|
Zelenski’s U.S. Trip Ends In Failure
The (former) Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelinski has failed. During his current travel in the U.S. his 'victory plan', a wishlist designed to drag the U.S. and NATO deeper into the war, did not gain support.
Even his most urgent request, to allow Ukraine to use supplied long range missiles for long-range strikes within Russia, has been rejected.
To justify its decision the Biden administration even 'leaked' an intelligence assessment which warned of allowing such:
Intelligence agencies concluded that granting Ukraine’s request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia could prompt forceful retaliation while not fundamentally changing the course of the war.
A promise of another US$8 billion gift in military supplies was offered as a consolation gift. But the package does not include what the Ukrainian military needs or wants:
In the absence of looser restrictions to let Kyiv use Western missiles, the White House has shipped the Joint Standoff Weapon (Jsow), a precision-guided glide bomb with a range of about 80 miles, for the first time.
A statement by Mr Biden said the F-16-launched weapon would “enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities”.
…
Even if Jsow is allowed to be dropped on Russia — Mr Biden’s statement does not make reference to the possibility — it does not have the range to cause significant harm.
Because of the density of Moscow’s air defences near the front line, Ukrainian F-16s would need to drop the bombs from a safe distance, effectively meaning Jsow would be able to hit targets just 25 miles inside Russia.
Aside from a rather small amount for additional ammunition most of the $8 billion will be in payments to U.S. companies for the production of weapons which Ukraine will only receive years from now.
In her meeting with Zelenski Vice-President Kamala Harris urged to continue the war:
Ms. Harris, who has met with Mr. Zelensky a half-dozen times since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, said at the White House on Thursday that she would “ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” adding that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “could end the war tomorrow.”
Ms. Harris said that those who would have Ukraine trade territory for peace were supporting “proposals of surrender” — a dig at former President Donald J. Trump, her Republican opponent, and his skepticism of aid for Kyiv.
She added that the fight in Ukraine “matters to the people of America,” and framed the conflict as one that the American people should recognize as highly consequential.
“The most important moments in our history have come when we stood up to aggressors like Putin,” Ms. Harris said, warning that the Russian leader would not stop with Ukraine, and would possibly even look into encroaching on NATO territory, if he succeeds in his campaign.
The Republicans have shunned Zelenski over his intervention in the upcoming election:
They were angered by Zelensky's visit to an arms factory in Biden's hometown of Scranton with top Democrats. Zelensky will meet Trump on Friday despite earlier reports that the meeting had been cancelled.
Zelensky's visit to the ammunition factory in the key swing state of Pennsylvania was labelled by leading Republicans as a partisan campaign event.
In a public letter, speaker of the US House Mike Johnson said the visit was "designed to help Democrats" and claimed it amounted to "election interference".
The Republican candidate Donald Trump only agreed to meet Zelenski after the later begged him in a letter (which Trump immediately published). He had previously lambasted Zelenski for his unwillingness to negotiate a settlement with Russia:
Republican rival for the presidency, Donald Trump, mocked Zelensky at a campaign event as the "greatest salesman on Earth" and accused him of refusing to "make a deal" with Moscow.
Earlier this week, Trump also praised Russia's military capabilities, saying: "They beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon – that’s what they do, they fight."
They indeed do. The news from the battlefield are not in Ukraine's favor.
Russian forces have surrounded Ugledar, a mining city that constituted a Ukrainian bulwark in its south eastern defense line. Whatever is left of the 72nd Ukrainian brigade has been trapped in the city after its earlier requests for evacuation had been denied.
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast is also coming to an end. The Ukrainian command had to pull back its largely destroyed 82nd brigade that had led the incursion. It was replaced with a Territorial Defense Brigade which lacks the training and will for a longer fight.
All over the eastern front Ukrainian troops are in retreat. They are in disarray and lack the capacity to hold a line (archived):
Ukraine’s troops and their commanders are growing concerned over manpower problems, particularly the quality of new recruits and the speed at which they are injured or killed in combat.
…
Along the front in Donetsk, four commanders, a deputy commander and nearly a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times that the new conscripts lack basic combat skills, motivation and often abandon their positions when they come under fire.
The commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation.
The Ukrainian frontline is literarily running out of capable soldiers:
Seasoned soldiers “are being killed off too quickly”, said another commander on the eastern front, only to be replaced by mostly older men without experience and in worse physical shape.
Age is a key concern — the average person in Ukraine’s military is 45. Of about 30 infantry troops in a unit, said the deputy commander of the 72nd brigade, on average half were in their mid-40s, only five were under 30 and the rest were 50 or older.
“As infantry, you need to run, you need to be strong, you need to carry heavy equipment,” he added. “It’s hard to do that if you aren’t young.”
There is no way for Ukraine to sustain the war for much longer. It will have to negotiate with Russia even while it is retreating everywhere.
The Biden administration will want to prevent a grueling defeat in Ukraine before the November election. But it has given Ukraine nothing to sustain for much longer than a few months from there.
Zelenski can see the writing on the wall. To end the war he will have to agree to give up on a large part of former Ukrainian proper. But the fascists who indirectly rule in Ukraine do not condone that and will give him little room to move forward.
What is Zelenksi going to do now when it is obvious that there is not other way out?
