Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 13, 2024
Russia Retaliates For ATACMS Strike – Improves Trolling

Those who were waiting for another Oreshnik strike, in response to the U.S. ATACMS attack on a strategic air plane factory in the Russian city of Taganrog, will be disappointed by this:

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On 11 December 2024, from the from the territory of Ukraine the AFU delivered a strike by six U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the military airfield near Taganrog.

In response to the use of U.S.-made long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces delivered mass strikes by high-precision air- and sea-based weapons and attack drones at Ukrainian fuel and power infrastructure facilities ensuring operation of the defence industry.

The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.

The 'response' has been successful. There is then no additional need to follow up with another Oreshnik strike.

Ukraine has confirmed the success of the strike:

Russia deals 'massive blow' to Ukraine's thermal power plants, energy company says

Russia targeted DTEK's thermal power plants during a mass aerial attack on Dec. 13, damaging their equipment, the company said in a statement.

Moscow's forces launched around 90 missiles and 200 drones in one of its largest mass attacks on Ukraine's power grid as the winter is setting in.

"DTEK thermal power plants were attacked. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties," the company said. The plants' equipment was "seriously damaged," with energy sector employees already working on repairs.

Interestingly the strikes hit mostly in west-Ukraine where electricity and gas from the EU is imported into Ukraine (machine translation):

There is serious damage. According to our source on the energy market, the Burshtyn and Prydniprovska TPPs were damaged (which DTEK indirectly confirmed by reporting equipment damage at one of its thermal power plants), key substations in Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and other regions, and power lines throughout the country.

Ukrenergo has already announced tougher light restrictions. According to the current situation, there are currently three out of six outage queues. "This means that half the country is without electricity," says energy market expert Oleg Popenko. In Odessa, additional restrictions were introduced. "The situation there is very serious, people will sit for some time without electricity for 7-11 hours," Popenko said.

But the risks have increased not only in electricity, but also in gas and heating, as the Russian Federation has again hit the gas infrastructure.

"If there are interruptions in gas supply, the situation with electricity (since TPP and CHPP operate on gas) and heating will sharply worsen. At minus 10 degrees, which meteorologists promise us for a day, the average panel can stand without heating for 36-40 hours, then the system will need to be completely repaired. That is, high-rise buildings can become uninhabitable," says Popenko.

Ukraine had to lower the output of 5 of its 9 nuclear power plants as some relevant substations got it. The unified electricity system of the country is falling apart into islands of generation and consumption. Areas with little generation capacity and high consumption (Odessa) will have the biggest problems.


In comments 'Drifter' mentions a Russian quip about North Korean soldiers in Russia:

Telegram post from 12 hours ago – Yandex machine translation from Russian. Voenkor Kotenok posted the first report (I have found) suggesting actual (limited) use of elite Korean special forces in Kursk a week ago.

Military commander Kotenok

Plekhovo, which was liberated on December 6 in the Kursk direction, was indeed taken by Korean SSR fighters. We passed 2 kilometers through a minefield, broke into the settlement with lightning speed and destroyed the occupation contingent of the ukrovermakht. The operation took about 2.5 hours. They took their "200" and "300" with them.

According to some information, there were no prisoners. They will not take it in the future.

@voenkorKotenok

Nice trolling I'd say, with -of course- zero evidence.

Funny how some people are falling for it.

Comments

I see many are disappointed in Russia’s “response”. For all the red lines the US and NATO continue to cross Russia and every other country in the world won’t even near the red line when it’s the other way around. That screams to me that the US military has a tech/weapon they know they cannot compete with and I’m not referring to nuclear weapons.

Posted by: TonyK | Dec 13 2024 19:11 utc | 101

you can all keep on arguing day long on the technicalities of Putin’s bombing Ukraine. but the reality is slowly creeping up..putin is losing credibility.

Posted by: andreweed | Dec 13 2024 19:14 utc | 102

NATO attacks Russia. Russia attacks Ukraine. NATO attacks Russia again. Russia attacks Ukraine again. That’s deterrence? Isn’t repeating the same thing over again and expecting a different result the definition of insanity?
Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 19:08 utc | 98
############
Ukraine is a proxy. Disarm the proxy and disable the attack.
Russia is past deterrence. It is now focused on establishing a maximalist vision of success.
Remember, early on they were negotiating in Minsk and Turkiye to end this before Summer 2022.
You play the hand you’re dealt, not the one you wished that you had.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 19:15 utc | 103

Indeed, spread by russians. Who use them for Putin and his mates. But you get your fun where it tickles you 🙁
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 18:50 utc | 85

“never go full retard!”
you never dissapoint.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 13 2024 19:16 utc | 104

Norwegian@1853 Dec 13
Here in the center of North America, the ground began to freeze on November 20. We have had light, but persistent snowfalls several times, on occasion preceded by rain. More recently the temperature pattern can best be described as schizophrenic where the last couple days were steadily below zero F. Today, a bit above and into the night hours. Next two days will be right around freezing point to slightly above.
Yes, there are natural fluctuations climatologically. However, all dedicated researchers realize that various air forces are heavily chemtrailing the skies, while at the same time various low frequency radio installations are messing with the ionosphere in order to engender global cooling. This interference with natural patterns may be metaphorically compared with “playing with fire”. Those deep insiders who are committing these stunts CANNOT continually control weather patterns.
Meanwhile the propaganda matrix has fooled overedumacted gullibles to the insane beliefs that carbon dioxide is the problem and are even attempting to reduce the emissions of cow farts.
Manipulation of consciousness by the ruling financier elites is calculated to stem, or at least delay their ultimate demise…as the number of “unbelievers” continues to mount…particularly amongst the younger generations.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:16 utc | 105

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 19:09 utc | 99
“I lose power for a couple of days at a time every year. I welcome it.”
Just like millions of Ukrainians. It is so pervasive here. I, and russians can take this do that, but Ukrainians, of course not. When reality is, those fightning for their very existence can take much more than those cheering for their favourite headchoppers and rapists from the sidelines.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:19 utc | 106

Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 19:08 utc | 98
You fall into the same trap that many other posters, here and elsewhere, fall into; that is trying to apply Western doctrinal and strategic thinking to Russia and its approach.
I try not to comment very often on what I think Russia should do, I am not part of Russian General Staff. Instead, I observe what Russia actually does and apply that, together with information from other (at first sight) indirect sources, to form a viewpoint, and that viewpoint is that the West, at least the media-consuming sheeple therein, has no idea exactly how much trouble it is in.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 19:19 utc | 107

Juliana@1853 Dec 13
Thank you for inviting electricity deprived people in the cities of Ukraine, to do what the Mayans accomplished many centuries ago. They left their amazing cities and en masse headed back into the hinterlands. Ultimately, this will become a template for awakening people right across the planet, most particularly here in the U$$A, as centralization and urbanization has been highly effective in depriving people of any sense of community.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:20 utc | 108

than those cheering for their favourite headchoppers and rapists from the sidelines.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:19 utc | 106

is that why you cheer for the “ukros” and jihadis?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 13 2024 19:20 utc | 109

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 13 2024 19:20 utc | 109
Where have I cheered for jihadis?

