Ukraine - The Real Story Of High Disability Numbers
Like others here to follow Simplicius' substack Situation Reports on the war Ukraine. While at times lengthy and speculative they provide a good summary and dozens of sources.
Yesterday Simplicius tweeted :
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771 - 21:18 UTC · Oct 15, 2024Did Zelensky's wife just admit AFU losses? 300k disabled forming 15-20% of total WIA would be 1.5M wounded. And 1.5M WIA forming 3:1 to 5:1 ratio to KIA should make for 300-500k KIA.
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The quoted tweet is wrong though and deserves a correction.
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Simplicius is quoting Olena Zelenska (Олена Зеленська @ZelenskaUA), the wife of the (former) president of Ukraine. Yesterday Zelenska indeed tweeted about disabilities in Ukraine but the quoted tweet, about 3 million Ukrainians with disabilities, has since been deleted. (It has also been quoted elsewhere, so we do know that it did existed.)
The cited 'news' of 3 million Ukrainian's with disabilities is not news. It had been officially announced on September 19 2023:
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 23:59 UTC · Sep 19, 2023At least 300,000 people, primarily military, became disabled during #RussiaUkraineWar: "During the year and a half of the full-scale invasion, the number of Ukrainians with disabilities increased by 300,000. Previously, 2.7 million people with disabilities lived in Ukraine, and now this figure has reached 3 million. This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy." https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2023/09/19/256633/
Now, thirteen month later, the real number will be much higher. But the astonishing increase in the number of officially disabled people in Ukraine is only slightly related to the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. It is simply an expression of the corruption typical for the Ukrainian government and its wider society.
Even completely healthy men in Ukraine are eager to be declared disabled because it allows them to escape military service. To achieve that status huge amounts of bribes are paid to the relevant commissions and doctors.
A recent Starna piece took a deeper look into this (edited machine translations):
Corruption schemes in MSEC. Who receives millions of disability payments?
The number of corruption scandals surrounding Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSEC) has significantly increased in Ukraine. When searching the apartments of medical experts, law enforcement officers find huge million-dollar stashes in foreign currency, and MSEC members with modest salaries are found to have expensive real estate, including abroad, and businesses registered for close relatives.Strana found out how the MSEC's corruption schemes work.
There are three official degrees of disabilities in Ukraine. The commission decides, with the help of medical expert testimony, under which category a person falls. Bribes are paid for the various degrees. A temporary disability status is cheaper but has to be renewed every year, a permanent one is more expensive.
According to Strana's sources in the police, after the outbreak of the war, a peculiar price list for assigning disabilities to potentially mobilized men appeared in the MSEC.The first group – from 8 to 10 thousand dollars, the second - 7 to 8 thousand, the third - from 5 thousand up. The amount of bribes varies depending on the region, and most of them were taken by MSEC members in large cities. Part of the bribes - from 500 to a thousand dollars - went to intermediaries who found those who wanted it.
The most popular diseases for fictitious assignment of disability groups were neuropsychiatric, brain and musculoskeletal diseases.
However fake assignments of disability groups cannot be carried out without the support of "related parties" - trusted doctors in specialized state clinics and diagnostic centers - radiologists, magnetic resonance imaging specialists. To assign a disability group, you need grounds in the form of a serious diagnosis with a medical history and conclusions of doctors. Therefore, the bribes had to be shared, but the main share, up to 70 percent of the amount, remained to MSEC members.
After the entry into force of the law on tougher mobilization, disability prices have risen sharply. And now disability "costs" from 10 to 20 thousand dollars.
There are two other categories where bribes are flowing.
People who have to care for a disabled relative are also excepted from military service. Men who have an elderly mother do seek to have her disability status increased to gain an exception for themselves:
The amount of bribes for granting the right to deferral to relatives of disabled people is slightly less. From 6 to 10 thousand dollars. The scheme of this kind is quite simple – for a bribe, a previously fully capable disabled person of the first or second group receives the status of a person in need of care. After that, the disabled person points to the person who is ready to provide him with care. Next, the MSEC issues a document on caring for a disabled person and, on the basis of such a document, the man receives a deferral in the mobilization office
The huge increase of the number of Ukrainians with disability status is thus not a consequence of people wounded due to the war. Their number probably does not exceed the number of disabled people who die over the years. The reason for the increase is the systemic corruption in Ukraine which can seemingly be found in any government office. There is also corruption involved in gaining such lucrative government positions.
The 300,000+ additionally disabled may well have paid an average of $7,500 to gain that status. This sums up to $2.25 billion that have been distributed within the system.
In general, we are talking about huge corruption flows in the tens of millions of dollars received by corrupt officials of MSEC, which are structurally part of the system of the Ministry of Security of Ukraine.According to the source of Strana in the MSEC, part of this money is transferred by the heads of commissions to their superiors-functionaries of the Ministry of Health.
Therefore, the amount of bribes for positions in the MEC after the war also went through the roof - from 20 thousand dollars for a member of the commission to 100 thousand dollars for the post of head of the inter-district MEC.
The disabilities numbers, which Simplicius is using to estimate the number of Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the war, do tell a story. But it is only tangentially related to the number of people who really get wounded.
Posted by b on October 16, 2024 at 10:48 UTC | Permalink
next page »🇺🇦Volodymyr Zelensky presented his "victory plan" , with which he has recently traveled around Europe and the United States. Its main provisions:1. Inviting Ukraine to NATO even before the end of the war .
2. Continuation of operations on Russian territory and lifting of restrictions on strikes on its territory . Joint shooting down of Russian aircraft with partners, expansion of the use of Ukrainian drones and missiles; access to partners' intelligence.
3. Deployment of a “comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” on the territory of Ukraine.
4. Development of Ukraine's strategic-economic potential and strengthening of sanctions against the Russian Federation. Europe and the USA can start extracting and protecting Ukrainian resources, otherwise Russia will seize them .
5. The US contingent in Europe after the war will be replaced by Ukrainian military personnel , using their experience to strengthen the defense of NATO and Europe.
It should be noted that starting from the very first point, this plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch, is simply unrealizable, that is, it represents a banal declaration of desires, which Ukraine’s allies have simply disowned.
https://t.me/intelslava/68476
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2024 11:00 utc | 2
🧩🇺🇦🧩Ze's VICTORY PLANThe plan will allow the war to be ended no later than next year, the plan is urgent, otherwise Putin will become stronger in 2025, the plan depends on partners, the plan preserves the "World Order Based on Rules", future wars around the world depend on the plan, the plan is needed because Ukraine is at war with the Russian Federation, the DPRK, Iran, and China is helping, blah-blah-blah...
1️⃣Immediate invitation to NATO. It is an invitation, not accession, and Putin will immediately get scared.
❌Refused in Vilnius and during Ze's recent visits to the US and the EU;
2️⃣Defense:
🔹More weapons from partners, including long-range ones;
🔹Strengthening air defense;
🔹Shooting down NATO air defense drones and missiles over Ukraine;
🔹lifting restrictions on long-range strikes on military targets throughout the territory of the Russian Federation;
🔹return of the war to the territory of the Russian Federation, continuation and expansion of the war on the territory of the Russian Federation;
❌Also already refused. Biden clearly stated that he will avoid direct military confrontation with the Russian Federation. Scholz refused, Macron deflated, Britain will not pull chestnuts out of the fire without the rest;
3️⃣Deterrence. NATO is deploying some kind of super-powerful (NOT nuclear) weapons on the territory of Ukraine. If Putin refuses to accept the "peace plan", all these weapons are used against the Russian Federation.
