Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 4, 2024
White House To Meddle In Lebanese Policies – Provoking More Bombings

David Ignatius, the CIA's and administration's spokesperson at the Washington Post, is peddling one of these day's most stupid ideas:

The U.S. has an opportunity to help rebuild Lebanese sovereignty – (archived)
Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah has created a security vacuum.

The Biden administration’s diplomacy has failed to restrain Israel and de-escalate the Middle East conflict over the past year. But the administration has a new opportunity for constructive engagement: helping the Lebanese Armed Forces fill the void left by a collapsing Hezbollah and reestablish the Lebanese government’s sovereignty.

To start a column with a lies shows the way it will go. The Biden administration has not 'failed to restrain' Israel but has urged it to peruse its attacks on Hizbullah:

Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the U.S. agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah in order to convince the group to engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict, the officials told POLITICO.

The Lebanese Armed Forces, which Ignatius wants to promote, have a nominal strength of some 80,000 men. But, thanks to U.S. influence over it, they is only lightly armed, little trained and of no use against any serious enemy. The LAF's fighting value in quantity and quality is well below that of Hizbullah's cadres.

Ignatius is dreaming:

Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah — culminating in the killing of Hasan Nasrallah last week — has created a security vacuum in Lebanon. The shellshocked lower ranks of Hezbollah undoubtedly hope to fill the void. But for the first time in a generation, there’s a real chance that the LAF takes control of the nation’s security and its borders, with proper assistance.

'A collapsing Hizbullah' is a wet dream of imperialist and Zionist but has nothing to do with reality. Just ask the Israeli forces which, in recent days, tried to infiltrate into southern Lebanon. The alleged 'security vacuum' hit them with all its might:

Israeli forces were struck with rockets on the outskirts of the Lebanese town of Odaisseh on Thursday afternoon, one of the towns where troops fell into a bloody ambush just a day earlier.

A Hezbollah guided-missile attack also hit a Merkava tank in the Natoa settlement not long before.

“When an Israeli enemy infantry force attempted to infiltrate towards the cemetery of the town of Yaroun, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance detonated a Sejil explosive device at the advancing force at 12:00 noon on Thursday 10-3-2024, killing and wounding them,” Hezbollah said earlier, marking its 21st statement on 3 October.

Hezbollah announced shortly before that its fighters “detonated an explosive device at 12:00 noon on Thursday 10-3-2024 with a force from the Golani Brigade in the Tartira area in the town of Maroun al-Ras, which was trying to bypass the western side of the town.”

The members of the Golani Brigade force were killed or wounded, the Hezbollah statement added.

Over the last days the 'security vacuum' also managed to fire hundreds of missiles onto the Zionist colony:

Sirens sounded in Israel's Haifa, Carmel foot hills and the Hadera region, including – for the first time since the war began, in Caesarea, An affluent seaside community where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu owns a private residence.

Hezbollah attacked northern Israel including the cities of Haifa and Acre repeatedly since the early morning hours. Rockets also landed in the Upper Galilee causing damage but no injuries.

The White House thinking, it seems, is not impeded by any reality:

The Biden administration sees a “massive opportunity” in Lebanon, a senior official told me this week. But to help Lebanon regain sovereignty, the Biden administration will have to move quickly and decisively while Hezbollah is still in disarray.

The Pentagon has been rehearsing for this role for several decades through its support program for the LAF. Less than four months ago, the Pentagon hosted the LAF’s commander, Gen. Joseph Aoun, in Washington and at Centcom headquarters in Florida.

“Biden administration officials want the LAF to prepare a force that could potentially deploy near the border to monitor a future buffer zone negotiated between Israel and Hezbollah,” Al-Monitor news organization reported at the time of Aoun’s visit in mid-June.

The LAF forces are already deployed near the border. They are not very friendly with Israeli forces which routinely kills them:

Two Lebanese army soldiers were killed in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon on Thursday, the military said as Hezbollah said it repelled Israeli troops trying to cross the border.

The army said in a statement that a soldier was killed in an Israeli strike on a military post in the Bint Jbeil area, adding that soldiers fired back at the source of the fire.

A military official told AFP that this was the first response to Israeli fire since last October because the post had been “directly” hit.

It was the second Lebanese soldier to be killed by Israeli strikes on Thursday.

The army had announced earlier in the day that a soldier “was killed and another was wounded as a result of an aggression by the Israeli enemy during an evacuation and rescue operation with the Lebanese Red Cross in Taybeh village.”

