1917 and Anonimous are like a chiken and a pug discussing how a farmer should cook his poultry and his pork, and claiming that they know it better than him.

Posted by: Bim | Oct 14 2024 1:39 utc | 104

DS Map intel just dropped.
https://deepstatemap.live/en/#7/48.9044488/31.7175293
10.5 kmsq and thus a small day. Well under pace of SEP. Similar to previous OCT days. All pro RFA news. No big strategic changes, just pecking away. Except perhaps in Kursk.
Kind of long to analyze because of the various small advances.
S to N:
1. About 3.5 kmsq in the fields S of Zolata Nyva (which is on the line of villages E of Vuhledar). No advance in the gray, just conversion to red. But to give DS credit, this is not long held gray and not that deep a pocket.
2. About 3.5 kmsq in the fields N of Vuhledar. I have been disappointed that the fall of that town, did not lead to a big crack. Even just taking the fields near the town has seemed to take a while. All that said, it does show progress, which never could have occurred before the “hinge” town was taken. And RFA is now about halfway from Vuhledar to Bohoiavlenka (next town N).
3. No acreage, but large gray zone move S of Tsukuryne to the NW of Ismailivka (or NE of Novoselydivka). Kind of strategic in that it menaces Hirnyk with encirclement.
4. About .5 kmsq in Tsukuryne. Nearly all the town is in the red now, excepting the farm/industry to the W of it. And even that is in the gray now. Large movement of the gray. So perhaps they get a big kmsq gain in a couple days when DS converts that gray to red.
5. Three small advances in the Chasov Yar area, none in the town proper.
a. About 1 kmsq in fields E of Ivanivske. A road crossing was taken. Real advance (gray zone moved). Mildly strategic in that it could precede a move to envelope Chasov Yar from the S. Lot more needs to develop to get close. And we will see if RFA follows up or not. But it at least menaces such a possibility.
b. About 0.5 kmsq in fields SW of Kalynivka. Mostly a gray conversion.
c. About 1.5 kmsq in fields S of Hryhorivka. A real advance, with gray moving. Had been speculated months ago that they might move in this direction and start hoovering up territory on the E side of the canal, in the area N of Chasov Yar. Finally seeing a bit of it. Have to see if it continues or not. Hryhorivka is more menaced as well, with Russians in broader front to S flank of that small village.
6. Large advance of RFA (both gray and control) in the vicinity of Korenovo. UFA is still sort of in a salient, but it sort of appears that they are in the process of withdrawing that whole tentacle NW of the Lybi-Novoiv line. Probably just need another day or two to complete it, given the amount of area. Interestingly the strange surrounded RFA in Kremanoe is now no longer encircled, but connected to rest of RFA forces. [No kmsq credited, as I don’t credit the Ukrops in AUG with the territory either. And Russians need to get to par with having their own land controlled…no credit for getting some of it back. If they drive across the border towards Sumy? I will credit that.]

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 14 2024 2:47 utc | 106

Posted by: N.Hanrahan | Oct 14 2024 3:26 utc | 107
Yes, the Georgia case is instructive.
My prediction has long been that Ukraine will split in 2025 or 2026 into multiple regions under control of local oligarchs working with rebel brigade commanders (or maybe enlisted men who kill all their patriotic Galician officers), and with Russian financial lifeline (because Ukraine is going broke as soon as EU turns off the money spigot). Then many years of low intensity fighting while Russia finishes demilitarizing Galicia.
Galicia+ region (everything west of Kyiv or maybe west of Zhytomyr/Vinnitsia) eventually becomes independent and joins EU (but not NATO) and becomes reasonably prosperous, maybe level of Slovakia, because they still have power from 2 nuclear plants plus gas/oil transit fees from Russia and Lviv still intact.
Rump Ukraine (including Kyiv) told to wait for EU membership and the wait is endless because rump Ukraine is an agricultural superpower and thus threat to rest of EU farmers, plus rump is totally bankrupt and full of pensioners and crippled war veterans who would suck EU dry of welfare money. Eventually, rump Ukraine gets tired of waiting and joins Russia-China block. This will be 20 years from now and rump Ukraine will have a population of under 10 million and be primarily agricultural/mining, with the industrial sector still in ruins.

Posted by: anonposter | Oct 14 2024 5:02 utc | 108

“At the current rate of ~500 km^2 of territory taken a month, Russia will take over the whole of Ukraine some time in the early 22nd century. Yes, you read that correct.”
Based on movements until March 1943, how many centuries would it take the Russians to get to Berlin? Don’t forget to factor in the Battle of Kursk.
Posted by: Neven | Oct 13 2024 22:07 utc | 75

See above. Germany was getting supplies from all of Europe, but only France, Belgium the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway were on its western side. As the Soviets moved east, they took over territories that Germany used to supply its war effort, and thus the collapse accelerated.

Aha, so you admit that basing Soviet post-1943 progress on pre-1943 territorial gains would not work. Why then would you do that now? Saying that “At the current rate of ~500 km^2 of territory taken a month, Russia will take over the whole of Ukraine some time in the early 22nd century” just sounds silly. Sure, conditions now are different from those in 1943, but nobody can predict what will happen. Or say exactly what it is that the Russians can do and want to do.

Posted by: Neven | Oct 14 2024 7:43 utc | 110

Posted by: 1917 | Oct 13 2024 16:19 utc | 14
then let’s take him at his word
“…Instead of calling people trolls and paid shills, it would be a good idea to present a factual refutation of what is being presented as objective facts.…”
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 12 2024 14:09 utc | 150

