Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 10, 2024
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-269

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

> Amid a breakdown of trust between society, the army and the political leadership, Ukraine is struggling to replace battlefield losses with conscription, barely hitting two-thirds of its target. Russia, meanwhile, is replacing its losses by recruitment with lucrative contracts, without needing to revert to mass mobilisation. A senior Ukrainian military commander admits that there has been a collapse in morale in some of the worst sections of the front. A source in the general staff suggests that nearly a fifth of soldiers have gone AWOL from their positions. <


Other issues:


Valdai:

Multipolarity:

Aukus:

Boeing's moves towards a bailout:

Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) thread …

Comments

Thank you malenkov🥰

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 12 2024 19:44 utc | 201

It is one of the main reasons why the economics profession is a complete joke. Not a science.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 12 2024 19:30 utc | 199
You are aware that there are models for monopoly, oligopoly and monopolistic competition?
On more “ideological” components of economics you do have plenty of thesis and an-thesis but little syntheses, but that’s another problem.
And plenty of solid work in econometrics.
Economists have as much mats as STEM and are not stupid. And don’t confound economists with people with “business/management” degrees (though it’s true that very few jobs for economist are available and most end up doing “business/management”, or whatever they fancy)
Remember economy was political economics with heavy focus on history, most have far more tools than most to have a privileged view of current situation.

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 12 2024 19:55 utc | 202

(Y) reaches its upper limit once full employment is reached and within the economy full employment is always maintained since the labour market is assumed to be in equilibrium at all times.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 12 2024 19:30 utc | 199
“Full employment” is not what a normal english speaking person might think it means.
The belief is that some minimal level of unemployment is needed to stabilize prices.
They believe too much employment pushes up prices by compelling employers to compete for workers – we can’t have that in a free market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU

Posted by: jinn | Nov 12 2024 20:20 utc | 203

Boris Johnson
“UK may have to provide troops to Kiev if US cuts aid”
https://www.rt.com/russia/607547-uk-ukraine-trump-troops/
I imagine he sees himself up front !

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 12 2024 21:26 utc | 204

IMO the Trébuchet is a much under-utilized instrument, which would be perfect for relocating people where they should be !

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 12 2024 21:28 utc | 205

@ Physics aficionados
What is the biggest Trébuchet one could make, and how far could it throw a person ?

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 12 2024 21:33 utc | 206

They believe too much employment pushes up prices by compelling employers to compete for workers – we can’t have that in a free market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU
Posted by: jinn | Nov 12 2024 20:20 utc | 203
That’s why I mentioned the problem of monopsony, control of purchase (most probably closer to the monopolistic competition) as a problem on labor and wages.

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 12 2024 22:27 utc | 207

steven t johnson | Nov 12 2024 18:04 utc | 195
my posting was not properly edited, “my bad”. I broke my own golden rule. And it should have been …’non est in intellectu’ ( not ‘intelectu’).
I take your reply in good cheer.

Posted by: fanto | Nov 12 2024 22:36 utc | 208

Mike Waltz seems to be officially in.
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/11/12/dc/trump-names-floridas-rep-mike-waltz-as-national-security-adviser/
And Steve Witkoff special envoy to the ME, not to say he has any (fore)skin in the game…

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 12 2024 23:03 utc | 209

Wrong thread, sorry

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 12 2024 23:04 utc | 210

It is one of the main reasons why the economics profession is a complete joke. Not a science.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 12 2024 19:30 utc | 199
______
Would that include disciples of the Magic Money Tree cult?

Posted by: malenkov | Nov 12 2024 23:43 utc | 211

Halloween is gone.
Mariah carey is out of her coffin and her sound screeches around the world.
Meanwhile, near the arctic circle, Santa is loading his sled with presents for all the children in the world that are constantly asking him for a X-mas surprise.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/11/12/u-s-and-west-see-loading-of-russias-bulava-nuclear-slbm/
God bless them all 😀

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 13 2024 0:00 utc | 212

David Vine
2012
Tthe trillion dollars outfit that dont do audit,

Ever the fool and armed only with the power of searchable PDFs, I nonetheless plunged into the bizarro world of Pentagon accounting, where ledgers are sometimes still handwritten and $1 billion can be a rounding error

enuff said.
Exhibit A
Vicenza

Posted by: denk | Nov 13 2024 3:39 utc | 213

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 12 2024 15:19 utc | 188
Thanks for your generous response, persiflo. I will reflect upon what you say; thanks for the link.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 4:14 utc | 214

