News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Back to Main
October 20, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-251
Comments
🇲🇩 Moldova, presidential elections, they write to us:
🖋”Please publish this so that in Russia they don’t think that the people of Moldova voted for the EU. This is how they voted on the territory of Moldova itself! The advantage in the vote was only due to falsified results in foreign areas of Europe and America! In red are those areas of Moldova that voted against!”
✨ Moldova’s incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu has won 41.85% of the vote in the first round of presidential elections after 97.93% of the ballots were counted.
Second place goes to the former Prosecutor General of the country, candidate of the Party of Socialists (PSRM) Alexandru Stoianoglo; he has 26.35%. In third place is Renato Usatii (13.77%).
We believe in the indignation of Moldovans regarding direct election fraud . For the whole of Russia, the Moldovan Central Election Commission opened only two polling stations, both in Moscow ( for 500 thousand❗️ Moldovan citizens in Russia), which is tens of times less than the law (there must be at least 38 stations in 34 cities). Only 10 thousand ballots were printed for voters from Russia. At the same time, about 200 points were opened for Moldovans living in European countries.
🇪🇺At the same time, a referendum was held on the issue of Moldova’s integration into the European Union. After 98.06% of the votes were processed, the share of votes of supporters and opponents of European integration was almost equal: 49.89% are in favor, 50.11% are against.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 21 2024 9:57 utc | 101
In the Kurakhovo direction, fighting continues in the area of Gornoye and Maksimilyanovka.
Russian units have crossed the Kurakhovo-Donetsk highway and are trying to bypass the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions located to the east. The Russian Armed Forces are making this maneuver in order to create a large bridgehead to encircle Kurakhovo from the south. In addition, this will allow Russian troops to strike from the north against the Ukrainian Armed Forces group further south – to attack the supply hub of Uspenovka, which is important for Ukrainian troops, in the Ugledar direction.
In addition, the Russian army has advanced, continuing the assault on Gornyak. Fighting is taking place here on almost half the territory of the city, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing from the north. Probably, the main efforts of the Russian units are aimed at occupying the mine in the southwest of the city. Having taken it, as well as the waste heaps, under their control, Gornyak will find itself in an operational encirclement, and the city of Kurakhovka, located to the south, will be in a fire pocket.
In addition, according to a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Muchnoy,” in the area of Zoryane, Russian troops crossed the Volchya River and “effectively entered Gornyak’s rear from the south.”
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21290
Posted by: Down South | Oct 21 2024 10:00 utc | 102
The world is threatened by total war and the extermination of humanity, – Medvedev
According to him, Russia’s long-term goal is the collapse of the United States or the creation of a full-fledged counterweight to America, as was the case during the existence of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact.
“After all, the alternative to such a balance of power is total war until the complete extermination of humanity. A world without balance will not last even a decade in today’s conditions. If the West does not realize this simple truth, it will be the end for everyone. And this is not a situation where the death of some will mean the victory of others.”
Posted by: ossi | Oct 21 2024 10:14 utc | 103
… “The role of artillery during assaults is reduced to a minimum – it operates on distant targets, and only in rare cases does it provide direct support to troops in combat.”
Posted by: Down South | Oct 21 2024 9:55 utc | 104
Shhh, there’s been no end of internet blimps holding forth on the impossibility of substituting artillery with FPVs, even though that’s been the clear trend all along. Sometimes due to lack of artillery, sometime dysfunctional bureaucracy, mostly because drones are a flexible “backpack” way to hit targets tens of km away.
Blimps don’t have to sit under the answering counter-battery fire after an artillery pieces has given away its own possibly by firing, and a lack of intellectual integrity / competence prevents a discussion of the subject on its objective merits. Say hello to high platform cost, heavy logistics footprint, limited payload scaling, expensive range extension and guidance options.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 10:25 utc | 104
Posted by: Down South | Oct 21 2024 9:57 utc | 106
As I mentioned in the open thread they are pumping the votes to say the yes won.
More than 55% against at 86% and then reversed with votes they control and belong to nobody.
Elections are more and more “corrected” when there is no compliance from the people.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2024 11:13 utc | 105
Down South@953
The bitch dictatress Sandry needs to be removed from the human race. She is but a tool for the Cabal…in other words, yet another political whore. No sense playing politrix games with such human filth.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 21 2024 11:27 utc | 106
Correction by Aristodemos of 1127 statement:
Autocorrect is sometimes useful but all too often pedantically stoopid AI. I keyboarded the name Sandu and this stoopid AI system replaced it with Sandru. In this posting its programmers had “Sandusky” as the preferred alternative. While iMacs are good machines, whoever programmed their A.C. to reject all words which are not in it’s “dictionary” are guilty of creating messy texts.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 21 2024 11:38 utc | 107
“Posted by: Down South | Oct 21 2024 9:57 utc | 106
As I mentioned in the open thread they are pumping the votes to say the yes won.
More than 55% against at 86% and then reversed with votes they control and belong to nobody.
Elections are more and more “corrected” when there is no compliance from the people.”
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2024 11:13 utc | 110
“If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it”
Mark Twain
According to the minister, the financing of these deliveries was made possible by France “collecting” 300 million euros in interest on frozen Russian assets in European banks, as agreed in June of this year by the leaders of the EU, the United States and Japan at the G7 meeting. Lecornu recalled that about 60 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers have already been transferred to Ukraine and about 80 will be delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the end of 2024.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 20 2024 16:48 utc | 23
It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so outrageous. So, if you are powerful enough you can freeze the bank account(s) of anyone you don’t like. While the money is frozen you can help yourself to all allocated interest and use it to defeat (or try to defeat) the legitimate owner of that money. All this with the most elegant impunity.
And they wonder why all those they already don’t like are getting together at BRICS? Even more hilarious.
Posted by: Avtonom | Oct 21 2024 12:27 utc | 109
Anyone who thinks that the EU would not resort to massive voter fraud……in suddenly appearing foreign ballots did not view the total fraud in the 2020 US elections.
Its now the template for vote manipulation……like 150K pre printed ballots all for Joementia showing up via UPS truck in the middle of night….in Pa……..or more votes than voters in Detroit or yet another truckload of ballots showing up in Milwaukee…………….
Moldavia needs to be in RF, Hungary, Serb orbit in order to thrive……….
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Oct 21 2024 12:28 utc | 110
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2024 11:13 utc | 110
its always the same. the moment the trend is going against their wishes, suddenly a miracle happens!
Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 21 2024 12:35 utc | 111
Some more Kursk analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUCG6viMXn4
I like how he looks at different sources. And also considers terrain (treelines versus open fields).
Despite the clickbait title (he is pro Ukrop), it’s mostly RFA advance. But not a UFA collapse.
I think he’s slightly underestimating RFA advances in Glushkovo. And I don’t buy the chance that UFA is pivoting left. But I think he’s right to discount the “first, first” RFA cheerleaders (not either side MOD, not a geolocation) which claims UFA pushed out entirely (to the border).
At one point, 5:00 or so, he asks about a curious set of buildings, duplicated from Glushkovo and center of Kursk salient. FWIW, I think these are industrial farm barns (pigs or chickens or the like).
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 21 2024 12:45 utc | 112
@117
Posted by: ossi | Oct 21 2024 9:57 utc | 105
I suspect that the tactics described by ossi of small, mobile units reflect the lack of a true frontline in much of Kursk, along with the reality that there are no heavy pre-built fortifications. Therefore it is a very different kind of war than in the Donbass, or Zap where both sides have well-established frontlines and defense-in-depth.
The problem for the UAF was always going to be that there is no good terrain for keeping and holding territory. Mobile units need supply and the only supply lines run through a few villages that can be easily overcome, or cut off, given enough force brought to bear. A guerilla-style campaign won’t work either, as the terrain is flat, now or within 2 weeks denuded of foliage, and easily observed from above with FPV drones.
Russia seems overly conservative or perhaps just going slow to minimize their own casualties (and maximize the other sides.)
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 13:33 utc | 113
If that’s two M31 GMLRS rockets then it’s 2x91kg warheads, so not exactly a couple of FAB1500s, but still a lucky escape.
https://t.me/dva_majors/55586
Kursk region, AGGRESSORS report :
Our UAV operators from the special forces worked to support the assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces found ours and did not spare 2 missiles from the HIMARS MLRS.
After the most severe blow, God saved our soldiers, not a single wounded, the third video shows our group leaving the building.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 14:01 utc | 114
Shhh, there’s been no end of internet blimps holding forth on the impossibility of substituting artillery with FPVs, even though that’s been the clear trend all along. Sometimes due to lack of artillery, sometime dysfunctional bureaucracy, mostly because drones are a flexible “backpack” way to hit targets tens of km away.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 10:25 utc | 109
The Stokes mortar, a mortar that was light enough to be carried by a single squad member, was invented in 1915. A very successful weapon but it didn’t replace heavy artillery or even field guns.
Then between the war aircraft was supposed to be the end of artillery. The big guns were present in WW2 in bigger numbers than ever before. It’s interesting to note here that the single weapon that caused the most casualties in WW2 was the mortar.
Missiles didn’t replace conventional artillery or aircraft either. Guns didn’t replace steel blades as a weapon of war … they complimented them … to this day soldiers carry knives and bayonets and assault rifles still have bayonet lugs.
Drones cause nightmares and PTSD but nothing like being caught in an artillery barrage where the shockwaves of massive explosions for hours on end causes brain and internal organ damage. The demoralizing effect alone is worth the cost of the big guns.
There are times when an anvil sized piece of metal packed with high explosives raining down from 50 KM away is just the thing you need to ruin an enemies day.
Don’t get me wrong … drones are effective weapons and they aren’t toys but they aren’t a wonder weapon that will replace artillery.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 14:11 utc | 115
While the discussion of tactics is nice in detail, if you translate it, they’re saying “sometimes foot infantry infiltration, sometimes mechanized columns”. Which is a little but like “sometimes heads and sometimes tails”.
I think the real interesting thing is the first option, the on foot infiltrations, sometimes with sizes smaller than a squad (element of 4 men). The idea is to take a temporary position that is unmanned (or weakly manned) and the follow up with more troops (often APC speed runs that drop off and run back, as the drone danger to vehicles remains high).
The small element infiltration, with followup is one of the innovations to deal with the problem of too strong defense (mines, drones, forts, etc.). OF course, normal mechanized assaults remain as an option where they are feasible (i.e the column won’t get destroyed).
