How Russia Is Overwhelming Ukrainian Frontlines
There seems to be a bit of a panic along the Ukrainian front lines. Several units, for lack of men, have recently left positions they were supposed to hold. The daily progress of the Russian forces along the line is increasing.
The medium level of the Ukrainian military seems to understand that their defense is breaking down.
Strana reports (machine translation):
Deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Maxim Zhorin called for preparing the Dnipropetrovsk region for defense.
...
"We need to prepare the Dnipropetrovsk region for defense today. We should not constantly move from city to city, while at the same time hastily preparing these cities for defense. All this needs to be planned, and build a strong line of defense ahead of time. Instead of waiting for the front line to move to another locality, " Zhorin said.
The 3rd Assault Brigade is part of the fascist Azov organization. Politicians also chime in:
Mariana Bezuglaya urged to prepare circular defense of Pavlograd and Izyum
MP Mariana Bezuglaya said that it is necessary to prepare a circular defense of Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovsk region, and Izyum, Kharkiv region.
...
"Selidovo has already been mostly conquered by Russians. They entered Kupyansk. Half of the Kursk region has already been returned. It is necessary to prepare a circular defense of Pavlograd and Izyum, " Bezuglaya said.
Izyum is 50 kilometer west of the current frontline. The distance from the eastern frontline to Pavlovgrad is about 100 kilometer. Dnipropetrovsk, shorter Dnipro, is 150 kilometer from the eastern frontline and 100 kilometer from the southern frontline.
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That commanders and politicians are calling for new defenses so far from the current front lines tells us that they expect the Ukrainian military to soon lose the ground in between.
The reasons for that becomes obvious when one recognizes the current correlation of forces and the overwhelming capacity of Russian weapons.
In February 2022 the Russian military units entered Ukraine in peace configuration (i.e. as Battalion Tactical Groups) with a total of less that 100,000 men. The Ukrainian army at that time had about 260,000 men who were soon joined by a high number of volunteers.
The current Russian forces in Ukraine are now in regular war time brigade formations with a total of several hundred thousands of men. There have sufficient reserves to rotate frontline units every few days. The Ukrainian military has likewise grown in size but the growth has mostly occurred in the back. Logistic troops and various staff formations far from the frontline are trying their best to stay away from the fighting. Its frontline forces have actually shrunk and are now thought to be below 100,000 men. Those troops are no longer motivated. They lack experienced leaders and have been in their positions without rotations for weeks if not months.
A lack of artillery ammunition has been a continuous problem for the Ukrainian army but it recently got better. There are now sufficient supplies but that is likely only because the number of Ukrainian artillery guns has been shrinking. Nearly half of the Ukrainian artillery guns reported as damaged or destroyed by the Russian daily reports are now of foreign provenance. Soviet era D-20 and D-30 guns, which once provided the backbone of Ukrainian artillery formations, are not yet rare but more and more missing.
But what is really killing the Ukrainian army, in ever higher numbers, is the Russian superiority in distance weapons.
Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 22:09 UTC · Oct 25, 2024Number of Shahed-type strike drones, launched by Russia against Ukraine during last 30 days (red on chart) reached 1,780.
Also number of glide bombs launched by Russian aviation in last 7 days (yellow on chart) for the first time is over 1,000 (1,037 as reported by UA general staff)
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The Shahed type drones, more than 50 per day(!) now, are hitting Ukrainian infrastructure and industry far from the frontline. They are overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. Even on its best days the Ukrainian military now claims to shot down only half of them. That is down from claims of successfully destroying 90+% of all incoming drones.
But the Russian glide bombs - some 140 per day - are an even more serious issue. The FABs, which carry one ton or more of explosives, are launched by Russian fighter planes from outside of the Ukrainian air defense envelope. They glide some 80 kilometer before hitting their designated targets with utter precision. No field fortification and no regular basement of a Ukrainian town house can withstand such a hit.
The FABs, against which Ukraine has no means to defend, are destroying the Ukrainian units which hold the front lines.
The Ukrainian military will obviously lose this contest. Moving the defense lines back, and building fortifications around Dnipro, will not change anything. As soon as Russian troops come near to those lines all fortifications will be demolished. Only then will the Russian's move in.
It is more than high time for the Ukrainian military to concede that its has no way of winning and that it, moreover, has lost the ability to defend the country.
The Ukrainian military commander in chief must press the politicians to seek peace.
Posted by b on October 26, 2024 at 14:21 UTC | Permalink
next page »NATO sees it differently than you B, 100km means another 6-8 months of weakening Russia regardless of the cost to Ukraine. This war is unique in that the natives have a bigger gun pointed to the back of their head (NATO) than the gun they face (Russia).
It'd be like the western front of WW1 with just the French fighting the Germans and the brits in the background like they are now.
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 14:39 utc | 2
"weakening Russia regardless of the cost to Ukraine"
where's evidence of Russia weakening?
Posted by: annie | Oct 26 2024 14:42 utc | 3
And pushback continues against the Ukrainian military press-gangs:
In Odessa, civilians kicked out employees of the [TCC] from the Seventh Kilometer market – - Mass mediaThis morning, on October 26, employees of the [TCC] and joint venture visited the Seventh Kilometer market in Odessa. After allegedly detaining a group of men, civilians pushed military commissars out of the market
This is reported by RegioNews with reference to local Telegram channels.
It is reported that a crowd of Odessa residents forced out the servicemen who were forced to leave it. Officially, this information has not been confirmed by law enforcement officers.
Also in the public pages it is reported that the allegedly detained men were released. In the social network , information appeared that the administration of the" Seventh Kilometer " confirmed that there was indeed a conflict between visitors and employees of the [TCC] and the joint venture on the territory of the market.
"At the moment, the conflict is settled, an official arrived at the scene after communicating with whom people dispersed. The detained people were released. No one went to the medical center with injuries, " the report says.
Irina Tkach, Deputy director of the administration of the Seventh Kilometer market, said in a comment Суспільномуto Suspilny that employees of the [TCC] really came to the territory in the morning. People-entrepreneurs or market visitors, the administration doesn't know for sure — have started to drive them away. According to her, after a police official arrived at the scene, the conflict was resolved, everyone was released and people dispersed.
https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/odesskaya/1729942308-v-odesi-z-rinku-somiy-kilometr-tsivilni-vignali-spivrobitnikiv-ttsk-zmi (via translation add-on, with “shopping center” corrected to [TCC]; h/t @Moscow Exile)
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 14:43 utc | 4
Surely the word has got out within the Ukrainian military that if Trump wins it is probably all over ?
Now the US election is days away. If I was in the Ukrainian military. I would be looking at ways and do anything to wait and see if Trump wins. Why die when you might be able to save your own life in a few weeks ?
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 14:57 utc | 6
It is more than high time for the Ukrainian military to concede that its has no way of winning and that it, moreover, has lost the ability to defend the country.
The Ukrainian military commander in chief must press the politicians to seek peace.