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:23 utc | 110

putin is losing credibility.
Posted by: andreweed | Dec 13 2024 19:14 utc | 102
#########
I can’t wait until Trump tests this premise with the alien-technology-derived Wunder Waffe that TonyK | Dec 13 2024 19:11 UTC thinks that Putin is afraid of.
I find the habit of some Westerners to imagine fantastic new copes and fully believe in them to be very humorous.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 19:23 utc | 111

Andreweed @1914 Dec 13
Evidently you have not been keeping up with developments on the battlefront. Ukrainian units are being driven into cauldrons centering on larger towns and cities. Envelopment of those hard positions means that the UAF forces, overstretched and undermanned…are inevitably forced to retreat, further and further away from the heavily industrialized and urbanized Donbass region and out into the wide open steepelands, where the establishment of redoubts is somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible.
Wake up and smell the coffee.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:25 utc | 112

For those who don’t think lack of basic utilities is a big deal, try going this entire weekend without flushing your toilet and get back to us on Monday how things went. I am not even challenging you to go without heat, electricity and Internet, just the toilet flush.
Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 13 2024 18:55 utc | 91
Coming from a part of the world that requires us to have a stand by generator and a wood stove to make it through the winter what you do is fill up the bathtub with water and use that water to manually flush the toilet. Of course that works for the first few days … water pumps generally work on electricity so … .
Wait until pipes start to freeze and rupture in high rise buildings. Then when the pipes thaw you have a whole other set of problems far worse than flushing your toilet. The EU could have one hell of a refugee problem this winter.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 13 2024 19:26 utc | 113

And only the delusional would call Ukrainians ‘headchoppers’. Chechens, forced to fight for russia are another story.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:27 utc | 114

TonyK@1911 Dec 13
Please give us some details on those Western “high-tech weapons” which have frightened the Russians into holding back. We are all ears…and eyes. So come out with it. We are waiting.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:29 utc | 115

Membrum macerated by the Bris@1927 Dec 13
Explain how those Chechens are “forced to fight for Russia:” From all the accounts I’ve accessed, it appears that their warriors are quite highly motivated.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:31 utc | 116

A Russian on FB was saying it’s -23 outside!!!!!

Posted by: Gerry Bell | Dec 13 2024 19:31 utc | 117

@aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:16 utc | 105
Winter temperatures her is mostly a roller coaster above/below freezing. This is the last 30 days in my garden https://postimg.cc/xNjYyZvj
I don’t buy any claims of “successful” man made climate manipulation. My comment on cold climate climate in combination with attacks on Russia is true though. Napoleon’s attack on Russia in 1812 happened at the time of the Dalton Grand Solar minimum, excellently visualized in the Minard diagram
Napoleon’s Disastrous Russian Campaign of 1812-1813 (By Charles Minard, 1861)

Napoleon crossed the Neman River in Poland with 422,000 men. By the time he got to Moscow, his Grande Armée had been reduced to 100,000 from constant battle and attrition. The Russians practiced slash and burn, leaving nothing for Napoleon’s forces to subsist on. The French army retreated during the onset of the Russian winter and returned to the Neman River with only 10,000 men. The chart shows temperatures dropping from 0º to -30º celsius throughout the retreat. Of particular devasation was the crossing of the Berezina River at -20º. He lost 22,000 men on that crossing alone.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 13 2024 19:34 utc | 118

It’s true that the West is going through some trouble but it’s certainly not Putin’s fault
just as it is certain that the West must laugh out loud seeing Putin continually get slapped in the face,
someone says: Putin responds to the launch of long-range missiles by damaging Ukrainian electricity lines, yes but 50% are still functioning just as the railways are functioning, as are the highways and bridges, the same thing as ports and airports,
in short, a great joke, as well as the threat to hit those who launched the missiles,
if it weren’t for the dead this would be a joke war.
https://youtu.be/mxW5F4N1U8c?si=GIHZUeZP9fNCvXC8

Posted by: Cagliostro | Dec 13 2024 19:34 utc | 119

I”f Russia does not want to escalate to war with NATO then it needs to accept these “pinprick” attacks from NATO as a cost of war. Claiming the attacks will be punished then going after the Ukraine military, which has no say in the matter, doesn’t do much for Russian credibility.”
Exactly. And as far as credibility- this isnt a couple of teenagers in a pushing match with the girls watching. This is nation statres with unimanagle amounts of destructive power. They know what they are capable of. To say they have to destroy everthing to maintain their “rep” is insane.
Is there really any doubt that Russia will act if it comes to the gravest extreme? Nor will they compromise their ability to do so.
Even the Topol Ms they have given NK alone assure their can be no decapitation strike. Thats just a teeny tiny piece.
Russias problem is not blowing up the world. They can kill the world many many times over in unique and sophisticated ways.
The risk for Russia is being goaded into a response that can be construed as disproportionate. It may happen. Russia does not want that because they are sane.
Russia may not start it but they will finish it. Ideas that deterence will be created by starting the chain of events that lead to the end of the world are not logical. They are based on the idea that theit is required to show the will for destruction. That Russia must be as stupid and reckless as their opponents trying to force will by demonstrating insanity.
Luckily Russia is not a little boy that lusts for spilt blood. They are a powerful nation well aware of their destructive capabilities with a sane and well educated man in charge. Thank god.
If it comes to it they will lay it down. Period. Its the end of everything. They avoid that because they are sane. that doesnt mean they wont lay it down. did they not lay it down in WW2? What is wrong with people? Thank god the morons here are not in charge but the responsible adults in Russia.

Posted by: Fred | Dec 13 2024 19:35 utc | 120

NATO attacks Russia then Russia bombs Ukraine and claims it punished NATO for the initial attack. A bit disingenuous, don’t you think?
If Russia does not want to escalate to war with NATO then it needs to accept these “pinprick” attacks from NATO as a cost of war. Claiming the attacks will be punished then going after the Ukraine military, which has no say in the matter, doesn’t do much for Russian credibility.
Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 19:08 utc | 98
Yes, NATO attacks Russia and then Russia retaliates, but the retaliations don’t effect the front lines. This is similar to the Syrian army with its enemies. And we know what eventually happened to Syria. Russia needs to be more assertive and dictating in the fighting, instead of just reacting in “revenge” and it not making a dent in the big picture.

Posted by: MiniMO | Dec 13 2024 19:35 utc | 121

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:31 utc | 116
Highly motivated to stay behind their screens to continue their tik tok war 🙂 For certain, Chechnya is going its own way some day.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:36 utc | 122

Evidently you have not been keeping up with developments on the battlefront. Ukrainian units are being driven into cauldrons centering on larger towns and cities. Envelopment of those hard positions means that the UAF forces, overstretched and undermanned…are inevitably forced to retreat, further and further away from the heavily industrialized and urbanized Donbass region and out into the wide open steepelands, where the establishment of redoubts is somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 13 2024 19:25 utc | 112
lets wait when peskov will announce putin is setting another line.. next time it is an “infra red” line.

Posted by: andreweed | Dec 13 2024 19:37 utc | 123

Putin y Rusia están librando una guerra contra Ucrania y la Otan. pero increíblemente los comentaristas de este foro se la pasan hasta el cansancio dándole sugerencias y menospreciándolo por no hacer lo que ellos piensan.
Hay que tener mas cordura. La guerra no la estamos librando nosotros. tampoco tenemos la capacidad para planear el rumbo de las batallas.
Dediquémonos a lo nuestro y dejen a Putin continuar con su guerra. Por favor, no le quiten la concentración con sus sugerencias.