Well here we go. Apparently, a F-16 shot down a Su-34. I realize it’s Newsweek reporting it but they are getting the story from Russian Telegram channels …

based on this FAKE he must continue to drool…
not even ukr. sources claim that !!!
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1040926-russian-su-34-fighter-could-be-shot-down-by-f-16-isw
Russian Su-34 fighter could be shot down by F-16 — ISW

as a footnote:
this Journaille added another lie
“…Recall that the russian blogger Fighterbomber published an obituary about the crew of the Su-34 fighter without providing details of his death…”

his source of choice for downed russian planes — fighter_bomber write that there isn’t a downed Su-34
but of course he does not use this source in this case

https://t.me/s/fighter_bomber — 13.10.2024 — edited 08:29
Your subscribers. This is the third year of the war. A war not only on the battlefield, but also on the Internet. Both ours and not ours are fighting for your, in some places, fragile brains. And just like on the battlefield, somewhere someone succeeds in winning and someone fails.
All “authoritative”, “verified”, “official” and “honest” sources have been out in the garden a long time ago. They either brazenly piss in your ears or don’t tell you the whole truth, or don’t tell you anything at all.
It’s different in all cases. Someone gets money for pure lies, someone does not tell the whole truth in the languid hope not to sit down.
That’s the way it is.
Of course, tg channels are divided into real and fake ones. The Khokhls pretend to be patriots of Russia and by faking channels like Samaya Rossiya Rossiya or, there, for fair justice, etc. And we do exactly the same. It’s not normal, it’s a given that we have to accept.
Nobody shot down our Su-34. Especially not a pissed F-16 with pussies at the wheel, which has been hunted by everyone since it appeared in Ukraine.
Our fighters in an attempt to reach it often violate all available instructions and directives, and only persuasions of OBUins and KP lead them out of risky approaches to attack.
The Khokhls know it very well, that’s why F-16s fly exclusively for tiktoks, not actually participating in combat operations, at most trying to ram another Geran in the deep rear.
This is also a given.
Our airplanes are at war, but we do not always lose them to enemy fire or our own. In most cases, equipment (and crews) are lost due to failures, incorrect crew actions or loss of orientation in space.
Sometimes airplanes and helicopters have to attack and evade enemy missiles without seeing anything but instruments, which do not always show correct information. At night, in the clouds, at tremendous speeds and overloads.
Not all our crews are aces, there are young crews, there are recent graduates, there are insufficiently trained or untrained crews. There are a lot of different factors that can lead to an airplane or helicopter crash.
So observe information hygiene, don’t take information from any fucking channels, especially Western media, and most importantly, don’t help them in their war for your brains. Don’t spread shit to your friends, family and relatives.
The classic question “What about Su-34/Ka-52/Su-25?” in 90% of cases is asked by Khokhls. It is so that you start looking for information on various resources and, failing to find a direct answer on the reliable ones, start looking for it in garbage dumps. And finally, having found it, began to carry it further yourself.
Therefore, I have for such questions immediately goes ban.
Citizens, be vigilant and observe information hygiene!

Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 14 2024 7:52 utc | 112

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Battles in Sudzha District and Incident near Zeleny Shlyakh
Situation as of the end of October 13, 2024
In the Kursk Direction, Russian forces are engaged in fierce battles in the area of Lyubimovka. At the same time, the fire strike on the enemy’s infrastructure in Sumy Region continues unabated.
🔻In Glushkovo District, Russian forces are trying to dislodge Ukrainian formations from Novy Put, located on the border with the so-called Ukraine. Several counterattacks by the AFU have also been repelled.
🔻In Korenevo District, the battle for Lyubimovka continues. According to some reports, the enemy has already left the village. Several AFU attacks from Tolsty Lug and towards Pokrovskoye have been repelled.
🔻The Internet is actively discussing statements about the allegedly unlawful “execution” of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Sudzha District. South of Zeleny Shlyakh, Russian forces, during a clearing operation of a stronghold at the intersection of roads, eliminated enemy UAV operators who, according to Ukrainian speakers, “fought to the last round”.
❗️In the context of battles with occupation forces in the “old” part of Russia, which are even officially declared as terrorists in the briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, members of Ukrainian formations, perhaps, should not have expected anything else. Moreover, UAV operators are always a priority target for fire strikes for both sides, so their elimination is justified.
▪️In the northwest of Sudzha District, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a series of artillery strikes on enemy positions in Russkoye Porechnoye, and the configuration of the front line in Cherkasska Konopelka has been clarified.
North of Martynivka, near the settlement of Kruhlyk, Russian UAV operators struck AFU positions. Thus, the forest belt south of the village is currently held by Ukrainian formations.
The actions of ground forces are supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces, striking enemy strongholds and personnel concentration areas. Here, a tank and a pickup truck of the enemy were recently struck by drone strikes on fiber-optic cables.
▪️In the sky over Sudzha and its surroundings, more than a dozen cases of Ukrainian interceptor drones shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones have been recorded in recent days. So far, UAV losses do not lead to significant consequences on the battlefield, but the increase in the number of effective strikes on Russian UAVs in several areas should be taken into account.
▪️In Sumy Region, Russian forces are striking various enemy targets both in the administrative center and beyond. For example, in the area of Kiyanytsya, Sumy Region, a missile strike was delivered from the Iskander OTRK on the position of the Vampire MLRS.

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18464

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2024 8:14 utc | 114

… Western currency counterfeiting in an attempt to maintain things just brings a wider downfall closer.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 13 2024 21:02 utc | 61
So long as you’ll be standing by your assessment, which is falsified if there is no near term collapse, as with expired versions of the same argument.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 9:05 utc | 116

which is falsified if there is no near term collapse
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 9:05 utc | 116
—
Inevitably soonish

Reserve Requirements
As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.
ref ==> https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm

Posted by: too scents | Oct 14 2024 9:17 utc | 118

Информация о заходе и тем более закреплении наших войск на окраины Суджи пока не соответствует действительности. Уже рядом, но пока еще не там.
Information about the entry and even more so the consolidation of our troops on the outskirts of Sudzha is not yet true. Already nearby, but not there yet.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/140738

Posted by: guest | Oct 14 2024 10:09 utc | 120

In the Kursk direction, Ukrainian troops were driven out of Lyubimovka, the remnants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group are fighting west of Lyubimovka (in the wooded floodplain of the Snagost River) and Tolstoy Lug. This entire territory is already in the “gray zone”, and the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison are trying to break through to Novodmitrovka-Leonidovka. At the same time, Russian offensive battles are already underway in Novoivanovka.
To the south, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Nizhny Klin and Darino, trying to break through to the south in the direction of Sverdlikovo.
In Kushchina, the Ukrainian troops are experiencing many problems due to the autumn thaw, which the Ukrainian military complains about. Aidar fighter Stanislav Bunyatov writes that rainy weather interferes with the work of drones and military equipment.
“In the rain, our drones cannot work effectively. “The tracked vehicle can still move while the ground is not too wet, but the wheeled vehicle gets stuck pretty well. You can’t replace artillery with drones, and neither can you replace mining,” he said.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21212

