News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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October 6, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-237
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Comments
Question: Are there any more fortified cities and towns west of Uglidar which could stall a Russian “Big Arrow” drive? Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 6 2024 14:44 utc | 1
Answer: Fortified cities are not needed to make it impossible to go a “Big Arrow” if Russian political leadership continues to refuse to allocate enough manpower and to isolate the battlefield. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2 It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness , dispirited troops, not enough munitions, artillery, soldiers, bad shape economically, corrupt government, you would think the big collapse would be underway. Perhaps the front is too long for Russia to bring enough pressure with the troops they have. Is it the drones, which Ukraine still seems to have plenty of? Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3 you would think the big collapse would be underway. Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 15:04 utc | 4 Ignoring rumors from afar, how are things in your local community? Posted by: Tim | Oct 6 2024 15:12 utc | 5 It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness *** you would think the big collapse would be underway. *** Posted by: frithguild | Oct 6 2024 15:31 utc | 6 Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2 Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:37 utc | 7 This is from a cold war Red Army field manual circa 1960 or so. I was looking for a reference on how they conducted encirclement battles when I came upon the “Four laws of War” Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:39 utc | 8 Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:37 utc | 7 Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2024 15:48 utc | 9 Any Russian speakers care to translate this video please? Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 15:57 utc | 10 It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness *** you would think the big collapse would be underway. *** Posted by: Honzo | Oct 6 2024 15:58 utc | 11 It appears that we are ‘memory-holing’ Ukraine before the election. Even on MOA, the majority of interest is focused on the Israeli war. Ukraine has been accepted as ‘over.’ They lost, Putin won. Forget about all that. So what if a million or more Slavs died and huge cities and tiny villages were reduced to rubble. The remaining population will lack sufficient (or any?) electricity, heat, clean water, sanitary services, phone service(?), food, … during the rapidly approaching winter. Winter in Ukraine, even if relatively mild, will resemble winters in the northernmost parts of the US. You don’t even want to think about all that stuff. Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12 Ukraine Weekly Update, 4th October 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-6ff Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 6 2024 16:08 utc | 13 Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12 Posted by: Samu | Oct 6 2024 16:23 utc | 14 you would think the big collapse would be underway. Perhaps the front is too long for Russia to bring enough pressure with the troops they have. Is it the drones, which Ukraine still seems to have plenty of? Posted by: Mary | Oct 6 2024 16:40 utc | 15 Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3 Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 16:55 utc | 16 Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 15:57 utc | 10 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 17 @Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2024 15:48 utc | 9 Posted by: AI | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 18 Posted by: Mary | Oct 6 2024 16:40 utc | 15 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:03 utc | 19 Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2 Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 17:07 utc | 20 Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3 Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Oct 6 2024 17:10 utc | 21 And in Odessa: Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Oct 6 2024 17:14 utc | 22 Look at the shit show in Kursk. Are there Ukrainian fortifications there? No. Yet they still have not been flushed out now going into a third month… Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 6 2024 17:15 utc | 23 @Larsbo 20 Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 17:27 utc | 25 “WEST” Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 17:28 utc | 26 Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:30 utc | 27 Regarding the slow rate of Ukrainian collapse, a lot of things are like that. Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28 @ Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28 Posted by: AI | Oct 6 2024 17:42 utc | 29 Some supply contracts for very critical raw materials, which the Russian Federation is dutifully fulfilling despite the sanctions, are expiring at the end of the year…Who should manage the new contracts on the part of the EU and the individual states??? Hard to imagine what that could even look like… Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 17:49 utc | 30 Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28
Yes. The minimization of Russian casualties is the main thing. Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2024 17:50 utc | 31 Why would the RF want to crush the Kursk pocket now? Posted by: Tobias Cole | Oct 6 2024 17:51 utc | 32 I recall back in early 2023 Gerasimov (either him or Shoigu) said they expected to reach their objectives by the end of 2024 barring unforseen support by NATO. I recall that they accounted for NATO support in their estimate. In other words not only Ukraine will be defeated but NATO will be out of arms to give them as well. Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:02 utc | 33 Russia’s objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state. Posted by: Jacob | Oct 6 2024 18:05 utc | 34 All those folks “bigging up” NATO capabilities don’t understand quite how broken the NATO supply chains are. A small but ongoing example is a shortage of camouflage paint for the British Army, stemming from production difficulties in the German chemical industry, in turn related to the steep rise in energy costs. Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:21 utc | 35 Russia’s objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state. Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:27 utc | 36 How do you make a country that hates you “neutral”? Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 18:34 utc | 37 All those folks “bigging up” NATO capabilities don’t understand quite how broken the NATO supply chains are. A small but ongoing example is a shortage of camouflage paint for the British Army, stemming from production difficulties in the German chemical industry, in turn related to the steep rise in energy costs. Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38 Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 18:34 utc | 37 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:38 utc | 39 Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38
Are the replacements on a one-to-one basis? If not, then attrition is inevitable.