Posted by: Manuel V | Dec 13 2024 19:44 utc | 124

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:14 utc | 6

Absolutely, you took the words out of my keyboard!
By “western” machoism standards, you always have to raise the stakes to show you’re not a pussy, consequences be damned!
They find it more important to “live fast, die young and be a nice corpse”, that’s how far their collective deduction skills go… 🙂

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Dec 13 2024 19:46 utc | 125

Blackout on December 14: schedules will be valid almost all day
On Saturday, December 14, the schedule of hourly blackouts for the population will be valid from 00: 00 to 22: 00. Power engineers will use one and two queues of disconnections of consumers
This is reported by the press service of the National Energy Company “Ukrenergo”, reports RegioNews .
So, on December 14, the time of application and scope of restrictions will be as follows::
for domestic consumers:00: 00-13: 00-one outage queue; 13: 00-17: 00-two outage queues; 17: 00-22: 00-one outage queue;
for industry and business: 00: 00-24: 00 – application of power limitation schedules.
“The reason for the introduction of restrictions is damage to power facilities as a result of Russian missile and drone attacks in November-December,” the report says.
Power engineers ask consumers not to turn on several powerful devices at the same time when the light appears on schedule.
Recall that most units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants have reduced capacity during a massive missile attack by Russia on December 13.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1734108183-vidklyuchennya-svitla-14-grudnya-grafiki-diyatimut-mayzhe-vsyu-dobu (via translation add-on.)
-12°C? Isn’t human culture supposed to be nine hot meals from anarchy?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 19:49 utc | 126

“Study: 4 out of 5 trolls are regular MSNBC viewers over 80 years of age”
Posted by: nwwoods | Dec 13 2024 17:19 utc | 9
Lol. Cite!?! If you said 60-80 I would believe it. I DO believe it. I know a one. Still watches Rachael Maddow. Yikes.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Dec 13 2024 19:53 utc | 127

Six energy infrastructure facilities in Lviv region hit during morning missile attack, says local Gauleiter
▪️”Each facility has a different level of damage. There were fires – at the moment, they have all been localized and extinguished,” he said.
▪️After this, Ukraine requested electricity imports in excess of 13.4 thousand MW per hour from five neighboring countries, Ukrenergo reported

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/115304

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 13 2024 19:57 utc | 128

117 – Where in Russia? If it’s Siberia, they’re probably wearing T-shirts at that temperature at this time of year. If it’s European Russia, yes, it is cold.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 13 2024 19:57 utc | 129

@WJ | Dec 13 2024 17:56 utc | 36
>>Somebody make this make sense to me.
Perhaps some things cannot be made sense of by finding the right words–because they truly are senseless. But some observations.
1. The big question is now settled, just look at the mood in this thread. NATO periodically firing missiles into Russia is now the New Normal; this will gradually escalate. But Russia striking something in Poland? “You can’t be serious, that’d be WWIII!” So NATO has kept its primacy, and Russia is a subordinate power. For all their tough talk, (pro-)Russians now agree.
2. With gradually escalating missile strikes, the war may become politically uncomfortable for the Kremlin, in which case they’ll want an expedient exit.
3. The details of the ground war depend on whether Kiev can continue to mobilize. Hard to predict how the Ukies politics will play out, but Western pressure to get on with it will only increase. Russia is somehow unwilling to interfere with the TCC recruiters. Sloppy but large-scale training in Ukraine itself also seems to be allowed by Russia, for whatever reason.
4. If Kiev has the meat, then this isn’t remotely over. Sinkovka took a year; Chasov Yar is taking a year; Volchansk may take a year. And these are all small places. (Contrast with the SAA to see how a real collapse looks.)
5. Combining 2. and 4., a freeze of the conflict seems quite likely to me, also because this is what Putin always does when the going gets tough. NATO is also saying openly that it wants a freeze, so we should assume that all these provocations are geared towards that goal, at least in Washington’s eyes.
6. Moscow isn’t monolithic, but the political side seems to be eager to negotiate with Trump. But what leverage do they think they have to get much more than a freeze?
7. To get from A to B, the Dark Throne may give Moscow further attitude adjustment. Say, eviction from Tartous, taking Russian servicemembers captive in Transnistria, and sending European “peacekeepers” to the Dniepr, which Russia won’t dare touch (though the tough talk will be off the scale).
8. I’ve become very skeptical about this narrative “Of course we can always commit another half million troops, and get a military victory quickly.” Where is the evidence? Where is the cavalry? If Russia could’ve won within three years–wouldn’t they have done it?
9. So the only way to get more leverage over the West may be to weaponize the winter, turn off the heat, and send 15 million refugees towards the EU. That’d get people’s attention, though doubtful that the US itself would care that much. And there’s no sugarcoating, this would be Israel-levels of punishment of the civilian population. As things go now, does it even help them that they get killed only after they’re mobilized? At least for the men, they’re still just as dead as the Gazans.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 13 2024 20:01 utc | 130

Rob Campbell / Busker @ 82:
I read yr update, thanks for linking to it.
You might like to know that, back in the 1970s when Kaja Kallas was a child growing up in Soviet Estonia, her daddy Siim Kallas was a senior govt finance bureaucrat. He was head of a major savings bank in Estonia for several years. The Kallas family was part of a privileged Soviet Estonian nomenklatura class. With that context, you wonder if KK is nostalgic for those halcyon childhood days.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Dec 13 2024 20:03 utc | 131

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Dec 13 2024 20:01 utc | 130
So much wibble in this post I don’t know where to start…
Actually, I can’t be bothered debunking that mess point by point, life is too short…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 132

Within 24 hours, pipes begin to freeze and burst. Heat and water cannot just be turned back on after that. Buildings that do not have their plumbing drained or have antifreeze added quickly enough will be uninhabitable for months at best.
Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 13 2024 18:20 utc | 55
There is no panic in the West about the wave of Ukro refugees due to the lack of electricity. Maybe we shall see it one day and then I shall believe that Russia is really fighting.
Russia never dares to destroy 750 KV el. network in Ukraine as it cannot be repaired. What Russia does is destroying 350 KV network that Ukros manage to repair in a day. So Putin is just pretending.

Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 133

131 – They prefer to talk as though life in the Soviet Union was some sort of hell and that it’s all gravy now. It’s what the Yanks and EU want to hear. Now they’re “free”. If KK has any nostalgia she will keep it to herself.

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 13 2024 20:09 utc | 134

“For those who don’t think lack of basic utilities is a big deal, try going this entire weekend without flushing your toilet and get back to us on Monday how things went. I am not even challenging you to go without heat, electricity and Internet, just the toilet flush.”
poop coming out of ass did not begin with the toilet. How about the multitude of countries with open sewars going directly to the river. somone should tell them the world has come to a end as they pull up their dhoti and take a dump in front of god and everyone.
Understanding infrastructure that allows responsible accountability for waste management behooves every human as does understanding our energy needs.
Poop coming out of ass is easily dealt with in emergency situation with a 5 gallon bucket a little dirt or sawdust.In high population areas there are larger concerns. Waste management is indeed a very critical part of human habitation but not a issue of immediate survival. Water availability is the most important in terms of infrastructure failures,
Electricity cessation has psychological effects that are significant.
Where people are poor lack of acess to infrastructure is dealt with 24-7.
Infrastructure is a wonderful thing that benefits humans greatly. Its destruction is a grave matter and reflection on it is part of the understanding that war is inappropriate. People can and do get by without it. The legions of homless people alone attest to that. That doesnt make it desirable but The idea that people will just stop pooping because they cant flush a toilet is a argument I would not expect from you William.
T

Posted by: Fred | Dec 13 2024 20:10 utc | 135

Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 133
Dima just said 50% of Ukraine has no power.
Dima further stated that 5 of 9 NPPS had to r Duce power output due to not enough downstream capacity. That implies some serious issues.
You calling him a liar?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 13 2024 20:11 utc | 136

Well, since the ATACMs strike accomplished little or nothing, and the Russian strike caused Ukraine serious problems, it would seem obvious that there was no need to show off with Mach 11 missiles….
War is not a kids game…

Posted by: pyrrhus | Dec 13 2024 20:16 utc | 137

@ Fred | Dec 13 2024 19:35 utc | 120
exactly.. thanks…
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 132
one has to train themselves to skip over posts by those who continue to repeat themselves endlessly.. good luck with that!