❌This is a belated attempt by Zelensky to turn the current Russian ultimatum upside down. Now the Russian Federation threatens to respond in case of mass use of long-range weapons. The West "heard" this ultimatum and the change in the Russian nuclear doctrine. Zelensky wants the same option for himself. WITHOUT a chance from the start;
4️⃣Ukraine's mineral resources in exchange for their protection. Zelensky proposes to regulate the issue of NATO protection, investment, extraction and use of Ukrainian mineral resources worth trillions of dollars (including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite) with a SECRET APPENDIX for the benefit of Ukraine🤡, the United States and "some countries";
5️⃣After the war, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can ensure the security of the European continent. Zelensky proposes replacing expensive American troops in Europe with experienced Ukrainian Armed Forces. It's convenient for him to get rid of veterans.
🧩The last two points are about the new approaches of the United States to Ukraine. Zelensky makes it clear that he agrees with the more cynical attitude of the United States towards our country. He is not against Ukraine being perceived not as a state, but as a storehouse of mineral resources + mercenaries. He doesn't care about the people, the economy, the country's prospects - just leave me in power. Just like in Syria. The US pumps almost all of Syria's oil and has resigned itself to Assad's rule👌
It's just not clear why the US needs such "expensive" resources and mercenaries. Africa has all of this without the first four points and the threat of a nuclear apocalypse ☝️
The ending about unity: "We are not fighting each other. The enemy is the Russian Federation. There are no enemies inside Ukraine." Ze knows that the oligarchs and the remnants of our political class understand that he is the main reason for the continuation of the war. They will soon begin to unite. Without him, there will be no war. That's why this warning was given.
What the partners can really give is strengthening air defense, increasing the supply of shells. But this is not a plan and not peace🤷♂️
Total: as we warned, Ze once again filled the agenda with "strenuous" words about peace. We are leaving🧩
https://t.me/ZeRada1/21925
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2024 11:02 utc | 3
Ukraine’s Prosthetics Revolution: Nova Ukraine Supports Medical Education and InnovationApril 25, 2024
All across Ukraine — in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Odesa and Lviv, and many other small and big cities — prosthetics centers keep emerging due to the ever-increasing demand. Since russia’s invasion in 2014, there has been a massive need for medical attention in Ukraine, prompting rapid advancements in the country’s prosthetics industry. The Protez Hub platform is one of Nova Ukraine’s closest partners in leading systemic changes in Ukraine’s prosthetics and orthotics industry.
...
Creating this network of prosthetics and orthotics specialists becomes a more pressing task with each passing day. As russia continues to target Ukrainian civilians and medical facilities, at least 35,000 people are waiting for some kind of prosthetic at this very moment. ...
continues ==> https://novaukraine.org/ukraines-prosthetics-revolution-nova-ukraine-supports-medical-education-and-innovation/
Prosthetics is another growth industry in Ukraine.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 11:05 utc | 4
Now even captured Ukrainian Stooge Media are asking the same question we've been asking here at the bar:
Where are the F16s?
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-russia-fighter-jets-1968602
Bwahaha!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 11:25 utc | 5
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2024 11:00 utc | 2
A complete joke.
1. Won't happen
2. Mostly pipe dreams; there is no way for NATO to project air power into Ukraine; all the good air defense sent to Israel; where are the F16s?
3. Vague gobbledy-gook.
4. Good luck with that. Sanctions already failed and made Russia stronger. Lots of coal mines have been seized so get used to it. Get ready to lose assets, Blackrock. The big coke plant in Pokrovsk is next. Suck it.
5. There won't be anything left of the UAF after 2025. It's a shattered, spent force. And even if there are a few thousand 55-year-olds left, they'll all have PTSD and missing limbs. Maybe Zelensky is saving the 18-25 year olds for "Europes army", though.
5.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 11:35 utc | 6
Thanks b.
South Vietnam redux in terms of scope & scale of corruption ... French thence US along with allied vassals ... probably even worse, in 'The BanderaLands'.
@ Down South | Oct 16 2024 11:00 utc | 2
Delusional. Da 'Plan' is stillborn ... 'Tis dead in the water.
I suspect that the disability figures in ukieland may be more closely related to those injured in battle than b says.
We know that since the onset of war in Ukraine that many millions of ukies have left that forsaken nation. It is difficult to believe among all those millions at least a representative number weren't disabled, meaning that 2,700,000 figure for disabled in ukieland should have declined by several hundred thousand, but it hasn't, rather it has increased by 300,000. That says to me even taking into account the thousands lucky enough to have contacts and the money to pay off the team of corrupt officials to jag a disability ticket may be as as many as the number of disabled who emigrated, though, personally I doubt that, leaving us with a number of permanently disabled by the war back up at around 300,000.
I have no axe to grind for simplicus who in a couple of his pieces I have read appears to back the zionists in the ME.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 16 2024 11:55 utc | 9
: Debsisdead | Oct 16 2024 11:55 utc | 9
could you please point me to the articles where Simplicus was pro zionist..
Posted by: dp | Oct 16 2024 12:14 utc | 10
Meh ... imho the WIA/KIA ratio will be low for the Kokhols in this conflict for several reasons.
First what is true for both sides is the depth of the combat-zone, with long range arti/drones warfare, any "technical" is a moving target and MASH units works is ... complicated. Then the nature of the wounds ; the 3 biggest killers are arti , drones , mines during this conflict : so shrapnel, concussions and internal damage must be commons and those are the least easy things to stabilize on a front-line.
Then the corruption in 404 add several layers of difficulties to that already grim picture. The first one being the quality and the quantities of medical supplies given to the troops, the the basic medical knowledge of the average grunt after a week of training is easy to evaluate : 0 , then take into account the quality/quantity of the medical personnel that didn't flee the country at first gunshot, add to it the under-reporting of KIA/MIA by CO that pocket the salaries for themselves, the number of active duty soldiers on the front-line with prosthetics is a new phenomenon right now because when you're given a 100HVR/mo pension for all your pains and wounds, lots of disabled people are going back to the front just to get something to eat.
All thing considered , it might be a good thing for banderast's army ... it's a common saying : an army is more "efficient" with dead than with wounded soldiers.
My 2 cents :)
Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 16 2024 12:15 utc | 11
Interlude:
Eric Clapton - Cocaine [Official Live Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdDhV45lYHU
JJ Cale, Eric Clapton (After Midnight & Call me the Breeze)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WUeOEkl270
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 16 2024 12:19 utc | 12
Summarizing Zelensky's "new" plan: Same plan as old plan.
(Our war is your war.)
Bobblehead Biden and neocons--"Their war is our war."
Bibi's standard plan "Our war is your war."
Bobblehead Biden and neocons--"Their war is our war."
Got it? Furthermore, bobblehead voters are "free" to legitimize their favorite bobblehead candidates on November 5.
Posted by: JohnH | Oct 16 2024 12:23 utc | 13
Good catch b,
I’m impressed that so many khokols don’t want to throw themselves into the mincer as opposed to the propaganda the mainstream tells us, the Russian speakers hating their Slav brothers.
The ones who leave or try. Not so sure about the ones who pay the corrupt to stay out.
Their whole system stinks just like the collective waste and it’s Direct Sales methodology.
Commission based earnings. It has taken over the U.K. too since the 80’s.
Anyway comparatively- a report earlier today of how Ukrops spoofed messages to Crimeans supposedly calling them up urgently! Including a load of elderly guys.
They rushed down to the miltary offices within minutes - the wives helping and getting to the shops to buy them supplies! The Dads Army spirit . The miltary officer woken up had to explain that it was a prank and they should have checked by calling the office first! The volunteers said check what? The call was sent out urgently and they responded immediately as any patriot would!
The spoofers end up with eggs on face for thinking the Russians would behave like the khokols!