Neither are they transport corridors. It‘s all very well having the intel/reconnaissance, having the kit to act upon it is entirely a different matter.
True enough for citizens in those areas Russia controls; can’t say the same for the population still living under the corrupt Kiev junta. Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:49 utc | 40 Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Oct 6 2024 18:51 utc | 41 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:54 utc | 41
Ah, yes, the “minimizing casualties” canard again. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 18:55 utc | 42 Some very stupid people still do not undestand that there are no more oligarchs in Russia. Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 43
Well, yeah, but then what was the point of spending more than a billion dollars on destroying power plants (that you will then have to spend further billions on rebuilding) if there was never any real intention of pushing the grid over the edge, which would be the only thing that would make a difference with respect to the conduct of the war. As it is, thousands of cruise missiles were spent on hitting such targets with absolutely no effect on the war aside from the attrition of Ukrainian air defense. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 44 ” Because the interests of the following groups: Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:04 utc | 45 Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 18:55 utc | 43 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:05 utc | 46
Then why did Putin have to on the day the war started apologetically explain himself to the board of directors of RF LLC and reassure them that nothing will fundamentally change in the relationship with the West if those people don’t matter at all and they have no corrosive influence on the conduct of the war through their relationship with the West? Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:05 utc | 47 Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12 Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 6 2024 19:07 utc | 48 Also, why did you choose “1917” as your handle? Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 6 2024 19:08 utc | 49 ” Russia’s objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state. Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:08 utc | 50 was there ever any doubt about Ukraine’s fate? Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine Posted by: ld | Oct 6 2024 19:12 utc | 51 And a litle something for the Kernel Comedian, who has also graced us with an appearance from on high:
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:12 utc | 52 ” You could make up your own translation and then tell the bar what it believes. No need for the drama of pretend integrity. Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 53 Some very stupid people still think that nothing changed in the relationships between Russia and the west. Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 54 Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:18 utc | 55 Imagine an alternate universe where the Russian Federation was in a non-nuclear armed conflict with NATO forces, and you were the head of American and all NATO forces. Suppose then that the RF landed tens of thousands of infantry along with artillery, armored vehicles, and everything else, into a remote part of Alaska, capturing small settlements and overrunning local forces. Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 19:22 utc | 56 Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 55 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:25 utc | 57 That “1917” person reminds me of someone who used to be a plague in here. Posted by: Avtonom | Oct 6 2024 19:27 utc | 58 Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2 Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 59 The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be deemed as done. Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 60 Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 6 2024 16:08 utc | 13 Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 61 На международном уровне такие разумные государства как Китай, Индия или даже Венгрия, одобрят это. И это будет самым эффективным оружием против украинского режима и западных военных подстрекателей. Ведь одно они точно не переживут – конец войны и последующий вопрос, зачем всё это было нужно. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:34 utc | 62 There have been quite a few new monikers on MoA recently, rather consistently presenting cherry-picked concern-trolling contained in a ‘pro-Russia/pro-Palestine’ posture. I think it unlikely that these are bearing much fruit in this particular venue, rather, I think that MoA has become a test-bed, a Spanish Civil War, for trying out new narratives to be refined before they are deployed in more important theaters of operation. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:39 utc | 63 Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:34 utc | 63 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:40 utc | 64 Dima says that Western countries are going to lift any remaining restriction on long range weapons. Posted by: vargas | Oct 6 2024 19:40 utc | 65 ” You could make up your own translation and then tell the bar what it believes. No need for the drama of pretend integrity. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:43 utc | 66
If that is Putin’s plan, he has to be dragged out of the Kremlin in chains, beheaded publicly in the middle of the Red Square for high treason for the whole world to see, for that is exactly what such a plan is, and be replaced by somebody who will defend Russia’s interests. Because Putin has mostly been betraying Russia’s interests for the last quarter of a century, and this would cross the last line.