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2024 10:19 utc | 122

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/26/ukraine-is-on-the-defensive-militarily-economically-and-diplomatically
Ignoring the usual “six Russian casualties to one Ukrainian” blether, The Globalist:
“whereas most of the Russian troops have signed up voluntarily for generous pay, Ukraine is relying ever more on conscription. Officers complain that many of those drafted into service are ill-suited to fighting: too old, too ill, too drunk. There is no clear path out of the army once in it, which makes being mobilised seem like a one-way ticket to the morgue. Some 5-10% of soldiers on active duty are absent without leave. The authorities are prosecuting lots of deserters, but they do not command as much fear as Mr Putin’s regime. Fewer than 30% of Ukrainians consider draft-dodging shameful, according to an opinion poll. These problems have been exacerbated to some extent by Ukraine’s incursion into the Russian province of Kursk, which began in August. Although this offensive reaffirmed Ukraine’s capacity to seize the initiative, outsmart Russian forces and embarrass Mr Putin, it also extended the front lines and stretched Ukraine’s supply-lines. It has not prompted Russia to slow its offensive in Donetsk, as hoped, although some Russian forces have been diverted to Kursk’s defence. And it has reduced the resources available for the defence of Pokrovsk”
“On the face of things, most Ukrainians are equally confident and combative. Almost three-quarters tell pollsters that military victory remains possible. Only 9% say they would accept an end to the fighting that simply cements the current front lines without any other concessions.But these figures disguise a growing generational rift. Those older than 60, who do not risk being drafted, are much more gung-ho about the war than the young: 54% of them believe that Ukraine is winning, compared to 31% of those between 18 and 25. By the same token, 60% of the elderly say Ukraine must continue fighting until all its territory is liberated, compared to only 40% of 18- to 25-year-olds. What is more, the number of Ukrainians who say they would be willing to cede territory to Russia under certain conditions has been rising steadily. The share willing to accept the current front lines rises to 38% if Ukraine were admitted to the European Union and given funds for reconstruction. If Ukraine were admitted to nato as well, 47% would be willing to accept the current front lines. And fully 57% would be ready to make peace if Ukraine regained control of the occupied parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, while ceding control over Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.”
The chances of current front lines plus Ukraine in NATO must be very near zero.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 14 2024 10:41 utc | 124

@ YetAnotherAnon | Oct 14 2024 10:44 utc | 125
Artillery crews, snipers and now drone operators are in the same boat, yes. Donbas militias in particular have been keeping a score on those particular crews killing civilians. Still, majority survive the capture. Regular prisoner exchanges keep things from turning barbaric, even on some the AFU side.

Posted by: boneless | Oct 14 2024 10:55 utc | 126

Inevitably soonish …
Posted by: too scents | Oct 14 2024 9:17 utc | 118
I don’t want to get too far off the point, which is the often voiced belief that limits to Ukrainian mobilisation capacity will lead to a near term Ukrainian military collapse, and onto nebulous economic arguments that are broadly relevant but almost certainly not near term as far Ukraine’s ability to provide warm bodies if the U.S. continues to demand it.
You won’t find anyone even half credible in the entire Russian sphere who claims that mobilisation is a near term limit to continued Ukrainian military action. Everyone’s learned their lesson multiple times over from the same arguments sounding plausible in the past, anyone who now covers the subject is cautionary, I’ve cross-posted plenty of remarks to that effect. There’s no certainty either way but these claims of near term mobilisation failure are foolish on both historical and actuarial grounds.
Rybar and Two Majors, read via Chrome machine translation, are a minimum inoculation against wishful narrative elements that are specific to the slightly odd parallel universe of the pro-RF anglophone sphere.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 11:16 utc | 128

There’s no certainty either way but these claims of near term mobilisation failure are foolish on both historical and actuarial grounds.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 11:16 utc | 128
—
The eventual forced expulsion of Ukrainian refugees into conscription will scar Europe, move the conflict further West and create deeper demands for resolution.
The war is lost but it can still be loster.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 14 2024 11:35 utc | 130

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/#post-colonelcassad-9437880
“They arrived and resolved not to leave Kursk Oblast”. Photos of a uniform with a Union Jack patch, a destroyed vehicle and several corpses.

Posted by: Waldorf | Oct 14 2024 11:52 utc | 132

[…]
The ‘Chelyabinsk of the Future’ Telegram channel reports that since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
[…]
Source : https://t.me/ChelFuture/7361
Posted by: Chris O | Oct 13 2024 22:56 utc | 82

Darn it, they left the “full-scale invasion” tell-tale in there …

Posted by: pessoa | Oct 14 2024 12:46 utc | 134

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 11:16 utc | 128
I don’t doubt that Zelensky can keep scraping together bodies to go to the front. The question is, how effective will these “meat” replacements be?
We’re already seeing the signs of poor morale and lack of basic soldiering skills in Kursk. It sounds like the best troops ske-daddled outta there to help in other areas, like Pokrovsk and Selidovo. A reasonable move, as the Kursk gambit clearly failed and all that remains is to clear it and take equipment from NATO back to Moscow for trophies.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 14 2024 13:06 utc | 136

Tangentially related – are the current Chinese exercises around Taiwan
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/14/china-military-taiwan-drills-president-lai-national-day-speech
designed to see what the US will move given that they are currently involved with Ukraine and Israel and must be somewhat stretched?
If the US was heavily involved attacking Iran, a move on Taiwan might make sense. But time is on China’s side, every year they get stronger and then West weaker.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 14 2024 13:25 utc | 138

