News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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November 21, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-279
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You’re not listening, Light-years fromHome. Good fellow, nukes don’t exist because it’s not possible. Theorize and build all you like, they didn’t split the atom for a bomb. It’s nonsense and never happened. That is my drift, and it is true.
Posted by: T J Foster | Nov 21 2024 21:39 utc | 301
@Posted by: jurgen | Nov 21 2024 21:09 utc | 287
“Current topic might really help individuals like Clown Shoes to learn a thing or two about physics, especially regarding atmosphere density and it’s correlation to vehicle speed”
No, you are quite right! Of course atmospheric drag slows the object down, especially the deeper it gets and density of the air rises! A few things;
1) This exact same principle applies to any falling object from sub-orbit or orbit, including the ICBM attack RF just did.
2) The difference between a loitering munition that’s delivered to orbit vs having that munition carried on an ICBM is all about separation of the weapon and the delivery vehicle at different times. Yes, of course when the object leaves orbit it will be slowed tremendously by the atmosphere -however- it still has a ton of kinetic energy already imparted to it (most of the heavy lifting was done by the fully reusable launch platform) Yes, of course at some point the atmospheric drag and air pushing against the falling object is equal to the downward force of gravity and you have your maximum possible speed. If you’ll note, in my original post I mentioned having a small rocket booster to give the object a final “kick” as it’s dropping down the gravity well, but really that’s just a bonus.
3) Air resistance varies tremendously based on the type, shape and orientation of the object. Yes, as starship was coming in to land it took about 15 minutes. That’s because they had it oriented in such a way as to maximize the drag and air resistance (belly flop, at an angle for the heat shield to protect as much as possible) and it’s also a helluva big monster, slowing it down as much as possible so as to be able to land. For a weapon though? Imagine an a much smaller “dart” or narrow long cylinder with some mass and aerodynamic shaping. Of course air drag will still impact it and slow it considerably but not nearly as much.
4) Cost, cost cost (and ease of deployment) An ICBM is a pretty expensive piece of hardware, single use, you launch it, those MIRV’s are coming back somewhere in a few min. Loitering munitions in space? (basically, FAB’s in space) way, WAY cheaper and easier to manufacture at scale. You could seed orbit with literally hundreds or even thousands of them with a few dozen starship launches, then as they’re in orbit you have complete ability to strike anywhere on the planet, any time. All for a fraction of the cost!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 21:39 utc | 302
The dumbass Yankees, being stupid, lazy bullies, didn’t bother developing hypersonic missiles because they were able to BULLY their LAPDOGS, such as Oz et al, into buying their second-rate military junk at Premium Prices.
Hence no incentive to continually upgrade their outdated junk!t
Hoarsewhisperer | Nov 21 2024 18:14 utc | 184
You almost got it, definitely stupid and bullies.
But you’re giving them too much credit in saying they ‘didn’t bother’ creating one.
As if they simply could if they only wanted to.
Well they can’t.
They have been trying desperately but keep failing.
Their RnD is not in the same league as Russia/China or Iran even.
About time they know their place.
With the ridiculous amount of money they waste on defense, the following article only makes the banana republic look like a big expensive joke.
Which it is.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a45062732/dark-eagle-hypersonic-missile-flight-test-canceled/
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Nov 21 2024 21:41 utc | 303
We never saw a decapitation strike from Pershing or whatevetime?
Posted by: Mario | Nov 21 2024 21:11 utc | 290
Scroll down to “Peacekeeper MIRV testing”.
Wikimedia MIRV
Posted by: Passerby | Nov 21 2024 21:43 utc | 304
Holy Mother.
That response was like watching a fantasy movie with Zeus unleashing his thunderbolts.
Game, set & match, mofos!
Posted by: Suresh | Nov 21 2024 21:44 utc | 305
The Deep State already pulled on the first loose thread of Trump’s new sweater.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 21:25 utc | 300
Yep, once again, the 3 time POTUS candidate and political veteran ex-President appears to have been blindsided early in the transition by the DS. Either DJT has always been a fraud, a doofus, or senile. No lessons learned from the past 8 years, pathetic. Expect Tulsi and RFK Jr won’t last long either. But DS Elon Musk and DS Peter Thiel (and Thiel’s puppet, Vance) aren’t going anywhere.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 21:48 utc | 306
Old hippie
Then I will gracefully leave, never to return. But facts don’t go away, nor does truth.
Posted by: T J Foster | Nov 21 2024 21:49 utc | 307
UK Mogowan says “UK troopes are ready to go to fight Russia”
After nearly 3 years of hideing behind ukrainians like the cowards they are.
This guy has the brass neck to speak up today and say this.
The very day that ground troops on “the western front” have almost become obsoleit.
And why ? Becouse the uk and usa choose to esculate by fireing long rainge missiles into Russia, dispite haveing been warned of the esculatory consequence. Of this action.
He must know that this will be a direct war by missile on uk terrain, from here on.
Priceless. Suicidal.
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 21 2024 21:49 utc | 308
So what about the nuclear power stations?
Posted by: Cynic | Nov 21 2024 21:14 utc | 293
TJ says that they’re really powered by hamsters. Millions of them on little hamster wheels.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Nov 21 2024 21:50 utc | 309
Posted by: ivanislav | Nov 21 2024 18:33 utc | 197
all putin ever said was that russia would respond appropriately.
All his haters say he draws red lines threatening world war iii, when his threats are never anything like that. Just the boring, old, vague, “respond appropriately”.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 21:50 utc | 310
Posted by: T J Foster | Nov 21 2024 21:13 utc | 292
>But trembling humanity, exult! Nukes are fake and nothing to worry about.
