Ukraine - FT Proposes Impossible Peace Deal, Demands More Violence
By now it has become accepted wisdom that Ukraine is losing the war against Russia.
Western governments are slowly accepting that their Ukrainian proxy forces have no chance to turn the situation around. None of their own populations or military are prepared to get themselves engaged in combat. Meanwhile the war support for Ukraine is eating into their budgets.
The situation necessitates to push for an end of the war - at least a temporarily one.
The Zelenski government is officially against any talk of ceasefire or piece without it being a full Ukrainian victory. But behind close doors such talks are preceding.
That is at least what the editors of the Financial Times are telling the public:
Ukraine’s shifting war aims (archived)
In Washington and some western capitals, meanwhile — and in the corridors of Kyiv — the mood is shifting: from a determination that the war can end only with Russia’s army driven from Ukraine, to the reluctant recognition that a negotiated settlement that leaves the bulk of the country intact may be the best hope. Yet Kyiv is not being given the support it needs even to achieve that scaled-back goal.
...
[G]rappling simultaneously with an escalating Middle East war, even some western capitals that previously insisted on the need to defeat Russia’s Vladimir Putin militarily are recalibrating their goals. Some Kyiv officials, too, fret in private that they lack the personnel, firepower and western support to recover all territory seized by Russia. There is talk behind closed doors of a deal in which Moscow retains de facto control over the roughly one-fifth of Ukraine it has occupied — though Russia’s sovereignty is not recognised — while the rest of the country is allowed to join Nato or given equivalent security guarantees. Under that umbrella, it could rebuild and integrate with the EU, akin to West Germany in the cold war.
The plan is to concede some land to Russia while giving a NATO protection cover to a rump Ukraine.
There are at least four groups involved here who will not agree to such a solution.
All NATO countries have to agree to take up new members. If the western parts of Ukraine are allowed to join NATO who is going to keep Ukraine under control? What would happen if it provokes another war with Russia? Will all current NATO countries find that agreeing to Ukraine's NATO membership will increase their own security?
Some countries, like the Russo-phobe Baltic ones, would probably support that step. But I do no believe that any of the more sane NATO members will be willing to risk a war with Russia over an issue, Ukraine, that is only of marginal interest to them.
An Ukrainian membership in the EU will see similar hurdles. Two-third of the EU budget are agricultural subsidies designed to allow for a common market without destroying the farming communities in this or that country. The largest share of those subsidies currently goes to Poland. Ukrainian land is extremely fertile. It can produce crops at much lower costs than its EU neighbors. The EU does not have and will not have the budget to compensate for that. Any entering of Ukraine into the EU would thereby lead to losses for farmers in any if not all current EU member states.
The price advantage of Ukrainian agricultural products is the reason why Polish farmers have just restarted their blocking of border crossings with Ukraine (machine translation):
Polish farmers blocked traffic at several checkpoints last winter and spring. They demanded that the Polish government suspend the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, the import of which was previously prohibited.
The farmers of Poland have an unusually big influence on the country's policies. Poland will thereby likely be the country most opposed to a EU membership of Ukraine. Others will agree with it.
Ukraine itself would of course also have to agree to a ceasefire or peace agreement that would lead to a loss of some 25% of its land. While the average Ukrainian may well favor a land for peace deal a distinct minority on the radical right is adamant against it. As a previous FT piece noted (archived):
“If you get into any negotiation, it could be a trigger for social instability,” says a Ukrainian official. “Zelenskyy knows this very well.”“There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy,” says Merezhko, who is an MP for Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party.
The radical segment in Ukraine's society, aka the Nazis, are heavily armed and experienced in combat. They do have sympathy in the higher ranks of the Ukrainian army. The former Chief of Staff General Zaluzny is known for good relations with it as is General Budanov, the current head of the military intelligence service.
A civil government of Ukraine which wants to engage in serious peace negotiations will first have to neutralize those radical forces. Without that it will have little chance to survive their onslaught.
The fourth party that would have to agree to such a ceasefire, and NATO membership for a rump Ukraine, is of course Russia.
Russia was, is, and will be against any membership in NATO of any part of Ukraine:
In January 2008, William Burns, the U. S. Ambassador to Russia at the time, sent a classified cable to Washington in which he summarized Russia’s concerns about NATO expansion. The subject line, “Nyet means Nyet,” or “No means No,” conveyed in a single word Burns’ belief that NATO expansion into Ukraine was “brightest of all redlines” for Russia.
Russia largely launched its special military operation in 2022 to prevent a NATO membership for Ukraine. It was and is sure that any encroachment of NATO in Ukraine will be used to weaken Russia. It is now winning the war in Ukraine. To now agree on some form of NATO membership for a rump of Ukraine would contradict the war's purpose.
The ceasefire or peace plan the FT editorial foresees depends on the agreement of all NATO and EU member states as well as the approval by the Ukrainian and Russian government. Neither of the four groups is likely to sign off on it.
The FT editors know this well:
This scenario relies, however, on ambitious assumptions. One is that the US and its allies must be prepared to offer Nato membership or the necessary guarantees, when they have so far been reluctant to grant Kyiv a binding path into the alliance.
...
A second assumption is that Russia’s president can be induced to negotiate and accept such a scenario. But preventing Ukraine from joining Nato was one of his ostensible war aims.
But instead of rejecting the plan because it is obviously infeasible the editors demand to apply more violence to achieve its acceptance:
Whether the goal is outright victory or bringing Russia to the table, western allies need to strengthen Ukraine’s hand. The Kremlin can only be pushed into talks on a deal that might be satisfactory for Kyiv, and the west, if it feels the costs of fighting on are too high. And any resolution to the war that enables all or part of Ukraine to survive and prosper will need guarantees of its security.
...
We cannot yet know how the war will end. But it is within the west’s power — and interest — to help Ukraine regain the upper hand over its foe.
The editorial is a demonstration of the childish naivety that is predominant in western government thinking: Ukraine is losing. Propose a peace agreement that has no chance of getting implemented. Demand to intensify and prolong the war to -may be- make the infeasible peace plan less infeasible.
But Ukraine and the west have lost the war. Negotiating a ceasefire of peace deal with oneself, as the FT editors do, does no make it plausible. All ways to a deal that is "satisfactory for Kyiv, and the west" have long been foreclosed - by the west. There will simply be no deal like that - ever.
Denying that reality will only lead to higher losses for Ukraine and for the west.
Posted by b on October 8, 2024 at 15:35 UTC | Permalink
next page »“The #US will face ‘dangerous consequences’ if it presses on with growing military aid to #Ukraine rather than backing a proposed #Russian settlement that would see #Moscow take over swathes of territory #Lavrov said in responses to
@Newsweek questions."
Amazing how these utter tools and fools that rule the "West" can't comprehend one very simply sentence: nyet means nyet. After years of defeat they continue to wallow in their delusions of "global full spectrum dominance". The "garden" desperately needs a reality check.
Posted by: Cal | Oct 8 2024 15:50 utc | 3
OFF TOPIC:
"Canada was supposed to unveil a memorial to the “Victims of Communism” in 2023. Before they could, though, it came to light that 330 of the 553 names listed were Nazi war criminals, including members of Ukraine’s Insurgent Army and Latvian SS. Canada’s harboring of and reverence for WWII Nazis became an “issue” when the parliament honored one during a state visit by then-president Zelenskiy. :
The FT proposal is Hollywood delusions.
