News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …
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October 24, 2024
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-254
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My take on one of the major events of the BRICS Summit, India realizing that it needs China more than China needs it after realizing that the US will only ever accept vassal status. The Dumbo Duo of Blinken and Sullivan strike again: India: Once Again the US Pushes a Fence Sitter Toward the Other Side
Very sad that Brazil blocked Venezuela from being a member of the BRICS, Lula has been an oligarch well-tamed “leftist” for a couple of decades now (with some relatively recent re-education to go full neoliberal), offering just Warmed Up Green Neoliberalism With Crumbs
AFRICAN & BLACK HISTORY
@AfricanArchives
56 years ago today, Tommie Smith and John Carlos performed the Black Power salute at the Olympics that outraged millions of white Americans.
—The was an act of protest by the U.S. athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos during their medal ceremony at the 1968 Summer Olympics in the Olympic Stadium in Mexico City.
As they turned to face their flags and hear the American national anthem (The Star-Spangled Banner), they each raised a Black-gloved fist and kept them raised until the anthem had finished. Smith, Carlos and Australian silver medalist Peter Norman all wore human rights badges on their jackets.
The event is regarded as one of the most overtly political statements in the history of the modern Olympic Games.
Both athletes were kicked off the US team for their protest.
https://x.com/AfricanArchives/status/1846582805553168781
Posted by: Menz | Oct 25 2024 7:35 utc | 102
AFRICAN & BLACK HISTORY
@AfricanArchives
56 years ago today, Tommie Smith and John Carlos performed the Black Power salute at the Olympics that outraged millions of white Americans.
—The was an act of protest by the U.S. athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos during their medal ceremony at the 1968 Summer Olympics in the Olympic Stadium in Mexico City.
As they turned to face their flags and hear the American national anthem (The Star-Spangled Banner), they each raised a Black-gloved fist and kept them raised until the anthem had finished. Smith, Carlos and Australian silver medalist Peter Norman all wore human rights badges on their jackets.
The event is regarded as one of the most overtly political statements in the history of the modern Olympic Games.
Both athletes were kicked off the US team for their protest.
https://x.com/AfricanArchives/status/1846582805553168781
Posted by: Menz | Oct 25 2024 7:37 utc | 103
Turk 152 @ 52
Any forum that brings Iran and Turkey together is probably seen as bad news for the Kurds by the PKK.
Posted by: Bilejones | Oct 25 2024 8:21 utc | 104
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 24 2024 15:58 utc | 23
————–
Thank you karlof1 for your input.
It won’t be long until we see new countries joining in as full-fledged members and some discussions of the same took place.
Posted by: AI | Oct 25 2024 8:30 utc | 105
I find Putins comment on the ‘climate change’ scam significant.
“Western countries, European countries, have given up on our energy resources,” he said, noting that one pipeline of Nord Stream 2 remains intact, and Germany’s decision to keep it deactivated is “political.” He added that the US has “created the conditions for a whole sector of the German economy to move to the United States.”
Additionally, Putin pointed out that some countries have been affected by the misuse of “green” policies, shutting down anything related to nuclear power or hydrocarbon fuels. “Many in Europe and elsewhere, including the US, have abused and continue to abuse the environmental agenda and global warming discussions,” he said.
source: RT
These “green” policies are fundamentally hypocritical and abused by money. Effects such as forcing industry to move from Europe to the US betrays what kind of power is behind the agenda.
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 25 2024 9:04 utc | 106
I tried to link to Putin’s words about the climate scam and so called ‘green’ policies (think Baerbock), but the post was gobbled up by the algorithm. So here is the quote again without link to the source in R T.
“Western countries, European countries, have given up on our energy resources,” he said, noting that one pipeline of Nord Stream 2 remains intact, and Germany’s decision to keep it deactivated is “political.” He added that the US has “created the conditions for a whole sector of the German economy to move to the United States.”
Additionally, Putin pointed out that some countries have been affected by the misuse of “green” policies, shutting down anything related to nuclear power or hydrocarbon fuels. “Many in Europe and elsewhere, including the US, have abused and continue to abuse the environmental agenda and global warming discussions,” he said.
The “green” policies are deeply hypocritical, defended using pseudoscience and is motivated by power and money. Effects such as forcing European industry to move to the US betrays the source of the hypocrisy.
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 25 2024 9:14 utc | 107
@Norwegian | Oct 25 2024 9:14 utc | 107
Alternate link to the source.
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 25 2024 9:18 utc | 108
BRICS summit was a great success just by attendence and attention. But a few bitter pills remain.
Serbia spurned the summit despite invitation. Vucic seems to be a lost cause.
What was the reason for Saudi Arabia to skip the summit? Is there some disagreement?
Lula is tilting ever more into the neoliberal western ideology and seems also a lost cause. He might even go to cold war with Venezuela over Essequibo.
Erdogan is an opportunist and ottoman expansionist and should be treated with caution.
Pakistan regime is murdering it’s rightful president Imran Khan, but at the same time they openly defy their US masters vis-a-vis China, Russia and Iran. Also suspicious.
Egypt in cold war with Ethiopia and seemingly still in the grip of the US.
Despite all this, the summit was an impressive illustration of the tectonic power shift.
Posted by: Hamburger | Oct 25 2024 10:25 utc | 109
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 24 2024 17:24 utc | 35
Due to the topsoil depletion that the modern agribusiness system depends upon I refer to them as dirt miners as that is what in effect they are doing. The Roman’s did the same with large plantations replacing the small farms with hedgerows and treelines separating them. That with the systems of aqueducts led to topsoil depletion that was one of the often overlooked factors in the collapse of the western empire. It took almost 600 years for the soils to recover in Italy to the point that local farming could sustain a republican Era of population.
Posted by: Badjoke | Oct 25 2024 10:49 utc | 110
When I comment on MoA it is usually in connection with the situations in Ukraine or occupied Palestine. However, I do have other interests and here I am making a REQUEST FOR INFORMATION on a topic completely removed from present day conflicts.
If anyone thinks they may be of assistance, then I’d be grateful to read any relevant posts.
BACKGROUND
Around 40 years ago I purchased three -very good condition- books which could be broadly characterised as dealing with the history and philosophy of science (primarily physics) from an early to middle 20th century perspective, and all apparently authored by one A. d’ Abro. As it happened, I never really looked at these books until quite recently, but having now done so I am increasingly intrigued by the (apparent) author who is something of a mystery to me. I suspect there might be a very interesting story behind these books, and hence this (strange) request to MoA in the hope that some knowledgeable barflies might be able to help me here.
I will describe the reasons I am so interested in this further below, but as for the three books themselves –
All three had been read seriously by the previous owner (definitely the same person for all three volumes) as attested to by the numerous annotations in the margins and some underlining-all done with a pencil.
(1) The first book is titled “The evolution of scientific thought- from Newton to Einstein”, (second edition)
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 50-9480.
Published by DOVER PUBLICATIONS INC, 1950. This is a reprint of an earlier book apparently published in 1927 by a firm called BONI & LIVERRIGHT INC.
The subject matter of this work is primarily a commentary and documentation of important physical concepts in the transition from classical (Newtonian) physics to the theories of relativity from the perspective of an (quite early) 20th century (very well informed) author.
The preface was by A. d’Abro, and dated New York 1949, although he had apparently prefaced the earlier work in1927 (again in New York).
(2) The second is a two volume work titled “The rise of the new physics-its mathematical and physical theories”. This was also published by DOVER in 1951, but is apparently a reprint (with some corrections) of an earlier work entitled “DECLINE OF MECHANISM”, and apparently first published by D. Van Nostrand Co Inc. in 1939.
There was no recorded Library of Congress number in either of the wo volumes.
Volume 1 was prefaced January 1939 New York, N.Y.
These two books are concerned with both quantum theory and relativity, but also touch on kinetic theory (of gases etc,) and thermodynamics. Some quite advanced mathematical concepts are also presented, and in a very comprehensible manner. I would say the same for the earlier book (written circa. 1927).
————————————————-
I personally have a good understanding of both physics and mathematics (university level) and feel qualified to judge the scientific veracity of the books as being high. Clearly these were written by someone with particularly deep and sophisticated appreciation and comprehension of the subject matter, at least as it was understood in the early 20th century.
So far as I know all three books were written in English, and the standard of writing is very high. If written by a single individual, and the author was clearly a very highly achieving polymath.
However, it is possible -given the breadth of the physics and mathematics discussed- that the work was compiled by some sort of collective of physicists, each with his (her) own speciality, and that the individual contributions were edited by one individual who must also have been very skilled.
