Ukraine Open Thread 2024-262
News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...
Posted by b on October 31, 2024 at 13:17 UTC | Permalink
next page »Dogon Priest @ 1
Thoughts? Sure.
The Sae KIng helicopter is a 1959 design. Belatedly and fully retired by US Navy in 2006. Old trash.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 31 2024 13:50 utc | 3
[email protected]'t Air Force One, the helicopter, a Sea King?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 31 2024 13:54 utc | 4
oldhippie @ 3
Classic definition of boondoggle - An unnecessary or wasteful project or activity, am I right. Great point BTW.
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Oct 31 2024 13:56 utc | 5
Very good interview with french historian Emanuel Todd, his new book "Decline of the West" not published in the US. German edition "Der Westen im Niedergang", Westend Verlag
Mr. Todd, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky recently presented a plan for victory. What do you think of it?
Nothing. The name alone evokes the Orwellian method of completely reinterpreting reality. Because the Russian army is on the advance. So one wonders how many more months the regime in Kiev can hold out. The Russians will win this war. And in the West, people are playing blind and talking about peace.
What makes you so sure that the Russians will win?
European politicians and thinkers are no longer in a position to wage war. And when they are confronted with a real war, they immediately and without thinking start accusing the one who started the war, assuming that the one who started the war is necessarily the guilty party.
There is a broad consensus about who is the aggressor in this war. You seem to believe that Putin is the victim?
Putin is waging a defensive war of aggression. Of course I disapprove of the war. But in this case it was the Americans who took on the Ukrainian army. Ukraine was de facto integrated into NATO. I'm a historian, I just try to understand what happened.
(...)
In your book, you list the three war aims of the Russians as if you had a direct link to the Kremlin.
These objectives can be derived from the security needs of the Russians: Occupation of the eastern bank of the Dnieper, occupation of the Odessa oblast to secure the ports on the Black Sea and a Russia-friendly government in Kiev.
However, this would be tantamount to the total subjugation of Ukraine.
Right, that is the destruction of Ukraine. This shows that I am an honest and serious researcher. People accuse me of being Russophile, they say I'm a Putin apologist. If you want to include a joke in your interview, you can write that it is finally obvious that I am not an agent of the Kremlin, but that I give Putin advice. (...)
https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/russen-werden-diesen-krieg-gewinnen-und-im-westen-stellt-man-sich-blind-und-redet-ueber-den-frieden-ld.1853460
(machine translation)
Posted by: Heraklit | Oct 31 2024 14:03 utc | 6
Old trash.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 31 2024 13:50 utc | 3
Yay! Recycling!
Posted by: Mary | Oct 31 2024 14:10 utc | 7
The Chinese sanctions on Skydio are pretty important. Be interesting to see how Biden's handlers react. Maybe Xi is planning, like Biden with the ruble, to turn the dollar into dolour.
They could do this at any time by selling off their huge US bond holdings.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 31 2024 14:13 utc | 8
oldhippie | Oct 31 2024 13:50 utc | 3
Old stuff if good can still be useful. B52s date from early 1950s, they were going to have straight wings until people got a good look at captured German data on swept wings.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 31 2024 14:19 utc | 9
I was reviewing my record of the PBS NewsHour broadcast from Feb 23, 2024. A minute or so in from the start is a 7 minute interview with Victoria Nuland, who, imho looks like something which was produced in a surgical laboratory on the Island Of Dr Moreau.
Anyhow, the entire interview consists of the biological experiment known as Vicki Nuland explaining in detail why NOTHING the jewed-up Yankees have used to get Putin off-balance in Ukraine has worked.
The only positives Vicki could think of were:
1. Putin is now a pariah (in the jewed-up West).
and
2. Putin has been "driven into the arms of China." i.e. the best arms on the planet!
Only the Dumbass Yankees would be stupid enough to put someone as reckless as Vicki NewLand in charge of ANY THING.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 31 2024 14:21 utc | 10
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Oct 31 2024 13:24 utc | 1
On the pravda.com.ua website it lists Olena Prytula as its founding editor. She was involved with Georgiy Gongadze who was murdered with the killing pinned on then Ukrainian president Kuchma. That was in 2000. Pre-Orange revolution, so she's been around the block. She also hooked up with a Belorussian "journalist" who met his maker in an exploding car bomb as he left her apartment. Sounds like someone I want to date! Swipe left, as the kids might say!
In 2021 Ukrainska Pravda was purchased by Dragon Capital.
Dragon Capital New Ukraine Fund was established in November 2015. Its anchor investors are Dragon Capital and the Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, which is managed by Soros Fund Management.[22][23]
So, I don't know how reliable of a source they are. And also, I gathered this information from some Wikipedia and online links, so I could be totally incorrect, but I don't think I am.
I read your substack, so I'm pretty sure you're from Memphis. Enjoy. Three Six.
Posted by: lex talionis | Oct 31 2024 14:24 utc | 11
Nice!
“Hungary's counterintelligence foils attempt to send weapons to Ukraine
Gergely Gulyas confirmed a report by the Magyar Nemzet newspaper that agents of foreign intelligence agencies were trying to arrange for a delivery of weapons from Hungary to the Ukrainian army
BUDAPEST, October 30. /TASS/. The Hungarian counterintelligence has prevented the shipment of weapons produced in Hungary to Ukraine, the head of the Hungarian prime minister's office, Gergely Gulyas, has told a news briefing.
He confirmed a report by the Magyar Nemzet newspaper that agents of foreign intelligence agencies were trying to arrange for a delivery of weapons from Hungary to the Ukrainian army.
"There was an attempt to use Hungarian manufacturing facilities for this purpose. The Hungarian counterintelligence exposed it and managed to prevent the shipment of weapons produced in Hungary to Ukraine," Gulyas said without elaborating.”
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2024 14:33 utc | 12
Hungary's counterintelligence foils attempt to send weapons to Ukraine
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2024 14:33 utc | 12
Orbán will either reroute the shipment to Israel, or wait for a bribe from the EU and let it quietly continue to the Ukraine, just like with any help or weapons from the EU he "blocked" from going to the Ukraine before. He is the controlled EU opposition paid by the zionists, to give an illusion there is any opposition at all.
Posted by: 2TonCat | Oct 31 2024 14:43 utc | 13
The wicked triad (USAEUNATO) must be incredibly busy between trying to control "noncompliant" States like Hungary, Slovakia, China and the political oppositions of substance in all nations under their control.
Between this; dictating media what to cover and arming conflicts everywhere, it is astonishing that Kremlin can keep up.
Thank God for China&Russia having decided to stand up to this...
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 31 2024 14:51 utc | 14
Posted by: Heraklit | Oct 31 2024 14:03 utc | 6
Interesting answers from Mr. Todd. But the interviewer Roman Bucheli is annoying as fuck. But what can you expect otherwise from the NZZ. It is a pro US and pro NATO mouthpiece.
