|
Election 2024 – Random Thoughts
Some random thoughts on Trump's reelection.
Trump's win in 2024 does not prove that the 2020 election was stolen by Democrats but it raises a new stink about the issue.
bigger
When Biden was pushed out of the race there were calls among Democrats not to rush a choice, but to hold full-fledged primaries. Barack Obama had called for it. But Nancy Pelosi and the Clinton clan kept pushing for Harris. As a vacuous and unlikable person – carrying all the baggage of the Biden administration – she was the most likely to lose.
This is, hopefully, the end of wokeism and DEI nonsense. And of 'trans' children and teens.
bigger
To send Bill Clinton to Michigan to justify the mass killing of Palestinians was not a good idea. The 2024 result in Dearborn, Michigan, a 90% Muslim area that Biden had won with 88% of the vote:
- Trump: 46.8%
- Harris: 27.68%
- Stein: 22.11%
The Democrats will blame various groups – Muslim, progressives, youths – who's opinions and desires they had ignored, for their loss. And of course Russia.
Trump won the working class:
Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo – 14:27 UTC · Nov 6, 2024
Staggering class realignment/shift in working class
Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way
2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45
2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K, 49-47
2020: Biden wins voters under $50K, 55-45
2024: Trump massive improvement w/ voters under $50K, 49-48
Harris had more billionaires on her side:
The Billionaire-ification of the U.S. Election
For the 2024 election, a staggering $15.9 billion has been spent on ads and campaigning by both Democrats and Republicans, making it the most expensive election in history; in just one week, nearly $1 billion has been poured into political ads.
…
Eighteen percent of all political ad funding has come straight from the pockets of a tiny handful of America’s mega-rich. In fact, according to USA Today, Harris has 83 billionaires supporting her—making up 6% of her campaign funds, according to Al Jazeera—while 52 are backing Trump, but they’re extremely generous donors, making up 34% of his campaign fund.
In other words: the country’s wealthiest are bankrolling the election, wielding political power and influence like never before. Not only is this bad news for democracy, it’s catastrophic for the planet.
Trump is unlikely to have a full term. J.D. Vance will become president. He is the future of the Republican party.
@Exile #252
1)money printing works in “small” controled amounts, but not in overwhelming amounts.
Disagree. Do you know who has printed more than the US in relative economic terms?
China.
China GDP in 1984 was about 720 billion yuan.
China’s debt today is around 50 or 60 trillion yuan vs a GDP of 126 trillion yuan.
So China has printed roughly 69 times their 1984 GDP, or 6,900%
Do you understand now why GDP growth matters?
2) BRICs+ are rapidly exiting dollars. Faster than anyone expected. I estimate 2027 to be the year (5 years after Feb 2022) to be when de-dollarization impacts federal interest rates in a significant way – 10 year at least at 5% maybe even 7%. That destroys federal budget. Let’s see.
You are fixating too much on interest rates. I already provided an example where obviously high interest rates are not hurting economic growth: Russia as we speak.
Even should BRICS fully dedollarize – a French economist looked at the impact: it is to drop the USD as trade reserve from 60%-ish to high 30%/low 40%. A major shift but not fatal by any means. See below vassals.
3) Agreed vassals will be vassals. Since they are big rich economies, their vassalage will obscure impact of de-dollarization. BTW – you forgot Japan in your list.
Japan is there. Read it again.
4) Agreed – making real stuff is The-Wealth-Of-Nations. Stockman calls this breadwinner jobs. Want to cry long and hard ? Visit the industrial area of Erie PA. Row upon Row of Million square foot factories with dusty machine tools rusting away. There are dozens of similar examples.
I understand now why you are fixated on interest rates and repayment of the US debt.
Stockman is a moron shilling for the fiat equivalent of the gold standard people.
What “bond vigilantes” really means is that people who have already stolen lots of dollars, don’t want more dollars printed unless they get a direct cut. Much as large gold holders in a gold standard system, or the early bitcoin whales in the existing bitcoin setup – having control over a large percentage of float confers the ability to extract value from anyone wanting/needing said float. The gold holders in the past would primarily fuck over farmers – because farmers must get loans to plant and survive on while their crops are growing.
7) $36 trillion debt ? – agreed the powers that be will try and muddle through with a basket of solutions. Lenders are going to be more hard nosed than when the Plaza Accords saved Washington’s bacon in 1985. recall that the Plaza Accords devalued the dollar by 50% in a stealth wealth destruction. Lenders these days are going to get ahead of that curve. The Japanese still haven’t fully recovered from agreeing to the Plaza Accords
You have this completely backwards.
The Plaza Accords screwed Japan not because it devalued the US dollar – it screwed Japan because it overvalued the yen.
Overvaluing the yen screws Japan because Japan is utterly dependent on imports to survive as a 1st world nation: food, energy, iron, plastic, glass, you name it. To get the foreign currency in order to buy these imports, Japan must export.
And Japan exports most successfully when the yen is weak, making its exports cheaper. The Plaza Accords put Japan into a literal 30 year stagnation – of which China is also a major factor since China could trivially undercut Japan’s exports with an even cheaper yuan.
It is the flow of economic activity that makes a nation economically strong.
Again, stop following morons like Stockman.
Note I am not saying that the $36T debt should be paid off by printing money.
What I am saying is that the path forward is to grow the US economy and make that debt, a relatively smaller burden. Increasing US growth by 2% cuts the relative impact of the debt in half in 36 years. Increasing US wages by the rate of productivity growth would be 1%+ just by itself, but this cannot happen without increased economic activity.
Doubling economic activity is very possible in a reshoring situation – not as drastic as Russia or World War 2, but possible.
Did you know that the share of the Russian state budget from energy is the lowest it has ever been? It is because non-energy related economic activity is so high now that tax receipts have grown enormously.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 7 2024 16:44 utc | 275
|