Nukes are not fake, but it is pointless to worry about them, especially for us ordinary people.
Nothing we can do about it.
> They have all the weapons they need to level cities into the dust but nukes are fake.
That is correct, they have weapons capable to level cities into the dust.
I call those weapons nukes. You can call them any way you want, doesn’t matter.
“You say potatoes, I say smoke you…”
Posted by: hopehely | Nov 21 2024 21:51 utc | 311
The daily Willy at around minute 20:00 shows 408 kmsq as of the 21st (Ozzi date).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dnu6GTikrM
That extrapolates out to 582 kmsq in the whole month. Or rounding it off to nearest 60 to 600. Which would be 0.1% of Ukraine territory and record (since the first couple months of the war, for RFA). Would be the first time, got into that first decimal place, instead of the second.
No sleep for the wicked…gotta keep taking territory. I don’t want to hear weather whining!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07Y0cy-nvAg
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 21 2024 21:52 utc | 312
Posted by: Ed4 | Nov 21 2024 20:34 utc | 267
Stop digging. You’re making yourself look more silly with your advocacy for NATO. No one here cares what you say. Your attempts to sound like you have military knowledge are pathetic. It’s clear that you get your information from MIC press releases and The Daily Telegraph and then regurgitate it here.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Nov 21 2024 21:57 utc | 313
I see conventional strikes on nuke power plants as the next step of escalation. Ukraine has already dabbled with it a bit, but not hard corps. But could see both sides moving to that level. And doing it very seriously.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 21 2024 21:58 utc | 314
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 21 2024 21:24 utc | 299
Yes, apparently some were quite amenable, after they’d had been given hot cocoa by the guards, who’d found them freezing, after being chained, for hours, to some military structure on the base’s perimeter.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:00 utc | 315
Loitering munitions in space? (basically, FAB’s in space) way, WAY cheaper and easier to manufacture at scale. You could seed orbit with literally hundreds or even thousands of them with a few dozen starship launches, then as they’re in orbit you have complete ability to strike anywhere on the planet, any time. All for a fraction of the cost!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 21:39 utc | 303
IMO, this is the intended primary use of Starship. Tungsten rods loitering in orbit as kinetic weapons were discussed in the 1980s, but the cost to orbit was too high. And the Space Shittle could only orbit 20 tonnes, then required at least 6 months of maintenance, plus new solid fuel boosters and a new external tank before it could fly again. The V3 of Starship is planned to be able to orbit 200 tonnes, then land, refuel, and do it again, in less than a week.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 22:00 utc | 316
Russia Says US Missile Defense Base in Poland Is a Potential Target
https://news.antiwar.com/2024/11/21/russia-says-us-missile-defense-base-in-poland-is-a-potential-target/
Posted by: burak | Nov 21 2024 22:01 utc | 317
I know “Russian ICBM” sounds scary, but “Undetectable Russian IRBM with multiple hypersonic warheads” is much more likely to be what the Pentagon and NATO are obsessing about right now.
@ PavewayIV | Nov 21 2024 19:30 utc | 228
Awesome post of the day. Erudition such as PavewayIV’s is warmly appreciated around here. Evidently RF just staged a very interesting demonstration of imaginative destruction. Evidently Russians, relatively unconstrained by profit-uber-alles, are deadly serious and militarily competent — producing the finest, most fearsome ballistic engineers the world has yet seen. Whoda thunk it?
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 21 2024 22:02 utc | 318
Tungsten rod orbital drop weapons (Rods from God) were tested by China and found to be a dead-end. Tungsten can’t withstand the heat of re-entry well enough to make an effective impact on the surface.
Posted by: a stone | Nov 21 2024 22:03 utc | 319
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 21:25 utc | 300
Alternatively, Trump knew Gaetz was a problematic pick, read his statement, and is preparing to engage in the Washington two-step, after having thrown his supporters some overly red meat. Remember, Trump II is different to Trump I, delivery of the back-to-the-future agenda is the priority, not picking fights with compromised, fat-cat senators, that comes later.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:06 utc | 320
The Russian Duma has aproved a 30% increase in military defence spending.
Nato hits hornets nest with stick and this is what happens.
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 21 2024 22:07 utc | 321
Posted by: Cynic | Nov 21 2024 21:14 utc | 293
************
He says splitting the atom is not possible, I guess all those nuclear power plants worthing billions of dollars are fake, there is no reactor, no nuclear fuel, no irradiated fuel, no reprocessing plants in la Hague, no spent fuel cask facilities in the world, etc. Everything fake.
Btw, the dozen billion dollars dedicated to nuclear fusion are for nothing since I suppose that if splitting atoms is not possible, fusion isn’t neither.
Meaning that the sun is not a star burning hydrogen and helium etc. in nuclear fusion reactions, I suppose it is just a huge bulb lamp operated by God.
Posted by: scc | Nov 21 2024 22:08 utc | 322
Suresh @ 306
That response was like watching a fantasy movie with Zeus unleashing his thunderbolts.
The real reason for the panic in Dnipro this morning
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:11 utc | 323
Putin’s new physical principles.
Orbital bombardment by wolfram rods of god. Didnt expect that.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 21 2024 16:47 utc | 137
…difference in kinetic energy delivered by missiles traveling at Mach 3 versus Mach 13. I don’t recall the exact figures, but the difference was very impressive as a warhead arriving at the speed is overkill–a warhead isn’t needed at all.
Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 21 2024 17:05 utc | 144
Possibly. Targeting precision is unknown. That is why Starship is a game changer. Orbital space based artillery.
Yushmash was previously attacked a few years ago iirc. If the exodus of high end cars is true, indicates no reason to stay.