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 21 2024 14:12 utc | 116
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im_e2c7inr4
I did wonder why Russia hasn’t done more mass encirclements around large cities, as long as they can hold positions from two sides ( think Caesar in Gaul). I guess the moment has come when such tactics are practical.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 21 2024 15:16 utc | 117
Two to four soldiers working as a unit are usually called a fireteam in English. Wikipedia has a decent page on it with details from different countries.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 21 2024 15:25 utc | 118
One wonders what Austin is whispering into Zelensky’s ear.
“US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has arrived in Kiev in a show of support for Ukraine, as Russia continues to make steady gains on the battlefield.
The Pentagon chief’s surprise visit to Kiev on Monday takes place just two weeks ahead of the US presidential election that is casting uncertainty over the future of Western support for the war against Russia.
This is Pentagon chief’s fourth visit to Ukraine under US President Joe Biden who is serving his final months in office.
A major summit of the leaders of allied countries, which was scheduled for this month in Ramstein, Germany, was canceled amid waning support for Kiev.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 21 2024 15:34 utc | 119
The problem for the UAF was always going to be that there is no good terrain for keeping and holding territory.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 13:33 utc | 118
The problem for the UAF is there was nothing of military, commercial or strategic value in the Kursk direction in the first place so what was the point of the attack other than to sieze the Kursk NPP in some wild plan to hold it hostage and perhaps to get the attention of those who control the USA’s purse strings.
It should not be lost on anyone that there is an actor playing the role of the president of Ukraine and since the start of the war Ukraine has not been above losing 10’s of thousands of “extras” (along with tens of billions of our tax dollars) producing media ‘victories’ masquerading as military victories.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 15:56 utc | 120
Defence Minister Announces Nearly $65 Million in Aid For Ukraine
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-aid-ukraine-1.7356287
“More than $50 million will go towards arms, ammunition and military drones.
Canada has committed more than $19.5 billion in support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022…”
Add another $10 billion before that beginning after the West-backed coup in 2014. Approximately 30 billion of Canadian people’s money down the Ukronazi shithole instead of housing and healthcare. And no parliamentary opposition against. Nazi-clappers all!
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 21 2024 16:03 utc | 121
I did wonder why Russia hasn’t done more mass encirclements around large cities, as long as they can hold positions from two sides ( think Caesar in Gaul). I guess the moment has come when such tactics are practical.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 21 2024 15:16 utc | 122
I think you have to look at where the city is located and who controls the high ground. Cities sit at road / rail junctions or are located on rivers so they tend to be low ground relative to the surrounding terrain. Bakhmut for example had well defended hills to the west that the Russian couldn’t get around. Back in the days of ww2 they didn’t have high res cameras on every building or tower, drones flying 24/7 and NATO satellites watching your every move. There is no longer any chances to build up forces or achieve surprise.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 16:14 utc | 122
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 15:56 utc | 125
That’s a good point – there is nothing within the shrinking zone of control of the UAF in S. Kursk of any strategic or tactical value. The only value of the incursion is as a springboard or bridgehead, but there is no evidence of any buildup or logistical improvements to allow such further gains north, and in fact, progress was stopped dead around Sept. 4-5. Everything since has been recovery of territory by the RF or counter-attacks by the UAF to slow down the shrinkage.
3 months in, nearly, there really does not seem to be a point anymore and any good general would see this and 1. retreat, or 2. bring sufficient forces to bear to expand the bridgehead. As you pointed out, Zelensky is pretty much in the deranged madman arc, as he cannot bring himself to do 1 and 2. is not possible anymore due to the amount of attrition and other sections of the front crumbling. He’s left sort of like Hitler in his last days ordering around imaginary brigades on a map, with generals to afraid to tell him the truth.
I wonder if he has one “kick the table over” move left of just pulling reserves from across the entire frontline to send them to Kursk? Just give up Chasiv Yar, Selidove, and other towns. We all know how that movie ends.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 16:31 utc | 123
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 15:56 utc | 125
The problem was their plan was good for a MapEx, an interesting ‘What if’, for the wargaming clickers and pushers of counters, NOT an actual plan during a conflict you are losing, due to being on the wrong side of the attrition curve. Far too many assumptions, far too much hand-wavium, instead of a realistic appraisal of the objectives.
There was a neat approach told to me by an RN officer, at every stage of a plan, based on an assumptive/predicted enemy reaction another person would say ‘fuck off’ and the plan had to accommodate that response. This would go on until all the likely predicted responses had contingent plans as a counter. The Ukrainians didn’t even get to the first ‘fuck off, when they assumed Russia would respond by sending forces taking part in the Donbas offensive, or that they could take Sudzha quickly and capture other D+1-2 objectives.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2024 16:36 utc | 124
Once the Kursk salient is reduced, and its well on the way to being reduced, then its on to Sumy, and a new front and new pressure on the UAF forces.
This will only accelerate the collapse of the whole front………..
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Oct 21 2024 16:49 utc | 125
The only value of the incursion is as a springboard or bridgehead, but there is no evidence of any buildup or logistical improvements
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 16:31 utc | 128
Not at all. The task was to enter, kill and destroy. Exacly like all previous attacks, like the those in Belgorod, Donetsk and so on. In the first incursion, the great RF general staff did not even capture them, they killed civilians and ran. No punishment afterwards either because brown pants are brown, Kiev is in US now, nothing can touch it.
The internet propagandists, the begging talking heads of youtube, do not want to accept the truth that it was and still is a killing spree which the RF leadership and its sad army still hasn’t stopped. So they invent all sorts of fiction to make it look like the general staff wins something or knows what it is doing and that is was a Ukr failure. How can zombies “fail”? they have no brain, they do exactly as told, they’re dead already. I would bet money Nato sits and watches Gerasimov FAB-ing Kursk, destroying every single building all over Donbass with great joy. This is scheme very well adapted only for Russia, it would not work anywhere else on the planet. You can not name a single other country that would bomb itsels and protect the enemy more than itself.
Posted by: rk | Oct 21 2024 16:53 utc | 126
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 14:11 utc | 120
Analogies and historical comparison are only useful to extent that they capture the decisive factors.
Artillery pieces have to remain economical in the current and worsening counter-battery risk environment. Guns are expensive, the longer the range the higher the safety margin but also the higher the cost of platform and operation, there’s always something worth going after when artillery fires. The acoustic and thermal signature of artillery is significant, the shells easy enough to track by C-B radar, guided shells that can fly a deceptive trajectory are high cost, negating the “cheap and plentiful” argument.
Down South‘s post @104 shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, artillery being used ever more sparingly in order to manage counter-battery risk, kamikaze drones taking over strike missions wherever possible (regardless of the fact they they’re not a simple like-for-like substitute), rocket artillery a more suitable weapon for counter-battery exchanges due to superior range and payload vs guns.
Artillery is undercut by drones that are easier to disperse, have a smaller logistics footprint and don’t depend on a relatively small number of functioning “heavy metal” platforms. Artillery is “overcut” by guided rockets with far superior range and payload scaling options.
If Grad 122mm rockets were flitted with cheap guidance units, made from off the shelf actuators and microelectronics, the operating space for “classic” artillery would be even smaller.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 16:57 utc | 127
Posted by: rk | Oct 21 2024 16:53 utc | 131
I get your point, what you’re describing sounds more like ISIS than a disciplined military force.
I am a critic of the slow response of Russia and the lack of creativity. They are treating it like a military incursion when as you point out, it has at least hybrid terrorism features.
What would you have Russia do? I would suggest sending special forces or assassins to specifically target figures like Lloyd Austin and Starmer’s defense minister in Kiev. If what you say is true (and I don’t have any evidence to not accept it) then they are fair targets, much as the US WoT targetted Saddam, Bin Laden, and the ISIS leaders in Iraq.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 17:04 utc | 128
It is a little interesting to note which nations have a GDP that is very similar in PPP and nominally; and their loyalty to the hegemon.
Since nominal GDP is entirely dollar-based a ratio of 1.0 between PPP and this former indicates how tight it is to the US system (USA is of course 1.0) suggesting highest degree of integration.
Australia (1.00), Israel (1.04), 5 Nordic nations combined (1.06), Canada (1.10) and Great Britain (1.10) suggests how their economy is very Linked to US system.
The EU (without the Nordic nations) have a ratio of 1.42. The EU GDP estimate of 2024 (per IMF) is $24.90 trillion (PPP) or $17.58 trillion (nominal).
So the former nations with the most equal PPP/nominal numbers also tend to be the most vocal and economic contributors.
This, in the context of BRICS and and anti-Russian nations also suggests who has the most to lose on a positive evolution of BRICS.
Norway, for example, would be in an exellent position if it ever got closer to BRICS, being such a large energi eposter, but I think a politician here ever discussing this would face anything from MeToo, “russian agent” or simply face acute obscurity.
I don’t know how BRICS will play out or how it will affect the situation in Ukraine in the long run, but I suspect it will incrementally shift the West’s concerns in other ways, when the realize how project Ukraine has failed..
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 21 2024 17:30 utc | 129
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 21 2024 17:30 utc | 134
Interesting. What you are saying is that the ratio PPP/GDP positively correlates with anti-western sentiment.
If true, this is quantitative evidence of the split in the world affairs.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2024 18:07 utc | 130
Weeb seems to corroborate the Russian offensive narrative
https://youtu.be/nQtosyAfy4o?si=dbGUacrf0X95ysMC
“Massive Russian offensive covers entire eastern front” – clickbaity as expected but we might be getting close to a new period in the war where collapse becomes evident
The European Union is discussing the possibility of sending its peacekeeping forces to Ukraine after the conflict ends, an anonymous EU official told Politico. According to him, the proposal is being discussed at the level of EU legislative bodies, and this initiative could be implemented after peace is achieved in Ukraine.
The issue of the need for peacekeepers to be present in Ukraine after the end of the conflict, according to the source, is part of a broader EU strategy to stabilize the region and prevent possible new conflicts. The representative emphasized that the discussions are at an early stage, and there are no final decisions yet on when and in what format peacekeeping forces will be sent to Ukraine.
“The European Union intends to play a key role in the restoration of Ukraine after the conflict. A peacekeeping mission could become one of the elements of this process”, — the Politico source noted.
“peacekeepers” aka occupation forces to deny anything russian “after the conflice ends”.
western values.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 21 2024 18:34 utc | 132
Artillery pieces have to remain economical in the current and worsening counter-battery risk environment.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 16:57 utc | 132
First lets compare apples to apples.