I suppose it is possible that A. d’Abro could have been this editor rather than the author of these works.
Whatever, these books are extremely unique and given their very high quality I am genuinely surprised hat they are not more widely known in either the general scientific community or by historians and philosophers of science.
Of course I tried an internet search for d’ Abro, but found only a fairly brief and enigmatic reference in Wikipedia. I will not repeat the contents of that here, but it is quite short and raises many questions as to the persona of Mr. d’Abro. I will leave it to barflies to access this themselves if any are interested.
To be clear, I am not suspecting any dark conspiracy here, but am genuinely interested in the origin of these works.
I also note that the books appear to be still available through Amazon, but have not explored this further.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Oct 25 2024 11:32 utc | 111
Jewrael is still blathering about payback for Iran’s payback for violating Iran’s territorial integrity. But Iran knows what every student of Jewish History knows:
Jews are as weak as piss and twice as yellow.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 25 2024 11:47 utc | 112
In comparison UK rate is 5, but we will have some brilliant arguments on why a 21% interest rate is actually a good thing.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 12:16 utc | 113
One interesting thing I noticed recently was a report by Sergey Chemezov (who basically manages most of Russian arms industry) that kind of admitted that Rostec is close to bankruptcy. This basically cannot operate in such heavy interest rates. The government gives it a new procurement order which on paper sounds great because of the new business, but in reality it has to take crippling loans to bring up production capacity and hire people and the government doesn’t pay until the order is completed at which point depending on how inflation and interest rates evolves it may end up losing money.
Of course it won’t be able to bankrupt but that’l will end up as another major drain on the national finances rather than as a profitable business line.
Posted by: Event Horizon | Oct 25 2024 12:41 utc | 114
Except even if it bankrupt the Government will keep it afloat. What the Russian Government is pulling off is a scam at the levels of MEFO bills. The catch is it won’t be able to pay it off with stolen Ukrainian Gold.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 12:49 utc | 115
Decoupling from the Western market isn’t going to be painless. But it will set up a more sustainable, less politically vulnerable economy in the mid to long term. All in all, I think Russia’s economy has proven to be far more resilient than the West expected.
Posted by: any name untaken | Oct 25 2024 12:54 utc | 116
It’s been 3 years and the interest rates are still climbing. Maybe it’s not just western isolation but also other factors such as a Underdeveloped economy.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 12:57 utc | 117
Yes, it’ll obviously keep it afloat. The point is that Russia’s military industrial complex is not the infinite money glitch, that many of people on MoA think it is.
At the end of the day, a lot less money is flowing into Russia from abroad due to the sanctions and internally a lot of businesses are struggling due to economic pressure of the war. This is not sustainable and sooner or later will pop. Of course there is no guarantee that Ukraine will manage to hold before Russia’s economy collapses, but the thing is, the sanctions will continue indefinitely. Even if Ukraine decides that it cannot fight more and accepts whatever settlement Russia wants, there is no reason for the sanctions to be removed until Russia retreats to the 1991 borders.
Posted by: Event Horizon | Oct 25 2024 13:03 utc | 118
Thats why the us wants to prolong the war as long as possible. Because no matter Putin tries to appear determined to continue the war, the us sees how it is in trouble, bleeding from inside and getting weaker day by day.
Posted by: sonsabah | Oct 25 2024 13:07 utc | 119
There is no coincidence that removing the sanctions is one of Russia’s top priorities internationally.
Posted by: Event Horizon | Oct 25 2024 13:08 utc | 120
I would like some actual justification from Pro-Russians on how this military based economy would actually work aside from just saying Russians are resilient/ Russians are built different.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 13:17 utc | 121
Not many other countries would have survived the financial sanctions Russia is under let alone grow the economy.For example, Putin was warned off 25% gdp wipeout by his financial advisers.
Posted by: Scorpionking | Oct 25 2024 13:27 utc | 122
Russia is merely delaying the fall in my opinion. But let’s see.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 13:31 utc | 123
Perhaps. But I remember the headlines early in the war, where Russia’s economy was supposed to buckle in three to six months. I remember the talk of the nuclear Swift option, which would surely make Russia’s economy crumble. And yet here we are, at almost three years, and Russia has been able to weather the sanctions even without fully switching to a war economy.
As I said, it certainly won’t be painless. But with the West increasingly weaponizing the economic advantages it gained from centuries of draining the world coffers (colonialism, imperialism), and its privileged position as the custodians of the world reserve currency, it is ultimately in countries interests (certainly Russia’s) to decouple and get out from under the yoke. And for the first time in centuries that is actually possible, as emerging economies are starting to rival the West in global market share.
Posted by: any name untaken | Oct 25 2024 13:33 utc | 124
I just read in the MSM that Kamalala has been endorsed by an “insane clown posse” … Well , we all already known that ! Thank you Captain Obvious !
Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 25 2024 13:37 utc | 125
As I said earlier, I believe Russia is delaying the inevitable.
But the fact you claim the west drained the world coffers through colonialism and imperialism brings up the question didn’t Russia do the same.
But Pro-Russians seem to consider Russian Imperialism as birth right while western imperialism as disgusting politics. Russia colonized the entirety of Siberia and Alaska, but that will never be acknowledged.I already predict the reply will be completely unrelated.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 13:45 utc | 126
It’s not a matter of justifying Russian imperialism; merely measuring its relative impact. By far the majority of global wealth was siphoned to the West over the past centuries. First to the UK and France as the colonial superpowers, and then, post-WW2 to the US. Meaning there is an accumulation of economic power (and resulting soft power) there. Withstanding pressure from all that accumulated wealth working against you (as Russia now is) will always be painful. It might even prove destructive. But the alternative, as it is increasingly weaponized, is to live under a US political and economic hegemony.
Posted by: any name untaken | Oct 25 2024 13:53 utc | 127
The only difference is that the money stolen by the “west” was used to industrialize massively, while the money stolen by the Russians was wasted by the Romanovs first, and then again wasted by the Soviets through a stupid arms race.
Posted by: Intelligent Nail | Oct 25 2024 14:08 utc | 128
Turkish President Erdogan says US uses terror groups in region for security of Israel
02:3625/10/2024, Friday
Terrorist group that exploits instability in Syria is wasting its efforts to seek the patronage of certain Western countries,’ Erdogan tells journalists
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that the US uses terrorist organizations in the Middle East for the security of Israel.
“It is now a known fact that the US uses terrorist organizations in the region for its own interests and for the security of Israel,” Erdogan told journalists on board the presidential plane returning from Russia after BRICS summit.
He said Türkiye has launched an initiative under the UN to impose comprehensive arms embargo on Israel, as intensified Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon continue to claim hundreds of lives every day.
Erdogan underlined that the number of countries supporting Ankara’s call for arms embargo on Israel is growing.
“We hope to succeed in this as Alliance of Humanity and open the door for lasting peace,” he added.
About the PKK terror attack on the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) headquarters in the capital Ankara, which killed five people and injured 22 others, he noted that Türkiye continues its efforts to “completely dry up terrorism at its source.”
After the attack, the Turkish military and intelligence agency launched airstrikes on PKK/YPG positions in northern Iraq and Syria.
“Terrorists are puppets. Our goal is a Türkiye without terrorism,” Erdogan said, and added: “We will not compromise on this.”
“PYD/YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK terror group, destined to be abandoned, left isolated,” he added.
The terrorist group that “exploits instability in Syria is wasting its efforts to seek the patronage of certain Western countries,” he added.
In its 40-year terror campaign against Türkiye, the PKK – listed as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the US, and EU – has been responsible for the deaths of over 40,000 people, including women, children, and infants.
Posted by: Turk 152 | Oct 25 2024 14:15 utc | 129
@Posted by: Bilejones | Oct 25 2024 8:21 utc | 105
The Kurds have been the willing puppets of the West for many decades now, acting as traitors within the countries they inhabit. Currently helping the Empire occupy a large chunk of Syria. They deserve everything they get, I hope that Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran one day come together to absolutely crush them.
Re: Russian Economy ?
What the racists always forget is the Russian Economy is cash-flow-positive. It’s doesn’t need outside capital to grow.
I realize that’s a difficult concept for the racists to grasp but that’s the truth.
Posted by: Exile | Oct 25 2024 14:48 utc | 131
“…didn’t Russia do the same.”