Give them all a medal for jumping out of bed and responding to a call up by text!
——————-
On a side note one has to wonder wtf is going to happen to the Shelenskis?
At this rate they are heading for the fate of Nicolae and Elena Ceaușescu on 25 December 1989 - merry Xmas!
Apparently they were caught and a execution was arranged immediately. And at the last moment a supposed trial. A lawyer was appointed and given 10 minutes in the kangaroo court to meet his ‘clients’ with the execution squad already ready outside - ‘With so little time to prepare any defence, he tried to explain to them that their best hope of avoiding the death sentence was to plead insanity. The Ceaușescus brushed off the idea; according to Teodorescu, "When I suggested it, Elena in particular said it was an outrageous set-up. They felt deeply insulted...They rejected my help after that." ‘
Minutes later they were convicted and taken out and shot.
This Elena ought to consider taking the insanity option - her hubby the coke snorting deluded green gnome would easily be declared mad. I can’t see how else they can escape the fate of dictators past.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 16 2024 12:33 utc | 14
Kursk region.
The villages of Viktorovka and Staraya Sorochina, as well as the village of Lyzhaki (southeast of Leonidovo) were liberated.
Posted by: guest | Oct 16 2024 12:35 utc | 15
Posted by: guest | Oct 16 2024 12:35 utc | 15
Thanks for that info. Looks like there is now a big pocket in the NW pinched off. Another huge loss for NATO.
The Kursk incursion is like a tumor shrinking after getting hit with radiation and targeted chemo drugs.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 12:40 utc | 16
Not sure the post is correct.
"At least 300,000 people, primarily military, became disabled during #RussiaUkraineWar: 'During the year and a half of the full-scale invasion, the number of Ukrainians with disabilities increased by 300,000. Previously, 2.7 million people with disabilities lived in Ukraine, and now this figure has reached 3 million. This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy.' https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2023/09/19/256633/ Boldface added.
Military disabilities are not evidence of corruption aimed to excuse the purchaser of a disability certificate from military service. Given the need legal technicalities, faking a medical history that predates 2022 seems to me to be required. As a result it seems possible (likely?) that the 2.7 million figures has illicitly folded in many cases that allegedly date back before the invasion.
And the aim of the ministry was not to admit the real number of casualties, but to deny the real number of draft evasions.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 16 2024 12:47 utc | 17
K. Harris is menatally below the levels of Joe Biden, but anyway according to US media she can get at least 40% of the popular votes.
How is that possible? Is that normal?
I would say, Americans feel that the big war is more probable with K. Harris then with D. Trump. And they just love the war, they love "good kill".
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 13:04 utc | 18
Reuters/wires:
... Western countries have long accused North Korea of sending weapons to help Russia fight in Ukraine.On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the North was also sending personnel, becoming effectively a participant in the war.
Asked about that issue, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said there were signs of the North's enhanced material support for Russia "which is being felt on the battlefield", but that Washington was still evaluating the reports...
Oh ? Well, the US/UK/France, 5(+)-Eyes and majority members of NATO/EU have sent military personnel to The Banderalands, and therefore are, De Jure, co-belligerants, are they not ? Nah, nah, nah, only when Empire says so! FFS.
I would think major disabled would be the majority of WIA. If they're not disabled, then why not go back to the front? I guess there are injuries to internal organs that might stop continued action. But just bleeding or shock? Stabilize, heal, send back for more combat.
In the words of Colonel Savage, "If a man is physically capable of flying his plane, he goes back into combat. Paint them with iodine and mark them duty, Doc."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGEekUoEQUM
Minor injuries that either allow continued fighting or allow recovery in the rear don't belong in the attrition WIA statistics (as the troops are still available for fighting). Just put a Purple Heart in the service jacket. And keep them in the fight. (Or return them for more after healing.)
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 16 2024 13:43 utc | 20
@ b
Bringing this guy to your attention .... lovely turn of phrase ... and realist on The Resistance etc
Bullet Discipline Vs. Bullet Diarrhea
Neat use of the Ali-Foreman 'rope a dope' strategy ......
'The point of this strategy, short of dying, is tiring your opponent out. A people's army can reproduce people, but capitalist oppression must reproduce capital or collapse. Which gets expensive. Which becomes economically impossible. Which becomes environmentally impossible. The entire premise of America is that they have infinite money, infinite power, and infinite planet, but they don't. All empires must fall, all currencies become past, and all power runs out. Missile defenses made White Empire feel like a superpower, but now they're just a regular power, and waning fast. This last paroxysm of violence is in fact the end of what I call America's Long Retreat. America has invaded many places since World War II, and retreated from everyone. They have a 100% retreat record. The Americans will fuck you up, but then they will fuck off. It's just a matter of your fighters staying on the ropes, taking brutal, genocidal, blows to the body politic.'
[...] America is currently waging genocide in Palestine, proxy war against Russia, and trying to start shit with China. Meanwhile, it never had peace with North Korea, just an armistice. At some point, something's got to give. Realistically, they can only reload THAAD battery by unloading somewhere else. America is writing cheques its deindustrialized ass can't cash. It's arrogance on top of absurdity. Americans have treated missile defense like it gives them the power to be infinitely offensive, and it doesn't. They're throwing Rolexes at Casios, and the Casios are winning. As the Taliban said, you may have the watches, but we have the time. The Resistance has bullet discipline and the Empire has bullet diarrhea. Inshallah, in our lifetimes, the Resistance will win.
https://indi.ca/bullet-discipline-vs-bullet-diarrhea/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 16 2024 13:46 utc | 21
Prosthetics is another growth industry in Ukraine.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 11:05 utc | 4
And it gives us another data point.
Mid 2023 they were producing 2.600 prosthesis a month.
That would probably say that in the calm period it was enough.
We could say that by the end of 2023 that would probably amount to 60.000-65.000 amputees, as the first 9 months of 2024 were as deadly as the whole previous period, 120.000-130.000 amputees by end of september 2024.
With a typical 5% amputation rate per WIA, 2.400.000-2.600.000 WIA (not different people though) with a 1 to 6 KIA around 400.000-430.000 KIA, same for permanently WIA (of which 120k-130k amputees)
As by september 2023 there would be 180.000 to 190.000 honest to god WIA/disabled, the additional 120.000-130.000 would probably be the top 3% of the theoretically available who can pay the huge amounts asked (per capita gdp is less than 5.000 USD)
My 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 13:47 utc | 22
guest, 15:
Divgen has a miserable record of over-promising RFA advances. DPA (Wyatt) recently tried tracking/using their updates and there were, very quickly, immediate failures to confirm or outright confirmation of the opposite. Even those who are relatively pro RFA (and sometimes over promise) like Suriyak and Rybar say that Divgen is full of it.
But...if you're looking for rah rah porn...good source for that.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 16 2024 13:48 utc | 23
@ANonymous
"Rah-rah porn" is not a bad description of the Deepstate maps (under contract with Ukrainian regime) that you rely on in your daily spam.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 13:55 utc | 24
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 13:47 utc | 22
Of course the amputee ratio can be half that and other numbers twice as much. I don't know how much of prosthesis needs are covered by imports, and we don't know how many of the original 2.700.000 disabled left the country or the planet.
This is probably a floor on casualties, not a roof.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 14:00 utc | 25
"North Korea providing troops to Russia" is priming us for the upcoming Biden - Shultz - starmer - Macron meeting after which it MAY be announced that the 4 countries will provide troops to Ukraine.....WATCH THIS SPACE
Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 16 2024 14:13 utc | 26
@ Don Firineach | Oct 16 2024 13:46 utc | 21
Meanwhile, it never had peace with North Korea, just an armistice.
(1) There is NO de Jure, NO de facto, Armistice, NO Peace Treaty.