The attempt to control the narrative and tell the public the parameters they must view the world through is gone but still the strategy of the empire losers.
How does the proposal address Russia's goals of denazification, demilitarization and NATO aggression?
It doesn't!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 8 2024 15:56 utc | 5
A core war aim of Moscow, as proposed in its Dec 2021 Peace Deal, is the roll back of NATO to its 1998 members.
War Party staff should close read the Dec 2021 Peace Deal before offering any embarrassing advice.
Posted by: Exile | Oct 8 2024 15:57 utc | 6
The FT piece skates around one issue and that is the complete illegitimacy of the Kiev junta. Zelensky’s presidential term has long since expired, the Rada’s parliamentary term expired at the end of August.
So, in the current circumstances, who is legally empowered to sign any terms of any settlement arrangements on behalf of the people of Ukraine, that Russia will recognise as being so empowered?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 16:06 utc | 7
thanks b..
another possibility is the break up of the EU... perhaps orban and fico and some of the developing leadership in EU countries like austria, germany and france will share this view as well to the point EU has to become a different creature then it presently is - a puppet to NATO..
Posted by: james | Oct 8 2024 16:15 utc | 8
But continuing the war will make the rich richer, which is the whole point.
You don't see rich politicians, investors, and CEOs volunteering themselves as cannon-fodder, do you?
The people-killing industry has — by far — the highest profit margin and the greatest growth potential of any industry in the world.
And best of all, it's taxpayer-funded: Hooray for Socialism!
Of course, taxpayers don't actually want to kill humans; apparently they just have this irrepressible urge to make rich people richer — one billionaire at a time!
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Oct 8 2024 16:15 utc | 9
who is the FT a mouthpiece for anyway?? i heard it was owned by the japanese..
Posted by: james | Oct 8 2024 16:17 utc | 10
"So, in the current circumstances, who is legally empowered to sign any terms of any settlement arrangements on behalf of the people of Ukraine, that Russia will recognise as being so empowered?"
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 16:06 utc | 7
The US of A.
The key word in the FT article is OR.
"NATO or"
This is not controversial.
See
Posted by: Powerandpeople | Oct 8 2024 16:23 utc | 13
Posted by: canuck | Oct 8 2024 15:54 utc | 4
.
.
.
Canada will also be the target of today's Nazis (Azov) if Ukraine falls. Even if it remains as the rest of Ukraine, the EU will be wary of taking in these Nazis.
Indirectly, this may be a reason why Putin is happy to give up Western Ukraine and why the EU, especially Poland, would like to lay this Nazi egg in the nest.
Canada has always been a refuge for Nazis, especially Ukrainians, and they were always welcome there. Incidentally, the same applies in the USA, but a little more hidden.
Posted by: ossi | Oct 8 2024 16:25 utc | 14
Posted by: canuck | Oct 8 2024 16:19 utc | 12
.
.
Now Russia would possibly acknowledge if China negotiated...
Russia will NEVER be able to and will NEVER want to trust Western politics again.
Another reason why negotiations will be difficult if only China is on the table.
Ergio Russia will advance until it capitulates, then after the first takeovers it will perhaps withdraw a little on its own initiative, not because a treaty requires it.
Posted by: ossi | Oct 8 2024 16:29 utc | 15
Posted by: canuck | Oct 8 2024 16:19 utc | 12
Heh, ultimately of course; I was thinking more about the “optics”, the “narrative” that needs at least an imprimatur of Ukrainian constitutional acquiescence. I don’t see anyone currently capable of providing this.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 16:30 utc | 16
"Denying that reality will only lead to higher losses for Ukraine and for the west."
Its funny they seem to understand and respect the law of the jungle in every other context: might makes right. But here, in such a clear case of overmatch, they act like chimps trying to read a book.
Too much coke maybe?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 8 2024 16:33 utc | 17
The following applies
- Tomorrow will be very much the same as today.
- In the long run, the endgame is that the US will withdraw from adventures abroad, and return to its own shores, a country very much impoverished.
- What happens between tomorrow and the endgame is the interesting part. I have no idea.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 8 2024 16:36 utc | 18
Russia accepting that part of Ukraine would join NATO is unlikely, sure, but even before discussing the terms of such a piece deal, there's another big issue: Ukraine and the West are not trustworthy, and neither their word (NATO expansion) nor their signature (Minsk) is worth a fart.
Posted by: Ozy | Oct 8 2024 16:41 utc | 19
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 8 2024 16:36 utc | 18
##########
When America is forced to withdraw from its foreign adventures, pity the Mexicans and Canadians. The Yankees will find necessary dragons closer to home.
NAU redux?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 16:54 utc | 20
Let's keep this war forever, they say. Just look at how the seventy-year-and counting Korean war has paid off with US military action going on with their war games from many bases in Korea and Japan. Let's do the same in Ukraine. Hurrah! What a way to contribute to US security. . . .er, profits
Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 8 2024 16:57 utc | 21
The end of the war in Ukraine will be dictated by Russia on terms defined by its strategic necessities. The absolute, unwavering hostility of the west is baked into the capitalist/imperialist cake, and no Russian is capable of ignoring that any longer. Thus, Ukraine will never be allowed into NATO, and no part of it will enjoy sufficient political autonomy to ever consider it. 'Ukraine' as a political entity will be eliminated, and various pieces will be integrated as individual oblasts into the RF. Others MAY be formed into one or more new countries with new names, but these will be run by the RF for a long, long time. Only the RF and its allies are in any position to rebuild Ukraine, and they have an interest in doing so, whereas the west would prefer a festering sore on Russia's border. When that rebuilding has clarified the situation sufficiently, all of the former 404 will become part of Russia again, though never as a bloc.
There is really nothing the west can do about this. Having failed to produce the outcome that would kick the can of capitalist system crisis down the road, the west is going to be busy trying to inflict 'solutions' on less powerful victims.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 8 2024 17:02 utc | 22
What they are really worried are the recent election results. Why your barely hear from Germany and France now. They are terrified the Eurozone collapses. They lose the greatest geopolitical tool of all and countries move back to being fully sovereign states that issue their own currencies.
If the election results had been the usual big margin wins of the neoliberal globalists. There would be no mention of a peace plan.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 17:10 utc | 23
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 16:54 utc | 20
I do not see China organizing a "Maidan" in Canada or Mexico?
The US is a country born out of a myth - pushing the frontier back. That mentality led to NATO expansion.
China does not have that. They do have a statue of a smiling man with a little belly standing on a sack of rice.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 24
Canada will also be the target of today's Nazis (Azov) if Ukraine falls. Even if it remains as the rest of Ukraine, the EU will be wary of taking in these Nazis.
Indirectly, this may be a reason why Putin is happy to give up Western Ukraine and why the EU, especially Poland, would like to lay this Nazi egg in the nest.
Posted by: ossi | Oct 8 2024 16:25 utc | 14
Battle hardened Azov troops might actually come very handy for all the sort of tasks ranging from classical mercenaries in proxy conflicts to a praetorian guard for the liberal order: making sure that a protestor booing the Starmer/Macron du jour at a party congress is beaten to a bloody pulp, crushing any attempt at a better organized January 6 with overwhelming firepower and the likes.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 25
After the rejection of at least 2 opportunities to agree peace (the second on much more harsh terms than the first), Ukraine now has only one option left.