The problem is Ukrainian leadership is not interested in defending the country. It is interested instead in grabbing Western Treasure. So the military and patriotic logic does not apply. Ukrops must overthrow their government themselves or the West must tyre of giving away our Treasure. Otherwise ukrop leadership will just consume all it can of ukrop nation to fatten their overseas accounts and try to run away at the proper time. Nobody seems to undertand this simple logic.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 26 2024 15:07 utc | 7
It would be great if they could re-take Kupyansk by Christmas - Seversk and Chasov Yar are on my bucket list as well, but Kupyansk would be a sweet, sweet reconquest after its humiliating concession.
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Oct 26 2024 15:10 utc | 8
thanks b...
your quote "The Ukrainian military commander in chief must press the politicians to seek peace."
isn't that what zaluzhny tried to do?? apparently there is the threat from the azov nazi freaks which doesn't help... this crazy war should have stopped a long time ago, but it is a financial war too and those folks have a lot to lose..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 15:10 utc | 9
"MP Mariana Bezuglaya said that it is necessary to prepare a circular defense of Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovsk region, and Izyum, Kharkiv region.
..."
I mentioned for quite a while an arc from kharkiv, Izyum, kramatorsk, Prokovsk, Pokrovske, Zhaporyzhhia.
But it's already under stress at Prokovsk.
And "brave" azov will probably want an out from the lozova front...
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 26 2024 15:12 utc | 10
Thanks for the posting b On the last Ukraine thread I posted a comment I am moving here because of its relevance
ZH has a posting up with the title
Putin: Russia Willing To Reach 'Rational Compromise' With Ukraine To End War
the quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a late night interview on the last day (Thurs.) of the BRICS summit hosted in Kazan, and in it he presented Russia as open to compromise in order to achieve peace with Ukraine. He was asked how he envisioned the conflict ending during the interview, the contents of which were released Friday. "Any outcome should be favorable to Russia, and I say that directly," he said according to translation by state media.
"Russia has never refused to engage with Ukraine on various initiatives but will not compromise its interests in any negotiations," Putin emphasized. "Moscow does not rule out compromises on its part as long as they are rational," the Russian leader was further quoted in RT as saying.That's when he revealed some new information regarding efforts to jump-start talks:
Ukraine has approached Russia twice with proposals through Turkish mediation but subsequently walked back its initiatives. "When we agreed, it turned out that the Ukrainian side had already withdrawn. This happened twice," he revealed.
He explained this episode further as follows:
"We agreed to it, and the next day [Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky] publicly announced that he will not negotiate anything," the president said. "This is irrational behavior, which is hard to predict. No plans can be based on this foundation. So there is no sense in discussing whether we would reach an agreement and what it would be," Putin explained.
He also warned that Russia "must conduct its special military operation with full commitment and dismiss any notions of the enemy’s fatigue."
Putin tried to bat down the accusations of Western officials and media reports which portray him as intentionally isolating Moscow from any dialogue. He said he has "never shunned contacts" on the diplomatic front."When we hear… that I avoid talking to some European leaders, let me tell you: that is a lie," he stressed. "We did not reject and are not rejecting anything. If somebody wants to renew relations with us, they are welcome. We reiterated that, but we do not impose ourselves."
He once again emphasized the possibility of ending the Ukraine war but in a way that results in both sides making reasonable compromises. But he has many times vowed to never give up the four annexed territories in the east, and certainly not Crimea either.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 26 2024 15:20 utc | 11
"The Ukrainian military commander in chief must press the politicians to seek peace."
Even if he did - he would soon be removed from his position - for he is not in charge- no this war will play out quite a bit longer.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 26 2024 15:20 utc | 12
They making major moves too.
Russia in talks with BRICS over precious metals exchange https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-talks-with-brics-over-precious-metals-exchange-2024-10-24/
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Oct 26 2024 15:27 utc | 13
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 26 2024 15:20 utc | 15
That raises another point: where are the constitutionally legitimate politicians in Ukraine who could be pressed to seek peace? The presidents term of office has long since expired, as has the parliamentary term.
It’s a junta, not a legitimate government; a characteristic of a failed state.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 15:29 utc | 14
What NATO 'understands' is envelopes with cash and instructions. The sanctions are more aimed at separating the world into those who allow our predatory practices and those who won't. No money to be made off the latter so cut off all trade. Now since our entire empire is built on rapine, theft and murder - who is left for our elites to prey upon? That's right, Europe is a fat carcass just sitting there when no one else will let us 'build nations & bring democracy.' The empire has a voracious appetite and will eat it's own tail at the end.
Posted by: Trumpeter | Oct 26 2024 15:30 utc | 15
Ukraine Weekly Update (BRICS Of Hope), 25th October 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-brics-of-hope
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 26 2024 15:32 utc | 16
Hmmm, withdraw the fascist bully boys to prepare rear positions way behind the lines. Why am I not surprised by this news??
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 26 2024 15:33 utc | 17
Harried, harassed and haunted; the Ukie military, according to B's suppositions is now down to around 100,000 active frontline combat troops. Regularly rotated Russian forces on those same fronts may very well amount to three to five times the number of effectives.
So what the Ukes face is an overwhelming force deficit. Short on artillery, armor and utterly spent in air-cover, the Ukes are merely meat for the grinder. Most of them realize that. Fortified cities and villages in the highly built-up Donbass are frittering away like bacon in a hot frypan. The gaps between them are so lightly defended that R.U. forces can slice through them like a hot knife through a chunk of butter. Then come the encirclement moves. Trapped like mice, those poor conscripted defenders should have only one thought in their collective minds: SURRENDER. The Russians have treated their fellow Slav prisoners very well according to international standards...not so much the mercenaries...and why not.
Dniepropetrovsk is now only some 60 miles from the southern front. Only a thin smattering of those fortified settlements stands between that key large city and open steppe country. Seems like the rains and mud are not happening anytime soon. Perhaps the R.U. has retained the weather "modification" systems with which the UlSSR combatted the still highly active U$$A puppet regime clear back in 1977.
Wondering if the grifters and grafters in Kiev have all their travel plans fully readied before the Fall falls into Winter and the lights go out.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 26 2024 15:34 utc | 18
Excellent piece b - very informative - thanks.
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Oct 26 2024 15:36 utc | 19
Reminds me of Marshal Zhukov's Reminiscences, when they were wrapping up the same front. He said,
On his return from the Teheran Conference, Stalin said: "Roosevelt has given his word that extensive action will be mounted in France in 1944. I believe he will keep his word. But even if he does not, our own forces are sufficient to complete the rout of Nazi Germany."
As Stalin also said, a bit later.
In discussing Germany's ability to continue the armed struggle, we all agreed that her main problem would be the exhaustion of her manpower and resources at a time when the Soviet Union would receive reinforcements from partisan units and the people who had remained in occupied territory, now that the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Lithuania and other areas had been liberated. Besides, the opening of the Second Front compelled Germany to strengthen her forces in the west.The question was what Hitler's military leaders could hope for in the given situation.
