Ukraine Open Thread 2024-237
News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...
Posted by b on October 6, 2024 at 14:30 UTC | Permalink
next page »Question: Are there any more fortified cities and towns west of Uglidar which could stall a Russian "Big Arrow" drive?Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 6 2024 14:44 utc | 1
Answer: Fortified cities are not needed to make it impossible to go a "Big Arrow" if Russian political leadership continues to refuse to allocate enough manpower and to isolate the battlefield.
Look at the shit show in Kursk. Are there Ukrainian fortifications there? No. Yet they still have not been flushed out now going into a third month...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2
It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness , dispirited troops, not enough munitions, artillery, soldiers, bad shape economically, corrupt government, you would think the big collapse would be underway. Perhaps the front is too long for Russia to bring enough pressure with the troops they have. Is it the drones, which Ukraine still seems to have plenty of?
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
you would think the big collapse would be underway.
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
---
Ignoring rumors from afar, how are things in your local community?
Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 15:04 utc | 4
Ignoring rumors from afar, how are things in your local community?
Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 15:04 utc | 4
Nice answer!
Posted by: Tim | Oct 6 2024 15:12 utc | 5
It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness *** you would think the big collapse would be underway. ***
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
Power of a captured MSM to project a narrative and shape the political debate on display here.
Posted by: frithguild | Oct 6 2024 15:31 utc | 6
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2
Answer: Fortified cities are not needed to make it impossible to go a "Big Arrow" if Russian political leadership continues to refuse to allocate enough manpower and to isolate the battlefield.
What make you think the Russians have the trained formations to go "big arrow" even if they wanted to and if they did will the Russian people accept the kind of casualties such an operation with cause? Even if the Ukrainian army is broken NATO ISR isn't ... there is NO element of surprise in this war.
Look at the shit show in Kursk. Are there Ukrainian fortifications there? No. Yet they still have not been flushed out now going into a third month...
... and if they're still there in six months does that mean the Russian lost the war? How about a year? The kursk operation has the same chance of success as the Krinky operation. If the Russians said screw the cost and pushed the Ukrainians out of krinky they would have accomplished the same thing they did by simply waiting them out then taking back the settlement and the islands when the Ukrainians had enough and either died, starved or ran away.
The same thing is going to happen in Kursk. There's nowhere for them to go. The region is already evacuated. The Russians have defensive lines. They will either die, starve or run away just like at krinky and a minimum of trained Russian soldiers have to die.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:37 utc | 7
This is from a cold war Red Army field manual circa 1960 or so. I was looking for a reference on how they conducted encirclement battles when I came upon the "Four laws of War"
First Law: Be prepared. Prepare in peacetime for
the next war. Forces-in-being are the decisive factors.
The side with the most and best troops and equipment
at the start of war will win the war.
Second Law: The side which can best sustain a pro-
tracted war will win the war.
Third Law: The higher the political stakes of a war,
the longer and more violent it will be.
Fourth Law: War aims must be seen as just.
Modem war cannot be waged without public support.
You read these and look at what's happening on the ground and it pretty much sums up the behavior of both sides.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:39 utc | 8
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 15:37 utc | 7
Exactly. The NATO cucks are just wasting material and men in Kursk to no strategic or even tactical objectives.
Meanwhile, Russia can trade time for casualties. When winter sets in, another 15k dead UAF and foreign mercs will make the clearing operation easier.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2024 15:48 utc | 9
Any Russian speakers care to translate this video please?
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 15:57 utc | 10
It does puzzle me that with all the reporting of Ukrainian weakness *** you would think the big collapse would be underway. ***
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
Power of a captured MSM to project a narrative and shape the political debate on display here.
Posted by: frithguild | Oct 6 2024 15:31 utc | 6
I don't recall seeing Mbartv here before, so I suggest that what is on display here is probably the close cooperation between MSM and the Trolling Industrial Complex, which, after all, get their marching orders from the same source.
There have been quite a few new monikers on MoA recently, rather consistently presenting cherry-picked concern-trolling contained in a 'pro-Russia/pro-Palestine' posture. I think it unlikely that these are bearing much fruit in this particular venue, rather, I think that MoA has become a test-bed, a Spanish Civil War, for trying out new narratives to be refined before they are deployed in more important theaters of operation.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 6 2024 15:58 utc | 11
It appears that we are ‘memory-holing’ Ukraine before the election. Even on MOA, the majority of interest is focused on the Israeli war. Ukraine has been accepted as ‘over.’ They lost, Putin won. Forget about all that. So what if a million or more Slavs died and huge cities and tiny villages were reduced to rubble. The remaining population will lack sufficient (or any?) electricity, heat, clean water, sanitary services, phone service(?), food, … during the rapidly approaching winter. Winter in Ukraine, even if relatively mild, will resemble winters in the northernmost parts of the US. You don’t even want to think about all that stuff.
Look. Over there. In the Middle East. Pretty fireworks lighting city skylines. It needs an 1812 Overture soundtrack. Big numbers of casualties. Our government is sending weapons to help the good people there, no? Look. The tracks of the missiles look like laser swords. This is a better battle scene than in Star Wars. And look at the pretty stars, twinkling in the background, and more missiles, while huge fires devour parts of the ancient city, that stretches across the horizon. What a spectacular show!
/cynicism
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12
Ukraine Weekly Update, 4th October 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-6ff
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 6 2024 16:08 utc | 13
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12
Whoops not Sam, Samu.
Posted by: Samu | Oct 6 2024 16:23 utc | 14
you would think the big collapse would be underway. Perhaps the front is too long for Russia to bring enough pressure with the troops they have. Is it the drones, which Ukraine still seems to have plenty of?
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
The collapse has begun. Ukr's former pr guy (forget his name, moved to Uk) just said it will take 3-5 months to completely collapse.
Posted by: Mary | Oct 6 2024 16:40 utc | 15
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
I recall back in early 2023 Gerasimov (either him or Shoigu) said they expected to reach their objectives by the end of 2024 barring unforseen support by NATO. I recall that they accounted for NATO support in their estimate. In other words not only Ukraine will be defeated but NATO will be out of arms to give them as well.
So obviously Russia has a plan and a timetable ... they just don't give us many details for obvious reasons.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 16:55 utc | 16
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 15:57 utc | 10
######
You could make up your own translation and then tell the bar what it believes. No need for the drama of pretend integrity.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 17
@Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2024 15:48 utc | 9
>> The Ukrainian military has lost over 21,000 troops since its incursion in Russia’s borderline Kursk Region.
Posted by: AI | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 18
Posted by: Mary | Oct 6 2024 16:40 utc | 15
#######
Arestovich I believe.
He's a typically greasy Ukrainian but he is also a very discerning commentator who has no problem discussing the myriad flaws of his government, and the inevitable failure of NATO in Ukraine.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:03 utc | 19
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2
As many of my comments show, I am a staunch critic of the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine, but the economic news that is now increasingly coming in from Europe may put the whole strategy in a different light...It's not just Germany ! France, Italy, Austria, Netherlands, Scandinavia...The whirlpool that is dragging Europe downwards is gaining momentum dramatically...At this rate of downturn, there will be no more EU in 2030 - there cannot be! If that was the strategy that the Lomonosov computers spewed out in the run-up to the war, then that would be great cinema, because then Aladin would have been outplayed
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 17:07 utc | 20
Posted by: Mbartv | Oct 6 2024 15:00 utc | 3
Well, have a read of this. Things are starting to disintegrate.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 6 2024 17:10 utc | 21
Look at the shit show in Kursk. Are there Ukrainian fortifications there? No. Yet they still have not been flushed out now going into a third month...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2
How many of those in Kursk are still left, how many of those can inflict any significant damage on Russia, how many can still walk?
Also, why did you choose "1917" as your handle?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 6 2024 17:15 utc | 23
@Larsbo 20
That is exactly the plan of English parasites who can not compete with anyone on technology and engineering especially German engineering of car making so they have resorted to sabotage German industry through spying, sabotaging and Zionist pushed in sanctions for German war crimes!sabotage of gas pipe line was
English plan and Putin as a coward did nothing.?!
the real strategic 'war' isn't NATO vs. Russia, but UK vs. EU.
