I can say the 90-mnutes spent watching/listening to Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff was time well spent, even though I knew ahead what was generally going to be said. Again, “Richard D. Wolff & Michael Hudson: How the U.S. Took Over the World: The End of International Law, is where you can further your education and get information to hone your point-of-view.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 17 2024 23:59 utc | 103

Every peace offer by Putin to the Nazi’s in Ukraine has been that of a pragmatist. Some would say what he offered Ukraine 3 times already was not nearly punishment enough. For what has happened over the last several years.
Why would the final deal be any different, apart from pragmatic ?
I think Doctorow is making some very valid points and talking a lot of sense with the Judge today. Big picture, long view thinking.
My own view, is that it will be a very risky strategy by Putin as many want justice served. However, If anybody can pull it off then it is Putin. Whatever the final deal looks like, I’m quite convinced it is going to piss a lot of people off. Won’t go as far as many people think it will.
A lot of talk about Blackrock, but he might not even go as far as the Dnieper river. Nobody can say for certain at this stage if he will.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 18 2024 0:24 utc | 105

The only people I can listen to now are Baud, Doctorow, and Escobar.
I could never stand McGovern, and now I can’t stand Johnson.
Ritter is ok if he is talking about Russia where he has expertise.
All of the Yanks (Judge included) struggle with American complicity in genocide. They can mention it, but they are captured by the fact the American, “Shining City on the Hill”, only produces evil and misery to the woe of mankind.
It’s like finding out that your favorite son is a rapist cannibal, but when you think of him, all you can picture in your mind is a cute kid playing in the backyard with his puppy.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 18 2024 0:55 utc | 107

Is it me or is RF going into lower gear?
Feature or bug?

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 18 2024 1:07 utc | 109

109, Newb:
Within the Ukraine (i.e. excepting Russian territory), they are doing about half the speed this month as SEP. They are slower than AUG or JUL also, although faster than JUN. [Don’t have the exact numbers, that’s an estimate, but a fair one.]

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 1:17 utc | 111

This is an interesting spin , the empire is prepared to say its impotent rather than it actually lost.
The US Department of Defense has acknowledged the impossibility of large-scale deliveries of certain weapons to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, due to the declining defense capability of the United States itself, the New York Times reported, citing representatives of the country’s defense department.
“Pentagon officials say they simply cannot supply more of them (ATACMS missiles) to Ukraine without dipping into the reserves of American military warehouses intended for possible conflicts in the Middle East and Asia,”

Posted by: Hankster | Oct 18 2024 1:25 utc | 113

Today’s debate between John Helmer and Gilbert Doctorow
For the bar, follows is the review I wrote about that very interesting, entertaining debate. It’s an hour very well-spent.
==========
My reaction to the discussion has three sections: 1) how the debate was framed and moderated, 2) how the vast potential benefit of this discussion went unrealized, and 3) the main points of take-away that made listening to the debate so very worthwhile.
Framing and Moderation. The moderator – Mr. Mercouris – did not do the debate any service. He’s a smart man, but spent too much time listening to himself talk. He did not frame the debate well – e.g. identify key things to cover, and insure that the presenters covered those points.
In the intro, he spent a lot of time explaining how the Russian Military General Staff has no modern counterpart, and how much impact it has on Russian military and foreign policy decisions … and that was the last we heard of the subject.
If it’s so important, why so, and what impact did/does/will it have? Helmer touched on this briefly, tangentially, and I’ll point that out later in the take-aways. I think Mr. Mercouris missed a major opportunity to educate.
Unrealized Potential. Next, the presenters spent far too much time on details and on questioning the basis for the other presenter’s perspectives (this is Helmer, mainly).
These are two very seasoned, highly educated people, and there should have been _no time spent_ on one-upsmanship. Instead, the discussion should have centered on “what are the forces, how are decisions made, who are the key players, what is the past, current, and prospective situation (e.g. trajectory, and past events that cast a shadow on today’s situation), and what are the key options/paths going forward”.
Only some of that got done.
Take-Aways. Now let’s talk about the take-aways.
Helmer made the point – and made it well – that Russia’s mistake in the past was to make agreements (for ex: no NATO move into former Soviet satellites) without having soldiers on the ground to _enforce_ those agreements.
Helmer says “the West has secret agreements with its “allies” – (Helmer calls them “secret annexes”) – that serve to install military threats of one form or another into the nations abutting Russia that the U.S. somehow has influence over. They’re secret, they’re dangerous, they need to be prevented. Essentially, Helmer’s stating that Russia has to keep the thumb on all the countries that surround it. More Cold War.
Helmer also made it crystal clear that the West cannot, will not tolerate a Germany-Russia alliance, because that means the end of U.S. control over Europe. Plain and simple. Hence NordStream, et. al.
Helmer also pointed out that there’s “no guarantor of peace”. No matter what peace agreement is reached, who says it’ll be enforced? Who could Russia trust, beside itself with its military, to enforce _any_ peace agreement reached with the West?
Helmer also stated that one key demand, commitment, closely-held perspective of the Russian Military Staff is that any “end” to the current Ukraine war _not_ create conditions that lead … directly to the next one.
Now let me offer a selection of my favorite points made by Dr. Doctorow:
Putin is the consummate politician. He is able to conceive, order, plan, execute, manipulate and otherwise cause to act … players at all levels – global, regional, national, local – military, industrial, social … to the systematic advantage of Russia.
He’s the ultimate HR (human resources) manager. He tolerates malignants (e.g. oligarchs, corrupt military leaders) so long as they do more good than harm. Then he gets rid of them, and puts in someone better, as conditions permit. This is Putin’s signature genius.
Putin understands timing. There was a time when Russia wasn’t ready for war, so war was avoided (at great cost). Now it’s ready, and so it’s conducting war, and its winning. There was political, economic, military and industrial prep-work to be done, and it got done. And then there was war.
Russia is a different country today than it was in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The Russia of today is exceptionally well-positioned for the future. Not only militarily and industrially and economically, but global-politically. Russia is one of two leads on the BRICS project, which offers the promise of a vastly different world than the one crafted by the West. This confers enormous promise and access and status for Russia.
While Helmer states absolutes about what Russia’s end-game might be, Doctorow introduces shades of gray in the form of political and military realities that modulate what Russia can reasonably get without resorting, for example, to nuclear war.
Doctorow’s mental model of the situation emphasizes continued maneuver – politics, management over immediate absolutes (unconditional surrender in Ukraine / West vacates the former satellites, for ex.). This “maneuver” at the national level is, of course, Russia’s strong suit; not just with Putin, but increasingly the entire government management team. There are remaining trouble spots (Nabulina’s name came up a time or two). It’s not all roses. But Russia has astonished the world with its ability to adapt, to manage, to execute its vision.
More To Come?
Of course I’m leaving out a great deal of really excellent material; awkwardness and occasional mis-direction aside, that’s the best hour I’ve spent on geopolitics in a very, very long time. I would not have missed that discussion.
Could it have been better? Yes, and I think all the players involved would acknowledge that.
For Mr. Mercouris – the moderator – I ask: “what indeed _is_ the role and significance of the Russian Military General Staff? What impact _will_ they have on the course of events?”
Well, we didn’t find that out.
I confess that I empathize with Mr. Mercouris, in that it must be daunting to try to direct the flow of conversation between two such powerful stallions. Yes.
But Mercouris did himself no favors in his discussion setup, and didn’t steer the conversation with appropriate, penetrating questions, and he let the presenters – mainly Helmer – take the conversation into unprofitable territory.
But the good news is … there might be a redux. I really look forward to that, should it happen.
=== Lastly: Mr. Mercouris did, as moderator, a much better job than I ever could have. Hopefully, he’ll use this feedback in the spirit it’s intended: “we’re all in this together. We need to help one another improve”.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Oct 18 2024 2:24 utc | 115