“Closer to the front” and in violation of international law: New NATO headquarters in Rostock
October 14, 2024 1:49 p.m.
Command Task Force Baltic is the name of NATO’s new headquarters in Europe, which the alliance plans to open in Rostock in October. The reason given – who would have thought it – is fear of Russia.
“Closer to the front” and in violation of international law: New NATO headquarters in RostockSource: http://www.globallookpress.com © Bernd Wüstneck/dpa
.
Rostock is to become the seat of a new NATO headquarters. The Command Task Force Baltic is to be attached to the German Navy’s operations and command center there. All operations in and over the Baltic Sea are to be controlled from there in the future, writes the Ostsee-Zeitung:
“For this purpose, soldiers from all neighboring countries will be transferred to the Warnow.”
If true, the point about soldiers from the neighboring states violates both the Two Plus Four Treaty and the Unification Treaty.
The latter is against the Two Plus Four Treaty insofar as the Two Plus Four Treaty is a mandatory prerequisite for the Unification Treaty. The Two Plus Four Treaty expressly prohibits the relocation of foreign troops to the territory of the former GDR and their stationing there. According to experts, even the transfer of foreign troops through East German territory violates this.
Analysis
Baltic Sea blockade against Russia: Self-destructive boldness bordering on the absurd
The reason given for setting up the new headquarters is Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and Russia’s allegedly increasingly aggressive behavior towards the NATO states on the Baltic Sea. In reality, however, it was the states themselves whose political and military establishment has repeatedly come forward in the recent past with proposals for a military blockade of Russian Baltic Sea ports.
A NATO base, which is currently being built on the grounds of the Warnowwerft naval arsenal in Warnemünde, could potentially serve such purposes: This logistical hub is intended to enable soldiers and military supplies to be moved quickly at any time – to Scandinavia, but also to the entire Baltic region, writes the Ostsee-Zeitung.
The fact that THE WEST, ahead of all Berlin as a slave of the USA, is trampling on the 2 + 4 Treaty shows once again what contracts with the West are worth when the disadvantaged contracting partner puts up with everything.

Posted by: ossi | Oct 14 2024 13:50 utc | 140

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 13 2024 21:38 utc | 69
I can’t agree. Allowing for the inevitable accidents and mistakes of war, I don’t see how else the Russians could have tackled this conflict. Failing a settlement is had to be attrition. All the way from almost the very beginning of the SMO. Still is. Their goal after the lightning strike at the very beginning – a strike that we in the West simply failed to notice, would you believe! – was to attrite the equipment and men we were able to throw at them.
They’re still doing that, by the way. Apart from Prighozin’s efforts, and those were very much a one-off, they’ve been husbanding their own forces and using their missile strikes and artillery to crumble ours.
It’s not been a walkover. The Ukrainian regulars are the best NATO has at its disposal, as said before. The Russians have taken casualties that I at least regard as heavy. But it’s been a cross between a slaughter fest and a demolition Derby for our side and will continue to be so as this war draws to its final stages. The obsessive in the West, and many in Russia too, who eagerly scour the mapping sites and say “Oh look. We’ve won a kilometre of territory here or lost it here” are missing the point entirely.
Ugly affair. We had no business putting the Ukrainians through it. I think we have lost the PR war as well. The horrors of Gaza have put the final touches to the destruction of our credibility in the eyes of the greater world outside the West. The loss of the sanctions war will damage the US and severely damage the already tottering European economies. We shall see a further flow of Ukrainian refugees into Europe, many of them ultra-nationalists who will, as in Canada, alter European political dynamics. And as Borrell said, we are shutting ourselves out from the wider global market whilst having lost the competitive edge that access to cheap fuel and raw materials gave us.
The point to be made, however, is that in examining this disaster we may not ignore reality. We may not attempt to alter the military reality to accord with our own views.
It’s not easy to set aside one’s own views on who is in the right in this war. I view it mainly from the point of view of those living in the Donbass after 2014. So I’m as irretrievably partisan as anyone else. Merely the mention of the Madonna of Gorlovka, or of the dogged resistance that makeshift collection of federalists put up in the early days, tells you exactly where I’m coming from. So when I see a video like this it rings true:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4QVsQ72kOg&t=1126s&ab_channel=EdMays
– and when I read or see accounts like this I believe them:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&ab_channel=vanessabeeley
Others will regard such material as skilful propaganda and will come to this war from a quite different point of view. That the Russians mounted an unprovoked attack on a smaller country for the purpose of territorial expansion. Or that this war is merely the start of a Russian drive to dominate Europe.
So we all have those different views on who is in the right. But in examining the war itself, we have to set aside those views. My country didn’t win in the Falklands because we were in the right. It won because we defeated the troops the Argentinians put on the islands whether we were in the right or not. We could have lost, you know, and if we had that wouldn’t have been a verdict on the moral case for resisting the invasion. It would simply have been a verdict that we had insufficient military strength or had used it unskilfully.
At quite the other end of the scale, the Russians didn’t win in WWII because of the justice of their cause. They won because they had the stronger and better generalled army. In both cases, the justice of the cause is irrelevant except in so far as the various soldiers involved needed to believe they were in the right to keep morale up. But since in all wars the soldiers on either side believe they’re in the right we can ignore that factor altogether and focus cold-bloodedly solely on the mechanics of the war.
So we must do here. Never mind our various views – or prejudices if we so choose to term them! – in favour of one side or the other. God is on the side of the big battalions, if they’re used right, and our views on whose side He ought to be on are irrelevant.
Taking that approach in examining this war it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that in this case the Russians have the big battalions and have been using them right. As Obama said way back, in this theatre they have “escalatory dominance”. As Trukhan pointed out recently, they knew how to use it. Whether they were in the right or not, and in spite of the fact that the majority of us in the West believe they weren’t, that’s how they won. That’s the military reality we have been ignoring for far too long and if we continue to ignore it, merely because we don’t happen to like it, we’re going to get ourselves more problems.
You can lose a war. We have. Pretending otherwise doesn’t work.

