Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 29, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-285

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Kellogg’s Corn Flakes everywhere these days,

plans by NATO member states to initiate a major ground force deployment to Ukraine, and to temporarily end ongoing hostilities with the goal of eventually turning the tide of the conflict. Citing its intelligence sources, the agency reported that amid mounting Ukrainian and allied losses on the frontlines, NATO members were increasingly in favour of ending the hostilities along the current battle lines. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, this would allow Western Bloc states to rebuild Ukraine’s much depleted forces to “prepare it for an attempt at revenge,”

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russian-intel-western-plans-troop-deployments-ukraine
Like the new NATO troops will have any more shells than the Ukies have at present.

Posted by: gT | Nov 30 2024 15:07 utc | 201

Now for more interesting paralels, 1609, the spanish hegemon was exhausted and financially bankrupt, rings a bell? A dozen years truce but still 40 years to go for the final curtain.
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 30 2024 10:36 utc | 160
Interesting point, but not fully apropos. The Spanish governmental model is extractive, using an entrenched class. It’s almost a caste system. It is still in place throughout Latin and South America. This system “got lucky” with the importation of gold. It is not a growth model.
Granted, the US model has some parallels with the gold import model because the US deploys fiat currency. However, the US will have pulses of economic growth as long as investments in innovation will have access to capital. So the decline will be different. Drying up of access to capital by fiat will be the major factor is my guess.

Posted by: frithguild | Nov 30 2024 15:08 utc | 202

RE: Posted by: Salmon | Nov 30 2024 14:11 utc | 187
“Thanks for a good post. You are right.
Europe was never so united against Russia.
Russia is in a terrible situation.
Only a pre emptive strike could change this.”
You are the same poster on the Open Palestine thread that claimed “Israel” “won” and Hezbollah was just picking up their marbles and going home.
And here you claim Russia’s “terrible situation”, with their hands down unbeatable, indefensible weapon of mass destruction that is non-nuclear and could wipe the whole of EU in one hour, and suggest Russia needs to “pre-emp” a bunch of euro barking dogs because of their “terrible situation”…
I see who you are.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Nov 30 2024 15:11 utc | 203

LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 14:58 utc | 201
That take on Trump is spot on and makes Trump very difficult to predict. His build up to the meeting with young Kim in north Korea. The social media stuff with Rocketman and so for. The only Russian president to ever meet with a north Korea leader and not only that, he flew into NK to meet with him.
On the other side of the coin, he is the one who annexed Syria’s oil and wheat growing regions, formally recognized the Golan heights as Israeli and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. It was also under Trump that the serious militarisation of the Asia Pacific began in preparation for the war on China. Prior to Trump, the southern hemisphere was free of nukes and likely to survive and all out nuke war in the norther hemisphere. Now all the American bases across Australias north will have nukes pointed at China so now there will be many Chinese and Russian ICBM’s with Australian coordinates programed in. Prior to that, any nuke strike may have been limited to the long running CIA/Pentagon base at Pine Gap.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 15:18 utc | 204

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 15:18 utc | 205
##########
Being scared and intimidated by Trump plays into his hands.
Oz pointing its nukes at China is funny to me.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 15:32 utc | 205

gT@202….if as everyone likes to state, 404 and NATO are out of ammo, down to reconditioned washing machines, why is Russia still tied up on the LOCC and not celebrating in Transnistria and Odessa?
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 30 2024 15:36 utc | 206

*** Now all the American bases across Australias north will have nukes pointed at China so now there will be many Chinese and Russian ICBM’s with Australian coordinates programed in. Prior to that, any nuke strike may have been limited to the long running CIA/Pentagon base at Pine Gap.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 15:18 utc | 205
Well stated existing calculus. There is a new factor, however. Much like how hypersonic technology has made carriers obsolete, I am tending to believe that Oreshnik type technology makes tripwire bases obsolete. They can be destroyed without actual physical occupation or nuclear strikes. Will the US cavalry really rush in and under what circumstances is the ultimate question.
Governments that are not fully captured will view tripwire bases as a liability, much like Călin Georgescu in Romaina. The vote nullifying forces are in overdrive there, so I surmise Georgescu is really over the target.
The other side of the same coin is whether the “west” has enough to still buy Romainian suzerainty. So are tripwire bases that can be turned into swiss cheese worth the trouble anymore?
I also surmise that such Jedi mind tricks will not be enough to a hold back trend that will act like a tide. We shall see

Posted by: frithguild | Nov 30 2024 15:39 utc | 207

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 15:32 utc | 206
“Oz pointing its nukes”
This place is hilarious! This week I also learned that NATO gained Norway and Denmark as new members after the russian invasion & rapine of the Ukraine started. And russia was trying get Constantinople BACK in WW I.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 30 2024 15:40 utc | 208

LoveDonbass@202
“Russia holds Trump’s cards.” Thanks, we need more humour around here.
There’s a new Dealer coming to the table, let’s wait to see who wins best Stand Up routine. It’s not like the real war has started yet. Has it! Or is NATO bagged and tagged, strapped over the Bears bonnet, with Uncle Sam holed up and outta ammo?
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 30 2024 15:45 utc | 209

Oz pointing its nukes at China is funny to me.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 15:32 utc | 206
Like the Ukroids, Australians have chosen to become expendable American cannon fodder. I used to be concerned for the future of my children and the other young people of Australia but they have now all chosen to follow the American pied piper so their destruction is pretty much assured.
I still have empathy for those we attack on American and British instructions but have zero empathy for those about me that are fully aboard the American runaway train.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 15:46 utc | 210

the russian invasion & rapine of the Ukraine
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 30 2024 15:40 utc | 209

“i could choose to not make a fool for myself, but then i wouldnt be anything at all!”

Posted by: Justpassinby | Nov 30 2024 15:58 utc | 211

” The Russians did what they could to avoid slaughtering the Ukrainians to achieve their security.The Ukrainians however chose to be expendable proxies of Nato so now they are being expended.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 4:18 utc | 116 ”
Are you a politician? Its a YES or NO answer. Why are you avoiding a the question?

Posted by: Salami | Nov 30 2024 16:08 utc | 212

Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 15:46 utc | 211
Most people in most countries don’t want wars. But those who get to the top in politics seem to dislike war a lot less.
Don’t think the Aussies want a war with China, but not sure they should be letting them in. When I was in Melbourne Central Library one Saturday, pretty much everyone in the Reading Room was Chinese, studying away. There’s the new Australian elite if they’re not careful.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 30 2024 16:14 utc | 213

frithguild | Nov 30 2024 15:39 utc | 208
Australia signed up to the wrong side. American MIC looting of Australia is now fully underway and so Australia’s economic destruction is baked in and that will be greatly enhanced by the forth coming sanctions on China. If the war on China progresses to armed conflict, then Australia will also undergo military destruction.
Romania. The Romanians are far smarter than I thought. Hopefully they can pull themselves out of the American fire by I did read the elections were annulled or something by the courts because the American puppet did not win. If the Romanians are to save themselves from destruction, they may well have to dump this so called democracy rubbish and take up arms.
(According to the Americans, any country that is democratic votes in the American candidates who are loyal to the Americans and not their own country and people.)

