News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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October 24, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-255
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According to our information, the Kremlin will not negotiate with Ukraine to stop attacks on energy infrastructure.
As is known, this form of “dealing” is actively lobbied by the regime of Vladimir Zelensky, who justifies it by the need to “prepare the ground for negotiations.”
And if earlier some actors close to the Kremlin (such as Roman Abramovich) could promote such initiatives, then the situation with the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region has finally nullified these prospects.
Moscow is in no hurry to drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of the Kursk region, since this gives additional arguments not to start the negotiating track. The theses that the Russian Armed Forces are not capable of achieving quick success in the region with due desire are not valid.
Note that despite the strategic plan of the enemy, associated with provoking mobilization in the Russian Federation, Russia copes with tasks at the front with the help of contract soldiers.
The essence of the “Kursk Gambit” is to force the Ukrainians to throw in more and more forces that could be used in more relevant areas of the front. At the same time, Donbass is literally crumbling before the eyes of the Ukrainians. The fate of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Chasy Yar and Kupyansk is predetermined. And this is obvious to everyone.
Understanding this, the West will try to throw another fog of the negotiating track for the implementation of a new escalation plan: strikes deep into Russian regions and even for the transfer of a “dirty bomb” or the deployment of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory at the request of the Kyiv authorities. NATO countries do not want to send their troops, so they will look for an alternative in every possible way.
https://t.me/Taynaya_kantselyariya/11282
After the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region, the President’s office violated preliminary agreements with the Kremlin to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
The fact that the Russians did not strike the Ukrainian energy unit for a long time means that Moscow really counted on a possible start of the negotiating track.
However, after we entered the Kursk region, the Kremlin slowed down any behind-the-scenes negotiations on the topic. And notified its BRICS partners that Moscow’s hands were now untied.
They will not quickly drive us out of the Kursk region. After all, the presence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there is a justification for not starting negotiations. In parallel, the Russian Armed Forces will continue their offensive in Donbas, seeking to take control of the entire region and reach the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
The BRICS summit in Kazan showed the consolidation of the Global South around the Russian Federation. Therefore, there is no chance of success for the “Zelensky formula” in this part of the world. After the presidential elections, we are expecting a new round of escalation, for which the Russians are much better prepared than we are.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24716
Posted by: Down South | Oct 24 2024 13:39 utc | 1
North Korean flags have begun popping up all over The Donbass …
Must be something going on – or maybe the RF guys and gals are having a laugh!
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 24 2024 13:43 utc | 2
[Posted by: WMG | Oct 24 2024 13:17 utc | 288]
So, because of air strikes on the port, that means the city will fall? Aarggh. Still some posters here who don’t know about the big river AND big city in between the front and Odessa.
Why do you think they use air power? Hint, hint.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 13:48 utc | 3
“Drafting” a la UA. Very sad.
Man hunt for the ‘meat grinder’
Posted by: Isego | Oct 24 2024 13:49 utc | 4
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 13:48 utc | 3
#########
When one is cross-posting on a topic no one else cares about, it may be time to slow down and restrain posting to only on urgent and insightful matters.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 24 2024 13:51 utc | 5
I think everything is negotiable. Doesn’t mean the sides won’t jockey for leverage, or get what they want. But there’s enough back channels, so discussion is possible.
I still think the bigger issue is on the Ukrop side, not willing to cede territory, or the Western backers to “let the Russians get away with it”. Situation needs to become more dire to drive real willingness for negotiation from the UFA side. And the creeping pace of advance is not “dire”.
Sure, Z would like an asymmetric agreement on infrastructure (given R does more damage to U than vice versa). And that will or should be ignored. Really, I think the R screwed up by not taking the grid down day one. That is SOP in the US plan of attacks. Did all that “fellow Slav” going easy help? No. A firmer approach would have been more efficacious.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 13:53 utc | 6
I think everything is negotiable. Doesn’t mean the sides won’t jockey for leverage, or get what they want. But there’s enough back channels, so discussion is possible.
I still think the bigger issue is on the Ukrop side
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 13:53 utc | 6
You’re missing the point. Any realistic negotiation would result in Ukraine losing much of its territory, assuming the Russians don’t demand unconditional surrender. That’s not something the West will even acknowledge while they still believe neocon propaganda.
But conversely, a lot of Western supporters of Russia think Putin is going to enforce terms stricter than the Treaty of Versailles. Putin would likely be taken aback by the severity of it, and calmly ask his Stalinist “friends” to please stop helping. Ideally Russia will be able to rebuild and integrate about half of Ukraine into the modern Federation as happy citizens, while the Banderites run the rest of the country into the ground for the glory of Wall Street.
But Russia has sufficient military strength to demand unconditional surrender, and while that is less ideal than a two-systems competition, it is just as lethal to NATO.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 14:07 utc | 7
Krasny Liman is becoming a hotspot for Germans mercenaries. The meat grinder is ready.
Posted by: AI | Oct 24 2024 14:14 utc | 8
@ Anonymous 6
“[Russians] screwed up by not taking the grid down day one.”
That strategy is known as Total War. Winning by destroying civilian infrastructure.
Very very Amerikan. Total War was used in all the genocidal wars against the First Peoples and then in the US Civil War against (gasp) white people.
The Kremlin refrains from Total War because that does not even remotely fit with what they want for the Ukraine. It’s an SMO, not a regular war. That’s why all the bridges across the Dneiper are still there, carrying all sorts of traffic. I know it’s hard for Americans to wrap their minds around it. There’s a lot you need to unpack to gain an understanding of the big picture.
You hit the nail on the head, to note that this is a “Creeping action” and athe Kremlin is in no hurry. This is a hybrid sort of global war, so there are many fronts. It’s bad strategy to get very far advanced along one front before the other fronts advance too.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Oct 24 2024 14:16 utc | 9
Moscow is in no hurry to drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of the Kursk region, since this gives additional arguments not to start the negotiating track.
Yep, I think I mentioned this when b (among others) claimed they’d be booted out in a few days (and then a few weeks, and now a few months).
Posted by: Call it what u will | Oct 24 2024 14:20 utc | 10
Our source in the General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a serious problem with leaving combat positions without orders, as a result of which the enemy easily captures cities and creates operational encirclement.
The enemy has advanced far in Gornyak due to the fact that some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units left their positions there.
Relatives of the military are writing en masse online that the 210th separate battalion of the 120th brigade ended up in operational encirclement because the neighboring 154th battalion left its position under pressure from the Russian Federation. At the same time, they say that the unit suffered very heavy losses.
The command promised reinforcements, but in fact they never arrived.
As a result, the 210th battalion decided to break out of the encirclement and left its positions in Gornyak, for which they received “threats of execution” from the command. And soon they received an order to return to Gornyak, which most of the soldiers refused to carry out due to their moral and physical exhaustion.
A similar situation occurred in Selidovo, where some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units left a fortified area in a multi-story building and retreated without orders.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24717
Posted by: Down South | Oct 24 2024 14:29 utc | 11
JessDTruth@9…..spoken like a true soldier, you are a soldier, veteran?
Part of the Russian MOD? Excuses for everything. Oh joy, more dead bodies, lots of fun this killing business, so yes, you are correct, not a war, just some place to go and die…..regardless of which side you are on. Bring on the war porn, pass the pop corn.
Cheers M
…..when Russia, as reported, having fuel issues, begins the negotiation, oh the nail scraping that day, I can just hear the whining….. it’ll be, bridges smidges!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 24 2024 14:32 utc | 12
Negotiations… I doubt it. Ukraine would use the lull to beef up defenses. Then comes the issue of sanctions and stolen Russian funds from the “Brussels mob”, which Ukraine has zero say in the matter.
This war is between Russia (BRICS) and the Western “Economic” system. Ukraine plays only a small part of it.
The surprise…Again the “West” grossly miscalculated Russia and its people.