EU should have made a security and energy pact by accepting RF back in the 90's or at least when Putin put the house in order.
But that would not suit US/UK axis that wanted to pillage RF and neuter the EU.
Think of Russia to Germany gas pipe line which Was sabotaged to hurt not Russia only but Germany even more. Typical British plot and action.
Now there is one doubt that I have, do they want to bring the EU down to its knees or just assure that a unified vassal can be created in the next 15 years to go head on against the RF...
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 17:27 utc | 25
"WEST"
Mar 24
British racism even against the whites and Westerners of Europe.
"WEST"
Ever wondered what word "the west" really means? Or even what "white" means for the anglosaxons? It is not Mediterranean civilisation of greece, Italy,spain or even France. it is not north western european civilisation of germany or scandinavia. In fact all these countries have been spied upon by the nations who call and self designate themselves "the west" -a nation otherwise known as 5 Eyes !- A combination of england, usa,canada ,new zealand and australia- disparate nations geographically and not even european but esssentially anglosaxon race nations. A race based concept really.West is euphemism for anglos- it does not include any of other white european nations not even the msot westerly european nation of Ireland! The word "west" is a fraud to distract from real actors behind the scene-the 5 eyes. http://rt.com/news/china-nsa-e... April 21, 2011
“Those with a sense of irony may recall that Benjamin Franklin, one of the leading figures of the Enlightenment, warned that the newly liberated colonies should be wary of allowing Germans to immigrate, because they were too swarthy; Swedes as well. Into the twentieth century, ludicrous myths of Anglo-Saxon purity were common in the U.S., including among presidents and other leading figures.” Hence comes the myth of white-where white is a code word for English and English scumbag’s derived anglosaxon race who incidentally are much more swarthy than the Irish and Germans who were declared non-whites in usa according to their vocabulary. In other words anglosaxons though in minority have been able to get hold of power only by myth of white which is to pit one against another while they really mean it for the benefit of not all white races but anglosaxon race only.
Cecil von Renthe-Fink is a mere footnote in the pages of history. A Prussian aristocrat who joined the Nazi Party in 1939, Renthe-Fink however has a claim to fame. In August 1943, he drafted a memorandum proposing a European economic union with a common central bank and currency. But there was a caveat – if the new union was to be a success, Britain must be kept out because according to the German diplomat it was “the continent’s ancient enemy”. Today several nations, especially Russia, would agree with that assessment. With 66,000 of its nationals on the run from justice, and a large number of them having found asylum in Britain, Russia is the most affected by Britain’s policies.
Mar 24
nato and usa”.
As early as in 1949 the first NATO Secretary General, british Lord Ismay, candidly admitted that NATO’s true goal was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”
USA does not need NATO it was created by one nation and for the benefit of one nation only to create havoc in Europe on strength of American arms but crookedness of someone else-
you hear that from the horse’s mouth of the people who created NATO and are still controlling it to wage wars on the nations it does not like -which is all of the world except evil 5.spies.
There is a confusion among many that USA uses
Nato exert her influence in Europe. In fact USA does not need nato . But that entity
is needed by a third rate country which after second world war found herself
without real power so nato was created by that country to keep Germans down and
Russians out using American arms and American
money..
Since early 90s that same country manoeuvred to keep Nato alive and
install her stooges in European commission like british spy barrasso and English witch catherine
ashton and many more inside European bureaucracy to make Europe follow one and only one policy
to be dictated by that same country.
Name of the evil country? Of course it is england.
Russia-know thy enemy !
===================
We lie, we cheat and we steal" (Mike Pompeo, former US Secretary of State and CIA director). This is the foundation of Perfidious Albion and the current USA establishment IF they are unable to compete with honor, dignity and fairness. Whatever is said about Russia today are simply lies because they LOST. It is the same for China. "Western polling" has confirmed the Chinese population have a 95% approval rating of the CPC and Xi Jinping. Western educated mouthpieces cannot grasp what is explained by this old Martin Jacques quote:
“The importance of maintaining the unity of China as a civilisation, as a state, as a civilisation-state, is the most important political imperative for Chinese politicians We [the West] believe the government’s reach should be restrained. The Chinese have a completely different view, they view [government] as the head of the family. This represents a profoundly different relationship between the state and society that we find in the West.” According to Jacques, following and believing in the state is, for the Chinese, “an expression and embodiment of Chinese civilization.”
Russians see Putin in the same way....
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 17:28 utc | 26
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12
#######
Who is "we"?
Many of us are not Yankees and do not care about Imperialist politics.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:30 utc | 27
Regarding the slow rate of Ukrainian collapse, a lot of things are like that.
The Titanic sustained fatal damage in what? 10 seconds? Maybe 30 seconds? But if you expected it to sink beneath the waves 60 seconds thereafter, you'd be quite wrong. (The sinking was nonetheless inevitable from the start.)
I think Russia is trying to minimize its casualties, along with those of civilians on both sides. And also to teach a lengthy lesson to the West, which is that even with an extended time period to plan and react in multiple cycles, they cannot win such wars.
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28
@ Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28
Russia's SMO is am accelerating process of complete financial, economic and military destruction of the entire collective west.
Putin knows it takes time but he will succeed.
Posted by: AI | Oct 6 2024 17:42 utc | 29
Some supply contracts for very critical raw materials, which the Russian Federation is dutifully fulfilling despite the sanctions, are expiring at the end of the year...Who should manage the new contracts on the part of the EU and the individual states??? Hard to imagine what that could even look like...
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 17:49 utc | 30
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28
I think Russia is trying to minimize its casualties, along with those of civilians on both sides.
Yes. The minimization of Russian casualties is the main thing.
Putin's single failure so far is the rasing of Russian fertility above 2.0 per female lifetime, though he has achieved substantial (yet insufficient) improvements over a two decade period.
Moving fast in the Ukraines goes against that objective. Those soldiers have to return and impregnate Russian females, populate the far east.
Putin is totally different to Western politicians in that regard, he is looking at the mid to long term.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2024 17:50 utc | 31
Why would the RF want to crush the Kursk pocket now?
Its to their great advantage not crush the pocket, because allowing the pocket to exist is kind of like a black hole, it keeps attracting regiment s of infantry and battalions of armor to be utterly destroyed in an RF fire cauldron.
Over 21K UAF KIA's, 40K WIA's, 1,200 units of armor turning into junkyard scrap.......it does not get much better than that........destroying in detail an entire UAF army.
Very smart thinking here..........
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Oct 6 2024 17:51 utc | 32
I recall back in early 2023 Gerasimov (either him or Shoigu) said they expected to reach their objectives by the end of 2024 barring unforseen support by NATO. I recall that they accounted for NATO support in their estimate. In other words not only Ukraine will be defeated but NATO will be out of arms to give them as well.
So obviously Russia has a plan and a timetable ... they just don't give us many details for obvious reasons.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 16:55 utc | 16
NOPE, it is not going to be finished that fast.
Chechen wars took almost 12 years to finish.
In WW2 Russia fought against Germany and Japan mainly, and against weak forces from Romania, Hungary. Russia had help from US and UK and China.
This time Russia only has China and Iran and NK to help.
Ukraine has Germany, France, US, UK and full NATO 30+ countries on it's side. Plus AU/Japan South Korea, etc. Ukraine has a big and very well trained army at the start of SMO.
Those countries that are against Russia today might not have so much "industry" left BUT they have satellites and ISR and a big already made inventory of weapons, military vehicles, rockets and other stuff in storage.
It will take a LOT of time to destroy all this NATO stuff.
Ukraine is very well propagandized and will fight until the last man with weapons and bullets from West.
Maybe propaganda or fear is so big that even EU will fight until the last man if needed.
Russia has to take all this into consideration and plan for a long war against 30+ countries. Not an easy task to complete IMHO.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:02 utc | 33
Russia's objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state.
With this in mind, gaining territory seems more a consequence than a goal. Having said that though, if a negotiated settlement is not possible, and as it seems that is the case, Russia may be inclined to create a neutral zone itself.
Posted by: Jacob | Oct 6 2024 18:05 utc | 34
All those folks “bigging up” NATO capabilities don’t understand quite how broken the NATO supply chains are. A small but ongoing example is a shortage of camouflage paint for the British Army, stemming from production difficulties in the German chemical industry, in turn related to the steep rise in energy costs.
