Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 17, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-249

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Russia remains stuck in a quagmire it cannot extract itself from.
Posted by: Debbie | Oct 18 2024 22:11 utc | 200
Now do Ukraine…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 22:25 utc | 202
Debbie does Donetsk

Posted by: Vargas | Oct 18 2024 22:47 utc | 201

If a shoe conversation breaks out, then I’ll know the women are legit.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 22:52 utc | 202

Debbie, 200:
Very impressive post. I agree with much of it, but really just appreciate the insights and synthesis, regardless. Some good signal to raise the SNR.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 22:55 utc | 203

the Russian president noted that Moscow fully understands the impact the prolonged hostilities have had on global affairs. “Russia understands that the conflict in Ukraine is an ‘irritant’ in global affairs and strives to reach peace as soon as possible,”
Shorter version:
“Fuck You.”

Posted by: Translator | Oct 18 2024 23:00 utc | 204

@Debbie | Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:11:00 GMT | 200

Having no clear military objective or the military force to achieve any political objectives, was a severe strategic mistake.

How do you know there are “no clear military objectives”? There are at least three that I know of- de-militarization of Ukraine, de-Nazification of Ukraine, and the restoration/annexation of occupied Russian territory – Kursk, the Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
As for force requirements, do you know the exact number of Russian forces needed to accomplish these goals? Do tell, master strategist.

Posted by: James M. | Oct 18 2024 23:15 utc | 205

Uh-huh…

Scholz criticizes Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized the key points of the Victory Plan of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as their implementation will allegedly lead to further escalation of the conflict.
Scholz said this on October 17 after the EU summit in Brussels, his words are quoted by Bild.
Scholz said he considers it his priority to ensure that russia’s war against Ukraine does not turn into russia’s war against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
He stated that he has no intention of changing the decision to provide Ukraine with German TAURUS cruise missiles.
Scholz also does not agree with the quick invitation of Ukraine to NATO. Therefore, he intends to block such an offer, if it is received.
On the question of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, Scholz referred to the resolution of the last summit of the alliance, which stated that Kyiv can receive an invitation only after fulfilling all conditions for acceptance and consent of all allies.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on October 17, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that the Victory Plan presented by ZelenskyY allegedly frightened him. Therefore, he intends to seek direct negotiations between the EU and russia to end the war.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1042249-scholz-criticizes-zelenskyy-s-victory-plan
But what the heck, it’s just more signal-to-noise ratio. What really counts of course the mm² of territory gained or lost…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 23:16 utc | 206

With apologies to The Smiths…
Panic in the offices of Berlin
Panic in the offices of Brussels
Hang the Zee guy
Hang the Zee guy
Hang the Zee guy

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 23:25 utc | 207

@Cannuck 11
Quote. “Why bomb ‘decision making centers’ and possilby starting WW3 when you are WINNING!!!!
You redundant, pessimistic, myopic ‘song and dance’ is way, way out of tune
Posted by: canuck | Oct 17 2024 14:19 utc | 11
It is your type apologist for Putin’s blunder after blunder that is main cause of Russian dithering in the war and preventing any decisive movement to win. And you dare call out others who say that decision making centres needed to be an isolated long time sgo-why is it that only Russia fears Escalation and WW 3 and not Anglos 5evil eyes ?

Posted by: Sam | Oct 18 2024 23:27 utc | 208

It is your type apologist for Putin’s blunder after blunder that is main cause of Russian dithering in the war and preventing any decisive movement to win.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 18 2024 23:27 utc | 214
Dont talk fuckin bollox, man! Putin is playing it the way the Russian people want him too. Thats why he still has 78% for his actions! The fact is, hes draining the west of credibility whilst increasing Russia’s influence on the world stage as we will see in Kazan!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 18 2024 23:32 utc | 209

Jill | Oct 18 2024 22:34 utc | 205

Then there’s things like Kursk. The list goes on. But I have to go out shopping, so I’ll leave it there. Makes no difference anyway. No matter what I say Russia remains stuck in a quagmire it cannot extract itself from.
Posted by: Debbie | Oct 18 2024 22:11 utc | 200
Before I go to have my hair done at the hairdressers, just a quick reply Debsie regarding your comment. All wars are quagmires. Kiev is deeper in a quagmire than Russia, far deeper. It is in danger of being sucked under. Russia meanwhile, continues to control the battlefield on all fronts. Its just a matter of time before Kiev collapses completely in the mother of all messes. Bye dearie….hope you get what you want shopping!

Oh Jill ! Nasty ! For a moment there I thought you were going to “dear” her !

Oooh, you did !

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Oct 18 2024 23:52 utc | 210

Dont talk fuckin bollox, man! Putin is playing it the way the Russian people want him too. Thats why he still has 78% for his actions! The fact is, hes draining the west of credibility whilst increasing Russia’s influence on the world stage as we will see in Kazan!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 18 2024 23:32 utc | 215
Correct hermie! Putin is playing the long game. Hes winning, hes keeping his population on his side, hes keeping relations with friendly countries sweet. All this while Ukraine and NATO is rolled back and shown up for what they are…paper tigers!

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Oct 18 2024 23:59 utc | 211

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 22:25 utc | 202
@ Jill | Oct 18 2024 22:34 utc | 205

Now do Ukraine …

LOL. Shopping or not, methinks we’ll likely be kept waiting, ’til The Twelfth of Never …
@ Vargas | Oct 18 2024 22:47 utc | 207

Debbie does Donetsk

Out of character … apologies, yer no AI-bot. I’ll pay a buck for that one. LOL :))

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 0:11 utc | 212

Well, Anonymous, that 9 min video you linked to was worthwhile, I have to admit. It should probably replace your beloved DS maps, as even though that guy was pro-UAF, he had a lot of good insights and was able to remain objective.
Seems to me that the move to Malaya Loknia or however you spell it is a smart one, there are only so many supply roads into the north western pocket of the Kursk incursion, and cutting them off spells doom for whatever UAF or foreigners are left there.
Too bad for them. It seems like Russia is just toying with them, at this point. Rain/fog season is here so why not just wait for the weather to turn bad, and mass air drop in Russian special forces to take out bridges or secure them?
I really question how many UAF are left in that part of Kursk, at least … probably stragglers and meat recruits who can’t offer much resistance.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 19 2024 0:22 utc | 213

Jens Skolen | Oct 19 2024 0:14 utc | 219

Unfortunately, contrary to much conjecture, it will not be Russia who owns and controls New Ukraine via some New Kievan government.

Yes dear.
Very droll !