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 16:17 utc | 214

Posted by: Trubind1 | Nov 30 2024 14:56 utc | 199
The Western media are largely irrelevant to their populations, Nov 5 showed that, trouble is its traditional opponents have not cottoned on yet. Bottom line, who gives a flying F what they say or think, ‘stepping on the bodies of their comrades to assault our positions’ really? Tell me about Kamala’s latest picks for her Cabinet, or, given her last disastrous media appearance, was that from a drinks cabinet?
As for comments about Trump, they remind me of the historian who said, ‘the winners write history, unless your Russia in which case the losers get to explain how they lost. Trump won, period, the people who have endless theories about why he won are often the same people who confidently predicted he wouldn’t, so perhaps the motives that drive their predictions might be questionable or at least questioned.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 30 2024 16:23 utc | 215

YetAnotherAnon | Nov 30 2024 16:14 utc | 214
The Australian government, even if not fully aboard and enthusiastic about American wars will do as they are told by the Americans or like whitlam be replaced. The Australian brain dead public watches American television, is on American social media and is fully brainwash. Doomsday goldfish – mindless zombies.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 16:26 utc | 216

“The main lesson of Operation Barbarossa has been learned. Back then Hitler went for too much too quick. Had he consolidated his positions for a few decades, established peace with the UK and the US, etc., then he could have gone for the kill against the USSR.”
@ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 12:01 utc | 174
You misunderstand who was the actor and who like Hitler and the Germans were being played.
There were no decades available. Nikolai Starikov who is no admirer or defender of the nazis, still recognises that Hitler had a war economy and there wasnt much time to wait. Hitler naively expected to be eventually accepted as a partner by the British but Barbarossa was made to happen since the British and the US wanted it and did not allow a separate peace. Britain masterminded a most insidious action to sabotage Stalin’s effort to form an alliance to contain Hitler. But the US calculated that they would benefit enormously from this war having their industry safely located out of reach for Hitler’s and Japan’s airforce.
Importantly there was never any intention of allowing a normal German nationalism to prevail. Hitler was one of the cult members of just one of dozens of cults that the ruling oligarchy was creating.
They create cults in order to prevent rational thinking to spread to a nation. And it is now busy causing people in the Ukraine and Middle East to act irrationally.
Based on the stupidity of the neocon cult in the US, Saudi arabia for which initially the oligarchy prepared that particular cult, has to an extent lifted itself out of the plan prepared for them by the empires oligarchy. Cults constitute a recurring element or tool in the imperial toolbox and has been repeatedly employed by the very old phenomenon of a ruling oligarchy.
The ageold pattern of opposing camps are the oligarchy’s crew of cults vs the rationally thinking nation builder seeking win-win rather than permanent war.
People are emotional and tend to hook on to some cult even though many socialists mistakenly see themselves as rationally thinking.
We are not born scientists.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Nov 30 2024 16:28 utc | 217

Gilbert sez take a chill pill:

The Great Game on Russia’s Pervy Kanal suggests Moscow is satisfied that its warnings against further use of American, French and British missiles to strike deep into Russian territory have finally been heard in Washington, London and Paris. Accordingly, it will not attack Kiev until and unless there are new Ukrainian attacks using ATACMS, Storm Shadow or Scalp.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/11/29/we-can-all-breathe-easy-the-russians-will-not-presently-attack-kiev-or-some-nato-country/
My impression is when he says Russia “will not attack Kiev,” he means the response to “decision making centers,” possibly via Oreshnik, is on ice for now.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 16:35 utc | 218

Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 16:35 utc | 219
I don’t take Doctrow very seriously but I do assume Russia will be able to discern what is a serious military attack and what is a propaganda attack in which a few American and British weapons are lobbed in Russias direction.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 16:42 utc | 219

Romania. The Romanians are far smarter than I thought. Hopefully they can pull themselves out of the American fire by I did read the elections were annulled or something by the courts because the American puppet did not win. If the Romanians are to save themselves from destruction, they may well have to dump this so called democracy rubbish and take up arms.
(According to the Americans, any country that is democratic votes in the American candidates who are loyal to the Americans and not their own country and people.)
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 16:17 utc | 215

I don’t know if you have watched any of Sebastian Sass video commentaries. He’s a Romanian freelancer with some good insights regarding NATO, Ukraine and the recent elections in his home country. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVa9FFdpuQU

Posted by: Mike R | Nov 30 2024 16:56 utc | 220

re: Nov 30 2024 14:58 utc | 201
you wrote:
I have read several of your recent comments, you’re coming across as melodramatic.
What changes in a month?
Russia is a sovereign nation and doesn’t obey the timetables of anyone else.
If you’re thinking that Trump will change something, I know how he thinks. If Putin displays power and ferocity, he will respect that. If Putin waits for him to create a bad peace deal for Russia, Trump will see that as weakness.
Nothing is ever gained with Trump by displaying weakness.

I am basing my ideas on the statements by Putin, the Russian MOD, the public reactions of US and Western leaders, and the continued attacks on Russian territory by the US and UK (via Ukraine) using the high-precision missiles in the face of repeated warnings by Russia.
Putin said on Nov 21: “ ”We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of the countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously consider this.
On Nov 28, when asked if military and decision-making centers would be hit by Russia, Putin saidEverything is possible.
Following the US and UK missile attacks on Nov 23 and 25, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on Nov 26: “Retaliatory actions are being prepared.
On Nov 27, Russia’s Deputy Ambassador at the United Nations, Dmitri Polianski, stated:
“We consider ourselves to have the right to use our weapons against military targets of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our targets.
We warned you about this, however, you made your choice.