Posted by: NoName | Oct 31 2024 14:52 utc | 15
Marat Khairullen at his VK begins his report thusly:
The direction of the main attack has been determined. These days a very important event took place at the front. An attentive observer could notice that our General Staff had finally decided on the direction of the main attack. After the rapid capture of Selidovo, a movement began to encircle the enemy grouping on KurakhoveDirection.Now it must be stated that our troops are eliminating the conditional Kurakhove enemy grouping with the forces of three groups. In the Ugledar direction, in the Shakhterskoye-Bogoyavlenka offensive zone, the Vostok group is working. To the north, in the Bogoyavlenka-Kurakhove offensive zone, the South grouping and, finally, in the Kurakhove-Gornyak zone, the Center group.
Such large-scale operations, in which the forces of three fronts are involved at once (the term NWO "grouping" is an analogue of the term "front" in the Second World War), have not been carried out since the Great Patriotic War. What is happening today can be compared to the great Berlin operation.
This is a very important fact, which means that a gigantic military force is concentrated in this area - hundreds and even thousands of artillery barrels, tanks, fighters. We are really witnessing great historical events.
But most importantly, the Great Offensive has really begun!
His report continues and has three excellent maps. Given the rate of combat and advance, the Ukies are reeling away from very significant weight. No sooner than they retreat to a new village they're displaced to the next one. It's important to note there's a decent road network in the region that can be advanced along even in bad weather that has yet to appear, although it's getting colder. I await so-called quiet portions of the LOC to awaken to the South of this main assault front.
Posted by: 2TonCat | Oct 31 2024 14:43 utc | 13
I see it the same way. He has a pragmatic approach towards Russia. When it comes to Israel/Palestine he seems fully behind Israel and so either directly or indirectly supports the mass murder of the Palestinian people.
Posted by: NoName | Oct 31 2024 15:18 utc | 17
c1ue left a response to me on the previous thread about the ukraine elite profiting off this mess in ukraine.. i am sure that is true, but i have mostly been focused on how the west is profiting from this thru the military, banking and energy complex... to give shape to this idea, is someone like poroshenko profiting off all this death and destruction in ukraine?? if not him - try naming some other ukraine oligarch who is profiting handsomely off all this?? kolomoyski??
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 15:22 utc | 18
@ 2TonCat | Oct 31 2024 14:43 utc | 13
this idea that orban is in bed with the zionists has been repeated a few times here at moa... does anyone have any substance to back it up?? it sounds like some memo ursala von leyen has fired off to take down orban...
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 15:24 utc | 19
@ karlof1 | Oct 31 2024 15:08 utc | 16
further to karls comment from marat -
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 15:30 utc | 20
Old stuff if good can still be useful.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 31 2024 14:19 utc | 9
---
In the 60's as analytical methods improved engineered structures underwent a design philosophy change and morphed from static to dynamic integrations.
In the earlier "static" style only small networks of structural elements could be analyzed which lead to conservative failure mode analyses and structures that could suffer the failure of individual nodes without catastrophic collapse.
Modern finite element analysis design lends itself to structures that are interdependent on their complete network, where a failure of a single node is catastrophic.
Sliderule era designs tend to be able to endure more damage before failure than modern things. And they are easier to repair too.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 31 2024 15:46 utc | 21
Sliderule era designs tend to be able to endure more damage before failure than modern things. And they are easier to repair too.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 31 2024 15:46 utc | 21
Yes, but for how long?
That is why I liked seeing in this article that most of RF nuclear deterrent is recent and tested new stuff (unlike the us)
"the submarine launch of an RSM-56 Bulava intercontinental range ballistic missile from the Sea of Okhotsk near Japan. The new missile class was operationalised in 2018"
"submarine launch of an R-29RMU Sineva intercontinental range ballistic missile, a lighter and shorter ranged counterpart to the Bulava that first entered service in 2007."
"the backbone of the Russian land based strategic nuclear forces today, with half of all ground-based ICBM regiments having been re-equipped with Yars missiles by mid-2021 - for a total arsenal of over 180 ICBMs"
The full article is worth reading (its based on Russian Defence Ministry footage and I assume PR) https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-icbms-strategic-drills-breakdown
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2024 15:57 utc | 22
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Oct 31 2024 13:56 utc | 5
##########
Every penny "invested" in Ukraine's "defense" for decades has been a boondoggle for money laundering.
Western politicians love to send money to Ukraine for any reason because it finds a way of ending up back in their personal and family bank accounts.
That helps up understand the ferocious and unwavering support of many governments.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 16:07 utc | 23
People were right about China supplying drones to Ukraine...
China has imposed sanctions on the largest American drone manufacturer Skydio and banned its companies from supplying it with critical components, including batteries. Skydio supplies drones to Ukraine and Taiwan, among others, the Financial Times reports.Earlier, Ukraine also complained that China had quietly tightened export controls on drones that were delivered to Ukraine. Of course, no one has cancelled the possibility of purchasing through third countries, but China has cut off a number of channels that are beneficial for Ukraine.
Boris Rozhin
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:10 utc | 24
Urgent. We receive information that the enemy has amassed two armored fists in the Kharkov direction.
In the area of the outskirts of Izyum, up to 30 tanks and 11 Bradley IFVs have been unloaded in the forest plantations.
In the area of the village of Golubovka, up to 30 tanks, including Leopards, have been concentrated.
Taking into account the information from the Kursk region, where the khokhol is pulling up reserves in the Sudzha area, we conclude that the enemy will go on the attack by the US elections.WELDERS
As was said earlier, the enemy still has reserves for at least one attempt to strike during the autumn campaign. So if the accumulation of enemy reserves and the assembly of the strike group are revealed correctly, the enemy should lose the operational-tactical surprise.
Boris Rozhin
Ukraine is preparing attacks and has at least 60 tanks for that.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:12 utc | 25
this idea that orban is in bed with the zionists has been repeated a few times here at moa... does anyone have any substance to back it up?? it sounds like some memo ursala von leyen has fired off to take down orban...
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 15:24 utc | 19
I'm not 2TonCat but maybe I can give you an answer. I got my opinion about him probably from Interviews. But also how Hungary voted the last (?) year at the UN concerning Israel/Palestine. The last couple of votes if I remember correctly were always in favour of Israel.
Here are two articles you may find interesting. I made a quick research and found them within a couple of minutes - so I don't vouch for the sources:
"The Roots of Orban’s Strong Bond with Israel and its PM"
https://balkaninsight.com/2023/11/14/the-roots-of-orbans-strong-bond-with-israel-and-its-pm/
or this:
"Orban: Israel and Hungary have ‘great results’ in ‘building conservative community’"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/orban-israel-and-hungary-have-great-results-in-building-conservative-community/
I will not post any further on this subject in this thread because it is offtopic (it was not offtopic at the beginning, when it was mentioned, that they blocked weapons for Ukraine, but everything afterwards).
Posted by: NoName | Oct 31 2024 16:35 utc | 26
2TonCat | Oct 31 2024 14:43 utc | 13
"Orbán will either reroute the shipment to Israel, or wait for a bribe from the EU and let it quietly continue to the Ukraine, just like with any help or weapons from the EU he "blocked" from going to the Ukraine before. He is the controlled EU opposition paid by the zionists, to give an illusion there is any opposition at all."
To be fair, he's geographically isolated and surrounded by enemies, waiting for the Russians to reach the border to complete the land bridge to Hungary and Serbia. If that doesn't happen soon he'll have no choice but to knuckle under completely in the end, or else be changed out.
