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Israel – Invading Lebanon To Prolong And Expand Its Supremacists War
Is it a trap?
That is the question the Zionists should ask themselves. To me the answer seems to be 'Yes!'
The Zionist entity is invading Lebanon – again. All earlier such invasions have ended in failure. Zionist troops had to retreat under fire. The current invasion is unlikely to see a better fate.
The Izzies, and their U.S. sponsors, are delirious over their perceived success in killing a number of Hizbullah officials including its leader, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.
Don't they understand that Hizbullah has explicitly been built in ways that allow it to sustain such losses? All the murdered officials have already been replaced. If these new ones get killed their replacements are ready.
Before last week the war between the resistance was restricted to an (unequal) exchange of missiles. Israel fired many more than the resistance but not to more effect. The nature of that slow walking war of attrition will now change.
An Israeli ground invasion is exactly what Hizbullah has prepared for. It has readied its ambush sites. Its weapons and the people need to launch them are down in their well prepared bunkers.
The invading forces will be subjected to all kind of surprises. The ground troops are expected to proceed only after heavy preparatory bombing. But the mountainous grounds will allow the defenders to survive the bombing and to attack when and where they are least suspected. I do expect heavy military casualties but mostly on the attacker's side.
This war will likely go on for several months. It could easily extend into a years long and much larger conflict.
The Biden administrations is in full support of the invasion. It may even have urged Netanyahoo to proceed with it:
Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the U.S. would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah — even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes, according to American and Israeli officials.
Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the U.S. agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah in order to convince the group to engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict, the officials told POLITICO.
The Pentagon though is not convinced that this operation will be a success. It fears that, at some point, the U.S. forces will be sent in to rescue the Izzies from a severe defeat.
The Netanyahoo government will try its best to expand the war into Syria or, even further, into an all out war on Iran. It will need the full military support from the U.S. to do so. Its political maneuvering towards the U.S. will thus be done with the intent to further drag it into the war.
Without the full support of the U.S. Israel will fail to become the regional superpower it is striving to be.
With full U.S. support their might be a chance, a small one though, for Israel to win this round.
When the European crusaders tried to colonialize the Levant they built some 37 large castles to hold to their gains. Some 150 years later the crusaders had left. The castles though still exist. They are a reminder that those lands are not easy to take and – moreover – to keep.
I can foresee possible scenarios in which Hezbollah may allow Israeli soldiers – even entire units of soldiers – to enter and penetrate quite deeply into southern Lebanon, especially into its valleys, before Hezbollah and allied forces cut them off from one another and their supply lines. Israeli soldiers will find themselves separated from one another and trapped in places – they will be cauldroned, in effect – where the enemy can fire down on and at them.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Oct 1 2024 11:12 utc | 13
Why even do that when the IDF had very conveniently parked hundreds of units of armor literally touching each other right next to the border, i.e. the absolute perfect arrangement for them to be destroyed all at once with rockets and drones.
Had that been done in Ukraine by either side, all that force would have been a smoldering pile of rusted iron within minutes.
And yet Hezbollah didn’t touch them? We all saw the pictures.
What the hell is going on here?
Then there is the other even bigger such issue:
The Israeli air force is the nation’s premier fighting arm, with well trained pilots and overwhelming technological superiority vs. Hamas, Hezbollah and even Syria. I am a little stunned that there have not been drone attacks on the parked planes and airfields given how small Israel is, and that Hezbollah does not seem to have basic SAM capabilities – we will see.
Posted by: Roger | Oct 1 2024 11:14 utc | 14
Many people expected that on October 7th Hamas would make a beeline to within FPV range the airbases in southern Israel and destroy the planes on the ground with drones. Ukrainians would have done that immediately if they were ever so close to Russian airfields. That didn’t happen though.