On Nov 27, Russia issued the NOTAM covering the area in Russia where the Oreshnik was launched (to take out the Yuzhmash aerospace facility). The NOTAM extends through today.
I have taken all this to mean that Russia will hit one or more NATO military bases. I admit this has been unnerving to me, given its implcations, as this would put the US and NATO into direct military conflict.
I have never made any mention of Trump in my posts referring to the current circumstances. I will say that I have been deeply disappointed by Trump’s failure to speak out against Biden’s decision to start firing missiles into Russia. Trump’s silence comes across as approval, or at the least, acceptance of this decisions. Trump’s failure to speak out against the ongoing missile strikes against Russia — combined with the ignorant statements made by some of his neocon cabinet picks — are completely at odds with Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine. This does not give Putin any incentive to wait to see what Trump will do after he takes office.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 17:14 utc | 221

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 14:15 utc | 188
> Bulgaria is traditionally strongly Russophilic,
> Serbia is also traditionally strongly Russophilic
But Russia is not Bulgarophilic nor Serbophilic much.
I don’t think Russia is -philic to anyone in general.
Maybe Americanophilic, but that was unrequited love.
Ah well. Love can mend your life, but love can break you heart.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 30 2024 17:21 utc | 222

@ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 14:04 utc | 186
>>You know very well that the Israelis would have sent a missile at whatever pressconference Budanov, Zelensky or any of the other scumbags is at, and damn the collateral damage
Without a doubt; then turn around, refuel/rearm, and do a number on their extended families. Then post a highlight reel on jewish Instagram. And they’d get away with it too, because Israel’s support structure mostly depends on a small number of (very wealthy) narcissists and psychos at key power nodes in the USA, who in turn keep the goyim in line throughout the Empire. Russia’s support structure consists of a much more diverse cast of people/states who want to trade and develop, in short live, normally. That’s even omitting that billions of people pray to the God of Israel, not to the God of Russia; even here in remote Taiwan, I come across folks for whom “Israel no matter what” is their ticket to Paradise, serious business–facts really aren’t going to dissuade them. So it’s only right that Moscow doesn’t emulate Tel Aviv.
One might ask: if you feel that the Izzies do everything better, why don’t you go live among them? These days, it seems that building your house exclusively on hate only works out for the worst of them.
About Serbia and others delivering arms to Kiev: take care, Western intel would gladly overpay 10x to get some Serbian etc kit into Ukie hands, and spread that narrative far and wide. But beyond that: damn straight these small, nonnuclear, surrounded countries are not going to overcommit before they know whether the Bear can even be bothered to take Russian Odessa and open a land bridge to Transnistria and Hungary. As long as word from the Kremlin is “slower is better” and Putin eager to “compromise”, they will stay on the fence as well. Bottom line nobody will do for Russia what that giant country won’t do for itself.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Nov 30 2024 17:43 utc | 223

Too much cocaine, eh?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 30 2024 1:06 utc | 98
Sorry, but it has nothing to do with cocaine, but everything by the fact that the penis piano player is a stupid arsehole. And a sociopath.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 17:48 utc | 224

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 16:35 utc | 219
In chess there is a saying: the threat is stronger than its execution.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 17:52 utc | 225

“In chess there is a saying: the threat is stronger than its execution.”

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 17:52 utc | 226
Sounds like a Tartakowerism but I remember it attributed to Emanuel Lasker.

Posted by: Catilina | Nov 30 2024 18:14 utc | 226

Posted by: Julian | Nov 30 2024 9:55 utc | 153
####################
Weren’t you the guy who thought Ukraine could win the SMO a few months ago?
Your comments about Turkiye may well prove to be Erdogan’s death knell. LOL

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 18:18 utc | 227

Weren’t you the guy who thought Ukraine could win the SMO a few months ago?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 18:18 utc | 228

Ukraine is losing the SMO.
But so is Russia.
The US is winning big time

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 18:20 utc | 228

Bottom line nobody will do for Russia what that giant country won’t do for itself.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Nov 30 2024 17:43 utc | 224

Yes, indeed. That summarizes it well.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 18:22 utc | 229

@Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2024 16:42 utc | 220
>>I do assume Russia will be able to discern what is a serious military attack and what is a propaganda attack
I very much doubt that: these are nuclear powers lobbing missiles at the Russian Federation. Every time this happens (and it will happen again, even if Gilbert Doctorow turns out to have it right that the Dark Throne will observe a one-week pause or whatever), and after tens of thousands of dead, Moscow hopes “They’re just being naughty; they wouldn’t actually hurt us, right?!” And even mere naughtiness takes precious S-400s off the board. This is no way for a major power to conduct its NATSEC policy. So in effect, this is the Empire saying “You don’t get to have major-power status.” And Russia just takes it; or at least, Putin just takes it.
If the idea is to frog-boil the Bear (if that makes any sense) until the Empire can just send 100,000 peacekeepers which Russia won’t even dare to touch, then this is exactly the way to do it.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Nov 30 2024 18:25 utc | 230

Ukraine has underground gas storage (Bilche, 17 billion m3). Seems like a natural fit for Oreshnik.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 30 2024 18:33 utc | 231

A friend said Angela Merkel has recently published a book entitled ‘Freedom: Memoirs 1954-2021’. Apparently it talks about Germany being aware that the USA intended to kill off Nord Stream II for the purpose of replacing Russian energy with USA produced energy.
Apparently the book suggest the USA has gone in the business of preventing business ventures origination in other countries from interfering with private USA companies doing business in foreign lands.
If this is true, at least one person of interest confirms what I have been saying, all economic competitors become targets of the Class 1 controlled nation state system. Russian oil and gas is the competitor for oil and gas in the European Market so Russia is an enemy. Remember this is all in the private sector.. No government involvement thus far.. see the table of classes below.
Also mentioned is a WSJ article that talks about a wealthy western investor planning to bid on the bankrupt Nord Stream 2 pipeline when it comes on the auction block. I wonder if Trump fits into this?
Can anyone shed light on this.. Is it true about what the book says, and will the Class I people end up owning not the just the Energy market Russia used to supply the EU with but also it may become the distributor and gateway for cheap Russia oil and gas reaching Europe? If so, the Ukraine situation has raped both Russia and the EU..
I have found in doing research that people and entities in any nation state fall into one of 4 categories.. I have therefore defined four classes of people and have discovered that classification itself helps a bunch in explaining otherwise difficult to understand things with regards to Ukraine and Gaza.
Class definitions for entities in the average nation state
_Class 1. Oligarch: wealthy person actively investing. Deep state
_Class II. POPFME: Privately owned, publically (stock market) ___________financed, multinational Entity.
_Class III. Government: anything gov or authorized by anything gov.
_Class IV Slave: People who are governed by and work for the people ___________in Classes 1,2, or 3.
so when you talk about what is going on in a particular nation state you need to consider the class of person or entity involved in the situation you are talking about.. It helps a lot to explain things.