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Oct 19 2024 0:32 utc | 214

220:
Supposedly the rain/mud is affecting the RFA advance. (UFA also, but advances are harder.)
We are heading into a couple weeks of dry weather and the expectation is that this favors RFA advances more then UFA defense/sustainment.
Skruffy is quite good. After I watched his Pokrovk video from months ago, I understood the size of the challenge and why RFA couldn’t just waltz in there. I don’t agree with him no everything, but he is thoughtful.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 19 2024 0:35 utc | 215

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 18 2024 23:32 utc | 215
Correct hermie! Putin is playing the long game. Hes winning, hes keeping his population on his side, hes keeping relations with friendly countries sweet. All this while Ukraine and NATO is rolled back and shown up for what they are…paper tigers!
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Oct 18 2024 23:59 utc | 217
🤔In a nutshell Hermius. I think so too…

Posted by: Jesper from London | Oct 19 2024 0:46 utc | 216

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 18 2024 23:32 utc | 215
Correct hermie! Putin is playing the long game. Hes winning, hes keeping his population on his side, hes keeping relations with friendly countries sweet. All this while Ukraine and NATO is rolled back and shown up for what they are…paper tigers!
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Oct 18 2024 23:59 utc | 217
“Putin is playing the long game.”
The “long game” itself is a victory for Putin and Russia. The whole smo has been at the pace decided by russia…slow, methodical. Putin’s a smart fella!

Posted by: Fyador | Oct 19 2024 1:00 utc | 217

Putin is playing the long game. Hes winning, hes keeping his population on his side, hes keeping relations with friendly countries sweet @215
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Oct 18 2024 23:59 utc | 217
Seems theres a shift in the global power tectonic plates and these conflicts in Donbas, Gaza and Taiwan are the rumblings of the cracks forming before the earthquake.

Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Oct 19 2024 1:16 utc | 218

@ Debbie ? All. Actually = SeanAU…DeepShit/Complicated/MoonieCultist/stranger/horseguards/luis/DramaX/Moonraker/… NOT RSH.

Please choose ONE unique username and stick to it. Using multiple names is sockpuppeteering and will get you banned.

Your nic was born on Oct 17 2024 3:00 utc.
A quite remarkable initial spamming in three sequential posts, thence a tour de force of utter BS that would make the likes of Shadowbanned/1917/Anonymous proud.

My educated conclusion taking in all manner of studies and evidence is

So sad that you, will forever be unaware, you are a card carrying member of the Dunning-Kruger club. Sad, so very sad. Pitiable. Obsessed. Would you care for a virtual hug & a quite cry, faux Debbie ?

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 1:28 utc | 219

Vargas | Oct 18 2024 22:47 utc | 207
Debbie does Donetsk
Out of character … apologies, yer no AI-bot. I’ll pay a buck for that one. LOL :))
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 0:11 utc | 218

Vargas with a capital “V” is not the dumb troll we got to know and live, it’some impostor aiming for your buck.

Posted by: Tim | Oct 19 2024 2:00 utc | 220

@ Jens Skolen | Oct 19 2024 0:14 utc | 219
Yawn, another transparent sock. Imposed Unconditional Surrender, no less.
@ Debbie/SeanAU, et al. Apologies, overlooked your other aka, sockpuppet Crimethink. Rather rude to openly blatantly plagiarize & regurgitate, yet alas, that’s largely the limit of your abilities, along with dreary repetition, what. Oh, and if you actually purchased anything it wasn’t 3 pairs of shoes, it was another drawer full of virtual … socks. You even f*cked up the Judge Judy quote FFS, ‘but’ not by, D’Oh! PeterAU1 ? Your obsessions are not good for your failing mental health, sanity. Am concerned.
Do your lightbulbs, TV, command you to carry out your projected, deluded, extraordinarily generic, signature, faux virtual personas ? Virtual hug/quite cry, no ?
@b cleanup on ‘Ukraine Open Thread 2024-249’, yet again.

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 2:01 utc | 221

@ Tim | Oct 19 2024 2:00 utc | 235
Ah, so true. You’re correct, lower case v. Another instance of Debbie/SeanAU concurrently name stealing. All of it pointless, soon to be -deleted-. Sad.
@ Debbie. Other way around, re Jake Blanchard, as you well know. Outraged is known to b. Unique identifying email matched to one nic for over 20years. You’re incapable of correctly using the sites search function ? Dunning-Kruger & Peter-Principal combined! Sad. Now inadvertently amusing 🙂 Time for your nap & lie down, SeanAU ? Far too many screen pixels have expired. OUT

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 2:26 utc | 222

@paddy | Thu, 17 Oct 2024 23:49:00 GMT | 101

Might have been different if FDR lived.
Churchill helped crush any hope for enduring peace.
NATO was formed the year the German Federal Republic, the 3 west zone was established 1949

FDR’s term was up in 1948, and no way he runs again. So either Truman or Dewey would have been president in ’49.

Posted by: James M. | Oct 19 2024 3:43 utc | 223

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 2:01 utc | 236
Posted by: Jens Skolen | Oct 19 2024 2:55 utc | 242
Posted by: comrade simba | Oct 19 2024 4:06 utc | 245
Barflies, I understand you all being pissed off, but don’t take the dinglebat troll seriously and do not waste time replying at length.
From a light perusal of this current thread I have deduced-with a very high degree of probability-(thx. Bellincat/MI5) that Jake Blanchard/Riante /whatever has seen the Woke light and undergone gender therapy. Aussie Jake (??) is now Doughnut Debbie.
But the urge to rant psycho-philosophical vomit has evidently not been imparted by the high doses of female hormones.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 4:46 utc | 224

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 19 October 2024; 07:27 (GMT+3)⚡️
🔹In the #Kursk region, there are significant advances by the RFAF in the areas of #Viktorovka, #Martynovka and #Plekhovo. Without objective monitoring, it is too early to speak with certainty about the liberation of #Plekhovo without objective control personnel. They write from the ground about heavy battles. Nevertheless, the AFU defence was definitely broken through. A new element of the situation was two attempts to breach the border in the area of #Volfino and #Tetkino by two special forces groups of up to 8 men each. The enemy’s advance was revealed in advance by reconnaissance, and fire damage was inflicted. One group of the enemy was completely destroyed, the second with losses withdrew to the initial positions. The breakthrough of the border was not allowed, reports the ‘North Troops Grouping’. Units of the 106th Guards Airborne Division liberated the village of #Lyubimovka and the adjacent woodlands to it. Also, enemy resources wrote about the breakthrough of our armoured vehicles with a landing force in the direction of #Viktorovka, stating about the destruction of armoured vehicles, our dismounted landing force and the battle that ensued. There are reports about the liberation of #Leonidovo (east of #ZelenyShlyakh). The past day seriously complicated the position of the Nazis in the region.
🔹In the #Kupyansk direction, there is 👉 fighting in #Kruglyakovka, the zone of control of our troops in #Kolesnikovka is expanding.
🔹In #ChasovYar, the RFAF advanced in the Oktyabrsky (#Zhovtnevy) district up to Serov Street.
🔹In the #Toretsk (#Dzerzhinsk) area, our troops occupied the southern part of the #Shcherbinovka village on the eastern bank of the Krivoy Torets River, which means a serious movement in the issue of covering #Toretsk from the south.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, the coverage of #Selidovo continues.🗺👆To the south in the #Kurakhovo direction the RFAF are extending their zone of control south of #Maximilyanovka.
🛡During the night, the AFU attacked our regions with aircraft-type UAVs. The air defence forces destroyed and intercepted 16 Ukrainian UAVs. 13 UAVs were shot down over the territory of the #Bryansk region, 2 over the territory of the #Rostov region and 1 over the #Belgorod region.
🎯 The RFAF launched strikes over #Odessa region in the evening, reporting the destruction of an enemy air defence system. Geraniums were used during the night, including on the enemy’s capital region.

https://t.me/two_majors/34054

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 7:19 utc | 225

Been away for a day, and it appears that we need chest-high waders to wade through the thread.
And whatever happened to TL;DR – surely a long, meandering word salad by a newly minted nic should not be answered. At all. By anyone…..