No, in fact the USSR did the opposite. The wealth flow, for the most part, was from the “imperial core” (notice I use scare quotes here because the USSR wasn’t actually an empire in any modern or historical sense) to the periphery, unlike the American Empire which vampires its vassals’ lifeblood using Big Finance. In fact, this is one of the causes of younger Russians becoming butthurt over the USSR. “Why should Russia be subsidizing those shitty `stans, and why is the Ukraine getting the best of everything? Why is Russia the red-headed stepchild in our own empire?”
The USSR could definitely have been run better, what with boneheaded Stalinists at the helm, but it certainly wasn’t exploiting vassals.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 25 2024 15:00 utc | 132
badjoke@1049
“Soil Miners”…I like that appellation. Altogether accurate. In my immediate rural neighborhood, where the Great Northwoods greets Big Sky Country; waaay too much of our corrugated landscape with forested areas and numerous lowlands and water-courses have fallen into the hands of those “successful farmer” idiots. To our immediate north and nearby west, the land flattens out into what has now become a biological disaster area where the wild world no longer exists to any considerable degree.
“Cry the Beloved Country” the title of a book by South Africa’s Alan Paton, writer some 70 years ago…applies so well to some of the once richest and diverse rural lands in this Turtle Island continent.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 25 2024 15:12 utc | 133
Looks to be a tag-team between Event Horizon and Intelligent Nail and chimed in on by sensabah. Concern trolling? This strikes me as a more sophisticated trolling than we usually encounter here on MoA. It’s all about a hypothetical collapse of Russia’s economy.
Not realized or recognized is that the Russian military industry is primarily governmentally owned. It is not at all about the profit margin which totally dominates the Collective Wa$te. Comparatively, Russia has reached high levels of production BECAUSE the process does NOT exist for the profits of the highest investor class.
There is no possibility in my estimation that this incursion came about by mere happenstance. These posters appear to be (1. highly organized and (2. men with a semantic mission…very Bernaysian.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 25 2024 15:22 utc | 134
any name untaken @1333
Yes, the conflict is between the “Rules Biased Order” and a growingly free market amongst independent nations. The occulted rulers of the Collective Wa$te are becoming exceedingly nervous regarding the relative slippage of their control network matrix. Appears that they are even sending out elements of their First Team of Wordslingers to engage the posters here on MoA.
Underlying as a foundation for that “Rules Biased Order” is quite simple. They have their own iteration of the Golden Rule. In stark contrast to the Golden Rule as credited to Jesus, the Great Spiritual Teacher…THEIR “golden rule” is “them that owns the gold make the rules”.
Quite simple, really, when one is a bit informed as to actually reading the open statements of the Evil Ones and capable of reading between the lines.
We are engaged in a war…a war for the minds and spirits of humanity. Currently, the people of the world are gaining on their enslaveing “masters”.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 25 2024 15:32 utc | 135
A New York Times/Siena (a very deep blue organization) poll has Trump and Harris neck and neck at the national level. When Trump beat the Hillary in 2016 he lost the national vote by 2.1% but won the electoral college because so many of the Dem votes get stacked up uselessly in places like California. Even the early voting is more skewed toward the Republicans!
This is looking more and more like a wipe out for Harris, who is falling apart as the finish line comes into sight. The blue MSM is truly panicking and even criticizing Harris, for example about her recent utterly evasive answers to any questions at a recent town hall, it is a sight to see.
Kamala Harris ‘WORD SALAD CITY’ Answers FAIL TO IMPRESS Undecided Voters: CNN Town Hall
And of course there are some of the true blue shills to come out fully and lie their faces off, like the ex Zionist regime prison guard Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic. And this shameless unwarranted fear mongering from The Daily Show, sad how cucked John Stewart has become these days.
Jon Stewart on Trump’s McDonald’s Shift & His “Enemy Within” Threat: The Daily Show
He knows who Trump means, the US establishment and their Deep State – how dare Trump call them out as the traitors they are. The ones that have been trying to destroy him for 8 years. GFY John Stewart.
@Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 25 2024 15:00 utc | 134
Stalin industrialized the Soviet Union in ten years, then beat the Nazis all the way back to Berlin, then while rebuilding the shattered economy developed an atom bomb. Khrushchev, Brezhnev etc. were not Stalinists, more fat and happy bureaucrats cosplaying Stalinism. Under Stalin workers were paid extra for extra output, he understood basic human psychology, Khrushchev got rid of that as well as wasting huge resources attempting to grow cotton in the east. Heads of bureaucracy were also regularly rotated or replaced, stopping the building of bureaucratic empires, while under Khrushchev and Brezhnev etc. they became little tsars while corruption flourished.
Mao broke from the Soviet Union after it rejected Stalinism, and maintained his progress in rebuilding China from an incredibly low base – still outgrowing India 2:1 from 1949 to 1979 and delivering the literate and healthy workforce and infrastructure without which Deng’s reforms would never have worked. Now Xi continues the work, based upon Leninism and Stalinism with lessons learned about the use of carefully controlled markets to drive the productive forces. None of the Trotskyist/Western Marxist pie in the sky shite.
Elite US Economist [ M. El Erian] Warns: Dollar System Is Weakening as Gold BRICS Rise
Ben Norton – text plus Video …
‘In a 2023 article, Krugman claimed to “debunk” the critics of the dollar system, asserting that “the hype about de-dollarization is much ado about almost nothing”.
This narrative has been echoed by media outlets like Business Insider, which insisted “dollar dominance isn’t going anywhere”; or Foreign Policy magazine, which invited the head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute to argue that “there isn’t a real global alternative” to the dollar system.
Nevertheless, there are growing cracks in this elite consensus. The mainstream American economist Mohamed El-Erian, a former deputy director of the US-dominated International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that de-dollarization is indeed happening.
In a column in the Financial Times, El-Erian acknowledged that the US dollar is gradually losing its dominance, as foreign central banks buy fewer Treasury securities, instead holding more gold in their reserves.
El-Erian is by no means an outsider in the West’s neoliberal establishment. In fact, President Barack Obama previously appointed him as chair of the US Global Development Council, and today he serves as president of Cambridge University’s prestigious Queens’ College.
With this op-ed in the FT, El-Erian was urging his colleagues to show a bit more caution – and to take their heads out of the dogmatic sands of neoclassical economic orthodoxy.
[ Useful table of all the assets frozen by the US]
[…] The share of US Treasury securities held by foreign investors peaked in 2015, at around 34%, and has steadily fallen in the past decade to 23-24% in 2024.
[… Table of China holdings of US Treasuries – going down ]
https://scheerpost.com/2024/10/25/elite-us-economist-warns-dollar-system-is-weakening-as-gold-brics-rise/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 25 2024 16:42 utc | 139
@Republicofscotland | Thu, 24 Oct 2024 16:44:00 GMT | 31
“Russia has provided Iran with licenses to produce Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets.”
Lets see how long it take Iran to get them off the ground – and if they make a difference.
The airframe is great. One of the best you can find, unless you fancy stealth, and possibly even then. This decision looks a long-term project to me, something the Iranians seem to be keen of when it comes to engineering/design of enabling fundamentals, expected to robustly serve without much consideration. Other examples include license-building of German Mercedes trucks, the G3 assault rifle, and the Huey helicopter line.
Posted by: persiflo | Oct 25 2024 18:14 utc | 140
https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-show-sachs-2
A recent interview by Tucker Carlson with Jeffrey Sachs, of 140 minutes.
He shares the conviction of most barflies, that the president’s agency is very limited, and a bunch of “men in black suits with blue ties” tends to take over foreign policy, while POTUS is being routinely lied to by his advisors.
Nevertheless, and following Victor Orban, he puts his hope in Trump and Vance, who in his view have a sound and complete understanding of the Ukraine conflict. I haven’t watched the whole length of it, but it is full of new interesting stuff even if you’ve seen a lot of Jeffrey Sachs.
Posted by: grunzt | Oct 25 2024 18:19 utc | 141
Why does a very recalcitrant India suddenly relented in border talks and agreed to a thaw ?
Cuz it had no choice. !
Every country who jumped on the US’s CEA bandwagon eventually realised that they coudnt survive without the Chinese supply chain !
Their reckless policy to BDS China came back to bite their ass big time
For example, during the past four years’s curb on Chinese investments, indian electronics industries suffered a 15B loss and 100000 job cuts !
