salmon | Nov 24 2024 17:05 utc | 29
Not only is there zilch in UK media about the new missile, there’s been zilch about the YUGE fire in Barrow, in a YUGE building specifically designed to build nuclear submarines
without satellites looking at them, a couple of weeks ago. Methinks the violence of the blaze may have been thousands of rubber stealth tiles on the sub’s surface – in which case what condition is the sub in?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 24 2024 21:47 utc | 104

Now I am scared: the New Oreshnik Missile Attack on Dnipro
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 24 2024 21:15 utc | 99

The host does seem genuinely scared. He has just realised that his entire lifestyle depends on the west defeating Russia and taking her resources, and the west has already lost. He might have to get a real job.

Posted by: Drifter | Nov 24 2024 22:01 utc | 106

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 24 2024 21:51 utc | 106
Self-censorship, yes, but I also think everyone in the Western elites (military, political and legacy media) have been genuinely caught on the hop by the Oreshnik deployment and they have no prepared/practised narrative to cover it. Spectacular images of “rods from God” piercing the sky, but no mushroom clouds. This has puzzled and confused them, it’s completely outside the narrative parameters.
Some half-hearted efforts to regain control of the narrative are popping up here and there, e.g. the dubious and probably fake satellite video imagery that some of the more gullible alt-channels are running with (hi there, Dima!), or attempts to downplay the damage with so-say eyewitness reports.
To mis-quote The Smiths:
Panic in the halls of London
Panic in the halls of Washington
Dump the Zelly
Dump the Zelly
Dump the Zelly

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 24 2024 22:13 utc | 108

Looks like Sen. L. Graham finally said out loud what everyone is trying not to mention: thar’s gold in d’em hills! (OK, trillions in rare earth minerals.)
Shucks! It’s not about freedom and democracy, it’s about installing our own thugs so his buddies can resource strip the place. He may be worried about the quickly fading industrial base (see offshoring all those tech jobs), or lagging too far behind China during the next general tooling cycle (+/- 20 yr). Boeing is headed where?
So many of his colleagues, both parties, have been dumping incredible amounts of cash into one of the most corrupt places on the planet while people are living under bridges in this country.
It’s obscene.
Easier ways than pleb-slaughter to get those minerals. You won’t be getting stupid rich, but you’ll have something to work with. And you might find they’re interested in your resources. (Guess those aren’t the operative concepts in play.)
And the idiots in State seem to be using an AI gaming model that has them convinced of a Hollywood ending. (They might grasp the concepts but not have the coding skills to understand that the garbage coming out – disguised as Nobel-level genius, is based on their fantasies going in.) Cringe-worthy, while driving on the edge of a cliff.
It’s as if they have a particularly skewed view of Russians. Very little real understanding of the history, or even the more recent changes. “You may not like what they tell you, but the Russians will tell you what they are thinking.” Pretty sure they said something…
Seems some folks aren’t even listening.
(Where’s Prof. Stephen Cohen when ya need him? )
They’re convinced that they are smarter than everyone else in the room. Cynical SOB’s spewing identical talking points from different prompters.
Reminds me of Enron… until there wasn’t…

Posted by: Ledovik1 | Nov 24 2024 22:19 utc | 110

But what about those 50,000 North Korean troops in Kursk???!!!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 24 2024 20:43 utc | 92
—————————————————————————————
Since you brought the subject up, what about them? Are you sure there are only 50,000? Could it be more? Less? Do you know because inquiring minds want to know? Could they be fantoms of Biden’s shriveled mind, implanted by Zelensky and Nuland? Do you even know where the 1 million NK troops are hiding?

Posted by: Ed | Nov 24 2024 22:31 utc | 112

Posted by: watcher | Nov 24 2024 21:01 utc | 96
“idea that the US has some secret powerful weapon”
Given their record over the last 40 years, this doesn’t seem very likely. They can’t even upgrade their present ICBM system, and have abandoned an attempt at a new system.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Nov 24 2024 22:42 utc | 114

Tobias Cole | Nov 24 2024 21:38 utc | 103
*** And Sir Keir far left neo fascist government is now openly speaking of selling one of the new aircraft carriers to boot…***
Very much NOT real “left” at all … just knee-taking wokist.
A neoliberal fascist control-freak who is extremely Zionist.
Much in common with the lunatic currently finishing off Argentina.