Posted by: Waymad | Oct 19 2024 7:59 utc | 226

Perhaps Yeltsin or whomever master minded this on Russia’s side was as stupid or as corrupt as we thought-the Empire really f.cked that one up.
Posted by: canuck | Oct 18 2024 15:34 utc | 175

Yeltsin was the US candidate, select choice and puppet.
His task was to “liberate” all the Soviet Commons Assets
to the benefit of private individuals.
Then the sleeper Vladimir Putin was inserted.
Took a year or two for the US chickenhawks to realize this.
See the media climate changing to intensely bashing russia.
( especially in the “Putin’s Russia” leveraging domain.)

Posted by: MAKK | Oct 19 2024 8:10 utc | 227

And whatever happened to TL;DR – surely a long, meandering word salad by a newly minted nic should not be answered. At all. By anyone…..
Posted by: Waymad | Oct 19 2024 7:59 utc | 239
This text no human has written, and no human has read.
I guess these trolls just go to ChatGPT, and type “Write 1000 words on why Ukraine will win.” or “Explain why the blog “Moon of Alabama” is dysfunctional.”

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 19 2024 8:26 utc | 228

Germany announces latest delivery of earlier decision re supplying Ukraine
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Germany has delivered eight Leopard 1 tanks, 20 infantry fighting vehicles, Iris-T SLM and Iris-T SLS air defense systems and other weapons to Ukraine; AIM-9L missiles and thousands of attack drones are being prepared for delivery, according to an updated list of weapons delivered to Ukraine on the German government website.
The list of weaponry delivered to Ukraine on the German government website was last updated on September 19. The website says AIM-9L missiles, two TRML-4D multifunctional radar stations, 4,000 combat drones, 361 Songbird reconnaissance drones, thousands of rounds of 40-millimeter ammunition and winter clothing are being prepared for delivery in the coming weeks.
viasputniknews

Posted by: Jo | Oct 19 2024 8:52 utc | 229

Perhaps we could organize a ChatGPT competition. “Write a limerick about …”

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 19 2024 9:15 utc | 230

NK ORCS ABOUT TO ENTER THE SMO!!!
Western media is now promoting the narrative that North Korean troops (maybe in excess of 12,000) are training in eastern Russia and maybe employed to assist the RF in evicting the Nazis from the Kursk oblast. This information has come from highly reliable western intelligence sources including the South Korean intelligence services, so it is (extremely highly likely and probable) that this unwelcome development is true.
As if freight train loads of NK missiles and 152 mm ammunition are not a significant escalation, it is also implied that NK is sending washing machine and toaster chips as well as many thousands of specially sharpened shovels to aid the overstretched RF.
One glaring gap in the intelligence is whether or not the NK cannibal orcs will wield these demonic shovels against the UAF and western mercenaries themselves, or whether they will be simply donoted as aid to the Russian forces. Time will no doubt tell-particularly if BBC/CNN special correspondents are imbedded with the valiant Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 9:21 utc | 231

https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/19198
Regarding the situation in the Kursk region.
The enemy’s position continues to deteriorate rapidly. The enemy is trying to hold positions on one of the important lines along the line of the settlements of Lyubymivka, the settlements of Zelenyi Shlyakh, and the settlements of Novoivanivka.
At the moment, it can be noted that the enemy has lost the initiative and control of the situation in this area. They can avoid the ongoing collapse with their extremely adverse consequences only with the help of significant reserves.
The enemy command is deploying “fire brigades” to stop the destruction of this sector of the front. Thus, the management of the 116th separate division of the Territorial Defense, as well as the 145th and 148th separate divisions of the Territorial Defense, were moved to the Kursk direction.
As a result, one brigade and two battalions were transferred from the Kurakhove direction.
The enemy still has a certain margin of safety, but it is not infinite, because resources are burning and manpower is worn out faster than they have time to replenish them, at a certain point the consequences will affect the overall situation, we suspect that this will happen quite abruptly.

Posted by: guest | Oct 19 2024 9:24 utc | 232

This information has come from highly reliable western intelligence sources

I chortled at that.

Posted by: SOS | Oct 19 2024 9:24 utc | 233

The call it the Buryat batallion and no one bothers to check if they might be?
Doesn’t pass the smell check..

Posted by: SOS | Oct 19 2024 9:25 utc | 234

Complicated @ Oct 19 2024 7:37 utc | 237
You lost me at the copy/paste insults in your list and by the fact your are not exactly a contributor either. People don’t live for this block so the vanish and reappear – and I do when I am too sick of this.
Your post is a vote for a block on yourself.

Posted by: SOS | Oct 19 2024 9:35 utc | 235

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has revealed how Moscow will respond to Kiev’s “nuclear blackmail”.
He mentioned Article 4 of the partnership agreement with North Korea, which provides for mutual military support in the event of an attack.
.
Russia will respond to security threats, including “nuclear blackmail” by Kiev, within the framework of the partnership agreement with North Korea. This was stated by former President and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev on his page on the social network Vkontakte (VK).
Zelensky: Ukraine needs nuclear weapons or NATO membership
Zelensky: Ukraine needs nuclear weapons or NATO membership
Medvedev thus responded to statements that North Korea intends to send its military to the conflict zone in Ukraine. The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced a bill in the State Duma to ratify a partnership treaty with North Korea.
Medvedev referred to Article 4 of this agreement, which states:
“If one of the Parties finds itself in a state of war due to an armed attack by one or more states, the other Party shall immediately provide it with military assistance by all means at its disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of North Korea and the Russian Federation.”
Medvedev wrote:
“It is not advisable to examine how the said article of the treaty works. It contains real obligations of the responsible states […] we will respond to emerging security threats, including yesterday’s nuclear blackmail by the tormenting Ukrainian regime, strictly within the framework of the concluded treaty.”
Bild newspaper had previously reported that a few months ago, a Ukrainian official specializing in arms procurement claimed that Kyiv had the means and knowledge to develop nuclear weapons. Vladimir Zelensky denied reports of nuclear weapons development. The Ukrainian leader said:
“We never said that we are preparing to develop nuclear weapons […] that’s why we have no choice but NATO. That is our signal, but we are not building nuclear weapons.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to the Bild report by saying:
“Madmen. Of course, nothing will come of this – under any circumstances.”
Putin called such reports “another provocation” and promised that Moscow would not allow Ukraine to possess nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kyiv gave it up by joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear state. Now the country only has fuel for nuclear power plants.
.
.
https://rtde.live/russland/222989-medwedew-russland-wird-auf-kiews/

