So far Simplicius has done a fine job of early takeaway.

Posted by: Chevrus | Dec 10 2024 18:12 utc | 1

I wonder if there's going to be any pushback against the Israeli conquest of Southern Syria, and regardless, how far Netanyahu intends to go.

Officially they plan to take on 400km sq2 as a buffet, but I assume that's just a first step.

Posted by: Afro | Dec 10 2024 18:14 utc | 2

https://globalsouth.co/2024/12/10/lessons-from-syria-assad-and-putin/

Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 10 2024 18:15 utc | 3

If Hezbollah is unable to recover its supply line to Iran through Syria, it limits Iran's ability to rely on Hezbollah as a key deterrent.

If Iran tries to get a nuke without Hezbollah as a deterrent, does it increase the odds of Israel resorting to using nukes against Iran to stop the nuclear program from succeeding at mounting a nuke on a missile?

Posted by: quackquack | Dec 10 2024 18:18 utc | 4

Es gibt doch kaum etwas Unterhaltsameres als das dumme Geschwätz einer völlig hohlen EU-Nuß (FAZ 10.12.2024, 18.46) – oder hätte die Dame einen Vorschlag zu unterbreiten, wie das, was sie sich wünscht, mit den Mitteln der EU zu erreichen wäre ? Dazu hätte man schon mit Assad reden müssen, aber das wollte man ja nicht. Now isch over:
« Nach dem Sturz des syrischen Machthabers Baschar al-Assad hat die EU-Außenbeauftragte Kaja Kallas vor einer Destabilisierung des Landes gewarnt. Syrien dürfe kein zweites Irak, Libyen oder Afghanistan werden, sagte Kallas am Dienstag im Europaparlament in Brüssel. Konfessionelle Gewalt gelte es ebenso zu verhindern wie ein Wiederaufleben des Extremismus und ein Regierungsvakuum, sagte Kallas.»

There is hardly anything more entertaining than the stupid chatter of a completely hollow EU nut (FAZ December 10, 2024, 6:46 p.m.) - or could the lady make a suggestion as to how what she wants could be achieved using EU resources? To do this, they would have had to talk to Assad, but they didn't want to do that. Now it's over:

« After the overthrow of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned of a destabilization of the country. Syria should not become another Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan, Kallas said on Tuesday in the European Parliament in Brussels. Sectarian violence needs to be prevented, as does a resurgence of extremism and a government vacuum, said Kallas. »

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 10 2024 18:20 utc | 5

https://www.youtube.com/live/KaBxzJleSm0?si=PXeBpcm1ByG5kWAh

Posted by: Kim Sejrskild | Dec 10 2024 18:20 utc | 6

A couple decent articles from the past couple days:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/12/10/understanding-the-rebellion-in-syria/

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/12/09/asad-abukhalil-syria-now/

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 18:21 utc | 7

I'm not sure how "religious" these "religious" countries are.

I think it's just a societal control mechanism used by the psychopaths in charge, none of whom genuinely believe in God... though you could argue Zionists can genuinely hold religious beliefs and behave psychopathically.

Posted by: observer | Dec 10 2024 18:22 utc | 8

I think the choices for people around the world are difficult and confusing. I believe, and psychology suggests, that meaning is the most critical aspect of life for all of us as Victor Frankl cogently advocated. Meaning can only come from a mythological framework which is often religion. The hyper-materialistic religion of consumerism (I honestly consider it a religion because people bind themselves to pursuing money and what it can buy over other consideration--even in religious areas like the South of the USA. There has to be some form, some limits to life other than just doing whatever you want--people want and need those moral frameworks that come from mythological frameworks.

Religion is ideal for most people because it tells them what to do and when to do it so they can feel connected to something greater, i.e., meaning.

Unlike those who are obsessed with science and materialism, I think religion can be a good thing, a guide to a deeper experience of meaning beyond just being told what to do. Traditionally, Islam had the surface Sharia law but for those who looked for a deeper form of spirituality there was the Sufi tradition which corresponded to the Yogic tradition in South Asia and the Gnostic tradition in Christianity which was never totally wiped out.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Dec 10 2024 18:22 utc | 9

Posted by: Afro | Dec 10 2024 18:14 utc | 2

I wonder if there's going to be any pushback against the Israeli conquest of Southern Syria, and regardless, how far Netanyahu intends to go.

Officially they plan to take on 400km sq2 as a buffet, but I assume that's just a first step.

But they'll let us have the bill.

Posted by: robin | Dec 10 2024 18:25 utc | 10

The Sykes Picot carve up of the Middle East post Ottoman empire was artificial.
This was going to be the eventual result.
It's implementation was the question.
That's been answered.

Posted by: jpc | Dec 10 2024 18:27 utc | 11

so true b... thanks for articulating that...

the main thing is to keep the sheeple completely ignorant of this ongoing 'divide and conquer' strategy... as craig murray noted - the end of pluralism seems to be the desire of fascists.. he didn't say that exactly - i did..

Posted by: james | Dec 10 2024 18:28 utc | 12

The West overtly doesn't care about the Syrian people, and Israel will regard this as deserved penance for years of resistance. As they do with most of their former hosts, like Germany and Russia.

Perhaps the resistance media saying that this is great for the BRICS will be vindicated, but it smacks of cope in the face of serious geographic disadvantage and reduction in influence.

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Dec 10 2024 18:29 utc | 13

The fall of Syria will continue the destabilization of the region that began with Bush-Cheney's "shock and awe" campaign. I predict more instability. Assad's obstinacy had kept a group of countries that don't like each other much apart. Then there are the multitude of un-addressed problems that will stay that way because they are busy arguing with each other instead of plotting to overthrow Assad.

At this point coming under Turkish control might be the best thing that could happen to former Syrians, Turkey is in NATO and has a large well-equipped military, they can at least offer Syrians some protection. I am pretty sure the former Syrian army is just waiting for the word at to who to report to.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 18:29 utc | 14

@ bemildred #14

Erdogan doen't give a rat's ass about the Syrian people, all he cares about is eliminating the Kurds like they did the Armenians.

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 18:32 utc | 15

Officially they plan to take on 400km sq2 as a buffet, but I assume that's just a first step.

Posted by: Afro | Dec 10 2024 18:14 utc | 2

As a buffet? Pick and choose?
Or as a buffer, a space between.
I have read that they want a buffer...but probably having a buffet is mire real.

Posted by: HelenB | Dec 10 2024 18:33 utc | 16

The first lesson after Syria is that nobody in the current Alt-Media space deserves to be listened to ever again.

The second lesson after Syria is that the Empire won. Octavian beat Anthony...again. The only person who had the real power to stop it, and who had the obligation to stop it, sat on his rear end in the Kremlin while his client state was handily destroyed and everything he had worked for for two decades went up in smoke in a week. Make no mistake about it, this is a colossal disgrace for Russia from which they will not recover. Russia has no honor in this thing, none whatsoever. It is only a matter of time before Putin folds in Ukraine as well.

The third lesson after Syria is that those who want to cope by saying "Why should Russia fight in Syria when Assad's own army won't even fight" are the lowest of the low and the stupidest of the stupid. Assad's army was completely dependent on Russian support to have a chance of fighting. Russia could have very easily defeated these mercenaries, but decided not to. Russia threw Syria under the bus and them blamed Syria for not fighting. Pathetic. Furthermore, Russia's obligation to fight was not limited to the need to protect Syria itself. Russia needed to hold on to that piece of the geopolitical chessboard. Without it, the BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the good will of the Global South all evaporate. Russia just lost everything.

The fourth lesson after Syria is that we now live fully in the age of the untrammeled globohomo empire. There is no state actor who is going to do anything about it. If change is to come at all, it must come from the American people making the hard choices and sacrifices to enforce it upon their rulers. Pathetic Russia will do nothing to stop it. Our only hope is in me and you.