Posted by: jopalolive | Nov 21 2024 22:11 utc | 324
Perhaps the next “demonstration” will be the use of this missile, this time with a nuke warhead, exploded in the Arctic Circle or in the middle of the Pacific or somewhere equally remote but deliberately monitorable. Seriously folks, does anyone not recognize that the leadership of the West have lost their minds individually and collectively? Kiss your loved ones tonight.
Posted by: second salvo | Nov 21 2024 22:13 utc | 325
Something tells me that after today’s event the time for dicking around is over for the US and UK.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 21 2024 22:14 utc | 326
Posted by: bog | Nov 21 2024 20:08 utc | 248
Not quite. A large city like Newcastle upon Tyne had five warheads targeting it, docks, (both upper and lower River) airport, and the major conurbation centres, including suburbs. The other thing about MIRV’s is that they contain decoys, sometimes upwards of a third of the payload.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 21:11 utc | 289
Well, I stand corrected and I might have to use 2 warheads from 36 on bigger cities.
However let us not forget the bigger destructive power of thermonuclear (fusion) bombs when compared to older fission nukes.
Hence one might move the warhead yield dial up for large cities in the 500KT range.
Maybe one dock made of hard concrete will survive the blast… BUT I really doubt there will be enough humans left able to operate the city infrastructure for a very long time.
Posted by: bog | Nov 21 2024 22:15 utc | 327
Russia attacked at night… simples…maximum visual impact.
Posted by: Jo | Nov 21 2024 22:17 utc | 328
Drifter @ 317
IMO, this is the intended primary use of Starship. Tungsten rods loitering in orbit as kinetic weapons
You mean we are not going to colonize Mars? 😩
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:19 utc | 329
Trying to argue with contrarians is a lost case.
They will never admit any evidence against their beliefs.
That’s why this bar seems sometimes 4chan.
One thing is to be critical of the narrative around unevidenced events and another thing is to not recognize the evidences of facts.
Example of evidenced facts in this Matrix:
The humans went to the Moon. Yes. The Apollo missions were real. You can see the marks of the rovers from independent sources.
The humans built nuclear weapons. Yes. There are hundreds of videos in Archive that show the difference between a TNT explosion and a nuclear one. Even if the contrarians are so blind to figure out how is a nuclear process, to see the blast of thst weapon, would be enough?
The humans live on a planet that revolt around a stat. Wait? Sarcasm…
Those are facts. Period.
Another thing is:
9/11 was perpetrated by a bunch of islamists with cutters who passed all the controls and hijacked 3 aircrafts whih hundreds of people to impact the WTC and the Pentagon. No evidence. Fake.
Covid-19 is a pandemic that requires global confinement because, according to Merkel and etc., we gonna die and we were dying. Ask the rest of the World… How it was in Africa, without vaccination?
The humans are heating the World and producing a catastrophic climate change that in the next years gonna make all of us extinct. The climate experts are fighting between them because the so called evidence is poor: they have a little range of measurements and models to make predictions. At least, dubious.
So, don’t be a fool and learn to discriminate the facts from the opinions.
In this Matrix…
Posted by: Toast | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 330
throwing a bunch of shit into the sky is not a weapon a la space X. The Earth is a big, big, big place, and the trick to weapons is not the launch but the accuracy.
also, about half my posts never make it….
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 331
LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 19:49 utc | 237 – My understanding from the videos is six missiles, each with six warheads (but a couple appear to only have four), so 36 warheads total. If you look at the clearer videos, you can kind of see that each of the six distinct arrivals a few seconds apart are all small groups of warheads. This only refers to what happened within a 15 second or so timeframe. There were other missiles/explosions in the factory complex and Dnipro aside from this attack.
karlof1 | Nov 21 2024 20:02 utc | 243 – As explained above, I think (danger) there were six separate missiles in the salvo. The payload on each one was six hypersonic warheads, so 36 warheads in total. However: nobody on any side has claimed or confirmed six missiles (yet) – this is just a (my) SWAG based on how large we assume a single maneuverable hypersonic kinetic warhead would be *and* the assumption that they’re a bit smaller and lighter than the four maneuverable nuke warheads the RS-26 Rubezh could carry.
bog | Nov 21 2024 20:08 utc | 248 – You could probably just bundle six unguided tungsten rods into each warhead, and put six of those guided warheads in an Oreshnik for 36 white hot dumb kinetic kill thingys per missile. If you us precision-guided *submunitions* inside each warhead as you suggest, then I think (danger) that it would be seriously pushing the size/weight/hypersonic survivability limits of what’s possible. But Russians seem pretty clever, so who knows. You may be right.
karlof1: Oreshnik would be great for airfields, specifically for destroying aircraft in hardened shelters *if* the warheads were precision-guided. If each warhead, in turn, had six precision-guided submunitions, then you could take out an entire wing of aircraft in shelters with one missile. Prime targets in the missile factory were supposedly underground/hardened. It will be interesting to see (if ever) if the hypersonic warheads penetrated deep enough to matter. Theoretically, a few meters of concrete shouldn’t be a problem for anything of substance screaming in at Mach 10.
BTW, does ‘Oreshnik’ mean something in the context of Russian missile program, or is it just a random name? It sounds like something a Russian grandpa would call his little grand daughter. “Come here, my cute little Oreshnik!” Maybe that’s creepy? Forget I said that.
Ok my fellow brits who wants to volanteer to become western cannon fodder.
Mmmm whats not to like…. nice cold muddy trench, in midwinter.
Sitting duck whilst watching ya mates blown to bits with drones and every thing else.
One way ticket.
Roll up roll up lemmings.