Posted by: Cynic | Nov 24 2024 22:47 utc | 116

in which case what condition is the sub in?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 24 2024 21:47 utc | 105

I expect you can now smell it coming – not so stealthy.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Nov 24 2024 23:04 utc | 118

DS map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#8/48.6419836/38.9739990
Overall:
Another strong day. 51kmsq overall, or 3x the 17/day average pace for OCT. RFA continuing to finish the month strong. Will be a new post-2022 record month.
Most of the advances in the S Donetsk, where several pockets are closing. But some decent progress on the “get space around Pokrovsk” task of expanding the Oche bloom to the E. Still much more to do there. But something.
S to N:
1. Velyka Novasilka sector: 13.6 kmsq to the E of the city, on a broad front. Mostly gray zone conversion. But some gray movement also. Notably towards N, within Rozdolne, which is 100% red/gray now.
2. Uspenivka pocket: (new name for region between Dalnie and Bohiavlenka, is a little disconnected from Kurakhove): 2.7 kmsq at the extreme cul-de-sac of the the pocket. Includes finishing off Katerynivka.
3. S Khurakhove front: 4.7 kmsq E of Khurakove. Gray conversion.
4. N Khurakhove front:
a. 6.7 kmsq in the E part of the pocket (N of Berestky/Illinka and S of Novoslydivka). This is notable as the whole pocket starting to evacuate.
b. 4.2 kmsq in a complex polygon on the N side of the pocket (S side of the Oche bloom). Salient from Vosnesenka reaching south. And then also a salient towards Sonsivka (that is gray conversion). \
5. Pokrovsk front (E Oche bloom): As expected some pocket filling of recent W facing salients. And continued NW.
a. 5.7 kmsq in fields N of Novodmytrivka. Mix of gray conversion and new movement.
b. 4.3 kmsq in and around Yurivka, including finishing that village.
c. 0.7 kmsq further along the NW extending rail line. Village of Zhovte is now in danger.
6. Pischane front: 8.3 kmsq to the S of the bloom. Fields E of Lozova. Kind of a very open area with few towns and very large paddocks.
7. Far NE front: (not sure what to call this, infrequent area, N of Kupiansk): 0.1 kmsq N of Dvorichne. Not sure what the point is of showing this. Unless perhaps this is becoming an active front. I guess this is the case, as this is an area which traditionally has no gray zone and a sharp border. And now we see a gray zone in excess of the little red gain also. Still, not clear if this was a minor probing attack or will become a new active front. Wait and see if more happens.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2024 23:21 utc | 120

Comical, BBC Radio 5Live is running with the cyber-war meme right now. Muh Russian hackers, muh Chinese backdoors…
Dear Santa,
Please could you ask that nice Mr Putin chap to drop one or two weapons on the various BBC premises…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 24 2024 23:26 utc | 122

You should avoid the Bird Brained Communists just like you would a fat girl with gonorrhea
Posted by: Screwdriver | Nov 24 2024 23:25 utc | 122

i tend to not avoid our western propaganda, as it is an usefull learning and education tool to show to our children. it also always reminds me that our regime is nothing but a bunch of liars.
thankfully, our western media relies on repetition and buzzwords, so its always easy to see when they try to indoctrinate and propaganderize. and for some reason, they also manage to contradict themself quite often…
but unfortunately, the vast majority of our “highly educated” western sheeple are still falling for those cheapest of tricks. especially here in germany.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Nov 24 2024 23:43 utc | 124

7. Far NE front: (not sure what to call this, infrequent area, N of Kupiansk): 0.1 kmsq N of Dvorichne. Not sure what the point is of showing this. Unless perhaps this is becoming an active front. I guess this is the case, as this is an area which traditionally has no gray zone and a sharp border. And now we see a gray zone in excess of the little red gain also. Still, not clear if this was a minor probing attack or will become a new active front. Wait and see if more happens.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2024 23:21 utc | 121
won’t repeat what I mentioned earlier about the doubling of conquest by the quarter.
But yes, kupiansk is becoming a thing as the southern work is developing and the doubt is about crossing the Oskil and sustaining the kupiansk attack with a southern front.
Thanks for reminding that I wanted to talk about this for some days now.
BTW, some months ago somebody shared an older version of this map, although often late on calling, it has proved useful to me
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=49.69583811713908%2C37.57172986960748&z=11

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 24 2024 23:45 utc | 126

The millenium 7 link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL7Hb0fcpbU

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2024 0:05 utc | 128

Norwegian | Nov 24 2024 21:15 utc | 99
Had not realized you had already posted the millenium 7 link when I posted it. He was a bit of target I think in a couple of aspects but still was quite interesting.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2024 0:25 utc | 130