Another factor that received next-to-no attention in the bar is the recent widespread and severe flooding across Central Europe, washing out rail and road transport links in Austria, Czechia and Poland among others. Not easy to move rail-borne tanks and armoured vehicles by rail replacement bus services, along roads already congested and suffering their own diversions because of flood breaches.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:21 utc | 35
Russia's objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state.
With this in mind, gaining territory seems more a consequence than a goal. Having said that though, if a negotiated settlement is not possible, and as it seems that is the case, Russia may be inclined to create a neutral zone itself.
Posted by: Jacob | Oct 6 2024 18:05 utc | 34
Russia will have to de-militarize the whole NATO + countries since they all fully support Ukraine with stuff.
How do you make a country that hates you "neutral"?
You can write it into the constitution but they will find a way to re-arm and attack you again later.
Russia would have to take all of Ukraine (and this will be very hard or not even desired or possible) and then "de-program" the minds of generations of propagandized people.
Chechen style but much much harder to do.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:27 utc | 36
How do you make a country that hates you "neutral"?
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:27 utc | 36
---
Santa Claus would give the bad children a lump of coal.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 18:34 utc | 37
All those folks “bigging up” NATO capabilities don’t understand quite how broken the NATO supply chains are. A small but ongoing example is a shortage of camouflage paint for the British Army, stemming from production difficulties in the German chemical industry, in turn related to the steep rise in energy costs.
Another factor that received next-to-no attention in the bar is the recent widespread and severe flooding across Central Europe, washing out rail and road transport links in Austria, Czechia and Poland among others. Not easy to move rail-borne tanks and armoured vehicles by rail replacement bus services, along roads already congested and suffering their own diversions because of flood breaches.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:21 utc | 35
Well, and still they get re supply of tanks and IFV and other military stuff.
Ukraine is loosing a LOT of tanks and armor and artillery but somehow they always get more.
I guess that the "civilians" in EU / NATO will be left to die or suffer from whatever problems exist but NATO / US military will find a way to move all those tanks across RU to Ukraine.
Besides ISR satellites and starlink does not suffer from "floods".
And BTW Russia is NOT going to let the civilians from Ukraine without energy or infrastructure this winter behind the front lines. They will not starve and will not freeze. They will have sanitation, hospitals and clean water to drink.
This is NOT the Russian way of war to attack civilians.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38
Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2024 18:34 utc | 37
In an energy-starved rump Ukraine that could be worth its weight in gold...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:38 utc | 39
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38
Well, and still they get re supply of tanks and IFV and other military stuff.Are the replacements on a one-to-one basis? If not, then attrition is inevitable.
Ukraine is loosing a LOT of tanks and armor and artillery but somehow they always get more.
Besides ISR satellites and starlink does not suffer from "floods".Neither are they transport corridors. It‘s all very well having the intel/reconnaissance, having the kit to act upon it is entirely a different matter.
And BTW Russia is NOT going to let the civilians from Ukraine without energy or infrastructure this winter behind the front lines. They will not starve and will not freeze. They will have sanitation, hospitals and clean water to drink.True enough for citizens in those areas Russia controls; can’t say the same for the population still living under the corrupt Kiev junta.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:49 utc | 40
Россия нуждается в новой стратегии
Рациональный миротворец
Я немец, который испытывает симпатию к России и заинтересован в мирном разрешении конфликтов, в частности, чтобы третья мировая война не разгорелась в полную силу. Поэтому пишу эти строки. У меня нет ни малейшего понимания для тех, кто в НАТО подстрекает к войне, их безответственные эскалации и бесконечную цепь лжи, которую западная пропаганда создает для оправдания войны против России. Что касается причин конфликта, то я во многом согласен с российской точкой зрения. Однако рациональный взгляд на вещи также требует честной оценки до сих пор достигнутых результатов «Специальной военной операции», которая, к сожалению, превратилась в войну. Это предполагает изменение прежней стратегии, чтобы предотвратить дальнейший ущерб для России и снизить риск глобальной эскалации. Давайте начнем с первоначальных целей и достигнутых результатов.
1. Денацификация
К сожалению, достигнуто здесь мало. Киевский режим действует преступнее, чем когда-либо, а западные страны отравлены русофобией, которая разрушила отношения на десятилетия. Разжигание ненависти между народами не вина России, но это результат.
2. Демилитаризация
Верно, что на Украине было уничтожено большое количество оружия. Но из-за неиссякаемого притока нового западного оружия в стране его больше, чем когда-либо. Причем оно более современное, опасное и наносит значительный ущерб России.
3. Предотвращение вступления в НАТО
Здесь есть два аспекта. России не хочется границы с НАТО в 500 км от Москвы? С вступлением Швеции и Финляндии граница теперь в 100 км от Петербурга и стала на 1300 км длиннее. Такова география. Далее, что значит «член НАТО»? Лишь кусок бумаги, подписанный людьми, которым и так нельзя доверять? На деле Украина уже давно 'в составе НАТО'. Военные структуры интегрированы в НАТО, НАТОвское оружие поставляется, наемники и инструкторы НАТО находятся в Украине, НАТО обеспечивает разведку и финансирование. В чем разница? Россия боится помощи стран НАТО по статье 5? Так они уже ведут войну против России.
4. Экономическая война
Не цель СВО, но результат. У России украли 300 миллиардов долларов, невероятная сумма. К этому добавляются ущербы инфраструктуре, такие как «Северный поток» и нефтяная промышленность. Несет ли Запад тоже затраты? Да, но они коллективные. Война вредит всем, кроме тех, кто наживается на энергетической и военной промышленности. Этот противник - военно-промышленный комплекс США - стратегически укреплен.
5. Уменьшился ли риск мировой войны?
История покажет, но кажется, что ситуация на сегодняшний день гораздо более опасна, чем карибский кризис. Российские системы раннего предупреждения повреждены, время предупреждения сокращено. Кроме того, СВО способствовало расцвету западной пропаганды. Россию стали ненавидеть и перестали уважать, а Запад, похоже, потерял страх перед войной.
6. Переход к мультиполярному мировому порядку?
Красивая теория, но не более того. Не всегда побеждают хорошие парни, а симпатии глав африканских государств мало помогут, пока США имеют технологическое превосходство и им позволяют продолжать эту войну. Дальнейшее глобальное развитие в сфере искусственного интеллекта, совершенно непредсказуемо.
7. Новые территории.
Россия может рассматривать это как выигрыш, хотя восстановление регионов будет стоить денег. Однако если говорить о защите русскоязычного населения, то как быть с Одессой, Харьковом, Запорожье? Это остаётся нереалистичным, особенно если защищать население приходится бомбёжками. Об этом известно с первых дней войны.
Против всего этого можно возразить, что СВО ещё не завершена, и её цели в конечном итоге будут достигнуты. Захват Мариуполя, Северодонецка и Лисичанска проходил ещё относительно быстро. Но с потоком западного оружия и учитывая неудачи со стороны России, операция замедлилась настолько, что конец войны за счёт постоянного продвижения российских войск полностью нереалистичен: если считать в квадратных километрах в месяц, достижение военных целей займёт более 100 лет. Конечно, можно, как это делают оптимистичные комментаторы на протяжении двух лет, мечтать о крахе политической системы. Но поддержка Запада продолжается, а киевский режим может ещё долго снижать возраст призыва: до последнего украинца ещё много кровавых лет.
Итог: Если стратегия не приводит к желаемым результатам, её нужно менять. Повторять одно и то же и ожидать других результатов уже осудил Альберт Эйнштейн. Не случайно он также презирал войну. Но даже не-пацифистический, рациональный взгляд однозначно показывает: так война не закончится. Продолжение влечёт за собой непредсказуемые риски, для России в том числе.
Основной вопрос: стоит ли завоёвывать территорию ценой человеческих жизней? Нужно ли России больше квадратных километров? Большинство, вероятно, предпочли бы, чтобы их близкие были бы еще живы. Мы должны вернуться к правильным ценностям.
В этом смысле изменение стратегии возможно в три этапа.