Posted by: james | Dec 13 2024 20:20 utc | 138

Destroying Civilian infrastructure is collective punishment. Russia avoids it because they understand war. Because they have been victims. Because their head is on straight. They never wanted Ukraine to be a wasteland. The war will not stop with Ukraine a wasteland. Making Ukraine a wasteland works against Russias Security just not as bad as nuclear missiles in Ukraine. This is how the west messes with Russia. They force them to do things against their own interest. Is is a way of degradation. The west doesn’t understand that degradation always back fires. It is a mark of a nation unskilled and ignorant and is to be pitied. The west is completly unskilled in conflict.
At some point Russia will work together with its Ukrainian brothers again and the wests creation of exceptionalism based cultural rejection will be revealed as the manipulative lie it is.

Posted by: Fred | Dec 13 2024 20:24 utc | 139

From above:
“How is this a retaliation for the ATACMS strike that doesn’t target western military? Without that it just shows the West it can get away with anything.”
The Russians are being practical and not symbolic. Taking out the electricity makes it much harder to move things around or operate in general for the NATO army in Ukraine. As far as targeting western military presence, that is not advertised, especially in the western press, but I’m pretty sure that its going on. Just patiently.
As far as revenge goes, I’d say that the results are pretty asymmetrical compared to the damage that the ATACMS are doing.

Posted by: dpy | Dec 13 2024 20:26 utc | 140

@dpy | Dec 13 2024 20:26 utc | 140

As far as revenge goes, I’d say that the results are pretty asymmetrical compared to the damage that the ATACMS are doing.

Exactly so! I think the Russians would say ‘response’ instead of ‘revenge’ though. They are rational people.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 13 2024 20:29 utc | 141

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:24 utc | 16
Given all the trolls that are swarming (maybe I could call them . . . drones?), you, good sir, along with Doctor Eleven, and Jeremy Rhymings-Lang, and a few other, are the reason I keep coming back.
“The trolls yip, but the SMO continues.” (Obviously derived from “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.”)

Posted by: Hunsdon | Dec 13 2024 20:35 utc | 142

Russia should have killed Zelensky a long time ago and his top Generals, how many Russian or DPR people have we seen assassinated over the years? they lalso turn Maidan into a car park.
Posted by: Englishman | Dec 13 2024 18:34 utc | 69
It would be quite stupid and a mistake to kill a man who is so useful for Russia.
When the enemy does mistakes, don’t stop him!

Posted by: Naive | Dec 13 2024 20:38 utc | 143

The US empire and its vassals directly attack “Old” Russia with advanced weapons.
(weird MOA behaviour can’t post whole text because of certain words?)

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:38 utc | 144

Its punching Russia with its fists while using Ukraine is the glove. No I correct myself, it’s using Ukraine as a condom as everyone can now see through it and Ukraine will be discarded like one after usage. Instead of Russia using Oreshnik on let’s say a Polish warehouse storing advanced NATO weaponry destined for Ukraine it instead attacks Ukraine.

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:39 utc | 145

By doing that Russia is again trying to avoid an immense escalation while at the same time increasing the burden on the Ukrainian junta as more Ukrainians will want a halt of this kind of attacks on Russian territory.

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:40 utc | 146

(MOA acting very weird)
It also adds a burden to the (EU) countries that will need to supply Ukraine with extra electricity.

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:41 utc | 147

So yes, still 5D chess in my opinion.

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:44 utc | 148

(The penultimate sentence that is getting shadow banned…)
The Ukra-inian jun-ta would lik-ely al-so want to rec-eive mo-re ot-her no-n milit-ary a-id fr-om N-ATO me-mber coun-tries to so-oth it-s shiv-ering popu-lation.

Posted by: xor | Dec 13 2024 20:45 utc | 149

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Dec 13 2024 19:19 utc | 106
##################
I have no doubt that Russian-stock rural Ukrainians will be able to handle it. There are rural people in Ukraine who still make use of outhouses.
It’s the Urbanites in Kiev and Lviv that are going to struggle the most. The young who like to go clubbing for fun (during wartime) and run OnlyFans accounts for a living. I’d say the kids of the Ukrainian politicians but the Ukrainian independent media has been chronicling how many kids of the Verkhovna Rada members are overseas living their best lives while avoiding military service.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 20:46 utc | 150

i wish the bitch freeland who move back to her apartment in kiev, instead of being a horrible mouthpiece on the canuck political scene..

Posted by: james | Dec 13 2024 20:49 utc | 151

who – would

Posted by: james | Dec 13 2024 20:49 utc | 152

@ Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 17:24 utc | 16
Well said.

Posted by: Clever Dog | Dec 13 2024 20:55 utc | 153

No one knows what is going to happen. Damn few even know what is going on (and I’m certainly not one of them).
VVP and the Stavka are not reading this page. (SVR, probably. NATO and the CIA, definitely.)
The trolls yip, “Russia MUST do something! Russia MUST do something to justify Article 5, or Russia is weak, Russia is losing, Putin is a coward, if he does not attack a NATO country, a NATO installation.” I suppose some of it is sincere. I suspect that most of it is not.
The US always, always, attacks “dual use” technology right from the get-go. Power plants. Sewer treatment centers. Russia’s restraint in doing so is an instructive difference.
People in the West—not the governments, but the people—are suffering, and seeing what TPTB are willing to sacrifice for this war. Rutte said something like “To defend ourselves, to increase our defense (!) spending, obviously other programs must be cut.” That’s going to go over like a lead balloon, like a whore in church, like a MAGA guy at a BLM rally.
Oh my goodness gracious, if Ukraine continues to launch ATACMs strikes that are (so far as we know, and we don’t know much) into Russia, and Russia responds by hitting Ukraine, and not attacking a NATO country . . . the populace sees. People in France, in Spain, in Italy, in Germany, in Greece. In Surinam and Syria and Saudi Arabia. Everywhere. You think any minds are being changed? Gosh, I do.
Remember, so much of the Western strategy in this war has been, “We hit Russia, the Russians get scared, run away, overthrow Putin, then victory!” This is a level of superficiality of the understanding of the Russian mindset that is quite frankly boggling. First the sanctions were supposed to do it. Then the great Ukrainian counteroffensive of Summer ’23 was supposed to do it. Now, I guess, ATACMs are supposed to do it.
To paraphrase the Critical Drinker, “Fuck off, trolls.”

Posted by: Hunsdon | Dec 13 2024 20:58 utc | 154

Sometimes I wonder if most of these threads is taken up by neocon trolls arguing with each other; one side all gung ho for the worthless ukie non-leadership and the other seeming to badly spruik for Russia with a few regulars stepping in to ‘straighten out’ the bulldust, pointless in some ways as types paid to oppose the objective few will never surrender, they just become more hysterical & more boring. I dunno what antispam tech b. uses on typepad now, whether it is Akismet or ‘open source’ but it hardly matters as both are amerikan products which are unlikely to be much use for detecting FukUS trolls.
Anyway the thing is, whilst these trolls are busy bullshitting over whether the Russian government should have used Oreshnik or not, their troll status is revealed by what we see from many of the more recent types posting more virulent advocacy for Russia throwing everything including the kitchen sink at ukraine. They have not discussed the consequences of Russia using Oreshnik.
What could those consequences be? Well firstly since there has been some ill-conceived comments from the RF that several Oreshniks sent in a flock to a target would have the same destructive capacity as a nuclear weapon, the amerikans will use those statements to claim that Russia has made a “massive” escalation in this conflict.
BidenCorp will claim that by using something Russia “confesses” has the power of nuclear weapons, that is the same as using nuclear weapons & therefore Russia has launched a ‘first strike’.
That is what will be used to sell to the credulous an increased committment and escalation by the imperialists which they want to take hold before the prez-elect becomes the prez.
However in reality, the real benefit that amerika wants to obtain is an opportunity to study the Oreshnik more intensively to A)enable the MIC to grab a trillion or two more credibly for attempting to emulate this weapon, & B) attempt assorted AD and EW techniques to suss out a defense against it. (Also lotsa glorious new bids for more $$$’s).
The first Oreshnik came without sufficient notice to be able to do much of that at all. I suspect some of the delay between the atacms strikes was in fact down to amerika installing monitoring devices around likely Oreshnik targets in Ukraine and maybe Poland. The amerikans wanted to bait Russia into launching another Oreshnik, all the better to understand what it does. Russia did not bite the well baited hook which musta been a disappointment, hence a cluster of new arrivals from some 3LA arguing with other 3LA colleagues who do their usual Russia white-anting despite it being to little avail.
Damn shame, gone are the days when troll tosh stuck out like the balls on a camp dog, now there is so much utter tosh to wade through following a cogent line of discussion has become a total chore – which is of course what the warmongers have been aiming for. They won’t succeed in their goal to reduce MoA to the level of the worst of the social networks simply because this site doesn’t function in the same way as those do/did but it is gonna be tiresome for the next little while.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Dec 13 2024 21:02 utc | 155