Unconditional surrender.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 26
When America is forced to withdraw from its foreign adventures, pity the Mexicans and Canadians. The Yankees will find necessary dragons closer to home.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 16:54 utc | 20
______
Pity especially the Venezuelans.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 27
All this is a consequence of the half legitimate US executive branch of the government. They have a stain of illegitimacy, maybe right maybe not, but that doesnt matter that much. The stubbornly unfading stain makes them focus on defending themselves from enemies domestically and abroad in a far more forceful way than needed for the good of the people. So they substitute what is good for the country with what is good for the party since they thing that they must fight the illegitimacy first and foremost to keep the country together. It is a mechanism which destroys numerous countries across the developing world that think “voting” is democracy.
In this case it means among others prolonging the Russia narrative well beyond the 2016 needs.
The incapacity to see clearly a solution before 1M+ victims have fallen is simply a consequence of pushing a Russia Russia narrative for already 10 years just to prove themselves legitimate.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 8 2024 17:13 utc | 28
After several attempts to start a proxy war with Russia, in 2014 NATO accepted the Nazis it had been grooming since 1945 into its ranks as the Cold War finally ended with the Ukraine Coup and the launch of the Smoldering War against ethnic Russians within Ukraine. That War became Hot in February 2022 as a result of NATO/Nazi Genocidal policies aimed at ethnic Russians and NATO's war aims were quickly announced as inflicting a "strategic defeat on Russia," while brushing away all Russian attempts at a diplomatic solution in December 2021 and in March 2022. NATO decided on a Hot Proxy War that decidedly ended the Cold War period as all its confessions proved. IMO, there was never any policy aim to allow Russia to recover from its latest Time of Troubles; the goal was very similar to Hitler's Plan Ost.
European NATO however was defeated by its supposed patron the Outlaw US Empire when the self-destructive energy policies were further escalated by the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, which has made it very unlikely that European NATO will ever be able to rearm itself, and thus remain dependent on the Outlaw MIC--as planned.
From the Outlaw US Empire's POV, NATO is doing just fine as EU/NATO is now even more geoeconomically dependent than ever before. So, the Empire has no incentive to end the conflict. However, it must be wary now that Russia has removed the Proxy aspect and specifically made the Hot War one between Russia and NATO being fought on Ukrainian land mostly with Ukrainian bodies. Thus, most of the grumbling within NATO is generated by its European members who have no agency by themselves to end the war. Europe, however, does have one alternative: Popular Revolt that fractures NATO as it's clear that the Outlaw US Empire has desired the colonization of Europe for decades and has essentially attained that goal, although it's very tenuous.
The possibility that the Outlaw US Empire will find itself engaged in two-three wars at the same time is very possible and will force it to print further vast amounts of money to appropriate to its arms industry that can't make anything that's really usable against Russia or its other potential opponents--the Levant Resistance in its entirety. The great howler here is that the dummkopf in charge of the US Navy has said it must be ready to wage war against China by 2027 when the truth is the USN will never be ready to wage war against China--it's that broke and broken.
Many are thinking and saying that to get the Outlaw US Empire to cease its hegemonic nature, it must be forced to defend its homeland; it must be made to accept the reality that it will need to take battle damage; that it's not invincible or impregnable. I'm not endorsing such thinking, but I do see its rationality.
How does the current Hot War started by the Outlaw US Empire/NATO end. Or perhaps it should be asked How does the Hot War get ended?
The Eurozone is the economic arm of NATO. NATO is the military arm of the Eurozone. The NATO charters and EU treaties are just copy and paste jobs of each other.
Destroy one and the other one collapses pure and simple.
Even if article 5 is evoked, we have enough evidence over the last few years, that shows quite a few countries who are members will simply say no. Leave and move back to be fully sovereign nation states again and either stay neutral or move to join BRICS.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 17:20 utc | 30
If I was Putin, I would just keep turning the screw until the voters themselves topple the Eurozone. Voters in Germany and France and Now Austria have joined the voters of Italy and Holland and the UK in seeing the complete and utter sham it is.
Once the Eurozone collapses, NATO crumbles.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 17:35 utc | 31
How does the Hot War get ended?Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 8 2024 17:18 utc | 29
That’s a powerful question, to which I can only speculatively offer another question as a response; does it end with the US imploding under the weight of dollars returning home, after being rejected by the Global Majority?
The upcoming BRICS conference in Kazan might give us a pointer.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 17:37 utc | 32
Zelenskys' awful piss summit die, die, dies!
https://www.rt.com/russia/605435-zelensky-november-peace-conference/
And pudding-skulled, sockpuppet corpse-in-chief decides to stay in the US, as the the optics of leaving right before another major natural disaster less than 30 days before the election aren't so hot.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 8 2024 17:46 utc | 33
Russia is winning - and will win outright - it will be Russia that calls the shots on any ceasefire, or long term deal - and not the EU nor Nato or Ukraine.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 8 2024 17:52 utc | 34
"When all else fails, they drag you to war."
But we have been at war for the last thirty years.
For b to insist that the west should abandon Ukraine because it is of very little overall importance is wrong enough for me to conclude that b is overall ignorant of the implications of this struggle or he is proceeding from bad faith in trying to convince our betters that Ukraine is not all that important.
The implications of Ukraine are massive in importance. TPTB have ascribed Cookies-Nuland and the Kagans as architects, but the real force behind this action is concealed. The Pentagon is not a house-divided. It is a House completely captured. The fact there may be some good eggs there can not hope to upset this rotten-apple cart.
We have been drug to war because Full Spectrum Dominance has unleashed the rampaging demon of empire to gather all to it. In the process, the scattering of all resistance occurred and we have lived through very bleak times, underground nurturing the candle flame.
But in the renewed hope we are seeing, knowing that World Spirit is storming back onto the scene, we see the decentralized resistance gathering all again to it.
The resistance is proving that permanent war, the scattering of spirit, can not win.
When will the humanists realize that this is a spiritual struggle with greater stakes than we give the SMO in Ukraine credit for?
The moment of their conversion, of course.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 8 2024 18:00 utc | 36
Why the constant struggle?
Imagine if you will, a glass tank of water.
The water is perfectly still and of a constant temperature.
There is no motion.
Now imagine a divider in the centre of the tank. The divider has a trap door of sorts.
Now imagine the water in the left portion is dyed White and the left portion is dyed black.
The trap door, at this point is closed.
Now imagine raising the temperature of the water in the left portion and reducing the temperature in the right portion.
Now the trap door opens and the water within the whole tank is forced to equalise the gradient.
Black, White, higher and lower are forced to resolve the contraction.
Now imagine yourself within the tank.
Imagine even, if you will, YOU ARE THE TANK!
In the words of the Ancients..
As above, so below.
In the world we experience this dichotomy, this dialectic as TROUBLE and STRIFE!
War, competition, markets and the like.
Equality Equality! Some shout.
But if life is at least motion, equality is not an option.
Can we equalise the temperature gradient of the atmosphere?
The electron gradient of electronics?
The proton gradient of life?
NO ESCAPE!!!
Or is there?
Posted by: LunarDegree33 | Oct 8 2024 18:02 utc | 37
The obvious next attempt would be to allow limited accession to the EU, limited meaning defense only.