An commercial FPV drone like the ones commonly used by Ukraine carries a payload of between 5 and 10 lbs up with it’s range limited to LOS so from 5 to 10 km.
Russian artillery can launch a 100lb projectile 25 km.
Drones carry one warhead per drone.
Russian artillery fires between 6 and 10 rounds per minute.
Lets be generous and say that drone is in the air 10 minutes before it finds a target. In that time the drone put 10 lbs of ordinance downrange to a maximum range of 10 Km
The gun has put 6000 – 10,000lbs of ordinance downrange to a distance of 25 KM in the same amount of time it took the drone to find it’s target.
A standard US HE 155mm shell cost around $500 to make prior to the Ukraine war (it’s around $8k today) but that’s a US shell not what they cost the Russian to make.
An FPV drone costs on average $400 and on top of that there is the cost of ordinance.
So to make it interesting lets say it’s 5 guns against 5 drone operators. The guns have put up to 50,000 lbs of high explosive and shrapnel downrange in 10 minutes while the 5 drone operators have put 50 lbs and at best they’re armed with an RPG shell or some lighter fluid and a match.
Another thing that’s lost on people is that in most cases when an FPV drone strikes an AFV it’s a mission kill … they damage the vehicle but don’t destroy it. If the Russian are successful in their assault and take territory they gather up the vehicles, repair them and put them back in service. They report these as kills in the Ukrainian telegram channels and in western media but we all know you don’t consistently knock out tanks with a 10 lb warhead with the kinetic energy of a 100mph drone behind it and certainly nowhere near the impact of a 100 lb projectile dropped from over a mile in the air.
I think drones are now a major weapons system and very effective however they don’t replace artillery because there are times you just have a square mile or so of territory you want to fill with shrapnel and you want to be able to keep it up all day. And try shooting down an arty shell with a shotgun.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 19:03 utc | 133
If true this is the big news of the day. This is very good for Russia, a fissure vulnerable to a USA crowbar just got sealed. It shows the Modi govt. isn’t wavering as this also closes the door to troublemakers inside India, the biggest “excuse” to shift sides in the global east west struggle just got very intentionally shut down.
China and India have successfully reached an agreement to resolve their border tensions just before the BRICS summit.
As part of the deal, border patrols will withdraw and disengage, ensuring that clashes are avoided.
“>https://t.me/AussieCossack/24839
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2024 19:08 utc | 134
USAF Globemaster transport from Keflavik (Iceland) approaching Rzeszow (Poland)
https://www.flightradar24.com/RCH444/37a50481
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 21 2024 19:13 utc | 135
I’ll try again – USAF Globemaster from Keflavik approaching Rzeszow in Poland.
https://www.flightradar24.com/RCH444/37a50481
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 21 2024 19:16 utc | 136
With regards to PPP/Nominal GDP ratio, it is complicated, but SOME indications can be noted:
1. The $ being the International measure of GDP, at least “classically” and in a “westernocentric” view makes a PPP correlating the most with it aking to be most US-centric. Therefore, USA PPP and nominal GDP is the same.
2. The more interlinked economies are, which also tends to include political integrations, the closer their PPP/nGDP tend to be.
3.
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 21 2024 19:43 utc | 137
@ HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 19:03 utc | 138
Well said re Anon2020.
However, have you perchance considered the effectiveness of a Ukie issued Pickle Jar, as claimed, versus an incoming salvo of Russkie 152mm artillery shells ?
ZH has a posting up with the title
Pentagon Pours Cold Water On Zelensky’s Claim Of North Korean Troops In Ukraine
the quote
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has of late begun pushing hard new accusations that at least 10,000 North Korean troops are being sent to Ukraine where they will fight on behalf of the Russians.
South Korea’s spy agency had also backed Zelensky’s claim, chiming in on Friday to say that at least 1,500 North Korean special forces have already been sent. The spy agency says it has satellite images tracking these movements. But over the weekend the Pentagon refused to back the reports, with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin explaining that he can’t confirm this narrative.
“I’ve seen those reports in the media. I can’t confirm those reports at this point in time. This is something that we will certainly continue to investigate,” Austin said Sunday.
So what is Austin doing during his current visit with Z?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 21 2024 20:08 utc | 139
sorry, post got accidentally sent..
3. Note that a PPP/nGDP ratio says nothing about the state of the economy, but is merely a measure of the divergence of PPP (Purchasing power parity) of a cpou8ntry with it’s nominal GDP and actually more useful for the common people and their purchasing power, IMHO. The reason I find this ratio issue so interesting is that it does suggest (as alex_a says above) it could be a way to describe the geopolitical states as well.
Some interesting examples, focusing upon BRICS:
*UAE and Brazil (Ratio of 1.79 and 1.83) have the lowest ratio of all current BRICS members and have good economic ties to the West (i. e. USA/EU especially)
*China (1.89) still has immense trade links and economic ties to the West despite both USA and EU working overtime to destroy them.
*Saudi-Arabia (2.12) is an interesting one as much as still not being a full-fledged BRICS member and still somewhat embedded with the petrodollar. Their high PPP (High PPP/nGDP ratio) probably indicates more than anything how the country still finances it’s own citizenry and public servcices very well and has managed to keep their economy a bit closed to Western exploitation, (IMHO).
*Ethiopia (2.44), South Africa (2.57) and Russia (2.66) all have exconomies that are less tied in with the West, especially Russia fter they got cut off from MOST Western trade. It will be interesting to see if Russias ratio increases more, but this could depend upon so many variables that it is hard to tell. A gold-backed BRICS economy would change everything.
*India (3.70) and Iran 4.02) appears to have done well in trajecting away from Western NGDP model and doing more BRICS-trade method with exchange of goods. There is often talk about “How close” India is to the US and certainly has a large diaspora, but this again suggests their economy is fully capable of staying outside the Western model.
*Egypt (5.43) has the highest ratio of all BRICS nations. Interestingly enough, measured in PPP the country has the 16th largest economy in the world. My guess is that this also makes them more resitant to lost revenus from the Suez canal in wake of the Houthi blockade.
Question:
*Switzerland has a HIGHER nGDP than PPP ($940 vs. $820 billion) for a ratio of 0.87 and is the only nation with a significant economy (17 largest in the world). So as a matter of fact has a more nGDP based ecopnomy than the USA.. I am not sure about why.
The economy of the EU is merged as one, mostly because of the increasing interlinkage and definitely the political strong-arming from BRussels. I separated out the Nordic economy merely to show a different. (Nordic nations almost identical to the USA 1.00 ratio, while EU as a whole is between USA and BRazil (1.42).
All data is IMF projection of 2024. I am not an economist, but have increasingly found BRICS and the geopolitical situation in the world to be highly interesting. I would love to hear someone with economics insight say something about this..
With regards to Ukraine I would merely speculate that ($516 billion/$189 billion nGDP for a ratio of 2.73) indicates how preferable it would be for USA/EU (and BlackRock) to finance it so the ratio drops sigificantly if it ever should join EU and the Western debt model. At the same time, this number also suggests how the Ukirane economy has closeness the RUssia structure (2.66), at least in past…
Peace to you all.
Posted by: Norwegian Pawn | Oct 21 2024 20:19 utc | 140
LightYearsFromHome
This is a fabulous development.
I have long time predicted that RUssia will be the architect in brokering a lasting good relationship between China and India in many ways. One could just5 imagine if they agreed on a demilitarized “Greater Himmalaya” (Nepal, Bhutan, “Tibet”, Sikkim, Arunachal, Himachal, Uttarakhand) that woudl ensure staibilty and a way to share resources in the region, particularly water access, an import future thing to solve.
Bravo India&China !!!!
Posted by: Norwegian Pawn | Oct 21 2024 20:24 utc | 141
Posted by: Jens Skolen | Oct 20 2024 23:31 utc | 68
Posted by: Jens Skolen | Oct 21 2024 1:38 utc | 76
I agree with your analysis. Of course it’s not the first time such a protection racket has been run, the Athenians had one a while ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delian_League
History only rhymes, but some people do study it before doing modern implementations, and sometimes what you read reminds you of something:
To further strengthen Athens’s grip on its empire, Pericles in 450 BC began a policy of establishing kleruchiai—quasi-colonies that remained tied to Athens and which served as garrisons to maintain control of the League’s vast territory. Furthermore, Pericles employed a number of offices to maintain Athens’ empire: proxenoi, who fostered good relations between Athens and League members; episkopoi and archontes, who oversaw the collection of tribute; and hellenotamiai, who received the tribute on Athens’ behalf.
Posted by: pessoa | Oct 21 2024 20:28 utc | 142
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 19:03 utc | 138
The relative slow speed of drones plus the increasing number needed to effect a kill on a vehicle, due to its increasingly adapted defences, makes the drone less effective at stopping determined armoured assaults. As I posted before, they are stop gap weapons that do not replace the platforms they substitute, just as the Germans wide-ranging use of man-portable AT rockets, in ‘44-45’, did not replace the more effective traditional platforms, that they were short of.
Also with artillery v drones, don’t forget that artillery can affect a far larger area (a 152mm shell has a danger area of 100m+), whereas the drone’s payload is largely a blast effect, or has a light fragmentation jacket that reduces the range of the fragments produced.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2024 20:30 utc | 143
Here is a very interesting interview with an honorable (a dying breed) German journalist, Patrik Baab. He has just returned from a trip to Donbass and describes his impressions… In 2022, he was one of the very few German reporters in the war zone (mainly Mariupol) and is now reporting on an “area under reconstruction”. The interview was conducted in Moscow shortly before his return to Germany…
https://youtu.be/-gbpMfqMHD4?si=rxAHE0LnuEgwvS6y
https://youtu.be/HsrMICqdMhs?si=MJgbkGqLYjsbp8p2
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 21 2024 21:23 utc | 144
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 19:03 utc | 138
>>>First lets compare apples to apples.
>>>A commercial FPV drone like the ones commonly used by Ukraine carries a
>>>payload of between 5 and 10 lbs up with it’s range limited to LOS so from 5 to 10 km.
Range is that at a minimum, twice with a comms repeater, more with some elbow grease. I’m surprised FPVs aren’t already being supplied with optional lifting-wing kits to improve range / loiter (but comms is usually the limiting factor on range).
>>> Russian artillery can launch a 100lb projectile 25 km.
>>> Drones carry one warhead per drone.
>>> Russian artillery fires between 6 and 10 rounds per minute.