Posted by: snake | Nov 30 2024 18:36 utc | 232

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 17:14 utc | 222
##############
Trump’s silence is a negotiating tactic. I feel silly explaining this to an audience of (ostensibly) adults.
When you read Putin’s remarks, try to control your emotions and not project your fears. Putin speaks, truthfully and directly as Russians are wont to do.
Putin issued warnings because he is a responsible leader.
Trump is trying to manipulate him with silence, and Putin is manipulating back by defining the limits of the future agreement in advance by drawing bright lines.
I don’t see a deal being made in America’s favor, and I feel Trump will have to suffer some egg on his face, which will enrage him as his self-image and public perception mean more to him than the health of the nation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 18:37 utc | 233

Kellogg’s Corn Flakes everywhere these days,
Posted by: gT | Nov 30 2024 15:07 utc | 202
One more stupid arsehole. As they are losing badly they want to freeze the conflict as it is now.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 18:54 utc | 234

I will say that I have been deeply disappointed by Trump’s failure to speak out against Biden’s decision to start firing missiles into Russia. Trump’s silence comes across as approval, or at the least, acceptance of this decisions. Trump’s failure to speak out against the ongoing missile strikes against Russia — combined with the ignorant statements made by some of his neocon cabinet picks — are completely at odds with Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine. This does not give Putin any incentive to wait to see what Trump will do after he takes office.
@ Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 17:14 utc | 222

Quite well stated. I totally share your frustration with Trump’s silent assent, as we stare into the abyss in this putative interim. But I don’t share your disappointment, as I could never have imagined anything else from Trump, with the clown cabinet he’s predictably taken on.
Russia also had no reason to expect anything but continuous escalation. They’re not taken in with oscillations of the spin cycle, as much as consumers of MSM agitprop. The correct thing to do, in the face of relentless, apparently limitless escalation, is to seize escalation dominance. Ergo Oreshnik.
Jacques Baud has compared RF’s Oreshnik test-strike on Yuzhmash to “Little Boy” over Hiroshima. Talk about escalation dominance! If Baud (and I) are right about that, the global military infrastructure which was introduced by a nuclear blast on August 6, 1945 has been entirely superseded by another era of military history, in which anti-population weapons are simply futile. Welcome to the new era of hyper-kinetic thunderbolts which can scour the planet of toxic airfields, harbors, factories, what-have you. And root warmongers from their deepest bunkers, without radioactive fallout.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 19:04 utc | 235

Posted by: gT | Nov 30 2024 15:07 utc | 202
###########
The American media has increasingly been focused inward on regime-oriented narratives.
I don’t believe many older Americans who still watch the evening news could handle footage or reporting from the Ukrainian or Palestinian front lines. I imagine befuddlement, followed by mental breakdowns.
What I find tragic is the Americans at the bar who know better and still promote/regurgitate regime narratives with sincerity.
It takes all types, I guess.
Bell curves and all that, for every genius, there is a corresponding idiot.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 19:05 utc | 236

Rob Urie has a good commentary here:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-152242687
Nothing new for seasoned bar flies, but a good summary from a well-informed American dissident.

Posted by: Avtonom | Nov 30 2024 19:18 utc | 237

It is a sad thing to observe the dismissive arrogant attitude of presumption within the EU, Ukraine and Israel as to the sacrifices of their armed forces. Treated as if they were to be obedient, fully submissive employees. In Israel, the often obese settlers insult and accuse them of treason, expecting them to clear territory for them, obsequiously.
Or Zelensky expecting encircled troops to sacrifice themselves, as if their lives meant nothing. Or the EU expecting tens of thousands to enter Ukraine and fight Russia. Die for the blue circle star flag. Would they show up for that? Even the IDF is getting tired of what they face.If there is any one spiritual or ethical vacuum in Western society above others, it is a profound lack of gratitude, appreciation. After 9/11 (with all that baloney), at least there was a move to appreciate those who serve. Gone now.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 30 2024 19:50 utc | 238

Hmmm…
https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/are-they-planning-a-false-flag-attack
If the enemy won’t compel our people, we will? (“well, it might work” – RR)
https://london-webcam.co.uk/
I tried several. All dark.

Posted by: saner | Nov 30 2024 19:51 utc | 239

Salami | Nov 30 2024 3:40 utc | 111

Are you saying Putin was willing to sacrifice the Donbass and Lugansk republics to the Ukrainian wolves as long as Russia got Crimea?

Ok Salami, Putin initially did not give a fuck about Donbass and Lugansk, he also did not give a fuck about Crimea as well. All Putin wanted was peace and Russia can survive quite happily without Donbass, Lugansk and Crimea. But things happened and Crimea survived the CIA coup. Then came the coup attempt in Khazakstan, and after that Putin suddenly decide that he does give a fuck about Donetsk and Lugansk after all. Apparently some of those captured in Khazakstan revealed that Ukraine was intent on taking Donetsk and Lugansk and then attacking Russia as well to get Russia involved in war. So Putin decided that since the attack against Russia was coming he might as well attack first. But initially Putin really did not give a fuck about the people in Donetsk and Lugansk, they were not part of Russia so why should he have worried about them, his duty was to protect Russia. If things were getting tough in Ukraine the Russians there could always just move to Russia. Only the knowledge that the fight was coming to Russia anyway made Putin decide to get involved in Ukraine, the preference is for fighting to occur in other countries and not in Russia proper.

Posted by: gT | Nov 30 2024 19:58 utc | 240

re: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 18:37 utc | 234
you write:
Trump’s silence is a negotiating tactic. I feel silly explaining this to an audience of (ostensibly) adults.
When you read Putin’s remarks, try to control your emotions and not project your fears. Putin speaks, truthfully and directly as Russians are wont to do.
Putin issued warnings because he is a responsible leader.
Trump is trying to manipulate him with silence, and Putin is manipulating back by defining the limits of the future agreement in advance by drawing bright lines.
I don’t see a deal being made in America’s favor, and I feel Trump will have to suffer some egg on his face, which will enrage him as his self-image and public perception mean more to him than the health of the nation.

That’s your opinion, and you (deliberately?) ignore the bellicose statements about Ukraine and Putin being made on Trump’s behalf by his cabinet appointees, particularly the well-publicized statements by Sebastian Gorka. During an interview that occurred several days ago, the fool Gorka said: “He [Trump] will say to that murderous former KGB colonel, that thug, who runs the Russian Federation: you will negotiate now or the aid that we [the US] have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts.”
When Trump allows such statements to be made on his behalf and says nothing, that indicates his approval of Gorka’s venomous remarks, and this is certainly noted in Moscow.
When you read Putin’s remarks, try not to interpret them with your wishful thinking. When he states that Russia will retaliate “in a mirror-like manner”, I believe him. When this will happen is anyone’s guess, but I expect it will be sooner rather than later.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 20:12 utc | 241