Hence,
Like the limey, the Italians, the Argentinians, the Finns, VN, Lithuania etc etc….the Indians wanna reset with China now ! [sic]
Begging for Chinese investment again !
thats all folks
Posted by: denk | Oct 25 2024 20:07 utc | 142
Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
Our road-trip proper begins: we rented a car and are currently driving out of Chongqing city, towards Dazu rock carvings! I’m using Amap for navigation and it always blows my mind how vastly superior it is to Google Maps or Waze, truly a shame we don’t use it outside China.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1849676961507111049
Posted by: Menz | Oct 25 2024 20:21 utc | 143
Tansu Yegen
@TansuYegen
China in one video…
https://x.com/TansuYegen/status/1849464646207439033
Posted by: Menz | Oct 25 2024 20:22 utc | 144
When I’m not reading RT, I am able to read reader commentary on Tolstoy Comments. While I haven’t read the actual RT article, nor do I have a link to it, the news regarding the firing of Linux driver maintainers had some RT readers not wanting anything to do with Linux, wanting the BRICS nations to ditch Linux for something else, etc.. At least one RT reader (RT’er?) says he removed Linux from all his computers.
1. Given the open-source nature of Linux, particularly the ability to freely fork the software (hat tip to some at this page) and the presence of Russian distros like Astra Linux, how many of you here (like me) currently use Linux and will continue using it in the foreseeable future?
2. (How) will this affect the development of Astra Linux and the Russian government’s use thereof (and Linux in general)?
3. How well does the principle of separating art from the artist apply?
4. Where does one draw the line between boycotting an entire nation (e.g. Finland) and cancel-culture?
Thanks in advance.
Posted by: joey_n | Oct 25 2024 23:57 utc | 145
JPost, Ynet News and Al Jazeera are confirming that Jewrael has commenced its Suicide Bombing Campaign in Tehran and Damascus.
One presumes that the attack on Damascus is designed to provoke Russia.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 26 2024 0:35 utc | 146
ZH has a posting up with the title
UK To Change Definition Of Debt So It Can Add $90 Billion More
the quote
Back in Sept 2022, the UK financial system almost collapsed when the bond market vigilantes woke up from a decade long slumber and in response to the tax-cutting mini-budget by former PM Liz “did not outlast the lettuce” Truss, sent yields soaring, the pound crashing and sparked a firesale of the country’s rate sensitive securities, forcing the BOE to resume QE virtually overnight as a buyer of last resort was desperately needed. It was a vivid reminder just how fake and unstable the global financial system has become if one just pulls the curtain on the unlimited daily supports from central bankers, and better yet, it was a teachable lesson why assets can never again drop: because if they do, it means central banks are no longer micromanaging the entire market and an epic crash is inevitable.
Long story short, the UK learned its lesson and the last thing it would ever do again is get perilously close to admitting the truth, which is that it is exclusively reliant on the debt market to fund its marginal deficit spending. Which, however, would mean two things: i) it would somehow have to convince the market it has much more debt capacity than it currently does, i.e. changing the definition of debt, and ii) it would need to actually do the right thing (something it has to do since unlike the US it doesn’t have a reserve currency to punch around) and either boost taxes or cut back spending.
That’s precisely what is about to happen.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, the UK’s equivalent to the Treasury Secretary, has embraced a fiscal overhaul that could allow the UK to borrow as much as £70 billion ($91 billion) more over the next five years by changing the very definition of debt, as the government defended a budget that looks increasingly likely to tax investors.
These are the sorts of things one has to do if you aren’t the Reserve Currency country
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 26 2024 1:43 utc | 147
Posted by: Scorpionking | Oct 25 2024 13:27 utc | 124
We were privileged here to see it happening as those first lengthy Q&A’s took place between Putin and his constituents far and wide, as fledgling agronomies and urban communities gave their reports on what the country at large was doing and what still needed to be done to compensate for the restrictions the west was imposing. Those conversations are unforgettable. The smallest detail was noted by Putin with the words “We will do this.”
Posted by: juliania | Oct 26 2024 3:38 utc | 148
The party of German prime minister Scholz does poorly at elections, and regularly receives a beating from anti-immigrant parties. Next, prime minister Scholtz visits India, and increases the annual work visa for Indians to 90,000. This is more than clumsiness.
One explanation is that we are ruled by a professional and managerial caste for whom country, people, religion, ethnicity, tribe, are abstract words, largely irrelevant and without real meaning.
Asking such people to run a country is like asking a blind man to run an art gallery, or a deaf person to conduct a symphony orschestra.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 26 2024 8:52 utc | 149
One explanation is that we are ruled by a professional and managerial caste for whom country, people, religion, ethnicity, tribe, are abstract words, largely irrelevant and without real meaning.
Asking such people to run a country is like asking a blind man to run an art gallery, or a deaf person to conduct a symphony orschestra.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 26 2024 8:52 utc | 151
Phhtt.
Wait for a “chancellor Merz” leading Germans into Black Rock serfdom.
actually for evaluating the recent elections in Germany you have to look
at voter migration and not so much on absolute numbers.
Greens have really screwed the pooch.
SPD has marginally lost
FDP ( see Greens )
CDU has been ~constant, having gained from SPD, Greens, .. and lost a similar amount to AfD.
BSW rising star getting votes all over the spectrum of voters.
Overall it is a widely fronted move to parties that oppose warchesting the UKR conflict.
BSW gets more votes for that position as it does not share the “icky” from the AfD.
ref:
https://www.tagesschau.de/thema/w%C3%A4hlerwanderung ( translate to your liking )
Posted by: MAKK | Oct 26 2024 9:39 utc | 150
Essay by writer and journalist Meghan Murphy examines Canadian attitudes and policies with respect to transgender ideology.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/26/canada-trans-extremism-lgbtq-gender-sex-critical/
“Canada, bastion of agreeableness, is facing an ‘extremist threat’. Who are these dangerous terrorists, threatening to destroy the maple syrupy vibes we have so long enjoyed in America’s very polite, but very dull, neighbour?
Apparently, it’s the people who still recall the difference between mommy and daddy, and refuse to pretend otherwise.
Earlier this year, Canada’s intelligence agency, CSIS, warned of an impending ‘extremist’ threat…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 26 2024 13:48 utc | 151
Hoarsewhisperer@148…..the Apartheid State bombs Syria regularly with Russian complicity. That Russia can supply Iran with AD systems and that Iran has it’s own AD systems, and they both use poor old Syria as a Friday night slapper….
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 26 2024 15:07 utc | 152
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 19:21 utc | 83
I’ll see your debt clock – propaganda for dummies.
and raise you….
DIAGRAMS & DOLLARS: modern money illustrated (Part 1)
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/01/diagrams-dollars-modern-money-illustrated-part-1.html
DIAGRAMS & DOLLARS: modern money illustrated (Part 2)
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/01/diagrams-dollars-modern-money-illustrated-part-2.html
Then re- raise with – ” As America issues its own currency why does it borrow ? ”
A very simple question.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 20:07 utc | 153
I’ll give you a bit of time Jeremy. As you don’t know the answer and are now scurrying around the internet trying to look it up.
Wake me up, when you find it.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 20:10 utc | 154
Jesus Jeremy , do you know how to use Google ?
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 20:17 utc | 155
This is my last post here tonight, you can waffle on to your hearts content now.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 26 2024 20:05
Tell the truth Jeremy.
You are away to spend the night surfing the net to answer a very simple question. As you have no idea why fully sovereign nation states that issue their own currencies borrow.
What’s wrong with admitting it ? Was is wrong with admitting You don’t know ?
You don’t move to a MMT world Jeremy that is a myth. MMT just provides everybody with an accurate description of how different nations monetary systems ACTUALLY work. Using the actual balance sheets of the central bank, Treasury and commercial banks. They are all different.
That’s all it is and will ever be. Nothing more and nothing less.
Doesn’t matter if you are right wing, Ultra right wing, liberal, neoliberal, left wing, socialist or communist. It is how you use it that matters Jeremy.
Trump used it to build his wall.
BRICS used it to write the BRICS report.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 26 2024 21:17 utc | 156
(I wrote these words in another thread but decided that it was more appropriate to post my thoughts in this thread)
– Biden & Harris will ignore / neglect the war in the Urkaine until after – at least – after the elections and perhasp even after the inauguration on january 26 (????). Then it will someone other’s problem. And – at least – NOT a problem for Blinken / Sullivan / Biden anymore.
– How militaristic the US has becoem show is the fact that no one in DC wants to take credit for all the military failures:
– Harry Truman knew the Korea war was lost but he didn’t want to publicly ackowledge it before he left office. In fact he never acknowledged.
– J.F. Kennedy 1) wanted to withdraw trops from Vietnam 2) wanted to improve relationship with the Soviet Union 3) didn’t support the CIA landing in the Bay of Pigs (Cuba). And he paid the price for those decisions with his life.