It is in panick because after already getting nuked several times, it has to assume a lot of those are not conventional warheads. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:45 utc | 67 And BTW Russia is NOT going to let the civilians from Ukraine without energy or infrastructure this winter behind the front lines. They will not starve and will not freeze. They will have sanitation, hospitals and clean water to drink. Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 19:46 utc | 68 Simplicius has another article up, quoting defeated Ukie troops repeating suggestions for ‘negotiations.’ Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:46 utc | 69
The analogy breaks up completely because Kursk is not remote Alaska, it is right in the Russian core region, and as conveniently close to logistics as possible. Also, right at the front line of an active war for a third year now. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:48 utc | 70 The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be deemed as done. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:50 utc | 71 Kinda funny how Russian elites live in Northern America and Western Europe. Wouldn’t Moscow and Saint Petersburg be comfortable for them ? Posted by: Miserable Elf | Oct 6 2024 19:54 utc | 72
That is the only sector of the Ukrainian border that is being hit.
Have you seen Orlans flying along the Polish border and calling strikes on trains? No. They could have been, but they haven’t. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:55 utc | 73 Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:48 utc | 71 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:55 utc | 74 NOPE, it is not going to be finished that fast. Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 20:01 utc | 75
Best scenario right now is for the General Staff to take actual power and have Putin as a puppet to maintain appearances. The problem is there are powerful forces pushing in the other direction and it’s not clear they would be able to do it. Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 20:05 utc | 76 The whole not-war was started for the sole purpose of not having NATO nuclear missiles 300 miles away from Moscow. Not to save Russian people in Ukraine from genocide, nobody cared about that. And yet then NATO was allowed to station whatever it wanted 300 miles away from Moscow. In fact, right now they can drive a HIMARS TEL with ATACMS on it into Kursk and hit Moscow from inside Russian territory… Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:06 utc | 77 I already ran it through a translator, safe to say you aren’t missing anything; it’s doom porn straight out of the shadowbanned/1917/Ed4/Julian/Moonie troll cubicles. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 20:08 utc | 78 Russia’s aims cannot be realized until the Ukrainians military collapses. Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 20:08 utc | 79 Honzo | Oct 6 2024 15:58 utc | 11 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2024 20:10 utc | 80 why did you choose “1917” as your handle? Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 20:11 utc | 81 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:45 utc | 68 Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 6 2024 20:16 utc | 82 The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a Russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be considered as done. Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 20:23 utc | 83 it is right in the Russian core region, and as conveniently close to logistics as possible. Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 20:23 utc | 84 TASS today – Posted by: Elmagnosr | Oct 6 2024 20:24 utc | 85 https://johnhelmer.net/the-war-came-to-pokrovsk/#more-90387 Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 86 You forget what’s important in this world. Food, water and minerals are real things we need to survive … banks, stock markets and investment instruments are services that you only go to once your needs are met. BRICS countries supply our needs. Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 87 I didn’t know that it was possible to post outright lies here without being banned. Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 88 If the West escalates the proxy war, so too can the Russian Federation, no need for direct strikes in reprisal to Ukraine’s use of long range missiles. For the sake of American soldiers I hope that rung of the escalation ladder isn’t stepped on. Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 20:32 utc | 89 “The narrative from the West is that the French, Germans, and British expect to plan Ukraine’s future. Clueless. The future of Ukraine will 100% be decided by the Russians.” Posted by: Simon | Oct 6 2024 20:33 utc | 90 And now we have one more stupid guy dreaming that Russia is in panic. Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:37 utc | 91
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 88 Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 20:40 utc | 92 The situation for the ukronazis is really very, very bad considering the number of “comments” (aka lies) posted here by several agents provocateurs. Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:41 utc | 93 Iskander destroys container ship with Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition in Odessa region Posted by: guest | Oct 6 2024 20:47 utc | 94 Naive @ 94
Bet one could plot some sort of graph of MoA troll spikes to AFU fails and find a solid correlation. I know why they bother but I don’t know why so relentless except that relentlessness, the mindless type, is an imprinted nazi characteristic, like a very dumb dog that’ll chase a stick off a cliff. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 20:50 utc | 95 “was there ever any doubt about Ukraine’s fate? Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine” Posted by: Simon | Oct 6 2024 21:00 utc | 96 Naive @ 94
b seems a very late ’80s internet kind of guy, I don’t care much about the pre HTML aspect of this site but appointing a volunteer or two as moderators is necessary. If no wants to fine, but there does seem to be peeps up for it. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 21:18 utc | 97 @1917 68 Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 21:24 utc | 98 ^
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 21:26 utc | 99 @1917 68 Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 21:30 utc | 100 |
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