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 21 2024 22:22 utc | 333
Tungsten rod orbital drop weapons (Rods from God) were tested by China and found to be a dead-end. Tungsten can’t withstand the heat of re-entry well enough to make an effective impact on the surface.
Posted by: a stone | Nov 21 2024 22:03 utc | 320
That’s an easy problem to solve, put an ablative heat shield material around them, 1960s technology. After all these would be single use munitions, no expensive and fragile ceramic tiles needed.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 22:24 utc | 334
Milites @ 321
Alternatively, Trump knew Gaetz was a problematic pick, read his statement, and is preparing to engage in the Washington two-step, after having thrown his supporters some overly red meat.
He didn’t do Gaetz much a favor, wonder if he was informed he’d be red meat, really fucked up his life. Maybe he’ll be made ambassador to Thailand in recompense.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:24 utc | 335
Experts predict mass panic in Ukraine after Russia’s warnings about the use of Oreshnik missiles
The Russian president made a strong move by declaring that before the latest strikes missile Russia will warn the civilian population with the Oreshnik system. However, experts do not rule out that these warnings will only lead to panic in Ukraine. This is what the Ukrainian Telegram channel Legitimacy writes.
Ukraine will face mass panic if Russia announces that it will start striking on a certain date and names, for example, fifty probable targets, but strikes only one from this list. That is when real panic will begin, because in the other named places they will wait, and it will not be possible to live in constant anticipation of a strike for long. This will lead to the closure of many enterprises, the population will flee to Europe again, and the economy will finally die.
Earlier, the Russian leader, commenting on the strikes on Russia by American and British missiles, said that Russia on Thursday morning tested the latest medium-range missile system “Oreshnik” in a non-nuclear hypersonic version with a strike on “Yuzhmash” in Dnepropetrovsk. The missile develops a speed of 10 Machs, existing systems Defense is unable to intercept it. At the same time, Russia will warn the civilian population of Ukraine in the event of strikes by this complex.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 21 2024 22:25 utc | 336
i would fill experimental missiles like Oreshnik’s warhead cavity with weird materials and components, perhaps 20 year old failed prototype materials from a junk pile.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:32 utc | 337
PavewayIV @ 333
BTW, does ‘Oreshnik’ mean something in the context of Russian missile program, or is it just a random name?
I googled it, very little info at least in english and no picts at all, pretty top secret stuff. If I got it right it means hazel tree, maybe the MIRVs reminded someone of the hazelnut clusters? Cute name for a deadly weapon of mass destruction.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 338
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 21 2024 22:02 utc | 319
The US Minuteman III was the first ICBM to have MIRV capability, and given the impact velocities of its warheads are hypersonic (5x Speed of Sound) then the US has boasted this technology 50 years ago. NATO have been obsessing about this threat ever since the Soviets introduced a similar system in ‘79.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 339
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 340
you, of all people, should know “hypersonic” in this context does not simply mean “faster than the speed of sound”.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:38 utc | 340
PavewayIV @ 333
I don’t think it could be six missiles, but if it was then they have them to spare. That would be better than “duck, you suckers” it would be “run, you suckers!”
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:40 utc | 341
Oreshnik is like a divorce.
At first, you don’t believe it. You try to not go to the lawyer because you’re in denial.
At the end, you call the lawyer every day to sign whatever, because you are done.
Posted by: Toast | Nov 21 2024 22:40 utc | 342
@ LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:19 utc | 330
You mean we are not going to colonize Mars? 😩
Hilariously enough, I think that’s the reason why this hasn’t been weaponized (yet) For all the noise about Musk, he truly just wants a ship to be able to somewhat feasibly get people to Mars. No one took it or him seriously, but he was making enough money on other things (Falcon, Tesla, power systems) to mostly be able to self finance, and what he wasn’t able to pay for himself or his businesses he was able to get various Gov’s to chip in for real value added ability- example, the only org other than Russia that can get U.S astronauts to space, or launch their satellites for a fraction of cost and time required by ULA, you know, little things like that.
Anyway. Here we are. A rocket that no one realistically thought would be real is now here, and only Spacex (and therefore U.S) has access to it. Just like watershed, world changing moments, most people are standing around with their mouths agape either in denial or not fully getting how much of a game changer this is. And yes, while it will likely get us back to the moon and on to mars, folks are starting to clue in to just how much more it can really do.
Last thing- (I apologize as don’t want to spam the thread, so will stop my posting on this topic for now here)- it’s not about the weapons platform. It’s about who can get the most tonnage into orbit the fastest for the cheapest. Right now, U.S has that advantage an order of magnitude, or more, above anyone else though they’re not using it…. yet. But folks are catching on, all you have to do is look at the scale of the factory facilities being built in Texas to see that SOMEONE has seen the light and is going all in on mass production. It makes tremendous sense for the U.S to embrace this advantage in space precisely because they don’t have parity in hypersonic weapons. So, their answer as always will be to “go around or above” the problem, a time honored tradition for U.S planning.
Can’t get ground or air launched hypersonics working? No problem, you can achieve the same general effect by splitting the weapon into two components, one of which is a reusable carrier that just has to deliver the munitions to orbit. Once you’re in orbit, the lions share of the work has already been done and you have a tremendous energy surplus to burn for anything you want to bring back down. Re the whole “But it’ll burn up and disintegrate before it hits!!” argument? It depends. Enter at the wrong angle and speed and wrong orientation? Sure. However, if you have some type of heat shield- likely ablative and relatively cheap, it only needs to work once 🙂 and you don’t biff the math on where and how you return- no prob bob.