There’s nothing special in the range of “standard” artillery vs. “standard” FPV now. Without laser guided shells, artillery can’t hit moving targets. It’s superior to FPV in terms of brute concrete penetration but FPVs can aim for soft points far better, attack laterally etc.
>>> Lets be generous and say that drone is in the air 10 minutes before it finds a target.
>>> In that time the drone put 10 lbs of ordinance downrange to a maximum range of 10 Km
That’s not generous, max endurance is double at least in typical configurations.
>>> The gun has put 6000 – 10,000lbs of ordinance downrange to a distance of
>>> 25 KM in the same amount of time it took the drone to find it’s target.
>>> A standard US HE 155mm shell cost around $500 to make prior to the Ukraine war (
>>> it’s around $8k today) but that’s a US shell not what they cost the Russian to make.
>>> An FPV drone costs on average $400 and on top of that there is the cost of ordinance.
>>> So to make it interesting lets say it’s 5 guns against 5 drone operators. The guns have
>>> put up to 50,000 lbs of high explosive and shrapnel downrange in 10 minutes while the
>>> 5 drone operators have put 50 lbs and at best they’re armed with an RPG shell or some
>>> lighter fluid and a match.
We’ve all seen the denuded moonscape images (not a body or vehicle in sight) … it’d be better to be realistic about the targeting loop of a typical command structure and the accuracy of unguided shells than quote gross tonnage.
>>> Another thing that’s lost on people is that in most cases when an FPV drone strikes an AFV
>>> it’s a mission kill … they damage the vehicle but don’t destroy it. If the Russian are successful in their
>>> assault and take territory they gather up the vehicles, repair them and put them back in service.
>>> They report these as kills in the Ukrainian telegram channels and in western media but we all know
>>> you don’t consistently knock out tanks with a 10 lb warhead with the kinetic energy of a 100mph
>>> drone behind it and certainly nowhere near the impact of a 100 lb projectile dropped from over a
>>> mile in the air.
Without guided shells artillery can’t hit moving targets. Immobilising a vehicle with one FPV sets it up for a second pass by another FPV or artillery. Failure to follow up on immobilised vehicles has been a problem all along but it doesn’t detract from the value of denying the use of equipment.
>>> I think drones are now a major weapons system and very effective however they don’t replace
>>> artillery because there are times you just have a square mile or so of territory you want to fill
>>> with shrapnel and you want to be able to keep it up all day. And try shooting down an arty
>>> shell with a shotgun.
Limiting the comparison to FPVs vs commodity shells fired from commodity guns, FPVs already take a lot of business away from artillery on an equivalent basis, are undoubtedly superior in many realistic scenarios that you can enumerate for yourself, and can often stand in at a push even when artillery would be more effective. Aguments about FPVs not being able to substitute for artillery have always had a “special” quality when stated loudly and repeated against a backdrop of Ukrainian forces doing exactly that.
Troops are better off with shotguns than not but soldiers can’t afford to be unrealistic about what kind of edge they provide, in what scenarios. and against what drone / warhead evolutions.
On this God of War stuff …. tonnage, PTSD, field plowing etc … it’s atavistic cheerleading.
Solid arguments for artillery are on grounds of existing production, inventory, expertise …. leveraging existing investments of one sort or another – continuity, to the extent that continuity has some objective value – and on the grounds that drones are typically flimsy and comms-bound. Cannons and rockets more robust when operational, it wouldn’t do to end up completely on the wrong side of that observation.
I think we’re still in the “smoke ‘em if you’ve got ‘em” phase with the mass use of commodity artillery. Artillery can back up and complement strike drones at comparable ranges, is superiors in some situations and operational parameters, but I think were already seeing heavy Tornado-S and FABs used to fill holes that are a telling failure of artillery coverage.
A low cost guided MLRS option, that could hit coordinates or laser illumination, would be far more preferable in most situations, even given the nominally higher shot cost (i.e. negating platform cost). Something like Rafael’s “EPIK” guidance module for Grad rockets, but cobbled together from consumer grade components.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 21:42 utc | 145
Autocorrect is sometimes useful but all too often pedantically stoopid …
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 21 2024 11:38 utc | 112
Blah blah blah. Bullshit.
The only cause of wrongly worded posts is a failure to proff read your own post before hitting send. [Allowances made for NESBies and web-translaters, of course]. Ffs,it takes but a few secnds. But noooo, all the knee jerk Twitterheads around here just blurt out their spontaneus thought bubbles at a highly caffeinated rate with little or no care for spellink, grammer, punctuation, ambiguity, etc. Take responsibility for the consequences of your own innattention. Predictive text and spell checkers have made us all mentally lazy. Admit it.
Posted by: Go_to_Hell | Oct 21 2024 21:48 utc | 151
deep irony Go_to_Hell?
proff secnds spontaneus spellink, grammer innattention
Posted by: Ново З | Oct 21 2024 22:02 utc | 146
@LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2024 19:08 utc | 139
Given India’s tracking records, I’d like to let its actions prove itself even if it reaches some agreement with China for peace between the two. My impression is that India reached some agreement(s) with China before. IMHO, India would be considered as some sort of the extended anglo sphere per its recent 200-year history, its credibility is upon what it actually does, not what it says. The two good examples from the anglo for that are the us/uk pair.
Posted by: LuRenJia | Oct 21 2024 22:06 utc | 147
DS Map dropped:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/51.1373552/35.0374603
Overall another subpar day for the RFA. Only 10.5 kmsq gained. (SEP pace was 16/day.)
S to N:
1. 5 kmsq N of Vodiane. Continuing to clear fields, not yet near next town.
2. 4 kmsq in W side of Maksymilianivka. Town is 90% red, 10% gray. Thus not conceded by DS yet. This is helpful in getting closer to Kurakhove.
3. 0.5 kmsq W of Nelipivka (fields). Interesting that DS has STILL not conceded New York capture.
4. 1 kmsq W of Krutyi Yar. Threatening Lysivka. Small progress towards Pokrovsk.
5. Nothing in Kursk, gray or red.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 21 2024 22:14 utc | 148
A lot of reports and comments have been published here.
I have been following them closely since the beginning.
It is worth taking stock from time to time.
The military confrontation began with the Maidan coup d’état in 2014 (violation of Article 111 of the Ukrainian constitution). Putin’s reaction was the liberation of Crimea and reunification with Russia, which Putin compared to the unification of Germany in his speech, and very probably prevented a NATO base from being established in Sevastopol. Russia had no further territorial interests at the time. It was only when Minsk II was broken, which according to Macron and Merkel only was intended as a deception from the outset, and from then on Russian support for the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics increaed. The two republics declared their independence.
Russia only later recognized the two republics and supported them within the framework of international law.
From a military point of view, it must be acknowledged at this point that the West, including Japan, Australia and South Korea (but also Turkey), supported Ukraine very effectively and put up sustained resistance to the Russian offensive starting on February 22, 2022.
At this point, it must be acknowledged from a military point of view that the West, including Japan, Australia and South Korea (but also Turkey), supported Ukraine very effectively,
For me as an economist with good historical and political knowledge, however, it was clear that the cause of the West, and thus of the Z regime, was doomed from the outset according to the motto ‘He who digs a pit for others falls into it himself’.
It should be noted that China has been economically stronger than the US in terms of GDP on a purchasing power basis since 2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
Of course, I am a little proud that I came to the same conclusion with less knowledge than a brilliant scientist like Michael Hudson.
Xi Jinping’s assurance during Putin’s visit at the opening of the Olympics a few weeks earlier that ‘friendship with Russia is unlimited’, which was even reaffirmed some time later as ‘ironclad’, confirms the assessment.
It is pointless to speculate about who has the better weapons; the game changer in all future conflicts will be China.
With kind regards
Otto Kern
DE-37412 Herzberg-die Esperantostadt
Germany
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Posted by: Otto Kern | Oct 21 2024 22:16 utc | 149
The small element infiltration, with followup is one of the innovations to deal with the problem of too strong defense (mines, drones, forts, etc.). OF course, normal mechanized assaults remain as an option where they are feasible (i.e the column won’t get destroyed).
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 21 2024 14:12 utc | 121
We were doing this already in 1965. But we were strange troops.
automatic translation
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Oct 21 2024 22:25 utc | 150
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2024 21:42 utc | 150
Your obsession with accuracy, and its belief that it’s the main direction of a weapon’s evolutionary track, is very ‘Western’. Conventional artillery is superior to drone launched, dropped or propelled ordnance, what has caused that arm a good deal of problems is the drones ISR enhancement to CB missions.
This is very similar to the arguments about the obsolescence of the tanks, it’s been said before and each time it proves a false dawn for the technophiles, seemingly desperate for their ‘Billy Mitchell’ moment. Tanks, artillery, fixed wing aviation and aircraft carriers will all remain, for the foreseeable future, simply because they are very good at what they do.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2024 22:43 utc | 151
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2024 22:43 utc | 157
You may underestimate drones a little if I’m reading you correctly.
Re: aircraft carriers, an interesting future awaits. While they’re still very good for parking off-shore and picking up third world countries to shake down every now and then, the advent of low cost hypersonic missiles and drones adds a new dimension and vulnerability. A giant military base just floating within reach of groups like Ansar Allah, not to mention peer militaries like China’s, presents a tempting target.
Taking the cynical viewpoint, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that is actually one of the intents. A pretextual lure to ‘justify’ large military incursions or bombing campaigns. Ala the Gulf of Tonkin, etc. Or falseflag bait.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 21 2024 22:55 utc | 152
LuRenJia @ 153
I agree sleep with one eye open around India, but unlike the west and whatever bad habits they inherited from the UK, India does have scruples grounded in history with regards to past and future relations. They’ve shown staunch support to Russia as much as memory of the USSR as realpolitik, and as for China they’ve been dealing with each other for at least 2000ys without starting up any world wars with tens of millions dead.
I’m sure the pressure from the USA on Modi, govt. officials, and Indian corporate leaders and oligarchs, must be heavy and incessant, so more than singing Kumbaya with China, which is as you state unrealistic, this to me seems like the Asia/Indo Pacific slamming the door on USA meddling.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2024 23:02 utc | 153
I think drones are now a major weapons system and very effective however they don’t replace artillery because there are times you just have a square mile or so of territory you want to fill with shrapnel and you want to be able to keep it up all day. And try shooting down an arty shell with a shotgun.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 21 2024 19:03 utc | 138
The definition of artillery, according to the rules of my army, is: “ESSENTIALLY TECHNICAL WEAPON THAT MANEUVERS LARGE MASSES OF FIRE OVER LARGE SPACES”. Therefore drones, missiles and cannons are under the command of artillery.
automatic translation
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Oct 21 2024 23:06 utc | 154
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 21 2024 22:55 utc | 158
Super carriers are of limited use in the near term. However I do see large deck carriers based off of container ships to be of value for AEW and ASW assets as satellite ISR is going to be unreliable against mid tier powers such as Iran or Brazil in the near future.