(2) Hostilities/belligerent status, de jure state of War, Never Ceased.
(3) All belligerents, as at July 27, 1953, nations on both sides, (including China(PRC)) are still, de jure, at WAR.
(4) UN/UNSC authorized 'United Nations Command' (UNC or UN Command) is still extant, funded, in situ, active & operant, starting WEF 4 July 1950 through to present (~74 years & 3 months).
(5) UNC forever under the direct command appointment of a US Flag Officer, four-star general/equivalent, as Commander UNC/CFC/USFK.
(6) UNC/CFC/USFK is a sub-unified command of US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM).
Rather convenient should Empire ever truly pivot to Asia, & re-commence, without notice, active open hostilities. Same for DPRK & PRC ...
Think on it ... just sayin'.
Along a similar line of reasoning... Are there any data on the number of transgender women in Ukraine, and has that number increased over the past 2+ years?
If a man's bribe claiming to be disabled fails, maybe a bribe claiming to be a woman might succeed? Apparently women are not targeted in forceful conscription/draft recruitment drives... at least not yet.
(anything's worth a try if you would rather not get yourself killed for a cause you don't agree with)
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Oct 16 2024 14:35 utc | 28
The Simpliciis analysis is weak for a number of reasons beyond taking into account the systemic increases in disability due to exemptions.
First though, exemptions are increasingly being disregarded as acceptable for avoiding being conscripted: the corruption runs the other way as well. Bribes are paid to avoid service but the conscriptors have to fill quotas also. It would be surprising if bribes were not being paid to overlook legitimate disability or other exemptions, for example, for the poor who cannot be milked for cash.
The WIA to KIA ratio is also likely flawed because it is quite clear that Ukraine does not have Vietnam era aerial evac of wounded to field hospitals. Those who make it to field disposals have to buy their way into treatment- and there is no reason to believe the medical supply procurement is not also riddled with corruption. This results in a practically American triage system - and so it is quite likely that even WW2 WIA/KIA ratios may be optimistic.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 16 2024 14:36 utc | 29
@ c1ue | Oct 16 2024 14:36 utc | 29
This results in a practically American triage system - and so it is quite likely that even WW2 WIA/KIA ratios may be optimistic.
Very valid point. Roll back to WWII or even earlier equivalent ... they primarily operate railroad/train Field/Evac (ahem) hospitals, which have little more than BN/BDE Aid Station facilities, though no serious trauma, nor surgery facilities/resources/staff.(IIRC)
@ Outraged | Oct 16 2024 14:34 utc | 27
Thanks for precision in update ...
I try not to think for too long on the sheer insanity of Empire attack on DPRK & PRC - notwithstanding the fact that this is given 'serious' thought and planning in the bowels of the Empire right now ...
That said, the DPRK is a useful foil for both PRC and RF - and RF providing military/technological know-how to DPRK must be really p1ssing off said carriers of such bowels.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 16 2024 15:02 utc | 31
With a typical 5% amputation rate per WIA
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 13:47 utc | 22
---
That amputation rate requires the competent application of adequate tourniquets. I've read that Ukraine has an extremely high occurrence of amputations, for "reasons".
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 15:02 utc | 32
thanks b..
is ukraine corrupt?? it is... does stevie want to suggest it isn't? lol... but because it isn't all out in the open and transparent, some will claim it doesn't exist... is washington corrupt?? as the bastion of freedom and democracy, how can it be?? lolol...
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 15:03 utc | 33
I can't believe it...
there is actually a blog arguing about the number of cripples caused by war...
Do you even realize what you are arguing about here...what human suffering?
B is pretending...however irrelevant and irrelevant to the topic, and can rely 100% on the fact that the crowd (you) will pounce on the topic.
Who cares how many disabled people the war leaves behind...if you want to see such suffering live and know its consequences, study Germany 1945 -?
.
Instead of making calculations and probabilities, everyone just assumes the worst: NO ONE knows!
.
Don't you see what a sad bunch you make?
I don't have to put up with this. In my 70+ years (without having to experience war myself), I've seen enough suffering in life, experienced enough cripples from World War II live!
Posted by: ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:05 utc | 34
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 16 2024 14:34 utc | 27
So many mistakes, The Korean Armistice Agreement, signed on July 27, 1953 is in place.
Current United Nations Command (UNC) is under General Kim Seung-ho, a South Korean army officer.
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 16 2024 14:54 utc | 30
Normal ratios are for every 60 hits you get 10 killed, 50 wounded (of which 3 amputees), of those 50, 10 are permanently hors de combat, 40 are sanitary WIA and in due time will return to the front.
Some say 10 to 40, but even WWI holds well with 1 in 6 KIA
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 15:14 utc | 35
ossi - you are taking something from this that ain't there.. no one wants to see others suffer... plain and simple..
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 15:15 utc | 36
@ Don Firineach | Oct 16 2024 15:02 utc | 31
All good compadre. :)
A personal bugbear of mine, as few realize the true status of re the actual situ which Empire deliberately sought & has misrepresented/indoctrinated/propagandized ever since. Furthermore, a crucial, Key belligerent, the State of South Korea, nor even it's Field Commander, ever signed the illegitimate, battlefield commanders(only)(-1) temporary field cease fire, pending ... never to proceed ... further. Hence ?
Peace Salaam Shalom
Posted by: ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:05 utc | 34
Sorry ossi, but amputations were first discussed in the summer of 2023 by the WSJ and I think I was the first to show that it was good for a tangential analysis for KIA.
Using the 20.000 to 50.000 amputees mentioned at the time I mentioned half a million to a million and some KIA (on more stringent amputee to KIA ratios)
It is tragic, but if things go full nazi germany then you'll end up with only half a million AFU who fought that haven't lost something (physical) in the SMO (and 3 million and a half who were unfit to start with). Tinder will have to add a section on disabilities.
There is no disrespect, only disrespect was from Z and his ilk that decided to throw millions into the meat grinder for a forsworn conclusion.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 15:28 utc | 38
ossi - you are taking something from this that ain't there.. no one wants to see others suffer... plain and simple..
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 15:15 utc | 36
.
.
.
Cripples and prostheses, that's the opening topic or am I mistaken?
The argument is about the probability of the numbers... and that's enough for me, I'm out until the next possibly useful topic that B suggests
.
.
.
As a human being, that's not my issue...why?
Because I know what war means, because I'm horrified when I see grenades falling from drones and the helpless soldier underneath running for his life.
YOUR future cripple, the number of which is being argued about here...
BY PEOPLE WHO HAVE NEVER HEARD A GRENADE WHISTLE OVER THEIR HEADS
Posted by: ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:31 utc | 39
@ ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:31 utc | 39
thanks.. i get it... the thing is no one wants to see this, no matter who they are...
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 15:35 utc | 40
@vargas | Oct 16 2024 13:04 utc | 18
K. Harris is menatally below the levels of Joe Biden, but anyway according to US media she can get at least 40% of the popular votes.Yes, since 50% of the popular votes are from people with lower than average IQ.
How is that possible? Is that normal?
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 16 2024 15:37 utc | 41
The commonplace estimate is that for everyone killed there will be three wounded. I am going to speculate that of every three wounded, one will have a serious disability. Thus if we suppose it is 300K disabled it would be 300K killed. That would be a total of 600K, half of them of diminished or non existent net value in the domestic economy and the other half dead.
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 16 2024 15:38 utc | 42
@ Newbie | Oct 16 2024 15:14 utc | 35
Such assertive, dismissive, unfounded, ignorant BS. Wrong, both counts. Overcome by dissonance ?
Current UNC commander is US Army four-star general and infantry officer, Paul Joseph LaCamera, born 4 September 1963. Ahem ?