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 24 2024 19:16 utc | 67 – Re: Ritter’s take on Oreshnik config
This seems to be common view among the missile guys as far as I can tell, but the general thought is that the IPBVs of an Oreshnik are not multiple rocket-powered vehicles with or w/o submunitions (as they are in the YARS-M ICBM), but are true maneuverable atmospheric hypersonic vehicles with or w/o submunitions.
That’s the best guess (of some) based on the overall hypersonic speed, but there’s still even no solid confirmation of launch point, trajectory or altitude. US knows from SBIRS data, but is unusually secretive about what they know. Pentagon press briefing statements on Oreshnik sounds more like Reddit experts logic than actual fact. Imagine that! Now for my far superior Twitter expert’s logic, lol:
During a typical ICBM or IRBM mid-course, the earlier booster stages are spent, detached and the reentry bus (RV) continues on by itself still loaded with a warhead or MIRVs. It’s traveling outside the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, but is still vulnerable to mid-course interceptors (THAAD, S-500). The loaded RV can’t maneuver enough to evade ABM interceptors, although some have deployable decoys for defense (questionable effectiveness). The warhead or warheads/MIRVs are not released to fly independently until just before reentering the atmosphere (end of mid course phase). From that point on, they’re vulnerable to any anti-ballistic SAMS and typically don’t have evasive maneuvering capability, there’s just more of them to hit after release than the single loaded RV bus.
The Oreshnik IRBM boost phase doesn’t look like a traditional ICBM ballistic boost phase. The intent seems to be to get the payload up to 80 – 100 km (edge of atmosphere or just above) a few hundred km downrange above Mach 12 or so, then release the IPBVs, except they’re not rockets but hypersonic vehicles capable of gliding another 1500 km or so to their targets. High-atmospheric hypersonic flight allows intense maneuvering for evasion and targeting of widely-disbursed, off-axis targets (vs. MIRVs generally lobbed on-axis of missile path). ICBMs could do this, but you need a massive quantity of propellant to power maneuverable (evasive) hypersonic flight for 1000’s of km, there’s heat issues and the payload is limited (yet Avangard does this).
The other twist in Oreshnik’s six HVs is that they apparently carry six submunitions that travel at hypersonic terminal *speeds* but (as far as anyone knows) are not truly hypersonic flight vehicles – they were not seen doing energetic maneuvering for evasion after release and may not be capable of guidance/maneuver/fine targeting at all. Or they are capable, but it wasn’t used or we couldn’t see it.
Scott’s characterization of ‘solid metal slug’ (tungsten alloy rods or whatever) is reasonable speculation for submunitions, but not necessary (and nobody really knows at this point). The Russians don’t need a solid metal slug to survive the heat from 15 seconds or so of submunition flight from the HV to the target after release. They seem to have the metallurgical know-how to use an ablative hypersonic cap/nosecone and body insulation for guidance/explosive payloads that would serve just fine. Solid tungsten or heavy alloys do maximize the kinetic strike effect, but hauling six of them in six HVs would take a ton of booster propellant and is going to kill the maneuverability and glide characteristics of the HV carrying them. Trading off a hundred kg of a monolithic metal slug for a lighter rod and maneuvering/fine terminal guidance might be worth it. Or maybe not.
No idea what shape the mid-course HVs would have, but the Avangard’s manta ray shape doesn’t look practical if you need to stuff six of them in the upper stage of an Oreshnik. Avangard’s shape is fine for a unitary warhead, but probably not ideal for six long, cylindrical submunitions. Now they may well be using a mini-Avangard shape for the six HVs – it’s just that nobody has any idea yet and the Russian MoD isn’t likely to post the blueprints on Telegram. (I’ve asked and they have not responded!)
Oreshnik may also be the ideal first wave weapon for attacking heavily-defended targets. You don’t need a massive 2000 lb. JDAM-class explosion to take out multiple, disbursed components of an AD complex or SAM sites. If the submunitions were precise enough, you could easily wipe them all out, paving the way for successive waves of powerful ballistic or cruise missiles. See what I did there? [cringe]. As Karlof1 pointed out, perfect for airfields (or naval ports too).

Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 25 2024 0:41 utc | 132

The other twist in Oreshnik’s six HVs is that they apparently carry six submunitions that travel at hypersonic terminal *speeds* but (as far as anyone knows) are not truly hypersonic flight vehicles – they were not seen doing energetic maneuvering for evasion after release and may not be capable of guidance/maneuver/fine targeting at all. Or they are capable, but it wasn’t used or we couldn’t see it.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 25 2024 0:41 utc | 133

If the submunitions are moving at Mach 10, and thus uninterceptible, do the need the ability to do energetic manoeuvering or evasion? Not nit picking, just trying to get my head around it, like everyone else.
OTOH from the video it seems like they are released late on and fall in a pretty tight pattern

Posted by: ChatNPC | Nov 25 2024 0:57 utc | 134

Please correct me if I am wrong. The west is working on getting a first generation Iskander prototype. Nothing even close to a 4th generation Iskander. nor do they have the experience brains data and understanding of missile systems that Russia has. The corporate fpr profit MIC is incapable of providing multi decade understandings. Its pay for play. There is no chance of the wqest ever catching up to Russia in either expertese or production. Their best bet was to buy Chinese yj and Russian p800 when they still could and reverse engineer. They dont do that and probably couldnt if they tried. The MIC quoted a hypersonic missile program at a trillion a year. Even the printing press dont have that so its top gun and whatever they have in space.