@130, Ma
Your use of Gish Gallop is wearisome.
Not one of your numerous bullet points is reasonable.
As for @132 you get no readers once your habit is observed.

Posted by: paddy | Dec 13 2024 21:03 utc | 156

Problem is, how much damage do the atacms do in Russia and how much damage RF make in Ukraine.
It seems that NATO damage is nearly non existent.

Posted by: Mario | Dec 13 2024 21:11 utc | 157

“The trolls yip, but the SMO continues.”

Posted by: Hunsdon | Dec 13 2024 20:35 utc | 142
Absolutely this, and the point the trolls miss (or deliberately ignore) is that Russia is conducting the SMO according to its doctrine and planning. This confuses and enrages those whose approach is stuck in a post-Soviet dissolution mindset of “Russia weak, US stronk”, and whose military thinking is shaped by the operations in Iraq (that turned out well, didn’t it?).

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 21:14 utc | 158

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@158….the Yanks got all Iraq’s oil, and oil revenues lock stock and barrel….now they have Syria’s…..Russia has lots of oil….but I think they’ll take and control Iran’s before they finish up Russia, long game, think long game.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 13 2024 21:20 utc | 159

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 13 2024 21:20 utc | 159
Meh, that’s just “Russia weak, US stronk” thinking. Haven’t you got a pot of gold at an end of a rainbow to protect? Or are you just a plastic garden gnome???

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 21:24 utc | 160

but I think they’ll take and control Iran’s before they finish up Russia, long game, think long game.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 13 2024 21:20 utc | 159

Pipe dream. Engaging Iran would spell the permanent end to Israel and would like dispel any idea that US would have any chance whatsoever vs. Russia or China.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 21:26 utc | 161

And all those US personnel in Iraq are not necessarily invincible. Y’know, if I was illegally squatting in a potentially hostile part of the world, I might have some concerns about being taken hostage.
The US has a patchy history of successfully getting hostages released…
Anyway, it’s all off-topic for a thread about Ukrainian electricity shortages…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 21:32 utc | 162

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 21:14 utc | 158
“The Russians are cheating! They’re not doing what we do!”
When, recently, the Commandant of the USMC (in which branch I did a non-combat, entirely unexceptional tour—except for learning Russian) said that “Our most recent combat experience was recorded on an Iphone 14, the most recent combat experience of the Chinese was recorded on oil and canvas” my soul almost died. Surely you would expect the USMC to remember the Korean War? The Chosin Reservoir?
All the West has left is narrative control, and they’re losing that . . . in large part due to strategic patience on the part of the ROW.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Dec 13 2024 21:33 utc | 163

But the electrical grid is not a purely “civilian” target. It is entirely dual-purpose, in that the manufacturing and transport of weapons involves the use of electricity, therefore it is a legitimate target.
Though I understand there isn’t so much electrical demand from Yuzhmash these days…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 13 2024 17:37 utc | 27
And aren’t the Western UA elec substations not also distribution points for power in and/or out of Poland, iow, inconveniencing two countries in one 🙂 Can’t remember if UA NPPs are still feeding Europe or they’re buying from outside.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 13 2024 21:49 utc | 164

Dima just said 50% of Ukraine has no power.
Dima further stated that 5 of 9 NPPS had to r Duce power output due to not enough downstream capacity. That implies some serious issues.
You calling him a liar?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 13 2024 20:11 utc | 136
No, he never lies. He has some special sources and he really knows what is happening.
But in a day or two Ukros always repair the damage.

Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 21:52 utc | 165

The empire wallows in putrid hubris and the masters are raptured with fetid deathbed delusions.
US/Nato tripwire bases are obsolete due to Oreshnik.The gauntlet is down, how will the masters of finance play their hand? Will they be true to their creed of redemption through transgression?
Talk plainly and talk urgently. One and all.
How will you play your part, Fellow Man?

Posted by: Helmut Herschwank | Dec 13 2024 21:55 utc | 166

But in a day or two Ukros always repair the damage.
Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 21:52 utc | 165

LOL, yeah, right. I have regular conversations with a party in Lviv and the power situation has been getting progressively worse with every strike.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 21:57 utc | 167

If these are military targets shouldn’t they have been bombed at the first opportunity? And why must Russia need a excuse to hit them?
Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 19:08 utc | 98
I believe Moscow only strikes ***dual purpose power infrastructure*** which will inconvenience civilians on an intermittent basis to keep the PR flak low … AND TO wear down popular Ukie spirit *more slowly over time*. Sure, they could blackout all 404 in one day. But imagine the global MSM headlines “Putin kills 5,000 old age pensioners in freezing blackout”.
War (to RF) is much more subtle than the Western way of “bomb everything of your enemy asap, and fuck the civilians”.

Posted by: Just a Voice | Dec 13 2024 22:00 utc | 168

It would serve many on this board well to remember that the original objectives of he SMO included “denazify and demilitarise Ukraine”.
The Russians are systematically doing that, and burning thru the material stocks of all those who support Ukraine as well. This, while also pushing just hard enough to keep NATO sending its rapidly diminishing weapons stocks but not hard enough to get them actively engaged or escalating to a nuclear cluster fuck. That demonstrates masterful control and restraint.
As for Hal Turner, I note that not one of those images has anything resembling a time stamp that would establish its validity. It is little more than a series of grabs from various media articles without that detail. He has a very deep history of being wrong, and just occasionally he gets it right. Consume at your own risk.

Posted by: eagle eye | Dec 13 2024 22:01 utc | 169

> I have no doubt that Russian-stock rural Ukrainians will be able to handle it. There are rural people in Ukraine who still make use of outhouses.
> Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 13 2024 20:46 utc | 150
But i do doubt.
Rewatch the Putin’s declaration of SMO 2 years ago. Putin was all buttoned up and pocker-faced as he prefers to be, except for one shot phrase: “You demanded decommunization? We will give it to you properly!” for a split second his internal rage was showing out.
Now go wiki or any other census archives and check Ukraine population that was there before ‘dem bloody commies abused and forced ukrainians into cities. Check how many could this Ukraine sustaine WITHOUT urban/industrial economy. Not really that much.
Check the medieval european folklore tails, where families for dying for deaths daring not to go into private-owned and fiercly protected forrests. Compare maps of Europe and Greece today and two thousand years ago, about ‘dem woods. Where did all of this infinite European forrest gone (remember Putin’s snark to (i think, not sure) Merkel: “denying our gas and uranium, what you gonna use for heat? woods? but even woods you would have to buy from Russia’s Siberia”)?
Last, check the aerial/sattelite photos of Carpatian mountains and how frequent avalanches there were century ago and became today.
—-
Ze’s government is already, from the early Autumn, punishing any households stocking woods. I would not estimate the daily rate of woods burning, i only lived village winters in a house heated by charcoal or gas, but the Ukrainians themselves were cussing like the permeated amount if very small. That said, Ukrainains next to always cuss and ocmplain, so i may be wrong, and maybe Ze’s team calculated wood quotas properly. Still, even then, the need for Ze to enact and enforce such an unpopular limit speaks for itself. They know well, if ALL ukrainians would start burning what is there left of forrests – they would chop all the trees is few weeks.
—-
TL;DR – when Ukraine was rural – it could hardly sustain less than 10 Millions, and those were trained to be villagers for the day of their birth. Today rural Ukrainians are not trained to sustain their houses without power grid, natural gas and cars gasoline. But EVEN if they were – that would still mean slashing the remaining population 2-4 times!
You seems to see Ze a new Pol Pot ruthlessly forcing urbanites from the doomed cities into the wild fields where they would have a chance at survival, organizing them and retraining them, by hook or by crook. But Ze did not graduated from Sorbonne, he would not make it event if he would care to try.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 13 2024 22:02 utc | 170