Posted by: flying dutchman | Oct 31 2024 16:43 utc | 27
Kokhols are trying to attack Russia again ? The winter will be very cold in Banderistan this year. USA put nazi in the fridge figuratively , Russia will do it literally :)
Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 31 2024 16:45 utc | 28
Ukraine is preparing attacks and has at least 60 tanks for that.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:12 utc | 25
Ukraine is still very strong as the electrical grid still works.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 utc | 29
Ukraine is still very strong as the electrical grid still works.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 u
Kiev is actually very weak. Thats why theyre BEGGING Russia not to hit power supplies as winter approaches.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 31 2024 17:01 utc | 30
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:12 utc | 25
########
They should send them to Kursk!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 17:05 utc | 31
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 utc | 29
###########
The electrical grid will not freeze Ukraine. What will freeze it is the expiration of any gas contracts with Europe, which I believe will expire by November 15th.
Are they going to pipe in natural gas from Scandinavia, and through which pipelines?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 17:08 utc | 32
The electrical grid thing drives me crazy because we're talking about legacy Soviet heating systems, which are natural-gas powered.
Generally, electricity is costly and inefficient to provide heating.
Electricity shortage compromises the quality of life (entertainment, hours of activity) and reduces train traffic (much of Ukraine's trains are electric). That will have affected military transportation but people with access to natural gas will still have hot water and radiant heat which are essential.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 17:17 utc | 33
C’est une chanson pour les mecs.
Řekni, kde ti muži jsou,
co se, k čertu, mohlo stát,
řekni, kde ti muži jsou,
kde mohou být.
Muži v plné polní jdou,
do války zas je zvou,
kdo to kdy pochopí,
kdo to kdy pochopí.
A kde jsou ti vojáci,
lidi, co se mohlo stát
a kde jsou ti vojáci,
kde mohou být.
Řady hrobů v zákrytu,
meluzína kvílí tu,
kdo to kdy pochopí,
kdo to kdy pochopí.
Řekni, kde ty hroby jsou,
co se s nimi mohlo stát,
řekni, kde ty hroby jsou,
kde mohou být.
Co tu kytek rozkvétá
od jara do léta,
kdo to kdy pochopí,
kdo to kdy pochopí.
А где ж гуси? В камыш ушли.
А где ж камыш? Девки выжали.
А где ж девки? Девки замуж ушли.
А где ж казаки? На войну пошли …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS3-lyqCl80
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AybZIw8BRIM
Posted by: Josef Schweik | Oct 31 2024 17:23 utc | 34
Ukraine is still very strong as the electrical grid still works.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 utc | 29
And their supply routes and logistics are good.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 17:28 utc | 35
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 17:17 utc | 33
Only if they use gas stowes.
Water based heat systems, like radiators, won't work without electricity to operate the pump circulating the water.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 31 2024 17:28 utc | 36
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 utc | 29
###########
The electrical grid will not freeze Ukraine. What will freeze it is the expiration of any gas contracts with Europe, which I believe will expire by November 15th.
Are they going to pipe in natural gas from Scandinavia, and through which pipelines?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 17:08 utc | 32
They obtain gas from Germany and Poland. They shall have no problems with this as EU decided to pay for them.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 17:37 utc | 37
US to Fund Drone-Bombing of Western Russia, the First $800M Already on the Way.
anti-empire.org
It seems that Us is going to give some kind of very long range suicide drones instead of missiles.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 17:45 utc | 38
vargas
Are you a Troll? You are pro empire, which means you are pro fascist, pro oligarch, and anti- humanity. I know, I know I shouldn't feed the troll, but everyone else seems to feed this troll.
Posted by: dp | Oct 31 2024 18:08 utc | 39
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 17:37 utc | 37
########
Correct me if I am wrong, isn't Germany hemmorhaging industry due to a shortage of Russian natural gas?
The Germans are white Colonialists. They aren't going to slit their throats in winter to keep Zelensky comfortable.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 18:15 utc | 40
@ NoName | Oct 31 2024 16:35 utc | 26
thanks noname... those links are helpful.. the first one is from nov 2023 and the 2nd one from jan 2023, so maybe his views have altered given the last year of insanity.. cheers james
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 18:19 utc | 42
Posted by: Mario | Oct 31 2024 17:28 utc | 36
##########
Modern Western heating requires electricity. Legacy Soviet gas water heaters do not.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 18:23 utc | 43
Ukraine is preparing attacks and has at least 60 tanks for that.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:12 utc | 25
Ukraine is still very strong as the electrical grid still works.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 31 2024 16:56 utc | 29
their tanks run from a catenary?
Posted by: MAKK | Oct 31 2024 18:25 utc | 44
Lavrov hinted that Russia would have no problem going on with the SMO for 20 years, while wondering if the west could support it.
I love it! No hurry.
Patience et longueur de temps font plus que force ni que rage.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 18:33 utc | 45
Posted by: dp | Oct 31 2024 18:08 utc | 39
He is the favourite punching ball of the barflies. He cannot stop posting comments the ones more stupid than the others. Like Ukraine is strong, Putin is weak. He is an agent provocateur. I would add: a two lines agent provocateur.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 18:39 utc | 46
Ukraine is preparing attacks and has at least 60 tanks for that.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2024 16:12 utc | 25
Very good news! We know that offensives of the ukronazis always turn into meat grinders. It hastens the attrition.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 18:41 utc | 47
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/66930
❗️Guaranteed to kill indoors: Russian Armed Forces have begun launching thermobaric "Geraniums" at Ukraine, — KNIISE▪️They will not destroy walls, but there is no chance of survival indoors.
▪️The charge creates a blast wave that destroys buildings and destroys human lungs.
▪️The Russian Armed Forces set tasks for these UAVs in advance.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 31 2024 19:47 utc | 48
The enemy's invasion of the Kursk region was allegedly "sanctioned" by the General Staff - a new scandal on the Web
▪️The statement of journalist Yulia Vityazeva about the alleged plan of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to allow Zelensky to invade the Kursk region caused fierce debate on the Web.
▪️"According to Vityazeva, the General Staff, the Ministry of Defense and the president "provided ZELENSKY with a unique opportunity" - not just to get bogged down, but to drown in the Kursk adventure, the Plan was not just cunning, but also, most importantly, effective and justified. You will agree that it is impossible to imagine a more terrible accusation against the country's leadership. The word "acquitted" sounds like a sentence!" writes Yana Poplavskaya.
The idea voiced by Vityazeva that "the tragedy in the Kursk region with the evacuation of at least 130000 Russian citizens, the shootings of civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and hundreds of Russian people deported to Ukraine, was a "cunning, but most importantly, effective and justified" plan. "Ministry of Defense, General Staff and personally VVP" we ask you to write off the autumn exacerbation.
▪️"Of course, the Russian Army is now making the most of the moment to defeat the enemy troops arriving in the region, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot retreat, otherwise a newly formed group of our troops will pour into Sumy after them. But to call it a PLAN, you need to absolutely not understand Russia and its military-political leadership. In general, the post looks like some kind of cunning provocation," the authors of the Two Majors channel believe.
▪️Kursk volunteer Roman Alekhin and artist Sergei Moskalkov (in the video) also showed indignation.