Take NATO membership off the table, enter EU, send EU frontline troops.
Next war in ~15 years if Russia is stupid enough to allow that.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 8 2024 18:02 utc | 38
The original mediated agreement, Feb 2014 in response to Maidan, did not deal with anything involving territory because there was no need to. The agreement moved up the date of the next federal election, providing the citizens of Ukraine the opportunity to engage in a political debate regarding the pros and cons of EU membership. This agreement was scuttled by the rightist extremist elements in the form of a coup the following day. NATO’s Anglo bloc - US,UK,Canada - quickly and deliberately declared the coup as somehow “legitimate”. Ties between this anglo bloc and right-wing extremist interests in Ukraine extend back to 1944, when they were inherited from the Gehlen organization to serve as a “stay-at-home” fascist network.
NATO destabilized Ukraine in a bid to “weaken Russia”, and conditions in Ukraine have gotten steadily worse in the following decade. Pretending that is not the case is delusional, and such delusions will persist and inform all the ceasefire schemes until a more “reality-based” faction can assume control.
Posted by: jayc | Oct 8 2024 18:05 utc | 39
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang--
Thanks for your reply. The BRICS Summit might offer some suggestions. However, IMO the Outlaw US Empire can accept the current status quo in Europe while it has a very big problem in the Levant because of its own military weakness, a very clear fact that's also unmentionable. IMO, the Hot War won't be decided until the Levant is liberated.
Outraged | Oct 8 2024 17:53 utc | 35--
Is that really you!? I agree that's the most likely possibility 2026-7 depending upon what happens in West Asia, unless there's a complete collapse and abdication by the Nazis in 2025.
@ SOS | Oct 8 2024 18:02 utc | 38
EU has no troops. EU will never be allowed to have any military force as long as NATO (meaning US) has their grabby claws on the region. Don't make things up.
Posted by: boneless | Oct 8 2024 18:13 utc | 41
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 8 2024 18:00 utc | 36
I'm with you up to 'World Spirit.'
The PTB is the active element of the finance class, and their various layers and hierarchies of minions in everything that money can influence or control. Ascribe any supernatural label you wish to this, but understand that they are fundamentally human beings with very human fears and desires. We will not be saved by some abstract force, but by wise and carefully directed actions by other human beings.
Is the PTB full of Kabbalists and pedophiles? Possibly. Does the PTB use Kabbalists and pedophiles as agents of influence? Absolutely. Do they sometimes expose these agents to strengthen their hold on the others? We're watching it now. Does this mean that Satan is the prime mover of the PTB? I doubt it, but it doesn't matter, because the action is controlled by humans.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 8 2024 18:13 utc | 43
Next war in ~15 years if Russia is stupid enough to allow that.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 8 2024 18:02 utc | 38
If anything done by the Putin circle since he came to power makes you think the Russians are stupid, you uncritically consume too much mainstream media.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 8 2024 18:15 utc | 44
How does the current Hot War started by the Outlaw US Empire/NATO end. Or perhaps it should be asked How does the Hot War get ended?
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 8 2024 17:18 utc | 29
Ignominiously if past events are anything to judge by.
Add in the undeniable fact that the industrial capability that enabled the continuation of previous conflicts is gone.
The Russians and Chinese have that capacity.
Plus the ability to pursue and improve on the drone /UAV/EW battlefield that's been the big move on from previous conflicts.
The US still rule the satellite reconnaissance sector.
That's essentially kept the Ukrainians in the game.
And the total disregard for the casualties incurred.
The neocons have tried.
Ukrainians have died
The EU will disintegrate become irrelevant.
Russia will look east and evaluate the relationship with China.
The US??
How long can it kept issuing ious?
Interesting times.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 8 2024 18:15 utc | 45
"How does the Hot War get ended?"
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 8 2024 17:18 utc | 29
"That’s a powerful question, to which I can only speculatively offer another question as a response; does it end with the US imploding under the weight of dollars returning home, after being rejected by the Global Majority?
The upcoming BRICS conference in Kazan might give us a pointer."
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 17:37 utc | 32
One thing many have missed is the main reason behind the sanctions, yes it was to cripple Russia and Iran et al-but the ultimate reason the US does it, IMO (because let's fact it they aren't working as described), is that 'sanctioned dollars. cannot flood 'under the weight of dollars' returning to US shores-so to forestall that they sanction their own money so it doesn't return and cause rampant inflation.
[email protected] dragons up here, even the illegals head south, might be the winters.....lots of beaver though and you know what they say, two beavers are better than one...envy the dogg that has two...Bark at the Moon.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 8 2024 18:19 utc | 47
Battle hardened Azov troops might actually come very handy for all the sort of tasks ranging from classical mercenaries in proxy conflicts to a praetorian guard for the liberal order: making sure that a protestor booing the Starmer/Macron du jour at a party congress is beaten to a bloody pulp, crushing any attempt at a better organized January 6 with overwhelming firepower and the likes.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 25
No 'might' about it. US and Canadian governments are already full of Nazis and their descendants acquired the same way, and put to work in the same way.
Canada and the US both have a lot of essentially empty space, where whole cities that never appear on Google Maps might arise to nurture new generations of Nazi psychopaths.
Posted by: Honzo | Oct 8 2024 18:21 utc | 48
*** The editorial is a demonstration of the childish naivety that is predominant in western government thinking: Ukraine is losing. ***
"Childish nativity" is one way to characterized it I suppose. I have observed here that the US State Department is not capable of formulating effective policy because it's ranks are filled with the products of post modern education. Facts don't matter to them and they pride themselves upon not accepting correction. They are neither childish or niaeve.
So maybe The editorial is a demonstration of the woke zealotry that is predominant in western government thinking: Ukraine is losing.
Posted by: frithguild | Oct 8 2024 18:22 utc | 49
*** The editorial is a demonstration of the childish naivety that is predominant in western government thinking: Ukraine is losing. ***
"Childish nativity" is one way to characterized it I suppose. I have observed here that the US State Department is not capable of formulating effective policy because it's ranks are filled with the products of post modern education. Facts don't matter to them and they pride themselves upon not accepting correction. They are neither childish or niaeve.
So maybe The editorial is a demonstration of the woke zealotry that is predominant in western government thinking: Ukraine is losing.
Posted by: frithguild | Oct 8 2024 18:22 utc | 50
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 8 2024 17:18 utc | 29
>How does the Hot War get ended?
At this point, USA's main goal vis-a-vis Russia is to prevent Russia and EU from uniting (together with China) to contest USA in Mideast and Africa. Best way to accomplish this is prolong war in Ukraine so EU effectively at war with Russia, but war at a low enough intensity that USA can focus on higher priorities: like fending off China itself in Mideast and Africa, bringing Venezuela under control, etc.
Ukraine war can't be prolonged forever, but nothing is forever and, anyway, political and stock market attention spans are short nowa, so forever is not necessary. War can definitely be prolonged another 5 years, and 2030 is my long standing prediction of when there is a final peace treaty.
After peace treaty comes reconstruction/deconstruction of Ukraine, because I expect Ukraine to be a mess of autonomous fiefdoms ruled by oligarchs together with rogue brigade commanders by 2030. That process could take many more years.
Posted by: anonposter | Oct 8 2024 18:23 utc | 51
When America is forced to withdraw from its foreign adventures, pity the Mexicans and Canadians. The Yankees will find necessary dragons closer to home.