“The significance of showing Yahya al-Sinwar killed in a house, rather than hiding in a tunnel, while wearing his military fatigues and apparently engaged in the fight, cannot be overstated….”
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1846956616333381951
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 @ejmalrai
The significance of showing Yahya al-Sinwar killed in a house, rather than hiding in a tunnel, while wearing his military fatigues and apparently engaged in the fight, cannot be overstated. Such an image portrays al-Sinwar as a leader who remained on the battlefield until the end, not as someone who was merely hiding underground, as many would expect. It strengthens the narrative that he was committed to resisting Israeli occupation forces up close, reinforcing his status as a dedicated leader among his people.
For Israel, and particularly for Netanyahu, the leak of such an image by the military (angry with Netanyahu), especially when it bypassed the official chain of command, undermines any potential political or symbolic victory that his death might have brought. Instead of being portrayed as a fugitive hiding in fear, al-Sinwar’s image as a fighter in military attire could rally Hamas supporters and boost the morale of the resistance, complicating Israel’s narrative of victory.
Moreover, the unofficial leak by soldiers reveals cracks in the discipline and information control within the Israeli military, potentially embarrassing the Israeli political leadership by spoiling the intended messaging.
The perception of al-Sinwar as a martyr fighting to the last moment destroys the psychological impact Israel political leadership may have hoped to achieve through his elimination.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 18 2024 2:40 utc | 117

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Oct 17 2024 18:53 utc | 70
And a thank you right back your way for the compliment.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 18 2024 2:48 utc | 119

@110

Ukraine’s president accused North Korea on Thursday of deploying officers alongside Russia and preparing to send thousands of troops to help Moscow’s war effort, although NATO’s chief said there was no evidence of Pyongyang’s presence at this stage.
At least at the end they admit it is a lie

Even if it were true, so what? Far be it from the Russians to turn down volunteers from the notoriously over-enthusiastic North Koreans. Probably just racist scaremongering on the part of NATO.

Posted by: Johnny Boy | Oct 18 2024 3:23 utc | 121

What is the probability that we, here at the Whiskey Bar, have a better shot at answering these questions than the Pentagram:

Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
Given the lack of transparency the AFU habitually shows and the apparent lack of a firewall between Ukraine’s propaganda and its military reporting, the US mil/NATO should be aggressively collecting on the AFU.
Let’s work up some Friendly Force Information Requirements:
FFIR 1.1: What is the AFU’s current personnel strength?
FFIR 1.2: How has it changed in the last month?
FFIR 1.3: How long can this be sustained?
FFIR 2.1: What is the AFU’s true order of battle?
FFIR 2.2: What are the strengths of those units?
FFIR 3.1: What is the AFU’s current disposition at the battalion level?
FFIR 3.2: What are the AFU’s plans in the next three months?
FFIR 4.1: What is the AFU’s current equipment set?
FFIR 4.2: How much of that set is functional?
FFIR 4.3: How has this changed in the last month?
FFIR 5.1: What is the AFU’s ammunition on hand?
FFIR 5.2: How has it changed in the last month?
FFIR 5.3: What weapon systems are “extinct” for lack of ammunition?
FFIR 6: What is the status of Ukraine’s WMD program?
FFIR 7.1: What is the status, disposition, and intentions of the GUR’s attack network in interior Russia?
FFIR 7.2: What is the status, disposition, and intentions of the GUR Black Sea Attack Network?
FFIR 7.3: Does a NATO-facing GUR attack network exist? Is it dormant or active? Objectives and plans?
FFIR 8.1: AFU attacks on Russia from third countries.
FFIR 8.2: NATO-ally attacks on Russia claimed as AFU.
FFIR 9.1: AFU violations of the Law of War.
FFIR 9.2: AFU use of US materiel to commit the above.
FFIR 9.3: Blacklist of dirty AFU units and personnel.
FFIR 10: Are key Ukrainian leaders abusing drugs, and if so, with what effects on their judgment?
These are all very basic questions that EUCOM should be able to immediately and accurately answer regarding the Ukrainian military and government, and which the Ukrainians can be expected to lie about if asked. Ergo, collection is needed. Most of these requirements should be briefed and updated on a regular basis.
However, as near as I can tell, EUCOM and their bosses at the Pentagon seem to actually have answers on none of them. Perhaps this is because they know those answers are going to be extremely ugly, and the groupthink vortex is now so strong that nobody in those organizations is willing to risk their careers by confronting the issue.