Stalin's answer was: "They are like a gambler betting his last coin. All their hopes were pinned on the British and Americans. In deciding to wage war against the Soviet Union, Hitler took into account the imperialist circles in Britain and the USA, who totally shared his thinking. And not without reason: the did everything they could to direct the military actions of the Wehrmacht against the Soviet Union."
Molotov added that Hitler would probably attempt at any cost to make a separate agreement with the US and British government circles.
"That is true," said Stalin, "but Roosevelt and Churchill will not agree to a deal with Hitler. They will try to attain their political aims in Germany by setting up an obedient government, not through collusion with the Nazis, who have lost all the trust of the people."
The Stalin asked me: "Can our troops begin liberating Poland, reach the Vistula without a stop, and in what sector can we commit the 1st Polish Army which has now become an effective fighting force?"
"Not only can our troops reach the Vistula," I replied, "but they have to secure good bridgeheads beyond it which are essential for further offensive operations in the strategic direction of Berlin."
Ukraine has been just about to lose in some circles for many months now.
And NATO has grown more and more involved.
To the last Ukrainian does not mean the war ends when the last Ukrainian dies…
Posted by: jim c. | Oct 26 2024 15:42 utc | 21
Fall falls into Winter
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 26 2024 15:34 utc | 21
Nice title for something.
Where did B mention sub 100.000 active AFU? almost a month ago milites and I discussed the subject and were on a sub 150.000 active (attack capable, maybe 3 times as many only capable of holding lines) estimate, but that was that. Did I miss something in one of B's threads?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 26 2024 15:44 utc | 22
Fall falls into Winter
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 26 2024 15:34 utc | 21
Nice title for something.
Where did B mention sub 100.000 active AFU? almost a month ago milites and I discussed the subject and were on a sub 150.000 active (attack capable, maybe 3 times as many only capable of holding lines) estimate, but that was that. Did I miss something in one of B's threads?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 26 2024 15:44 utc | 25
Sorry, skipped some lines, it's in this one
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 26 2024 15:45 utc | 23
Posted by: annie | Oct 26 2024 14:42 utc | 4
If a country loses 60,000 plus young men in their prime, would you not say that weakens a country? What about the injured and disabled? How many Russian men are going to be unable to work, have a family? Again, this weakens Russia. There are many more ways Russia is being weakened by this proxy war. That you think otherwise is nonsensical.
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 15:47 utc | 24
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 15:47 utc | 27
Now do the same calculation for Ukraine.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 15:51 utc | 25
[email protected] sure likes to fling boogers at Russia. At least he is not changing his tune, Media bs aside. Again Russia took the bate and Zman snubbed them.
Dude should have been tapped long ago....
Cheers M
......one man's "rational", is another man's "are you f'n nuts"...... hopefully Mr Putin is not nuts, and his Partners start acting somewhat rational.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 15:59 utc | 26
Maybe. A bit.
I mean, for sure, RFA has done better the last week, than the beginning of OCT (which was worse than SEP). It's still not some classic rout. UFA has lots of bite and the RFA goes slow. I see that in the kmsq/day.
Also, one can't simultaneously say that UFA is collapsing and then excuse a very low rate of territory conversion. (Would take years to take Donbass, e.g.) I mean one or the other. (1) Muh attrition and territory doesn't matter. Or (2) making progress on territory.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2024 16:10 utc | 27
Now do the same calculation for Ukraine.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 15:51 utc | 28
What? For a country more than 5 times smaller and taking more than 5 times the casualties ?
If I had to make an educated guess I’d say 30 times worse.
And as trol…people like to remind that Ukraine is still holding after almost 1.000 days, then they might consider that RF would then be able to hold 80 years. At least.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 26 2024 16:14 utc | 28
"It is more than high time for the Ukrainian military to concede that its has no way of winning and that it, moreover, has lost the ability to defend the country."
It's never been truer. I'm really starting to feel bad for all those press ganged Ukrainians being sent into the meat grinder.
For those about to die: wake up and fight your terrible masters in Kiev! You're gonna die anyway, might as well do it to save your people from the usurpers in power.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 26 2024 16:16 utc | 29
Trumpeter | Oct 26 2024 15:30 utc | 18
The empire has a voracious appetite and will eat its own tail at the end.
---
Will or has? What do you think replacement, woke and forever war is all about?
First, eliminate anyone with living memory of an balanced cultural polity (economy, education, civic duty) by substituting a neo feudal peasant class to be ruled by junta.
Second, destroy the very foundation of civil society by attacking family structure, stability and generational support systems.
Three, engage in inciting world wide regime change, civil war and major state conflict to siphon off resources to fund the MIC.
Appears to me as done, done and done. If one is honest, it was a clever plan to handle the domestic sphere as part of an overall strategy of total global conquest and might have worked except for one tiny problem.
You know, those pesky ruskies and chinks et al who not only fought back, but actually won. Damn.
Posted by: Markw | Oct 26 2024 16:19 utc | 30
I think attrition is more important that territory, at this stage. Not just men, but weapons - the more Patriots, artillery shells, and pieces that get turned into steppe-scrap, the better. Because it is now at the critical stage where the West is running out and has to give a lot of that away to Israel, who plays the role of the wife, while Zelensky is the side-chick who is only good for a casual screw.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 26 2024 16:19 utc | 31
For tge USA this is an ideal war. They are weakening Russua for peanuts. Ukrainians are cheap and for them this is also an ideal war as they are allowd to die while killing Russians. There is some discontent in Odessa but that is almist nothing. The Kursk suicide mission still goes on and there are no mutinies there.
So, for now, only Russia really wants peace.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 26 2024 16:22 utc | 32
[email protected] country on the planet has a military that steps in and takes over when their is no legitimate civilian government, or steps in and removes an illegitimate one. Ukraine sacrificed their army, Russia obliged them. It's been suggested that it's up to Ukraine and it's citizens to end the conflict..... unfortunately Russia killed whatever resistance that was capable of doing it...the current Ukrainian military is made up of artisans and practitioners of social sciences, hardly capable of conducting a coup, never mind making a soup.....and the cadre of politicians and bureaucrats that created the mess are having brunch on the Lviv riviera......to refrains of Rocking in the Free World.....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 16:23 utc | 33
so sean... as the leader of russia, what would your next move be aside from knocking off zelensky?? lolol..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 16:25 utc | 34
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 15:47 utc | 27
#######
Defense is the cost of doing business in life.
The Russians allow Ukraine to get NATO missiles while murdering ethnic Russians, what sort of future is that?
At some point, one must make a stand or be destroyed anyway.
Living on one's knees is no way to live at all. The whole of the Resistance feels the same way.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 16:27 utc | 35
As with Palestine, this conflict should not and must not end until the Resistance goals are reached.
Demilitarization and de-Nazification.