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 12 2024 15:19 utc | 188
Well, for now, persiflo, I cannot disagree with you about Aristotle because I don’t have the ability to do so. But I thank you, because you sent me back to a site that I enjoy because I can understand it (which sadly I don’t as far as Aristotle is concerned). That site is Bertrand Suzanne’s — https//www.plato-dialogues.org and here is some of what he has to say about the matter:

…I cannot admit the assumption that the simplistic theory that Aristotle criticizes as Plato’s so called “theory of forms” was actually what Plato held, and that Aristotle was better at interpreting Plato than Plato himself, just because he was posterior to him and that, by the “evolutionist” token, posterior is of necessity better (in fact, I hold to the contrary that Plato was much better than Aristotle at understanding other’s theories from the inside and criticizing them on their own premises, that he exercised this gift not only on his predecessors, but on his pupils too, and on Aristotle himself as well, much better than Aristotle did against him, and it is no coincidence if the pale interlocutor of Parmenides in the dialogue that bears his name is another Aristotle, historical as he may be)…

Suzanne’s objection, as I understand it is that Plato encourages people to think for themselves, that he doesn’t put forward his own theories in the direct manner which Aristotle uses in his own writings. But I will return to the Parmenides at some point and see if I still agree with Suzanne – – right now my garden needs a cleanup.
I tried to show in my canary parable that I get lost in metaphysical abstractions. The interplay between the characters of Plato’s dialogues is for me a concreteness I can understand better than logic: it leaves much to the reader to wonder about as to how we different souls from different times and spaces can, like the slave boy (and Meno himself), agree.
I will leave it at that. I agree with waynorinorway: brevity is best here. I think clarity helps as well!

Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 5:11 utc | 215

Sorry, I forgot to put in the colon : after https on the Plato site.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 5:13 utc | 216

I will leave it at that. I agree with waynorinorway: brevity is best here. I think clarity helps as well!
Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 5:11 utc | 215
Thanks for that juliania. I’d like to be as wise as you are if and when
I get to be your age. But it’s a daunting wish as I only have a a few years
to go to get there and you keep raising the bar. I’ll keep chasin’ tho.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 13 2024 5:24 utc | 217

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 13 2024 5:24 utc | 217
Thanks for the late night chuckle, wayorinorway. I’ve been pretty foolish most of my life, too late to change now.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 5:32 utc | 218

Below is a link to a cringe worthy posting at Xinhuanet about the evolving products and services….they are following in empire steps too closely with products like pets, camping, blind boxes and nostalgia-driven products…..I am ok with camping but the others seem like blatant consumerism mostly seen in West.
https://english.news.cn/20241112/f4335b851b574daf9e05366b12021eef/c.html
Economic Watch: Rise of “emotional economy” reflects new trends, dynamics in China’s consumption
I am just an old man not wanting our species to continue worthless consumption of our planet to feed greed and avarice…..and expect China, given its history, to know better than to be led by marketing/sales types.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 13 2024 5:53 utc | 219

I’ve been pretty foolish most of my life, too late to change now.
Posted by: juliania | Nov 13 2024 5:32 utc | 218
To quote steven t., “Me too”:-)
But that’s a good thing imo, since in these interesting and crazy times
we can laugh at ourselves. And if Reader’s Digest ever said anything true
it was that ‘laughter is the best medicine’. I hope Patroklos is reading…

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 13 2024 6:02 utc | 220

Don Bacon @163:”. . with rising homeliness in USA. . ..”

“A problem I was stunned to notice when I mistakenly returned from expat life. Where was beauty? Has it gone underground? And where did all of these shambling wildebeests come from?…
…Perhaps the Imperial core being submerged in homeliness is, like the extinction of competence, a symptom of the death of Empire?”

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 12 2024 11:02 utc | 183
Jimmy Carter wanted to get non violent folks in mental institutions into halfway houses, so they could be integrated back into society. Reagan released them, but with no halfway houses. That was the first explosion. However, between Reagan’s neo liberal policies and the repeal of the Glass Steagall act, which foretold the 2008 meltdown and Obama’s broken promises by backing the crooked banksters, anyone wanting to take out a Hecm loan trying to earn a few bucks on the equity on their homes, have discovered they not only pay for an extremely expensive insurance policy, but said policy protects the lender, not them and the lender can literally foreclose on the home for pennies on the dollar. A scam our government fully supports.
Symptom of the death of an empire? We certainly seem to be emulating Rome, right up to the end, aren’t we? Just a whole lot quicker. Even the brutish British’s empire lasted longer than this debacle, eh?