You will NOT be able to prove your assertion/s: Korean Armistice Agreement, signed on July 27, 1953 is in place. False
Most assuredly, indubitably, quite the opposite.
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 16 2024 15:21 utc | 37
The PRC is completely off the hook, the PLA was never there, only the People's Volunteer Army, and just in case anyone had any doubts China normalized relations and signed a peace treaty with South Korea in 1992 and withdrew from the Military Armistice Commission in 1994.
And it was SK that didn't want to sign, initially, the armistice (and got overruled by UNC), but it was Dulles that later blocked a final solution.
As for RF, the original situation is moot, the current military agreement with PRoK provides for mutual military aid in case of aggression.
If we want to be clear the armistice is void since at least 1958 when the US placed nukes in the south. You can't breech the no new weapons more than that.
Now, with that breech from the US, it is disputable that it can invoke the UNC authority. It can try but wouldn't fly.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 15:47 utc | 44
14 - The judge in the case, an army officer, was promoted afterwards but then committed suicide.
Posted by: Waldorf | Oct 16 2024 15:48 utc | 45
Such assertive, dismissive, unfounded, ignorant BS. Wrong, both counts. Overcome by dissonance ?
Current UNC commander is US Army four-star general and infantry officer, Paul Joseph LaCamera, born 4 September 1963. Ahem ?
You will NOT be able to prove your assertion/s: Korean Armistice Agreement, signed on July 27, 1953 is in place. False
Most assuredly, indubitably, quite the opposite.
Posted by: outraged | Oct 16 2024 15:43 utc | 43
I stand corrected on the Paul Joseph LaCamera issue. You are right, I was wrong. Furthermore I shall formally state that it has been so since the start.The command has always been in US hands (and worse, only the US can decide to end the UNC as the UN has no authority over it)
As for the armistice it existed but some of the issues I later raised @44 and if you go through there you can say it is no longer in place (though the persistence of the 38th parallel DMZ might suggest otherwise)
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 16:09 utc | 46
@ Newbie | Oct 16 2024 15:47 utc | 44
@ Newbie | Oct 16 2024 16:09 utc | 46
46, accepted. Nothing you've posted disproves any of my posted (1)-(6).
Would you like references to the formal appointment, including via SK media release ? How could you get that so wrong ? UNC subordinate deputy commander appointment reserved for a nominated officer from ?
A primary key belligerent, the sovereign State of SK, not even its field commander, signed any battlefield commanders, temporary field truce. No de facto, no de jure, armistice, nor peace treaty re 'The War'.
Nothing signed by ALL, I say again, ALL, belligerents by Head of State nor credentialed Plenipotentiary. A subsequent agreement between PRC & SK, has nil affect re ALL the other parties re status, and has nil effect re continuing, de jure, state of War, as detailed, in continuance since 1950.
Most upset. Why ?
Outraged | Oct 16 2024 16:25 utc | 47--
Relevant to the Korea topic is this essay by Marat Khairullen, "South Korea - The New Dill". One addition from me: RoK is the sole manufacturer of the Paladin SPG and has sent them and its ammo to Ukraine.
K. Harris is menatally below the levels of Joe Biden, but anyway according to US media she can get at least 40% of the popular votes.
How is that possible? Is that normal?Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 13:04 utc | 18
Next month Casio is selling a "robo-pet": https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/11/24268063/casio-robot-pet-moflin
If you paid the media enough money, you could probably get a sizable percentage of the vote for that toy.
The psychological damage just from the product is not trivial, either. Japan, for one, is toast ...
Posted by: pessoa | Oct 16 2024 17:02 utc | 50
@ karlof1 | Oct 16 2024 16:46 utc | 49
a few of us shared that link yesterday on the NK thread...
@ hey everyone - karlof1 has a great substack page that you ought to sign up to.. see the link under his name.. there was a great post yesterday discussing the importance of germany in the grand scheme of things..
@ outraged..
thanks for your posts...
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 17:02 utc | 51
Next month Casio is selling a "robo-pet"
Posted by: pessoa | Oct 16 2024 17:02 utc | 50
---
nope. Nope. NOPE!
That is dystopia right there.
People need to spend more time with animals. Before it is too late.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 17:09 utc | 52
"Zelensky said the ( peace) plan consists of eight points, three of which are classified. First and foremost, the Ukrainian leader demanded that Kiev receive an invitation to immediately join NATO, a move the bloc has been reluctant to entertain, citing fears of being dragged into the conflict with Russia."
clearly the us/uk doesn't want to end this war, and they have this bozo to prove it.. this guys time is very limited as i see it..
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 17:12 utc | 53
Posted by: pessoa | Oct 16 2024 17:02 utc | 50
Do Americans Dream Of Electric Sheep?
Posted by: Caveman | Oct 16 2024 17:16 utc | 54
As a human being, that's not my issue...why?
Because I know what war means, because I'm horrified when I see grenades falling from drones and the helpless soldier underneath running for his life.
YOUR future cripple, the number of which is being argued about here...
BY PEOPLE WHO HAVE NEVER HEARD A GRENADE WHISTLE OVER THEIR HEADS
Posted by: ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:31 utc | 39
You are completely right.
Young men are being turned into crudely butchered meat for the demented delusions of victory by Z and his puppet master's.
And they refuse to halt.
This could have stopped two years ago much to Ukraine’s and Russian satisfaction.
And the butchers bill grows.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 16 2024 17:44 utc | 55
Posted by: jpc | Oct 16 2024 17:44 utc | 55
They could have not started it in 2014. Or the first try colored orange.
Posted by: lex talionis | Oct 16 2024 17:54 utc | 57
Just found another data point that agrees with my post @22
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2571753/middle-east
14.000 gaza amputees for 42.000 killed.
KIA = 3,333 X amputees
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 17:55 utc | 58
james | Oct 16 2024 17:02 utc | 51--
Thanks james. I must have missed that while working. And thanks for the shout-out!!
Posted by: ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:31 utc | 39
Anyone who glorifies war should just flick through a catalogue of facial templates used by WW1 surgeons, struggling to rebuild shattered bone and tissue. Also, don’t single out the grenade as the singular villain of the piece, any modern, kinetic, weapon is designed for to maximise damage to soft-tissue, be it the computer designed, pre-scoring on mortar bombs, to the plastic needles packed into an AGS-17 round. Even the humble FMJ round has the capability of causing wounds that require amputation, due to the large temporary wound-tracks they create.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 16 2024 17:58 utc | 60
USA policy has always been depopulation, wherever they go, whomever they come across.
Recently with Covid they even went after their own, especially those old useless eaters drawing benefits, like many at the Bar.
Posted by: qparker | Oct 16 2024 18:05 utc | 61
The Neo-Nazi movement is alive and well in Ukraine.
"Centuria, a paramilitary Azov youth movement, marked UPA day in Dnipro with a lecture about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. The speaker wore a t-shirt with the logo of the Black Metal group “m8181th” (“Hitler’s Hammer”). The clothes with this logo are trendy in the Azov movement.
The frontman of this band is Aleksey Levkin, an RDK fighter and a leader of the Russian Neo-Nazi group Wotan Jugend (WJ). This group is affiliated with the Azov movement and its military units – Azov Brigade Azov and 3rd Assault Brigade. On its social media, WJ posts different materials about these units (announcements, recruitment posters, interviews, news., etc.). Yurii Pavlyshyn-‘Dum’, the officer of the 3rd Assault Brigade, is a bass player of “m8181th”.