Posted by: Gnome Sane | Dec 10 2024 18:35 utc | 17

Gnome in Sanity@1835 Dec 10

Ho Hum. Yet another Russia basher. So who cuts your paycheck?

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:37 utc | 18

@ b who wrote
"
But what I find most difficult to predict is the consequence of the systematic de-secularization we can see in the wider area.

Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria ...).

The powers of eschatological (miss-)interpretations of various scriptures is difficult to estimate.
"

I posted a comment in your After Syria thread about the latest archeological findings in China show humanity has been "organized" for at least 300K years but here we are stuck in a 2-3K myth of monotheism that factions are using to justify their form of patriarchal and barbaristic social organization.

The hubris of those that think they know the way by the reading of their scriptures will lead to humanities demise. The ME is challenged to move from colonialism and its one way into a multipolar world that does not respect their religious myth, much less the ongoing fights about primacy of the myths.

Spirituality is our awe of the cosmos we live in and religions are myths of answers about our cosmos for those needing such. The myth of answers is used as justification for hegemony and deprecation of one will lead to deprecation of the other, IMO

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 10 2024 18:39 utc | 19

While at the first glance it may appear that Turkey/Israel/US has won something here I do not believe this to be the case, the US and Israel were enjoying a near perfect situation with respect to Syria. Israel had Russian permission to bomb any area of Syria with Russian understanding that they would not be molested/attacked and the Syria government/military would be kept in check and not be allowed to interfere with the Israeli's in any meaningful way.

The same can be said about the US, the Russians had an agreement with the US not to strike at US troops or allow the Syrian military to strike at US troops. Likewise Turkey and their proxies were for the most part protected under the same rules.

With the removal of the Russians and a compliant Syrian military those very solid protections are gone and something new will emerge and in the short to medium term it will be chaos. The Russians via Putin had a very stable hand on controlling the Syrian government , that is now gone.

I suspect the Russians are going to close down their bases in Syria as there is nothing to be gained from them at this point and much downside risk as the internal war will heat up in Syria. The US may also pull out now that the region will become much more unstable with the absence of the Russians and the Syrian government and we see the emergence of uncontrollable groups/dynamics.

This may become a huge headache for Turkey and it may be the downfall of Erdogan, same for Israel, both will attempt to take land/portions of Syria but nothing has really changed on the ground, it's still the same dysfunctional situation except with less stable people in control.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 10 2024 18:41 utc | 20

@ bemildred #14

Erdogan doen't give a rat's ass about the Syrian people, all he cares about is eliminating the Kurds like they did the Armenians.

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 18:32 utc | 15

A good point, what I said does not apply to the Kurds; but I expect Uncle Sugar to defend the Kurds, and possibly the Izzies too. All four of Iran, Turkiye, Iraq, and Syria were agreed about what a bad idea a Kurdish state was, now the remaining three will likely have a Kurdish statelet, at least, to go with the one across the border in Iraq. That will be a source of more instability.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 21

Gnome, see my first link in #7, there is excellent info (some of which I was unaware) in that short recap of the Assad dynasty. The truth is it was bound to fall at some point and neither Iran nor Russia could help.

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 22

"Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria ...)."- B

Former Ambassador Chas Freeman made the same observation as you on Judging Freedom podcast today..

Posted by: Charlie | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 23

If the Psychopathic Entity has ethnically cleansed all of Palestine then
Iran need not worry about hitting anyone but Zionists when it uses
dirty bombs or, eventually, nukes.

Posted by: librul | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 24

jpc@1827 /dec 10

Digging more deeply into the imposition of Sykes and Picot, representing the Rottenchild bank in City of London on one hand and the Rottenchilds as well as the Lazard Brothers on the other...and then behind the scenes of the Talmudist schemers are the even deeper dreadnoughts amongst the photo-Italian Old Black Nobility...the source of numerous popes, cardinals, archbishops, bishops and even the Jezzies.

The rabbit hole runs deep and mere politicians or alleged "statesmen" are but players in the game of Thrones.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:43 utc | 25

I appreciate Simplicious latest analysis - especially the explicit praise of Israel by the rebels ! Very weird.. Of course, now they look like utter fools.

I don't see how Syria's new suckers can threaten Israel at all. They look weaker and worse than the Arab governments that preceded them, fighting Israel, a joke. Can't see why Simpicious thinks otherwise.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 10 2024 18:44 utc | 26

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 10 2024 18:39 utc | 19

Amen. One day the fake religions of the sky pharaoh / sky satan (judaism, christianity and islam) will be gone. Even if it takes a few thousand more years. And without them, every human and every animal will feel the awe, love and eternity of the universe, like they have always felt, and feel them much more deeply.

Posted by: Jack M | Dec 10 2024 18:46 utc | 27

Psychohistorian @1839 Dec 10

Kudos. You get it. You are on the pathway. The Abrahamic belief systems are nothing but impositions branded into the lower level consciousness of their victims.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:46 utc | 28

@Afro
"I wonder if there's going to be any pushback against the Israeli conquest of Southern Syria, and regardless, how far Netanyahu intends to go. Officially they plan to take on 400km sq2 as a buffet, but I assume that's just a first step."

They openly explain what their goals are:

Bezalel Smotrich calls for Israel's borders to extend to Damascus

In an interview for the documentary, In Israel: Ministers of Chaos, produced by European public service channel, Arte, Smotrich claimed that Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

"It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus," he said, citing the “greater Israel” ideology, which envisions the expansion of the state across the Middle East. (...)

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/smotrich-calls-israels-borders-extend-damascus

Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 10 2024 18:47 utc | 29

@ psychohistorian #19

Not only was Marx right about religion being the 'opiate of the masses' he should have added 'the kool-aid of the oligarchy'.

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 18:48 utc | 30

Bemildred@1842 Dec 10

Correct. Instability and chaos amongst possible opposition to the ruling financier elite is a highly favored weapon to create chaos and thusly their overall program of Divide and Conquer marches on.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:50 utc | 31

Ottoman Empire 2.0 + Persia Empire 2.0 with the help of Russia and China and full cooperation of other oil -rich Golf states (BRICS) will effectivly secure south-west border of Eauroasian continent and trade routes (SCI). Great Israely project is doomed.....

Posted by: Jan | Dec 10 2024 18:54 utc | 32

Let's try to break this down into parts to make 20 year predictions more simple.

Between 2025-2045, what will likely happen to the coastal part of Syria with Alawi majorities?

Posted by: leaker5 | Dec 10 2024 18:55 utc | 33

Stop insulting the Turks. They are the real victims.

The Ottoman Empire has brought hundreds of years of peace to the region,
and if it still existed it would be the richest country in the world today.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Dec 10 2024 18:57 utc | 34

Chris Cosmos @1822 Dec 10

Always good to see perspectives from a spiritual point of view on this site. Many of our posters are still bedizened by crass materialism...a set of suppositions based on so-called "Enlightenment values" of rationalistic throwing out the spiritual baby with the proverbial bathwater.

Materialism as a religion is exemplified in that current insanity of consumerism. As a dedicated dumpster-diver, I do my best to preserve and ultimately share those throw-aways with those many who have been impoverished by the current insanity.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:57 utc | 35

Where I come from – bravo!

That not only in Middle East or in countries or cultures brought to submission. The same thing is happening all-over the Rules Based Order.

Declaration of Independence is about to become a hate-speech, we the people are no more, we hold no truth self-evident anymore; universal human rights become rights to universal perversion.

Enlightenment is becoming a burden, a well-informed citizen of its own means – without whom something like democracy cannot really exist – a menace.

Posted by: js | Dec 10 2024 18:59 utc | 36

The political borders in the ME are somewhat arbitrary. And the monarchial families relatively new. Even the nationalities are somewhat new.

Probably the rational next step is partition of Syria. (Screw "rule of law" and sacrosanct UN borders and the like.) I mean it was already de facto partitioned, but really partitioned now and progressing to de jure.