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 19:04 utc | 236
In 1945 the USA had two technologies to make atom bombs: uranium and plutonium. So the USA chose two Japanese cities, to try out an uranium and a plutonium atom bomb, to see what worked best. Bestial.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 30 2024 20:21 utc | 242

re: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 19:04 utc | 236
You are right, it was foolish to expect anything other than bluster from Trump. Apparently his plan to “end the Ukraine War in a day” more likely involved threatening Putin with some major escalation rather than simply withdrawing aid to Ukraine.
You wrote:
Jacques Baud has compared RF’s Oreshnik test-strike on Yuzhmash to “Little Boy” over Hiroshima. Talk about escalation dominance! If Baud (and I) are right about that, the global military infrastructure which was introduced by a nuclear blast on August 6, 1945 has been entirely superseded by another era of military history, in which anti-population weapons are simply futile. Welcome to the new era of hyper-kinetic thunderbolts which can scour the planet of toxic airfields, harbors, factories, what-have you. And root warmongers from their deepest bunkers, without radioactive fallout.
It appears that the West is doing its best to hide the damage done by the first Oreshnik strike. No satellite photos, no on-site photos have been released. Consequently, analysts have had to rely on anecdotal accounts, which don’t amount to strong evidence.
Plus, “experts” like Jeffrey Lewis have belittled the idea that Oreshnik represents some new revolutionary type of weapon that far exceeds the power of conventional weaponry (Putin stated that several Oreshniks used together would have the power of a strategic, i.e. nuclear, weapon).
I suppose the only way to make the evidence irrefutable is for Russia to continue with Oreshnik strikes against NATO targets. If Putin was not bloffing, the evidence should be forthcoming in the very near future.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 20:36 utc | 243

According to Susan Singer, Russia and Ukraine once again repatriated the bodies of their respective fallen soldiers for burial. Ukraine received 502 KIA; Russia received about 50.

Posted by: Avtonom | Nov 30 2024 20:43 utc | 244

The link:
https://www.patreon.com/posts/ukraine-november-117009193

Posted by: Avtonom | Nov 30 2024 20:45 utc | 245

@ Perimetr, §244:
An excellent target for an “oreshnik lesson” would be Idlib and the fanatical jihadi head-choppers of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Erdoğan should also be advised to take serious note . . .

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 30 2024 20:49 utc | 246

Or, Trump doesn’t want to be accused of catering to Russia, the way he was accused in 2016. The Deep State went after Gen. Flynn, Trump’s NSA pick, for talking with Russia’s ambassador during the transition period! That was insane! But they got away with it.
I guess we’ll see which it is in the days to come.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 29 2024 17:02 utc | 25
———————————————————-
I think you are on to something, worthy of some contemplation by karlof1, b Himself, as the Irish would say, milites, unimperator, various james entities and a few others who keep an eye an uncle Sam.
I take my view all the way back to how Mike Johnson walked $61B for Ukraine through Congress. He went to Mar-a-Lgo to kiss the ring, seeking Trump’s approval which he got, the thinking at the time that Trump did not want to appear to be ‘weak on Russia.’
An additional comment from other sources indicated that Mike Johnson cam back from his intelligence briefings ‘a changed man,’ thinking that Russia wanted to take all of Western Europe. He is definitely stupid enough.
Preparations for ‘Who lost Ukraine’ are in the making. Tough talk, ‘not us,’ seems to be the measure of progress.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 30 2024 21:04 utc | 247