NAU redux?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 16:54 utc | 20
Mexico is the one that should be apprehensive. Canada is already under the full control of the US and Israel. Perhaps they can request the services of Wagner on the border?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 8 2024 18:26 utc | 52
Russia has BTW not much of an issue with Ukraine joining the EU. It is the EU itself that imposes very high standards on entry, albeit in paper (we saw that with Bulgaria and Romania). Russia has had an EU member as a neighbour for quite a while. No issues, even better it has access to a large trade block on land.
NATO is a different thing as there will be missiles at its door. Especially Ukraine that has been turned to anti-russia for decades now. That is Russia’s beef.
I dont see the argument of Ukraine joining EU but remaining neutral and without an Army as something the West can be against in a rational way for a prolonged time period. It is at this moment pure hatred that holds the reins, not rationality.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 8 2024 18:29 utc | 53
It took the US 20 years to give up in Afghanistan. Don't underestimate the inclination to kick the can down the road to avoid domestic political embarrassment.
Both fighting sides (UFA, RFA) are far apart in stated demands. But I would avoid making too much of that. It is common sense that they will have very different desires and in any case, nobody goes into a negotiation with their final offer. Any settlement will be in the middle.
Neither side has shown the ability to win decisively on the battlefield. It's obvious that UFA can't take back post 2014 RFA advances. Let alone crazy talk like Crimea. But also the RFA has an incredibly slow and costly rate of advance. UFA is still in Chasiv Yar, more than a year after Bakhmut was taken!
Both sides are spending a huge amount of money and lives on this slow grinding war. That is the incentive for each of them to settle for "half a crap sandwich".
I actually think the issues are more on the UFA and Western side to settle even though "Russia got away with it". From the RFA side, this whole thing has been way more of a tar baby than they expected...and they can paper over the loss. It's not like they need more land.
I expect line of contact to be the final settlement. There's no way UFA is conceding Kherson for instance. And RFA needs something (not as much) to paper over the mistake.
Not sure no the details like sovereignty, NATO, trade restrictions. But in the end that is really details. Yes...yes it is. What matters is territory and how much $ and lives it takes to get/keep it.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8 2024 18:30 utc | 54
Posted by: LunarDegree33 | Oct 8 2024 18:02 utc | 37
LooneyDegree33: "Imagine a circle... now, imagine the circle is... YOU." Whoa. Deep.
Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 8 2024 18:31 utc | 55
I'd call this just kicking the can down the road - pretending the west can achieve a deal that doesn't embarrass it, but knowing that deal is not possible.
It is not just waiting for the November elections to admit the bad news.
The real bad news is that the West is done. It is not just UK leaders and the FT that are scared of admitting that.
Posted by: Michael Droy | Oct 8 2024 18:35 utc | 56
A precondition of negotiations could be the handover of Zelensky and his governmental ministers and the Azov leadership to a pan Slavic court for crimes against humanity in Eastern Europe.
Posted by: Cavery | Oct 8 2024 18:39 utc | 57
One thing many have missed is the main reason behind the sanctions, yes it was to cripple Russia and Iran et al-but the ultimate reason the US does it, IMO (because let's fact it they aren't working as described), is that 'sanctioned dollars. cannot flood 'under the weight of dollars' returning to US shores-so to forestall that they sanction their own money so it doesn't return and cause rampant inflation.Posted by: canuck | Oct 8 2024 18:17 utc | 46
That’s an intriguing theory, and one I hadn’t considered. It does seem to be a very high-risk approach though, in that those holding ‘sanctioned’ dollars are effectively on the receiving end of a US default.
Or those dollars will make themselves known via indirect mechanisms, such as the gold and silver bullion markets for example, with all the knock-on consequences for the Western banking system as the ‘sanctioned’ dollars are exchanged for BIS Tier 1 assets.
Anyway, apologies all, for thread drift, peace in Ukraine is just one cog in a lot of interconnecting (and sometimes clashing) gearboxes.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 18:46 utc | 58
@ karlof1 | Oct 8 2024 17:18 utc | 29
Good read. Lets not forget 2004 & 2008.
OTTOMH
USN ? PRC currently shipbuilding production is ~400:1 vs US. Once on a war footing ?
USAF ? Deathtrap hanger queen F-35II production is 1/fortnight (IIRC). PRC cranks out a new fully operational J20 every 72 hrs. Once on a war footing ?
US trying to get SK & Japan to invest to manufacture/maintain the vessels USN needs. Brilliant location, right under the potential enemies guns/aircraft/missiles.
Undercrewed ships, derelict & uncrewable inadequate fleet support & merchant vessels. Berthed vessels necessary for fleet expeditionary Ops, 'cause cannot be crewed/serviced/maintained. Cannot build new hulls whilst fulfilling mandatory maintenance & repairs.
Lost the ability to design/manufacture alloys/hulls to build an icebreaker ...
Carrier Task Forces are merely targets in '24, especially when the escorts cannot be refueled at sea under combat conditions. Sink the lone precious oiler/tanker, no Flight Ops, escorts oil bunkers runs dry.
Since 90's Vertical Launch tubes for VLMs, ie SM3-SM6 missiles (Ground/Ship attack & AD) must be reloaded in harbor.
All services failed recruitment targets for more than a decade. Solution ? Continually lower standards. Even current deployments are unsustainable, systems chronically fail, overworked undermanned crews crack. All sub hulls manufactured in last three decades produced with non-spec alloys where certification testing was falsified. Current production subs being throughly re-inspected 'cause welders skipped spec requirements to save time (& money)...
The Boeing profit uber alles vs QC & production disease is widespread & endemic & long entrenched.
Same Situ with Army & Airforce. Coast Guard worse off. Then there's SpaceFarce.
The 'Arsenal' of Democracy re WWII is bare and so are the crates on the shelves.
Money-printer going BRRRR does not a 155mm artillery shell(hoped for 30,000/month by 2025. RF fired up 15,000-30,000/day and exceeds it's consumption production) or SM3 missile make(12 per annum). Manufacturing capacity at scale, skilled experienced capable scientists/managers/workers/techs/engineers ? Raw product/resources & materiel inputs under control of Non-Allies/Enemies.
RF manufactured 1.4million drones of all types by end '23. By end of '24 will have produced another ~14million.
Integrated circuits ? Feds just saved Intel from approaching bankruptcy, yet it's largest FAB plant is in Israhell. :)
Strategic Oil Reserve is approaching single digits due domestic politics exploitation.
And on & on. What happens when the Empire is denied the inputs and raw materials it requires to produce the war materiel it cannot manufacture ? Rare Earth metals ? Antimony ? Let alone when the money printer catches fire and goes boom.
CONUS AD/ABM defense essentially non-existent. Delusional. (See: recent Congressional testimony over last six months)
See: Strategic Situ Imperial Japan 6 months prior to 6 Dec 1941, only much, much worse in almost every domain.
@55
You gotta start somewhere man.
Maybe a point & work up to a circle?
Posted by: LunarDegree33 | Oct 8 2024 18:50 utc | 60
The plan is to concede some land to Russia while giving a NATO protection cover to a rump Ukraine.