First the parts of the former Ukraine (404) which are now constitutionally Russia must be secured and rebuilt.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 16:30 utc | 36
The only posdible victory for Russia would be the humiliating defeat of the West.
There is just no other possibility.
But Putin does not undetstand the logic of Anglo Saxon mind.
In case of making a compromise they will attack Russia in few years again.
Posted by: vargas | Oct 26 2024 16:34 utc | 37
Surely the word has got out within the Ukrainian military that if Trump wins it is probably all over ?Now the US election is days away. If I was in the Ukrainian military. I would be looking at ways and do anything to wait and see if Trump wins. Why die when you might be able to save your own life in a few weeks ?
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 14:57 utc | 8
Ukrainian soldiers would probably need to take into account that if Trump wins, his inauguration presumably would be scheduled for January 20, 2025.
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 26 2024 16:34 utc | 38
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 15:51 utc | 28
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 16:27 utc | 39
My comment #2 was about NATO weakening Russia by prolonging its support for Ukraine. Comment #4 asked how Russia was being weakened. My comment #27 was in reply to comment #4.
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 16:40 utc | 39
@ vargas | Oct 26 2024 16:34 utc | 41
the west under usa leadership is becoming like an old man incapable to mounting an attack.. i say that from my own vantage point..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 16:40 utc | 40
Unlike MoA's informative reports and commenting on Ukraine, CBC dishes out only crap and disinfo. A sample of their current nonsense...
Significant Escalation
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6546895
"Could North and South Korea enter the Russia-Ukraine war?"
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 26 2024 16:44 utc | 41
It appears the only way the line collapses is via General Winter, if then. Ukraine remains a viable fighting force as demonstrated.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 26 2024 16:48 utc | 42
It might be time for Zelensky to put his escape plan to work and save his children, at least.
Posted by: lester | Oct 26 2024 17:01 utc | 43
The only posdible victory for Russia would be the humiliating defeat of the West.
There is just no other possibility.
But Putin does not undetstand the logic of Anglo Saxon mind.
In case of making a compromise they will attack Russia in few years again.Posted by: vargas | Oct 26 2024 16:34 utc | 41
Transcripts I've seen that quote Putin or Lavrov seem to make clear that Russian leaders understand the West to be "agreement-incapable." It follows that Russia would make "compromises" only on matters that are judged not to affect her security. A corollary would be that on security-related matters, Russia would be prepared to rectify, by force if necessary, the other side's anticipated violation of any ratified agreement on ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 26 2024 17:02 utc | 44
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2024 16:10 utc | 31
It's not one or the other.
Attrition will possibly cause the rout.
Territory gains are a poor predictor because war is not a linear process expecially in the end that will eventually be chaotic.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 26 2024 17:03 utc | 46
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 16:40 utc | 43
##########
I know Russia is losing some men. Again, that is the cost of doing business.
You're also not thinking about all of the Russian stock Ukrainians they have liberated.
People love a winner. After the SMO, people will immigrate to Russia. Unlike the West, Moscow isn't in denial about demographic issues.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 17:08 utc | 47
Also, how much weaker is Russia if it solidifies its hold on the Black Sea and has gained all of that prime agricultural land and mineral resources?
There is a very good chance that five years from now, the SMO will have completely "paid" for itself in blood and treasure.
What do the NATO countries have to show for NATO expansion and the defense of the Nazi regime?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 17:16 utc | 48
If / when the moment comes for the UKR strategic braintrust to abandon its 'fight-for-every-inch' strategy & begin to pull back to what it imagines (probably overoptimistically) as defensible lines, we stand to see a significant shift in the corresponding Russian strategy--which, I would argue, has consisted to this point in exploiting UKR's fervid commitment to pushing their forces into the Russian meat grinder.
One might look at RF tactics to this point as consistent with the aim of encouraging UKR *NOT* to retreat but to keep counter-attacking. It is far more convenient for RF to fight NATO's proxy forces in the SE, far away from NATO resupply, & isolated from NATO air envelopes.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Oct 26 2024 17:22 utc | 49
" where's evidence of Russia weakening?
Posted by: annie | Oct 26 2024 14:42 utc | 3 "
Anytime one of your people gets killed or maimed you are weakened. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian men are killed, the weaker Russia gets.
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 17:23 utc | 50
Newbie@1544
Now at age 80, some of my memories of details become unclear. However, that figure stuck in consciousness. Thus, I'm pretty sure of the source (amongst several) but cannot help you to zero in on the specifics and context.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 26 2024 17:27 utc | 51
If a country loses 60,000 plus young men in their prime, would you not say that weakens a country? What about the injured and disabled? How many Russian men are going to be unable to work, have a family? Again, this weakens Russia.
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 15:47 utc | 24
It shows that you have never lived in a country that wins her war.
Men leaving for a war consieve lots of babies, but men who return from a won war frontlines are making babies like rabbits. Pretty soon Russia will have lots of extra kids and those kids would be brought up like heroes' descenders. That will definitely not make Russia weaker.
Posted by: Baby Boomer | Oct 26 2024 17:28 utc | 52
" I know Russia is losing some men.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 26 2024 17:08 utc | 47 "
Understatement of the decade.
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 17:28 utc | 53
" It shows that you have never lived in a country that wins her war.
Men leaving for a war consieve lots of babies, but men who return from a won war frontlines are making babies like rabbits. Pretty soon Russia will have lots of extra kids and those kids would be brought up like heroes' descenders. That will definitely not make Russia weaker.
Posted by: Baby Boomer | Oct 26 2024 17:28 utc | 52 "
" The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population. The ethnic and religious groups that embrace the “traditional family values” Putin favors are predominantly non-Russian.
United Nations scenarios project Russia’s population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world’s population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent.
While Russia is hardly unique in facing declining birth rates and an aging population, high adult mortality, and infertility among both men and women, increasingly limited immigration and continuing brain drain make Russia’s situation particularly challenging. "
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 17:31 utc | 54
What's the percentage likelihood that RFA has all ukrops out of Kurdk by year end?
Probably under 50. No?
I remember when I said several months but within 2024 at beginning of the incursion, I got called a pessimist. Sounds like I wasn't pessimistic enough.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2024 17:36 utc | 55
About fatalities - which are always catastrophes - numbers are always relative.
Russia 2023:
Transportation segment Number of deaths 2023 2007
Auto transport and
related accidents on streets/roads 14,400 33,800
So war casualties since 2022, range from two to three fold 2007 road casualties rate and/or five to seven fold 2023 road casualties rate.
Certainly sustainable - while not desirable.
Especially when you consider that since the Ukraine Maidan Coup Russia gained along the line of 8 million loyal citizens and counting.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Oct 26 2024 17:44 utc | 56
Anytime one of your people gets killed or maimed you are weakened. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian men are killed, the weaker Russia gets.
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 17:23 utc | 50
It is sure that war is a tragedy and every soldiers death is tragic.
