Every single day the Russian population falls by 1500 people. And that isn’t counting their war casualties. That is just their death rate + emigration + birthrate + immigration. Net -1500 per day. That is 550,000 people per year.

Posted by: Andrew Perpetua | Oct 15 2024 11:25 utc | 204

By the end of the century, assuming no black swan events, Russian population will fall to around 120-130 million depending which projection you enjoy. However, others believe it could fall under 100 million if the country enters a great depression type event after the war.

Posted by: Andrew Perpetua | Oct 15 2024 11:57 utc | 206

Russia is nuking its entire economy (the real one, not the value of the GDP) in that “SMO”. Russian is suffering from brain drain, the social systems are crippled, its capability to trade with the west is also crippled and have to sell oil and LNG at sales price to others countries that only want the raw resources. If tomorrow the war ends it would require a significant amounth of time to get the relations with the west at the same level as before the war, and earned every single one of those problems.
Even if Ukranie can’t hold it, and the west will help it to hold it, Russia is absolutely demolished so yeah, It is working.

Posted by: Huma Dracobane | Oct 15 2024 12:12 utc | 208

Posted by: Huma Dracobane | Oct 15 2024 12:12 utc | 211
You‘ll find plenty of articles in western mainstream media who will tell you, that the russian economy is performing much stronger than expected (which greatly saddens the mainstream media shills).
So why can‘t you nafo trolls not made up your mind? You are constantly contradicting yourselves.

Posted by: NoName | Oct 15 2024 12:35 utc | 210

@ Mario | Oct 15 2024 12:21 utc | 212
It’s the latest — hopefully the last — NAFO line. Since even they can no longer snigger about a Ukronazi victory without blushing with shame, they cackle about a Russian Pyrrhic victory. That’s why they don’t mention the Ukronazi demographic catastrophe: It would be just too embarrassing.
The most hilarious part about their new line are the claims about how Russia will suffer from being cut off from Europe…when the last thing Russia needs is to collect assets that the Euros have already demonstrated a willingness to confiscate.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 15 2024 12:45 utc | 212

S has a new post, including a point I discussed some weeks ago, going behind the AFU southern line, is discussed but with an absurd pressing from the south, instead of closing the mother of all cauldrons by a drive to zaporizhzhya through the E105 (ignoring a probe already took place in kamyanske)
Holding the kramatorsk pokrovsk pokrovske zaporizhzhya arc would be the last least bad scenario for the AFU

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 15 2024 13:11 utc | 214

206:
Really good point. I was kind of more struck by the biased nature of it. But the grift (or even just engagement grift, if a completely free source) is a big part of it.
And really these two things are conflated. A pro UFA crowd wants to hear pro UFA news (Denys Davydov even admits this and says he uses a biased headline and always leads with good news…but persists in giving the real picture later in the video, even if a setback). The same is clearly true with the pro RFA hoi polloi.
———
FWIW, I’m actually trying to read and react to the content that DS shares. Sometimes there are little granules of news in there. Sometimes it’s this rehash as new stuff. Sometimes it’s the news dressed up with a lot of rah rah (“the enemy”, “pray for the guys”, “resisted a counterattack” [when you should be advancing!]).

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 15 2024 15:16 utc | 216

Can’t tell if this is an S-300 strike but it looks effective.
https://t.me/infomil_live/11091

Footage of missile strikes on the workshops of the Nikolaev armored plant last night.
Five ballistic missiles hit the target, enemy resources reported the use of 5V55 anti-aircraft missiles from the S-300 air defense system.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 15 2024 16:08 utc | 218

@Posted by: Andrew Perpetua | Oct 15 2024 11:25 utc | 207

Every single day the Russian population falls by 1500 people. And that isn’t counting their war casualties. That is just their death rate + emigration + birthrate + immigration. Net -1500 per day. That is 550,000 people per year.