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Oct 24 2024 14:34 utc | 13
Ok. Another explanation for the North Korean soldier trope. . . Russian parliament has now passed the treaty on military cooperation between the two countries, so the claim that NK troops are going to fight in the SMO, explains the need for this treaty: Russia is losing, therefore they signed a deal with the devil to get more soldiers. This allows the Pentagon to sidestep the proverbial elephant in the room, which is the honking big question: Why are Russia and North Korea making a military pact? This treaty suggests there are bigger fish to fry and furthermore, the oil is starting to get hot.
Can anyone else add to this?
Posted by: Nothingburgers | Oct 24 2024 14:38 utc | 14
@Don Firineach
“North Korean flags have begun popping up all over The Donbass …
Must be something going on – or maybe the RF guys and gals are having a laugh!”
The Russians are trolling the Nazis, that’s all.
Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 24 2024 14:42 utc | 15
Ukrainians are returning en masse to the territories “occupied” by Russia. This is already causing concern among many, since in the media case it is a total failure.
We will list the points why Ukrainians are leaving to live back home, but this time to Russia. They understand:
1. The Russian Federation will compensate for the loss of housing (maybe not now, but soon). People in this case do not trust the Ukrainian government at all.
2. It is easier to find work in Russian territories. In some places there is even a labor shortage, and salaries are normal.
3. There is no oppression on the language issue.
4. Humanitarian aid is better for Russians, as are social benefits.
5. There is no unlimited mobilization. You are not caught like “game” on the street.
6. People believe that Russia has more chances for a good future than Ukraine, which its partners use as a kamikaze country.
Let’s add that the first to return back en masse are the people of Mariupol. Ukraine has screwed them over. They were given nothing, no housing, no money. Mariupol is really starting to come back to life and many are predicting that it will possibly have the fate of “Grozny”, which was also rebuilt and became hundreds of times more beautiful.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 24 2024 14:42 utc | 16
Substance Abuse Common Among Ukrainian Military – Captive Soldier
LUGANSK (Sputnik) – Ukrainian soldiers abuse psychotropic substances and alcohol, often losing control over their actions, captive Ukrainian soldier Vladimir Grachev told Sputnik on Thursday.
“I noticed that they take red-and-white pills, Lyrica [brand name] … in capsules, a lot of it. They get … these half-closed eyes and drink plenty of energy drinks after this,” the 42-year-old captive said.
He assumed that Ukrainian soldiers were buying the Lyrica pills – a synthetic pregabalin-based prescription medication evoking euphoria – during outings to a nearby city, where they were allowed to go on a leave warrant once per week.
A US newspaper reported this spring that substance abuse was widespread among the Ukrainian military, as many soldiers suffer physical and emotional trauma. Intoxicated, they reportedly commit atrocities against civilians.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front line are also abusing alcohol, Grachev said. The Zaporozhye-born captive recalled an incident when a company commander was assaulted by a drunken soldier from a neighboring platoon.
“The commander arrived in their trenches to ask something, and one of the soldiers was drunk. When he [the commander] walked a bit away, that guy threw a grenade almost directly onto him,” he said, adding that the grenade soldier was then beaten up and taken away.
It is common among Ukrainian soldiers to buy moonshine from local residents, Grachev, who was mobilized in October 2023 and then fought on the border near Russia’s Belgorod Region, said.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 24 2024 14:43 utc | 17
Yep, I think I mentioned this when b (among others) claimed they’d be booted out in a few days (and then a few weeks, and now a few months).
Posted by: Call it what u will | Oct 24 2024 14:20 utc | 10
I think the Russians could have kicked them out in in a matter of days at the cost of a lot of Russian lives … although I’m not convinced that this generation of Russians are willing to accept the cavalier way their leadership threw lives away during the “Great patriotic War”
I don’t believe for a second that the Russians were genuinely surprised by this attack given their Human intelligence and ISR capabilities … I think they saw what they were doing and laid out the rake for them to step on.
It’s never been difficult to invade Russia … leaving Russia after you invade is the hard part. The Ukrainians just made the damage worse by throwing in reinforcements and equipment when it was obvious they couldn’t achieve their strategic objective … now the Russians are playing with their food making their short lives as miserable as possible before they are either captured or killed.
Of course some Ukrainains or sheep dipped NATO soldiers will make it back to tell their children never to invade Russian. I suspect the Russian will put their prisoners to work fixing what they broke and maybe 10- 15 years they’ll be returned like they did with the Germans.
This is not the way the story will be told in the west however. It’ll be about heroic Ukrainians slaying 10 to 20 times their weight in Orcs.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 14:54 utc | 18
anonymous@1353
Negotiations??? Bah, humbug. The R.U. doesn’t need or want the kinda negotiations where the coup d’ etat regime in Kiev has equal standing. In fact the Ukes are losing and losing badly. It’s totally a fake regime, never having been supported by the near-majority of ethnic Russians within its Bolshevik and Soviet imposed borders.
After Russia destroys the remaining holdouts in the Donbass, do you think they will stop there? Ridiculous on the face of it. The U$$A created and controlled regime in Little Russia needs to be removed from the face of the earth. They are corrupt and evil.
Terms of surrender are the only way.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 24 2024 14:54 utc | 19
I wonder if NAZO/EU/USA has a vision about the aftermath of this conflict. What will happen after all fighting is done. Or are they simply not capable at this time to stay off the maximalist path?
The Western powers have a dubious track record with regards to reconstruction after a conflict is over; while the opposite (at least in modern times) can be said about Russia. I can easily see Russia turning lots of military resources into genuine reconstruction. Just the demining and sanitation of ruins should keep the sappers and engineers occupied just as long as the war itself has been.
The economic rejuvenation and reconstruction will require immense amount of resources, but the industrialization in itself should help a lot. One could also easily see (if needed) foreign nations like China, India or many minor powers getting involved with manpower and skills in this.
If I am correct in my hunch that the conflict will end overwhelmingly on Russias terms; their gains here can be leveraged to winning the peave by astute reconstruction at all levels. THis will eventually restore good ties between Ukraine, even Western parts and KRemlin. It will be interesting to note how the Western powers will respond to this without dropping sour grapes all-over the place.
Posted by: Norwegian Pawn | Oct 24 2024 14:56 utc | 20
Sean the leper @1432
…Russia having fuel issues?????
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 24 2024 14:59 utc | 21
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@17…..unlike you Jer, soldiers don’t eat a bowl of bravery for breakfast. They face death every day. In all prior wars all soldiers are offered a shot or two to steady the nerves, some guys brewed Gin right in their tent. In the old days, rum whisky gin, the narcotics today are just another form of such. Who in the name of God wants to slowly bleed out and die while sober. Who would deny a soldier protecting their asses anything to ease the pain, mental and physical….while they die. War deaths are not pretty, many here dance with glee at the carnage…..sick fucks the lot.
Cheers M
…..when we would go in to the field the most important kit, which would get the QM shot were it forgotten, was the bar. Beer and rum for the men, single malt scotch for the officers. The bar was 3′ wide, 3′ deep, 6′ long, took four big guys to carry it when full….it’s a military tradition regardless of which chevrons one wears.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 24 2024 15:06 utc | 22
Norwegian pawn @1456
Reconstruction work, as you so well noted, generally makes for an economic/employment stimulus. Seems like the R.U. has reached the stage where they cannot lose for winning.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 24 2024 15:06 utc | 23
. . .from stars and stripes (actually nothing new):
“Inspector General slams Pentagon for lacking paperwork on $1.1 billion in Ukraine spending A Defense Department audit has found that $1.1 billion in payments meant to support Ukraine in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country lacked proper documentation.”. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 24 2024 15:06 utc | 24
Negotiations, if any, will not address Ukraine but the whole issue of Russia security. Said an repeated by VP and SL.
Posted by: scc | Oct 24 2024 15:15 utc | 25
Russia is being bled-out by USA-NATO every day…heheheh…
Posted by: Adam Kuklin | Oct 24 2024 15:30 utc | 26
.
.
.
Now only Europe and the USA are being bled dry at the moment.