– L.B. Johnson didn’t seek re-election because he knew the US wasn’t able to win the Vietnam war.
– Senior US officials never acknowlegded that the US was responsible for allowing Japan to expand its empire in the Far East between say 1900 and 1945). Think: “Japanese Monroe Doctrine”. Theodore Roosevelt never acknowledged this before and after he left office.
– WW 2 in the Far East could have been prevented if the US would have chosen to impose an oilboycott against Japan in 1941.
– The US had (right) after WW 2 an opportunity to prevent China & Vietnam becoming communist.
– And now Biden is hoping that the war in the Urkaine will end after he retires into a nursing home (in february 2025). So, he, Sullivan and Blinken won’t have to face the consequences. Blinken already has sai that he won’t return in the next Harris administration.
– In that regard I think the war in the Ukraine is very likely to continue until – at least – vey late january 2025/ early february 2025. Or the Ukraine could have the courage to start negociations with Russia this year without the approval of the US. We’ll have to wait and see what is going to happen in the coming weeks but this is how I read the tealeaves.
Posted by: WMG | Oct 27 2024 4:00 utc | 157
(I wrote these words in another thread but decided that it was more appropriate to post my thoughts in this thread)
– Biden & Harris will ignore / neglect the war in the Urkaine until after – at least – after the elections and perhasp even after the inauguration on january 26 (????). Then it will someone other’s problem. And – at least – NOT a problem for Blinken / Sullivan / Biden anymore.
– How militaristic the US has becoem show is the fact that no one in DC wants to take credit for all the military failures:
– Harry Truman knew the Korea war was lost but he didn’t want to publicly ackowledge it before he left office. In fact he never acknowledged.
– J.F. Kennedy 1) wanted to withdraw trops from Vietnam 2) wanted to improve relationship with the Soviet Union 3) didn’t support the CIA landing in the Bay of Pigs (Cuba). And he paid the price for those decisions with his life.
– L.B. Johnson didn’t seek re-election because he knew the US wasn’t able to win the Vietnam war.
– Senior US officials never acknowlegded that the US was responsible for allowing Japan to expand its empire in the Far East between say 1900 and 1945). Think: “Japanese Monroe Doctrine”. Theodore Roosevelt never acknowledged this before and after he left office.
– WW 2 in the Far East could have been prevented if the US would have chosen to NOT impose an oilboycott against Japan in 1941.
– The US had (right) after WW 2 an opportunity to prevent China & Vietnam becoming communist.
– And now Biden is hoping that the war in the Urkaine will end after he retires into a nursing home (in february 2025). So, he, Sullivan and Blinken won’t have to face the consequences. Blinken already has sai that he won’t return in the next Harris administration.
– In that regard I think the war in the Ukraine is very likely to continue until – at least – vey late january 2025/ early february 2025. Or the Ukraine could have the courage to start negociations with Russia this year without the approval of the US. We’ll have to wait and see what is going to happen in the coming weeks but this is how I read the tealeaves.
Posted by: WMG | Oct 27 2024 4:02 utc | 158
Posted by: WMG | Oct 27 2024 4:02 utc | 160
I had been going to post my comment on the latest Palestine thread, but yours here,WMG, with comments about previous US Presidents faced with a war situation developing during their term, persuades me to advocate attention of MoA to today’s discussion by Alexander Mercouris at the Duran of events in Palestine and then in Ukraine. Mercouris gives an alarming analysis of the Israel attack on Iran as he understands that to have had ‘decapitation’ intent in its original plan, as apparently Biden would have wanted to happen. He doesn’t apply his reasoning to events unfolding in Ukraine but that earlier suggestion is ominous enough. Others may have already noted this on the Palestine thread, but in case they have not, I will give the link to the Duran in my next post here.
Posted by: juliania | Oct 27 2024 4:19 utc | 159
Here is the link I mentioned at 161 above:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_gnz2MV5Zo
Posted by: juliania | Oct 27 2024 4:25 utc | 160
Consortium News Hacked
https://x.com/Consortiumnews/status/1850388657414271096
“Our web host has confirmed seven recent data breaches and now it appears that our site has been totally replaced. We have been hacked.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 27 2024 5:16 utc | 161
Resistance Education: The Responsibility of Intellectuals
https://x.com/timand2037/status/1850399237928042544
“Reason and evidence remain important, but the truth alone cannot ‘set us free.’ Resistance is necessary.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 27 2024 5:53 utc | 162
10 year rises to 4,2% as of Friday close.
Then ; Weekend destabilization in the Levant
Will be interesting to see if we see a flight from or to Treasuries on Monday. Risk Free Assets 🤣
De-Dollarization brings peace
Posted by: Exile | Oct 27 2024 7:21 utc | 163
“In that regard I think the war in the Ukraine is very likely to continue until – at least – vey late January 2025/ early February 2025. Or the Ukraine could have the courage to start negotiations with Russia this year without the approval of the US. We’ll have to wait and see what is going to happen in the coming weeks but this is how I read the tealeaves.
Posted by: WMG | Oct 27 2024 4:02 utc | 160
About a year I ago I predicted Ukrainian capitulation , earliest October 2024 at the latest , February 2025 at the latest-we are on the same page.
10 year rises to 4,2% as of Friday close.
Then ; Weekend destabilization in the Levant
Will be interesting to see if we see a flight from or to Treasuries on Monday. Risk Free Assets 🤣
De-Dollarization brings peace
Posted by: Exile | Oct 27 2024 7:21 utc | 165
They’ll always be an appetite for treasuries due to capped deposit insurance and uninsured deposits.
THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE)
https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/
Due to the seasonality of the fiscal flows ( liquidity ) the yield on the 10 year was always going to rise until end of Oct, early November. Then fall all the way to the New Year. Like picking money off of the street. If trading the 10 year treasury is your thing.
Everybody was worried about how hard Israel was going to hit back and then how hard Iran would hit back and if this included oil facilities etc, etc.
Then the yield on the 10 year could spike to the moon. Those trying to pick money off the street knowing the Yield is going to drop to the new year would be obiliterated.
Currently it is a game of chicken.
The most important paper from Pozsar related to the issue of deposit insurance is a paper entitled “Institutional Cash Pools and the Triffin Dilemma of the U.S. Banking System”.
Pozsar uses the term “institutional cash pools” for those institutions, such as pension funds, university endowments, insurance companies or bank trust departments that invest large monetary sums in order to get a “sufficient” return.
Typically, these entities have a fiduciary and/or trustee relationship to others, which provide legal parameters for how these assets should be managed. Economist Hyman Minsky used the phrase “money manager capitalism” for the same phenomenon. Some assessing this development have replaced references to “money” with “asset” i.e. “asset manager capitalism”. This is meant to reflect that only a small percentage of the assets institutional investors invest in are “money” or have a high degree of “moneyness”.
the point is that there are a wide set of institutions which manage literally trillions of dollars of assets. Just like you or I do, these institutions have to hold a certain amount of their funds in “cash”, in order to manage their investments and meet outflows. Deposit insurance caps are a problem for this wider network of institutions, because these caps are sized relative to most household “cash balance needs”.
As the limits of slicing and spreading growing institutional cash pools in fixed, insured increments across a shrinking number of banks and against binding unsecured exposure limits were reached, institutional cash pools faced two alternatives:
1) Holding uninsured deposits and becoming uninsured, unsecured creditors to banks, or
2) investing in insured deposit alternatives—that is, safe, short-term and liquid instruments—such as short-term trrasuries.
3) a range of privately guaranteed instruments (secured instruments and money funds) issued by the so-called “shadow” banking system.
With only a limited appetite for direct, unsecured exposures to banks through uninsured deposits, however, institutional cash pools opted for the second set of alternatives. Relative to the aggregate volume of institutional cash pools, however, there was an insufficient supply of short-term government-guaranteed instruments to serve as insured deposit alternatives With a shortage of short-term government-guaranteed instruments, institutional cash pools next gravitated—almost by default—toward the other alternative of privately guaranteed instruments. The shadow banking system.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 11:28 utc | 165
Posted by: Exile | Oct 27 2024 7:21 utc | 165
It is the same with households we want to know how much of our savings are insured. Pension funds, university endowments, insurance companies or bank trust departments are no different apart from those hold $ trillions.
Uninsured deposits is that they are “unsecured” i.e. not collateralized. This has two issues.
1) you’re less protected against loss because you’re exposed to all of a bank’s potential losses, rather than simply the value of one asset (the collateral).
2) Worse, you have the threat of illiquidity.