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 14 2024 13:57 utc | 142

I don’t doubt that Zelensky can keep scraping together bodies to go to the front. The question is, how effective will these “meat” replacements be? …
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 14 2024 13:06 utc | 136
The quality and quantity of men and materiel available to AFU has deteriorated more or less consistently over time yet the UkroGolem continues to fight.
Depopulation appears to be a feature of U.S. strategy so the military effectiveness of freshly mobilised troops from this point on is neither here nor there, in all sympathy they’re already terrible, walking sandbags in many cases. For the mobilised, the Ukrainian side of the front is a death camp masquerading as a territorial defence.
Pulling better units out of Kursk makes sense because they can serve a backbone for tens of hundreds of times their own number in expendable mobiks down the line, collapse would be hastened by successfully wiping out experienced units that can hold the Ukrainian front together.
If a Ukrainian infantry collapse was imminent and U.S. planners wanted to buy time to prop up the Ukraine side they’d ramp up ballistic / cruise missile attacks to slow down Russian logistics. This issue of Ukraine supposedly approaching a mobilisation limit is not only bogus in isolation, it’s a factor that can be managed in other ways.
The discrepancy on this issue between the Russian language sphere and the parallel universe of anglophone simulacra is simply discrediting.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 14 2024 14:37 utc | 144

Maybe part of the Russian strategy is patience based on the assumption (a correct one) that the U.S. will abandon Ukraine.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 14 2024 1:25 utc | 102
I liken it more to jui-juitsu. Western military are strikers … they like to throw kicks and punches with every combination comes the hope of spectacular Ko’s. Russians are grapplers who go to the mat and let their opponent struggle to exhaustion.
That being said it doesn’t mean that the Russians can’t hurt you with a punch … just that grappling is the chosen strategy for this enemy at this point in time.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 14 2024 15:01 utc | 146

Anyone have a view on the theory that Putin drops a tactical nuke on his own territory? ie Kursk and wipes out the invading army?

Posted by: Mark T | Oct 14 2024 15:18 utc | 148

Anyone have a view on the theory that Putin drops a tactical nuke on his own territory? ie Kursk and wipes out the invading army?
Posted by: Mark T | Oct 14 2024 15:18 utc | 149

How big a nuke would you like to see used?
it is a sparsely populated region.
I expect the remaining UKR troops to be rather spread out.

Posted by: MAKK | Oct 14 2024 15:24 utc | 150

Now, Ukraine has punched a huge hole in the narrative of Russia’s “greatness.” Russia is poor, corrupt and authoritarian, and now we also know it is weak and pathetic. Russia’s “greatness” collapsed in an orgy of murder and rape inflicted by brutal occupiers in Ukraine. Stained by the blood of the innocent and defeated in fair combat, the bully was cut to size. It was about time. Thank you, Ukraine, for serving this bitter medicine. Russia needed it badly.
Russia needs a proper humiliation. It needs a humble acknowledgment of its diminished status, an acceptance of guilt, and a slow, painstaking effort to rebuild the trust of those he has harmed. Russia did not learn this lesson in the 1990s. It must learn it now.
True greatness is not in horrible military parades, nor in promises to unleash nuclear Armageddon. True greatness lies in acceptance of the past and the willingness to make amends. It is a commitment to building a better future, in a country that could become known for its schools and hospitals, not its tanks and missiles.
The true source of Russia’s humiliation has always been Russia itself: its arrogant, autocratic rulers and the chauvinistic population that slavishly worships them. Russia’s defeat in this unjust and criminal war against Ukraine could help change the domestic narrative in Russia to accept the country for what it truly is, rather than what it vainly pretended to be. Only then can Russia finally be at peace with itself and its neighbors.

Posted by: Alexandre M | Oct 14 2024 15:50 utc | 152

I imagine the comment at 15:50 utc on this thread will be a strong contender for canuck’s “Most Moronic Post of the Day” award.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 14 2024 15:55 utc | 154

Alexandre M | Oct 14 2024 15:50 utc | 155
@ Alexandre M
That is a, well, ‘interesting’ take on things.
So, just out of bored curiosity, what is your evaluation of the USA on the same points? How do they rate IYO?
(not sure if this falls under ‘feeding the troll’, but it should be good for a laugh if Alexandre M responds)

Posted by: saner | Oct 14 2024 16:25 utc | 156

“(not sure if this falls under ‘feeding the troll’, but it should be good for a laugh if Alexandre M responds)..”
Posted by: saner | Oct 14 2024 16:25 utc | 160
In my opinion, your gambit is not, ‘feeding the troll’; you are ‘baiting a troll.’
Just as a fisherman puts a worm on the line his purpose is not to feed the Fish but to catch them.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 14 2024 16:35 utc | 158

Anyone have a view on the theory that Putin drops a tactical nuke on his own territory? ie Kursk and wipes out the invading army?
Posted by: Mark T | Oct 14 2024 15:18 utc | 148
I vote this one for the “most moronic post today” award.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 14 2024 16:51 utc | 160

Marat rips into NATO: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/fat-and-stupid-why-nato-is-good-for
He puts some numbers behind something I’ve thought for some time, that NATO is bloated, flabby and too bureaucratically unwieldy to ever be anything more than a trough of corruption and pork-barrelling.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 14 2024 16:54 utc | 162

Anyone have a view on the theory that Putin drops a tactical nuke on his own territory? ie Kursk and wipes out the invading army?
Posted by: Mark T | Oct 14 2024 15:18 utc | 148
_______
Sounds like typical Western false flag propaganda. You *are* wearing your White Helmet, aren’t you?
How unfortunate today’s Most Idiotic Post was already identified. You could’ve won!

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 14 2024 17:30 utc | 164

Biden sent a THAAD missile defense system and 100 “boots on the ground” to Israel.
Why didn’t Zelensky get that? He got skunked.
What does that tell ya?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 14 2024 17:55 utc | 166

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 14 2024 17:55 utc | 166
they got alotta frenchies and corgies you know

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 14 2024 18:18 utc | 168

I tell a lie, it’s the Ukraine border there…

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 14 2024 18:50 utc | 170

RAF tanker over Jordan, from Akrotiri in Cyprus.
https://www.flightradar24.com/VADER49/378b1dfa
Someone’s definitely playing sillies with Flightradar. It was at 29,000 feet doing 53 mph, which wouldn’t keep it in the air.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 14 2024 20:16 utc | 172