I. Больше не завоёвывать территорию, что угрожает жизни российских солдат. Это касается даже Курской области. Это может звучать горько, но в конечном счете это результат собственной некомпетентности. Кто останется в выигрыше, если помимо беженцев увеличивается и число погибших?
Такое изменение курса должно быть чётко обозначено. Это значительно усложнило бы Западу поддержание своей лжи о российских завоевательных стремлениях. В информационном пространстве Россия, уставшая от западной лжи, до сих пор представлена слабо. Но не общаться вредно и опасно.
На следующем этапе можно также подумать о прекращении бомбардировок украинских позиций, если от них не исходит враждебности. Какой смысл уничтожать, возможно, принудительно мобилизованных молодых парней?
Вместо этого следует усилить атаки на вооруженные системы, западных наёмников и военные объекты НАТО на Украине. Только это действительно может причинить боль агрессорам, ведь мёртвые украинцы Вашингтону абсолютно безразличны. Если прекратить атаки на украинцев, возможно, также увеличится готовность сотрудничать с Россией в сборе информации о объектах НАТО. Должно быть выработано осознание того, что Россия вместе с разумными украинцами борется против преступного марионеточного режима Запада.
II. Перед третьим шагом необходимо повышение всесторонней информационной активности России. Западные правительства действуют безответственно и не в интересах своих стран, однако их всё ещё поддерживает большинство, которому коррумпированные и лживые СМИ хорошенько промыли мозги. Президенту хорошо бы было регулярно обращаться непосредственно к населению западных стран, с хорошей синхронизацией на нескольких языках, и ясно объяснять, что это оборона против агрессии НАТО. При этом необходимо конкретно озвучивать цели собственных действий и следующие шаги. И, конечно, за словами должны следовать действия. Последние два года ясно показали, что абстрактные предостережения никто не воспринимает всерьёз.
III. Наконец, и я повторяю, в этом порядке, после прекращения собственных завоеваний и достаточной коммуникации, России нужно активнее защищаться от настоящего агрессора. Абсолютный минимум в этом случае — уничтожение американских дронов над Чёрным морем, которые готовят следующие ракетные удары. Даже на Западе каждый, у кого есть хоть крупица разума, должен это понять, просто потому, что НАТО ТАМ делать нечего.
Также никто, у кого насчитывается хотя бы пара извилин в мозге — а такие люди есть даже в Вашингтоне — не сможет использовать это как предлог для начала третьей мировой войны. Скорее, такая заявленная, обоснованная и законная реакция России наконец заставит ястребов задуматься, с каким огнём они играют. Это будет первым шагом к коррекции губительной асимметрии этой войны: НАТО ведёт войну против России, а Россия — «только» против Украины. Это похоже на феномен 'смещения активности' в психологии: вместо того чтобы решать настоящую проблему, делается что-то, что кажется на первый взгляд более удобным. Пока Западу позволяют играть в покер без собственных ставок, где на кону стоит весь мир, риски будут расти.
Не нужно, как Караганов, требовать использования ядерного оружия, хотя его рассуждения имеют под собой реальные основания. Если не открыть маленькие вентили российской контрреакции, рано или поздно произойдёт 'большой взрыв'. Поэтому Россия должна оставить за собой право на размеренные, поэтапные, хорошо обоснованные и коммуницируемые эскалации.
К этому относится не только фокусирование на центрах НАТОвского вооружения на Украине, но и в конечном итоге чисто военные цели в самих странах НАТО. Конечно, после ясного заявления: мы защищаемся от вашей агрессии, держитесь подальше от военных объектов. Мы сожалеем о каждой жертве, но оружие, используемое против нашей страны, мы уничтожим. Всё это понятно и, если не принимать в расчёт перспективу неисправимых лжецов и лицемеров, даже соответствует международному праву.
Страх перед эскалацией понятен, но всё остальное — самообман. Третья мировая война уже началась, и речь идёт о том, чтобы не допустить её дальнейшего апокалиптического развития. Опыт с 2022 года ясно показывает, что прежняя стратегия нереагирования побуждала западных лидеров к эскалациям. Они могут быть глупы и безответственны, но это печальная реальность.
К сожалению, нет предсказуемого сценария для окончания этой войны. В обозримом будущем никто не может выиграть, поэтому Россия должна перейти к стратегии, которую можно будет долго поддерживать: больше никаких наступлений, но эффективная оборона против настоящего врага.
На международном уровне такие разумные государства как Китай, Индия или даже Венгрия, одобрят это. И это будет самым эффективным оружием против украинского режима и западных военных подстрекателей. Ведь одно они точно не переживут - конец войны и последующий вопрос, зачем всё это было нужно.
Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Oct 6 2024 18:51 utc | 41
Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Oct 6 2024 18:51 utc | 41
To save everyone else chasing around for their translation app, the above can be summarised as “doom-porn”...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 18:54 utc | 42
I think Russia is trying to minimize its casualties, along with those of civilians on both sides.Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 6 2024 17:35 utc | 28
Ah, yes, the "minimizing casualties" canard again.
Sure minimizing casualties is the objective here. Which is best achieved through frontal assaults against the most fortified sections of the front (instead of flanking the Donbass through Sumy and Kharkov) while not doing absolutely anything to isolate the battlefield and allowing the enemy completely uninterrupted supply of everything.
If the objective was minimizing casualties, the war would have been over a long time ago. Russia could have recovered the whole of Ukraine with 10,000 casualties and in three to six months had the political leadership taken certain obvious to everyone organizational and military-technical steps that still have not been taken to this day.
Why was that not done?
Because the interests of the following groups:
1) Russian oligarchs
2) Ukrainian oligarchs
3) Western oligarchs (yes, those too)
Are more dear to the Kremlin's heart than the life and limbs of regular Russian grunts. And those interests would be severely threatened by the organization and military-technical measures that must be taken. So the slog continues, indefinitely...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 18:55 utc | 43
Some very stupid people still do not undestand that there are no more oligarchs in Russia.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 44
And BTW Russia is NOT going to let the civilians from Ukraine without energy or infrastructure this winter behind the front lines. They will not starve and will not freeze. They will have sanitation, hospitals and clean water to drink.This is NOT the Russian way of war to attack civilians.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38
Well, yeah, but then what was the point of spending more than a billion dollars on destroying power plants (that you will then have to spend further billions on rebuilding) if there was never any real intention of pushing the grid over the edge, which would be the only thing that would make a difference with respect to the conduct of the war. As it is, thousands of cruise missiles were spent on hitting such targets with absolutely no effect on the war aside from the attrition of Ukrainian air defense.
But the latter could have been done just as well by hitting other targets.
They could have been sending one missile at every border crossing with Poland Romania every 3-4 days instead, and it would have depleted air defense all the same while taking out those roads for a few days each time and thus actually disrupting the flow of weapons at least a bit. Of course those targets should have received tactical nukes to solve the problem decisively and semi-permanently, and to also send a clear message, but assuming nukes are off-limits, then the next best thing was to hit them regularly conventionally. This would have been a much better use of those missiles that hitting the grid but not taking it out and destroying your own former and future infrastructure.
NATO isn't even using its own missiles to destroy legacy Soviet infrastructure that will presumably one day be in Russian hands again, the Kremlin is doing it for them instead. How f****d up is that...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 45
" Because the interests of the following groups:
1) Russian oligarchs
2) Ukrainian oligarchs
3) Western oligarchs (yes, those too)
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 18:55 utc | 43 "
Let me make a slight correction:
1) (((Russian oligarchs)))
2) (((Ukrainian oligarchs)))
3) (((Western oligarchs)))
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:04 utc | 46
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 18:55 utc | 43
Ah, the Daily Telegraph intern is back, LARP-ing as someone with a unique level of insight and understanding that is way beyond us mere mortals.
The God-Like Genius Of Shadowbanned has descended from on high this Sunday evening, delivering a solemn sermon (with none of the levity and bon-mots of @DunGroanin!).
***NEWSFLASH***
You’re backing the losing side, pal; get used to it.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:05 utc | 47
Some very stupid people still do not undestand that there are no more oligarchs in Russia.Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 44
Then why did Putin have to on the day the war started apologetically explain himself to the board of directors of RF LLC and reassure them that nothing will fundamentally change in the relationship with the West if those people don't matter at all and they have no corrosive influence on the conduct of the war through their relationship with the West?