Indeed, if institutional cash pools continue to rely on banks as their credit and liquidity put providers of last resort, the secular rise of uninsured institutional cash pools relative to the size of insured deposits is going to make the U.S. financial system increasingly run-prone, not unlike it used to be prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve and the FDIC. Put another way, the secular rise of cash pools reduces the effectiveness of deposit insurance in promoting system-stability, if depository institutions are wired to serve as insurers of last resort for the world’s uninsured dollar liquidity.
Which brings us to the latest innovation in shadow money- “cash sweep” programs.
Use financial technology to take your large uninsured deposit and break it up into literally hundreds of insured deposits at various banks.
However, If every uninsured depositor used cash sweep type programs, then there would be no “market discipline” i.e. uninsured depositors monitoring bank balance sheets. This would be functionally the same as uncapped deposit insurance, except formally uninsured depositors would pay a fee for that service upfront.
This is a kind of reductio ad absurdum of shadow money which shows that shying away from eliminating deposit insurance won’t provide “liability side discipline”, it will just generate more shadow banking system instability. At best, these “cash sweep” innovations (and other similar devices) will effectively create a consumer unfriendly version of unlimited deposit insurance. The difference will be that the pressure for corresponding asset side regulation will dissipate in a fog of complexity.
They should just eliminate the cap on deposit insurance and let’s have the real policy debate.
They’ll always be a demand for treasuries the safest asset of them all. The real problem is until they eliminate the cap on deposit insurance there are Never enough issued. Why shadow banking appeared in the first place.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 11:44 utc | 166
Posted by: Exile | Oct 27 2024 7:21 utc | 165
The ex head of the US treasury describes it this way.
Here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9ppG4uUWTKU
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 11:56 utc | 167
They’ll always be an appetite for treasuries due to capped deposit insurance and uninsured deposits.
https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 11:28 utc | 167
____________________________________________________________
The big takeaway from that statement is that securities that are backed by the US govt that are held by the US private sector in the US economy are part of said economy’s money supply. Insured bank deposits are the money supply for the peons and govt backed securities are the money supply of the wealthy.
____________________________________________________________
They’ll always be a demand for treasuries the safest asset of them all. The real problem is until they eliminate the cap on deposit insurance there are Never enough issued. Why shadow banking appeared in the first place.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 11:44 utc | 168
____________________________________________________________
The shadow banking system is simply another alternative money supply but its not backed by the govt. As such, it is fragile and subject to bank runs that can wipe out that form of money.
As for the availability of govt backed securities, from 2009-2021 the Federal Reserve purchased $8 trillion worth and the banks bought another $4 trillion. That’s $12 trillion of the money supply of the wealthy removed from circulation.
And then at the beginning of 2022 both the banks and the Fed stopped purchasing those securities and started dumping them back into the money supply with predictable results.
From 2009 to 2021 there was about $16 trillion increase in govt-backed securities outstanding. The Fed and removed $12 tn. Then in the last 2.8 years the volume of new govt-backed securities available to the private sector exploded. About $6 trillion in new securities issued and another $4 trillion from the stash of the Fed and the banks. And the supreme irony is the Fed claims this is how you fight inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1x9JR
Posted by: jinn | Oct 27 2024 15:52 utc | 168
The above: The Fed and removed $12 tn.
should have been written: The Fed and the banks removed $12 tn.
Posted by: jinn | Oct 27 2024 15:58 utc | 169
Assassination of Evo Morales, what is known?
Posted by: guest from franconia | Oct 27 2024 20:08 utc | 170
Posted by: jinn | Oct 27 2024 15:52 utc | 170
“As for the availability of govt backed securities, from 2009-2021 the Federal Reserve purchased $8 trillion worth and the banks bought another $4 trillion. That’s $12 trillion of the money supply of the wealthy removed from circulation.
And then at the beginning of 2022 both the banks and the Fed stopped purchasing those securities and started dumping them back into the money supply with predictable results.” Perhaps I’m misunderstanding what was meant to be said here, but this seems to be wrong. If the Fed had purchased them direct from the treasury, then that would be what’s usually called monetizing the debt. Instead, the banks purchased long-term Treasury securities at face value for cash, Federal Reserve deposits of greater immediate value. The rationale was that the Fed would eventually get either the interest on the long-term securities or sell them when the bond markets were trending higher. The rationale was not that money supply was removed from circulation. Instead the rationale was that the cash for the banks would increase money supply by increasing their liquidity, fostering bank creation of money by making loans. That’s why the Fed also purchased trillions in distressed mortgage backed securities at face value, again increasing the presumed sound asset base for the banks, permitting them to increase money by making more loans. This QE program increased money supply. I can’t even guess what the “predictable results” were supposed to be? It wasn’t a burst of inflation. As far as I can tell, it wasn’t a magic cure for the financial panic and economic recovery either. From what I can tell, MMT, like its Keynesian forebear and this neglects what determines the amount of bank deposits overall, that is, money supply, than interest rates.
“From 2009 to 2021 there was about $16 trillion increase in govt-backed securities outstanding. The Fed and removed $12 tn. Then in the last 2.8 years the volume of new govt-backed securities available to the private sector exploded. About $6 trillion in new securities issued and another $4 trillion from the stash of the Fed and the banks. And the supreme irony is the Fed claims this is how you fight inflation.” The real questions are why QE didn’t generate a burst of inflation back when it began, rather than simply bail out the banking system? And why or even how only government deficits can be inflationary, which seems to be assumed here? And of course how one can ignore any competing explanations such as supply chain disruptions and good old price gouging can be wished away? QE so far as I can did increase asset inflation, favoring the concentration of wealth, including all parts of the economy, including concentration in things like food marketing. Concentration in energy is not just favored by funneling money to big banks I think but on top of that the energy market is very much like the gold market: There is so much state intervention globally that one can be forgiven for using scare quotes around “energy market.”
There is a common feeling, which one can’t really call a theory, that hard money—the sad, bad cases are gold bugs—are cures for all ills. Economic history refutes this in my judgment. But there are people whose response to real world refutations of theory is always to deny the relevance of mere history to what they see as natural law (despite capitalism not even existing as a dominant system anywhere until historically recent times!)
Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 27 2024 21:05 utc | 171
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 27 2024 21:31 utc | 45
All predicted on Aug. 22, 2024
HERE:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/910351-robert-p-balan/6056223-move-was-called-misguided-offloaded-tmfs-and-loaded-up-on-tmvs-short-term-why
By those that understand the monetary system.
“10Yr Yield will rise until late October – early November”
Due to the seasonal liquidity. They have made a fortune on that trade.
” Then begins to fall and falls until the New Year ”
Most people are short but got short way too early due to the rate cut and now getting burned. These guys didn’t who understand it.
They are ready to get short yields now as we approach the end of October start of November.
BUT and there is a big BUT !
HERE:
https://x.com/RobertPBalan1/status/1845445995342987729
War !Depending on how hard Israeli hit Iran and how hard Iran but back. It could have spiked 10 year yields to the moon.
So now we have a big game of chicken playing out.
The Israeli strike was nothing so Iran might not strike back at all. Once the market takes that into account.
Then the 10 year yield should now begin to fall and falls until the New year.
But who is brave enough to short it now ? Will Iran strike back will Israel strike again.
Those who shorted the yield when the rate was cut are panicking. Praying it starts falling.
Those who didn’t and made a fortune as it went higher as predicted . Can wait. See what Israel and Iran are going to do. They are ready to pile in short.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 23:32 utc | 172
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 27 2024 21:31 utc | 45
There’s money lying in the street ready to be picked up by shorting 10 year yield over the next few weeks. Right up until New Year.
But who is brave enough to take it. In this game of chicken.
🙂
Not me, that’s for sure, who knows what Netyanhu might do next and how Iran reacts. Spike Yields to The moon.
The brave will make an absolute fortune if things de- escalate from here on in between Iran and Israel. Those who are seriously under water right now because they went short too early on the rate cut. Will breathe a huge sigh of relief that Israel didn’t hit Iran hard. Will make out of it with a profit after sweating buckets for quite a while now.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 27 2024 23:51 utc | 173
Perhaps I’m misunderstanding what was meant to be said here,
Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 27 2024 21:05 utc | 173
___________________________________________________________________
Yes I think you missed the most important points. Let’s start at the beginning:
SOA said: “They’ll always be an appetite for treasuries due to capped deposit insurance and uninsured deposits.”