Then after that Lebanon. After that, I think the rest of the region is safe. Although Jordan could be a "stretch goal".

Oh...and of course, as always, the Kurds need to get screwed. That is their lot in life.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 10 2024 18:59 utc | 37

Bemildred@1842 Dec 10

Correct. Instability and chaos amongst possible opposition to the ruling financier elite is a highly favored weapon to create chaos and thusly their overall program of Divide and Conquer marches on.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:50 utc | 31

There are certainly plenty of people who like instability. "Never waste a good crisis." "Hey, let's throw stones at the cops!"

Rule by emergency is very popular, it's easy, has been that way for a long time. Ruling elites look much the same to me, with money or not. And criminals of course like a bit of instability too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 19:02 utc | 38

Aftermaths... there are plenty of good examples. Tribal, sectarian balkanization suits imperial forms of capitalism. Strong central states, secular nationhood and powerful symbolic narratives undergirding national identity can resist predation. This is what BRICS represents. And predation is the name of the game. All that cloak-and-dagger BS, exploding pagers, secret deals and bribery, fake jihadi nazism, lead back to shareholders, dividends, rent-seeking and resource theft.

As a result, the region will settle down into an extended period of strong state actors vying with or allying with each other for the loot. KSA, Qatar, Turkey, Israel, US, Russia, Iran. Ideology is a local smokescreen and a recruitment tool for the proxy fodder. The decisions are being made in boardrooms, shareholder meetings and embassy garden parties over cigars and whiskey, just like they've always been.

And Syria? It's proper fucked now. Israel has woken up to that reality first: when it comes to the state in Syria Israel abhors a vacuum. They knew perfectly well what happens when head-choppers get bored and have access to gear. The fable of the scorpion and frog comes to mind: the scorpion's gotta sting; head-chopper's gotta chop heads. They've already been caught saying that the road to Al-Quds begins in Damascus. That's a massive headache for Israel, hence the frantic destruction of all and all static military targets in Syria, including the remnants of the Syrian navy (imagine a suicide frigate ramming Haifa?).

The Turks have good gear but again the imagination is limited: the Kurds are hated because they occupy the loot Turkey wants. Recreating the Ottoman Empire? That history has vanished. Most Turks think an ottoman is something you rest your feet on. This is about Turkish vested interests getting paid.

It's always about getting paid. Getting paid so you can fuck off back to wherever you came from and pretend the place you looted and destroyed never existed, and pretend that you did it for noble reasons. Conrad's Heart of Darkness already made this point beautifully and tragically, so I'll leave it there.

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:02 utc | 39

Otoman Empire 2.0 + Persia Empire 2.0 + removing of Anglo-Sachson influance in Israel will ensure land corridor without additional extra fees for Anglo-Sachsons ....trade corridor from EuroAsia to Africa....checkmate

Posted by: Jan | Dec 10 2024 19:06 utc | 40

Observr @1822 Dec 10

Tangentially, you nailed it. The key word is "BELIEFS". Spirituality as against organized religion, particularly those Abrahamic impositional belief system...is NOT something imposed on the gullible or deracinated by overpowering rulers and manipulators.

Spirituality on the other hand is an intuitive, inspired product of Real-Eye-Zation. That form of grounded realism is difficult to achieve in urban settings...abstractions, in short. When one dwells amidst the daily conversation of the natural world, we learn a few things about reality.

Ask yourselves why the Mayans deserted their amazing and highly advanced cities some hundreds of years ago and hied out into the jungles and the mountains. Those who have contemplated the near probability that Mad Max situations in highly urbanized centers may be only months away...as the economy implodes and food gets extremely scarce...would be well advised to contemplate possibilities.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 19:06 utc | 41

If the last year taught us anything, it is that the Zionists have an unrestricted license to kill. Gaza had 2 million residents; Damascus has 2.5 million. Why would they stop there?

Posted by: JohnH | Dec 10 2024 19:06 utc | 42

This may become a huge headache for Turkey and it may be the downfall of Erdogan, same for Israel, both will attempt to take land/portions of Syria but nothing has really changed on the ground, it's still the same dysfunctional situation except with less stable people in control.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 10 2024 18:41 utc | 20

Erdo is making the play right now. He may end up "winning" or biggest loser. Erdo backs both parties hts & sna, but sna is the main one. Hts went south, sna went east which seems to be the real fight. The resources are in the east.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Is Erdo going to make a deal with usa to sellout the kurds?

Or

Are we going to see the kurds us and Israel linking up? Ive seen a few tgs where Israeli politicians are calling to link up with the kurds from the south of Damascus to the east.

If you start seeing usa troops killed in Syria blasted all over the msm, then you know what option was picked.

Posted by: Feck | Dec 10 2024 19:07 utc | 43

Global Satanic Death Cult "Agenda 2030" is proceeding as planned. All governments et al. are responsible. Only conceptual shift can resolve this global systemic crisis.

Posted by: KOB | Dec 10 2024 19:08 utc | 44

Russia and Iran finally release their Syrian yokes: Until the fall of Assad, Assad and his main backers, Russia and Iran, were the responsible party for Syria’s situation – all of its sorrows, all of its instability, all of its poverty and the general mess. Now who is responsible and accountable for Syria’s future? In one fell swoop, one mostly failed state went from being under Russia’s list of headaches and liabilities to being on Israel’s, Turkey’s, Jordan’s, and America’s list of headaches and liabilities – all of the Middle East actually must suffer the liabilities. The west will bear the blame when everything sours, as everything certainly will. The lack of democracy, the political arrests, the totalitarian laws, the civil strife, the corruption, and the dysfunction – all of it is now the problem of the west, not Putin, not Khamenei and not Assad. Moreover, the resources Iran and Russia wasted on a failed Syrian state will now be used to further strengthen their countries directly. A note to the west: Russia and Iran refused to take the bait. And now, the west will squander its resources to save and rebuild a country that the west destroyed. Russia only feared Syrian weapons falling into the hands of the Ukes and likely made an agreement with Israeli officials that Russia would not fight the jihadists in exchange for the Israeli destruction of any Syrian military equipment left behind in Syria that could “fall” into Ukrainian hands. A great day for us all!

Posted by: Mark Moore | Dec 10 2024 19:09 utc | 45

There will be at least 1 million refugees from Syria in the next 1-2 years. Will Russia allow the refugees to come to Russia and Poland so that they can go to Finland and Norway? Finland and Poland are NATO countries now so Russia may feel that it's justified for them to take care of the refugees who they created.

Posted by: dejavu | Dec 10 2024 19:09 utc | 46

Can Osmanli rule restore stability to Syria? The history of Kurdish rebellion indicates Turkey is not strong enough to subdue the competing actors vying for dominance of the nation. The only obvious organizing objective would be the liberation of Palestine but the power of the US has proven too great for such an endeavor. The next twenty years will almost certainly repeat the chaos seen in Libya since its 'liberation' by NATO.

Posted by: Keme | Dec 10 2024 19:10 utc | 47

quackquack@1818 Dec 10

Don't dismiss Hezbollah. They are still highly motivated and need to regroup after losing families and friends to the vicious bombing those enemies of humanity carried out on Lebanon. They retain a huge supply of missiles and their well-organized warriors are 95% intact.

Simply stated, Hezbollah is laying low, awaiting the chance that the Izzies will do something terminally stoopid.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 19:10 utc | 48

I was pondering the longe term (20+ years) consequences of the fall of Syria but have failed to come up with sensible predictions.

I admire your ambition in trying to look to the long-term. Personally I think the next six months are completely unpredictable.

Will we see a military clash between Turkey and Israel, or their proxies?

Will the US try to use a Kurdish insurgency into Turkey to try and destabilise Erdoğan?

Will there be a renewed flood of refugees towards northern Europe?