You cannot hit what you cannot see. Something people seem to forget when discussing missiles like zircon.
Posted by: Badjoke | Oct 21 2024 23:18 utc | 155
@LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2024 23:02 utc | 159,
Thanks for your reply. IMHO, I will not underestimate the abilities and the lowness of the anglo evil duo us/uk to mess things around. From my understanding,
1. In northeastern Asia, it’s de facto amerikkka’s colonies. What I referred to is JP and KR.
2. In ASEAN, the current Marcos regime in Phillippine is a willing amerikkkan vassal, likely for his own $$$ interests in amerikkka’s hands. Other members in ASEAN are either China-leaning or try to be neutral. Burma may be complicated and unstable since it’s a former uk colony but some part in its north is close to China. So the anglos can poke through Burma.
3. In southwest Asia, PK, BD, IN, and LK are former uk colonies, I believe the influence from the class(es) or interested groups that served the anglo empires (the past or present) is still there and may be even strong. So the anglo duo can easily manipulate through those.
4. Even in China, there are a lot (really a lot) Chinese who are amerikkkan-in-spirits. These amerikkkan-in-sprint Chinese envy almost everything amerikkkan and despite anything Chinese. A lot of this kind of Chinese exist in Chinese academia, especially in social science areas. Even the renowned Peking University and Tsing Hua University are filled with quite such people. These people in academia can influence a lot of youth with poisonous thoughts. So the anglo can still try to find willing Chinese within to impede China’s development.
I will be very cautious about anything related to the anglo because they have NO limit to the downside. As the recent history shows, the anglo keeps getting lower and lower.
China’s Xi once said something like that we need to use the language that the invaders can understand (my emphasis). For the anglos, the only thing they can understand is by power/strength. The best way to make them understand something may be to beat them up to the extent even their moms can’t recognize.
Posted by: LuRenJia | Oct 22 2024 0:30 utc | 157
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2024 22:43 utc | 157
Seems you are all discussing different levels of tasks. For a platoon commander on-hand supply of drones might be preferrable to a battery of guns elsewhere. A company and batallion commander has some guns in his command and more on call, so his view will be more balansed. For a brigade commander and higher to discard his atrillery because some loo prefers drones for his platoon’s task is a laughable idea.
Posted by: Bob | Oct 22 2024 1:42 utc | 158
Posted by: Bob | Oct 22 2024 1:42 utc | 165
No battery is “elsewhere”, proof of this is that with the advanced assault units there are artillery observation officers, who are directly connected with the commands that deliver the fire, and direct it, according to the needs of the moment. Another thing are the department weapons such as mortars etc…
automatic translation
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Oct 22 2024 2:47 utc | 159
Dima says, the Russian advance continues unabated.+
Posted by: guest from franconia | Oct 20 2024 21:45 utc | 60
But very, very slow as after 2 years and 8 months of war, Russian forces are still fighting in the middle of Donbass.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 22 2024 3:09 utc | 160
deep irony Go_to_Hell?
proff secnds spontaneus spellink, grammer innattention
Posted by: Ново З | Oct 21 2024 22:02 utc | 152
_____
I rather suspect that GTH’s misspellings were deliberate and ironic. Consider which words were misspelled.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 22 2024 5:41 utc | 161
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 22 October 2024; 07:00 (GMT+3)⚡️
💥During the night in the #Tula region, the premises of the Efremovsky Distillery and the distillery in the village of #Luzhkovsky in the Suvorovsky district were hit by AFU UAV attacks. According to preliminary information there were no casualties. The destruction of enemy drones over the #Bryansk and #Belgorod regions was reported. In #Tambov region at the Biochem Company there was an explosion followed by a fire. According to preliminary information, the cause of the emergency could have been a drone strike. In #Voronezh region, a Ukrainian drone fell on the shop building of an industrial enterprise.
🔹In the #Kursk region, the ‘North Troops Grouping’ reports that the AFU is bringing in new reserves and counterattacking with large forces. During the day 2 counterattacks were repelled near the settlements of #ZelenyShlyakh and #Obukhovka with a total of up to 80 men on 4 IFVs supported by 2 tanks. The enemy losses totalled up to 50 men, an IFV and a tank. In the area of active hostilities the enemy has transferred special forces to identify the positions of the AFU and weaknesses in the defence, and is using a large amount of artillery. The AFU is also engaging reserve units of enemy equipment on our territory: footage of an American M1 Abrams tank of the 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade of the AFU appeared.
🔹In the #Kharkov direction, heavy fighting in #Volchansk, an enemy attack was repelled near #Staritsa.
🔹In the #Kupyansk direction, the Russian Army is building up pressure west of #Sinkovka in the forest area towards the northwestern outskirts of #Petropavlovka. Fighting continues near #Kruglyakovka, and the bulge in the defence of the Protvinik near the Oskol River is expanding. Even further south our troops are moving westwards from #Andreyevka to the eastern outskirts of #Vishnevoye, forming another depression, which, given the terrain and the capture of dominant heights, raises the enemy’s fears of further advances on #Borovaya. Also from #Vishnevoye, the RFAF attacked towards neighbouring #Pervomayskoye (#Pershotravnevoye).
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, fighting on the northeastern outskirts of #Selidovo. The “D.S. Korotchenko Mine”, from whose territory Russian troops attacked #Selidovo, came under the control of the RFAF. It is reported that at #Gornyak our troops came close to the town from the eastern side.
🔹In the #Kurakhovo direction, the RFAF are fighting for #Katerinovka and #Antonovka, expanding the zones of control in the settlements.
💥In #Belgorod region, #Shebekino and the village of #NovayaTavolzhanka came under AFU strikes. A man was wounded. A passenger car travelling from the village of #Cheremoshnoye in the Belgorod district was attacked by a kamikaze drone, a man and a woman were wounded.
💥In the #DPR, men born in 1964 and 1984 were wounded by AFU shelling in #Gorlovka. A man born in 1982 was injured as a result of a drop from an AFU UAV, and a man born in 1970 was also injured.
🎬The AFU abandoned their positions and fled from #Lyubimovka and #ZelenyShlyakh.👆
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 6:39 utc | 162
I believe there’s misunderstanding of the generic term “Drones”.
Large type UAV to small hand grenade carrying types.
Small units, especially infantry units can only fight with what they can carry and it’s never enough.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 22 2024 6:40 utc | 163
Kursk direction on 10/22/24: counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shlyakh…
Yesterday our near-military channels began to “color” maps of control of the Russian Armed Forces of territories in the Kursk region back.
The “culprit” of all this is a video about how one “Abrams” and one “Bradley” of the 47th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine iron out our positions in Novoivanovka.
In fact, there was no powerful counteroffensive of the enemy with a repeated restoration of control of the enemy over a significant territory of the Kursk region. Just as there were some of our alleged successes there.
It’s just that yesterday the enemy again tried to counterattack from two sides to knock our units out of Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shlyakh. In order to restore their control over these important points, from which our units in the future can deliver a fatal blow to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As a result, the enemy attacks were repelled and there were no significant changes in control over the territories (as I said above) in this area.
Just like in other areas of the Kursk direction.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Ugledar direction on the morning of 22.10.24…
Here it is becoming increasingly obvious every day that the enemy’s reserves are running out. The constant destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ personnel in the strongholds and during rotations is yielding results.
Almost every day there is already a push through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions south of Bogoyavlenka and in Katerynivka. And the breakthrough in Maksimilyanivka is growing in all directions (and yielding results) also every day.
A breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense (despite the presence of fortifications) can happen in such a situation any day. Where it becomes very “thin” there it will “break”.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Assault on Gornyak on the morning of 22.10.24…
Our troops continue an active and aggressive assault on Gornyak. Yesterday, the fighting shifted to the central part of the city and, according to Ukrainian near-military sources, less than half of the city is now under their control.
Our units have occupied its entire northern part and the western and eastern outskirts. Taking the center and then moving to the southwestern outskirts of the city will lead us to mine #42 “Kurakhovskaya” and further to the enrichment plant, through which the last (fire-covered) road connects the garrisons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kurakhovka and Gornyak with the rest of its units goes.
Thus, the situation for the enemy here is getting worse by the hour. They will not be able to withstand such an onslaught here for long.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Assault on Selidovo on 22.10.24…
According to reports from locals, the Russian army has already penetrated quite deep into the city limits and urban firefights can be heard in the northern, eastern and southern parts of the city.
There are also battles on the outskirts of Vishnevoye, and to the north of the city our units have taken control of another forest plantation and thus tightened the noose around the city even more tightly.
In which, despite all the noise and air and artillery strikes, the main battles have not yet begun (we have not yet approached the high-rise buildings).
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 6:43 utc | 164
In the Kurakhovo-Pokrovsky direction, the Russian army captured the northern part of Gornyak in the Donetsk region (northeast) from Kurakhovo. This was reported by Ukrainian war correspondent Bogdan Miroshnikov.
According to him, Russian units are advancing directly in Gornyak, having captured the entire northern part.
The fighting is now in the center, about 40% of the city area remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Miroshnikov adds.
He also reports that on the eastern bank of the Volchya River, a maximum of 1.5 km in width and 1 km in depth remains from the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces bridgehead.
This is essentially the last village there – Alexandropol, for which fighting is already underway, the war correspondent clarified.
He also confirms the actual loss of Zoryane, which was attacked by the Russian Armed Forces the day before. According to his assessment, now the situation in Kurakhovka (a settlement south of Gornyak) will be extremely difficult.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21296
Zelensky’s Kursk adventure is advantageous to Russia, we are forced to constantly transfer the best reserves and equipment to enemy territory, while in Donbas we do not have enough forces for defense. The Kursk gambit will go down in history as Putin’s most calculated asymmetric response, when Russia sacrificed two regions to lure the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a trap and destroy them in a territory that is not advantageous for defense.
The Kremlin has postponed the order to oust the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region until February 1, 2025 and wants to create a “buffer zone” on Ukrainian territory until February 25, – RBC sources in the Defense Forces
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24691
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 6:50 utc | 165
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Use of AFU Abrams Tank in Novoivanovka
Situation as of the end of October 21, 2024
In the Kursk direction, clashes continue in several areas where Ukrainian formations are trying to consolidate on Russian territory.