Posted by: aye, myself & me | Nov 13 2024 6:27 utc | 221

juliania, behind my link is not just a few lines of text with an obscure claim, but a full book you can download (by clicking on the headline); it’s free, it’s in english, and it’s hands down the best book that I have ever read. I have offered it to you about thirty times now, and each time you come back with precisely the understanding of Aristotle that I had originally challenged, without ever reading it. For the sake of general brevity and everyone’s nerves, either do yourself a favor today and read the first three pages of it, which should suffice to get you hooked, or we need to declare Aristotle our personal anathema.
That said, it is to your great honour that you decline the unmoved mover notion with the kind of reason you gave. It reminds me of Wadah, who as a muslim said once, ‘I know that God wants us to shine for each other’ – he was about to sell me some garb of his – ‘and I don’t care what’s in the book on that, I know Him, so I know it better!’ That’s the stuff prophets do.

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 13 2024 6:29 utc | 222

psychohistorian @219:
lol!, You ol` crank! Isn’t it nice for the Chinese that they can now afford to look at dogs as more than food, and cats as more than self-propelled disposable rat traps? Moreover, this shift to cheap plush toys and kitsch comes as a reaction to/rejection of expensive status symbol consumption (Louis Vuitton, BMW, Apple), indicating many Chinese feel a lessened need to boost their perceived status and self-esteem with conspicuous brand logos. Try and convince me that ain’t a good thing!
Most important to me in that article was confirmation of something I saw starting several years ago, around the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Doubtless it had been gaining momentum outside my rather crude abilities to perceive for some time prior, but around then I noticed the rise of domestic “cultural tourism” in China.
As an aside, the Japanese have turned domestic “cultural tourism” into a huge, but massively distributed/dispersed, industry. Every single city, town, village, and even every neighborhood within them has some local culinary, snack, or beverage specialties, as well as local attractions complete with either millennia old histories and mythologies or more recent kitsch appeal. You can spend a lifetime exploring Japan’s domestic tourist destinations and never see then all.
Aside from the aside: There was a prolonged period in Japan’s history where travel was forbidden for the plebes, with the sole exception of for religious observances. As a result, the clever Japanese developed an insane number of shrines and temples all across the country that regular folk just had to make pilgrimages to in order to “please the gods”. As well, every area developed raucous festivals for the local/regional gods that required vast quantities of booze (Japanese gods are apparently all alcoholics). Some of Japan’s oldest books were little more than travel guides to these various notionally “religious” destinations, and devoted far more text to rating restaurants and inns along the routes and detailing the local specialties to be found in the hundreds of shops lining the approaches to major shrines. Ancient tourist traps, I guess, complete with snack vendors, street entertainers, and kitschy souvenir shops.
Of course, not all of the “religious” destinations were such loud and crowded affairs. Some shrines are to be found in remote locations and mountaintops for the more devoted camping/mountaineering hobbyists religious pilgrims.
I digress. The point is that I think that domestic “cultural tourism” is a really good thing. In particular, China has the deepest well of history, mythology and culinary diversity in the world with which to turn every single burg, village, and crossroads into a destination. A side effect of doing this beyond economic stimulation at the local level, of course, is that almost the entire population gets engaged in showing off their little corner of the country. Litter is cleaned up; graffiti, except where it has historical/cultural significance, is erased; pathways, sidewalks and streets are repaired and maintained. When I first went to China in the last century, the place stank and was covered with garbage, like large portions of Latin America unfortunately still are today. Since then, China has leapfrogged most of the world and is today rapidly approaching the Japanese benchmark in delightfully charming tourability. The fact that most of the tourists doing the exploring in China are Chinese, and who could go to San Francisco if they really wanted, should tell people a lot about how China has changed, and for the better I would say.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2024 13:51 utc | 223

aye, myself & me @221: “Symptom of the death of an empire? We certainly seem to be emulating Rome, right up to the end, aren’t we? Just a whole lot quicker. Even the brutish British’s empire lasted longer than this debacle, eh?”
True, but unlike the Brutish, American working class people never wanted an empire. As much as the Brutish nurture the delusion they still have an empire, most Americans try to cultivate the delusion that they don’t have one.
Strange, and maybe that is contributing to the rapid decline of the Empire of Lies.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2024 14:02 utc | 224