I replied: ” The big takeaway from that statement is that securities that are backed by the US govt that are held by the US private sector in the US economy are part of said economy’s money supply. Insured bank deposits are the money supply for the peons and govt backed securities are the money supply of the wealthy. ”
If you don’t get that statement then the rest of what I said is unlikely to mean much.
________________________________________________________________
STJ then says: ” the banks purchased long-term Treasury securities at face value for cash, Federal Reserve deposits of greater immediate value. The rationale was that the Fed would eventually get either the interest on the long-term securities or sell them when the bond markets were trending higher.”
_________________________________________________________________
That is not correct. The Fed is by law not permitted to buy govt-backed securities from the Treasury. The Fed buys them from the private sector thru the banks. The end result is the private sector has $8 Tn more deposits in their bank accounts and the banks have $8 Tn more deposit liabilities.
The Fed has stopped buying and has been selling in the last couple years but the price of bonds are low and not high as you stated. The price of bonds is inversely related to the interest.
The interest is high but the bonds being sold are worth less than when the interest rates were low.
_________________________________________________________________
STJ then says: The rationale was not that money supply was removed from circulation. Instead the rationale was that the cash for the banks would increase money supply by increasing their liquidity, fostering bank creation of money by making loans. That’s why the Fed also purchased trillions in distressed mortgage backed securities at face value, again increasing the presumed sound asset base for the banks, permitting them to increase money by making more loans. This QE program increased money supply.
_________________________________________________________________
First, I did not say the money supply was removed from circulation. I said that $8 Tn in govt-backed securities were removed from circulation. That’s only a part of the money supply. At the same time $8 Tn in deposits were created. In other words, it had no effect on the total money supply.
The reason for doing this was to keep the money supply of the peons (AKA bank deposits) from collapsing. To achieve this the money supply of the wealthy had to be reigned in.
___________________________________________________________________
STJ then says: The real questions are why QE didn’t generate a burst of inflation back when it began,
____________________________________________________________________
It was intended to offset a burst of deflation. The deflation was caused by a sudden collapse in bank deposits and a sudden drop in aggregate demand. Suddenly nobody was borrowing or lending and buying and selling were greatly reduced. Not at all a scenario for inflation.
A collapse in bank deposits had it been allowed to continue would have lead to a 1930’s style depression. Only this time it would have been much worse.
If you don’t grasp what constitutes the money supply and how that money is created, then you will be a lot like many economists who are mystified by how something like QE works.
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 0:17 utc | 174
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 0:17 utc | 176
Excellent understanding Jinn. Superb.
You can see both sides of a balance sheet unlike some of the right wing ideologues on here. Who only see the liability side.
Money supply of the wealthy. Not really when it comes to pension funds. More on that below.
A ‘responsible’ government ensures that all the available productive resources are being fully utilised and that usually requires the government to run fiscal deficits, given the desire of the non-government sector to save overall (and withdraw income earned from the spending stream).
Remember spending equals income and if some of that income is saved by one sector then next period’s income will decline unless there is a counter party (another sector) that is spending more than its income.
The Australian treasury has,just said
” In a little over two years in government … we’ve … delivered the first back-to-back surpluses in two decades, avoided $150bn of inherited debt, and saved tens of billions of dollars in interest costs. ”
Which means
” For two years we have squeezed the liquidity in the non-government sector, which has caused unemployment to rise and GDP growth to head to zero or the negative. ”
That liquidity squeeze has forced the non-government sector to reduce its wealth holdings to meet the tax liabilities they have imposed on it.
And by forcing a reduction in the stock of private wealth, we have also destroyed one source of income that the non-government sector enjoyed.
Now, I don’t want that to be taken as a sign that I support the issuing of government debt and the payment of interest to the non-government sector.
There are distributional issues that are involved – the interest payments tend to reinforce the income inequality because of the underlying wealth inequality.
I wouldn’t issue any debt at all as it is a leftover from the gold stabdard. I’d set the interest rate to zero permanently and just provide granny bonds to households only.
HERE:
https://new-wayland.com/blog/the-only-bonds-we-need-are-granny-bonds/
With the knowledge you clearly have by looking at both sides of a balance sheet. You will understand what is On offer here. Most have no idea.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 28 2024 11:05 utc | 175
The real questions are why QE didn’t generate a burst of inflation back when it began,
Excellent question when the gold bugs said it would cause Weimar or Zimbabwe.
The answer is very simple when you understand the balance sheets. The balance sheets are shown here
HERE:
https://gimms.org.uk/fact-sheets/quantitative-easing/
Why was everybody even suprised . The king and queen of QE which is the EU and Japan were doing QE for years and always failed to hit their 2% inflation target always fell below it.
Once you understand interest rate targeting and how it works
HERE:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n_Bn7_wFaKE&pp=ygUoU2NvdHQgZnVsbHdpbGVyIFFFIGNhbid0IGNhdXNlIGluZmxhdGlvbg%3D%3D
QE was never going to cause inflation.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 28 2024 11:17 utc | 176
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 0:17 utc | 176
” First, I did not say the money supply was removed from circulation. I said that $8 Tn in govt-backed securities were removed from circulation. That’s only a part of the money supply. At the same time $8 Tn in deposits were created. In other words, it had no effect on the total money supply. ”
I was expecting Jeremy to use the fiscal conservative line here when I asked him why do fully sovereign nation states borrow if they issue their own currency. I’ve been at this for 22 years and heard it all.
And say they borrow to take money out of circulation and thus stop inflation. It is a favourite of the Mises institute.
Which is bogus of course like everything that comes out of the Mises institute and Jinn you have described it beautifully.
The money was being saved anyway and not being used. It was sitting in a reserve account at the FED. Which was swapped for US treasuries. The amount of money doesn’t change.
When swapped back from the treasury account at the FED back into the reserve account at the FED it does change due to the interest payments paid. But it still sits in the reserve accounts.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 28 2024 11:39 utc | 177
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 0:17 utc | 176
The keystone of the Mises Institute theory that holds all of it together is built on a myth. So the Mises institute should be completely ignored.
Here’s what they say
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=piQBTy6R0VA&pp=ygUZUm9oYW4gZ3JheSBhbmQgYm9iIG11cnBoeQ%3D%3D
About 1 hour 40 mins in. Which is an excellent 2 hour discussion by the way.
” To create money we should borrow as it is less inflationary than just the government crediting people’s bank accounts.
If we want to spend 100 we should take that 100 from the public give the public 100 in treasuries and then spend that 100. ”
Jinn has already explained why that is false.
1) 100 is being spent into the economy either way and it is the 100 that may or may not cause inflation.
2) The 100 taken from the public wasn’t being spent in the first place as it sat as savings and now instead of sitting as 100 cash in the economy it is sitting as a 100 treasuries in the economy. The balance sheets are virtually unchanged.
So it is not less inflationary and now the public get more interest income from holding a treasury. Could be more inflationary.
The Mises Institute ALWAYS assumes savings doesn’t happen. That the money supply is in motion all the time. Think if it is put in a treasury it won’t be spent into the economy. Without realising the 100 was savings that wasn’t being spent into the economy anyway. Before it was,swapped for a treasury.
We have tried several times to explain it to Bob Murphy but he simply won’t accept it. It destroys many of his theories. So defends a myth to protect his theory.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 28 2024 12:20 utc | 178
Money supply of the wealthy. Not really when it comes to pension funds.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 28 2024 11:05 utc | 177
In the US the low wage earners typically don’t have pension funds. The professional and managerial class does.
It might be argued that bank deposits are the cash used for transactions in the economy and Treasury securities are just savings and thus should not be counted as part of the money supply that affects inflation.
I think its incorrect to characterize Treasury securities as savings. That would imply that bank deposits are the only money supply that is used as a medium of exchange for transactions. If you look at the statistics for Fedwire transfers there are about $4.3 Tn transferred every day and that doesn’t include local money transfers handled thru regional banks. That means that an amount of money equal to all the deposits in all the banks changes hands in less than 4 days continuously. That makes it obvious that the quantity of money used as a medium of exchange is far larger than than what mainstream economist commonly define as the money supply (M2).
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 16:15 utc | 179
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 0:17 utc | 176 When I referred to monetizing the debt, I was explaining—unclearly it appears—the Fed was buying Treasuries form the banks, not buying directly from the Treasury. Hopefully that’s cleared up?