To support his dream Ignatius cites a long discredited Lebanese neo-conservative:

Michael Young, a veteran Lebanese journalist, explained the dynamics after Nasrallah’s death in a post Sunday for the Carnegie Endowment’s Diwan website. He juxtaposed Hezbollah’s “logic of resistance” with “the logic of the state” and said the latter “imposes itself on a country that has been carried into a catastrophe by an armed group that has disregarded the Lebanese state.”

Young wrote that in the view of many Lebanese, “the single national institution that retains credibility and widespread popular endorsement is the Lebanese army.”

Unlike Ignatius, Young himself sees no plausible way to put the Lebanese army on top of the state. The most influential politician in Lebanon is the current speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri. His Amal party is allied with Hizbullah and depends on its votes. Without Berri's support, Young writes, any change in the distribution of power in Lebanon is inconceivable.

But Ignatius insists that the impossible is doable or at least worth a try:

[R]ebuilding the Lebanese state behind a strong army — supported by a population that is sick of Hezbollah’s violent fantasy of resistance — is an achievable goal. It will require disciplined American effort and political will. But it’s a worthy task for Joe Biden’s final months in office and for his successor.

So let's send the Marines to prop up the LAF and let's manipulated the country's policies through bribes from the U.S. embassy.

Some thirty years ago the U.S. attempted to do such stupid things. In consequence its embassy got blown up as were the Marine's barracks.

Why someone believes that it is smart to now follow a similar strategy, and to thereby likely provoke a similar outcome, is well beyond me.


Added: Ignatius' column is, apparently, not a fluke. Axios just posted this:

Scoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah's weakness to elect new Lebanese president

The stupidity – it hurts.

Comments

4.5 earthquake in the Kevir Desert, Iran, earlier today.
Test?

Posted by: Mary | Oct 5 2024 20:23 utc | 501

Posted by: Menz | Oct 5 2024 11:40 utc | 403
“Russia has delivered Iran the S-400”
Do you have any sources other than this post on X, which cites no source? Thanks
And if I wouldn’t be as harsh as Ed4 | Oct 5 2024 19:24 utc | 495, who writes : “S-400… How well have they performed against Ukraine?”
I wouldn’t bet too much on any S-400s, *IF* S-400s are delivered to Iran, WHO could make them work optimally?
This technology requires an entire team of highly-trained experts.
And there’s no such thing as a magic weapon: if the empire decides to raze Iran to the ground, a few S-400s won’t make a difference

Posted by: Tak-Tik | Oct 5 2024 21:39 utc | 502

“How can Israel dictate what people do in South Beirut?”
Israel can send drones and bombers to kill rescue workers any time they want to. So yes. For now they are in control.
Posted by: golddigger | Oct 5 2024 17:24 utc | 489
=========
That is unbelievable!
“Let your neighbors die, or you will be sorry!
Cuz we will commit ANOTHER WAR CRIME, THIS TIME ON YOU!
GET OVER IT!”
I am gob-smacked.

Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 503

Iran has closed its airspace & withdrawn ships in advance of imminent Israeli attack
https://t.me/intelslava/67882
Posted by: Mary | Oct 5 2024 20:11 utc | 499

This is part of ongoing psyop. Fake news. Official denial here:
https://hamshahrionline.ir/x9yRh
Zionists are pulling their hair after True Promise II, don’t know what to do.
Right now the chances that a section of Zionist military go for “Stauffenberg Option” much higher then a Zionist attack on Iran.

Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 504

I missed this earlier post, but the “the vast scope of economic treasure the US as a country….” is already mortgaged to the hilt: https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 5 2024 20:22 utc | 501
============
I chose some words that seem to be triggering comments that do not seem to be germane to Dr. Hudson’s points about the structure (and productivity) of the US economy vs. that of Russia.

Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:42 utc | 505

Right now the chances that a section of Zionist military go for “Stauffenberg Option” much higher then a Zionist attack on Iran.
Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 505
===========
What is the Stauffenberg option?

Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:43 utc | 506

What is the Stauffenberg option?
Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:43 utc | 507

go to your search engine and type in claus von stauffenberg

Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 22:46 utc | 507

I am gob-smacked.
Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 504
______
Oh come now, Jane. You’re unpleasant but you’re not stupid, nor were you born yesterday. Surely you know how the “Israelis” roll.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 5 2024 22:55 utc | 508

Right now the chances that a section of Zionist military go for “Stauffenberg Option” much higher then a Zionist attack on Iran.
Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 505
______
If only I could agree, but I can’t.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 5 2024 22:57 utc | 509

What is the Stauffenberg option?
Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:43 utc | 507
go to your search engine and type in claus von stauffenberg
Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 22:46 utc | 508
_____
It’s cute, but wholly unconvincing, when Jane plays dumb. No doubt she’s preparing an attack based on your response.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 5 2024 23:08 utc | 510

It’s cute, but wholly unconvincing, when Jane plays dumb. No doubt she’s preparing an attack based on your response.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 5 2024 23:08 utc | 511

She is ok, Nothing in my response should provoke a reaction.

Posted by: Framarz | Oct 5 2024 23:21 utc | 511

circumspect @ Oct 5 2024 14:29 utc | 451
Great points you are bringing up!
The Arab comprador states can see the writing on the wall for a while now. Their elites being propped up by the US for decades one is wondering if they are compromised like Europe or given the more volatile region aware that they would be threatened by a rising Umma. It may well happen that the atrocities become more important than the Shia/Sunni divide, it would be about time if one naively postulates Islam follows about 600 years after Christianity. Maybe the more recent bills get settled first (aka decolonisation).
In any case Arab states would be ground up between the blocs unless they play both sides smartly. Defect first, defect best, just don’t raise the big dog. Ansarallah and Hezbollah surviving the current onslaught and getting into the attrition game is an inflection point. If Saudi Arabia ramps down security for US forces and bases, that is another one. The question here is what could make SA not just steer away but fully tip?
Diego Garcia is important but what point targets are there that will have any impact on Iran? You can assassinate Khamenei with a B2 for sure, you can target the nuke plants or refineries but none of this will even stem the flow. If anything it invites retaliation, so far oil infrastructure is taboo for both sides. US planners have their bases in disconnected locations in enemy territory, none of this is defensible. Supply lines are through enemy territory, a few IEDs make supply entirely impossible.
After the US elections the new president will be fairly free for unpopular moves, debts will have to be paid to the elites and AIPAC. This will be peak Israel too as I can’t see loyalty oaths or jewish money being as important next election cycle.
Cracks are showing in the US after the hurricane, this is peak neocon imperialism, from hereon it’s retreat without further gain. Israel First positions will be revolting to Dems for humanitarian reasons and to Reps due to competition/greed.
Israel can’t do anything about this either. Most intelligence/sabotage is spent, most air assets are spent on shock and awe. Army is degraded, low morale. GröFaZ Nutty went all in and opened multiple fronts to get bogged down in, soon including West Bank. The political front is pretty quiet too, UN kind of ceased existing, this one is bound to come back too.
For now I would think Israel will use up more assets in a strike on Iran, they probably go for maximum deterrence and another atrocity.
My bet is they will be thinking about nuking a nuke plant as they will assume deniability. Alternatively based on capabilities they will assassinate, if they are really stupid it’s Khamenei. Refineries probably would be blocked by the US, they will have to go for signaling.
The safest endgame for the Resistance is to thoroughly discredit the far right. The far right works on the promise of security and religios zealots.
A few hits on water supply, electricity and ports will tell every Israeli that their position has become untenable and that Iran can strike at will.
There is also nothing the USA can do about this, after sufficient shots something will hit. No deterrence either, that coin is already spent.

Posted by: SOS | Oct 6 2024 7:11 utc | 512

jayc @ Oct 5 2024 17:07 utc | 484
Glad to hear the EU elites are totally misreading the room again. Not only they do believe Israeli is winning, they also praise War Crimes.
Right now no one is stopping the politicians from blindly following USA and Israel outside of the voting booth. The current German govenment has lost it’s electorate. Only two parties have growth right now and both on anti-war platforms.
Germany is slow to turn around, heavy MSM propaganda. Those old persons that read and think or still talk to the youth are scared shitless to the point of prepping. Those that read BILD are scared but still see atrocities as such, that part of indoctrination still works. Germany will not turn for humanitarian reasons but for economic ones. So far USA was the guarantor of wealth with a white knight myth of liberating the Germans from themselves. Handing off sovereignty was not just punishment and rational, it was sacred civic duty.
Youth is generally pacificist and/or can’t be bothered, also more chasing the climate change goose then touching politics.
Economy is a far bigger topic than world peace, Germany will do anything to stay wealthy. Resentment is mostly there because elites are betting on the wrong horse. Military adventurism has few followers, everyone is in to “defend Europe”, aka protecting wealth.
“Die Welt” is a far-right publications for CDU/CSU voters – for aspiring intellectuals among the burgeois. Kind of New York Times (democratic right).