Turkish Trade Minister confirms official BRICS+ partnership offer. NATO Turkiye’s balancing act continues.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 13 2024 16:27 utc | 225

Just a note in passing that the God Of Mammon cult has brought the global price of gold down about $200/oz in the past two weeks…..where are the shorts to do that coming from and what happens when music stops?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 13 2024 20:29 utc | 226

Well the Novichok much delayed inquests – inquiry – continues unreported. What with all the genocide and elections and ukropian shit… a quick look.
https://johnhelmer.org/british-chemical-warfare-agent-reveals-novichok-was-not-detected-in-dawn-sturgess-charles-rowley-at-first-second-try-but-there-was-cocaine/
cocaine/
‘The Porton Down toxicology records remain undisclosed at the hearings. ‘

‘In a sentence Cockroft had introduced the possibility that the Skripals had been attacked by carfentanyl in an attempt to kill them. Left unsaid was that if true, the assassins weren’t – cannot have been — Russians spraying Novichok as Prime Minister Theresa May (lead image) announced in the House of Commons on March 12, 2018.’
Worms. Can. Exploding.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 13 2024 20:47 utc | 227

More .
‘by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
Forcing Sergei and Yulia Skripal into artificial coma, intubating them so that they could not speak, and barring them from public testimony are now revealed in the Novichok show trial under way in London.
Resuscitating Dawn Sturgess from cardiac arrest and brain death in order to make her a victim of a Novichok attack delivered by a perfume atomiser, when the laboratory evidence now shows Sturgess had consumed a lethal cocktail of cocaine and fentanyl – this too is revealed in the hearings directed by former judge Anthony Hughes, Lord Hughes of Ombersley (lead image, left).
Listen to the one-hour discussion just recorded and broadcast from Victoria, British Columbia. Chris Cook asks the questions. ‘
https://johnhelmer.org/gorilla-radio-turns-the-hughes-inquiry-upside-down-for-the-truth-about-novichok/
Where is the mainstream media reporting this? 😂

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 13 2024 20:58 utc | 228

MOATS, Ep 395, with George Galloway
https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1856772557179162963
“The new normal.”
Prof Seyyed Marandi, Bryce Green.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 14 2024 9:08 utc | 229

These data points are all that matters
US 3-MO
4,566
US 2-YR
4,347
US 5-YR
4,317
US 10-YR
4,429
US 30-YR
4,573
Rolling over Federal Debt from paying 1% to now paying 4% interest is happening right now. As the interest burden continues to skyrocket, Lenders will require ever higher interest to cover increased risk.
It’s a A vicious or virtuous circle depending on one‘s perspective.
Nope, not true at all.
Here:
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/01/the-permanent-floor-2004.html#more-4529
And Here
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/01/understanding-the-permanent-floor-an-important-inconsistency-in-neoclassical-monetary-economics.html#more-4513
Read those 2 links so you can finally understand how they hit their overnight interest rate. What the interbank market is all about. Why they actually actually buy and sell bonds for in the first place.
Jeremy you should study this. So when you are asked if the US issues its own currency why does it borrow ?
Then you will be able to finally answer that question.
Hint: (As I enjoy helping people.)
Budget Deficits put downward pressure on the overnight interest rate. The FED has a duty to hit the overnight interest rate.
What those 2 links show is how the FED hits that overnight target. Either by using a floor system or by paying interest on reserve balances.
Hope this helps. Time to drop the ideology and actually learn What takes place.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 12:40 utc | 230