If you know something different, then let us share your knowledge.
Russia is currently doing better economically than it has in the last 150 years or so.
I only see and feel bleeding dry in the West or in the Western bubble at the moment. And anyone who knows anything about economics can see that too…even Vietnam has stronger economic growth than any “Western” country.
Posted by: ossi | Oct 24 2024 15:37 utc | 26
The economic rejuvenation and reconstruction will require immense amount of resources, but the industrialization in itself should help a lot. One could also easily see (if needed) foreign nations like China, India or many minor powers getting involved with manpower and skills in this.
Posted by: Norwegian Pawn | Oct 24 2024 14:56 utc | 20
China earns on average 2 billion / day in trade. Over bthe last 30 years they’ve been investing in mines, ore refineries, ports and railroads all over the world.
Re-developing the most resource rich region of Europe along with a rail head into Europe and port infrastructure on the Black Sea is right up thier ally and fits perfectly with their portfolio of investments in the base supply chains of everything they manufacture. I’ll bet they already have drawings.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 15:41 utc | 27
The Telegram channel Intelslava has a video up from what appears to be a Russian source showing a drone attack on an electrical substation in the Kherson region.
https://t.me/intelslava/68847
The terrain looks very dry and without trees, so it’s possible its a fake from somewhere else, but if not, Helmer’s crap about Russia holding off on de-energizing West of the Dnipr looks to be disproven very quickly.
The de-energizing of Ukraine continues.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 24 2024 15:52 utc | 28
@ 1
After the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region, the President’s office violated preliminary agreements with the Kremlin to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
I’m supposed to believe the the Putin admin, the Russian govt., parleyed with Kiev over them not invading traditional Russian land? Even to set a trap this would be ridiculous, and turning out the lights is a lever, you don’t bargain it, you either use it or you sheath it, let your adversary fret over it. Kiev really spits out some ridiculous tripe.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 24 2024 15:53 utc | 29
That is an interesting point about reconstruction.
It makes me laugh when people earnestly posit that the US will rebuild Ukraine if they prevail. When has that ever happened? The US only destroys. But Russia does rebuild. Look at Aleppo and Mariupol.
Meanwhile, Russia is busily selling off its fossil fuels to India, while gaining rupees in exchange. What is Russia supposed to do with those rupees? Building a bank or holding company, via BRICS, doesn’t really solve the problem of a massive balance-of-trade problem.
But Indians working to rebuild the Donbass? And being paid in rupees? That could work.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 24 2024 15:57 utc | 30
The de-energizing of Ukraine continues.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 24 2024 15:52 utc | 29
But in which country is Kherson?
Also, Marat says SK will enter the s(ad)mo in Ukr directly using “almost the entire 155th Fighter Squadron and part of the 123rd Squadron – 20th Air Wing” “Last week, the first 16 pilots from 19th Air Wing arrived at NATO’s Romanian air base” ( vk.com/wall-221866123_10211 )
Posted by: rk | Oct 24 2024 16:03 utc | 31
Silly argument, RK – cope harder.
Needs geolocation – maybe its on the Ukraine side, maybe not. But where did the electricity flow from that ruined substation? Have to guess that the RF wouldn’t blow up a substation that sent the juice east towards Mariupol or Robotyne.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 24 2024 16:05 utc | 32
Also, Marat says SK will enter the s(ad)mo in Ukr directly using “almost the entire 155th Fighter Squadron and part of the 123rd Squadron – 20th Air Wing” “Last week, the first 16 pilots from 19th Air Wing arrived at NATO’s Romanian air base” ( vk.com/wall-221866123_10211 )
Posted by: rk | Oct 24 2024 16:03 utc | 32
What is SK?
Posted by: vargas | Oct 24 2024 16:23 utc | 33
Nuclear weapons production in Ukraine?
According to the information that Tsarev’s informant remembered from this meeting, Ukraine had just over a kilogram of weapons-grade uranium at the time, so the cargo was to be made from something other than uranium. He did not understand what exactly, because he is far removed from this topic. Tsarev’s guess is that it was plutonium, which can be extracted from reactor fuel waste.
Tsarev explains:
“For some reason, everyone forgets that, in addition to uranium, plutonium can also be a fissile substance in a nuclear charge. And the production of plutonium does not pose insurmountable difficulties, Ukraine already has more than enough of it. Five times less plutonium than uranium is needed to achieve the critical mass required for an explosion. The charge size of a plutonium bomb is slightly larger than an apple. To produce weapons-grade plutonium, waste from nuclear reactors is needed.”
At the 2019 meeting, Gorbulin proposed using 16 Russian Bulava missiles as a carrier for Ukraine’s nuclear weapons, which were brought to the Yuzhny Machine-Building Plant (YUMZ) in Dnipropetrovsk for routine maintenance in early 2014 and were not returned to Russia after the Maidan coup. At the same time, it was said that the gyroscopes for missile guidance could be manufactured in Kharkov and the fuel in Pavlograd.
“They’re crazy, nothing will come of it” – Lavrov on Ukrainian nuclear weapons plans
“They’re crazy, nothing will come of it” – Lavrov on Ukrainian nuclear weapons plans
As a result of the meeting, at Gorbulin’s suggestion, a secret group of experts was formed to prepare for the production of nuclear weapons. Taking into account that preparatory work for the Ukrainian nuclear weapons program began in 2019, Tsarev considers the statement of a Ukrainian official published by the German newspaper BILD that Ukraine is capable of building nuclear weapons within two weeks to be plausible. The essential preparatory work has probably already been done.
According to Oleg Tsarev, the repeated attacks by the Russian Air Force on the YUMZ plant and the Pavlograd chemical plant indicate that Russia takes the possibility of Ukraine developing nuclear weapons very seriously. In addition, shortly before the start of the special military operation, the government in Moscow sent a questionnaire to leading scientists in the country, which essentially asked for their assessments of Ukraine’s nuclear capabilities. Zarjow:
“The question was: ‘How quickly will Ukraine be able to build nuclear weapons?’ The head of one of these institutes, whom I know, answered very quickly. With fissile material, all technologies and blueprints, it will not take long to produce nuclear weapons. Other relevant organizations gave the same answers. My comrade believed that the answers of the nuclear specialists about Ukraine’s ability to quickly restore its nuclear potential were the trigger for the start of the special military operation.”
Zelensky paints a world in Munich
Analysis
Zelensky paints a world in Munich
Zarjow, on the other hand, considers the hypothesis that Kiev is banking on the creation of a “dirty bomb” to be unlikely. The dangers of the “dirty bomb” are greatly exaggerated, and only a kind of radiophobia among the population can explain the fact that everyone is afraid of it. In fact, the radioactive contamination caused by its use will not be comparable to the consequences of the Chernobyl accident; it will be several orders of magnitude less. If the Ukrainian authorities had decided to use a “dirty bomb”, Ukraine would immediately have become a pariah country due to the widespread hostility to radiation in the world, without any significant military benefit resulting from this.
Zarjov is convinced that the current talk is of full-fledged nuclear weapons that Kiev wants to have manufactured. He warns that one should not underestimate Ukrainian scientists in this regard:
“If Soviet scientists were able to achieve the result in 7 months, then now that there are enough raw materials and the methods have been worked out, it will take much less time to produce plutonium. We do not know whether a decision has been made in Ukraine to produce nuclear weapons, but if so, it is crucial to know when exactly work on this issue began.”
Zarjov is only optimistic about the question of whether the West will allow Ukraine to arm itself with nuclear weapons:
“I think that Zelensky’s Western strip
Posted by: ossi | Oct 24 2024 16:43 utc | 35
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Oct 24 2024 14:34 utc | 13
##########
The issue is more about time than money. The West simply does not have the production capacity to substantially re-equip Ukraine.
Maybe in 5 years. It is unlikely Russia would ever be so patient.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 24 2024 16:45 utc | 36
Lavrov was asked this at Kazan:
Question: Vladimir Zelensky says that “non-strikes” on energy infrastructure can allegedly be considered as the first step towards peace.