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1847107083138662875

Posted by: Aristonicus | Oct 18 2024 4:02 utc | 123

https://nypost.com/2024/10/17/us-news/2024-presidential-election-live-updates-10-17-24/
https://youtu.be/4D5M7CKVMf0?t=3330
President Trump decried the senseless loss of life, and destruction of beautiful cities, in Ukraine and said he will get it settled before he even takes office if he wins the election.
That YouTube link should take you to the 55:30 mark where his brief comment begins. He also mentions the Middle East. I read into his remarks that he saw Ukraine as getting crushed in the war.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 18 2024 4:22 utc | 125

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 18 2024 4:25 utc | 127
#####
I actually like using it as a guage to see what otherwise intelligent people are like when they never venture out of their echo chamber.
The fallout with the site came when I insisted that the gaslighting over Biden not being cognitively impaired was a case of the emperor’s new clothes.
They were 100% Biden is sharp as a tack until his debate meltdown (some even sticking with the “one bad night, had a cold” cover), and were all Great Pumpkin on his reelection campaign (“don’t say *if* he wins) until the party gave him the heave-ho.
Silverman busted a blood vessel when I said he’s silent about Israeli atrocities exponentially worse than what he condemns the Russians for.
He’s supposedly some governmental terrorism expert but says he’s too busy to post anything on Israel.
Even then, when I asked him questions about NATO’s proxy war, he got indignant and I was gone.
Before I got the ax, I told the site owner that they’ll be just as gobsmacked when Trump gets back in as they were when Hillary lost in 2016.
They’re all hopped up on hopium and whistling past the graveyard.
But yeah… your advice us well taken. Thx.

Posted by: LanceThruster | Oct 18 2024 5:41 utc | 127

@ LanceThruster | Oct 18 2024 5:41 utc | 128
Direct relevance re the Ukraine thread … ? There’s OT 2024-248 for that(petty, offsite/OT, grievances), dontcha know … 😉