Posted by: guest | Oct 31 2024 19:53 utc | 49
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 18:41 utc | 47
And don’t forget how tanks have become sitting ducks for FPV drones and lancet drones … not much of a plan.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 31 2024 20:00 utc | 50
Forwarded from War Correspondent Kitten1. Our society and the media have an absolutely inadequate assessment of the military situation in the SVO zone. Unfortunately, the tone for distorting the information background, and often disinformation, was set even before the start of the Special Operation by official security agencies in the form of some talking heads with generals' stars, who, when broadcasting ticker tapes, threw in figures that radically overstated the enemy's losses in manpower and equipment by several times. These reports were broadcast almost daily. When adding up the indicators and figures, it turned out to be almost complete destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At this rate, we "filled" the enemy's personnel several times over.
This flow was echoed by numerous talk shows on TV channels, where the enemy was presented as a demoralized, absolutely militarily inadequate mass, a herd that was being sent to slaughter in droves. Demonization of the enemy was elevated to the rank of an obligatory everyday phenomenon to such an extent that people have forgotten how to separate truth from fiction.
And now, with the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction and the halt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kursk, the media, some LOMs, and chatterboxes on TV have already started babbling (as in February 22) that: 1) the Ukrainian Armed Forces front has crumbled; 2) the supply of weapons, equipment, and ammunition from the West is coming to an end for a number of reasons; 3) in a month or two the enemy will have no one and nothing to fight with, and capitulation is coming; 4) others are already tormented by doubts about whether to give Lvov to the Poles, etc.
In general, the benefit performance of self-confidence is taking place again, which is hardly consistent with reality, and here is why:
1. The enemy's defense has not crumbled, has not disappeared, has not caved in. The enemy is retreating west of Donetsk, in a number of areas, thinly, but holding on.
2. Foreign arms deliveries to the Ukrainian Armed Forces have changed, but they continue and will continue, even despite the possible change of top officials in the United States.
3. As colleagues rightly point out, Kiev no longer has cyclopean reserves, but units and formations abroad are preparing (the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrsky gave the order to transfer units undergoing combat coordination from abroad to the front). The enemy is raking out the male population from the bins of Ukraine and is ready to put the "Hitler Youth" and female units into action.
4. Finally, to put it mildly, there is no smell of capitulation. For now. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still holding bridgeheads in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, periodically trying to advance deep into Russian territory. Despite significant losses, the enemy is trying to maintain logistics in this direction, ensuring replenishment (rotation) and compensating for the loss of personnel.
5. We are conducting offensive actions, contrary to the laws of military science, we are moving forward with minimal numbers thanks to the mass courage and heroism of personnel. The losses are very high, both near Kursk and near Donetsk. The enemy is transferring reinforcements, trying to prevent the collapse of the front. The enemy is still trying to use missile weapons in our operational and tactical rear, working on the points of temporary deployment of units and formations of the RF Armed Forces.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 31 2024 20:05 utc | 51
vargas
Are you a Troll? You are pro empire, which means you are pro fascist, pro oligarch, and anti- humanity. I know, I know I shouldn't feed the troll, but everyone else seems to feed this troll.
Posted by: dp | Oct 31 2024 18:08 utc | 39
Yeah, he is. But as trolls go, he's relatively well behaved.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 31 2024 20:15 utc | 52
After watching SkrufyTales latest video, it becomes clear that Kursk is a different animal. Much of the area "claimed" as under control of one side or the other is really a gray zone, as it is open fields where any vehicle or even small groups of soldiers would be sitting ducks for FPV drones. There are "islands" of forested areas, much smaller than the open plains, where some soldiers could try to dig in and hide under the trees. Also, there are "windbreaks" which are simply narrow treelines meant to break the wind for the adjacent farmers fields.
Such a terrain is not conducive to moving large armored columns around, obviously. There are some small roads connecting the forested areas, but those are wide open to FPV drone attacks as well. So if one side "claims" a pocket of forest, they really have to dig in and hope that they aren't discovered.
Skruffy seems to think that the Ukrainians have had some recent success taking control of a few of these little islands, in the southern part. However, it doesn't seem that the UAF have any ability to project northward anymore towards the NPP. They're fighting back and forth over small forest pockets, with the same result - quagmire. It seems more like a guerilla war than anything.
There is one big issue coming soon - winter and trees without leaves. Then those forest pockets become easier to detect and overwhelm with artillery/FPV drones.
I question why Russia hasn't taken out more supply roads into Kursk - seems that would leave these guerillas stranded? Why not bring more troops to bear - I doubt that Ukraine can really do anything about it if they get air-dropped in small groups. Maybe by Helicopter?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 31 2024 20:33 utc | 53
How long until Rheinmetal plant is destroyed?
Posted by: 5jumpchump | Oct 31 2024 13:30 utc | 2
Rheinmetall wants to build four factories in Ukraine. The way I see Putin, the destruction will wait until all four are finished. Would any private entrepreneur take this risk ? As always, german taxpayer must pay.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Oct 31 2024 20:33 utc | 54
Nice discussion by Big Serge at his Substack. Strategic Dissapation indeed.
Posted by: frithguild | Oct 31 2024 20:36 utc | 55
Volunteer production of reactive armour kits for Russian armoured vehicles. At least pretend to understand what the implications of all this are and why I keep posting this sort of non-fictional information.
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/27641
Forwarded from No Passage! (Alex Rodriguez)Dear comrades. On Monday (theoretically, if the tank crew's KamAZ arrives by then) we will ship the next batch of 1,200 Kontakt-1 KDZs (Ed: explosive reactive armour blocks) to the 1st Slavyanskaya. Our debt to production on this account is now exactly 800 thousand (the total amount of the account is 1,019 thousand rubles).
The shipment will take place in any case, but we will have to wait with the order of the next batches. We have the 163rd tank and 1465th infantry regiments next in line.In this video, we are cutting galvanized parts for the assembly of an experimental batch of EDZs.
…
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 31 2024 20:38 utc | 56
@51
"Voenkor (Yuri) Kotenok" (English ~ War Correspondent Kitten) https://t.me/s/voenkorKotenok is an interesting commentator. He is a 'concerned patriot', not a concern troll or 6th columnist or Strelkovist or Prigozhinist. Early in the SMO (2022) he was vocal about corruption in the RF logistics staff, particularly concerning supplies to the Donbass militia. For this he was blasted by supporters of the RF General Staff, especially Andrei Martyanov.
Well, all of the generals Yuri Kotenok was complaining about in 2022 were either fired or arrested in 2024 following Putin's re-election. So Yuri has been vindicated about that, albeit with a 2 year time lag. Despite all the bile spewed by Andrei Martyanov, some Russian Telegram bloggers actually do provide more accurate information than official press releases.
Also Yuri Kotenok has been a critic of RF immigration policy from the 'stans. Recently Dimitry Medvedev has endorsed exactly the changes in RF immigration policy suggested by Yuri. So, again, Yuri looks like a forward thinking critical patriot. I do not lightly dismiss his observations
Posted by: Drifter | Oct 31 2024 20:38 utc | 57
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 31 2024 18:23 utc | 43
Really doubt that they can work without electricity, expecially if we are speaking of centralized heating the size of a block /village.