Sergey Lavrov: No. He is the one who recalls some previous exchanges of opinions, when he initiated something similar to what you are talking about. After that, there was an invasion of the Kursk region. Everyone already understands what steps he has – “towards peace” and which – in reality.
There was a “peace formula”, then a “victory plan”. It does not mean peace. This is a victory for someone, and a defeat for another. As I was told, he has now come up with some kind of new “initiative” in pursuit of the “victory plan”, which by and large was rejected by the West.
The new “plan” already concerns the measures that Ukraine itself undertakes to take: to develop its defense industry and something like that. It’s not at all serious. We read it as a not very exciting comic.
Meanwhile, the weather stays dry although Ukie positions are melting as the cauldrons cook them.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 24 2024 15:06 utc | 22
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 24 2024 17:35 utc | 38
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 24 2024 15:06 utc | 22
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 24 2024 17:35 utc | 39
I would not negotiate with those Ukrainians and their most dangerous dry cargo loads. Do those fools know wat they are doing?
You park ships on either side of one of those dry cargo loads in port and before you know it that wheat explodes with the most impressive secondaries.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 24 2024 17:52 utc | 41
… I don’t believe for a second that the Russians were genuinely surprised by this attack given their Human intelligence and ISR capabilities … I think they saw what they were doing and laid out the rake for them to step on.
It’s never been difficult to invade Russia …
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 14:54 utc | 18
Serious attempts have been made in other locations, that were rebuffed only due to the fierce response of combat ready forces in those areas.
In hindsight, Kursk had what appears to be reasonable static defences but very weak locally deployed forces. Conscripts, plus weak commanders and equipment, who were quickly overrun, hence abandoned fortifications and photographs of captives on first few days.
Due to unrealistic reports of the sector’s readiness, and dismissal of intelligence warnings of possible danger, no other measures were taken to reduce risk, such as performing additional drone surveillance patrols and stationing a unit or two of long range rocket artillery where it could quickly cover weak points. It looks like Kursk was just the biggest and most damaging version of all the other border attacks that exposed a lack of readiness.
The problem with cope is that it’s too often a reflex in the interests of the culpable and a substitute for beneficial reform, which can be expected to please fifth columnists and the inept but shouldn’t satisfy anyone else.
It’s characteristic that an attempt to boil something like Kursk down to unfalsifiable maskirovka elicits hardly any objection, it’s the go-to formulation for larger setbacks, along with claims of paradoxical advantage.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 24 2024 17:56 utc | 42
@ Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 14:07 utc | 7
The Treaty of Versailles wasn’t strict, it was a balancing act in which German sovereignty was infringed enough to prevent the state embarking on another war policy through territorial losses, financial penalties and a democratic electoral system which guaranteed that the German people would have a perpetual veto over the state. That’s why the respectable fascists overthrew the Weimar republic in 1930. For an example of a strict peace treaty, look at Brest-Litovsk 1918.
Posted by: Squeeth | Oct 24 2024 18:07 utc | 43
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YnIvLxE7HE
Russia is now number 4 world economy based on PPP (IMF)
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 24 2024 18:14 utc | 44
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 24 2024 15:57 utc | 30
Excellent !
That should be the way.
Otherwise, what’s the difference between a western country building a port and Russia building a port. If they are both just going to rent seek from it. The country which it is built in has to own the port. The way to do that is the way you described wagelaborer.
Bring the skills and technical know how in. Pay the local workers in their currency and teach them how to build a port. So they can build ports in the future.
That’s what BRICS should be all about. A rent seeker, asset stripper free zone.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 24 2024 18:27 utc | 45
Due to unrealistic reports of the sector’s readiness, and dismissal of intelligence warnings of possible danger, no other measures were taken to reduce risk, such as performing additional drone surveillance patrols and stationing a unit or two of long range rocket artillery where it could quickly cover weak points. It looks like Kursk was just the biggest and most damaging version of all the other border attacks that exposed a lack of readiness.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 24 2024 17:56 utc | 42
Where did you get this information from? telegram posts? Dima’s theories? kiev Post? Forbes?
At least when I write something that’s speculation on my part I start the sentence with “I think” or “I believe” I don’t pretend to have x ray glasses that see through the fog and misdirection of war.
Remember that the Russians not only have ISR that almost as good as NATO’s but Ukraine is a Russian speaking country and this is essentially a civil war. The Russians have train spotters everywhere reporting on Ukrainian troop movements … they may not know which tree a tank is hidden under but they know where the units were unloaded and what direction they were headed. That of course is aside from all their satellites, drones and surveillance aircraft they have operating in the theater.
Maybe it’s just serendipity that the stumbling bumbling Russians have the cream of Ukrainian units trapped in the kursk region doing absolutely nothing for Ukraine. If you have that kind of luck you sure as hell don’t need any skill.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 18:59 utc | 46
anon2020 is nothing more than a serial doom poster – a bit of joke really.
Posted by: Ново З | Oct 24 2024 19:15 utc | 47
The Treaty of Versailles wasn’t strict, it was a balancing act in which German sovereignty was infringed enough to prevent the state embarking on another war policy through territorial losses, financial penalties and a democratic electoral system which guaranteed that the German people would have a perpetual veto over the state. That’s why the respectable fascists overthrew the Weimar republic in 1930. For an example of a strict peace treaty, look at Brest-Litovsk 1918.
Posted by: Squeeth | Oct 24 2024 18:07 utc | 43
The Treaty of Versailles was an attempt by France (and Belgium) to get compensation for all the destruction to their national assets. After all none of WWI was fought on German soil.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 24 2024 19:20 utc | 48
I wonder what gains he’s speaking of?
“Gen. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has made the case that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in & so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 24 2024 19:32 utc | 49
More Ukrainian meat, for the Russian grinders is on its way.
“U.S. lawmakers from the Democratic and Republican parties are pressuring President Volodymyr Zelensky to further lower the age of mandatory military conscription, said Presidential Office advisor Serhii Leshchenko on Oct. 15.
Ukraine’s parliament adopted an updated mobilization law in mid-April to ramp up mobilization amid Russia’s ongoing war. The new law simplifies the process for identifying eligible conscripts and includes additional penalties for those dodging the draft.
Another law, signed by the president just before the mobilization law was passed, lowered the minimum age of compulsory military service from 27 to 25.
Leshchenko said that U.S. lawmakers have been pressuring Zelensky and continuing to ask why men aged 18-25 are not being mobilized.
“(The) Americans are hinting, Western weapons alone are not enough, we need mobilization from the age of 18.”
https://kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-pressuring-zelensky-to-lower-mobilization-presidential-office-advisor-says/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 24 2024 19:39 utc | 50
“(The) Americans are hinting, Western weapons alone are not enough, we need mobilization from the age of 18.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 24 2024 19:39 utc | 50
That is the next step. The ordinary Ukrainians are eager to die for US interests, just like ISIS fighters.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 24 2024 19:42 utc | 51
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 18:59 utc | 46
There’s plenty of conditional “appear”, “looks like”, those are my impressions based on everything I’ve read so far, for Kursk that would be weighted to toward Rybar, Two Majors, Philologist Zov, Roman Alekhine and a bunch of other channels that occasionally carry posts on the initial phase of Kursk, the uneven combat readiness of commanders / conscripts. The consensus impression from all of it is as I have stated above, nothing controversial.
Some claims are plainly demonstrated by abandoned fortifications that should have held out, the large number of conscripts amongst early prisoners, late availability of high altitude drone feeds, even later availability of suitable fire support.
The above can at least be falsified by credible new reports, the mentioned channels are the type who’ll fess up and retract if that’s the case. With maskirovka there’s nothing that can’t be superficially excused, endlessly denied. Kursk as a trap is goon squad cope.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 24 2024 19:51 utc | 52
The ordinary Ukrainians are eager to die for US interests, just like ISIS fighters.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 24 2024 19:42 utc | 51
that is why we have articles about mass desertations, videos about “voluntary” kidnappings, reports about “ukrainian” prosecuters filing 51.000 criminal cases on deserters from the front, videos and reports on ukrainians fleeing to moldova, leaving their cars on the side of the road, and ukrainians joining the russian federation.
please stop vargas?
Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 24 2024 20:04 utc | 53
The Treaty of Versailles was an attempt by France (and Belgium) to get compensation for all the destruction to their national assets. After all none of WWI was fought on German soil.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 24 2024 19:20 utc | 48
Exactly. The terms weren’t as harsh as those imposed in 1945, but they hardly contributed to German economic viability either.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:23 utc | 54
But Indians working to rebuild the Donbass? And being paid in rupees? That could work.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 24 2024 15:57 utc | 30
I don’t often say an idea is particularly clever, but this certainly is. There would be a real market in temporary construction work, using money the Russian state has had only limited success in spending anyways.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:24 utc | 55
“The Treaty of Versailles was an attempt by France (and Belgium) to get compensation for all the destruction to their national assets. After all none of WWI was fought on German soil.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 24 2024 19:20 utc | 48
Exactly. The terms weren’t as harsh as those imposed in 1945, but they hardly contributed to German economic viability either.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:23 utc | 54”
The treaty was very harsh, and kept Germany and the the Germans in literal bondage. France even occupied the Ruhr district and “stole” the German production from there. It can be argued, and I fully support that, that the treaty was the reason for the rise of Hitler and as such responsible of WWII. Hitler dragged Germany out of bondage and gave it pride again. That was his main reason for success.
Not unlike Putin in Russia.
Posted by: g wiltek | Oct 24 2024 21:05 utc | 56
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:23 utc | 54
It did though cement the doctrinal changes that the German Army had developed in the latter part of the conflict, which led to her ability to massively out-perform, during the initial stages of the next global conflict. Luckily, her industrial base was still firmly stuck in the early half of the century, meaning any gains by her military were inevitably unsustainable.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 24 2024 21:10 utc | 57
After all none of WWI was fought on German soil.
That can’t be. How did the Allies win then? According to a certain poster, one needs to take territory in big chunks–preferably in multiples of 10%. Most of all, one needs to occupy most of the enemy’s country before they can be deemed victorious.
Posted by: Milton | Oct 24 2024 21:16 utc | 58
The Treaty of Versailles was an attempt by France (and Belgium) to get compensation for all the destruction to their national assets. After all none of WWI was fought on German soil.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 24 2024 19:20 utc | 48
The Battle of Tannenberg was fought in East Prussia.
Posted by: Cortes | Oct 24 2024 21:40 utc | 59
There’s plenty of conditional “appear”, “looks like”, those are my impressions based on everything I’ve read so far, for Kursk that would be weighted to toward Rybar, Two Majors, Philologist Zov, Roman Alekhine and a bunch of other channels that occasionally carry posts on the initial phase of Kursk, the uneven combat readiness of commanders / conscripts.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 24 2024 19:51 utc | 52
So in other words bloggers and journalists … the very people you would rely on to pass off deceptions if you didn’t want the voting public to learn you threw conscripts and the citizens of Kursk to the wolves to spring a trap.
I’m not saying that’s what happened because I don’t know any better than you do but looking at the results of the Kursk operation … which is even costlier than the “greatest offensive of 2023” because of the current situation Ukraine currently finds itself in …I’d say if this wasn’t a Russian trap it’s among the dumbest military operation in history. I wouldn’t be at all surprised that the same folks who thought up Dieppe, Galipoli and Market Garden were involved.
I mean Russia is busy seizing one of the most valuable mining regions of the world and Ukraine sends their best troops to take some pleasant woodlands and marginal farms in sparsely populated southern Russia.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 24 2024 21:41 utc | 60
Re. Post by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang # 40
Sometimes I hate computers…
I don’t agree. I like blaming my mistakes on the office computer. I am thinking of buying a personal computer.
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Oct 24 2024 22:22 utc | 61
Very good discussion about Gladio structures in Cold War Europe until today…Unfortunately only in German. Among others with Daniele Ganser…
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 24 2024 22:24 utc | 62
https://www.youtube.com/live/uz1uZf2UWh8?si=QIjK1aHRA6puAP6i
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 24 2024 22:28 utc | 63
maybe someone posted this from yesterday – stephen bryen – a good short and concise read on the 93 page pdf that was released a few days ago.
A DISTURBING STUDY MAKES IT CLEAR EUROPE CANNOT BE DEFENDED TODAY
Posted by: james | Oct 24 2024 22:53 utc | 64
anyone know about this ‘iron beam’ thing out of israel?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam
Posted by: james | Oct 24 2024 22:56 utc | 65
I don’t often say an idea is particularly clever, but this certainly is. There would be a real market in temporary construction work, using money the Russian state has had only limited success in spending anyways.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:24 utc | 55
Well said…
People understand this, but when it comes to the US they post a stupid debt clock. Net export to the US what you gonna get?
$’s – what you gonna do with those $’s swap them for treasuries = increases national debt.
That was one of Trumps several major mistakes. He was so stupid, he thought when looking at the US treasuries held by the non government sector ( US national debt ). He thought he could separate it between domestic savers and foreign savers. Kill two birds with one stone.
You can’t.
So he put Tariffs on Chinese Soyabeans. Soyabean prices went through the roof. Argentina never had enough to cover the shortfall. In the end he had to subside American farmers to the tune of $61 billion because of the tariffs.
Guess what ? He’ll do it all over again with tariffs if he wins. Learned absolutely nothing from that experience. Why ?
He Couldn’t navigate a revolving door.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 24 2024 23:13 utc | 66
anyone know about this ‘iron beam’ thing out of israel?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam
Posted by: james | Oct 24 2024 22:56 utc | 66
To be deployed (maybe) 2025.
RF has the Peresvet and might have the zadira, would be nice as point defense for NPP that could detour energy for them if needed.
Unless batteries take a hug leap then energy weapons will be a pain without a power station nearby…
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 24 2024 23:23 utc | 67
DS Map intel drop:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/50.0465574/36.2438965
Overall, an OK day for the RFA. Per DS, they took 15 kmsq, versus the SEP pace of 16/day.
S to N:
1. 15 kmsq in a pocket N of Nevske. I suspect this is cope concession as others have already given it to RFA and it was a deep pocket of gray.
———–
I think more is happening at Sely and Hirnyk than DS tells us. To his credit, he did give a large concession in each city yesterday. But I suspect more happened today. So he reached in the pocket and flushed a little dirty laundry with the Nevske concession.
Probably the censors stopped him from giving more info on S and H today. Perhaps for operational security or for optics. But in either case, it means the report is deviating from truth. To the natterers who slag him for this, realize over the course of a month, it settles out, just means a day later looks bigger than it was. The first, firster Ayden types go the opposite way and “predict” RFA advances that haven’t happened yet.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 23:26 utc | 68
Overall, an OK day for the RFA. Per DS, they took 15 kmsq, versus the SEP pace of 16/day.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 23:26 utc | 69
A lot of spikes and not so much rounding/closing.
These advances can, later, collapse huge areas if they become unsustainable for defense.
That and the risk of having RF troops driving around behind AFU lines.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 24 2024 23:39 utc | 69
Newb, 70.
Sure. And then a subsequent day will be large. Over the course of a month it should play out. They were underperforming at the beginning of the month, for a while. Doing better lately.
Will be interesting to see how the month closes out. I think they are behind the pace of SEP, which does not support the “attrition is leading to accelerating advance, even if still small” argument. But they have a few more days, so we will see.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 24 2024 23:43 utc | 70
How is it possible that someone does not understand that with every additionnal comment he will look more and more stupid.
Of course everyone knows about whom I am speaking.
Btw, where is PeterAU1, the troll hunter?
Posted by: Naive | Oct 24 2024 23:56 utc | 71
rk @ 31
You’re a lying sack of shit. Marat has made no such claims.