Posted by: SOS | Oct 6 2024 7:35 utc | 513

Ed4 @ Oct 5 2024 19:24 utc | 495

S-400… How well have they performed against Ukraine?

Yeah, all those MIGs and F16s in Russian airspace are a sight to see.
Tak-Tik @ Oct 5 2024 21:39 utc | 503

And there’s no such thing as a magic weapon: if the empire decides to raze Iran to the ground, a few S-400s won’t make a difference

Iran is way to big to raze with a few Tomahawks and F35.
It has a good chance of stopping the 2-4 planes Israel can send to hit the enrichment facilites or assassinate leaders.
It can also keep AWACS away and hit a few very expensive F35 so it absolutely makes a difference. Look at Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine now to see what undefended airspace does, be assured this will not happen to Iran.

Posted by: SOS | Oct 6 2024 7:44 utc | 514

I am gob-smacked.
Posted by: Jane | Oct 5 2024 22:36 utc | 504
But why? Israel isn’t sesame street. They have acting like this since the 1920s / 1930s / 1940s true to form.

Posted by: Darma | Oct 6 2024 9:40 utc | 515

Posted by: SOS | Oct 6 2024 7:44 utc | 515 “Yeah, all those MIGs and F16s in Russian airspace are a sight to see.”
I think an F-16 has been seen over Kursk or is that not Russian airspace anymore? But I was thinking more of all the drones Ukraine launches fairly deep in to Russia airspace once or twice a week. Or all the Ukrainian Migs and now F-16’s flying just behind the front lines for the last 900+ days of this mess.

Posted by: Ed4 | Oct 6 2024 10:24 utc | 516

“The IDF attacks on rescue teams in south Beirut are yet another war crime, but at this point you could write an 800 page book on the war crimes committed by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza.”
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Oct 5 2024 16:42 utc | 478
I disagree.
A book that encompasses all Israeli/Zionist war crimes would be a multi volume tome with at least 10,000 pages.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 6 2024 12:22 utc | 517

Some 10 years ago The israelis did an attack on Syria using F-35 planes, and Assad/Syria used the legacy Soviet S-250 air defense system to retaliate against the israeli F-35. The F-35 was almost landed on the runway by the time the S-250 missile caught up to it and destroyed the F-35. The israelis claim it was a pigeon bird strike that destroyed their F-35, but it was Assad/Syria and antique Soviet radar and missile.
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2020/12/327745/israel-claims-birds-not-syria-took-down-96-million-f-35-fighter-jet

Posted by: Hot Carl | Oct 6 2024 13:08 utc | 518

The Jews were told by God to kill the worshippers of the Calf. The same remedy woukd be appropriate now for the genociders and their supporters.
If they are actual Jews as they pretend they are.

Posted by: Giyane | Oct 9 2024 0:28 utc | 519

Jane 507
Now that they can smell a fight indtead of just a cull , the floppy beret armchair colonels who know every battle in history have arrived.
Fair play, they have so much knowledge, but that knowledge is anorak knowledge.
They might not actually support the Palestinian side. Just sayin.

Posted by: Giyane | Oct 9 2024 5:08 utc | 520

In terms of Judaism and Israeli society and their destiny, comparisons to Germany are misleading. Nutter isn’t Hitler. His script isn’t Colonialism. That is Empire’s intention and Yanks and Empire2 Tories love Hegemony so much they think they can take a ride on a Khazar scam that Israel can be expanded.
Now that the Israelis have seen through the illusion of Safety through Fear, and seen through the Netanyahu’s Nazism, and seen where his stupid ideas have got them to, the brink of destruction, please give them a little time to reflect on their stipidity in following this Nazi slogan.
The American mind is totally unable to leave its addiction to fighting.
Let the poor Israeli buggers work it out for themselves. They hate fighting. The US isn’t going to fight anybody for them. Netanyahu is a pathetic , populist, conman, Khazar atheist.
He must be arrested and face the charges against him. Gallant has probably already committed suicide.
Regime change in Tel Aviv would mean regime change in Washington, followed by hundreds of Atlantic poodle regime changes. I wish you USblowhards had souls, like ordinary men and women

Posted by: Giyane | Oct 9 2024 6:07 utc | 521