Natural circulation can work in small houses.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 31 2024 20:47 utc | 58
Speed of advance of russian troops in Ukraine increases – mediaThe russian army of occupation is rapidly advancing in the east of Ukraine. Since the beginning of October, they managed to capture more than 470 square kilometers of Ukrainian territories. These are the biggest gains in the area since March 2022.
It was reported by Welt.
So, according to the media, last week the aggressor rapidly advanced on the battlefield. In total, from October 20 to 27, the russian federation occupied 196 square kilometers. At the same time, the AFP agency, citing data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), found that since the beginning of October, the army of russian terrorists captured 478 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine.
"By October 27, Russian troops captured more territory than in August and September, when the territorial gains amounted to 477 and 459 square kilometers, respectively. In two months, significant shifts have already taken place on the front line, in particular in the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Region around the strategically important city of Pokrovsk," stated Welt journalists.
The journalists also noted that two-thirds of the aggressor's territorial gains in October fell on the Donetsk Region, where the invaders are approaching Pokrovsk from the south and east. At the same time, the Ukrainian army is experiencing difficulties on the Eastern Front in the face of numerically superior and better armed russian soldiers.
"The last time Russian troops succeeded in such an advance was in March 2022, when they advanced on Kyiv. In total, in 2023, they occupied 584 square meters of the territory of Ukraine, the area of occupation as of January 1, 2024 is 2,660 square kilometers. Together with the Crimea annexed in 2014 and the areas of the Donbas, which were already under control before the full-scale Russian offensive, Moscow now controls about 18.2 percent of the territory of Ukraine," the journalists of the publication summarized.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Ukrainian General Dmytro Marchenko stated that due to management errors, lack of ammunition, weapons and people, the situation at the front in the Donetsk Region has worsened. He called it a "collapse of the front".
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1044601-speed-of-advance-of-russian-troops-in-ukraine-increases-media
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 31 2024 21:19 utc | 60
The diminishing/diminished foliage and increasingly soft or muddy ground means all vehicles are more vulnerable to being seen from the air, and from having left tracks that can be followed to wherever they seek concealment. And if out in the open on muddy ground mobility and maneuverability is reduced. The larger the weight to track ratio, the more vulnerable to getting bogged down in mud a vehicle will find itself. Tanks from Britain and the USA will generally be at a comparative mobility disadvantage to their Russian Federation opposite numbers.
The Bradleys will do yeoman's work, but they'll be facing heavy aerial attacks.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 31 2024 21:27 utc | 61
I just read Big Serge's new substack, and it was entertaining and I would say, correct. The incursion into Kursk only hastened Ukraine's demise, and Ukraine is fighting the war expecting a Deus Ex Machina ending.
However, for all the analysis about what Ukraine has done wrong, one major fact is overlooked:
Ukraine had no chance of winning.
The war was over in early 2022.
I played an intense war game for years, with a cult following, and incredibly skilled players.
Many times the battle would start off with one side just demolishing the other. Because of the skills of the defenders, they would eventually counter-attack, retake most if not more than half the mao, and look threatening.
That is when the side who almost win in the beginning would lash out a second time. And eventually destroy, (90% of the time).
In the chat afterward, there would be all kinds of arguing among the losers about why they lost, but rarely, if ever, would they mention the massive nose bloodying they got in the early stages.
There were battles that occured differently, of course, but as I watch this war, it reminds me of this scenario, every step of the way. from big punch to the face, to retreat, to defense, to strengthening, to the stage we are in now, a slow plodding advance.
The advance will continue to plod, until perhaps a risky heroic by Russia, which just collapses everything, like avdiivka x 100.
or ot may plod along until Russia suddenly unleashed a massive, overwhelming offensive, with high casualties both side, but end of war.
Or Russia may advance this slowly all the way to Kiev.
Either way, Ukraine never had a chance.
Posted by: UWDude | Oct 31 2024 21:41 utc | 62
Russia is raising taxes due to war. Now that is important, because it essentially means that the tax increase does not benefit the economy, it brings no value back into the economy. The tax money will be spent on fueling war, not social services.
War economy boosts GDP, but most of it is artificial because the product is blown up on a battlefield with no return on investment. Sure, you get jobs in a factory from a war, but they are all temporary, and when the war ends, the people get laid off. The tanks and shells in storage bring 0 value at peace-time.
Central bank of Russia recently raised interest rates to 21% and there are strong indicators that it will continue to raise them, to maintain war-economy.
Tax rises are good for the economy, if they act as a mechanism to balance the budget of the state. The issue with tax raises is that they compound the issue if there's no return on investment. That's why Russian state keeps rising the key intrest rates, to re-balance the budget towards war (increased % of GDP spent on war), because wars are not profitable (shocker, I know).
Russia is full-steam ahead towards a huge deficit and at some point the bubble will burst. Russia can keep the situation relatively under-control by burning it's money-reserves, but the other shoe will drop eventually when those reserves run dry.
There's a quote from a Chornobyl-series that perfectly, word-for-word describes the state of Russian economy:
Every lie we tell, incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid.
Posted by: Richard K | Oct 31 2024 22:05 utc | 63
because wars are not profitable (shocker, I know).
Posted by: Richard K | Oct 31 2024 22:05 utc | 63
They are if you win.
Donbass and two other Oblasts, maybe more, being part of Russia proper will make up for any economic pain Russia is suffering now.
Not only that, a neutered Ukraine and whimpering NATO will make Russia able to produce what it needs for defense for the next decade, and lessons from victory, while NATO has to keep guessing and take lessons from defeat, which are never very good lessons.
Posted by: UWDude | Oct 31 2024 22:13 utc | 64
Posted by: Richard K | Oct 31 2024 22:05 utc | 63
My usual response to these kinds of posts: Now do Ukraine ...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 31 2024 22:23 utc | 65
My usual response to these kinds of posts: Now do Ukraine ...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 31 2024 22:23 utc | 65
He will never do it.
A new agent provocateur at the bar. He is taking his desires for reality.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 22:34 utc | 66
Willy had some initial results on territory gained. Looks like Oct will be very similar to sep at about 470 kmsq. Maybe slightly higher, but very close. Will not hit the 600 or so needed to show constant acceleration.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 31 2024 22:39 utc | 67
Deep state late today. Maybe hit a Haloween Party.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 31 2024 22:40 utc | 68
Will not hit the 600 or so needed to show constant acceleration.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 31 2024 22:39 utc | 67
Sound like some two-bit day trader trying to sell his short pick.
Picking arbitrary start, arbitrary metric of success and failure, (lol, "constant acceleration), and then talking as if because he used a physical term,"acceleration", then his prediction is as solid as the gravitational constant.
Pathetic cope.
Posted by: UWDude | Oct 31 2024 22:47 utc | 69
Good article by Big Serge on the failed Kursk operation.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/back-to-the-bloodlands-operation
Posted by: Surferket | Oct 31 2024 22:50 utc | 70
It's not new. I've discussed it before. And it's not a be all end all either. Just is what it is. Reflects on the view that attrition is leading to crumbling defense. And the view that even if rate is slow. It is at least growing.