You may call Russia weakaned because of his casualties but it's army will even get bigger, it will grow to 1.5 million soldiers in the coming years. When your army grows in numbers it is not weakend.
If you not just look at the army but at the population in general I doubt that Russia will be weakend in a way which would be existentiell to Russia. But let's pretend you are right and Russia is weakend badly. What do you expect? That Russia will falter? That the western hyenas can feast on its carcass? This will never happen.
Posted by: NoName | Oct 26 2024 17:45 utc | 57
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 17:31 utc | 54
Riiiight. Russians will be making babies wlth shovels and washing machines' chips.
Posted by: Baby Boomer | Oct 26 2024 17:46 utc | 58
Moonie is one of these Antirussians whose hate or racism betrays them.
Incidentally arguments of birthrate or the "dying out of ethnic Russians" - or wherever you copied those doomerisms - are also some of the best arguments for intervening in Ukraine.
They stopped the killing of ethnic Russians. And sure, they have lost about 100000 soldiers, but already have gained 100 times that amount as loyal new citizens. How someone could spin a negative story out of this eludes me. Whine on.
Posted by: Roland | Oct 26 2024 17:52 utc | 59
Paul Damascene @ Oct 26 2024 17:22 utc | 49
One wonders what a sustainable position would entail. Taking the front back to Dnipro over winter seems like the obvious attempt, we know they won't do anything that sane. It would not do them much good anyway, if they shorten the front like and actually fortify it just means more FABs per mile.
Neither will they willingly accept neutrality any time soon. This war will stop at some NATO troops, once graft becomes impossible or when the soldiers go home.
Posted by: SOS | Oct 26 2024 17:56 utc | 60
[email protected] no fear of the Zelinski Cult Following, on par with, hmmm..... Nasrallah, being an issue, I'd double down on any MOD grifters putting my men's lives in danger. Bit of a heads on spikes moment.... lathchicos, filling their pockets, dragging their asses for almost two years.....then, hmm.....I'd call Sergei over, crack a vintage bottle of his choice and toast a hearty toast to the well deserved end of a belligerent little fucker....got better ideas? And don't start with restraint and appeasement.....that died on the battle field. It's either an existential war for existence (have you read the sanctions, the ICC arrest warrants, heard the EU elite's belligerence) or a weapons party test ground.....the Cheque is in the eTrans......
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 17:59 utc | 61
Posted by: Roland | Oct 26 2024 17:52 utc | 59
Yes, absolutely correct. It seems that concern trolling is the new black at MoA
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 26 2024 17:59 utc | 62
The NAFO types who are a perfect parallel to Western excuses for 'strategists' believe as an article of faith that 'Russia is being weakened'.
It's as though they are completely unable to perceive the war is making Russia stronger vis a vis the West. It's economy has grown in leaps and bounds, the military is now the most fearsome and experienced in the world. Russian prestige and diplomacy rallies the nations sick of Western domineering..and the West has provided Russia with all the arguments needed for the world to unhook themselves from US dollars as the main currency of trade. The war has demonstrated the relative uselessness of Western weapons and tactics and exposed NATO as a paper tiger and the US as a reality show with nukes.
The people saying this war is hurting Russia are the same idjits who planned the war and whose careers should depend on it. But in the rarified circles they lurk, you only fail upwards. Hence this nebulous dipshittery that the war 'hurts Russia'.
The politicans can't say it..but the war, like a crucible or a forest fire, is forging a stronger Russia, one more confident in cockblocking the West. Best get used to it, as with the cowardly sponsorship of terrorism and nazis, Russia isn't going to be making compromises. They are aggravated and rightfully so.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 26 2024 18:01 utc | 63
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 17:59 utc | 61
You been on the sauce again Sean?
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 26 2024 18:02 utc | 64
psychohistorian | Oct 26 2024 15:20 utc | 11--
Thanks for providing that. I went to the Kremlin website and found nothing, same with RT and Sputnik. Only TASS has reported the interview. Do note the dateline "MOSCOW, October 25":
Ukraine has approached Russia twice with initiatives mediated by Turkey but has promptly retracted them, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on the "60 Minutes" talk show on Rossiya-1 television.Moscow and Pyongyang will independently decide whether and how to utilize provisions for military assistance from their bilateral treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership, the Russian leader told TV channel reporter Olga Skabeyeva.
TASS has gathered key statements from the head of state.
On talks with Ukraine
Russia has never refused to engage with Ukraine on various initiatives but will not compromise its interests in any negotiations, Putin emphasized. "We have always maintained that Russian interests must be respected in any agreement," he stressed.
Ukraine has approached Russia twice with proposals through Turkish mediation but subsequently walked back its initiatives. "When we agreed, it turned out that the Ukrainian side had already withdrawn. This happened twice," he revealed.
At the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presented new proposals for dialogue with Kiev regarding shipping in the Black Sea and "some other issues," Putin said.
According to him, it is too early to determine what Russia and Ukraine can agree on, as no detailed talks between Moscow and Kiev have yet taken place. "I would prefer not to go into specifics right now, as no detailed negotiations are underway, while the opponents back away," Putin added.
On special military op
Russia must conduct its special military operation with full commitment and dismiss any notions of the enemy’s fatigue, Putin stated.
Any resolution of the conflict in Ukraine must benefit Russia, taking into account the realities on the battlefield, he insisted.
The Russian Armed Forces have been on the offensive along the entire line of engagement, the president noted.
Even as the Ukrainian military has attempted to relieve its encircled troops in Russia's border Kursk Region, it has lost stable command and control of these units, Putin argued. "We sense that those encircled do not even fully understand they have been surrounded. Judging by the information we have, stable troop command and control has been lost," Russia’s supreme commander-in-chief emphasized.
On relations with the West
The West is beginning to soberly assess the situation surrounding Ukraine and is changing its rhetoric toward Russia, but the level of confrontation remains high, Putin maintained. "However, today the rhetoric has changed. We can see this, and, as I’ve stated, they should be commended for beginning to think and assess the situation realistically," the Russian leader said.
On Russia-DPRK treaty
Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are free to determine whether and how to invoke the military assistance article of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, Putin said. "This will be our sovereign decision regarding whether to put something into practice, as well as how and where to do so. We may choose to engage only in conducting exercises, training, and sharing certain experiences. This is entirely our own business," Putin pointed out. [My Emphasis]
Some of the info was already expressed at the Kazan Presser. On the calls to retreat to better defensive lines, that's something I advocated Ukraine do since Summer began. Yes, they'll eventually be assaulted, but as one bar fly noted that will keep the conflict churning well in to 2025.
@ sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 17:59 utc | 61
okay.. thanks sean...i am not sure that is possible here, but it sounds good on paper..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 18:16 utc | 66
muh Russia weakened
And NATO, of course, is a tower of undiminished strength, having not consumed its reserves of previously accumulated fat in terms of equipment supplies, having not privatised, outsourced and financialised its procurement of replacements, having not bowed down to the shibboleths of equality and diversity as a means of strengthening its reserves, having not bloated its already flabby command structures by undemocratically acquiring new members via a political press-gang, and finally, having not decided that the F-35 is its main deterrent going forward...
