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After Syria
I was pondering the longe term (20+ years) consequences of the fall of Syria but have failed to come up with sensible predictions.
There are too many interests and nations involved, too many hot spots ready to explode.
But what I find most difficult to predict is the consequence of the systematic de-secularization we can see in the wider area.
Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria …).
The powers of eschatological (miss-)interpretations of various scriptures is difficult to estimate.
Excellent comment by Gnome Sane, agree fully. If I dig a bit deeper :
The first lesson after Syria is that nobody in the current Alt-Media space deserves to be listened to ever again.
Well I sure didn’t wait for the latest fiasco to decide this. How the entire alternative sphere can still consider a few old discredited fools (Scott Ritter, Martyanov, Judge Napolitano, Col McGregor) seriously is beyond me.
The second lesson after Syria is that the Empire won. Octavian beat Anthony…again. The only person who had the real power to stop it, and who had the obligation to stop it, sat on his rear end in the Kremlin while his client state was handily destroyed and everything he had worked for for two decades went up in smoke in a week. Make no mistake about it, this is a colossal disgrace for Russia from which they will not recover. Russia has no honor in this thing, none whatsoever. It is only a matter of time before Putin folds in Ukraine as well.
Agree. Either you go all in, or you don’t go at all. In the end Russia looks like another rube ; invested a lot of money and reputation, ended up with nothing.
The third lesson after Syria is that those who want to cope by saying “Why should Russia fight in Syria when Assad’s own army won’t even fight” are the lowest of the low and the stupidest of the stupid. Assad’s army was completely dependent on Russian support to have a chance of fighting. Russia could have very easily defeated these mercenaries, but decided not to. Russia threw Syria under the bus and them blamed Syria for not fighting. Pathetic. Furthermore, Russia’s obligation to fight was not limited to the need to protect Syria itself. Russia needed to hold on to that piece of the geopolitical chessboard. Without it, the BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the good will of the Global South all evaporate. Russia just lost everything.
ABSOLUTELY. Russia just stood by and let Syria get repeatedly attrited over the years by the fucking *** air force. Put yourself in the shoes of a Syrian officer ; why should you risk your ass when you see Russia cozying up to the fucking *** and sucking their circumcised dicks ?
Russia should have set a nuclear ultimatum. Hands off Syria, or Tel Aviv goes up in smoke. That’s the madman gamble, a la Nixon. Either that, or you pack up and leave (which they are doing anyway right now).
One thing to mention as another blunder : I have in my library the memoirs of an actual Wagner fighter who was in Ukraine and in Syria. And he makes it absolutely crystal clear that all of the successes on the ground in 2015-2016 were due to one factor, one team : Wagner.
The Syrian army was mostly useless (except maybe the Tiger Force). The Russian regular army was a bunch of toadies, corrupt generals staying in the rear, and a decent air force. It’s Wagner who achieved all the successes, it is the Wagner guys who conquered Palmyra, AND RECONQUERED IT when HTS overran the regular army after Wagner left.
And then Putin and the Shoigu proceeded to dismantle one of the few effective fighting forces Russia had, because Prigozhin, although a crook and a megalomaniac, actually nailed it and dared to denounce the widespread inefficacy of the clique at the top.
Of course Syria fell. But it wouldn’t have fallen if Wagner was still there. Russia even let the Americans butcher them.
The fourth lesson after Syria is that we now live fully in the age of the untrammeled globohomo empire. There is no state actor who is going to do anything about it. If change is to come at all, it must come from the American people making the hard choices and sacrifices to enforce it upon their rulers. Pathetic Russia will do nothing to stop it. Our only hope is in me and you.
Posted by: Gnome Sane | Dec 10 2024 18:35 utc | 17
Spot on. I’ll say it again : Russian diplomats and the Russian goons around Putin are just pathetic born losers. Their specialty is leaving half-finished businesses and negotiating atrocious deals, only to then demurely come back hat in hand and say “whoops sorry folks ! Fooled again ! Turns out our esteemed partners planned for years behind our back ! Who could have foreseen it ?”