It’s a nest of angry snakes, which more and more looks like V V Putin stepped adroitly away from.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Dec 10 2024 19:10 utc | 49

Putin wanted to avoid WW3 in Ukraine but all roads lead to the inevitable after Syria.
Putin dropped Syria like Libya and its bases in exchange for what? Either blackmailed or Ukraine or he is a secret chabad like his brother Trump. "Move around, no room for the weak"
https://justicenetdz.blogspot.com/2024/12/poutine-une-autre-marionnette-juive.html

Posted by: elkermaahmed | Dec 10 2024 19:11 utc | 50

Posted by: Gnome Sane | Dec 10 2024 18:35 utc | 17

The fourth lesson after Syria ..There is no state actor who is going to do anything about it. If change is to come at all, it must come from the American people making the hard choices and sacrifices to enforce it upon their rulers. Pathetic Russia will do nothing to stop it. Our only hope is in me and you.
<-states are infiltrated by the class system

_.0006% Class 1. Oligarch: wealthy 6% seeking >wealth. King of mountain, Deep State?
_2.94% Class 2. POPFME: privately owned, publically financed multi-national entity.
_2.94% Class 3. Government: includes anything government local to global.
94.12% Class 4. Slaves: governed people blinded by the obligations of patriotism.
assume 100% of the population fits into one of the four classes of people.

its this class distribution that makes propaganda so effective.. and its this same class system that makes state reaction to human right abuses taking place someplace in the world so ineffective..

You are correct. only when all of the Class 4 people rise at the same time. will it be possible to do anything about it.. That day is coming I believe as more and more people understand history as taught in anybody's school is a lie, propaganda is a mind control device, the nation state system is a behavior control device which has been very effective in implementing "divide to conquer" strategies. But there is an underlying well hidden source at play here too which reared its head the day the president of the United Health Care got shot.. that source is the monopoly powers that the states in the Nation State System have transferred to private ownership.. by law, by corruption and by other means.

So the enemy class 4 will rise to eliminate will not be Class 3 (government) it will be Class Two the POPFM entities. When class 4 understand its Class 2 support for class 3 that keeps all class 4 persons in their respective jail cells the revolution that will matter, the one that will change the world will be a revolution by class 4 against class 2..

Posted by: snake | Dec 10 2024 19:13 utc | 51

We have plenty of examples from which to build a template : Somalia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya.

I note that Western countries are dispatching their Syrian 'refugees' back to their newly 'liberated' homeland whilst firmly slamming the door on any more before it all goes TU.

A race against time I feel.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Dec 10 2024 19:13 utc | 52

@7, @22

@7 the first link is contextless piffle.

Russia had no career in doing for Assad what Syrian boys would not against Turkey and U.S. in north and Israel and U.S. in south.

Leave Syria to the ugly American

Posted by: paddy | Dec 10 2024 19:14 utc | 53

The predictable outcomes under "usual circumstances" are not that difficult to extrapolate towards I presume. It should be a result somewhat comparable to either Iraq or Libya.
There are multiple groups with relatively incompatible interests, except for the actual headchoppers among the "rebels", who want their Caliphate and ethnic cleansing. The reaction of the States, Turkey, Israel, Iran, the Kurds and the Alawites will be that nobody really wants a rabid dog on their new property or in their immediate neighbourhood, not even the turkish handler, who unleashed them.

The first step thus should be that the dogs will have to go or will have to be "moderated" enough to accept their weakish role.
Then most parties might not seem to be too interested to invest too much into grabbing a piece of a failed state or fight the Kurds/Americans for the oil in the east. Some sort of Iraqi solution is the probable usual outcome, where the central government is too weak to do much about factually seperated parts of its country. The two countries that might be inclined to unhinge this kind of boring outcome are probably Israel and maybe Turkey. Problem with Turkey is that they might want a permament or quasipermanent (clientstate) kind of arrangement for themselves in the north of Syria, but as soon as they push for that the Kurds would want that for themselves and the States are still holding them up.

The more animosity actually ermerges the more some kind of Libya solution will appear, with (quasi-)indepentent Alawis at the coast and Kurds in the east and a "temporarily occupied" part for Israel in the south and factions occasionally having fights or skirmishes against each other. Most probable single outcome overall right now I'd say is the continuation of a mostly dysfunctional Syrian state with just some parts occupied by Israel for the forseeable future (so mostly the Iraq model).

Though if the involved countries made some backroom deals then these two "usual" outcomes fly out the window. The Turks and Jews might have one, maybe also the Russians and Turks and who knows what the Americans really want among their handful of different ruling factions.

Posted by: Roland | Dec 10 2024 19:14 utc | 54

President Assad has been vilified and demonized for quite some time (now reaching new heights) but the real history of Syria and the real reason for "foreign interference" is NEVER MENTIONED.

Please watch this video if you want to understand (in a nutshell) what really happened and what the real reason for "foreign" (mainly USUK) interference was:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfXddo5JH_s Stephen Gowans: The Long War on Syria (read the book!)

Here are some key points (partial transcript): MB = Muslim Brotherhood

In the mid 1950s London conspired with Washington to eliminate the “communist”, nationalist Baath party in Syria ...”a threat to Western economic interests”...spearheaded by Kermit Roosevelt ...(> overthrow of Mossadegh, 1953 in Iran); Roosevelt used MB to overthrow the Baathists (but failed); 1967 MB declared “Holy War” against “god-less government”;
from 1970: “rebels” were trained outside of Syria (just like today) by USUKF intel services; they launched major terror campaign: assassinating socialists, murdering state officials and killing army officers; assaulting military bases;
in 1973 President Hafez al Assad (father) oversaw drafting of constitution that promulgated a mission of the Syrian state: “to foster the unity of the Arab world to overcome its religious, sectarian differences, achieve Arab world’s liberation from foreign dominance”;
(achieved by) planning and public ownership of the commanding heights of the economy: he was denounced as a “communist” by Washington (he was not); ... but for US capitalism he

In the 198os Robert Baer (CIA) wrote:

“Syria is the epicentre of Islamic terrorism; when I first set foot in Damascus in 1980, I estimated that Assad had maybe 3 or 4 years left... the MB owned the street”, the mosque schools were teaching Jihad; the mosque public address system blared out a message of hatred and revenge”; I figured the guy is gonna get strung up on a lightpole in downtown Damascus along with a hole lot of other people”;

In 1980 the MB established the “Islamic Front of Syria” whose manifesto declared “war without end” until Baath Arab socialism was exterminated. Three things the “Islamists” (just like the Western imperialist powers) hate: Nationalism, secularism and socialism.
These are ideologies of European origin, foreign to the Koran, foreign to God... a “Godless implantation in the Muslim world, which must be exterminated”.
• In 1982 the MB ceased control of Hama, Syria’s 4largest city; a blood-soaked rampage ... killing policemen, executing government officials, killing soldiers; every Baath-socialist official was executed, many of them by decapitation; 8:24
• During the operation to quell the uprising the SG captured more than 15.000 foreign supplied machine-guns along with Jordanian and CIA-trained paramilitaries. Likewise insurgents today have been trained by the same agencies (also in Qatar);
• In the 1990s they established ties with other Islamist groups (UI) under the name “the National Front for the Salvation of Syria” (real purpose: for the “Salvation from” Arab nationalism, socialism and secularism)
• The front had 2 goals: assassinate Assad (near-term), the longer-term goal was to establish an Islamic state
jump to 2001: In the aftermath of 9-11 the retired General Wesley Clark recounted that he had been told at the Pentagon the US would be attacking seven countries: Iraq, Libya, Sudan, ...Lebanon, Syria and finally Iran): in 2002 Syria (+ Cuba) was added to the Bush “Axis of Evil” hit list; based on the same bogus charges (WMD, supporting Terrorism) that had been levelled at Iraq; (the first thing Paul Bremer did was to outlaw participation of any socialist political party in the administration (Baath members were “purged”) and to “order” the privatisation of a socialist economy)

Why is the US so opposed to the Baath party? Because their goal is
“To bring the politics and economies of the Arab world under the control of the people who live and work there”

(let that sink in ... and please do watch the last 10 minutes of Stephen Gowans’ talk – if you want to understand what the US "democracy" is all about: a Plutocracy on steroids (no matter who sits in the White House) ..