Sheesh! Who is actually weakened here?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 18:19 utc | 67
@Oger, #2:
NATO sees it differently than you B, 100km means another 6-8 months of weakening Russia regardless of the cost to Ukraine.
Regardless of cost to Ukie has been obvious. Cold bloodedly so! But since Feb. 2022, has NATO seen any signs of Russia weakening? If they said so in their propaganda, they have only been trying to fool their own constituents to maintain support on funding the war. If they strategically really that they have been weakening Russia, then these morons are truly more stupid than I even thought they possibly could be.
And, what made you think advancing 100Km would Russia 8-10 months? Russia chose to fight SMO the way they did wholly because that's the way they chose to. If they wanted a quick and clean victory liberating all land east of the Dneiper River, they could have wrapped up the mess by June of 2022. Of course, they would have to sacrifice more of their own as well Ukie citizens/soldiers, whom they consider their own people, even till today. There wasn't a damned thing NATO could have done different to change that outcome, except perhaps gaining PR claim of Russian salvagery.
People in the west think way too much of their governments and national power. Reality is, the west is slipping down the slippery slope, steadily and irrevocably.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 26 2024 18:25 utc | 68
In deciding to wage war against the Soviet Union, Hitler took into account the imperialist circles in Britain and the USA, who totally shared his thinking. And not without reason: the did everything they could to direct the military actions of the Wehrmacht against the Soviet Union." ...
Posted by: indi.ca | Oct 26 2024 15:42 utc | 20
Yes, this was Hitler’s “brilliant” move; in the West, which he could not defeat, to resolve the conflict - "you have more in common with us than with the Soviet Union" - by attacking in the East. Strangely, he had not understood that the primary goal of the Anglo-Saxons and French since 1871 was the elimination of the great power Germany in Europe. The Russians would never disrupt their circles like the powerful German nation-state.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Oct 26 2024 18:26 utc | 69
On Russia and NK.
Even IF (A big one) NK has a brigade-sized collection of soldiers entering the front (or behind), it would be a miniscule contribution to the entire front and only have value as symbolism. Therefore, I see this as something not in the interest of neither part, therefore unlikely. However, it is entirely possible, NK could add military technicians of various kinds to possibly repair and/or obtain know-how about Russian ordinance.
Instead, what if the relatively weak PR-pushback from Russian media is a head-fake.. i.e. diverse attention from the REAL value of the new defense "pact", which essensielly now is a hard guarantee from Russia regarding the National Security of NK. Kim can now rest a little bit more and focus on further developing his country, not fearing any threat from the hegemon.
Manufacture and sale of artillery shells/ammunition and some labor assistanse seems a small price for Kim to pay for having genuine security guarantees. China will be happy for such an arrangement as they may be more vulnerable to any PR-fallout than Russia is.
And in some years a possible BRICS partnership may happen when/if NK open militarism towards neighbor is toned down a few levels.
The West will keep thinking in linear, one-dimensional and hardpower ways, while it's adversaries will remain fully capable of blending long-term friendships with firm committments.
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 26 2024 18:30 utc | 70
Putin has been very transparant from the start. The military operation has 3 objectives: De-militarize, de-nazify Ukraine and ensure that Ukraine doesn't join NATO.
The extend of the first two objectives are negotiable, the third one is not. This basically sets out Ukraine negotiation space.
The military operation will continue as long as Ukraine throws troops at it or NATO keeps the door open for membership.
Posted by: Jacob | Oct 26 2024 18:43 utc | 71
Dr11.
Couldn't agree with you more. I live in the far North of Norway.
It's a long time since the red arms liberated this part of Norway, but many of us still today understand Russia more than many of the totally brainwashed in the south. Unfortunately, most of our politicians hail from the Oslo-region and eat&drink EUNAZO directives around the clock.
Western "experts" of all kinds are stuck on comparing this conflict to desert storm, while hoping their analysts can egg on Red army to launch massive assaults like it is Verdun.
Russia is steady pushing the front westwards in a very controlled matter while the army keeps growing and the economy not only holding up, but flourishing.
The most interesting thing is how the West can adapt to the changing world order. There WILL be adjustments made, no matter how much the technocratic fascists in Brussels and DC refusert to do so.
Posted by: NorwegianPawn | Oct 26 2024 18:47 utc | 72
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 26 2024 18:25 utc | 68
If you read my post again, you will see that I'm pointing out that NATO wants to continue this war no matter what Ukrainian politicians want as NATO believes it is weakening Russia with every day that it continues. I don't know what is so hard to understand about me stating that fact, NATO countries are not being destroyed, NATO civilians are not getting killed, NATO soldiers are not dying in numbers. Sure, NATO is suffering financially but the big picture is still that Ukraine is taking all the big hits while London, Paris etc get on with their lives.
B hopes that Ukrainian politicians will put a stop to this war, I wish that too, but NATO US will not put a stop to it as they are convinced that they are weakening Russia because of it.
Posted by: Ogre | Oct 26 2024 18:48 utc | 73
And just as a general note, it seems to have gone awfully quiet about the “game-changing” F-16s; anyone have an up-to-date figure on how many have actually been deployed? Or how many have survived initial deployment? Has Schrödinger opened the box of F-16s yet?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 18:48 utc | 74
The President also told Skabeeva about the importance of synchronous work of all branches of the armed forces. This synchronicity is achieved by the tools of multi-domain network-centric warfare. This requires tools such as:▪️digital combat control system coupled with a reconnaissance circuit;
▪️stable space or wave communication covering the entire LBS;
▪️total distribution of digital battle management systems.Today I met with one of the leading developers in this field. Let's say that all our army ACS are still raw, but they are already being used in combat at the brigade/division level. Work on improving them is ongoing every day. For example, a Russian analogue of Discord has already been created.
Until now, most systems have been developed with funds and on the personal initiative of patrons and proactive officers.
So far, battle management systems in our army look like a patchwork quilt: here they are, there they are not, here there is an alpine quest, etc. The process is developing spontaneously. But it is happening.
Within a year or two, programs and experience in their use will appear, which can be used by the entire army. Until then, thanks to a set of ersatz solutions and enemy satellite products, with which the Russian army wins.
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces have 130 thousand people in reserve, they can launch a major offensive!"October 26, 2024
Military expert Alexey Zhivov on what is happening near Kursk and how Russia can catch up with Ukraine in drones
"The demand for intelligence has increased sharply. In general, the army is becoming more intelligent. The smart ones have defeated the strong, to put it simply. A person with a good engineering education, even if not very healthy and slight, is often more important than a strong, powerful, well-trained special forces soldier," says military expert Alexey Zhivov in an interview with BUSINESS Online. He emphasizes that, despite the fact that the situation at the front is developing in Russia's favor, the enemy still has serious reserves. What is happening along the entire front line? What is the ratio of the parties in drones? And why is the Kharkiv region so important to us? This is in our interview.