Posted by: ossi | Oct 19 2024 9:38 utc | 236

Posted by: Jo | Oct 19 2024 8:52 utc | 243
I wonder if they’ll be stupid enough to give the number of winter uniforms being supplied? Number crunching analysts love that sort of insignificantly significant data.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 9:21 utc | 245
I’ve noticed an increase in these narrative shaping stories recently, wonder if their frequency is linked to either the front-line situation, Harris’ deteriorating poll position or both.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 19 2024 10:12 utc | 237

Kursk direction on the morning of 19.10.24: attack on Viktorovka…
As expected, as soon as the weather improved, our units resumed offensive actions in the Kursk direction. And yesterday the main events took place on the Zeleny Shlyakh-Malaya Loknya highway between Novoivanovka and Viktorovka.
We took Novoivanovka and cleared it the day before, and in order to finally cut off the enemy group’s escape routes to the north and reach the rear (cutting the Sudzha-Lgov highway) of Malaya Loknya, we tried to make one dash (like on October 10) along the road from Ivanovka to the east and gain a foothold in Viktorovka.
In doing so, we would have completely cut off the garrison in Leonidovo from supplies.
The enemy was expecting such a move, and yesterday there was a heavy battle in this area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported three of our armored personnel carriers destroyed and an attack repelled. Our sources report consolidation at new lines (without specifying which ones).
Unfortunately, unverified information often comes from this line, and therefore I would not rush to “paint over the new controlled territories.” My channels do not provide accurate data yet. I think the situation will become clearer as the day progresses.
Our units also continued to finish off the encircled forces in the area of ​​Lyubimovka and Tolstoy Lug. This “enclave” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has not yet been cleared. But there have been successes.
And yesterday there were also battles in the area of ​​Plekhovo. Our channels have already reported the complete occupation of the village. But this is also premature.
Keep your fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18619

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 10:32 utc | 238

Ugledar direction as of the morning of 19.10.24…
Heavy fighting continues here in several areas at once. And it’s heavy for everyone.
Our units, having pushed through (precisely pushed through, not broken through) Maksimilianovka the day before, are trying to expand the bridgehead and expand it both to the south and to the west. As a result of yesterday’s fighting, they managed to reach the Kurakhovo-Donetsk highway south of the village and gain a foothold there
Our further advance here is extremely dangerous for the enemy. And not only in terms of holding Kurakhovo (I don’t expect quick results here), but also in terms of reaching the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense on the Bogoyavlenka-Novoukrainka line.
There were also active battles yesterday to liberate Katerinovka. There are partial successes.
And the fighting between Ugledar and Bogoyavlenka. Also with partial successes.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18621

Selidovo-Kurakhovskoye direction as of the morning of 10/19/24: Selidovo assault…
Here on the map there seem to be no particular changes, but the intensity of the fighting is constantly increasing. Our command has shifted all attention here to the assault on Selidovo, which has in fact already begun.
Yesterday we attacked not only bypassing the city from the north and south, but also occupied the railway construction plant on its northeastern outskirts.
The pressure on the enemy is being exerted along the entire perimeter of its defense, which does not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to understand where and with what force our attack will be carried out.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18622

Toretsk direction as of the morning of 10/19/24…
There are no particular changes on the map here either. Which also does not reflect the situation. In Toretsk, there are constant “local battles” for one house or another, which will ultimately result in another district of the city being occupied by us in a few days.
To the north and west of Novgorodskoye (New York) is about the same story.
And I repeat, this is typical for this section of the front during the inter-assault period.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18623

ChasovYar direction as of the morning of 19.10.24…
Here, as before (and as now near Toretsk) there are no sudden movements. The Russian Armed Forces are conducting a low-intensity offensive operation, in which our units are gradually (and if possible) advancing inside the Oktyabrsky microdistrict in Chasov Yar and in the south of the city in the industrial zone (which is mostly forested ravines and quarries).
Moreover, it is here that we have achieved the greatest success so far. And it is from here that we are already effectively threatening the enemy in Konstantinovka (until recently deep in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces).
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18624

Limanskoye + Severskoye directions as of the morning of 19.10.24: if only these talents were put into the right direction…
According to updated data, some of our successes in this area are as “virtual” as the successes of one of our brigades in the Severskoye area.
Unfortunately, some of our commanders, who pay very little attention to equipping their troops with modern means of combat (EW, drones, communications), use them extremely effectively to “confirm” their victories in reports.
This is where their ingenuity and imagination work (it would be better if it worked in a different direction). And, unfortunately, the same drones (now the enemy’s, which fly further and further) do not provide an opportunity to verify their boasts.
Moreover, the further, the greater the “depth of breakthroughs”.
And all this so far only leads to an increase in senseless losses in personnel. Alas, I am forced to state this once again.
I am not making this public because I want to. I am writing because I do not see any other way to stop all this. Unfortunately, I no longer have any hope for effective checks from Moscow in this matter.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18625

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 10:38 utc | 239

Posted by: Complicated | Oct 19 2024 7:37 utc | 237
Seems you are a reincarnation of the rabid, Lavrov’s Dog; just as bitter, just as deluded, just as senseless, just as laughable as that idiotic asshole.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 19 2024 10:45 utc | 240

In the Kursk direction, Russian troops were able to actually capture the village of Plekhovo. In particular, more than half of the village, which is semi-encircled, is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces (from the eastern outskirts, the Ukrainian garrison had to retreat, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces were in a fire pocket there and take more convenient positions in the western part), the rest of it is in the “gray zone”, where clashes are taking place. The Russians are using the tactic of enveloping from three sides and pushing out the Ukrainian units.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21265

In the Kursk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have broken through to the Viktorovka area.
Russian troops captured Novoivanovka and began moving into the rear of the Ukrainian group in the Malaya Loknya area (they are trying to squeeze the cauldron forming to the north). Russian airborne units attempted to enter Viktorovka at once, but they failed. Ukrainian troops were expecting such a move, and on the road from Novoivanovka to Viktorovka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces stopped the breakthrough. Ukrainian units destroyed three armored personnel carriers, but part of the Russian airborne forces managed to escape into the forests, and fighting is currently underway there.
Fighting also continues in the area of ​​Lyubimovka and Tolstoy Lug.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21267

In the Toretsk direction, Russian troops were able to make minor advances in the Leonidovka area.
In general, there are no significant changes in this section of the front. In Toretsk itself, local battles continue.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21268

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 10:46 utc | 241

Down South’s posts are a breath of sanity amidst the troll wars. Thank you.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 10:48 utc | 242

@Cannuck 11
Quote. “Why bomb ‘decision making centers’ and possilby starting WW3 when you are WINNING!!!!
You redundant, pessimistic, myopic ‘song and dance’ is way, way out of tune
Posted by: canuck | Oct 17 2024 14:19 utc | 11
“It is your type apologist for Putin’s blunder after blunder that is main cause of Russian dithering in the war and preventing any decisive movement to win. And you dare call out others who say that decision making centres needed to be an isolated long time sgo-why is it that only Russia fears Escalation and WW 3 and not Anglos 5evil eyes ?”
Posted by: Sam | Oct 18 2024 23:27 utc | 214
You really don’t understand strategy do you, Sam?
Russia wasn’t ready for all out economic sanctions in 2014-Putin did the very least -he took back Crimea- while dithering with the Empire with the ‘treaties’ he know were bogus all in order to have time for Russia to be ready to withstand sanctions when the inevitable SMO came..
You don’t comprehend the Empire’s dire economic situation-they are broke, the debt is increasing logarithmically so the longer the SMO lasts the weaker the Empire.
You are now officially, an ‘Intellectual Peasant’.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 19 2024 11:00 utc | 243