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 22:41 utc | 343
Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 333
It seems to mean “Hazel”:
Here
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 21 2024 22:41 utc | 344
z and v telegram reportedlu
❗️🇷🇺 And the next positive factor is that after today’s use of “Oreshnik” and Putin’s statement, the number of those wishing to introduce troops into Ukraine for a “police operation in the border area” has noticeably decreased.
The 🇵🇱 Poles, 🇷🇴 Romanians and 🇭🇺 Hungarians, through foreign ministry channels, have requested contact from Russia on this topic. They want to discuss security.
Posted by: Jo | Nov 21 2024 22:44 utc | 345
BTW, does ‘Oreshnik’ mean something in the context of Russian missile program, or is it just a random name? It sounds like something a Russian grandpa would call his little grand daughter. “Come here, my cute little Oreshnik!”… Forget I said that.
@ PavewayIV | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 333
Putin’s words, from karl’s excellent translation:
Our rocket men called it “Hazel” [орешник].
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/putin-announces-use-of-oreshnik
hazel is the color of my true love’s eyes… (forget I sung that)
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 21 2024 22:44 utc | 346
After all there is talk of “new physical principles” from the Russians.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 21 2024 17:29 utc |
In 2018, Putin spoke of developments on the fringes of physics…
Posted by: Larsbo | Nov 21 2024 17:40 utc | 163
Pure Speculation: A clue may be the use of the word Zircon for one of the weapons systems, and their high powered lasers. Flame front propagation must have some overlap with ionization. One of their torpedoes use a jet nozzle at the tip to reduce water friction to achieve incredible underwater speeds. Air becomes more fluidic at high speeds. Just an amateur postulating.
Posted by: jopalolive | Nov 21 2024 22:45 utc | 347
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 339
Cute name indeed with the irony that its first flight was to destroy the plant where the Satans -SS18- were built, the biggest and most feared cold war missile.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 340
Musical stuff from the SMO, not as good looking as the girls you posted on the Saur Mogila monument.
https://vk.com/video87659876_456239142?ref_domain=yastatic.net
Posted by: Paco | Nov 21 2024 22:47 utc | 348
He didn’t do Gaetz much a favor, wonder if he was informed he’d be red meat, really fucked up his life. Maybe he’ll be made ambassador to Thailand in recompense.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2024 22:24 utc | 336
Gaetz is basically being screwed for being a Floridian. Long, long ago, I went to high school in Florida in a college town. In theory, the age of consent was 18. De facto, the age of consent was 16. “Close in Age” exemptions exist, allowing minors aged 16 or 17 to engage in sexual intercourse with a partner no older than age 23. What this means is the high school students aged 16 and 17 (especially girls, but not only) were going to university parties and getting it on. Maybe the college student was a Med, Business, or Law grad student, or even a faculty member, and older than 23, nobody ever asked or cared. It must have happened somewhere, sometime, but even 50 years ago, I never heard of anyone being prosecuted in Florida for having consensual sex with someone 16 or 17. It is warm most of the time, we were fit and walking around half naked, it was a very sexy environment and culture.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 22:50 utc | 349
Sure. However, if you have some type of heat shield- likely ablative and relatively cheap, it only needs to work once 🙂 and you don’t biff the math on where and how you return- no prob bob.
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 22:41 utc | 344
They dont have it. That is one of many reasons USA does not have hypersonic missiles.
materials science at this level is difficult, to say the least. Cant make it with computer simulation or AI, cant test it in a wind tunnel. It’s very complex, and you are just poo pooing it away by using dismissive words like “simply” and “likely”.
Not to mention the targeting and guidance issues. kinetic weapons have to be way more precise than nukes.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:52 utc | 350
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 20:28 utc | 263
Name checks out. Let us know when you’ve assembled your starship, Captain Kirk.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Nov 21 2024 22:52 utc | 351
This conflict is draining human resources and will.
The end is near: by May – June is over. Not by T, but V.
The Ukrainians has options: die in their nationalist culture and go far away, repent and be Russians with the due control over years to come, or be, like nazis, destroyed in the 4 oblasts.
Bye
Posted by: Toast | Nov 21 2024 22:55 utc | 352
@ Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 20:28 utc | 263
Thank you for broaching the topic. IMHO it’s an extremely concerning asymmetrical advantage that risks destabilizing global security. Also, I’ve wondered whether planners chose to underinvest in some other technologies because they believe in leveraging space.
Posted by: I forgot | Nov 21 2024 23:00 utc | 353
Apparently Hazel wood was used to make a traditional Russian club or cudgel. So, an appropriate name for such a weapon, no?
Personally, by the look of the msm the North American PTB have yet to grasp the implications of this.
The Imperial ‘Humpty Dumpty had a great fall’ etc…
Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 21 2024 23:02 utc | 354
What a dope. He is either the world’s largest p***y, or blackmailed/threatened somehow, or a traitor.
Posted by: ivanislav | Nov 21 2024 18:18 utc | 187
Shadowbanned returns
Posted by: jopalolive | Nov 21 2024 23:02 utc | 355
Re the name “Hazel” or “Oreshnik”
Scott Ritter @ Judge Napolitano today mentioned that Hazel refers to a traditional (which century?) method of discipline: the use of a Hazel nut tree switch on people who indulge in recurrent moronic behaviours. Don’t know if true.
Posted by: suzan | Nov 21 2024 23:03 utc | 356
Ok my fellow brits who wants to volanteer to become western cannon fodder.
Mmmm whats not to like…. nice cold muddy trench, in midwinter.
Sitting duck whilst watching ya mates blown to bits with drones and every thing else.
One way ticket.
Roll up roll up lemmings.
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 21 2024 22:22 utc | 334
Well, they might think that they have a choice… but they do not.
The same was told about UKR people … why do they fight?