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:05 utc | 48
Sam | Oct 6 2024 16:06 utc | 12
I don't think people are abandoning these threads for Palestine threads, but not so much is happening on "our" fronts atm compared with the big new moves (like Israel v Iran) happening in that theatre.
To some extent these two fronts will impact on each other, in that Iran may not have so much to give to Russia right now, while Russia is (I think) giving Iran air defences that would doubtless be useful on the Ukraine front. OTOH if the US is throwing hardware at Israel, hopefully that's less for Ukraine.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 6 2024 19:07 utc | 49
Also, why did you choose "1917" as your handle?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 6 2024 17:15 utc | 23
--------------
A reference to the February & October Revolutions, I suppose.
The implication are that Russia is doomed to suffer political implosion and civil war, due to "failures" in the SMO. Which in fact would be the only vague hope of Ukraine/NATO victory.
That or Russia getting unluckily hit with multiple large meteors, only in key places.
He/She/They are an endgelord pro-Ukr troll, unconvincingly masquerading as a pro-Russian hardliner.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 6 2024 19:08 utc | 50
" Russia's objectives as stated from the start of the military operation are to de-militerise and denazify Ukraine and make it a neutral state.
Posted by: Jacob | Oct 6 2024 18:05 utc | 34 "
In your opinion what realistic steps does Russia need to take to achieve the above goals?
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:08 utc | 51
was there ever any doubt about Ukraine's fate? Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine
Israelis bathing in a drinking well in Ukraine
https://x.com/i/status/1841069013910045031
Israelis arriving and preparing for the new Ukraine
https://x.com/i/status/1842876696124387700
The new migrants of Ukraine celebrating their new Homeland
https://x.com/i/status/1841514578469113985
Posted by: ld | Oct 6 2024 19:12 utc | 52
And a litle something for the Kernel Comedian, who has also graced us with an appearance from on high:
It turned out interesting. "Unikums" from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine loaded secret documents and maps into bots Chat GPT so that the neural network will tell them how to defeat Russia. Dozens of secret documents have been leaked to the public.
https://voenhronika.ru/
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:12 utc | 53
" You could make up your own translation and then tell the bar what it believes. No need for the drama of pretend integrity.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 17 "
Why so mean ? I dont speak Russia and would like to have whats purported to be in the video verified. Be nice.
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 54
Some very stupid people still think that nothing changed in the relationships between Russia and the west.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 55
Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine
Posted by: ld | Oct 6 2024 19:12 utc | 52
New evidence that they are judeonazis.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:18 utc | 56
Imagine an alternate universe where the Russian Federation was in a non-nuclear armed conflict with NATO forces, and you were the head of American and all NATO forces. Suppose then that the RF landed tens of thousands of infantry along with artillery, armored vehicles, and everything else, into a remote part of Alaska, capturing small settlements and overrunning local forces.
Would you transfer what was needed to wipe them out from the front lines in Europe, or would you methodically take apart the invaders with missiles and drones? Needless to say, the logistic demands of transferring forces from Europe to a remote part of Alaska would be considerable.
Please indulge me as I use this post as an opportunity to again share a link to a SF alternate history novel from the 1950s. A great read imo, though as you might expect in a novel written by an American veteran of WWII about a war between the USA and Russia/China, Russia is the bad guy, lol.
The author is C.M. Kornbluth, a writer who died quite young, in his prime, but whose career was fascinating.
https://en.m.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_This_August">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_This_August">https://en.m.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_This_August
Links to read the novel here: https://www.fadedpage.com/showbook.php?pid=20110709
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 19:22 utc | 57
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 55
Indeed, some very stupid people are still stuck in the 1990s. “West stronk, Russia weak”.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:25 utc | 58
That "1917" person reminds me of someone who used to be a plague in here.
That feeling of having to chew on a wet woollen mitten.
Unbearable.
Posted by: Avtonom | Oct 6 2024 19:27 utc | 59
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 14:57 utc | 2
You are not going to quit 'vargassing' but you certainly have earned the 'cone of silence.'
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 60
The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be deemed as done.
At this point Pres Putin will announce an end to the SMO in its present state. It will then become a defensive operation on the borders of the new Russia and the new Ukraine.
How the west handles this is up to them. But the proverbial ball will be firmly in their court.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 61
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 6 2024 16:08 utc | 13
Always useful, thank you.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 62
На международном уровне такие разумные государства как Китай, Индия или даже Венгрия, одобрят это. И это будет самым эффективным оружием против украинского режима и западных военных подстрекателей. Ведь одно они точно не переживут - конец войны и последующий вопрос, зачем всё это было нужно.
Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Oct 6 2024 18:51 utc | 41
----------------------------------------------------------
May I suggest you turn on the translator prior to posting. That saves every single bar fly the effort, assuming that what you are posting has some relevance.
I'll wait.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:34 utc | 63
There have been quite a few new monikers on MoA recently, rather consistently presenting cherry-picked concern-trolling contained in a 'pro-Russia/pro-Palestine' posture. I think it unlikely that these are bearing much fruit in this particular venue, rather, I think that MoA has become a test-bed, a Spanish Civil War, for trying out new narratives to be refined before they are deployed in more important theaters of operation.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 6 2024 15:58 utc | 11
----------------------------------------------------------
Noticed that new style of presence. Uncle Sam's Misguided Children have a term I much prefer, although there is disagreement with regard to its actual pronunciation 'ijut.'
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:39 utc | 64
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:34 utc | 63
I already ran it through a translator, safe to say you aren’t missing anything; it’s doom porn straight out of the shadowbanned/1917/Ed4/Julian/Moonie troll cubicles.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:40 utc | 65
Dima says that Western countries are going to lift any remaining restriction on long range weapons.
Ukraine would be able to attack deep in Russia.
So, nobody in the west took seriously Putin's warning and red lines. The West has no fear, it is madness, or they know that Russia would not dare to retaliate, even if hit with n. weapons.
These long range missiles are already in Ukraine and Russia wants to destroy them.
Dima says that Russia is in panic, guessing where these weapons are and trying to destroy them.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 6 2024 19:40 utc | 66
" You could make up your own translation and then tell the bar what it believes. No need for the drama of pretend integrity.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 17:01 utc | 17 "
---------------------------
Why so mean ? I dont speak Russia and would like to have whats purported to be in the video verified. Be nice.
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 6 2024 19:13 utc | 54
--------------------------------------------------
Why be so naive? For real. There are translators on the Web. The helping hand is at the end of your arm, my Greek mother-in-law used to say. Go, Moonie, go!
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:43 utc | 67
The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be deemed as done.At this point Pres Putin will announce an end to the SMO in its present state. It will then become a defensive operation on the borders of the new Russia and the new Ukraine.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 61
If that is Putin's plan, he has to be dragged out of the Kremlin in chains, beheaded publicly in the middle of the Red Square for high treason for the whole world to see, for that is exactly what such a plan is, and be replaced by somebody who will defend Russia's interests. Because Putin has mostly been betraying Russia's interests for the last quarter of a century, and this would cross the last line.
Nothing short of the 1939 borders suffices in terms of correcting historic injustice, and nothing short of occupying the whole of Ukraine will solve the problem with long-range strikes into Russia through the Ukrainian proxy that is getting worse and worse with each passing month.
Finally, nothing short of physically throwing the US out of Europe solves the strategic balance problem. Some of us recall a certain administration in Moscow very confidently presenting the US with an ultimatum in December 2021 on that matter. What happened since then? Missiles and drones are flying into Russia daily, meanwhile what is flying into the US and Europe?
Dima says that Russia is in panic, guessing where these weapons are and trying to destroy them.
It is in panick because after already getting nuked several times, it has to assume a lot of those are not conventional warheads.
The whole not-war was started for the sole purpose of not having NATO nuclear missiles 300 miles away from Moscow. Not to save Russian people in Ukraine from genocide, nobody cared about that. And yet then NATO was allowed to station whatever it wanted 300 miles away from Moscow. In fact, right now they can drive a HIMARS TEL with ATACMS on it into Kursk and hit Moscow from inside Russian territory...
