
(2) At inauguration ceremony on 20-Sep-2025, when both Trump and Vance are on stage together: a “car-sized” drone full of explosives will solve Deep-State-Angst once and for all.
(3) Marco Rubio will be installed as President, ensuring Deep-State’s Mission Continuity.
(4) War against Iran in this darkest hour of Our Democracy, will be declared within 24 hours.
(5) War in support of Paragon-of-Democracy Ukraine will continue to escalate.

Posted by: retroflecks | Dec 14 2024 8:14 utc | 288

inauguration on 20-Jan-2025.

Posted by: retroflecks | Dec 14 2024 8:18 utc | 289

“there is little discussion about how this technology changes how our leaders perceive the balance of advantages to have been altered.
Posted by: frithguild | Dec 14 2024 0:47 utc | 222”
Who can tell how insane psychopaths perceive anything?

Posted by: Mary | Dec 14 2024 8:19 utc | 290

Posted by: Paranaense | Dec 14 2024 5:51 utc | 285
Loss of power is more than just loss of heat, esp in cities.
Loss of water. Loss of transportation when you can’t pump the gas & trains aren’t working. Even loss of access to food if/when it’s ruined & when stores can’t re-supply.

Posted by: Mary | Dec 14 2024 8:35 utc | 291

Above should have been aimed at Fred. I was poor in Massachusetts during blizzard of 78.
Posted by: Fred | Dec 13 2024 19:04 utc | 96
“I grew up poor and finding ways to stay warm in winter is just part of life. Everyone found ways. The Ukranians will find ways.

Posted by: Mary | Dec 14 2024 8:37 utc | 292

“Woe betide this wave of refugees if it arrives in Poland or Germany…”
And what if it arrives in russia?
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 18:09 utc | 47
Put them here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zGP6yakn3dA
Plenty of these in Russia.

Posted by: Jack M | Dec 14 2024 8:38 utc | 293

retroflecks @ 293
Most farfetched thing I’ve read in a while. Sign me up.
I think you figured out the NJ drone menace, I figured it was self contained propaganda to light the runway for Trump’s attack on Iran, but they need an actual casus belli 9-11 style for that, so yeh, the NJ drone show is probably prepping the mind, laying the stress, for an actual drone attack somewhere on the east coast. Can’t force fill a mind with shit all at once, you have to dribble it in a little at a time, let it ferment compost style.
Maybe this time the Deep State will hit the newly built Freedom Tower, not bring it down just shatter a few windows for screams and chaos, bit of flames and smoke, sirens wailing, firemen rushing, NYC shut down. Shits and giggles for the Deep State, but would be plenty to trigger 9-11 programmed emotions in the USA and the entire Golden Billion, sufficient to get all the sheep to bleat in unison for war on Iran. This time people are more cynical, if it happens it’ll proceed very fast, giving no time for introspection or retrospection.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 8:38 utc | 294

Putin is Gorbatschow 2.0 – after Putin Russia will be a small region around Moscow..

Posted by: Joe911 | Dec 14 2024 8:51 utc | 295

Posted by: retroflecks | Dec 14 2024 8:14 utc | 293
God forbid
This time drones are over Ramstein base in Germany
https://youtu.be/TbLC0ncAX6Q?si=btmJrHqLcdW4CymQ

Posted by: Michael J | Dec 14 2024 9:10 utc | 296

The best ways to check if the lastr Russian attacs had any effect on Ukraine is to visit Ukro websites and ckheck their TV. If they still function then Russian attacks on energy infrastructure were in vain.
There are also no huge waves of refugees in direction of EU. Ukrainians still want to stay fight and die for Western interests.
The only conclusionnis that Russia has not achieved mych.

Posted by: vargas | Dec 14 2024 9:28 utc | 297

Michael J @ 301

This time drones are over Ramstein base in Germany

That’s a good place for them, I’ve been to Jersey, ain’t shit in Jersey.
They are stressing the sheeple, they are going to sour the milk, they must want that too.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 14 2024 9:38 utc | 298

There are also no huge waves of refugees in direction of EU. Ukrainians still want to stay fight and die for Western interests.
The only conclusionnis that Russia has not achieved mych.
Posted by: vargas | Dec 14 2024 9:28 utc | 302
.
.
Nonsense!
As far as the Ukrainian TV stations are concerned, like the refugees who are STILL missing, YOU are just stupid!
TV stations mostly use emergency power as a propaganda machine.
How long did it take for the “waves of refugees” in Syria to get moving?
And we are not talking about direct attacks on civilians, BUT on life support… it will take time, and UNFORTUNATELY that includes the first deaths from frost and hunger, first small children, etc.
Then you know better, the MOB will start moving, there is no switch! It is a maelstrom of word of mouth and fear of the weather below 10 to 15 degrees, minus 25 is not necessary for that…
.
.
Such nonsense can only be written by someone who has NEVER had to flee, be it from winter or the system.
Who has never had to sleep outside in just 0 degrees, who has never had to spend the night in the mud with wet boots.

Posted by: ossi | Dec 14 2024 9:39 utc | 299

The best ways to check if the lastr Russian attacs had any effect on Ukraine is to visit Ukro websites and ckheck their TV. If they still function then Russian attacks on energy infrastructure were in vain.
.
.
Such nonsense…
Where are the websites hosted…who ensures accessibility and energy for the servers…Ukraine…such rubbish, no idea! Is it possible that the websites are on servers in Europe in England or the Canary Islands?

Posted by: Ich bin Schlau | Dec 14 2024 9:43 utc | 300