1) Brainwashing
2) No choice:
A)I either kill you and your family on the spot (wife, kids, rape daughter and them kill her in front of you …
B) OR you go to front and maybe maybe you survive
BUT even if you DIE we do not kill/rape your family today …
Your choice is … eh?
Please do not start with you have weapons, they have tanks and 100 people if needed
Please do not start with you leave the country, the border will be closed before you have a chance
Posted by: bog | Nov 21 2024 23:04 utc | 357
Daily DS map update. (You know you look forward to reading this!)
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/46.7323310/36.6503906
Overall: RFA took 33.8 kmsq. Very strong day. Compared to OCT pace of 17/day average, that is almost exactly double.
S to N:
1. 15.0 (!) kmsq NW of Zolata Nyva. Velyka Novasilka sector. Mostly conversion of gray zone (i.e. probably an advance from few days ago, now confirmed).
2. 1.5 kmsq NW of Trudove. Vuhledar front. Uspenivka (town and road crossing) is under threat.
3. 6.6 kmsq N of Antonivka. S Kurakhove front. Field/gray/pocket taking.
4. 0.9 kmsq in Dalnie, including finishing town capture. S Kurakhove front.
5. 2.4 kmsq in fields E of Khurakove. Gray conversion. Big pocket. More to come.
6. 1.0 kmsq in Khurakove. Mostly water. I don’t mind crediting the territory…it all counts. Just FYI.
7. 0.7 kmsq on the “Pokrovsk railroad”. NE of Pysynka and SW of Petrivka.
8. 2.3 kmsq NE of Hryhorivka or NW of Selydove. Pokrovsk front.
9. 0.4 kmsq in Toretsk.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 21 2024 23:06 utc | 358
@ UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 332
> also, about half my posts never make it….
Well, keep trying — I enjoy reading your contributions!
Hope you draft in a separate editor before posting.
Posted by: I forgot | Nov 21 2024 23:10 utc | 359
Hazel’s debutante party went swimmingly, to judge from the jaw-dropping videos. Everything in sixes: six strike-pulses in six seconds, with each pulse lighting up at least half a dozen ground targets. With the overcast, there’s no visible approach, just bright discharges from the clouds: one, two, three, four, five, six — all these lights from just one missile! Putin solemnly pledges to warn civilians in time to evacuate, before the next such battlefield test. There’s absolutely no possibility of air defense against mach 10 thunderbolts, certainly none possessed by NATO.
Here comes something dropping at 300 meters per second. You can try to stop it, but think fast! The Hazel videos are such a shock, there might even be hope this form of communication can penetrate the carapace of western vanity. I can dream, can’t I?
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Nov 21 2024 23:13 utc | 360
Bog @ 358
Thanks for the harsh reality contained in your comment.
We all need to face the truth now.
Cheers
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 21 2024 23:15 utc | 361
@ UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:52 utc | 351
They dont have it. That is one of many reasons USA does not have hypersonic missiles.
Well, actually they do. Every spacecraft or probe that’s ever returned to earth has had some type of working heat shield. Also anything that’s ever gone to orbit has also been by requirement, hypersonic!!!
So what’s the diff? It’s all about -WHERE- in the atmosphere you’re hypersonic and how long for. In this regard you are fully correct, RF hypersonics do so at much lower altitudes and have to do so for much longer where the atmosphere is much thicker = more friction.
-However- for an object falling from space? Totally different story. Peak heating usually is somewhere around 50-60 km above the earth’s surface and then after that you’re cooling down. Yes if you have rocket booster to give some oomph to your return have to account for that, but again, solvable problem Guidance? Remember, you’re mostly ballistic, it’s all about the right initial math then a bit of error correction to make sure you fall in the right spot, just like a FAB.
Here’s the main difference-
1) Hypersonic launched from ground or air- This is a complex device made of multiple different systems that have to interact with each other perfectly. If one of them fails = whole thing is a bust. Very, very complicated and yes, RF has this symphony figured out whereas U.S does not (yet) Basically, think some form of cruise missile, or equivalent in concept.
2) Object dropped from orbit- Simple inert mass that needs just enough shielding (and shaping) to make it through re-entry and minimize air drag. About… 70? 80%? of the complexity of the item in #1 above is not needed as that was all handled by the launcher (separate vehicle fully reusable) guidance? If weapon is in a launch cradle that won’t be joining the party then that device can do most of the work on targeting and correct release. Then you just have what is basically a heat-shielded FAB that only needs to survive the stresses of re-entry long enough to make it through peak heating to then hit it’s target. Yes, there will need to be some kind of very basic error correction for minute guidance (think shielded flaps and a computer) also easily doable with today’s technology. So really it’s nothing more than a FAB dropped from a much further distance!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 23:15 utc | 362
Cute name indeed with the irony that its first flight was to destroy the plant where the Satans -SS18- were built, the biggest and most feared cold war missile.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 21 2024 22:35 utc | 340
That is the very point:
The US, the DS, the Straussians, the Khazars or whomever is behind this got Russian missiles to destroy Soviet plants: that’s some huge success!
Slavs killing slavs: how big is that? Huh?
why would they ever stop?
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 21 2024 23:17 utc | 363
Russia demonstrates a real weapon and this thread becomes obsessed with science fiction.
Posted by: a stone | Nov 21 2024 23:18 utc | 364
Hope you draft in a separate editor before posting.
Posted by: I forgot | Nov 21 2024 23:10 utc | 360
obviously i dont XD
I had written a better reply about space x and the weaponization thereof, especially regarding people’s misperceptions about distance due to driving and flying, (as opposed to walking, which can help with understanding how important accuracy is, and how hard it gets to hit accurately the further away you are).
so i reduced the retry post to “throwing shit in space”… :/
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 23:22 utc | 365
A war in Europe would be the orgasm for all the elites: let the slavs engage in a conflict with those ungrateful European countries.