Posted by: perfectemundo | Nov 25 2024 1:11 utc | 136

ZH has a posting up with the title
Navy’s Indo-Pacific Commander Warns Ukraine Aid Is Draining US Missile Stocks
quote

A top US Navy admiral has warned this week that the recent move of Washington to give advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine is depleting US missile stocks.
Adm. Sam Paparo, Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told a Brookings Institution audience earlier this week that earlier in the war the US was shipping less valuable weaponry to Ukraine, which didn’t deeply impact readiness for big global threats like China. More advanced defense tech is currently being shipped, and this presents a serious problem for the United States’ long-term defense needs.
…
He called for the depleted weaponry to be restored “and then some” – and that this must be an urgent priority.
Among the missile systems being given by the Biden administration to Kiev are Patriot air defense batteries, and the Army’s ATACMS.
European countries have also suffered the same problem of depleted domestic stockpiles. Ukraine’s Western backers are at the same time trying to assist Kiev in jump-starting and expanding its own defense manufacturing sector.

It seems clear that the Russia SMO is depleting Western military stock and the question is whether there will be the push to rebuild military stock in failing economies…..hope not.
Forever wars makes our species look like losers.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2024 1:33 utc | 138

This is imo the strongest item of evidence the western Imperialism has lost its mind and is unconsciously begging for annihilation. It’s a big meatball coming right down the plate for China/Russia to knock out of the fucking park with a well timed swing of the bat.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 25 2024 1:27 utc | 138
The only “dangerous” offer is for the US to do a menage a trois with both russia AND china (iran and all the middle east and ROW royally screwed)
But cope is never ending in western press…

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 25 2024 1:43 utc | 140

This is imo the strongest item of evidence the western Imperialism has lost its mind and is unconsciously begging for annihilation. It’s a big meatball coming right down the plate for China/Russia to knock out of the fucking park with a well timed swing of the bat.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 25 2024 1:27 utc | 138
It is very simple really, to admit the reality of the situation they have brought about is to admit their own fecklessness and stupidity.
Hence the Russians must have help from somebody, they cannot be trouncing “the West” all by themselves, and who better than N. Korea the new Russian ally? And Russia and China and Iran must somehow be divided again by the blandishments of the US’ State Department.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 25 2024 1:58 utc | 142

psychohistorian | Nov 25 2024 1:33 utc | 139
With both limited missile stocks a very limited production potential, the idiot American elite are arguing over who they should fire them at -Russia or China. I guess there is also Iran to think about when allowing targets to missiles. Very sick people living in a fantasy world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2024 2:34 utc | 144

With both limited missile stocks a very limited production potential, the idiot American elite are arguing over who they should fire them at -Russia or China. I guess there is also Iran to think about when allowing targets to missiles. Very sick people living in a fantasy world.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2024 2:34 utc | 145
Good stuff.👌

Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 25 2024 2:39 utc | 146

https://www.youtube.com/live/Ka2gVAdvWUE?si=aqJhRDy9gRzJ1wbz
live…

Posted by: Larsbo | Nov 25 2024 2:52 utc | 148

Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2024 2:34 utc | 145 who wrote
”
Very sick people living in a fantasy world.
”
Speaking of fantasy folk there is the proposed Trump head of US Treasury, Bessent, the short seller.
He who sells what isn’t his’n = short seller
Bessent worked at Kynikos with famed short-seller Jim Chanos and then joined Soros and was a leading member of the team whose bet regarding the Black Wednesday collapse of the British pound garnered over $1 billion for the firm. His bet against the Japanese yen in 2013 brought additional profit.
The trickle of dedollarization will turn into a flood.
###########
Back to Ukraine….where is the confirmation of the 10 ATACMS missiles from yesterday supposedly fired toward the Kursk region?
ZH is reporting

The WSJ report cites a Russian blogger who says North Koreans were present at a location which was struck by Storm Shadows days ago:
The Storm Shadows launched Wednesday struck an estate in Marino, a town in the Russian-controlled part of the Kursk region, according to videos geolocated by the Center for Information Resilience, an online investigation organization, that were verified by The Wall Street Journal. Marino is about 20 miles from the front lines in the province.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2024 3:05 utc | 150