Duran’s Mercouris is reporting that HTS has initiated talks with Russians for them to stay in their Syrian bases. Apparently they don’t want to be left entirely to the whims of the Turks, Israelis and Americans.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 22:03 utc | 171

There’s no need to call people trolls. It’s simply offering a counter view for discussion. I do not necessarily disagree with other’s view of Russia. I also hope you are right and I’m wrong. But there’s no need for name calling, regardless of ones’ opinion.

Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 22:03 utc | 172

William Gruff | Dec 13 2024 18:55 utc | 91–
Pipes freeze; toilets freeze. Lots of high-rise apts in the main cities, and even in the minor ones. The Romanian/Moldovan Nazi Maia Sandu who supports Zelensky declared a state of emergency because Ukraine won’t renew the gas transit contract that expires December 31 and will cut off gas supplies to Moldova and elsewhere.
As many smart people have observed, hitting the energy grid also hits many more targets than just the equipment as NATO states will try and compensate at the expense of their own populous, which are getting ever more restive. IMO, that’s far more effective than an Oreshnik strike as all of Europe will be affected as energy prices rise in a cascading manner–first in the east, then central and finally western Europe. The Russians know exactly what they’re doing while the trolls have their thumbs stuck in their butts.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 13 2024 22:04 utc | 173

168 – believe Moscow only strikes ***dual purpose power infrastructure*** which will inconvenience civilians on an intermittent basis to keep the PR flak low … AND TO wear down popular Ukie spirit *more slowly over time*. Sure, they could blackout all 404 in one day. But imagine the global MSM headlines “Putin kills 5,000 old age pensioners in freezing blackout”.
War (to RF) is much more subtle than the Western way of “bomb everything of your enemy asap, and fuck the civilians”.

Russia gets rotten headlines in Western MSM however softly it goes. Don’t know about global MSM, though. Lack of subtlety doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Zionists, though. In fact the chutzpah is off the charts…

Posted by: Waldorf | Dec 13 2024 22:05 utc | 174

What is next? This game of tit for tat is so laughable if not for the fact that lives that been lost on both sides.
Russia has been bombing power stations etc. And Ukranians are still going to nightclubs and partying.
My point is both sides have lost the war. The west and nato won as they took the lives of at least a 100 thousand Russian sons and daughters. As for ukraine I guess they technically won as they all have free visa and travel to the west to live the slave life.
For the west and nato, the children of the ukranian refugees will forever see themselves as westerners. They will never go back to Ukraine or see themselves as ukranians, infact they are the fix for the low birth rate issues in the west.

Posted by: memyselfandi | Dec 13 2024 22:27 utc | 175

Ich denke, die russischen Zeile für die nähere Zukunft sind vor allem, Ukraime vom Schwarzen Meer abzuschneiden, damit keine Flotte gebaut oder vom Wsten geliefert werden kann und Ukraine zum Binnenland wird. Also den Bereich bis Rumänien und Moldavien. Sodan, die Infrasturktur so zu zerstören, dass weiterer Nachschub vom Westen nur noch schwer möglich ist, wozu auch die Energie-Hilfslieferungen des Westen zählen. So machen die Ziele Sinn, weil Strom von Westen dann gar nicht geliefert werden kann, mangels Leitungen und Umspannwerken.
An den wichtigen Frostabschnitten sind fast überall die ukrainischen Einheiten entweder im Rückzug oder eingekesselt, also haben die Wahl, aufzugeben oder langsam nacheinander zu sterben. Keine Notwendigkeit da noch irgendwo Raketen hinzuschicken.
Für den Beobachter, der nur die Mediden und ein paar Blogs kennt, mag das wie zu langsames Vorrücken aussehen, Zeichen für Schwäche. Mir scheint es wie lamgsame Umsetzung eines sorfgältig ausgearbeiteten zu sein, bei dem genügend in der Rückhand gehalten wird, um Unerwartetem zu begegnen.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:31 utc | 176

> But in a day or two Ukros always repair the damage.
> Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 21:52 utc | 165
They obviously do not – because we know there are blackouts today. Were there systemic blackouts before 2022? I don’t think so. Which proves Ukrainian did NOT repair all the damage.
Also, how many factories are there working in Ukraine producing Soviet-standard havy energy equipment? None?
Hence whatever serious repairs Ukrainians managed to do, those were made with the gifts of some custom-made or deeply adapted Western-produced equipment.
In part, West pays dearly to provide Ze with badly fitting repair kits. In other parts, damage is left to be. Both options suit Kremlin.
You might be misled by EuroMaidan busily killing off all the Ukrainian industires between 2014 and 2022. This rampaging deindustrialization created a huge surplass in Power Generation, which Ukrainian fatcats were selling el cheapo to EU, which in turn let EU LGreenBT zombies destroy Eurpean power plants and claim that a progress. They both were happy…
Putin’s degrading Ukrainian power generation was like the underwater iceberg surfacing slowly. For many months it was merely decreasing the share Ze’s oligarchs could sell to EU. Still even that was “raising the costs” for EU, as they could pocket less and less. Then the balance switched and now EU had to export energy to Ukraine, instead of stealing form it.
That started EU energy prices grow, slowly but continuously, cuilminating in German heavy industries collapsing. However if you only would focus on Ukraine, you would not notice it, for a while the growing deficite for Europeans was enough of compensation to keep the pretense in Ukraine. Perhaps this was also a win-win for Kremlin. Putin spent his forming years in Germany and he did a lot since 2008 and especially since 2014 to entice Germany to regain independence and to aim at the mutual benefit. I speculate Germany’s preference to remain colonized was felt a deeply personal insult to Putin and he contemplates Germany degrading itself a la “i did much more for you than i should had and than you were worth, now enjoy being left alone”.
However the time was going and more “reparations” were launched at Ukraine. Another line was crossed and since then even the most possible energy export from EU could no more compensate for the want. The blackouts started. On the surface you would see it as THE start of Ukrainian grid getting hurt, after months and months of “Ukrainians repaired it” bravado. But actually this is the end not the start. It is the final phase when even ALL the energy EU streams into Ukraine is still not enough to keep the pretense of urban lifestyle.
And, again, through all those phases, the costs for EU for destroying democracy and sponsoring terrorism in Ukraine were steadily rising.