Don't get so triggered. Facts are facts. You don't have to bat a thousand to win either.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 31 2024 23:05 utc | 71
@Richard K #63
Sanctions Notwithstanding, Russia’s Economy Continues to Outperform
October 31, 2024
On October 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest edition of its “World Economic Outlook”. Published twice a year, the report’s October issue confirmed that the organisation expects the Russian economy to grow by 3.6 percent this year, up from the 3.2-percent expansion stated in the preceding edition published in April and also comfortably ahead of the United States (2.8 percent), Germany (0.0 percent), France (1.1 percent) and the United Kingdom (1.1 percent). With Moscow still facing an onslaught of economic sanctions levied against it by Western nations, speculation continues to mount over whether Russia’s economy can continue to withstand this raft of punitive measures and maintain the same growth trajectory over the next few years.
The world’s largest country by area has thus far defied widespread expectations that US- and European Union (EU)-led sanctions would expose key vulnerabilities in the Russian economy. A 3.6-percent growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, for instance, positioned Russia as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies outside of India and China, while the first six months of this year saw it extend those gains with growth for the first and second quarters recorded at 5.4 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.
[...] Given the painful economic headwinds Russia has faced since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in late February 2022, how is this possible? According to Petya Koeva-Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s Research Department, four key factors explain the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of sanctions. “First, oil export volumes have held steady. The second part is that we have seen a lot of strength in corporate investment, including by state‑owned enterprises,” Koeva-Brooks noted during a press briefing for the April edition of the “World Economic Outlook”. “The third is that we have also seen a lot of robustness in private consumption that has underpinned growth. And last, but not least, we have also had the impact from government spending; though there, we have seen much larger increases in security‑related spending than overall spending.”
[...] “We are assessing the rate of economic growth this year more optimistically than we assessed it in April. Now we believe that real GDP growth will amount to about 3.9 percent, which is fairly high and higher than last year,” a Ministry spokesman confirmed. “For the subsequent years, we forecast some slowdown in real economic growth. This is foremost because the tightening of monetary conditions on the part of the Bank of Russia will kick in one way or the other. But, nonetheless, GDP growth rates will remain positive and amount to a quite respectable 2.5 percent [in 2025].”
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 31 2024 23:20 utc | 72
Either way, Ukraine never had a chance.
Posted by: UWDude | Oct 31 2024 21:41 utc | 62
Just read big serge (always a pleasure) , but let me state something he left unsaid.
Yes, AFU never had a chance, unless RF called uncle, RF went not half cocked, but with barely a foreskin.
Afu should have folded and run into terrorism, but they didn't and too much coke made Z hallucinate. Bojo helped the delusion.
They then failed to taake instambul.
And then the most dangerous choice for RF... putin chooses to go partial mobilization, 300k+convicts
Too little to impact society and barely enough to hold (and i'd bet many sleepless nights)
Fuck, putin has brass balls and it was then that it was shown.
Then the military did their thing and the defense line for in depth defense held at the first line... AFU was finished, from then on it was irrelevant if it was 1991 borders or whatever, AFU was thoroughly fucked and finished.
Now let us state this clearly, just now is RF numerically even with AFU.
Yes, brutal imbalance in air power and artillery, not clear in drones but near parity.
Now as serge says, it all depends on what RF wants the play to be played.
As for kursk it should be named the mother of all fuck ups and an example of what NEVER to do.
AFU went , maybe 80% of an SMO start, and only got bruised ass-hole to show. BTW bravo to the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade, it's been weeks that without rotation they seem to be the single-handedly destroying critical point after critical point of the AFU in kursk (can't even understand how they go on, casualties per action must be minimal given all the frays they went into)
I will end up with something I mentioned earlier, nato would be crazy to consider thinking about contemplating entering this fight. RF could, ceteris paribus, keep up, not the 20 years someone mentioned, but 80 years at this level.
And that's about as much as i want to say right now, maybe end by stating that regardless of what some didn't like, the current stage is dr. pimple popper, AFU zits are being squeezed and blood and pus come out. that and that the vovcha river line cannot hold without provosk, and that the moment RF climbs the E105 to zaporizhzhya then the mother of all zits/cauldrons will be closed.
Fire away if you don't agree :D
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2024 23:30 utc | 73
Vargas?
Vargas is a form of Ukrainian AI. Known as NVI. Not Very.
Meanwhile AI has been tasked with finding an infinite, costless form of electricity. But when I asked AI, it answered first, provide me with an infinite, costless amount of electricity to receive an answer.
AI. Plagiarism and Tautology, copying the ideas of others shamelessly and without attribution.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 31 2024 23:32 utc | 74
Posted by: Surferket | Oct 31 2024 22:50 utc | 70
While I am certainly no great admirer of the Kiev regime, I cannot help but doubt the willingness of the Ukrainian government to intentionally create a radiological disaster which would irradiate much of their own country along with swathes of central Europe,...
I think that he still has a lot of illusions about the ukronazis. He forgot that the ukronazis already targeted a NPP, for instance the Zaporozhe one. And that there was at least one attempt to hit the Kursk NPP. He forgot about blackmail possibilities too. And that the policy of the ukronazis is to destroy what they are obliged to leave behind.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 23:49 utc | 75
It’s not so much territory per se that matters, but the strategic and economic value of areas taken by the RF.
I’ll take Ugledar, Toresk, and Pokrovsk (hasn’t happened yet but it’s now in artillery range) over some farmers field or a tiny village in Kursk.
Russia still seems very risk averse though. I suspect there is a creative way to accelerate gains that hasn’t been tried due to fear of losses in manpower.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 31 2024 23:54 utc | 76
RF could, ceteris paribus, keep up, not the 20 years someone mentioned, but 80 years at this level.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2024 23:30 utc | 73
This someone is no other than Lavrov. Why did you not tell his name?
Posted by: Naive | Oct 31 2024 23:54 utc | 77
I'm reminded of another nation that went all-in on spending to win its war. That was the United States in WWII, fighting the Nazi 1.0 menace as well as the Imperial Army of Japan, and holy heck did it reap the economic benefits afterwards.
Foreign investors in China, India, and elsewhere know the incredible mineral, precious metal, and oil and gas reserves of Russia, as well as it vast fertile farmlands, and its skilled, healthy, well educated and motivated, workforce. The only ones who don't want in on it are those prohibited from doing so by their governments.
Russia won't be like Germany or France or Britain after WWI, it will be more like America was after both that war and the next. Surging, while other nations are reeling under the governance of corrupt elites. Though the United States is far from yet having come close to its peak, and its best days could easily still be in the future. Incredible opportunities in America compared to what's available in Europe.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 31 2024 23:55 utc | 78
@Richard K
Let's pivot to China
What’s Behind China’s Gold-Buying Spree?
August 14, 2024
[...]
So, what’s behind this China-led gold-buying fever, then? J.P. Morgan identified several factors motivating investors to boost their exposures, which, in turn, have been driving global demand and sending prices higher. “Amid fraying geopolitics, increased sanctioning, and de-dollarisation, we observe an increased appetite to buy real assets, including gold,” Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan, recently remarked.
Indeed, the PBoC’s sizeable gold acquisitions could be seen in the context of its efforts to replace its US-dollar holdings. This is being carried out against a grim backdrop of rising tensions with the US, including an escalating trade war and US-led sanctions against China and Russia, all triggering a dramatic deterioration in relations between the economic superpowers. In response, China has been aggressively selling off its holdings of US Treasury securities as it seeks to effectively substitute its massive quantities of dollar reserves for more gold and ultimately boost the diversification of its reserves. While early 2022 saw China sitting on more than $1 trillion of US Treasuries, those holdings had dwindled to $768.30 billion by May 2024, as per official US government figures.