Official demographic figures take into account any deaths, including those at the front i.e. “war casualties”. Quite a chunk of these were also from Russian jails, so more a gain than a loss to society. Russia is very carefully managing the war to limit its own casualties, as evidenced by the Mediazona numbers; the state values its able bodied working age population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Russia’s demographics show a big chunk of old people 60+ entering their years of increasing death rates and heavily over-represented by females. The biggest demographic bulge is 35 to 45 years old, people who are in or entering the prime productive years, then a smaller bulge at 5 to 15 (until quite recently the birth rate was substantially higher), people who will be entering the workforce over the next 10+ years. This means that the workforce will be increasing well into the 2030s, Russia has no issue with a reduced workforce until probably the 2040s and even then it will have a sizeable cohort only just entering its most productive years.
The current low birth rates will not really impact for another two decades, in the interim less children means less dependants and more old people dying means less dependants. Russia’s net migration is actually positive, adding to the population. Migrants tend to be of working age, so reduce the dependancy ratio. And with respect to the Russians who left after the start of the SMO, “Recent studies show that 15 percent to 45 percent of Russian emigrants have returned to Russia, and the process is expected to continue, prompting speculation that Russia is gradually reversing its brain drain following the 2022 migration crisis.” The fears of bad treatment in Russia have not been fulfilled and living in limbo abroad gets old fast, especially when big destinations such as Georgia start realigning with Russia.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/07/russian-emigration-in-flux?lang=en
With demographics the devil can always be in the details, throwing around gross numbers can be a mugs game and extremely misleading.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 15 2024 16:33 utc | 220

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 15 2024 16:47 utc | 222
Supposedly they can but it still seems like an unusual claim. I’m not sure the specifics of the Army Recognition article below should be taken at face value without solid corroboration.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/65668

Consecutive arrival of at least 5 Iskander missiles at the armored vehicle plant in Nikolaev. No air defense. Control is carried out from UAVs.

https://armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/russia-repurposes-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-for-ground-attacks-against-the-city-of-kharkiv

….
To repurpose the S-300 for ground attacks, two primary modifications are undertaken. Firstly, the system’s radar and software algorithms are reconfigured to detect and track ground-based threats instead of aerial targets. This involves adjusting the system’s parameters and algorithms to enable the identification and engagement of ground targets, such as vehicles or personnel.
Secondly, the missiles themselves are modified. To target ground threats, the missiles are equipped with different types of warheads, such as blast fragmentation or armor-piercing warheads, which are more effective against ground-based targets. Additionally, adjustments to the missile’s guidance system are necessary to improve trajectory and accuracy for land targets. These adaptations underscore the evolving nature of military technology and tactics in the ongoing conflict.
…

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/65661

🇺🇦 Kamikaze drones “KVN” (ed: “Prince Vandal of Novgorod” fiber-optic drones) find equipment of the occupiers in the Kursk forests.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 15 2024 18:05 utc | 222

https://t.me/filatovcorr/4127

Later, our allies were able, having much more human resources than we had (there was a whole brigade advancing there), to break through the defense in the city blocks, west of the park. Krasnogorovka was taken by joint efforts, but the decisive role in this whole matter was played by the Assault Detachment, under the command of Bely, 110th Brigade.
There is video for all my statements, that is, recording by means of objective control. I can confirm all this. In any situation and justify this to anyone who doubts the correctness of my conclusions. Although I am not a maestro of military journalism, and so – miserable dust under the hooves of their horses)))
According to the map.
Green lines – supply of the Armed Forces. Green cross in the pond – we blew up the bridge and made it difficult for them to jump in, they had to jump through the allied artillery control zone, or through the farm in the Lenin state farm.
Yellow check marks – the reach zone of our “small aviation” to the logistics routes and where we chopped dill.
The lilac line is the third stage of the movement of our Stormtroopers.
White lines from the “madhouse” – the movement of the 110th Regiment, which first entered with the support of Topol and the guys adopted our tactics.
Blue line – the road that Bely restored in the rains!!! Dump trucks drove in the rain. 22 trips and the road to Krasnogorovka is ready!
Now draw your own conclusions whether Bely deserves the title of Hero of Russia.
Bely managed to debug the work of “small aviation” in THREE months of continuous fighting, constantly changed the assault tactics, built a training ground and developed a system for training personnel for our tactics of warfare.
During the assault on Krasnogorovka, we lost less than 40 people 200.
I mourn the fallen, but this is war.
#freedomforCommanderBely

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 15 2024 18:39 utc | 224

@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 15 2024 19:26 utc | 226
Yes. It would be interesting to know whether they were intentionally designed to be modifiable or whether it was done out of necessity because, for example, the stocks of missiles normally used for ground targets were shrinking significantly.
It is at least claimed that both sides are modifying AD missiles so that they can hit ground targets.
In the Wikipedia-article about the S-300 I found this excerpt:
“The system can destroy ground targets at a range of 120 kilometres (75 mi) and when launched on a ballistic trajectory, can reach up to 400 kilometres (250 mi).”
Source to that seems to be a webpage from Belarus.