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 13 2024 22:32 utc | 177

sorry fo rposting before translation, so again:#1.078 / 5.000
I think the Russian line for the near future is primarily to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea so that no fleet can be built or delivered from the desert and Ukraine becomes a landlocked country. In other words, the area up to Romania and Moldova. And to destroy the infrastructure so that further supplies from the West are difficult to come by, including energy aid deliveries from the West. So the goals make sense because electricity from the West cannot be delivered at all due to a lack of lines and substations.
In the important frost areas, the Ukrainian units are either in retreat or surrounded almost everywhere, so they have the choice of giving up or dying slowly one after the other. No need to send rockets there.
To the observer who only knows the media and a few blogs, this may look like too slow an advance, a sign of weakness. To me it seems like the slow implementation of a carefully planned plan, with enough in reserve to deal with the unexpected.

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:32 utc | 178

Let summarize the comment below, “russia and ukraine lost “, nato aka usa won… Do the math in terms of lives lost, you will find out thw usa and nato lapdogs are laughing.
≈=========================
If these are military targets shouldn’t they have been bombed at the first opportunity? And why must Russia need a excuse to hit them?
NATO attacks Russia then Russia bombs Ukraine and claims it punished NATO for the initial attack. A bit disingenuous, don’t you think?
If Russia does not want to escalate to war with NATO then it needs to accept these “pinprick” attacks from NATO as a cost of war. Claiming the attacks will be punished then going after the Ukraine military, which has no say in the matter, doesn’t do much for Russian credibility.
NATO attacks Russia. Russia attacks Ukraine. NATO attacks Russia again. Russia attacks Ukraine again. That’s deterrence? Isn’t repeating the same thing over again and expecting a different result the definition of insanity?
Yes I know…5D chess. I hope the Putin apologists are right. Personally, Putin’s idea of war seems like being half pregnant.
Posted by: EoinW | Dec 13 2024 19:08 utc | 98

Posted by: memyselfandi | Dec 13 2024 22:33 utc | 179

Several posters, including DebsIsDead, have pointed out that Russia is conducting the war according to its advantages, and that the West’s attempt to bait the Russians into disclosing the mechanism and design of the Oreshnik system via another well-prepared-for provocation (the lastest ATAMS attack) was identified … and declined.
Why would Russia deviate from the strategy that’s working for them? Why would the Russians grant the West a cost-free opportunity to analyze Oreshnik?
They would not.
The Syria gambit is the latest version of the Kursk strategy. The fact that it happened at all says “what Russia is doing in Ukraine is working”. Terribly well, apparently. The West played a lot of long-held cards in the Syria gambit, a bit like Israel’s use of the exploding pager mechanism. You use those cards only if and when you really need them.
The question I have is “why debut Oreshnik at all, and why now?”. Maybe it happened because:
a. Russia felt it needed to scare the West. That, apparently, didn’t entirely work, did it?
b. Russia is telling the rest of the world (ROW) that “things are going to be different henceforth. Bet accordingly”.
Russia moves deliberately, in some ways like the U.S. Federal Reserve. It understands the large-momentum politics and economics of moving a world economic order around. To get the results you want, you must telegraph your moves, then gradually make the moves (build credibility), and (gradually) give the players a chance to move their chips around on the board.
I still expect Russia to use Oreshnik again, but the target has to be:
a. big and important enough to justify the intelligence gathering that the West will do
b. unexpected enough for the strike to be effective
I’m not sure how many such targets are available at the moment in Ukraine. If you had an Oreshnik, what would you target in Ukraine?
If you suggest hitting outside Ukraine, you’re advocating giving NATO the casus belli (excuse for war-making) it needs to rally and marshal NATO against Russia. Is that effect, which is what would probably happen, in Russia’s interest?
Russia is smart enough to stay focused, do more of what’s working, and give the West time to adapt to new realities. Don’t provide the trigger-event that provides enough public fear as to commit to world war.
As others have pointed out, W. Europe is very much feeling the pain of Ukraine’s energy woes. It’s also going to feel the pain of additional refugees, both from Syria and from Ukraine. What pain? Costs and political pressure from the populace that has to sacrifice their jobs and well-being to support these Empire policies.
That pain is really just beginning; it took Russia three years to create the situation the EU is facing now. Remember that one of Russia’s objectives is to wreck NATO politically. How? Make it unbearably expensive to be part of NATO.
Is that working, or not? How are Germany and France, and even Italy doing economically and politically?
What’s your assessment?
=== Relatedly …
Some posters decry that Russia hasn’t attacked NATO. “Russia is afraid. They’re weak!”.
No. The way the West wins .vs. Russia is to goad Russia into doing something that galvanizes and unites and enrages the Public West, so they generate the massive pile of people (dead bodies) and material necessary to overwhelm Russia in conventional terms.
This is why Russia’s nuclear doctrine was changed to allow for the use of short-range “tactical” nukes. Russia is attempting to preempt the West’s “overwhelm with bodies” move. A better way to preempt that move is to … not provide the casus belli the West wants, so it can’t marshal the bodies and materials necessary to conduct that attack.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Dec 13 2024 22:34 utc | 180

Somebody make this make sense to me.
Posted by: WJ | Dec 13 2024 17:56 utc | 36
Try
inquiries@kremlin.MoD.gov.ru
Jeezuz. So many people on MoA (and elsewhere) expect complex military tactical and strategic issues to make sense from their own general minimalist web reading and the opinions of people little more informed than themselves.
At least @WJ wants to understand. Most here don’t. They just want to blurt out their own theories and pretentious wisdom, or criticise those they disagree with.
Beware, WJ. 10 replies here won’t give you definitive “sense” but only 10 perspectives on the mysterious unknowable. From that, you then try to make “broader sense”. But it will never be “true” or “complete” based on those out of the Kremlin loop.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 13 2024 22:36 utc | 181

> no fleet can be built or delivered from the desert and Ukraine becomes landlocked
> Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:31 utc | 176
> Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:32 utc | 178
at first i thought that was some weird auto-translation error, but now i am genuinely puzzled
what did you mean by “desert” above ?

Posted by: Arioch | Dec 13 2024 22:37 utc | 182

My point is both sides have lost the war. The west and nato won as they took the lives of at least a 100 thousand Russian sons and daughters. As for ukraine I guess they technically won as they all have free visa and travel to the west to live the slave life.
Posted by: memyselfandi | Dec 13 2024 22:27 utc | 175

You’re right there’s no real winners in war, but if you look at the classical definition of who emerges on top then Russia’s definitely going to be the winner. I’d call China a close second because it’s entirely out of the fray yet benefits immensely with Russia’s successful completion of the SMO and commensurate failure of Western hegemony.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 22:39 utc | 183

The West and the Ukrainian overlords don’t care whether most Ukrainians have power. This will not impact USA decisions.

Posted by: My Comment | Dec 13 2024 22:40 utc | 184

The EU is trapped in having to send more and more energy to Ukraine, compensating for the increasing numbers of destroyed transformer substations etc.
There are an increasing number of current reports of power supply balance problems in Germany in particular. Instead of either solar or wind generation being able to continue, the current combined cold, cloudy and wind free spell has had a big impact on all ‘green’ power causing an unusually early run on the stored gas supplies. So the ‘more and more’ might become less and less.
Also last winter Ukraine was sending NPP electricity into the EU. No doubt Russia is watching the situation like a hawk, those interconnect systems are as vulnerable as any other part of the grid, but there is no point in causing adverse publicity if nature is doing it for them.
Then the still running at high volumes NG transit through Ukraine stops in 18 days. Let alone their need for it, will the EU and the bankers allow effectively bankrupt Ukraine to walk away from the estimated US$1B transit revenue needed to repay their loans.

Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 13 2024 22:43 utc | 185

Russia’s retaliation won’t help them. The reality is that neither the west nor Zelensky cares that Ukrainians were affected. It’s just license in their view that Russia will spare western assets. Expect continued provocation.