It appears that the West is doing its best to hide the damage done by the first Oreshnik strike. No satellite photos, no on-site photos have been released. Consequently, analysts have had to rely on anecdotal accounts, which don’t amount to strong evidence.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 20:36 utc | 244
The question arises: why? Why is there an ongoing information lockdown? Perhaps I am more gullible than you, but I take this ongoing information lockdown as sufficient evidence that something colossal happened, so big that it has absolutely rattled Western military analysts.
I live about 40km away from a big military base on the edge of Salisbury Plain; normally, about once a month, I see (or more usually hear) a Chinook helicopter chug and thud its way across the sky (wonder when they’ll convert to battery power BTW), yet in the evening by my local time, on the day of the Oreshnik deployment, three Chinooks flew over in 1 hour, which is unprecedented in my over 40 years of living in the area.
Some “jimmies were rustled” somewhere.
~~~
If there was little to no damage then where’s the harm in releasing photos/videos to confirm that?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 21:11 utc | 248

wonder when they’ll convert to battery power BTW
That’ll be when a battery has enough energy density to power a motor sufficiently to lift it off the ground = sometime never.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Nov 30 2024 21:15 utc | 249

Russia also had no reason to expect anything but continuous escalation. They’re not taken in with oscillations of the spin cycle, as much as consumers of MSM agitprop. The correct thing to do, in the face of relentless, apparently limitless escalation, is to seize escalation dominance. Ergo Oreshnik.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 30 2024 19:04 utc | 236
very good post

Posted by: salmon | Nov 30 2024 21:18 utc | 250

Think strategically.
NATO/USA has ALWAYS wanted to use nukes on Russia, but to get them to use them first. For the USA until recently anyway, they stood to win a nuclear war (they thought) because if Russia used a mini nuke first then USA/NATO would respond with 200, half targeted at Moscow and St Petersburg and the others at launch sites- essentially ending Russia as a nation – most of its people etc. Sure Russia might respond with its nukes but the US elites assumed they would mostly be safe in bunkers, even assuming Russia was not bluffing about response or that their systems all worked.
However NATO/USA has lost out bigtime on the land war in Ukraine. Russia clearly does not need to use nukes. Despite all their incitement Russia has not used nukes, so the USA needs a new strategy.
Essentially the USA needs to get its navy into the Black Sea. Turkey is the blocking point. So Syria is the bargaining chip. USA allows/helps Turkey take Aleppo and Turkey opens up the Bosporus for NATO vessels. Russia needs to calculate Turkey’s response if it helps Syria.
There may be other factors too, not involving USA. Turkey gets Aleppo with Russia’s tacit approval in exchange for giving Syria Golan heights. Erdogan is tricky. Who knows what he will do – he may not know himself.
Whatever way we look at it is is part of the prelude to wider conflict.

Posted by: watcher | Nov 30 2024 21:25 utc | 251

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Nov 30 2024 21:15 utc | 250
“when a battery has enough energy density to power a motor sufficiently to lift it off the ground = sometime never”
You must have missed all the battery drones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DJI#Agras
“Agras is DJI’s agricultural drone series with a takeoff weight of 25–80 kg. These drones are used for spraying crops.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 30 2024 21:26 utc | 252

It appears that the West is doing its best to hide the damage done by the first Oreshnik strike. No satellite photos, no on-site photos have been released. Consequently, analysts have had to rely on anecdotal accounts, which don’t amount to strong evidence.
Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 20:36 utc | 244

That much is true, but they never post damage photos from sensitive objects, only if they can use it for propaganda purposes, so that is not new.
Also, as I mentioned above, it is not as if there was a live webcam in Yuzhmash prior to November 21. There was never any on-the-ground, let alone underground footage from those facilities.
So if there had not been any strike, you would not have seen any footage.
I have another question for the last several days — when and where the hell was that weapon tested? Because they presumably fired that payload at least a few times previously before they sent it to Yuzhmash. And it is kind of hard to miss the hands of God reaching down from the sky…
So Western intelligence most likely knew about it, and had high-res satellite pictures of the aftermath at the test grounds, wherever they were. Thus I am skeptical about the reports that they were shook by the Yuzhmash strike. Their subsequent actions certainly do not point to them being scared by it.
And it is irrelevant anyway – the Western bet is that Putin and Russian elites are sufficiently compromised and/or cowardly to ever strike at them, so what weapons they have at their disposal does not matter. A very solid bet so far.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 21:32 utc | 253

NATO/USA has ALWAYS wanted to use nukes on Russia

They already crossed that line in Toropets (and not only there)

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 21:37 utc | 254

Perimetr@242
“in a mirror-like manner”
Wonder if Mr Putin is gonna use one of those concave type mirrors, the type found in Amusement parks.
I don’t believe he’ll do anything outside of killing more Ukie fodder in the Ukraine, which the Russians have excelled at so far. Deterring FUKUS, hmm……not so much.
Cheers M
…..I’m not sure how punching 12 wee holes in the ground is going to get the EU or world populace on board with not wanting any part of a war with Russia……the west is Hollywood conditioned, if Russia thinks some bombs without pyrotechnics is going to scare anyone, well, no white flag from NATO yet. Hope springs eternal….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 30 2024 21:42 utc | 255

reply to 251
Your thinking is clear. There is nothing else. I have to wonder if Putin fully understood this when the SMO began. I do not fault him, if he didn’t because it’s so daunting.
I was reading a reply on Quora about the nightmare that Hillary Clinton caused, laughing at Khadaffi’s death. Lessons learned? Never trust anything the West/US says. Cooperate with them and die like a dog in the street. She established the importance of nuclear weapons in hand for the world to remember forever. Only a devil could wallow in such a legacy.
Putin must continue. The West is a chaotic, amoral mess, a danger to itself and all others. A multipolar balance would be better for all.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 30 2024 21:44 utc | 256

Just reading about Ukie trained thugs killing Wagner’s somewhere in Africa, Ukie trained thugs training Jihadi in Turkey/Syria killing Russian allies, bet head chopper gets extra cash for bagging and tagging a Russian in Syria (just calling what I see) what next Jihadi Goes To Georgia, back, back, back….back in the USSR.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 30 2024 21:50 utc | 257

I have another question for the last several days — when and where the hell was that weapon tested? Because they presumably fired that payload at least a few times previously before they sent it to Yuzhmash. And it is kind of hard to miss the hands of God reaching down from the sky…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 30 2024 21:32 utc | 254
How much testing does a mathematical equation need? A known mass arrives at a known speed with a known temperature.
Perhaps Russian computer modelling is more advanced than some might give them credit for.
Then again, perhaps Oreshnik really is a “nothingburger” but what has been noticeable is your increased frequency of panic-posting since Yuzhmash…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 21:58 utc | 258

More and more indications that Trump is in the process of being even more neutralized this time than last.
The complex spin on events the warmongering hegemon is displaying now shows them in control and not about to acceot some “transition”.
Kremlin better recognize this and be aware that a new adminstration means nothing.

Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Nov 30 2024 22:03 utc | 259

Bell curves and all that, for every genius, there is a corresponding idiot.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 19:05 utc | 237
———————————————————
When Ted Kennedy was still a Senator he gave rise to the notion that an IQ of 110 was best for a good politician.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 30 2024 22:05 utc | 260

perhaps Oreshnik really is a “nothingburger”
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 21:58 utc | 259

Oreshnik makes Nutella.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 30 2024 22:12 utc | 261

Douglas Macgregor: Nuclear Strike Next 48H!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PWEN_12Mn0
“This is a catastrophe.”
Despite the click-bait titling worth a watch.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 30 2024 22:16 utc | 262

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 30 2024 20:12 utc | 242
############