Posted by: NoName | Oct 15 2024 19:44 utc | 226

https://t.me/bes_pilot/2434

✈️American developers from the startup Theseus have presented a visual navigation system for UAVs that operates in areas without GPS signals. Navigation is performed using an accelerometer/gyroscope and a camera, the image from which is compared with Google Maps satellite images pre-loaded into the system.
🗺 You can install such a navigation unit in about half an hour on almost any UAV. So, Theseus compares the area it flies over with Google maps, and then “deceives” the drone and gives it a fake GPS signal, making it “think” that it is flying on a satellite signal. The system is completely autonomous, cannot be jammed and has no radio frequency signature.

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/theseus

We’ve built a Visual Navigation System (VNS) that can be retrofit onto any drone that mimics a GPS. Our VNS uses cameras and an accelerometer/gyroscope as well as reference satellite imagery for positioning. The system is entirely self contained, can’t be jammed and has no RF signature.
…
Six months ago we did a hackathon, this month we sold to SOCOM. Our Visual Navigation System (VNS) uses cameras, an inertial measurement unit, and pre-loaded satellite imagery to determine its position and send a fake GPS signal to any drone. Integrations typically take <30min.
HOW IT STARTED
In February, Carl was a Senior at Stanford, Sacha was a PhD student at Yale, and Ian was working with a British celebrity. After our post went viral, we spent weeks talking with troops on the ground, drone manufacturers, and DoD.
We learned that:
- The front lines of Ukraine are 100% GPS-denied
- Cheap, DIY drones are extremely effective but typically rely on GPS
- Existing GPS alternatives are extremely heavy and extremely expensive
We set out to create a low-cost, low-weight replacement for GPS that works with any drone.
HOW IT’S GOING
Our first customer in the Special Forces has enabled us to push our VNS to its limits, and the results have been impressive. Here are a few excerpts from a memorandum written by the Captain we work with:
“Having tested the Theseus’ VizNav system for a week, I am convinced that their technology presents the best solution for a current, and ever-expanding urgent operational need.”
…
“As a company, Theseus has shown a willingness to seek the ground truth from the operator and make improvements based on these recommendations immediately. The progress they have made with limited funding gives me incredible confidence that they act quicker and more efficiently than any other vendors we have worked with.”
…
Due to the sensitive nature of our product, technical details and customer-specific information in this post will be limited. We are happy to discuss results in more detail privately.
GOING FORWARD
America is way behind. The current demand for drones in Ukraine is 1-2 million yearly. Every country in the world sees this and is in the process of building out its arsenal. Our product affordably enables an entirely new capability set for every one of these platforms.
We have sold units to multiple customers, have six-figure LOIs from large drone manufacturers, integrations scheduled, and eight figures in funding for our VNS requested by the DoD for FY25.
The West needs to build millions of drones, and all of those drones need Theseus.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 15 2024 20:23 utc | 228

So sad that all of Ukraine and most of Russia will have countless of disabled people roaming around, often times forgotten and neglected. Suicides will sky rocket, alcoholism and a massive hit to the workforce but look at the bright side, all of this is most likely part of the western plan for Eastern Europe, those who do not bend the knee will pay the price.

Posted by: rebel one | Oct 15 2024 21:55 utc | 230

Any intelligence, or informed speculation, of what was so important about the Dnipro factory bombed 5 times by accurate missile strikes?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 16 2024 7:12 utc | 232

Helmer: Dmitry Rogozin For President
https://johnhelmer.net/dmitry-rogozin-for-president/
“…The debate in Moscow over the terms of Istanbul-1 and of Putin’s proposed Istanbul-2 involves much more than future control of the territories east of the Dnieper and of the territories to the west.
The question is whether the military trust Putin to administer the outcome of the war which Russian voters believe has been won by the General Staff.
In his June 14 speech Putin admitted to an audience of senior Foreign Ministry officials what they all knew – that he and the General Staff had disagreed over the ‘preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty over these territories provided Russia has a stable land bridge to Crimea’.
Putin’s ‘land-bridge’ and other territorial concessions were dismissed by the General Staff…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 16 2024 9:15 utc | 234

By the end of the century, assuming no black swan events, Russian population will fall to around 120-130 million depending which projection you enjoy. However, others believe it could fall under 100 million if the country enters a great depression type event after the war.
Posted by: Andrew Perpetua | Oct 15 2024 11:57 utc | 207

And what will the population of the EU be at the end of the century?
By 2100, Europe’s population is set to shrink by 21 per cent from its peak in 2020, marking the largest decline of any continent, per FT.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Oct 16 2024 22:19 utc | 236

Putin made everything dirty and trashed any progress people made in spite of him, not because of him at every level. The economy is at breaking point, the military is humiliated and he’s exacerbated the demographic crisis in his country. He’s writing his name in the history books. In crayon.

Posted by: Technoinalbania | Oct 17 2024 1:23 utc | 238