If the FED did nothing then the budget deficit would drive the overnight interest rate to zero.
All reserve balances held by the banks have to add up to zero at the end of each day.
Thus, when some banks are short reserves at the end of the working day and some banks have too many reserves at the end of the day. There’s an imbalance.
So they buy and sell reserves between themselves to balance things out. If the FED still can’t hit its overnight interest rate then it steps in to make sure it can every night of the week.
Read those 2 links above that shows how they do it.
The quantity of currency circulating—“dead presidents”—can never be exogenously controlled in a world in which we have banks.
That costlessly convert currency to deposits, savings, and so forth, effectively taking the currency out of circulation, which banks then convert to reserve balances. There is no hot potato effect for currency in the real world.
What neoclassicals here can’t seem to accept is what Post Keynesians have known for decades and some New York Fed researchers explained in crystal clear language a few years ago, namely that “the cost of reserves, both intraday and overnight, are policy variables.
Consequently, a market for reserves does not play the traditional role of information aggregation and price discovery.” The Fed simply must set a price—it cannot do otherwise. Not setting a price of reserves when it attempts to expand the monetary base simply means setting the price of reserves at zero.
Now, what the FED also did during 2021 was introduce an overnight reverse repo facility.
The usual idiots on social media had no idea what was going on and freaked out as usual promising a storm when the sun was shining outside. They don’t even understand what we have never mind what the overnight reverse repo facility was all about.
What it was all about was this. QE was swapping treasuries out of the system and replacing them with reserves.
This was hampering commercial banks from making loans. Due to reserve ratios and leveraging ratios brought in by BASEL regulations.
So to help the commercial banks they introduced the overnight reverse repo facility. To allow them to remove reserves from their balance sheets.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:06 utc | 231

This was hampering commercial banks from making loans.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:06 utc | 231

An excess inventory of bad loans is what is hampering commercial banks from making new ones.
Risk matters.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 14 2024 13:11 utc | 232

Finally…
To stop fools who have no idea how any of this works because they have never looked at the mechanics of it once in their lives. Point at the 10 year yield every 5 mins as if the US is in the Eurozone filled with bond vigilantes.
These people need to educate themselves and step away from the crack pipe of ideological drivel. Learn how it all works in the real world.
There is no better place on the planet than this 5 part series to learn it all. Written 12 years ago.
Functional Finance and the Debt Ratio
Here:
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/12/functional-finance-and-the-debt-ratio-part-i.html#more-4121
Enjoy. Finally at last you will actually understood what happens under the hood at the FED.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:14 utc | 233

There is no better place on the planet than this 5 part series from 12 years ago. If you really want to learn FED operations.
Here:
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/12/functional-finance-and-the-debt-ratio-part-i.html#more-4121

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:26 utc | 234

An excess inventory of bad loans is what is hampering commercial banks from making new ones.
Risk matters.
Posted by: too scents | Nov 14 2024 13:11 utc | 232
And reserve and liquidity ratios introduced by BASEL.
We have already solved the problem too scents. Months ago.
The New Monetary Policy: Reimagining Demand Management and Price Stability in the 21st Century.
Here:
https://www.crisesnotes.com/new-report-monetary-policy-without-interest-rate-hikes/
Why ?
Because we have the accurate description of how things work in the real world. We are a decade ahead of everyone else in thinking about this issue.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:35 utc | 235

Posted by: too scents | Nov 14 2024 13:11 utc | 232
You guys point at things we fully understood 35 years ago. While you point at things we have already fixed it.
We just need the right people in charge. Free from ideological drivel. Who fully understand the mechanics and what’s actually under the hood.
The massive problem in society today is we have people who have never understood it. Use gold standard fixed exchange rate theories while discussing free floating fiat curencies. They think everywhere is like the Eurozone. Therefore, They can’t fix anything they just make it worse.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:43 utc | 236

Free from ideological drivel.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 13:43 utc | 236

The world is finite yet desire in infinite. How do you propose to address the mismatch?
Tell us your allocation scheme if you can in 3 sentences or less.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 14 2024 14:21 utc | 237

Quality of borrower regulation, quality of sector regulation, quality of action regulation. Direct quantitative aka credit ceilings.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 17:55 utc | 238

Posted by: too scents | Nov 14 2024 14:21 utc | 237
Quality of Borrower:
Set standards of the financial health of entities which banks can extend credit. For example the quality of collateral the borrower has to offer.
Quality of Sector:
Set standards based on macroeconomic judgements about future adverse shifts in an industry or the economic desirability of extending credit in that sector. For example restricting credit to the fossil fuel industry.
Quality of activity:
Set standards on the activity the borrower intends to finance with credit.For example restricting credit used for forming monopolies. For mergers and accusation that increase prices.
Direct quantitative:
Limiting the $ value of deposits originated by banks. Either in absolute terms or relative to credit outstanding. To prevent regulation avoidance via the selling of loans.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 18:11 utc | 239

It is all explained in… The report above.
The New Monetary Policy: Reimagining Demand Management and Price Stability in the 21st Century.
And so much more.
Also, so More of what Japan is doing. As we are all going to be facing this problem soon enough.understanding demographic trends
Here:
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=62072

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Nov 14 2024 18:19 utc | 240