Dont you think that Russia has very clear that a new conflict in Europe is mess?
Although there’s a problem between the two, they are fated to understand each other… When the malicious agent be over his influence.
The strategic point is to reduce the vision of the USA to the point of his posibilities: take care of the new Sudamérica because no walls will impide millions of people coming by a new law: the cartels gonna impose their society in the south of USA and the government gonna do nothing.
In 20 years, usa will fighting mexicas who have taking the cities. Nor Chinese who will be dumping the dollars.
Posted by: Toast | Nov 21 2024 23:22 utc | 366
Tungsten rod orbital drop weapons (Rods from God) were tested by China and found to be a dead-end. Tungsten can’t withstand the heat of re-entry well enough to make an effective impact on the surface.
Posted by: a stone | Nov 21 2024 22:03 utc | 320
That’s an easy problem to solve, put an ablative heat shield material around them, 1960s technology. After all these would be single use munitions, no expensive and fragile ceramic tiles needed.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 22:24 utc | 335
Too many really physical problems impossible to solve.
Gravity and re-entry in Earth atmosphere at very high speeds are a bitch that does no care about Start Trek and captain Kirk SF fantasies like “shields up” 😛
The Starlink satellites move a a big horizontal spped compared to Eart in order to stay in LEO. This puts a huge problem for re-entry. You need to calculate an angle in order to survive and the shields are expensive even so.
IF you just drop whatever from a LEO satellite it will disintegrate at re-entry because of physics, having both huge horizontal speed and vertical speed is double problem and NO / NO loose situation … sorry Start Trek
IF you want to simply “drop” it with zero “horizontal” speed compared to Earth surface you have to go to GEO orbit at 35.000 km.
At this distance it will take months to reach Earth if “gentle pushed down”.
IF you push harder you will move the satellite in the opposite direction, I know again physics … sorry star trek
Basically there is NO advantage in cost to move big rods in space orbit, the cost of fighting gravity is the same and Musk has no advantage here (his engines are weak)
Re-use the tube / pipe of the rocket DOES NOT reduce cost too much.
Besides the rocket sustains huge forces and heat and this put the re-used part in big danger of accidents if it is re-used.
You really do NOT want to re-use a complex device that has to resist huge forces and temperatures.
Re-use of rockets is just for PR.
the use of ICBM is more efficient
Posted by: bog | Nov 21 2024 23:26 utc | 367
@ Lightyearsfromhome, lol.
@ Jo, beat me to it.
No need to decapitate political leadership. See Hitler, Musolini and Yamashita’s end stories.
Factory owners producing weapons will be shitting themselves.
Poland and other minions are now in a similar situation. Biden must be please he is no longer the only leader to do it.
Civilians will get warning, soldiers not so much. There will be a huge wave of resignations soon. See IOF and US navy after combat duties.
Now, will President Putin please announce deployment of said missiles to Oran and Syria.
Posted by: Suresh | Nov 21 2024 23:26 utc | 368
@ UWDude | Nov 21 2024 22:52 utc | 351
They dont have it. That is one of many reasons USA does not have hypersonic missiles.
Well, actually they do. Every spacecraft or probe that’s ever returned to earth has had some type of working heat shield. Also anything that’s ever gone to orbit has also been by requirement, hypersonic!!!
Not really no… space ship re entry is at a very special angle exactly in order to survive an it is adjusted helped by engines and computers.
rods have no chance to do that
Posted by: bog | Nov 21 2024 23:31 utc | 369
Meh, only the US has the right to cause big explosions; anyone else doing it is a breach of copyright…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 21 2024 23:31 utc | 370
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 21 2024 15:19 utc | 95
Incredible video
Missiles are hitting the Dnieper again (Dnepropetrovsk)
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/134718
This is an old video. I downloaded it from a TG channel when I first saw it. That was 8/16/2023. Don’t recall where the attack took place.
Posted by: JK in Glendale | Nov 21 2024 23:34 utc | 371
RUAF is continuing to envelope Velyka Novosilka. AFU is unable to offer resistance, especially in context of Uspenovka and Kurakhove.
Notice that after Velyka Novosilka the road is open to Bogatyr, another ‘fortress’ west of Kurakhove. So basically you could argue Velyka Novosilka, Bogatyr and Kurakhove equal collapse of entire line south/south-east of Zaporozhye, or south of Pokrovsk.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 21 2024 23:44 utc | 372
Starting in 1961 with Yuri Gagarin until the 2003 Columbia – missing ceramic tiles – reentry disaster, there were 42 years where crewed capsules and probes (including film canisters from early spy satellites) were returned from orbit without burning up.
Yes, one early Soviet capsule landed hard due to parachute failure and the cosmonaut died. Another Soviet capsule landed well but the cosmonauts died as the hatch opened, the capsule depressurised, and they weren’t wearing spacesuits. But, neither of these events were ablative heat shield failures.
We have returned probes and samples from the moon and the asteroids, returning at greater than orbital velocity, and there has never been an ablative heat shield failure. Re-entry of whatever is early 1960s slide rule era technology.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 23:46 utc | 373
Well, actually they do. Every spacecraft or probe that’s ever returned to earth has had some type of working heat shield. Also anything that’s ever gone to orbit has also been by requirement, hypersonic!!!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Nov 21 2024 23:15 utc | 363
“hypersonic missile” in this context means a lot more than “faster than the speed of sound missile”.
