The current leader of Ukraine, its former president Vladimir Zelenski, urgently needs more troops. Recent changes in the mobilization laws did not really change the intake of new recruits. The few people caught under it and sent to the front where often medical or socially impaired or elderly people unfit for holding the front line. Many desert as soon as they can (edited machine translation):
As stated in the response of the Prosecutor General's Office to the request of the "Public Integrity Council", for eight months of this year, 29,984 proceedings were opened for unauthorized abandonment of a unit and 15,559 for desertion. In the first year of the war, there were 6,641 and 3,442 such cases, respectively. That is, the growth in both indicators is about five times.
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"Since deserters will be considered in the service (however, without receiving a monetary allowance), this way the illusion of staffing combat military units will be created on paper. As for the consequences of this madness, they are obvious: in October-November, several tens of thousands more soldiers will desert from the front, and the next fortress city will be Pavlograd," Boyko says.
The recent raids in Kiev venues and concerts also do not help. They are mostly theater designed to show that even well off Ukrainians fall under the law.
But most of the people caught during such raids do have the means to pay off the recruiters (edited machine translation):
Raids are carried out in almost all regions and, most notably, in the largest cities, such as Lviv, Odessa and Kiev.
There were practically no such mass demonstrative actions during this war. And judging by the comments of government officials, this campaign was sanctioned at the very top.
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Kharkiv blogger Yevgeny Zub published, as stated, messages from people about how they bought off the shopping center, where they were taken after the last raids.So, one Kharkiv resident writes that he was released from the shopping center for $5,000, subject to payment of $1,000 monthly to the military commissar. Another Kharkiv citizen was released for $2,500. "Imagine how much money will be deposited during the days of the raid? It is difficult," Evgeny Zubov commented on this information.
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Why did the enlistment office raids become more active? On this topic, Strana talked to sources in military enlistment offices and the Ministry of Defense.They say that you need to distinguish between two processes.
The first is "demonstration performances" of the Shopping center at concerts, night clubs and restaurants. They, as we have already written, are mainly informational and PR in nature. And they are designed to show the army and society that "there are no untouchables." In reality, as the sources of the "Country" say, the effect on the replenishment of the army from such events is scanty – mostly men who are "busied" in this way buy off. Moreover, military commissars, thanks to such raids, remove the "double cash register" – they "heal" both detainees and institutions. There have always been fees to ensure that recruitment offices do not disturb customers of restaurants and night clubs. But now the former "pay-offs" on command from above were ordered to be forgotten. But this does not mean that there will be no new agreements. They will. Only more expensive.
However, according to sources, these "demonstration performances", although they attract everyone's attention, are nevertheless auxiliary in nature. Their task is to provide PR cover for the second and main process-a sharp increase in street mobilization and raids on all crowded places: markets, shopping centers, any mass events.
The reason for such activation is the total (up to 70%) failure of plans for mobilization.
A second way to get new troops while the current ones are dying is to ask foreign powers to send their men. Zelenski's 'victory plan' includes that step. But his attempts to get it accepted have failed.
He has since come up with an idea to justify the entry of foreign troops on his side of the war.
Zelenski and his media people have for days now claimed that North Korean troops will soon fight on the side of Russia. This, he hopes, will incite western forces to send their own troops to Ukraine if only to counter the North Koreans.
The first take of this media campaign appeared on October 4:
Missile Strike Near Donetsk Eliminates 6 North Korean Officers – Intel – Kyiv Post
Six officers from North Korea were among the 20 soldiers killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, intelligence sources say.
More than 20 soldiers were killed as a result of an Oct. 3 missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, including six officers from North Korea, who came to confer with their Russian counterparts, Kyiv Post’s intelligence sources said. Three more North Korean servicemen were wounded.
According to reports from Russian social media, prior to the missile strike, the Russians were demonstrating to North Korean representatives the training of personnel for assault actions and defense.
After his failed 'Victory Plan' campaign the former president picked up the theme:
Russia plans to involve North Korea in war in Ukraine this fall, Zelensky says – Kyiv Independent
Russia plans to involve North Korea directly in the full-scale war against Ukraine this fall and winter, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 14, citing intelligence data.