A substantial part of WJ’s media content aims at promoting racism, antisemitism, Nazi ideology, and other extremist ideas and practices. WJ praised far-right terrorists Timothy McVeigh and Anders Breivik as “heroes.” (See more on Bellingcat). This year, WJ paid tribute to Ian Stuart Donaldson, the founder of the neo-Nazi “Blood and Honor,” claiming that his death “became an irreparable loss for the entire White Resistance Movement."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 16 2024 18:06 utc | 62
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 16 2024 18:06 utc | 62
NSBM, National Socialist Black Metal, is alive and well. Satanic Warmaster from Finland comes to mind. The soundtrack for Ukraine.
Posted by: lex talionis | Oct 16 2024 18:12 utc | 63
Anyone think that China and DPRK are being proactive with their most recent military moves rather than reactive, i.e. they are being the aggressor? Until now reactive was the norm but maybe that's over? The global danger increases as Russia wins in the SMO not visa versa. It's time to start viewing everything differently, as Russia succeeds pressures will increase all around not lessen and Russia's allies will have to step forward as Russia moves forward. The escalation may now start coming from the other side.
Maybe the recent unannounced exercise that surrounded Taiwan and the border skirmishes on the Korean DMZ are a message to the USA, last call, let Russia bring this to an end, don't escalate in Ukraine or we'll give you the Asia Pacific fronts you appear to crave, right now, not in 2027 or 2030 or when you feel good and ready. You will be juggling Eastern Europe, Middle East, Taiwan, Korea, and your own economic collapse, all at once trying to keep it all from blowing up in your face.
Just throwing that out there.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 16 2024 18:18 utc | 64
@ karlof1 | Oct 16 2024 16:46 utc | 49
Thank you kindly, will bookmark & have a read. Hm, imposed obligation ... what the hell can I dig up of interest, you're not likely already aware of ? lol ;)
@ james, cheers, back at ya.
Too many screen pixels have been repeatedly snuffed out of existence. Apologies. Cheers
@ LightYearsFromHome | Oct 16 2024 18:18 utc | 64
Concur. Have been contemplating same for some time ... given indicators.
The further RF, PRC, DPRK ratchet up their own 'strategy of tension', they initiate & sustain, whilst the SMO continues, whilst Israel against, Hamas, Syria/Iraqi militias, Ansar Allah, Hezbollah, & especially Iran ... the further the evermore stretched & worn rubber band that is the naked, ordnance short, Empire/US & vassals is brought to breaking point, to fracturing.
On top of current events Korea/Taiwan/Japan(NO Peace Treaty)/Philippines, etc enter 'near' contestation. Especially if Empire trade shipping transit is constrained, as per Ansar Allah(Suez/Red Sea, Arabian Sea strait of An-Mandub(?) & throughout the South China Sea, possibly even restricted traffic by Indonesia re the Malacca straits due Israhell ... oh shit, what then ? Mckinder in reverse, whilst Empire is evermore over extended, critically weak & vulnerable on far too many fronts/theaters, short of war. Further economic/trade damage & insufficient combatant forces/ordnance to be everywhere, react/defend/oppose, everywhere, all at once. Wouldn't want to be a National Guardsman, forgotten in, Al-Tanf. Evermore anxious, nervous vassals ... ?
Just sayin' ...
From the briefing of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova (October 16, 2024):• There are two concentration camps on the territory of the Kursk region near the settlement of Oleshnya and in the area of the settlement of Yunakovka in the Sumy region of Ukraine. More than 1,100 people are being held there in inhumane conditions (including children, sick and seriously injured Russian citizens). Priests of the canonical UOC are also brought there.
* Prisoners of camps created in the image and likeness of Nazi Germany's concentration camps are subjected to daily physical and psychological violence.
machine translated
with map images ==> https://t.me/divgen/56312
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 18:49 utc | 66
Modern body armour saves lives but it doesn't save limbs so fewer soldiers are being caused life ending injuries to their brain and vital organs but a percentage of those who would have died from their injuries in other wars are losing limbs.
This isn't going to be a huge number ... maybe 2-5% as a number just pulled out the air it could be more but I doubt it's less and if you're talking about a million total casualties that's an increase of 20,000 to 50,000 with severe enough injuries to their limbs to be a complete writeoff as compared to older conflicts.
Another big contributor to the future hell that is Ukraine are the number of men suffering PTSD and shell shock. Ukraine is going to be left with a lost and crippled generation they won't have the money to support. I only hope the west is as generous to their rehabilitation and support as they were providing weapons but I doubt that very much.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 16 2024 18:58 utc | 67
There is an aspect of Ukrainian prosthetics little known. All false legs are up to four inches shorter than healthy opposites. This has the effect of restricting the recipient to walking in circles, thus limiting opportunity for fleeing the country and evading conscription.
From a military perspective, prosthetics are an extreme expedient in that the more false limbs a combatant has, the less likely he will suffer incapacitating injury - a false leg blown off can be soon replaced.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 16 2024 19:03 utc | 68
I paid my $8 and watched the documentary "The Other Side On Putin's Frontline" and fully understand why the Western establishment and its lackey media had a hissy fit about it. Not only does it humanize the Russians, and the people of the Donbass, but also ends up putting forward the Russian point of view very well. The plebs can't be allowed to see that!
Nicely argued b. This is why we come to the bar. One can only imagine how much money has been washed, paid in bribes, cycled into drug-running, gun-running, sex trafficking, intelligence peddling, etc etc in Ukraine since 1991. It must surely be pushing the trillion mark or more. Soros knows. 404 indeed.
Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 16 2024 19:11 utc | 70
Outraged | Oct 16 2024 14:54 utc | 30
As US air power grew in WW2, the US started getting people back to the States from both Europe and the Pacific:
"For a long time we had been flying litter ships, bringing back the wreckage of younger men whose marvelous triumph was breathing. In sharp contrast to the accommodations provided for the generals, these ships were arranged three and four litters high along both sides of the cabin and were always overcrowded. They stank of every elimination which can escape from the human body, but mostly they reeked of quick decay, shock, disinfectant, and blood. Yet none of this seemed to matter, neither the bottles hanging alongside the litters and connected by tubes to the occupants, nor the collapsed areas of blankets where limbs should have been, nor the astonished eyes of a hurt creature peering from a bundle of gauze. Litter ships were an innovation and a majority of the men in them were but a few hours out of combat. Almost before they had time to contemplate their personal disasters they were on the way home. Thus, in spite of wounds, their spirits were unbelievably high and a sort of ecstasy pervaded the whole ship. And the ugliness, which was the reality, was somehow defeated."
Fate Is The Hunter, Ernest Gann's brilliant book about flying.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 16 2024 19:17 utc | 71
Posted by: too scents | Oct 16 2024 18:49 utc | 66
Weeb Union's latest report claims that there is a pincer about to close off the pocket in the extreme NW section of the Kursk incursion, similar to @15. Weeb is a bit more skeptical that it is going to get completely closed to encircle the battalion of the UAF and trap them similar to Ugledar. The next few days/weeks will tell, but he is correct that once the UAF failed to take Korenevo, the Kursk adventure was doomed and its just a matter of time. There is no strategic or even tactical purpose anymore for Zelensky to keep blundering and making the same mistake over, and over. Well, other than kicking the can past the US election and hoping that Harris turns out to be even more of a captured neo-con shill than Biden is. Good luck with that.
Given what you just posted, I hope that the Kremlin sends all available reserves to crush the UAF once and for all.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 19:27 utc | 72
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 16 2024 15:37 utc | 41
How does a sub-average IQ differentiate a sub-average IQ from an above-average IQ?
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 16 2024 19:29 utc | 73
German oppositional leader, and likely next chancellor @_Friedrich Merz says he would give Russia at 24 hour ultimatum to stop bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. If it doesn’t do so, he would provide Taurus w/o restrictions to Ukraine.