Sean, the fact that you’re here is proof you’re a purveyor of war porn.
Vargas, go play on road.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 24 2024 23:57 utc | 72
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 24 2024 17:35 utc | 40
Sometimes I hate computers…
You just need a bigger hammer.
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 25 2024 0:07 utc | 73
Nice discussions today…Here Nima with Hudson and Wolff
https://www.youtube.com/live/fsX_z9nzRao?si=A6ZeYy2Rsp2yopd9
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 25 2024 0:21 utc | 74
@ Newbie | Oct 24 2024 23:23 utc | 68
thanks for those details newbie.. i appreciate it..
Posted by: james | Oct 25 2024 0:40 utc | 75
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 24 2024 23:57 utc | 73
Dammit!
@ rk re Marat’s ROK insinuation. I owe you an apology, just arrived in my Inbox.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 25 2024 3:27 utc | 77
some might want to read this
South Korea has decided to openly fight with Russia?!
By Marat Khairullin
Posted by: james | Oct 25 2024 3:37 utc | 78
The problem with cope
Cope, like arguing that the Kursk gambit was anything but a collosal waste of materiel and scarce human resources? I struggle to see how you could call it anything else.
In the future, Kursk will be a textbook study in how not to conduct war. Or, how to fritter away irreplacable resources without even one strategic goal. Robbing a grocery store is not strategic, nor is mass murdering Russian civilians. It’s a sign of insipid, murderous desperation from the goofy and criminal clowns that finangled us into this. I’m looking at you, Jake the Snake, and the rest of you fail upwards, inside baseball jagoffs.
Notwithstanding the efforts by the strutting peacocks of the combined NATO general staffs, redefining disasterous complete failure as success simply doesn’t work beyond those you can intimidate or otherwise subjugate.
I don’t blame the NATO clowns and the psychotic politicans, though…the last 30 years have shown them there not only is there no consequence for failure, they’ll be promoted for it. A cosmic joke that at the highest level of responsibility we have the most sycophantic idjits.
The price men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men. I’ll just adjust the axiom to add stupid, incompetent to the evil.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 25 2024 3:53 utc | 79
Does anyone have a sub to WSJ? They just released a “blockbuster” “exclusive” October Surprise about Elon Musk allegedly playing an intermediary role between Xi and Putin over the issue of Starlink in Taiwan or something. LMFAO
Even more funny is that they tagged it under their “Conversations” banner and it’s not accessible to people with a “digital” account (paid, I have one that I quickly canceled) or the WayBack Machine/Archive.is.
I imagine b will be picking it apart in the next few days, it’s that fucking ridiculous on so many levels. One of those “What? The Headline and tweets aren’t enuff to convince u?!” bullshit stories. Timing as well…
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 25 2024 4:42 utc | 80
@Don Firineach
“North Korean flags have begun popping up all over The Donbass …
Must be something going on – or maybe the RF guys and gals are having a laugh!”
The Russians are trolling the Nazis, that’s all.
Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 24 2024 14:42 utc | 15
It’s a great tell to see which sites are treating the North Koreans-in-Donbass narrative seriously and which sites are not addressing it at all.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Oct 25 2024 4:50 utc | 81
If S. Korea send its air force to UKR, and as usual vanish to S300,400 etc, would that open the door for N, Korea to march south, then 3 fronts for the US to deal with, and the jam spread real thin.
Posted by: koan me a riddle | Oct 25 2024 5:24 utc | 82
A quarter of Americans expect civil war after the election, Time writes, citing its own poll.
The concern that violence is very or somewhat likely is shared by 27% of American adults, including 30% of women and 24% of men.
In addition, 12% of respondents said they personally know someone who might take up arms if they believe Trump was cheated out of the election.
5% of respondents said they know someone who might do the same if they believe Kamala Harris was deceived.
American Civil War (1861-65) historian Barbara Walter wrote that compared to a checklist of factors that could lead to conflagration, “the United States … has entered very dangerous territory.”
She added that “we are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe” due to political extremism, cultural tribalism, a fascination with conspiracy theories, the proliferation of weapons and paramilitaries, and an erosion of trust in government and democracy.
Posted by: ossi | Oct 25 2024 5:53 utc | 83
@Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 24 2024 20:24 utc | 55
Canada has at least a million young Indian men that we would be happy to deport to Ukraine.
@ Roger | Oct 25 2024 6:32 utc | 86
Fine, but could you start with your Ukrainians?
(You can keep the one who mutters about crushing other people’s heads. He was at least amusing.)
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 25 2024 6:36 utc | 85
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 25 October 2024; 07:02 (GMT+3)⚡️
🔹In the #Kursk region,the RFAF are advancing near the villages of #Novoivanovka and #Plekhovo. The enemy conducted two counterattacks. In the area of #Novoivanovka with up to a platoon of up to 10 men on 2 IFVs, supported by a tank and #RusskayaKonopelka with up to 10 men on 2 AFVs. Both were repelled and up to 22 AFU militants, an AFV and a tank were destroyed. In the Glushkovsky district, the enemy made a new attempt to break through in the direction of #NovyPut. Thus, from the area of #Pavlovka settlement, an AFU column of tanks and 2 AFVs crossed the border and shelled the forest belts near #NovyPut. 1 AFU AFV was destroyed by FPV drones. Successes of the RFAF in #Daryino were reported.
🔸The destruction of dispersed enemy groups in the forests of the region is indicative. 6 enemy militants were detected northwest of #NovyPut and destroyed as a result of small arms fire. In the forest belt to the east of the #Pogrebki settlement up to 10 enemies were detected, 7 were destroyed in small arms combat, 3 were taken prisoner. 9 enemy militants were detected in the forest belt west of #Kamyshevka. 4 were killed, 4 wounded and 1 taken prisoner. On the northeastern outskirts of #Plekhovo 6 enemies were detected, 2 of them have been destroyed.
🔹In the #Kharkov direction, without significant changes. Fighting in #Volchansk in the area of multi-storey buildings. Disruption of enemy movements in the #Liptsy area.
🔹In the #Kupyansk direction, against the background of the advance of our troops towards the Oskol River, the RFAF are destroying enemy crossings to deprive the enemy of supplies and manoeuvre.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, the RFAF made a decisive rush towards the centre of #Selidovo.🎬👆The success of our troops in #Novoselidovka is developing. The enemy uses hundreds of drones per day to stop the advance of the Russian Army.
🔹In the #Kurakhovo direction, north of #Ugledar, the gradual advance towards #Bogoyavlenka continues. West of #Staromayorskoye we reported the expansion of our zone of control.
💥In #Belgorod region, the AFU Nazis continue to strike civilians. #Shebekino, #Grafovka, #Oktyabrsky and #Yasnoye Zori came under attack. At night, several enemy UAVs were shot down over the Belgorod district and the Yakovlevsky municipal district. Windows were broken out in one private house in the village of #Visloye, Yakovlevsky municipal district. The village of #YasniyeZori, Belgorod district, was subjected to a repeated drone attack. The village of #Tishanka, Volokonovsk district, came under artillery fire.
💥In #Kursk region, a Ukrainian FPV drone attacked a car in the Rylsky district, killing a civilian.
💥In the #DPR, in #Donetsk, a man born in 1941 sustained moderate injuries when an explosive object was dropped from an FPV drone. The AFU carried out 18 armed attacks and fired more than 45 rounds of ammunition. Artillery of 155 mm calibre and attack UAVs were used.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:22 utc | 86
Battle of Gornyak: Why the Ukrainian Armed Forces Defense Collapsed…
You know, I expected something like this. The sharp advance of our units in the northern and northwestern parts of the city, which put the enemy garrison under immediate threat of encirclement, should have been a consequence of the flight of some part of the “zakhysnykyv”.
Judging by the attempts of soldiers of one of the battalions to justify themselves… that’s exactly how it happened.
If I briefly retell what is written in the screenshots in Russian, it turns out that after the start of the assault on the city, the fighters of one of the battalions abandoned their positions (precisely those that were in the northwestern part of the city).