▪️In the Glushkovo district, no significant changes were recorded over the past day, with fighting continuing in the vicinity of the village of Novy Put. Russian troops are clearing the previously liberated territory, pushing Ukrainian formations further south, towards the Sumy Region. The Russian Armed Forces continue to fire on AFU positions in the border zone – in Pavlovka, a group of Ukrainian infantry was hit by a Russian drone strike.
▪️In the Korenevo district, AFU groups that were semi-encircled in the Tolsty Lug area are trying to break out along the Zeleny Shlyakh – Nizhny Klyn line. Meanwhile, to the north, Ukrainian formations on armored vehicles broke through to Novoivanovka and drove along the central street of the settlement, firing at residential buildings from an M1A1SA Abrams tank and an M2A2 Bradley IFV. This is the first recorded case of the use of American-made M1A1SA Abrams in the Kursk region.
▪️In the Sudzha district, footage from objective control allowed to clarify the configuration of the front line near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, where a drone strike was carried out on the AFU’s forward positions. In the central part of the temporarily occupied territory of the district, Russian drones struck an enemy artillery crew in Zazulevka, and the “Inokhodets” UAV hit the position of the “Nota” EW system, camouflaged in the forest belt on the outskirts of Zaoleshanka, which merges territorially with the district center.
In addition, in the area of the village of Kolmakov, servicemen of the 11th Airborne Brigade destroyed an AFU robot with a 50-caliber Browning machine gun, which was rolling out onto the road leading to Makhnovka.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18653
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 6:51 utc | 166
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Donetsk Direction: Battles near Maksymilianivka and in Zoriane, Liberation of Zhelanne Druhe
Situation as of the end of the day on October 21, 2024
After the recent liberation of Maksymilianivka west of Donetsk, the Russian Armed Forces did not stop at their achieved successes and continued the offensive on several sections of the front.
▪️A local collapse of the enemy’s defense was recorded in the Tsukuryne – Hirnyk – Zhelanne Druhe area. Russian troops have finally cleared the fields northwest of Krasnohorivka. In addition, the enemy was recently driven out of Zhelanne Druhe and Sofiyivka.
🔻Today, there are reports that assault groups are already engaged in battles in Zoriane. The troops crossed the crossing on the Volchya River and entered the village from the southeast. After that, the Russian infantry moved north and entrenched in the area of the school, near which they raised the flag. There is no information yet about the entry of the Russian Armed Forces into the western part of the village. The buildings of the village council and the House of Culture, for which the Ukrainian formations may try to cling, are located near the school.
▪️Northwest, assault groups advanced along the railway from the Tsukurynska Coal Preparation Plant towards Hirnyk. At the moment, clashes are taking place on the northwestern and northeastern outskirts of the settlement. Several streets have already come under the control of the Russian troops.
▪️To the south, the Russian Armed Forces continue to break through the enemy’s defenses towards Kurakhove. Russian assault troops have raised the flag in the “Energetik” dacha settlement, which is part of the administrative borders of the city.
▪️Simultaneously with this, the Russian troops achieved significant success near the N-15 highway. They managed to straighten out the front line south of Maksymilianivka along the highway, securing the flanks from possible counterattacks by the enemy. Advancement in this area will be through completely open and exposed terrain, which the Ukrainian formations are trying to take advantage of, including by using German Leopard 2A4 tanks.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18650
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 6:53 utc | 167
“According to the minister, the financing of these deliveries was made possible by France “collecting” 300 million euros in interest on frozen Russian assets in European banks, as agreed in June of this year by the leaders of the EU. ”
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 20 2024 16:48 utc | 23
STOP and think about that for one second. Think it through step by step. What’s the difference between…..
a) Collecting” 300 million euros in interest on frozen Russian assets
b) The ECB simply typing 300 million euros into the different reserve accounts of the banks who then pass it onto the supplier.
No difference, whatsoever. So they clearly don’t need to steal the interest of frozen Russian foreign currency. It was never about finding the money. The ECB can keystroke numbers into reserve accounts held by banks at the ECB as much as it wants.
So if it wasn’t about finding the money why did they do it this way ?
Because it is cover of giving stuff to Ukraine without exposing to European voters how money is created in the EU. As more and more people are starting to question where is all this money coming from they give to Ukraine. Yet, they say they don’t have enough money to fix pot holes. Or public sector workers who have pay freezes below inflation since the financial crash.
Plus they think it hurts Russia. It doesn’t because they are stupid.
Let me explain what ‘international reserves’ do. If you’ve been abroad to lots of places you’ll end up with a drawer full of foreign small change. In your drawer you might have some Korean Won, Japanese Yen, Polish Zloty, Bermuda cents and Gibraltar pennies alongside the usual US and Euro cents if you have travelled to these places. That’s where they sit – unused except to entertain small children with funny looking coins – because they are useless where you live. Yet technically they form part of your assets.
“International reserves” are really a drawer full of loose foreign change. They are of no real use in a country and can be completely ignored or written off to no operational effect.
They end up on the balance sheet of a central bank ( via the commercial banks reserve accounts held at the central bank ) because export entities within a nation want the currency of the nation to undertake local transactions – like paying their local workers. So they swap their foreign earnings for local currency.
Since that creates an FX risk for commercial operations, an excess of foreign currency in export surplus nations tends to bubble up until it ends up under the control of some state entity – often the central bank. There it sits – because not spending it tends to put downward pressure on the currency exchange rate which favours exports. Why countries who run a big trade surplus, export their way to growth, prefer to horde it.
Since the only strategic reason to export is to obtain imports, why should Russia continue to export anything if it is getting nothing material in return?
If that means layoffs in Russian export industries, then there is now plenty of work supplying armaments and equipment to the war machine, as well as substitute industries to replace imports – which will gain greater momentum thanks to elimination of foreign competition. People in Russia are not going to be unemployed. There is plenty of work to do right now supporting the war effort.
What about those in the West that were supplying exports to Russia? Where is the untapped source of demand in the world that will take those goods and services they can now no longer supply to Russia due to sanctions?
There isn’t one, and to believe in it is to believe in a fallacy of composition. Instead those western businesses will shrink, laying off people. That don’t have a national goal that will employ people instead. See Germany and other countries for details. Germany’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained at an over 3-year high of 6.0% in September 2024.
There is no untapped source of demand in the world. Germany was exporting to these places already. To hide the fact, they say it is because they lost cheap Russian energy. Even though we all know via Orban’s fight with von der Leyen in the EU parliament. They are still getting Russian energy via third parties.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 22 2024 7:45 utc | 168
“According to the minister, the financing of these deliveries was made possible by France “collecting” 300 million euros in interest on frozen Russian assets in European banks, as agreed in June of this year by the leaders of the EU. ”
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 20 2024 16:48 utc | 23
The only difference is an ideological stance. A fairy tale that ideologues shout all the time. They’ll say…
Collecting” 300 million euros in interest on frozen Russian assets in European banks to give to Ukraine. Is non inflationary and will add real value to the economy.
If the ECB keystroked 300 million euros to give directly to the suppluer. Well that will cause hyperinflation and we will end up like Zimbabwe and the Weimar republic and no state spending adds any value to the economy.
See how mental they are, filled with ideological hubris ?
Even though the pandemic showed very clearly as we all sat at home. Quite a lot of private sector activity adds about as much value to the economy as a government furlough payment.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 22 2024 8:00 utc | 169
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 21 2024 15:34 utc | 124
One wonders what Austin is whispering into Zelensky’s ear.
“US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has arrived in Kiev in a show of support for Ukraine, as Russia continues to make steady gains on the battlefield.
The Pentagon chief’s surprise visit to Kiev on Monday takes place just two weeks ahead of the US presidential election that is casting uncertainty over the future of Western support for the war against Russia.
This is Pentagon chief’s fourth visit to Ukraine under US President Joe Biden who is serving his final months in office.
A major summit of the leaders of allied countries, which was scheduled for this month in Ramstein, Germany, was canceled amid waning support for Kiev.”
at this point it occurs to me ??? where are all the foolish talkers – aluminum hats – crystal ball prophets who had announced austin’s premature death ????
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2024 8:06 utc | 170
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 22 2024 7:45 utc
They are also facing a problem of new competition from China. Made even worse because everyone just saw Russia replace all those high end machine tooling that Germany got a premium for due to reputation get replaced with Chinese tooling without a hiccup in Russian output. Even worse with many Russian firms finding much of the Chinese tooling to be of equal or superior quality. Major mistake as normally it would have taken a decade or two for purchasing managers to take the risk.
Posted by: Badjoke | Oct 22 2024 8:08 utc | 171
Posted by: Badjoke | Oct 22 2024 8:08 utc | 179
Exactly, that as well. Well said Badjoke.
Job losses everywhere because they think every other country has lost their sovereignty like Eurozone countries have. Actually believed Putin’s exports funds Putin’s war. Missing the glaring fact Russia issues the Rouble.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 22 2024 8:16 utc | 172
Job losses everywhere because …
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 22 2024 8:16 utc | 180
—
Jobs are being lost in the West because work there is no longer rentable. The reason work isn’t rentable, broadly described as “the crisis of Capital”, was outlined over 150 years ago. It has nothing to do with sovereignty or banknotes and everything to do with production and consumption.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 22 2024 8:34 utc | 173
The situation with desertion in the Ukrainian army is constantly getting worse, and the government is trying to solve this problem by increasing repression within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which could provoke an internal rebellion. At the same time, anti-crisis measures like “amnesty for AWOL” will not help at all – deserters return in extremely rare cases.
At the same time, forced mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not increase the country’s combat readiness, and also leads to even more mass desertion. “My acquaintances who are now at the front, mainly unit commanders, say that those arriving thanks to such mobilization are incapable ballast,” says political strategist Sergei Gaidai, adding that out of 25 mobilized people, one person is ready to participate in hostilities, and the rest either die first or desert.
According to estimates by Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Boyko, who serves in the Ukrainian army, the number of deserters who have left their places of service is about 200 thousand. Boyko noted that no more than a third of cases are registered, since the State Bureau of Investigation is fundamentally hiding crimes related to military service.