Posted by: Guthrie | Dec 13 2024 22:50 utc | 186

We might be looking at some of these data-sets to explore the ripple effect of RF attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid.
Weekly updates would be useful if anyone in the bar is into this stuff,
Electricity Price – Europe/1000 – By Country
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/electricity-price?continent=europe/1000
Global household electricity prices 2024, by select country
https://datasetsearch.research.google.com/search?ref=TDJjdk1URnlaREptT0hjeGN3PT0sTDJjdk1URnVabUpvWmpjelp3PT0sTDJjdk1URjVNbTE2TkhkZk5RPT0%3D&query=europe%20electricity%20prices%20chart&docid=L2cvMTFuZmJoZjczZw%3D%3D
# Candles are also useful at times – when the lights go out!

Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 13 2024 22:51 utc | 187

VV is not taking the bait……..
Those on this bar who are advocated a strike on a Polish NATO base would play right into the hands of Biden neo con insanity group who badly desire to lock DJT into a direct war with Russia.
A Hazel strike on Poland would do just that….instead VV is concentrating on destroying the infrastructure that makes the Nazis go……power and fuel.
No, VV wants to deal with DJT on the level because he feels he can make the deal for RF to rule the Ukraine province up to the Dnieper and throw in the Odessa region in toto, including all Black Sea ports………..DJT will make that deal, he is sick of billions of US Biden bucks being funneled into Nazi bank accounts in Israel and the Bahamas and Alpland………
Look the Biden neo cons deliberately attempted, by supporting HTS, to get RF bogged down in Syria, and failed……VV is keeping his eye on the prize, but the Hazel is still available for another demonstration in some huge industrial complex at any time…stay tuned…

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 13 2024 22:55 utc | 188

Posted by: WJ | Dec 13 2024 17:56 utc | 36
Lol. Exactly as per my #181, ref Ma Laoshi #130 verus JR-L #132. There’s two well-meaning posters both trying to give you opposing “sense”. Lol.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Dec 13 2024 22:57 utc | 189

This will not impact USA decisions.
Posted by: My Comment | Dec 13 2024 22:40 utc | 184

No power then no trains… as they’re mostly electric. No power then no gas/diesel distribution by pipeline either. Nothing substantial — especially military — moves.
If USA decision makers don’t care about logistics then they’re idiots that have no business playing war.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Dec 13 2024 23:10 utc | 190

Then the still running at high volumes NG transit through Ukraine stops in 18 days. Let alone their need for it, will the EU and the bankers allow effectively bankrupt Ukraine to walk away from the estimated US$1B transit revenue needed to repay their loans.
Posted by: JohninMK | Dec 13 2024 22:43 utc | 185
Well, this is where the Siamese Systems of Money and Power have one of their little wrestling matches. Of course it doesn’t matter to us plebs which Siamese twin wins such little bouts as the rigged System always wins – with one or the other.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 13 2024 23:10 utc | 191

@Arioch
typing and engine error:
> no fleet can be built or delivered from the desert and Ukraine becomes landlocked
> Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:31 utc | 176
> Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 22:32 utc | 178
at first i thought that was some weird auto-translation error, but now i am genuinely puzzled
should be
“Ukraine cannot build a fleet or get delivered ships from the western and Ukraine becomes landlocked”

Posted by: wp007 | Dec 13 2024 23:11 utc | 192

This action was against the civilian population of Ukraine. Noted.
Ukrainians, civilian and military, can perform their ethical and societal duties to go beyond passivity/complicity and reclaim their country. Best wishes.

Posted by: elmagnostic | Dec 13 2024 23:12 utc | 193

There are plenty of NATO targets located in Ukraine….give me a break…..thousands of NATO troops and advisors are stationed in Ukraine……..
RF can punish NATO directly at any time and has done so repeatedly….

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Dec 13 2024 23:12 utc | 194

A lot of talk about survival when the public services stop.
I bought a Morgan Out Island sailboat, the kind that has maximum interior room even at the expense of s(n)ailing fast. I put a lot of photovoltaic panels (8′ X 12′ hard plastic Bimini that collects rainwater) and Lithium batteries and an extra electric 8 horsepower engine. I have fast motor skiff and a slow motor skiff that also sails and rows. I have 6 months of long storage food, and loads of all kinds of fishing equipment. The trick with regards to a solar still to turn bad/salt water into distilled drinking water is to put the cold side of a Peltier device heat-sink against the condensation droplet collection pane of glass/lexan. (A gallon of free distilled water most days) I will soon be replacing sophisticated desiel motor with an air cooled single piston motor that has few moving parts and is difficult to break and cheep/easy to replace. (I don’t plan on motoring anywhere, but I can if I have to)
I the days leading up to WW II a German man named Oskar Speck wanted nothing to do with the war. He gathered a handful of sticks, fabric, and string and made himself a stick framed fabric covered kayak, and paddled from Germany to Australia. I will not be paddling to Australia, the “West Indies” is good enough for me.

Posted by: Hot Carl | Dec 13 2024 23:14 utc | 195

@ WMG | Dec 13 2024 17:51 utc | 33
Getting your “information” from Wikipedia, means you are 200% naive. Wikipedia is usually good for looking up scientific facts, but when it comes to controversial fields, it’s terrible. People with self-respect learn to verify things before they publish and reveal they didn’t know anything. As for Wikipedia, everyone learns which fields you can’t trust it at all.
You wrote “The Kachovka dam (near Cherson) was blown up by the russians on june 6, 2023. … Did the russinas blow up more of the 5 remaining dams in the river Dnjepr ?”
Unlike you, I was watching the news in June, 2023. In fact, back then no one said the Russians destroyed the Kakhova Dam. Blowing up the dam caused about US$ 6 billion in damage to irrigation systems all over Russian-held territory, and (since in the Pontic steppe, the western river banks are typically at least 30 meters higher than the eastern banks) there was little or no damage on the Ukie-held land. Blowing up the dam did destroy Russian agriculture over a huge area of formerly productive land. In other words, only the Ukies had reason to blow that huge dam. Also, if you were watching back then, the Ukies held the dam and they didn’t claim Russian aircraft or missiles did the damage. They were silent. However there was one place in the autumn of 2024, where Russian missiles hit a hydroelectric power plant on the Dneiper, destroying most of the turbine hall.
Expect Wikipedia to be sewage on anything controversial. Check your Wiki “information” before bringing it in here, and you will find it always stinks.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Dec 13 2024 23:17 utc | 196

Thanks for the post b.

How is this a retaliation for the ATACMS strike that doesn’t target western military? Without that it just shows the West it can get away with anything.
Posted by: quackalist | Dec 13 2024 17:07 utc | 2
It’s sweeter than that quackalist. Russia is hitting where the pocket-book is. The new owner of the steppe – Black Rock.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Dec 13 2024 23:21 utc | 197

I’m beginning to doubt the usefulness of Oreshnik. And it’s definitely NOT a substitute for Nukes. It couldn’t be. The key multiplier in the Kinetic Energy formula is V^2 or 3000^2. The key multiplier for the energy released by a Nuke is C^2 or 300,000^2.
Oreshnik seems to be a deep penetration weapon with a limited range of worthwhile/relevant targets. So I doubt that it will ever be mass-produced and it’s conceivably more costly than a Nuke because of its complexity – 36 x independent warheads?! – that says Hugely Expensive to me.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 13 2024 23:24 utc | 198

So Putin is just pretending.
Posted by: vargas | Dec 13 2024 20:07 utc | 133

lol

Posted by: Carrion | Dec 13 2024 23:26 utc | 199

Also, if you were watching back then, the Ukies held the dam and they didn’t claim Russian aircraft or missiles did the damage. They were silent. However there was one place in the autumn of 2024, where Russian missiles hit a hydroelectric power plant on the Dneiper, destroying most of the turbine hall.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Dec 13 2024 23:17 utc | 196
That is what I remember too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 13 2024 23:27 utc | 200