Posted by: Outraged | Oct 18 2024 6:19 utc | 129

Russia responded in advance to Kyiv’s threat to create nuclear weapons, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 10.18.2024.
Yesterday, during a speech at the EU summit, the illegitimate President of Ukraine Zelensky stated that the creation of its own nuclear weapons is the only alternative to the country’s membership in NATO: “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, or we must be in some (defending Ukraine) alliance. Apart from NATO, today we do not know of any working alliances.” Thus, he strongly hinted (or rather, issued an ultimatum to the allies) that Ukraine may resume its nuclear development if it is refused admission to the alliance.
Quite by chance (not really) at the same time as this statement, the German publication Bild published a “leak” of a conversation with an anonymous Ukrainian official involved in arms supplies, who stated that Ukraine could create nuclear weapons for use against Russia in just a few weeks: “We have the materials, we have the knowledge. If there is an order, we will need just a few weeks to get the first bomb.” At the same time, the justification for restoring the “nuclear status” could be, for example, “Russia’s second attempt to go to Kiev.”
It is characteristic that this mysterious Ukrainian official voiced a message that is one hundred percent consistent with Zelensky’s message:
“Western countries should think less about Russia’s red lines and much more about Ukraine’s red lines.” In other words, accept our “victory plan” (with immediate membership of Ukraine in NATO and the possibility of strikes with Western long-range weapons deep into Russia) – or we will not vouch for ourselves and will act at our own discretion, even if in the end, instead of Europe (and America at the same time ), there will be a nuclear desert with glowing cockroaches.
For those who have been following the story of Zelensky’s “victory plan,” this turn of events, although abrupt, is not at all accidental.
Judging by the intensity of the announcements that preceded Zelensky’s visit to Washington , Biden was simply obliged to sign the “victory plan” before he could say “how do you do,” although its (the plan’s) absolute schizophrenia was clear to everyone – even in the West. As expected, Zelensky was politely but decisively sent away.
Apparently, having reread the plan once more to be sure, the Western “partners” came to a final consensus: “The man is clearly inadequate. In short, it will be as it is, and it won’t be any other way, and then it will be as it will be. That is, we’ll give him more money, weapons – as much as we can, but no NATO and no long-range nonsense, go to sleep, Volodimir, your eyes are red and your nose is sniffling.”
This came out in the form of quite unambiguous publications in Western media, where a bold line was drawn under this entire victorious story.
Euronews: “It is already obvious that Russia cannot be brought to its knees, and its troops will not go anywhere. The euphoria must go, the time for compromise has come. Ukraine must accept the fact that it will not be able to take back the land by force.”
Financial Times: “Territorial surrender and security guarantees will be the basis of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.”
However, Zelensky decided to play the big boys’ game, not knowing that in such companies there are clear unwritten rules, for breaking which even your current friends can give the order to “cleaners”. Rumours about the West replacing the crazy Zelensky have been circulating for a long time, but the current psychological attack may well be the last straw from the banknote on the camel’s back.
As for the realism of Kyiv’s nuclear threats, the opinion of at least the domestic expert community is unambiguous: “The dog barks, the wind carries it.”
According to the head of the State Duma Defence Committee, Andrey Kartapolov, “the creation of (its own) nuclear weapons by Ukraine is absolutely out of the question; Kiev does not have the expertise, materials or equipment.” Ukraine does not have and never has had its own program for creating nuclear weapons, and in order to make a nuclear bomb, it is necessary to create from scratch a complex technological cycle that even much more economically developed countries, which have also long dreamed of obtaining a “decisive argument,” do not possess.
Yes, in the remaining territory of Ukraine there are still a number of enterprises and organizations that at one time participated in the Soviet nuclear program. For example, the Kharkov Physics and Technology Institute, the Institute of Nuclear Research, the Institute of Organic Chemistry, the Institute of Safety Problems of the Nuclear Power Plant in Chernobyl , the State Scientific and Technical Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety in Kiev and the Institute of Condensed Matter Physics in Lvov . However, at the moment their personnel and technological potential is approaching zero and, in addition, any of their movements in the direction of the “combat atom” would immediately become known to our intelligence (there are still enough of ours and simply adequate people in the scientific community of Ukraine).
But even if there were the right people, Ukraine does not have the necessary capacities and technologies. The filling for an atomic bomb can be made in three ways: based on uranium (diffusion and gas centrifuge technologies) and plutonium (using special nuclear reactors).
The diffusion technology that the Americans initially tried to use to create weapons-grade uranium is extremely expensive and energy-intensive. The power of three (!) nuclear reactors is required to operate one diffusion plant. Considering that there are only four nuclear power plants left in Ukraine, and the Russian army is shutting down its energy generation every day, this option is out of the question.
The production of weapons-grade uranium using gas centrifuges requires the highest level of technological development. For example, the world’s most powerful economy with the highest iPhone capitalization has only just reached it: on April 19 of this year, Biden announced that for the first time in history, the United States itself had produced 90 kilograms of enriched uranium. Iran has been producing uranium centrifuges for decades, but talk of a real possibility of producing nuclear weapons has only just begun. Whether Ukraine will be able to magically jump over such a technological barrier in “a few weeks” is a rhetorical question.
To produce weapons-grade plutonium from uranium, special reactors are needed, which Ukraine does not have. All 15 operating reactors are Soviet-made, and it is impossible to use them for this purpose.
All the talk about the possibility of producing nuclear weapons from spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is also in favor of armchair experts.
In its “unexpected leak,” the Bild publication stipulated that the “nuclear” Ukrainian scenario is calculated for the period after the settlement of the current conflict and taking into account that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO.
But there is a feeling that after the insane nuclear blackmail of its partners, Ukraine not only did not increase its chances, but simply turned them into dust. And if Zelensky tries to do something in this direction, Russia will not even need to do anything: his own will quickly deal with him.
A war with Russia to the last Ukrainian is okay, it’s not a pity, and even that’s already boring, but an uncontrollable nuclear powder keg on the doorstep of Europe is definitely not needed by anyone.

Posted by: guest | Oct 18 2024 6:24 utc | 131

Helmer, on the other hand, is dangerous, he’s one of those lousy Saul-to-Paul type of guys who are now sprouting like mushrooms… He was a hardcore neoliberal in the 90’s. Just read the articles he wrote during the collapse in 1998…
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 18 2024 2:37 utc | 117
That’s very interesting Larsbo. I’ve been thinking about this when I watch the Chicago School guys on different channels who now seem to be On Russia’s side. Other people like Sachs and the role he played back then.
When you see them all together with the Rogoff gang at the Russian economic forums, I’m thinking wtf, some of these guys should be locked up for crimes against Russia. They were trying to carve Russia up and asset strip it during that time.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 18 2024 6:56 utc | 133

💰💰 Kurdinization of Ukraine
Ze’s victory plan, if adopted, will turn Ukrainians into Kurds, who do not have:
✅ their own mineral wealth – their mineral wealth is being pumped out by the Americans,
✅ a normal country – a militarized territory dependent on the US Army,
✅ peace – they are used as PMCs in the interests of American corporations.
This is what it means in the end – joint use of mineral wealth + being a frontier against the enemies of the US.
The Ukrainians will become tenants on foreign soil, will lose their economic basis for development, and the most successful careers will be achieved in the security forces.
At the same time, it is not profitable for the Americans to replace the idly hanging out US troops in Europe with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Either fight and die, or we ourselves will stand here under the NATO umbrella.
Ze’s plan is a gift to Putin, because emotions will subside, and the essence of the proposal, described above, will remain in the minds. As a result, any proposed form, in which the people living on this land manage these resources themselves and do not fight with anyone, is much more attractive than Kurdistan.
But no, it is not the Kurds, the Kurds were left with their faith🧩