…
- Alexey , what is your assessment of the state of the front line ?
— The Russian army is achieving operational and tactical successes, primarily in the Donetsk direction. Moreover, the threat in the Kursk region has been almost completely eliminated, we have sharply reduced the enemy's foothold, destroyed a huge number of its material and technical resources and forces. The region turned out to be a trap [for the Ukrainian Armed Forces]. The quality of attack aviation has increased, this is reflected in both the accuracy of strikes and reconnaissance. The same applies to the Aerospace Forces, namely high-precision strikes, for example, with Iskander systems in the deep rear. Several tasks are being solved there, ships intended for an attack on Crimea are being destroyed, as well as cargoes with NATO weapons and equipment, which could then be delivered to the LBS.
Overall, at this stage, everything looks very promising. At the same time, we need to keep in mind the information that the enemy continues to keep about 120-130 thousand people in reserve, both on the line of combat contact and in the rear in Western Ukraine. These reserves and the aviation components that they are accumulating, including missiles, can be used. This means that we should expect that they can undertake a new major offensive on one or more sections of the front.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 26 2024 19:00 utc | 75
" Riiiight. Russians will be making babies wlth shovels and washing machines' chips.
Posted by: Baby Boomer | Oct 26 2024 17:46 utc | 58 "
" The birth rate in Russia has dropped to a historical low. According to Rosstat, the state statistics agency, only 599,600 children were born in the first six months of the year, the lowest number since the post-crisis year of 1999.
Some estimates have Russia’s population dropping from the current 146 million to 128 million by 2050, from the ninth most populous country to the seventeenth.
The Ukraine war is inevitably worsening an already-dismal demographic situation. In a study by the Higher School of Economics, about a third of Russians who have put off or decided not to have children cited the war as a reason. Another third fingered difficult economic conditions, domestic and global political instability, and financial struggles.
“Those who turn down or postpone having a child have recently experienced more negative emotions – such as anxiety and fear – disagree with where the country’s headed and see [the Russian government social program] maternity capital an insignificant measure of support. Meanwhile, the decision to not have a child is more often made by women with children, as well as respondents who have low incomes, in their own opinion, or have seen their income decrease over the past year,” the study says. "
https://russiapost.info/digest/demographic_trends
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:01 utc | 76
" Incidentally arguments of birthrate or the "dying out of ethnic Russians" - or wherever you copied those doomerisms - are also some of the best arguments for intervening in Ukraine.
Posted by: Roland | Oct 26 2024 17:52 utc | 59 "
Please define " ethnic Russian" and how that differs from a "Russian citizen".
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:03 utc | 77
" But let's pretend you are right and Russia is weakend badly. What do you expect? That Russia will falter? That the western hyenas can feast on its carcass? This will never happen.
Posted by: NoName | Oct 26 2024 17:45 utc | 57 "
No it wont falter, it will have to make a choice: surrender or end the world, Just like the US will have to make that choice and Israel also. The big question is do you think the US and the Zios in Israel / the West are going to give up everything and float gently into the night ?
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:08 utc | 78
@ Ogre | Oct 26 2024 18:48 utc | 73
i agree with your overall impressions here.. a few facts - this is a nato-russia war... putin knows this and knows it isn't zelensky who is going to decide anything.. it will either be ukrainians who collectively wake up to see how they have been had, or some rational players in the west like orban, who can see how this is unwinnable.. unfortunately there aren't any rational players in the west, so russia is left to continue to until the eventual complete collapse of the ukrainian position on the front.. now, other things can happen too, and i am sure the west are thinking about all their options here..
bottom line is this war is just as much about money, perhaps even more so - who gets to control what.. this is why in the bigger picture, the slow ascendancy of BRICs, in combo with the slow descendancy of the west is happening at the same time... that will play into this over time.. china continues to get stronger while the usa-uk continues to weaken... but with regard to this nato - russia war - there is a lot at stake... zelensky is just a useful tool, to be replaced by another useful tool, should he be taken out.. i am very clear russia and putin are fully aware of this.. yes, they would like this to end, and no, the west is not interested in ending it - so on it goes and it is the ukrainians and to a lesser extent, the russians who suffer for it.. the west suffers too, but that is less obvious to most and they aren't dying directly as a result of there leaders actions either... this is all to maintain the elite status quo which is fading by the day..
yes, accidents can happen along the way, but on balance both the west and ukraine are on the losing end of the long term equation here.. time is running out for them..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:12 utc | 79
It seems that the beacon of freedom and democracy that is Ukraine is getting concerned about the emergence of a “Reverse Maidan”:
Intelligence warned Ukrainians about" harmful to national security " rallies: what you need to knowIn the cities of Ukraine, preparations are underway for holding rallies, the organizers of which are aimed at discrediting the military-political leadership of Ukraine
This is reported by Regionews with reference to the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
"Anonymous accounts in the Telegram messenger are looking for people who are willing to go to" rallies" for money aimed at discrediting the military and political leadership of Ukraine, in particular, the special services," the report says.
People who agree to participate in these events are encouraged to take photos and videos of these actions for the information of the GUR. Thus, as noted in the message, the organizers seek to " create a picture with the aim of public polarization and creating tension within Ukraine."
"They want to collect the corresponding paid gatherings in Kiev, Odessa, Dnipro and other regional centers," the GUR notes.
The Military Intelligence Service warns Ukrainian citizens not to participate in activities harmful to national security.
https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1729771816-rozvidka-poperedila-ukrayintsiv-pro-shkidlivi-dlya-natsbezpeki-mitingi-shcho-potribno-znati (via translation add-on).
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:17 utc | 80
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:01 utc | 76
Some estimates have Russia’s population dropping from the current 146 million to 128 million by 2050, from the ninth most populous country to the seventeenth.
146+6,5+9=? ...I guess you don't need to worry to much about mother russia.
Posted by: Larsbo | Oct 26 2024 19:17 utc | 81
I have been wondering about the willingness of Ukrainian soldiers to continue to fight and die for their cause even when it is obvious they are losing and are going to, eventually, lose. The answer is that they have enrolled into a cult based on being deeply connected with their comrades in battle--there is nothing like it and it is a guy-thing with a very ancient lineage.
For the leadership the Ukraine scam is great--they get tons of money and equipment (which they can use or sell). Everyone at the top is paid by the Empire through honest and dishonest means. They have no motivations to end the conflict as long as the military is holding off the Russians--and they are. The advances are rather small considering that the Russians have more forces and more and better equipment. The Empire believes a continuing war is good for them as long as Russia loses something. When there are too few soldiers to do as well as the current lot are doing, they'll switch to guerrilla war and terrorism and that will serve the Empire's propaganda needs.