Poroshenko prepares for Zelensky’s election, by Sergey Mirkin, journalist, Donetsk, for VZGLYAD. 09.27.2024.
Perhaps Zelensky’s victory plan is designed to be rejected in Washington, which will give the ZE team the opportunity to carry out a multi-move combination that will result in holding presidential elections without lifting martial law.
Representatives of the European Solidarity party (the political force of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko) made several statements that the team of the head of the Maidan regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, is preparing for the presidential elections.
Thus, Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko (included by Rosfinmonitoring in the list of extremists and terrorists) stated that, according to his information, Zelensky’s deputy head of office Viktor Mykyta secretly met with regional representatives of the Servant of the People party (Zelensky’s political force) and discussed with them issues of the electoral process and preparation for the elections. Another Poroshenko supporter, former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko, is confident that the so-called plan for Zelensky’s victory is calculated on the fact that he will not be approved in Washington, and this will give the ZE team the opportunity to carry out a multi-move combination, the result of which will be the holding of presidential elections without the lifting of martial law, which will allow Zelensky’s supporters to control the entire process.
Why did Poroshenko’s supporters raise the topic of elections now? There are several versions.
Poroshenko decided to raise the issue of elections before his trip to Washington. Moreover, journalists and experts in the US have written more than once that Zelensky, by refusing to hold elections, is violating the principles of democracy, and cited the case when in the 1950s the US held presidential elections despite the fact that the country was waging war in Korea. Perhaps the representatives of “European Solidarity” are following orders from certain forces in the West who want to ensure that elections are held in Ukraine. For what purpose?
If Zelensky announces presidential elections in Ukraine before the US elections, this will be a plus for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, her supporters will be able to claim that Ukraine is a democratic country, and its president is a champion of Western values, and not a dictator at all, because he decided to hold elections in a war, so the US gave Ukraine so many billions for a reason. In addition, it seems that there are forces in the West that believe that Zelensky and his gray cardinal Andriy Yermak should be removed from power, but they want to do this within the law. And therefore they want elections to be held in Ukraine – in the hope that Zelensky will lose power.
In Washington, there will probably be bargaining over the “Zelensky plan” and one of the White House’s demands may be holding elections in exchange for permission to strike Western missiles deep into Russia.
The second version: Poroshenko is sure, and maybe even knows, that Zelensky’s “victory plan”, despite the public, diplomatic blackmail of the head of the Maidan regime, will be rejected.
And Zelensky will not receive permission to strike with Western systems deep into Russia. Thus, according to the LBC radio station, Washington has not made a decision whether to give consent to strike deep into Russia or not. They are afraid of the possible negative impact of this step on Harris’s election chances. Apparently, this is a veiled way of talking about concerns about a possible escalation of relations with Russia. And if a major war with an unpredictable outcome looms on the horizon, this could really destroy Harris’s chances of becoming president.
If Washington refuses to implement Zelensky’s plan, it will hit his and his team’s positions hard.
Perhaps the latest reshuffle in the Ukrainian government is connected to this: Yermak is preparing for the Maidan Ukraine to be in turmoil. Biden’s refusal to support Zelensky’s plan will mean for the Ukrainian elite that the ZE team has lost Washington’s favor, which means it must be removed from power. But how? The best way is to force them to hold presidential elections. Poroshenko will most likely want to take up the “mace” for the second time, so his people are starting to pedal the topic of elections in advance and, possibly, are preparing for them. Because when Zelensky returns from Washington empty-handed, everyone will start talking about the elections: the Sorosites, the supporters of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and, it seems, some of the military who are oriented toward the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny.
The third version is that Lutsenko is generally right and everything that is happening is a plan by Zelensky, or more precisely, Yermak and the British intelligence services, to retain power by the ZE team.
According to Lutsenko, Zelensky specifically made the plan so that Washington would reject it. After which Zelensky will declare that the West has betrayed Ukraine, and he has no other choice but to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia to save the state and citizens. Then negotiations will begin, during which a ceasefire agreement will be reached. After that, Zelensky will begin to position himself as the president of peace and will hold elections, but without lifting martial law, which will allow his office to influence the electoral process, as a result of which he will again become president.
Theoretically, one can expect such a multi-move from Yermak, but this plan is very risky. Accusing the West of betraying Ukraine means reducing Harris’s chances of becoming president, and the American Democrats will not forgive the Zelensky regime for this.
Of course, one can assume that Yermak has teamed up with another presidential contender, Donald Trump, and the ZE team will play for his victory. But the risk is very high. And while Biden is in power, American intelligence agencies will begin to act against Zelensky. In addition, the start of negotiations with Russia could give rise to riots by Ukrainian Nazis, some veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the army opposition in the Ukrainian army may consider this their chance to carry out a coup d’etat. After all, Zelensky will no longer have a “roof” in the form of the White House.
Finally, where are the guarantees that Russia will agree to a ceasefire before a full peace agreement is signed?
But according to Lutsenko, Zelensky wants to hold elections after the cessation of hostilities, but before the legal termination of the SVO. Such a plan cannot be called absolutely unrealistic, but it is too risky for Yermak and Zelensky. Although it cannot be ruled out that something similar was planned as one of the scenarios for retaining power in the ZE team.
Posted by: grid5 | Sep 27 2024 13:58 utc | 58
|