Yes, at this stage of Ukraine’s utter humiliation, this guy is a certified retard.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 24 2024 18:16 utc | 51
As long as this person is not elected to US Senate, tbe Certificate of Retardation is in doubt. But who knows who is behind this tag…

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 25 2024 3:15 utc | 152

Right OK. Lets get one thing straight. There are NO NORTH KOREAN TROOPS engaged in the Russia-West conflict.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 25 2024 3:15 utc | 152
There are in photographs! The small print is that the largest part of N Koreans are Buryats, followed by Yakuts, Tuvans and Kalmyks, immigrant Kyrgyz and and an occasional Russian born Korean. In short, N Koreans are Not Koreans, sometimes abbreviations are misunderstood.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 25 2024 3:36 utc | 154

But yes, kupiansk is becoming a thing as the southern work is developing and the doubt is about crossing the Oskil and sustaining the kupiansk attack with a southern front.
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 24 2024 23:45 utc | 127

The whole thing is rather absurd.
Why does Russia need to cross the Oskol river when it is already on the other side of it on a wide front? They did the incursion towards Volchansk in May, it went nowhere, and ever since you have this sector of the border between the Severodonetsk and Oskol rivers where nothing is happening? Even though the AFU is actually in a rather large salient there that could be collapsed if someone ever felt inclined to do so. Questions…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 25 2024 3:42 utc | 156

ANON2022/157 and 158:
Could you clarify where else the Oskol River is crossed? I looked from the Donetsk to the Russian border and did not see a second crossing. I do have my limitations though and might have missed it. So, where?

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 25 2024 4:09 utc | 158

ANON2022/157 and 158:
Could you clarify where else the Oskol River is crossed? I looked from the Donetsk to the Russian border and did not see a second crossing. I do have my limitations though and might have missed it. So, where?
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 25 2024 4:09 utc | 159

I think you misunderstood. What I meant is that Russia doesn’t have to cross the Oskol between the Seversky Donetsk river in Volchansk and the Russian border (west to east), not between the Russian border and the confluence of Oskol and Seversky Donetsk at the nothern limit of the DNR (north to south). Between Volchansk and the Oskol you have this large space of Russian border, and the Ukrainians are actually in a salient there. Why that has not been closed instead of banging one’s head against Kupyansk from the east I do not understand.
P.S. Russia is still maintaining a separate Kharkov regional administration, and there is periodically talk about officially annexing that small northeastern chunk of Kharkov oblast, plus why even attack Kupyansk if there is no intention to ever go further east? It is not in the LNR. But if you do have plans for Kharkov some day, why not do the logical thing and move where defense is weak? I just don’t get it…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 25 2024 5:13 utc | 160

From the previous thread “Why These New Russian Missiles Are Real Game Changers”:

Posted by: SnatchTerrier | Nov 25 2024 3:26 utc | 824
Hazelnut may be a way to destroy hardened structures without resorting to the ultimate evil of using nukes.
If so, it would explain the significant silence from the west, because they just don’t know how the hell the are going to answer this one.

Great first contribution to the conversation ST. It reminded me of a interesting fact: the kinetic energy released by the rock from space that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago was much greater than the total energy that would be released by detonating ALL nuclear weapons currently in existence.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Nov 25 2024 5:52 utc | 162

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 24 2024 23:30 utc | 124
Andrew Sarchus’ and your comment in the previous thread about capacity to harness non-linear dynamics in connection with weaponry was very enlightening.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Nov 25 2024 6:16 utc | 164

@Newbie | Nov 25 2024 2:04 utc | 144

Trump has so many “china business” sponsors in his administration (and not so few “kick ukraine under the EU bus”)
that the most disturbing option would be the ROW being thrown under the bus if both countries renege on their multipolar commitment and accept to sustain the next 300 years of neo-colonial model.

