U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is selecting a number of hawkish people to fill his cabinet.
There are currently a lot of hot takes what these appointees will do.
- Marco Rubio, the likely Secretary of State, may want to launch a new coup in Venezuela.
- Michael Waltz, the potential national security advisor, is anti-Russian and anti-China.
- Elise Stefanik, a Zionist, will serve as the Israel's second ambassador to the United Nations.
If there were no limits either of these people would launch new wars.
That Trump is selecting rightwing nuts is not unexpected. He needs their backing to push things through.
But the fact that Trump is selecting these people does not mean that he will listen to them or follow their advice. His first term demonstrated that the people he selects often do not last. There is thus no reason to despair over this or that bonehead selection.
There are also objective reason why policies Trump or his acolytes might want to pursue might well be impossible. To lower taxes while the budget deficit is at a record and interest rates are high is not really doable. To push Ukraine towards a victory will fail due to facts on the ground. Any itch to attack Iran carries a high risk of a military defeat.
We will have to wait for the administrations real policy decisions to anticipate where it will go. A good sign will be when Trump succeeds in implementing policies that the hawks he has chosen oppose.
I am not really optimistic about that. My earlier prediction still holds:
[Trump] had previously chosen people who were opposing and sabotaging his policies. He lacked the authority and/or will to rein them in. I do not believe that he has learned from it.
But maybe he did learn from it. I for one will try to stay objective and to give him a chance.