According to him, the SBI only investigates cases that can be sold profitably, and commanders of military units have to go to court to force investigators to enter the relevant notifications into the Unified Register of Pre-Trial Investigations. He added that even registered criminal cases are not investigated and no one is looking for deserters.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24692
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 9:00 utc | 174
How thing currently work in practice.
https://t.me/Lunay14/20881
Detecting FPV Drone Operators: Tips and Tricks
The accuracy of direction finding depends on the distance of the UAV. Typically, stationary electronic reconnaissance (SAR) systems are no closer than 10 km, and mobile ones are no closer than 3 km. At a range of 5 km, the direction finding error is 200 meters, and at a distance of 10 km – 400 meters
The higher the drone in the sky, the further it is “visible” to SAR, so operators try to fly as low as possible. When launched, FPV drones do not take off abruptly, but follow to the side at an angle at a low altitude, then rise higher, changing the route towards the target, but not closer than a few hundred meters
If the operator is at a height, directional antennas with the narrowest possible “beam” are used, for example, wave channels with a large number of elements. The FPV drone operator will definitely take advantage of the opportunity to cover the antenna with something metal (at a distance of at least 1.5 meters on the sides) to “cut off” the side lobes of the antenna radiation, working, for example, from the depth of the room through a window (~ 1 meter from the window).
If a repeater is used that “hangs” in the sky, it can be seen at a distance of up to 40 kilometers. The CrossFire and LRS signals are well known to radio intelligence, so if the repeater flies, it is located as far away as possible.
The accuracy of the SIGINT will not be so high that artillery could effectively work on the operator. The error in the operation of artillery and direction finding makes this task extremely difficult. For additional reconnaissance, if possible, reconnaissance UAVs are used, the task of which is to visually find the operator in the specified square. Here, the camouflage of the transport and the position play a major role, the detection of which will give away the location of the operator.
It is also worth considering that the FPV drone transmits a video image, which is analog and not encrypted, which makes it easier to intercept. The image usually indicates the flight range. By analyzing the image, the destruction point and the flight vector, you can roughly determine the takeoff point if the pilot was moving in a straight line
@urga_74
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 22 2024 9:00 utc | 175
“India and China took over the cheap end. Now they are high quality, high tech, launching spacecraft and ICBMs.”
Up to a point. For stuff of national defence importance, I agree. But I advise that you read the book “Poorly Made In China” or search for “quality fade”.
For India, try this:
https://fortune.com/2013/05/15/dirty-medicine/
“The previous year in India, the boy had developed a serious ear infection. A pediatrician prescribed Ranbaxy’s version of amoxiclav, a powerful antibiotic. For three scary days, his son’s 102° fever persisted, despite the medicine. Finally, the pediatrician changed the prescription to the brand-name antibiotic made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Within a day, his fever disappeared. Thakur hadn’t thought about it much before. Now he took the boy in his arms and resolved not to give his family any more Ranbaxy drugs until he knew the truth.”
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 22 2024 10:19 utc | 176
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 22 2024 10:19 utc | 177
This story doesn’t prove what’s stated or assumed. Maybe it proves that Forbes is financed by gsk and not fromanbaxy. 😎
Posted by: Mario | Oct 22 2024 10:51 utc | 177
❗️💰Corruption scandals with regional MSECs continue:
The SBU exposed the head of the Mykolaiv regional MSEC, Vera Belyakova, who was also engaged in corrupt extortion from those wishing to evade conscription.
More than 450 thousand dollars and an impressive collection of jewelry hidden at different addresses were found at her home.
Most of the official’s wealth was found in the apartment of her son, a medical student; the SBU also found a Russian passport on him. The guy obtained Russian citizenship at the consulate general in Odessa, even before the start of military action. His mother also registered 3 undeclared apartments in his name 🤷♂️
Yes, in addition to the situation with the decaying prosecutor’s office (and not only in the Khmelnytsky region, but in the country as a whole), Zelensky will have something to speak about at the National Security and Defense Council. It’s time to dismiss not only the Prosecutor General, but also the Minister of Health.
When we wrote that there were no more free cells in banks in cities and districts, we meant exactly this – everything is filled with cash. But in addition to the prosecutor’s office and the Medical and Social Expertise Commission, there is also the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the TCC with courts and other local officials… 🧩
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 11:11 utc | 178
In the Ugledar direction, Russian troops have advanced north of Vodyanoye and in the Katerinovka area.
The Russian Armed Forces are trying to push through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions south of Bogoyavlenka and in Katerinovka. In addition, a Russian detachment may enter the rear of the Ukrainian group here, strengthening its positions in the Maksimilianovka area, creating a bridgehead from which they can go south and strike the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ rear at Uspenovka.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21299
In the Pokrovsk direction, the main battles are for Selidovo.
The situation in Selidovo is very difficult for the Ukrainian troops, Russian troops have taken the industrial zone and part of the private sector in the north and east. Ukrainian military personnel are writing about the worsening situation in Selidovo, where urban battles are already underway and only one supply road remains.
A Ukrainian soldier with the call sign Muchnoy reports that Russian units are advancing in the city, conducting attacks from the north, east and south. They have not reached the high-rise buildings in the city center, where the main fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is located.
Muchnoy also confirms that assaults are already underway on Vishnevoe to the west of Selidovo in order to cut the city off from Pokrovsk.
Thus, Russian units are trying to reach the Solenaya River east of Vishnevoe in order to gain control of the last road that enters Selidovo from the west (from the Pokrovsk side). If they succeed, they will have about half a kilometer to go to get there. And thus the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison will be surrounded.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Lieutenant Alex confirms that the Russian Armed Forces have managed to gain a foothold in the private sector in the eastern part of Selidovo, and an offensive is underway on the city center. This advance was facilitated by the previous successes of the Russian Armed Forces on the flanks.
Ukrainian Armed Forces sniper Konstantin Proshinsky writes that the main reason for the advance of the Russian army is the lack of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel to block all possible entry routes for Russian units moving in small groups.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21300
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 11:14 utc | 179
165, DS:
Looks like in Kursk, we are back to the “resisted counterattacks” cope. I don’t want to hear about resisted counterattacks. I want to hear about RFA hoovering up territory. If you are telling me you resisted a counterattack, than you’re telling me you’re not moving forward.
Add onto that, that often the “resisted counterattack” does not mean UFA did not take any territory, just didn’t take every town they were going for. And note, there’s are actually a geolocation for some of the UFA reversals of RFA’s salient:
https://t.me/brygada47/1031 https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7199 https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/21460
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 22 2024 11:19 utc | 180
Skruffy video on latest Kursk stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3F9xKMxJck
I think his discussion of the Novoivanovka sector (UFA counterattack) is quite reasonable. At a minimum, it has taken pressure off of Malaya Loknea, via a very long, thin RFA tentacle. (Note the “resisted counterattack” cope of the RFA milbloggers, has stopped mentioning ML. Just talking about contested towns well to the west.)
The discussion of Volfino/Veseloe, I find more speculative. I don’t think the single geoloc 0.25 km across the border means much. Skruff has sort of had a theory of “pivot” and is maybe a little overeager to discuss tiny bits of evidence that might indicate the hypothesis is true.
I don’t really buy the pivot guess. I mean sure it’s possible and time will tell. But my Bayesian prior is that if you are getting pushed back at A, you are unlikely to be able/willing to advance at A prime (very close to A). At a minimum, I think this sort of pivot would happen where you are stuck and just probe for opportunities along a line. But that’s not the case here. More like RFA forces in the field were able to drive UFA forces in the field back.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 22 2024 11:31 utc | 181
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 21 2024 13:33 utc | 114
«the lack of a true frontline in much of Kursk»
There is no “true frontline” in the fight to stop the ukrainian invasion and ethnic cleansing attempt of the Donbas and Crimea, the front it way too long and the troop numbers are way too low. It is nowhere like WW2 with many millions of troops.
Ukraine and Russia are not like countries in western Europe which are densely built or have lots of mountains; the analogy I have often made is that the vast and largely empty ukrainian/russian plain is like a sea, with some towns and cities as (often fortified) islands in it, and the two armies are like fleets in that sea fighting when they occasionally meet, usually near islands.
Posted by: Blissex | Oct 22 2024 11:31 utc | 182
Assault on Selidovo at 12:00 10/22/24…
The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ paramilitary channels assess the situation in Selidovo as grave. Moreover, the situation is deteriorating very quickly for them.
Some of them claim that the Russian army has already taken control of half of the city.
This is mainly the industrial zone in the east (partially in the north) and the private sector in the eastern and southern parts of the city. The main defense belt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (based on high-rise buildings) is still under enemy control.
Moreover, the situation is currently in very high dynamics. Our units are trying to reach the Solenaya River east of Vishnevoye in order to gain visual control of the last road that enters Selidovo from the west (from Pokrovsk). If they succeed, it will be just a little more than half a kilometer away. And thus, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ garrison will find itself in a mousetrap.
I repeat, the situation is very dynamic and today may well bring us good news.
As in the Gornyak-Kurakhovka area.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun to retreat from Selidovo due to the tactical encirclement of the city, the situation is completely repeating Ugledar.
Our military themselves are leaving their positions without an order, due to the lack of supplies and rotation, so as not to end up surrounded in the city. The General Staff is urgently transferring military special forces from Pokrovsk to hold back the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24695
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 11:34 utc | 183
Liman direction 10/22/24: Novosadovoye…
The official report of the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that our troops liberated the settlement of Novosadovoye.
I can neither confirm nor deny this yet (unfortunately, the command in this section of the front has already been noticed bragging), but in general this is a completely expected event.
As I wrote earlier, given the total lack of reserves, the enemy is exposing secondary directions (which undoubtedly include Limanskoye), which gives us the opportunity to move forward in them.
Moreover, so far all these movements cannot lead to a serious result. The right bank of the Zhuravka River is steep and difficult to access. Moreover, it is also separated by a number of ponds, which make this area absolutely impregnable for attacks.
And therefore, the enemy’s withdrawal to this right bank, while holding us back with rearguard battles, is inevitable.
The only thing the enemy will try to prevent is the crossing of our troops in the Torskoye-Zarechny area.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2024 11:37 utc | 184
185, DS:
Took me a while to find that on the DS Map. Sector has been so slow, I don’t know it. (Had to do Google maps to locate the hamlet…different transliterations make the spelling a challenge for searches.)
I agree that the W bank of those ponds is a great defensive line for the UFA. However, very interesting that RFA has not even been able to hoover up the E bank of those ponds. No significant change for months. UFA controls E of the ponds for several klicks.