The only positive her is, if Trump is elected, there may be a peace deal but don't count on it because the Deep State has killed one President and one soon-to-be President in the 60s.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 26 2024 19:19 utc | 82
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:01 utc | 76
I’ll see your https://russiapost.info/digest/demographic_trends
and raise you https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:21 utc | 83
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:17 utc | 80
more censorship and control, in case anyone complains... that is what dictatorships do...it doesn't surprise me..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:23 utc | 84
[email protected] you imagine for a second, after all the bs under the bridge, Mr Putin has to sit down and negotiate with Puff Ball Zielinski....wanna really freak yourself out, imagine, just for a fleeting second, that Mr Zielinski is sitting down to negotiate with the next President of Russia......it's heading that way......just in case no one has stop to smell the roses.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 19:26 utc | 85
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:23 utc | 84
Absolutely, and it’s a growing phenomenon in the “free and democratic” West as well.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:28 utc | 86
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:08 utc | 78
"No it wont falter, it will have to make a choice: surrender or end the world, Just like the US will have to make that choice and Israel also. The big question is do you think the US and the Zios in Israel / the West are going to give up everything and float gently into the night ?"
No, the big question is, why would Russia and China, who are winning the economic, political and physical wars, "are going to give up everything and float gently into the night?", especially as "the US and the Zios in Israel" are quite plainly going as fast as they can run into the great dustbin of history?
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 26 2024 19:29 utc | 87
@ sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 19:26 utc | 85
the problem their sean is the negotiations have to be between nato, under the rulership of usa and russia... so, i don't see any negotiations with any of them happening.. as has been repeated endlessly and i think it is very true - the usa is non negotiable... zelensky is just a useful puppet who will go the way of the dodo bird soon enough... that is what i think...
think of the endless bullshit ukrainians have been fed... zelensky got elected on a platform of working things out with russia.. if you think a bullshit artist like this is in any position of power, i think you are very mistaken... this is how puppetry works... even if your scenario was to happen, he won't be representing ukraine.. he hasn't from the beginning!! don't believe the bullshit the western media regularly tells you.. it is all lies, and more lies.. this is going to get worked out on the ground, because the west is too stupid to do anything else..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:31 utc | 88
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 19:26 utc | 85
Yes, you have been hitting the sauce.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Oct 26 2024 19:32 utc | 89
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:28 utc | 86
we are on the same page here.. cheers..
@ Jams O'Donnell | Oct 26 2024 19:32 utc | 89
lol.. i hope it is good prairie sauce, with some guinness thrown in for good measure, seeing as sean has roots in belfast!
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:34 utc | 90
No it wont falter, it will have to make a choice: surrender or end the world, Just like the US will have to make that choice and Israel also. The big question is do you think the US and the Zios in Israel / the West are going to give up everything and float gently into the night ?
Posted by: Moonie | Oct 26 2024 19:08 utc | 78
I think that you underestimate Russia. It will neither have to make a choice of surrender or end the world.
The world is changing and I think Russia will have a bright future.
I live in western Europe, I come around and I think that we are on the decline (admittedly from a very high point). How long this decline goes on and how deep ... who knows. But as I live in Europe myself, I hope that it won't be too bad ;)
Posted by: NoName | Oct 26 2024 19:34 utc | 91
oh and i will probably be wrong on this but zelensky is entering a very dangerous window in the next few weeks according to my astro take... i just wanted to update this as i said it before a few months ago... probably nothing will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if something did..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:36 utc | 92
Overall, at this stage, everything looks very promising. At the same time, we need to keep in mind the information that the enemy continues to keep about 120-130 thousand people in reserve, both on the line of combat contact and in the rear in Western Ukraine.
I call BS on that. There may be 120k left, but at current rate of 2k men/day lost, that entire group is toast by January.
And what about defending Kiev/Odessa/Lvov? Ukraine is a big country, you cannot just send every last man into an offensive and leave huge sections of the rest of it undefended.
There are no more major "cuckster-offensives" of the UAF in the cards. They would need to bring in Poles, French, and Romainians to defend the West. Thus far, that is just "tawk."
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 26 2024 19:36 utc | 93
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:21 utc | 83
I’ll see your debt clock - propaganda for dummies.
and raise you....
DIAGRAMS & DOLLARS: modern money illustrated (Part 1)
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/01/diagrams-dollars-modern-money-illustrated-part-1.html
DIAGRAMS & DOLLARS: modern money illustrated (Part 2)
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/01/diagrams-dollars-modern-money-illustrated-part-2.html
Then re- raise with - " As America issues its own currency why does it borrow ? "
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 19:37 utc | 94
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 19:37 utc | 94
Hmmm... it seems Derek the Derailer is back, aka Lennie Henry.
If you want to discuss this, use the latest open thread.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:46 utc | 95
@james | Oct 26 2024 19:36 utc | 92
I think Zelensky is likely to fall out of a very dangerous window at some point, he’s got a target painted on his back. About his only means of escape (and it would be a huge “Hail Mary pass” in North American terms) is to call presidential and parliamentary elections and then lose gracefully. Admittedly this is a highly unlikely scenario.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:54 utc | 96
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:54 utc | 96
anything is possible.. he's had a good run... too much mars -pluto in his chart in the present window which can imply death by violence.. i am off for the rest of the day.. haloween gig tonight..
Posted by: james | Oct 26 2024 19:57 utc | 97
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:46 utc | 95
Go there then.
Rather than post the dumb gold bug debt clock - propaganda for dummies - every 3 days On every thread. Your the one and always the one that takes it off topic. Every 3 days.
What does the dumb debt clock have to do with - How Russia Is Overwhelming Ukrainian Frontlines ?
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 20:00 utc | 98
I just watched "Better Than Us", a Russian sci fi show from 2018. Not only was it terribly boring, it revealed a bit about Modern Russia that I would rather not admit.
1) Russian propaganda is always weaker than western, and always innovative, and 15 years behind the wests techniques. The only advantage it has is the west has a lot more poop to paper over.
2) Russian urban population surely still has an infatuation with western fashion.
3) Russians still see love and family and children as precious and important.... ..for story telling and ideals, but not in their own personal lives.
Russia will weaken over the next twenty years. But the west is way ahead of them, and will weaken even worse.
Only China will get stronger even as it's population and society degrade.
All this is assuming that the technological society replacing the family society will be inherently weaker. That is yet to be seen.
Either way only China gets stronger than itself in the next 20 years. Russia will be stronger only comparatively to the west. Having the Donbass will help that, but overall, the war is inconsequential to both Russia and the west, a spit in the ocean of decline, if you will.
Posted by: UWDude | Oct 26 2024 20:00 utc | 99
@Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 20:00 utc | 98
Ooh! Temper, temper! Follow the sub-topic that was being discussed before you brought in cumbersome and bureaucratic MMT nonsense.
This is my last post here tonight, you can waffle on to your hearts content now.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 20:05 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Its inevitable Ukraine will lose, its just a matter of time despite all the nonsense we see with main stream reporting and Ukro fanboys.
Posted by: Sonar | Oct 26 2024 14:35 utc | 1