Right now the US and China need each other, China needs to export its trinkets and the US needs to import them. China only managed to lift so many of its zillions out of poverty by the export of its slave labour produced trinkets. And the Chinese commentators elsewhere would have said that domestic demand in China is so big that the export sector is not really of utmost importance but that is BS, China needs to export or die. Only Russia is in the enviable situation where it doesn’t really need to import or export anything, so is not dependent on anyone.
However China should have realized by now that the Western model is at the end of its lifespan (reserve currencies only last 80-100 years), so its not in China’s long term interests to hang onto the US as its consumer lifeline for ever and ever.
With regards to the neo-colonial model, Russia has already caused serious harm to French interests in Africa by assisting lots of African nations to get some independence from France. Basically Africa props up the West by always exporting its wealth to the West for pennies so now Russia wants Africa to rather export its wealth to the West in pounds. The West can’t survive without its cheap resources from Africa, so if Africa charges the proper price for its exports the West collapses. China can’t help in this regard as China is too closely coupled to the West at present, with China being the biggest beneficiary of globalization.
So China is very quiet at present. China can easily invade Taiwan and relieve the pressure on Russia in Ukraine but that would hurt China’s trade. In addition Russia probably doesn’t want China to rock the boat at present as Russia is destroying the West quite effectively in Ukraine already. Just so North Korea could easily attack South Korea but Russia doesn’t want North Korea to rock the boat. And in the Middle East Russia is forever telling Syria not to attack Israel even though Israel bombs Syria on a weekly basis because there is no need to escalate matters into a global conflict when the West is dying already. Russia’s SloMO in Ukraine is just hastening the West’s demise.
So yes, hopefully China has the brains to realise that the West’s good times can’t last so its best that China just remain neutral while taking advantage of the West’s unsustainable consumerism for as long as possible.

Posted by: gT | Nov 25 2024 6:43 utc | 166

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 25 2024 5:13 utc | 161
I think the term you are looking for is logistics.
Posted by: watcher | Nov 25 2024 5:38 utc | 162

Look at the map. Stariy Khutor on the Russian side of the border to Prikolotnoe to Veliky Burluk to Dvorichna. All on land directly on the other side, no need to cross the river.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Nov 25 2024 7:29 utc | 168

@Newbie | Mon, 25 Nov 2024 02:04:00 GMT | 144

that the most disturbing option would be the ROW being thrown under the bus if both countries renege on their multipolar commitment and accept to sustain the next 300 years of neo-colonial model.

I don’t think you understand what multipolar means. Or at least you’re using it in the wrong context. There’s no “commitment” to multipolarity. It’s a natural ordering of the international system.

Posted by: James M. | Nov 25 2024 7:34 utc | 170

Posted by: watcher | Nov 24 2024 21:01 utc | 96
I read Lance’s post as suggested by
ElbowRoom | Nov 24 2024 16:56 utc | 27
and it was a good read but the final conclusion of a wonder weapon the West wants to use came out of the blue, a total non-sequitur.
The previous part about the West always escalating bit by bit while Russia only did two big escalatory moves logically support the conclusion that it is Russia the side that will deliver big escalatory moves.
I thougth the guy made good observations but that his logic in using those observations was poor.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Nov 25 2024 6:13 utc | 164

Lance’s Substack link in question:
https://lancepeatling.substack.com/p/now-thats-quite-a-firework-you-have
re: wunderwaffen
My personal nightmare, is that they are sitting on some particularly evil bio-weapon.
We can laugh all we want about the US’s new F35, their inability to field Hypersonics, and the possible sad state of their aging Nuclear arsenal… but follow the money: missile research money has been going into bio-weapons research, and there is very little to laugh about, given advances in genetic engineering, CRISPR, and a proven inhumanity with regard to causing “excess statistics”.
How many bio-labs around the world? Ethno-specific bio-weapons. Weaponized ticks and migratory birds. Air-borne infectious agents. Time-delayed onset.
Covid was a not-quite-dry-run for “something”.
What if the next one has extreme lethality? They’ve already floated that 7/8 of humanity needs to just “go”… for a more “sustainable” world fleet of private jets.
Hiroshima & Nagasaki were “justified” by the arguments (a) “We saved an estimated 5M American deaths in a projected ground invasion”, and (b) “We had to scare the Red Army from joining the war on Japan.”
(It’s irrelevant whether you believe or accept either of these arguments, someone felt that “justification of atrocities” was a requirement.)
(c) “Studying real-world effects of nuclear weapons on actual human beings” was just a lucky (read: sick) by-product.
I read it as: they are prodding Russia for response, as “justification” for something just awful.
“We had to do it… Putin was planning on marching to Paris next week at the head of 3-million North Koreans!!! *gasp!*”

Posted by: retroflecks | Nov 25 2024 7:53 utc | 172

My personal nightmare, is that they are sitting on some particularly evil bio-weapon
Posted by: retroflecks | Nov 25 2024 7:53 utc | 173
They are. The N-B-C guy from Russia repeatedly had press conferences in the last three years with proof of all three being developed and some used in Ukr since Maidan. You can find them on any Russian news agency, the entire Powerpoint presentation with photos, maps etc.
As you know Russia is surrounded by US biolabs even in their (more or less) allied countries. As far as I know not a single one has closed any biolab. I suppose no one expects Russia to win anything, they don’t want to side with the losers so they don’t recognize the referendums either. Otherwise there’s no reason to host another country’s nukes, bio-weapons or dangerous research in yours. It’s 100% guaranteed you will die even in a small war, but the owner may escape with no problems.