https://t.me/ZeRada1/21954

Posted by: Down South | Oct 18 2024 7:01 utc | 135

Kursk direction on the morning of 18.10.24: the weather is improving…
The last week for both warring armies in the Kursk direction has been a big test. Constant rains have complicated the logistics of the units and hindered the attack. But since yesterday the weather has started to improve and the forecast for the next ten days in this regard is quite favorable for the intensification of military operations.
And therefore, the temporary relative calm (which has been observed here for the last few days) will probably end very soon. And our units will try to build on their initial success.
I am sure that this very calm was used to regroup forces, and this week we will see an intensification of military operations.
The main battle area will remain the Lyubimovka-Leonidovo-Sverdlikovo-Daryino square. We must deprive the enemy of logistics north of Sudzha at any cost. Ideally, take the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the Sumy region under tighter fire (drone) control.
For this, we need to reach the Sverdlikovo-Lebedivka line.
The area south and east of Sudzha, as well as Malaya Loknya, will remain auxiliary, as before.
In the meantime, the enemy, who is still sitting in the Tolstoy Lug area, realizing that the unblocking attack, which they were counting on, failed, began, under cover of the weather, to try to reach their own in groups through the landings. Not everyone succeeds.
Keep your fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18611

Posted by: Down South | Oct 18 2024 7:05 utc | 137

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Fighting near Lyubimovka
Situation as of the end of October 17, 2024
Russian army units continue to liberate the territory of Kursk Region, destroying the enemy’s manpower.
▪️In Glushkovo District, there are clashes near the captured enemy village of Novy Put, and to the south, Ukrainian formations are preparing the next line of defense along the railway. At the same time, the territory of the district is almost completely liberated.
▪️In Korenevo District, Ukrainian formations tried to attack in Zeleny Shlyakh and the villages to the south, but withdrew with losses. Against the background of reports of the alleged capture of a huge amount of enemy manpower in the area of Lyubimovka, footage of retreating AFU members has spread on the Internet: apparently, they were shot near Tolstoy Lug, where a “semi-cauldron” with a narrow “neck” formed.
Approximately in this area, there was an episode of an unsuccessful attack by the Russian Armed Forces and the loss of several units of tracked and wheeled armored vehicles. According to preliminary data, the reason was a topographic error of the advancing forces.
▪️In Sudzha District, another unsuccessful attack by the AFU was recorded in the vicinity of Russkaya Konopelka. Judging by the latest footage of objective control, the Ukrainian formations in Plekhovo are also under the threat of encirclement, and the village may be liberated in the near future.

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18561

Posted by: Down South | Oct 18 2024 7:07 utc | 139

If Zelrbsky is twlking about n weapons that means Ukraine already has the bomb. US can give them the bomb abd deny it later.

Posted by: vargas | Oct 18 2024 7:55 utc | 141

Posted by: Naive | Oct 17 2024 18:17 utc | 63

by Anti-Spiegel
Posted by: ossi | Oct 17 2024 17:25 utc | 55
To read western literature is bad of one’s mental health. Even when it is anti-Spiegel. More so when it is about blackmail.

although ossi is not so good with sources ;how can you equate anti-spiegel with msm ???
perhaps you could try the ‘About us’ page of Anti-spiegel
( ossis “Quote” is from BILD )

Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 18 2024 9:00 utc | 143

Andrew Sarchus | Oct 18 2024 7:56 utc | 143
“Operation Unthinkable is all that NATO have been thinking about for 79 years.”
Not really. Churchill – who was almost* ALWAYS aggressive in his policy proposals, put an attack on Russia to his 1945 military, and they turned it down pretty massively, pointing out it would mean total mobilisation in both the US and Europe. After all, the UK had ostensibly joined WW2 to save Poland from Nazi domination, and now it was wholly occupied by the Soviets.
* maybe not on the Afghan borders in Victorian times
“Sir Bindon sent orders that we were to stay in the Mamund valley and lay it waste with fire and sword in vengeance. This accordingly we did, but with great precautions… When however we had to attack the villages on the sides of the mountains they resisted fiercely, and we lost for every village two or three British officers and fifteen or twenty native soldiers. Whether it was worth it, I cannot tell. At any rate, at the end of a fortnight the valley was a desert, and honour was satisfied.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 18 2024 9:34 utc | 145

*Saying, not Saing

Posted by: jure | Oct 18 2024 10:23 utc | 147

Ukraine had several capable scientists at the UIPhT in Kharkov, but it never became a major research centre in the Soviet Union. How many nukes were developed in Ukraine is not known, as those archives are unavailable. Many Ukrainian scientists were killed in the war, and after the German occupation, most, if not all, research for the military use of nukes was developed in Russia. After the war, the activities at UIPhT focused on the research for the peaceful use of thermonuclear fusion. However, Ukrainian scientists definitely had the knowledge on how to create the bomb, and that knowledge could very well still exist there.

Posted by: jure | Oct 18 2024 10:51 utc | 149

No, Germany is not at war against Russia. Those thousands of drones are for drone swarm display to entertain the Ukie soldiers.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20241018/germany-preparing-aid-package-for-ukraine-including-missiles-thousands-of-attack-drones-1120588385.html

Posted by: Surferket | Oct 18 2024 11:00 utc | 151

Putin is petrified.!
Australia! Is sending 49! M1A1! Abrams! to Ukraine, and this will, Sky News Australia breathlessly reports, will surely ensure an Ukrainian victory over Russia. This time for sure.
Russia is using 50 year old Soviet scrap metal tanks, and Australia’s as god as new Abrams are likely “game changing”. Says Sky News.
>… Many Australians will be surprised to be reminded the Ukraine war is still going…. So little has been reported in recent months.
It’s been long enough to have forgotten we’ve been depleted of all our stupendous kyphosis Bushmasters. No one will think to question why Ukraine needs “our” Abrams ……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYW0m-Yz6QA