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 14 2024 17:38 utc | 165
There’s also another possibility, that the number of Ukrainians mobilised, in total, has been under-counted. Don’t forget also the only way Ukraine could mount a small Kampfgruppe sized offensive, was to strip the front, suggesting serious manpower shortages. Ukrainians also talk about 80% casualties in a week, suffered by some front line units, so you could extrapolate that data point, if you were minded to do so.
I agree, though it’s only after the last piece of rubble has been bounced and flesh shredded, will the true nature of the conflict possibly be known (depends on how accurate the records are). Final point, casualty figures are often seen as crude markers as to who fought more effectively (certainly the losing side tries to make this argument, if capable), but, put crudely, in the end it’s not the relative number of bodies in the ground, but whose flag is flying over whose capital that counts.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 14 2024 20:37 utc | 174

According to RU MoD total losses for UA is 830k, i.e. irretrievable (dead and severely wounded) + sanitary losses (lightly wounded).
Putin said in an interview irretrievable/sanitary is 50/50. That means dead and seriously wounded for UA is 415k. He also said Russian irretrievable losses are 1/5 of Ukraine’s, citing similar ratio for POWs. That would mean RU irretrievable is 83k.
Keep in mind two things though: These are only losses verified by “objective control”. They do NOT include UA losses in operational rear. Some people (I think Martyanov) has suggested a multiplicator of 1.5-2 for rear losses. So total kill ratio could very well be 6-7 to 1 or so (which recently Russian reserve colonel Oleg Shalandin suggested after visiting SMO zone). We also do not know the percentage of KIA in irretrievable losses for UA and RU. For example if KIA/severely wounded is 50:50 then UA KIA is 200k. This however seems too few, mainly because space photos of graveyards, oblast census and obituaries generally suggests 300-500k KIA.
If I had to guess, while very speculative, I think UA KIA is around 400-500k and RU 70-80k.

Posted by: CL | Oct 14 2024 22:24 utc | 176

This post from the ZeRada channel points to an active effort (by US/NATO) to win the German popular support for a hot war against Russia. Does that kind of propaganda have any effect on the average German?

🇩🇪🔥🇷🇺 The Ukrainian way of Germany
We are closely watching how Germany, the locomotive of the European Union, against the backdrop of the collapse of its economy, is sliding into a state of stupefaction and intimidation of its population with a possible future war.
Information pumping is going on in all directions. Thus today at an open hearing of the heads of intelligence services in the Parliamentary Control Committee of the Bundestag, the head of the Federal Intelligence and Counterintelligence Agency of Germany (BND) Bruno Kahl made a number of resonant statements:
⁃ “There is a specific military threat from Russia”;
⁃ “No later than the end of this decade, Russian armed forces may be able to carry out a direct attack on NATO”;
⁃ “The Kremlin views Germany as an adversary, especially because Germany actively supports Ukraine”;
⁃ “We are in direct confrontation with Russia. In reality, Putin does not need Ukraine. In reality, he is striving to create a new world order”;
⁃ Russian special services are working at full capacity and “without any restrictions.” So further escalation is entirely possible.
The head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Thomas Haldenwang, emphasized the strengthening of Russia’s hybrid and covert operations: “We are registering aggressive actions by Russian special services. Cases of espionage and sabotage from Russia have become especially frequent and their quality has increased.”
The President of the Military Intelligence Agency, Martina Rosenberg, reported on attempts by Russian intelligence services to spy against the Bundeswehr. Intelligence activities are carried out in the area of ​​arms supplies to Ukraine, in places where soldiers are trained, or in the area of ​​defense projects. Espionage is also used to carry out sabotage aimed at creating a sense of insecurity among the population.
The same thing has been happening in Ukraine since 2014: industry and economics were replaced by Russophobia and militarization of the agenda. Instead of solving economic problems, the authorities accused the opposition of working for the Kremlin and shouted about the “Shatun” plans.
Globally, after pitting Russia and Ukraine against each other, it would be better for the US to pit Russia and Germany against each other, which we constantly write about …
“>https://t.me/ZeRada1/21904

Posted by: Richard L | Oct 14 2024 23:27 utc | 178

@CL | Mon, 14 Oct 2024 22:24:00 GMT | 176

If I had to guess, while very speculative, I think UA KIA is around 400-500k and RU 70-80k.

Those ratios may be off. Only a few modern wars in history have had kill ratios that lopsided – the 1991 Gulf War (probably), and most of the Arab-Israel wars: Suez, the Six Day War, and the Yom Kippur war. Possibly the Winter War as well. All those wars were over in months, if not weeks.
Also, Russia isn’t known historically for its casualty aversion in war. Those ratios would mark a stark change in the way Russia has waged war over the past two hundred years. It’s possible I suppose. If those ratios are accurate then Ukraine will run out of manpower probably very soon.

Posted by: James M. | Oct 14 2024 23:32 utc | 180

In one study I read analyzing 605 battles going back to 1600, the attacker only won fourteen percent of the time with a force ratio of less than 1:1.

Is this satire?
Yes let me comment on how the siege of Riga or the battle on the Plains of Abraham was relevant to satellite enabled networked warfare in all domains, ballistic cruise missiles, drones, etc. While studying history is of course instructive, it’s ridiculous to try to extrapolate conclusions concerning casualty rates based on such readings over 4 centuries. Or for that matter, force composition and relative balance required to overcome static defenses given those static defenses themselves have changed a lot, as have the ways to combat defensive positions. War has changed a wee bit since then, regardless of what the Fallout voiceover says.
Without offering significant argument as I cannot be bothered, let me humbly submit that the war has been far, far more costly for the West…not in terms of casulaties..though who knows.. but in everything else, including reputational damage. The US dollar will fall. Seems a pretty big fuck up, but what do I know, I just drink here.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 15 2024 0:56 utc | 182

snake | Oct 13 2024 21:07 utc | 62
*** It is for this reason that a global 2nd government is needed to keep in check those who govern in each of the 256 or so nation states; because it is these governments that control the populations of the world.***
Since these very same Oligarchs, bureaucrats and utterly corrupt governments (facilitated by big business and mass-media) just happen to monitor and control damn-near everything inside and outside countries, plus of course their military forces and financial systems — just who exactly is going to actually design and implement the allegedly wonderful one-world hyper dictatorship you keep on advocating?