P.S. My heart goes out to the people of Syria ... my God, the USraeli Leviathan is "at the gate"...

Posted by: Medusa | Dec 10 2024 19:20 utc | 55

US versus Turkey

In the very near term we are likely to see fighting between the "united" green Syria, supported by Turkey, and Kurds, supported by the United States.

Al-Jolani and his HTS gang in Damascus is now the internationally and universally recognized government of Syria, fully supported by Kaja Kallas and the EU. It is diplomatically difficult for the US to go to war against this "international community".

My guess is that the Kurds will lose. Vae victis! They chose the wrong side.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 10 2024 19:21 utc | 56

I hope barflies will not limit the "After Syria" discussion to the Middle-East.

The fall of Syria reverberates across the entire global conflict.

TWO EXAMPLES:

1) Immediately after the fall of Syria, Trump called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. He could've done so the day after he was elected. Why did he wait?

My guess is that Trump felt that the fall of Syria invigorated his "peace through strength" policy. Trump has used such intimidation before: He used the riot he instigated on Jan6 to pressure Pence.

2) I expect the double-dealing and betrayal related to Syria will make diplomacy even more difficult (wrt Ukraine, Taiwan, Venezeula, and other 'hot spots')

Assad had argued for ejecting the Takfiri's from all of Syria. Putin wanted to try to bring Erdogan into the Russian orbit. And Erdogan played along right up to the point that he broke all agreements by unleasing the tafiri's into Syria. Turkey even applied to join the BRICKS only weeks before!

(I was one of the barflies that had warned that Erdogan could not be trusted.)

Then Assad was lulled into believing that "normalization" with the Gulf States was some sort of acceptance of his rule (one wonders what assurances he may have been given).

Putin and Assad were played. That is a 'lesson' that will not soon be forgotton.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 10 2024 19:26 utc | 57

I still fail to see what great "loot" there is in Syria? The oil is controlled by the US/Kurds it is my understanding and I doubt they are giving that up.

The main function that Syria can offer is proxy/launching pad for attacking the powers around it, aka destabilizing it. Israel can use it to destabilize Turkey via proxy and cause headaches for the Arabs but at the cost of assuming a degree of responsibility for the ground it takes, it's just another open air prison like Gaza or the West Bank for them in terms of any land they take. The whole Greater Israel theory is a joke given it is impossible to assimilate the people in the territories they conquer, they are just assuming headaches.

It is not altogether clear why Russia was even supporting this whole mess and being a guarantor of Turkish/US/Israel military forces in Syria, as that was really the primary function they were playing. This may be beneficial for Russia in the end as what exactly was Russia getting for guaranteeing the safety of US, Turkish and the Israel air force? Sounds like they were getting played yet again, also Assad and the Syria army were also serving as guarantors for US/Kurds/Turkish/IAF in Syria, the whole thing was a joke, no wonder some of them didn't fight.

The whole crazy setup was a product of Putin's/Kremlin hairbrained ideas and Russia striking "gentlement agreements" with the Turks/US/IAF/Kurds in order for the Syrian army to guarantee their safety, all while they are periodically bombing you, it's crazy, no wonder the Syrian army didn't fight.

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 10 2024 19:28 utc | 58

It is true that nobody knows what can or is going to be. Erdo is breathing down the Israeli neck; the USA is incapacitated to prevent neither Israel nor Türkiye. And Russian bases are still there. Also, the Caspian fleet has a long reach, with Cyprus being very fragile. All that without Iran or China involved.Yet.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 10 2024 19:29 utc | 59

Netanyahu continues to refer to events from WW2 to justify Israel's military activity:

"We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security. In this context, I instructed the Air Force to strike strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army to prevent them from falling into the hands of jihadists. This is similar to what the British Air Force did when it bombed the Vichy Regime that collaborated with the Nazis to keep it from falling into Nazi hands."

Applicable international law, which Israel is deliberately refuting, was largely codified in the aftermath of WW2.

Posted by: jayc | Dec 10 2024 19:30 utc | 60

I have been agitated and short fused lately. There is just so many things wrong with humanity these days.

I am reminded of the lyrics from Tool.

Some say the end is near
Some say we'll see Armageddon soon
I certainly hope we will
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit three-ring
Circus sideshow of
Freaks

Try and stay sane everyone.

Posted by: Suresh | Dec 10 2024 19:31 utc | 61

Why are Arab governments so weak?

Gaddafi and Assad were strong at one point, but then they let the infidels divide and conquer. The Gulf States are the worst. They're essentially mammon-worshipers who care nothing for their own peoples.

Now Qatar is offering to be a mediator if the various factions in Syria start killing each other off.

Honestly, Netanyahu could not write a better script if he tried.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 10 2024 19:32 utc | 62

Let me cite a classic case of imperialism. There emerged a feedback loop between Rome and the provinces in the late Republic. It worked like this: as a family with a nobiles tradition (or as an aspiring equestrian homo novus with good patronage) you wanted to win public office. The magistracies with imperium (praetor and consul) brought military commands from which derived the status and glory to elevate your family into the heights. The elite drive for this status was overwhelming. Wealth was useless unless it could be harnessed to that end. The electoral process was massively expensive. Inevitably a man like Cicero ended up in colossal debt. Where did the debt come from? The sub-senatorial elite (the 'equestrian order') made their money from the tax-farming concessions in the provinces, which were in turn protected by the deployment of praetors and consuls with extended military commands. You might start to see where this is going. Cicero borrowed vast sums to get elected, and needed his provincial command in Cilicia to obtain the bribes and kick-backs from the protection racket that ensured the systematic looting of the provinces. Rinse and repeat for over a century. That's how ancient empire worked, where money is merely the means to obtain political power and status. By the 50s BC the provinces were exhausted and hollowed out. That it would all fall apart was obvious not least because Rome was full of guys engaged in intense competition at the expense of the provinces (the impact on Gaul, for example, was genocidal). The average Roman soon discovered he could get paid by working closely with a big man, each of whom eventually became warlords. Civil war was the outcome, and the aftermath was the abandonment of the imperial feedback loop after the last warlord standing converted himself into Rome's preeminent citizen ('princeps'). The gravy train was ended, and the provinces reorganized into a form of governance that allowed them to flourish. The 'free republic' was hell for the periphery. The Principate redirected money back into the provinces which for the first time felt like they had a share in the system.

The point of this reminiscence is to suggest that the aftermath of our current conjuncture will be two stage: first, empire's sole solution is to keep doubling-down on the only thing it knows until the hammer breaks. Second, something weird happens: radical conservatism. That is to say, a movement emerges that is radically novel yet claims as its foundation a metaphysics that is transcendent. The great paradigm I'm thinking of is the French Revolution. I just can't yet see who the new ruling class might be or the basis of their power. Perhaps a neo-feudalism, corporatised with an ideological messianism? Frank Herbert was definitely onto something... but you've got to know your history!

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:32 utc | 63

From Reuters

Israel has ordered its forces to create a "sterile defence zone" in southern Syria that would be enforced without a permanent Israeli presence as it tightens its hold along the line between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday.

So the landed aircraft carrier in the ME for empire is growing in size when it is having trouble managing the area it has occupied for 76 years.

Russia, Iran and China continue to not give empire the war/quagmire they want and Syria will suck empire resources to manage if they want continued presence.

What does HTS think of Occupied Palestine's plans for Syria? How about Turkey?