Trump is a rhetorician. Nothing he says can be taken as truth. Couple that with the fact that Trump holds no absolute values about anything. He’s very flexible so that he can achieve his aims.
His proxies are spouting off, creating chaos, which is his favorite paradigm to operate within. Madman Theory.
Trump has loudly been anti-war, but he will continue to start and continue wars, as he did in his first term when he assassinated Soleimani inside of Iran (violating Iran’s sovereignty, a typical Zionist tactic). As when he used sanctions to starve civilians in Syria. As when he gave Zelensky weapons to kill Russians inside of Donbass.
As with everyone, judge no one on what they say. Judge only what they do.
Putin is much more clear because talking a lot of junk and making threats isn’t the Russian style. He is also more likely to explain what he has already done (ex-post) than threaten doom and destruction before giving an order as Trump is fond of doing. The ideal lens for one is NOT the appropriate lens for the other.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:18 utc | 263

The original discussion (4 days old now) between Colonel Macgregor and Daniel Davis is better taken in its entirety. One will note that Macgregor NEVER says “nuclear strike in 48h” so, no, the clickbait headlines should be avoided since that’s all they are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLe1H-n1KOQ

Posted by: diatom | Nov 30 2024 22:24 utc | 264

And quietly, ever so quietly, our friendly nuclear war fetishist has outed him/her/its undecided/ self as a seppoe*, so we can all now completely disregard any claim made about knowing what “ordinary Russian people on the street” think.
Clumsy, wasting all that time and effort…
*seppoe = short for septic tank, and I’m sure you don’t need an expert in “rhymings-lang” for that

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 22:25 utc | 265

There are many who hate Russia in the EU but that’s not “unity”. That’s the EU system at work.
Posted by: rk | Nov 30 2024 14:57 utc | 200
Yep, it’s easy to be friends with someone when you have a common enemy! And the barefaced hypocricy of the EU (and also NATO) pretending “family harmony” makes me puke.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Nov 30 2024 22:25 utc | 266

The Trump silence and neo-con Foreign Policy appointments could be attributed to the two assassination attempts, so far.
Putting yet another log in the fire pit, warming up the flies at the bar.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 30 2024 22:26 utc | 267

Kremlin better recognize this and be aware that a new adminstration means nothing.
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Nov 30 2024 22:03 utc | 260
############
I am sure that they recognize it.
Putin has said numerous times in the last few years, most prominently in his interview with Tucker Carlson, that a new administration cannot do much. The course is already set within the American government and any new course will be reverted by the next Administration.
That is Trump’s challenge if he wants to do anything different. He must break and re-make the American government, as nearly every single federal employee will work to stop or impede him.
All eyes should be on the Senate. With McConnell retiring, will they serve the Trump administration, or will they serve the establishment? The House is in his hands, he made the Speaker, and he can break the Speaker. The difference in term length between the two bodies (6 in the Senate, 2 in the House) dictates how sensitive they have to be to Trump’s good graces to get re-elected.
If Trump doesn’t have the Senate on his side, he cannot do much legally, and after how easily he rolled over in 2020 when the election was stolen, Trump doesn’t seem like the sort to push on legal boundaries as many of America’s most famous modern Presidents did.
I keep coming back to not believing what people say, instead what they do. The Americans don’t follow any laws, even their own. Putin, being a legalist, recognizes what a bad actor looks like, certainly after the betrayals via the Minsk agreements.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:29 utc | 268

Martin Armstrong has reported from his staff in Kiev. Russians have dropped leaflettes. Leave the city.
Interview: Armstrong Reveals KEY INTEL On Russia-Ukraine Escalations

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 30 2024 22:31 utc | 269

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:18 utc | 264
While Trump did order (or at least take credit for) Soleimani’s assassination, it wasn’t in Iran. He’s not THAT much of a Zionist. Soleimani was assassinated while visiting Iraq.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Nov 30 2024 22:32 utc | 270

With US and now Germany pushing Ukraine to send their 18 year old children to the Frontline it’s increasingly beginning to look like it’s not Russia, but Ukraine that the West is trying to wipe out.
Ukrainian major cities are levelled, their once massive agricultural sector is under Russian control. Their energy is completely wiped, and the West has been sending just enough arms to hold back Russia but not enough to meaningfully halt the Russian conquest, much less repel it.
You’ve sent your soldiers, then your old men, then women, and finally what’s left needs to go and die at the front, Ukraine. Once all is gone war can finally end.
There is no way Zelensky doesn’t see this collapse of the Ukraine in real time, pushed entirely by the western nations.

Posted by: eyes wings | Nov 30 2024 22:33 utc | 271

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 30 2024 22:26 utc | 268
############
When Sebastian Gorka calls Putin a thug, does Trump send Elon Musk to assure VVP that it is all just rhetoric and doesn’t reflect Trump’s true feelings towards Putin, and by extension Russia?
I can understand putting on a show to stay alive and get into office. The problem is that such messaging to the domestic audience is poisoning future diplomacy internationally.
Chairman Kim is quite fond of Putin. Trump claims he wants to re-open negotiations with the DPRK. What are the odds that Kim is sincere with Trump and not acting respectfully as Asians reflexively do towards their elders?
It’s a trap that America has dug itself into since WW2. Too much BS, despite being powerful, erodes credibility, and everyone knows that low trust increases transaction costs, making some deals impossible to negotiate.
I look forward to this slow-motion trainwreck playing out over the next 4 years.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:37 utc | 272

Posted by: diatom | Nov 30 2024 22:24 utc | 265
100% agree about watching and listening to the discussion in full.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 22:37 utc | 273

Posted by: Hunsdon | Nov 30 2024 22:32 utc | 271
#########
I stand corrected on the location.
That said, Soleimani was a high-level Iranian political/military leader. That is still a violation of Iran’s sovereignty.
As the Iranians have said, they can’t even get even. America has no such distinguished and accomplished heroes.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:39 utc | 274

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 30 2024 21:58 utc | 259
Excellent. Additionally you could have noted in your response to the troll’s comment @ 21:32 utc that if Yuzhmash damage were indeed underwhelming, the Ukronazis would’ve posted photos *precisely for their propaganda value*, thus turning the troll’s argument on its head.

Posted by: malenkov | Nov 30 2024 22:42 utc | 275

There is no way Zelensky doesn’t see this collapse of the Ukraine in real time, pushed entirely by the western nations.
Posted by: eyes wings | Nov 30 2024 22:33 utc | 272
##########
Friend, do you think Zelensky is a patriot who loves Ukraine with all of his heart?
He’s not. He’s a professional actor whose biggest role has been to sell off and demographically destroy Ukraine. That monkey will dance for whoever throws shekels at his feet.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:42 utc | 276

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 30 2024 22:31 utc | 270
###########
A 1 hour long video. Wow.
I’ll take your word for the content. I don’t have the time to watch every interesting video that others cite. Video is a terrible medium for communicating important details quickly in a busy information paradigm where most of us are trying to drink from a firehose.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:47 utc | 277

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:39 utc | 275
I hasten to point out that was my only correction! I agree with your comments otherwise. It was a dirty trick, and it turned my stomach to see America not only doing it, but whooping it up afterwards.
I sort of believed the official story on US foreign policy until I first visited the FSU (Russia and Kazakhstan) in late ’97. Since that time? NOPE.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Nov 30 2024 22:51 utc | 278

Ukrainian troops have been given phrasebooks in Korean in case Kim Jong Un’s troops join the fray.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Nov 30 2024 14:56 utc | 199

“안녕하세요”
*BANG*

Posted by: Oldhand | Nov 30 2024 22:54 utc | 279

@canuck | Sat, 30 Nov 2024 12:10:00 GMT | 177

Like every politician on this planet.
Don’t be so daft.

It depends on degree. Trump goes way overboard. How’s that wall that Mexico paid for coming by the way?

Posted by: James M. | Nov 30 2024 22:57 utc | 280

LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:47 utc | 278