Posted by: rk | Nov 25 2024 8:28 utc | 174

What happens to the Trump supporters at MoA if Trump escalates in Ukraine (and/or Palestine)?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 25 2024 6:24 utc | 166

I am not Trump supporter, but I am citizen of US colony, so I am nervously waiting for what he’ll do.
Escalation in Palestine will be no surprise, but in case of Russia/Ukr, I am still cautiously optimistic. However, considering he is surrounded by mad hawks and MIC whores, I feel my cautious optimism is too naive.
Still hope for the best, trying to prepare for the worst (if possible).

Posted by: Jergus Lapin | Nov 25 2024 8:50 utc | 176

Zelensky keeps investing to make Pokrovsk a ‘fortress city’ (Festung), but seems the front is moving far past south-west of Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk can be the last thing to fall in this cycle. When the front has moved to the west, the Festung city becomes more or less moot.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2024 9:24 utc | 178

Screwdriver (120).
Now lets see – European countries sending missiles and military personnel to Ukraine to launch missiles into Russia, is war – I’m calling for the bases that are aiding and abetting this to be targeted – if the shoe were on the other foot do think for one second, the USA wouldn’t strike those bases?
Nato/Europe is advancing its mission creep by allowing Ukraine to fire missiles into Russia – I won’t say that its you that’s too stupid to realise what’s coming down the line with regards to Nato/Europe aggression towards Russia – but if you can’t see the Wests stepping up its use of weapons against Russia, the you haven’t been paying attention.
Of course folk like yourself think the West is goading Russia into an all out attack – when precision attacks on military facilities that are keeping the war going – should be the targets for Putin.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 25 2024 10:13 utc | 180

So far only one photo of the attack
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/45039

In an attempt to cover the airbase in the Kursk region, the enemy again used ATACMS. Fortunately, there have been no aircraft there for quite some time now.
A number of sources report that there were 8 missiles and all but one were shot down. Unfortunately, there is no other information yet.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Nov 25 2024 10:26 utc | 182

Inspired by :
@ Posted by: watcher | Nov 24 2024 21:01 utc | 96
“But for the war mongering trolls here, Russia will not start WWIII until it is pretty damn sure it will win. It will be the job of the USA to start WWIII. Who wins is yet to be known except we ordinary people are all losers.”
——————-
Russia hasn’t started any wars for a long time.
It does for sure End them.
WW3 has already been rumbling on for 23 years.
The failure to get even as far as St Petersburg, nevermind Moscow is already baked in. Heck they couldn’t even be dislodged from Syria! Nor has natzos even landed any (nonSF) boots on Crimea.!
Just the British Royal Navy old pirate family with an admiral or two in every generation fuckwits with their toy navy boats – really! The toy sized sub drones and a couple of anti ship missiles that were used on attempted sinking of a bridge, ffs!
Running their bucanneer Ops from Odessa Caves, oil platforms and undercover transport ships!
Fucking deluded. Now they failed a Light Brigade Suicidal charge was sent into Kursk! Let the Army wallahs take the attention away from their Naval gazing failures!
Smirnoff (vodka brand) is on back sale and as Xmas approaches. Russian music is no longer barred on classical radio. The nauseous blue and yellow flags have disappeared. Slava Ukraine is as passé as Sieg Heiling and will soon be seen as odiously;
The Ziofascists have confused the public propaganda-hard to keep the message ducks in a row when the easy delicious final victory after centuries, is turned to ashes on the tongue, between cup and lip! (Yes mixed sorry, but apt).
‘Ordinary folk’ whose religion it is, even wonder why Ukraine has to still be played in the football competitions- they are shit.
There is only the controlled daily spewing of news and media narratives which really is as good as a wet paper bag for holding the dog poop that is Ukraine adventurism.
It is difficult to blame Putin as being Hitler, when the Zionazis are killing Palestinian children and the Germans are supporting that genocide as are we! The brain cells of the population are waking upto hypocrisy!
‘Hey maybe maybe Russia ain’t the bad guys, maybe it’s the Zios and and … us 💡!!??’
The Tory Party having been let off the bridge as the ships they floated sink. The useless from begining A/C carriers launched on their watch, the Syrian debacle, Skripals, BrexShit…and yes the Covid (please take it to the Open thread, there’s enough attempts to throw this thread off kilter, those doing it stand out like sore thumbs). They’ll have Pabour to blame! It’ll be Corbyns fault!
The Russians and Chinese and Iranians and Yemenis and North Koreans are finishing this WW3!
Don’t believe me? The Financial Times tries to take the blame away from their Naval and Army cousins, are already setting scapegoats and excuses into play.
Apparently the 10k North Koreans that Shelensky plucked out of the air that had been transformed into a supposedly much more believable 11k has now been given the authoritative FT stamp of 12,000!
They even spiced that up with Yemenis who had apparently been tricked into the frontline of the RF but have somehow managed to escape to TALK to the FT!
They join the Nepaleseand Indians who also supposedly got tricked to go to Russia instead of Ukraine where they would no doubt be treated a lot better!
Will miracles of journalism never be absent from these great publications and media of the U.K.? The BBC and Channel 4 even looking to justify the Kursk escapade as one victory!
So yes the RF has survived the assault and blitz – military and economic. It has re-found its Great Patriotic War soul and spirit.
It has developed its MIC and got actual wunderwaffen made and tested and now deployed. Now it is on its way to collect its debts as they always do – as Bismarck long ago warned.
How do we escape our perfidy this time? Who can we blame?
The always late Yankees? Well it’ll have to be Drumpff because can’t say they have been wrong since Cookies Nudelman rode through Maidan with her fat naked arse fucking the EU. How about tve usual French? Manny has had his toungue down Shelenskys throat from day one and will avoid the usual easy surrender monkey target; the Germans? all-in crazed suicidal can’t be blamed for not having put boots on the ground this time! The Italians didnt really turn up, etc … it’s the Nordics and the usual drunken village idiot, that will carry the can – The dumb Pollack.
Them’s the Nuts! How do we like ‘em?
I’ll leave the barflies with a very popular chocolate bar in the eighties ‘Nuts! Whole Hazelnuts!’ song to promote it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgr54jspYPo
Arhhh went we so sweet and innocent funny harmless stereotypes in them days? Lies then- lies now. Good jingle though, and chocolate was nice too until the yAnks bought it a few years ago.
Adieu!