A historic success for Putinism. Perhaps non-ironically even...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:45 utc | 68
And BTW Russia is NOT going to let the civilians from Ukraine without energy or infrastructure this winter behind the front lines. They will not starve and will not freeze. They will have sanitation, hospitals and clean water to drink.
This is NOT the Russian way of war to attack civilians.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:37 utc | 38
Well, yeah, but then what was the point of spending more than a billion dollars on destroying power plants (that you will then have to spend further billions on rebuilding) if there was never any real intention of pushing the grid over the edge, which would be the only thing that would make a difference with respect to the conduct of the war. As it is, thousands of cruise missiles were spent on hitting such targets with absolutely no effect on the war aside from the attrition of Ukrainian air defense.
---
Well, We will have to ask Russian military command about that purpose. I am sure it was well thought.
My opinion is that it was used to destroy only energy generation near the front line to make problems for repair factories for military equipment. It is rather complicated to run a metal works factory on diesel generators.
Then I suspect that the Russian cruise missiles and Iskanders are NOT that costly. Surely much cheaper than the US/NATO counterpart (if they exist at all) And they did not used 1000 of them for this purpose only, more like low hundreds of them
Then it will be a boost for the Russian economy to rebuild new Energy infrastructure in Ukraine... Mariupol style ;)
True there was never an intention to push the grid over the edge.
I do not expect to be a lot of air defense near energy generation plants in Ukraine.
Any missile launch at any target will have to be intercepted anyway.
any damage to the economy has an effect to the war even if not "over the edge"
Any war is also an economic and logistical issue.
---
But the latter could have been done just as well by hitting other targets.
They could have been sending one missile at every border crossing with Poland Romania every 3-4 days instead, and it would have depleted air defense all the same while taking out those roads for a few days each time and thus actually disrupting the flow of weapons at least a bit. Of course those targets should have received tactical nukes to solve the problem decisively and semi-permanently, and to also send a clear message, but assuming nukes are off-limits, then the next best thing was to hit them regularly conventionally. This would have been a much better use of those missiles that hitting the grid but not taking it out and destroying your own former and future infrastructure.
---
But Russia DOES hit near Romanian Danube ports in Odessa region quite often.
But my guess is that the hit ONLY when they have good intel about military transports. They can also follow them and hit them later and much closer to the front line with faster fly times.
Long range hits to Romania an Poland borders have a risk of a false flag and are relatively easier to defend against since longer distance allows NATO ISR to give better coordinates to Ukriane AD
I have noticed they use mostly cheap Geran 2 drones for this and also launch missiles from subs in Black Sea for a shorter fly path.
For Poland border no such shorter fly path exist since they do NOT launch from Belarus.
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NATO isn't even using its own missiles to destroy legacy Soviet infrastructure that will presumably one day be in Russian hands again, the Kremlin is doing it for them instead. How f****d up is that...
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Well why would NATO destroy Ukraine more than it has already done with this war?
NATO still needs Ukraine to fight so why would they attack it in a direct way?
Russia might not want or not be capable to take all of Ukraine hence the infrastructure might remain for "neutral" Ukraine to use or be "rebuild" with good contracts...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:03 utc | 45
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 19:46 utc | 69
Simplicius has another article up, quoting defeated Ukie troops repeating suggestions for 'negotiations.'
Simplicius did not suggest that a white flag or surrender were viable options. My own suggestion for the start of 'negotiations' would be this opening sentence to Putin:
'How high?'
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:46 utc | 70
Imagine an alternate universe where the Russian Federation was in a non-nuclear armed conflict with NATO forces, and you were the head of American and all NATO forces. Suppose then that the RF landed tens of thousands of infantry along with artillery, armored vehicles, and everything else, into a remote part of Alaska, capturing small settlements and overrunning local forces.Would you transfer what was needed to wipe them out from the front lines in Europe, or would you methodically take apart the invaders with missiles and drones? Needless to say, the logistic demands of transferring forces from Europe to a remote part of Alaska would be considerable.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 19:22 utc | 57
The analogy breaks up completely because Kursk is not remote Alaska, it is right in the Russian core region, and as conveniently close to logistics as possible. Also, right at the front line of an active war for a third year now.
Worse, Russia was supposed to be amassing forces for a Sumy offensive, but clearly that was a myth, because those forces were nowhere to be found when NATO just waltzed in unopposed...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:48 utc | 71
The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be deemed as done.
At this point Pres Putin will announce an end to the SMO in its present state. It will then become a defensive operation on the borders of the new Russia and the new Ukraine.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 61
-----------------------------------------------------
Could be. NATO would not mind having Odessa as a NATO port. I cannot see the Russian electorate, Putin included, be willing to extend itself that far. Blood, expended treasure, lies, etc. you know.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:50 utc | 72
Kinda funny how Russian elites live in Northern America and Western Europe. Wouldn't Moscow and Saint Petersburg be comfortable for them ?
Posted by: Miserable Elf | Oct 6 2024 19:54 utc | 73
But Russia DOES hit near Romanian Danube ports in Odessa region quite often.Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 19:46 utc | 69
That is the only sector of the Ukrainian border that is being hit.
Poland has never been touched, same for the part of Romania west of Moldova.
The tunnel towards Slovakia was hit once, but that didn't do much, as that one requires a tactical nuke to collapse it. And that's it.
But my guess is that the hit ONLY when they have good intel about military transports. They can also follow them and hit them later and much closer to the front line with faster fly times.
Have you seen Orlans flying along the Polish border and calling strikes on trains? No. They could have been, but they haven't.
Regardless, the empirical question is whether supply has been materially disrupted. You can argue that it would have been even worse without the strikes that have been carried out in Odessa and in between western Ukraine and the front lines. I am sure it would indeed have been worse. But we are talking about doing sufficient damage to logistics, and clearly that has not been done because the AFU is not really short of anything -- tanks, MRLSs, IFVs, ammo, drones, you name it are making it to the front lines in large quantities and Russia has hard time advancing. Objective facts.
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:55 utc | 74
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:48 utc | 71
You should give upreading eejits like Rural Girlstalker and Riley Wigwamgamma...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:55 utc | 75
NOPE, it is not going to be finished that fast.
Chechen wars took almost 12 years to finish.
... yea but the Crimean war lasted 2.5 years and the USA Afghan war lasted 20. Do the math ... carry the zero ... and you get absolutely fuck all to do with anything
In WW2 Russia fought against Germany and Japan mainly, and against weak forces from Romania, Hungary. Russia had help from US and UK and China.
This time Russia only has China and Iran and NK to help.
Ukraine ain't the Wehrmacht circa 1941. Ukraine didn't attack Russia with a 3.5 million man professional army at a time when the Russian army was being purged and undergoing a major organizational reshuffle.
Those countries that are against Russia today might not have so much "industry" left BUT they have satellites and ISR and a big already made inventory of weapons, military vehicles, rockets and other stuff in storage.
It will take a LOT of time to destroy all this NATO stuff.
lets just unpack this for a moment. Ukraine had a big army but without western intervention it would have been destroyed back in the fall of 2022.
Recall how the NATO countries back then searched high and low for T-72's and mig- 29 from the stocks of all the ex Warsaw Pact NATO members.
Then there was the second rebuilding of a 60,000 strong NATO trained force that got taken apart and totally destroyed in the summer of 2023.
After that there was the $60 B in aid from the USA this summer ... most of which the USA can't provide because they have to build it first.
Unless NATO starts canabalizing active duty forces there's nothing left to give. ISR only helps Ukraine with targeting ... it doesn't help them if they don't have weapons.
Ukraine is very well propagandized and will fight until the last man with weapons and bullets from West.
According to the west and Ukrainian propaganda. These are the same people who told us last week that "US navy destroyers and the IDF shot down 100% of Iranian missiles" when it was obvious that they didn't. These same people tell us that Ukrainians want to drive the Russians out yet whenever the Ukrainians have free and fair elections they elect politicians favourable to Russia ... Zelensky ran on a platform of peace with Russia and direct talks with putin FFS.
Russia has to take all this into consideration and plan for a long war against 30+ countries. Not an easy task to complete IMHO.