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 15 2024 1:52 utc | 184

anonposter | Oct 14 2024 5:02 utc | 108…
A very major objective of the war ought to be to *kill* all the Oligarchs, plus their families and associates — rather than preserve them.*
NATO didn’t totally inflict the … problems … by itself, from outside.
* Unless a “new Khazaria” is the desired outcome.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 15 2024 2:05 utc | 186

@CL | Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:57:00 GMT | 183

That has more to do with the “operational capacity of the theater”, rather than lack of manpower. There are simply limits of how many troops you can put on a modern battlefield. There is a optimal number based on area of effect of weaponry, highway throughput, bridges weight limits and so on.

Well presumably if the kill ratios are what you think they are:

If I had to guess, while very speculative, I think UA KIA is around 400-500k and RU 70-80k.

Then Russia would have more room for maneuverability and the RuAF wouldn’t have to worry so much about where to place their troops. That’s my point anyway, that the kill ratios are much lower than you suspect.

Posted by: James M. | Oct 15 2024 2:56 utc | 188

Poland rejects EU policy.

Donald Tusk rekindles EU migration debate
Polish premier joins anti-immigrant leaders with shock move of suspending asylum rights
Donald Tusk has thrown European migration policy into turmoil with a surprise decision to suspend the right to asylum in Poland, days ahead of an EU leaders’ summit where the issue is set to dominate.
The Polish prime minister was the latest EU leader to announce unilateral curbs on migration, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month introduced checks at all German border controls in a move France has since said it wants to replicate. Warsaw’s decision risks further damaging a fragile consensus on migration and asylum policy among the bloc’s 27 member states which is already being challenged by resurgent far-right parties across the continent.
On Monday evening, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote to EU leaders laying out what she said were “European solutions for a European challenge” of tackling increased irregular migration.
Tusk, who served as European Council president before returning to power in Poland, said over the weekend that Warsaw would temporarily put on hold the right to seek asylum for people crossing the border from Belarus. He argued that the measure was aimed at stopping Minsk and its ally Russia attempting to destabilise Poland.
“Our right and our duty is to protect the Polish and European border,” Tusk said on social media platform X on Monday. “Its security will not be subject to negotiation — with anyone.”
Italy’s rightwing premier, Giorgia Meloni, who has long opposed irregular migration into the bloc, invited a select group of like-minded leaders including Tusk and Scholz to hold a preparatory meeting in Brussels on Thursday ahead of the summit, according to three people familiar with the proposal. Their goal was to agree a joint position on a tougher approach to migration, the people said.
continues ==> https://www.ft.com/content/b59183cc-1d6e-4459-9910-31b536f1e208

Ursula’s problems continue to multiply. Let’s see if she uses the opportunity to increase her power.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 15 2024 7:49 utc | 190

Our source in the OP said that Western allies are already openly demanding that Zelensky begin negotiations with the Kremlin to stop the war along the front line.
The Pentagon has prepared a report for the Biden Administration, which clearly indicates the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the current rate of the Russian army’s advance and predicts the collapse of the front in the winter of 2025.
According to the US military, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have no way to stop the advance of the Russian army in Donbas, and reserves will last for 7-9 months.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24625

Our source in the OP said that the West is deliberately holding up the already allocated financial aid, which amounts to $14 billion, of which $5.5 billion are grants. That is why Bankova is raising taxes in order to continue the war regardless of Western funding and not to comply with the demands of the allies to end the conflict along the contact line.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24627

The situation in Kursk Oblast is not just critical for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is close to collapse and the emergence of new cauldrons. The Russian army has cleared Lyubimovka and moved to our positions in the Olgovskiy forest.
The General Staff is transferring reserves, but they simply cannot reach the positions due to the muddy roads and the lack of tracked vehicles, which the enemy has in sufficient numbers. While propaganda is trying to convince the Ukrainians of a stable situation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units are being destroyed.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24626

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2024 7:56 utc | 192

Ugledar direction as of the morning of 15.10.24…
Stubborn fighting continues between Bogoyavlenka and Katerinovka. Yesterday, our units entered the territory of the latter and occupied the southeastern part of this settlement.
This was a consequence of the earlier destruction of a road bridge in the northwestern part of the village by a missile, which led to the cutting off of the local garrison’s communications. The enemy does not have the forces to counterattack here, and therefore the rest of the village. I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose very soon.
In this way, we will secure the flank of further attacks to the north between Bogoyavlenka and Yelizavetovka with access to the flank and rear of the former.
At the same time, our pressure on this enemy fortified area from the south (from the side of Ugledar) is increasing. The enemy here is also slowly but surely retreating.
In the area of ​​Zolotaya Niva, our units began moving west. Bypassing the enemy positions south of Velikaya Novosyolka.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18563

Selidovo-Kurakhovskoye direction as of the morning of 15.10.24…
Here, so far, everything is unchanged. Stubborn, but so far fruitless battles continue in Izmailovka and Novoselidovka.
And the main news comes from Selidovo. Everything indicates that a general assault on the city will soon begin. Firstly, our units have reached convenient positions from three sides before the assault and conducted reconnaissance in force everywhere.
Yesterday, all day long, our aviation was taking out the enemy’s identified firing points and the locations of his units (more than 50 KABs were dropped). Artillery and drones are working hard.
In short, soon… And everyone understands this.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18565

Pokrovsk-Selidovo direction on the morning of 15.10.24…
Here everything has “frozen” again. Our command has obviously refocused on Selidovo, and therefore south of Mirnograd there is still relative calm.
The only place where active actions are taking place is Lysovka. But there are no changes there yet.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18567

Toretskoye direction as of the morning of 15.10.24…
Here the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is becoming more and more complicated. Including in view of the fact that to the north, in the area of ​​Chasov Yar, our units have become more active and are drawing away the enemy’s reserves. Which are already small.
Here, for now, as yesterday, there is a relative operational pause.
What is noteworthy. And what once again proves how much the Ukrainian near-war info dumps are lying to their followers. Yesterday, one of the info dump channels bragged about a successful counterattack in the Zabalka microdistrict. They say they recaptured some position there and took someone prisoner. But if you look at the map of the operational situation (screenshot 2), which the Ukrainian info dumps feed their readers, this cannot be in principle, since according to their “version”, this entire microdistrict has always been under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Draw your own conclusions.
Meanwhile, as I wrote above, there is a relative operational pause in the area (between large assaults), during which our units are still trying to improve their positions.
We are currently working most actively in the Leonidovka-Shcherbinovka area, which obviously suggests that the next assault target will be the area of ​​the Tsentralnaya mine waste heaps, after the loss of which it will no longer make sense for the enemy to hold on in the city.
We are keeping our fingers crossed and praying for the guys.