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 18 2024 11:14 utc | 153

DS, 135,
“near #Lyubimovka, the enemy militants are trying to get out of the operational encirclement under fire from our artillery and drone strikes.”
Translation: RFA still has not driven UFA out of Lyubimovka.
In contrast, your 138 source is more straightforward and discusses the situation as such.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 11:31 utc | 155

In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian army advanced south of Chasy Yar, encircling the city from the south.
Russian units have deeply penetrated the defense of Ukrainian troops along the Bakhmut-Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk highway towards the settlement of Stupochki, having overcome the line of the main watershed ridge, the Russian Armed Forces are breaking through to the descent to Konstantinovka.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21253

In the Kursk direction, the main combat operations are still concentrated around the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in the Lyubimovka-Tolstoy Lug area.
Ukrainian units that are in operational encirclement have begun to move more actively towards a breakthrough from the semi-cauldron. At the same time, the retreat is taking place in small groups through a narrow “neck” south of Zeleny Shlyakh. Rainy weather facilitates these maneuvers. Although for logistics as a whole, on both sides, this is a real test, since active operations in such weather using equipment are very problematic (especially wheeled).

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21255

In the Kurakhovsk-Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced west of Tsukurino.
Further south, fighting continues on the Novoselidovka-Izmailovka line, with the Ukrainian garrison holding its positions there. The advance of Russian units towards Novodmitrovka is likely intended to encircle Novoselidovka from the west. It is likely that the Russian Armed Forces’ plan is to enter Kremennaya Balka and Voznesenka (south of Tsukurino) from the north, with subsequent capture. And then move south to push through Novoselidovka’s defenses (by encircling them from three sides) and break through to the strategic road from Ilyinka.
If this happens, the cities of Gornyak and Kurakhovka will be encircled, and the situation there could turn into a “cauldron” for the Ukrainian group.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21256

Posted by: Down South | Oct 18 2024 11:59 utc | 157

@156,
How did you translate ‘near Lyubimovka’ as Lyubimovka itself? Has it occurred to you that maybe the actual fighting is in the vicinity of the village and not the village itself? Also, even if the village has not been taken, don’t you agree that being encircled and destroyed by drones and artillery is worse than retreating?
Anyway, we are ~ 2 months into this Kursk operation and we can both agree that it was a failure. It did not achieve anything that would have tipped the scale in UKR favor. Will see next year if they try again in Kursk or back to Zaporozhe front.

Posted by: JamesBond | Oct 18 2024 12:03 utc | 159

DS, 158, second source:
I mean, sure, maybe that could be the plan. But it will take a lot of space on the map to move that far west before turning south. And seems to imply that RFA can’t just go after Novoselyidivka/Izmailivka directly (despite having a salient at their crossroards).
So in terms of cutting off Hirnyk, it’s a very elaborate/long plan. I sort of think they can do better than that.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 12:08 utc | 161

( ossis “Quote” is from BILD )
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 18 2024 9:00 utc | 144
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Wrong
My quote is NOT from Bild, but a quote from Anti-Spiegel about the text from Bild!
And calling Anti Spiegel an MSN indicates that the creator of it is “naive” and has a lot of dead brain cells!
Anti-Spiegel is one of the best analysts on Ukraine that there is on the internet.
Oh yes, that’s why I gave the source, it’s in German but Chrome, for example, translates with a right mouse click

Posted by: ossi | Oct 18 2024 13:11 utc | 163

Having broken through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defenses in Chasovy Yar, the Russians have already advanced 2.5 km west of the canal in the south of the city, writes Bild military analyst Julian Repke.
And the Ukrainian military admits the rapid loss of the city, which they managed to defend along the canal for the last 5-6 months.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21259

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops have advanced into the city blocks of Chasov Yar.
The Russian Armed Forces are trying to deepen another breakthrough in the main line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area, since in its southern part along the canal in Chasov Yar, it has been broken through. Russian units have advanced 2.5 km.
The Wall Street Journal, having talked to Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting in Chasov Yar, writes that the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are beginning to weaken here. For six months, Ukrainian forces have been holding back the Russian onslaught behind the canal, but this week Russian units managed to break through in two areas.
“It only takes one mistake, and Chasov Yar can fall in a matter of days,” says company commander Rostislav Kasyanenko.
This advance “could mean a significant step for Russia to capture the city.” And the loss of Chasov Yar, along with Pokrovsk, “is key in Moscow’s attempts” to capture the Donetsk region.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21260

Posted by: Down South | Oct 18 2024 13:39 utc | 165

If the military had their way Russia would be in Transnistria by now, Putin is hopeless, must be replaced … he should have nuked London and the Baltics two years ago …. what?? Sorry, I just came over all Shadowbanned …
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 17 2024 15:32 utc | 36
This is why military force is politics by other means and not the other way around. The military works for the government … the government doesn’t work for the military.
Im sure the Russian military could be in Transnistria by now but at what cost? Ukraine has NATO ISR … there’s no element of surprise any more so the Russians would still be forced into taking 100 meter nibbles at Ukraine territory.
Georgy Zhukov could have taken Ukraine in a month but look at his record … Russia would have been light about 3 million young men when he was done.
The Russians could nuke their way to the Polish border but how would that play diplomatically?
Nuclear weapons are indiscriminant and the initial light pulse causes third degree burns at a far greater distance than the blast radius. Anyone exposed to that light pulse gets third degree burns … imaging the field day the western media would have with children with their flesh hanging off them … they didn’t print those pictures from Hiroshima but they sure as hell would if Russia used nukes.
Aside from that the prevailing winds are westerly … any fallout would head Russia’s way.
How do you think that would affect Russia diplomatically? Who would want to join BRICS led by a boneified war criminal? Who would buy Russian oil?
The whole point of sanctions was to isolate Russia internationally … Russia uses nukes and they just accomplished what sanctions couldn’t do.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 18 2024 14:20 utc | 167