Assault on Selidovo at 14:00 19.10.24…
More and more confirmations are coming, and from both sides at once, that our units of the “Center” group have begun an assault on Selidovo.
According to the enemy, we managed to enter the first streets of the private sector of the city from the east and consolidate our positions on this line. Attempts to go further continue.
So far, this is not very critical for the enemy. The main line of his defense in the city is located along the line of high-rise buildings. It was there that we slowed down last time and were forced to retreat (in order to then begin enveloping Selidovo from the north and south).
Our aviation and artillery are also working on the city. Plus, attempts to make the envelopment of Selidovo from the south and north more dense are continuing.
Thus, it is obvious that a major assault on the city has begun.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18628

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 11:44 utc | 244

Posted by: Milites | Oct 19 2024 10:12 utc | 251
I’ve noticed an increase in these narrative shaping stories recently, wonder if their frequency is linked to either the front-line situation, Harris’ deteriorating poll position or both.
Yes. I’m wondering if this new narrative initiative is a “softening up” exercise aimed at the western public for justification of military action in east Asia?
I reckon some sort of confrontation with the PRC (probably over control of the South China sea) has been an important long-term goal of western strategists for some time. Although things are not going particularly well for the West in Ukraine, and now the ME is boiling over, there may be some impetus to speed the whole shit show up.
I did not expect any immediate action against PRC and NK, but I think it was bound to happen within the next few years. Given the current situations in Europe and the ME the collective West might see itself getting overstretched and opt for a wider conflict while it still retains significant resources-that is before it becomes too embroiled in fighting RF and defending “little Israel”
I admit to speculation here, but the western rhetoric against the PRC and NK has definitely increased lately, and some political/strategic considerations must be driving this.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 12:33 utc | 245

Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 12:33 utc | 264
To be fair, I think the Chinese claim to most of the South China Sea has about as much merit as the US promulgation of the Monroe doctrine, but the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.
I am certain that China would like the favourable trends of the last 30 years (the West exporting their industrial production to the Far East) to continue until the West is deindustrialised, but it’s possible that if, say, the US became heavily involved in the Middle East, China might see it as an opportunity not to be missed.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 12:50 utc | 246

Posted by: PeterAU1 | Oct 19 2024 11:18 utc | 262
You are, I’m sure, aware of the state of the RuAF’s in 2014, and all the equipment they’ve received, since, then that has proved vital in allowing Russia to initiate, prosecute and escalate the SMO.
Having said that, given NATO clearly forgot, perhaps it’s a bit unfair to expect a poster on MoA to remember!

Posted by: Milites | Oct 19 2024 13:17 utc | 247

@ Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 4:46 utc | 235
Light perusal ? Oh, you missed out on a literal avalanche of derangement by the years long ago periodically obsessed one. Latest visitation, only remnants remain, all open threads, up ’til it recommenced at about: Oct 19 2024 7:37 utc | 237
All the PeterAU1 posts since are by, it. The imposter, name stealer. Oh joy.
@ Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 9:21 utc | 245
The BanderaLands OUN-B nazi’s & supporters consistently refer to Russkies as Orcs, under Sauron ? So, inappropriate for’em to refer to possible NK troops as orcs also. DPRK would be Urukhai ? under Kim Jong-Un, in the role of Saruman, to be narratively consistent. Oh, yeah, yet this is the Ukies, so scrap that …
Cheers
@ YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 12:50 utc | 265
Empire is a rubber band stretched to breaking. Is now apparent China/NK will increasingly do their part to flip McKinder on its head & create their own sustained ‘strategy of tension’ to accelerate/exacerbate all Empires stressors. Empire has zip ability to pivot anywhere, the Yemenis/Ansar Allah alone directly whooped the USN/Royal Navy … expect likely informal/formal trade/traversal blockades on the US & active vassals, up to and including of Japan(NO Peace Treaty) & Taiwan.
Only a few days until BRICS+ in Kazan, hence suspect the myriad absurd new propaganda tropes will continue towards a crescendo, then be sustained at a likely modest level subsequent … Interesting times

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 13:19 utc | 248

@ Milites | Oct 19 2024 13:17 utc | 266
You’re addressing an imposter/name stealer. Be ALert. We need more Lerts. 😉
See: Oct 19 2024 13:19 utc | 267
Cheers & Prost!

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 13:23 utc | 249

Then there’s things like Kursk. The list goes on. But I have to go out shopping, so I’ll leave it there. Makes no difference anyway. No matter what I say Russia remains stuck in a quagmire it cannot extract itself from.
Posted by: Debbie | Oct 18 2024 22:11 utc | 200
It would be a quagmire for Russia if they were just throwing money at swamps and jungles in Vietnam over ideological differences but Russia has gained the seaports and naval bases in Crimea and are in the midst of taking over the most resource rich part of Europe.
Just for a minute consider China’s plan for the BRI and where Donbas coal and steel in combination with Black Sea ports fit into it. The Chinese earn $$$ billions every day in trade surplus. Over the last 30 years they’ve been investing in mines, ore refineries, ports and transportation infrastructure all over the world to the point where they now have a near monopoly on the resources at the base of the supply chain.
When the dust has settled in Ukraine and Russia wins who do you think are going to finance the redevelopment of all those mines and mill Russia’s seizing? This will be a gold mine for both Russia and China if Russia wins.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 19 2024 13:23 utc | 250

@ HB_Norica | Oct 19 2024 13:23 utc | 269
You’re addressing one of the deranged ones now banned socks. Alas, such fun. 🙁
See: Oct 19 2024 13:19 utc | 267 & Oct 19 2024 13:23 utc | 268
Cheers

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 13:30 utc | 251

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 12:50 utc | 265
To be fair, I think the Chinese claim to most of the South China Sea has about as much merit as the US promulgation of the Monroe doctrine, but the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.
I note your comparison of China’s (desired) hegemony over the South China Sea and the Monroe doctrine, but from the PRC perspective it is essential that they prevent any blockade of their maritime trade, or naval freedom of action. A glance of a map of Eastern China will show just how damaging a serious blockade of maritime and air spaces would be to the PRC. They do not have any viable alternatives. Just as the USA would not tolerate European naval powers encroaching om “their patch” via the Monroe doctrine- the PRC is claiming the same rights, but with far more justification IMO.
The Chinese have had a very significant naval presence in the South China Sea -and well beyond- for a very long time, and possibly going back to the Tang dynasty around 2,000 years ago. At various times in Chinese history significant naval battles were a feature of Chinese warfare.
Just for starters, the Chinese Ming general Koxiter (a western name) expelled the Dutch colonists from Fort Zeelandia on Formosa (Taiwan) in the late 17th century. Koxiter fought both land and naval battles to achieve his aim. At that time the Dutch were attempting to control maritime trade between China, Japan and SE Asia generally. Such historical precedents are not lost on the present PRC.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 13:38 utc | 252

It is impossible to reach the Yahya Sinwar thread from here…..an error appears instead…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Oct 19 2024 13:38 utc | 253

It is impossible to reach the Yahya Sinwar thread from here…..an error appears instead…also impossible to comment for me…
I am trying now with my VPN….