Then the next thing everyone expected was Hezbollah flying drone swarms and large missile salvos towards Israeli airfields and destroying the planes on the ground. And the mythical 358 missile doing what it is supposed to, i.e. taking out the US transport planes bringing in the JDAMs that were used to destroy Gaza. Unlike Russia, Israel has absolutely no strategic depth so it is extremely vulnerable to such attacks.
But none of that happened.
What did happen? Gaza was completely leveled, hundreds of thousands were killed, Hezbollah was decapitated, now Lebanon is being leveled too.
Also, one would have expect Hezbollah to sink the whole Israeli fleet. Now it is taking part of the attack on Lebanon too. And it too is not being attacked, although Hezbollah is supposed to have good anti-ship missiles.
One would have thought that after it became clear the Israeli agenda in Gaza is total genocide, there would be nothing left to lose and the full arsenal would finally be unleashed. And yet…
Can anyone explain why?
I see several possibilities:
1) The Resistance is seriously scared the nukes will come out soon. But what difference does that make when you look at what happened to Gaza? You are dead anyway. And Israel does not have sufficiently many nukes to kill all Muslims in the region – enough of their arsenal could be destroyed in a pre-emptive strike, then they might destroy some cities, but there will be a more than a sufficient force left to then march into the now defenseless Israel and slaughter everyone, and put an end to Israel. What is the alternative? The same but with an opposite sign being done by Israel.
2) Iranian elites decided to make some kind of a deal with the West and told everyone to stay in “restraint” mode regardless of them taking more and more serious punches.
3) The Kremlin ordered the Iranians to do it because the Kremlin is under the control of Russian oligarchs and most of those oligarchs are of you know what origin, plus internal Russian security is likely totally compromised along that line in a way that makes Hezbollah look like North Korea or the USSR under Stalin. And the Iranians can’t do anything without Russia’s backing, which they don’t have.
What else is left?
In any case, it is clear where this is going.
It is very different this time – this is not one of the many “regular” wars that flared up repeatedly throughout the decades, i.e. Israel kills a bunch of people, the Arabs fire back a bit, there is some back-and-forth movement, then they go back to “peace”, until the next time. What was done to Gaza is unprecedented and clearly demonstrates a radical shift of intent – from permanent low-intensity war to a final solution, those last two words being very deliberately chosen.
So again, what is there to lose at this point?
P.S. If you were Jewish and cared about Israel, you would be absolutely against what the current government is doing, because first, you would never want to become a blue-on-white star-of-David-wearing version of Nazi Germany as that will eventually degenerate into an absolute hellhole internally, yet this is exactly what is happening right now, and second, as outlined above, even if you shoot your full nuclear load, there will be enough very angry Muslims left to come and hunt you down to the last man. But 95% of Israelis are supporting current policies…
SAM is an usefull defensive tools but are quite expansive and vulnerable targets as demonstrated in 404, not a long lasting asset against a foe with good ISR/EW capability as most systems require a radar tracking and very good mobility. Hence the BUK/S300 used by the kokhols relative longevity compared to patriot complexes : better mobility and semi-autonomous platforms.
Manpads don’t have those vulnerabilities but most of “big bombs” drops are made beyond the usual mandpads range (>30000ft). The classic Igla/Strella/Stinger/Mistral are realy good at shooting mid/low flying heli/planes/cruise missiles. Unfortunately, those are available in limited quantities and are also quite expansive.
Plus there is another way to stop the bombing requiring “cheaper” missiles : bombing the airfields, a plane spend 5~10% of its life in the air at best … everybody does it this way for numerous reasons , even the VKS :).
Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 1 2024 11:46 utc | 27
That doesn’t change the fact that Hezbollah was not provided any air defense. Iran has systems with sufficiently long range that can stop most of the JDAMs. Sure, they are not going to last forever, but at least have them there. No Russian planes are daring to fly over Ukraine for a third year in a row now, even after hundreds of AD systems were destroyed. But Lebanon is completely defenseless…
Posted by: 1917 | Oct 1 2024 12:34 utc | 31
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