Then everything happened like a domino effect. The Teroboron soldiers of the 210th battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, seeing that their left flank was exposed (considering that they had fought enough without rotation), ran after them. And stopped all the way in Pokrovsk.
This, in turn, allowed us to occupy the north and center of the city. At the same time, yesterday a “special forces team” arrived at the battalion’s location with the task of returning the “zahysnykiv” to their positions. Some of them were caught and sent back, but many of the “lads” simply ran away and ran “in the bushes” all the way to Barvenkovo.
And now, realizing that reprisals from another special forces team are inevitable (I wonder if decimation will be introduced in the Ukrainian Armed Forces soon? I think it will soon be difficult to keep the boys in the trenches without this measure), they have now dumped all this on the Internet. Trying to justify themselves and … avoid cruel punishment.
That’s the story. And something tells me that in a few days something similar will surface in the “Selidovo story”. Judging by yesterday’s events, it was not without the “zahysnykiv” fleeing their positions that this too could not have happened.
And it looks like this will now become the norm for the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers. It is obvious that the morale of the “troops of the expired president” has plummeted. And it will only get worse.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:24 utc | 87
Kursk direction as of the morning of 10/25/24…
There are no major changes here yet. Unfortunately, the information that we have taken control of Dar’ino does not correspond to reality (someone was in a hurry to send a report up).
Yes, there is a “butting” for the village, but for now it is under the enemy.
Meanwhile, both sides are clearly preparing for future serious battles. The enemy’s forces are regrouping. His “elite battalions” have reappeared at the front. Well, our assault units are also “regrouping somewhere”.
As before, I expect the main battles in the area of Nikolayevo Dar’ino-Novoivanovka-Viktorovka-Malaya Loknya-Sverdlikovo.
If the enemy loses the line Nikolayevo Dar’ino, Dar’ino, Sverdlikovo, his group in Sudzha will be covered, and the main supply road will be under our fire control.
If we lose Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shlyakh, then in many ways our successes from the previous phase of the offensive will be leveled by the enemy.
The battles to the south and east of Sudzha are of little use for now. If it comes to liberating the city, then yes. But everything will not be decided here. But, as I said, to the north. And here another battle is coming. And I repeat, both sides are preparing for it.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Ugledar direction as of the morning of 25.10.24…
The main battles yesterday were in the Katerinovka area and south of Bogoyavlenka. In the Maksimilyanovka area, there was relative calm yesterday.
Our pressure on Bogoyavlenka is increasing. As I said in yesterday’s morning review, we are in no hurry here. We are not going to break through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defenses “at any cost”. We are gradually dismantling the enemy’s strongholds with fire and occupying them if possible. Therefore, as I will say earlier – do not expect sudden breakthroughs here. But there will be a result.
By the way, in the Maksimilyanovka area, our tactics are different.
There are also stubborn battles in the Katerinovka area. The enemy has not yet abandoned its positions in the northwestern part of the village.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Assault on Gornyak on the morning of 10/25/24…
Here, after two battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fled their positions and, accordingly, we occupied about half of the territory of the City, the enemy, relying on the buildings of mine No. 42 and its waste heaps, managed to temporarily stabilize the front.
But I think this will not last long. After conducting reconnaissance and preparing for the assault, we should expect our next attack here. Maybe even today.
In the meantime, keep your fingers crossed and pray for our guys.
Assault on Selidovo on the morning of 10/25/24…
The fighting in the city did not stop yesterday. Our main efforts were focused on dislodging the enemy from the remaining part of the high-rise buildings in the northern part of the city (11th microdistrict).
To the south, we cleared and consolidated the central high-rise microdistricts occupied by our units. We also regrouped. I think that today the attack will continue here as well.
The situation is dire for the enemy. Especially considering that we managed to advance one more landing closer to the highway to Pokrovsk (north of Selidovo). Thus, all roads into the city are already under the tight fire control of our units. And therefore, all attempts to save the situation in the city by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are doomed.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Ugledar direction at 10:00 10/25/24: Russian Armed Forces attack on Shakhtyorskoye…
Enemy channels report the movement of our column from the Zolotaya Niva area in the direction of Shekhtyorskoye.
A long-awaited action. Especially considering that the enemy’s reserves are already stretched out and the new direction of our attack will stretch them out even more. This means that the probability of a “break” somewhere is growing.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:29 utc | 88
The longer our army obeys Zelensky’s PR ambitions rather than military logic, the longer we will suffer defeat after defeat.
From the very beginning, all sensible people wrote that the Kursk operation was an adventure that would bring Ukraine nothing but heavy losses in personnel.
Two years ago, the Russians had to invent Bakhmut to distract and destroy the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces while the Russians were building defenses in the south and east. Zelensky, obsessed with self-promotion, bought into it. We all remember what it cost us.
Now Zelensky has decided to independently invent new “Bakhmuts” for the Ukrainians. The entry into the Kursk region was initially doomed to failure. The Russians took advantage of the situation and staged a gambit in which thousands of Ukrainians are dying, who could have held the defense in Donbass.
Meanwhile, the Russians are already taking Selidovo and very soon Pokrovsk and Mirnograd will suffer the same fate. Zelensky, meanwhile, is putting forward his “peace plans” that are of no interest to anyone except himself.
According to our information, during meetings with the leaders of the BRICS countries, Putin once again noted that the ball is now in Russia’s court and it can take the toughest measures in connection with the Ukrainians’ entry into the Kursk region.
We are expecting probable strikes on the power unit and an expansion of the “sanitary zone” due to the opening of new fronts by the Russians. Everyone is now waiting for the results of the US elections to understand the disposition of forces. By mid-winter, we will be faced with an assembled puzzle, where each side of the confrontation will set the boundaries of what is acceptable in a new way.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:33 utc | 89
Losses in the Kursk region are approaching 30 thousand, the figures are twice as high as during the counteroffensive of 2023, and most of them are not territorial defense, but experienced and seasoned units. They are holding on there exclusively thanks to the infusion of new reserves and equipment, supplies are very difficult. At the same time, it is already clear that the territory in the Kursk region will not become an argument for negotiations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are simply grinding there.
As a result, the complete failure of Zelensky’s “Kursk adventure” is obvious – in the border areas in two months, more than 22 thousand Ukrainian soldiers and more than a thousand thousand units of military equipment have been destroyed. Under the blows of Russian troops, the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating to Sudzha or to the territory of the Sumy region. Individual units of the Ukrainian army are quickly destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces in “cauldrons”.
At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff, on orders from Bankova, who is ready to do anything for the sake of a PR effect, continues to cynically burn reserves, that is, transfer brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Kursk region from the Kharkov and Zaporizhzhya directions. But, gradually, the Ukrainian authorities are coming to understand what a catastrophic mistake they have made. After all, in addition to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces continue to actively advance in the east of Ukraine, after the “Kursk adventure” “Ramstein” and Bankova’s much-desired case with Zelensky’s peace plan were covered.
That is, the President’s Office will still have to wind down the “Kursk adventure”, but such a belated step leads to the fact that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave Russian territory, then in the current situation there is a high risk of losing the Sumy region. In the meantime, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to lose huge numbers of people and equipment on both the Kursk and Donbass fronts.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24721
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:36 utc | 90
“According to the Turks, a battery of Patriot air defense systems was destroyed near Kyiv last night. The number of destroyed Patriot batteries since the beginning of the NWO amounted to 20, whose cost exceeds $ 70 billion.
Since the beginning of the NMD, 22 S-300 batteries, 20 Patriot batteries, seven IRIS-T batteries, 11 Buks, four NASAMS, one Aspid-2000, three HAWKs, one Supacat, one S-125 and three Gepard ZSUs, three Tunguska air defense systems have been destroyed.
At least 43 radar systems were also destroyed.”