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Oct 19 2024 13:38 utc | 254

Note that ‘attack aircraft” and “fighter bombers” are terms that also refer to assault troops, as in this case,
https://t.me/infomil_live/11196

And again Toretsk, and again the “Lavina” battalion of the 132nd Gorlovka brigade, and again the same attack aircraft , and yes, again TM in the window of the building with Ukrainian servicemen.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 19 2024 13:38 utc | 255

It is impossible to reach the Yahya Sinwar thread from here…..an error appears instead…also impossible to comment for me…

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Oct 19 2024 13:38 utc | 256

Note that “attack aircraft” and “fighter bombers” are terms that can also refer to assault troops, as in this case of manually throwing a tank mine (TM) through a window.
https://t.me/infomil_live/11196

And again Toretsk, and again the “Lavina” battalion of the 132nd Gorlovka brigade, and again the same attack aircraft , and yes, again TM in the window of the building with Ukrainian servicemen.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 19 2024 13:42 utc | 257

Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 13:42 utc | 276
There is force in your argument about the South China Sea, but not the sort of force compatible with legal arguments about territorial waters – some of the rocks and waters China are claiming are far closer to the Philippines or Vietnam.
Hence my remarks about the strong and the weak. I could just imagine what the West would say if Russia claimed half the islands in the Gulf of Finland, or the Dardanelles, or the Suwalki Gap, on grounds of national security.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 14:01 utc | 258

@Grrry Bell #76

Did anyone watch the debate between John Helmer and Gilbert Doctorow on You Tube? Here mainly over Putin versus The Russian military (General Staff). The disagreements between Helmer and Doctorow are deep-seated. A lot turned on how they saw the thwarted ‘Istanbul’ Talks in March 2022 and whether Putin was conceding too much.

I also noted at the time that Putin was giving up a lot. And then the accord was rejected. And Zelensky started making irrational requests.
The whole of the SMO operation is a learning pfocess for Putin, Russia and the RoW including the America-leaning fifth-columnists living in those countries. Learning takes time.
I, and I think Putin and anyone who has followed US foreign policy sincd the 70’s, we all believed that neither the US nor Kiev aimed for a peaceful resolution. However, one needs to also convince the partners who are still under the charm of US pop culture that the leaddrs in Washington are really bad, cold, egocentric, idealistic oeople who do not share the dthical values of a majority of ghe world population.
In short Putin knew that the Istambul accords would be rejected by the West and that has become a fact on the ground for all to see. The purpose of the exercise was to convince those who still didn’t see it clearly that the US does not want peace in Ukraine, but is aiming at some other objective.

Posted by: Richard L | Oct 19 2024 14:26 utc | 259

Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 13:42 utc | 276
There is force in your argument about the South China Sea, but not the sort of force compatible with legal arguments about territorial waters – some of the rocks and waters China are claiming are far closer to the Philippines or Vietnam.
Hence my remarks about the strong and the weak. I could just imagine what the West would say if Russia claimed half the islands in the Gulf of Finland, or the Dardanelles, or the Suwalki Gap, on grounds of national security.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 14:01 utc | 278
Have you ever noticed where the british channel islands are? Just
Now going back to topic.
Someone wanted to know how many winter equipments
“According to Der Spiegel, Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov wrote a letter to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg back in late July, calling on the military alliance to provide cold-proof field tents along with clothing for as many as 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers. ”
It only says something about the “cutting edge” who is at the front proper and needs stay in the cold.
Another thing I read, on the ukraine side but still not in RF side, 95+95 prisoner exchange, mostly conscripts from kursk on the RF side, 40% azovs on the AFU side. Any confirmation?

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 19 2024 14:34 utc | 260

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 19 2024 14:34 utc | 280

Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners in the 95-to-95 format
95 Russian servicemen were returned from captivity as part of an exchange with Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry stated.
Now Russian servicemen are on the territory of Belarus, where they are provided with psychological and medical assistance, as well as the opportunity to contact relatives, the department added.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/111025
No breakdown of the 95

Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 15:33 utc | 261

No breakdown of the 95
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2024 15:33 utc | 281

I read earlier today from a Ukrainian source that a large percentage were Azovites (45ish?) from Mariupol.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 19 2024 15:40 utc | 262

Seems we have an entirely new class of NAFO trolls here.
Yes, the desperation is quite obvious now. They can no longer deny they’re losing therefore the immediate objective has switched to (as mentioned above) shaping a new narrative around the imminent collapse.
I’d say that indicates a clear move underway in the Kubler-Ross grief cycle from denial & anger to the bargaining phase. Next up is (severe) depression, ‘cuz acceptance will be extremely hard for NAFOs.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Oct 19 2024 15:45 utc | 263

I could just imagine what the West would say if Russia claimed half the islands in the Gulf of Finland, or the Dardanelles, or the Suwalki Gap, on grounds of national security.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 19 2024 14:01 utc | 278
The South China Sea is a security buffer to keep beligerant navies at arms length but it’s also a major food source. It’s an extremely fertile fishing ground … 12% of the worlds seafood comes from the South China Sea. There aren’t enough soy beans on the planet to replace what the Chinese take from the South China Sea … many would face starvation without it.
The worlds population is growing fast and we still build subdivisions and strip malls on our most productive arable land. The Chinese are aware of this situation and I suspect they’ll consider access to the South China Sea as an existential threat.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 19 2024 15:48 utc | 264

I read earlier today from a Ukrainian source that a large percentage were Azovites (45ish?) from Mariupol.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 19 2024 15:40 utc | 282
Less, but in the 40% range, and yes, on the other side, that’s why I asked for confirmation but if down south says there is still no detail, I’ll wait.
Meanwhile, kursk seems to be loosing depth for the AFU to work normaly, this next text is a good example
MOSCOW, October 19. /TASS/. Russia’s Ka-52M helicopter crews have thwarted the rotation of Ukrainian troops in a border area in the borderline Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
“Ka-52M helicopter crews from a combined arms tactical group thwarted the Ukrainian army’s rotation in a Kursk border area. While performing the combat mission to back ground troops, pilots launched missiles using coordinates provided by a forward air controller, wiping out Ukrainian troops and armored vehicles. After carrying out the attack, the crews performed an anti-missile maneuver at an extremely low altitude and released decoy flares to avoid being hit by enemy missiles. The forward air controller confirmed that the targets had been destroyed,” the statement reads.
The ministry also released footage of the attack.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 19 2024 15:49 utc | 265

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 13:23 utc | 268
We need some form of on-line IFF, or IFT! Thanks for the heads-up, though my post is still relevant, regarding the state of Russian forces, pre-SMO.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 19 2024 15:50 utc | 266

DS, 252:
Translation, they are stuck. Perhaps, probably, not forever. (I do think RFA has initiative.) But the main news of last day in that area was a failed RFA further advance.
To give it credit, the note is more honest than the worst such (the “resisted counterattacks” spin). But it still has a bit of that slant, versus direct reporting. Good detail though.
Maybe, I’m a little hard on it. But I’m just hep to the slant from some of these T channels, that don’t want a single post to break the meta narrative (even if the facts, even occasionally do).

