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Elections Have Consequences – We Just Don’t Know Which
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is selecting a number of hawkish people to fill his cabinet.
There are currently a lot of hot takes what these appointees will do.
- Marco Rubio, the likely Secretary of State, may want to launch a new coup in Venezuela.
- Michael Waltz, the potential national security advisor, is anti-Russian and anti-China.
- Elise Stefanik, a Zionist, will serve as the Israel's second ambassador to the United Nations.
If there were no limits either of these people would launch new wars.
That Trump is selecting rightwing nuts is not unexpected. He needs their backing to push things through.
But the fact that Trump is selecting these people does not mean that he will listen to them or follow their advice. His first term demonstrated that the people he selects often do not last. There is thus no reason to despair over this or that bonehead selection.
There are also objective reason why policies Trump or his acolytes might want to pursue might well be impossible. To lower taxes while the budget deficit is at a record and interest rates are high is not really doable. To push Ukraine towards a victory will fail due to facts on the ground. Any itch to attack Iran carries a high risk of a military defeat.
We will have to wait for the administrations real policy decisions to anticipate where it will go. A good sign will be when Trump succeeds in implementing policies that the hawks he has chosen oppose.
I am not really optimistic about that. My earlier prediction still holds:
[Trump] had previously chosen people who were opposing and sabotaging his policies. He lacked the authority and/or will to rein them in. I do not believe that he has learned from it.
But maybe he did learn from it. I for one will try to stay objective and to give him a chance.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 22:01 utc | 550
I lived through that ‘seven minutes to live, if you hear the sirens’ on both sides of the Curtain and the everyday fear in the West was far more palpable than the East. Whether that was because of better psyops on the former’s part or a genuine fear of aggression is moot, but I do think the Trump is mad and will start a war is a DS op, because it flies against reality. I’m partial to the Pilsner Urquell or Budweiser Budvar, by the way, or tins of Canagan!!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 22:15 utc | 553
I think my analysis, and others, is based on the impact of tradition, the Chinese do not have any real modern naval experience (armed junks v Admiral Spruance does not count) so the institutional memory of the the USN and the PLAN are vastly different. These soft factors are easily overlooked by the hard ones, as they are harder to quantify, but often turn out to be the key reasons for victory or defeat. This is why the three Obama terms were so damaging to the US military as they built upon the Clinton era of socially engineering the military so that it was representative of their progressive vision.
In naval war the USN has a large advantage sub-surface, which would be decisive, whilst her ELR missile capabilities are increasing to match future threats, whilst threatening Chinese attempts to negate the carrier mismatch. All the talk of the obsolescence of carriers, by the open source inter-web mavens, ignores the fact that the USN is asking and beginning to answer the same questions. It also ignores the timeline of such comments, which mysteriously spiked after China failed to develop the carrier fleet she’d boasted she could, by indigenous and hand me down purchases. Suddenly carriers bad, ASM’s and artificial bastion islands good. In fact, one could argue that drones have given carriers a new lease of life, as their air-ops can be revolutionised and enhanced.
Bottom line, I’ll think better of their capabilities if the PLAN save one of their ships from sinking, conversely I think the USN’s capabilities have degraded because they keep on having to do just that. Still, over 100 years of experience versus some 30 is the real game-changer IMHO.
As for the Space Race, yup and don’t forget spin-off technologies and ditto for SDI, massive investments in laser and sensor technologies, whilst also being a psyops against the Russians, win, win.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 23:27 utc | 577
Agree, also think that the straw moment was finding she’d been put on the ‘Quiet Skies’ TSA watchlist. She must have suddenly identified with all those the Obama/Biden Admin had unjustly targeted. She also drove Clinton mad because she was everything she was not, as is the case with so many of these bitter, progressive husks of humanity.
Posted by: seer | Nov 13 2024 23:42 utc | 580
The DS are a detected submarine this time, they can’t hide in the depths, torpedoing his agenda, as they did in 2016, protected by lack of public awareness, and an MSM battle group. If they shoot they’ll get a reciprocal bearing salvo back, and the battlegroups burning on the horizon or fleeing for the safety of port. They’ll bide their time until forced into action, be taken out by the Trump, or, more likely, adapt to the changed circumstances.
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 14 2024 1:23 utc | 594
Agree, Rubio’s balanced by the other picks (he’s pretty dumb in comparison as well) and an obvious votive offering to the RINO NT Senators to stop their interference in the initial life of his Administration. The greatest loser, Obama. The impact of having his already tarnished legacy dismantled publicly will go a long way to help the US heal. As I said, over a year ago, those who insist on predictions based on the US being out for the count ‘ain’t no readers of that there history.