The shit show continues until it doesn't

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 10 2024 19:32 utc | 64

"Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria ...)" this list could include the Russian Federation with its embrace of the Russian Orthodox church and the growing domination of the US Government by Christian Nationalist. In March 2024, the Russian Orthodox Church officially declared Russia’s “special military operation” to be a “holy war,” the first time the ROC has made such a statement since the Russo-Japanese War under Tsar Nicholas II.

Since Roman times Religion has been the tool of the state. The marriage of Church and State is not hard to understand. Religion provides a universal ideology to support the state and is used by states attempting to enforce ideological conformity. Individualism and individual rights are at odds with the needs of the state. The state being the primary instrument for ruling classes to maintain power. The failure of the State apparatuses using Marxist Leninism and or Nationalism to create social conformity has been apparent to ruling classes. Religion being primarily reactionary and counter to individualism, it meshes well with the authoritarian states which are being created to serve the interest of national ruling classes.

Posted by: Zargo | Dec 10 2024 19:33 utc | 65

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 21

3.5 Million Syrian refuges in Turkey, but Erdogan doesnt give a rat's ass about Syrians, only motorslug does. If Assad, Putin and Iran cared so much about Syria, why are those Syrian refugees in Turkey in the first place and not Russia, Iran or even Greece. Perhaps, the reason the Syrians laid down their arms against HTS is because after being hosted by Turkey for the past decade, they realize they would prefer to be ruled by Erdogan and Turkey than Assad, Iran or Russia. The lack of first hand knowlege about the region is striking.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 10 2024 19:36 utc | 66

I think what is going to happen is all the Empire players who have been working on smashing Syria for over a decade will attempt to achieve their goals over time. More land, a new pipeline to Europe, greater control of the Meds gas field, destruction of the Kurds, weakening of Russia in the region, demolition of Iran.

How all this plays out, how long it takes, and who comes on top is an open question

Posted by: circumspect | Dec 10 2024 19:36 utc | 67

Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 10 2024 19:28 utc | 57

The loot is the land itself, embedded with symbolic and ancient meanings. It's one of the most fought-over pieces of geography in human history. This is not South Dakota; every square inch of Syria is packed with millennia of significance for thousands of people. We need to rewire our definition of what 'resources' are. But if we are to see it in purely economistic terms: Syria is a medium, the great thoroughfare from east to west. It's the great pass that cuts through the vast Anatolian plateau to the north and the deserts of the south to provide access to the seaports of the great internet of antiquity, the Mediterranean. It's a fertile stretch that connects the Euphrates to the sea. There is a reason why Antioch was one of the wealthiest cities of the east. Syria was Alexander's path into Babylon and was the foothold that enabled the crusaders to apply pressure for centuries. Not to mention an ancient heartland of orthodox Christianity, etc etc. Let's not be narrow-minded about what counts as loot...

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:43 utc | 68

The West is headed towards Dark Ages MkII. All states and peoples who cling to (or are forced to abide by) the liberal capitalist ideal will follow the Empire down that drain. In some cases that will look like Britain, France and Germany, and in other cases that will be like Libya and Syria. The degeneration of Syria hastens that process.

Cultures that are struggling to attain something beyond liberal capitalism (basically China) will carry the torch of civilization while the rest of the world wallows in the mud, worshipping their totems and invisible sky daddies. Societies that can break free from liberal capitalism and its empire and throw their lot in with China will be among the New Age masters. The Middle East had a shot at being in that cohort, but no more.

Keep in mind that people’s consciousness arises from the material conditions of their existence. In societies experiencing protracted economic decline, the consciousness of the peoples in those societies will contract such that they descend into mysticism and magical escapism (religion). It isn’t religion that is causing the decline, rather the decline is causing the religiousity.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 10 2024 19:47 utc | 69

There is a large silenced group of religious Jews who want nothing to do with Israel.

Israel is as religious as Donald Trump, which is to say, not at all.

Religion has always been a tool of power, certainly in the West. The Romans co-opted Christianity and fused it with pagan faiths (Christmas, etc).

As I always argue to not judge by words but by actions, surely the actions of martyrdom in Islam make it a more substantive religious power than many others. Some exceptions, of course, for the Russian Orthodox martyrs who are devout and courageous straining the limits of belief.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 10 2024 19:48 utc | 70

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 18:42 utc | 21

3.5 Million Syrian refuges in Turkey, but Erdogan doesnt give a rat's ass about Syrians, only motorslug does. If Assad, Putin and Iran cared so much about Syria, why are those Syrian refugees in Turkey in the first place and not Russia, Iran or even Greece. Perhaps, the reason the Syrians laid down their arms against HTS is because after being hosted by Turkey for the past decade, they realize they would prefer to be ruled by Erdogan and Turkey than Assad, Iran or Russia. The lack of first hand knowlege about the region is striking.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 10 2024 19:36 utc | 65

It is. (Not that I have any. I've known some West Asians, nice people. But politics I just like to read a lot. I knew a Palestinian, moved here age 5, we got along really well. I helped them fix their swamp cooler once. His girl friend was Pakistani. That was early 80s. Only much later did I understand the social implications of that.)

It's not that I like Erdogan, but you make relevant points, he looks like the best option ready to hand. He isn't going to like having his new dominions disorderly or unproductive. Of course, some of his former colleagues will dispute that, but at least he can put up a good fight, he has lots of military stuff, NATO needs Turkey, he sits in a very important geographical spot, etc. etc. If anybody can check the Izzies, it is Turkey.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 10 2024 19:50 utc | 71

RE: Posted by: silverfoxes | Dec 10 2024 19:28 utc | 57

Where do you get the noise that Russia is a “guarantor” of anything outside of what was, at one time, “Astana” agreement? Which involved only Iran, Syria, Turkey & Russia. with a separate “air” deconfliction zone agreement with US regarding air space (that US broke daily), zero deal with Israel (Syria’s problem) and Kurds et el.

I swear, people are just making crap up about Syria anymore. After 2015 Syria was a destroyed, disjointed, war torn, poverty stricken, land of enclaves with clan leaders all doing whatever they wanted. And again, it’s name is SYRIA,
Not Russia. Sure, blame “Putin” that Humpty Dumpty couldn’t put Syria back together again.

How about concentrating on the f**king culprit of this whole f**king mess, FFS! The USReal, US/EU Western Anglo f**king evil , mass murderers, destroyer of other nations, & enemy of all mankind all over the globe, instead of chastising “Putin” for wanting the bloodshed stopped in some way.

“The whole crazy setup was a product of Putin's/Kremlin hairbrained ideas and Russia striking "gentlemen agreements"

This is so f**king stupid of a statement “product of Putin”,
Go f**k yourself, you can’t even lay the destruction of Syria at the feet of the Western genociders where it belongs, the whole f**king ME is dripping with blood because of those motherf**kers, no one else.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Dec 10 2024 19:51 utc | 72

i suppose anything that doesn't include the continuation of the genocide can be chalked up as a win, but that might be asking too much

Posted by: paquo | Dec 10 2024 19:52 utc | 73

If it has to be Armageddon, i just hope it comes in the form of Karmageddon.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Dec 10 2024 19:54 utc | 74

Thanks, b!

Just earlier today I was discussing the same issue (of radical religious movements/sects gaining political power) with a coworker, who thought I was joking with him until I showed him photos of a secular 1950s version of Kabul and Teheran...

And it's all thanks to the anglo-zionist IV Reich and its short-sighted policy of supporting fringe lunatics to wage proxy wars halfway around the globe, led by the perfidious maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend... until he isn't".

P.S. Barflies should be well aware of the fact that this process essentially began a century ago, with the Brutish Empire and its support and role in the creation of salafist Saudi Barbaria...