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 19 2024 15:57 utc | 267

HB_Norica,
There’s a strong suspicion of significant petroleum reserves in the disputed area as well.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Oct 19 2024 16:04 utc | 268

@ TJandTheBear | Oct 19 2024 15:45 utc | 283
Ah, no. This specific one has been around for many, many years, singularly deranged, periodically transiently obsessed. AU timezone, likely back again in ~5-6+hrs. 🙁
Serial wearer of socks & a nic/name imposter. Once it starts, unique consistent signature profile. Definitely is Not a fan of b. 😉
Cheers
@ Milites | Oct 19 2024 15:50 utc | 286
Most welcome. That would be a further burden for, recovering, one man band b. b prefers an open forum, with a light, ‘touch’. ‘It’ will pass. Prost!

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 19 2024 16:08 utc | 269

@TJandTheBear 268
Good to meet someone sharing the use of the Kubler-Ross process as referdnce. However, from my time facitating support groups, it’s difficult in practice to get someone to accept treatment as long as someone else provides money, like US/EU currently do in the case of Kiev. Washingto itself is in need of treatment.

Posted by: Richard L | Oct 19 2024 17:43 utc | 270

@YetAnotherAnon | Sat, 19 Oct 2024 14:01:00 GMT | 263

but not the sort of force compatible with legal arguments about territorial waters – some of the rocks and waters China are claiming are far closer to the Philippines or Vietnam.

Kind of like how the Falklands/Malvinas are closer to Argentina than the UK? And yet perfectly legal for the UK to keep those islands.

Posted by: James M. | Oct 19 2024 22:44 utc | 271

@266
“Pray tell, how can RF produce an unconditional surrender against Washington? Lol at you, moron.”
Oh I dont know, I guess they could look at the Vietnam model or the Afghanistan model, or maybe create their own as its been possible before.

Posted by: Yarpos | Oct 20 2024 0:05 utc | 272

See: Jens Skolen | Oct 20 2024 0:55 utc | 278
Imposed Unconditional Surrender, no less.
WWII, 3rd Reich & Imperial Japan ?
Potsdam Declaration July 26, 1945 ?
Victory in Europe Day, Germany’s unconditional surrender on 8/9 May 1945
Victory over Japan Day, Japan’s unconditional surrender. 15 Aug ’45/2 Sep ’45.
Would you like some FreeDumb Fries with that ?

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 20 2024 3:34 utc | 273

@ Jens Skolen | Oct 20 2024 0:55 utc | 278

They were not unconditional surrenders in any way shape or form … They were wilful withdrawals …

+plus meaningless word salad.
Enforced, militarily imposed, panicked collapse, imposing total retreat/withdrawal, both cases sited. Its unconditional surrender, ’cause they were no longer on the field of battle to even attempt to negotiate, diddly squat!
What Bollocks.

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 20 2024 3:43 utc | 274

Slightly off topic. Biden receives Germany’s top award for blowing up Nordstream….
Maximum trolling of the vassal by the USA.
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Oct 20 2024 5:12 utc | 275

History Matters
The recent disagreements between Helmer and Doctorow run deep. Much of it stems from their differing views on the thwarted ‘Istanbul’ talks in March 2022 and whether Putin was conceding too much. How terribly I miss Stephen F. Cohen these days.
In 2021 and 2022, like many others, I didn’t expect Russia to invade Ukraine. I thought it was a mere hand-waving threat in response to Ukraine’s military buildup against the Donbass, which had been escalating all throughout 2021. By December 2021, Putin reached out to Ukraine to de-escalate, and even proposed new security arrangements to NATO. At the time, I found both moves naive and doomed to fail, and they were. That, to me, was the first major strategic mistake.
The invasion itself was the second.
When it happened, I was shocked. What were they thinking? This will not end well for anyone. Ukraine had 110% backing from the U.S., as evidenced by the post-Maidan years of support, rearmament, and military expansion. The invasion seemed irrational and doomed. With hindsight, and with everything we’ve learned since, the picture looks far worse.
Both the 2014/2015 Minsk agreements were strategic mistakes.
Going further back, Russia’s handling of the geopolitical tensions surrounding the 2013/2014 Maidan protests was riddled with strategic errors. Crimea’s reaction was homegrown, not instigated by Putin, and those initial troops without insignia were ex-Ukrainian, not Russian. But Putin’s failure to react to the Odessa Trade Hall massacre was a grave mistake. Not recognizing the Donbass republics in 2014/2015 was another misstep. And not sending in “responsibility to protect” troops to defend the people of Donbass, under the guise of international law, as Russia had done in Georgia earlier, demonstrated weakness and a lack of commitment.
Furthermore, Putin’s failure to impose serious diplomatic, energy, and economic penalties on Ukraine for failing to implement the Minsk II agreement from 2015 onward was a severe and repeated error. He also failed to pressure Germany and France, who had neglected to uphold Minsk II. Russia should have stopped work on Nordstream II, cutting existing energy supplies to Germany, contracts be damned. Building Nordstream II in the first place, despite U.S. opposition, was a costly strategic blunder.
Then came the 2022 invasion. Whatever Putin’s theory of success was, launching an invasion with just 120-150K troops was a severe mistake. There was no clear military objective, nor the necessary force to achieve any political aim. The ill-fated push toward Kiev was a farce, military strategy gone wrong.
The decision to engage in peace talks in Turkey, followed by Russia withdrawing troops from Kiev rather than besieging it, was another blunder. The talks did nothing to achieve the stated objectives of the Special Military Operation (SMO), and any commitments made by Kiev lacked credibility without prior NATO agreements. These negotiations were not just mistakes—they were rash and illogical under the circumstances.
The switch to recognizing the Donbass republics in February 2022 exposed the absurdity of Russia’s previous stance. And the September 2022 referendums, followed by absorbing the four oblasts into Russia, were more of the same: further proof of Russia’s string of flawed decisions.
The first time the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) asked to become part of Russia was in May 2014, following referendums they held in their regions after the annexation of Crimea by Russia. These referendums, which were not recognized internationally, resulted in a majority of voters supporting independence from Ukraine. Shortly after the results were announced, the DPR and LPR made requests to join the Russian Federation.
At that time, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not support their requests to join Russia. Instead, Putin urged dialogue between the separatist regions and the Ukrainian government, promoting negotiations and the Minsk agreements (Minsk I in 2014 and Minsk II in 2015) as a way to resolve the conflict. Putin’s stance was cautious, likely because of the potential international consequences and sanctions that could follow further annexations, as well as the desire to maintain leverage over Ukraine without fully incorporating these regions into Russia.
Russia provided political, military, and economic support to the DPR and LPR but did not move to formally annex them until much later. It wasn’t until February 2022, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that Putin officially recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Even then, it took several months, until September 2022, for Russia to incorporate these regions into the Russian Federation, after holding referendums in four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia), which were widely condemned in the United Nations as illegitimate.
There are plenty more strategic missteps—just look at Kursk. Regardless of what I or anyone says, Russia remains stuck in a quagmire it cannot easily escape from.
May 2010 – Stephen Cohen examines the history between NATO and Russia, detailing how NATO has consistently broken their word and expanded further closer to Russia. Cohen’s analysis is especially topical following the war in Ukraine and the unfolding current state of foreign affairs involving NATO, Russia and the rest of the world.
https://scheerpost.com/2022/10/05/video-stephen-f-cohen-provides-clarity-on-nato-expansion-and-russia-more-than-10-years-ago/
May 2014 “We Are Not Beginning a New Cold War, We Are Well Into It”: Stephen Cohen on Russia-Ukraine Crisis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad5Fy3RNkY0