That is all wishful thinking from some out-of-the-loop European and American politicians and lowly journalists. The Ukraines were never going to join either the EU or NATO. Ukrops and their shithole nation are a tool to weaken Russia, that is all they are, and a tool that performed badly and that stole lots of Western treasure for nothing of significance. In fact Russia became stronger.
Some countries, like the Russo-phobe Baltic ones, would probably support that step.
The Baltic statelets weigh less than a bag of popcorn. They will probably be attacked by Russia in due time and no NATO country will sacrifice their cities for them.
Russia largely launched its special military operation in 2022 to prevent a NATO membership for Ukraine.
The other factor that many forget is that the Jewish comedian and their fascists pals wanted to turn the Ukraines into a nuclear armed shithole nation.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 8 2024 18:54 utc | 61
As the answer to this they targeted Crimea yesterday. Nothing but escalation. The economic situation of Europe and the US is the sole reason of this lust for war. Post-covid recovery is nowhere to be seen except for the 0.5 percent.
Posted by: Minaa | Oct 8 2024 19:01 utc | 62
Link: https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequences-us-ukraine-1964468
Posted by: Minaa | Oct 8 2024 19:02 utc | 63
Does it end with the US imploding under the weight of dollars returning home, after being rejected by the Global Majority?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 17:37 utc | 32
Nope, absolutely zero chance !
That's old gold standard, fixed exchange rate type thinking that no longer applies. That thinks a collapse would happen. Bretton Woods ended in 1971 Jeremy.
That and there is hardly any returning anyway as the vast majority already sit in the FED in security accounts. If everybody just dumped them or returned them as you say. Then they would just sit in reserve accounts as $'s instead of a Treasury bill or note.
China has all of these $'s sitting in their reserve account at the FED. After selling American's goods and services.
What do they do with these $'s ?
After China buys the US goods and services they need with them and after exchanging some for Yaun to pay their export workers what do they do with them Jeremy ?
They swap the $'s for a bunch of US treasuries.
So rather than sit in a reserve account at the FED they sit in a Security account at the FED. A Dollar account with Time and a coupon attached.
So now they decide to dump all of their US treasuries ( sending the $'s back to America meme) what happens ?
They just sit in a reserve account at the FED instead as cash. The reverse happens of when they swapped cash for a US treasury.
Now what are China going to do with these $'s in their reserve account at the FED ?
1. They can spend the $'s on US goods and services.
2. Invest in America as FDI - Foreign direct investment and all that entails.
3. Or they can exchange them for other currencies
4. Or buy more Treasuries
That's it that is the only choices they have. That's the only choices anybody has that holds $'s at the FED.
If they choose option 3 - exchange them for other currencies in a floating rate environment, you need a buyer and a seller or the exchange won't take place.
So if China wants to for example swap
$'s --------> Euro's
Then need other people wanting to swap
$'s <-------Euro's
What's just happened ?
The $'s haven't moved they are still in a reserve account at the FED. All that's changed is the ownership tag. The name on the reserve account has changed. From China to someone else.
None of this collapses America. In fact it makes the $ stronger as all of these $'s are taxed out of the system and makes them scarce. They also probably sell more US goods and services as others try and get rid of their $'s.
So zero chance of US imploding under the weight of dollars returning home. As they move from treasury accounts held at the FED to reserve accounts at the FED hardly anybody even notices.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:07 utc | 64
Posted by: Minaa | Oct 8 2024 19:01 utc | 62
They keep targeting Crimea from the start of smo.
They kept failing.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:12 utc | 65
@ jpc | Oct 8 2024 18:15 utc | 45
The US still rule the satellite reconnaissance sector.
The opening act of a global conflict will see the total destruction of all commercial/military satellites. The High Ground will be shredded into an artificial micro-asteroid belt. Musk re Mars will be pissed.
Which allied group of combatants have essentially negligable capacity to conduct effective military operations sans orbital ISR & Comms relay networks ?
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 8 2024 17:11 utc | 24
##########
I wasn't referencing China. I was referencing that to be American means to exploit another party rather than cooperate with them.
If not Blacks, or Hispanics domestically, then someone abroad.
America produces little. It's the Mickey Mouse intellectual property kingdom.
If America has to reduce (under duress) its foreign footprint, it will look for people to exploit closer to home, IMO.
Mexico has cheap labor, and Canada has mineral wealth. I'd expect America to wring everything it can out of both countries in the absence of Global South "opportunities".
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 19:13 utc | 67
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:07 utc | 64
Hmm...
Here’s two words that MMT-ers absolutely hate...
“Gold, bitchezz”.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:13 utc | 68
@31 Sun of Alamaba
Foret the UK; the soft power exercised by the globalists/Warparty/neocons is absolute in the UK. There is no real debate about the causes of the Ukraine war and the Nato propaganda is ubiquitous and consistent in all the mainstream media. Sure, you will see no Ukraine flags and people are tired of the war but I would say there is zero chance of getting the Brits to rebel; they are convinced 'Putin is Hitler and wants to rebuild the Soviet Union'.
They could not be more effectively mislead than they are already.
Regards
Judge Barbier
Posted by: Judge Barbier | Oct 8 2024 19:18 utc | 69
The twenty percent or so of Ukrainian territory that Russia has occupied/annexed contains eighty percent of Ukraine's pre-war GDP. Even if this impossible peace deal went through, the EU and NATO would be trapped with perpetually subsidizing a deeply dysfunctional and incredibly impoverished Ukraine.
Posted by: Monos | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 70
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:07 utc | 64
And in a nearby future China will ask us to buy China goods with reminbi while using usd from expiring treasuries to buy the fraction of goods they buy from us.
Bye bye usd.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 71
This is typical of the drivel from the West.
They exist in a hermetically sealed pod and spend all their time sniffing each others farts and believing each others lies. This nonsense from the FT is the result of 12 months hard negotiations between the US morons. the German dipshits, the French cretins and the British braindead.
It never occurs to them that the Russians will determine the terms.
The West is fucked.
Posted by: Bilejones | Oct 8 2024 19:29 utc | 72
So, the FT lays out a Minsk III trial balloon for the "Not Agreement Capable" in the US/US/EU. The Rest of the World (ROTW) will acquiesce to Russia rejecting the ROTW's Forever War and turning Ukraine into The Ukraine.
Posted by: Eric Blair | Oct 8 2024 19:29 utc | 73
A large proportion of the $ 36 trillion and counting sitting in the FED as US treasuries in security accounts. Is held by foreigners or pension funds or insurance companies etc.
If people " send their $'s back to America )
If the $36 trillion was swapped back to cash and Now held in a reserve account at the FED. Instead of a Security account. " Sending $'s back to America "
Which is just a 2 column excel spreadsheet operation at the FED.
Now what ?
Now what are these people going to do with their $36 trillion that they Now hold as cash rather than US treasuries.
Nothing that can collapse America, only make the economy and US growth Stronger. Also, As the $'s get taxed out of existence as they are spent ( people getting rid of their $'s), Probably in the long term makes the $ stronger not weaker.
Only foreigners can access them early and swap them back to cash. Pensioners who save in a pension can't, insurance companies can't so the full $36 trillion and counting held as treasury securities will never be swapped back into cash in On go anyway.
It will be a mere trickle if foreigners decide to dump their US treasuries for cash ( send their $'s back to America) and like I say then what are they going to do with their cash considering their options are very limited.