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 25 2024 10:51 utc | 184

@Republicofscotland
“I’m suggesting that Putin should use these shiny new weapons – to take out Nato/European military bases in Europe – bases that are forwarding the missiles to Ukraine to fire into Russia.”
Just track the weapons when they are shipped to 404 country and destroy them at the very moment they enter 404 territory.

Posted by: Apollyon | Nov 25 2024 11:24 utc | 186

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 24 2024 23:30 utc | 124
Andrew Sarchus’ and your comment in the previous thread about capacity to harness non-linear dynamics in connection with weaponry was very enlightening.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Nov 25 2024 6:16 utc | 165
Informed speculation, at best. I was very interested in “chaos theory” 30-40 years ago, still am. But I haven’t kept up with it. It is hairy stuff.
Russians have had great mathematicians for a long time, back in the 1800s that I know of, and chess. I expect the Chinese are working on it too.
Living things live on the border between chaos and order, that is where the interesting stuff goes on. Total chaos and total order both are dead, boring. For real complexity, you have to get a little bit chaotic, throw in some randomness, not too much determinism.
I enjoy you and Andrew’s contributions too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 25 2024 11:39 utc | 188

Straight edge here 😉
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 25 2024 2:52 utc | 148
—————
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_Threat
Saw them in concert at UMD in the early 80s. They said “this stage is yours” (and meant it) to the crowd. Total slam dancing and all. I went stage diving. Not really a punk (the clothes and all), more of a jock back then. But a buddy dragged me there and it was just an amazing show. Physical…literally (and not how the millennials misuse that word).

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 25 2024 11:58 utc | 190

Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 25 2024 0:41 utc | 133 “US knows from SBIRS data, but is unusually secretive about what they know”
“unusually secretive”?
How often have they disclosed SBIRS data in the past?
Though unimperator apparently doesn’t believe they can track anything.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 21 2024 16:24 utc | 125 “This is because Nato lacks ability to track incoming targets in Ukraine, and likely even ability to see launches of such targets”

Posted by: Ed4 | Nov 25 2024 12:24 utc | 192

Posted by: gT | Nov 25 2024 6:43 utc | 167
Excellent analysis. Thank you.
It is death by thousand cuts. Can’t see dollar going further than 2030-35
Will nato,aukus etc survive without US.

Posted by: Michael J | Nov 25 2024 12:47 utc | 194

196 – The UK government are even more gung-ho about fighting Russia (or more accurately, getting Kiev to fight Russia) than the Americans are.

Posted by: Waldorf | Nov 25 2024 12:52 utc | 196

198 – Topping X, or Twitter as it used to be called.

Posted by: Waldorf | Nov 25 2024 12:59 utc | 198

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Nov 25 2024 11:54 utc | 190
The Eurovassals deploying all their AD assets would make it easier for Russia. They can then whack Nato AD assets and any air base they might try to setup with new experimental weapons, instead of the need to whack them in Germany or UK.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2024 13:09 utc | 200