The only meaningful actors in the world now are, in this order :
1. North Korea
2. China.
Russia has just taken a giant leap forward being just another regional power. They’re one bad deal away from signing off definitively as a great power.
Posted by: Micron | Dec 10 2024 20:53 utc | 116
The 03 US war on Iraq based on lies, was a large bully beating someone up on the world playground to get their toys. Quite the shame on my country to act thus. The aggression was also prompted by the need to regime change Saddam, as he was paying Palestinian suicide bombers families $$,$$$. And called for dropping the dollar in trade, that is a no no.
My thinking was what will happen? The ROTW joining together, secretly at first. Figured it would be led by China and resurgent Russia. I thought Germany would need to be careful, but would discreetly back this coalition. My mistake on that, but the US has shown it is willing to economically kill the German state (Nordstream destruction).
Around 08 during the Great Recession, ROTW including EU saw how they were paying for the monetary gambling of the US Banksters. China called for a new trade currency by 2018 to prevent it happening again. That currency is still in the idea stage, though BRICS is semi established, and national currency trade is being used to the detriment of the US. A bit of a dollar short and a day late.
Russia’s Syrian intervention was a blow to the West’s overthrow of Assad. A policy needed due to it’s support of Hezbollah which still has a latent potential to throw off the yoke of ZZani. The ideology produces the hate cult of the self choZZen vs Goy(l)im. Can’t do a damn thing on their own, small brain mentality.
The ZZani ideology, supported by a mutated paratisized Christianity, is up against Moslam ideology which has an Ivermectin-like inoculation element. Some may see an ongoing parallel with early Islamic history. The mutated Salafist ideology has no large or staying hold, though enormous amounts of money prop it up currently.
i internally predicted that the west would cut into the underbelly of Russia (UKrain) to dislodge it from Syria, toppling Assad, harming perhaps starving hezbollah, protecting ZZani. Syria has lasted another 8 years, and hezbollah, and there is the survival/emergence of Ansarallah. “Nothing is written”.
My guess has been that money, bribes plus a covert electronic media brain washing blitz conditioning DOOM collapsed the Syr army. Interesting to note others think so as well. The Chinese and Russians are observing and studying the mechanisms of control. Another technical trick to gain short term advantage squandered for the ZZani state of mind. This sci-fi Foundation series of digitally propagated emotional/mental control is the real threat to BRICS.
Unfortunately for the west, UKrain has a decimated electrical grid, so electronic warfare whipping up of anti-Russian hate will be future limited, and hence, so will the morale and will to fight.
They should have negotiated in good faith back in 22′. All you have to do is look at a map, bomb the Dneipro bridges and there is no supplies. Wait a siege year or two, it’s over because the troops and cities have no food, clean water, electricity. Russia is implementing a differing mode of war compared to past US.
The Chinese sanctions on drone parts, and military ingredients, will have an outsized effect on UKrain within a month or two, as drones/intel the primary setback to Russian armor. Coinciding with the multiple Russian cauldrons being simultaneously wrapped up, and the attrition of UKrain men and equipment, big arrow movements will be possible in 25. Not spooking Europe enters the calculations.
If Russia loses the Mediterranean air base and port, they will not settle for less than Odessa and Mykolaiv imo. The Turks may accommodate them, the US will want them gone and use the Kurds as leverage.
Iran may make a public display of nuclear capability if threatened too much. They may have gone the route of NK and already tested a mini nuke first, then proceed directly to a more powerful hydrogen bomb. A small life insurance policy.
This has definitely been a major setback for Russia. The flip side is that they will have more resources focusing on UKrain and if that is settled they will be back on the world stage in a much more stronger position, barring disruptive technologies. Assad comeback tour.
The criZZies would be doing themselves and everyone else a BIG favor disavowing their supremacist mythology, all they have to do is look at themselves. The MIRROR is yu-glee. Every religion has an element of “we’re the best”, but one falsely takes it to an extreme extreme.
Alas, pyscho greed and ego temporarily prevail. As Putin said the winner will be the country that first develops advanced AI.
My countries open war with Russia and China is in the air. Expect the unexpected, from all sides.
Posted by: jopalolive | Dec 10 2024 21:00 utc | 120
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