De- Dollarisation was never about collapsing America. It was about taking control away from America. Allowing countries to use their own currencies and free themselves from $ debt bondage.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
De- Dollarisation was never about collapsing America. It was about taking control away from America. Allowing countries to use their own currencies and free themselves from $ debt bondage.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
#################
That is the key point, IMO.
America's collapse or not will depend upon the choices made by America.
If America cannot be a parasite, then it will have to try something different. If it continues to act in a parasitic manner when countries have other options, that will be entirely on the Americans.
All existence is change. Those who refuse to change often get obliterated.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 8 2024 19:37 utc | 75
"That’s an intriguing theory, and one I hadn’t considered. It does seem to be a very high-risk approach though, in that those holding ‘sanctioned’ dollars are effectively on the receiving end of a US default."
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 18:46 utc | 58
The Empire is ruthless, relentless and reprobate; but they are not stupid; they realize de dollarization is occurring and if those excess dollars show up on US shores the Empire is fucked.
Today the $58 billion dollar 3 year US Treasury auction was a mess with foreign investors fleeing such that direct dealers got stuck with 20% of the float-now that the Fed is losing $60 billion a month off its balance sheet and can't go and take those unwanted 3 year bonds off the direct dealer's hands because QE has been suspended-when it starts again (IMO) when the Presidential elections are over (may take longer than November) QE will return, so will inflation and gold will be over $3k per ounce.
Hence, the desperation of American 'diplomats' to feed the fire for MORE WOAR ; as without more pillaging more territories the Empire is finished-that's not to say WW3 won't happen those degenerates would rather blow up the whole planet than lose.
Now what are these people going to do with their $36 trillion that they Now hold as cash rather than US treasuries.Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
Buy gold?
You are Derek Henry and I claim my 5 tr oz...
Oh, while I’m here, you don’t happen to know what happened to Ukraine’s national gold reserves in 2014 do you?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:41 utc | 77
Now what are these people going to do with their $36 trillion that they Now hold as cash rather than US treasuries.Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
Buy gold?
You are Derek Henry and I claim my 5 tr oz...
Oh, while I’m here, you don’t happen to know what happened to Ukraine’s national gold reserves in 2014 do you?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:42 utc | 78
Now what are these people going to do with their $36 trillion that they Now hold as cash rather than US treasuries.Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
Buy gold?
You are Derek Henry and I claim my 5 tr oz...
Oh, while I’m here, you don’t happen to know what happened to Ukraine’s national gold reserves in 2014 do you?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:42 utc | 79
"It will be a mere trickle if foreigners decide to dump their US treasuries for cash ( send their $'s back to America) and like I say then what are they going to do with their cash considering their options are very limited."
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:32 utc | 74
Well for one take those dollars and buy gold (which almost all central banks are doing now) or real estate anywhere in the world or yuan or ruble or silver or copper or fine art or timber or a tractor or a mineral deposit or a factory-real shit-not like the US dollar.
"Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:07 utc | 64
And in a nearby future China will ask us to buy China goods with reminbi while using usd from expiring treasuries to buy the fraction of goods they buy from us.
Bye bye usd."
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 71
Agreed.
Apologies for the multiple postings; dontcha just love error 503...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:53 utc | 82
So, in the current circumstances, who is legally empowered to sign any terms of any settlement arrangements on behalf of the people of Ukraine, that Russia will recognise as being so empowered?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 16:06 utc | 7
You can forget about legality, and the answer to your question is... Blinken & Nuland.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 8 2024 19:56 utc | 83
And in a nearby future China will ask us to buy China goods with reminbi while using usd from expiring treasuries to buy the fraction of goods they buy from us.
Bye bye usd."
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 71
Totally agree 100% and we'll thought through !
They already do and have done for decades
Here:
https://new-wayland.com/blog/anatomy-of-an-fx-transaction/
None of this collapses Anerica.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 19:57 utc | 84
Posted by: Monos | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 70
Correct, with the slight proviso that it will be a deeply dysfunctional and incredibly impoverished EU attempting to subsidise an equally deeply dysfunctional and incredibly impoverished Ukraine.
~~~
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 71
Correct.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 19:58 utc | 85
The ft article only shows how stupid and arrogant the western leaders and merdias are.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 8 2024 20:00 utc | 86
@ Ossi, §14; Honzo, §22; Judge Barbier,§69:
Agree with you guys.
"The Ukraine" will be removed from the map.
The six oblasts in and around Kiev will be constituted as "Chornarus" and given a status similar to Belarus.
All the rest of the erstwhile Ukraine east of its 1939 borders will join Russia as oblasts.
West of the 1939 border, i.e. Galicia and Bessarabia, will be up for bargaining: Putin doesn´t really want them but will occupy them indefinitely if he has to.
On condition that Poland & Rumania leave NATO (they don´t have to leave the EU), Putin would probably consider a peace that gave Galicia to Poland and Bessarabia to Rumania. Poland and Rumania would also have to dismantle their Aegis Ashore systems and demilitarize in the sense of no foreign troops allowed.
And you´re right about England, Judge. Goebbels would be impressed with the BBC´s "Putin is Hitler" and "Ukraine is Czechoslovakia" tropes. And all the press there survive on government ads.
England has been anaesthetized by corporate propaganda.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 8 2024 20:05 utc | 87
Posted by: Naive | Oct 8 2024 19:56 utc | 83
Not so sure about Nuland having a say any more. I got the feeling she has been sidelined, shunted out of the way, out of the main Ukraine policy-setting circle.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 20:05 utc | 88
Outraged | Oct 8 2024 18:49 utc | 59--
Thanks for your usual, outstanding reply. PeterAU1 will be glad to see your comments!
As Crooke told Judge Napolitano, all the US has are nukes, and even they're dodgy as a substack I wrote weeks ago noted.
Perhaps the aim of the Neoliberal Parasites is to demilitarize the Outlaw US Empire for that's what appears to be happening.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 20:05 utc | 88
Please, do not underestimate her nuisance power and will. Especially if she is in the background.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 8 2024 20:17 utc | 90
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang, §85:
Yep.
And Japan will be left holding the bag, followed by China, UK and Luxemburg (i.e. EU).
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 8 2024 20:17 utc | 91
Doctorow on the latest Nima is less reserved than usual, it's a worthwhile watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l6yhN3Uq8Q
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 8 2024 20:34 utc | 92
Well ,financial times and whole British media along with bry spy agencies need to face real violence because it is British who plotted and are running Ukraine war .they should get treatment they deserve.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 8 2024 20:35 utc | 93
Well ,financial times and whole British media along with bry spy agencies need to face real violence because it is British who plotted and are running Ukraine war .they should get treatment they deserve.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 8 2024 20:35 utc | 94
Posted by: Mario | Oct 8 2024 19:20 utc | 71
You are definitely on the right track Mario. Bravo sir !
But,
People who say -
"If you make exporting more difficult you will eventually make importing more expensive as foreign reserves are depleted and borrowing foreign currency gets more expensive (and or the pound devaluates)."
That's fixed exchange rate thinking. Bretton Woods ended in 1971.
One of The biggest myths ever told apart from the tax payer money myth was....
" Exports is what allows you to pay for imports "
Simply not true it is a myth . What many think de- dollarisation is about . That countries needed to get their hands on $'s to be able to buy imports.
I will use the UK as an example Mario so here goes.