Posted by: Chioon | Oct 16 2024 19:34 utc | 74
Dima also now saying up to 1 1/2 brigades encircled in Kursk in NW pocket. Needs confirmation as it is from pro-Russian sources. But if true, this could be time's up for the Kursk shit show.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 19:45 utc | 75
Posted by: Chioon | Oct 16 2024 19:34 utc | 74There must be something that Scholz knows but Merz does not yet. This is just rhethorics, no content. While Merz isn't the candidate of German industrial capital (like Merkel was and Söder would be IMO), he'll try to avoid getting a ping-ponged rocket back onto Berlin, if a Taures manages to hit Moscow or St. Petersburg.German oppositional leader, and likely next chancellor @_Friedrich Merz says he would give Russia at 24 hour ultimatum to stop bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. If it doesn’t do so, he would provide Taurus w/o restrictions to Ukraine.
I believe that voting is pointless but Merz would make a pitiful chancellor: even more transatlantic than the fuckwads before him, with perhaps the exception of the US dreamteam Habeck & Baerbock. I don't see a way for Germany to evade the upcoming desaster. Didn't even need WW3 and is one of the big US successes out of the Ukraine chapter.
Posted by: Chioon | Oct 16 2024 19:47 utc | 76
I spoke to a friend on Friday, a so-called Russian-German with excellent contacts, and he confirmed what Helmer is suggesting here... There is a clear shift in power between the Kremlin and Stavka, towards Stavka. Putin is probably viewed very (not to say very) critically when it comes to the Ukraine affair.
https://johnhelmer.net/dmitry-rogozin-for-president/#more-90451
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 16 2024 19:47 utc | 77
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 16 2024 13:47 utc | 22
I’d venture far higher, given the nature of the weapons being used and the targets, especially HEAT rounds against APC’s/vehicles and drone dropped grenades and the liberal use of mines and booby traps.
Also, as this article points out, the inability to offer little more than basic first aid v’s injuries created by modern weapons increases the chances of ‘extremity injuries’ escalating.
https://journals.lww.com/jaaos/Fulltext/2006/00001/Extremity_Injury_in_War__A_Brief_History.2.aspx
Posted by: Milites | Oct 16 2024 19:50 utc | 78
The 3-1 thru 5-1 wounded to killed ratio is for armies with adequate medical capabilities and who make an honest effort to retrieve and treat the wounded. I have seen nothing of that in 2 years of reporting.
The lightest wounded are able to self rescue and live, but they are the lucky few. Try 1-1 or 2-1 for a more accurate picture of total losses. I think 750,000 killed is the unfortunately the truer.
Now would be a good time to say 'No more brother wars!' but they just authorized the military to shoot Americans in America. Just so's you know who to shoot back at first.
Posted by: Trumpeter | Oct 16 2024 19:57 utc | 79
Mid 2023 they were producing 2.600 prosthesis a month.
When my eyes rapidly scanned over this, I read it as "producing 2.600 prostitutes a month"... I'll leave it to others to discuss the numerology there
Posted by: Call it what u will | Oct 16 2024 20:01 utc | 80
@horseguards | Oct 16 2024 19:29 utc | 73
How does a sub-average IQ differentiate a sub-average IQ from an above-average IQ?Its a force similar to gravity, well recognised but nobody can properly explain it 😎
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 16 2024 20:14 utc | 81
Dima had an amazing analysis of "Zelensky victory plan".
It seems that this is an ultimatum to the West.
After US elections, I think they are going to attack Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 20:23 utc | 82
@Vargas - my gut first take is that Dima's analysis is good.
It is an ultimatum. However, it's not quite time to panic or retreat to the bunker. Zelensky is desperate and whether that ultimatum falls on deaf ears is more likely than not, IMO. Remember, "they" have already attacked Russia. The question is, especially with Iran/Israel on the front burner, what escalatory move is there for NATO?
Put real skin in the game? I don't think so. Nobody is dying for Zelenksy.
More "wunderwaffen"? Cupboard is bare.
"Deep strikes?" Doesn't make much sense to wait 'til after the elections. Time is of the essence - the Kursk shit show is getting canceled and Trump may pull the rug on any more "deep strikes" nonsense.
Us mortals wait while these idiots risk global annihilation.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 20:36 utc | 83
"Deep strikes?" Doesn't make much sense to wait 'til after the elections. Time is of the essence - the Kursk shit show is getting canceled and Trump may pull the rug on any more "deep strikes" nonsense.
Us mortals wait while these idiots risk global annihilation.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 20:36 utc | 83
I think "Deep strikes" is the western option here and colludes with their way of thinking and mindset (kill kill kill the Russians, just kill).
It would be an ideal terror weapon, ideal for MSM, ideal for Azovs, good on CNN.
It can be used in a longer period.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 20:43 utc | 84
The question is, especially with Iran/Israel on the front burner, what escalatory move is there for NATO?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 20:36 utc | 83
They have many options:
- Moldova (a humiliation for Russia as they cannot help there)
- A naval blockade in Baltic
-
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 20:45 utc | 85
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 16 2024 19:27 utc | 72
The failure to capture Sudzha (D-D+1 objective) doomed the whole offensive, such was the timetable. Having to divert follow-on forces to its capture upended the timetable, bottlenecked the rear (allowing for highly effective Russian strikes) and allowed their defensive scheme (what there was of it) to be reinforced in critical sectors.
If you’ve ever left for work 10 minutes later than usual, you will appreciate that time is normally the critical element in arriving on schedule. The Ukrainian’s gave up their owning this critical asset, called ‘the clock’ within a day. Russia has not given it back.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 16 2024 20:54 utc | 86
How does a sub-average IQ differentiate a sub-average IQ from an above-average IQ?Posted by: horseguards | Oct 16 2024 19:29 utc | 73
Communication gap. To someone with a lower IQ, the higher IQ will come across as skipping "important" details or getting them wrong. The lower IQ person might even perceive the high IQ person as deceitful.
The higher IQ person will be bored and frustrated hearing what he considers unnecessary details.
High IQ people think in terms of relationships and concepts. Lower IQ people think linearly and are more concerned about details.
Posted by: JackG | Oct 16 2024 20:58 utc | 87
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 20:43 utc | 84
It’s not about killing Russians, it’s a strategic concept that was born of Cold-War thinking. The idea being that Deep Strikes would disrupt Soviet rail-bound logistics at source, and as each LOS node was attacked the system would be brought closer to collapse. It was the same with FoFA strikes, destroy and disrupt formations, well before they had an opportunity to exercise their combat power.
Same story tactically, but instead of supply it was command centres, paralysing the top-down Soviet C3. There was a reason NATO gunners were told to look out for vehicles with two aerials.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 16 2024 21:02 utc | 88
Ot, but Ukr was able to intercept a drone signal. Targeting their building!
Posted by: Mary | Oct 16 2024 21:05 utc | 89
Posted by: vargas | Oct 16 2024 20:45 utc | 85
A naval blockade is an act of war, so its use by any NATO navies would trigger direct Russian retaliation, and would NOT trigger article V as the blockading nation is the aggressor. If this option is taken then it is the start of WWIII.
The Moldovans may have something to say about trouble there. it would first take Romania to invade Moldova or an election to have them joined. There would certainly be major insurgency should your suggestion be adopted.
Posted by: watcher | Oct 16 2024 21:08 utc | 90
Trumpeter | Oct 16 2024 19:57 utc | 79
they just authorized the military to shoot Americans in America
In case @bar thinks this^ is hyperbole. Nope. [They could be anticipating (or planning) something to kick off after the results of Nov5. ]
“Biden” just released this:
https://archive.md/wip/fRRqx
Article by Paul Craig Roberts on this:
https://www.unz.com/proberts/the-biden-regime-has-just-issued-a-very-suspicious-directive-permitting-military-intervention-in-us-domestic-affairs/
Title: "Law Enforcement Agencies and Other Civil Authorities."