The announcement comes a day after Zelensky warned of an "increasing alliance" between Moscow and Pyongyang.
According to Ukraine's military intelligence, Russia's plans for the fall and winter include "the actual involvement of North Korea in the war," Zelensky said.
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Zelensky warned on Oct. 13 that Russia and North Korea were deepening their alliance, saying that the partnership had escalated to the point where North Korea was sending personnel to Ukraine's front lines along with weapons.
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The warning followed reports from South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun that North Korea is likely to deploy regular troops to Ukraine to aid Russia at the front.Reports have also emerged in recent days that North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike in Russian-occupied territory. The Kyiv Independent has not been able to verify these reports, which have not been confirmed beyond a single intelligence source.
Since then Ukrainian media have added this or bit to the story all based on the same 'intelligence sources'.
Russia forms "Buryat battalion" staffed by North Koreans: 18 soldiers already fled positions – Pravda.ua
The Russians assembled a "special Buryat battalion" recruited from among citizens of Democratic People's Republic of Korea, while 18 North Korean personnel have already escaped from positions located along the border of Russia's Bryansk and Kursk oblasts.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in Ukraine’s special services
Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda, this occurred 7 kilometres from the state border with Ukraine.
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Previously, reports circulated concerning the assembling of a "special Buryat battalion" in the Russian army.The estimated number of personnel in the unit is up to 3,000.
The battalion is expected to be involved in combat activities around the settlements of Sudzha and Kursk.
Some 3,000 men would constitute 6 full fledged infantry battalions, not one.
To have North Koreans fighting in Russia against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk would make little sense. That incursion is for one already mostly defeated.
Besides that the language and cultural problems would make the integration of such forces into Russian military operations nearly impossible. I am sure that the Russian military would be strongly against it.
Zelenski's claims were amplified through various proxies and media appearances (edited machine translation):
The Russian Army wants to achieve maximum results before winter and is not preparing for frosts. This was stated by the speaker of the group "Lugansk" Anastasia Bobovnikova on the air of the telethon.
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Also, Suspilne, citing an intelligence source , reports that Russia wants to send North Korean military personnel to the Kursk region.It is reported that now the Russian army is forming a special battalion of up to 3,000 people, staffed by North Korean citizens, on the basis of 11 ODSHBRS.
The process of providing the battalion with small arms and ammunition is already underway.
I regard the whole claim of North Korean troops in Russia as a fake news story and I am sure that most experts will follow me in that judgment.
However, today U.S. media manage to play up the nonsense:
Why North Korea is sending soldiers to the Russian front lines – Washington Post
Sending solders to help Russia’s war effort against Ukraine could earn valuable foreign currency for Kim Jong Un’s regime and bolster their strengthening ties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week confirmed reports of North Korean troops supporting Russians inside Ukraine, warning that the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang is growing stronger and evolving beyond transferring weapons.
A Ukrainian military intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, told The Washington Post last week that “several thousand” North Korean infantry soldiers are undergoing training in Russia now and could be deployed to the front line in Ukraine by the end of this year.
South Korea’s defense minister Kim Yong-hyun last week called the reports of North Korean military personnel helping Russia “highly likely.” The Kremlin has dismissed the assertion as a “hoax.”
I do not believe that any politician or military in the west will believe that nonsense which is again solely sourced to Ukrainian military intelligence claims. But there is clear campaign by the Ukrainian government to make the issue stick. What is its hope? To induce South Korea to send its forces to fight North Koreans on the Ukrainian border with Russia?
Another way to get foreign forces to fight on the Ukrainian side is to make them swap their current uniforms for Ukrainian ones. A new Ukrainian law recently made that easier:
Foreign citizens and stateless persons were allowed to take officer roles within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine, and the National Guard of Ukraine. The Verkhovna Rada has adopted the law on the matter drafted by the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
Before this, foreigners and stateless persons were limited to roles at the enlisted personnel and NCO levels.
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The news of that change came at the same time as the UK mulles about sending military instructors to Ukraine. Swapping the instructors uniforms could make such an effort less dangerous.