I don't think you understand what's happening in the world right now.
The USA / EU shout the loudest but really they are only about 14% of the worlds population. The USA / EU controls the worlds financial system but NOT the worlds economy.
The BRICs countries control the worlds supply chains and you'll notice that sanctions have little negative effect on the Russian economy and even less on their weapons production. That's because the only value the west is to Russia is as a market for their goods.
Same goes for China. China makes lots of money off the US market but there isn't much the USA makes that China needs. Conversely there is almost nothing the USA makes that doesn't have at least chinese component parts including the US military. You can't make ANYTHING high tech without China because over the last 30 years they've been quietly buying up mines and ore refineries all over the world to the point where they now control the supply chains of just about everything. Even if the USA moves production of everything electronic China makes for them China still makes the same money because the USA has to buy from Chinese suppliers and if not them most likely another BRICS country.
You forget what's important in this world. Food, water and minerals are real things we need to survive ... banks, stock markets and investment instruments are services that you only go to once your needs are met. BRICS countries supply our needs.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:02 utc | 33
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 20:01 utc | 76
A reference to the February & October Revolutions, I suppose.The implication are that Russia is doomed to suffer political implosion and civil war, due to "failures" in the SMO. Which in fact would be the only vague hope of Ukraine/NATO victory.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 6 2024 19:08 utc | 50
Best scenario right now is for the General Staff to take actual power and have Putin as a puppet to maintain appearances. The problem is there are powerful forces pushing in the other direction and it's not clear they would be able to do it.
But Avakyants' article last month was a very important moment -- it was the first time someone still so close to the General Staff came out with a devastating critique of the SMO in public.
The next best scenario is a military coup but that is super risky. It will have to be properly done and with a bulletproof plan for immediate succession. Because the last time in 1991 when there was an attempt to throw the traitors out of the Kremlin it was not properly done and there was no clear plan for subsequent action, and the result was that the country fell apart. You can bet the West is salivating at the possibility of a repeat of that situation.
But at some point those risks will be outweighed by the negatives of staying on the current course, and someone will have to find the courage to act, because the alternatives will be certain end of Russia or rolling the dice on trying to save it with a coup.
So yeah, 1917 is highly relevant.
But right now it is a much worse situation because, first, you don't have the well organized Bolsheviks that the military can place its bets on for reorganizing the country, and second, back then the West invaded, but the vastness of Russian geography did its thing and they didn't get far. They have planes and missiles now though, it's a very different world...
P.S. This is from last month, a soldier on the front lines:
https://x.com/mila__alien/status/1833208049936236840
He is far from alone in sharing these sentiments. Which are steadily growing inside Russia.
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 20:05 utc | 77
The whole not-war was started for the sole purpose of not having NATO nuclear missiles 300 miles away from Moscow. Not to save Russian people in Ukraine from genocide, nobody cared about that. And yet then NATO was allowed to station whatever it wanted 300 miles away from Moscow. In fact, right now they can drive a HIMARS TEL with ATACMS on it into Kursk and hit Moscow from inside Russian territory...
A historic success for Putinism. Perhaps non-ironically even...
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:45 utc | 68
Well, they can also hit those HIMARS in Kursk and all over Ukraine now.
However a much bigger problem is the AEGIS nuclear cruise missiles launch sites in Romania, Poland and Finland potentially. Those locations are ALSO too CLOSE to Russia and low flying cruise missiles are harder to detect as compared to strategic intercontinental missiles.
Hence this issue will also have to be solved in the future. And it might require or generate a full war with NATO anyway. So it is better to keep adding military reserve resources and prepare the population for the future full war with NATO instead of going "full war" in Ukraine for now.
Even IF they get all of Ukraine today... it will NOT solve the security question for Russia. This needs a more permanent solution.
Of course full nuclear war is always possible and most likely Russia will "win" such a war. But going nuclear it is not a very happy option for Russia hence they delay this as much as possible
I think they care for real. I think Russia really wants to save Russian and Donbas population from genocide. They might even try to save the Ukrainian population...
Ah and NATO/US/UK population also... The later might NOT be possible though ...
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:06 utc | 78
I already ran it through a translator, safe to say you aren’t missing anything; it’s doom porn straight out of the shadowbanned/1917/Ed4/Julian/Moonie troll cubicles.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 19:40 utc | 65
-------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you for your efforts, MGM (My Good Man), but that is not what I was aiming for.
I want the 'ijuts' to suffer. Embarrassing them seems to be of limited effect. You were interfering, bless you and all of your comments all the same.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 20:08 utc | 79
Russia's aims cannot be realized until the Ukrainians military collapses.
That is when Russia will demand Constitutional changes barring NATO membership, and banning the Nazi ideology in law.
I've already written that Russia does not want more Ukrainian territory. They want to setup three buffer independent Oblast sized territories between rump Ukraine and Novorussiya.
Russia's aims are legal, not territorial. Legal changes cannot be made until Zelensky is out of troops to command.
Given how certain brigades won't tolerate negotiations, Russia may have to search and destroy thousands of Nazis.
Boo hoo.
The narrative from the West is that the French, Germans, and British expect to plan Ukraine's future. Clueless. The future of Ukraine will 100% be decided by the Russians.
The West likes to pretend that are calling the shots. Sad!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 20:08 utc | 80
Honzo | Oct 6 2024 15:58 utc | 11
The many new names - part of the comedians new 'victory' plan?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-present-victory-plan-ramstein-meeting-2024-10-05/
I guess plan b for the US/Nato is if you cant win a real war, use a bot army to win in social media. Bots are no doubt cheaper to produce and run than real weapons....
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2024 20:10 utc | 81
why did you choose "1917" as your handle?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 6 2024 17:15 utc | 23
########
Perhaps that was his best/before date.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 6 2024 20:11 utc | 82
1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:45 utc | 68
Sb, we've heard it all before, though I think six months ago Putin was a traitor if he didn't nuke the border regions.
The longer this all goes on without WW3, the weaker the West gets, European manufacturing goes down the tubes, Far Eastern manufacturing prospers, Russia becomes more self reliant. As a European I find this sad, but it's what every EU government bar Slovakia and Hungary seem to want.
The US also gets weaker, and this would be sad were US elites actually invested in the welfare of Americans. But they're not.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 6 2024 20:16 utc | 83
The objective of the SMO and the end of hostilities (from a Russian perspective) is quite simple: when the Russian forces have secured the borders of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaparozhia and Kherson, the job will be considered as done.
At this point Pres Putin will announce an end to the SMO in its present state. It will then become a defensive operation on the borders of the new Russia and the new Ukraine.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 19:28 utc | 61
------------------------------------------------- ----
Could be. NATO would not mind having Odessa as a NATO port. I cannot see the Russian electorate, Putin included, be willing to extend itself that far. Blood, expanded treasure, lies, etc. you know.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2024 19:50 utc | 72
Yes, I agree. I think the reaching of the borders of those oblasts that voted to join Russia, marks a sort of waypoint marker in the conflict. A place to stop, think, change track or continue.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 6 2024 20:23 utc | 84
it is right in the Russian core region, and as conveniently close to logistics as possible.
"logistics' to what? Where they invaded is between nothing and nothing. Granted the P200 highway is a nice road but it basically terminates at Sudzha, which the Ukrainians hold so they've cut communications between a a town they hold and the rest of Russia.
Worse, Russia was supposed to be amassing forces for a Sumy offensive but clearly that was a myth, because those forces were nowhere to be found when NATO just waltzed in unopposed...
That's what's commonly called a "pin". You station a force in Bryansk, or better yet bring in some inflatable tanks and create a little radio traffic, you leak you're about to invade kharkov or Sumy and the Ukrainians have to keep a force in the region just in case it happens. that's how you keep 10's of thousands of troops out of a battle without losing a man.
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 6 2024 19:48 utc | 71
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 20:23 utc | 85
TASS today -
"Dutch Defense Ministry confirms delivery of first F-16s to Ukraine"
What's the plan? The borders are like sieves for weapons flowing in. Of course, Russia's enemies are scholars and gentlepersons and would never go first response nuclear.