Funny about the “bragging” comment. Even some of the pro RFA YTer and Twitter commenters are getting wise to that propensity. Several recent claimed salients and captures in this broader area turned out to be BS. And there is even speculation that the commanders are feeding lies up the chain of command!
(This is absolutely not a new thing in warfare or intelligence. Even with direct access to own force reports, you have to water down what “our side” is claiming. They always want to take credit for more than what they did. Pilots were notorious for this in WW2. So much that only gun camera footage was credited for kills, because of the “lying aces”.)
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 22 2024 12:03 utc | 186
LUGANSK, October 22. /TASS/. Russian troops have destroyed strategic positions of the Ukrainian army near the settlement of Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), military expert Andrey Marochko told TASS on Tuesday.
I expect the AFU to try to hold the the oskil river and lyman
“Russian troops destroyed the enemy’s strongholds east of the settlement of Terny as a result of their advance. These positions of Ukraine’s armed formations were located on strategic heights and were of key importance for Ukrainian militants,” the military expert said.
The Ukrainian army attempted to regain control of the strategic positions but was unsuccessful. “A part of [Ukrainian] assault personnel fled the battlefield after an attempt to go into battle,” he added.
Marochko previously told TASS on October 16 that Russian forces could begin “to seriously press the Ukrainian combat group stationed near the settlement of Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic after they had liberated the community of Nevskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic.”
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 22 2024 12:12 utc | 187
However, have you perchance considered the effectiveness of a Ukie issued Pickle Jar, as claimed, versus an incoming salvo of Russkie 152mm artillery shells ?
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 21 2024 19:51 utc | 139
I’ve been saying that FPV drones are effective weapons but they don’t replace artillery. Tube and rocket artillery have capabilities that FPV drones don’t provide.
It’s great to have a sniper in the squad but he doesn’t replace the machine gunner. Sometimes you can see the enemy and pick them off one by one but some times you just want to fill an area with lead … or keep their heads down while you move.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 22 2024 12:15 utc | 188
I expect the AFU to try to hold the the oskil river
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 22 2024 12:12 utc | 188
—
The hill on the right bank of the Oskil presents a practically insurmountable obstacle. Its crazy that the Ukrainians cling to the left bank. They should retreat across the river and await to be flanked from their rear.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 22 2024 12:20 utc | 189
Mario | Oct 22 2024 10:51 utc | 178
Is the internet not available to you?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranbaxy_Laboratories#Controversies
In May 2013, Ranbaxy pleaded guilty and paid $500 million in fines,for felony charges relating to the manufacture and distribution of certain adulterated drugs made at two of Ranbaxy’s manufacturing facilities in India, and misrepresenting clinical generic drug data. Ranbaxy pleaded guilty to three felony FDCA counts, and four felony counts of knowingly making materially false statements to the FDA. Included in the adulterated products were antiretroviral (ARV) drugs destined for treatment of HIV/AIDS in Africa. In September 2013, further problems were reported, including apparent human hair in a tablet, oil spots on other tablets, toilet facilities without running water, and a failure to instruct employees to wash their hands after using the toilet. Ranbaxy was prohibited from manufacturing FDA-regulated drugs at the Mohali facility until it complied with United States drug manufacturing requirements. In 2014, The FDA notified Ranbaxy Laboratories, Ltd., that it was prohibited from manufacturing and distributing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from its facility in Toansa, India, for FDA-regulated drug products. The FDA’s inspection of the Toansa facility, which concluded on 11 January 2014, identified significant CGMP violations. These included Toansa staff retesting raw materials, intermediate drug products, and finished API after those items failed analytical testing and specifications, in order to produce acceptable findings, and subsequently not reporting or investigating these failures. In 2019 author Katherine Eban published Bottle of Lies,an in-depth investigation of Ranbaxy. In addition to the incidents described above, Eban describes internal struggles within the FDA as investigators who might have shut down Ranbaxy were overruled due to pressure to increase the supply of cheap generic drugs.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 22 2024 12:24 utc | 190
Back on topic, BBC News
“Putin gathers allies to show West’s pressure isn’t working”
But critics point to differences within Brics. “Likeminded” is not a word you would use to describe the current membership. “In some ways it’s a good job for the West that China and India can never agree about anything. Because if those two were really serious, Brics would have enormous influence,” notes Jim O’Neill, former Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs. “China and India are doing their best to avoid wanting to attack each other a lot of the time.”
But just down the page, from a day earlier:
“India and China agree to de-escalate border tensions”
India and China have agreed on patrolling arrangements to de-escalate tensions along a disputed Himalayan border which has seen deadly hand-to-hand clashes in recent years, India’s top diplomat has said.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 22 2024 12:29 utc | 191
Funny about the “bragging” comment. Even some of the pro RFA YTer and Twitter commenters are getting wise to that propensity. Several recent claimed salients and captures in this broader area turned out to be BS. And there is even speculation that the commanders are feeding lies up the chain of command!
(This is absolutely not a new thing in warfare or intelligence. Even with direct access to own force reports, you have to water down what “our side” is claiming. They always want to take credit for more than what they did. Pilots were notorious for this in WW2. So much that only gun camera footage was credited for kills, because of the “lying aces”.)
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 22 2024 12:03 utc | 187
Deception is an intergal part of warfare … not just in warfare but hunting … you don’t want your prey to understand your intentions or discover your movements and you don’t want your enemy to either.
This is what I find funny about people complaining about Dima’s coverage of the war … it’s like they expect him, or any other mapper or blogger to publish the true events on the battlefield while both sides are doing everything in their power to keep their movements secret.
This is the unvarnished truth. We won’t know what really happened in this war until all the archives are opened, all the redactions are uncovered and everyone whose reputations could be tarnished are long dead. For example the Russians are protecting Georgy Zukhov’s reputation by not releasing the true number of losses suffered by the Red Army during Operation Mars … to this day we can only guess because the Russians also have the war diaries of the German units who fought in that operation … it comes down to Franz halders and other German officers memoires as to our story of that battle and it’s not like they don’t have reputations to protect either.
Frankly I don’t expect the truth so I’m not upset or outraged to find this ot that talking head is mistaken. I also have a deep interest in propaganda and deceptive tactics so the bullshit is just as interesting to me as what’s happening on the battlefield. Embrace the bullshit … the truth will come out in time.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 22 2024 12:39 utc | 192
The hill on the right bank of the Oskil presents a practically insurmountable obstacle. Its crazy that the Ukrainians cling to the left bank. They should retreat across the river and await to be flanked from their rear.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 22 2024 12:20 utc | 190
Now the Oskil soon the dnieper 😀
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 22 2024 13:01 utc | 193
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 22 2024 11:31 utc | 182
Skruffy’s Kursk video helped understand the situation better. Unlike Dima, who based on one old video of an Abrams, took a huge swath of red territory off the board and called it a “gray zone.” In contrast, Skruffy’s maps showed a lot more fine-grain detail with more limited change of territory. Looks like a UAF counter-attack with some limited success in stopping the encirclement that was developing towards Mara Loknya.
I think I’m done with Dima and will stick with Weeb, DPA + Suriyak and a sprinkling of Skruffy, to keep me honest.
Posted by: Blissex | Oct 22 2024 11:31 utc | 183
That’s a good way of looking at it. Ukraine is a huge country with lots of open fields. I think this war comes down to economic damage and that is why the recent RF gains in the Donbass are much more significant than some fields in Kursk.
NATO has to answer for the lack of any strategic goal in Kursk. As opposed to, say Pokrovsk with that coke plant that the entire Ukrainian metallurgical industry relies on. Russia doesn’t even have to take control of it – they are in artillery range and could just bombard it to shut it down for safety reasons. Not sure why they don’t do that. Maybe they want to take it intact.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 22 2024 13:53 utc | 194
HB_Norica@193…..anyone who hasn’t figured out the true nature of the battlefield by now, is like fat cat Generals, eating too much pop corn.
Ukies still holding, Ukie still attacking…..but yeah, they’re done.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 22 2024 13:56 utc | 195
Ukies still holding, Ukie still attacking…..but yeah, they’re done.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 22 2024 13:56 utc | 196
You don’t stop throwing punches just because you’re losing the fight.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 22 2024 14:11 utc | 196
There ought to be a specific term for this paradox: the more unpopular and incompetent a government is, the more obsessed with war it becomes. France desperately wants Euro-war in Ukraine while Britain treats the Ukraine war as priority one while its nation freezes and decays.
It’s truly remarkable.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 22 2024 14:30 utc | 197
@ HB_Norica | Oct 22 2024 12:15 utc | 189
Oh. no, no, no. Excellent post by you IMV, as is your norm … was brief satirical remark, in support, was exhausted, accidentally skipped the /s 🙂
Limitations of text only discourse, fatigue & my usable five thumbs. 🙁
See: Outraged | Oct 22 2024 0:13 utc | 157
Cheers & Prost!
So Chasov yar seems to be a hot spot https://tass.com/politics/1859853
Presence of two hundred mercenaries in Chasov Yar confirmed — military intelligence
It is noted that intercepted radio messages “indicate their frequent refusal to obey combat orders”
MOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. About 200 mercenaries from southern Europe and Latin America – Spain, Portugal and Cuba – are known to be fighting for Ukraine as members of Ukraine’s foreign legion in Chasov Yar, the chief of staff of the 88th volunteer brigade’s reconnaissance center, has told TASS.
“The enemy garrison still remains capable of fighting despite massive losses. According to the reconnaissance data obtained by the 88th brigade (Espanola), the enemy is actively using foreign legion units in the Chasov Yar area. Most of the mercenaries are from Latin America and southern Europe [Cuba, Portugal and Spain]. Roughly there are 200 of such ‘soldiers of fortune’ in Chasov Yar at the moment, but their morale ever more often leaves much to be desired,” said the reconnaissance officer who introduced himself with his call sign, Chukcha.
He also noted that intercepted radio messages “indicate their frequent refusal to obey combat orders.”
Previously, Chukcha told TASS that units of Ukraine’s foreign legion detachments and 23rd separate brigade’s foreign legion were the most active in the Chasov Yar area.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 22 2024 16:06 utc | 199
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 22 2024 12:24 utc | 191
I’ve internet, simply I use a grain of salt, let’s say a big grain, when dealing with info from internet and expecially when big money is piled up on the info.
I would be rather surprised if FDA would ever recognize that a non USA drug from a non big USA factory is possibly more effective than a USA one.
Remember Huawei, do you really think that they spy while Apple do not? 🤣
Posted by: Mario | Oct 22 2024 16:33 utc | 200