Money is what allows the UK to pay for imports. That's why we have a trade deficit. Not Exports
HERE :
https://new-wayland.com/blog/anatomy-of-an-fx-transaction/
See - that's what banks are for Mario. As you can clearly see from the link provided.
Imports are paid for with Sterling promises. Hence why the UK has a trade deficit in a floating exchange rate environment.
The truth is trade is balanced Mario.
The balancing export product is 'Sterling savings' - mere promises. Which tells us that 'abroad' is sending UK things for nothing material in return as Thatcher destroyed the manufacturing industry - meaning they have no better alternative.
They send the UK the goods and services and we give them 'Sterling savings' mere promises that they hold at the BOE. The trade is balanced by mere Sterling promises Mario.
Mere " sterling promises " buys imports. Exports don't buy imports.
America is the same as the UK. Mere " $ promises " buys imports. Exports don't buy imports.
De- Dollarisation won't change that simple fact. De- Dollarisation won't collapse America.
The shift to manufacturing in the 3rd world means they need to export to the West or their economies collapse. Why the Western currencies have remained valuable.
These countries that have chosen an export your way to growth model. Will continue to accept sterling promises and $ promises and get nothing material in return apart from £'s and $'s held at the FED and the BOE.
That will continue until these countries realise they are being had, eliminate the export overhang and move to DOMESTIC consumption. Move away from an exporting your way to growth model.
Even then it won't collapse the US or the UK but it does mean a far more fairer world and allows other countries to choose their own path.
Hope this helps.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 20:35 utc | 95
Posted by: canuck | Oct 8 2024 19:38 utc | 76
Yeah, I read that news about the US 3-yr bond auction and agree with your take.
As for this:
that's not to say WW3 won't happen those degenerates would rather blow up the whole planet than lose.to my mind this is why Russia is conducting the SMO at the pace it is, plus China moving ever so slowly but subtly in its overseas commercial relationships and infrastructure investments.
Don’t make any sudden moves while the madman is swinging his gun around.
Or, defusing a bomb needs a slow, careful and methodical approach.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2024 20:40 utc | 96
Satanic evil BBC
bbc”
BBC is a loyal, eager mouthpiece for the ground zero of western greed, cruelty and connivance - The City of London.BBC=Boy Buggers in Cahoots
26 November, 2014 20:29
Anonymous said...
british b—astrd corporation is purely an English imperialism propaganda organ and nothing else. It cannot do right journalism even for its own british constituent part. It is a means of lies and deceit done for English pirate nation.Destroy all bbc and liar british journalists by treating them as enemy combatant which they are. they facilitated and caused war crimes and havoc in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria ,Libya and now in Ukraine.BBC is the public propaganda arm of M I6.The CIA and mossad and MI5 MI6 etc are only tax dollar funded terrorist groups paid for with the taxes just like terrorist liar BBC. quote “In reality, BBC's World Service is directly funded by the US State Department and is insidious propaganda admittedly designed to politically subvert not only China, but Iran, Russia, and many other nations perceived by Wall Street and London as intolerable competition.”
26 November, 2014 20:30
Anonymous said...
In fact in the 1988 American election B.B.C. had invited the chief drug dealer of BAT-i.e. british american tobacco-(who of course is an englishman) and there was another American there. During discussion of Ducassis' candidature the B.B.C. anchor man suggested to the American that the opponent of bush was hardly an American as he looked to dark and was Greek, the country of geek being too much near Africa. It really happened. This shows a few things. According to B.B.C. not only Blacks were not American but also all those who the english agents have labelled ethnic Americans. In fact B.B.C. openly said (in that program-usually B.B.C. does not reveal its evil intention so easily) that the American means actually anglo-saxons. The whole propaganda and racial slur was provided by BBC.the way George H.W. Bush finished off Michael Dukakis in 1988. Lee Atwater, Bush’s smear manager, picked up Al Gore’s use of Horton – the black rapist furloughed for a weekend, under a law passed by Gov. Dukakis – and retooled it, throwing in slurs about Dukakis as being some foreign Outsider Don't confuse that white includes Germans either. The same English agents (in America) who created a monstrous film like ``birth of nation`` are the same people who crated prohibition only because many German immigrants were drinking bear and they did not like it. It is the same england sympathiser crowd who went on killing blacks, Irish,etc -now how come about that every President who wanted to take stand independent of Britain in America on Domestic or Foreign has either been made impotent or killed(Abraham Lincoln, Kennedy, Robert Kennedy)To understand that one has to remember British propaganda machinary(all sorts of media,BBB.,, govt,etc) and brititish agents in America .Britain has always acted like a heyena(or dog) who let two or Three Lions(OF Europe like France, Germans Spanish Italians-all aristocratic races compared to pirate turned shopkeepers of England)fight amongst and then the kill(loot) would be enjoyed by the hayena.
26 November, 2014
Anonymous said...
in fact it was not America but england which asked for ABM against Russia. BBC spy journalists were harassing presidential candidate Gore not to go ahead with Florida recount on ground” ally like britian want to conclude AMB deployment in Yorkshire as soon as possible so there should be no delay in govt. formation.in other word accept fraudulent win of bush for sake of england ! “
26 November, 2014 20:32
Anonymous said...
“evil BBC “
“Iraq war”
7 months before iraq war the BBc was already in the know of war plan by war criminal tony blair and bbc report smugly said in the September 2002 report that blair and bush just have to invent and make a case for war against iraq because those two had already decided in july 2002 about going for war against weakened Iraq. bbc propaganda was being readied for justification of the same war.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 8 2024 20:42 utc | 97
The six oblasts in and around Kiev will be constituted as "Chornarus"Posted by: John Marks | Oct 8 2024 20:05 utc | 87
More appropriately the rump Ukraine should be called "Задний проход" (The anus)
Posted by: Drifter | Oct 8 2024 20:45 utc | 98
Which allied group of combatants have essentially negligable capacity to conduct effective military operations sans orbital ISR & Comms relay networks ?
Posted by: Outraged | Oct 8 2024 19:13 utc | 66
That's going to be one amazing night if the sky is clear.
Include the trans ocean cables and the world is back to an unknown place for most.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 8 2024 21:05 utc | 99
Last comment on the matter.
It is not rocket science.
The shift to manufacturing in the 3rd world means they need to export to the West or their economies collapse. Why the Western currencies have remained valuable.
Countries that choose to export their way to growth have an insatiable appetite for $'s. They have no other choice.
Where's the proof ?
People holding US treasuries have exploded not diminished, so there is no de- dollarisation happening. It is just a game of musical chairs.
HERE:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
None of that will change until countries realise they are being had, eliminate the export overhang and move to DOMESTIC consumption. You’ll note that the Japanese have only just done that, so it ain’t something that is going to happen overnight.
Something that BRICS won't change either. These countries will still be being had, unless they move to more import substitution and DOMESTIC consumption. Or within BRICS They'll just be hoarding something else that they'll never use.
Way too many people via old gold standard, fixed exchange rate thinking have got both BRICS and De- Dollarisation completely wrong.
I will be proven right - Because America will not collapse, because both BRICS and De- Dollarisation was NEVER about that. It is the very last thing Putin and China want to happen.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 8 2024 21:06 utc | 100
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To the Last Ukrainian !
Posted by: Exile | Oct 8 2024 15:37 utc | 1