“The big takeaway from that statement is that securities that are backed by the US govt that are held by the US private sector in the US economy are part of said economy’s money supply. Insured bank deposits are the money supply for the peons and govt backed securities are the money supply of the wealthy.” On the first part, my understanding is that the current market value, discounted, of the securities are the asset base of private banks (the Fed itself is more private than public, though) and thus determine the loans they can create—but which count as money. The purchase of securities, both Treasury and mortgage-backed at higher than market value, what I thought QE meant, increases the bookkeeping asset base, theoretically permitting more loans, credit. In this economy, bank loans created by a computer key stroke count as money, i.e., in principle QE expands money supply. (I was afraid for a moment you would tell me the Fed purchased securities at market value which would show me up as not even wrong.) There seems to be a distinction here between Treasury securities in Fed accounts and in private banks where somehow the first is not money, as if the Fed didn’t get interest, but the second is. It almost sounds as if you’re saying the Fed was cutting interest payments to the private banks with QE? That doesn’t seem like a sensible reading and it’s hard to believe you meant that.
It’s the second part where I really get lost in trying to follow you. Minor details first: Insured bank deposits are not just deposits from workers putting in their paychecks, but also firms depositing receipts. Treasury securities and commercial paper of all sorts are indeed more likely to be held by the wealthy. The thing is, so far as money supply is concerned, there are also the loans created by the bank’s computer. That includes auto loans, home mortgages to the peons who hope to pay back with interest, and commercial loans, mostly to rich people, not peons. But these accounts are still money. What I don’t understand at all is why this distinction matters in talking about inflation, or for that matter, deflation. It seems to me the amount of checking account money—which includes bank loans created from fractional reserve banking—matters too. And in speaking of the money supply, it seems to me still the question of whether interest rates targeted by the Fed matter as much as the general rate of profits. QE seems to me to have been about bailing out the banks, not targeting the wealth of nefarious Treasury security rentiers. (I do not see that Keynesians of any sort, nor their MMT descendants, have any theory of profits, surplus value in my terms, either.)
I most certainly do not understand this follow up: “The end result is the private sector has $8 Tn more deposits in their bank accounts and the banks have $8 Tn more deposit liabilities.” I do not even understand who this “private sector” is, if not the member banks of the Federal Reserve system. Nor do I understand who is going to call in these deposits? Nor do I understand how the money paid by the Fed for the Treasury and mortgage-backed securities the Fed holds in its account can be a liability for the bank. Who is going to call this “liability” in? There seems to be some vague notion that if it’s not “real” money, then it must be a liability for someone somehow, but again, it’s hard to believe you meant that.
The rationale was supposed to be that when things got back to normal, they’d sell and get made whole for emergency spending (which I’m still not sure you even agree the Fed did.) The fact that the rationale failed because they’re selling Treasury and mortgage-backed securities when interest rates are high I attribute partly to the fact, as I see it, capitalism is fundamentally contradictory and irrational, and progressively getting even more contradictory and crazier.I suppose your distinction about who owns Treasuries could inspire reading this as a back-handed way of selling cheap to the rich, an indirect class subsidy, but I’m not sure you meant to imply that.
“The reason for doing this was to keep the money supply of the peons (AKA bank deposits) from collapsing. To achieve this the money supply of the wealthy had to be reigned in.” The question here is why FDIC can’t be relied upon to save peon bank deposits? The answer here seems to be, class warfare by the Fed in favor of the peons. I admit I react to this apparent answer with gut skepticism. I think it is better to say, to save the banks, the banks’ stockholders and the rich people who have deposits over the FDIC guarantees. This is at least a reasonable alternative hypothesis to consider, no?
The answer as to why there was no burst of inflation at this egregious enlargement of the money supply (if there was one, rather than a decrease in paying assets for banks holding Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities cruelly deprived on interest payments?) the answer that there was one that just happened to match the magnitude of the financial collapse’s deflation is too close to special pleading for me. It’s all rather ad hoc. I know there are conjunctural factors yes. But it still seems like the real notion is that only government deficits can be inflationary. And frankly it seems to me that the really massive general deflation is subsequent to a massive banking failure where firms have to sell at lower prices because they’re going bankrupt trying to pay their creditors (banks as well as other firms!) off with whatever they can get, regardless of loss. So it still seems like the goalof QE was to save the banks, especially I think in practice the big banks.
“If you don’t get that statement then the rest of what I said is unlikely to mean much.” This is true. I hope you have seen that I have done my best. If you can’t see where I’ve gone wrong, or have to conclude I’m hopeless, thank you for your efforts to enlighten me.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 28 2024 19:35 utc | 180
In this economy, bank loans created by a computer key stroke count as money, i.e., in principle QE expands money supply.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 28 2024 19:35 utc | 182
That’s just gobbledeegook in accounting terms.
Bank loans are created when a non-bank entity asks a bank for a loan and signs a document agreeing to pay the loaned amount back. That document is an asset of the bank for the duration of the loan. In exchange for that new asset the bank creates a new liability of equal amount – those liabilities are called deposits. The deposits are an asset of the private sector and a liability of the banking system. That process creates money and with each bank loan the money supply grows by the amount of the loan. Also, as the principal of the loan is paid back money is destroyed.
From the fall of 2008 to the spring of 2010 bank assets (loans) was steadily declining. The collapse of bank assets was due to both defaults and loan repayments without any new loans being issued. The absence of loans was due to collapse of market value of the collateral for loans which made both credit worthy borrowers and banks hesitant.
Up until 2008, in the US, bank loans tracked pretty close to deposits. Had it not been for QE bank deposits would have followed bank loans down. Both would have continued downward for years in a deflationary spiral. The continued growth of bank deposits broke the deflationary spiral in the consumer markets. With deflation ending loan growth resumed. The goal of QE was to save the economy from going thru another great depression.
You ask about what is the private sector. The private sector is non-bank entities in the economy.
When you go to a bank and withdraw $100 in cash you have not changed the amount of money in the private sector. The transaction destroyed $100 worth of deposits owned by the private sector and added $100 in cash. Before you got the $100 bill it was in the bank and it was not part of the money supply of the private sector. The only part of banking that is counted as part of the private sector is the difference between the banks assets and the banks liabilities. That is the bank capital belonging to the private sector owners. When the bank’s capital falls below a prescribed amount set by law the bank is closed. The private sector owners of the capital then lose it all. The assets and liabilities are transferred to other chartered banks.
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 23:51 utc | 181
I think its incorrect to characterize Treasury securities as savings. That would imply that bank deposits are the only money supply that is used as a medium of exchange for transactions. If you look at the statistics for Fedwire transfers there are about $4.3 Tn transferred every day and that doesn’t include local money transfers handled thru regional banks. That means that an amount of money equal to all the deposits in all the banks changes hands in less than 4 days continuously. That makes it obvious that the quantity of money used as a medium of exchange is far larger than than what mainstream economist commonly define as the money supply (M2).
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 16:15 utc | 181
Doesn’t take away the fact that Treasuries are net financial assets of the non government sector. Thus savings of the non government sectors.
All the $’s that are yet to be used to pay taxes. The $ is just a tax credit.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 30 2024 10:06 utc | 182
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 23:51 utc |
This conversation when concluded is going to arrive at the same conclusion. It just takes a few more steps to get there.
The only bonds we need are Granny bonds
https://new-wayland.com/blog/the-only-bonds-we-need-are-granny-bonds/
You just haven’t got there yet, but with the knowledge you have you will. You might circle around a few times but ultimately you will.
If issuing treasuries are a waste of everybody’s time. How can households save safely ?
Then the next step is get rid of interest rate targeting. The biggest fraud ever carried out in economics.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 30 2024 10:17 utc | 183
Posted by: jinn | Oct 28 2024 23:51 utc |
There was quite a bit of push back 20 years ago. But once people get a complete understanding of the balance sheets it is where they always end up.
This mob
https://the-blindspot.com/about-us/
Suggested Jubilee bonds will fix everything 2 years ago. Same thing only 18 years later than us.
Everybody sees it in the end.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 30 2024 10:33 utc | 184
Doesn’t take away the fact that Treasuries are net financial assets of the non government sector. Thus savings of the non government sectors.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Oct 30 2024 10:06 utc | 184
The concept of saving is that an entity spends less than it earns in an accounting period. Dis-saving is when an entity spends more than its income. So when the US govt sells treasuries to the private sector (exchanges bank dollars for TSY secs) the govt also at the same time spends back the bank dollars and so the private sector now has more money and the govt is dis-saving. If the private sector continues to spend at the same rate as before then yes we could say the govt created nice safe way for the private sector to save and all that happened is the private sector savings went up. But that means those savings are just sitting idle. But the evidence is pretty clear that is not what happens. It is also pretty clear th
Posted by: jinn | Oct 30 2024 14:52 utc | 185