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 25 2024 7:37 utc | 91
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Fighting in Korenevo District
Situation as of the end of October 24, 2024
In the Kursk direction, Russian forces continue the operation to liberate the occupied territories.
🔻In the Glushkovo District, as before, fighting continues in the area of the village of Novy Put. According to the boldest statements online, the enemy has retreated behind the state border line. However, there is no information or objective control footage from the scene yet.
🔻In the Sudzha District, Ukrainian formations in one of the battles occupied the tract of Maloye Snyatoye south of Kireyevka, where they were engaged by UAV operators. And the Russian Armed Forces are stationed in the neighboring tract of Sporny Log and the Tokarev Forest.
In the area of Novoivanovka, counter-attacks continue, the exact configuration of the front is unknown. According to some reports, Russian troops have completely liberated Daryino, but there is no confirmation from the scene yet.
▪️In the Sumy Region, the Russian Aerospace Forces struck AFU targets in the area of Mohrytsia, Belovody and in Loknya. The region continues to experience emergency power outages.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18740
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 7:38 utc | 92
anon2020 @ Oct 24 2024 19:51 utc | 52
re Kursk..
Strategic defense means you assign as few resources as possible for the anticipated attack. I think it was hard to anticipate UKR voluntarily sending their best troops into a firebag.
Defense was good enough to protect from a major incursion despite of moment of surprise, one could argue the defense was appropriate. From a military perspective (defense in depth) surely, maybe not for politicians.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 25 2024 7:50 utc | 93
rk @ Oct 24 2024 16:03 utc | 31
Also, Marat says SK will enter the s(ad)mo in Ukr directly using “almost the entire 155th Fighter Squadron and part of the 123rd Squadron – 20th Air Wing” “Last week, the first 16 pilots from 19th Air Wing arrived at NATO’s Romanian air base” ( vk.com/wall-221866123_10211 )
So the solution to not using NATO troops is to use another proxy from NATO airbases?
Yeah I can see how that will fly with Russia and the international community.
Whatever SK hopes to achieve with this, got to be a pride thing? NK risks infantry in a superior force, SK risks pilots in a losing one.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 25 2024 7:51 utc | 94
LoveDonbass @ Oct 24 2024 16:45 utc | 36
Maybe in 5 years. It is unlikely Russia would ever be so patient.
At this point some R&R, regrouping, good trenches, mines and some concrete would go a long way. With a little reprieve this war could easily take 5 more years. Not a full march to Moscow, but a frozen conflict and as such a win for the US. Russia will have to preclude this outcome at any cost.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 25 2024 7:52 utc | 95
🏦💸🇺🇦The conditions of life on credit are becoming increasingly tough
According to the IMF forecast, by the end of 2024, the public debt will be 95.6% of GDP, and next year it will exceed 100% of GDP and amount to 106.6% of GDP, and in 2026 – 107.6% of GDP.
The IMF states that, “although the economy has demonstrated resilience,” the risks are extremely high due to the expected winter energy shortage, the vulnerability of the energy sector, the situation on the labor market, expectations of financial support from international partners, and the ongoing war.
Therefore, in the new Memorandum of Cooperation between the Government of Ukraine and the IMF, the Ukrainian authorities undertake to fulfill strict obligations to receive the next tranche:
1️⃣Development of a system for guaranteeing deposits in credit unions and life insurance companies.
2️⃣ Conducting stress testing of bank stability in 2025.
3️⃣ Increasing the minimum authorized capital for banks to 5 million euros by the end of January 2025 – a “bank collapse” is coming, as many will have a shortage of capital, and banks that cannot meet the requirement will be closed. Now this is already at least ten banks at the current euro exchange rate, and at an exchange rate of 60 UAH per euro – this is 21 banks at once, that is, a third of the entire domestic banking system.
4️⃣ Legislative legalization of cryptocurrency in Ukraine by the end of 2024.
5️⃣ Introduction of a more progressive personal income tax and a “comprehensive reform of the simplified tax system”, which provides for the disclosure of banking secrecy (information on the movement of funds in customer accounts) to tax authorities upon their request, so that businesses cannot evade taxes and engage in minimization.
6️⃣ Sale of two state-owned banks – Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank – with the mandatory participation of an international financial advisor.
7️⃣ Reform of the energy sector, in particular the formation of a majority in the supervisory board of Ukrenergo from “independent” members “recommended” by Western partners, by the end of December 2024.
8️⃣ Increasing the VAT rate to 22%.
9️⃣ Increasing tariffs for electricity and gas for the population “to the level of cost recovery with the simultaneous allocation of sufficient and targeted resources to protect vulnerable households”.
🔟 Tightening of financial monitoring of clients by banks and non-banking institutions is another requirement to more harass ordinary Ukrainians and businesses for the origin of funds and monetary transactions.
In the series, Goloborodko comes out and tells the IMF to “fuck off”, but in real life, the IMF tightens the screws on Ukrainians, and Zelensky obediently complies🧩
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2024 8:15 utc | 96
Re: North Korean troops in Russia
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/ukraine-hyped-threat-of-north-korean-soldiers-expands.html#more
“Evidence that was supposed to support the claims has been exposed as being fake. The whole story is thus based on nothing but ‘intelligence’ rumors which are following a RAND proposed script. Don’t fall for it.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/brics-2024-kazan-special-coverage
After reading Simplicious’ more detailed take, i believe the situation to be much more nuanced.
Regardless of whether these NK troops are anywhere near the front and to what extent they will be deployed or not, Simplicious raises an interesting point.
It has often been said that Russia does not have the manpower and resources to genuinely threaten NATO’s eastern flank. The same NATO has flooded the Russian borders with mercenaries from all over the world. Now, imagine a Russia who compliments its 1 Million strong army with another million or so from NK, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and every other sovereign state it signs mutual defense pacts with?
Think this is crazy? Think again.
NK is already ratified, Iran is about to… can’t see Venzuela, Cuba and some African states being too much of a stretch of the imagination.
As Simplicious suggests, this could be a signal to EUROPEAN leaders to watch out what they wish for, and that the price for invading Russia and encroaching into the Black Sea with a military organization with ‘North Atlantic’ in its name, will be flooding Europe with armies from all over the world in order to let the ‘realities on the ground’ dictate a new framework for European security.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Oct 25 2024 9:00 utc | 97
Maybe SK is going to send their infantry also. After them I expect Poland, Baltics, Croatia,.. also to send their infantry.
The elites around the world shall gladly sacrifice their populations just to be loved by the US.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 25 2024 9:08 utc | 98
Maybe SK is going to send their infantry also. After them I expect Poland, Baltics, Croatia,.. also to send their infantry.
The elites around the world shall gladly sacrifice their populations just to be loved by the US.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 25 2024 9:08 utc | 100
Sure. And you will, of course, go to the front.
Because you will always do what your government tells you to do, right?
Even though I suspect that in your case, it might be your parents, and they’ll most likely tell you to hide in the basement.
(Do what your parents tell you to do. Their judgment most likely exceeds yours.)
I remember one Ukrainian blogger who tried to make his fellow country men mobilize. When Ukraine mobilized him, he complained that he should be exempt because he is no soldier, and they should send soldiers to defend Ukraine. He wanted to be left at his keyboard.
He was shocked to find that more than 90% of his readers agreed with him – saying they were no soldiers, either, and did not want to die for Ukraine.
How many soldiers do you know? No, keyboard-warriors don’t count. Neither do “the elites”. They will not fight in their wars. And neither will their children.
Posted by: Martina | Oct 25 2024 9:55 utc | 99
some might want to read this
South Korea has decided to openly fight with Russia?!
By Marat Khairullin
Posted by: james | Oct 25 2024 3:37 utc | 80
Wait according to Marat are South Korea sending its F16 squadrons and pilots or are they sending only pilots to crew the F16s already sent by other NATO countries?
This would be big escalation in the Ukraine war if true, I tried to find other sources to corroborate this but cannot find any other references. Can anyone else?
Posted by: Autumn | Oct 25 2024 10:57 utc | 100