Posted by: Suresh | Nov 14 2024 1:29 utc | 596
As for the ‘lists’, I think it will be less of the drive-by shooting, more the distinctive bulge under the coat and the, can you step into the vehicle’, somebody would like to see you’, approach.
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 14 2024 1:44 utc | 598
He has the popular vote now, and has the institutional experience, big difference to 2016. He won’t want to bruise ego’s, eg Rubio pick, because they can become legislative stay-behinds that can bleed him of precious energy and impetus (guarantee you there is a 100 day flow chart), but, in return, he will expect the two Houses to allow him to carry out his agenda, or they pay the price.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 14 2024 23:38 utc | 635
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 22:01 utc | 550
I lived through that ‘seven minutes to live, if you hear the sirens’ on both sides of the Curtain and the everyday fear in the West was far more palpable than the East. Whether that was because of better psyops on the former’s part or a genuine fear of aggression is moot, but I do think the Trump is mad and will start a war is a DS op, because it flies against reality. I’m partial to the Pilsner Urquell or Budweiser Budvar, by the way, or tins of Canagan!!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 22:15 utc | 553
I think my analysis, and others, is based on the impact of tradition, the Chinese do not have any real modern naval experience (armed junks v Admiral Spruance does not count) so the institutional memory of the the USN and the PLAN are vastly different. These soft factors are easily overlooked by the hard ones, as they are harder to quantify, but often turn out to be the key reasons for victory or defeat. This is why the three Obama terms were so damaging to the US military as they built upon the Clinton era of socially engineering the military so that it was representative of their progressive vision.
In naval war the USN has a large advantage sub-surface, which would be decisive, whilst her ELR missile capabilities are increasing to match future threats, whilst threatening Chinese attempts to negate the carrier mismatch. All the talk of the obsolescence of carriers, by the open source inter-web mavens, ignores the fact that the USN is asking and beginning to answer the same questions. It also ignores the timeline of such comments, which mysteriously spiked after China failed to develop the carrier fleet she’d boasted she could, by indigenous and hand me down purchases. Suddenly carriers bad, ASM’s and artificial bastion islands good. In fact, one could argue that drones have given carriers a new lease of life, as their air-ops can be revolutionised and enhanced.
Bottom line, I’ll think better of their capabilities if the PLAN save one of their ships from sinking, conversely I think the USN’s capabilities have degraded because they keep on having to do just that. Still, over 100 years of experience versus some 30 is the real game-changer IMHO.
As for the Space Race, yup and don’t forget spin-off technologies and ditto for SDI, massive investments in laser and sensor technologies, whilst also being a psyops against the Russians, win, win.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2024 23:27 utc | 577
Agree, also think that the straw moment was finding she’d been put on the ‘Quiet Skies’ TSA watchlist. She must have suddenly identified with all those the Obama/Biden Admin had unjustly targeted. She also drove Clinton mad because she was everything she was not, as is the case with so many of these bitter, progressive husks of humanity.
Posted by: seer | Nov 13 2024 23:42 utc | 580
The DS are a detected submarine this time, they can’t hide in the depths, torpedoing his agenda, as they did in 2016, protected by lack of public awareness, and an MSM battle group. If they shoot they’ll get a reciprocal bearing salvo back, and the battlegroups burning on the horizon or fleeing for the safety of port. They’ll bide their time until forced into action, be taken out by the Trump, or, more likely, adapt to the changed circumstances.
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 14 2024 1:23 utc | 594
Agree, Rubio’s balanced by the other picks (he’s pretty dumb in comparison as well) and an obvious votive offering to the RINO NT Senators to stop their interference in the initial life of his Administration. The greatest loser, Obama. The impact of having his already tarnished legacy dismantled publicly will go a long way to help the US heal. As I said, over a year ago, those who insist on predictions based on the US being out for the count ‘ain’t no readers of that there history.
Posted by: Suresh | Nov 14 2024 1:29 utc | 596
As for the ‘lists’, I think it will be less of the drive-by shooting, more the distinctive bulge under the coat and the, can you step into the vehicle’, somebody would like to see you’, approach.
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 14 2024 1:44 utc | 598
He has the popular vote now, and has the institutional experience, big difference to 2016. He won’t want to bruise ego’s, eg Rubio pick, because they can become legislative stay-behinds that can bleed him of precious energy and impetus (guarantee you there is a 100 day flow chart), but, in return, he will expect the two Houses to allow him to carry out his agenda, or they pay the price.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 14 2024 23:44 utc | 636
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