“The main motivation of the PBOC is to be less dependent on the US dollar and—in an extreme case—to be less susceptible to US sanctions,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke recently told Reuters. Menke said he expected China’s desire to diversify its reserves to persist, as “the geopolitical tensions between China and the United States are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, independent of the outcome of the US presidential elections”.
China’s expedited de-dollarisation efforts are also being driven by its commitments to BRICS+, the global economic group of emerging economies founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that recently added Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to its list of members. This expanding bloc has been clear about its desire to not only unleash new opportunities for trade and investment among its member nations but also to almost exclusively utilise local currencies in bilateral trade at the expense of the US dollar.
Ongoing discussions of a BRICS currency that is backed by gold may also explain the fervent buying trends of the precious metal in recent years.
https://internationalbanker.com/banking/whats-behind-chinas-gold-buying-spree/#comment-953596
The times they are a changing Richard ...
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 31 2024 23:56 utc | 79
Yeah Ukraine never had a chance. That's why Russia screwed up at Kiev, Kherson, and Kharkov. To handicap themselves.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 1 2024 0:22 utc | 80
@ karlof1 | Oct 31 2024 15:08 utc | 16
further to karls comment from marat -
Brief report from the front, October 31, 2024
The Russian army is actively attacking! By Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Posted by: james | Oct 31 2024 15:30 utc | 20
Thank you James and Karlof1. Very good stuff.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Nov 1 2024 0:40 utc | 81
20 Sept 2024
The 20th Annual Meeting of Yalta European Strategy (YES) - THE NECESSITY TO WIN was held on September 13 – 14, 2024 in Kyiv. Discussion panel "Global Axis of Evil – Do We Have a Strategy?"
Niall Ferguson, calls it "the axis of ill will".
https://youtu.be/Q1vwq3PzfII?si=Jv_qaSBpBRDlnphu&t=208 @ 3:30 minutes
Posted by: Michael | Nov 1 2024 0:51 utc | 82
Michael | Nov 1 2024 0:51 utc | 82
Ah Niall Ferguson, living proof you can make a successful academic career in the West composing additional stanzas for 'The White Man's Burden'!
Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 1 2024 1:01 utc | 83
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 1 2024 0:22 utc | 80
By that logic, the Allies really “screwed up” in Dunkirk when they retreated back to England, saving countless soldiers to fight another day.
Of the three you cite, only Kharkiv was any sort of military victory for Ukraine. The other two were reasonable moves after the objective facts suggested that continued occupation of territories (or on the case of Kiev, a feint since entry into the city never happened) was not going to end well.
Russia has made mistakes (as did the other military powers like England in WWII) but in the end it is who prevails to see the war through that matters.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 1 2024 1:02 utc | 84
Unfortunately only in German...With Lieutenant Colonel of the Reserve Rauschenberger, who was the longest serving Bundeswehr officer in Afghanistan.
https://www.youtube.com/live/1PN8eF8Zy6g?si=_0ALzzsv8o65Wkh6
Posted by: Larsbo | Nov 1 2024 1:04 utc | 85
Posted by: guest | Oct 31 2024 19:53 utc | 49
Some of us speculated loudly from the start Kursk was an invitation, one foolishly taken up by a credulous enemy, convinced of their own superiority. Of course, you couldn't admit it politically, but effective it has truly been in smashing the remnants of the neonazi war machine. Many laughed at the suggestion. Seems less so now, eh?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Nov 1 2024 1:12 utc | 87
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 31 2024 23:55 utc | 78
#############
Much of America's post-WW2 "success" was a byproduct of debt and Bretton Woods.
It was built on quicksand, the typical American use of BS and delusion. The USD is a Ponzi scheme where the debt can never be repaid, only serviced by issuing more debt to the next round of vassals and suckers.
It has taken decades but the inevitable unraveling has begun, which could have been avoided if the USGov had any discipline not to use sanctions against Russia AND China. Once the world realized trading in USD was toxic, and had the militaries to keep them from being taken out like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, they had no choice but to work to restructure their powerful economies to abandon the dollar, bringing a few friends with them in BRICS.
3 years from now, if the Brazilians and Indians don't mess it up, every country big and small will have an opportunity to escape American debt traps and sanctions for good.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 1 2024 1:42 utc | 88
Yeah Ukraine never had a chance. That's why Russia screwed up at Kiev, Kherson, and Kharkov. To handicap themselves.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 1 2024 0:22 utc | 80
It was an effort, but futile.
Proof is in the results. At no time did Ukraine have a chance, best they could do was push Russia back, but they never had a chance to win.
Take Crimea back?
Their are large parts of Donbass they could never get into.... ...ever. LoL. Any attempts to were dismal failures, beyond dismal. Laughable failures.
Also, can we just be real?
Ukraine could never beat Russia. LoL, it was obvious from the start. Never.
Puny Ukraine vs bear mother fucking Russia.
And from day one, I had no doubt, and still no doubt, Russia will win, AND Russia will get EVERYTHING it wants
Period.
Again, at the outset, Russia vs Ukraine. A whole bunch pf bullshit was spewed about how weak Russia was to build a case for Ukraine having a chance, when every casual observer cpuld see Russia would win. Like watching a bear tangle with a doe, and people saying bears are not that powerful and a doe's kick could kill a bear if in the right place in the fave.
Ukraine having a chance was just people lying to themselves, when the truth was evident from the start.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 1 2024 1:47 utc | 89
...Russia screwed up at Kiev, Kherson, and Kharkov. To handicap themselves...
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 1 2024 0:22 utc | 80
He keeps saying that he does not push only pro-Ukie drivel, but sometimes he can't contain himself and the truth that he is a pro-Ukie troll becomes evident.
Posted by: Rutte | Nov 1 2024 2:01 utc | 90
MoA fetishizes some vague abstraction of a Russian "victory" over Ukraine that will never be realized and was only ever motivated by their hatred of American imperialism. Struggling to see that Putin's "limited military action" has decimated his country's own economic, demographic, and military capacity for the next 20 years in a run up to the "real" conflict with China shows this board's somewhat limited understanding of how warfare has changed since WW2. Russia will be occupying a hollowed out, economically useless Ukraine that will take decades to provide any real value...meanwhile it will also be decades of Iraq-style insurgency funded by NATO.
Acquiring territory, even for some sort of "buffer zone" always hinged on the Russian belief that NATO wants to invade Russia, which isn't true and never was. NATO has zero interest in the Russian wasteland, or governing the Russian people. They wanted Russian resources, and the oligarchs have shown endless willingness to sell that out to Europe and US interests, which was always Putin's biggest hurdle in creating a new (relevant) Russian state. He had to promise realpolitik victories but miscalculated in Ukraine.
And to what end? Not collapse - obviously, but to a Russia so weak that their contributions to an inevitable future conflict with China will be limited and manageable. Putin's bid to stay relevant and fulfill the promises of his multi-decade rule will make him and Russia irrelevant for the next 40-50 years.