Posted by: William Manchester | Oct 20 2024 6:22 utc | 276

@ William Manchester | Oct 20 2024 6:22 utc | 282
My Dear, dearest Willie, first(?) time poster ? Welcome to the Bar!
So, in summation, your premise is Empire/NATO/EU/Ukraine will win/have won, re the proxy war in Ukraine, and the wider conflict of which Ukraine is a useful entirely expendable sub-component, which you fail to even refer in context ?
My lying eyes must be deceiving me, as per your written words, ’cause that is not what every relevant consequential data point shows, nor the indisputable situ on the battlefield, nor the inevitable outcome re the War since early ’23.
A balanced, objective, non-partisan, rational analyses, NOT! Yawn. Flawed Intro, vacuous body, unsupported conclusions.
Just for the lol’s one tabulates: 10 Putins (along with ‘urged, officially, ‘s stance, did not, ‘s theory, ‘s failure (x2), reached out, then 23 mentions of ‘Russia’, 9 mentions of Ukraine, 5 mentions of NATO, 2 mentions of U.S., 0 Zelensky, 0 Empire/NATO leaders, excluding 2 refs from 2010 & 2014 ?!
Appearance of deliberately partisan, unobjective, biased, exclusionary, omission filled, slanted/incomplete context & key events, zero acknowledgement re Strategic situ, players, perceived objective outcomes, etc.
Omission of critical key events re 2004 & 2008. Also OUN-B, Neo & actual Nazi’s going back to at least WWII in The BanderaLands …
Now do the apposite Ukie/Empire failures/flaws Strategic failures, downwards that have led them to defeat, please ? Names, appointments, nations, leaders, dates/places/statements/policy declarations/aims & objectives, etc.
Mark: D-. No, an F. No a 404. ‘Cause it’s vacuous childish drivel. Incompetent infantile biased wholly unbalanced propaganda. Refs of minuscule relevance & inadequate to support argument/flawed conclusions nor referenced in the text in support(& no HTML tags/formatting). Must do much better … however unlikely.
History does indeed Matter, yet slanted/biased/BS contributes nothing.
Shadowbanned’s half/younger/older-brother ?
‘Cause you certainly write with his voice … in restraints.

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 20 2024 7:33 utc | 277

Outraged assumes and concludes incorrectly: “My Dear, dearest Willie, first(?) time poster ? Welcome to the Bar! So, in summation, your premise is Empire/NATO/EU/Ukraine will win/have won ”
This seems to be the best place to end any potential discussion or answering of legitimate respectful queries from Mr/Mrs/Ms/Miss Outraged. I am pleased to get that out the way so quickly. Give a man enough chances and they will hang themselves by their own tongue. That was a quick death! Govinda Singh I think it was who said that or something similar.

Posted by: William Manchester | Oct 20 2024 9:40 utc | 278

@ Dear Willlie
Now do the apposite Ukie/Empire failures/flaws Strategic failures, downwards that have led them to defeat, please ? No ?

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 20 2024 13:32 utc | 279

“I admit to speculation here, but the western rhetoric against the PRC and NK has definitely increased lately, and some political/strategic considerations must be driving this.”
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 19 2024 12:33 utc | 250
You are correct that the ‘western rhetoric against the PRC and NK has increased lately’; but I believe it is a ruse.
The Empire needs to make it seem that they are withdrawing from the Ukraine SMO because there is a much direr enemy, China/NK, that takes military priority: ergo they are not taking a defeat in Ukraine.
Where the Empire will attempt to intimidate China/NK with economic and military threats to make the Sovereigns bend to their will. However, even the Empire knows it can’t win a war in East Asia.
Further, the insanity of threatening China actually increases China’s support for Russia; if the Empire looked kindly at China it may have backed off it Russian support but woith threats the Empire strengthens the Russia/China alliance-incredible stupidity on the Empire’s part.
Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad-“Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat… ”

Posted by: canuck | Oct 20 2024 14:06 utc | 280

@William Manchester | Oct 20 2024 6:22 utc | 282
So many mistakes … from just one side. They are doomed for sure ); .

Posted by: Richard L | Oct 20 2024 16:17 utc | 281

@ Richard L | Oct 20 2024 16:17 utc | 287
Oh, yes indeed, most certainly, The BanderaLands/US/NATO/EU are indefatigably, doomed fur sure! 🙂

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 20 2024 18:50 utc | 282

@William Manchester | Oct 20 2024 6:22 utc | 282
So many mistakes … from just one side. They are doomed for sure ); .
Posted by: Richard L | Oct 20 2024 16:17 utc | 287

Looks like the usual light weight trolling. It’s easy being a cheerleader for a sports team or your favorite country because it does not take any thinking or knowledge.
Russia nor Putin are “doomed”. Far from it.
But the actual History still Matters!
A strategic mistake is what it is and they all have an impact, in both the short and long term. Failing to objectively recognize these historical facts is nothing to be proud of. Ukraine and the US and Nato too have made strategic mistakes. But that was not the topic of my comment in responding to what others were saying here.
A decade ago now the two Donbass republics were begging Putin to bring them formally into Russia. That denial affected everything since and has cost lives. Putin accepting the lies of Holland Merkel and Ukraine with the Minsk accords mattered and has cost lives – both Russian and Ukrainian lives – civilians included.
Putin dithering with the US and NATO over security concerns from 2007 in particular onward has not strengthened Russia’s position, nor Putin’s. Putin referring to liars and cheats as “our partners” for decades matters.
Of course none of this matters to a shallow cheer-leading troll who can’t see this is not surprising. These kinds of frivolous inane comments are standard fare in this kind of environment.
But there are few quite intelligent objective people here who actually are interested in the history and know all the historical details matter – and they add up in ways unforeseen when ignored.

Posted by: William Manchester | Oct 21 2024 1:02 utc | 283

Re William Manchester | All
Dearest Willie …
See: Here.
October 18, 2024, Warrior With A Just Cause Dies As Such.
Oct 21 2024 14:49 utc | 531

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 22 2024 4:11 utc | 284