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Dec 10 2024 19:58 utc | 75

Lots of puke on the barroom floor today. I mirrored Escobar's article then added commentary and additional questions, "And Now Pepe Escobar's Analysis", which adds to my previous two items on the Syrian tragedy. For those who can access it, I suggest Finnian Cunningham's short SCF essay, "Syria after 13 years of U.S. state terrorism… what do you expect?", the following being one of several key points:

"The final collapse of Syria did not come after a 13-day blitzkrieg. It came after 13 years of non-stop state terrorism by the United States and its European NATO allies. The earlier phase of U.S.-sponsored proxy terrorism (2011 to 2020) was checked by the intervention of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. But the West’s proxies weren’t defeated definitively. In retrospect, that may be seen as a fateful strategic blunder."[My Emphasis]

I continue to speculate on Assad's behavior--why did he make the choices he did that caused Syria's downfall? He said no many times to those who had proven capable of help, while hoping to get help from those who had already shown they too wanted him gone despite the superficial welcome back by the Arab League.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 10 2024 19:59 utc | 76

@ turk #65

Erdogan cares only enough about Syrian refugees to get them out of Turkey and back to Syria, once he has eliminated the Kurds that is.

"Ankara is also seeking to use the SNA to weaken the SDF, which is dominated by the armed wing of the Kurdish party PYD, a sister organization of Turkey’s Kurdish party PKK, which is designated as terrorist by Ankara, the U.S., and the E.U..
Turkey has two other main objectives. First, they aim to carry out the forced return of Syrian refugees in Turkey back to Syria. Second, they want to deny Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and more specifically undermine the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES, also called Rojava), which would set a precedent for Kurdish self-determination in Turkey, a threat to the regime as it is currently constituted."

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 20:00 utc | 77

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:43 utc | 67
Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 10 2024 19:47 utc | 68

Two gems among an exhaustive search thru hundreds of posts of coal.
Thank you.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Dec 10 2024 20:00 utc | 78

"The whole Greater Israel theory is a joke given it is impossible to assimilate the people in the territories they conquer, they are just assuming headaches."

Who says they plan to assimilate anyone?

"The loot is the land itself, embedded with symbolic and ancient meanings. It's one of the most fought-over pieces of geography in human history. ...Let's not be narrow-minded about what counts as loot..."

Well said.

Thomas

Posted by: Thomas | Dec 10 2024 20:03 utc | 79

"Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria ...).

The powers of eschatological (miss-)interpretations of various scriptures is difficult to estimate."

b

I agree, as far as you go, but I think you maybe missing a further point.

I would argue that the West is, as or more religiously motivated, when you consider the Religion of Woke.

Is it not a Faith when one believes that a man can have a baby? Is it not faith to believe that real gender is fluid? Is it not faith White people are inherently , unconsciously racist?

Yet Woke Religion is even more strident than say Christianity: in Christianity if you are a good Serf, private yourself on earth you will be rewarded with Heaven in the afterlife.

In the Woke religion you get your 'Heaven' on earth in your mortal coil- as you chase away all the non believers with 'cancelling', rigging elections, et al a 16th century witch hunt now digitized.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 10 2024 20:04 utc | 80

Great piece on the Syria collapse by Dr Rob Campbell Substack. He usually concentrates on the Ukraine war but has done a piece on Syria today which betters Simplicius.

Posted by: C avery | Dec 10 2024 20:07 utc | 81

Sometimes in fictional works such as theater and film you have a play within a play, a fiction within fiction. Such as in Shakespeare (“methinks the king protests too much”) or in the Game of Thrones, in Bravos. On the world stage Israel and the Middle East is the play within that shows the world what the west is.

Israel plays the starring role as the predatory settler colonial entity driven by a collective myth of racial and religious supremacy. Spinning narratives of entitlement to commit theft, dispossession, betrayal and murder with self righteous gaslighting mixed in. In Israel we see the entire Anglosaxon led west which has always been an ethnic cleansing genocidal project. In this art Hitler’s Nazis were the protégés of the grand masters the European settler Americans. In Israel however the old masters have met their match.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Dec 10 2024 20:08 utc | 82

Worth a look, the interviewee's background supports the plausibillity of his assessments:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-assads-fall-the-possible-splintering-of-syria-buoys-hopes-for-a-new-middle-east/

Posted by: neutrino | Dec 10 2024 20:09 utc | 83

Woke?.....yyyyaaaawwwwnnnnnn....zzzzzz....zzzz

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 20:11 utc | 84

France 24, 09/12/2024 - 19:59

European countries suspend Syrian asylum bids following Assad's fall
Europe
________________
A growing number of European countries including Austria, Britain, Germany, Sweden and Norway on Monday announced they were suspending their processing of Syrian asylum applications after rebels ousted the country’s dictator Bashar al-Assad over the weekend.

European countries put asylum applications from Syrians on hold until further notice on Monday after rebels seized the Syrian capital and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia following 13 years of civil war.

The decision, which affects tens of thousands of open claims, reflects the rapidly changing political situation in Syria as well as a resurgence of right-wing parties across Europe keen to restrict immigration.

Germany opened its doors wide to a surge of asylum seekers in 2015 at the height of Syria’s civil war, and is now home to nearly a million Syrians, the largest community in Europe.

The Berlin interior ministry said on Monday it would not process asylum requests until there was more clarity on political developments in Syria. Britain paused decisions on asylum claims as well, with the interior ministry saying it was assessing the situation. [...]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241209-european-countries-suspend-syrian-asylum-bids-following-assad-s-fall

Posted by: Gene Poole | Dec 10 2024 20:17 utc | 85

In Muslim countries, religion is a choice made by the whole of society; like driving on the right.
In Western European countries, religion is an individual choice. For European political and business leaders, religion, people, tribe, are quaint concepts, no longer relevant for todays' society.
Europe shows it's possible to create a society where religion no longer is relevant. But it also shows that two societies compete, the one without religion tends to lose.

Posted by: Passerby | Dec 10 2024 20:17 utc | 86

"Keep in mind that people’s consciousness arises from the material conditions of their existence. In societies experiencing protracted economic decline, the consciousness of the peoples in those societies will contract such that they descend into mysticism and magical escapism (religion). It isn’t religion that is causing the decline, rather the decline is causing the religiousity."

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 10 2024 19:47 utc | 68

Absolutely, well said-thanks!

Posted by: canuck | Dec 10 2024 20:17 utc | 87

The rabbit hole runs deep and mere politicians or alleged "statesmen" are but players in the game of Thrones.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:43 utc | 25

Fair point.
Patroklos makes very good observations as well.
It's always been a land of worth throughout the millenia.

There is a reason why Antioch was one of the wealthiest cities of the east. Syria was Alexander's path into Babylon and was the foothold that enabled the crusaders to apply pressure for centuries. Not to mention an ancient heartland of orthodox Christianity, etc etc. Let's not be narrow-minded about what counts as loot...

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:43 utc | 67

Posted by: jpc | Dec 10 2024 20:18 utc | 88

The rabbit hole runs deep and mere politicians or alleged "statesmen" are but players in the game of Thrones.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 10 2024 18:43 utc | 25

Fair point.
Patroklos makes very good observations as well.
It's always been a land of worth throughout the millenia.

There is a reason why Antioch was one of the wealthiest cities of the east. Syria was Alexander's path into Babylon and was the foothold that enabled the crusaders to apply pressure for centuries. Not to mention an ancient heartland of orthodox Christianity, etc etc. Let's not be narrow-minded about what counts as loot...

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:43 utc | 67

Posted by: jpc | Dec 10 2024 20:18 utc | 89

My mother has a cousin, who worked as a computer engineer for the government. He tried to flee Syria to Iraq, but his car broke down in deir ezzor. He went hoping to find people to help him but the 'rebels' killed him.

In the same time, a Syrian I know who is pro rébellion shows me pictures of rebels taking photos with christian monks.

In the same time also, rebels are taking weapons storage and personnal weapons from people in the coastal area (previously pro Assad), and they are calling the ancient army members to go to Homs.