167:
It’s definitely some progress and interesting. Something to watch with Chasiv Yar. The captured mine is a few klicks from the old front line and as such is a significant advance. Next step for the RFA is to expand that area to include nearby, small structures.
Note that this (new) area, RFA is in, is still “down the hill” from the main fortress of Chasiv Yar. So it’s not really “sentinels in the hovercraft” (from The Matrix) as when RFA penetrated Vuhledar. But it does give some possibilities for future avenues of attack on the main part of Chasiv Yar, or even progress to the W to cut off supply routes. It’s definitely progress and a change in the situation, but not an immediate precipitant of collapse. The situation will need to continue to be developed further.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 14:31 utc | 169

@142,
Boss, but how are those western sponsors going to extract those “vast” untapped resources that Ukraine has if it becomes a desolated wasteland? Isn’t letting Western companies get those resources one of the points Zelenskis deluded “victory” plan?
How is Lindsay Graham going to get his paycheck then?

Posted by: JamesBond | Oct 18 2024 14:54 utc | 171

The Empire really messed up in 1994.
When they had Russia on the matt why did they allow the Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapon arsenal to Russia in 1994?
If they had let them keep the weapons they would be screwed now-there wouldn’t an SMO against a nuclear armed Ukraine-the West would have Russia checkmated.
Perhaps Yeltsin or whomever master minded this on Russia’s side was as stupid or as corrupt as we thought-the Empire really f.cked that one up.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 18 2024 15:34 utc | 173

I was (extremely tangentially) involved. We just wanted to keep the number of nuclear states limited. And at that time, we saw Ukrops and Russkis as very similar in traits, good and bad. (I actually still think this is the case.) Plus, if we ever needed to invade Ukraine, it was/would be much easier sans nuclear weapons.
You have to remember that at that time, there was significant concern about nuclear technology and just instability in general propagating out of separated Soviet republics or even out of Russia itself.
It was an interesting time. Within 10 years, we went from looking at them as a too the death peer competitor of the Cold War, to seeing them as the “sick man of Europe”. The Hunt for Red October has a name for itself a the “last Cold War movie”. But the book came out in the heart of the Cold War and in a period that we expected to last for decades more.
Within the military, there was extreme skepticism even as Gorbachev came to power. We all thought he would be another Kruschev. When the Berlin Wall fell it was very much unexpected. I was on vacation in Germany a year before and had orders not to go into the Warsaw Block. (Both our side AND their side was against it.)

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 16:01 utc | 175

The Empire really messed up in 1994.
When they had Russia on the matt why did they allow the Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapon arsenal to Russia in 1994?
If they had let them keep the weapons they would be screwed now-there wouldn’t an SMO against a nuclear armed Ukraine-the West would have Russia checkmated.
Perhaps Yeltsin or whomever master minded this on Russia’s side was as stupid or as corrupt as we thought-the Empire really f.cked that one up.
Posted by: canuck | Oct 18 2024 15:34 utc | 175
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Such nonsense!
Don’t think Gorbachev is so stupid that he would give nuclear weapons and their production or the machinery to a republic that is breaking away.
The author should realize how stupid this post is if he thinks about it a little.
Not even the West would have allowed it back then, because the governments that followed were anything but friendly to the West… People’s minds were only influenced by the West from around 2012 and from 2014 onwards they were completely tempted.

Posted by: ossi | Oct 18 2024 16:33 utc | 177

Posted by: ossi | Oct 18 2024 16:33 utc | 179
The original constitution of Ukraine stated that Ukraine was neutral, nuclear-free and not part of any military alliance. Under those conditions Russia, US and UK signed the Budapest memorandum.
The Maidan overthrow of the Ukrainian government changed all that. In 2018, after the Maidan coup, the Ukrainian constitution was changed to make EU and NATO accession a goal. That buried the Budapest memorandum.

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 18 2024 17:08 utc | 179

@183
“Andrei Raevsky should be your nemesis. Not some illusionary suits in the EU or the USA.”
I’m not sure what you mean. After all, Andrei warned against the perils of war in the weeks leading up to the conflict’s start in 2022.

Posted by: GW | Oct 18 2024 18:18 utc | 181

Posted by: The Kaker | Oct 18 2024 18:07 utc | 183
Just for the public record, could you clarify how many books you have written and had published? What are their titles? Where can I purchase them?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 18:42 utc | 183

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 18 2024 18:55 utc | 187
Just asking the guy some questions, nothing argumentative about it. Don’t look for hidden sub-texts when there aren’t any.
Cheers for now.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 19:48 utc | 185

Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’ to Secure Admission to NATO Troubling for Alliance
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s so-called victory plan is inconvenient for NATO, which has been distancing itself from the promise to admit Ukraine, Florian Philippot, a French politician and leader of the Patriots party, told RIA Novosti.
“Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ is completely absurd, even inconvenient for NATO, which is trying to distance itself in some aspects, for instance from the issue of Ukraine’s immediate admission, which would set the stage for a third world war,” Philippot said.
He suggested that Zelensky was trying to globalize the conflict in every possible way after suffering defeat after defeat on the battlefield.
“Zelensky is pushing the West toward a third world war. It is a suicidal strategy because he is losing, and that is why he has presented this insane plan, which puts his allies in an awkward position. His only chance to win is a world war, otherwise, he is finished,” Philippot said.
Philippot suggested that Zelensky was trying to push the West into sending troops to Ukraine. He said that the “secret clause” about having the West deploy a “non-nuclear deterrence package” to Ukraine seemed odd after Zelensky’s earlier admission that he would seek nuclear weapons for Ukraine if it did not join NATO.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 20:05 utc | 187

Re: earlier commentaries on respective casualty numbers, several sources are reporting a mutual repatriation of the deceased viz 501 to Ukraine, 89 to Russia.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 18 2024 20:14 utc | 189

Overview of the current status of the Ukraine War, by nominally neutral analyst, Markus Reisner (Austria):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2fjrJt3LU
Main theme is the evolution of technology on the modern attrition battlefield (drones, turtle tanks, etc.)