Posted by: Raidicus | Nov 1 2024 2:12 utc | 91
Oh look, a new disruptive troll with a new handle.
There will be no insurgency. Guerrilla war is a young man’s game and Ukraine is a demographic shithole for the foreseeable future. All the good men have fled or bled out in Kursk, Bakhmut, Avdeyevka, etc.
The West will throw Ukraine away like a used condom. Russia will rebuild in the Donbas and enjoy the natural resources they’ve taken while NATO clowns gag on their own propaganda.
Warfare has changed but it’s not Russia that’s failed to adapt. NATO is a dead alliance and incapable of fighting the new ways of warfare. Their overpriced and underperforming weapons do support a lot of trust funds and Tesla purchases in Virginia, though.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 1 2024 2:26 utc | 92
Not collapse - obviously, but to a Russia so weak that their contributions to an inevitable future conflict with China will be limited and manageable. Putin's bid to stay relevant and fulfill the promises of his multi-decade rule will make him and Russia irrelevant for the next 40-50 years.
Posted by: Raidicus | Nov 1 2024 2:12 utc | 91
LoL.
inevitable conflict with China. Pure fucking delusion.
LoL "Russia will come out weak"
Once Russia is finished with taking EVERYTHING it wants, is when the real pain starts for NATO. That's when the blame game starts. That's when this illusory united front shows itself as the fractured shit show it is. It's twenty more years of spiral down for the west as China AND Russia leave them on the dirt with their obese, immigration fractured societies and cultures and their drug popping populace worshipping pop stars.
Its twenty more years of blaming Russia for deindustrialization and tanking economies and ever rising costs of energy. (Think pothitively! wethtern economeeth will thurely rebound thoon).
No, no they wont. And all your positive vibes and lies you tell yourself will not change the coming reality.
Its twenty more years of all the leaders who lost the war to fail upwards, and become even more popular, more influential, and even bigger failures than they are now, making even more catastrophic mistakes than thinking they could just snatch Ukraine from mother fucking bear Russia.
Wrong, wrong wrong bitches! Reality is a motherfucker.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 1 2024 2:27 utc | 93
value...meanwhile it will also be decades of Iraq-style insurgency funded by NATO.
Posted by: Raidicus | Nov 1 2024 2:12 utc | 91
Pure American fantasy based on what they "learned" from Vietnam. Will not happen. Ukraine is nothing like Vietnam. Nor is Americans in ancient Mesopotamia anything like Russians back in old Russia.
Just more total western fantasy concocted from the denial of who they are, and why they lose wars, and why their hearts and minds campaigns never succeed after they fail to be showered with candies and sweets.
I love to listen to the demons cry.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 1 2024 2:35 utc | 94
DS Map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.8861925/37.3936844
Another strong day, by the RFA, racking up territory: 33 kmsq (versus SEP pace of 16/day).
S to N:
1. 24 kmsq near Novoukrainske. Little it to the W, some more to the N. But mostly pocket-filling to the E.
2. 0.5 kmsq down a treeline, to N of Kostianivka. Not quite clear the ojective, although perhap, it's to form/close a pocket with (3, below).
3. 7 kmsq W of Pobiedeba. Lot of gray conversion, but gray moved and was chatter about an advance, so think it is not just cope concession. Also, it's a complicated polygon and extends along the road leading towards Kurakhove for a stretch. Not a new salient, but protecting the road flank. This could lead to a second (from the south) vector of attack on K-town.
4. 0.5 kmsq S of Maksymilianivka. Not noteworthy, but makes sense as part of shaping the approach to K-town.
5. 0.5 kmsq NW of Maksy. (Same implications as (4).)
6. 0.5 kmsq E of Novodmytrivka. Seems like a new vector of attack, but not moving too fast for now.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 1 2024 3:40 utc | 95
More than a half of all the budget expenses are now connected to the war. Only the direct payments to contracted soldiers and compensations for wounds and deaths are now over RUB3trln per year, which is more than healthcare and education combined.
But it is not the main factor of course. Production of the weapons and ammo is the only sector which is on a rise in the economy. The government spends trillions of Rubles on that, only to send it to Ukraine where all it is being used and so gone. So, the economy doesn't see any multiplicative effect of this production, only money, spent for it, go to the market.
So the salaries in the MIC are growing, pulling up the salaries in the other sectors, and so increasing the production costs, while war money are poured to the local markets, and it all makes prices grow. Thus, the inflation.
Of course, such giant sums cannot be compensated by the GDP growth (as we said, it is only in the MIC), so the federal budget has a deficit which grows every year. This deficit cannot be compensated by both the external borrowings (because of sanctions) AND internal borrowings (investors see the inflation and refuse to buy Gov. bonds with less than 18% interest, and the government can't give those 18% because of too much percent payments).
So the only possibility is to get money from the National Wealth Fund, which is almost depleted now (less than $50mlrd left, and the PLANNED budget deficit for this year is over RUb3trln).
In the next year the only possible option for the government will be an unsecured emission.
Posted by: dmitry redkin | Nov 1 2024 4:06 utc | 96
"Voenkor (Yuri) Kotenok" (English ~ War Correspondent Kitten) https://t.me/s/voenkorKotenok is an interesting commentator.
Posted by: Drifter | Oct 31 2024 20:38 utc | 57
He's also a veteran and was a Russian soldier experienced in at least one war, maybe more. He's in his early or mid-fifties I think. So he is a military reporter.
And you are right that he pointed out Russian weaknesses and dangers from Ukraine forces near the beginning of the war when people on Saker's forum and Saker himself were saying that the war was already won and Ukraine's military was destroyed.
He points out the reality of the situation which many people here won't accept, and that's why they keep underestimating Ukraine and keep saying over the years that Ukraine will soon collapse. Yet it doesn't.
The war is mainly just in the far Southeast corner of Ukraine, and Ukraine is a very large country.
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 1 2024 4:09 utc | 97
Ukraine is a very large country.
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 1 2024 4:09 utc | 97
Not compared to Russia.
also, raidicus, radkin and richard k. Bet we'll never see a couple of these socks ever again.
Posted by: UWDude | Nov 1 2024 4:28 utc | 98
At this point you have to ask why they keep pushing this meme at Reuters main page
US says 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk
The United States has received information that indicates that "right now" there are 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood told the Security Council.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 1 2024 5:18 utc | 99
Posted by: dmitry redkin | Nov 1 2024 4:06 utc | 96
All this might be true insofar as it goes. But, so what. There's a reason that the top marginal tax rate in the US peaked at 94% at the end of WWII and the national debt at 110 percent of GDP. Big wars cost big bucks. Russia actually still has a long way to go before they reach that level of commitment to the war. As far as I know, no one in the US was calling for a surrender to Japan on the basis that the war was too expensive, and I really can't see the Russians surrendering to the Ukrainians on that basis either.
Posted by: OnceWere | Nov 1 2024 5:45 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Thoughts?
Russian units in Kaliningrad may be preparing sabotage in Baltic states and Poland
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/30/7482182/
UK, Germany To Arm Ukraine's Sea King Helicopters With Latest Missiles
https://thedefensepost.com/2024/10/30/uk-ukraines-sea-king/
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Oct 31 2024 13:24 utc | 1