https://t.me/yurasumy/18568

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2024 8:01 utc | 194

From Zero Hedge this morning; note their scepticism about “Ukrainian military blogger” DeepState:

Ukraine Finally Admits To Russian Breakthrough In Kursk As They Evacuate Sumy
For those tracking war maps from both sides of the conflict as well as geo-location data for troop positions, the failure of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk is not a surprise. The movement of their forces stalled out only a couple weeks after their initial push into the territory and the Russians have been grabbing back pieces of land ever since. However, for those people only listening to establishment news sources, the retaking of Kursk might come as a shock.
Russian troops have made significant advances from the western flank of Ukrainian positions, and reports indicate a threat of Ukrainian troops being encircled.
The Telegraph, usually a platform for pro-Ukraine propaganda, notes that sources from both sides confirmed the Russian breakthrough, which occurred during the heaviest fighting on Russian territory since Ukraine began its cross-border incursion in August.
DeepState, a Ukrainian military blogger, said that there was a risk that Russian forces could encircle Ukrainian forces, although they later said that the front lines in Kursk were “difficult but under control”. “The enemy pushed through the left flank of the Kursk grouping of Ukrainian defense forces,” the blogger said. “We are on the verge of another mess due to the repetition of mistakes.” (Keep in mind, major military “bloggers” in this conflict tend to have connections to government and military officials who give them battlefront information)
It should be noted that DeepState has avoided changing his war maps to reveal significant Russian gains in Kursk for many weeks. It is likely that he has been dissuaded from doing so by officials in Kyiv in order to present a facade of success in Kursk. The fact that he is admitting to those gains now suggests the situation is dire for Ukraine.
Russian military bloggers said that marines from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Brigade had been involved in fighting around the Glushkovsky district of Kursk, where most Ukrainian forces had allegedly been overrun.
Fears of potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk come only days after US officials claimed they could hold the ground for months.
The strategic sense behind Ukraine’s Kursk operation remains a mystery. Vladimir Zelensky claims the attack was designed to draw Russian troops away from the eastern front in order to slow down their non-stop bulldozing of Ukraine’s defensive positions. Many of these towns and the defensive works around them have been held since 2014. In other words, the fact that Russia is taking these positions so quickly indicates that something has gone very wrong for Ukraine (And we all know what the problem is – lack of manpower).
As with all war, the losing side tends to implode all at once after a long period of seemingly static and secure defenses.
If the goal was really to divert the Russians away from the east, then the Kursk offensive achieved nothing. The Kremlin actually increased their forces and attacks in the region after the Kursk event. John Foreman, a former British military attaché in both Moscow and Kyiv, states:
“Russian progress actually picked up after Kursk…Politically, the Kursk offensive didn’t change much in Washington DC or Europe. I’m still unconvinced of its strategic merit.”
Kyiv’s recent declaration of a mandatory evacuation of more than 37,000 civilians from the Sumy Oblast region just across the border from Kursk provides more evidence that the area is about to be retaken by Russia. It seems like the Kursk incursion was fuel for the western media hype machine, but other than that the effort served no strategic purpose.

A direct link filters the post out, but it is up on their front page at the moment.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 15 2024 8:26 utc | 196

In the Kursk direction, fighting continues along the entire contact line.
In the area of ​​the Ukrainian breakthrough towards Glushkovo, the Russian Armed Forces have effectively driven out the Ukrainian Armed Forces and fighting is taking place in the Novy Put area.
Clashes continue in the Lyubimovka area, where the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison are effectively surrounded, but there is no attempt to counterattack from the area of ​​neighboring Tolsty Lug.
At the same time, Tolsty Lug itself is in the “gray zone”, and Ukrainian units have little chance of breaking out of the effectively formed cauldron there. At the same time, to the east, Russian troops are advancing towards Novoivanovka, and now only the eastern outskirts of the settlement remain under the control of Ukrainian units. The Russian Army has approached Leonidovka here.
Now the main fighting is moving to the Novoivanovka – Malaya Loknya line. In Malaya Loknya, the Ukrainian garrison is firmly holding its positions. But in Novoivanivka the situation for Ukrainian units is difficult (almost forced out) and the next line of defense here will be Leonidovka. In case of success here on the part of Russian troops, the Ukrainian group to the north will be trapped. A breakthrough in Leonidovka will give the Russian Armed Forces the opportunity to reach the flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Malaya Loknya. The Ukrainian command, perfectly understanding the situation, is constantly transferring reserves here.
At the same time, weather conditions are increasingly making their own “adjustments” to the course of the battles. Rains and fogs often prevent drones from working, and therefore this does not allow normal supply of groups due to the spreading roads. Which does not play into the hands of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region in the long term. At the same time, this gives the opportunity for the advanced strongholds to rotate and organize their supplies from the nearest settlements (however, the supplies here are short-lived). In addition, due to the muddy roads, the disruption of communication creates the danger of not one cauldron, but several.
Further north along the route to Korenevo (south of Olgovka and Kremyana), the situation is not entirely clear due to the absence of settlements there and unfavorable weather conditions; clashes here are minimal for now. However, part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group may be cut off from the main part (in the area between Kremyana and the small Olgovsky forest) when weather conditions improve somewhat.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21219

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2024 8:47 utc | 198

It’s evident that you allow bots like “Vargas”, and honeypots like (i know you jack) and spelling the beans, and trolls and shills.
Posted by: Luis | Oct 15 2024 10:31 utc | 202
Well, I just have a bit zen-style, reduced style of writing.
But I am not a bot.
I would be first to know that.

Posted by: vargas | Oct 15 2024 10:49 utc | 200