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 20:59 utc | 191

Ukrainian losses for the week October 12th to October 18th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry. A big jump in the Kursk losses, including another 23 tanks, 66 LAV/HMV and 4 MLRS – such an utter waste on the failed Kursk venture. The other fronts are starved of armoured vehicles to feed the hungry beast of the Kursk region.
– Kursk & Kharkiv fronts: 2,745 troops, 23 tanks, 2 IFV, 1 APC, 66 LAV/HMV, 75 motor vehicles, 4 MLRS, 29 artillery pieces.
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 3,150 troops, 3 tanks, 4 APC, 5 LAV/HMV, 38 motor vehicles, 21 artillery pieces, 5 EW and counter-battery system.
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 5,080 troops, 4 LAV/HMV, 24 motor vehicles, 22 artillery pieces, 4 EW systems.
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 3,350 troops, 2 APC, 11 LAV/ HMV, 27 motor vehicles, 18 artillery pieces.
– Vostok Group (southern front): 790 troops, 1 APC, 4 LAV/HMV, 33 motor vehicles, 6 artillery piece.
– Dnepr Group: 380 troops, 40 motor vehicles, 7 artillery piece, 2 EW and counter-battery system.
In total: 15,495 troops (67,145 per month, with undercounting probably 75,000 plus).
26 tanks (23 in Kursk/Kharkov), 2 IFV, 8 APC, 90 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (66 in Kursk/Khakrov), 237 motor vehicles. A big jump in losses, including 23 tanks, 2 IFV, 1 APC and 66 LAV/HMV, in the Kursk region – more waste of limited armoured resources in that area. Elsewhere, the usual story of a reliance on motor vehicles.
103 artillery pieces (29 in Kursk/Kharkov), 4 MLRS (all in Kursk/Kharkov), 11 EW and counter-battery systems (0 in Kursk/Kharkov). A big drop to about 450/mth rate of artillery losses and continued EW/counter battery losses.
Total losses so far for the Ukrainians in the Kursk front have been 24,367 troops, 167 tanks, 79 IFV, 101 APC, 952 LAV/HMV, 651 motor vehicles, 200 artillery pieces, 38 MLRS, 57 EW and counter-battery systems

Posted by: Roger | Oct 18 2024 21:21 utc | 193

For example, who made fuckface Roman Arkad’evič Abramovič part of the Russian negotiating team in Gomel and Istanbul? In any case, it wasn’t Putin, because the two are deeply hostile (Putin is not a patron or even a friend of A., as is sometimes claimed) …
Who ultimately wrote the two ultimatums to the US and NATO from December 2022?
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 18 2024 17:06 utc | 180
<= Empire Zionism is everywhere, its in every bodies business.it directs from within the governments that manage the nation states.. Your questions are extremely important to explaining the SMO slow go, the half hearted support of Syria, and the failure to protect the players in the middle east from Israel and Turkey. Its about oil and gas investments, and access to markets etc.

Posted by: snake | Oct 18 2024 22:12 utc | 195

DS Map Intel is out.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/51.3284403/35.1596832
Another very slow day. About 6.5 kmsq. (SEP pace was at 16 kmsq/day.)
S to N:
1. 1 kmsq in the fields NW of Vuhledar. No strategic significance.
2. 3 kmsq in the fields S of Maksimilianivka and W of Heorivka. Strategic in that it is part of the shaping operation to go after Kurakhove. Widening the flanks of the salient and starting to take control of a supply road (for RFA use, not to cut it as it’ not supplying the town now). However, this is still very far from the main objective and a lot more (months, probably) shaping is needed.
3. 3 kmsq in the fields between Klishnivvka and Andriivka (well S of Chasiv Yar). Seems strategically irrelevant.
4. (+UFA) Loss of 0.5 kmsq of an RFA salient from Pischane towards the Oskil. Shows the UFA retains ability to counterattack and that RFA is not prioritizing this sector.
5. Looked at Kursk, but no changes, even gray zone. I do think at least a gray zone towards Malaya Loknia needs to be shown, based on other reports. Guess we need to wait though.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 18 2024 22:34 utc | 197

Then there’s things like Kursk. The list goes on. But I have to go out shopping, so I’ll leave it there. Makes no difference anyway. No matter what I say Russia remains stuck in a quagmire it cannot extract itself from.
Posted by: Debbie | Oct 18 2024 22:11 utc | 200
Before I go to have my hair done at the hairdressers, just a quick reply Debsie regarding your comment. All wars are quagmires. Kiev is deeper in a quagmire than Russia, far deeper. It is in danger of being sucked under. Russia meanwhile, continues to control the battlefield on all fronts. Its just a matter of time before Kiev collapses completely in the mother of all messes. Bye dearie….hope you get what you want shopping!

Posted by: Jill | Oct 18 2024 22:34 utc | 199