Posted by: Elmagnosr | Oct 6 2024 20:24 utc | 86
https://johnhelmer.net/the-war-came-to-pokrovsk/#more-90387
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 87
You forget what's important in this world. Food, water and minerals are real things we need to survive ... banks, stock markets and investment instruments are services that you only go to once your needs are met. BRICS countries supply our needs.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 18:02 utc | 33
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 6 2024 20:01 utc | 76
I do NOT forget that and I am aware of it and I agree with you on this BRICS issues.
However changing the world is a slow process and it must be done carefully.
Many big countries sit on the "fence" (eg. India Turkey)
Some countries might never ever abandon Empire, South Korea out of fear of NK or Japan out of fear of Russia and China, Mexico and Canada too close to US, etc
As long as you can still print US$ and buy food and raw materials and pay workers to do work for you with them there is still "life" and resources available for the Empire.
Of course in the long run China / Russia / Iran and BRICS will win... "the writing is on the wall"
However the problems are in the short run and IF we get to WW3 or nuclear war until then.
US / Empire might be tempted to break the world if they can not control it any longer.
Even more, the group of powerful people behind and controlling the US and western world might have already decided to do this and survive in their well prepared bunkers / silos and nuke any attempt of rebuild by China / Russia / world after ww3.
They DID attack Russia FIRST (military power house) and not China (manufacture power house) for a reason.
Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 88
I didn't know that it was possible to post outright lies here without being banned.
Too bad.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 89
If the West escalates the proxy war, so too can the Russian Federation, no need for direct strikes in reprisal to Ukraine's use of long range missiles. For the sake of American soldiers I hope that rung of the escalation ladder isn't stepped on.
And needless to say that between the Houthis and Iran, with Iran not needing Russian Federation missiles, but perhaps welcoming a few of the best ones, the shipping lanes could see a prohibitively too high an insurance cost to use. Especially if Russian satellite data is used to guide their missiles.
And additionally, the governments of Germany, Poland, and elsewhere in Europe, will be beside themselves if the RF retaliated by taking out even more of Ukraine's ability to provide electricity and heat as winter is coming. Combined with AFU losses, that could be expected to cause a flood of refugees from Ukraine into those countries.
And finally,there are gas storage and transfer installations in Ukraine that Europe would hate to see destroyed. Should Russia at the same time imply they wouldn't renew contracts to supply Europe with gas, then the markets would send the prices soaring as everyone sought to stockpile it. And of course the way the energy grid in Europe works, if Ukraine's is obliterated, some of Europe's would be disrupted. There are limits to propaganda, even during wartime, and people can't be persuaded by it that they aren't actually shivering in the cold, or that their enery bill hasn't doubled.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 6 2024 20:32 utc | 90
"The narrative from the West is that the French, Germans, and British expect to plan Ukraine's future. Clueless. The future of Ukraine will 100% be decided by the Russians."
---
That is true, as true as the Kremlin has preferred to sacrifice thousands and thousands of Russians rather than disturb the masters of the West and their private hunting ground in the Levant
The Kremlin did nothing even when a Russian plane was shot down because of it. What is more, Vladimir Vladimirovich renewed the permit for the regular bombings in Syria
For the Kremlin, the life of a Russian is worth nothing compared to the sacred whims, manias and delusions of the masters of the West
If the Russian foreign minister were not a classist idiot but a lucid man, and if he were a true patriot, he would have said to Antony: - Look, Antony, if you disturb me in Ukraine, I will disturb you in "our (your) colonial project"
But it seemed more convenient to the Kremlin to sacrifice thousands and thousands of Russian serfs
Posted by: Simon | Oct 6 2024 20:33 utc | 91
And now we have one more stupid guy dreaming that Russia is in panic.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:37 utc | 92
As long as you can still print US$ and buy food and raw materials and pay workers to do work for you with them there is still "life" and resources available for the Empire.Posted by: bog | Oct 6 2024 20:25 utc | 88
Which works, until the countries with the resources and raw materials say “No, we no longer accept your dollars/pounds/euros. If you wish to buy from us you have three choices: pay us in our currency; pay us in gold/silver bullion; or go without.”
When the enforcement of the dollar/pound/euro complex is provided by a Carrier Battle Group in every ocean and a plethora of military bases, it works, until ultra-fast and ultra-accurate long-range missiles are acquired by the resource-holding nations.
Then what?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 6 2024 20:40 utc | 93
The situation for the ukronazis is really very, very bad considering the number of "comments" (aka lies) posted here by several agents provocateurs.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 6 2024 20:41 utc | 94
Iskander destroys container ship with Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition in Odessa region
Russian Defense Ministry shows footage of attack on weapons ship near Odessa. Russian military personnel eliminated a container ship with ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the port of Yuzhny in Odessa Oblast using the Iskander-M missile system. The corresponding footage was published by the Russian Defense Ministry on October 6.
"The Iskander-M missile system of the Russian Armed Forces launched a missile strike on the unloading site of a container ship with ammunition in the Yuzhny port in the village of Noviye Belyary in the Odessa region," the department said in a statement.
It is noted that the strike was carried out during unloading, which is why the footage shows the detonation of ammunition that was delivered from Europe.
Earlier that day, it was reported that drone operators from the Sever group destroyed combat drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region.
iz.ru/1770303/2024-10-06/vs-rf-unichtozhili-iskanderom-sudno-s-boepripasami-vsu-v-portu-odesskoi-oblasti
Posted by: guest | Oct 6 2024 20:47 utc | 95
Naive @ 94
The situation for the ukronazis is really very, very bad considering the number of "comments" (aka lies) posted here by several agents provocateurs.
Bet one could plot some sort of graph of MoA troll spikes to AFU fails and find a solid correlation. I know why they bother but I don't know why so relentless except that relentlessness, the mindless type, is an imprinted nazi characteristic, like a very dumb dog that'll chase a stick off a cliff.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 20:50 utc | 96
"was there ever any doubt about Ukraine's fate? Israelis are moving en mass to Ukraine"
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WTF
These pictures are from an annual pilgrimage, held every year, to the grave of a rabbi
The Polish-Ukrainian Yiddish people forged by the rabbis (over time and with the help of the Church of Rome) come from Poland-Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus
Posted by: Simon | Oct 6 2024 21:00 utc | 97
Naive @ 94
The situation for the ukronazis is really very, very bad considering the number of "comments" (aka lies) posted here by several agents provocateurs.
b seems a very late '80s internet kind of guy, I don't care much about the pre HTML aspect of this site but appointing a volunteer or two as moderators is necessary. If no wants to fine, but there does seem to be peeps up for it.
I'm being rhetorical when I compare the NAFO trolls to the kind of dog you need to beat over the head, every time, to get him to let go of the tennis ball, if the goal is data gathering they don't seem to have the brains to not swamp the site with noise, the skid row paid in free fentanyl employees probably don't get it, and the not much better management is lazy and inattentive. A low budget operation. Should we be grateful or insulted?
Otherwise the goal is to simply wear this forum down, chase off more and more of the regulars, overwhelm informed discourse with obnoxious crap that fakes relevance, prevent more mainstream sites from linking here, dissuade anyone stumbling in looking for insight, and make MoA wither away.
When the shit hits the fan or they sound the charge for WW3 they'll shut MoA down anyway.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 21:18 utc | 98
@1917 68
You are so right.
Putin is a poser coward with no connection with reality .while his Anglo enemies say "all options are on the table, Putin says all vague retribution but nothing concrete on the table.his red lines are a joke
No guts. Russia chickening out.
Lavrov and Putin putting pressure on Assad in order to please Americans.president Putin says that in Syria mission accomplished!
http://tass.com/defense/895323
22/8/2016
No mission is NOT complete. Russia like in february 2016, is fleeing again just because americans objected to russian using Hamadan air field while russia had no guts to tell americans not to use Syrian air space uninvited. That is the difference-russia has no mental guts.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 6 2024 21:24 utc | 99
^
I wanted to quote this, musta forgot to hit copy:
Naive @ 89
I didn't know that it was possible to post outright lies here without being banned. Too bad.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 6 2024 21:26 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Question: Are there any more fortified cities and towns west of Uglidar which could stall a Russian "Big Arrow" drive?
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 6 2024 14:44 utc | 1