Two weeks ago, after successful Zionist attacks on Hizbullah's leadership, I asserted that Hizbullah would be back:
However, Israel can not kill its way to peace.
Hizbullah is a social movement deeply ingrained into the people and society of Lebanon.
Hizbullah has a social society side which takes care for and aliments large parts of its constituency.
It also has a military side which is very well organized, disciplined and which has many hidden assets ready to be activated when needed. Following the Shia creed Hizbullah's soldiers are ready and willing to die for their cause.
In 1982 Israel assassinated Hizbullah chief Musawi. His replacement, Hassan Nasrallah, proved to be the more formidable enemy who organized resistance movements that span the whole region. Anyone following Nasrallah will also be younger, less risk avers and a more formidable enemy.
The same holds for the replacements of lower level casualties.
The Zionist colonist will rue the consequences of their deeds.
Today Hizbullah's operation room warned the Zionists in Haifa to empty the city:
Ali Hashem @alihashem_tv – 9:44 UTC · Oct 12, 2024
Hezbollah’s operations room statement, warning residents of Haifa and several other northern cities up to Tiberias to evacuate homes near military installations, signals an expansion of the displacement zone for Israel from 5 km to over 30 km.
This could force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to evacuate at least 250,000 people, rather than the initial 100,000. While predicting new rules of engagement is difficult, this could create a new dynamic, where more attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs triggers more Hezbollah rocket strikes deep into northern Israel.
…
Nearly three weeks after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the party has absorbed the blow and elevated its operations to a new level. Its leadership has gone unseen, likely utilizing alternative communication methods that have enabled a seamless transition. Despite the loss, Hezbollah continues to launch attacks and maintain supply lines to the front, allowing for further escalation, all while seeking a diplomatic solution to the conflict through the Speaker of Parliament.
and
Sina Toossi @SinaToossi – 15:37 UTC · Oct 12, 2024
🧵Hezbollah has intensified rocket and missile strikes on northern Israel over the past week.
Today, it called for civilians to evacuate Haifa, Tiberias, & other areas, claiming that Israeli military operations in residential zones make them legitimate targets.
2/ Significantly, Hezbollah’s statement also said, "Northern occupied Palestine will remain empty of settlers until the war against Gaza and Lebanon ends."
This reflects its original position of rejecting a ceasefire with Israel that is not linked to ending the Gaza war.
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8/ The head of Hezbollah's media office Mohammad Afif also asserted today:"To the enemy, I say: You have only seen a fraction of our strikes.
"On the ground, especially on the southern front, the resistance is in good shape.
"It manages its firing fields and the timing of its volleys in accordance with its field assessment and the objective conditions.
"Its strategic reserves are intact.
"Thousands of Karbala-inspired martyrdom fighters are in peak readiness and fully prepared to fight fiercely in revenge for our sacred martyr.
"…The resistance will not engage in static defense but rather a flexible defense that adapts to the requirements of the front and the conditions of each area.
"It will set ambushes, plant explosives, carry out flanking maneuvers, and shift flexibly from defense to offense, inflicting heavy losses, which the enemy has begun to acknowledge gradually, forcing them repeatedly to retreat and reassess the front, contrary to their calculations and estimates.
"…We are not in 1982 when Israeli tanks reached Beirut, altering the political equations and tearing the social fabric of Lebanon. We are more in the early days of the July War, when the same people rushed to declare Hezbollah’s defeat, only to later realize their mistake and return to their senses by the end of the war, with Hezbollah emerging victorious.
"Our absolute priority now is to defeat the enemy and force it to cease its aggression by force."
That is part of the recent news from which Elijah Magnier, who knows Hizbullah better than any other western journalist, concludes:
I am beginning to think that #Israel is reluctant to invade #Lebanon.
Hezbollah has lost 80% of the first line of command, the operations room and the secretary general, yet it has managed to regain control beautifully. No army in the world can withstand the first blow.
Now Hezbollah has regained control, it has replenished its positions, its logistics are in top condition, it has prevented four divisions from entering Lebanon, it has absorbed the displaced persons, it has discovered the source of the leakage, and it is threatening to force more Israeli displaced persons. With every day that passes, Hezbollah shows that it has regained its professionalism in directing the war and taking the initiative.
The Zionists are reluctant to go further than a few meter into Lebanon because their ground forces are taking high losses. A full ground attack would be extremely costly.
The Zionist entity is also reluctant to attack Iran. Its security cabinet could not agree on an appropriate way to hit back for Iran's recent missile attack with some 180 ballistic missiles. That attack did real damage on two military air ports. It also hit other strategic assets.
Last night the Islamic Republic Iran Boradcasting [IRIB] organization announced:
iranmilitaryvlog @irmilitaryvlog – 9:06 UTC · Oct 12, 2024
IRIB yesterday revealed that Iran's armed forces managed to knock out a transportable Raytheon long-range, very high-altitude X-band radar positioned near the 'Nevatim' airbase belonging to the THAAD system without detection before raining down ballistic missiles on their target.
Quote: H. E. Mehr | حمید ابراهیمی مهر @Hemehr … Embedded video
The THAAD AN/TPY-2 transportable radar directs high attitude missile defenses. There is, as far as is known, only one in Israel. such a radar system, if bought now, costs about $300 million. The one in the Negev desert is under U.S. control.
If, as IRIB claims, that radar was indeed hit, the strike has blown a huge hole into Israel's missile defenses. This would explain the reluctance in the security cabinet to go for on all out attack on Iran. Any Iranian response, which would come as assured as tomorrows sun rise, would hit Israel extremely hard.