Your reliance on the semantic,
coupled with your dismissiveness of the technological challenges, shows you are just starting to learn about it. That’s fine, but you should be asking questions and reading up on the topic at this stage, not making bold declarations about how easy and simple it all is.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 23:47 utc | 374
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Nov 21 2024 21:41 utc | 304
(USA can’t do hypersonics)
Thanks for the compliment, but I was half-joking when I wrote that.
Every rocket to Low Earth Orbit exceeds the low-end definition of “hypersonic” (Mach 5) by a healthy margin. Eventually.
The Yanks are probably stuck in the ‘eventually’ phase and Werner von Braun is N/A so they could be waiting for the next NASA polymath/genius to pop up.(?)
——-‐
I actually logged on to post this bit of trivia:
A few threads ago, someone posted an observation that (approx) “There are months when nothing happens and there are days when months happen.”
I’ll always recall November 20/21, 2024, as the day months happened.
The slutty, jewed-up West’s slutty jewed-up politicians will have a tough time pretending that Putin’s hypersonics aren’t a BIG problem.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Nov 21 2024 23:50 utc | 375
Galloway:
This is not an ethnic war because 2 similar genetic peoples are in a conflict and all are brothers.
The conflit is cultural: what define the Ucranian people is supremacy: they digged the Black Sea and are the descends of the vikings who founded Rus. This feeling of being the chosen sons and daughters of Valhalla is a mitology fomented by the nacis. Those feelings never existed in the XIX Century because the idea of an exclusive nation didn’t exist.
The fist question about the autonomy of Ucranie is from the 1920, after the Russian civil war.
The south brothers are idiots because they think they are special. 2 different cultures: russians are Christians ortodoxos and Ucranians of the west are supremacists fron the WII and pagans. Nothing to do with the real orcs.
Amd the future is clear: evaluation of all them, even in the families. Want to be Russian? Yes or not. Who wan’t knows where tp life.
Peroid
Posted by: Toast | Nov 21 2024 23:52 utc | 376
Re-entry of whatever is early 1960s slide rule era technology.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 21 2024 23:46 utc | 374
now make them avoid shoot down at hypersonic speeds to avoid 2020’s anti-aircraft AI assisted technology, all the while attempting to come within 20m of target.
Two completely different challenges.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 23:52 utc | 377
@331
You can see the marks of the rovers from independent sources.
What “sources”? It’s been 50+ years now. Why haven’t they been back?
With regards to @359
“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts for support rather than illumination.”
Posted by: skull 💀 | Nov 22 2024 0:09 utc | 378
now make them avoid shoot down at hypersonic speeds to avoid 2020’s anti-aircraft AI assisted technology, all the while attempting to come within 20m of target.
Two completely different challenges.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 21 2024 23:52 utc | 378
I’m pretty sure that people who can twice soft land the Starship (test flights 5 & 6) on an exact GPS coordinate – with the burden of designing for reusability – can do the other things. The US has had MIRVs since the Minuteman III over half a century ago. Air defence isn’t the problem either as kinetic loitering orbital munitions would, like FAB glide bombs, be too cheap and numerous to intercept with missiles.
The main vulnerability would be the ground infrastructure. How does one protect Florida, Texas, and California launch sites from Tsirkons fired from submarines? Actually, THIS is the problem the west has never even seriously attempted to solve and I have no confidence that they could if they did try. For this reason alone, the best strategy for the rest of the world might be to allow the US to waste what remains of their resources on their ‘Space Force’ concepts.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 22 2024 0:16 utc | 379
Since Joe Biden is now mentally incapacitated in detail…….the current crisis is being fueled by input and control from Toni Blinken-sky and his boss and mentor Georgiev Soros and their fellow uniccs (who are the real power and cash behind Volo and his corrupt neo-nazi minions).
So when will we see the Blinken-ski and Soros kids and grandkids enlist in the UAF forces, get to Kieve, draw their AK’s, boots, helmut, first aid kits, vest, extra ammo, rations, helmut, fatigues, and get out there with their fellow nazis and start exchanging live fire on the two way rifle range in the Donbassssss………????
No they want US and UK and French families to donate their children in this useful waste of humanity…….
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 22 2024 0:27 utc | 380
PavewayIV | Nov 21 2024 22:20 utc | 333–
Thanks very much for your replies, and to Aleph for answering your question citing my translation. One of the issues brought up in commentary at my substack article is the actual meaning of Putin’s decision to warn people. The Kremlin has published the official English translation of Putin’s speech, and here’s that specific paragraph:
“It goes without saying that when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit by systems such as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians and citizens of friendly countries residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly, without fear of counter-moves coming from the enemy, who will also be receiving this information.” [My Emphasis]
Martyanov chatted with Nima about this event and most here got everything correct.
You can see the marks of the rovers from independent sources.
What “sources”? It’s been 50+ years now. Why haven’t they been back?
Posted by: skull 💀 | Nov 22 2024 0:09 utc | 379
YES, BRICS nations included, post Apollo: Soviet probes Luna 20 (1972) and Luna 24 (1976) orbited the moon before landing, picking up samples, and returning them to Earth. Russian Probe Luna 25 orbited the moon briefly last year before crash landing. India’s Chandrayaan-1 (2008) orbited for nearly a year, Chandrayaan-2 (2019) is still in lunar orbit and active. China’s Chang’e 1 orbiter (2007) scanned the entire Moon in unprecedented detail. Chang’e 2 orbiter (2010) mapped the Moon in even greater detail.
Anyway, non-Western lunar orbiters have mapped the entire moon in fine detail and have produced pictures of not only the 6 Apollo landing sites but also have been able to locate the crash sites of some small robotic probes that crash landed.
Posted by: Drifter | Nov 22 2024 0:45 utc | 382