On 3.3 on page 2
Also
"Defense Intelligence Components", 3.3 Levels of Authority.
ELI5:
>3.3
The military can join any police/fed mission if they suspect danger
>(1)
Only if the secretary approves
>(2)
list of situations the secretary can approve
(a)
riots/protests/gatherings/ect
(b)
big danger
(c)
if they want/think they may kill someone
(d)
they can drone you too
Pet phrase ”reasonably anticipated”.
Pre-crime is a thing, now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bMda_62--M
^DoD Permission To Use Lethal Force Against AMERICANS?
>…”Just in time for the election! A new Defense Department directive spells out the scenarios whereby the Defense Secretary can put US troops on US soil in situations where lethal force may be required. Also today: Biden rushes US troops into Israel's war on Lebanon...without Congress”
Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 16 2024 21:09 utc | 91
The last plank of Zelensky's glorious victory plan proposed (after Ukraine's admission into Nato, of course, and the defeat of Russia, natch) that Ukraine could offer it's well-honed and experienced fighting force, possibly the finest in the world, to substitute for US forces in You're-apeein' countries. Ostensibly to free US troops to liberate other lands in the Middle East and Asia. Mighty generous of the guy, to offer that kind of help. How to resist such an offer? Skeptics may wonder just where and how Z-man will field such a force.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 16 2024 21:10 utc | 92
They could have not started it in 2014. Or the first try colored orange.
Posted by: lex talionis | Oct 16 2024 17:54 utc
Fair observation
You could argue its been slowly boiling since the Putin reforms earlier in the century.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 16 2024 21:29 utc | 93
USA gives another 400million plus dollars to 404...missiles vehicles bullets etc .
I seem to recall from the Draft Astana Peace Documents and quite surprised at such,that Ukraine was permitted a very definite sizeable list of military that would be allowed....tanks planes soldiers etc. Any current "peace "plan from Russia seems to say it still perhaps will be "based" on the Astana . I very much hope that the Ukr army is so decimated that very little from the list might survive and whatever does will not
be allowed to rebuild to the levels previously signed for in the Astana.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 16 2024 21:32 utc | 94
Posted by: jpc | Oct 16 2024 21:29 utc | 93
Indeed. Before that even. They had their eyes on Ukraine probably before the Great Patriotic War ended. Gehlen had a hand in it, too. The Org was quite familiar with the area. Operation Nachtigall I think it was called post war. Parachuting in OUN types for werewolf activities.
Posted by: lex talionis | Oct 16 2024 21:36 utc | 95
I posted on the last relevant thread a table from a pro Ukrainian site showing total casualties figure from open sources at 1.8 million.
Will repost when I get back on the computer.
Maybe someone could collate that to casualty per sq metre.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 16 2024 21:38 utc | 96
The number of 300,000 is for the first 18 months of the war, so it will be much worse now - probably double at least given the escalation in Ukrainian casualties. I agree with some other commenters that we have to take into account the offsets of both emigration, as such individuals would have been allowed to leave the country, plus we have to take into account deaths of those that were disabled. Let's also remember that only 18 months into the war the number of Ukrainian war arm or leg amputees was put at around 50,000, which is a small subset of those disabled through organ damage, loss of sight, loss of hearing, brain damage, loss of fingers or toes, and psychological trauma leading to mental illness etc. Given the overwhelming nature of the Russian artillery and the FABs, together with the constant attacks from drones, widespread PTSD would be expected.
Given the horrendous state of medical support at the Ukrainian front, the widespread corruption that affects all supplies including medical ones, and the nature of the war and the munitions being used it doesn't surprise me that so many are becoming disabled. The Ukrainians now have well over 1 million casualties, and that is just at the front line not counting missile and glide bomb hits etc., away from the front line, so such large numbers of disabled make sense. Such large irretrievable casualty numbers also line up with the utter desperation of the authorities to get more cannon fodder for the front.
This will only get worse as we hit the time of rain and mud, and then the winter months with an exhausted Ukie military and legions of untrained recruits in an environment of little heat and power and very small supplies of tracked armoured vehicles and artillery support. Imagine getting injured in a polluted trench and with no tracked vehicles to get you to the rear through the mud and/or snow and little if any local medical supplies and trained medical staff? A recoverable injury can quickly become an amputation or death.
"Europe and the USA can start extracting and protecting Ukrainian resources, otherwise Russia will seize them".
Calling Black Rock....Calling Black Rock....come in Black Rock😅
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Oct 16 2024 22:42 utc | 98
@ ossi | Oct 16 2024 15:31 utc | 39
thanks.. i get it... the thing is no one wants to see this, no matter who they are...
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2024 15:35 utc | 40
------------------------------------------------
Thanks, james, much appreciated.
I share the same feelings as ossi for similar reasons. I was born in occupied territory during WW II and grew up with the aftermath.
The Netherlands were liberated by the Canadians and this year we dropped by Juno Beach and the Canadian War Cemetery nearby. My mothers younger sister emigrated to Alberta shortly after her marriage. I know have some 300 cousins there.
Last year we visited Omaha Beach and the nearby American War Cemetery with some 8,500 graves. None of the five German war cemeteries was on the list. The smallest runs 20,00 the largest 50,000. Next year, one of the German war cemeteries is on the list.
Margraten, in the Netherlands, contains the graves of various Allied as well as German soldiers.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 16 2024 22:49 utc | 99
DS Map intel dropped:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/47.8636799/37.3677635
Overall another slow day for the RFA. Only took 6 kmsq, well under the 16/day pace of SEP.
S to N:
1. About 1 kmsq SW of Katerynivka, in a salient, and including entry into the town. Strategic in that it;s a new down and continuing to capture settlements in a line. Note the approach was from the S, fields, not from the SE, Kostiantynivka, as that town is still not completely taken (although all in the red plus gray). Presumably taking Katery would help with surrounding and taking Kostian.
2. About 1 kmsq in a salient S from Tsukuryne. Izmailivka and Novoselydivka are in peril. And progress being made to cutting off Hirnyk.
3. About 3 kmsq in a long narrow areaSW of Marynivka, NW of Selydove. Progress, I guess, but town of Sely still not entered, nor the slag heap NE of it taken. Not really poised for the battle to start yet.
4. About 1 kmsq N of New York, S of Nelipivke. The counterattack of the UFA has now been erased (in red or gray). If DS has called NY taken completely, yet, I have missed it. But it must be very close to that (or already happened).
5. (+UFA) About 1 kmsq taken by UFA NE of Lyptsi (Kharkov sector). No debit to the RFA advance as the UFA advance was all converting gray zone.
6. No change in Kursk. So much for the cauldron/collapse talk. UFA seems to have stopped the bleeding. Lines static for last several days.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 16 2024 23:15 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
And on the industrial situation and generally:
"In particular, the advances of Russian forces into parts of the disputed Donbas region that are vital to the survival of what remains of Ukraine’s economy have the potential to bring an end to efforts by the government in Kiev and its Western allies to sustain a NATO-aligned administration in power. The Ukrainian steel industry, for one, is seen to be particularly at risk due to Russian advances towards the city of Pokrovsk."
"Providing insight into the shifting consensus in the Western world, former Polish chief of the General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak in the second week of October emphasised the need to prepare for a future in which all of present day Ukrainian territory were placed under Russian control."
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/looming-catastrophe-ukraine-effort
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 16 2024 10:52 utc | 1