Actually the quote is at the front of the video. Click on it and its a minute.

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 30 2024 23:03 utc | 281

@LoveDonbass | Sat, 30 Nov 2024 22:18:00 GMT | 264

Trump is a rhetorician. Nothing he says can be taken as truth. Couple that with the fact that Trump holds no absolute values about anything. He’s very flexible so that he can achieve his aims.

Yes, this is absolutely true. With his aims being to enrich himself and his allies. I still think it very likely that the SMO will end in early 2025, but only on terms that favor Russia. Trump will, of course, take credit for it no matter how limited his involvement in the peace process actually is.

Posted by: James M. | Nov 30 2024 23:05 utc | 282

Russians have dropped leaflettes. Leave the city.
Posted by: circumspect | Nov 30 2024 22:31 utc | 270

The followup munitions won’t be loaded with cookies.
I better go eat while I still can…
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Nov 30 2024 11:16 utc | 167
I’ll enjoy this single malt. No-ones calling last orders at the bar.

Posted by: Oldhand | Nov 30 2024 23:08 utc | 283

@LoveDonbass | Sat, 30 Nov 2024 22:39:00 GMT | 275

That said, Soleimani was a high-level Iranian political/military leader. That is still a violation of Iran’s sovereignty.

Indeed, Soleimani was on a state visit to Iraq I believe, which means he had diplomatic immunity, which makes his assassination a violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

Posted by: James M. | Nov 30 2024 23:13 utc | 284

Sounds like a Tartakowerism but I remember it attributed to Emanuel Lasker.

Maybe it is older, but Nimzowitsch has it as an essential part of My System.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Nov 30 2024 23:16 utc | 285

Sounds like a Tartakowerism but I remember it attributed to Emanuel Lasker.
Posted by: Catilina | Nov 30 2024 18:14 utc | 227
It was Nimzovitsch when Lasker was threatening to smoke in front of him.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 23:26 utc | 286

DS map update analysis:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Overall: Another strong day for the RFA, taking 43.0 kmsq, as compared to an average pace of 17/day in OCT. Continued progress in the South Donetsk, responsible for almost all the total.
S to N:
1. 20.3 kmsq SE of Velyka Novasilka. The pocket is getting tighter on the line of towns to the south of VN.
2. 4.7 kmsq N of Dalnie and S of Kurakhove. Gray conversion of a pocket.
3. 1.8 klmsq in and S/W of Beretsky. Most of the next town over, Stari Terny, is now in the gray.
4. 3.4 kmsq in and N of Beretsky, including town capture.
5. 0.3 kmsq in Pushkine. Hamlet is half gray/red now. (Pokrovsk front.)
6. 4.4 kmsq W of Zhovte and Pustynka. The next town to the NW, Novopustynka, is now threatened. (Pokrovsk front.)
7. 5.3 kmsq E of Lozova, S of the Pischane bloom. Starting to roll up territory in the large open fields to the E of the Oskil Reservoir (and S of the bloom).
8. 2.8 kmsq E of Zapadne, N of Kupiansk. This is a second (slightly further south) crossing of the Oskil. It does not look like they have a bridge at either crossing. (Maybe temp pontoon bridges?) Will be interesting to see what happens. If they can take a decent sized town (Dvorichna most likely) would help support them making this incursion resistant to UFA counterattacks. Probably the sites are vulnerable, if the UFA can concentrate forces.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 30 2024 23:27 utc | 287

*BANG*
Posted by: Oldhand | Nov 30 2024 22:54 utc | 280
나치는 어디에 있는가? 우리는 그들을 쏠 준비가되어 있습니다

Posted by: Naive | Nov 30 2024 23:31 utc | 288

Re Trump vs Putin, US vs RF:
Talk (or lack thereof) is just the game, the PR, the spin.
All leaders engage in it.
Actions are the reality.
So, my summary:
Trump talks big. Trump threatens. Trump uses others as his pre-negotiation mouthpieces. Trump has the Dems and DS and election sponsors to juggle. Trump bullshits the people. Trump has a very fractured Congress. Trump is the new kid in US-Russia relations. Lol, Putin has lived through 5 POTUS.
Putin talks straight and deals in Realpolitic. He doesn’t insult national leaders. He may hide a bit, but he doesn’t lie to the people. Putin has a predominantly unified Duma. Putin (eventually) enacts what he said he’d do. He works for on-ground realities.

Posted by: Englishman in NY | Nov 30 2024 23:36 utc | 289

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 30 2024 22:26 utc | 268
Or the fact that Trump II is not going to fall for the same tricks again. If he speaks about the NATO escalation in Ukraine he runs into the classical horns of a dilemma. Condemning the decision to allow strikes into Russia, means he is gored by the pre-prepared, institutionally supported, press onslaught, reigniting claiming he’s a Putin puppet. However bogus, it will buy time for their sponsored party, creating an operational space to recover from the ‘shock’ loss and help mitigate the disruption to their plans for the fundamental transformation of America.
If he dodges that horn and decides to support the action he’s then lost credibility with Putin, and damaged his reputation as an anti-war President. Either way, any definitive statement will damage his standing and allow an opening for his opponent’s to try to resurrect their fortunes, whilst damaging his ability to resolve the institutionally engineered and sustained conflicts that have been a hallmark of their puppet’s administration.
Like his decision to only sign a memorandum of understanding, regarding the transition process, after preparing alternative locations and technology, than those offered by the corrupt GSA, Trumps refusal to comment shows a greater understanding of the threat architecture and its main vectors that his team now face.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 30 2024 23:39 utc | 290

Americans fighting in Ukraine video from south front
https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/33047-Kursk-Region.mp4?_=3

Posted by: ld | Nov 30 2024 23:47 utc | 291

And the NOTAM has expired.

Posted by: CT | Dec 1 2024 0:03 utc | 292

Mark2 | Nov 29 2024 23:40 utc | 88
*** Trump sold america to the jews.
He did a deal.
With the devil.***
Trump must be one helluva salesman …
to sell the Jews what they had already acquired.

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:06 utc | 293

Ma Laoshi | Nov 30 2024 0:41 utc | 97
***…. the dawn of the Age of Aquarius on Jan 20. ***
Which is he — a water-carrier, or a piss-artist?

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:11 utc | 294

ZimZum | Nov 30 2024 3:34 utc | 110
*** He has destroyed his country yet parades as the ultimate patriot.
It is quite nauseating and you would hope for some sort of reckoning.***
In fairness to Zelensky, note that he did not destroy Israel.

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:20 utc | 295

Anton Gorbatow | Nov 30 2024 4:25 utc | 117
*** Upon further reflection, it is now clear to me that Zelensky not only said that he is willing to cede territory but he also signaled that he will agree not to seek membership in NATO. This is a huge capitulation.***
No, it is just lies and semantics as usual.
Not only that, but it omits his own execution.

Posted by: Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:27 utc | 296

I keep coming back to not believing what people say, instead what they do. The Americans don’t follow any laws, even their own. Putin, being a legalist, recognizes what a bad actor looks like, certainly after the betrayals via the Minsk agreements.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:29 utc | 269
——————————————————
I look forward to this slow-motion trainwreck playing out over the next 4 years.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 30 2024 22:37 utc | 273
——————————————————
I am afraid of that, too. If DJT is indeed affected by the assassination attempts it is game over.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 30 2024 23:39 utc | 291
Milites is giving him credit for something, I did not know Trump has ever demonstrated. I do prefer to be wrong.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Dec 1 2024 0:30 utc | 297

Which is he — a water-carrier, or a piss-artist?
Posted by: Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:11 utc | 295

Nyet.
The Trump Vodka brand was discontinued in the United States in 2011 due to sales failing to meet the company threshold requirements. Several reasons were attributed for this. One was because Trump himself is a non-drinker and never drank Trump Vodka, as he blamed alcohol for the death of his brother Fred Trump, Jr.

Posted by: Oldhand | Dec 1 2024 0:30 utc | 298

@ Cynic | Dec 1 2024 0:27 utc | 297
Semantics indeed — I heard elensky say that he would cede territory *temporarily*, and because he won’t cede territory permanently (thus creating the necessary stable borders), he realizes he can’t be a NATO member. He does express hope that he’ll be accommodated under a NATO “umbrella”, whatever that is.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 1 2024 0:31 utc | 299

@Cynic | Sun, 01 Dec 2024 00:27:00 GMT | 297

No, it is just lies and semantics as usual.

Indeed, he hasn’t conceded anything. He wants a NATO-like “umbrella” in exchange for temporarily ceding territory which he assumes he will get back through “diplomatic” means at a later date.
He wants temporary reprieve from the war in exchange for long-term gains. The problem for Zelensky is he isn’t in the position to negotiate. The fighting will end on Russian terms only.

Posted by: James M. | Dec 1 2024 0:38 utc | 300