I think the massacres have not yet begun, but they're on their way.

Atrocious moment to be there. Thank you Ergodan, you son of a bitch.

Posted by: Animal | Dec 10 2024 20:18 utc | 90

Posted by: motorslug | Dec 10 2024 20:00 utc | 76

The "Good" Kurds, who only want peace and their pinup girl soldiers, against the "Bad" Turks, got it.

I respect Kurdish people, just not Kurdish poltics.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 10 2024 20:18 utc | 91

Maybe it is easier to see it if in the following one removes any focus on the name Assad:

1. Syria was entirely dependent on Russia and Iran.
——— are anyone going to argue against this?

2. For whatever reasons Syria was destroyed.
——— are anyone going to argue against this?

3. The lack of defense of Syria has to be in some way or another due to failures of Syria, Iran, and Russia.
——— are anyone going to argue against this?

4. Blaming Syria is meaningless since it does no longer exist.
——— are anyone going to argue against this?

5. Thus Iran and Russia are left with the consequences and ramifications; the new status quo.
——— are anyone going to argue against this?

Are not points 1 to 5 logical, rational, congruent, correct, and factual?

I think they are thus to me Gnome Sane ( Dec 10 2024 18:35 utc | 17 ) looks entirely correct.

I hate it but it looks like the reality of it as it appears here and now.

Unless something historically enormous happens, some yet another massive twist (but I realize this is my own cope).

I never saw this coming and never would have expected it or believed anyone saying it (and for the most part I still don't understand it).

Perhaps the largest shock is that it seems that behind the scenes all three of Russia and Iran and Syria had strong indications all of this was going to happen, some of it weeks in advance, some of it for months, and some of it perhaps also for years.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 10 2024 20:19 utc | 92

Religion of Woke, LOL. C'mon canuck.

Hey I'm reading a book that made me think back to some of your comments on indigenous cultures, particularly in the Americas. It's called "The Racket - A Rogue Reporter vs. the American Empire" by Matt Kennard, a Brit who used to work for the Financial Times and wrote for various Wurlitzer organs like NYT and WaPo. He got fed up with the overt self-censorship and toeing of the Imperial line so he quit and went off on his own for projects like Declassified UK, etc. Anyway, you are seemingly familiar with the mining industry inasmuch as it can all be grouped together, and I was never aware of the scope and scale of indigenous resistance to their operations in Africa, but more so, Latin America. Does that color your opinion on native cultures or nah?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 10 2024 20:19 utc | 93

Thought: US/Western/Israeli systematic destruction of stable, independent, secular governments in the Middle East causes brain-drain emigration of the best and brightest to be harvested for the benefit of the West, and leaves behind sectarian strife and failed states that the West and Israel can dominate and exploit.

The sectarian jihadists serve as useful tools of the US/Israel. Netanyahu funded and fostered Hamas over the more secular Palestinian organizations. The West targeted secular leaders like Hussein, Qadaffi, Assad. They've used extremism against secular governments starting in 1979, fostering Wahhabi extremism in order to overthrow the then secular government of Afghanistan. The US built sectarianism into the post-invasion Iraqi constitution. Stability and development in Muslim countries that don't bend the knee to US/Israeli hegemonism is not allowed.

Unfortunately, the same playbook is probably being carried out in Syria. The propagandized Syrian diaspora also serve as useful tools. Western media exclusively shows the publicly cheering ones, but do they realize that their country is likely to suffer the same sad fate as Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Ukraine? People in many of those places were also shown by Western media as cheering when their governments were overthrown by the West. Are the people in those places now better off for it?

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Dec 10 2024 20:19 utc | 94

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 10 2024 19:47 utc | 68
It isn’t religion that is causing the decline, rather the decline is causing the religiousity.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 10 2024 19:48 utc | 69
Religion has always been a tool of power, certainly in the West.

Religion is a survival ideology.. it offers as a promise that which cannot be verified. and it takes its power from the fact that people are divided into two groups. Those who believe things (they base their decisions on their beliefs with utter disregard for evidence, history or fact) while the 2nd group are people who refuse to decide or act on anything until they have facts which can be supported by the rules of evidence.

The narrative of a religious ideological is presented as a promise that there is a path to survival; according to the promise, survival is available only to those whose behaviors and thoughts comply with the teachings of the religion.

Ideologies create a surround sound totally controlled information environment. Narratives are easy to sell, beliefs are easy to create, when the information environment blocks all competing ideas, facts or discoveries.
Nothing anyone can find challenges either the ideology or the narrative.

Posted by: snake | Dec 10 2024 20:20 utc | 95

France was described on France-Info radio as "considering" also issuing a freeze on asylum requests. Could France's reported heavy involvement in the preparation of the overthrow be causing them to hesitate?

Posted by: Gene Poole | Dec 10 2024 20:21 utc | 96

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 10 2024 19:43 utc | 67

So well done I have to let chatGPT immortalize it in rhyming iambic pentameter:

Patroklos Tale

The loot is not mere gold, but lands profound,
With meanings ancient, deeply rooted ground.
For every inch of Syria holds its tale,
Of battles waged and histories that prevail.

This is no South Dakota's prairie plain,
But land where myths and ancient truths remain.
A place where cultures clashed and empires grew,
A crossroads steeped in meaning, ever true.

Through Syria, the east and west entwined,
A thoroughfare of trade and thought combined.
The Anatolian heights to deserts vast,
A bridge where seas and fertile rivers passed.

Its wealth was not just fields or waters pure,
But access, power—histories that endure.
Antioch flourished, riches unsurpassed,
A gem whose light through centuries was cast.

Through Alexander’s march, its path was made,
The ground where crusades’ pressures long were laid.
A heart of faith, where ancient creeds took root,
A legacy as rich as any loot.

So redefine what "resources" may mean,
The spoils here are more than what is seen.
For Syria’s worth is far beyond the eyes,
Its treasure lives in what it signifies.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 10 2024 20:25 utc | 97

I think, at this point, assuming Putin isn't planning on creating in Ukrainia a Syrian-type ceasefire that will encourage DC/London/Jerusalem to dismember Russia at a future time [ie slow-motion-surrender]:

Then, as a response to DC/London/Jerusalem's provocation Russia could transfer nuclear arms to Iran in sufficient quantities to make a US/Israeli 1st strike unthinkable. Do it secretly, get it deployed/dispersed and then announce the fact. This would rebalance the region and restore some of Russia's lost credibility in the ME.

Erdogan's megalomania is placed in check, Israel really can't say shit since they been "crying-wolf" for twenty years now, DC/London now have a new North-Korea to tip-toe around. And all of sudden, Russia's bases in ex-Syria are not suspended in space.

Posted by: S Brennan | Dec 10 2024 20:28 utc | 98

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 10 2024 19:59 utc | 75

#############

I read something yesterday and it made me think of the bar.

"Political allegiances are always transitory."

On the outside as laymen, it makes a sort of sense for us to assume our morals and values are common and common sense. Our egos and sense of identity are premised on our conception of what is good and what is not.

Erdogan, Putin, Xi, Khameni, Bibi, Assad, Biden, and Trump all owe no one anything, and trying to satisfy the expectations and demands of others may prove to be their undoing.

I feel bad for Bashar in that he didn't have the right people advising him or if he did, he chose to ignore them.

It makes me shake my head when I read some of these critiques of sovereign leaders (obviously excluding anyone "democratically" elected). The job they have to do is unbelievably difficult, trying to balance interests while staying alive, and maintaining power long enough to execute a longer-term vision, as the higher the stakes, the greater the forces attempting to subvert/destroy them.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 10 2024 20:28 utc | 99

voici peut-être un résumé sur les conséquences de la chute de la Syrie
pour les 20 prochaines années et sans doute même au-delà

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjwNAt1nek8

Posted by: limousin87 | Dec 10 2024 20:30 utc | 100